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Rammasun Nears South China – Atlantic Remains ‘Quiet’ As Record Cold / Heat Affect US

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:50 PM GMT on July 17, 2014

(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

Deadly Typhoon Rammasun is located about 440NM NW of Manila heading towards the South China Island of Hainan (population of 9 million). Latest satellite imagery estimates indicate the central pressure is near 955mb, with Max sustained winds of 80Kts. Over the last 6 hours, both IR and water vapor imagery has shown a significant improvement in the convective banding structure and a clearing out of the eye – both indicative of re-intensification.



Figure 1: Latest Enhanced IR image of Rammasun clearly shows a well defined eye within a more symmetrical imagery signature. Banding is evident with extremely cold cloud tops to the North/Northeast of the center.

Until last night, official and model forecasts pointed towards a re-intensification of Rammasun to a solid CAT 3 or Cat 4 prior to reaching Hainan. However, despite the significant improvement in the satellite signature, most forecast models have trimmed the intensity forecast to a strong CAT 2 or minimal CAT 3 within 12 hours, with a slow weakening thereafter. Model projections call for a strong CAT 1 or low end CAT 2 by the time the storm makes landfall along the north coast of the Island near Haikou around 10Z on Friday due to its interaction with land and somewhat cooler SST’s near the South China coast.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a "orange warning for typhoon" for the provinces of Hainan, Guangdong, and Guangxi, all in southern China. The three provinces have a combined population of over 150 million people. An orange warning is the second-highest level in China's four-tier warning system. Once the cyclone passes by Hainan, the storm is expected to make its final landfall in extreme northern Vietnam with Tropical Storm strength winds. (Note: Vietnam's National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has also issued a typhoon warning for portions of northern Vietnam.)



Figure 2: The latest available JTWCTrack forecast for Rassmasun shows the cyclone passing across the northern coast of Hainan as a CAT 2 Typhoon between 06Z and 18Z Friday.

Meanwhile, up on deck is TD#10 which has formed near 10N / 135E with estimated max winds of 30Kts. Imagery indicates the system is essentially stationary, with a slight westward drift noted over the last 12 hours. As late as yesterday, most of the reliable forecast models had forecast this system to become a strong Typhoon over the next 3-5 days with a slow forward acceleration towards the WNW and then NW towards Taiwan. However, the last 4 global model forecast cycles have dramatically changed, with most models now depicting a weak Tropical storm development. Nonetheless, latest official forecasts still call for the development of a CAT 1 typhoon over the weekend, with a track that continues to take aim on Taiwan. This forecast appears to be the most likely scenario based on the most recent SAT imagery.



Figure 3: The above NEXSAT image from last night shows both Rammasun and what is now, TD #10



Figure 4: Track/Intensity forecast for TD #10 shows the cyclone intensifying to CAT 1 as it approaches Taiwan on Tuesday. However, please note that the latest GFS model run does NOT forecast this system to intensify; contrary to yesterday’s model runs calling for a significant typhoon.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC

The Tropical Atlantic remains quiet – but there are continuing signs that conditions are trending towards a more ‘seasonal’ environment, as the first relatively significant Tropical wave emerges off the west African coast – and one that isn’t embedded in the Saharan Air Layer (SAL)! Deep convection is associated with the tropical wave – though the latest animated SAT imagery indicates relatively weak Vorticity associated with this system.

In general, Water Vapor imagery shows a general moistening across the CARIB eastward to the African coast – though wind shear, while falling off during the past few days, remains relatively high across much of the CARIB. In addition, with SST’s still slightly below normal, an overall stable environment persists across much of the CARIB eastward to the African coast. Bottom line: no cyclone formation is expected during the next 7 days



Figure 5: The most significant tropical wave is shown emerging off the West African coast earlier this morning, with waves clearly seen over the central Tropical Atlantic and a more complex wave structure approaching the eastern CARIB. These latter waves MAY may manage to bring some well needed showers to portions of the CARIB over the weekend and next week.




Figure 6: Strong and deep convection associated with the Tropical Wave near the African coast, with minor, but significant convection observed with the central AT and near CARIB waves.




Figure 7: The SAL is well north of the tropical wave off the African coast – the first time this has happened this summer; reflecting the typical intra-seasonal trend that typically begins by late JUL.




Figure 8: This derived image depicts total precipitable water – with somewhat greater totals now shown extending across the deep tropics from just east of the CARIB to the African coast, while some ‘moistening’ of the atmosphere noted over the CARIB as well.



Figure 9: The 850mb Vorticity analysis over the eastern ATL shows a minimal VORT structure associated with the wave that has just emerged off the African coast – while also indicating a far more significant VORT signature associated with the next tropical wave expected to reach the coast late FRI.

