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Arthur Hits Nova Scotia, Becomes Post-Tropical; Cat 4 Typhoon Neoguri Forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on July 05, 2014

Hurricane Arthur is no more. Its circulation has been absorbed by a trough of low pressure over the Canadian Maritime provinces after Arthur made landfall in Nova Scotia on Saturday morning near 10 am EDT as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. On Friday night, Arthur skirted Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, bringing a swath of 3 - 5" of rain across Southeast Massachusetts and Eastern Maine. Top winds at Nantucket were 50 mph, gusting to 59 mph, at 9:53 pm EDT.


Figure 1. Boston radar image of Arthur on Friday night July 4, 2014, as it brushed Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts.


Figure 2. Total radar-estimated rainfall for the Northeast U.S. from Arthur from the Boston radar. Arthur brought a swath of 3 - 5" of rain across Southeast Massachusetts.

Category 4 Typhoon Neoguri a threat to Japan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Neoguri has strengthened into a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds this Saturday morning, and is headed northwest towards a Tuesday rendezvous with Okinawa in Japan's Ryukyu island chain. Satellite images show a huge and well-organized system, with a prominent eye, and very intense eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. WInd shear is light, 5 - 10 knots, and Neoguri is expected to be a Category 5 storm by Sunday. Neoguri will get caught by a trough of low pressure on Monday and begin curving to the northwest. The 00Z Saturday runs of our two top track models, the GFS and European models, showed Neoguri passing about 50 - 100 miles south of Okinawa near 00 UTC Tuesday, then curving to the north and hitting the Japanese island of Kyushu, where the city of Nagasaki lies, between 10 - 22 UTC on Wednesday. Neoguri is the 7th named storm and 3rd typhoon of the 2014 Western Pacific typhoon season. The other two typhoons of 2014--Typhoon Faxai and Typhoon Tapah--were both Category 1 storms. Neoguri is named after the Korean word for raccoon dog, and was also used for a 2002 typhoon that passed near Japan, and a 2008 typhoon that hit China.


Figure 3. NASA astronaut Reid Wiseman tweeted this photo of Typhoon Neoguri from the International Space Station on July 4, 2014. At the time, Neoguri was a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds.

Links
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Jeff Masters
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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. JRRP
mmmmm




Post-Tropicl Cyclone Arthur's Track:



24 hr surface map
Quoting 501. JRRP:

mmmmm





I noticed the ensembles were on to that too. The wave looks interesting.



I'm kidding. Interesting to find ten hours of the Jaws theme song. I see they dropped the low off the surface maps, but convection is certainly more widespread than yesterday. Something to look at, but I wouldn't get your hopes up.

Surface trough sitting over w coast of FL. Sticky here last couple days!




1200 GFS shows a similar track as Arthur for area off se coast, but does nothing with it. Shoves it ots in less than 36 hrs.



That's a nice big wave off Africa. Looks to have taken a bite out of the SAL that's been so dense.

big ?

The big picture Link GOES NOAA
Quoting rod2635:


Hailstorms in Spain, a number of recent rather severe thunderstorm outbreaks in Germany, Netherlands, France, not to mention the massive ice storm in Slovenia (do I have the county correct) and floods in central Europe. Are we just getting better reports now from overseas or are these exceptional events part of what we are seeing in North America?


The trough ridge patterns in the middle and upper levels have been in an unusual configuration since early 2013 and weather patterns have been both anomalous and unusually persistent. Don't know how this will evolve.

Meteosat 9
Quoting 493. jpsb:



I seriously doubt that, TC run on heat, Neoguri is a huge powerful TC so she is burning up a lot of heat (energy) the effect of which will be cooler ocean temps in her wake. I am wondering if the albedo of the massively large Antarctic sea ice extent might be cooling the Southern Ocean and there by diluting the warmth of the waters off Peru. Antarctic sea ice has been setting records every year for 3 or 4 years now, something is going on down south.



Check out the slope of the data post 2010. Only 35 years of data but the increase in sea ice is impressive.



