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Atlantic Invest 92L Likely Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:08 PM GMT on July 21, 2014

(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

SPECIAL UPDATE

Latest VIS and IR imagery suggests INVEST 92L is now a Tropical Depression, though NHC has not yet ‘called it’.



Fig 1: Latest VIS image of INVEST 92 about 1,200 NM east of the Lesser Antilles.

The low level circulation near 11.1N / 43.5W (about 1,200NM east of the Lesser Antilles) appears ‘closed’, with significant, though weak convection noted within 25NM of the center, along the S-SE side of the center.



Fig 2: The 85Ghz microwave image from a pass earlier today indicates convection is located very close to the low level circulation which I believe supports designating this system as a Depression.

The quite small developing cyclone is moving westward at 18 Kts, and is embedded in a relatively moist environment with low wind shear (<10Kts). However, the system is still located over relatively cool SST’s, and this does not support strong convection. Until the system gets closer the CARIB in about 48 hours, where SST’s exceed 28ᵒC, it is doubtful the system will be able to intensify beyond a minimal Tropical storm.



Fig 3: The latest SST analysis in the vicinity of 92L indicates SST’s are significantly below the threshold needed for deep convection and intensification beyond minimal storm intensity.

The large scale global models do not have a handle on this small system, but the specialized Tropical Cyclone models, initialized at 18Z, forecast the storm to track towards the CARIB, reaching the eastern CARIB late in the day THU or by early Friday. The statistically based intensity models show the cyclone becoming a tropical storm by then, though the more reliable dynamical models are NOT forecasting the system to show significant intensification – and at this time, this seems like the most likely solution as wind shear and drier air are likely to be encountered by the time the cyclone approaches the CARIB.



Fig 4: The Early 18Z cycle model runs are little changed from the early morning runs, but now show the system reaching the CARIB a bit earlier, reflecting the relatively fast forward motion that should continue as long as there is no deep convection.



Fig 5: The more reliable dynamical models do NOT intensify the cyclone – and this seems to be the most likely solution as the system should encounter a more hostile environment by the time it reaches the CARIB.

Update on CAT 1 MATMO

The latest GFS model run shows MATMO moving somewhat faster than earlier progged, and the Typhoon should reach the eastern coast of Taiwan as a strong CAT 2 Typhoon around 00Z Wednesday.

The next full update will be Tuesday afternoon unless conditions in the Atlantic warrant an earlier posting. Steve Gregory

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 486. ncstorm:



I agree Kori but it was stated as "absolute" last night..told it was pretty much not to get our hopes us as nothing will happen..case closed and stamped..


I do owe Andre an apology I guess. I wasn't quite as explicit as that, but I was all like "No it's probably not gonna develop, bruh. To the gulag with you!"

I feel bad. Well, maybe. Nah, I don't. ;)
Quoting 489. NCHurricane2009:


Not sure of the significance of this...since TD 2 is likely to die out from dry air before reaching the Caribbean...
It might be significant if the low level circulation remains intact and finds an environment near the Bahamas or Western Caribbean that's more favorable for development.
504. FOREX
Quoting 495. Climate175:

Everyone is really losing their faith.


I am waiting until tomorrow night to refine my forecast.



Hanging in there, should survive the night. Disagree with the NHC on not intensifying the storm, this will likely be bertha then die a short time after prior to the carb.
Quoting 456. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The development of Two was aided by a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave, a feature that enhances upper-level divergence (allowing convection to build and surface pressures to fall). This is the main reason we're tracking a depression instead of a fizzling wave. That said, this feature has now moved over Africa and it looks like subsidence will take over this region once again. I wouldn't expect any more development in this region for the rest of the month.

We'll see.
Thats what someone said last week before TD2?
Quoting 504. FOREX:



I am waiting until tomorrow night to refine my forecast.


Nothing quite like betting on a horse when they are part way down the track :-)
Quoting 463. KoritheMan:



Kyle, shut up. Don't rub salt into the wound. :)


Well, if it had been 10 years ago...
509. FOREX
Quoting 507. kmanislander:



Nothing quite like betting on a horse when they are part way down the track :-)


lol, I needed that.
Quoting 508. CybrTeddy:



Well, if it had been 10 years ago...


SHUT UP KYLE!!!!111111
Quoting 509. FOREX:



lol, I needed that.


We all need a chuckle now and then LOL
Quoting 502. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It might be significant if the low level circulation remains intact and finds an environment near the Bahamas or Western Caribbean that's more favorable for development.

I'm not even sure how this thing can curve much to the north...the observations on satellite imagery show this thing moving due west and also faster than the models are showing. If anything...I think the track will be further south and faster than what the models are showing.

Whether it tracks west or west-northwest...its headed right for a hunk of dry air. I don't see how it can survive that....
I think there's not much left to watch with TD2 for now. Get a good night's sleep and check in tomorrow morning.

You will likely see one of three things:

1. What you see now.

2. A system on its last legs

3. A TD looking like a TS.

Did I miss anything LOL

Oh, a TS as number 4 but unlikely

Good night all
Synoptic cyclonicity likely to begin amplifying over the mid-Atlantic/northeast United States coast in a few days and get stuck as the depression heads into the Caribbean. The GFS and ECMWF agree with this, as does the general flow pattern over the mainland.

Could be a possible threat to the east coast if it survives (big if), but right now the chances of it entering the western Caribbean are low if it maintains even a modicum of vertical coherence.
Quoting 487. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Won't happen it's still moving west. Rule of thumb: the weaker the system the more west it goes which is the east to west zonal flow don't you know that by now Grothar? By the way if you all haven't noticed I'm playing devils advocate tonight. :D


I never believed in the rule of thumb with storms. yes, generally weaker storms do not respond in the same manner as do stronger systems. However, many very weak systems do not necessarily move straight west. Yes, it is currently moving west, but the steering currents would move it more to the WNW. By Wednesday, if it survives, we should know a little more. However, with this system too many models are close on it.

Quoting 509. FOREX:



lol, I needed that.
Forex check your mail. Sorry for caps.
Quoting 497. Tazmanian:
I love my new Samsung Galaxy S5 smartphone
Do the batteries last as long as they say?
Quoting 500. scott39:

Never discount a little vigorous viral TD.

Tropical Depression ten 2005.....nuff said
MIMIC goes cuckoo at the end of the loop, but you get the picture.

I'll point out the models did catch 02L, at least the GFS did, but it's such a pathetic example of a tropical cyclone that they can't resolve it beyond a single closed isobar. We were saying "real development" won't happen until mid-August. 02L isn't real development, it's a random spinup that found itself caught between two trade wind zones and enhanced by a Kelvin Wave that's now leaving 02L behind. Dry air values are meager at best, and horrid for development at most. That being said, given an El Nino has yet to materialize, shear is slowly falling across the basin, and TCHP remains pretty high in the western Caribbean/GOMEX, I suspect we'll have a few named storms next month as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) returns to our basin. Potential for a very significant problem if a tropical wave or a trough split manages to find itself in a low shear environment over this:



521. beell
Quoting 496. KoritheMan:



The weaker system moving more westward thing is only a general rule. I've seen instances where the mid-level flow is actually more westerly than the lower-troposheric flow.

That being said, the rule definitely seems to be applicable here.


Don't forget the Beta drift!
Is this a derecho or a sausage>

Destiny Child should be singing to TD 2.
Well, I WAS halfway between sleep and wake when this



woke me up.... Thunder on the right, no left... okay Thunder on the West!

So now I'm waiting to see if it'll rain, and more important, if the power'll stay on.... lol ... can't watch the Dmax if I don't have any internet ... :o/
Not to get off topic, but it was announced today that storm videographer Jim Leonard has been diagnosed with terminal cancer. The announcement was made on the Hurricane city.com weather site this afternoon. If you have followed these things for any length of time you know of Jim and his work through some of the most notorious storms. Anyone wishing to offer support can go to Hurricanecity.com to do what you can.
Quoting 521. beell:



Don't forget the Beta drift!



The figure shows how the conservation of absolute vorticity results in the formation of anticyclonic relative vorticity in the northeast quadrant of the storm, and the formation of cyclonic relative vorticity in the southwest quadrant of the storm: Diagram of absolute vorticity advection and relative vorticity formation in the vicinity of a tropical cyclone.. The result adds a component of motion to the northwest to the storm's trajectory.



Quoting 521. beell:



Don't forget the Beta drift!


Yeah!
Quoting 522. Grothar:

Is this a derecho or a sausage>




It's a sausage.

I'm hungry.
Quoting 518. opal92nwf:


Tropical Depression ten 2005.....nuff said


Yeah..the remnants of TD 10 did contribute to the genesis of Katrina later on. But that doesn't mean every TD that spins up in the MDR will become something significant.
11pm update is coming soon.
BTW, read down all the comments.... I note two things as a result:

1. T#s on TD2 are still rising.... not a good idea to count it out just yet.

2. Matmo looks fairly substantial on that Taiwan radar imagery.... I agree flooding could be the real story with this one.

Shucks..... now that I'm up I may as well stay for the 11 p.m. ...
I just bought 2 mega millions tickets~!
TD2 looking like it's on it's last leg of this improbable journey. Convection is waning and unless d-max gives it a burst of convection, TD2 may not be anything but an open wave again by morning. Dorian was painful for so many last year as a dud storm and was a beast compared to what we've seen from TD2. Interesting how a boring season causes a storm like TD2 to be of such great interest the next year. I think a lot of us have learned to be thankful for what we do get.
Quoting 525. Look2thesky:

Not to get off topic, but it was announced today that storm videographer Jim Leonard has been diagnosed with terminal cancer. The announcement was made on the Hurricane city.com weather site this afternoon. If you have followed these things for any length of time you know of Jim and his work through some of the most notorious storms. Anyone wishing to offer support can go to Hurricanecity.com to do what you can.


Oh wow, that's unfortunate. I'm friends with Jim on Facebook but I was oblivious to that.
Quoting 523. Climate175:

Destiny Child should be singing to TD 2.

Small cdo pattern apparent... the blanket of moisture is still existent. The latest GFS Models shows enough moisture for td 2 to persist... with the only inhibitent being shear in the ne caribbean. 20 kt west shear is gona inject the dry air as it gets to the Antillies!!
Quoting 519. SavannahStorm:

MIMIC goes cuckoo at the end of the loop, but you get the picture.




HAARP
Quoting 520. CybrTeddy:

I'll point out the models did catch 02L, at least the GFS did, but it's such a pathetic example of a tropical cyclone that they can't resolve it beyond a single closed isobar. We were saying "real development" won't happen until mid-August. 02L isn't real development, it's a random spinup that found itself caught between two trade wind zones and enhanced by a Kelvin Wave that's now leaving 02L behind. Dry air values are meager at best, and horrid for development at most. That being said, given an El Nino has yet to materialize, shear is slowly falling across the basin, and TCHP remains pretty high in the western Caribbean/GOMEX, I suspect we'll have a few named storms next month as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) returns to our basin. Potential for a very significant problem if a tropical wave or a trough split manages to find itself in a low shear environment over this:






so Teddy..a TD is not "real development"?...92L wasnt a wave that came off Africa and traverse across the Atlantic and develop into a tropical cyclone?..

pray tell what is real development then?
Quoting 521. beell:



Don't forget the Beta drift!
The Beta Drift is mentioned here. Again, thanks for the link last night beell.
Quoting 528. KoritheMan:



It's a sausage.

I'm hungry.
ya eat all that u wont be...evenin Kori.
11pm advisory
Movement W
Winds 35mph
12.0N 45.1W
1012 mb

Nothing new what so ever
Quoting 536. VAbeachhurricanes:



HAARP


They're trying to induce recurvature.
Quoting 522. Grothar:
Is this a derecho or a sausage>

You are one funny man! I thought you went to bed.
TD #2 reminds me of the 2013 hurricane season
Oh my. TD2 looks like one of the circus cars, circling the center ring with parts falling off and the clowns bailing out. :-)
546. beell
Quoting 526. Patrap:




The figure shows how the conservation of absolute vorticity...




And this one also:
Lee Grenci-The Beta Effect.

And from which everybody's favorite "early-on" model-The BAM's (Beta Advection Model) gets its name. The Beta correction is included in this model's track forecast.
Quoting 545. sar2401:

Oh my. TD2 looks like one of the circus cars, circling the center ring with parts falling off and the clowns bailing out. :-)


lmao
Quoting 537. ncstorm:



so Teddy..a TD is not "real development"?...92L wasnt a wave that came off Africa and traverse across the Atlantic and develop into a tropical cyclone?..

pray tell what is real development then?


