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Tropical Storm Warnings for North Carolina as Arthur Heads North

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:27 PM GMT on July 02, 2014

Tropical Storm warnings are up for the coast of North Carolina as Tropical Storm Arthur heads north at 7 mph. The heaviest weather associated with Arthur is on its east and south sides, and a buoy 128 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida, on Arthur's east side, recorded sustained winds of 47 mph, gusting to 60 mph at 6:50 am EDT on Wednesday. Significant wave heights at the buoy were an impressive 17.4' this morning. Radar out of Melbourne, Florida on Wednesday morning showed that Arthur had built about 1/2 of an eyewall, on the northeast to southwest side of the center. Bands of heavy rain were affecting the east coast of Florida near Cape Canaveral Wednesday morning, but rainfall amounts from the storm have generally been less than one inch over Florida. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed a slow but steady increase in the intensity and areal coverage of Arthur's heavy thunderstorms, with the potential beginning of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds forming on the east side of the center. A CDO is a classic sign of an intensifying tropical storm that is approaching hurricane strength. However, the visible satellite loops also showed signs that Arthur is struggling with dry air. Arc-shaped bands of low cumulus clouds were racing away from the storm to the north of the center, indicating that dry air had gotten ingested into Arthur's heavy thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that were spreading out along the ocean surface. This process robs a tropical storm of moisture and energy, and means that Arthur has considerable work to do in order to moisten its environment before the storm can close off an eyewall and attain hurricane strength. The clockwise circulation of an upper level high pressure over Florida was bringing northerly winds over Arthur at high altitude, and these winds were creating light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. Water vapor satellite loops showed dry air to the north and west of Arthur.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Arthur as seen from the International Space Station at 6:42 am EDT Wednesday, July 2, 2014. Image credit: Reid Wiseman.


Figure 2. Melbourne, Florida radar image of Tropical Storm Arthur at 10:47 am EDT July 2, 2014.

Forecast for Arthur
The 12Z Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, between now and the time Arthur makes is closest approach to North Carolina on Friday morning. There will still be dry air to the storm's north and west, so I put the odds of rapid intensification into a Category 3 or stronger storm at just 10%. The presence of surface-based arc clouds radiating away from Arthur this morning likely means that the storm will not achieve hurricane strength on Wednesday. However, the four main intensity models used by NHC--the LGEM, SHIPS, GFDL, and HWRF--continue to be in remarkable agreement, predicting that Arthur will reach hurricane strength on Thursday, and peak at maximum sustained winds between 80 - 100 mph about the time Arthur is making its closest pass to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, on Friday morning. The models are also in good agreement on the track of Arthur. A trough of low pressure passing to the north will turn the storm northeastwards by Thursday, and cause Arthur to pick up speed. The Outer Banks of North Carolina will be the land area at greatest risk of a direct hit, and the 11 am EDT Wednesday wind probability forecast from NHC gave Cape Hatteras a 21% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds. Given the degree of model unanimity, the cone of uncertainty is likely thinner than presented. The latest 0Z Wednesday runs of our top two track models, the GFS and European (ECMWF), showed Arthur passing very close to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina between 2 am - 8 am EDT Friday, July 4.

Rip Current Danger
Rip currents are typically the biggest killer in shore-hugging tropical storms like Arthur, as the big waves pounding the coast create very strong currents flowing away from the shore that can drown even strong swimmers. High surf of 6 - 8 feet was affecting portions of the east coast of Florida from West Palm Beach to Jacksonville on Wednesday morning, and these waves were creating dangerous rip currents; five swimmers stranded by strong currents were rescued in Fort Pierce, Florida. The high surf will reach the South Carolina coast by Wednesday night, and begin affecting North Carolina on Thursday morning. The Wednesday morning run of NOAA's Wavewatch III model predicted that high surf of 6 - 8 feet capable of generating dangerous rip currents would affect the Mid-Atlantic coast from Virginia northwards beginning on Friday morning, and reach New England late Friday night.


Figure 3. Screenshot of the experimental NHC Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map for the North Carolina coast. Inundation of the land to a depth of 3 - 6 feet (yellow colors) has a 10% chance of occurring near Wilmington and Beaufort. The image was generated using using NOAA's Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge 2.0) model. P-Surge 2.0 uses multiple runs of the NWS Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model to create an ensemble of possible inundations, by varying the hurricane's landfall location, intensity, size, forward speed, and angle of approach to the coast. The image shows where the storm surge has a 10% chance of inundating the coast at 3, 6, and 9 feet above ground level. The model does not take into account wave action, freshwater flooding from rainfall, and breaching or overtopping of levees.

New NHC Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps Being Generated
Arthur is the first storm for which a fantastic new experimental National Hurricane Center product is being issued, the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map. This is an interactive zoomable map that shows where the storm surge has a 10% chance of inundating the coast at 3, 6, and 9 feet above ground level. The map is available only on the NHC web site.


Figure 4. A small boy plays with a toy donated by Portlight on September 5, 2012. His home in Pearlington, Mississippi was demolished by Hurricane Isaac. Image credit: Portlight.org.

Portlight disaster relief charity ready to respond during the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, is asking for donations as the 2014 hurricane season gets underway. This year, Portlight has already deployed staff to help victims of the April 27 EF-2 tornado that devastated Quapaw and Baxter Springs, Oklahoma, and is still active in New Jersey in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. This hurricane season, they hope to deploy a disaster shelter trailer which will help them assist shelter operators in making their facilities fully accessible to people with all types of disabilities. This will include ramping, railings, cots, dinner- and drinkware, and assistive technologies for those with vision, hearing, cognitive and developmental delays. Check out the Portlight Blog , and consider a donation to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Taking a poll...

Which do you think is the prettiest storm in the past 2 years?

A. Arthur (2014)
B. Michael (2012)
C. Gordon (2012)
D. Sandy (2012)
E. Humberto (2013)
Quoting 499. pspredicts:

You all sound like NASCAR fans! TURN LEFT, TURN LEFT.... This cane is going right>>>>>>>>>>>& gt;>

not the dreaded road racer...
Quoting 499. pspredicts:
You all sound like NASCAR fans! TURN LEFT, TURN LEFT.... This cane is going right>>>>>>>>>>>& gt;>


Eventually it will...just a matter of when. The models are shifting a bit west...
Quoting 478. terstorm:


Bertha in 1996?
1996 was a really bad year for NC. The eastern third of the state was under water by late Summer!
Quoting 501. MLTracking:

Taking a poll...

Which do you think is the prettiest storm in the past 2 years?

A. Arthur (2014)
B. Michael (2012)
C. Gordon (2012)
D. Sandy (2012)
E. Humberto (2013)


B.

Might become A soon though.
Arthur doesn't have much strong convection..



But it's presentation is stunning!


Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
SSD has Arthur at 65 kts, T4.0

Link


That shows 987 mb pressure.
The pressure was 986 mb at 5am.

Any more recent pressure readings? I've been gone a couple hours.
508. VR46L
From Nexsat site ....





Miss Piggy is Here
Haven't been able to find the other plane yet
Quoting VR46L:
From Nexsat site ....





that thunderstorm complex in the gulf looks to be turning.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That good or bad for organization?

Generally, not good.
Quoting 507. Sfloridacat5:



That shows 987 mb pressure.
The pressure was 986 mb at 5am.

Any more recent pressure readings? I've been gone a couple hours.


That data is SSD estimates based on Dvorak technique. Multiple planes are currently in the system.
Quoting 463. WxGeekVA:



Arthur, King of the Britons.


Arthur does rain dances in the Amazon rain forest!

AMAZING STORM
Quoting 506. JrWeathermanFL:

Arthur doesn't have much strong convection..



But it's presentation is stunning!





Always have to use the rainbow....

In all seriousness, the recon planes are going in during a great time as Arthur is strengthening.
Down to 990.7 mb - down 6 mb in the last half hour or so. Deepending quite quickly.

Quoting 501. MLTracking:

Taking a poll...

Which do you think is the prettiest storm in the past 2 years?

A. Arthur (2014)
B. Michael (2012)
C. Gordon (2012)
D. Sandy (2012)
E. Humberto (2013)


Not my pick, but some might prefer Kirk

I'd say Gordon

Interesting that Arthur's strongest band setup across Southern Florida.
I picked my .31" just a while ago in my station here in the Fort Myers area.

Quoting 475. StormTrackerScott:

Makes you wonder whats next if we are starting the season with a strong hurricane in about 24 to 36hrs. It would be something to have a season that has been downcasted by many forecasters, the blog, and myself included to end up with a year with many landfalls on the US.



The average number of storms in a June/July period is 1.7. In a El Nino period it is .8. In either case one storm would not indicate an active season.
Ummmmm

Time: 19:11:00Z
Coordinates: 29.5N 79.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 642.0 mb (~ 18.96 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,753 meters (~ 12,313 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 990.7 mb (~ 29.26 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 184° at 4 knots (From the S at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 9.0°C (~ 48.2°F)
Dew Pt: 4.4°C (~ 39.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 22 knots* (~ 25.3 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)
Quoting Articuno:


B.

Might become A soon though.


Ditto for both.
Quoting taco2me61:


Just a upper level Low in the BOC.... Not much to that one... Just my opinion....

Taco :o)

I'm overcast with high clouds from the blowoff from the upper level low in Gulf. It doesn't have much of a future, but I'm thankful for the high clouds. The temperature is still 96 and dewpoint 72, so the low isn't doing us any favors in terms of drying out this soggy air.
Quoting 516. Envoirment:

Down to 990.7 mb - down 5 mb in the last half hour or so?




Extrapolated from 12,000 ft
Funny to see some of the "senior" bloggers making a mockery of a tropical cyclone.
Organizing quite well despite the dry air...Appears to have closed off an eye.


527. VR46L
Quoting 510. HurricaneAndre:

that thunderstorm complex in the gulf looks to be turning.


I doubt it will spin into anything of concern...

i've never seen a storm drop 6 mb in less than an hour O.o
Quoting MocDasters:



The average number of storms in a June/July period is 1.7. In a El Nino period it is .8. In either case one storm would not indicate an active season.

Correct. I don't know why anyone thinks we can't have a strong storm in any season, regardless of the water temperature in the Pacific. I've also seen, over and over again, trying to guesscast the rest of the season based on one storm. Arthur gives us exactly zero information about September/October.
Not looking bad Arthur. Should survive as long as it can keep that convection going on all quadrants.
From a NHC advisory......

"LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA"

Can we PLEASE get PRESSLORD to straighten out the NHC!!!

