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Atlantic Tropical Depression #2 Weakens to TROF as it Heads for Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:17 PM GMT on July 23, 2014

(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

Former Tropical Depression #2 is estimated to be near 14.1N / 56.2W or about 300NM east of the CARIB, and is heading westward (290ᵒ) at 17Kts. Imagery loops along with a few surface OBS any clearly indicate TD #2 opened-up into an inverted TROF early this AM; and one with a minimum of significant convection.


Fig 1: The above VIS (left) and Enhanced IR (right) image of former TD #2 depicts an extremely weak and poorly organized area of convection.

Although the decrease in convection was partially due to typical diurnal variation, the disturbance encountered stronger wind shear and drier air that ultimately destroyed the already borderline circulation. In addition, the disturbance will be encountering even stronger wind shear over the next 48 hours, and the chances of re-development are NIL.


Fig 2: TD-2 ran into increasing shear overnight, and this appears to be the primary reason TD-2 is no longer…

Anything up Elsewhere in the Atlantic?


Fig 3: The precipitable water graphic shows an increase in moisture associated with the ITCZ, though drying due to the intrusion of the SAL is also shown over the Cape Verdes ahead of the next, albeit somewhat weaker wave now emerging off the African coast.


Fig 4: This unique ‘convective’ image for northern Africa (along with related loop imagery and 850mb Vorticity analysis – not shown) helps identify the next set of upstream tropical waves over central and western Africa.

The tropical wave analysis using the above Convective imagery indicates a moderately strong wave with some mid-level turning over west central Africa (2nd from the coast) and a much stronger wave developing over east central Africa (far right in above image) with significant low to mid-level rotation evident. Both of theses waves will be moving over the Atlantic next week. However, in the meantime, no cyclone formation is currently expected for the next 6 or more days.

Typhoon MATMO over mainland China

MATMO crossed Taiwan yesterday with numerous wind reports supporting CAT 2 intensity at landfall. While crossing Taiwan, it weakened to a CAT 1, with additional weakening due to friction affects and increasing wind shear as it crossed the Taiwan Strait. The storm made it’s 2nd landfall along the SE coast of China between 06Z and 07Z today. The system is now moving northward, and will transition to a non-tropical Low as it moves more rapidly N/NE during the next 2 days – with heavy rainfall it’s primary threat.


Fig 6: MATMO is seen ‘unwinding’ rapidly in the above IR image, with most of the significant convection far removed from the center of the cyclone.


Fig 7: The latest color enhanced IR image of MATMO indicates very strong convection remains along the coast and over the open waters well south of the storm center.

Winds are likely still gusting to tropical storm intensity over land, while winds are likely near CAT 1 intensity in the stronger convective bands over the open water.

Although there are 3 other ‘Invests’ over the West Pacific – none of these are expected to develop into cyclones during the next 48 hours.

The next update will be coming from Dr. Jeff Masters on Thursday.

For those interested , I will once again be providing my own Weather Updates starting the week of AUG 18 at Steve Gregory

Steve Gregory


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Gregory!
Thank you Steve....Great post as usual
Snuck this one in on us....
The plane crash in Taiwan occurred in the southern convection of the typhoon, an ATR-72 went down.
Thank You Dr.  I would add to your "Nil" factors the fact that the TD2 remnants are really booking way too fast for tropical development in spite of some convective activity.  It's caught up in fast moving trade winds and is not slowing down anytime soon as it goes through the Antilles.  However,the more rain it can generate, the better for the drought conditions so I hope they end up a nice vigorous wave that brings them several inches.
Steve, thanks for the updates this past week.
Great to see you back on WU.

Hmmm, ya know if TD 2 is as bad as it gets when Jeff is away, as a Gulf coast resident I might be willing to chip in and pay to extend his vacation to November... ;)
Thank you for the update Dr. Masters. Taiwan really tore Matmo up. It must be like passing over Hispanola.
well the 12z Navgem is still interesting..doesnt want to say bye to TD 2..regenerates after crossing islands







TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Depression Two, located a few hundred miles east of
the Lesser Antilles. The remnants of the depression will continue
westward, bringing a few squalls to these islands today and
tomorrow.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila
10. SLU
Quoting 4. MahFL:

The plane crash in Taiwan occurred in the southern convection of the typhoon, an ATR-72 went down.


I flew in that same type of aircraft through a TWave blob last year and that was a scary and horrific flight so why would they fly such a light aircraft through a typhoon?????
and some of the 12z GFS members with the same as the 12z Navgem




Thanks Dr. Gregory for the new blog!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Depression Two, located a few hundred miles east of
the Lesser Antilles. The remnants of the depression will continue
westward, bringing a few squalls to these islands today and
tomorrow.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Didn't they kill T.D.2 at 11:00am this morning.
I thought that was going to be the last advisory?
T.D.2 is taking a beating (kick um when their down).;
There is the evidence of some low level turning south of Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico. This is still upper level in nature, but its got a good 850mb vorticity signature with it, so low level turning is potentially there for something to spin up in the central GOM. Wind shear over the disturbance is a low 5-10 knots, however sinking air is a potential con as an upper level low promotes dry sinking air over its center. Still some time, if it can get over the Central GOM.
Quoting 13. Sfloridacat5:



Didn't they kill T.D.2 at 11:00am this morning.
I thought that was going to be the last advisory?
T.D.2 is taking a beating (kick um when their down).;

They did...this is the Tropical Weather Outlook.
Thanks for the Blog !


Thanks Dr Gregory! You've done a very fine job filling in. I think everyone really appreciates the illustrative images you've tossed in. Good work. Look forward to more posts in the future.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad low located about 1400 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development and this system is expected to
become a tropical depression during the next couple of days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a surface trough
located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of
Hawaii. Further development of this system is possible during
the next few days while it moves westward into the central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days. Some development of
this system is expected over the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

4. Another area of low pressure could form during the next couple
of days several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula. Some gradual development of this system
is possible by the weekend while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake

There are 3 planes in the Air right now, one over the Bahamas, one in the GOM and one on Ex-TD2.
Thanks for the EUMET Convective Image. Fascinating to see the waves lined up. Curiosity question for anyone-are there waves to the East of the waves shown here over West and Central Africa. I think the waves go all around the ITCZ. I guess things get interesting when these Easterly waves exit the African continent.
Afternoon all.

Thanks Dr. Gregory, for making TD02 an enjoyable experience.... :o)

I thought I saw on the previous blog that HHers are still planning to fly this thing....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon all.

Thanks Dr. Gregory, for making TD02 an enjoyable experience.... :o)

I thought I saw on the previous blog that HHers are still planning to fly this thing....

>they are in it now
Just sit back and wait.
Quoting 21. BahaHurican:

Afternoon all.

Thanks Dr. Gregory, for making TD02 an enjoyable experience.... :o)

I thought I saw on the previous blog that HHers are still planning to fly this thing....


As we speak it is inside(Sic) the disturbance.
Quoting 23. Sfloridacat5:
Just sit back and wait.


You almost get the feeling all hell will break loose in August.

But will the set up exist for these waves to grow? Hopefully both SAL and shearing would have diminished.
Quoting 4. MahFL:

The plane crash in Taiwan occurred in the southern convection of the typhoon, an ATR-72 went down.
Seems they were flying into the storm rather than away from it. [sigh] I don't see why people don't understand "better late than dead"....
Quoting 22. will40:

Thanks ...
Thanks!!.So much for that cat 4 going to n.c.
Heavy storms will be moving th3ough later.It feels very soupy outside.
I guess they get so many tropical systems in the WPac that people take them for granted. Around here American Airlines, which flies turboprops similar to [but smaller] the crashed plane would cancel their 2 p.m. flight out of FLL through most of August to avoid the afternoon storms.... and Bahamasair just doesn't fly in that time segment. I can't imagine what motivating force would make a pilot think it was okay to fly into a cat 2 typhoon....
That little island where the plane crashed is visible in the imagery.... notice the worst of Matmo's precip is just clearing out of that location...



32. JRRP
Quoting 29. washingtonian115:

Thanks!!.So much for that cat 4 going to n.c.
Heavy storms will be moving th3ough later.It feels very soupy outside.


dang wash..you continue this childish behavior to another blog??..maybe want to go watch the trees turn another color and let this go?

..LOL..but dont let anyone call you a troll though because you only spitting truth..



Thank you Dr. Gregory, your explanations are top notch.
Meanwhile in California...

(So apparently my pic of fried egg on a sidewalk doesn't work, but be assured it was very poignant.)

Looks like some rain may be starting for a few locations in the Lessers....

Quoting BahaHurican:
I guess they get so many tropical systems in the WPac that people take them for granted. Around here American Airlines, which flies turboprops similar to [but smaller] the crashed plane would cancel their 2 p.m. flight out of FLL through most of August to avoid the afternoon storms.... and Bahamasair just doesn't fly in that time segment. I can't imagine what motivating force would make a pilot think it was okay to fly into a cat 2 typhoon....


Just a little earlier TWC showed the explosive convection over the area at the time of the crash. This was some of the strongest convection assocated with the storm even though it was well removed from the center.
i think xTD2 is going to surprise us.
Why didn't anyone tell me there was a new blog
Lol
Anyway
The trees are doing fine and dandy!!.Yes it is very interesting studying their behavior.Trees are a very good indicator of nature!.I hope you get your storm I really do.But chasing riceeder or however you spell his name with a trash gif wasn't trolling?.Okay whatever.
I think TD2 remnants will make a comeback north of Cuba and just east of the Bahamas and then threaten the East Coast. Look at the warm SSTs in the area of the Bahamas, 30-32C and a large upper level anticyclone. I wonder if anyone has the forecasts for the next five days over the Bahamas and whether or not that upper level anticyclone stays? Does anyone have an idea?
Quoting 39. wunderkidcayman:

Why didn't anyone tell me there was a new blog
Lol
Anyway
R u watching the HHer data?
Recon passed on the extreme N and NW sector of system now flying SE likely to do a penetration into the blob

Either way thing don't look bad for a dead TD to be honest

Well to what the models show
It would remind me so much of TS Bonnie of 2004
NAM brings ex-T.D.2 north of the Islands in 54 hours and continues it though the Bahamas towards Florida as a rain blob.

54 hours


84 hours
There is some sort of surface trough over or just south of Louisiana and Houma, LA area. Weakening convection likely due to the diurnal minimum and lack of a true surface circulation. Also a weak area of shear over the convection currently. Likely a result of sinking air in the center of the upper level low.
I see we have invest 91E AND INVEST 92E!!
Quoting 42. BahaHurican:

R u watching the HHer data?

Oh yeah closely
The best Blob in the Atlantic at the moment, which is not tropical in nature, is the trof of low pressure off the Eastern US coast:
 
Quoting 41. TheDawnAwakening:

I think TD2 remnants will make a comeback north of Cuba and just east of the Bahamas and then threaten the East Coast. Look at the warm SSTs in the area of the Bahamas, 30-32C and a large upper level anticyclone. I wonder if anyone has the forecasts for the next five days over the Bahamas and whether or not that upper level anticyclone stays? Does anyone have an idea?
if this had held together a bit better I would have said possible. Right now I say unlikely. But HHers are there, so we'll have a better idea of the structure [such as it is] later.
Well guys looks like recon found us a LLC or just passed N of it
14.1N 57.4W

Convection continues to increase and spreading
Quoting 48. weathermanwannabe:

The best Blob in the Atlantic at the moment, which is not tropical in nature, is the trof of low pressure off the Eastern US coast:
 
Most of the decent blobs so far this season have been in that area.... lol ...
Quoting 49. BahaHurican:

if this had held together a bit better I would have said possible. Right now I say unlikely. But HHers are there, so we'll have a better idea of the structure [such as it is] later.


Yeah I just think anything has a chance at redevelopment given the right circumstances.
Quoting TimSoCal:
Meanwhile in California...

(So apparently my pic of fried egg on a sidewalk doesn't work, but be assured it was very poignant.)



You've got me beat by 10 degrees during the day, and I've got you beat by 10 degrees at night.

