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Category 3 Typhoon Rammasun hits the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:43 PM GMT on July 15, 2014

Category 3 Typhoon Rammasun powered ashore in the Philippines in the Bicol Region of Luzon Island near 5 am EDT on Tuesday, bringing sustained winds near 125 mph and torrential rains. Rammasun was the first typhoon to strike the Philippines since devastating Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013, which left over 7,300 people dead or missing. Rammasun's eye passed just north of Samar Island where Haiyan initially made landfall, and brought sustained winds of 40 mph to Haiyan's ground zero, the city of Guiuan. The storm's main fury was felt farther to the north, though, on the southeastern portion of Luzon Island. Rammasun passed just north of Legaspi on Luzon, dropping the pressure to 966 mb near 10 UTC. Maximum sustained winds were 52 mph, and 7.13" of rain fell. Storm chaser James Reynolds is in Legaspi, and tweeted at 3:35 am EDT, "Big mall we're in being shredded, front breaking off into sea. We're safe surrounded by lots of concrete!"


Figure 1. In this MODIS image from 05 UTC July 15, 2014, Category 2 Typhoon Rammasun is enveloping virtually all of the Philippine Islands. Image credit: NASA.

Rammasun was intensifying rapidly as it approached landfall, and it is a good thing that interaction with land was able to halt this process when it did. The Japan Meteorological Agency put Rammasun's central pressure at 965mb at 06Z (2am EDT) Tuesday, then dropped it to 945mb at 09Z (5am EDT) as the storm was making landfall. The pressure rose to 950 mb by 12Z (8 am EDT) after the eye of the storm had spent three hours over land, but the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) still rated the storm at Category 3 strength with 125 mph winds. Satellite loops show the typhoon has weakened since landfall: the eye is much less distinct, and the heavy thunderstorms now have warmer cloud tops. Philippines radar shows the typhoon is bringing very heavy rains to much of Luzon, including the capital of Manila, where 12 million people live. Flooding is already occurring in Manila, and flood and wind damage in the city have to potential to make Rammasun one of the top ten most expensive natural disasters in Philippine history. According to NOAA's historical hurricane web page, the strongest typhoon ever to make a direct hit on Manila was Typhoon Angela of 1995, which was a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 when it passed over the city (sustained winds of 90 - 105 mph, according to JTWC's annual report).


Figure 2. Rainfall rate of Typhoon Rammasun as estimated by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) instrument on the DMSP F-17 polar orbiting satellite at 5:12 am EDT Tuesday July 15, 2014. Rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hour (orange colors) were indicated in the eyewall of the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

After crossing Luzon, Rammasun will have the opportunity to re-strengthen over the South China Sea before making a second landfall in China near Hainan Island on Friday. Our two top track models, the GFS and European, predict a landfall in China between 03 - 12 UTC on Friday. Rammasun, which has a different name, "Glenda", in the Philippines, is a Siamese word of thunder god.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 438. sar2401:


.. However, the media just loves the "polar vortex" ...

Actually JAX NWS is using the term...
"THIS EVENING IS WHEN IT GETS MORE INTERESTING AS THE...WELL
ADVERTISED POLAR VORTEX...DROPS SOUTHWARD IT IS PUSHING A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT."

Oh my first ever "first" lol.
Thanks Dr. Masters. Repost from the last blog.

The new 15z JTWC warning upped Rammasun's winds to 110kts. I wonder what they think the peak was then, it certainly isn't at peak intensity now because of land disruption.



They also forecast it to get even stronger in the South China Sea, up to 120kts, before its second landfall. We'll have to see how badly the land interaction now ends up hurting it. If it makes out alright, and so far it is, that could certainly be attainable.
If there was a hurricane out there coming towards the U.S how would the polar vortex effect its path
From previous blog

Quoting 438. sar2401:

That was not the most coherent explanation of a cold front I've ever seen. However, the media just loves the "polar vortex" and they're not going to let it die. Any temperatures below normal will be caused by a "polar vortex" just like they always have been except we didn't call it a "polar vortex". Cold front just doesn't sound very ominous.


I just don't agree with CBS paying a physicist to explain the weather. With all the meteorologists available that work for their network and affiliates, why would you do that. Last time I checked, Bri Wi always goes to TWC for any weather explanation or forecast. NBC of course owns TWC, so why wouldn't you use your own trusted sources. On top of that, Dr. Kaku is dead wrong about the reasoning for the cool air, and no it's not like a tornado.
Quoting 3. weatherman994:

If there was a hurricane out there coming towards the U.S how would the polar vortex effect its path


Likely the front would push it east.
Quoting 448. MahFL:


Actually JAX NWS is using the term...
"THIS EVENING IS WHEN IT GETS MORE INTERESTING AS THE...WELL
ADVERTISED POLAR VORTEX...DROPS SOUTHWARD IT IS PUSHING A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT."


I don't think NWS Jax was using the term Polar Vortex as a means to describe something, they we're using it because that's what the media has been calling it lately. To them it is simply an upper low.
Quoting Chucktown:
From previous blog

Quoting 438. sar2401:

That was not the most coherent explanation of a cold front I've ever seen. However, the media just loves the "polar vortex" and they're not going to let it die. Any temperatures below normal will be caused by a "polar vortex" just like they always have been except we didn't call it a "polar vortex". Cold front just doesn't sound very ominous.


I just don't agree with CBS paying a physicist to explain the weather. With all the meteorologists available that work for their network and affiliates, why would you do that. Last time I checked, Bri Wi always goes to TWC for any weather explanation or forecast. NBC of course owns TWC, so why wouldn't you use your own trusted sources. On top of that, Dr. Kaku is dead wrong about the reasoning for the cool air, and no it's not like a tornado.

You lost me on that one. What does CBS have to do with NBC and TWC? No, it's not like a tornado, but explaining a cold front is just too boring.
From last entry....
Quoting 366. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. While not subject to development, SAL has backed-off a little bit along the Atlantic ITCZ and has allowed a few waves to keep their composure while crossing the Atlantic. Good example of what happens going into August when the SAL lifts just above the 10N mark allowing some of the waves to form into tropical depressions during the crossing. You will note from the image below that while NW Africa remains pretty dry at the moment, it is a little greener this week to the East of the Cape Verde islands:




I've noticed a few more clouds / showers over the Saharan the past few days, perhaps this has weakened the SAL. I'm not too read up on the correlation between SAL and N. Saharan precipitation.
hopefully by now manillians know what part of town flood and have gotten their vehicles and possessions out
Quoting 9. islander101010:

hopefully by now manillians know what part of town flood and have gotten their vehicles and possessions out

Likely they went to work as normal.
Quoting MahFL:


Likely the front would push it east.


An example of a frontal boundary's affect on a hurricanes path is Hurricane Charley. Hurricane Charley made a hard right turn into S.W. Florida (note front across N.E. GOM).


Strong October frontal boundary pushing Hurricane Wilma eastward into S. Florida.



Quoting boltdwright:


I don't think NWS Jax was using the term Polar Vortex as a means to describe something, they we're using it because that's what the media has been calling it lately. To them it is simply an upper low.

Apparently the NWS doesn't have a national policy on this but at least one regional office (the Central region, IIRC) sent an e-mail telling forecasters to belay using "polar vortex" to describe this front. The whole thing is just silly. This is not an unprecedented outbreak of cold air. It happens with reasonable frequency during July. I'm still waiting down here in Alabama.
Thank you Dr Masters

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Tue, 15 Jul 8:05 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Tue, 15 Jul 7:50 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
15 Jul 7:50 am PDT 72 58 61 ESE 2G05 OK
"President Benigno Aquino stressed to civil defence officials in Manila on Tuesday that people in the typhoon's path must be made to understand the dangers facing them"

That's part of the problem right there, the people it seems don't fully understand the danger, and that's putting it kindly.
Quoting 12. sar2401:


Apparently the NWS doesn't have a national policy on this but at least one regional office (the Central region, IIRC) sent an e-mail telling forecasters to belay using "polar vortex" to describe this front. The whole thing is just silly. This is not an unprecedented outbreak of cold air. It happens with reasonable frequency during July. I'm still waiting down here in Alabama.


You're correct, I don't think the NWS ever uses media terms to describe systems. For example, when TWC names winter storms, the NWS typically will never call them by their name. I know my local NWS doesn't use these terms.
A stormy day on the south east coast of Florida today.
It's inaccurate to describe the upper-level low dropping down into the United States as the polar vortex, but seeing as those this disturbance did originate from the Arctic region, it's not inaccurate to call it a piece of the polar vortex.

This graphic from NWS New York, though from last winter, still applies today:

Quoting 12. sar2401:


Apparently the NWS doesn't have a national policy on this but at least one regional office (the Central region, IIRC) sent an e-mail telling forecasters to belay using "polar vortex" to describe this front. The whole thing is just silly. This is not an unprecedented outbreak of cold air. It happens with reasonable frequency during July. I'm still waiting down here in Alabama.

Yes, the Central Region sent out that email. Not because calling this a piece of the polar vortex is wrong, but because calling it such may cause people to associate the impacts expected this week to the impacts observed when most heard about it this past winter. Impact over technicality in the NWS' eyes (though I don't see the issue in calling it what it is...)
19. jpsb
From the last entry

Quoting 428. georgevandenberghe:



Cold fronts get to the Gulf Coast most Julys but are little more than weak windshift lines by the time they get there. Some years a real, can't deny it cold front does cross the Gulf Coast and drying and slight cooling is noticable. Cold fronts make it to the upper south most summers several times a month.

This cool outbreak in 2014 will set a few records but has a lot of precedents, in particular July 1975. Weather watchers need to remember that "rare" is not the same as either "unique" or "never"


I thought this an interesting topic so I researched and found this

A ten year study counted 9 cold fronts reaching the GoM in July. So I say you are correct in saying it is not "rare". Hoping this one reaches me on the Texas Gulf Coast.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, the Central Region sent out that email. Not because calling this a piece of the polar vortex is wrong, but because calling it such may cause people to associate the impacts expected this week to the impacts observed when most heard about it this past winter. Impact over technicality in the NWS' eyes (though I don't see the issue in calling it what it is...)

What strong cold front isn't a "polar vortex"? It's wrong because we are applying a new name to something which has always happened in the past and will always happen in the future. At this rate, we're going to have a "polar vortex" once a month.

EDIT: Calling a summer cold front a "polar vortex" also weakens the impact of the name when it's used to describe a dangerously cold winter event. I think that's what the Central Region said and I agree. This strong cold front is annoying if you want to go to the pool. It's not dangerous.
This hurricane drought in FL really is incredible, I don't see how it can hold any longer than through next year.
Bizzaro weather-related news item:

http://thevane.gawker.com/weather-hoaxer-threaten s-facebook-after-it-takes-down-h-1604875212/+lacey donohue

The fake weather reports/warnings remind me of someone from this site many years ago. :)
Typhoon Glenda finding her way.
Quoting 1. MahFL:


Actually JAX NWS is using the term...
"THIS EVENING IS WHEN IT GETS MORE INTERESTING AS THE...WELL
ADVERTISED POLAR VORTEX...DROPS SOUTHWARD IT IS PUSHING A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT."

Oh my first ever "first" lol.

The scary thing is, July of 2004 had cold intrusions like this.

I remember it was long sleeve-jeans weather when i moved to the St. Louis area at that time (40's or 50's is what it felt like). Moving from FL, I thought "Ughh!! this must be what it's like all the time here in the Midwest."

