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2014 July

93L Fighting Dry Air, But Could be a Tropical Depression

An area of disturbed weather located near 11°N, 52°W at 8 am EDT Thursday, about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (93L), has maintained a well-organized surface circulation and has now developed enough heavy thunderstorms to potentially be classified as a tropical depression later today.

JeffMasters, • 1:47 PM GMT on July 31, 2014

Little Change to 93L

An area of disturbed weather located near 9°N, 45°W at 8 am EDT Wednesday, about 1150 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (93L), has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Thursday, but is struggling with high wind shear today. Visible satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed 93L had a well-defined surface circulation and some low-level spiral bands. However, infrared satellite images showed heavy thunderstorm activity was very limited, and the storm is fighting high wind shear of about 20 knots.

JeffMasters, • 2:47 PM GMT on July 30, 2014

93L in Middle Atlantic Close to Tropical Depression Status

An area of disturbed weather about 1600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, (93L), has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday, but is struggling with high wind shear today. Visible satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed improved organization to 93L with more spin and some low-level spiral bands beginning to form, but infrared satellite images showed that the system's heavy thunderstorm activity had diminished somewhat since Monday.

JeffMasters, • 2:22 PM GMT on July 29, 2014

93L in Eastern Atlantic Growing More Organized

An area of disturbed weather located near 10°N, 33°W at 8 am EDT Monday, about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, was designated Invest 93L by NHC early Monday morning. This disturbance is a more serious threat than Tropical Depression Two of last week, and has the potential to develop into a strong tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday.

JeffMasters, • 2:43 PM GMT on July 28, 2014

Disturbance off the Coast of Africa a Potential Threat to the Lesser Antilles

An area of disturbed weather near 11°N, 31°W, about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it heads west at 10 - 15 mph towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. Visible satellite loops on Sunday morning showed that the disturbance had only a minor amount of spin, and the system's heavy thunderstorm activity was limited.

JeffMasters, • 5:57 PM GMT on July 27, 2014

The Record Quiet Hurricane Season of 1914: Could it Happen Again in 2014?

This year marks the 100th anniversary of the slowest Atlantic hurricane season on record--1914, which had no hurricanes and only one tropical storm. Is it possible that the 2014 hurricane season could match 1914 for the lowest activity ever recorded, with Hurricane Arthur ending up as our only named storm? I think that is highly unlikely, even though the atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Atlantic are looking hostile for development for the coming two weeks.

JeffMasters, • 4:08 PM GMT on July 25, 2014

June 2014: Earth's 3rd Consecutive Warmest Month on Record

June 2014 was Earth's warmest June since records began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA rated June 2014 a bit cooler: the 3rd warmest. According to NOAA, the planet has now had three back-to-back warmest months on record--April, May and June of 2014. Global ocean temperatures during June 2014 had the greatest departure from average of any month in recorded history.

JeffMasters, • 5:22 AM GMT on July 24, 2014

Atlantic Tropical Depression #2 Weakens to TROF as it Heads for Caribbean

JeffMasters, • 5:17 PM GMT on July 23, 2014

MATMO Approaches Taiwan Coast as Atlantic TD#2 continues Westward

JeffMasters, • 3:42 PM GMT on July 22, 2014

Atlantic Invest 92L Likely Depression

JeffMasters, • 8:08 PM GMT on July 21, 2014

Atlantic ‘Wakes-Up’ / Typhoon Matmo Heads For Taiwan

JeffMasters, • 3:40 PM GMT on July 21, 2014


JeffMasters, • 11:55 PM GMT on July 20, 2014


JeffMasters, • 6:20 PM GMT on July 19, 2014

Super Typhoon Rammasun Makes Landfall – Next Up Tropical Storm Matmo

JeffMasters, • 5:49 PM GMT on July 18, 2014

Rammasun Nears South China – Atlantic Remains ‘Quiet’ As Record Cold / Heat Affect US

JeffMasters, • 5:50 PM GMT on July 17, 2014

Quiet in the Atlantic; Typhoon Rammasun Kills 12 in the Philippines

JeffMasters, • 3:33 PM GMT on July 16, 2014

Category 3 Typhoon Rammasun hits the Philippines

Category 3 Typhoon Rammasun powered ashore in the Philippines in the Bicol Region of Luzon Island near 5 am EDT on Tuesday, bringing sustained winds near 125 mph and torrential rains. Rammasun was the first typhoon to strike the Philippines since devastating Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013. Rammasun's eye passed just north of Samar Island where Haiyan initially made landfall, and passed just north of Legaspi on Luzon, dropping the pressure to 966 mb near 10 UTC.