7 Day for Fort Myers Fl.

SOMETIMES trof of low pressure tune into tropical storms and hurricanes
Quoting 50. wunderkidcayman:

Well guys looks like recon found us a LLC or just passed N of it
14.1N 57.4W

Convection continues to increase and spreading


WKC, you're an eternal optimist against all odds. Good attitude to have in this life.
Quoting 50. wunderkidcayman:

Well guys looks like recon found us a LLC or just passed N of it
14.1N 57.4W

Convection continues to increase and spreading

Awaiting recon to fly in the strongest part of the blob
And to make another pass on S and SW sectors
Satellite imagery suggests that an upper level low is no longer present in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is indicative of a potential stretching out of the low as seen on CIMSS wind shear graphic with wind flow as well as weakening shear in the vicinity of the low as well as 200mb vorticity seen stretching across the western GOM. However 850mb vorticity is strengthening in the vicinity of the surface trough seen through the buoy reports along the Louisiana coastline with westerly winds present. However convection is weak currently, which will hinder development in the near future.
Quoting 56. wunderkidcayman:


Awaiting recon to fly in the strongest part of the blob
And to make another pass on S and SW sectors


Are they still finding a tropical depression present? Closed surface circulation?
59. JRRP
Quoting LemieT:


WKC, you're an eternal optimist against all odds. Good attitude to have in this life.

lol
Quoting 54. hurricanes2018:

SOMETIMES trof of low pressure tune into tropical storms and hurricanes

Td 2 is now done I agree with dr.Gregory. Looks like it has lost the closed circulation and to close again it will need to go over the Hispanola montain likely to hit it even harder.
Quoting 58. TheDawnAwakening:



Are they still finding a tropical depression present? Closed surface circulation?

I've not seen any west winds reported, so that would mean no closed circulation, which is what we expected. Having said that, the system is actually in better shape now than 6 hours ago. Stronger 850mb vorticity, better convergence/divergence, and of course the flare-up of convection. It's only temporary though, as it moves into drier air and higher shear shortly it will fall apart even more.
Quoting 9. TropicalAnalystwx13:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Depression Two, located a few hundred miles east of
the Lesser Antilles. The remnants of the depression will continue
westward, bringing a few squalls to these islands today and
tomorrow.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Avila killed it. I think its premature. But he is the best in the lineup, so, we have to accept it and move on.
oh I get it..you mad because I called you trash..

oh wait but I didnt? but I did call you out about stating untruths that bloggers were calling for a Cat5..

girl please..bye!! LOL
Quoting 62. eyewallblues:



Avila killed it. I think its premature. But he is the best in the lineup, so, we have to accept it and move on.


Drakeon will be happy..LOL
Quoting 36. BahaHurican:

Looks like some rain may be starting for a few locations in the Lessers....


This is good news it's becoming more beneficial than detrimental. Just what the Dr. ordered for the islands.
Quoting 55. LemieT:



WKC, you're an eternal optimist against all odds. Good attitude to have in this life.

No not really I'm just being real

Yes I'm an optimist against all odds in some things

I personally died when I was a baby not long after I was born with the odds highly not in my favour well I came back and bouncing like never before and I got shot in the rear near the spine just below the tailbone while on tour green on blue incident and I survived and now sitting more straight

So yeah on some things I am
But more of a realist
So far I've only seen SE, E, and NE winds from the aircraft.
No westerly wind as of yet from what I've been looking at.
I never said you called me trash :).You were chasing riceeder or however you call his name around with a trash gif.All of a sudden I do it it's trolling.Oh and I hope you know people get paid to look at and study trees.If you want to continue this go to WU mail.

I wil not comtinue any further on the main blog.
lol.I offered WU mail.Oh well.You do the same thing in the climate blogs.
Okay I'm finished.
Quoting 62. eyewallblues:



Avila killed it. I think its premature. But he is the best in the lineup, so, we have to accept it and move on.
This has been pretty much a pre-scheduled die-off, based on the original forecast....
Quoting 66. wunderkidcayman:


No not really I'm just being real

Yes I'm an optimist against all odds in some things

I personally died when I was a baby not long after I was born with the odds highly not in my favour well I came back and bouncing like never before and I got shot in the rear near the spine just below the tailbone while on tour green on blue incident and I survived and now sitting more straight

So yeah on some things I am
But more of a realist


Wow, ok. Actually, as much as some people might laugh, I actually like to read your comments. I silently hold out hope myself until all is completely gone, although I tend not to voice mine ;-). That said, I think at least for now that exTD2 is probably just a rainmaker from here. On our radar there's no remaining evidence of a surface circulation. Will definitely enjoy the rain though. I hope this season has something in the tank and doesn't repeat last year.
your whole reasoning in justifying what you are doing is wack..

I'm through and wont disrupt this blog with childish back and forth..If I want to play with kids, I will head to the daycare up the street from me..you be easy..

anyhoo..
563

WTNT80 EGRR 231800



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.07.2014



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 54.3W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022014



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 23.07.2014 13.5N 54.3W WEAK

00UTC 24.07.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


I think if it can develop some of that convection more on the SW sector it would assist in closing off the open bit on the SW side
http://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPro/BMS_RadarDi splayer.php?TypeOfDisplay=Flash&RadarFolder=Dir_40 0KM&BMS=1406142457
Quoting 35. TimSoCal:

Meanwhile in California...

(So apparently my pic of fried egg on a sidewalk doesn't work, but be assured it was very poignant.)




So glad I don't live in the Valley anymore....
nice blob!!
I think Recon gave up.
Quoting 67. Sfloridacat5:

So far I've only seen SE, E, and NE winds from the aircraft.
No westerly wind as of yet from what I've been looking at.

Which is exactly what'd you expect to see given the fast motion of this wave. Moving at 25 mph makes it very hard to maintain westerly winds.

Throw in dry air and wind shear, and the remnants of TD2 aren't a concern anymore.
Quoting 72. wunderkidcayman:

I think if it can develop some of that convection more on the SW sector it would assist in closing off the open bit on the SW side
This still looks very good.

Ok so recon is like ok I'm bored this is not a Cat 5 I'm going home so it's doing a rapid up in altitude and SW exit

Where is this plane headed. The GOM plane seems to have aborted his run.
Quoting 35. TimSoCal:

Meanwhile in California...

(So apparently my pic of fried egg on a sidewalk doesn't work, but be assured it was very poignant.)



Meanwhile in Texas...

Where did the nice temperatures go?
Quoting 65. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This is good news it's becoming more beneficial than detrimental. Just what the Dr. ordered for the islands.
Just wish it had held together longer so the track would have meant it was drifting west through the upper end of the chain and across PR....

Developing circulation in the GOM just south of Houma, LA. WSW winds, westerly winds, northerly winds found, just not a closed surface low yet, and lack of any deep convection means this is just beginning to develop.
The Central Lesser Antilles will get the jackpot of rain but hopefully from St Barts thru PR get a few showers.Below is an excerpt of San Juan NWS discussion.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
WAVE BUT WILL REMAIN A STRONG WAVE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. 12Z GFS
MAINTAINS 40 KNOT WINDS AT 4 KFT ONLY 60 NM SOUTH OF ST. CROIX AND
SOUTH PR COAST ON THU/18Z WHICH MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE THOUGH
GFS MOVES IT ALONG AT 20 KT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THU MORNING
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MAINTAINING 2.4 INCHES WHILE IT DOES. GRIDS
WERE UPGRADED FOR THIS WHICH APPEARS LIKELY AS IT WILL NOT
EFFECTIVELY LEAVE THE ITCZ DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WAVE
IS STILL NOT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION ESPECIALLY AS
IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE LOW LEVEL CARIBBEAN JET LATE THU...
WHICH WILL ABSORB THE WAVE. FLOODING MAY NOT BE A SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING SO QUICKLY BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
INTENSE THE SHOWERS BECOME.


Pressures are still high near 30.00in on the coast of LA, the center of the developing disturbance is roughly 50-100 miles southwest of Houma, LA.
Quoting 83. PedleyCA:


Where is this plane headed. The GOM plane seems to have aborted his run.
Prolly down to St Croix...
With a new series of Tropical Waves about to move off the African Coast, looks like the first two weeks of August could be pretty busy in the Atlantic Basin.
Where is this plane headed IN the GOM
Quoting 83. PedleyCA:


Where is this plane headed. The GOM plane seems to have aborted his run.

green color winds 35 mph
nice blog those waves do look robust over africa
The shear in the caribbean is very el nino like.Ironically that's where the deepest warmest waters are.
Quoting 90. HurriHistory:

With a new series of Tropical Waves about to move off the African Coast, looks like the first two weeks of August could be pretty busy in the Atlantic Basin.


Vary unlikely that it will be vary busy the 1st 2 weeks of August its bone dry out there if any thing fourms it will be closer two home the 1st two weeks of augs
Quoting 95. Tazmanian:



Vary unlikely that it will be vary busy the 1st 2 weeks of August its bone dry out there if any thing fourms it will be closer two home the 1st two weeks of augs


Something is developing southwest of Houma, LA.
Quoting 94. washingtonian115:

The shear in the caribbean is very el nino like.Ironically that's where the deepest warmest waters are.

The highest TCHP is always in the western caribbean, not matter what year or ENSO pattern.
Quoting 94. washingtonian115:

The shear in the caribbean is very el nino like.Ironically that's where the deepest warmest waters are.
odd considering we don't have an el nino and won't be getting one anytime soon....




I wish you would just make up your mind already...
Quoting 91. hurricanes2018:

Where is this plane headed IN the GOM


Stopped reporting early in the mission, think it aborted.
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Pressures are still high near 30.00in on the coast of LA, the center of the developing disturbance is roughly 50-100 miles southwest of Houma, LA.


Defnitely seems to be a weak ciculation, but mostly over land.
That circulation needs to drop down to the south a few hundred miles (which isn't forecast to happen).
Most likely we'll see a low slide along the coast and keep the rain machine going for the coastal regions.
Quoting 91. hurricanes2018:

Where is this plane headed IN the GOM
To see the sea from above
Quoting 95. Tazmanian:


Vary unlikely that it will be vary busy the 1st 2 weeks of August its bone dry out there if any thing fourms it will be closer two home the 1st two weeks of augs


Anyone have any thoughts on what looks like a stalled out boundary off the southeast coast?
Quoting PedleyCA:


Stopped reporting early in the mission, think it aborted.


Today's mission was flown in one of the weakest systems I've ever seen a plane invesigate.
They must have wanted to take a vacation down in the Caribbean or they were just re-locating aircraft (or a pilot needed some flight hours).
u start to see the severe weather in the northeast!!
That circular mess of convection that is just exiting to the North off Eastern Cuba has the superficial appearance of some rotation and is headed into a former nursery for tropical systems. Could it be...?
Nino 3.4 is -.2 below avg. This means we are nearing La nina -.5. The season will be very active.... watch out
Quoting 51. BahaHurican:

Most of the decent blobs so far this season have been in that area.... lol ...


This is why I had to give this a very slim, outside chance of an invest the other day. 02L did form & then died near SA as expected though...

GEOS-5 had been showing 02L remnants making it all the way up here toward FL all along but it was hard to buy. I like the new solution.. It hits PR & Hispaniola as a ferocious inverted trough & then breaks up a bit.

Note the broad circulation over the Louisiana coastal area.
Quoting 95. Tazmanian:



Vary unlikely that it will be vary busy the 1st 2 weeks of August its bone dry out there if any thing fourms it will be closer two home the 1st two weeks of augs


Nino 3.4 is now -.2 below avg.... so you still think the season is done??? Gulf of Guyana is also very cool which will energize the african east waves!!
Quoting 106. CaneFreeCR:

That circular mess of convection that is just exiting to the North off Eastern Cuba has the superficial appearance of some rotation and is headed into a former nursery for tropical systems. Could it be...?


