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Quiet in the Atlantic; Typhoon Rammasun Kills 12 in the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:33 PM GMT on July 16, 2014

Category 2 Typhoon Rammasun hit the Philippines’ capital city of Manila, where 12 million people live, near 6 pm EDT Tuesday night (22 UTC). The center of the typhoon passed within 40 miles of the city, and had top winds rated at 105 mph by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) at the time. This makes Rammasun one of the most powerful typhoons ever to directly affect Manila; according to NOAA's historical hurricane web page, the strongest typhoon ever to make a direct hit on Manila was Typhoon Angela of 1995, which was a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 when it passed over the city (sustained winds of 90 - 105 mph, according to JTWC's annual report). Fortunately, Rammasun’s eyewall collapsed as it approached Manila, and top winds at the Manila airport reached only 20 mph. However, Rammasun is being blamed for twelve deaths elsewhere in the Philippines. The typhoon came ashore in the Philippines in the Bicol Region of Luzon Island near 5 am EDT on Tuesday, as a Category 3 storm with sustained winds near 125 mph. Rammasun was the first typhoon to strike the Philippines since devastating Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013, which left over 7,300 people dead or missing. Rammasun's eye passed just north of Samar Island where Haiyan initially made landfall, and brought sustained winds of 40 mph to Haiyan's ground zero, the city of Guiuan. The high winds blew down many of the tents of the people whose homes were destroyed in Tacloban after Super Typhoon Haiyan, but Rammasun’s winds and flooding were not extreme there, and most of the people who evacuated to temporary shelters during the typhoon have now returned.


Figure 1. In this MODIS image from 02:40 UTC July 16, 2014, Category 1 Typhoon Rammasun is looking very disorganized after passing through the Philippine Islands. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Tracks of all typhoons to pass within 75 miles of the Philippines’ capital city of Manila, according to NOAA's historical hurricane web page. The strongest typhoon ever to make a direct hit on Manila was Typhoon Angela of 1995, which was a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 when it passed over the city (sustained winds of 90 - 105 mph, according to JTWC's annual report).

Rammasun will have the opportunity to re-strengthen over the South China Sea before making a second landfall in China near Hainan Island on Friday. Given the typhoon’s current state of disorganization, it will take at least a day for it to take advantage of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and very warm water temperatures and regain Category 2 strength. I don’t think the storm has time to reach Category 3 strength, as the official JTWC forecast is calling for. Our two top track models, the GFS and European, predict a landfall in China between 03 - 9 UTC on Friday. Rammasun, which has a different name, "Glenda", in the Philippines, is the Siamese word for thunder god.

ATLANTIC REMAINS QUIET - FOR NOW

The tropical Atlantic Basin remains rather quiet, as relatively dry air dominates the CARIB eastward to the west African Coast. One reasonably discernible Tropical Wave located from near 8N / 31W to 14N / 29W is west bound at about 20Kt. The 850mb Vorticity analysis shows some modest tendency for ‘spinning’ with isolated convection associated with this disturbance. However, the tropical wave appears to be inter-twined with the ITCZ which is likely enhancing what little convection there is.

All of the more reliable global models, along with some of the more experimental forecast tools that rely on the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and CCKW (Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves) are not forecasting any tropical cyclone spin-ups during the next 10-14 days, and none is expected. (I’ll have bit more information on how CCKW may influence Tropical Cyclone formation and deepening this weekend.)



Fig. 3 There are only a couple easily discernible Tropical Waves – with only the one in the far eastern Atlantic of even minimal interest.



Fig. 4 There is a significant Vorticity Max associated with the wave in the far eastern Atlantic, but it is tracking due west at a very low latitude, and has almost no chance of enhancing the probability that this wave will develop as it tracks westward.



Fig. 5 For much of the summer, wind shear in the CARIB has been very high, but the shear has begun to ease a bit over the past day or two, and there are indications this shear will continue to fall off during the next 1-2 weeks.

Welcome Steve Gregory back!
Today's post was written with the help of meteorologist Steve Gregory, who recently retired as a weather expert for the commodities industry. Steve is also a hurricane expert, and made over 200 posts as a wunderground blogger during the epic hurricane season of 2005. Steve will make several posts in my blog during the coming week, as I will be taking some vacation.

Jeff Masters and Steve Gregory

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments



30% in yellow in 120 hours from now!
You need a pond where you take your labs so they can cool off between runs.
Quoting 487. Grothar:

Also, some indication of activity in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This seems very reasonable.




rea·son·a·ble (rz-n-bl)
adj.
1. Capable of reasoning; rational: a reasonable person.
2. Governed by or being in accordance with reason or sound thinking: a reasonable solution to the problem.
3. Being within the bounds of common sense: arrive home at a reasonable hour.
4. Not excessive or extreme; fair: reasonable prices.