LITTLE RIVER INLET is in SOUTH CAROLINA!
Quoting RyanSperrey:
i've never seen a storm drop 6 mb in less than an hour O.o

That's probably because it hasn't. One reading does not make a trend...
533. 900MB
Quoting 503. kilgores97:



Eventually it will...just a matter of when. The models are shifting a bit west...

Makes me a little more concerned about the East End of Long Island.
Quoting 520. VAbeachhurricanes:

Ummmmm

Time: 19:11:00Z
Coordinates: 29.5N 79.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 642.0 mb (~ 18.96 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,753 meters (~ 12,313 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 990.7 mb (~ 29.26 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 184° at 4 knots (From the S at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 9.0°C (~ 48.2°F)
Dew Pt: 4.4°C (~ 39.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 22 knots* (~ 25.3 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)


Well, that escalated quickly...
Quoting VR46L:


I doubt it will spin into anything of concern...

it could.
Quoting thelmores:
From a NHC advisory......

"LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA"

Can we PLEASE get PRESSLORD to straighten out the NHC!!!

LITTLE RIVER INLET is in SOUTH CAROLINA!

LOL. There are so many inlets it's just tough to keep them all in the right state. :-)
What happened to MississippiWx? Did he leave after that blog post last year? I haven't seen him since. Just wondering. I liked his analyses.
Quoting 524. nrtiwlnvragn:

Funny to see some of the "senior" bloggers making a mockery of a tropical cyclone.


It is because its not in the gulf, if it was it would be a def no joke zone.
Quoting 504. Chapelhill:
1996 was a really bad year for NC. The eastern third of the state was under water by late Summer!


yep...I lost 2 jobs in one summer because of those 2 storms.
Quoting 524. nrtiwlnvragn:

Funny to see some of the "senior" bloggers making a mockery of a tropical cyclone.


Arthur is definitely not something to mock. It has plenty of time to get his act together, and if he doesn't feel the trough as much, or as soon as the models depict, this storm will be very dangerous for many people.
Quoting 528. RyanSperrey:

i've never seen a storm drop 6 mb in less than an hour O.o



Hard to say that it's a true extrapolation as it was from 11000 feet
542. VR46L
Quoting 501. MLTracking:

Taking a poll...

Which do you think is the prettiest storm in the past 2 years?

A. Arthur (2014)
B. Michael (2012)
C. Gordon (2012)
D. Sandy (2012)
E. Humberto (2013)


Michael

Quoting 487. VAbeachhurricanes:



That good or bad for organization?


Good. Sinking air leaves the eye of the storm cloud free creating a warmer center.
Quoting 900MB:

Makes me a little more concerned about the East End of Long Island.

So far, the models are not shifting Arthur west. Keep an eye on the actual track and the changes over time. If you don't see a reasonably consistent trend to the NE over the 36 hours, start to worry.
Quoting 530. WxLogic:

Not looking bad Arthur. Should survive as long as it can keep that convection going on all quadrants.


Yeah I can definitely see Arthur keeping its convection now that the center has closed off an eye like feature and convection has closed off the dry air intrusions. I'm scared for NC east coast (Cape Hatteras, NC) region if the 12z EURO is indeed right on intensity and track. Also for someone who asked if a 4C temp difference between the inside of the eye and outside of the eye is good, that is correct. Once temperatures reach the + side of the temperature scale difference between inside eye and outside eye, it means the storm is intensifying. The better differential the better the organization.
Quoting 201. hulakai:

florida surf cams can be viewed here http://video-monitoring.com/beachcams/webcams.htm and here

http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/florida_2086/ map/ not much happening because all the energy is on the south and east side of the storm


Best Surf from Arthur will be south side of OBX , Frisco Pier area etc. the day after the storm passes. Then Long island and NJ the day after as well.
Quoting 537. GatorWX:

What happened to MississippiWx? Did he leave after that blog post last year? I haven't seen him since. Just wondering. I liked his analyses.


He's around, usually I see him on twitter. @DrewSmith_ if you want to follow him
Down to 989.6 mb, but extrapolated from 12,000 feet as some others have pointed out, thanks!

Quoting 520. VAbeachhurricanes:

Ummmmm

Time: 19:11:00Z
Coordinates: 29.5N 79.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 642.0 mb (~ 18.96 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,753 meters (~ 12,313 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 990.7 mb (~ 29.26 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 184° at 4 knots (From the S at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 9.0°C (~ 48.2°F)
Dew Pt: 4.4°C (~ 39.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 22 knots* (~ 25.3 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr* (~ 0 in/hr*)


They're at 12,000 ft.
551. 900MB
I'll go out on a limb here and say Artie is easily a Cat 2 heading into NC. Too much warm water, too little shear.
Quoting 501. MLTracking:

Taking a poll...

Which do you think is the prettiest storm in the past 2 years?

A. Arthur (2014)
B. Michael (2012)
C. Gordon (2012)
D. Sandy (2012)
E. Humberto (2013)


I would maybe add Kirk to the list as well. In my opinion, Michael was the nicest.
Pretty impressed with Arthur's satellite presentation versus earlier this morning. Also looks like it's stopped shooting out outflow boundaries to the north.
554. silas
Quoting hydrus:
Organizing quite well despite the dry air...Appears to have closed off an eye.


True, but notice the dry slot that appears to be wrapping its way in. Dry is still a serious problem for Arthur. Let's hope it stays that way!
NWS forecast for Cape Hatteras NC out 20 nm.

Thu Tropical storm conditions possible. S winds 10 to 15 kt... Increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 6 ft... Building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 9 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.

Thu Night Tropical storm conditions expected with hurricane conditions possible. SE winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 55 kt... Becoming NE 50 to 70 kt with gusts up to 90 kt after midnight. Seas around 14 ft...building to 25 ft after midnight. Dominant period 8 seconds. Showers and tstms likely.

Fri Hurricane conditions possible. NW winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt...diminishing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 23 ft... Subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Interesting that Arthur's strongest band setup across Southern Florida.
I picked my .31" just a while ago in my station here in the Fort Myers area.


The blog moves so fast I probably missed your answer. How much rain have you gotten since the low showed up?
Dry air in the NW and E is starting to filter in ... Arthur is about to lose his momentum.


Quoting 531. thelmores:

From a NHC advisory......

"LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA"

Can we PLEASE get PRESSLORD to straighten out the NHC!!!

LITTLE RIVER INLET is in SOUTH CAROLINA!


I think he may be too busy taking in his lawn furniture..LOL
I think Drak said it best with regards to eye temperature. Anyways I think I saw Hurricane Wilma and her intensification to the history books, that was an unbelievable morning to witness such amazing history and that was 9 years ago in October.
Quoting 553. CybrTeddy:

Pretty impressed with Arthur's satellite presentation versus earlier this morning.



Yep, that's a hurricane, right there.
Quoting 525. CybrTeddy:



For a tropical storm, this thing looks pretty good
562. 900MB
Quoting 545. sar2401:


So far, the models are not shifting Arthur west. Keep an eye on the actual track and the changes over time. If you don't see a reasonably consistent trend to the NE over the 36 hours, start to worry.

Yep, it is early and the trend west is recent. Also, interaction w trough a wild card. But, this morning models had Art about 125 miles East of Montauk, now looks like Montauk may be in next cone.
Quoting 553. CybrTeddy:

Pretty impressed with Arthur's satellite presentation versus earlier this morning.



It's weird how some out flow boundries flew off and Arthur became MUCH better organized. lol

He just spat out the dry air and now he's runnin a race.
Over the years, I have learned that, while a good tool to use, always look at what the storm is doing in real-time. If the models have it turning to the NE and he is still going N, then they goofed a bit. In this area, a difference of even 60 miles is HUGE, when you are talking about effects and where they will be felt.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


That shows 987 mb pressure.
The pressure was 986 mb at 5am.

Any more recent pressure readings? I've been gone a couple hours.


Corrected 996 mb this morning at 5am.
TWC just mentioned the aircrafts 990 mb reading.


WV imagery at this hour. In my opinion, it looks as though dry air is beginning to break through Arthur's defense system. The next 4-6 hours will be interesting to watch, with dry air, NHC Advisories, and the Hurricane Hunters.
Quoting weatherh98:


Always have to use the rainbow....

In all seriousness, the recon planes are going in during a great time as Arthur is strengthening.

I just wish that blob to the left had any actual rain in it. Rainbow always makes things seem stronger or more impressive than they are. It's nothing but high clouds in reality. We're dying for some rain, or at least slight cooler air over in SE Alabama.
Quoting 553. CybrTeddy:

Pretty impressed with Arthur's satellite presentation versus earlier this morning. Also looks like it's stopped shooting out outflow boundaries to the north.



Didn't post about that, but I was thinking the same regarding outflow boundaries.
At first we didn't know which circulation would be dominant...

Well..we found one!

Quoting 562. 900MB:


Yep, it is early and the trend west is recent. Also, interaction w trough a wild card. But, this morning models had Art about 125 miles East of Montauk, now looks like Montauk may be in next cone.


It's a very fine line, 900. Troughs in July are tricky.
I hope you guys dont get tired of me posting JB tweets but he is providing some useful information regarding this storm..


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

ECWMF wmo essential, not as good as HIRES but you get the point.. 48 hours

Quoting 560. yonzabam:



Yep, that's a hurricane, right there.


Agreed. Now we're just waiting on the NHC to confirm it.
The guy on TWC just mentioned the 991mb pressure found by the NOAA plane, though he did say it was estimated.
58-60kt surface winds found

191430 2935N 07849W 6419 03762 9928 +075 //// 164043 048 059 010 01
191500 2936N 07847W 6420 03761 9932 +077 //// 163052 054 060 016 01
191530 2937N 07844W 6436 03757 9952 +074 //// 166046 050 058 014 01

Link
Quoting 537. GatorWX:

What happened to MississippiWx? Did he leave after that blog post last year? I haven't seen him since. Just wondering. I liked his analyses.


I've been lookin around for MoonlightCowboy.
SST North/South Carolina coast



South Carolina coast

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Funny to see some of the "senior" bloggers making a mockery of a tropical cyclone.
Some seem to be passing the time. Nothing dramatic happening at the moment. Don't think anyone here is wishing for Arthur to do major harm to any interest.

Further, all those on the east coast, and in watch areas, please stay aware and be prepared.
Ryan N. Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1m
Likely that #Arthur will be hurricane at next advisory by NHC especially with legit eye formation. Rapid intens?
Ryan Maue: "Likely that #Arthur will be hurricane at next advisory by NHC especially with legit eye formation. Rapid intens?"

added: looks like I was beat to his tweet lol
I'm waiting on another troll like a first grader waiting on a fire drill alarm.
Although some dry air is entering the circulation, the nice new feeder band that's developing should help to counter-act any major weakening.