But then again, we were in our shorts and t-shirts on halloween playing outside.
from previous blog

Quoting 438. sar2401:

That was not the most coherent explanation of a cold front I've ever seen. However, the media just loves the "polar vortex" and they're not going to let it die. Any temperatures below normal will be caused by a "polar vortex" just like they always have been except we didn't call it a "polar vortex". Cold front just doesn't sound very ominous



When you have TWC calling it a "polar vortex" and even Dr. Masters referenced it yesterday, the media is going to latch on. It's catchy and it sells.

Quoting sflmike:
A stormy day on the south east coast of Florida today.
A little stormier on the S/W coast of FL.
 
like a train.
Quoting 454. georgevandenberghe:

Although 1816 was called the year without a summer growing conditions were okay MOST of the time. What made it so bad was markedly stronger than normal cold outbreaks intespersed with longer periods of typical summer weather. The cold outbreaks caused freezes in extensive areas that normally grew crops. The cold outbreaks caused summer temperatures to average well below normal but not so cold that summer crops could not get sufficient growing degree day accumulations in the extensive regions that did not quite freeze. Southeast Canada, near Quebec as well as much of New England reported good crop prospects until an early and abnormally severe frost in September, a continuation of the abnormally severe cold outbreaks, wiped out large areas that had survived the summer. To get to that point though required a summer without frost.

A similar but less severe analog occurred in 1992.

The difference between human emissions and volcanic eruptions is that sulfates from the former don't reach the stratosphere and there remain with a half life of about a year. The human volcano hypothesis was examined in the 70s and did have some merit but has been overwhelmed by greenhouse gas releases since, combined with a reduction in particulate emissions by first world countries.


I think that we may be seeing a re-play of the impacts of sulfate emissions of the 1970's. You mention the claim that more recent CO2 emissions have overwhelmed the sulfate emissions. Well, the other change from the 1970's thru the 1990's was the reduction in sulfate emissions in the developed countries as controls on sulfate emissions were placed on coal fired power plants. China is now the largest consumer of coal and I suspect that they don't use the technology available to capture the sulfate. Ditto for emissions from India and perhaps also for the nations of the FSU. Back to the future, as they say.

As China's wealth continues to increase, it's likely that they will follow along with efforts to limit these emissions. I suggest that the so-called "pause" in Global Warming will then vanish and the warming trend will return.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/midwest- to-feel-septemberlike/30357926
Seems like things are slowly getting more favorable in the Atlantic. Once we get a little into August, I reckon the switch will be turned on.

And I think the big questions is: "Will Arthur be an anomaly for the rest of this season, or will we be further surprised by hurricanes threatening the coast?"
Why isn't anyone talking about the surface low that is developing near 27n and 68w? Dry air and wind shear is still a problem, but they both should be letting up, latest SAL update shows little to no dry air present near the surface low. Wind shear is still moderate 10-20 knots.
Here, in Scotland, we just call it 'summer'.
The dog that didn't bark....

The big story in weather that seems to get no media attention in the West is the 40% shortfall in rainfall in India this monsoon season. While Lake Mead is at a record low level, CA is plundering its groundwater reserves and 40 million Americans are dependent upon sketchy water supplies, that number approaches a billion in India.

Eric Holthaus writing in Slate has this:


I’ve written previously that the Indian monsoon is the most important weather forecast in the world,
and for good reason: Half the country’s 1.25 billion people are engaged
in agriculture, and 70 percent of annual rains come between June and
September. Irrigation is expanding, but most farmers still need the
rains to have a successful harvest. There’s no larger group of people in
the world more dependent on a single weather phenomenon.




Quoting opal92nwf:

The scary thing is, July of 2004 had cold intrusions like this.

I remember it was long sleeve-jeans weather when i moved to the St. Louis area at that time (40's or 50's is what it felt like). Moving from FL, I thought "Ughh!! this must be what it's like all the time here in the Midwest."

But then again, we were in our shorts and t-shirts on halloween playing outside.


I remember my first summer at Penn State being reminded that June there is not a summer month. (July and August are)
Getting EXTREMELY close lightning right now!
Just as advertised a piece of the Polar Vortex has moved into the Midwest in the middle of summer and tonight looks very cold across the midwest for July standards.

Here's a piece from Weatherbell this morning.

TUESDAY CENTRAL/GREAT LAKES UPDATE: JULY 15, 2014 - THE CHILL IS ON
Quoting yonzabam:
Here, in Scotland, we just call it 'summer'.


One of the English Kings described the typical British summer
as
"Three fine days and a thunderstorm"


Quoting 37. georgevandenberghe:



One of the English Kings described the typical British summer
as
"Three fine days and a thunderstorm"





I have experienced a few of those summers in the UK.
39. JRRP

now we are talking... el niño is coming
Quoting 33. rayduray2013:

The dog that didn't bark....

The big story in weather that seems to get no media attention in the West is the 40% shortfall in rainfall in India this monsoon season. While Lake Mead is at a record low level, CA is plundering its groundwater reserves and 40 million Americans are dependent upon sketchy water supplies, that number approaches a billion in India.

Eric Holthaus writing in Slate has this:


I’ve written previously that the Indian monsoon is the most important weather forecast in the world,
and for good reason: Half the country’s 1.25 billion people are engaged
in agriculture, and 70 percent of annual rains come between June and
September. Irrigation is expanding, but most farmers still need the
rains to have a successful harvest. There’s no larger group of people in
the world more dependent on a single weather phenomenon.







A 40% shortfall still leaves a heck of a lot of rain irrigating the fields. Do they really need all the rain the monsoon normally brings?
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1027 am EDT Tue Jul 15 2014

Near term [through today]...
a fairly active day of convection is expected with a tropical
airmass in place and a cold front approaching.
Modifying the 12z
ktae sounding for the 14z observed T/TD at the Airport already
shows SBCAPE values near 3000 j/kg, and this is in close agreement
with the Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis. Expect to see a few stronger storms
with gusty winds this afternoon, and an isolated severe storm or
two remains possible. The only changes to the previous forecast
were to add a mention of gusty winds and to tweak pops slightly to
account for the latest radar trends and add some temporal detail.
Expect one batch of storms to move along the coast and across the
Florida zones through the early to mid afternoon, and then a
second batch to develop closer to the front and affect southeast
Alabama and southwest Georgia later this afternoon. This is in
agreement with the cam ensemble.
Nice cell about to hit Nicevile/Valparaiso area.
I have heard that the typhoon that recently hit Japan was partially responsible for the current cool snap in the parts of the US. Can you comment on this? Is the low pressure system currently over Wisconsin part of the remnants of the typhoon?
Quoting 42. opal92nwf:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1027 am EDT Tue Jul 15 2014

Near term [through today]...
a fairly active day of convection is expected with a tropical
airmass in place and a cold front approaching.
Modifying the 12z
ktae sounding for the 14z observed T/TD at the Airport already
shows SBCAPE values near 3000 j/kg, and this is in close agreement
with the Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis. Expect to see a few stronger storms
with gusty winds this afternoon, and an isolated severe storm or
two remains possible. The only changes to the previous forecast
were to add a mention of gusty winds and to tweak pops slightly to
account for the latest radar trends and add some temporal detail.
Expect one batch of storms to move along the coast and across the
Florida zones through the early to mid afternoon, and then a
second batch to develop closer to the front and affect southeast
Alabama and southwest Georgia later this afternoon. This is in
agreement with the cam ensemble.


That cool air gets close to you with low to mid 60's across southern Alabama and southern GA.

Quoting 1. MahFL:


Actually JAX NWS is using the term...
"THIS EVENING IS WHEN IT GETS MORE INTERESTING AS THE...WELL
ADVERTISED POLAR VORTEX...DROPS SOUTHWARD IT IS PUSHING A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT."

Oh my first ever "first" lol.

If they are, then they are not really using it correctly.

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldofweather/no de/2098

Even in our most recent winter, the term was exaggerated and arguably not applicable to all of the times it was used. Now it's summer, when the polar vortex is typically broken down and upper level winds are much weaker than in the winter. So it is likely even less applicable this time of year.
This cool snap is impressive even for the south with low to mid 40's across the Apalachians. Unheard of!

Quoting 46. ScottLincoln:


If they are, then they are not really using it correctly.


Came across numerous NWS offices using the term "Polar Vortex" this morning as many record lows and record high maxes are likely this week across the Central and Southern US.
Typhoon Glenda seems to be getting its second wind before it passes very near to Manila.
Quoting 24. opal92nwf:


The scary thing is, July of 2004 had cold intrusions like this.

I remember it was long sleeve-jeans weather when i moved to the St. Louis area at that time (40's or 50's is what it felt like). Moving from FL, I thought "Ughh!! this must be what it's like all the time here in the Midwest."

But then again, we were in our shorts and t-shirts on halloween playing outside.


Yep, but not as intense as what we are seeing now. To get this cool of an airmass in July is very rare.

Quoting yonzabam:


A 40% shortfall still leaves a heck of a lot of rain irrigating the fields. Do they really need all the rain the monsoon normally brings?
You are in Scotland, eh? A 40% shortfall there, to my understanding, would most years be a blessing. Only the salmon would suffer while the humans would see the webs between their toes start to disappear.

India is not Scotland. They actually are balanced on a knife's edge as far as water supply vis-a-vis over-population is concerned. There's plenty of info for you if you do the searches. Pinch points include the falling ground water level across northern India, the recent riots over power shortages during extreme heat bouts and failing wells. Don't take my word for it. :)
Quoting 39. JRRP:


now we are talking... el niño is coming
Omg finally.
Quoting 49. PensacolaBuoy:

Typhoon Glenda seems to be getting its second wind before it passes very near to Manila.
It is maintaining its structure very well..
Quoting 45. StormTrackerScott:



That cool air gets close to you with low to mid 60's across southern Alabama and southern GA.



Just far enough south here to probably not really notice much of a change.
Link
Quoting 40. yonzabam:



A 40% shortfall still leaves a heck of a lot of rain irrigating the fields. Do they really need all the rain the monsoon normally brings?


They don't need it all. That picture btw is cropped so we don't know the full context of it.
im thinking polar votex vrs cen fl. heat! should we expect even worse thunderstorms?
Quoting 56. islander101010:

im thinking polar votex vrs cen fl. heat! should we expect even worse thunderstorms?


I don't think it's getting to Central FL.
Quoting 47. StormTrackerScott:

This cool snap is impressive even for the south with low to mid 40's across the Apalachians. Unheard of!
Well, it's definitely cool, and a number of daily record lows have been/will be broken across the region. But it's far from "unheard of". For instance, Charleston, WV, Pittsburgh, PA, and Asheville, NC, have all experienced 40s--and even the 30s--in past summers, with record lows in the 40s throughout July.

At any rate, whether you're a fan or not of such summer cold outbreaks, we can probably expect more and more of these jet stream kinks--and the wild weather they bring--as the Arctic sea ice thermostat continues to disintegrate...
We're getting some nice showers across the East Texas area and it's 71F here in Jasper County - I'll take it!
Looks like the eye of Rammasun might now pass well south of Manilla, forecast track is 21 miles south of the capital.
Thanks for the updates on the Typhoon Dr.  Makes the afternoon t-storms popping up around the SE and Florida look like a walk in the park.  Praying for the folks in the Philippines and hoping for minimal loss of life; property can always be replaced. 
Quoting 46. ScottLincoln:


If they are, then they are not really using it correctly.