Not at least anything imminent, looks to be headed towards SE FL.
Quoting 94. washingtonian115:

The shear in the caribbean is very el nino like.Ironically that's where the deepest warmest waters are.


last year we had shear in the caribbean and every where else
Quoting 97. EpsilonWeather:


The highest TCHP is always in the western caribbean, not matter what year or ENSO pattern.
I mentioned the enso because in el nino years like 2009 shear shuts down the caribbean for most of the time.Shear has been very high in the regioned and Ironically it's where the deepest warmest waters are.I didn't say the highest values are out somewhere else in the Atlantic.
Quoting 98. wunderweatherman123:
The ocean may not say el nino but the atmosphere does.
odd considering we don't have an el nino and won't be getting one anytime soon....
The atmosphere is el nino like.
Quoting 110. Sfloridacat5:

Note the broad circulation over the Louisiana coastal area.



I see it to..
you can have west winds and no depression. just last yr was a good example when the leewards were reporting west wind nhc waited to they found a definite center. in the way past west winds down there was an automatic qualifier for td status
Quoting 110. Sfloridacat5:

Note the broad circulation over the Louisiana coastal area.



I thought I saw something more imminent happening over the coastal waters southwest of Houma, LA, but there is no convection currently, so its not strengthening, it is just spinning as an area of leftover 850mb vorticity from the dying upper level low.
Quoting 114. Grothar:


Hi Grothar-

What do you think are the chances for regeneration?
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1203 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014

Aviation...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside any localized
convective impacts. Much of the convection should abate by 01z and
redevelop generally after 16z Thursday. 24/rr

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 422 am CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2014/

Synopsis...
latest upper air analysis showed a cyclonic circulation over
southeast Louisiana and a large anticyclonic circulation over
Colorado. 500 mb temperatures are -8c across the east half of the forecast
area...a relative cool pocket around and east of the upper level low.
GFS and Euro initialized a vorticity maximum over southeast Louisiana and
southern Mississippi. Latest surface analysis revealed a very weak
pressure gradient from south Texas to South Carolina with a 2mb
difference. Precipitable water values on a planer view at 12z
showed the wrap around moisture west edge has made it to Lafayette
with 1.9 inches at Slidell and 1.5 inches at Lake Charles. 18

Discussion...
with a relaxed pressure gradient...a cool 500 mb temperature aloft and
elevated precipitable water values in place...convection should develop around sea
breeze boundaries and in land. The upper level low will shift west
through today and the dry air entrainment to the low and middle layer
northerly flow are expected to shift west. Therefore...expected
scattered storms across the area today and a few strong across
east central Louisiana west of I-55 and southwest Mississippi.
Gusty winds from strong thunderstorms will be the main threat
today. The upper level low will continue to shift west to
southwest tonight and Thursday. The ridge axis from the upper
level high out west will provide some drying in the middle layers
across the forecast. Low level moisture will remain elevated but
precipitable water values will slowly decrease from 1.8 inches Thursday to 1.5 to
1.6 inches Friday and Saturday. In addition...500 mb temperatures will rise
to -6c by then. Some suppressive factors will curtail convection a
bit Friday through Sunday. However...intense surface heating and
low level moisture can still yield isolated convection late in the
day. A few areas may reach the middle 90s for highs Friday through Sunday.

Next week models still point to an active jet pattern and an upper
trough that will dig across the the eastern part of the country
Sunday into Monday. This will result in a cold front being pushed
into the lower Mississippi Valley and north half of forecast area
Tuesday through Wednesday. Rain chances will increase along and
south of the front Monday and Tuesday. 18

Quoting 90. HurriHistory:

With a new series of Tropical Waves about to move off the African Coast, looks like the first two weeks of August could be pretty busy in the Atlantic Basin.


You could be right
Quoting 95. Tazmanian:



Vary unlikely that it will be vary busy the 1st 2 weeks of August its bone dry out there if any thing fourms it will be closer two home the 1st two weeks of augs

You are correct. Contrary to what some think, the waves over Africa and the formation of TD 2 do not indicate a coming uptick in activity. The 12z GFS ensemble run showed very dry air dominating the Atlantic for the next two weeks at least, and very high shear in the Caribbean. A quick spin-up or a development of non-tropical origin is certainly possible, but I would not expect anything significant before August 10. After that time, as I talked about a couple days ago, we may be in for a change to a more favorable pattern per the CFS, although that could well get pushed back. All signs continue to point towards a below average, perhaps significantly below average, season.
Nearby Weather Stations summer weather in the northeast today before the severe weather later


Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
87.6 °F

DopplerDon.com
87.2 °F

Rock Hill
83.4 °F

Foxon
86.2 °F

East Haven Town Beach
78.8 °F

Branford Shoreline
83.2 °F

Yale, Kline Geology Lab
85.4 °F
Quoting 104. Sfloridacat5:



Today's mission was flown in one of the weakest systems I've ever seen a plane invesigate.
They must have wanted to take a vacation down in the Caribbean or they were just re-locating aircraft (or a pilot needed some flight hours).


Looks like the TD2 plane was out of St.Croix, so it must have already been down there, Hey the more the merrier, vacation time in the tropics.
ALERT:


DANGEROUS STORMS AHEAD: NORTHEAST THREAT


Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Rangeley ME, Weld ME, Bingham ME until 4:30 PM EDT
Severe Storm Threat Returns

Portions of the Northeast will experience damaging winds and possibly even large hail.
FOUR Hurricanes all at the same time in Atlantic ...

I always thought that upper level lows were detrimental to tropical cyclones because they produce shearing winds in the upper atmosphere, but I recently heard by a member somewhere on this blog one time that upper level lows can sometimes be beneficial to tropical cyclones. Can someone explain this :)
Quoting 129. Melagoo:

FOUR Hurricanes all at the same time in Atlantic ...




And none of them impacted each other's outflow patterns.
Quoting 122. MAweatherboy1:


You are correct. Contrary to what some think, the waves over Africa and the formation of TD 2 do not indicate a coming uptick in activity. The 12z GFS ensemble run showed very dry air dominating the Atlantic for the next two weeks at least, and very high shear in the Caribbean. A quick spin-up or a development of non-tropical origin is certainly possible, but I would not expect anything significant before August 10. After that time, as I talked about a couple days ago, we may be in for a change to a more favorable pattern per the CFS, although that could well get pushed back. All signs continue to point towards a below average, perhaps significantly below average, season.



Yep
Quoting 119. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Grothar-

What do you think are the chances for regeneration?


The doctors said if I take it easy, I may have a few good years left. Oh, you mean 2L. Slim. Very hostile conditions in the Caribbean. Also, very dry air.

Quoting 122. MAweatherboy1:


You are correct. Contrary to what some think, the waves over Africa and the formation of TD 2 do not indicate a coming uptick in activity. The 12z GFS ensemble run showed very dry air dominating the Atlantic for the next two weeks at least, and very high shear in the Caribbean. A quick spin-up or a development of non-tropical origin is certainly possible, but I would not expect anything significant before August 10. After that time, as I talked about a couple days ago, we may be in for a change to a more favorable pattern per the CFS, although that could well get pushed back. All signs continue to point towards a below average, perhaps significantly below average, season.


Will be slightly above avg seasonl. Nothing points to below avg other than it's allways dry and shear in July. Active period since 95 and the neautl - la nina = above avg season.
Quoting 119. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Grothar-

What do you think are the chances for regeneration?



read the blog you were said nil = 0%%%%%%%%%!!!!!
Quoting 130. lobdelse81:

I always thought that upper level lows were detrimental to tropical cyclones because they produce shearing winds in the upper atmosphere, but I recently heard by a member somewhere on this blog one time that upper level lows can sometimes be beneficial to tropical cyclones. Can someone explain this :)


The center of an upper level low has low wind shear numbers, but creates a stable atmosphere as there is sinking air at the center of an upper level low, reason you rarely see convection over the center, however in rare circumstances these upper level lows can transfer there vorticity or energy to the surface and create a surface low. Now if the upper level low stretches and dies off in time, the mid level low can take over and create a solid outflow pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere depending upon the nature of the upper level low's departure? Also the mid level low transfers its energy to the surface and creates a surface low.
According to the CIMSS tropical cyclone wind shear maps, TD2 is only expected to withstand 20 knots of wind shear from the west, although direction might be detrimental to development, normally anything from the west can be considered detrimental to a cyclone's development phase, however anything 20 knots or under should not be considered hostile enough to kill off. 20 knots should not be that bad, unless it increases along the depression's path in the future, then it will die off, but not due to 20 knots of shear. I have seen cyclone's maintain strength during 20 knots of wind shear.
The "Salami express" is on its way.

Quoting 136. Grothar:


nothing for me
but the african wave train looks impressive by aug 1st we will know if this actually comes to fruitation
Quoting lobdelse81:
I always thought that upper level lows were detrimental to tropical cyclones because they produce shearing winds in the upper atmosphere, but I recently heard by a member somewhere on this blog one time that upper level lows can sometimes be beneficial to tropical cyclones. Can someone explain this :)


To make it simple, you're right. What you really want is high pressure aloft. That allows the storm to form stacked/vertically and provide ventilation.

But UULs have been known to work their way down to the surface when given enough time and the right conditions (sitting over warm tropical water for a long time). But in general, UUL are not favorable for tropical development.

142. PR51
What will be the impact of ex TD#2 in Puerto Rico? We are experiencing a really drought season.
Quoting 115. washingtonian115:

I mentioned the enso because in el nino years like 2009 shear shuts down the caribbean for most of the time.Shear has been very high in the regioned and Ironically it's where the deepest warmest waters are.I didn't say the highest values are out somewhere else in the Atlantic. The atmosphere is el nino like.
why though........ why is the atmosphere like el nino... that makes no sense to me at all
Quoting 134. Camille33:


Will be slightly above avg seasonl. Nothing points to below avg other than it's allways dry and shear in July. Active period since 95 and the neautl - la nina = above avg season.


read the blog you were said nil = 0%%%%%%%%%!!!!!


I read the blog- but I prefer to hear from an talented person.
Quoting 129. Melagoo:

FOUR Hurricanes all at the same time in Atlantic ...




What Atlantic is this you speak of?
Quoting 143. wunderweatherman123:

why though........ why is the atmosphere like el nino... that makes no sense to me at all
Very dry in the islands that's also very el nino like.
Mayfly swarm fools radar
BBC video, 23 July 2014 Last updated at 17:08
Millions of mayflies took to the air in Wisconsin, USA tricking radar into thinking it was raining. The swarm was so dense it's being blamed for three car accidents. Although an annual event, it's not often they swarm in such numbers as to be picked up by radar as rain. BBC Weather's Matt Taylor reports for BBC World.


Rain won't extinguish huge Central Wash. wildfire
By Associated Press Published: Jul 23, 2014 at 10:49 AM PDT Last Updated: Jul 23, 2014 at 11:16 AM PDT
Quoting 143. wunderweatherman123:

why though........ why is the atmosphere like el nino... that makes no sense to me at all
High shear in the caribbean..drought in caribbean islands.Intense typhoons..very active e-pacific..big troughs coming down early..very active southern jet..need I say more?.Even CWG said the pattern was very el nino like.
Quoting 149. washingtonian115:

High shear in the caribbean..drought in caribbean islands.Intense typhoons..very active e-pacific..big troughs coming down early..very active southern jet..need I say more?.Even CWG said the pattern was very el nino like.
The next El-Nino update is August 7th, so we will see if they said the atmosphere has responded to the developing weak to moderate El-Nino. It seems obviously like it has.
Quoting 147. barbamz:

Mayfly swarm fools radar
BBC video, 23 July 2014 Last updated at 17:08
Millions of mayflies took to the air in Wisconsin, USA tricking radar into thinking it was raining. The swarm was so dense it's being blamed for three car accidents. Although an annual event, it's not often they swarm in such numbers as to be picked up by radar as rain. BBC Weather's Matt Taylor reports for BBC World.