Quoting silas:
True, but notice the dry slot that appears to be wrapping its way in. Dry is still a serious problem for Arthur. Let's hope it stays that way!


Would be a bigger problem if Arthur was organized the way it was last night as just a blob with deep convection. Arthur has developed the classic look of a storm insulating itself from dry air, with outflow slowly becoming better established in all quadrants. Despite this, occasional lapses in organization are still to be expected but will become less drastic (like last night) as it begins to curve out. Like you mentioned, this is probably why Arthur won't get beyond 90mph as it approaches North Carolina, and why the ECMWF is probably overdoing it with a sub 970mb cyclone.
Quoting Envoirment:
58-60kt surface winds found

191430 2935N 07849W 6419 03762 9928 +075 //// 164043 048 059 010 01
191500 2936N 07847W 6420 03761 9932 +077 //// 163052 054 060 016 01
191530 2937N 07844W 6436 03757 9952 +074 //// 166046 050 058 014 01

Link

The flight-level winds don't match up, possibly contaminated.
Quoting 554. silas:

True, but notice the dry slot that appears to be wrapping its way in. Dry is still a serious problem for Arthur. Let's hope it stays that way!

Very true. That warm water may still keep it on a slow strengthening trend.
Arthur is waving goodbye to the Sandy Beaches of Florida and the Bahamas, and heading to North Carolina. Movement looks N with a few NNW Wobble.
Arthur is looking good today. The impressive band over southern Florida is expanding quickly to meet with the rest of the storm. Eye feature seems to have closed off, just needs heavier convection around some quadrants. Overall best looking storm I'v seen in a long while on satellite. Can't wait to continue watching it develop and who knows, maybe Arthur has a few surprises in store for us.

Looks great; not so much on IR but it's definitely improving. Could be a hurricane at 5pm depending on what Recon finds in the northeastern/southwestern semicircles.

Not to divert the attention away from our star, but note the probabilities of development off of Africa on that TW.



Quoting 575. redwagon:



I've been lookin around for MoonlightCowboy.


And AtHomeInTexas
Quoting 900MB:

Yep, it is early and the trend west is recent. Also, interaction w trough a wild card. But, this morning models had Art about 125 miles East of Montauk, now looks like Montauk may be in next cone.

Could be, since the interaction with the trough and how well it withstands dry air are two things the models are not going to pick up well in the short term. They could all be right and have Arthur end up in Nova Scotia in the longer term but miss smaller shifts in the near term. Frankly, in the days before satellites, it was easier to concentrate on the actual track and correct it with ship and aircraft reports. Now we have about 500 different satellite views, and everyone has a tendency to get excited about what happened in the last 15 minutes.
Nice to be an intern at HRD this summer

NOAA43: Is tasked by EMC for a TDR mission into TS Arthur. Take off will be at 1800 UTC (2PM Eastern) from MacDill and will recover back at MacDill. Three HRD scientists and two interns will be on this flight.


Link
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


And AtHomeInTexas

She;s been here pretty regularly, but I haven't seen much of Moonlight.
594. 900MB
Quoting 570. nash36:



It's a very fine line, 900. Troughs in July are tricky.

Yep. I'm stumped on that. Likely OBX gets wacked, from there???
Rapid explosion of deep convection commencing now in Arthur's northeastern quadrant.
Quoting 573. MAweatherboy1:

The guy on TWC just mentioned the 991mb pressure found by the NOAA plane, though he did say it was estimated.


Whoa! There we go. The official tally right now is 997 MB, at least according to the WU graphic.
Quoting 583. WeatherNerdPR:


The flight-level winds don't match up, possibly contaminated.


Edit: Nevermind, the data is still there. Unless I'm seeing things, I could have sworn the data set changed when I refreshed lol. I think I need to stop refreshing the page so much.
Quoting 564. nash36:

Over the years, I have learned that, while a good tool to use, always look at what the storm is doing in real-time. If the models have it turning to the NE and he is still going N, then they goofed a bit. In this area, a difference of even 60 miles is HUGE, when you are talking about effects and where they will be felt.


Definitely a smart statement here. 60 miles west of the current projected track is landfall at Wilmington, NC instead of traversing the Outer Banks.

Of course there's still plenty of wobble left in our top - aka Tropical Storm Arthur
Quoting 576. Grothar:

SST North/South Carolina coast



South Carolina coast




And what do these cryptic maps mean, Gro? I'm really clueless.
Arthur is now heading into the dry air. I don't expect great things.
Quoting 321. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Arthur sucking in some juicy Everglades air/moisture.
Can't wait until it comes north and pulls some moisture into my locale.
Nice burst of convection to the east of the eye.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Nice to be an intern at HRD this summer

NOAA43: Is tasked by EMC for a TDR mission into TS Arthur. Take off will be at 1800 UTC (2PM Eastern) from MacDill and will recover back at MacDill. Three HRD scientists and two interns will be on this flight.


Link

Do you have any information about the future plans for the Orion aircraft? They are starting to get pretty long in the tooth now, even though the airframe hours are probably pretty low.
Quoting ncstorm:
I hope you guys dont get tired of me posting JB tweets but he is providing some useful information regarding this storm..


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

ECWMF wmo essential, not as good as HIRES but you get the point.. 48 hours



Is it possible for someone to lose their meteorology degree due to bad forecasting? I have someone in mind.
Quoting 566. WIBadgerWeather:


WV imagery at this hour. In my opinion, it looks as though dry air is beginning to break through Arthur's defense system. The next 4-6 hours will be interesting to watch, with dry air, NHC Advisories, and the Hurricane Hunters.


Maybe, but the moisture in the GOM is streaming NNE and may help get rid of the dry air, plus Arthur may aid in the process by moistening the environment.
AF301 is bending back towards the SW to sample the northeastern and southwestern eyewall with this pass. If this is a hurricane, we are about to find out.

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


And AtHomeInTexas

AtHome has been around, not for Arthur but before that.
608. AVL
Looks like that Gulf system might be getting ready to give ole Artie a big sloppy "moisture" kiss
609. HCW

Quoting 599. barbamz:



And what do these cryptic maps mean, Gro? I'm really clueless.
They are the water temps off the coast of SC
I did indicate earlier that the eye wall was closed off and that it was a minimal hurricane at the time. it now appears that RECON is getting that information
Right on track

Quoting WIBadgerWeather:


Whoa! There we go. The official tally right now is 997 MB, at least according to the WU graphic.

Nothing like real time updates for pressure readings that have no relationship to the pressure in the storm.
Starting to head back towards the circulation through the northeastern semicircle. 51kt flight-level winds being reported well away from the center.

193830 3029N 07804W 8432 01584 0124 +154 +139 149048 051 033 003 00


Anywhere from 65mph 996mb to 70mph 991mb seems to be what 5:00 will say unless recon finds hurricane force winds in an hour.

Or have they already and I just missed it??

This thing sure looks better than 60.
Arthur is likely a hurricane right now as convection has begun to explode in his northeastern quadrant or eastern semicircle.
Quoting 602. WeatherNerdPR:

Nice burst of convection to the east of the eye.



Just in time for recon
Well Arthur is taking shape rather well this afternoon, its looking more like a hurricane. So the dry air to its north is letting up it seems, the outflow has improved a lot and the center of circulation is becoming more apparent. The next 48 hours will say a lot I would not be surprised if it gets to cat 2 storm at its peak.
If they don't have Arthur as a hurricane at 5:00 I will be surprised. It should be near the Carolina coasts by tomorrow. Not much time to prepare.

Showing up on the northern radar now.
Good afternoon everyone. And Arthur.
Dropsonde from Miss Piggy in the center

995mb (Surface) 240° (from the WSW) 11 knots (13 mph)
Quoting 618. Grothar:

If they don't have Arthur as a hurricane at 5:00 I will be surprised. It should be near the Carolina coasts by tomorrow. Not much time to prepare.




We should at least start to see Hurricane Warnings, but at least public safety wise this probably should be bumped to a Hurricane.
The radar image looks like Arthur is flat on the NW side. Bad news for Mr. A.
I JUST RELEASED A SPECIAL UPADTE...I THINK ARTHUR IS ON HIS WAY TO CATEGORY 3. However I think some shear will weaken him down to cat 2 by the time he reaches the NC Outer Banks on Friday.

I believe Arthur is about to rapidly intensify. It is a very compact and well-organized tropical cyclone under favorable conditions...and compact systems have a history of rapid development.
That is Arthur on the North Carolina coast tomorrow. That is the trough which should be moving it NE. If Arthur does intensify more than expected, it could change a few scenarios. All the warnings would have to be changed to Hurricane warnings.

Quoting Drakoen:
Ryan Maue: "Likely that #Arthur will be hurricane at next advisory by NHC especially with legit eye formation. Rapid intens?"

added: looks like I was beat to his tweet lol

Do you seriously see any signs of rapid intensification? I sure don't in terms of what's happening now.
The dance partners

Quoting 623. bappit:

The radar image looks like Arthur is flat on the NW side. Bad news for Mr. A.


I'm thinking this should be fixed overnight. The convection is on a reload right now as convection has started to explode once again in hot towers over the northeastern quadrant. This should encompass the entire circulation.
Quoting 490. HCW:


Looks for a slight shift to the left at 5pm based on all this new model data



i'm hoping for a shift to the right, we don't need a Cat 1,2 or 3 making landfall west of the outer banks, that would put anywhere from 3-12 feet of surge in the outer banks...Im sure local residents would agree.
LOL Compare comments 623 and 624.
HRRR is still stubbornly west of the other models. I'm not sure how well it deals with developed tropical systems, though.

Quoting Grothar:
If they don't have Arthur as a hurricane at 5:00 I will be surprised. It should be near the Carolina coasts by tomorrow. Not much time to prepare.



I do not believe Arthur has 74 mph sustained winds around its center. Also pressure is still high for a hurricane.
But that hasn't stopped the NHC before.
Some 60kt flight-level winds/50kt SFMR winds being reported as they near the circulation.

194730 3010N 07826W 8428 01558 0104 +138 +135 142061 062 047 013 00
194800 3009N 07827W 8426 01558 0101 +141 +141 143056 062 052 014 00
Another view of Arthur, this time a WV Loop.

57kts is the highest in this batch so far. About to reach the eyewall.
Quoting 612. sar2401:


Nothing like real time updates for pressure readings that have no relationship to the pressure in the storm.


Huh? Could you clarify?
Quoting 626. sar2401:


Do you seriously see any signs of rapid intensification? I sure don't in terms of what's happening now.