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldofweather/no de/2098

Even in our most recent winter, the term was exaggerated and arguably not applicable to all of the times it was used. Now it's summer, when the polar vortex is typically broken down and upper level winds are much weaker than in the winter. So it is likely even less applicable this time of year.


I was just talking about this the meteorologists at Ruskin on Friday, they thought the other offices that have used the "polar vortex" term for this event is crackup, and so do I.
Quoting 35. opal92nwf:

Getting EXTREMELY close lightning right now!


Isn't it an awesome feeling when intense lightning arrives after a long streak of not much?
Quoting 58. Neapolitan:

Well, it's definitely cool, and a number of daily record lows have been/will be broken across the region. But it's far from "unheard of". For instance, Charleston, WV, Pittsburgh, PA, and Asheville, NC, have all experienced 40s--and even the 30s--in past summers, with record lows in the 40s throughout July.

At any rate, whether you're a fan or not of such summer cold outbreaks, we can probably expect more and more of these jet stream kinks--and the wild weather they bring--as the Arctic sea ice thermostat continues to disintegrate...


Why are these jet stream kinks happening over NA and not the rest of the northern hemisphere? Or are they and I'm just not aware it?
Surprising with Rammusan's intensification. I know I said I would be on this morning at 10:37 and I see you posted at 10:43 :) Sorry.




Quoting 63. Jedkins01:



I was just talking about this the meteorologists at Ruskin on Friday, they thought the other offices that have used the "polar vortex" term for this event is crackup, and so do I.


From Doc's post last week.

Extreme heat in Western Canada, unusual coolness in Midwest U.S.
The remnants of Super Typhoon Neoguri, which pushed northeastwards into Alaska after the storm hit Japan last week, set in motion a chain-reaction set of events that has dramatically altered the path of the jet stream and affected weather patterns across the entire Northern Hemisphere. Neoguri caused an acceleration of the North Pacific jet stream, which amplified a trough low pressure over Alaska, causing a ripple effect in the jet stream over western North America, where a strong ridge of high pressure developed. The ridge helped push temperatures as high as 106°F (41.1°C) in British Columbia on Sunday. A compensating strong trough of low pressure formed over the Midwest U.S., and that trough is now pumping cool, polar air southwards into the Upper Midwest. The high temperature in Minneapolis on Monday is predicted to be in the low 60s, about 15°F below average. This jet stream pattern is similar to the nasty "Polar Vortex" pattern that set up during the winter of 2014 over North America, but calling it the polar vortex in this case is not technically correct

Quoting 17. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's inaccurate to describe the upper-level low dropping down into the United States as the polar vortex, but seeing as those this disturbance did originate from the Arctic region, it's not inaccurate to call it a piece of the polar vortex.

This graphic from NWS New York, though from last winter, still applies today:




"is not something in itself dangerous to humans".. True, but there are consequences we shall suffer as the arm air displaces the cold and melts more ice and tundra. Thanks Dr. Masters!
The US can thank Super Typhoon Neoguri from last week for bring all of this cool air to the US during the hottest time of the year for many.

Quoting 32. yonzabam:

Here, in Scotland, we just call it 'summer'.


do you wear panty house under the kilts in winter?
Quoting 7. sar2401:

You lost me on that one. What does CBS have to do with NBC and TWC? No, it's not like a tornado, but explaining a cold front is just too boring.


NBC owns TWC, so whenever they are doing a weather explanation or let's say hurricane forecast on the evening national brodcast, they always go to someone at TWC, whether it's Cantore, Seidel, Bettes, etc. This morning you have CBS going to a physicist to talk about why there is a strong cold front in July. The network has countless mets to go to, why Dr. Kaku. You have at least 3 mets working for WCBS-TV in NYC, why not invite one of them on to talk about the reasoning.
Quoting 65. jrweatherman:



Why are these jet stream kinks happening over NA and not the rest of the northern hemisphere? Or are they and I'm just not aware it?


Good question. The jet stream 'loops' are huge, and have got even larger in recent years, The one that brought intense cold to the eastern US last winter continued over the Atlantic and then looped up to western Europe, bringing record floods and storms to the UK.

In 2010, a very southerly loop summer loop brought a record heat wave, drought and wildfires to Russia and Ukraine, resulting in a reduced wheat harvest, which contributed to rising global food prices, riots and the 'Arab spring'. It carried on eastwards and caused record flooding in Pakistan.

No idea why it should become a regular feature in the US. It will probably shift around the globe.
Quoting 70. indianrivguy:



do you wear panty house under the kilts in winter?


Ach, kilts are only worn at weddings, these days. And by busking bagpipers on Edinburgh's Princes Street, who make good money being photographed with the tourists.

If you're ever over here, you could ask the Edinburgh bagpipers. I'd like to watch that :)
74. IDTH
Looks like the MJO could be returning to the Atlantic.
Quoting 36. JohnLonergan:

June Was 6th Warmest Globally. The Month Brought Raging Wildfires, Brutal Temperatures, and Melting in Greenland



Departures in June from long-term average temperatures are seen in this map from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. (Source: NASA/GISS)
Arctic air may be plunging south into the U.S. midsection this week, but for the globe as a whole, the picture has been quite different recently.



Check out NASA’s latest rendering of the big global picture above. It shows how temperatures departed from the 1951-1980 average in June. The warm colors covering most of the globe attest that June 2014 was quite warm — according to NASA, the sixth warmest in an instrumental record that goes back 134 years.

The map also offers hints of a number of interesting climate-related stories — from raging wildfires to brutal cold. So read on…
Quoting 73. yonzabam:



Ach, kilts are only worn at weddings...


"Highlanders were out in all sorts of weather, bare legged and frequently bare-footed and one of the names given to them was Redshankes - shanksis an old word for legs and the red legs were caused by exposure to the winds, rains and snows of the Highlands"

Don't mess with a Scottish Highlander......
well....the aussies have once again provided us with an update concerning the upcoming el nino....if you said it would happen in july....well...nope....not gonna happen....and the aussie mets are much more cautious in the overview....and have now joined a rather large group of climate scientists and mets just about ruling out a strong event.....you can read the whole thing here....and below is their overview.....

El Niño remains on hold
Issued on Tuesday 15 July 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months primed the climate system for an El Niño in 2014. However, a general lack of atmospheric response over the last month has resulted in some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
While the majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for the spring of 2014, most have eased their predicted strength. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.
Changes are also occurring in the Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below −0.4 °C (the negative IOD threshold) since mid-June, but it would need to remain negative into August to be considered as an event. Negative values are rare when the central Pacific is warmer than average. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is likely to return to neutral by spring. Conditions in the Indian Ocean may have contributed to the above-average rainfall experienced in southeast Australia during June.
El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas of Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over southern Australia. Conversely, a negative IOD pattern typically brings wetter winter and spring conditions to inland and southern Australia.
The ENSO Tracker is updated at the end of each month. It is currently at El Niño ALERT stage.
Quoting 65. jrweatherman:



Why are these jet stream kinks happening over NA and not the rest of the northern hemisphere? Or are they and I'm just not aware it?


They happen all the time. They are responsible for prolonged cold spells in the UK. We normally get one or two of these "kinks" every winter, although last winter was rather warm and we didn't get any from what I remember. The winter of 2010-2011 is a great example - it also included the UK's coldest December on record:

Link

Quoting 72. yonzabam:



Good question. The jet stream 'loops' are huge, and have got even larger in recent years, The one that brought intense cold to the eastern US last winter continued over the Atlantic and then looped up to western Europe, bringing record floods and storms to the UK.

In 2010, a very southerly loop summer loop brought a record heat wave, drought and wildfires to Russia and Ukraine, resulting in a reduced wheat harvest, which contributed to rising global food prices, riots and the 'Arab spring'. It carried on eastwards and caused record flooding in Pakistan.

No idea why it should become a regular feature in the US. It will probably shift around the globe.
Additionally, if you look at Dr Masters' previous blog, you'll notice the amplifications going around the northern hemisphere - troughs alternating with ridges. "Our" eastern North America trough and western North America Ridge happen to be the most amplified now.
Metro Manila now under "Storm Signal No. 3."

Link





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2014 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 13:51:27 N Lon : 122:07:30 E


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE
In Scotland you could of course wear a Scottish Cloak during cold weather.

WV loop still shows a distinct eye feature

as much as i along with others enjoy looking at the daily ENSO region SST anomalies...it's the longer range monthly values that are more important.....and you can see that in both may and june the el nino threshold was crossed.....however i feel july will be under and as such.we would probably cross the threshold again in august and could see el nino called in september...

Monthly sea surface temperatures
The equatorial Pacific continued to warm in the east during June. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for June shows warm anomalies along the entire equator, with further warm anomalies to Australia’s northwest, around much of the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines, as well as along the coastline of North America.


Index May June Temperature change
NINO3 +0.7 +0.9 0.2 °C warmer
NINO3.4 +0.5 +0.6 0.1 °C warmer
NINO4 +0.7 +0.5 0.2 °C cooler
Quoting 60. MahFL:

Looks like the eye of Rammasun might now pass well south of Manilla, forecast track is 21 miles south of the capital.


If that's from the center of a 20 nautical mile wide eye, then that would put Manilla within the worst part of the cyclone
Quoting 85. ILwthrfan:



If that's from the center of a 20 nautical mile wide eye, then that would put Manilla within the worst part of the cyclone


Oh yes, good point.
It seems like the blog would be hopping with a major typhoon making landfall in the Philippines. Why so little interest?

From Wikipedia:
Manila is the capital and second largest city of the Philippines. It is one of the sixteen cities which, along with the municipality of Pateros, make up Metro Manila, the National Capital Region, whose overall population is around 12 million.

The city of Manila is located on the eastern shore of Manila Bay and is bordered by the cities of Navotas and Caloocan to the north; Quezon City and San Juan to the northeast; Mandaluyong to the east; Makati to the southeast, and Pasay to the south. It has a total population of 1,652,171 according to the 2010 census[5] and is the second most populous city in the Philippines, behind Quezon City. The populace inhabit an area of only 3,855 hectares (9,525.91 acres), making Manila arguably the most densely populated city in the world.
The NWS office in Tallahassee FL has put out a statement that all the weather radio transmitters in SE Alabama, SW Georgia and parts of the Florida panhandle are off the air. And there are several warned severe thunderstorms about. Stay safe!
Quoting 1. MahFL:


Actually JAX NWS is using the term...
"THIS EVENING IS WHEN IT GETS MORE INTERESTING AS THE...WELL
ADVERTISED POLAR VORTEX...DROPS SOUTHWARD IT IS PUSHING A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT."

Oh my first ever "first" lol.


Can someone try to explain something about the "polar vortex" that I haven't quite been able to sort out. . .

Is there a difference between the polar vortex and the air that just gets bottled up north of the jet stream?
Also, what is the difference between the PV dropping south and a "dip in the jet stream"?
I always thought these two topics were the same. . .
Quoting 87. PensacolaBuoy:

It seems like the blog would be hopping with a major typhoon making landfall in the Philippines. Why so little interest?


After Haiyan last year? Pfft....this thing's just a little candle in comparison.

(hope the Filipinos stay safe)
Quoting 86. MahFL:



Oh yes, good point.
I haven't seen anything on width of the eye, but usually that is a good average. Manilla will get a decent surge once the storm movies to its' west. I'm thinking that this last little stretch of the Philippines should shake up the structure a bit, considering there are more mountains and a bit more land. Although He has been moving south of guidance his entire life and is doing so again today.