You are very reasonable Gro!
Quoting 498. Patrap:

BREAKING:

Reuters from Interfax

A Maylasian Airliner has crashed in the Ukraine near the Russian Border.

The Flight was en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur


Boeing 777.
Quoting 495. rmbjoe1954:



Doing well as I hope you are also. That Bermuda High looks potent. Thankfully while the oven is hot there is no bun to to bring to our shores- at the moment.


Well, for your sake, I hope you get all the buns you need. There should be some activity in the Gulf. At least you're all not as bad as you were. We watched a show last night on the California drought. It doesn't look like any break soon.
Quoting 494. Tornado6042008X:


I assume you mean what is east of Florida?



Actually I was referring to Mrs. Grothar.
Really? Already?...

...Significant weather advisory for northeastern inland Broward County...north central Metro Broward County...southeastern coastal Palm Beach County...southern Metro Palm Beach County and southeastern inland Palm Beach County...

* until 1215 PM EDT

* at 1140 am EDT...National Weather Service meteorologists detected a strong thunderstorm over Loxahatchee NWR...or 11 miles west of Boynton Beach...moving east at 35 mph.

The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches...and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm passes.

* The storm will affect... Boca Raton...Boynton Beach...Delray Beach...Lake Worth...Palm Beach...Highland Beach...Ocean Ridge...Greenacres...Parkland...Palm Springs.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Torrential rainfall can be expected...causing temporary ponding on some roads and minor flooding of poor drainage areas. Motorists should slow down in heavy rainfall to reduce the risk of hydroplaning and leave a safe distance between other vehicles.
Quoting 505. redwagon:



Boeing 777.


A Ukraine Cargo Plane was shot down Monday near the same area.
Shadows of KAL 007 in 1983 comes to mind.

Flash traffic in Brussels, NATO noted, not confirmed.
Good thing this won't happen in the atlantic often like the pacific. Quick reintensification.

Afternoon all.



Ahh! Short lived however.
The 777 was apparantly shotdown by an anti-aircraft missile

Good afternoon everybody.
They should rename this DisasterUnderground.
Quoting 510. Patrap:



A Ukraine Cargo Plane was shot down Monday near the same area.


Three or four, actually. Here pilots are running away from E. Ukraine:

CBS confirms one Surface to Air Missile system has a 70K reach.


Lordy, Gro...
Very heavy storms moving are way.

A band of torrential rain early Thursday morning triggered flash flooding over parts of north Texas, shutting down an interstate.

Interstate 35 was shutdown in both directions in Cooke County from mile marker 491 to the Denton County line, closing the main north-south artery between Oklahoma and the Dallas-Ft. Worth metro area.

It was reopened about 1-2 hours later in both directions according to Cooke County Emergency Manager Ray Fletcher. Several county roads and access roads remained flooding, as 8:41 a.m. CDT.


12z GFS is a little more aggressive with Pouch O4L (still not very strong), and it is still worth noting that we will need to monitor this trough split off the southeast coast over the next 3 to 4 days.




Two areas of interest that may need to be monitored...
*I'm not saying they will develop* It's just something to watch.
Quoting 517. bappit:

They should rename this DisasterUnderground.
The original Weather Underground was a terrorist organization, so no need to change for disasters.
Quoting ricderr:
news sure does change fast...it wasn't that long where every reporter...blogger...,,,,tweeter...was sure the drought was over for california.....now it's just the opposite

DRY, DRY, DRY: HOPES FOR EL NIÑO COLLAPSE
by JOEL B. POLLAK 15 Jul 2014 6 POST A COMMENT

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has poured cold water on hopes for drought relief in California. The agency announced Tuesday that earlier warming in the Pacific Ocean, which usually indicates the start of an "El Niño" effect, had been counteracted by the arrival of cooler water. "While the majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for the spring of 2014, most have eased their predicted strength," the agency reported.
El Niño typically brings large amounts of rainfall to California, sometimes causing flooding. As recently as April, U.S. meteorologists had forecast a 2-in-3 chance of an El Niño occurring in 2014, which would likely have brought California's record-breaking drought to an end. Now, according to Australian scientists, even if an El Niño effect did occur, it would be relatively weak. That means the drought conditions would likely continue.
"El Niño is wimping out," said U.S. climatologist Bill Patzert NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge, according to the Los Angeles Times, which noted that the past two years are the driest period in downtown Los Angeles since records were kept. A small amount of rainfall fell downtown earlier in the week, but hardly enough to make an impact. Regulators are considering the first-ever statewide water restrictions.


Talk about pouring cold water in an El Niño.