RECORDS FALL ACROSS THE NATION

The major upper level TROF that dug southward over the eastern US during the past few days has brought unseasonably ‘cold’ air to much of the central and eastern US during the last couple of days, while the persistent western ridge has led to numerous record highs, especially to the PAC NW northward into portions of western Canada. At the same time, severe drought conditions continue across much of the west, with numerous wild fires in the PAC NW.

Some notable Record Lows reported over the past 2 days include:

Springfield, IL: 52ᵒ
Ottumwa , IA: 49ᵒ
International Falls, MN: 39ᵒ
Little Rock, AR: 62ᵒ
St. Joseph, MO: 51ᵒ
Norfolk, NE: 47ᵒ
Lincoln, NE: 48ᵒ
Moline, IL: 52ᵒ
Mobile, AL: 64ᵒ
Pensacola, FL 66ᵒ

Some Record Low ‘MAX’ Temps on Tuesday:

Goodland, KS: 62ᵒ
Appleton, WI 66ᵒ
Rhinelander, WI 62ᵒ

Some Record Highs:

Moses Lake, OR: 106ᵒ
Pendleton, OR: 105ᵒ
Seattle, WA: 89ᵒ
Yakima, WA: 101ᵒ
Redmond, WA: 100ᵒ
Hanford, WA: 105ᵒ
Pasco, WA: 109ᵒ

Record High ‘MIN’ Temp:

Elko, NV: 71ᵒ - (Also the second warmest Low ever recorded!

And to round it all out – an amazing RAINFALL Record of 0.85” was set yesterday at Tonopah, Nevada.

Steve Gregory

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. JRRP
shear normal-below normal
Chinese weather page showing radar image sequences of Rammusan's closest approach to Hainan.
Link
Taz, Deep sea is trolling you, and as far as El Nino it will be weak and form in the late fall to early winter, thus not affecting this years hurricane season. 4 named storms August, 7 named storms September, 3 named storms October, and 1 or 2 named storms November. The sea surface temps are rising in the MDR, shear is relaxing and should be normal by the heart of the season thru late fall, the ITCZ is moving to it normal position for the season, and finally vertical instability is slowly increasing. For all you down casters good luck.


starting to see more rain and t.storms here
Quoting GatorWX:




Millions in it's path. That's a scary looking eyewall.


even when the media takes off one of their over-hyped pieces...they still have to hype their stories....it makes no sense to me....especially when it comes to weather...isn't the dynamics themselves awesome enough without having to add hype to it?

A Super-Strong El Niño Is Now Off the Table. Here’s What That Means.

By Eric Holthaus
The world’s average temperature is breaking records, and India’s monsoon is in shambles. Borderline El Niño conditions are already here. How much worse will it get?

New data released Thursday by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society—a climate forecasting partnership between Columbia University and NOAA—shows that while ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are still above normal, the atmospheric response has so far been sluggish. After an impressive ramp up earlier this year, that means the coming El Niño is increasingly likely to fall a bit flat.


40% in 120 hours from now.

Taz, Deep sea is trolling you, and as far as El Nino it will be weak and form in the late fall to early winter, thus not affecting this years hurricane season. 4 named storms August, 7 named storms September, 3 named storms October, and 1 or 2 named storms November. The sea surface temps are rising in the MDR, shear is relaxing and should be normal by the heart of the season thru late fall, the ITCZ is moving to it normal position for the season, and finally vertical instability is slowly increasing. For all you down casters good luck.

native...i'm not denying you you're opinion...although i disagree with it.....so...how would you explain the first two months of the season that have tracked very well with expected el nino conditions?
here's a great example of the results of hype.........stupidity at it's finest!!!!!

Water use up due to heat, faith in El Niño

Photo by Scott Bridges
What part of “drought” don’t we understand? Despite what has been termed the “worst drought in decades,” Southern Californians have upped their water usage by 8 percent in the month of May this year versus last. The worst offenders were in densely populated areas of Los Angeles and San Diego.

Quoting 507. hurricanes2018:



40% in 120 hours from now.


That would look like a potential frances
511. DDR
It's pouring rain atm @ my location in Trinidad.
Has anyone seen this yet. It's disturbing. This may be the big red flag warning that the permafrost is melting and methane gas is being released in copious amounts. Will it be news worthy. Probably not.
http://sploid.gizmodo.com/mysterious-hole-discove red-in-siberia-1605872539.
Its been here and everywhere since Sunday, but thanks anyway
Quoting 511. DDR:
It's pouring rain atm @ my location in Trinidad.
We could sure use some in the Cayman Islands.
Quoting 510. rmbjoe1954:



That would look like a potential frances

Or a potential Dorian, I wouldn't expect a major cape verde storm in an el nino year in early august
Quoting 512. KeyWestwx:

Has anyone seen this yet. It's disturbing. This may be the big red flag warning that the permafrost is melting and methane gas is being released in copious amounts. Will it be news worthy. Probably not.
http://sploid.gizmodo.com/mysterious-hole-discove red-in-siberia-1605872539.