Now that he's sealed off an eyewall and is a compact tropical cyclone...he certainly has the structure and environment to pull of Rapid intensification. If it hasn't started rapid intensification now...he certainly could tonight...
638. xcool
65 at 5pm
Quoting sar2401:

Do you seriously see any signs of rapid intensification? I sure don't in terms of what's happening now.


Today there has been very slow intensification. Some might want to argue that, but it's true.
In the past 12 hours Arthur has only slightly intensified.
But Arthur still has tonight and all day tomorrow to intensify before landfall.
990mb is a borderline hurricane strength in terms of millibars and pressure. I think its possible to have a 990mb 75mph hurricane.
Quoting 635. WeatherNerdPR:

57kts is the highest in this batch so far. About to reach the eyewall.


70kts won't be out of reach once in the eyewall
Quoting 609. HCW:


They are the water temps off the coast of SC



Thank you (though I'm still disoriented by all those grey lines. Where is the real coastline? Where the green ends? And why is there so much black??? Ahh, mysteries ... :-)
Quoting 626. sar2401:


Do you seriously see any signs of rapid intensification? I sure don't in terms of what's happening now.


I just see ordinary intensification at the moment.
I wouldn't say Arthur is a hurricane at this point in time. He's certainly strengthened a bit, but not by 15 mph. At most I would say 70. His northwestern quadrant is not looking very healthy at all right now due to the dry air over FL,GA, and at this point a little bit of SC as well.

I'm curious to see what that blob of moisture in the GOM does with this. Seems to be inching NE.
Not a hurricane yet I don't think, still no consistent 60-kt flight level winds
TWC said estimated pressure found in aircraft was 990 mb...then later confused Wilmington with Cape Lookout, waiting for the 5EDT update
Quoting 630. bappit:

LOL Compare comments 623 and 624.



Hmmmmm something doesn't seem right lol


Tropical Intensity Index. Conditions will become less favorable for Arthur in the coming days, though it should most definitely have enough to become a hurricane.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That good or bad for organization?
Good. What Drak said and...

I believe this temperature difference somehow contributes to lowering sea level pressure. Spent some time looking for a reference but cannot find an explanation for how. (Please correct me if I am wrong, Drak!)

Good to keep an eye on the difference in degrees for temperatures inside and outside the eye when you look at the Vortex Data Message. When the hurricane eye structure warms up too close to the interior eye temp, the cyclone is losing it's cool. So to speak. Here, we have the opposite. Inside the eye being warmer relative to the thunderstorms in the eyewall means a stronger storm structure.
Quoting 642. barbamz:



Thank you (though I'm still disoriented by all those grey lines. Where is the real coastline? Where the green ends? And why is there so much black??? Ahh, mysteries ... :-)


The SST's on those charts are recorded as a single snapshot- the black indicates cloud cover that obscured the ocean surface. And yes, where the green ends is the coastline. :)
Quoting 640. TheDawnAwakening:

990mb is a borderline hurricane strength in terms of millibars and pressure. I think its possible to have a 990mb 75mph hurricane.

You are right. Also Arthur appears really compact...so the pressure gradient and resultant winds are higher for the same value of central pressure. For example Charley only had to go down to 940s in mb to become a cat 4.
Quoting barbamz:


Thank you (though I'm still disoriented by all those grey lines. Where is the real coastline? Where the green ends? And why is there so much black??? Ahh, mysteries ... :-)

The black is where they have no data. The real coastline is where all those isotherms end at the green line. It is pretty disorienting, even if you're familiar with the coast. Suffice to say the sea surface temperatures are between 82 and 84, and that's true up to about the mid-Virginia coast.
Looks like the AF flight is going through the strongest part of the "eyewall", will be curious what this yields.
Quoting 613. MiamiHurricanes09:

Starting to head back towards the circulation through the northeastern semicircle. 51kt flight-level winds being reported well away from the center.

193830 3029N 07804W 8432 01584 0124 +154 +139 149048 051 033 003 00
Quoting 599. barbamz:



And what do these cryptic maps mean, Gro? I'm really clueless.


Sea surface temperatures in Fahrenheit. The black indicates cloud cover, so they do not always get the correct information. The waters are very warm.
Quoting 649. Barefootontherocks:

Good. What Drak said and...

I believe this temperature difference somehow contributes to lowering sea level pressure. Spent some time looking for a reference but cannot find an explanation for how. (Please correct me if I am wrong, Drak!)

Good to keep an eye on the difference in degrees for temperatures inside and outside the eye when you look at the Vortex Data Message. When the hurricane eye structure warms up too close to the interior eye temp, the cyclone is losing it's cool. So to speak. Here, we have the opposite. Inside the eye being warmer relative to the thunderstorms in the eyewall means a stronger storm structure.


"What is air pressure" should answer your question.


This storm already ranks up in looks with any storm after 2011 maybe other than Gordon, Michael, or Sandy.
Quoting 647. weatherh98:



Hmmmmm something doesn't seem right lol
A good rule of thumb is to take all the comments posted here and take the average of them. That usually gets you a pretty decent forecast.
Quoting 653. sar2401:


The black is where they have no data. The real coastline is where all those isotherms end at the green line. It is pretty disorienting, even if you're familiar with the coast. Suffice to say the sea surface temperatures are between 82 and 84, and that's true up to about the mid-Virginia coast.


Thanks for you patience and the explanation, Sar :-)

I tried google image search to find the source (and find out more), and this is what I got, lol (not the coastline of the - cough - Carolinas, I guess):

check this out look at the MJO for the rest of july
High rain rate; winds seem to be around 60kts.

195600 2952N 07846W 8449 01465 0015 +152 +152 154064 067 055 007 00
195630 2951N 07847W 8420 01491 0013 +154 +154 149066 068 053 023 00
195700 2950N 07849W 8437 01462 0005 +151 +151 146069 071 059 034 00
195730 2949N 07850W 8422 01468 9992 +156 +156 147070 071 062 040 00
195800 2948N 07851W 8407 01479 9975 +166 +166 160059 070 069 027 00
Good afternoon. I've posted a new video discussion on Arthur for those who like to watch them:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, July 2nd, 2014
Ahhhhh I believe I said 70 kts a few minutes ago
Quoting sar2401:

The black is where they have no data. The real coastline is where all those isotherms end at the green line. It is pretty disorienting, even if you're familiar with the coast. Suffice to say the sea surface temperatures are between 82 and 84, and that's true up to about the mid-Virginia coast.


Virginia Beach water temperature is 77 degrees, but the Gulf Stream offshore will have warmer water most likely around 80 degrees.
Possible upgrade to a Category 1 hurricane at 5pm.

SFMR
69 knots
(~ 79.3 mph)

Flight level
71 knots
(~ 81.6 mph)
Gulf Stream waters are warm :)
195700 2950N 07849W 8437 01462 0005 151 151 146069 071 059 034 00
195730 2949N 07850W 8422 01468 9992 156 156 147070 071 062 040 00
195800 2948N 07851W 8407 01479 9975 166 166 160059 070 069 027 00
195830 2947N 07852W 8455 01414 9960 173 173 175038 047 067 019 03

69 and 67 kt surface winds.
Air Force plane got some winds of around 70-75mph, but high rain rates so probably not usable.
Quoting 624. NCHurricane2009:

I JUST RELEASED A SPECIAL UPADTE...I THINK ARTHUR IS ON HIS WAY TO CATEGORY 3. However I think some shear will weaken him down to cat 2 by the time he reaches the NC Outer Banks on Friday.

I believe Arthur is about to rapidly intensify. It is a very compact and well-organized tropical cyclone under favorable conditions...and compact systems have a history of rapid development.


Well, he did just suck in an enormous amount of energy from that GOM MCS... like giving spinach to Popeye. He did wobble significantly East in the last hour, we just have to hope that's not part of yet another loop he's taken today.
62kts with 71kts flight level and 69kts with 70kts flight level.

195730 2949N 07850W 8422 01468 9992 +156 +156 147070 071 062 040 00
195800 2948N 07851W 8407 01479 9975 +166 +166 160059 070 069 027 00

It's either a hurricane or very close.
Looks lik Arthur is a 'Cane, even with contamination, the readings seem to confirm minimal status.
Quoting Envoirment:
195700 2950N 07849W 8437 01462 0005 +151 +151 146069 071 059 034 00
195730 2949N 07850W 8422 01468 9992 +156 +156 147070 071 062 040 00
195800 2948N 07851W 8407 01479 9975 +166 +166 160059 070 069 027 00
195830 2947N 07852W 8455 01414 9960 +173 +173 175038 047 067 019 03

69 and 67 kt surface winds. Looks like Hurricane Arthur is here.


Gusts or sustained?
Quoting 664. Sfloridacat5:



Virginia Beach water temperature is 77 degrees, but the Gulf Stream offshore will have warmer water most likely around 80 degrees.


sar2401 is the resident downcaster so pay no attention to him. Just imagine him in a presslord dress then all is good.
Quoting 652. NCHurricane2009:


You are right. Also Arthur appears really compact...so the pressure gradient and resultant winds are higher for the same value of central pressure. For example Charley only had to go down to 940s in mb to become a cat 4.


Good point, Katrina had a lower pressure than Andrew at landfall but Andrew beat her msw by 30-40 mph
Quoting 553. CybrTeddy:

Pretty impressed with Arthur's satellite presentation versus earlier this morning. Also looks like it's stopped shooting out outflow boundaries to the north.


Like night and day.....pretty amazing!
If Arthur makes CAT1 status, that's a head of the NHC predictions.
Quoting 650. SavannahStorm:



The SST's on those charts are recorded as a single snapshot- the black indicates cloud cover that obscured the ocean surface. And yes, where the green ends is the coastline. :)


Ahh, clouds! That's comprehensible. Thanks.
Looks like Hurricane Arthur is here with 75 mph winds. HH'ers are finding winds of 80 but will likely classify this with 75 mph.
I think the trolls are at a loss for words

From AF301, Arthur is certainly trying:

Time: 19:57:30Z
Coordinates: 29.8167N 78.8333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.2 mb (~ 24.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,468 meters (~ 4,816 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 999.2 mb (~ 29.51 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 147° at 70 knots (From the SSE at ~ 80.5 mph)
Air Temp: 15.6°C (~ 60.1°F)
Dew Pt: 15.6°C (~ 60.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 71 knots (~ 81.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 40 mm/hr (~ 1.57 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting 629. HurricaneHunterJoe:



i'm hoping for a shift to the right, we don't need a Cat 1,2 or 3 making landfall west of the outer banks, that would put anywhere from 3-12 feet of surge in the outer banks...Im sure local residents would agree.

Especially not during the busiest week of the year,with no time to evacuate.

Quoting 679. StormTrackerScott:

Looks like Hurricane Arthur is here with 75 mph winds. HH'ers are finding winds of 80 but will likely classify this with 75 mph.