Quoting hydrus:
It is maintaining its structure very well..
While there certainly is some land interaction atm, much of the storm is still over water. Luckily (if you can call it that), its eye will be passing over a larger mass of land soon, and hopefully that will cause more rapid weakening than what we're seeing now.
very active wave in the CATL. the best organized wave so far this season
Manila,wundermap

Manila, Philippines
Dasmarinas (IMETROMA11) Elev 49 ft | 14.55 N, 121.03 E | Change Station


Afternoon all. Another hot day here - hey, it's July!

Glad Rammasan didn't have time to wind up any further. Looks like Luzon is going to get a lot of rain as is.

the SOI values are once again acting as if El Nino is about to arrive as they are dropping....


Southern Oscillation Index
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to fall over the past two weeks. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 13 July is −7.9. The −8.0 value recorded on 12 July was the lowest SOI value since 10 April 2014.
Quoting stoormfury:
very active wave in the CATL. the best organized wave so far this season
could this be our next named system.
although weak.....they're out there


Weak westerly wind anomalies are present over part of the western tropical Pacific, on and to the north of the equator, and near-average across the remainder of the tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 13 July). If these westerly winds continued they could drive further warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific.
Quoting 81. Patrap:





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2014 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 13:51:27 N Lon : 122:07:30 E


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE



That would make it a cat 4. It certainly looks the part. If that's right, this could be a lot worse than expected.
Quoting 95. BahaHurican:

Afternoon all. Another hot day here - hey, it's July!

Glad Rammasan didn't have time to wind up any further. Looks like Luzon is going to get a lot of rain as is.




Dvorak says cat 4. If correct, this is no dodged bullet.
Quoting 56. islander101010:

im thinking polar votex vrs cen fl. heat! should we expect even worse thunderstorms?


I was wondering about that myself. There ought to be a lot of instability and vigorous convection where the warm and cold air masses clash.
The Impact is brutal as it is still well structured with inflow and outflow.

Quoting 87. PensacolaBuoy:

It seems like the blog would be hopping with a major typhoon making landfall in the Philippines. Why so little interest?

From Wikipedia:
Manila is the capital and second largest city of the Philippines. It is one of the sixteen cities which, along with the municipality of Pateros, make up Metro Manila, the National Capital Region, whose overall population is around 12 million.

The city of Manila is located on the eastern shore of Manila Bay and is bordered by the cities of Navotas and Caloocan to the north; Quezon City and San Juan to the northeast; Mandaluyong to the east; Makati to the southeast, and Pasay to the south. It has a total population of 1,652,171 according to the 2010 census[5] and is the second most populous city in the Philippines, behind Quezon City. The populace inhabit an area of only 3,855 hectares (9,525.91 acres), making Manila arguably the most densely populated city in the world.

IMO it's a t least partly because the storm is expected to have "digressed" to a tropical storm by then. While a good thing for Manila, it's not that exciting for the blog.
Quoting 93. stoormfury:

very active wave in the CATL. the best organized wave so far this season


Looks good.

Quoting 98. ricderr:

although weak.....they're out there


Weak westerly wind anomalies are present over part of the western tropical Pacific, on and to the north of the equator, and near-average across the remainder of the tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 13 July). If these westerly winds continued they could drive further warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific.

I'm still not seeing them...if anything, it looks like easterly (upwelling) trade winds have strengthened across the equatorial East Pacific lately.

But I digress. ;)

Looks like a landfall is occurring right now, this should put it over land for a few hours, and the terrain where it is now is much rougher than where it has been so the satellite appearance should start degrading soon. Nonetheless, it may have actually organized a little in the past couple hours, maintaining a pinhole eye. Still easily a Cat 3 equivalent I'm sure.

Quoting 72. yonzabam:



Good question. The jet stream 'loops' are huge, and have got even larger in recent years, The one that brought intense cold to the eastern US last winter continued over the Atlantic and then looped up to western Europe, bringing record floods and storms to the UK.

In 2010, a very southerly loop summer loop brought a record heat wave, drought and wildfires to Russia and Ukraine, resulting in a reduced wheat harvest, which contributed to rising global food prices, riots and the 'Arab spring'. It carried on eastwards and caused record flooding in Pakistan.

No idea why it should become a regular feature in the US. It will probably shift around the globe.


Ok, thx.
the wave in the EATL is also very interesting. very strong 850mb vorticity. is it warning signals that the MDR is about to get active?
112. FOREX
Quoting 106. Grothar:



Looks good.




they all look good until around 65W then poof.
Quoting 108. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm still not seeing them...if anything, it looks like easterly (upwelling) trade winds have strengthened across the equatorial East Pacific lately.

But I digress. ;)




Quoting 17. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's inaccurate to describe the upper-level low dropping down into the United States as the polar vortex, but seeing as those this disturbance did originate from the Arctic region, it's not inaccurate to call it a piece of the polar vortex.

This graphic from NWS New York, though from last winter, still applies today:




I just think it is such a strange and distracting discussion. We have never talked about "pieces of vortices" before. It's a Rossby wave with an embedded closed low - end of story. Negative height anomalies of similar magnitude have invaded the U.S. dozens of times before without needing a special name. If you make the case for a "piece of the PV," you could call almost any closed 500mb isohypse (height line) in the mid-latitudes a "piece of the polar vortex," which is just strange in my opinion.
Quoting 58. Neapolitan:

Well, it's definitely cool, and a number of daily record lows have been/will be broken across the region. But it's far from "unheard of". For instance, Charleston, WV, Pittsburgh, PA, and Asheville, NC, have all experienced 40s--and even the 30s--in past summers, with record lows in the 40s throughout July.

At any rate, whether you're a fan or not of such summer cold outbreaks, we can probably expect more and more of these jet stream kinks--and the wild weather they bring--as the Arctic sea ice thermostat continues to disintegrate...


The jet stream kink has everything to do with Typhoon Neoguri and nothing to do with Climate change and you know that.
116. FOREX
Quoting 111. stoormfury:

the wave in the EATL is also very interesting. very strong 850mb vorticity. is it warning signals that the MDR is about to get active?



coordinates please. thanks.
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
It seems like the blog would be hopping with a major typhoon making landfall in the Philippines. Why so little interest?

From Wikipedia:
Manila is the capital and second largest city of the Philippines. It is one of the sixteen cities which, along with the municipality of Pateros, make up Metro Manila, the National Capital Region, whose overall population is around 12 million.

The city of Manila is located on the eastern shore of Manila Bay and is bordered by the cities of Navotas and Caloocan to the north; Quezon City and San Juan to the northeast; Mandaluyong to the east; Makati to the southeast, and Pasay to the south. It has a total population of 1,652,171 according to the 2010 census[5] and is the second most populous city in the Philippines, behind Quezon City. The populace inhabit an area of only 3,855 hectares (9,525.91 acres), making Manila arguably the most densely populated city in the world.


Blog gets hopping when people feel there's a threat or possibility of a storm affecting their area.
Hurricane Arthur was a good example. We saw a bunch of blog members we hadn't seen since last season.
If there's a system that could affect the Western GOM/BOC, you'll see a bunch of Texas members show up. Otherwise, they don't blog much.

Another factor is how common tropical systems are in the Western Pacific. The Western Pacific is a tropical system (Typhoon) making machine.

Just imagine what this blog would be like if we had Category 3 Hurricane Rammasun in the Central GOM.
118. FOREX
Quoting 97. HurricaneAndre:

could this be our next named system.


Shear will destroy it.
The IOD looks neutral/negative as opposed to negative.
I've been noticing that shear has been decreasing over the Tropical Atlantic the past week, but we still have awhile to go until it reaches acceptable levels for TC formation. In accordance with climatology the African Wave Train looks to have been increasing in intensity over the past few days as well. SAL has slowly been decreasing too. We'll have to see where we go the next week, as we could just be in a lull and hostile conditions will come back with a vengeance. With this being said I believe we still can't infer anything about this season currently and will have to see how things play out over the next month or two as we move closer to our active time in TC climatology.

I still refuse to make seasonal forecasts as I imagine it like trying to predict if we're going to get a Tornado within 10 miles of a point 6 months from now, its meaningless and you should always be prepared for a TC.
Quoting 99. Patrap:


Quoting 107. Grothar:


Good Afternoon everyone. This is what I see and Woody and Buzz Light Year agree.

Quoting 113. weatherbro:





I don't see any reason to believe that westerly winds will come surging across the equatorial Pacific like that. The CFS week 3 and 4 forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt; they change constantly.

Quoting 114. Levi32:



I just think it is such a strange and distracting discussion. We have never talked about "pieces of vortices" before. It's a Rossby wave with an embedded closed low - end of story. Negative height anomalies of similar magnitude have invaded the U.S. dozens of times before without needing a special name. If you make the case for a "piece of the PV," you could call almost any closed 500mb isohypse (height line) in the mid-latitudes a "piece of the polar vortex," which is just strange in my opinion.

Yeah, this is true, which is where I think most of the arguments in the weather community stem from. It goes both ways though--when should you actually use the term?
Hey everyone. Quite impressive, Rammasun's just-prior-to-landfall intensification. Poor Filipinos! They can never catch a break from these events. The hot water and sporadic smallish islands don't seem to have nearly the effect a larger, more prominent landmass has at weakening systems traversing the island nation. Reminds me of storms crossing southern Florida (Everglades). It was a small system, so hopefully that limited the wind damage to a rather confined area, although I'm sure rainfall will be the greatest threat and much more widespread. Prayers go out to those being affected.

On another note, interesting weather here in the US. Back to the westerly flow pattern in FL. We had two days or so of normalcy and now back to the onshore pattern. This summer is seemingly very similar to last, although my little area hasn't had nearly as much rain. A slight deviation it would seem. Actually, most of the west coast, south of Tampa has been relatively dry, especially in comparison to last year. We did pick up well over an inch of rain this morning however.

Interesting little feature seems to be developing off the Carolinas.



Not sure it will have much time with the front advancing eastward, but at least it's something to look at. The imagination is one of the truly great traits we posses as a species. Enjoy your day!
That area in the South Atlantic off the coast of Africa always seems to be dry, I wonder why?

The cordinAtes of the EATL wave is 9N 25W
Quoting 109. MAweatherboy1:

Looks like a landfall is occurring right now, this should put it over land for a few hours, and the terrain where it is now is much rougher than where it has been so the satellite appearance should start degrading soon. Nonetheless, it may have actually organized a little in the past couple hours, maintaining a pinhole eye. Still easily a Cat 3 equivalent I'm sure.




Me too. That is still an impressive satellite presentation.
Quoting 122. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't see any reason to believe that westerly winds will come surging across the equatorial Pacific like that. The CFS week 3 and 4 forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt; they change constantly.


Yeah, this is true, which is where I think most of the arguments in the weather community stem from. It goes both ways though--when should you actually use the term?


Some argue never, as the most current definition of the polar vortex seems to be the winter stratospheric vortex. It's the only truly semipermanent, stable vortex in the northern hemisphere. As far as I'm concerned, now that the media has grabbed and twisted the term, it should never be used outside of scientific literature, at least while it remains this charged.
No rain here on the S.W. coast at the moment, but my station picked up close too 3" of rain earlier today. Lots of rain setting up over the Eastcoast. Most of the state of Fl. getting in on the rain today.