From Dr. Masters

A general rule of thumb is that the shear must be 20 knots or less for intensification to occur. Most instances of rapid intensification of hurricanes occur when the wind shear is 10 knots or less. However, large and powerful hurricanes can be resistant to shear values as high as 40 knots, as demonstrated by Hurricane Wilma (Figure 1). We often see tropical disturbances under 10 knots of wind shear that do not develop. Why? Oftentimes, this is because cold, dry air aloft associated with an upper level trough of low pressure is interfering with development. Tropical cyclones develop most readily when an upper level anticyclone (high pressure system aloft) is present overhead.
I appreciate all of Steven's fill-in blog entries, and I'll definitely follow him at his own WU blog after this. But, still, I look forward to Dr. Masters returning, as I'd like to hear his take on this past June being the warmest ever recorded globally, and that right on the tails of May, 2014, being the warmest ever recorded. The tropical weather information and discussion here is often(usually?) interesting, but when the forum turns to petty bickering over a dead TD, the repeated posting of 300 hour-plus models, and hypecasting a few weak and unsupported African waves, one starts to long for great and sustained dialog about interesting--and profoundly impactful--climatological findings.

You know?
Quoting 133. Grothar:



The doctors said if I take it easy, I may have a few good years left. Oh, you mean 2L. Slim. Very hostile conditions in the Caribbean. Also, very dry air.




Umm actually it's better upper level conditions than 6hrs ago it's not much but still better

On another note



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUL 2014 Time : 194500 UTC
Lat : 14:04:05 N Lon : 57:34:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1013.1mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.8 3.5

Center Temp : -47.1C Cloud Region Temp : -35.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.96 ARC in MD GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1016mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.0 degrees

************************************************* ***
Weakening and rapid dissipation flag are now turned off

Disturbance over eastern Cuba and southeastern Bahamas showing signs of rotation in the cloud mass, showing signs of ventilation in anticyclonic upper level flow, centered over the Northern Bahamas and east of GA, this upper level anticyclone supporting favorable wind shear values over our disturbance. This is leftover vorticity from the tropical wave that entered the Caribbean Sea about four days ago.


If the MJO forecast holds up, we could see an increase in activity between late July (last 5 days or so)-mid August.
Hi Wash115, there is no El Nino and may not be one this year if the Nino regions keep crashing. This is a typical July pattern in the Atlantic and Caribbean except for a mild drought in some of the islands. If October comes and those who are suffering from drought conditions still are then they will have a problem but that is unlikely to happen as their will be tropical rains from Hurricanes or Tropical storms to alleviate the drought, just give it time. It's only July people and years like 2005 don't happen often.
Quoting 153. Neapolitan:

I appreciate all of Steven's fill-in blog entries, and I'll definitely follow him at his own WU blog after this. But, still, I look forward to Dr. Masters returning, as I'd like to hear his take on this past June being the warmest ever recorded globally, and that right on the tails of May, 2014, being the warmest ever recorded. The tropical weather information and discussion here is often(usually?) interesting, but when the forum turns to petty bickering over a dead TD, the repeated posting of 300 hour-plus models, and hypecasting a few weak and unsupported African waves, one starts to long for great and sustained dialog about interesting--and profoundly impactful--climatological findings.

You know?

Umm, a lot of people bicker too with all the CC stuff, and a lot of it is in desperation because the Atlantic is dead.

Me, and many other people on here live for moments of activity in the Atlantic.
pbs did a little segment of turkey creek nuke facility near miami they use a netwk of canals to cool the reactors and they said on the pbs segment those canals are are reaching the highest temp. allowed 100f. they blame it on the lack of rain. what is funny i have been looking at the radars its been raining everyday. sounds like even miami is hoping for a wet cyclone
Quoting 157. luvtogolf:



We know, filled with meaningless posts like yours.


I agree, climate posts are not what makes this blog tick, this is a tropical weather blog and yes the author has any ideas that he likes to include thats fine, its his blog to write in, but I love tropical weather, and every disturbance has a chance to develop, so don't knock it down because the environment is slightly less conducive according to models. Models have no idea what is really happening in actuality.


Not a pretty picture for the N Islands...
Please Neo , give it up. I like Dr. Gregory post as they pertain to a Tropical weather blog.
Quoting 145. LemieT:



What Atlantic is this you speak of?
That is 1998 Atlantidc hurricane season, was the worst for my country.
Quoting 162. TheDawnAwakening:



I agree, climate posts are not what makes this blog tick, this is a tropical weather blog and yes the author has any ideas that he likes to include thats fine, its his blog to write in, but I love tropical weather, and every disturbance has a chance to develop, so don't knock it down because the environment is slightly less conducive according to models. Models have no idea what is really happening in actuality.


Relying on computer models is like relying on people to tell you the truth when its not in their best interests. Very unlikely in happening.
Quoting 159. NativeSun:

Hi Wash115, there is no El Nino and may not be one this year if the Nino regions keep crashing. This is a typical July pattern in the Atlantic and Caribbean except for a mild drought in some of the islands. If October comes and those who are suffering from drought conditions still are then they will have a problem but that is unlikely to happen as their will be tropical rains from Hurricanes or Tropical storms to alleviate the drought, just give it time. It's only July people and years like 2005 don't happen often.


This is encouraging :-)
Well, if it continues like this into the heart of the season, the only type of storm we may have to look out for in terms of affecting populated aras is the Andrew-prototype or a home-grown system like Arthur which avoids the oh-so unfavorable Caribbean or East Atlantic.
A Lovely Animation of the Planet's Hot-Weather 'Misery'
Where in the world is it unbearably hot right now?
John Metcalfe, Citylab, today
You got to give it up for Cameron Beccario for making one of history's most beautiful simulations of the earth's winds. But rather than sit back and lavish in the attention it's generated - including snagging him a cameo on Asian TV - he's been adding more data layers to the model, including a new one he calls the "misery index."
The M.I. "combines wind chill and heat index to show what the air feels like," says the Tokyo-based data artist. In other words, it takes into account how a high relative humidity can make your skin feel like it's covered by a boiling-hot towelette, and how brisk winds in the colder months can blow away all body warmth and make it seem like somebody threw you in an ice chest.
Beccario's model is very close to real time, so all that's happening in the world's most miserable weather is clearly on display. (To turn on the M.I. and other layers, click on "Earth" at lower left.) Look, here's the moist warm front currently wafting over the Unites States' midsection, making temperatures feel as high as 112 degrees:




Whole article see link above.

Current index for the US.

If I had to bet 100 dollars, I would say that we are out of the active period that began in 1995.
I thought we were expecting it to pull a Don or Chris and poof into nothingness amidst dry air? It's definitely still a tropical low/disturbance with ample convection. If it stays in this general form through the Caribbean, do you think it could regenerate upon getting towards the GOMEX or something like that?
Quoting 171. opal92nwf:

If I had to bet 100 dollars, I would say that we are out of the active period that began in 1995.


How could you say that we are out of the active period? Its been a year at best where we didn't have many tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Come on please, just because there are normal shear levels in the Caribbean Sea and MDR region for the month of July, dry air is normal this time of the year, wait until October.
Quoting 159. NativeSun:

Hi Wash115, there is no El Nino and may not be one this year if the Nino regions keep crashing. This is a typical July pattern in the Atlantic and Caribbean except for a mild drought in some of the islands. If October comes and those who are suffering from drought conditions still are then they will have a problem but that is unlikely to happen as their will be tropical rains from Hurricanes or Tropical storms to alleviate the drought, just give it time. It's only July people and years like 2005 don't happen often.

Typical?



Typical?

Quoting 153. Neapolitan:

I appreciate all of Steven's fill-in blog entries, and I'll definitely follow him at his own WU blog after this. But, still, I look forward to Dr. Masters returning, as I'd like to hear his take on this past June being the warmest ever recorded globally, and that right on the tails of May, 2014, being the warmest ever recorded. The tropical weather information and discussion here is often(usually?) interesting, but when the forum turns to petty bickering over a dead TD, the repeated posting of 300 hour-plus models, and hypecasting a few weak and unsupported African waves, one starts to long for great and sustained dialog about interesting--and profoundly impactful--climatological findings.

You know?


From what I recall, blog bickering reaches a maxima during climate discussions.
Quoting 125. Grothar:


I made a comment a while back about the colder water surging northward from the S.E.Pacific. It does appear to be affecting Nino.
Quoting 173. TheDawnAwakening:



How could you say that we are out of the active period? Its been a year at best where we didn't have many tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Come on please, just because there are normal shear levels in the Caribbean Sea and MDR region for the month of July, dry air is normal this time of the year, wait until October.

Well, first it is supposed to last something like 15-20yrs.

Years like 95, 96, 98, 99, 03, 04, 05, 07, 08, 10, 11 epitomized what this active pattern was about. You didn't see seasons like that that frequently in the 70's and 80's.

And yeah, we could be in a relative lull like 2000-2001, but 2013 was the first time we've seen a year that unimpressive since 1994.

The atypical conditions of the Caribbean being hostile and such seem to be taking over for the time being.

With 12, 13, and 14 so far being less than 1998 or 2003 worthy coupled with it being over 15 years since 1995, It is safe to say we are very likely leaving that active pattern.
Quoting 176. hydrus:

I made a comment a while back about the colder water surging northward from the S.E.Pacific. It does appear to be affecting Nino.


Exactly. Though basically I have no clue as a lay person, I've just noticed - watching "Earth Wind" (see post #170) that - while strong westerlies built up in the WPac which should support El Nino - the southern EPac is dominated by those surface winds from the south east which should push cooler waters into the region of interest:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface /level/orthographic=-109.80,-12.80,641
Quoting Jedkins01:


From what I recall, blog bickering reaches a maxima during climate discussions.


You mean you don't enjoy watching the same small group argue about the same thing day after day?

When there are tropical systems we get a wide variety of members involved in the discussion.

CC discusions are almost always limited to a very small group of members going back and forth day after day.

It would be really nice if Dr. Masters had a CC blog (strickly for blog members that wish to discuss CC) and a separate blog (tropical in topic) for members that want to discuss the tropics.



TD2 never had any deep convection, Tstorms in the lower 48 had higher rain rates I bet.
@169: That messy man is really grossing me out, could someone please remove him???

The following has been the theme of Atlantic since 2009 (minus Isaac, Irene, and Sandy)


Hope everyone is having a great summer! Mine's pretty good although I still have to deal with the morning commute:



Loud engines:



Late nights:



Traffic jams:



But a boy can dream:

@181..sorry the messy guy is George from Seinfeld..didnt know a cult classic would gross you out..I removed it per your request..

Huh, Brian, in which continent are you right now? I'm missing your round-ups of scientific news ...
Quoting 175. Jedkins01:



From what I recall, blog bickering reaches a maxima during climate discussions.
Quoting 153. Neapolitan:

I appreciate all of Steven's fill-in blog entries, and I'll definitely follow him at his own WU blog after this. But, still, I look forward to Dr. Masters returning, as I'd like to hear his take on this past June being the warmest ever recorded globally, and that right on the tails of May, 2014, being the warmest ever recorded. The tropical weather information and discussion here is often(usually?) interesting, but when the forum turns to petty bickering over a dead TD, the repeated posting of 300 hour-plus models, and hypecasting a few weak and unsupported African waves, one starts to long for great and sustained dialog about interesting--and profoundly impactful--climatological findings.

You know?
Dr masters take on the two warmest months on record I will fill in for him the last two months were the warmest on record because of co2 and greenhouse gasses blah blah blah
Quoting 176. hydrus:

I made a comment a while back about the colder water surging northward from the S.E.Pacific. It does appear to be affecting Nino.


The Humboldt Current is taking its tole on the warmer waters. There needs to be a strong westerly burst to get the waters to warm up again. Although with all the activity in the eastern and western pacific, it looks like there will be.

Quoting 183. ncstorm:

@181..sorry the messy guy is George from Seinfeld..didnt know a cult classic would gross you out..I removed it per your request..



No biggie (: My parents loved that show.

Sighh.......
Quoting 179. Sfloridacat5:



You mean you don't enjoy watching the same small group argue about the same thing day after day?

When there are tropical systems we get a wide variety of members involved in the discussion.

CC discusions are almost always limited to a very small group of members going back and forth day after day.