02L? No. It's barely a tropical cyclone and it'll be dead by 12 hours. It's as much as real development as Jose was.

We'll get cyclones, perhaps significant cyclones if things align right, but not for another few weeks and not from this.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

The compact depression has not changed much during the past several
hours. The system is producing a small area of deep convection near
the center and a few fragmented bands mainly on the south side of
the circulation. An ASCAT pass around 0010 UTC captured the western
half of the system and indicated that winds are light and variable
to the south of the center, suggesting that the system has not
become better defined.

The dynamical models, both regional and global, are in good
agreement in showing the system weakening into a trough by the time
it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The primary reasons for the
weakening in these models appear to be dry air and possibly
mid-level shear. The SHIPS and LGEM models show the cyclone gaining
strength, but this scenario seems unlikely given the
expected unfavorable environmental conditions. The official
intensity forecast follows the trend in the dynamical model
guidance, and is the same as the previous forecast.

Satellite fixes suggest that depression has moved a little to the
north of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate
is 280/14. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should
keep it moving westward to west-northwestward during the next few
days. This track takes the depression, or its remnants, over the
Lesser Antilles in 2 to 3 days. The NHC track forecast is a little
to the north of the previous one, primarily to account for the
initial position, and lies fairly close to the multi-model consensus
TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 12.0N 45.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 12.5N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 13.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 13.5N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 14.5N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 16.7N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Quoting 544. yankees440:

TD #2 reminds me of the 2013 hurricane season


"It's only a matter of time."

"No."

"HOW DARE YOU QUESTION ME!"
Quoting 543. gulfbreeze:

You are one funny man! I thought you went to bed.


How could I leave you all with that swirl out there?
Quoting 534. KoritheMan:



Oh wow, that's unfortunate. I'm friends with Jim on Facebook but I was oblivious to that.
Unfortunate.?
ULL south of Bermuda will probably create the weakness to pull it on a more wnw path.

It's like a moisture sandwich...Dry to the S; extra dry to the N....

I think Cornholio is among us.

..r u threatening me?

Quoting 524. BahaHurican:

Well, I WAS halfway between sleep and wake when this
woke me up.... Thunder on the right, no left... okay Thunder on the West!

So now I'm waiting to see if it'll rain, and more important, if the power'll stay on.... lol ... can't watch the Dmax if I don't have any internet ... :o/


It's lightning big cloud to ground to the southeast here. Rattling the windows.

...weeeeeeee'


It's only July 21,2014 who knows season could be a bust. But the models don't know we don't know we will all have to just wait and see! It's all up to mother nature and the Big Guy upstairs!
Quoting 545. sar2401:

Oh my. TD2 looks like one of the circus cars, circling the center ring with parts falling off and the clowns bailing out. :-)
Yep..That dry air is more than detrimental for a little T.D.
Seriously though, this TD is an exact replica of like everything that happened from July to September of 2013 (hurricane season)
Quoting 548. CybrTeddy:



02L? No. It's barely a tropical cyclone and it'll be dead by 12 hours.

We'll get cyclones, perhaps significant cyclones if things align right, but not for another few weeks and not from this.



Well, NHC is willing to give it 48 hours before it kills it off.... lol
It is what it is. I find the NHC discussion quite realistic. I'd be happier if we get Bertha out of it, but it we don't, I won't be surprised.

Okay, the yawn is back, so I'm going to try for another nap.... see u guys in a while....
If TD2 does hang look out!!It does not look good just saying if it does!!
Quoting 555. StormJunkie:

It's like a moisture sandwich...Dry to the S; extra dry to the N....


Looks like someone dropped a milkshake on the beach
It's a long way out, but it's still possible to gain hints from the synoptic 500 mb pattern this far in advance. It may not pan out this way, but it's certainly a nonzero chance.

GFS shows rather strong mid-tropsopheric ridging returning over the east coast in the wake of the forthcoming period of troughiness.

This would be very conducive for westward-moving hurricanes into the US.

Me want.

Tropical Depression 02L

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 JUL 2014 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 11:45:32 N Lon : 44:52:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1015.2mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.5 2.9

Center Temp : -44.6C Cloud Region Temp : -31.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in MD GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1017mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.3 degrees

************************************************* ***



Quoting 566. KoritheMan:

It's a long way out, but it's still possible to gain hints from the synoptic 500 mb pattern this far in advance. It may not pan out this way, but it's certainly a nonzero chance.

GFS shows rather strong mid-tropsopheric ridging returning over the east coast in the wake of the forthcoming period of troughiness.

This would be very conducive for westward-moving hurricanes into the US.

Me want.



Too bad there won't be anything to take advantage of that pattern. :)
Whats the deal with the ULL over Mobile is it headed for the Gulf?
Quoting 566. KoritheMan:

It's a long way out, but it's still possible to gain hints from the synoptic 500 mb pattern this far in advance. It may not pan out this way, but it's certainly a nonzero chance.

GFS shows rather strong mid-tropsopheric ridging returning over the east coast in the wake of the forthcoming period of troughiness.

This would be very conducive for westward-moving hurricanes into the US.

Me want.


Serious question Kori is that pattern similar to 2004? I notice the short dip in the 588 dm over Illinois.
Quoting 537. ncstorm:



so Teddy..a TD is not "real development"?...92L wasnt a wave that came off Africa and traverse across the Atlantic and develop into a tropical cyclone?..

pray tell what is real development then?

Real development is something that doesn't look like a mesocyclone surrounded by dry air and struggling to just survive.

TD2 isn't what I would consider "development".

"Development" is something that spins up, sustains itself for any appreciable length of time with some strengthening, and -does- something aside from make a few of the amateur weather forecasters that frequent this blog all hot and bothered.
Quoting 568. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Too bad there won't be anything to take advantage of that pattern. :)


It will if it sticks around.

Besides, the general motif this year has been for ridging near Bermuda.
Quoting 570. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Serious question Kori is that pattern similar to 2004? I notice the short dip in the 588 dm over Illinois.
We do not need a repeat of 2004!
Even if it doesn't form you all have to admit you had a little fun and got your mind off your troubles for a little while. At least nobody saw an eye.

Quoting 573. gulfbreeze:

We do not need a repeat of 2004!


No we don't. I can't reach the Florida peninsula in time to chase a hurricane and make it back for work.

How about 2008?
Quoting 560. GTstormChaserCaleb:




shouldnt it be a wave?
Quoting 570. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Serious question Kori is that pattern similar to 2004? I notice the short dip in the 588 dm over Illinois.


I'd have to pull up the 500 mb heights to see, but that map definitely shows a very tangible threat to Florida.
Quoting 569. gulfbreeze:

Whats the deal with the ULL over Mobile is it headed for the Gulf?

Its supposed to retrograde west-southwest along the US Gulf coast and into southern Texas. That ULL is basically going to orbit around the upper anticyclone currently parked over northern Texas.
Quoting 554. GTstormChaserCaleb:

ULL south of Bermuda will probably create the weakness to pull it on a more wnw path.




That's my Caleb!!
A trash low that's currently on life support. What a waste. People in Florida have seen worse in afternoon thunderstorms.
Quoting 575. KoritheMan:


No we don't. I can't reach the Florida peninsula in time to chase a hurricane and make it back for work.

How about 2008?
Panhandle is closer you don't have to drive as far.But I DO NOT WANT AN IVAN!!!!!
Dustycane.
583. beell
Quoting 539. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The Beta Drift is mentioned here. Again, thanks for the link last night beell.


YW, GT. Small system like TD 2, smaller effect. Not as much latitude involved for the winds to gain/lose earth vorticity.
Quoting 578. NCHurricane2009:

Its supposed to retrograde west-southwest along the US Gulf coast and into southern Texas. That ULL is basically going to orbit around the upper anticyclone currently parked over northern Texas.
Thanks
Quoting 580. Drakoen:

A trash low that's currently on life support. What a waste. People in Florida have seen worse in afternoon thunderstorms.

LOL...sometimes I find y'all's frustration with weak system humorous....
Quoting 577. KoritheMan:



I'd have to pull up the 500 mb heights to see, but that map definitely shows a very tangible threat to Florida.

A lot of landfalling storms are circumstantial as in regards to the formation of the ridge that drives them into the coast. Most of the times the 500 mb steering patterns change multiple times.... however numerous storms increase odds... that one of them can be steered into the coast
Quoting 581. gulfbreeze:

Panhandle is closer you don't have to drive as far.But I DO NOT WANT AN IVAN!!!!!


My target zone is Galveston to West Palm Beach. If the storm happens to hit from Monday-Wednesday outside of that zone, I could probably find a way out of Louisiana Sunday night.
Quoting 585. NCHurricane2009:


LOL...sometimes I find y'all's frustration with weak system humorous....


Frustration? I thought it was Drak being Drak. ;)
Quoting 580. Drakoen:

A trash low that's currently on life support. What a waste. People in Florida have seen worse in afternoon thunderstorms.

Talk to me when it it forms...
Quoting KoritheMan:
It's a long way out, but it's still possible to gain hints from the synoptic 500 mb pattern this far in advance. It may not pan out this way, but it's certainly a nonzero chance.

GFS shows rather strong mid-tropsopheric ridging returning over the east coast in the wake of the forthcoming period of troughiness.

This would be very conducive for westward-moving hurricanes into the US.

Me want.



+1
Quoting 580. Drakoen:

A trash low that's currently on life support. What a waste. People in Florida have seen worse in afternoon thunderstorms.
That trash low is the only thing we got for the islands ;)
Quoting 588. KoritheMan:



Frustration? I thought it was Drak being Drak. ;)

Well I'm just grateful that we have an Atlantic system to track in the first place. This one surprised me...I didn't think it would form. I am also grateful that I bought a bag of twizzlers from Rite Aid because I had a heck of a sweet tooth tonight...
Quoting 537. ncstorm:



so Teddy..a TD is not "real development"?...92L wasnt a wave that came off Africa and traverse across the Atlantic and develop into a tropical cyclone?..

pray tell what is real development then?

TD 2 is real development, is it going to be a tropical storm or hurricane who knows. It is not the prettiest TD ever, but it is a tropical cyclone and will be recorded as such.
Quoting 557. Skyepony:



It's lightning big cloud to ground to the southeast here. Rattling the windows.


When it's thundering like this I'm always looking out to see if there's any significant lightning going on.... [sigh]... almost always stays off near the coast....

Quoting 562. yankees440:

Seriously though, this TD is an exact replica of like everything that happened from July to September of 2013 (hurricane season)
Wait. Didn't u just say this? Is there something profound I missed the first time?
The latest ASCAT pass raises the question, "does this system have a closed circulation?"...

Quoting 585. NCHurricane2009:


LOL...sometimes I find y'all's frustration with weak system humorous....

I agree, it is just clouds, dust and some water after all.
597. BtnTx
It is great to see the main WU bloggers are still on patrol looking out for us! Thanks!
Oh yes please!
I think I see an eye forming... bwahahahaha
Quoting 595. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The latest ASCAT pass raises the question, "does this system have a closed circulation?"...




Doesn't seem that way...but that's none of my business.
TD TWO will have to combat the dry air and SAL in order for it to survive. It also needs to gain
more convection and grow in size, so it can support itself for the next 72 hours. I believe that it will sustain itself and will intensify after passing the Leeward Islands.

Read More about TD TWO from My Blog:Link
Quoting 598. Gearsts:

Oh yes please!



Yeah,bring it!
Quoting 595. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The latest ASCAT pass raises the question, "does this system have a closed circulation?"...



IMHO I believe it does but at the moment it's raggedy
Looks like "LB" (Lil' Bugger) has an outflow channel to the S & W.



Quoting KoritheMan:
Farmers Almanac (Florida)
April and May will be hotter and rainier than normal, especially in the south.

Summer will be hotter than normal, with the hottest periods in mid-June, from late June through early July, and in early August. Rainfall will be much above normal in the north but a bit below normal in the south.

September and October will be warmer and rainier than normal, with several hurricane threats in September.

TD2 is the cutest thing ever! Where can I get one? :)
Quoting 604. ProgressivePulse:

Looks like "LB" (Lil' Bugger) has an outflow channel to the S & W.