Finding 80mph at 5k feet, probably not a hurricane quite yet.
Convection in the northeastern quadrant is beginning to make its way into the northern semicircle and encompass the eye or center of circulation. Once this occurs rapid intensification will be underway. Dry air is a non issue currently.
Funny senior members are downcasting Arthur when the Euro has a 100mph plus hurricane bearing down on the Outerbanks in 36hrs.
The high rain rates are likely due to the ongoing burst in the NE side of the eyewall, which is where recon is currently passing.
Quoting 653. sar2401:


The black is where they have no data. The real coastline is where all those isotherms end at the green line. It is pretty disorienting, even if you're familiar with the coast. Suffice to say the sea surface temperatures are between 82 and 84, and that's true up to about the mid-Virginia coast.


The black is cloud cover.
Quoting 672. MrstormX:

Looks lik Arthur is a 'Cane, even with contamination, the readings seem to confirm minimal status.

i wouldn't be suprised if Arthur is a category 3 by this time tomorrow (sigh...however I won't be able to watch it happen live as I will be on a plane headed to Europe...)
This reminds me of cindy in 2005 that threatened us during the 4th of july activities
Who are these "senior" members? Am I missing something
Quoting 659. barbamz:

This is how Mother Nature says HOOK'EM HORNS!
Quoting 683. VAbeachhurricanes:



Finding 80mph at 5k feet, probably not a hurricane quite yet.


There were 67-69kt (77-79mph) surface wind extrapolations, but could be rain contaminated.
Estimated surface winds based off flight level 30-second averages would yield 61kts. Might not be a hurricane yet, but it's on the threshold. Fair chance further data might come in to yield a 65kt hurricane.
Quoting 685. StormTrackerScott:

Funny senior members are downcasting Arthur when the Euro has a 100mph plus hurricane bearing down on the Outerbanks in 36hrs.


Years of let downs, senior members got spoiled in 2005 and 2008. Lol.
Quoting SavannahStorm:
HRRR is still stubbornly west of the other models. I'm not sure how well it deals with developed tropical systems, though.


The HRRR is, as it says, experimental, and just went live with the newest update in March, so we don't have a lot of verification data. It's a very short term model, being the most accurate about 2-3 hours out, since one of its major goals is improving flight level weather forecasting for aircraft. At 15 hours, it's getting near the 50/50 level of accuracy for what it's shown so far.
Very interested in the next set of data from the AF plane as the pressure was dropping fast to 996mb at the last point.
697. FOREX
Quoting 685. StormTrackerScott:

Funny senior members are downcasting Arthur when the Euro has a 100mph plus hurricane bearing down on the Outerbanks in 36hrs.


I just posted the EURO info on my Facebook page and someone commented that CNN is saying a minimal hurricane off the coast. Go figure.
Quoting 665. CybrTeddy:

Possible upgrade to a Category 1 hurricane at 5pm.

SFMR
69 knots
(~ 79.3 mph)

Flight level
71 knots
(~ 81.6 mph)


faster strengthening storm..wouldnt that mean a more poleward path?
Quoting 585. FIUStormChaser:

Arthur is waving goodbye to the Sandy Beaches of Florida and the Bahamas, and heading to North Carolina. Movement looks N with a few NNW Wobble.


Waiting to see if that feeder band to the south-southwest of center really connects into Arthur, could give a jolt of added energy.
991.5mb.

Would appear that Arthur is undergoing rapid intensification.

200430 2940N 07912W 8436 01419 9915 +203 +157 346012 016 024 000 00
WELL ARTHUR COULD PULL AN ALEX AND LATER BERTHA COULD WELL PULL A BERTHA NOT THE 1996 VERSION HOPEFULLY THE 2008S ONE
Quoting Grothar:


The black is cloud cover.

And it yields no data due to the cloud cover.
Quoting 699. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Waiting to see if that feeder band to the south-southwest of center really connects into Arthur, could give a jolt of added energy.


It looks as though Arthur is actively trying to drag the band in. If anything tonight triggers RI (which I doubt, but...), it could be the attachment of that band.
Quoting 700. MiamiHurricanes09:

991.5mb.

Would appear that Arthur is undergoing rapid intensification.

200430 2940N 07912W 8436 01419 9915 +203 +157 346012 016 024 000 00


MHC, I trust your forecasting, what is your opinion about track and intensity?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Funny senior members are downcasting Arthur when the Euro has a 100mph plus hurricane bearing down on the Outerbanks in 36hrs.

As the graphic Dr Masters posted shows, the Euro is dead last in predicting intensity. It does well on track but is terrible on intensity.
Quoting 685. StormTrackerScott:

Funny senior members are downcasting Arthur when the Euro has a 100mph plus hurricane bearing down on the Outerbanks in 36hrs.

Who's downcasting? Maybe some of these "senior members" are taking in to account that dry air could keep Arthur from intensifying too quickly, but I wouldn't say anybody is downcasting it.
Quoting 320. AztecCe:


:)



Wah-wah.
MH09 posted it, but the pressure is now confirmed to be about 991mb. That's a very fast rate of strengthening. Winds may not have fully caught up yet (although from what we have a 75mph hurricane at 5PM is possible), but we'll know soon enough if those winds are going to jump even more. Arthur is not a huge storm, so it is subject to large changes in intensity in short order.




yee haw
I don't know if any of you ever look at the NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory page, but this video of Arthur's development is incredible!
--> http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/satimg/GULF-sectorsm.mp4 (can't link it for some reason)
Down to 991.5 mb. ~4.5 mb drop in around 1 hour 45 minutes. So a drop of ~2.6 mb per hour. No reason why it shouldn't continue intensifying at this rate and perhaps even quicker with conditions becoming more favourable for Arthur and Dmax still to come. It should be Dmin right now over the system.
As the graphic Dr Masters posted shows, the Euro is dead last in predicting intensity. It does well on track but is terrible on intensity.


would you stop with the facts already :-)
Quoting 704. MrstormX:



MHC, I trust your forecasting, what is your opinion about track and intensity?
No reason to trust my forecasting LOL, but a category 2 making landfall along the Outer Banks is what I'm going with at the present time.
Time: 20:04:30Z
Coordinates: 29.6667N 79.2W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.6 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,419 meters (~ 4,656 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 991.5 mb (~ 29.28 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 346° at 12 knots (From the NNW at ~ 13.8 mph)
Air Temp: 20.3°C (~ 68.5°F)
Dew Pt: 15.7°C (~ 60.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 16 knots (~ 18.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 24 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

pressure down 4.5 mb.
I wanted to re-share an incredible Hurricane Hunter photo I found this morning for the bloggers who weren't on this AM. This is one of Arthur's spiral bands.

Quoting 706. sar2401:


As the graphic Dr Masters posted shows, the Euro is dead last in predicting intensity. It does well on track but is terrible on intensity.

I could be wrong about this, but doesn't the Euro usually have a low bias on intensity, not a high one? Maybe that's just with weaker storms.
Time: 19:58:00Z
Coordinates: 29.8N 78.85W
Acft. Static Air Press: 840.7 mb (~ 24.83 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,479 meters (~ 4,852 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.5 mb (~ 29.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 160° at 59 knots (From the SSE at ~ 67.8 mph)
Air Temp: 16.6°C (~ 61.9°F)
Dew Pt: 16.6°C (~ 61.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 70 knots (~ 80.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 69 knots (~ 79.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 27 mm/hr (~ 1.06 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

I suspect Arthur will be upgraded to a hurricane on the next advisory.
I'm thinking 992 mb and 70-75 mph next advisory, forecast cone about the same. Should see Hurricane Warnings issued.
Quoting 611. WxLogic:

Right on track




Very impressive jump in organization since early this morning. I know.......Duh.......LOL
Second plane heading towards the center again and will investigate the North-West/South-East quadrants of the storm.

S.E. coast of Florida be on the lookout from the southern band intensifying and lifting north. It should work its way over to the coast. Take cover on Lake O.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


sar2401 is the resident downcaster so pay no attention to him. Just imagine him in a presslord dress then all is good.

How's that 5"-10" rain doing down there, Scott? If you prefer to call using actual data downcasting then so be it. I do try not to blow things up more than there seems to be evidence to support.
MiamiHurricanes09 saying this may be in RI mode is quite the comment, one of the most informed in my opinion. Would put this at between the 95-105mph range this time tomorrow if that's the case. Certainly if Arthur is already a sub 990mb minimum hurricane then the pressure drop has been pretty amazing. Convection wise still has some to be desired and one can only hope the dry air stops this from ratcheting up. If dry air doesn't play the role it did yesterday and Arthur does RI then major 115-125mph storm starting to look like more of a possibility for Friday. When conditions are as close as they are finding to hurricane strength storm, NHC usually borders on caution and labels hurricane. 75mph hurricane classification coming at five likely unless then find it even stronger, which isn't yet likely.
60 kt, slight increase to reach hurricane.... blah blah blah.......
Air Force center drop

992mb (Surface) 150° (from the SSE) 5 knots (6 mph)
I think we have a hurricane. AF Vortex message used 77mph as the maximum surface wind intensity. The NHC will likely go with 75mph.
The NHC has Arthur as a Tropical Storm at 8AM tomorrow morning.
So if Arthur is upgraded to a CAT1, he's way a head of schedule.
734. HCW
From Impact WX
Satellite and radar imagery continue to indicate that Tropical Storm

Arthur is becoming better organized. Aircraft reconnaissance data

indicate that the central pressure is falling. The latest data from the

aircraft indicate surface winds between 60 mph and 65 mph. Based on

all of the data, we have increased our estimate of the current wind

speed to 65 mph. Continued strengthening is expected. We are

forecasting Arthur to peak with winds near 100 mph as it passes the

Outer Banks of North Carolina. Thereafter, weakening is expected. By

the time Arthur reaches Nova Scotia in 72 hours, we expect it to be a

Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph. There have

been no significant changes to the track forecast through the first few

days. We expect the center of Arthur to pass very near the Outer Banks

of North Carolina early Friday morning. Arthur should pass well east

of Massachusetts Friday night and early Saturday morning. Landfall in

Nova Scotia could potentially occur very near the city of Halifax on

Saturday afternoon. Thereafter, Arthur will gradually weaken as it

continues northeastward through Atlantic Canada.


Quoting 720. stormpetrol:

Time: 19:58:00Z
Coordinates: 29.8N 78.85W
Acft. Static Air Press: 840.7 mb (~ 24.83 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,479 meters (~ 4,852 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.5 mb (~ 29.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 160° at 59 knots (From the SSE at ~ 67.8 mph)
Air Temp: 16.6°C (~ 61.9°F)
Dew Pt: 16.6°C (~ 61.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 70 knots (~ 80.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 69 knots (~ 79.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 27 mm/hr (~ 1.06 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

I suspect Arthur will be upgraded to a hurricane on the next advisory.