It would be really nice if Dr. Masters had a CC blog (stickly for blog members that wish to discuss CC) and a separate blog (tropical in topic) for members that want to discuss the tropics.
Apparently you have never noticed Dr. Ricky Rood's climate blog, which attracts a lot of the deniers from this blog to fight and argue with the climate change students -- it's a very similar atmosphere over there and just about as negative at times. Sad. It is just about the most important issue we face and ignoring it in favor of tropical weather fandom isn't helping the situation.
Quoting 187. opal92nwf:


No biggie (: My parents loved that show.

Sighh.......



well now you making me feel old :)..

the show was on during the 90s while I was in college and still comes on TBS every weekday..I still love it..
190. VR46L
Guess there must be nothing happening over on Dr Rood's ....

Anyway

Some interesting weather in Okie

Quoting 175. Jedkins01:



From what I recall, blog bickering reaches a maxima during climate discussions.


I can't wait to get back to fighting and insulting people. I miss the good old days when I could really get into it. :)
I haven't been over to Dr. Rood's blog nor been in any climate change discussion on this blog contrary to a conversation said earlier for several months now..I can thank the activity log for that as it was removed from my view with the new website upgrade and the temptation was removed..

I came to Dr. Masters blog by way of tropical weather and enjoy it tremendously..

Quoting CaneFreeCR:
Apparently you have never noticed Dr. Ricky Rood's climate blog, which attracts a lot of the deniers from this blog to fight and argue with the climate change students -- it's a very similar atmosphere over there and just about as negative at times. Sad. It is just about the most important issue we face and ignoring it in favor of tropical weather fandom isn't helping the situation.
I have called Rood's blog the global warming ghetto. It helps keep the riff raff off of Master's blog. Of course, it helps that people like Levi have pretty much given up promulgating the denialist spiel. Lot fewer active denialists than there used to be--or at least they are less active.
Is that another flareup.

Quoting Grothar:


I can't wait to get back to fighting and insulting people. I miss the good old days when I could really get into it. :)

You are always sly about it though.
Quoting 179. Sfloridacat5:



You mean you don't enjoy watching the same small group argue about the same thing day after day?

When there are tropical systems we get a wide variety of members involved in the discussion.

CC discusions are almost always limited to a very small group of members going back and forth day after day.

It would be really nice if Dr. Masters had a CC blog (strickly for blog members that wish to discuss CC) and a separate blog (tropical in topic) for members that want to discuss the tropics.



No, it would be nice if people didn't reject science based on ideology and conspiracy ideation. I don't see how segregation would solve any issue, historically it certainly hasn't.

This isn't an attack on you, or anyone else, but why don't we let Dr. Master's decide what his blog is to be about. His blog has never been strictly tropical weather or strictly climate change

Quoting 175. Jedkins01:



From what I recall, blog bickering reaches a maxima during climate discussions.


I clearly remember the daily existential blog crises last year during the tropical season. When things get slow in the tropics the bickering starts. It's like Lord of the Flies in here sometimes, regardless of topic of discussion. :)
Quoting Grothar:
Is that another flareup.


No, just complimenting Levi. :)
Quoting 194. Grothar:

Is that another flareup.




cant be..its supposed to fizzle out
Could be a squally night in the Central Leeward Islands!
Quoting Naga5000:
I clearly remember the daily existential blog crises last year during the tropical season. When things get slow in the tropics the bickering starts. It's like Lord of the Flies in here sometimes, regardless of topic of discussion. :)

Ah, yes.
Quoting 182. BaltimoreBrian:

Hope everyone is having a great summer! Mine's pretty good although I still have to deal with the morning commute:



Loud engines:



Late nights:



Traffic jams:



But a boy can dream:




nice pictures!!
Quoting 196. Naga5000:



I clearly remember the daily existential blog crises last year during the tropical season. When things get slow in the tropics the bickering starts. It's like Lord of the Flies in here sometimes, regardless of topic of discussion. :)


Oh yeah. There was an extremely dull lull in August that I remember where one night I got on and like no one was there.
Quoting opal92nwf:

Well, first it is supposed to last something like 15-20yrs.

Years like 95, 96, 98, 99, 03, 04, 05, 07, 08, 10, 11 epitomized what this active pattern was about. You didn't see seasons like that that frequently in the 70's and 80's.

And yeah, we could be in a relative lull like 2000-2001, but 2013 was the first time we've seen a year that unimpressive since 1994.

The atypical conditions of the Caribbean being hostile and such seem to be taking over for the time being.

With 12, 13, and 14 so far being less than 1998 or 2003 worthy coupled with it being over 15 years since 1995, It is safe to say we are very likely leaving that active pattern.


Not yet, I'd say we have some more time before another quieter era is ushered in. Probably not until the 2020s. If this year and next both slug behind, then maybe we can make conjectures about the return of the inactive period.
Well, I got to finish more than 3/4ths of an online class before Aug. 2.

Unless ex T.D. 2 does something wacky, i'm just going to open my eyes again come early August: hopefully it will be more eventful than last August during that very poor excuse of a hurricane season.

I look forward to tracking canes' with you all soon! bye!
Quoting 176. hydrus:

I made a comment a while back about the colder water surging northward from the S.E.Pacific. It does appear to be affecting Nino.

That's actually natural. The trades naturally favor that.
Which is why we have to have westerly wind bursts from the warmer western side of the Pacific to push the warmer waters back toward the Eastern Pacific. Without those trades, the normal easterly trade winds kick in and allow the typical counter-clockwise current in the southern pacific to come up into the ENSO regions...
Quoting 177. opal92nwf:


Well, first it is supposed to last something like 15-20yrs.

Years like 95, 96, 98, 99, 03, 04, 05, 07, 08, 10, 11 epitomized what this active pattern was about. You didn't see seasons like that that frequently in the 70's and 80's.

And yeah, we could be in a relative lull like 2000-2001, but 2013 was the first time we've seen a year that unimpressive since 1994.

The atypical conditions of the Caribbean being hostile and such seem to be taking over for the time being.

With 12, 13, and 14 so far being less than 1998 or 2003 worthy coupled with it being over 15 years since 1995, It is safe to say we are very likely leaving that active pattern.


you are kidding right?

2010-2012 had the most named storms in a 3 year period. Each year had 19 named storms and 2012 had the 2nd costliest hurricane on record. Not sure what more you want. Last year had 14 named storms. Also both 2000 and 2001 had 15 named storms and 2001 had the only TS to be retired. Even in active periods, you are going to have some quietier seasons. The only seasons that were at or below average since 1995 were 1997, 2006 and 2009. The lack of stronger storms could just be due to circumstance more than anything, but to say we are going into a quieter period is crazy. Seasons like 2004, 2005 and 2008 are not going to always happen.
Former TD 2 tries to make a comeback but it doesnt manage. Hurricane Hunters investigated and found up to 40kt winds on NE Quadrant but no LLC. I think it could regenerate down the road, but unlikely.

Thoughts on Former TD 2: Link
Quoting 206. hurricanes2018:


NHC is cleaning it up.


anyone watching invest 91E
What have we been saying since the genesis of the now surface trough of ex TD Two?

It ain't happenin'. Wait until August.

gg no re
Temps (anomalies) are upside down in Europe right now: too hot in the north, a bit too cool in the southern Mediterranean area:



UK weather: Heatwave to stay until mid-August as schools break up for balmy start to holidays

I've already posted it this morning:

'First ever' heat warning issued for Sweden

More important news from Sweden :-)

Swedish police warn of rogue pregnant cow

Swedish cops elect not to shoot 'angry elks'


Well, in reality, world news are really depressing right now. But I think you follow them anyway ...
Good night from warm and sweltering Germany (btw: upper Rhine River is closed for navigation because of high waters, but this is not catastrophic).



Fun with high waters of little (!) creek called Dreisam, coming down from Blackforest (which got a lot of rain the last days) to the city of Freiburg (where I did some of my studies for three years - ages ago, lol) and feeding Rhine River.

Good night, and sorry for some off topic posts disregarding TD02 ... :-)
Quoting 177. opal92nwf:


Well, first it is supposed to last something like 15-20yrs.

Years like 95, 96, 98, 99, 03, 04, 05, 07, 08, 10, 11 epitomized what this active pattern was about. You didn't see seasons like that that frequently in the 70's and 80's.

And yeah, we could be in a relative lull like 2000-2001, but 2013 was the first time we've seen a year that unimpressive since 1994.

The atypical conditions of the Caribbean being hostile and such seem to be taking over for the time being.

With 12, 13, and 14 so far being less than 1998 or 2003 worthy coupled with it being over 15 years since 1995, It is safe to say we are very likely leaving that active pattern.


Atypical conditions of the Caribbean? No.
Currently odds of development are at 0% for the next 48 hours and into the 5 day time range for our Eastern Cuba disturbance, lack of a surface low, lack of strong vorticity at 850mb precludes any major development occurring before hitting SE FL as a blob of convection. Previously there were rumblings of potential spin up once it got into the western Atlantic Ocean north of Cuba and over the Bahamas development into a tropical cyclone would be possible, a weak TS at landfall potentially, but not any longer, its going to run out of real estate and it will not close off a circulation in the next forty eight hours.
Quoting 207. Hurricanes101:



you are kidding right?

2010-2012 had the most named storms in a 3 year period. Each year had 19 named storms and 2012 had the 2nd costliest hurricane on record. Not sure what more you want. Last year had 14 named storms. Also both 2000 and 2001 had 15 named storms and 2001 had the only TS to be retired. Even in active periods, you are going to have some quietier seasons. The only seasons that were at or below average since 1995 were 1997, 2006 and 2009. The lack of stronger storms could just be due to circumstance more than anything, but to say we are going into a quieter period is crazy. Seasons like 2004, 2005 and 2008 are not going to always happen.

Okay, you have to give me some slack, I was just writing on the fly off the top of my head. (:

i think the overarching theme though is the weird atypical conditions that started last year (and even touches of it were present in 2012) where normally conducive areas are hostile a lot of the time.

It is true that while just a season or two (13 and 14 (from what I can see so far)) are not enough to declare the end of the active period, but we are already more than 15 years out from 1995, and due to that, it is a lot more believable to speculate that we indeed are at the end of this period. Much more believable than if we were having this conversation 8 years ago...

What I'm seeing is a departure...

I think the major signal is that 2013 was the most weak since 1994...

Quoting 213. KoritheMan:



Atypical conditions of the Caribbean? No.

Well, hardly anything formed or did well in the heart of the Caribbean last year, and what I'm seeing is a carry over of that into this year.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


you are kidding right?

2010-2012 had the most named storms in a 3 year period. Each year had 19 named storms and 2012 had the 2nd costliest hurricane on record. Not sure what more you want. Last year had 14 named storms. Also both 2000 and 2001 had 15 named storms and 2001 had the only TS to be retired. Even in active periods, you are going to have some quietier seasons. The only seasons that were at or below average since 1995 were 1997, 2006 and 2009. The lack of stronger storms could just be due to circumstance more than anything, but to say we are going into a quieter period is crazy. Seasons like 2004, 2005 and 2008 are not going to always happen.


Not really disproving what he said. If the 70s and 80s seasons happened today, there would probably be a few more systems that perhaps went unnoticed or were just designated depressions back then that today would be declared storms to bring the totals to something more like 2013.

Just because you have tons of named storms does not mean you have tons of ACE.
Just like 1995 was BAM!!!! super active season, 2013 may be the spark that advents the end of the active period.
Quoting 217. wxgeek723:



Not really disproving what he said. If the 70s and 80s seasons happened today, there would probably be a few more systems that perhaps went unnoticed or were just designated depressions back then that today would be declared storms to bring the totals to something more like 2013.

Just because you have tons of named storms does not mean you have tons of ACE.


I could care less about ACE, its money and peoples lives that matter

2001 which he lumped in as an inactive portion of the period cost $7.1 billion while 2003 had $4.4.
Quoting 216. opal92nwf:


Well, hardly anything formed or did well in the heart of the Caribbean last year, and what I'm seeing is a carry over of that into this year.



Last year they were atypical, yeah, because the mid-oceanic trough never disappeared.

But I don't see anything atypical about any of the recent years besides 2013.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I could care less about ACE, its money and peoples lives that matter

2001 which he lumped in as an inactive portion of the period cost $7.1 billion while 2003 had $4.4.