Quoting 21. opal92nwf:

This hurricane drought in FL really is incredible, I don't see how it can hold any longer than through next year.
It's like between 2004 and 2005 FL used up all its hurricane strike potential for the next 10 years....
Quoting 129. ncstorm:



It got dark in Wilmington real quick. 
Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Statement as of 2:05 PM EDT on July 15, 2014


Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423 remains valid until 9 PM EDT this evening for the following areas

In Connecticut this watch includes 2 counties

In southern Connecticut

Fairfield New Haven

In New Jersey this watch includes 5 counties

In northeast New Jersey

Bergen Essex Hudson Passaic Union

In New York this watch includes 10 counties

In southeast New York

Bronx Kings (Brooklyn) Nassau New York (Manhattan) Orange Putnam Queens Richmond (staten island) Rockland Westchester
Quoting 115. VAbeachhurricanes:



The jet stream kink has everything to do with Typhoon Neoguri and nothing to do with Climate change and you know that.


I agree with him. I think that's one of the first signs we are truly going to be seeing on a global scale in relation to climate change. I don't think there's precedent to the cold, but perhaps the duration and likelihood of these events, with this current example being a poor one. I wholeheartedly agree with Dr Jennifer Frances in regards to the relationship between the jet stream and a warming arctic, better known as arctic amplification. It's very logical and simple physics really, assuming the earth is in fact warming. Obviously, it is.
Hi all. Been a while. We have family in Manila will keep you posted as she reports in.
Youtube video showing typhoon Rammasun (Glenda) making landfall in the Philippines.

Link
137. IDTH
Quoting 112. FOREX:



they all look good until around 65W then poof.




I'd say that's accurate, too much dry air and shear right now for they're to be any real threat for development in the deep tropics. I think early August though could be when we possibly start talking about a named storm or invest again.
NYC is pretty stormy at the moment.
Taken a couple days ago you can see the Lake Breeze being pushed inland off of Lake Michigan from the Goes-13 visible satellite.

Quoting 128. Levi32:



Some argue never, as the most current definition of the polar vortex seems to be the winter stratospheric vortex. It's the only truly semipermanent, stable vortex in the northern hemisphere. As far as I'm concerned, now that the media has grabbed and twisted the term, it should never be used outside of scientific literature, at least while it remains this charged.


What about the Icelandic Low?
Quoting 115. VAbeachhurricanes:



The jet stream kink has everything to do with Typhoon Neoguri and nothing to do with Climate change and you know that.

I'm afraid I most definitely do NOT know that. Neither do you. Neither does anyone else. The thing is, while the jury is still out--so to speak--there is growing evidence suggesting that the climate change-induced warming/melting of the Arctic is leading to increasingly frequent and extreme kinks in the jet stream...and such kinks lead to wild weather, such as the current Midwest cold spell, East Coast flooding rains, and West Coast record heat and intensifying drought...
Am located in Quezon City here in Manila. The typhoon has just started to pound us. Okay I hear our neighbor's glass panes breaking. Or was it ours? Winds are strong. Many in Manila were skeptic that we're not really in direct hit of the typhoon - since it's been a while we were hit by a typhoon. And since weather earlier during the day was hot - not really a tell-tale sign of an approaching monster. But we Filipinos are storm people - these typhoons bring good despite the damage they do. If not for them the warm ocean east of our islands would bake us Filipinos to crispy perfection. Thanks for all your prayers.
Quoting 140. GatorWX:



What about the Icelandic Low?


There are many semipermanent features in long-term means of atmospheric fields, but that's climatology. Watch a GFS forecast and note how there is anything but a permanent vortex near Iceland.
Quoting 31. TheDawnAwakening:

Why isn't anyone talking about the surface low that is developing near 27n and 68w? Dry air and wind shear is still a problem, but they both should be letting up, latest SAL update shows little to no dry air present near the surface low. Wind shear is still moderate 10-20 knots.

Quoting 122. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't see any reason to believe that westerly winds will come surging across the equatorial Pacific like that. The CFS week 3 and 4 forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt; they change constantly.


Thats only long range CFS(three-six month forecasts). Not short range runs. It's been accurate thus far regarding STT's. Besides, we're heading out of a weak upwelling event(around since May). Plus the AAO is expected to crash(positive AAO's cause positive SOI's and vice versa) from it's positive streak since late April. Not to mention the continued typhoon activity(shown by models) should offset the warm pool east of the Philippines. All this should resume the transition interrupted since around May Day(though no super nino by any means;))!
Those waves in the central Atlantic are not going to develop but will hopefully bring some welcome rains to the Caribbean.
147. IDTH
Quoting 132. win1gamegiantsplease:


It got dark in Wilmington real quick. 

YEP SURE DID! hope it clears out soon I got a swim meet today.
Corrected - my comment was directed towards the "Polar Vortex" term being used (piece breaking off?)

They've always just been knowns as

Continental Polar Air Masses (or Continental Arctic)
Quoting 142. archipelagicchemist:

Am located in Quezon City here in Manila. The typhoon has just started to pound us. Okay I hear our neighbor's glass panes breaking. Or was it ours? Winds are strong. Many in Manila were skeptic that we're not really in direct hit of the typhoon - since it's been a while we were hit by a typhoon. And since weather earlier during the day was hot - not really a tell-tale sign of an approaching monster. But we Filipinos are storm people - these typhoons bring good despite the damage they do. If not for them the warm ocean east of our islands would bake us Filipinos to crispy perfection. Thanks for all your prayers.
Please take care.
Quoting 143. Levi32:



There are many semipermanent features in long-term means of atmospheric fields, but that's climatology. Watch a GFS forecast and note how there is anything but a permanent vortex near Iceland.


True.. It is a major component of the NAO however and certainly a dominant feature of how our weather here in North America and the northern hemisphere as a whole behaves.
Quoting 130. Sfloridacat5:

No rain here on the S.W. coast at the moment, but my station picked up close too 3" of rain earlier today. Lots of rain setting up over the Eastcoast. Most of the state of Fl. getting in on the rain today.


Quoting 129. ncstorm:


Widespread showers and t'storms up and down the east coast in response to the cold front pushing southeastward and ahead of it a trough axis has set up.

it got bigger again..and just become I'm a woman I dont want to hear "thats what she said"..:)

Simple (can be broken down further) air masses chart for those not familiar.

Quoting 146. weathermanwannabe:

Those waves in the central Atlantic are not going to develop but will hopefully bring some welcome rains to the Caribbean.
Quoting 65. jrweatherman:



Why are these jet stream kinks happening over NA and not the rest of the northern hemisphere? Or are they and I'm just not aware it?
They're happening all over the hemisphere. If you read blogger barbam who who posts here about wx in Germany and across Europe, you will note some of the impacts. Back in 2010 an extreme kink like this one led to extreme highs and horrible fires in Russia, while Pakistan, further downstream, drowned in some of the worst flooding seen in the historical record. China has also suffered from these hangups in the Jet stream.
Hi, I'm in Laguna province, just southeast of Manila, and the wind's picking up already. It's 3AM here. Hoping I can stay online.
Quoting 153. ncstorm:

it got bigger again..and just become I'm a woman I dont want to hear "that is not what she said"..:)


Plenty warm enough water.

Quoting 73. yonzabam:



Ach, kilts are only worn at weddings, these days. And by busking bagpipers on Edinburgh's Princes Street, who make good money being photographed with the tourists.

If you're ever over here, you could ask the Edinburgh bagpipers. I'd like to watch that :)


hahaha, no doubt.. this is the best commercial E.V.E.R.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Those waves in the central Atlantic are not going to develop but will hopefully bring some welcome rains to the Caribbean.

One inch at my house since midnight, which is very nice.
More coming in right now too.
Very welcomed rain.
Quoting ArvinA:
Hi, I'm in Laguna province, just southeast of Manila, and the wind's picking up already. It's 3AM here. Hoping I can stay online.

Very nice to see posts from there right now.
Take care and keep us informed if you can.
Quoting 155. GTstormChaserCaleb:




I'm more concerned about the squiggly line through South Florida. It looks dangerous. :)
Quoting 101. yonzabam:



Dvorak says cat 4. If correct, this is no dodged bullet.
I'm noting the eye seems to be tightening up, as opposed to "collapsing". Sure hoping the land interaction disruption starts to kick in soon...

Quoting 107. Grothar:


Say... is that a cloud over Saint Barts?
Quoting 154. Sfloridacat5:

Simple (can be broken down further) air masses chart for those not familiar.




Not so sure about the whole maritime tropic pointing at California thing, cold water, and dry stable airmasses and deserts are hardly warm, humid and maritime tropical :)
At the end of this loop look at what the friction of land does to the eye.

18z Best Track remains at 110kts.

09W RAMMASUN 140715 1800 13.9N 121.9E WPAC 110 941
Early tomorrow morning temperatures
With a short hello guys ....


15.07.2014: Actual video of Typhoon rammasun Glenda hits Philippines. This is an actual video of Typhoon rammasun thant hits Sorsogon in Philippines.
Last update.

Power down. Things going down. Online through my cell.
folks...our Florida weather Blog..weather is going to get interesting here tomorrow huh....................Link
I wonder how the weather patterns would be on an alien water world with deep oceans all around?
Quoting 164. Sfloridacat5:


Hmmm... seems like the cold air intrusion over Central Asia is even worse than the one over N. America....
Quoting Jedkins01:


Not so sure about the whole maritime tropic pointing at California thing, cold water, and dry stable airmasses and deserts are hardly warm, humid and maritime tropical :)


Yeah
Pacific Gas and Electric uses 16 different climate zones for California.

http://www.pge.com/mybusiness/edusafety/training/ pec/toolbox/arch/climate/index.shtml



It's pretty nice. On their website they have each section (1-16 )you can click on and get climate information for that region.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm... seems like the cold air intrusion over Central Asia is even worse than the one over N. America....


I noticed that. It looks to be pretty deep.
Quoting 171. ArvinA:

Last update.

Power down. Things going down. Online through my cell.
Take care!
Amazingly intact system..
Rammasun/Glenda is expected to lose some strength before making its closest pass to Manila (125 mph to 110 mph), but the impacts are still expected to be severe. Disregarding the wind threat, Rammasun has been firing very deep convection (colder than -80C) in the eastern eyewall for the past day; this will pose a flooding threat. As the eye passes Manila, flow around the cyclone is expected to pile water into Manila Bay. I heard TWC say 6-10' of storm surge was expected.

Hopefully residents stay safe. Manila doesn't have the best construction, and they're not accustomed to storms quite this strong.

After exiting the Philippines, Rammasun is expected to emerge back over water and intensify into a Category 4 equivalent (140 mph) before hitting Hainan.

EDIT: All of this via the 12z JTWC advisory. The next one comes out at 21z, and we'll see what changes then.

Hi Arvin. Dito sa Manila may kuryente pa naman. Nauna kayong tinamaan dyan. Gotta prepare as well...

Quoting 171. ArvinA:

Last update.

Power down. Things going down. Online through my cell.


something to watch here
Quoting 157. ArvinA:

Hi, I'm in Laguna province, just southeast of Manila, and the wind's picking up already. It's 3AM here. Hoping I can stay online.
Hope you are safe..Keep us posted if possible.
Fun fact: my company's phone system went down during Haiyan last year, which I thought was just a strange coincidence until they went down for the first time since then 20 minutes ago. Obviously there's some relays/servers in the Phillipines that are part of the overall system.
Quoting 124. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That area in the South Atlantic off the coast of Africa always seems to be dry, I wonder why?