Rain contaminated.
Quoting 690. Drakoen:

Who are these "senior" members? Am I missing something


Basically guys that has been here since mid-2000s, I think...
Quoting Drakoen:
Who are these "senior" members? Am I missing something
Those whose ages exceed the ages of all hurricane hunter aircraft combined added to the age of the NHC. That would surely make them "senior".

Could simply be those who blog with or without their teeth in.
Quoting 662. Levi32:

Good afternoon. I've posted a new video discussion on Arthur for those who like to watch them:

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, July 2nd, 2014


I liked to watch it :-)) Thanks a lot.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 20:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014
Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 20:03:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°42'N 79°10'W (29.7N 79.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 118 miles (189 km) to the ENE (73°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,354m (4,442ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (70°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 71kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 81.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open, Open NW
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 300° to 120° (WNW to ESE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) at 0:68
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the ENE (75°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
/ 20 NM 19:57:00Z
CTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 150 / 5 KT
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Starting to see some strong convection on the north side. That's something we really haven't seen all day.
741. HCW
Darn it the number that I called for the NHC conf call last season has been disconnected
Arthur is a hurricane or just on the verge of becoming one.Amazing I never thought this will strengthen so fast.When it was an AOI the most i thought it will be was a peak of 50mph but now of how is strengthening it might well become a cat 2.
Is a stronger storm more likely to interact with the trough to the North, Could this turn the storm to the Northeast sooner? (and away from land?)
With that vortex message Arthur should be a hurricane.
HH Recon appears to believe the surface wind extrapolations are accurate, therefore we probably have a hurricane.


C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,354m (4,442ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (70°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 71kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 81.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open, Open NW
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 300° to 120° (WNW to ESE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Those whose ages exceed the ages of all hurricane hunter aircraft combined added to the age of the NHC. That would surely make them "senior".
a.k.a. grothar
Temperature difference has increase to 6 C.
748. silas

Quoting sar2401:

How's that 5"-10" rain doing down there, Scott? If you prefer to call using actual data downcasting then so be it. I do try not to blow things up more than there seems to be evidence to support.
For what it's worth, I appreciate that you see things how they are, not blowing things out of proportion and, dare I say it, wishcasting. Thank you.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Those whose ages exceed the ages of all hurricane hunter aircraft combined added to the age of the NHC. That would surely make them "senior".



We might be all of that y'all....but we've sat through so many RECON flights there's just no way to count them all!

Keep smiling and helping.

It would appear that Arthur is a hurricane as per the vortex message. Unless Avila's writing the advisory. ;)
Quoting 743. mcmorder:

Is a stronger storm more likely to interact with the trough to the North, Could this turn the storm to the Northeast sooner? (and away from land?)


I think it will make it want to pull more north that east.
Hope the NHC servers are good, figure they are about to get an F5 workout :)
Arthur is a small cyclone, like Charley, so it will likely need to make a direct landfall to make significant impact.
Quoting 754. Jedkins01:

Arthur is a small cyclone, like Charley, so it will likely need to make a direct landfall to make significant impact.


It should grow as it interacts with the trough.
Quoting 754. Jedkins01:

Arthur is a small cyclone, like Charley, so it will likely need to make a direct landfall to make significant impact.


Don't tell that to HIghway 12 on Hatteras Island.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I could be wrong about this, but doesn't the Euro usually have a low bias on intensity, not a high one? Maybe that's just with weaker storms.

It's all over the place with intensity, sometimes low and sometimes high. If we can say one thing with certainty about the Euro and intensity forecasts, it's that it tends to be overconfident. In other words, once it latches on to a 100 mph forecast or 975 mb central pressure, it tends to hold on to it, regardless of what new data shows. It also tends to remain overconfident regardless of forecast lead time, e.g., it's just as bad with intensity at 24 hours as it is with 96 hours. The more other reliable models change intensity compared to the Euro, the more likely it is that the Euro is wrong. I don't know why actual performance data is viewed as downcasting, but I'm very reluctant to ever use the Euro as a basis for an intensity forecast.
The eyewall is open to the N-NW, consistent with radar and IR imagery. They used the 67kt reading, so it seems we have our first hurricane of the season. Advisory should appear in the next 30 minutes or so. Expect a slight shift to the left with the cone.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Hope the NHC servers are good, figure they are about to get an F5 workout :)
Their page auto-refreshes on most browsers anyhow every so many minutes. Haven't looked at the code lately for the interval.
It is wrapping in that area of convection rather quick....Definitely a strengthening storm.
761. HCW

Quoting 753. VAbeachhurricanes:

Hope the NHC servers are good, figure they are about to get an F5 workout :)
There is software and apps for that stop living in the 90's
Quoting 750. MiamiHurricanes09:

It would appear that Arthur is a hurricane as per the vortex message. Unless Avila's writing the advisory. ;)


If it's Avila, it could get rather entertaining. I forget which storm it was that sent him into "unhinged" territory, but I was dining out on that for days!!! It was classic!
Quoting Losttsol:


Don't tell that to HIghway 12 on Hatteras Island.


Yeah, the OBX are some pretty thin slivers of land...doesn't take much to wash Hiway 12 out.
Quoting 753. VAbeachhurricanes:

Hope the NHC servers are good, figure they are about to get an F5 workout :)


Where is Sammywammybammy
Quoting 748. silas:


For what it's worth, I appreciate that you see things how they are, not blowing things out of proportion and, dare I say it, wishcasting. Thank you.

I also appreciate Sar2401 as the voice of reason, but you still have to give StormtrackerScott some credit. He's both knowledgeable and devastatingly handsome. You can tell he works out.
Can someone give me a link to where you're getting the vortex messages??

Thanks..
Quoting 722. MLTracking:



Just as I feared... Arthur has hard zagged back to the West after hard zigging to the East a couple hours ago. Is it rapid center relocs? Now that the big feeder band is going add 5+% to his volume, if he charges
West while putting on this weight, heading back NE as forecasted is gonna be tough.
768. HCW
Quoting 764. nrtiwlnvragn:



Where is Sammywammybammy
I would bet in jail somewhere but what do I know  :)  NHC Conf call underway at this time


987?!
Quoting nash36:


If it's Avila, it could get rather entertaining. I forget which storm it was that sent him into "unhinged" territory, but I was dining out on that for days!!! It was classic!

Hurricane Epsilon?
000
URNT15 KWBC 022031
NOAA3 0801A ARTHUR HDOB 14 20140702
202130 3005N 07934W 6423 03811 0012 +066 +029 037033 034 038 000 00
202200 3004N 07933W 6425 03805 9991 +078 +024 037034 035 037 001 00
202230 3002N 07931W 6423 03804 9980 +083 +027 029033 034 037 001 00
202300 3000N 07930W 6423 03802 9986 +077 +030 031033 034 037 000 00
202330 2958N 07929W 6421 03799 9977 +080 +026 030035 037 038 000 00
202400 2956N 07927W 6422 03792 9982 +073 +030 025033 035 040 001 00
202430 2954N 07926W 6419 03791 9967 +077 +044 028034 036 042 001 00
202500 2952N 07925W 6420 03782 9945 +088 +037 027036 037 042 002 00
202530 2950N 07923W 6525 03645 9930 +102 +035 022037 039 043 002 00
202600 2948N 07922W 6612 03528 9931 +105 +041 026042 043 045 002 03
202630 2947N 07919W 6655 03467 9919 +111 +048 021044 045 045 002 00
202700 2946N 07917W 6673 03437 9915 +108 +060 008041 042 042 003 00
202730 2945N 07915W 6665 03434 9891 +116 +068 356037 041 037 000 03
202800 2944N 07913W 6669 03421 9887 +110 +081 353028 031 024 001 00
202830 2944N 07910W 6667 03416 9878 +112 +081 354016 020 020 002 00
202900 2944N 07907W 6670 03413 9879 +110 +070 260003 007 021 000 00
202930 2944N 07905W 6665 03418 9877 +113 +074 180011 015 018 001 00
203000 2943N 07903W 6671 03415 9887 +110 +056 170018 020 017 001 03
203030 2942N 07901W 6669 03421 9884 +113 +055 169022 022 022 000 00
203100 2941N 07859W 6673 03419 9887 +114 +052 182024 025 027 001 00


987.7!
70mph TS at 5PM.
If A maintains its core should see 85-90 MPH eventually. Would be surprised to see it go above 90 JMO.
Quoting 761. HCW:


There is software and apps for that stop living in the 90's



No software/apps can replace a WU tradition.
Quoting 726. sar2401:


How's that 5"-10" rain doing down there, Scott? If you prefer to call using actual data downcasting then so be it. I do try not to blow things up more than there seems to be evidence to support.


Sar's not a downcaster, he's just the show me the facts realist. He's maybe downcasted a lot over the last twelve months, but that's been some conditionally based realist downcasting. Which has usually panned out. I've often, perhaps almost every time taken the overcaster opposite side of the coin with him, and we'll I'm a Cubs fan too. You see my point. Scott's really bright, knows the science, and is an over enthusiast like me in projections some times. We need all here to keep it fun and exciting. Doomcasters, overcasters, downcasters, and the realists who closely keep their projections in line with the NHC. Been a really good twelve month run for downcasters. They were due after the decade we've had.
Quoting rwdobson:


Yeah, the OBX are some pretty thin slivers of land...doesn't take much to wash Hiway 12 out.
With coastal flooding, new jetties will form, and others will become causeways. It's an interesting place. The land is remade every so often.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
60 kt, slight increase to reach hurricane.... blah blah blah.......

I think that's exactly what they'll do.
Quoting 660. bigwes6844:

check this out look at the MJO for the rest of july



if it verifies, might get ones mind to wondering?
779. HCW
Quoting 772. weatherguy03:

70mph TS at 5PM.
You are correct sir and you win a prize  . How are things down in FL Bob ?
Wow, extrapolated pressure on the NOAA plane of 987.7mb, that's not official but the last one was only about 2mb lower than what the AF plane had, and regardless that's about a 3mb drop in just a half hour to an hour or so!
Big dip in the jet for July..Steering currents show nicely on W.V.
70mph or 75mph is immaterial really
783. FOREX
Quoting 766. JrWeathermanFL:

Can someone give me a link to where you're getting the vortex messages??

Thanks..


www.grothar.net
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Wow, extrapolated pressure on the NOAA plane of 987.5mb, that's not official but the last one was only about 2mb lower than what the AF plane had, and regardless that's about a 3mb drop in just a half hour to an hour or so!