My two cents - looks like an eruption from underground, and there appears to be a preexisting void. It's the richest natural gas region in Russia, so gas seeps into the void, and gets ignited, possibly by a lightning strike.
06Z Navgem

48 hours


60 hours


66 hours


A Happy 93rd Birthday to a American Hero.

John Glenn

There should be changing conditions in the Atlantic in the next two weeks, as I wrote on Monday. Here is a nice wave moving through the Windwards.

The wave which recently came off of Africa is the one to watch carefully. I see some have already posted the early psychogenesis models.



This we should watch closely






Good Morning Class!

A nice start to the day in Sooo Cal

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 18 Jul 7:36 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 18 Jul 7:20 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
18 Jul 7:20 am PDT 59 48 67 NNW 2G03 OK
18 Jul 7:10 am PDT 56 49 76 G01 OK
18 Jul 7:00 am PDT 54 48 80 SE 2G03 OK
The NAVGEM was the first model I saw that picked up on possible development a few days ago. The ECMWF had it and dropped it, but I think this is only temporary.

Quoting 497. opal92nwf:

Wow, it was PERFECT when it initially approached the coast.



ya she was!
Quoting Patrap:
A Happy 93rd Birthday to a American Hero.

John Glenn



FWIW, I've actually met Mr. Glenn. Swell guy, easy to see why so many people loved him. True American hero.
Quoting 522. Patrap:









don't you blow that mess this way.. they are already dumping two BILLION gallons a day to tide through our estuaries on the Indian River Lagoon from recent rain events. :)
Quoting NativeSun:
Taz, Deep sea is trolling you, and as far as El Nino it will be weak and form in the late fall to early winter, thus not affecting this years hurricane season. 4 named storms August, 7 named storms September, 3 named storms October, and 1 or 2 named storms November. The sea surface temps are rising in the MDR, shear is relaxing and should be normal by the heart of the season thru late fall, the ITCZ is moving to it normal position for the season, and finally vertical instability is slowly increasing. For all you down casters good luck.


This doesn't look like the vertical instability is "slowly rising" to me. This is what killed last year, and even if we don't get a El Nino, this year will still do the same to the Atlantic.

Quoting 500. slavicthunder:

That rotating blob of convection over Texas looks as if it is developing an eye. Nice.
Has 850 mb vortex.
My wind is not that strong, plus the Shear is High irg. : P
Quoting 520. Grothar:

There should be changing conditions in the Atlantic in the next two weeks, as I wrote on Monday. Here is a nice wave moving through the Windwards.

The wave which recently came off of Africa is the one to watch carefully. I see some have already posted the early psychogenesis models.



This we should watch closely







Nice to see Pottery and DDR receiving some beneficial rains in Trinidad. :)

Quoting 522. Patrap:







Hey Pat how's it going? I've always been meaning to ask you who is that guy and what show he was on.

Quoting 526. Grothar:


The DOOM!!! version of Landcane.
The latest

06z GFS Ensembles-starting at 48 hours








The Sheriff is Sheriff J.W. Peppa from Louisiana in the James Bond 70's Movie, "Live and Let Die", with many scenes filmed in NOLA and Se Louisiana.
Quoting 529. CybrTeddy:



This doesn't look like the vertical instability is "slowly rising" to me. This is what killed last year, and even if we don't get a El Nino, this year will still do the same to the Atlantic.




That's very interesting - way below average. Now, all we need is some moisture, moderate shear and away we go! I'm convinced lack of vertical instability has a bigger effect suppressing storms than is generally appreciated.

Was 40 now 64. I think this will go higher, sadly.



2 Tornadoes reported also.

539. FOREX
Quoting 534. Grothar:

The latest




Looks like a fish maybe?
Quoting 539. FOREX:



Looks like a fish maybe?


Wouldn't have thought so, with the unusually large A/B high. Got Miami written all over it.
541. FOREX
Quoting 540. yonzabam:



Wouldn't have thought so, with the unusually large A/B high. Got Miami written all over it.


Could use some rain here in the Florida panhandle.
Hey Grothar is that big thunderstorm over Texas moving into the gulf
Quoting yonzabam:


Wouldn't have thought so, with the unusually large A/B high. Got Miami written all over it.


shhhhh.... You'll get JFV all excited. LOL

Good night all, getting to cold for me.


Yes,,, it does feel that cold. But not as cold as it is down at my parents place.

Quoting 542. weatherman994:

Hey Grothar is that big thunderstorm over Texas moving into the gulf


Right now it looks like it is moving more South than SE. However, the blob to the east looks like it is dropping more to the SE.
Quoting 535. ncstorm:

06z GFS Ensembles-starting at 48 hours









Could be from that system over Burkina Faso.