The entire coast is a desert, and the water very cold. Shows well here..

can anyone explain what the red feature is moving towards the east coast on the 12z Euro..



12 CMC 12z NAVGEM
Quoting 186. Climate175:




12z Euro has a low but doesn't do anything with it..at 48 hours..

Quoting 179. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Rammasun/Glenda is expected to lose some strength before making its closest pass to Manila (125 mph to 110 mph), but the impacts are still expected to be severe. Disregarding the wind threat, Rammasun has been firing very deep convection (colder than -80C) in the eastern eyewall for the past day; this will pose a flooding threat. As the eye passes Manila, flow around the cyclone is expected to pile water into Manila Bay. I heard TWC say 6-10' of storm surge was expected.

Hopefully residents stay safe. Manila doesn't have the best construction, and they're not accustomed to storms quite this strong.

After exiting the Philippines, Rammasun is expected to emerge back over water and intensify into a Category 4 equivalent (140 mph) before hitting Hainan.

EDIT: All of this via the 12z JTWC advisory. The next one comes out at 21z, and we'll see what changes then.




Here is the 21:00UTC warning at 110kts.

Quoting 187. ncstorm:



12z Euro has a low but doesn't do anything with it..at 48 hours..


That area might have a chance to develop.
Quoting 183. TimSoCal:

Fun fact: my company's phone system went down during Haiyan last year, which I thought was just a strange coincidence until they went down for the first time since then 20 minutes ago. Obviously there's some relays/servers in the Phillipines that are part of the overall system.
Yes there is...Thats where some of the cell phone companies have there international franchises.
Quoting 184. hydrus:

The entire coast is a desert, and the water very cold.
... which is the main reason so few TCs are observed in the S ATL. Note the similar dust pattern W of the Sahara. Is there another place on the globe where desert dust gets so directly into the atmosphere?
Quoting hydrus:

Wow, 2 eyes, with one shut and the other open.
Spooky stuff.
Quoting 141. Neapolitan:


I'm afraid I most definitely do NOT know that. Neither do you. Neither does anyone else. The thing is, while the jury is still out--so to speak--there is growing evidence suggesting that the climate change-induced warming/melting of the Arctic is leading to increasingly frequent and extreme kinks in the jet stream...and such kinks lead to wild weather, such as the current Midwest cold spell, East Coast flooding rains, and West Coast record heat and intensifying drought...


The principal culprit is a ridge of warm, dry air that has been parked around the Mackenzie River valley and points east for weeks. The ridge acts as a roadblock to weather patterns that would otherwise carry moisture into the region.

Since mid-June, temperatures from Yellowknife to Tuktoyaktuk have been well above historic averages while precipitation has been sparse. As the forest dries out, there’s less moisture around to slow fire down. If a fire breaks out it can go farther and faster than it would in a typical year, which makes all the difference. In Canada, just 3 per cent of fires are responsible for 97 per cent of the area burned.

“That’s the tail that wags the dog – and why this event is having such an extreme effect,” says Mike Flannigan, a professor at the University of Alberta who specializes in climate-fire interactions.


Link
Quoting hydrus:
The entire coast is a desert, and the water very cold. Shows well here..



When I'm bored I'll sometimes use Google Earth and zoom in on the Saharan region. It has some pretty cool features (all kinds of weird desert terrian).
I have a degree in Geography so besides being really into meteorology I'm also into studying the Earth's topography.
Coming down Heavy in Trinidad right now.
Sadly, our Radar is down………..

Plenty more to come.
Quoting 195. Sfloridacat5:



When I'm bored I'll sometimes use Google Earth and zoom in on the Saharan region. It has some pretty cool features (all kinds of weird desert terrian).
I have a degree in Geography so besides being really into meteorology I'm also into studying the Earth's topography.
We like the same stuff. I love all science. Geology, Geography, Oceanography, Meteorology, Biology, Physics, Astronomy, Molecular Physics, Ecology, Etc...:)
Quoting pottery:
Coming down Heavy in Trinidad right now.
Sadly, our Radar is down………..

Plenty more to come.


You're in the region where Hurricane Charley first got going.

It's become quiet. Is this the eye?
Quoting 196. pottery:

Coming down Heavy in Trinidad right now.
Sadly, our Radar is down………..

Plenty more to come.


Send it to PR!!
Quoting archipelagicchemist:
It's become quiet. Is this the eye?


You still have power and can use your computer in the eye of Typhoon Rammasun ?
Quoting 199. archipelagicchemist:

It's become quiet. Is this the eye?
You bet. The wind will return, possibly stronger. Be vigilant.
Quoting 193. pottery:


Wow, 2 eyes, with one shut and the other open.
Spooky stuff.
Greetings Pott.. This is a bad one, and stronger than forecast I believe.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Send it to PR!!

NO ! It's MINE all MINE heheheheheh….
Perfect mid summer fall day in S C IL, hit 72 for high, currently 70 w/ a 54 dew pt, light N-NNW winds, 30.01". Might get down to 50 tonight, may have to close a few of the windows we opened last night. Enjoyed our first Monday in July w/out a 79 dew pt, think it topped at 73 before front came through. 3 midweeks w/ A/C off is even better, this stretch will be the longest, lows about same as they reached week of the 4th. 90s return next week, will be at Lake of the Ozarks then, so won't mind too much.
Quoting hydrus:
Greetings Pott.. This is a bad one, and stronger than forecast I believe.

Yeah, I'm looking at the loops.
Strong system.
People on the ground under that must be seeing Bad Times.
It's late night/early morning there.
Dread.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


You're in the region where Hurricane Charley first got going.


Yeah, I remember him.
Quoting 208. pottery:


Yeah, I remember him.
So do I..
30 day rainfall map.
Highest 30 day rainfall is 20.8" in Collier County of S.W. Florida.
Yes, apparently we still have power. Below I read somewhere that Rammasun will weaken as it traverses land towards here in Manila. It has downed powerlines in the southern provinces but it might have become weak to do so here in the capital. Hopefully that is the case. But we're still in the eye - an eerily quiet part where you'd know it will again lash with galeforce winds after the quiet.

Quoting 201. Sfloridacat5:



You still have power and can use your computer in the eye of Typhoon Rammasun ?
The center approaching Manila Bay..
Quoting 205. pottery:


NO ! It's MINE all MINE heheheheheh….


But in seriousness things are getting worse here as rationing of water becomes more and more viable.

The President of the authority of aqueducts and sewers (AAA), Alberto Lazaro, admitted today that if it doesn't rain enough in the next few days, the water service interruptions could begin even before the Declaration of a rationing due to drought that affects much of Puerto Rico.


Although he considered that according to the current levels in Lakes Carraizo and La Plata, rationing not be decretaría to within 25 to 35 days in the first and in about 40 days in La Plata, Lazaro did not rule out cuts before that.

Link
Quoting 211. archipelagicchemist:

Yes, apparently we still have power. Below I read somewhere that Rammasun will weaken as it traverses land towards here in Manila. It has downed powerlines in the southern provinces but it might have become weak to do so here in the capital. Hopefully that is the case. But we're still in the eye - an eerily quiet part where you'd know it will again lash with galeforce winds after the quiet.


If you can, please stay with us and report.
Quoting 212. hydrus:

The center approaching Manila Bay..

Looks like it's starting to fill in a little bit.
Oh, there you are Pottery.
Found you a radar link that I think will work for you and left it over at my blog.
Hope it helps.
Quoting 216. BahaHurican:

Looks like it's starting to fill in a little bit.
Yep..Tough little typhoon.
Quoting 185. ncstorm:

can anyone explain what the red feature is moving towards the east coast on the 12z Euro..




The colors of those model frames depict the height of the midlevel atmosphere. Beyond that, all I can tell you is the ability to recognize changing heights is important in forecasting how and where troughs and ridges will form and move. Picturing all levels of the atmosphere and how upper levels affect pressure changes at the surface for me is difficult. Perhaps that link or another blogger can take this answer further for you.

hellacious rush hour
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC...SE NY...FAR WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423...

VALID 152041Z - 152215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING ACROSS WW 423. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

DISCUSSION...A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
ONGOING FROM NEAR PHILADELPHIA PA SSWWD TO NEAR RICHMOND VA. THIS
LINE IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR
THE COAST WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG.
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP THE LINE TO CONTINUE ORGANIZING AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. IN ADDITION...THE PHILADELPHIA WSR-88D VWP
SHOWS UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF FLOW ABOVE 3 KM. THE
WIND PROFILE COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE GREATEST WITH SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.

It's the whole Eastern Seaboard!
Quoting 210. Sfloridacat5:

30 day rainfall map.
Highest 30 day rainfall is 20.8" in Collier County of S.W. Florida.



I think that is where Nea lives. I wonder if he can validate?
According to the wind map for 3 hours from now, the eye of the cyclone should pass directly over Manila bay:-

Link
Quoting Levi32:


I just think it is such a strange and distracting discussion. We have never talked about "pieces of vortices" before. It's a Rossby wave with an embedded closed low - end of story. Negative height anomalies of similar magnitude have invaded the U.S. dozens of times before without needing a special name. If you make the case for a "piece of the PV," you could call almost any closed 500mb isohypse (height line) in the mid-latitudes a "piece of the polar vortex," which is just strange in my opinion.

Absolutely correct, and this goes to the heart of the matter. Cold closed lows dropping down from Canada have occurred in July repeatedly in recorded history. We will probably have a couple of dozen daily lows broken over the next two days, but this month is certainly not unusually cold. June and July of 1967 and 1945 were much colder. Does no one remember 1816, the "Year Without a Summer"? There was a foot of snow in Quebec City and people actually starved to death as a result of crop failures. I realize that of incredible weather in 1816 was different than our cold air intrusion 2014 but that's just this point. What's happening is a normal part of weather, and giving it a special name elevates it to a position it does need or deserve.
Thunderstorm roared through just before 4 p.m. knocking us down from 93 to 77. Still getting light rain. 0.37" so far. Good amount of thunder and lightning, and some gusts around 40 mph. Some small twigs and branchlets down.
Quoting 226. sar2401:


Absolutely correct, and this goes to the heart of the matter. Cold closed lows dropping down from Canada have occurred in July repeatedly in recorded history. We will probably have a couple of dozen daily lows broken over the next two days, but this month is certainly not unusually cold. June and July of 1967 and 1945 were much colder. Does no one remember 1816, the "Year Without a Summer"? There was a foot of snow in Quebec City and people actually starved to death as a result of crop failures. I realize that of incredible weather in 1816 was different than our cold air intrusion 2014 but that's just this point. What's happening is a normal part of weather, and giving it a special name elevates it to a position it does need or deserve.


I do, I do. That was a big Polar Vortex. :)
According to the NWS, this is as far as the front gets before stalling out and moving back to the north. That will keep Florida in the hot soup (which is to be expected for July).
Quoting Chicklit:

hellacious rush hour
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC...SE NY...FAR WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423...

VALID 152041Z - 152215Z


This can't be right. The watch barely extends into Connecticut and doesn't cover New England at all on the map. I guess you could strech it to say "Far Eastern New England" but even that is quite a stretch. At least the actual watch doesn't include anything about New England and mentions the actual states, none of which is in New England.
Quoting Grothar:


I do, I do. That was a big Polar Vorex. :)

Well, of course you do. I've heard about the big killing you made in the oats and maize futures markets. :-)
Quoting 185. ncstorm:

can anyone explain what the red feature is moving towards the east coast on the 12z Euro..