We'll know in about 15 minutes. I don't think it dropped 3 mb in a half hour.


Even if at this advisory, it's not a cane, I fail to see how Arthur could miss hurricane status at some point.
Quoting 782. Drakoen:

70mph or 75mph is immaterial really



It's all about the name man, don't you know that by now?
Who's got a link to the LGEM?
Quoting 769. JrWeathermanFL:



987?!


Measured from 12,000 feet above the eye.
Quoting Drakoen:
70mph or 75mph is immaterial really
Agree. Except for those wagering on hurricane status. There are some dinners, bottles of fine liquor, boxes of fine cigars, etc. riding on some of this.
Quoting 686. WeatherNerdPR:

The high rain rates are likely due to the ongoing burst in the NE side of the eyewall, which is where recon is currently passing.



Not necessarily, 1.57 in/hr is not a particularly high rain rate for a tropical system by any means considering PW's of 2.3-2.6 and the warm rain process that occurs in a warm core environment.

Generally speaking, that's typical of a run of the mill convective shower band for a tropical system. I've seen enough of them living in Florida to know. Stronger convection in tropical system puts out 2-4 inch/hr rain rates, and the deepest inner core convection can be much higher than that in the strongest inner core cells. I've experienced 4-7 inch per rain rates in multiple systems such as Debby, Frances, and Jeanne. Although of course you won't actually see that much in an hour because convective cores are racing by at quick speeds, and such rainfall intensity usually only lasts 5-10 min. However, when the bands train, the on and off deluge of rain can average out to a lot in one hour.

Its hard to measure rainfall in strong winds though as well, rainfall will tend to be under-measured if winds get strong enough.
Quoting hydrus:
Big dip in the jet for July..Steering currents show nicely on W.V.

Yes, it should give Arthur a nice push to the NE and, maybe, usher in our "not as hot" front here. I'll take any kind of relief at this point.
Quoting 787. weatherh98:




It's all about the name man, don't you know that by now?


I'm aware of that, just stating my opinion.
Quoting 783. FOREX:



www.grothar.net


I didn't believe you but I tried it anyways.

Cause there needs to be a www.grothar.net

or .gov
795. HCW

Quoting 785. sar2401:


We'll know in about 15 minutes. I don't think it dropped 3 mb in a half hour.
The advisory has been out for about 10 mins if you have the right sources
Quoting 789. Bluestorm5:



Measured from 12,000 feet above the eye.


Thank God.
Hurricane Arthur is about to be here oh....
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


Even if at this advisory, it's not a cane, I fail to see how Arthur could miss hurricane status at some point.

That's what the NHC has been saying for days now so I'd agree with that statement.
Quoting 790. LightningCharmer:

Agree. Except for those wagering on hurricane status. There are some dinners, bottles of fine liquor, boxes of fine cigars, etc. riding on some of this.


there will be some who will claim computer issues and run off if hurricane status is given..funny I saw no crow in your party prizes..
I have never seen a storm this organized still be classified as a Tropical Storm other than one one time....Fay in 2008 had an eye over Florida and was still a TS
Quoting 767. redwagon:

Quoting 722. MLTracking:



Just as I feared... Arthur has hard zagged back to the West after hard zigging to the East a couple hours ago. Is it rapid center relocs? Now that the big feeder band is going add 5+% to his volume, if he charges
West while putting on this weight, heading back NE as forecasted is gonna be tough.


Interesting that you point that out. The 2 center fixes revealed a slight west of due north motion.
Quoting HCW:

The advisory has been out for about 10 mins if you have the right sources

Ah, I see. I don't have the right sources since I'm just some guy on the internet.
Reminder that Miss Piggy (plane's name) "found" 990 mb at surface before dropsonde recorded 995 mb on last pass. It'll be 991 or 992 mb. She's at 11,000 feet above ocean surface so her measurements are likely to be less accurate than WC-130 plane flying lower.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 20:21ZAircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 6Observation Number: 10A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 20:03:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°42'N 79°10'W (29.7N 79.1667W) (View map)B. Center Fix Location: 118 miles (189 km) to the ENE (73°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,354m (4,442ft) at 850mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the ENE (70°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 71kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 81.7mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (68°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.29 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Open, Open NWM. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 300° to 120° (WNW to ESE)M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles)M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical milesRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) at 0:68Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the ENE (75°) from the flight level centerRemarks Section - Additional Remarks.../ 20 NM 19:57:00ZCTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 150 / 5 KTGeneral Notes About Vortex Messages:- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm."- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the "maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center."(Quotes from National Hurricane Operations Plan - NHOP)
Quoting 788. Barefootontherocks:

Who's got a link to the LGEM?


It is displayed as part of the SHIPS Text. Not aware of any site that specifically has that model's data.
Next advisory 992 mb, 70 mph, track stays the same. That is what I deduce by the vapid comments by "people in the know" on this site.
50 comments in 13 minutes here on this blog. Nice to see some activity for once.

:-)
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 79.1W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
Wow, I'm very surprised. 70mph TS it is.
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Measured from 12,000 feet above the eye.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't they extrapolate it to ground level? The previous intercept into the eye showed a 991mb pressure that was confirmed by the USAF plane.
TWC just said Official 5pm
70 mph Tropical Storm
992 mb
N at 7 mph
I tried to explain to my dad what Explosive Deepening was and he thought I was starting to talk about taking a dump in the toilet...

That's why I never go into detail about cyclones with my family..
60kts 992mb. Hurricane Warnings up.
Quoting 806. MrstormX:

Next advisory 992 mb, 70 mph, track stays the same. That is what I deduce by the vapid comments by "people in the know" on this site.


You can't get any closer to hurricane status than that.
Quoting 807. Astrometeor:

50 comments in 13 minutes here on this blog. Nice to see some activity for once.

:-)
I've seen faster rate of activity back in 2011...
70mph, intensity forecast remains the same.
Just for 09

FORECASTER AVILA
Quoting 801. tropicfreak:



Interesting that you point that out. The 2 center fixes revealed a slight west of due north motion.
That trough may actually give it a tug westward before it starts accelerating north.
Quoting Astrometeor:


No software/apps can replace a WU tradition.

Weren't you the one who said you can tell a hardcore WU regular because the lettering was worn off the F5 key? ;-)
Quoting 810. CybrTeddy:



Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't they extrapolate it to ground level? The previous intercept into the eye showed a 991mb pressure that was confirmed by the USAF plane.
Well, that's true...
Quoting 802. sar2401:

Ah, I see. I don't have the right sources since I'm just some guy on the internet.

LOL. 10 Minutes ago it WAS a Tropical Storm. :)
Avila putting winds at 60kts at 5pm.

Keeping the maximum intensity at 75kts.

Disagree with him but it is what it is LOL.
Quoting 815. Bluestorm5:

I've seen faster rate of activity back in 2011...


I know Kyle, I was just saying. I don't think 2013 ever saw anything other than a few "hey...nope, it's gone."
Down 3 mb in 1 hour 30 minutes from the readings of the second plane. Thats a drop of 2 mb per hour.

Between the two plane data sets, Arthur is deepening by ~2.15 mb per hour.

Rapid deepening is a 42 mb drop in 24 hours. At 2.15 mb per hour, you can say Arthur has entered the necessary rate for it to occur, but will it be able to sustain that rate?
Prepare yourselves! There is going to be a flood of public advisory's coming in anytime now.
Quoting ncstorm:


there will be some who will claim computer issues and run off if hurricane status is given..funny I saw no crow in your party prizes..
Crow is complimentary as a door prize for those who weren't so fortunate in their choices.
Quoting 817. nrtiwlnvragn:

Just for 09

FORECASTER AVILA
Should of known!
Right now Arthur appears to be making a B Line for Myrtle Beach SC and it appears the center may be a little left of the NHC forecast at the moment
No Hurricane, 70 MPH, 992 mb reports The Weather Channel.
Quoting 819. sar2401:


Weren't you the one who said you can tell a hardcore WU regular because the lettering was worn off the F5 key? ;-)


Not me. You don't know how long it took me to figure out what everyone was talking about when they said "F5 storm comin' ". Now I know, but I still don't do it to the extent that some do here.
Quoting 817. nrtiwlnvragn:

Just for 09

FORECASTER AVILA
LOL, stayed true to himself and kept it a TS.
If HH finds anything hurricane force, we could always have a special advisory for the upgrade, for now NHC seems on par with recon data.
Quoting 817. nrtiwlnvragn:

Just for 09

FORECASTER AVILA


That probably means that Arthur is like...73.99mph right now..
Quoting 833. MrstormX:

If HH finds anything hurricane force, we could always have a special advisory for the upgrade, for now NHC seems on par with recon data.


I cant remember which storm but I have seen them do it 15 or so minutes after the regular update..
Quoting CybrTeddy:
70mph, intensity forecast remains the same.
HOW?!
Quoting 817. nrtiwlnvragn:

Just for 09

FORECASTER AVILA

Well, we did met each other in Atlanta. Very interesting guy with good sense of humor.
Quoting 807. Astrometeor:

50 comments in 13 minutes here on this blog. Nice to see some activity for once.

:-)
XD more than any day of 2013.
Quoting 832. MiamiHurricanes09:

LOL, stayed true to himself and kept it a TS.


That is all the data supported. Would have needed 80 kt flight level at 850 mb for hurricane.
Here we go folks....I think this may shift even farther left ...remember what I said ? the longer it moves NORTH the farther left the track will go


Quoting 828. ncstorm:


Avila's probably looking at this blog, laughing.
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


Sar's not a downcaster, he's just the show me the facts realist. He's maybe downcasted a lot over the last twelve months, but that's been some conditionally based realist downcasting. Which has usually panned out. I've often, perhaps almost every time taken the overcaster opposite side of the coin with him, and we'll I'm a Cubs fan too. You see my point. Scott's really bright, knows the science, and is an over enthusiast like me in projections some times. We need all here to keep it fun and exciting. Doomcasters, overcasters, downcasters, and the realists who closely keep their projections in line with the NHC. Been a really good twelve month run for downcasters. They were due after the decade we've had.

LOL. As I recall, you and I were on opposite ends of the forecast this morning as well. I just don't see storms that have had this many problems getting organized as being rapid intensifiers. There's no question it will reach 90 mph hurricane status in my mind. Beyond that, I need some data.
Looks like tropical storm warnings finally went up for Virginia Beach according to the NOAA map.
02/1745 UTC 29.2N 79.1W T4.0/4.0 ARTHUR -- Atlantic
Quoting 829. weatherlover94:

Right now Arthur appears to be making a B Line for Myrtle Beach SC and it appears the center may be a little left of the NHC forecast at the moment


The models are already performed well and forecasting Arthur at its most difficult point, while weak at very little steering. If they did well with that difficult situation, I doubt it will swing that far left. Its possible, but very unlikely. The reason it will begin to curve is the same reason it turned north, in response to high pressure in the Atlantic. The forecast won't be as hard from here as it was earlier.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That is all the data supported. Would have needed 80 kt flight level at 850 mb for hurricane.