Quoting 542. weatherman994:

Hey Grothar is that big thunderstorm over Texas moving into the gulf


Quoting 426. yonzabam:

Mosquito transmitted Chikungunya fever now confirmed in Florida

Since 2006 over 200 cases have been reported in the United States but only in people who had traveled to other countries. This is the first time the virus is confirmed to have been passed by mosquitoes to people on the U.S. mainland.

Link

Sounds like a Chinese menu takeout item!
00z CMC Ensembles

36 hours








Nice to see the southern parts of Texas receiving beneficial rains as well, love it when the wealth is shared.

Going to be a bit wet in Maui.
I hope my house in Kula will be ok.

Flash Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
425 AM HST FRI JUL 18 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ISLANDS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...

.DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL REACH THE WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE REST OF THE STATE
SUNDAY.

HIZ001>028-190330-
/O.CON.PHFO.FF.A.0006.140720T0400Z-140722T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-
MOLOKAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAKAI-LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KONA-
SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-
BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
425 AM HST FRI JUL 18 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM
HST MONDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* ALL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

* FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM HST MONDAY.

* UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FROM AN UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED INTENSE RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF FLOODING WILL OCCUR
OVER WINDWARD SLOPES... WITH A LESSER CHANCE OVER LEEWARD
LOCATIONS.
Quoting FOREX:
Are conditions conducive for development in the gulf right now? Watching the 1011 low in SE Texas make its way to the gulf.
yes they are. :-):-)
554. MahFL
Quoting 529. CybrTeddy:



This doesn't look like the vertical instability is "slowly rising" to me.


It is rising, it's just a little below normal.
Quoting 547. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Could be from that system over Burkina Faso.




the potential system is already in the atlantic..

I'm still not discounting the low that the models have been hinting at off the SE coast..sont also dont to take it out to sea just so fast..

12z SREF ensembles
Quoting 534. Grothar:
The latest

Bummer.. it dropped the Veracruz pouch... and rather odd for the models to group North, most CVs that jump off at or below 10o are Westerly long-trackers who undergo 10-15 center replacements along
their track. Especially with the AB high.
Quoting 554. MahFL:



It is rising, it's just a little below normal.
Just a little? lol
Current pouches

561. MahFL
Quoting 539. FOREX:



Looks like a fish maybe?


Before we start.....fish is OFF the menu, ok ?
Quoting 560. ncstorm:

Current pouches




current area of interest



XX/AOI/XXL
Quoting 561. MahFL:



Before we start.....fish is OFF the menu, ok ?
How about shrimp? :D
Quoting 551. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Nice to see the southern parts of Texas receiving beneficial rains as well, love it when the wealth is shared.

Thank you very much..... (where ya been!) hope the Western one boomerangs right back at us once it drinks
up some warm GOM water.


So grothar does it have any chance of development
Quoting 464. Tropicsweatherpr:

Some bad news for a warming ENSO.

June PDO data cooled a little bit


Still positive though.
Quoting 562. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



current area of interest



XX/AOI/XXL

That's around the same area that Hurricane Charley began. The Jet might keep it in check, but you never know.






here we go!! need to be watch!
Quoting 562. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



current area of interest



XX/AOI/XXL



well hey keep..havent seen you on here much..hope everything is going well for ya..
Quoting 537. yonzabam:



That's very interesting - way below average. Now, all we need is some moisture, moderate shear and away we go! I'm convinced lack of vertical instability has a bigger effect suppressing storms than is generally appreciated.


A big factor must be the strong Bermuda high and the Pacific stealing the moisture with its storms.
Are these tropical waves too far south to get much rotational development on their treck across the Atlantic?
How is the salinity in the Indian River Lagoon? Is it low enough to at least get rid of the marine alage that bloomed last year in the north IRL?

Send the rain to cental florida and lake apopka.
Quoting 565. weatherman994:

So grothar does it have any chance of development


You mean the Texas blob? It looks like it wants to spin into MX, back out to the GOM from Veracruz,
maybe this blob - I'm assuming Gro has assigned demi-blob status here - will absorb the pouch that moved
onshore in Veracruz. TX has a couple days of no-ridge left, this would be a Godsend if this pre-blob came
back to Centex.
Quoting 571. biff4ugo:

Are these tropical waves too far south to get much rotational development on their treck across the Atlantic?

not really
has to be below 5 degrees north lat
from now till mid sept anything is possible
late july now
things normally pick up with tropical disturb areas

Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 555 kilometres (345 mi) or 5 degrees of latitude away from the equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation.
Quoting 538. AussieStorm:

Was 40 now 64. I think this will go higher, sadly.