El Niño remains on hold
Issued on Tuesday 15 July 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months primed the climate system for an El Niño in 2014. However, a general lack of atmospheric response over the last month has resulted in some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
While the majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for the spring of 2014, most have eased their predicted strength. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.
Changes are also occurring in the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below −0.4 °C (the negative IOD threshold) since mid-June, but it would need to remain negative into August to be considered as an event. Negative values are rare when the central Pacific is warmer than average. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is likely to return to neutral by spring. Conditions in the Indian Ocean may have contributed to the above-average rainfall experienced in southeast Australia during June.
El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas of Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over southern Australia. Conversely, a negative IOD pattern typically brings wetter winter and spring conditions to inland and southern Australia.
Quoting 525. Grothar:


Wow...
Lets hope the eating away of the NW part of Rammasun's eye is the start of the weakening.



Eye has shrunk too.


TD10W looking healthy too.




Goodnight all.
I think we already have 01-C in the Central Pacific.
Rammasun looking very dangerous.



Cat. 2 to 4 in one day? Rammasun is now a lion in a cage.
Off the Florida East coast is a typical July breeding ground but all of that convection off the coast is associated with the frontal trof off the SE Coast and the convection is being enhanced by the Tutt proximity.  We have not yet seen an independent area (detached) from the trof with persistent stand-alone convection..........Have to see how things shake out there over the next 72 hours as to what, if anything, is left over once the front clears the area; not the most favorable conditions at the moment for development IMHO.
  

that EATL tropical wave looks to be getting better. The SAL and the shear should not be too much of a problem as it traverse the central atlantic at a low latitude. It might not be much as climatology mitigates against it. That having been said, it has the potential of being an invest.
Quoting 535. stoormfury:

that EATL tropical wave looks to be getting better. The SAL and the shear should not be too much of a problem as it traverse the central atlantic at a low latitude. It might not be much as climatology mitigates against it. That having been said, it has the potential of being an invest.

Until it gets to the Leewards and is shred to pieces like the waves before it.
Quoting 525. Grothar:




up to 50% wow!
As noted on the Pacific front, Rammasun continues to impress; that, is a monster storm.
Typhoon 09W

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 JUL 2014 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 18:09:56 N Lon : 113:41:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.9 / 962.5mb/ 87.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 4.9 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : -16.9C Cloud Region Temp : -76.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW HOLD
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 107km
- Environmental MSLP : 1003mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.4 degrees




Quoting 532. hydrus:

Rammasun looking very dangerous.




Wrapping intense convection around its eye. Doesn't look good.
Quoting 529. Climate175:

Wow...
Doesn't mean It'll happen.
Quoting 543. washingtonian115:

Doesn't mean It'll happen.

Doesn't mean it won't either ;)
545. MahFL
Quoting 536. EpsilonWeather:


Until it gets to the Leewards and is shred to pieces like the waves before it.


Shear in that area is lowering, below 12N it's already around 15 kts or less.
Quoting 545. MahFL:



Shear in that area is lowering, below 12N it's already around 15 kts or less.

Quoting 543. washingtonian115:

Doesn't mean It'll happen.
True.
This makes me think the other Malaysia plane was shot down as well or taken over by terrorist.

Malaysia 777 crashes in Ukraine

Ukraine adviser: Plane shot down by 'terrorists'
Quoting 513. hurricanes2018:




????

Japan Meteorological Agency declared it yesterday.. NAVY & NOAA followed this morning, after it declined some.. The ??? is understandable if you hadn't seen what JMA did yesterday. By some models it's been expected to develop.
Blob south of Central America.

RIP to all those that lost their lives earlier this morning when MH17 crashed near the Russia-Ukraine border. Early, unverified reports suggest that the plane was shot down by a missile, but both Russia and Ukraine deny such. At any rate, 295 passengers were aboard the aircraft, and all are assumed dead.
552. silas
The difference between earlier yesterday (okay, 36 hours) and today is astonishing. I don't know how these West Pacific typhoons do it...



I am waiting for something even better in 6-7 months. It's time to get the beats up.
Quoting 550. Grothar:

Blob south of Central America.


Blob watchers again?
Doom!
Quoting Grothar:
The 777 was apparantly shotdown by an anti-aircraft missile

It seems pretty certain from videos and photos that an MH 777 is down in the Ukraine. The Ukrainians and Russians are both blaming each other. The Ukraine does not have an antiaircraft missile system capable of reaching a target at 33,000 feet. The Russians do. This is not good. :-(
Quoting 551. TropicalAnalystwx13:

RIP to all those that lost their lives earlier this morning when MH17 crashed near the Russia-Ukraine border. Early, unverified reports suggest that the plane was shot down by a missile, but both Russia and Ukraine deny such. At any rate, 295 passengers were aboard the aircraft, and all are assumed dead.