Costly =/= active

Besides, 2001 never threw a hurricane at the US. Just a tropical storm with a freak amount of moisture.
Quoting 221. wxgeek723:



Costly =/= active

Besides, 2001 never threw a hurricane at the US. Just a tropical storm with a freak amount of moisture.


No but costly and deadly are more important. Its not like we have gone several seasons without a huge impact storm. Last year was likely an anamoly and not the start of a trend.
2012 only had 2 major hurricanes, each lasting 6 hours, but that's understandable given the warming of the East Pacific during August (leading to above-average shear across the tropical Atlantic; an explanation why most activity was north of 25N). Last year and this year have been extraordinarily dry across the central and eastern Atlantic, and I don't know of the cause. It'll be interesting to see if this continues into subsequent years. I'm not ready to say the AMO has changed outside of its typical variation though. After all, the AMO is represented through sea surface temperatures--and 2014 is the only season so far with a negative configuration.
Quoting Grothar:
Is that another flareup.

I rather call it pulses of energy, hopefully providing a few needed sprinkles to the islands....
Also I wonder if it is possible that the less active seasons in terms of intense storms are a direct results of the seasons that proceeded them

1997 followed the 1995(19) and 1996(13) seasons
2006 followed the 2004(15) and 2005(28) seasons
2009 followed the 2007(15) and 2008(16) seasons
2013 followed 2010-2012 that had the highest 3 years count of named storms on record (19 in each)
Quoting 217. wxgeek723:



Not really disproving what he said. If the 70s and 80s seasons happened today, there would probably be a few more systems that perhaps went unnoticed or were just designated depressions back then that today would be declared storms to bring the totals to something more like 2013.

Just because you have tons of named storms does not mean you have tons of ACE.

Undoubtedly there probably would be a storm or two in each season in all of the time before satellites, but that isn't a symptom to all Atlantic activity fluctuations. The positive and negative AMO's are a known influence on Atlantic activity, which is why those decades were inactive.

1930's. Postivie AMO.
Quoting 212. barbamz:

Temps (anomalies) are upside down in Europe right now: too hot in the north, a bit too cool in the southern Mediterranean area:



UK weather: Heatwave to stay until mid-August as schools break up for balmy start to holidays

Hi Barb... at least the heat wave should make it relatively comfortable for all the athletes from the tropics who are in Glasgow over the next two weeks for the Commonwealth games....
Quoting 223. Hurricanes101:



No but costly and deadly are more important. Its not like we have gone several seasons without a huge impact storm. Last year was likely an anamoly and not the start of a trend.


I don't know. I see what you're saying, but for all practical purposes I agree with Trent more here.

The US has seen four hurricanes in the last six years; five if you count Sandy, which was technically extratropical. Even considering that the east coast trough is a baroclinically-favored semipermanent feature (and it is; the westerlies are supposed to be found north of 25N), it's the anomalies that are important, and the trough has been aclimatologically deep for most of the past few years. Things are looking different this year, but there was ridging in June-July 2010, and then again in 2013, before the trough returned in time for August and September.

The average incidence for US landfalls is roughly 3 per year if I recall correctly, making this recent dearth of landfalls even more unusual.

Yes we've had damage, but we haven't had landfalls. So far, things look like they may change back to a more normal regime this year, as evidenced by the GFS' consistent forecast of upper air ridging in the wake of the current trough. We'll see.

I don't believe anything is amiss with the numbers of recent seasons, but something is clearly awry with the US landfall pattern.

Rationalizing that with an overt damage figure doesn't change it.
Looks like Matmo is winding down at last....



Should be a mostly clear day today in Taiwan, which should aid in cleanup and damage / casualty assessments there.
Somebody somewhere is celebrating Batman Day today....
Active stretches of the warm AMO are typically 25 to 40 years so I highly doubt we are going back to a slow period. Even in the active times their are always slow years, you cannot have 18 or more named storms every year.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


No but costly and deadly are more important. Its not like we have gone several seasons without a huge impact storm. Last year was likely an anamoly and not the start of a trend.


Irrelevant to your original argument but I'll just drop it here.
Quoting 232. BahaHurican:

Somebody somewhere is celebrating Batman Day today....


I'm not.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Tropical Depression Two, located about 140 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles, are producing cloudiness and
disorganized showers. There are no signs of a surface circulation,
and environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for
re-development of this system as it moves rapidly westward at 25
mph. Regardless of development, the system is expected to bring
gusty winds and showers to portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight
and Thursday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Here is a quote from Phil Klotzbach to a met that was posted in another forum. There you have it,no active N Atlantic this season.


He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
2012 only had 2 major hurricanes, each lasting 6 hours, but that's understandable given the warming of the East Pacific during August (leading to above-average shear across the tropical Atlantic; an explanation why most activity was north of 25N). Last year and this year have been extraordinarily dry across the central and eastern Atlantic, and I don't know of the cause. It'll be interesting to see if this continues into subsequent years. I'm not ready to say the AMO has changed outside of its typical variation though. After all, the AMO is represented through sea surface temperatures--and 2014 is the only season so far with a negative configuration.


If instability was higher in 2012 I believe storms like Gordon, Kirk, and Leslie could have reached greater heights than what they ultimately did. It was like the active season that couldn't.
It doesn't look like this heralded pattern change across the Atlantic is going to occur anytime soon. The ECMWF shows numerous upper-level lows moving across the Atlantic over the next 240 hours. The NASA GEOS-5 model has plenty of SAL moving off Africa as well.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is a quote frpm Phil Klotzbach to a met that was posted in another forum. There you have it,no active N Atlantic this season.


He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.


Source? S'il te plait
I have learned the numbers don't really matter nor does the overall strength in a season's storms, one is more than enough regardless of the strength at just the right size and location. Active season or not I take every blob seriously each wave is a potential life changer.
Quoting 238. Tropicsweatherpr:

Here is a quote from Phil Klotzbach to a met that was posted in another forum. There you have it,no active N Atlantic this season.


He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.


I still argue that if we get the forecast upper ridging from the GFS and it lasts for any reasonable length of time (5 to 10 days, even), we'll see possible development in the western Atlantic as the subsident flow of the subtropical ridge and upstream trough afflict more strongly the central and eastern Atlantic. The weakness in the subtropical ridge would lie over the eastern US, allowing moisture to condense and concentrate in that area.

Tropical cyclogenesis may not be the most likely scenario (nor is the ridging, necessarily), but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Any development would probably occur in the Gulf under that pattern, as you said.
244. MahFL
Oh yellow alert on ex TD2.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The remnants of Tropical Depression Two, located about 140 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles, are producing cloudiness and
disorganized showers. There are no signs of a surface circulation,
and environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for
re-development of this system as it moves rapidly westward at 25
mph. Regardless of development, the system is expected to bring
gusty winds and showers to portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight
and Thursday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
here we go again
Quoting 198. ncstorm:



cant be..its supposed to fizzle out
I thought "fizzle out" was blogspeak for "no longer a depression".... not quite the same as "poof".... now is it...

:o]

Quoting 199. stormpetrol:

Could be a squally night in the Central Leeward Islands!
Some are hopeful! [g]
Quoting 238. Tropicsweatherpr:

Here is a quote from Phil Klotzbach to a met that was posted in another forum. There you have it,no active N Atlantic this season.


He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.
All the coastal areas from GOH to NJ are looking better than the rest of the basin. This is fine in Jun and Jul, but in Aug and Sep this means whatever does form is likely to impact land in some way.

Quoting MahFL:
Oh yellow alert on ex TD2.

That's the lowest level "alert" there is for a disturbance. The NHC is still giving it a 0%/0% probability of becoming a TD again. As with Arthur and now exTD2, both the models and the NHC have done an excellent job. TD2 was progged to become a remnant tomorrow but the NHC has always said it could happen sooner. If you read between the lines on the discussions, it was obvious to me that some number of the forecasters felt it was going to open up sooner.

It seems to me that we got about the best outcome we could from TD2. It didn't grow into dangerous storm but the convection associated with the disturbance is still ongoing. That means there's a large part of the Caribbean that will get beneficial rains with very few problems. You and others did good to see the low that would become TD2 form. Looking at the current satellite photos, it now looks like a strong tropical wave, and I imagine most residents of the Caribbean are delighted about that.
Starting to band:

Quoting 229. KoritheMan:



I don't know. I see what you're saying, but for all practical purposes I agree with Trent more here.

The US has seen four hurricanes in the last six years; five if you count Sandy, which was technically extratropical. Even considering that the east coast trough is a baroclinically-favored semipermanent feature (and it is; the westerlies are supposed to be found north of 25N), it's the anomalies that are important, and the trough has been aclimatologically deep for most of the past few years. Things are looking different this year, but there was ridging in June-July 2010, and then again in 2013, before the trough returned in time for August and September.

The average incidence for US landfalls is roughly 3 per year if I recall correctly, making this recent dearth of landfalls even more unusual.

Yes we've had damage, but we haven't had landfalls. So far, things look like they may change back to a more normal regime this year, as evidenced by the GFS' consistent forecast of upper air ridging in the wake of the current trough. We'll see.

I don't believe anything is amiss with the numbers of recent seasons, but something is clearly awry with the US landfall pattern.

Rationalizing that with an overt damage figure doesn't change it.


was the average 3 per year before the active period though? We have had lulls before during active periods and we have had a lot of landfalls during inactive periods, every season is different. That is why to me there is not enough evidence to show this as any sort of anamoly or sign of things changing
Quoting 240. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It doesn't look like this heralded pattern change across the Atlantic is going to occur anytime soon. The ECMWF shows numerous upper-level lows moving across the Atlantic over the next 240 hours. The NASA GEOS-5 model has plenty of SAL moving off Africa as well.
I haven't looked at 10-15 day models so far this week, but I'm pretty sure pattern change is not likely before first week in August. This has been pretty consistent. Long range stuff I'd been watching was showing a shift around the 7th or so. Again, this is not surprising, but rather quite typical here. I know we don't typically shift to regular afternoon squalls here until mid-Aug.
One interesting potential harbinger is a couple of the MJO forecasts bringing the active phase into our basis around that time.

Still have another week to relax, I'd guess...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Just did my daily update on the Atlantic tropics...have to admit it continues to be a slow Atlantic season...
It's the middle of July!
Quoting 249. KoritheMan:

Starting to band:



SAB is already up to T2.0. Not sure if 91E has a closed low yet though.

Quoting barbamz:


Good night, and sorry for some off topic posts disregarding TD02 ... :-)
I always appreciate your Euro-centric input. It broadens my horizons. :)
Quoting 250. Hurricanes101:



was the average 3 per year before the active period though? We have had lulls before during active periods and we have had a lot of landfalls during inactive periods, every season is different. That is why to me there is not enough evidence to show this as any sort of anamoly or sign of things changing


I think the average might have fallen before the current active period, but I'm not sure. But actually, if it did, that makes it even more unusual. Statistically, more storms = greater potential for landfalls by mere virtue of there being more storms.

A lot depends on timing and formative location too, though; Charley, Frances, Gaston, Hermine hit in August 2004, and Edouard, Fay, and Gustav hit in August 2008, both months that were dominated by upper air troughing over the east.
Quoting 253. bappit:

It's the middle of July!


I know right! We already had a Cat. 2 hit...uh...North Carolina.

:0
Quoting 253. bappit:

It's the middle of July!
July - stand by...

Quoting 253. bappit:

It's the middle of July!

Well by this time last year we already had 3 named tropical storms. And by this time in 2012 we already had 4 named storms. And by this time in 2011 we already had 3 named storms. Even if you just look at the number of invests...we are also relatively slow relative to the past 3 seasons (though the past 3 seasons were above average in terms of the # of storms).

This season so far has got the feeling of a more average or below-average season...
Quoting 254. TropicalAnalystwx13:


SAB is already up to T2.0. Not sure if 91E has a closed low yet though.


At least based on this partial ASCAT pass a few hours ago it's not.

Quoting 257. Astrometeor:



I know right! We already had a Cat. 2 hit...uh...North Carolina.