Quoting KoritheMan:
Farmers Almanac
April and May will be hotter and rainier than normal, especially in the south.

Summer will be hotter than normal, with the hottest periods in mid-June, from late June through early July, and in early August. Rainfall will be much above normal in the north but a bit below normal in the south.

September and October will be warmer and rainier than normal, with several hurricane threats in September.




Yes, it does!!

Quoting 574. Grothar:

Even if it doesn't form you all have to admit you had a little fun and got your mind off your troubles for a little while. At least nobody saw an eye.


Actually several pple did... before it got named.... lol ...

Quoting 591. Gearsts:

That trash low is the only thing we got for the islands ;)
AKA wishcasting for the Antilles...

Quoting 571. jeffs713:


Real development is something that doesn't look like a mesocyclone surrounded by dry air and struggling to just survive.

TD2 isn't what I would consider "development".

"Development" is something that spins up, sustains itself for any appreciable length of time with some strengthening, and -does- something aside from make a few of the amateur weather forecasters that frequent this blog all hot and bothered.


so when the NHC decides instead to use the "famous cone of doom" when a tropical depression forms its not to to be taken seriously because it won't sustain itself or not "real development"..

I guess the NHC got it all wrong and should instead keep using the X's when a TD forms

you guys crack me up..the "real development" is a new term to add to WU glossary of science terminology..

so far we got:

"real development"
"rocket fuel"
"busted"
"blob"

I'm sure there is more but I cant concentrate due to the late hour..I think you all are fabolous and know your stuff but downplaying this system because some didnt think it wouldnt develop is quite hilarous..
Quoting 596. sporteguy03:


I agree, it is just clouds, dust and some water after all.


well SAL would kill anything that forms in the atlantic according to the memo that has been circulating through WU..
Not happening Nward Gro. This is the weak TD I spoke about. Get your rest my friend, we'll have fun soon enough, IMO.
611. JRRP
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
I think I see an eye forming... bwahahahaha

i see 3 eyes
So this would take like a week to reach the vicinity of Florida?
Quoting 604. ProgressivePulse:

Looks like "LB" (Lil' Bugger) has an outflow channel to the S & W.



Quoting KoritheMan:
Farmers Almanac (Florida)
April and May will be hotter and rainier than normal, especially in the south.

Summer will be hotter than normal, with the hottest periods in mid-June, from late June through early July, and in early August. Rainfall will be much above normal in the north but a bit below normal in the south.

September and October will be warmer and rainier than normal, with several hurricane threats in September.



I literally lol'd at your nickname for this system. It takes a lot to get me that humored.
Tiny...



All alone...

"sniff" [reaches for handkerchief]
Quoting 580. Drakoen:

A trash low that's currently on life support. What a waste. People in Florida have seen worse in afternoon thunderstorms.


lol..we know..we hear about those infamous thunderstorms every day..but Florida is due for a strike..maybe TD 02 will pay yall a visit and give those thunderstorms a run for their money..
Wow, this satellite makes it look like nothing.
Quoting 610. ProgressivePulse:

Not happening Nward Gro. This is the weak TD I spoke about. Get your rest my friend, we'll have fun soon enough, IMO.


These days, this is as good as it gets. Besides playing Spider Solitaire, my glory days are over.

I've been relegated to these phrases:

No, dear. I did not eat any bacon.
I'm not the one who ordered the Pizza.
Yes, I took my water pill.
Who moved my glasses???
Quoting 613. opal92nwf:


I literally lol'd at your nickname for this system. It takes me a lot to get that humored.


That is a bonified outflow channel though, lol.
Quoting 611. JRRP:


i see 3 eyes


Quoting 614. BahaHurican:

Tiny...



All alone...

"sniff" [reaches for handkerchief]



Now that is a lol!
A little ITCZ "flare" with a little twist........if that. Nothing to see here folks.

Quoting 614. BahaHurican:

Tiny...



All alone...

"sniff" [reaches for handkerchief]


and not getting much love
Quoting 617. Grothar:



These days, this is as good as it gets. Besides playing Spider Solitaire, my glory days are over.

I've been relegated to these phrases:

No, dear. I did not eat any bacon.
I'm not the one who ordered the Pizza.
Yes, I took my water pill.
Who moved my glasses???


We are going to Disney on Friday for a week, you can tag along?
625. JRRP
Quoting opal92nwf:


jeje

Ok, let's play this game. How long before TD2 allegedly gets annihilated?

Looks like Matmo's first rainband has already moved ashore...



Anybody with radar link / image?
628. beell
Quoting 614. BahaHurican:

Tiny...



All alone...

"sniff" [reaches for handkerchief]


I have seen better looking "Tropical Depressions"...not sure if I have seen worse.
Quoting 625. JRRP:


jeje




The Twilight Zone: episode 163
Quoting 623. ProgressivePulse:



We are going to Disney on Friday for a week, you can tag along?


If you let me go on the Tea Cup ride.
On a slightly related note, I really like the look of the new 5-day GTWO...



And did anybody notice we have two Xes in the EPac?
Quoting 619. opal92nwf:





The Twilight Zone: episode 163

(quoted wrong entry)
Quoting 617. Grothar:



These days, this is as good as it gets. Besides playing Spider Solitaire, my glory days are over.

I've been relegated to these phrases:

No, dear. I did not eat any bacon.
I'm not the one who ordered the Pizza.
Yes, I took my water pill.
Who moved my glasses???


Seriously though, I love Pizza. If you and the Mrs. love pizza as well try out Pizza Luna on Clematis St. Downtown WPB, it's amazing. I took my wife there the night we met and we go back regularly.
Quoting 628. beell:



I have seen better looking "Tropical Depressions"...not sure if I have seen worse.


Remember this, beel>

Quoting 627. BahaHurican:

Looks like Matmo's first rainband has already moved ashore...



Anybody with radar link / image?


It moved ashore a while ago:



Radar Link

You can loop images too.
637. JRRP
next!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 635. Grothar:



Remember this, beel>


If that's Marco, I been thinking about that tonight.
Not much help for LB out there

Quoting 636. Envoirment:



It moved ashore a while ago:



Radar Link

You can loop images too.
TYVM.... should prolly bookmark, as it looks like the WPAC will remain fairly busy for a while...
Quoting 608. ncstorm:



so when the NHC decides instead to use the "famous cone of doom" when a tropical depression forms its not to to be taken seriously because it won't sustain itself or not "real development"..

I guess the NHC got it all wrong and should instead keep using the X's when a TD forms

you guys crack me up..the "real development" is a new term to add to WU glossary of science terminology..

so far we got:

"real development"
"rocket fuel"
"busted"
"blob"

I'm sure there is more but I cant concentrate due to the late hour..I think you all are fabolous and know your stuff but downplaying this system because some didnt think it wouldnt develop is quite hilarious..

add trash low to that list, when you call the NHC tomorrow after you mention golf see what a trash low is so we can add that to the term list.
I really don't understand people in here, if there is no development they get angry if we get development they still get angry. I really don't understand you. I know this is a td but what do you really expect a cat 5 roaming in the Atlantic? This is July not August or September be happy of what you get.Btw many says this system is thrash but it pull the surprise that many including me were not expecting .I will give kudos to NCstorm as she was the only really believing this thing had a shot of development. This system you liked it or not shut our mouth. Thank you.
Quoting 630. Grothar:



If you let me go on the Tea Cup ride.

Well you might be spinning faster then TD 2 might be by then.
A new blog fresh off of the press.
Check it out if you're interested.
Tropical Depression Two forms ; Matmo nearing Taiwan
Quoting 639. ProgressivePulse:

Not much help for LB out there


Does this "LB" stand for "Longing-to-be Bertha"???
Rhut Rho Rastro

Quoting 638. BahaHurican:

If that's Marco, I been thinking about that tonight.


Yes....it.....is!.
Quoting 645. BahaHurican:

Does this "LB" stand for "Longing-to-be Bertha"???


"lil" Bugger
Quoting 635. Grothar:



Remember this, beel>



It would be awesome to see a cyclone this small become a cat. 5.
Quoting 642. allancalderini:

I really don't understand people in here, if there is no development they get angry if we get development they still get angry. I really don't understand you. I know this is a td but what do you really expect a cat 5 roaming in the Atlantic? This is July not August or September be happy of what you get.Btw many says this system is thrash but it pull the surprise that many including me were not expecting .I will give kudos to NCstorm as she was the only really believing this thing had a shot of development. This system you liked it or not shut or mouth. Thank you.
I am glad we have something to bicker over at this point.
To put things in perspective... we could be talking about ENSO non-development; any range of topics related to global warming, or the mis-labelled polar vortex.
I'd rather be observing our "trash low".

[I love that term.... that has GOT to enter the blog nomenclature.... lol...]
Quoting 647. Grothar:



Yes....it.....is!.
[Pats self on back and utters in dulcet tones] I do love to be right....

[grin]

Thing with Marco is it had better environment including the BOC for a fast spinup....
Quoting 642. allancalderini:

I really don't understand people in here, if there is no development they get angry if we get development they still get angry. I really don't understand you. I know this is a td but what do you really expect a cat 5 roaming in the Atlantic? This is July not August or September be happy of what you get.Btw many says this system is thrash but it pull the surprise that many including me were not expecting .I will give kudos to NCstorm as she was the only really believing this thing had a shot of development. This system you liked it or not shut our mouth. Thank you.


Now, now let's calm down. We don't want to get upset over a (semi) rotating pack of birds in the central Atlantic.
Quoting 652. Drakoen:



Now, now let's calm down. We don't want to get upset over a (semi) rotating pack of birds in the central Atlantic.
and I flew so far away?
EDIT: "I Ran (So far away)" - Flock of Seagulls...
Ah... now we have the rain down again... lol.... think I'll get into bed again...
Quoting 652. Drakoen:



Now, now let's calm down. We don't want to get upset over a (semi) rotating pack of birds in the central Atlantic.
Your sarcasm is undeniable,and I am not angry far from it. I am just stating my opinion of what I see.
So much for Big Bertha... More like Benign Bertha.

It appears TD Two is beginning to separate from the ITCZ... Look for a grim 24 hours, and possible dissipation.
As Cody pointed out, the latest ASCAT pass reveals a very ill-defined circulation if there is one.
I'd say there's a 15% chance of TD Two strengthening enough to get named.
Not impressed. And between ASCAT and the microwave...I can't see how it has a closed low. Should be down graded to a trash low. Junk wave. Timid thunderstorm.





Quoting 580. Drakoen:

A trash low that's currently on life support. What a waste. People in Florida have seen worse in afternoon thunderstorms.


Oh yes, I have even seen a number of named storms that don't stack up to a round of old afternoon thunderstorms.
Quoting 657. StormJunkie:

Not impressed. And between ASCAT and the microwave...I can't see how it has a closed low. Should be down graded to a trash low. Junk wave. Timid thunderstorm.








Oh, there is no lightning in that, that is simply a cluster of showers rotating about a weak low.
Quoting 657. StormJunkie:

Not impressed. And between ASCAT and the microwave...I can't see how it has a closed low. Should be down graded to a trash low. Junk wave. Timid thunderstorm.



All of that.... but with ROTATION.....

True...Bertha to be is diminutive.
She's also extremely symetrical.
I wouldn't be surprised if her se trunkside gained some size tomorrow.
Quoting 636. Envoirment:



It moved ashore a while ago:



Radar Link

You can loop images too.


Taiwan has a good radar, seems synced to tropical rainfall rates quite well given higher DBZ values.
Lil closer view on that. No nino happening this year folks.

Yesterday



June

Quoting opal92nwf:
Wow, this satellite makes it look like nothing.

Well, that's because it pretty much is headed toward nothing. I call a remnant at this time tomorrow.
Seems like the rain is passing over for now.... this seems so ... strange... for this time in July!
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Lil closer view on that. No nino happening this year folks.


What's ncstorm's position on this?
Quoting 661. BahaHurican:

All of that.... but with ROTATION.....




How about semi-rotatating spineless sham of a shower?
Quoting 668. StormJunkie:



How about semi-rotatating spineless sham of a shower?
uh... no... didn't think of that one....
Quoting 667. sar2401:


What's ncstorm's position on this?


Not sure, I'm using the look out the window/rear view mirror technique.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Seems like the rain is passing over for now.... this seems so ... strange... for this time in July!