2 Tornadoes reported also.



Is any of this in Haikou?
Quoting 569. ncstorm:



well hey keep..havent seen you on here much..hope everything is going well for ya..
ya ok just took a blog vacation
577. 7544
july 18 rainbow looking interesting 3 atl waves to watch and the the land blob heading south to the gom if it gets there could it move further east ? kkep in mind docs on vacation lol
Quoting 571. biff4ugo:

Are these tropical waves too far south to get much rotational development on their treck across the Atlantic?





tropical wave west 27 got a spin to it
Quoting 575. opal92nwf:


Is any of this in Haikou?


Think it's from the Philippines only
Quoting 571. biff4ugo:

Are these tropical waves too far south to get much rotational development on their treck across the Atlantic?


storms tend to gain latitude as they move further west ..
Looking like a huge flooding event for Haikou on Hainan Island, meanwhile on the storms northern side, also the strongest, looks to have impacted Xuwen County of Guangdong Province, China. Home to more than 600,000. It is likely that a wide area of 100 plus knot winds affected this area today as the storm roared over.





CLICK IMAGE FOR MAGNIFICATION
Severe damage and casualties as Super Typhoon Rammasun pummels southern China
The storm also brought severe infrastructure damage and flooding to the provincial capital of Haikou as it moved northwestward after landfall, CCTV said. Dozens of residents were injured by falling objects and broken windows as all transportation in the city ground to a halt. Many vehicles were submerged on flooded roads, images uploaded by residents to social media showed.

What were people doing out on the streets!? Maybe they didn't think it was going to be that bad?
Quoting 571. biff4ugo:

Are these tropical waves too far south to get much rotational development on their treck across the Atlantic?

Didn't seem to bother Ivan
Quoting 580. opal92nwf:


Link


Appears from this view that the strongest storms were on the southern side as it passed over the island and then made land fall on the mainland ..
Typhoon Rammasun
Summer Flooding in China
Catagory 3?
Quoting 584. opal92nwf:

Or Dean or Felix, either.
Oh... you said...huge flooding event for Haikou
not huge flooding event in Haiku
Quoting 587. redwagon:

Quoting 584. opal92nwf:

Or Dean or Felix, either.


Or something like Chantal.
Quoting 7544:
july 18 rainbow looking interesting 3 atl waves to watch and the the land blob heading south to the gom if it gets there could it move further east ? kkep in mind docs on vacation lol


HRRR weakens the convection significantly over South Tx. this evening.
But it does show a weak circulation about to move into the GOM around Corpus Christi at Midnight tonight.
Not sure if anything can become of it. It seems most of the energy from the system has been transferred to the N.E.

12z CMC at 66 hours..still running..

Test Who killed the blog?
Australia is the world's largest carbon polluter per capita Link
Wind shear is currently pretty high in the Gulf but upper level shear (over Southern Texas proper) and near Southern LA is lessening and allowing the big Texas t-storm complex to really stack up; no cloud tops blowing off on that one.  Don't have a clue as to whether these two complexes might hold together and get into the Gulf and fester.




 
My "blog" did go kaputz for about the last 15 minutes and just came up again; I was hoping it was not a Chinese cyber attack as the Typhoon approaches them for news black-out purposes.....................................
Quoting 589. WIBadgerWeather:

Quoting 589. WIBadgerWeather:



Or something like Chantal.




2004 was a year of lowrider long-trackers. And cyclogenesis: storms A-E formed in a 13-day span, from July 31 - Aug 13. Two week break, then storms F-E formed within two days.
--------------
I wonder if it was me that killed the blog.
at 126 hours the low isnt closed but still trucking..

A Chinese server attack, REALLY?

The blogs server was down for 27 minutes.

All is well

Carry on.




Quoting 597. ncstorm:

at 126 hours the low isnt closed but still trucking..


Run this loop, seems to have a pretty decent moisture envelope, and looks like a tropical storm.
My apologies for the double post; Blog is still a little slow at the moment as the servers go back up per Patrap.
Orleans Parish Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio


Special Statement
Statement as of 11:59 AM CDT on July 18, 2014
...Line of strong thunderstorms moving north affecting upper Jefferson Parish...St. Tammany Parish...Orleans Parish...southern Tangipahoa Parish...northern Tangipahoa Parish...Washington Parish...

At 1157 am CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a line of strong thunderstorms from 5 miles southeast of Hammond to New Orleans...moving north at 40 mph.

The line of strong thunderstorms will affect areas in and around... Robert...Madisonville...Lakefront Airport...Mandeville...Covington... Folsom...Abita Springs...Lacombe...Enon...Franklinton...Bush and sun

The primary threat from these storms is wind gusts 40 to 50 mph... which could down tree limbs and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe home or building until these storms have passed.