:0


That didn't count because it didn't cause untold destruction.

Prevailing blog mentality.
Quoting 238. Tropicsweatherpr:

Here is a quote from Phil Klotzbach to a met that was posted in another forum. There you have it,no active N Atlantic this season.


He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.

Kind of sounds like the mult-decadal signal could be switching back to less active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic? If you figure the signal lasts 20 years...and the active era started in 1995...then the switch back to a quieter period should be around 2015. And right now its 2014.
Quoting 261. KoritheMan:



That didn't count because it didn't cause untold destruction.

Prevailing blog mentality.


It counts to me because I chased it. That storm alone made it up for 2013, haha.
TD2 remnants losing its "moisture envelope." Wave behind it has a chance.
1998

Hurrican Mitch Was A Category Five Hurrican When Made Landfall Just South Belize Hurricane Mitch spared Belize its 160MPH winds but the torrential rains cause extensive damage to crops and roads. Mitch became the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since the Great Hurricane of 1780. Nearly eleven thousand people were confirmed dead, and almost as many were reported missing and never found.

Deaths were mostly from flooding and mud slides in Central America, where the slow-moving storm dropped nearly 3 feet of rain. The flooding and mud slides damaged or destroyed tens of thousands of homes, with total damage estimated to be over $6 billion.

Prior to Mitch, the deadliest hurricane to affect Central America was Hurricane Fifi in 1974, which killed an estimated 8,000–10,000 people, mostly in Honduras and Nicaragua.
Quoting 259. NCHurricane2009:


Well by this time last year we already had 3 named tropical storms. And by this time in 2012 we already had 4 named storms. And by this time in 2011 we already had 3 named storms. Even if you just look at the number of invests...we are also relatively slow relative to the past 3 seasons (though the past 3 seasons were above average in terms of the # of storms).

This season so far has got the feeling of a more average or below-average season...
Not surprising considering it's supposed to be a an average to below average season.

Like 2006.

I been saying, the Bertha's have us spoiled...
To put a point on the rem. low or RL I'd say 14.3N 59.1W this would seem right as there is somewhat of a broad rotation or atleast broad turning on satellite floater and radar

Redevelopment could be a possibility but not within the next 24-36/48hrs
Conditions ahead in the Caribbean does not seem as bad as originally thought
Shear levels have dropped and likely with the movement of this system move W-WNW as the last model runs had it would only have to deal with around 20kts of shear until passing N of 16N and W of 72W dust does not seem as bad as it originally look but still some there dry air is there but weakening out further W as some scattered storm are flaring up to its W moistening the area

Other than that stated about and some land interaction it's got some chances of some redevelopment down the road
At the moment possibility of it is low for next 36-48hrs there after I'll give it medium to low for now
And if I got this correct John Hope did say if it's got convection there is always a possibility

Quoting 241. wxgeek723:



Source? S'il te plait


No link as it was only a brief conversation about how the N Atlantic is doing.
Quoting 261. KoritheMan:



That didn't count because it didn't cause untold destruction.

Prevailing blog mentality.
Moreover it did not hit Florida.
[ducks and runs]
Quoting 267. wunderkidcayman:

To put a point on the rem. low or RL I'd say 14.3N 59.1W this would seem right as there is somewhat of a broad rotation or atleast broad turning on satellite floater and radar

Redevelopment could be a possibility but not within the next 24-36/48hrs
Conditions ahead in the Caribbean does not seem as bad as originally thought
Shear levels have dropped and likely with the movement of this system move W-WNW as the last model runs had it would only have to deal with around 20kts of shear until passing N of 16N and W of 72W dust does not seem as bad as it originally look but still some there dry air is there but weakening out further W as some scattered storm are flaring up to its W moistening the area

Other than that stated about and some land interaction it's got some chances of some redevelopment down the road
At the moment possibility of it is low for next 36-48hrs there after I'll give it medium to low for now
And if I got this correct John Hope did say if it's got convection there is always a possibility



It's dead dude.
Quoting 270. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's dead dude.
We're hoping for the zombie TD ....
The Atlantic might be quiet again, but that cannot be said for the West Pacific where two more typhoons are expected to develop over the next week...at the same time. With their origins from the monsoon trough, it might take a while for these systems to develop, but monsoonal storms typically end up large and powerful if given a favorable environment (which should be the case here given massive upper-level ridging). It'll be interesting to see if these two features can gain enough distance to become potent typhoons by themselves, or if they're too close and one absorbs the other.

Quoting 270. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's dead dude.


Wow. Now that you're 17 you think you can call people "Dude". I miss the old days when you called us Sir! :)
West Hills, Los Angeles, California (PWS)
Updated: 5:41 PM PDT on July 23, 2014
Clear
99.7 °F
Clear
Humidity: 21%
Dew Point: 53 °F
Wind: 5.1 mph from the NNW
Pressure: 29.85 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 97 °F

High was 101F, Guess TimSoCal Melted....
No Two Seasons Are Ever Alike
Quoting 273. Grothar:



Wow. Now that you're 17 you think you can call people "Dude". I miss the old days when you called us Sir! :)


lol
Off topic but I just witnessed one of the best shelf clouds I've seen in years here in New Jersey.

This is why I do this stuff.
Quoting 273. Grothar:



Wow. Now that you're 17 you think you can call people "Dude". I miss the old days when you called us Sir! :)

Sorry sir. ;)

Quoting 278. wxgeek723:

Off topic but I just witnessed one of the best shelf clouds I've seen in years here in New Jersey.

This is why I do this stuff.

Do what stuff? And why is a post about a weather feature "off topic"?
Quoting 278. wxgeek723:

Off topic but I just witnessed one of the best shelf clouds I've seen in years here in New Jersey.

This is why I do this stuff.

Did you take a picture?
severe weather warning for new York city!!
Vertical instability. Unseemly even for this part of the season. Almost non-existant



Quoting 275. Grothar:




I see more new t.storms with ex-t.d 2
Quoting PedleyCA:

Did you take a picture?


I noticed it too late. I have a picture but it's from a bad angle.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sorry sir. ;)


Do what stuff? And why is a post about a weather feature "off topic"?


Follow the weather, silly. And well it doesn't pertain to the topic of the zombie storm.
Quoting 274. PedleyCA:

West Hills, Los Angeles, California (PWS)
Updated: 5:41 PM PDT on July 23, 2014
Clear
99.7 °F
Clear
Humidity: 21%
Dew Point: 53 °F
Wind: 5.1 mph from the NNW
Pressure: 29.85 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 97 °F

High was 101F, Guess TimSoCal Melted....


Ha! Nearly. My insides melted instead, does that count? :(
Quoting 273. Grothar:



Wow. Now that you're 17 you think you can call people "Dude". I miss the old days when you called us Sir! :)


Pardon me, Ma'am?

@NWSNewYorkNY

A severe thunderstorm warning and special marine warning in effect for parts of NYC, Northeast NJ and nearby waters
Quoting 285. TimSoCal:



Ha! Nearly. My insides melted instead, does that count? :(


Well, I was joking. We can't have anyone melting, unless
Quoting 288. PedleyCA:



Well, I was joking. We can't have anyone melting, unless


Witches are people, too.
Quoting 240. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It doesn't look like this heralded pattern change across the Atlantic is going to occur anytime soon. The ECMWF shows numerous upper-level lows moving across the Atlantic over the next 240 hours. The NASA GEOS-5 model has plenty of SAL moving off Africa as well.


The MJO is going to be in the basin in a few days and lasting until early-mid August according to models, so there's potential for development in the GOM/Western Caribbean/South east coast & Bahamas. We may possibly see another CV type system from the stronger waves coming off of Africa too.
Quoting 289. KoritheMan:



Witches are people, too.

That was a make believe witch, doesn't count....
Quoting 292. PedleyCA:


That was a make believe witch, doesn't count....


Lies.


severe weather for new York city!!
Quoting 272. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Atlantic might be quiet again, but that cannot be said for the West Pacific where two more typhoons are expected to develop over the next week...at the same time. With their origins from the monsoon trough, it might take a while for these systems to develop, but monsoonal storms typically end up large and powerful if given a favorable environment (which should be the case here given massive upper-level ridging). It'll be interesting to see if these two features can gain enough distance to become potent typhoons by themselves, or if they're too close and one absorbs the other.



And if one recurves, yet another cool air intrusion into the central U.S
296. txjac
Good evening, morning, afternoon all,

I've had a really busy day so I haven't had the opportunity to go through all posts ...so if this has been posted before I apologize in advance.

I just thought this article was totally cool ...and can see some of you getting that 80 year award in the future!

Edit ...found that nifty article in one of my old home town newspapers! Didn't live in Sandusky but in a village near by

Link

At 101, weather observer gets a place in the sun
Tigerosee check your wundermail, I have a personal and sincere message for you.
Quoting 297. ncstorm:






It'll be interesting how well the trough survives. It's still pretty sharp for now, so if it stays that way and eventually finds itself in a better environment, it won't take long to close off a circulation again.
Quoting 299. TimSoCal:



It'll be interesting how well the trough survives. It's still pretty sharp for now, so if it stays that way and eventually finds itself in a better environment, it won't take long to close off a circulation again.


It has a hot date with Hispaniola.
Quoting 292. PedleyCA:


That was a make believe witch, doesn't count....


The Witch also didn't cause destruction or hit Florida

so doesn't count lol
-298-Climate, back at ya;-)
Quoting 294. hurricanes2018:



severe weather for new York city!!


i got hit by heavy rain and lightning coming back from my doctor at 930 pm!
Quoting 303. Tigerosee:

-298-Climate, back at ya;-)
:)
I still think the Atlantic will churn out at least 3 named storms in August, with at least one additional hurricane to add to our tally.

Upward MJO poised to arrive soon, possible east coast upper air ridging (blocking would be better but we'll take what we can get), and climatology*. Most of this development should occur in the WATL region from north of Hispaniola westward to the Gulf of Mexico, including the Bahamas.

*Always the most useful forecasting parameter beyond two weeks.


great video!!! watch this video!!
Quoting 306. KoritheMan:

I still think the Atlantic will churn out at least 3 named storms in August, with at least one additional hurricane to add to our tally.

Upward MJO poised to arrive soon, possible east coast upper air ridging (blocking would be better but we'll take what we can get), and climatology.* Most of this development should occur in the WATL region from north of Hispaniola westward to the Gulf of Mexico, including the Bahamas.

*Always the most useful forecasting parameter beyond two weeks.


I always read WATL as Waddle.

Little wave behind ex-TD2




updated image of ex TD2

Today was pretty active, though that's an odd direction of movement for the Arkansas storms.

Quoting 290. Envoirment:



The MJO is going to be in the basin in a few days and lasting until early-mid August according to models, so there's potential for development in the GOM/Western Caribbean/South east coast & Bahamas. We may possibly see another CV type system from the stronger waves coming off of Africa too.

Maybe. The MJO doesn't cure wind shear though. Both of our hurricanes last year - Humberto and Ingrid - came with the aid of the MJO.

Hi and bye...guess I'll wait and see what cooks up.
Quoting 310. Astrometeor:

Today was pretty active, though that's an odd direction of movement for the Arkansas storms.



My family called me and told me that the airport nearby recorded winds of 50 to 60 mph near Tyler, Texas.
Quoting 311. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Maybe. The MJO doesn't cure wind shear though. Both of our hurricanes last year - Humberto and Ingrid - came with the aid of the MJO.




Wind shear seems to be low-moderate in the areas I stated for the most part looking at the GFS, except maybe the Western Caribbean, in the long run. SAL should become less of a problem with the wave train starting to go into full gear and the MJO should help with the issue of sinking air. Also to note, TD2 formed in a "downward" phase of the MJO, so I'm expecting 1-2 systems to pop up whilst the "upward" phases are in the basin.