You think that's strange? The storms that gave me four inches of rain earlier today moved on into Georgia...and now are they are retrograding back toward me again. This is the strangest July I've ever seen.
Quoting 659. Jedkins01:



Oh yes, I have even seen a number of named storms that don't stack up to a round of old afternoon thunderstorms.


The conditions we get in named storms around here (inland Central FL) are rarely worse than the worst 2-3 summer thunderstorms (or spring squall lines) on an annual basis. 2004 being the lone exception that I observed and am aware of at all actually.

Also, on a somewhat related note, I believe lightning is uncommon and not typically a notable feature of tropical cyclones.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Not sure, I'm using the look out the window/rear view mirror technique.

I wouldn't want to make a forecast on something big like that until I made sure I wouldn't be getting an invitation to one of her big crow fests. :-)
Nite! It ain't over till it's over.

Quoting 674. Grothar:

Nite! It ain't over till it's over.




Only one, but outflow is a good thing.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Taiwan has a good radar, seems synced to tropical rainfall rates quite well given higher DBZ values.

They also have the only hurricane hunter aircraft in Asia. Not bad for a country we don't even recognize.


Thank goodness for floaters....
Quoting 674. Grothar:

Nite! It ain't over till it's over.


Keeps refiring storms over the centre.... if it can keep that up, it may stand a chance.
  • This Depression will likely defy ALL THE NAYSAYERS AND I predict that in the next 24hrs TD2 will be in a little more favorable environment Re: SST and will have gained Tropical storm designation by then from the NHC. 
I DO KNOW THAT There have been WORSE looking Tropical storms than TD2.. CASES IN POINT INCLUDE:- T.S Bill of 2003 and Jerry of 2001 etc. As was rightly noted by Steve on Behalf of Dr. Masters- the call on the forecast intensity for TD 2 might have been a bit too conservative- that’s given the forecasts of the Specialized Tropical Cyclone Models. I hold that the exclusive agreement with the large scale models at this stage in the system’s development is most likely a bit too Premature...
IN FACT, there is a precedent for such systems – even those which have been open or even weak tropical waves –That have quickly been able to organize east of the Lesser Antilles islands- resulting in high-end tropical storms right over the islands. Systems like Cindy-1993, & Debby -1994 easily come to mind, & of course Chantal of 2013 also.
But ONE OF THE MOST RECENT AND SIGNIFICANT CASES WAS T.S. HELENE OF THE 2012 SEASON WHICH ALTHOUGH IT WAS OFFICIALLY DOWNGRADED DUE TO ‘CONFIRMED’ DEGENERATION BY A HURRICANE HUNTER’S FLIGHT –PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN A COUPLE OF THE ISLANDS;Eg. THE ISLAND OF DOMINICA WHERE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSED NEAREST HAD LIGHT TO MODERATE DAMAGE AT SEVERAL SPOTS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONSISTENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ACTUAL TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM & Not a Truly ‘DOWNGRADED’ SYSTEM. SO AGAIN IT SEEMS INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT –‘The large scale global models do not have a handle on this small system, but the specialized Tropical Cyclone models, initialized at 18Z, forecast the storm to track towards the CARIB, reaching the eastern CARIB late in the day THU or by early Friday’ –May be more accurate. Quoting Steve:-‘The statistically based intensity models show the cyclone becoming a tropical storm by then, though the more reliable dynamical models are NOT forecasting the system to show significant intensification…’ The statistically based intensity models may prove to in fact be RIGHT Despite wind shear and drier air factors.
God Bless us All!

Quoting 582. CybrTeddy:

Dustycane.



Its actually not dusty, it is embedded in a small area of deep tropical moisture greater than 2.00 inch PW.

There is dry air nearby though within close proximity, if it pulls it in, its done.

Its suffering from a lack of warm waters, which is creating a lack of convective forcing. There is a severe lack of energy. Also, the air is very stable, indicated by the stratocumulus close proximity to the depression.

Seeing stratocumulus clouds near and around a tropical cyclone is downright weird.

Instability is atrociously low here. Its a amazing this thing ever managed a low pressure system here, talk about a vigorous wave.
The Low over Minnesota is gonna explode if it manages to reach the lakes near Michigan......Maybe 90 mph gusts
Quoting 673. sar2401:


I wouldn't want to make a forecast on something big like that until I made sure I wouldn't be getting an invitation to one of her big crow fests. :-)


I've seen a lot since 04. Especially the Bust forecast of 06. Industry relies on early predictions and they will hold as long as they can on the well advertised el nino.

This is no El Nino,



Seems to be keeping the dry air off for now.... shouldn't we be seeing separation from the ITCZ / Monsoon trof in the next 6 -12 hours? Seems to me it's pulling N and away with every sat image...
Quoting 671. sar2401:


You think that's strange? The storms that gave me four inches of rain earlier today moved on into Georgia...and now are they are retrograding back toward me again. This is the strangest July I've ever seen.


Be grateful for the rain. We have had normal rainfall (if not somewhat erratic) so far this summer. I dug a hole in the sandy soil to plant a new landscape plant at my new place this evening. Past about 1 inch down, at most, it was dry sand. Seriously? Can't imagine what the soil will be like in January.
Quoting 574. Grothar:

Even if it doesn't form you all have to admit you had a little fun and got your mind off your troubles for a little while. At least nobody saw an eye.




Don't worry, its only a matter of time before a few bloggers manage to draw out an eye of this little mouse.
Quoting 685. Jedkins01:



Don't worry, its only a matter of time before a few bloggers manage to draw out an eye of this little mouse.
They already did... before it got named...
Quoting Drakoen:


Now, now let's calm down. We don't want to get upset over a (semi) rotating pack of birds in the central Atlantic.


They need to rotate cyclonicly

Quoting sar2401:

You think that's strange? The storms that gave me four inches of rain earlier today moved on into Georgia...and now are they are retrograding back toward me again. This is the strangest July I've ever seen.

Congrats on at least getting rain.
Goodnight everyone.
Don't rule out a subtropical Hurricane over Lake Michigan coming soon.....
I haven't seen this posted so I'll post it.

Matmo approaching Taiwan...



Eye finally coming into range...
Quoting KoritheMan:
It's a long way out, but it's still possible to gain hints from the synoptic 500 mb pattern this far in advance. It may not pan out this way, but it's certainly a nonzero chance.

GFS shows rather strong mid-tropsopheric ridging returning over the east coast in the wake of the forthcoming period of troughiness.

This would be very conducive for westward-moving hurricanes into the US.

Me want.



Me not want. Storms please stay away from my home and hearth.

However I learned when I was three that the atmosphere does not always give me what I want.

As I've said before, some people chase storms. I'm chased by them.

Quoting Jedkins01:


Its actually not dusty, it is embedded in a small area of deep tropical moisture greater than 2.00 inch PW.

There is dry air nearby though within close proximity, if it pulls it in, its done.

Its suffering from a lack of warm waters, which is creating a lack of convective forcing. There is a severe lack of energy. Also, the air is very stable, indicated by the stratocumulus close proximity to the depression.

Seeing stratocumulus clouds near and around a tropical cyclone is downright weird.

Instability is atrociously low here. Its a amazing this thing ever managed a low pressure system here, talk about a vigorous wave.


I know, 'drycane' didn't have the same ring to it.
Quoting sar2401:

You think that's strange? The storms that gave me four inches of rain earlier today moved on into Georgia...and now are they are retrograding back toward me again. This is the strangest July I've ever seen.


BTW July in the DC area has been like I remember from the 70s and 80s. It's not one unbroken death ridge most Julys here contrary to popular myth. We've been dry but that's pretty common here in between occasional deluges.

And this is the first July in five years that I've had Lima Beans set pods and produce (used to be every summer until 2010)


Still looks hooked to ITCZ.... and not even enough convection atm to fill one of the 2-degree square boxes on that grid....
If you put your face really really close to the computer monitor, then TD-2 looks like a giant.
Quoting NatureIsle:
  • This Depression will likely defy ALL THE NAYSAYERS AND I predict that in the next 24hrs TD2 will be in a little more favorable environment Re: SST and will have gained Tropical storm designation by then from the NHC. 
I DO KNOW THAT There have been WORSE looking Tropical storms than TD2.. CASES IN POINT INCLUDE:- T.S Bill of 2003 and Jerry of 2001 etc. As was rightly noted by Steve on Behalf of Dr. Masters- the call on the forecast intensity for TD 2 might have been a bit too conservative- that’s given the forecasts of the Specialized Tropical Cyclone Models. I hold that the exclusive agreement with the large scale models at this stage in the system’s development is most likely a bit too Premature...
IN FACT, there is a precedent for such systems – even those which have been open or even weak tropical waves –That have quickly been able to organize east of the Lesser Antilles islands- resulting in high-end tropical storms right over the islands. Systems like Cindy-1993, & Debby -1994 easily come to mind, & of course Chantal of 2013 also.
But ONE OF THE MOST RECENT AND SIGNIFICANT CASES WAS T.S. HELENE OF THE 2012 SEASON WHICH ALTHOUGH IT WAS OFFICIALLY DOWNGRADED DUE TO ‘CONFIRMED’ DEGENERATION BY A HURRICANE HUNTER’S FLIGHT –PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN A COUPLE OF THE ISLANDS;Eg. THE ISLAND OF DOMINICA WHERE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSED NEAREST HAD LIGHT TO MODERATE DAMAGE AT SEVERAL SPOTS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONSISTENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ACTUAL TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM & Not a Truly ‘DOWNGRADED’ SYSTEM. SO AGAIN IT SEEMS INCREASINGLY APPARENT THAT –‘The large scale global models do not have a handle on this small system, but the specialized Tropical Cyclone models, initialized at 18Z, forecast the storm to track towards the CARIB, reaching the eastern CARIB late in the day THU or by early Friday’ –May be more accurate. Quoting Steve:-‘The statistically based intensity models show the cyclone becoming a tropical storm by then, though the more reliable dynamical models are NOT forecasting the system to show significant intensification…’ The statistically based intensity models may prove to in fact be RIGHT Despite wind shear and drier air factors.
God Bless us All!


If you think bold font and CAPS help make your case, well...God bless you!


Pushing out to the N again....
Quoting sar2401:

If you think bold font and CAPS help make your case, well...God bless you!


I dunno, STORMTOP would have argued otherwise.
Quoting 699. sar2401:


If you think bold font and CAPS help make your case, well...God bless you!


Sar maybe it was trying to help the older bloggers see. Poor bloke just was trying to help you.
Note to SAR:
At least you got a visit from those elusive Indians!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 1050 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula have become more concentrated
since this afternoon. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
coast of Mexico later this week. Some development of this system
is possible during the weekend as it moves westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
705. red0
Quoting 698. HimacaneBrees:

If you put your face really really close to the computer monitor, then TD-2 looks like a giant.


I did this and I think I can see an eye!
hey guys just popping in at this late hour I don't know why I just can't sleep

Quoting 700. BahaHurican:



Pushing out to the N again....

yeah I see that it seems like its forcing itself to develop some sort of band feature on the N side

infact I do have to say its actually looking better now starting to become more organized compared to that mess we got just after sundown and with D-Max starting up I'm expecting convection to increase as it is now starting to do and maybe even see it expand and grow some in size
as I say its a wait and watch game
Quoting 694. CybrTeddy:



I know, 'drycane' didn't have the same ring to it.


lol
708. JRRP
well TD2 in 20kts shear but now entering an area of 5-10kts shear that extends from about 46W/47W-65W lets see what it can do with that bit of help

also now entering waters that are a tad bit warmer
Quoting 708. JRRP:



hmm the new one is in and Its doing what I thought it was doing
which is its pushing the SAL out of its way
so thats 3 thing that may just help this TD to live
Quoting 693. georgevandenberghe:



Me not want. Storms please stay away from my home and hearth.

However I learned when I was three that the atmosphere does not always give me what I want.

As I've said before, some people chase storms. I'm chased by them.




Yeah, no foolin'.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

The compact depression has not changed much during the past several
hours. The system is producing a small area of deep convection near
the center and a few fragmented bands mainly on the south side of
the circulation. An ASCAT pass around 0010 UTC captured the western
half of the system and indicated that winds are light and variable
to the south of the center, suggesting that the system has not
become better defined.