JeffMasters, • 2:43 PM GMT on July 15, 2014

Philippines' First Typhoon Since Haiyan Approaching

The Philippines Islands are bracing for the impact of Typhoon Rammasun, the islands' first typhoon since the devastating strike by Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013. Haiyan was the deadliest and most expensive natural disaster in Philippines history. Fortunately, Rammasun is much weaker--a mere Category 1 storm, with top winds of 85 mph--a far cry from the incredible 195 mph sustained winds of Haiyan at its peak.

JeffMasters, • 3:20 PM GMT on July 14, 2014

Upgraded HWRF and GFDL Hurricane Models Excelled During Hurricane Arthur

There have been major upgrades this year to the two operational National Weather Service (NWS) regional hurricane prediction systems, the GFDL and HWRF models. Both models did well for track and intensity forecasts for Hurricane Arthur, and the average intensity errors wer comparable to the other two top NWS intensity prediction models (LGEM and DSHIPS.)

JeffMasters, • 12:04 PM GMT on July 11, 2014

Tropical Storm Neoguri Hits Japan; NOAA Holds Summer El Niño Odds at 70%

Tropical Storm Neoguri made landfall near the city of Akune in southwest Japan's Kagoshima Prefecture on the island of Kyushu just before 7 a.m. Japanese time Thursday. Once a mighty super typhoon with 155 mph winds, the Japan Meteorological Agency estimated that Neoguri weakened to maximum 10-minute sustained winds of 60 mph at landfall.

JeffMasters, • 1:50 PM GMT on July 10, 2014

Neoguri Weakens to a Tropical Storm, Brings Torrential Rains to Japan

Tropical Storm Neoguri continues its steady weakening trend as it closes in on the large southern Japanese island of Kyushu. Landfall of the center is expected to occur near 6 am local time on Thursday. Once a mighty super typhoon with 155 mph winds, Neoguri has now weakened to a tropical storm with 70 mph winds as of 11 am EDT on Wednesday. Some mountainous areas of southern Japan are predicted to receive 20 - 28" of rain from Neoguri. With soils already saturated from a week of heavy rains prior to Neoguri's arrival, damaging flooding is expected.

JeffMasters, • 2:32 PM GMT on July 09, 2014

Typhoon Neoguri Weakens to Category 3, But Still a Major Flood Threat to Japan

The outer spiral bands of Typhoon Neoguri are lashing the large southern Japanese island of Kyushu as the storm heads north at 15 mph towards Japan. Despite seemingly favorable conditions for intensification on Monday and Tuesday morning, Neoguri mysteriously weakened from a 155 mph Super Typhoon to a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds in the 30 hours ending at 11 am EDT Tuesday morning.

JeffMasters, • 3:37 PM GMT on July 08, 2014

Super Typhoon Neoguri Lashing Okinawa, Headed for Japan

The outer spiral bands of Super Typhoon Neoguri are pounding the Japanese Ryuku Islands, which include Okinawa, as the mighty storm heads north-northwest at 12 mph towards Japan. At 8 pm local time on Monday, Miyako-jima reported sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 53 mph. On Sunday, Neoguri strengthened to 155 mph winds, crossing the 150 mph threshold needed to be labeled a Super Typhoon. As of 8 am EDT on Monday, the typhoon had weaker slightly to 150 mph winds

JeffMasters, • 4:01 PM GMT on July 07, 2014

Category 4 Typhoon Neoguri Headed Towards Japan

In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Neoguri has strengthened into a dangerous Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds this Sunday morning, and is headed west-northwest at 12 mph towards a Tuesday brush with Okinawa in Japan's Ryukyu island chain. Satellite images show a huge and well-organized system, with a prominent eye, and very intense eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

JeffMasters, • 4:51 PM GMT on July 06, 2014

Arthur Hits Nova Scotia, Becomes Post-Tropical; Cat 4 Typhoon Neoguri Forms

Hurricane Arthur is no more. Its circulation has been absorbed by a trough of low pressure over the Canadian Maritime provinces after Arthur made landfall in Nova Scotia on Saturday morning near 10 am EDT as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. On Friday night, Arthur skirted Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, bringing a swath of 3 - 5" of rain across Southeast Massachusetts and Eastern Maine. Top winds at Nantucket were 50 mph, gusting to 59 mph, at 9:53 pm EDT.