Plane was hit at 33,000 feet. Same height when Malaysia Airlines 370 went missing.
Typhoon Rammasun is looking extremely healthy right now, intense convection wrapping around the eye now on a burst. Category two to four within hours is impressive if that is what they are forecasting. South China and Vietnam need to watch out.
Quoting 558. rayduray2013:


Not to be pedantic here, but the original WU intentionally avoided human casualties in its anti-federal government building bombing campaign. This does not fit the description of terrorism which generally involves random attacks on civilian populations in order to induce..... terror.

You'd more properly label the U.S. government's drone attacks in Yemen, Pakistan, etc. as acts of terrorism, since they are largely creating civilian casualties and intentionally raising the fear among non-combatants in these nations.




Well sometimes that goes with the terroitory.



You'd more properly label the U.S. government's drone attacks in Yemen, Pakistan, etc. as acts of terrorism, since they are largely creating civilian casualties and intentionally raising the fear among non-combatants in these nations.

The one article about the atmosphere beginning to respond.. Not seeing it so much.


Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 17 Jul 2014 Average for last 30 days -6.7
Average for last 90 days 1.5
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 5.5
Monthly average SOI values April 6.4
May 4.3
June -0.8

Last 30days has been negative so there is a slight indication there. For the last 10 days or more though the daily has been positive.

ESPI is -0.21 today & yeah it came up alot from -0.68 in the last week but it should be positive if El Nino was so eminent.

Also we need 5 consecutive three month averages to have an offical El Nino conditions declared. We don't have one yet.

Not that getting some el nino conditions again aren't all that unlikely.. the heat under the surface is looking near spent. The downwelling that followed was weak so don't expect the next upwelling to be all the strong.
Eye not completely cleared out, but very good round presentation.

Quoting 556. sar2401:


It seems pretty certain from videos and photos that an MH 777 is down in the Ukraine. The Ukrainians and Russians are both blaming each other. The Ukraine does not have an antiaircraft missile system capable of reaching a target at 33,000 feet. The Russians do. This is not good. :-(


Uh. Not good at all.
Just posted by PzFeed.

To be sure, the Ukrainian Separatists have the BUK Missile System that reaches to 72K.

Thats is the most likely scenario currently.

They have shot down a Antonov 26, and Mig 25 this week there with it.





just a thought here....for WU it would be a novel idea....but just maybe....we could honor the lost...by withholding random speculation and waiting for some facts
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 511. Patrap:

Shadows of KAL 007 in 1983 comes to mind.

Flash traffic in Brussels, NATO noted, not confirmed.


Seems the Russians have a histoy with this, besides shooting down KAL 007 in '83, I was in Alaska at the North Regional Control Center at Murphy Dome Air Force Station where I worked in aircraft identification section. We had a flight plan for a KAL Flight 902 that never showed up at Pt Barrow on the North Slope. I had Air Traffic Controllers calling me every 5 minutes looking for this guy. KAL 902 was on a over the pole flight from Paris to Seoul with a possible stop in Anchorage( not sure ). Come to find out, he went off course and flew into Russian airspace And was fired upon with missles, one of which hit and the pilot made an emergency landing on a frozen lake in or near murmansk.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Last 30days has been negative so there is a slight indication there. For the last 10 days or more though the daily has been positive.

ESPI is -0.21 today & yeah it came up alot from -0.68 in the last week but it should be positive if El Nino was so eminent.

Also we need 5 consecutive three month averages to have an offical El Nino conditions declared. We don't have one yet.

Not that getting some el nino conditions again aren't all that unlikely.. the heat under the surface is looking near spent. The downwelling that followed was weak so don't expect the next upwelling to be all the strong.


couple things there....once the conditions are met concerning the SOI and also the EQSOI....i think we'll see el nino....secondly....the 5 consecutive months of three month anomalies equaling or above 0.5c is the historical standard for el nino.....the CPC will most likely declare it sooner than that
Very warm today. Highest temperature recorded today was 29.1ºC (84.4F) and tomorrow's high is forecast to be 32-33ºC (89.6-91.4ºC). Then some very severe thunderstorms predicted across the country Friday night into Saturday morning. All of England and Wales are on a yellow weather warning for heavy rain and some of Scotland for then. But before then, Southwest England and Wales are under a yellow warning for heavy rain today and tomorrow.

Link

Quoting sar2401:

 The Ukraine does not have an antiaircraft missile system capable of reaching a target at 33,000 feet.



I'm quite certain this is incorrect. See here.


Quoting 555. Gearsts:

Doom!





LOL nothing there