These storms could produce rainfall amounts of one to two inches in a short period of time...resulting in ponding of water around low lying roadways. Remember...do not drive your vehicle into water covered roadways. The depth may be too great to allow a safe crossing.

Be prepared to take quick action if a warning is issued. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite local media outlets for further details or updates from the National Weather Service.

1141 am CDT Fri Jul 18 2014

...Strong thunderstorm moving northeast affecting upper Jefferson Parish...Orleans Parish...St. Charles Parish...

At 1139 am CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists detected a strong thunderstorm 6 miles southwest of Kenner...or about 4 miles southeast of Destrehan...moving northeast at 35 mph.

The strong thunderstorm will affect areas in and around...Waggaman... Harahan...Kenner...New Orleans Armstrong Airport...Metairie and Lakefront Airport

The primary threat from this storm is wind gusts to near 50 mph... which could down tree limbs and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe home or building until this storm has passed.

This storm could produce rainfall amounts of one to two inches in a short period of time...resulting in ponding of water around low lying roadways. Remember...do not drive your vehicle into water covered roadways. The depth may be too great to allow a safe crossing.

Be prepared to take quick action if a warning is issued. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite local media outlets for further details or updates from the National Weather Service.



Quoting 599. Grothar:


What's your analysis of the situation out there Captain?
Quoting 598. Patrap:

Western blob in TX just sucked in a huge amount of energy from MX.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/rb-animate d.gif
Pending an update to this CIMSS chart later today, most of the lower level vort associated with the Gulf complexes (over land) is as to the complex over LA and not the Texas one:
 
607. DDR
Just got a little under 4 inches in a hour in north Trinidad,5.2 inches so far.
NC coast..

12z Navgem..potential there..





CMC




GFS Upper Level Winds Animation:

Record Report
Statement as of 04:27 PM CDT on July 17, 2014
...Record low temperature set at Baton Rouge ASOS...

a record low temperature of 62 degrees was set at Baton Rouge ASOS today. This breaks the old record of 64 set in 1967.
Quoting opal92nwf:
Severe damage and casualties as Super Typhoon Rammasun pummels southern China
The storm also brought severe infrastructure damage and flooding to the provincial capital of Haikou as it moved northwestward after landfall, CCTV said. Dozens of residents were injured by falling objects and broken windows as all transportation in the city ground to a halt. Many vehicles were submerged on flooded roads, images uploaded by residents to social media showed.

What were people doing out on the streets!? Maybe they didn't think it was going to be that bad?

The video was taken in Hong Kong, a long way from the center of the typhoon. It appears the most of the hurricane force winds were confined to a small area of the storm and didn't have much effect on Hainan. The biggest problem in China with typhoons is always flooding.
Quoting 608. Patrap:

You think that blob's independent now, having sucked in the soul of that MX Low?
Quoting DDR:
Just got a little under 4 inches in a hour in north Trinidad,5.2 inches so far.

Glad to hear it. I know you guys were getting a little desperate for rain.
666  
WGUS54 KLCH 181714  
FFWLCH  
TXC199-241-245-351-361-182015-  
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0021.140718T1714Z-140718T2015Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1214 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...  
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SOUR LAKE...LUMBERTON...  
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...  
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF EVADALE...  
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...  
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SABINE PASS...PORT NECHES...PORT  
ARTHUR...NOME...NEDERLAND...HAMSHIRE...GROVES...CE NTRAL GARDENS...  
BEAUMONT...  
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...  
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DEWEYVILLE...  
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...  
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST ORANGE...VIDOR...ORANGE...  
MAURICEVILLE...BRIDGE CITY...  
 
* UNTIL 315 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1208 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED  
THAT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH A  
FEW REPORTS OF 7 TO 8 INCHES REPORTED ACROSS BEAUMONT AND  
VIDOR TEXAS.  
 
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST  
TEXAS REGIONAL AIRPORT...PORT ACRES...ORANGEFIELD...HARTBURG AND  
FOREST HEIGHTS  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...  
NECHES RIVER...WILLOW MARSH BAYOU...TAYLOR BAYOU...SALT BAYOU...  
SPINDLETOP BAYOU...SLAYDONS CREEK...SABINE RIVER...CYPRESS CREEK...  
LITTLE CYPRESS CREEK...MILL CREEK...GUM SLOUGH...COW BAYOU...VILLAGE  
CREEK...VILLAGE SLOUGH...PINE ISLAND BAYOU...TENMILE CREEK...COTTON  
CREEK...WILLOW CREEK...BIRD ISLAND BAYOU...NORTH FORK TAYLOR BAYOU...  
SOUTH FORK TAYLOR BAYOU...MAYHAW BAYOU...GULF OF MEXICO...ELM  
BAYOU...BARNES SLOUGH...WALKER BRANCH...DIN, BAYOU...BLACK CREEK...  
LITTLE PINE ISLAND BAYOU...TIGER CREEK...CANEY CREEK...OLD RIVER  
BAYOU...COLE CREEK...ADAMS BAYOU...GRAYS BAYOU...PEVITOT GULLY...  
CONWAY BAYOU...LITTLE CYPRESS BAYOU...NICHOLS CREEK...WHITE BAY  
BRANCH...BOGGY CREEK...LITTLE ROCK CREEK...EAST TENMILE CREEK...WEST  
TENMILE CREEK...OLD RIVER...SIX-TEN SLOUGH...REEDER SLOUGH AND  
BATISTE CREEK.  
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE AS  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
TEXAS FROM GALVESTON BAY.  
 