JeffMasters, • 3:23 PM GMT on July 05, 2014

Hurricane Arthur Pounds North Carolina, Heads for Nova Scotia

Hurricane Arthur has weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds on Friday morning, after delivering a direct hit to the barrier islands of eastern North Carolina on Thursday night. Officially, Arthur made landfall at Shackleford Banks between Cape Lookout and Beaufort, North Carolina at 11:15 pm EDT July 3, 2014 as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. It was the first Category 2 hurricane to make U.S. landfall since Hurricane Ike of 2008

JeffMasters, • 5:20 PM GMT on July 04, 2014

Hurricane Arthur Shifts Left, Aims for a DIrect Hit in Eastern North Carolina

Hurricane Arthur has shifted to the left inside its cone of track uncertainty, and is poised to deliver a direct hit to the barrier islands of eastern North Carolina on Thursday night and Friday morning. The hurricane's 90 mph winds and 979 mb pressure from the 5 pm EDT Thursday NHC advisory make Arthur as strong as the strongest hurricane of 2013, Hurricane Humberto.

JeffMasters, • 9:25 PM GMT on July 03, 2014

Hurricane Arthur Intensifying as it Approaches North Carolina

Hurricane warnings are flying for most of the North Carolina coast as Hurricane Arthur accelerates north-northeastwards. Arthur is the first Atlantic July hurricane since Hurricane Alex of 2010, and comes over a month prior to the typical August 10 arrival of the season's first hurricane. Heavy rains from the intensifying hurricane have already begun this morning along the southern North Carolina coast at Wilmington,

JeffMasters, • 1:34 PM GMT on July 03, 2014

Arthur Nears Hurricane Strength

Tropical Storm Arthur has formed a large, 30-mile diameter eye, and appears destined to be a hurricane by early Thursday morning, as the storm heads towards a rendezvous with the North Carolina coast on Friday. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was in the storm Wednesday afternoon, and measured top surface winds of about 70 mph with their SFMR instrument. Arthur's central pressure was 995 mb at 3:10 pm EDT, then dropped to 992 mb during their second eye penetration an hour later, at 4:04 pm.

JeffMasters, • 9:03 PM GMT on July 02, 2014

Tropical Storm Warnings for North Carolina as Arthur Heads North

Tropical Storm warnings are up for the coast of North Carolina as Tropical Storm Arthur heads north at 7 mph. The heaviest weather associated with Arthur is on its east and south sides, and a buoy 128 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida, on Arthur's east side, recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 60 mph at 6:50 am EDT on Wednesday. Significant wave heights at the buoy were an impressive 17.4'.

JeffMasters, • 3:27 PM GMT on July 02, 2014

Which Intensity Model Should You Trust for Tropical Storm Arthur?

The Atlantic's first storm of 2014 is here, as Tropical Storm Arthur was named at 11 am EDT Tuesday by NHC. Arthur's formation date of July 1 comes a week before the typical July 8 appearance of the Atlantic's first named storm, but is the latest the first named storm of the season has appeared since 2009, when Tropical Storm Ana formed on August 12.

JeffMasters, • 6:55 PM GMT on July 01, 2014

Tropical Depression One Forms off the Coast of East Florida

The Atlantic's first tropical depression of 2014 is here, as Tropical Depression One finally formed at 11 pm EDT Monday evening. TD 1 was drifting southwest at 2 mph towards the east coast of Central Florida early Tuesday morning. Bands of heavy rain from TD 1 were affecting the Northwest Bahamas, and sustained winds of 33 mph gusting to 36 mph were observed at Settlement Point in the Northwest Bahama Islands at 2 am EDT.

JeffMasters, • 7:36 AM GMT on July 01, 2014