I haven't seen the actual update yet but you have better sources than me. At least we both agreed on this one. I'm just a data driven kind of guy. :-)
Arthur could reach 80-85 mph by the next advisory...jmo
Quoting 843. Losttsol:

Looks like tropical storm warnings finally went up for Virginia Beach according to the NOAA map.


Not surprised they did it.
Quoting 839. nrtiwlnvragn:



That is all the data supported. Would have needed 80 kt flight level at 850 mb for hurricane.
The SFMR data in the vortex would've been enough for me, but then again I'm just a blogger lol. I understand the thinking behind it.
850. silas

Quoting interstatelover7166:
HOW?!
Um, there isn't enough evidence to support more =) The NHC is usually pretty conservative, as we all know.

SevereStudios @severestudios · 47 seg

BREAKING: Tropical Storm Arthur now up to 70mph winds.
HURRICANE WARNING issued for the NC COAST from SURF CITY to DUCK, NC.

I think the only controversial thing about this advisory is that the projected strength is too low, given model support and the fact that Arthur is already more intense than expected.
Quoting 841. WeatherNerdPR:

Avila's probably looking at this blog, laughing.
lol
I don't post as often during active storms, and particularly land falling ones, because amateur opinions and "gut feelings" don't cut it at a time like this.  NHC and your local authorities are the official sources you need to rely on to make decisions involving your own life and or property.

With that being said, Arthur is starting to wrap up nicely this afternoon.
Quoting interstatelover7166:
HOW?!

Because that's what ALL the data showed. We only see a small part of the big picture. There are no consequences for us if we make forecasts that reflect what we think or believe compared to what the data shows. The same is not true for the NHC.
Quoting 849. MiamiHurricanes09:

The SFMR data in the vortex would've been enough for me, but then again I'm just a blogger lol. I understand the thinking behind it.


SFMR to my knowledge has never proven to be more reliable than standard reductions from flight-level. To me, the latter is a more fundamental measurement, especially since it's above the turbulent boundary layer. Even NHC seems to think so most of the time.
I wonder if Doc Masters has a blog written up already for a (about-to-be Hurricane) Arthur and he is just waiting for the NHC to say so.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 022054
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes are once again
sending data from Arthur. The data suggest that the cyclone is
gradually strengthening and the wind field is expanding. Satellite
images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better organized
with an eye feature surrounded by moderate convection. Based on the
above information, the initial intensity has been increased to 60
knots at this time. There is still some mid-level dry air in the
vicinity of Arthur that is currently limiting significant
intensification. However, given an otherwise favorable environment
of warm water and weak wind shear, the NHC forecast calls for
Arthur to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours. Global
models, primarily the ECMWF and the GFS intensify the cyclone
significantly, and also expand the wind field as the center moves
near the North Carolina coast.

Arthur has been steered northward or 360 degrees at 6 knots,
steered by a weak flow on the western side of the subtropical
ridge. In about 24 hours, the cyclone will recurve and
move northeastward with increasing speed as it becomes embedded
within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. Since most of the
guidance has shifted a little bit to the west, the official
forecast was adjusted westward, and it now brings the core of
Arthur close to the coast of North Carolina. This prompted
the issuance of a hurricane warning for a portion of the coast.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 29.7N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 30.7N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 32.4N 78.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 37.2N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 43.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 49.0N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1800Z 53.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Quoting 847. hydrus:
Arthur could reach 80-85 mph by the next advisory...jmo

They won't upgrade that fast. They will go with 75 initially and move from there to 80 and a jump to 90.
First recon plane looks like it's getting ready to make another pass at the center:

Quoting 801. tropicfreak:



Interesting that you point that out. The 2 center fixes revealed a slight west of due north motion.


The way Arthur's been swapping centers today, I don't trust any model. Models don't see center relocations
in their math.
Quoting Luisport:

SevereStudios @severestudios 47 seg

BREAKING: Tropical Storm Arthur now up to 70mph winds.
HURRICANE WARNING issued for the NC COAST from SURF CITY to DUCK, NC.


Wrong. There have been hurricane WATCHES posted. Really, getting information from the NHC is a lot better than some unknown bunch on Twitter.

EDIT. My mistake. There indeed warnings posted. I apologize to the unknown bunch on Twitter. :-)
Quoting interstatelover7166:
HOW?!


Highest SFMR reading was rain contaminated, highest flight-level winds to sfc reading was 70mph.
Live NC Newscast on Arthur:

http://www.wwaytv3.com/watch-wway-live

000
WTNT31 KNHC 022054
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

...ARTHUR ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 79.1W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY...FROM NORTH OF DUCK TO
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING CHEASEPEAKE BAY...AND
FOR THE WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING
CHEASEPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND


A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE
CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COASTS OF SOUTH
AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ARTHUR IS EXPECETD TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...2 TO 4 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ARTHUR ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Quoting 862. sar2401:


Wrong. There have been hurricane WATCHES posted. Really, getting information from the NHC is a lot better than some unknown bunch on Twitter.


Ummmm they've been switched to warnings



Quoting 751. Losttsol:



I think it will make it want to pull more north that east.


Let's hope so!
Quoting sar2401:

Wrong. There have been hurricane WATCHES posted. Really, getting information from the NHC is a lot better than some unknown bunch on Twitter.

"CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS."
The local news seems to be reporting that people are not prepared for Arthur, people "hope the storm misses". Everybody is out chilling on the beach and not preparing.

This according to WWAY.
Does anyone know if The Weather Channel is going to go into Storm Alert mode for Arthur ?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The intensity forecast is underwhelming given the recent developments, but Arthur can prove the NHC wrong soon enough.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/07/02/antar ctic-sea-ice-hits-second-all-time-record-in-a-week /
On Melbourne radar it looks like the eye is collapsing.
Quoting redwagon:


The way Arthur's been swapping centers today, I don't trust any model. Models don't see center relocations
in their math.

Sure they do. That's why the track was shifted slightly west. They see the trends as well. If this trend continues, the conditions on the NC coast may be worse than what has been thought. However, that is not in evidence yet. You can be sure the NHC is very closely following the trend. It's certainly better than us looking at each jog and extrapolating that out as a new track.
A little funnel from the band that came though S.W. Florida. This is from Englewood Fl. which is up the coast from Fort Myers.
40% of people on WWAY, say Arthur will just be "another day on the beach." The news station has not even mentioned the Hurricane Warnings yet, this is part of the problem with Arthur not being upgraded...people think "tropical storm" and think that it is a little rain shower. They hear "Hurricane", and run away.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

"CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS."

Yes, that's why I did an edit to my original post. doesn't matter now.
Quoting 869. MrstormX:

The local news seems to be reporting that people are not prepared for Arthur, people "hope the storm misses". Everybody is out chilling on the beach and not preparing.

This according to WWAY.
The folks that live there know what to do. The tourists may not, and if they do not obey warnings will suffer for it. If I was living in N.C, you can bet I would be taking the situation seriously.
Our friends along the North Carolina coastal areas basically have until tomorrow afternoon/early evening to make plans/take precautions before conditions begin to deteriorate. If you have any friends or family in those areas, give them a call tonight the tell them they might want/need to get off of work early tomorrow to make whatever prep they need and to beat the last minute rush at stores.  Those causeways out to any barrier islands will start to close tomorrow evening as winds start to pick up and the NE quadrant of the storm is finally starting to look pretty healthy at the moment. 
Is it possible that the inverted trough in the GOM could punch a weakness into the trough that is supposed to pick up Arthur? I noticed that there's somewhat of a cavity in the middle of the trough now where the weather associated with the blow up in the GOM collided with it. Hopefully this isn't the case.
Quoting 877. MrstormX:

40% of people on WWAY, say Arthur will just be "another day on the beach." The news station has not even mentioned the Hurricane Warnings yet, this is part of the problem with Arthur not being upgraded...people think "tropical storm" and think that it is a little rain shower. They hear "Hurricane", and run away.


A friend of mine from UNCA last year joined WWAY back in May. Don't worry, she grew up surviving hurricanes in eastern North Carolina. I'm sure she'll become more urgent tonight and tomorrow.
Quoting 880. weathermanwannabe:

Our friends along the North Carolina coastal areas basically have until tomorrow afternoon/early evening to make plans/take precautions before conditions begin to deteriorate. If you have any friends or family in those areas, give them a call tonight the tell them they might want/need to get off of work early tomorrow to make whatever prep they need and to beat the last minute rush at stores.  Those causeways out to any barrier islands will start to close tomorrow evening as winds start to pick up and the NE quadrant of the storm is finally starting to look pretty healthy at the moment. 



It's strange because UNC-Wilmington hasn't said anything about the storm since 9 AM and the summer semester is still ongoing.
I WAS WATCHING THE STORMS OVER THE EVERGLADES HAD SOME ROTATION ALSO. class='blogquote'>Quoting 876. Sfloridacat5:

A little funnel from the band that came though S.W. Florida. This is from Englewood Fl. which is up the coast from Fort Myers.

887. FOREX
Quoting 870. weatherlover94:

Does anyone know if The Weather Channel is going to go into Storm Alert mode for Arthur ?


Most likely not in storm mode. There are too many garbage reality shows scheduled.
Arthur has wrapped up into a tight circulation center and could peak as a category 2 storm closing on NC. People there need to start stocking up on supplies and items as the major models showing this to be more than a craze at the coast.
Quoting 887. FOREX:



Most likely not in storm mode. There are too many garbage reality shows scheduled.


NHC will probably go into alert tomorrow. But your right if they don't do so people will probably not take hid.

45 minutes without a comment? Thought the site crashed.
Can anyone explain this? On Levi's site for the Recon it has the altitude listed as:
Altitude: 14291 gpm What does GPM stand for. Nothing I can think
of with those letters is related to altitude.
Quoting 886. pspredicts:

I WAS WATCHING THE STORMS OVER THE EVERGLADES HAD SOME ROTATION ALSO. class='blogquote'>Quoting 876. Sfloridacat5:

A little funnel from the band that came though S.W. Florida. This is from Englewood Fl. which is up the coast from Fort Myers.




That awesome! I was just in pretty much that same spot. Just got back from fishing on Rocky Creek and Lemon Bay here in Englewood.
time for the carolina's to prepare..models this morning put arthur more westward...............................