Those are the 500mb heights. Generally, the higher the height, the warmer the surface temp, and also (frequently) the higher the pressure. A low pressure system will appear as a "dent" in the colors, or sometimes as a pocket of cooler temperatures. As a note, a 570dm height in FL does not equal the same temperature potential as a 570dm height in Michigan. It is just one piece of the puzzle.
Quoting 230. sar2401:


This can't be right. The watch barely extends into Connecticut and doesn't cover New England at all on the map. I guess you could strech it to say "Far Eastern New England" but even that is quite a stretch. At least the actual watch doesn't include anything about New England and mentions the actual states, none of which is in New England.


Sar... are you confusing your east and west again? Eastern New England would be around Boston. Conn is western New England.
Quoting 221. Barefootontherocks:

The colors of those model frames depict the height of the midlevel atmosphere. Beyond that, all I can tell you is the ability to recognize changing heights is important in forecasting how and where troughs and ridges will form and move. Picturing all levels of the atmosphere and how upper levels affect pressure changes at the surface for me is difficult. Perhaps that link or another blogger can take this answer further for you.


thanks..yes that answer helped a lot :)
Quoting 226. sar2401:


Absolutely correct, and this goes to the heart of the matter. Cold closed lows dropping down from Canada have occurred in July repeatedly in recorded history. We will probably have a couple of dozen daily lows broken over the next two days, but this month is certainly not unusually cold. June and July of 1967 and 1945 were much colder. Does no one remember 1816, the "Year Without a Summer"? There was a foot of snow in Quebec City and people actually starved to death as a result of crop failures. I realize that of incredible weather in 1816 was different than our cold air intrusion 2014 but that's just this point. What's happening is a normal part of weather, and giving it a special name elevates it to a position it does need or deserve.
The news outlets ( all of them ) will use catchy titles that sound formidable in an attempt to make them into household words. It is all to increase ratings regardless if its true or false..i am so fricken disgusted with the bs on t.v.
Another round of storms moving through the NYC area.
polar Vortex gonna eat us all up.


Polar vortex over Quebec and Maine on the morning of January 21, 1985


Remember dis.?..i do...froze my onions...
Pressure at Manila is 29.30" and falling.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
According to the NWS, this is as far as the front gets before stalling out and moving back to the north. That will keep Florida in the hot soup (which is to be expected for July).

Hooray! We finally got some rain. 0.60...not a toad choker but better than what we've had, since that is now the monthly total for July as well. It also knocked the temperature down from 94 to 74 but now it's back up to 80, with 89 at Montgomery. There are more storms forming in the unstable air mass as the front creeps this way so we may luck out and a get another thunderstorm before the drier air gets here. The front is just north of Birmingham, marked by a think line of storms as it pushes SE. It looks like the front will wash out right over my house and return north Thursday as a warm front. If so, I make have other crack at some rain then. You know you're living in south Alabama though when the weather forecast says it will be cooler tomorrow, with a high of 89. Not many places would consider 89 as "cooler". :-)
Quoting hydrus:
polar Vortex gonna eat us all up.


Polar vortex over Quebec and Maine on the morning of January 21, 1985


Remember dis.?..i do...froze my onions...


Six degrees F with 25 mph north wind in Tallahassee. Bittter cold!
coldest of the 20'th century at that location.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Sar... are you confusing your east and west again? Eastern New England would be around Boston. Conn is western New England.

I guess if including that tiny part of Connecticut justifies the watch being in the far western part of New England than that would be correct. However, eastern New England would be around Eastport, Maine, not Boston. I'm not that confused. :-)
Quoting sar2401:

Absolutely correct, and this goes to the heart of the matter. Cold closed lows dropping down from Canada have occurred in July repeatedly in recorded history. We will probably have a couple of dozen daily lows broken over the next two days, but this month is certainly not unusually cold. June and July of 1967 and 1945 were much colder. Does no one remember 1816, the "Year Without a Summer"? There was a foot of snow in Quebec City and people actually starved to death as a result of crop failures. I


realize that of incredible weather in 1816 was different than our cold air intrusion 2014 but that's just this point. What's happening is a normal part of weather, and giving it a special name elevates it to a position it does need or deserve.



These cool outbreaks are a part of North American July climatology and will happen again and again from time to time. This one is not unusual at all. In many cold outbreaks somebody somewhere sets a record.. MSP yesterday had a record low date Max of 65F. This happens.

1816 did not have universal freezes or sold winter conditions all summer in the northern states. It did have destructive frosts in large areas that are normally safe from frost and these happened all three summer months. But these were the normally cooler areas (that nevertheless don't and didn't freeze in any other summer). The June showstorm had other precedents. But there was not just one unusual cold event, there were several spread through the summer. Large areas of crops though did make it through the summer and accumulate sufficient growing degree days to almost make it to harvest. A widespread and climatologically unusually early September frost killed these over really broad areas.

In summary the summer of 1816 was like a normal late Spring/Early Summer up there which does have a few freezes and wintry periods interspersed by long periods of almost summerlike weather. But it never got beyond that level and that's not enough to mature crops like maize (what we call corn) This is consistent with lack of polar warming due to volcanic aerosol and the other take from this is that such "volcano winter" conditions are ALSO part of our climatology and we should be prepared for them at least a few times per millennium.

Yes the summer of 1816 could happen again!

Atmospheric polar vortex over Titan's south pole.



True-color image of layers of haze in Titan's atmosphere.
Quoting 228. Grothar:



I do, I do. That was a big Polar Vorex. :)


LOL.

Anyways, we are feeling the vortex here in Wisconsin today. As i'm sure silas, Deep Sea Rising, and any of the other local bloggers can attest, it feels exactly like October out today. It even smells like Autumn!
Boring....
Quoting hydrus:


Based on that loop, the eye didn't quite hold together long enough to make it to Manila.
Quoting 251. Sfloridacat5:



Based on that loop, the eye didn't quite hold together long enough to make it to Manila.
If the eye fills in, there is still a relative calm at the center..I see your point though. The eye did not seem to move directly over Manila...wait and see I guess...
Is there any live streaming from Manila?
Next up for the Philippines... well, another close encounter with a typhoon if the GFS is right.



FWIW, the Euro does not show much of anything with this, and the CMC has it, but considerably stronger and also farther north. GFS looks like a reasonable compromise, but we'll have to see how it unfolds as none of the models have done especially well with Rammasun.
Quoting 248. WIBadgerWeather:



LOL.

Anyways, we are feeling the vortex here in Wisconsin today. As i'm sure silas, Deep Sea Rising, and any of the other local bloggers can attest, it feels exactly like October out today. It even smells like Autumn!
Love it..record lows for us here in Mid TN tonight and tomorrow..
Daylight over Rammasun and the Philippines now, with the center appearing to be just now reemerging over water. It's definitely been disrupted by the land and we won't know the extent of the impact on the system for a few more hours yet but the structure remains quite good. A good microwave pass would be useful right now for checking out the central core.

Quoting 242. georgevandenberghe:



Six degrees F with 25 mph north wind in Tallahassee. Bittter cold!
coldest of the 20'th century at that location.




It went to 2 Farenheit in Mobile during that freeze, with Mobile Bay freezing up to 1/4 mile offshore; people ice skated on the Bay. We'd had a month of above-normal temps prior, and I remember great columns of steam leaping into the air off the Bay that first day - incredibly surreal. The cold was horrific. We were without water for a week thanks to the broken pipes.


wow!!
Quoting georgevandenberghe:



These cool outbreaks are a part of North American July climatology and will happen again and again from time to time. This one is not unusual at all. In many cold outbreaks somebody somewhere sets a record.. MSP yesterday had a record low date Max of 65F. This happens.

1816 did not have universal freezes or sold winter conditions all summer in the northern states. It did have destructive frosts in large areas that are normally safe from frost and these happened all three summer months. But these were the normally cooler areas (that nevertheless don't and didn't freeze in any other summer). The June showstorm had other precedents. But there was not just one unusual cold event, there were several spread through the summer. Large areas of crops though did make it through the summer and accumulate sufficient growing degree days to almost make it to harvest. A widespread and climatologically unusually early September frost killed these over really broad areas.

In summary the summer of 1816 was like a normal late Spring/Early Summer up there which does have a few freezes and wintry periods interspersed by long periods of almost summerlike weather. But it never got beyond that level and that's not enough to mature crops like maize (what we call corn) This is consistent with lack of polar warming due to volcanic aerosol and the other take from this is that such "volcano winter" conditions are ALSO part of our climatology and we should be prepared for them at least a few times per millennium.

Yes the summer of 1816 could happen again!

Very true. The estimates I've read was that the 1815 super eruptions from Tambora as well as a Dalton Minimum in solar activity were enough to lower global temperatures to between 0.5C to 1.0C. Even though that doesn't sound like much, it was enough to cause worldwide crop failures with resultant malnutrition and starvation. There's no reason to think the same wouldn't happen today. This is not to diminish global warming, which is occurring now, but this type of "black swan" event can spring up overnight and threaten us again. It's rare to have a confluence of events cause problems of the magnitude of 1815-1816 but it's not impossible that it could happen again. We are dependent now on things like crop failures only happening in one part of the world and using food production from other parts of the world to make up the difference. I wonder if governments globally have thought about this and have any contingency plans?
Quoting sar2401:

Very true. The estimates I've read was that the 1815 super eruptions from Tambora as well as a Dalton Minimum in solar activity were enough to lower global temperatures to between 0.5C to 1.0C. Even though that doesn't sound like much, it was enough to cause worldwide crop failures with resultant malnutrition and starvation. There's no reason to think the same wouldn't happen today. This is not to diminish global warming, which is occurring now, but this type of "black swan" event can spring up overnight and threaten us again. It's rare to have a confluence of events cause problems of the magnitude of 1815-1816 but it's not impossible that it could happen again. We are dependent now on things like crop failures only happening in one part of the world and using food production from other parts of the world to make up the difference. I wonder if governments globally have thought about this and have any contingency plans?
Probably not.
The current activity in the Western Pacific.


It appears 93W will be the next system to track after Rammasun. It already appears to be on the verge of becoming a tropical depression, and is predicted by the GFS to become a typhoon as it nears the northern islands of the Philippines in five to six days.

Speaking of 500mb heights, yikes...the heat cometh in the West.

Quoting 256. MAweatherboy1:

Daylight over Rammasun and the Philippines now, with the center appearing to be just now reemerging over water. It's definitely been disrupted by the land and we won't know the extent of the impact on the system for a few more hours yet but the structure remains quite good. A good microwave pass would be useful right now for checking out the central core.



Eyewall's still evident, but it's pretty ragged. Much of the north side has collapsed.
Manila experiencing tropical storm conditions with sustained winds at 40 mph and pressure 29.20" and pressure fall slowing. Winds are coming from inland so they'll be quite a bit stronger over open water.

The center passed directly over Sangley Point to the south of Manilla in the past hour with a minimum hourly pressure of 29.16" with a reading around 29.10" probable between hourly readings.
Though it'll be a struggle, it's worth noting that we may see our first decent system out in the eastern Atlantic over the next few days.


The red shaded areas indicate the regions that I believe could see the potential for tropical cyclone development over the next 10 days.
Though It seems that the main focus of energy will remain in the Pacific until the end of the month.
Quoting 266. TylerStanfield:

Though it'll be a struggle, it's worth noting that we may see our first decent system out in the eastern Atlantic over the next few days.