!!!!!!!
Quoting 273. Grothar:



Wow. Now that you're 17 you think you can call people "Dude". I miss the old days when you called us Sir! :)

I do to
But with us Brits normally Sir is left for those who have been knighted by Her Majesty the Queen or high ranking members (Staff Officers) of HM Armed Forces

But either way dude are for fellow teens and may be used for general use amongst young Adults
In UK and Austraila we use mate as general term for most age group except middle to late adulthood



Back to the weather

Quoting 297. ncstorm:




Quoting 299. TimSoCal:



It'll be interesting how well the trough survives. It's still pretty sharp for now, so if it stays that way and eventually finds itself in a better environment, it won't take long to close off a circulation again.
Quoting 300. Grothar:


Quoting 301. KoritheMan:



It has a hot date with Hispaniola.


It's not looking too bad at this hour

Not Hispaniola well not E or Central Hispaniola
According to what the models had in play plus the obvious more westerly movement more like Haiti and Jamaica


Martinique and Dominica... likely St. Lucia too... maybe Grenada and Guadeloupe get lucky later...

Glad to see at least some rain likely to fall in the area.
318. Relix
Quoting 316. wunderkidcayman:


I do to
But with us Brits normally Sir is left for those who have been knighted by Her Majesty the Queen or high ranking members (Staff Officers) of HM Armed Forces

But either way dude are for fellow teens and may be used for general use amongst young Adults
In UK and Austraila we use mate as general term for most age group except middle to late adulthood



Back to the weather



It's not looking too bad at this hour

Not Hispaniola well not W or Central Hispaniola
According to what the models had in play plus the obvious more westerly movement more like Haiti and Jamaica


Guess its hitting the Cayman's if its going between Haiti and Jamaica. Obviously.
Haiti IS western Hispaniola....
Quoting 309. Grothar:

Little wave behind ex-TD2




updated image of ex TD2



Thank for pointing that out I saw that
It might become next invest depending on how it develops more convection and organize them
Condition do seem better suited for it
Quoting 318. Relix:



Guess its hitting the Cayman's if its going between Haiti and Jamaica. Obviously.

Well them models did have it in our area some time between 96-120hrs
It just depends of if it redevelops and how strong it gets if it redevelops and becomes stronger then it would be more crossing SW Haiti missing Jamaica either passing on S coast of Cuba E of the Cayman area or over it and maybe into Bahamas
If it redevelops but stay weak or don't even redevelop then it will pass S of Haiti over or N of Jamaica then into the Cayman area then Yucatan or NW Cuba

Quoting 319. BahaHurican:

Haiti IS western Hispaniola....

Sorry I meant Eastern Hispaniola fixed it
Quoting 312. Chicklit:

Hi and bye...guess I'll wait and see what cooks up.

Dry air getting squeezed.
Quoting 312. Chicklit:

Hi and bye...guess I'll wait and see what cooks up.

Use a crock pot...
The Weather Prediction Center has released their review of the early January Arctic outbreak and snowstorm across the Central and East United States.

Of note, "An average temperature of 17.9°F on 6 January across the contiguous U.S. was the
coldest since 12-13 January, 1997 and ranked the 40th coldest day on record since 1900 (Figure
2). Such readings were achieved without much snowpack or optimal radiational cooling effects
given vast cloud cover and gusty winds. Rather it was driven by strong cold advection as
evidenced by the sub -18°F 850-hPa temperatures across much of the north-central U.S. on 6
January. As noted by the sharp pressure gradient, windy conditions led to some dangerously low
wind chills. During the event, wind chill readings plunged as low as the -60s Fahrenheit across
the Northern High Plains. All and all, the arctic outbreak led to widespread impacts but was
generally short-lived. The lobe of the polar vortex which crossed the Great Lakes quickly lifted
northeastward into Quebec."

Link
Quoting 314. Envoirment:



Wind shear seems to be low-moderate in the areas I stated for the most part looking at the GFS, except maybe the Western Caribbean, in the long run. SAL should become less of a problem with the wave train starting to go into full gear and the MJO should help with the issue of sinking air. Also to note, TD2 formed in a "downward" phase of the MJO, so I'm expecting 1-2 systems to pop up whilst the "upward" phases are in the basin.

The MJO may have been in the downward phase during the development of TD TWO, but what's called a convectively-coupled kelvin wave was traversing the East Atlantic. These provide locally enhanced upper-level divergence. It's one of the reasons the wave that TD Two developed from actually formed instead of dying like the preceding ones did and the subsequent ones should.
Quoting 309. Grothar:

Little wave behind ex-TD2




updated image of ex TD2


Did the wave behind 2 get nil'd as well? May as well go buy one get one... Save us the troublr.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MONTANA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 830 PM
UNTIL 300 AM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF CUT BANK MONTANA TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
GLASGOW MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
329. beell
02Z Saint Lucia (10PM AST)
Wind: E 21/G 33
Temp: 77°F
Dp: 75°F
Showers, rain and breezy
Eastern Caribbean Surface Obs
Quoting 310. Astrometeor:

Today was pretty active, though that's an odd direction of movement for the Arkansas storms.



The Death Ridge controls all.



Quoting 318. Relix:



Guess its hitting the Cayman's if its going between Haiti and Jamaica. Obviously.
Both JA and the Caymans could benefit from this if it could actually hang together enough to bring some precipitation. There was an ULL in the area though, that was helping to keep the surface very stable...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Well them models did have it in our area some time between 96-120hrs
It just depends of if it redevelops and how strong it gets if it redevelops and becomes stronger then it would be more crossing SW Haiti missing Jamaica either passing on S coast of Cuba E of the Cayman area or over it and maybe into Bahamas
If it redevelops but stay weak or don't even redevelop then it will pass S of Haiti over or N of Jamaica then into the Cayman area then Yucatan or NW Cuba

Please, for the love of everything holy, use some punctuation. I gave up trying to understand that on the third read.
333. beell
Unfortunately, the John Hope rule will apply- if the system isn't developed by the time it gets into the eastern Carib, it is toast. Hopefully this wave paves the way for the one behind it to do something.
Quoting 332. sar2401:


Please, for the love of everything holy, use some punctuation. I gave up trying to understand that on the third read.


Hey, "Dude." Chill! :)
Quoting 333. beell:


Subtropical jet be kicking soon!
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, "Dude." Chill! :)

LOL. Maybe all the punctuation keys are broken...or something. :-)
Quoting 321. wunderkidcayman:


Well them models did have it in our area some time between 96-120hrs
It just depends of if it redevelops and how strong it gets if it redevelops and becomes stronger then it would be more crossing SW Haiti missing Jamaica either passing on S coast of Cuba E of the Cayman area or over it and maybe into Bahamas
If it redevelops but stay weak or don't even redevelop then it will pass S of Haiti over or N of Jamaica then into the Cayman area then Yucatan or NW Cuba


Sorry I meant Eastern Hispaniola fixed it
Correct name is Ayiti, but they don't teach that in globally correct school. East coast first nation have a lot of cousins because they like the opposite sex and are not afraid of travel. 20 hours has passed and it will get past the Antilles as a diurnal blob to be reckoned with.
339. beell
Quoting 335. Grothar:



Hey, "Dude." Chill! :)


Let's eat Grandma!
Quoting 339. beell:



Let's eat Grandma!


341. beell
Quoting 336. Climate175:

Subtropical jet be kicking soon!


Kicking around the big western ridge at present and near future.
:)
Should see some increase in vertical instability in the Atlantic this week.



Long way to go however.

Quoting 339. beell:



Let's eat Grandma!


LOL beel



An English professor wrote the words, “Woman without her man is nothing” on the blackboard and directed his students to punctuate it correctly.

The men wrote: “Woman, without her man, is nothing.”

The women wrote: “Woman: Without her, man is nothing.”
Quoting 341. beell:



Kicking around the big western ridge at present and near future.
:)
No snowmageddon? LOL
Northern Hemisphere On Fire: Large Smoke Clouds Still Blanketing World’s Roof

After days and, in some cases, weeks of ongoing burning, immense fires still raged over the Northwest Territory, the US Northwest and Russia today as massive clouds of smoke continued to spread over the Northern Hemisphere.

Link
GFS 144hrs 500MB. That's a big trough this time of year.

Quoting sar2401:

Please, for the love of everything holy, use some punctuation. I gave up trying to understand that on the third read.


I tried reading it and gave up. Makes no sense.
349. beell
Quoting 343. Grothar:



LOL beel



An English professor wrote the words, “Woman without her man is nothing” on the blackboard and directed his students to punctuate it correctly.

The men wrote: “Woman, without her man, is nothing.”

The women wrote: “Woman: Without her, man is nothing.”



Never thought we could get whipped by a colon, Gro!!

Last one for me for the night:

"You can kiss my wife but only I can take her to bed and make her laugh".
:)

91E's structure is continuing to improve based on microwave imagery.

Quoting 348. jrweatherman:



I tried reading it and gave up. Makes no sense.


Try a James Joyce novel sometime.
Quoting 350. TropicalAnalystwx13:

91E's structure is continuing to improve based on microwave imagery.




Reported, For: being off-topic.

:D (punctuation)
Quoting Grothar:


Try a James Joyce novel sometime.


Excellent writer and pretty good poet. He was also a Jesuit.
Quoting 352. Astrometeor:



Reported, For: being off-topic.

:D (punctuation)
'

You can really see the moisture field expanding.
Quoting 353. jrweatherman:



Excellent writer and pretty good poet. He was also a Jesuit.


Not a very good one.
Other wave coming into view.

We need some rain....

Quoting 348. jrweatherman:



I tried reading it and gave up. Makes no sense.
I understood it, and he did make perfect sense, but I can translate pigeon.
Quoting 356. Grothar:


NIL'd wave get fatter bring rain to indians on islands.
Quoting 356. Grothar:

I think TD2 spreading N to S covering most of the islands with rain they need is a Godsend.

Best possible 'RIP' ending we could hope for.
Just a personal opinion but I think 02 will have more to offer down the road. Weak, whatever, it's tenacious. Seems like one of those waves that if you give it a spot it's on.
Quoting 361. ProgressivePulse:

Just a personal opinion but I think 02 will have more to offer down the road. Weak, whatever, it's tenacious. Seems like one of those waves that if you give it a spot it's on.


And a speedy one, at that, avg 16mph sprint across the Atlantic.
Quoting 331. BahaHurican:

Both JA and the Caymans could benefit from this if it could actually hang together enough to bring some precipitation. There was an ULL in the area though, that was helping to keep the surface very stable...

Yes, certainly we are in bad need of heavy rain to get us out of drought, plus some gusty wind with the rain will help with the unusual heat we've been having.

Quoting 338. Pallis1:

Correct name is Ayiti, but they don't teach that in globally correct school. East coast first nation have a lot of cousins because they like the opposite sex and are not afraid of travel. 20 hours has passed and it will get past the Antilles as a diurnal blob to be reckoned with.

Interesting, the way the American and us Brits pronounce it as well. Americans say "Hay-Tea" while us Brits say "Hi-A-Tee".

And guys.
Sorry about the punctuation that gets missed out in my text.

Quoting 356. Grothar:

Other wave coming into view.



Both not looking too bad at this hour, some just might say its decent.

Quoting 357. sunlinepr:

We need some rain....



You ain't the only one.

364. VR46L
Quoting 353. jrweatherman:



Excellent writer and pretty good poet. He was also a Jesuit.


You might want to check that fact on being a Jesuit , from what I recall Joyce was married to Nora and loathed God and had a patronizing attitude towards those who believed.

I had to read Portrait at 16 and detested nearly every bit except for the Icarus comparison. That I got !
0z GFS Surface pressure (mb) and 10m wind speed (kt) valid 186 hours (18z Thursday 7/31/14)

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 364. VR46L:



You might want to check that fact on being a Jesuit , from what I recall Joyce was married to Nora and loathed God and had a patronizing attitude towards those believed.

I had to read Portrait at 16 and detested nearly every bit except for the Icarus comparison. That I got !


The issue of Joyce's relationship with religion is somewhat controversial.
Wikipedia

I don't think I've ever had to read his works, good thing too, don't like poetry and whatnot, even though I write some from time to time.
Hello Everyone, 91E looks fairly well with rotation occurring in that convection. Let's see if it develops...



Synopsis for Eastern Pacific and other basins:Link