The dynamical models, both regional and global, are in good
agreement in showing the system weakening into a trough by the time
it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The primary reasons for the
weakening in these models appear to be dry air and possibly
mid-level shear. The SHIPS and LGEM models show the cyclone gaining
strength, but this scenario seems unlikely given the
expected unfavorable environmental conditions. The official
intensity forecast follows the trend in the dynamical model
guidance, and is the same as the previous forecast.

Satellite fixes suggest that depression has moved a little to the
north of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate
is 280/14. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should
keep it moving westward to west-northwestward during the next few
days. This track takes the depression, or its remnants, over the
Lesser Antilles in 2 to 3 days. The NHC track forecast is a little
to the north of the previous one, primarily to account for the
initial position, and lies fairly close to the multi-model consensus
TVCA.
AL, 02, 2014072206, 01, CARQ, 0, 121N, 457W, 30, 1012, TD,
714. FOREX
Looks like wannabe Bertha will be south of her forecast point .
I put TD2 LLCOC near 12.0N/12.1N 45.9W/46.0W

also I can now see small red spots on TD2 AVN floater loop
starting to look interesting
Quoting 714. FOREX:

Looks like wannabe Bertha will be south of her forecast point .

yes that seems to be the case
Still in ITCZ/ monsoon trough



And like you said less shear for a while

719. FOREX
Last frame on floater it looks a bit better than earlier tonight.


Matmo getting closer to landfall.
TD2 is looking a bit more vigorous, but not enough to get Bertha pinned on it at 5 a.m. .....
722. FOREX
Quoting 721. BahaHurican:

TD2 is looking a bit more vigorous, but not enough to get Bertha pinned on it at 5 a.m. .....


I agree, but maybe by 11am.
the 06Z model runs on TD2 is further S and W than the last run
724. FOREX
Quoting 723. wunderkidcayman:

the 06Z model runs on TD2 is further S and W than the last run


I believe this trend will continue.
And tracking west...it may stay south of forecast track for a while longer

220300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 45.1W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (02L), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM
EAST OF BARBADOS, HAS TRACKED WEST AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220000Z IS 10 FEET. THERE ARE NO 12FT SEAS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
Quoting 724. FOREX:



I believe this trend will continue.


The trend will continue in spite of a deep trough forecast to develop over the US east coast in as little as three days?
727. FOREX
Quoting 726. KoritheMan:



The trend will continue in spite of a deep trough forecast to develop over the US east coast in as little as three days?


Let's just say it avoids the dry air for the most part. Is the high shear unavoidable even if it stays moving West?
Quoting 727. FOREX:



Let's just say it avoids the dry air for the most part. Is the high shear unavoidable even if it stays moving West?


The high shear is actually even more unavoidable if it moves west.

The Caribbean is not favorable.
Good evening/early morning

Just checking in. Killing time while my dog does her thing outside. I hate these "four-in-the-morning I gotta go" yelps!

Quoting 730. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good evening/early morning

Just checking in. Killing time while my dog does her thing outside. I hate these "four-in-the-morning I gotta go" yelps!


Geez, Lindy, even your dog is trying to find out what's going on with this thing.....

LOL

Some pretty intense rainfall rates here....

Quoting BahaHurican:
Geez, Lindy, even your dog is trying to find out what's going on with this thing.....

LOL



Honest, I didn't tell her!

I was busy after work with my forever stream of mangos so only had a few minutes to check the blog. Now that she's got me wide awake....
Quoting 733. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Honest, I didn't tell her!

I was busy after work with my forever stream of mangos so only had a few minutes to check the blog. Now that she's got me wide awake....
lol.... I've been in and out, checking our our tender baby of a storm.... also waiting to see what NHC is going to say.
Quoting BahaHurican:
lol.... I've been in and out, checking our our tender baby of a storm.... also waiting to see what NHC is going to say.


What time is that expected?
24 Hour Shear forecast



48 Hour shear forecast



Hmmm.... looks like it's building a "wv shield" to offset the dry air to the N....

Quoting 735. VirginIslandsVisitor:



What time is that expected?


45-50 minutes.
Quoting 730. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good evening/early morning

Just checking in. Killing time while my dog does her thing outside. I hate these "four-in-the-morning I gotta go" yelps!




Do dogs like mangos?
Quoting 735. VirginIslandsVisitor:



What time is that expected?
4:30 or 4:45 most likely
741. FOREX
Quoting 736. HurricaneHunterJoe:

24 Hour Shear forecast



48 Hour shear forecast






Looks like it needs to move wnw and track just south of Cuba for best development conditions. Am I reading the map correctly?
Quoting 737. BahaHurican:

Hmmm.... looks like it's building a "wv shield" to offset the dry air to the N....




"Our little fren " is trying it's best!
Quoting 742. HurricaneHunterJoe:



"Our little fren " is trying its best!
Doesn't look like "fizzle" just yet....
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


"Our little fren " is trying it's best!


Hiya Joe

Good to see you again!
Quoting 741. FOREX:



Looks like it needs to move wnw and track just south of Cuba for best development conditions. Am I reading the map correctly?


Yes, but there is a line of blue from like Bermuda to almost Western Caribbean from like 15-40 mph of shear. Look at #729 again and see that line of orange and yellow and you will see what I mean. " Our little fren " has his work cut out for him.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Do dogs like mangos?


lol....not particularly, especially when the grandbaby decides to use them as balls and pitches them at her. She's found a new hiding place under the desk when he's around.
Quoting 744. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Hiya Joe

Good to see you again!


So, they running you ragged eh? Good Morning Lindy! Nice to see you as always! Maybe " Our little fren " come visit you?.....no?
Quoting 745. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Yes, but there is a line of blue from like Bermuda to almost Eastern Caribbean from like 15-40 mph of shear. Look at #729 again and see that line of orange and yellow and you will see what I mean. " Our little fren " has his work cut out for him.
I'm just trying to see if it can make it up by Lindy those. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof....
749. FOREX
Quoting 745. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Yes, but there is a line of blue from like Bermuda to almost Eastern Caribbean from like 15-40 mph of shear. Look at #729 again and see that line of orange and yellow and you will see what I mean. " Our little fren " has his work cut out for him.


I see it. Yes it will be a tough road no matter which direction it goes. Well maybe it will get a bit stronger and remain partially intact in a few days.
Quoting 745. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Yes, but there is a line of blue from like Bermuda to almost Eastern Caribbean from like 15-40 mph of shear. Look at #729 again and see that line of orange and yellow and you will see what I mean. " Our little fren " has his work cut out for him.


Also, the shear vector will be blowing toward the same direction as the depression's movement. An environment of lower shear may only be illusory in such a situation, especially given the sprawling nature of the convection and the small size of the circulation envelope.
Quoting 746. VirginIslandsVisitor:



lol....not particularly, especially when the grandbaby decides to use them as balls and pitches them at her. She's found a new hiding place under the desk when he's around.


LOL...........my dog would throw them back....if she didnt eat them....I mean my dog likes broccli!
I've got to say that rain would be SO welcomed over here. I'm sure that CaribBoy would be a happy camper too!
Quoting 748. BahaHurican:

I'm just trying to see if it can make it up by Lindy those. Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof....


Im pulling for him to get some rain to the islands also. I haven't see CaribBoy........he must be in funk mood.
Quoting 753. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Im pulling for him to get some rain to the islands also. I haven't see CaribBoy........he must be in funk mood.
Poor Caribboy... he expects nothing of this system..... says even if it lasts to the Antilles it'll go south of them, so they'll get no rain....

Notice that shortwave over PR?

Quoting BahaHurican:
Poor Caribboy... he expects nothing of this system..... says even if it lasts to the Antilles it'll go south of them, so they'll get no rain....



Then that means we won't get any of it either. He's not that far from here.
Grothar is thinking it'll pass N of S Lucia, and maybe even N of you guys... I'd say there's a little hope left.... IF it lasts through this dry air to get to the Antilles.

So far about 1/2 way to 50W...
Looks like Typhoon Matmo will come ashore between Taitung and Hualien Taiwan


http://www.wannasurf.com/spot/Asia/Taiwan/map/map _ga-taiwan-surf-spot.gif

Ah... 5 a.m. is out....

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

There has been little change in the appearance of the depression in
overnight infrared satellite imagery. The cyclone continues to
produce a small area of convection that is organized into a band
over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. The
initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is
supported by a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 2.0.

As previous advisories have noted, the environment ahead of the
depression does not favor strengthening. Dry air and an increase in
shear are expected to cause weakening during the next day or two,
and all of the dynamical models show the system becoming a trough of
low pressure by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The NHC
forecast follows this reasoning and calls for dissipation in 2 to
3 days.

The center of the depression has been difficult to locate overnight,
but it appears to still be moving westward or 280 degrees at 14 kt.
The depression or its remnants are forecast to continue moving
westward to west-northwestward to the south of a strong deep-layer
ridge during the next few days. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, but has shifted southward this cycle. As a result, the
new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 12.2N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 13.0N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 13.5N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.5N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
WTNT42 KNHC 220832
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

There has been little change in the appearance of the depression in
overnight infrared satellite imagery. The cyclone continues to
produce a small area of convection that is organized into a band
over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. The
initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is
supported by a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 2.0.

As previous advisories have noted, the environment ahead of the
depression does not favor strengthening. Dry air and an increase in
shear are expected to cause weakening during the next day or two,
and all of the dynamical models show the system becoming a trough of
low pressure by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The NHC
forecast follows this reasoning and calls for dissipation in 2 to
3 days.

The center of the depression has been difficult to locate overnight,
but it appears to still be moving westward or 280 degrees at 14 kt.
The depression or its remnants are forecast to continue moving
westward to west-northwestward to the south of a strong deep-layer
ridge during the next few days. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, but has shifted southward this cycle. As a result, the
new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 12.2N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 13.0N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 13.5N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.5N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
Okay, this gal is off to catch a few z's now. Thanks for the company and catch up with you again soon!



Taiwan has some serious mountains....bad for flash floods!
Quoting 762. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Okay, this gal is off to catch a few z's now. Thanks for the company and catch up with you again soon!


gn Lindy!
the other interesting thing I'm noticing in the most recent surface analysis is that the ITCZ is almost up near the Orinoco Delta in eastern Venezuela.... that's a BIG change from just 10 days ago.... when IIRC it was hanging down on the other side of Surinam...
767. FOREX
TD 02 seems to be gaining in size a bit. I think a lot of people will be surprised when they wake up. Many here said poof by morning.
Good morning.

Hopefully what the San Juan NWS expects from what may be left of TD Two dumps plenty of rain to aliviate the drought we are going thru.

FOR OUR AREA...STILL EXPECTED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA
BY FRIDAY. LATEST 22/00Z GFS COMPUTER MODEL RUN SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 2.0 INCHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. STAY TUNED FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL022014
500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

There has been little change in the appearance of the depression in
overnight infrared satellite imagery. The cyclone continues to
produce a small area of convection that is organized into a band
over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. The
initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is
supported by a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 2.0.

As previous advisories have noted, the environment ahead of the
depression does not favor strengthening. Dry air and an increase in
shear are expected to cause weakening during the next day or two,
and all of the dynamical models show the system becoming a trough of
low pressure by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The NHC
forecast follows this reasoning and calls for dissipation in 2 to
3 days.
772. MahFL
Quoting 726. KoritheMan:



The trend will continue in spite of a deep trough forecast to develop over the US east coast in as little as three days?

TD2 is forecast to be dissipated in 3 days.
Quoting MahFL:

TD2 is forecast to be dissipated in 3 days.


Yep, its a hostile environment out there. Little TD2 surrounded by dry air and about to enter increasing shear.

TD2 looks to be increasing in size. it continues to fight. sudden burst of convection is the reaction to the increase of SST it is now traversing over. could be an interesting day full of surprises.
who knows? nhc website again....dead
776. MahFL
I wonder if those storms ahead of TD2 can moisten things up a little bit ?
778. MahFL
Quoting 775. islander101010:

who.knows?...nhc.website=dead


The NHC is up, you need to contact your ISP or see if you have somethig on your PC blocking the NHC, did you do a trace route to the NHC ?
Quoting 767. FOREX:

TD 02 seems to be gaining in size a bit. I think a lot of people will be surprised when they wake up. Many here said poof by morning.
It was looking better yesterday.
T.D. #2 Hanging on this Morning.