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL  
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY  
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW  
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3054 9374 3044 9370 3034 9377 3029 9371  
3021 9372 3014 9369 3009 9373 3006 9370  
2996 9385 2983 9393 2968 9383 2967 9405  
2956 9435 2988 9436 2989 9445 3011 9445  
3011 9455 3012 9455  
 
 
 
LANDRENEAU  
90F today and even the wind is hot. It should all collapse tonight and tomorrow with big thunderstorms though, just have to wait for that to happen...

Only Southern England is on a yellow weather warning for today and most of the UK is on a yellow weather warning for rain tomorrow. Large parts of England and Wales are on an orange weather warning for tomorrow though. I haven't seen the orange weather warning out for a while. So there's likely going to be some potential flash flooding in parts of the UK.

Link
Quoting Grothar:
are you going to declare this a blob.
4 areas of potential I see, 1) the convective complex over south Texas and Louisiana, 2) the mid-level low pressure area to the east of Florida and south of Bermuda, 3) The tropical wave over the Windward Islands, and 4) The tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic.
Quoting 529. CybrTeddy:



This doesn't look like the vertical instability is "slowly rising" to me. This is what killed last year, and even if we don't get a El Nino, this year will still do the same to the Atlantic.



It's clearly obvious it's on gradual upslope trend, I think that dictates slowly rising.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
My apologies for the double post; Blog is still a little slow at the moment as the servers go back up per Patrap.

Thank goodness he has the inside scoop on such things. This has been happening with increasing frequency over the past four months or so.
Quoting 562. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



current area of interest



XX/AOI/XXL



If it can make it to the Western Caribbean, it could potentially spin up as shear is very low there at the moment.



It seems someone swtiched the Atlantic on looking at all the AOIs. Perhaps we'll even get another storm before July is finished.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Test Who killed the blog?
I did. I posted a link to intellicast.com
;)
Quoting 613. redwagon:

Quoting 608. Patrap:

You think that blob's independent now, having sucked in the soul of that MX Low?




Thats not how it werks in my estimation, these are Diurnal MCS systems and not anything Tropical.

Like African waves, a MCS has to survive and take advantage of the Sea State it arrives in to become a Tropical entity.

I don't think that is the case here at all.

These Clusters that have formed on a stationary Boundary in Southeast Texas and Louisiana are along a surface trof.








Quoting Envoirment:


If it can make it to the Western Caribbean, it could potentially spin up as shear is very low there at the moment.



It seems someone swtiched the Atlantic on looking at all the AOIs. Perhaps we'll even get another storm before July is finished.

There's an AOI/invest somewhere in the Atlantic? The Navy site has nothing about it.
Quoting 617. Grothar:
Watched the other day a smaller MCS enter GOM just about south of Beaumont, TX. Some of the energy went up the eastern seaboard. Some went into the North American Monsoon circulation.

Be interesting to see what this does.
Quoting 624. Patrap:

Well, I'm hoping that Diurnal MCS system doubles back and comes back to Centex! This guy could reload
our lakes and aquifers in three days if he would just come back and hold still....
Quoting Envoirment:


If it can make it to the Western Caribbean, it could potentially spin up as shear is very low there at the moment.



It seems someone swtiched the Atlantic on looking at all the AOIs. Perhaps we'll even get another storm before July is finished.
I think so too I think we'll have Bertha before July is out.
Matmo is looking good:





Doesn't look good for Taiwan, predicted to hit as a category 3 for the moment:

24 hr. accumulated precipitation for the Houston Metro Area.

Precip west of Corpus has decreased significantly since this morning.

This is what the radar looked like this morning (very heavy storms west of Corpus).


Current radar - (weak convection west of Corpus), but the moisture is feeding the new convection building along to boundary up towards Houston.

I hope those MCS complexes simply dissipate and die off; always makes me mad, here in the Florida Big Bend, when those Coastal LA rain events and fronts decide to move East, on a Friday, and potentially ruin my fishing plans.  The Wife/Kid are at the beach here at the moment and I am stuck at work hoping to get "my" fishing day off over the weekend............................... :) 
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
24 hr. accumulated precipitation for the Houston Metro Area.