Like it's been stated many times, the "something going on down there" is for many different reasons:

"Here are some of the leading hypotheses currently being explored through a combination of satellite remote sensing, fieldwork in Antarctica and numerical model simulations %u2013 to help explain the increasing trend in overall Antarctic sea ice coverage:

Increased westerly winds around the Southern Ocean, linked to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation related to ozone depletion, will see greater northward movement of sea ice, and hence extent, of Antarctic sea ice.

Increased precipitation, in the form of either rain or snow, will increase the density stratification between the upper and middle layers of the Southern Ocean. This might reduce the oceanic heat transfer from relatively warm waters at below the surface layer, and therefore enhancing conditions at the surface for sea ice.

Similarly, a freshening of the surface layers from this precipitation would also increase the local freezing point of sea ice formation.

Another potential source of cooling and freshening in the upper ocean around Antarctica is increased melting of Antarctic continental ice, through ocean/ice shelf interaction and iceberg decay.

The observed changes in sea ice extent could be influenced by a combination of all these factors and still fall within the bounds of natural variability."

Even with those gains in Anarctic Sea Ice, when taken it the context of the global trends, we are losing 1000 GT of ice per year.



Also, this website lets you play with insulation based on latitude and time of year Link. There isn't much going on down there right now mainly due to the time of year and angle.

So...yeah the antarctic is kinda behaving exactly as it should given a warming planet.


Quoting barbamz:
Good afternoon/day from Germany which is in crosshairs of heavy thunderstorms developing in France right now. Details in the discussion of Estofex.
Current temps in my backyard in Mainz: 31C/88F.

Looks like whoever decided to run the Tour de France in Yorkshire today deserves a pat on the back for weather selection. :)
okay last one
Quoting 504. Climate175:

I noticed the ensembles were on to that too. The wave looks interesting.
Well now what do we have here, a potential wild card or dark horse as they say in sports?
Quoting 508. georgevandenberghe:



The trough ridge patterns in the middle and upper levels have been in an unusual configuration since early 2013 and weather patterns have been both anomalous and unusually persistent. Don't know how this will evolve.


Jennifer Frances explains it well on her YT vids.

Quoting 513. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Well now what do we have here, a potential wild card or dark horse as they say in sports?
Who knows, are you just seeing this now?
Look at that eye.

Quoting 499. rod2635:



Hailstorms in Spain, a number of recent rather severe thunderstorm outbreaks in Germany, Netherlands, France, not to mention the massive ice storm in Slovenia (do I have the county correct) and floods in central Europe. Are we just getting better reports now from overseas or are these exceptional events part of what we are seeing in North America?


Well, "in former times" you probably very rarely would have been informed of some severe weather in European countries, and even one country in Europe would barely have noticed what was going on in another in their neighbourhood (weatherwise). So it's mostly due to the waayyy better tools of real time observation and communication which can be used by lay people like us as well. - But moreover it really seems that freak weather or unusual weather patterns happen more often than in earlier times as far as memories go.
Quoting 515. Climate175:

Who knows, are you just seeing this now?
I noticed it this morning. Conditions aren't that bad. Wind shear is about 5-20 knots in the area. It has to contend with SAL and climo will argue against development. SST are definitely warm enough to support development. I guess we'll have to see how it looks in a couple of days, persistence is the key.



519. JRRP
Quoting Climate175:
I noticed the ensembles were on to that too. The wave looks interesting.

yeah but there is one problem...
Quoting 516. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Look at that eye.




That's really terrifying. In German we've got the decent word "furchteinflößend" which means: "fearinfusing".
522. JRRP
.
Greetings.

Just getting a chance to what's in store, as I've been AWOL for a week .

Nice wave at 25W, but plenty dry air in front of that.
SAL/Dust has been dread past couple weeks here, and NO RAIN.
Water restrictions in effect Nationwide, due to particularly low June rainfall (our wet-season is June-Dec).
I don't remember a July starting off this dry, ever.

Not looking good…..
Quoting 519. JRRP:


yeah but there is one problem...

Quoting 516. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Look at that eye.




It's surprisingly compact for being so intense.
526. JRRP
Quoting Climate175:

lol
527. flsky
Sorry to hear about your surgeries. Hopefully a fast recovery. Do they know what's causing this. Former basketball player??