Still trying to build up convection near the COC. If it's forward path keeps trending more southward, maybe ... it might have more of a "chance" to get its act together ... today. Needs to follow the tail of convection building to its west .. before running into the wall of more shear and drier air.

Our 2nd tropical cyclone of the season. Not too shabby for those counting the numbers! There are so many ATL hurricane seasons in the past where NOTHING happened in the month of July.
781. beell
Quoting 635. Grothar:



Remember this, beel>




Sorry about the late reply, Gro. I fell over last night right after that post. Who could forget Marco? Primary driver for this one was CCC (cyclonic coastal curvature). Anticyclonic coastal curvature (ACC) is thought to be primarily responsible for the "Tampa Shield"*.
*Open Source Initiative Contributor/Discordia University/04/01/2010

Amazon rainforest dampness...



Sahara dry...

783. SLU
Hang in there buddy. Only 1000 miles to shore. Don't let the downcasting from the naysayers discourage you.

before the sixties chance this cyclone never would of been spotted thanks for the anaylises
785. beell
Anything with a low level spin is always worth watching until it is gone. Not a bad rule in the general sense.

The uncertainty for TD 2 may hinge upon whether the LLC remains with the wave structure tracking across the NE corner of the Caribbean into the SW Atlantic and up into the sub-tropical ridge or detaches and slides along the southern side of PR/DR. Too early for me to speculate on land interaction and system maintenence. Low level moisture should be on the increase towards the end of the week and shear still appears to be on the low side.
786. beell

06Z GFS 700 mb Theta-e @ 72 hrs. TD2 over Puerto Rico and heading towards dissapation in the sub-tropical ridge.
NAM brings 92L (or what's left of 92L) north of the Islands caught up in the circulation around the Atlantic High.



watch out for invest 91E
Is Two setting up a groove in the atmosphere and pulling some of that warm water further north so that the next African wave passing has more fuel and a clearer direction?
Quoting 787. Sfloridacat5:

NAM brings 92L (or what's left of 92L) north of the Islands caught up in the circulation around the Atlantic High.



Why are some on are still calling it 92L when it is now TD2 ? Get with the program guys
92L is expected to dissipate before it gets to the islands.
Quoting 791. Sfloridacat5:

92L is expected to dissipate before it gets to the islands.



Its not 92L its td 2 get it right a and your telling us stuff we all ready no tell us something we dont no
793. MahFL
Quoting 791. Sfloridacat5:

92L is expected to dissipate...

92L is history, it's TD2.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221150
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure located about 1050 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days. Some development of this
system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An area of low pressure could form in a few days about 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Some development of
this system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Do we have any South China bloggers on here that are experiencing these Typhoons?
oh boy...wouldn't pin my hopes on this one



Hmm wind shear has drop two 5kt where td 2 is heading where ok last night's that same area had 30 two 40kt of shear td two is in a area of 10kt of shear but it will drop two less then 5kt of shear



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure located about 1050 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days. Some development of this
system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. An area of low pressure could form in a few days about 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Some development of
this system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

WOW!!!
It's very possible TD 2 not longer has a closed circulation, I don't see nearly the turning we did yesterday on satellite loops. The 12z ATCF update will be out soon. There's a good chance they'll hang onto it for at least another advisory package but that one may be the last.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure located about 1050 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days. Some development of this
system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. An area of low pressure could form in a few days about 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Some development of
this system is possible by the weekend as it moves generally
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Still alive per the new ATCF update.

AL, 02, 2014072212, , BEST, 0, 124N, 472W, 30, 1012, TD
Good Morning. NCEP Caribbean Desk hoping that 92L will provide drought relief for Puerto Rico and nearby locations as many noted on here yesterday afternoon. Hope it pans out for them:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
740 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE NHC HAS TD-TWO OVER THE FRENCH ISLES EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING TO AN OPEN WAVE. GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW
REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE QUICKLY PULLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS
THE PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST INTENSE OVER THE VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS IS GOING TO BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW TUTT ALOFT EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF IT WERE TO HOLD...IT COULD THEN INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN SUPPORT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. BUT IF THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY...WE WOULD QUICKLY LOOSE THE UPPER SUPPORT RESULTING IN
LESSER AMOUNTS. AS A RESULT...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL TO EXPECT...WITH THE GFS AND UKMET APPEARING MORE
OPTIMISTIC THAN THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BRING WELCOME RELIEF TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE ISLANDS.

FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

Quoting 799. MAweatherboy1:

It's very possible TD 2 not longer has a closed circulation, I don't see nearly the turning we did yesterday on satellite loops. The 12z ATCF update will be out soon. There's a good chance they'll hang onto it for at least another advisory package but that one may be the last.


Center of circulation is now exposed,bye TD2
Quoting 801. MAweatherboy1:

Still alive per the new ATCF update.

AL, 02, 2014072212, , BEST, 0, 124N, 472W, 30, 1012, TD


GOOD!!
TD 02 is like a black cat with 200 lives instead of 9..its been killed off so many times by bloggers but still keeps defying forecasts..bahamas will need to watch this very carefully..

interesting that more NCEP ensembles is now picking back on TD 02..could this be a trend?

06z


00z
TD2 will become a big time problem in the Bahamas based on shear on the ecmwf and gfs models and largescale divergence signature. You will see!
Quoting 802. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. NCEP Caribbean Desk hoping that 92L will provide drought relief for Puerto Rico and nearby locations as many noted on here yesterday afternoon. Hope it pans out for them:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
740 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE NHC HAS TD-TWO OVER THE FRENCH ISLES EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING TO AN OPEN WAVE. GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW
REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE QUICKLY PULLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS
THE PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST INTENSE OVER THE VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS IS GOING TO BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW TUTT ALOFT EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF IT WERE TO HOLD...IT COULD THEN INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN SUPPORT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. BUT IF THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY...WE WOULD QUICKLY LOOSE THE UPPER SUPPORT RESULTING IN
LESSER AMOUNTS. AS A RESULT...GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL TO EXPECT...WITH THE GFS AND UKMET APPEARING MORE
OPTIMISTIC THAN THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BRING WELCOME RELIEF TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE ISLANDS.

FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)




Its TD2 not 92L get it right you guys


Shear in 5 days in Bahamas when remnant llc will be there.

Morning again all...



Matmao looks very close to landfall....
NAVGEM has TD 2 off S FL in 5 days
Latest from the NHC.

"The environment ahead of the
depression does not favor strengthening. Dry air and an increase in
shear are expected to cause weakening during the next day or two,
and all of the dynamical models show the system becoming a trough of
low pressure by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The NHC
forecast follows this reasoning and calls for dissipation in 2 to
3 days."
TD02 seems to be holding on by the skin of its teeth this morning and racing towards 13N 50W. Not sure if that fast forward speed is helping or harming....

816. MahFL
Oh a burst of convection :).
817. MahFL
Go NAVGEM !
Quoting 806. ncstorm:
TD 02 is like a black cat with 200 lives instead of 9..its been killed off so many times by bloggers but still keeps defying forecasts..bahamas will need to watch this very carefully..

interesting that more NCEP ensembles is now picking back on TD 02..could this be a trend?

06z


00z


Conditions out in front of TD 02 are continually changing. Possibility exists that it strengthens some more and that changes everything. Fun to watch it "thread the needle." Hoping it brings beneficial rains where needed and takes a nice turn and parks between FL and Bermuda in my swell window.

Relatively cool July weather for the Pee Dee region SC. I don't see anything over 90F on the 10-day. Strange. This is normally "one screen door from hell" season. Feels more like mid-Sep.
prcane4u you should be happy you might get some rain out of it.
Quoting 815. BahaHurican:

TD02 seems to be holding on by the skin of its teeth this morning and racing towards 13N 50W. Not sure if that fast forward speed is helping or harming....


Keep watching all day just in case transform in a cat5
Quoting 819. sporteguy03:

prcane4u you should be happy you might get some rain out of it.
I forgot that,you are right
Quoting 818. HaoleboySurfEC:



Conditions out in front of TD 02 are continually changing. Possibility exists that it strengthens some more and that changes everything. Fun to watch it "thread the needle." Hoping it brings beneficial rains where needed and takes a nice turn and parks between FL and Bermuda in my swell window.

Relatively cool July weather for the Pee Dee region SC. I don't see anything over 90F on the 10-day. Strange. This is normally "one screen door from hell" season. Feels more like mid-Sep.
What I'm now wondering is, if we are having this wonderful fall-like wx now, are we going to be having the "one screen door from hell" wx in September? That is an uncomfortable thought....


Click to enlarge..
Quoting 821. prcane4you:
Keep watching all day just in case transform in a cat5
Seriously doubt that. I'm actually watching to see if it'll last long enough to bring rain to the NE Caribbean, where drought conditions are getting ready to overwhelm PR and places to the east of that.

I'm staying hopeful. What about you??
Quoting 823. BahaHurican:

What I'm now wondering is, if we are having this wonderful fall-like wx now, are we going to be having the "one screen door from hell" wx in September? That is an uncomfortable thought....
Good morning Baha...I believe weather, tropical and otherwise will have some unexpected surprises for many.
One would have to live in PR to be hopeful Baha..
Good morning

Just a quick post for now. The satellite presentation of TD2 is much less impressive than late yesterday afternoon and it gives the appearance of being very close to opening up as a wave once again if not already open.

Hopefully the next Ascat pass will give enough coverage to determine whether there is still a closed low but IMO it is touch and go right now and day time heating combined with the other negatives will not help any.
Another cool snap in a week. This winter could be stormy if this pattern were to continue.

Quoting 823. BahaHurican:
What I'm now wondering is, if we are having this wonderful fall-like wx now, are we going to be having the "one screen door from hell" wx in September? That is an uncomfortable thought....


Yes, what will Aug and Sep bring? Will the heat return? Will it be conducive to land-falling storms? Should be interesting :-)

Dunno whether to laugh or shake my head at all the people running around jeering because TD02 seems unlikely to make it to named storm. It's as if they can't understand this little system has ALREADY beat the odds to get to the point where it is at all. When I was observing the conditions last week Monday, I was confidently expecting something like TD02 was possible, at the earliest, NEXT week Monday, and much more likely the FOLLOWING Monday [first Monday in Aug]. That it was able to spin up to TD at all in the face of the still very hostile conditions out there says a lot about it. IT DOESN'T HAVE TO DO ANYTHING ELSE. Just getting to 50W as more than a dry dusty Twave is an accomplishment in my book.

I hope it holds together long enough to bring some rain to the Leewards, and maybe even PR, but I'm not really expecting it to. Nevertheless, running around like a squawking chicken because it's not going to be yet another cat 5 in july just seems so.... pointless.
Link

Latest ships 5 day parameter outlook. The dry air is at a minimum right now and interestingly the system continues to produce convection. Latest shear maximum is only forecasted to reach 26 kt. Based on these 2 we can conclude the vorticity with the system will not die down and emerge in the Bahamas. Both rh/ and shear will favor a hurricane organizing in the Bahamas/Turks islands!


BIG ?
Quoting 828. ncstorm:

One would have to live in PR to be hopeful Baha..
Looks like even living in PR can't make some people think positive .... lol ...
Quoting 833. Camille33:

Link

Latest ships 5 day parameter outlook. The dry air is at a minimum right now and interestingly the system continues to produce convection. Latest shear maximum is only forecasted to reach 26 kt. Based on these 2 we can conclude the vorticity with the system will not die down and emerge in the Bahamas. Both rh/ and shear will favor a hurricane organizing in the Bahamas/Turks islands!
I am absolutely not plussing this, no matter how right you turn out to be....
Quoting 835. BahaHurican:

Looks like even living in PR can't make some people think positive .... lol ...


again..one MUST live in PR in order to appreciate the potential set up..LOL..

I have a good guess who our resident PR blogger is..
Well TD2 is looking better than it did before now circular before it was elongated
Now it's just the matter of getting that convection from the S-SW half to the N-NE half
I'd put the LLCOC near 12.2N 47.2W it's not naked well only a bit on the NE half

What's interesting is the convection starting to pop on the W side of the system within the ITCZ I want to see what this system will do when it gets in that...it should be a positive reaction and this may help develop the convection needed...the system should reach the 50°W mark when this happens
Before I run outta here...

1. The old timers around here know you don't take ur wx-eye off a system till the last cloud is gone or it is over the Arctic Circle.... we know from multiple cat 5s of experience that a storm can indeed come back to bite you... multiple zombie storms have come back to devastate parts of the Bahamas. You jeer - I'll observe.