San Antonio Tx. received 3.02" of rain earlier this morning.
Quoting 611. Patrap:

Record Report
Statement as of 04:27 PM CDT on July 17, 2014
...Record low temperature set at Baton Rouge ASOS...

a record low temperature of 62 degrees was set at Baton Rouge ASOS today. This breaks the old record of 64 set in 1967.

That's rare cold for mid-July, indeed. But then again, it's been that cold or colder during July more than a dozen times in the past, including two forays into the--b-r-r-r-r--50s.
Quoting 635. Neapolitan:


That's rare cold for mid-July, indeed. But then again, it's been that cold or colder during July more than a dozen times in the past, including two forays into the--b-r-r-r-r--50s.


Im well aware, but thanks.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I hope those MCS complexes simply dissipate and die off; always makes me mad, here in the Florida Big Bend, when those Coastal LA rain events and fronts decide to move East, on a Friday, and potentially ruin my fishing plans.  The Wife/Kid are at the beach here at the moment and I am stuck at work hoping to get "my" fishing day off over the weekend............................... :) 

Hey! Sorry about your fishing plans but we need the rain bad. Unfortunately, the whole mess isn't looking too healthy right now.
looks like its all venting out over south texas now should wane out for rest of afternoon flare again after sunset maybe


Brownsville Radar:





Quoting 635. Neapolitan:


That's rare cold for mid-July, indeed. But then again, it's been that cold or colder during July more than a dozen times in the past, including two forays into the--b-r-r-r-r--50s.


model depicted global surface temps as of 1700 july 18 2014

Wali doesn't look like a happy camper...
Quoting 638. sar2401:


Hey! Sorry about your fishing plans but we need the rain bad. Unfortunately, the whole mess isn't looking too healthy right now.

It's been raining pretty regularly up here in the Big Bend/Tallahassee area for the past few weeks (and some weekends).  One of my Co-Workers, took the day off yesterday and sent word to me yesterday of lots of Redfish and a 26" Trout............It's killing me right now.
A spot of 8" in 24 hrs.

If I'm not mistaken I remember a couple of years ago a MCS exit off the NY coast and came southeast and developed into a tropical system..I remember it because Chuck said it would never developed as it was only a MCS and nothing tropical..so if these systems exit off into the atlantic and conditions are favorable it can develop tropical entities..
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Watched the other day a smaller MCS enter GOM just about south of Beaumont, TX. Some of the energy went up the eastern seaboard. Some went into the North American Monsoon circulation.

Be interesting to see what this does.
MAYBE part going into NAMonsoonal Circ and part into GOM along TX coast.

Static image 1115 cdt July 19, 2014
image credit: Penn
State ewall sats

Link to animated WVL
Quoting 639. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Upon further review, it appears the MX Low is sucking the MCS in...... at any rate, Leon's getting laaaarrrggeerr.......
Quoting 647. Sfloridacat5:


Looks like the rains are training, likely some flooding ongoing.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 646. ncstorm:

If I'm not mistaken I remember a couple of years ago a MCS exit off the NY coast and came southeast and developed into a tropical system..I remember it because Chuck said it would never developed as it was only a MCS and nothing tropical..so if these systems exit off into the atlantic and conditions are favorable it can develop tropical entities..


Well, the pouch tracking over the last few days showed that pouch move into Tampico/North Veracruz? If this low captures the MCS.. and just sits there..
Quoting 604. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What's your analysis of the situation out there Captain?


I gave it 5 days ago. Nobody was listening? :)
Quoting 618. HurricaneAndre:

are you going to declare this a blob.


Not yet. When I see two blobs I want to make sure I have a good handle on them.
Quoting 654. Grothar:



Not yet. When I see two blobs I want to make sure I have a good handle on them.
LMAO!
Quoting 654. Grothar:



Not yet. When I see two blobs I want to make sure I have a good handle on them.


When i have good Cuban rum on a Friday night I could see three blobs instead of one. haha

Evening all. Just getting in here after a day of off and on showers - mostly light and scattered - over New Providence. At least the roads weren't too wet...

Once I skim the blog I'll see if i have any uploadable pics from today...

Quoting 646. ncstorm:

If I'm not mistaken I remember a couple of years ago a MCS exit off the NY coast and came southeast and developed into a tropical system..I remember it because Chuck said it would never developed as it was only a MCS and nothing tropical..so if these systems exit off into the atlantic and conditions are favorable it can develop tropical entities..
Same kind of thing that happened w/ Arthur, basically [though it spun down from a pre-existing low]. That kind of thing off the East coast is not that unusual... doesn't happen as frequently in the GoM, IIRC, but often enough.