Quoting 477. Patrap:

thanx forecaster1

the physical therapy is tough but the only way to get full range of motion.

but i am close to the VA here, only like 8 minutes away.
China flooding forms seven-metre-deep lake in Hunan province
BBC video report, 8 hours ago
Heavy rainfall in parts of China has formed a lake of more than 150 sq km (58 sq miles).
The flooding in Hunan province is up to seven metres (23ft) deep in some areas.
Torrential rain across central and southern China has submerged cars, houses and entire roads, leaving some people stranded.
Emily Thomas reports.


529. jpsb
Quoting 510. Naga5000:



Like it's been stated many times, the "something going on down there" is for many different reasons:




Well the record sea ice extent might be because of some combination of all those reasons you've mentioned or maybe it's just getting colder down there?

Whatever

I was just wondering if the albedo effect of all that sea ice, more sea ice then we've ever seen in the Southern Ocean (at this time of year) might be putting a chill on that was to be a super El Nino comparable (but advertised as even stronger) to the great 98 El Nino. I think adding a Greenland or two of sea ice might have some consequences.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
This is right up Gro's alley!

Quoting 529. jpsb:



Well the record sea ice extent might be because of some combination of all those reasons you've mentioned or maybe it's just getting colder down there?

Whatever

I was just wondering if the albedo effect of all that sea ice, more sea ice then we've ever seen in the Southern Ocean (at this time of year) might be putting a chill on that was to be a super El Nino comparable (but advertised as even stronger) to the great 98 El Nino. I think adding a Greenland or two of sea ice might have some consequences.


I provided a link to a solar insulation calculator. Your argument is incorrect. Whatever indeed.
Quoting 455. Neapolitan:



I'm truly sorry if I hurt anyone's tender feelings But decades of thoughtful instruction, mountains of data, tens of thousands of peer-reviewed papers, hundreds of billions of dollars in destroyed property, millions of lost lives, and climatic disruption on a scale man has never before witnessed don't appear to have gotten through. You have a better idea? We're all ears...
Quoting 472. Naga5000:



Convert? Conspiracy theorists are lost causes. They believe nonsense that cannot be swayed by logic, facts, or empirical evidence. It's not insulting to call out that sort of misaligned fanatical belief in something that doesn't exist, in fact it's the opposite. It is insulting to scientists and researchers that get trashed with accusations of data manipulation, academic misconduct, and engaging in professional deceit in the name of some grand unprovable conspiracy, or because "you" don't understand basic math and physics. Insulting indeed.


Nice responses. I have already offered Nea to come see the way I live (because he lives in Naples as do I) and I offer you the same Naga. A better idea??? how about LEAD BY EXAMPLE!! Math and physics will get you no where when insults are combined. Earths physical harmony is at stake so why not start with your own physical and verbal actions and let that message be absorbed by those around you. :)




534. vis0

Quoting 501. JRRP:

mmmmm
     


     click to enlarge (same KBs) shrunk dimensions to lower crashes.

Lets play MAKE BELIEVE.

Hello King Arthur
K. Arthur: "Bully", (coincidence),
Hello Trolly
Trolly: (Ding Ding).

If this LØNG forecast model took the "L" that low near the Equator most would say very little Coriolis & too low to spin up.
Now  i cannot/will NOT explain as i promised last year not to mention my invention(s) on Dr. Masters blog (only on my or another blog(s))
 IF this imaginary "L" curves northward before passing the Longitude line of Jamaica while still south of Hispňola i'd be very worried EVEN if it where not very strong at THAT point. If it passes Jamaica into GoMx and then has a soft block to its NW & is forced to turn NNE i'd be worried.

TROLLY: Ding Ding Dang!?

Well trolly understand its a MODEL prediction, and they tend to be incorrect the further the prediction date is from the present date. So keep tuned to NOAA, weatherunderground, enjoy reading those that "keep there teeth sparkling with icyhot" and from time to time refresh your hurricane/TS awareness with Patrap's guide on his blog or Wxu's Extreme Weather Preparedness. As to what are Coriolis,GoMx & those other crazy words, here read WxU's weather glossary (would've luv to link but search/site map lacks that link)

TROLLY:Ding Ding ~dinggggg~.

Yes we all send Patrap best of wishes on his op & that Sar or was it Gro, label well his jellies & preserves. ♫
♫ ....----------------...........dang this sweater itches