2. Somebody needs to keep posting the Matmou info... I still haven't figured out how to make the radar loops of the storm post in the blog, and they are pretty impressive. Since it's likely to make landfall in the next couple hours, would be great to have the imagery.

3. Didn't I notice a bunch of orange crayon marks over in the EPac?

Gotta go. Ya'll stay cool and attentive.
So much for thr next big thing in the Atlantic.lol lol.Good job nhc.
Quoting 840. washingtonian115:

So much for thr next big thing in the Atlantic.lol lol.Good job nhc.
This was actually always the next "little" thing.... lol.... really gone now...
844. MahFL
Convection is starting to push out strongly to the west on TD2.
weeeeeeeeee'......


Yes your right :).I'am looking forward to the snow :).And with these impressive troughs and cool shots in July I can only imagine what winter will be like.

Sorry T.D 2 won't be the next Katrina.
Td 2 is done
848. MahFL
Plenty of moisture being created by TD2.

Tropical Depression 02L

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 JUL 2014 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 12:18:17 N Lon : 47:11:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1014.5mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.6 2.6

Center Temp : -21.5C Cloud Region Temp : -36.6C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in MD GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1016mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.2 degrees




850. DDR
Good morning
Its still Raining(5 days now) in T&T,im expecting another 4-6inches by the end of the week, maybe even more.
Ooh Oooh Oooh Oooh
Ooh Oooh Oooh
I found a lucky charm
I dressed it up with love
I crossed the Seven Seas to you
Will it be enough?
And I will be a rainbow
Oh, while your storm is gone
And I will bring the song for you
And I will carry on
Ooh Oooh Oooh


Washingtonian115,

again..not one single soul on this blog refer to this storm as a Cat5 but you..

you the only insinuating that its the next Katrina or Ivan by putting it out there..just you..only you..you still have not provided any comments to where someone else said it..I'm still waiting just like you still waiting on snow..

I will be back later..maybe then I'll see your evidence?

until then enjoy the gif..






TD2 has lifted clear of the ITCZ and this is reflected in the deterioration of the convection. The fast forward motion due to the proximity of the ridge to the North has now displaced what is left of the convection to the West of the low center. The next move could be the exposure of the circulation center or opening up as a wave.

I am not writing it off just yet but the signs are not good at the moment.
Quoting 853. ncstorm:

Washingtonian115,

again..not one single soul on this blog refer to this storm as a Cat5 but you..

you the only insinuating that its the next Katrina or Ivan by putting it out there..just you..only you..you still have not provided any comments to where someone else said it..I'm still waiting just like you still waiting on snow..

I will be back later..maybe then I'll see your evidence?

until then enjoy the gif..







With the way people were cheering it on and making it seem like the next Georges headed for P.R.I don't need any proof.
Quoting 853. ncstorm:

Washingtonian115,

again..not one single soul on this blog refer to this storm as a Cat5 but you..

you the only insinuating that its the next Katrina or Ivan by putting it out there..just you..only you..you still have not provided any comments to where someone else said it..I'm still waiting just like you still waiting on snow..

I will be back later..maybe then I'll see your evidence?

until then enjoy the gif..







Congratulations for this comment,certain people here thinks they are experts.
Quoting 839. BahaHurican:

1. The old timers around here know you don't take ur wx-eye off a system till the last cloud is gone or it is over the Arctic Circle.... we know from multiple cat 5s of experience that a storm can indeed come back to bite you... multiple zombie storms have come back to devastate parts of the Bahamas. You jeer - I'll observe.

I just downloaded last night's run on my phone - slow - and about halfway thru, 3 or 4 frames showed a
center re-loc. That takes weight and momentum off a storm, especially one that's been sprinting at 17mph.
There is still some moisture envelope hundreds of miles to its North that 2 can wrap in as he approaches
the gauntlet of 55W.
Well visible loop show it has some good low level structure now it's just convection that is needed

I think we may start seeing that later today

Matmou Rainbow Loop

Good Morning, boys and girls.

Quoting 857. washingtonian115:

With the way people were cheering it on and making it seem like the next Georges headed for P.R.I don't need any proof.
Goodmorning everyone, nobody is making it seem like that either. We all are wishing for some rain for that part of the world since they are in a drought. In fact, I rather see people wishcast beneficial rains, rather than a Cat. 5. At least for the sane people in this world.
864. MahFL
Quoting 860. wunderkidcayman:

Well visible loop show it has some good low level structure now it's just convection that is needed

I think we may start seeing that later today



And what makes you "think" that ?
Quoting 835. BahaHurican:

Looks like even living in PR can't make some people think positive .... lol ...
LOl,lol,lol,lol i cant stop laughing.
Quoting 863. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Goodmorning everyone, nobody is making it seem like that either. We all are wishing for some rain for that part of the world since they are in a drought. In fact, I rather see people wishcast beneficial rains, rather than a Cat. 5. At least for the sane people in this world.
I didn't say everyone.
And next time please read thoroughly next time.
Quoting 837. ncstorm:



again..one MUST live in PR in order to appreciate the potential set up..LOL..

I have a good guess who our resident PR blogger is..
Proudly from San Juan,P.R. to our NC fans.
Quoting 860. wunderkidcayman:

Well visible loop show it has some good low level structure now it's just convection that is needed

I think we may start seeing that later today




We just went through Diurnal Max. What makes you think we will see an increase later today with diurnal min and dry sinking air?
Poor little TD2 is not getting much support from any of the models. There is only a small chance of it reaching TS status, briefly, sometime tonight and perhaps tomorrow.



Quoting 856. kmanislander:

TD2 has lifted clear of the ITCZ and this is reflected in the deterioration of the convection. The fast froward motion due to the proximity of the ridge to the North has now displaced what is left of the convection to the West of the low center. The next move could be the exposure of the circulation center or opening up as a wave.

I am not writing it off just yet but the signs are not good at the moment.


If you look closely you can see the center just became exposed but it has a wall of convection around the center on N,NW,W sides and weaker convection on the SW,S sides

Also if you look W of the system there is build up of convection in the ITCZ which is moving N and as TD2 moves W the stuff in the ITCZ get wrapped up into the TD plus the lower 5kts of shear that it's about to run into... This just may help it
Dry air begins to knock out this poor little thing.Wishcasters for Cat5 are crying.
Quoting 873. Patrap:




Caribboy we are doomed
For the middle of July, an MDR development isn't bad, and there is that glass 1/32nd full chance it does a Claudette 2003 and barely survive the Caribbean and become a minor hurricane in the Gulf and rain on my yard.
Good Morning Class!

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Tue, 22 Jul 7:17 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Tue, 22 Jul 7:10 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
22 Jul 7:10 am PDT 66 47 50 NW 2G05 OK
There is no such thing as a "Minor" Hurricane in my view.

Sustained Winds of 74mph with Higher gust is a Hurricane, and a Hurricane can and usually does take Lives and damages property.
881. Mikla
Not looking good at all for TD2, but there does appear to be a sliver of hope.

The biggest problem is the dry air in front of it between 17k & 30k ft (based on GFS Sounding data). Even down to 7k feet it is pretty dry.

But, subsequent GFS runs have shown that shear has relaxed a bit in the next couple of days in path of TD2, though it is still 20-30kts by the time TD2 reaches the death point on the NHC plot. If the shear does relax a little more or moves a bit and TD2 can fight off the dry air for a little while longer.... who knows.

Of course, this analysis is based on the GFS data... so take it with a grain of salt.

The data I used can be found here and here
Quoting 868. jrweatherman:



We just went through Diurnal Max. What makes you think we will see an increase later today with diurnal min and dry sinking air?


DMIN/MAX hasn't been working like it's supposed to the last few years. Many mornings I wake up to rush
to behold the blossoming effect of DMAX and the storm has actually shrunk, only to start growing again in the AM, go figure.
883. MAstu
Quoting 861. Patrap:

Matmou Rainbow Loop



Major landslide potential in central Taiwan. Hopefully nobody gets hurt
884. MahFL
Quoting 870. wunderkidcayman:


...build up of convection in the ITCZ which is moving N ..


Indeed, it's a finely balance battle between the two air masses.
Quoting 862. Grothar:

Good Morning, boys and girls.




Good Morning Master!
886. MahFL
Quoting 883. MAstu:


Major landslide potential in central Taiwan. Hopefully nobody gets hurt

No point in hoping, people will die by the dozen, probably.
I want to see what TD2 does once it reaches 50W
How's " Our little fren " this morning?

TD2 has a runaway COC. Must be sensing Bertha coming up behind it. (Deja Vu-last year)

Quoting 873. Patrap:




Quoting 875. prcane4you:

Caribboy we are doomed

Models continue to shift further S

Either way I still say the models won't truly say where this thing is gonna go until we get recon data being input into the models

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 48.0W
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
Quoting 890. unknowncomic:

TD2 has a runaway COC. Must be sensing Bertha coming up behind it. (Deja Vu-last year)



I don't think that's the COC running away
Or maybe it is but it may be an old center with new one further W
Weak systems tends to do that
Quoting Grothar:
Poor little TD2 is not getting much support from any of the models. There is only a small chance of it reaching TS status, briefly, sometime tonight and perhaps tomorrow.



TD2 looks like a cloud recycling machine this morning, sucking 'em in from the west and spitting 'em out to the east. Looks almost like the storm is using that line of clouds out ahead of it as a moisture lifeline as it detaches from the ICTZ. TD2 is not looking great this morning but it may be able to hold together as long as it can stay south. Dare I say this storm may have a closer encounter with South America than the models show?
Quoting 893. wunderkidcayman:


I don't think that's the COC running away
Or maybe it is but it may be an old center with new one further W
Weak systems tends to do that

NHC seems to think so
New
12.6N 48.0W

Plenty of rain here early this morning and continuing. (Trinidad)
Wannabe Bertha is still ''iffy'' but the rains are very welcomed.

I expect the system to track further south than the models predict, based on it's lack of positive characteristics.

But then, these days nothing is going to plan, is it ?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I want to see what TD2 does once it reaches 50W
At 50W, water temps are higher, and Wind shear still low, so maybe a slight comeback, who knows, perhaps even get a name... the problem will be after 55W, with the TUTT waiting for her, or "it"....Watch and wait...still, hopeful, for some rain here.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
How's " Our little fren " this morning?

The patient is ailing but not dead. We should keep our voices down. Those in a coma can often still hear what we say. :-)
Quoting 887. wunderkidcayman:

I want to see what TD2 does once it reaches 50W




Not gonna be Margaritas and Nachos... needs to center-reloc again to the South to survive.
Quoting 852. Patrap:

Ooh Oooh Oooh Oooh
Ooh Oooh Oooh
I found a lucky charm
I dressed it up with love
I crossed the Seven Seas to you
Will it be enough?
And I will be a rainbow
Oh, while your storm is gone
And I will bring the song for you
And I will carry on
Ooh Oooh Oooh



One day..You'll look...To see I've gone...But tomorrow may rain so, I'll follow the sun....
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1035 AM EDT TUE 22 JULY 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JULY 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-052

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 23/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0102A CYCLONE
C. 23/1430Z
D. 13.6N 55.0W
E. 23/1630Z TO 23/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 76
A. 24/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 24/0315Z
D. 14.1N 58.6W
E. 24/0500Z TO 24/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
Quoting sar2401:
TD2 looks like a cloud recycling machine this morning, sucking 'em in from the west and spitting 'em out to the east. Looks almost like the storm is using that line of clouds out ahead of it as a moisture lifeline as it detaches from the ICTZ. TD2 is not looking great this morning but it may be able to hold together as long as it can stay south. Dare I say this storm may have a closer encounter with South America than the models show?
A close encounter with South America, doubted, the "little Bug" will move WNW and if the TuTT lift up, on time, perhaps stand a chance..., otherwise,..."capute"
Wishcaster alert
Latest NAM at 60 hrs show TD2 possibly skirting north coast of PR.

NHC says dead in 48 hours. Hard to argue with that. Conditions just are not favorable. August is quickly coming so let's see if conditions improve in the MDR.
Looking at the RGB floater loop
You can see the high level cirrus starting to spread out in just about all directions
Likely
This means that it's starting to grab hold onto that 5kts shear

Looking at AVN floater loop I can see that convection is starting to increase on the NE side

The moisture and building convection to the TDs W in association with the ITCZ moving N and is starting to wrap into the system

TD moving into that good zone at 50W
Quoting 901. GeoffreyWPB:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1035 AM EDT TUE 22 JULY 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JULY 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-052

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 23/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0102A CYCLONE
C. 23/1430Z
D. 13.6N 55.0W
E. 23/1630Z TO 23/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 76
A. 24/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 24/0315Z
D. 14.1N 58.6W
E. 24/0500Z TO 24/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.


Well that sucks I wish we could get recon flight tonight or early tomorrow
Oh well tomorrow afternoon then

909. MahFL
Quoting 908. wunderkidcayman:



Well that sucks I wish we could get recon flight tonight or early tomorrow
Oh well tomorrow afternoon then




They don't fly east of 55.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Well that sucks I wish we could get recon flight tonight or early tomorrow
Oh well tomorrow afternoon then

Is a matter of saving money,obviously, they are hoping that by tomorrow the recon flight wont be necessary....
Quoting 904. jrweatherman:

NHC says dead in 48 hours. Hard to argue with that. Conditions just are not favorable. August is quickly coming so let's see if conditions improve in the MDR.


Current C.V. activity is above and beyond what I'd expect for mid-late July, wouldn't you say?
I say TD 2 will stay S of PR and maybe DR it might cross W Haiti

As I said before weak systems stay W
Quoting 911. redwagon:



Current C.V. activity is above and beyond what I'd expect for mid-late July, wouldn't you say?


Yes, I would agree. But, we have to get this dry stable air to mix out. If that happens along with the current activity, it could get active. If not, then we could see a bunch of weak shallow systems (2013).
Quoting 910. HuracanTaino:

Is a matter of saving money,obviously, they are hoping that by tomorrow the recon flight wont be necessary....

Yeah it may be about saving money but I think it has to do more with the fact they can only fly out to 55W
Quoting unknowncomic:
Wishcaster alert
Latest NAM at 60 hrs show TD2 possibly skirting north coast of PR.

Will see, we need the rain here in PR, if so, bad news for the downcasters...
916. VR46L
Quoting 903. unknowncomic:

Wishcaster alert
Latest NAM at 60 hrs show TD2 possibly skirting north coast of PR.




Hmm some vorticity around NOLA too ....




current Gulf WV image
North of DR at 84hrs. Get excited Florida casters a trough (former TD2) heading in your general direction.

ireading back...looking at posts....i'm so confused :-)

NHC says dead in 48 hours. Hard to argue with that. Conditions just are not favorable. August is quickly coming so let's see if conditions improve in the MDR.



Looking at the RGB floater loop
You can see the high level cirrus starting to spread out in just about all directions
Likely
This means that it's starting to grab hold onto that 5kts shear

Looking at AVN floater loop I can see that convection is starting to increase on the NE side

The moisture and building convection to the TDs W in association with the ITCZ moving N and is starting to wrap into the system

TD moving into that good zone at 50W
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Yeah it may be about saving money but I think it has to do more with the fact they can only fly out to 55W
from the farmers almanac for the northeast....will it pan out???????

24th-27th. Tropical storm threat for Northeast coast, otherwise clear, hot; then local thunderstorms for New England.
TD2 growing in size
on the el nino front...time to ride that 3.4 roller coaster daily graph again....


Morning ASCAT-B Coastal of 02L.

Quoting 918. ricderr:

ireading back...looking at posts....i'm so confused :-)

NHC says dead in 48 hours. Hard to argue with that. Conditions just are not favorable. August is quickly coming so let's see if conditions improve in the MDR.



Looking at the RGB floater loop
You can see the high level cirrus starting to spread out in just about all directions
Likely
This means that it's starting to grab hold onto that 5kts shear

Looking at AVN floater loop I can see that convection is starting to increase on the NE side

The moisture and building convection to the TDs W in association with the ITCZ moving N and is starting to wrap into the system

TD moving into that good zone at 50W



Ok, I'll change my mind and go against the NHC.

Looks like it is strengthening to me
Clouds are expanding in all directions
Conditions improving out in front. Dry sinking air has mysteriously disappeared
No wind shear throughout the entire period
I'm heading to Home Depot now
Climate models that accidentally got El Niño right also show warming slowdown
We've been stuck in cool, La Niña state for most of the past decade.

by John Timmer - July 21 2014, 1:03pm MDT

Spend any amount of time reading climate arguments on the Internet, and you'll undoubtedly hear some version of the following argument: the Earth hasn't warmed in 17 years, and none of the climate models predicted that. Although there are a lot of problems with that statement (including the fact that it has warmed a bit), it's probably safe to say that the warming hasn't been as intense as many scientists expected.

Of course, to a scientist, unmet expectations are an opportunity, so a variety of papers have looked into why this has happened. They've found that, while volcanic eruptions seem to have contributed to the relatively slow rise in temperatures, a major player has been the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been stuck in a cool, La Niña state for most of the last decade. And, since climate models aren't expected to accurately forecast each El Niño, there would be no reason to expect that they would match the actual atmospheric record.

At least not intentionally. But some researchers have found that, simply by chance, a few of the models do produce an accurate ENSO pattern. And when those models are examined in detail, it turns out they match the existing temperature record pretty well.

The issue the new paper examines comes down to the difference between long-term climate trends and intermediate-term variations. In the long-term, the state of the climate is set by things like solar activity, orbital mechanics, and greenhouse gas levels, among other things. But on shorter time scales, things like volcanic activity and ocean cycles can have a profound effect on temperatures.

Coupled climate models that include both the atmosphere and the oceans accurately reproduce the behavior of the major ocean cycles, including the ENSO. But, since the onset of changes in the ocean is chaotic, the models generally don't get the timing right—the model may show an El Niño starting three years earlier than it does in reality
Ok, I'll change my mind and go against the NHC.

Looks like it is strengthening to me
Clouds are expanding in all directions
Conditions improving out in front. Dry sinking air has mysteriously disappeared
No wind shear throughout the entire period
I'm heading to Home Depot now


lol
Oh oh.

Looks like we're in for a second round of lighning induced wildfires igniting over the next 36 hours in Central and Eastern Oregon.

We've already got teams of firefighters here from as far away as Illinois. We're stretched pretty thin.

***
Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
729 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH COULD
START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS. STORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL OREGON AROUND MID-DAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY
LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Is a matter of saving money,obviously, they are hoping that by tomorrow the recon flight wont be necessary....

This storm is way east of what the HH planes normally fly. It's not a threat to land in the next 24 hours. This is not a difficult storm to analyze on satellite. It's barely a TD. There is a limited amount of money in the budget for flights. Makes perfect sense to me that they won't fly until tomorrow if looks like it's needed.
Climate models that accidentally got El Niño right also show warming slowdown
We've been stuck in cool, La Niña state for most of the past decade.


That is why the experts and/or authorities did not rush out and create panic with the public a few months ago. Sometimes we have to wait and let these events play out.
That is why the experts and/or authorities did not rush out and create panic with the public a few months ago. Sometimes we have to wait and let these events play out.

i think a lot of what sparks the excitement i/e panic...is looking at the daily values....i do as do many others...but you then have to stop and realize this is an event measured in months...if not..your perspective can become skewed
The East Pacific is a little busy today.

Quoting 925. jrweatherman:



Ok, I'll change my mind and go against the NHC.

Looks like it is strengthening to me
Clouds are expanding in all directions
Conditions improving out in front. Dry sinking air has mysteriously disappeared
No wind shear throughout the entire period
I'm heading to Home Depot now

I already beat you there!!.I got the plywood and everything! .
Quoting 922. wunderkidcayman:

TD2 growing in size




TD2 really needed all that moisture it cast off behind her... but looks like it's being replaced.
Here's the ASCAT-A 25km morning pass of 02L.

Quoting 905. wunderkidcayman:

Looking at the RGB floater loop
You can see the high level cirrus starting to spread out in just about all directions
Likely
This means that it's starting to grab hold onto that 5kts shear

Looking at AVN floater loop I can see that convection is starting to increase on the NE side

The moisture and building convection to the TDs W in association with the ITCZ moving N and is starting to wrap into the system

TD moving into that good zone at 50W
I'm sorry to say it but this thing looks terrible.
Quoting 916. VR46L:



Hmm some vorticity around NOLA too ....




current Gulf WV image


Area of low pressure progged to move westward and then sw into S. Texas. Increased rain chances for us
in S, Louisiana Wed-Thurs.
Quoting ricderr:
from the farmers almanac for the northeast....will it pan out???????

24th-27th. Tropical storm threat for Northeast coast, otherwise clear, hot; then local thunderstorms for New England.

It's already panned out. Some models show TD2 eventually headed to the NE, therefore the "threat" is established. Late July...hmm...really going out on a limb to predict clear and hot with local thunderstorms. Climatology sure wouldn't support that.

With forecasts like that, the Almanac just can't lose. :-)
Quoting Gearsts:
I'm sorry to say it but this thing looks terrible.

Not according to those who "wish" for a different outcome.
Quoting 933. washingtonian115:

I already beat you there!!.I got the plywood and everything! .
Thats a joke. This thing is nothing
Quoting 939. sar2401:


Not according to those who "wish" for a different outcome.
yeah specially those from NC
Quoting canehater1:


Area of low pressure progged to move westward and then sw into S. Texas. Increased rain chances for us
in S, Louisiana Wed-Thurs.

It's already in progress in Alabama. The storms that went through yesterday and gave me four inches of rain are now retrograding SW and the rain has started again. We've gone from nothing to more than a normal July in one day. This stalled front and ULL have lots of moisture with it. It's 74 degrees with 95% humidity and steady rain. Pretty strange for July in SE Alabama.
Quoting 940. prcane4you:

Thats a joke. This thing is nothing
I know.I was being sarcastic.
Looks like landfall....

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Skyepony:
Here's the ASCAT-A 25km morning pass of 02L.


Looks like it's already reverted to a tropical wave..
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014

The depression continues to produce deep convection in a band to the
west and southwest of the center and the initial intensity remains
30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. There is
no change to the intensity forecast reasoning, as the cyclone will
be moving through an environment of dry air and increasing shear
that will not favor strengthening. The global models and the HWRF
show the vortex weakening and opening up into a trough near the
Lesser Antilles by 48 hours or shortly thereafter. The NHC forecast
includes a 48-h point as a remnant low, but it would not be
surprising if the system had already dissipated by that time.

The initial motion estimate is 280/15, as the depression continues
to be steered by a deep-layer ridge to the north. A quick westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through
dissipation. The dynamical track model guidance remains in good
agreement on this scenario, and the new NHC track is largely an
update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 12.6N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 12.9N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 13.3N 53.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 13.9N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
Quoting 937. canehater1:



Area of low pressure progged to move westward and then sw into S. Texas. Increased rain chances for us
in S, Louisiana Wed-Thurs.


Good......



If the ITCZ really did lift North, what a moisture tap that would be.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The East Pacific is a little busy today.


"A little."
GEOS-5 still wants to open up 02L as the southern outflow starts hitting South America. The suppressing part of a Rosby-gravity wave is still weak & infront of it but this land coming may hinder it further.

Weather in FL is unsettled. I'm orange for lightning & if my hair is any indicator it should rain at some point.

952. MahFL
Quoting 910. HuracanTaino:

Is a matter of saving money,obviously, they are hoping that by tomorrow the recon flight wont be necessary....


No, they don't fly east of 55W.
Quoting 933. washingtonian115:

I already beat you there!!.I got the plywood and everything! .
I'm glad you're well prepared. I believe TD02 will thread the passage between PR and Hispaniola, track over the Bahamas picking up energy from the same warm waters that fueled Arthur, then follow his track over the Gulf Stream, paralleling the coast a little farther offshore and strengthening until it arrives offshore of Virginia. There it will encounter a blocking high that is working its way across the Eastern US and will be sitting East of New York, and the high will turn the hurricane West into the Chesapeake Bay where it will track up the Potomac River.
Quoting 950. Skyepony:

GEOS-5 still wants to open up 02L as the southern outflow starts hitting South America. The suppressing part of a Rosby-gravity wave is still weak & infront of it but this land coming may hinder it further.

Weather in FL is unsettled. I'm orange for lightning & if my hair is any indicator it should rain at some point.


and gee the humidity today is awful