The red shaded areas indicate the regions that I believe could see the potential for tropical cyclone development over the next 10 days.
Though It seems that the main focus of energy will remain in the Pacific until the end of the month.
I do not like this pattern, and I hope something changes before the heart of hurricane season arrives. The predicted El-Nino will not be much of an issue. If the dry air, dust, and shear stick around, that will be a good thing, otherwise, The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season may have more than a few memorable storms.
272. Relix
So, any hope of rain for us in PR? I am starting to feel like CaribBoy; begging for rain :P. Its been VERY dry here and we are experiencing a moderate drought. I think we have about 30 days before we start facing real problems, so i hope we get something interesting soon for us.
Quoting 271. hydrus:

I do not like this pattern, and I hope something changes before the heart of hurricane season arrives. The predicted El-Nino will not be much of an issue. If the dry air, dust, and shear stick around, that will be a good thing, otherwise, The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season may have more than a few memorable storms.


Indeed, looking at earthwind I still cannot spot any decent westerlies which would be necessary for (a strong) El Nino - despite Rammasun: Link
Quoting 248. WIBadgerWeather:



LOL.

Anyways, we are feeling the vortex here in Wisconsin today. As i'm sure silas, Deep Sea Rising, and any of the other local bloggers can attest, it feels exactly like October out today. It even smells like Autumn!


Has been refreshing to wake to the window open and in the 50's, beats being in the NE right now for sure. 49 for tonight and then back to closer to seasonal weather ahead. A brisk 62 out right now here just north of Madison. Poor Philippines, typhoon train really aligned for them right now, as most every season is for them; it's going to be a long one. Some moderately decent waves with good convection get to the STJ and wow do they just disappear in the blink of an eye. Will be interesting to see if the first CV storm is a low rider and how fast it gets eaten. If it makes it to the north of PR/DR, then it's got a chance; maybe by early August we'll get a little CV action.
Not enough money for emergency relief? Get used to it
Reductions in rations to refugees are a timely reminder: relief workers and governments must prepare for the 'new normal'
Kristalina Georgieva in Brussels, Guardian Professional, Tuesday 15 July 2014 14.00 BST
Nearly 800,000 refugees in Africa are receiving severely reduced food rations because of a shortage of funds in the World Food Programme and in the UN refugee agency, UNHCR. At least half of them are children for whom poor nutrition can have life-long negative consequences. ...

------------------------


A lot of spectacular waterspouts in the Mediterranean today, f.e. in Greece (see above, source). Fair weather in Gemany, but maybe bad stuff in the offing (I'll keep you updated).
Meanwhile: compassionate thoughts to the Philippines, and good night!
Quoting 271. hydrus:

I do not like this pattern, and I hope something changes before the heart of hurricane season arrives. The predicted El-Nino will not be much of an issue. If the dry air, dust, and shear stick around, that will be a good thing, otherwise, The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season may have more than a few memorable storms.

That's the problem I have with long-range forecasting, theres many variables and each can effect the season drastically. Most problems that have been stated to hinder storms this season are becoming less prevelant.
These include:
-El Nino has not materialized yet, we are likely to see a warm-biased neutral ENSO through the peak of the season.


-MDR SSTs are warming and are now very close to average.


-Tropical waves are likely to be potent again.
-SAL is slowly backing off.

-Shear is also slowly letting up.
JMO based on current trends, I expect a seasonal total of around...
12-15 named storms
5-8 hurricanes
2-3 major hurricanes
ACE: 75 - 110
MDR heating up in the Atlantic, but when will the STJ relax and open the Caribbean up for business? And won't the A/B high, which, like last year is huge and very strong cause sinking air over the MDR? Tropical waves off Africa were potent only until they hit the water last year, they're already looking better this year once they leave the coast.
Quoting 271. hydrus:

I do not like this pattern, and I hope something changes before the heart of hurricane season arrives. The predicted El-Nino will not be much of an issue. If the dry air, dust, and shear stick around, that will be a good thing, otherwise, The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season may have more than a few memorable storms.

It appears that the pattern favors for storms to follow a more westerly track. Whether that be for it to split the gap between Bermuda and the East coast, hit the east coast, or find them in the Caribbean or Gulf. Thankfully the check to this pattern is that there is currently unfavorable conditions that is plaguing most of the deep tropics, where these stronger systems want to develop.

Being that I am in SW Florida I fear a repeat of Cane Charley. Neutral year and fronts coming down(too far south) all summer.I dont like the way things are setting up at all. But I am paranoid that way LOL
Deep tropical pattern here, on and off tropical showers all day, we've had just over an inch from a few rounds of brief but very heavy rain.
Quoting 267. hydrus:




That area of weak vorticity, and a very deep tropical airmass will lead to enhanced rainfall tomorrow in Florida.
00z Best Track down to 90kts.

09W RAMMASUN 140716 0000 14.2N 120.3E WPAC 90 956
Quoting 254. MAweatherboy1:

Next up for the Philippines... well, another close encounter with a typhoon if the GFS is right.



FWIW, the Euro does not show much of anything with this, and the CMC has it, but considerably stronger and also farther north. GFS looks like a reasonable compromise, but we'll have to see how it unfolds as none of the models have done especially well with Rammasun.
Euro didn't show anything with Rammasun at first either, which is a little puzzling. It's usually spot on with actual hurricanes.
Quoting 276. MLTracking:


That's the problem I have with long-range forecasting, theres many variables and each can effect the season drastically. Most problems that have been stated to hinder storms this season are becoming less prevelant.
These include:
-El Nino has not materialized yet, we are likely to see a warm-biased neutral ENSO through the peak of the season.


-MDR SSTs are warming and are now very close to average.


-Tropical waves are likely to be potent again.
-SAL is slowly backing off.

-Shear is also slowly letting up.
JMO based on current trends, I expect a seasonal total of around...
12-15 named storms
5-8 hurricanes
2-3 major hurricanes
ACE: 75 - 110

Agreed. I stick to one to two week predictions in my forecasts.


Upper level conditions becoming more favorable in the MDR, T Waves coming off Africa might bear more watching from now until end of September.

Quoting 280. QueensWreath:

Being that I am in SW Florida I fear a repeat of Cane Charley. Neutral year and fronts coming down(too far south) all summer.I dont like the way things are setting up at all. But I am paranoid that way LOL
?

I don't see much evidence we've had a lot of abnormal frontal activity this summer, save the current shortwave bringing the cool temperatures.
288. silas

Quoting Ameister12:

Eyewall's still evident, but it's pretty ragged. Much of the north side has collapsed.
It's a good thing it was over land as long as it was. An hour or two less and its core may not have collapsed. Unfortunately, its structure is still fairly good so it will likely reorganize quite quickly once it is completely reemerged over water.
289. silas

Quoting WIBadgerWeather:


LOL.

Anyways, we are feeling the vortex here in Wisconsin today. As i'm sure silas, Deep Sea Rising, and any of the other local bloggers can attest, it feels exactly like October out today. It even smells like Autumn!
Well, early October, but yes, definitely! I wouldn't mind if every summer day were like this to be completely honest =)
Quoting 288. silas:


It's a good thing it was over land as long as it was. An hour or two less and its core may not have collapsed. Unfortunately, its structure is still fairly good so it will likely reorganize quite quickly once it is completely reemerged over water.



It's beneficial to intensification that it appears to be much smaller than most western Pacific cyclones. I'd attribute this to its relatively low latitude and lack of appreciable interaction with large-scale mid-latitude synoptics.
I personally find myself adhering to the idea of a warm neutral during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but assigning a probability to it, I'd split the odds [of El Nino and neutral] at 50/50.
Quoting 291. KoritheMan:

I personally find myself adhering to the idea of a warm neutral during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but assigning a probability to it, I'd split the odds [of El Nino and neutral] at 50/50.

I prefer percentages but thats just me :), I'd say theres a 35% chance of El Nino conditions during August-September.
My personal thoughts on whether or not an El Nino develops at all is hovering around 65%, but in the timeframe after early or mid-october.
severe weather in new haven,conn about 1,000 lightning in 1/2 hour long.. lightning everywhere in the sky right now..
Quoting KoritheMan:

?

I don't see much evidence we've had a lot of abnormal frontal activity this summer, save the current shortwave bringing the cool temperatures.


The fronts and lows have been causing repeated "backwards patterns" of storms this season (so far) Thats a repeat of 2004. Thats the only connection. And that can stir up home brew.
Quoting 287. KoritheMan:


?

I don't see much evidence we've had a lot of abnormal frontal activity this summer, save the current shortwave bringing the cool temperatures.



Not sure if you've noticed, but we've had a west flow 95% of the summer rainy season so far as a result of strong east coast troughs. I wouldn't say that necessarily constitutes abnormal frontal activity. However, it has led to very abnormal precip distribution in Florida, because typically we get a substantial amount of an east flow and west flow, not just one or the other.





this weather model is going to be right with the t.storms on land!!
Quoting 259. sar2401:


Very true. The estimates I've read was that the 1815 super eruptions from Tambora as well as a Dalton Minimum in solar activity were enough to lower global temperatures to between 0.5C to 1.0C. Even though that doesn't sound like much, it was enough to cause worldwide crop failures with resultant malnutrition and starvation. There's no reason to think the same wouldn't happen today. This is not to diminish global warming, which is occurring now, but this type of "black swan" event can spring up overnight and threaten us again. It's rare to have a confluence of events cause problems of the magnitude of 1815-1816 but it's not impossible that it could happen again. We are dependent now on things like crop failures only happening in one part of the world and using food production from other parts of the world to make up the difference. I wonder if governments globally have thought about this and have any contingency plans?

As I recall, the ice core data shows another spike in sulfate a few years before the spike from Tambora. Add in the weak sunspot activity and the result was those repeated outbreaks of cold air, with resulting freezes in New England and elsewhere. A similar situation happened after the 1452 Kuwae blast in the South Pacific, impacting China and Europe. That blast may have finished the Viking colony in southern Greenland.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/releases/93/release_1993_ 1543.html

You can bet nobody in government or business is prepared for another of those...
Quoting 295. Jedkins01:



Not sure if you've noticed, but we've had a west flow 95% of the summer rainy season so far as a result of strong east coast troughs. I wouldn't say that necessarily constitutes abnormal frontal activity. However, it has led to very abnormal precip distribution in Florida, because typically we get a substantial amount of an east flow and west flow, not just one or the other.


No I didn't notice, but I don't think that can be attributed to anomalous frontal activity, as you said. The June-July running 30-day 500 mb height anomalies show ridging over the east, not troughing. If there has been a west flow affecting Florida and its rainy season, it's likely something of smaller scale than a synoptic feature like a trough.
Quoting 292. MLTracking:


I prefer percentages but thats just me :), I'd say theres a 35% chance of El Nino conditions during August-September.
My personal thoughts on whether or not an El Nino develops at all is hovering around 65%, but in the timeframe after early or mid-october.


I disagree. Climatologically, most ENSO events mature during the winter, not transition. Since we currently lack an El Nino to fall back on...

Those tropical waves over africa look very potent, they should be particularly helpful in moistening up the MDR a little bit.

Quoting 299. KoritheMan:



I disagree. Climatologically, most ENSO events mature during the winter, not transition. Since we currently lack an El Nino to fall back on...

Since when is early october winter?
Quoting 276. MLTracking:


That's the problem I have with long-range forecasting, theres many variables and each can effect the season drastically. Most problems that have been stated to hinder storms this season are becoming less prevelant.
These include:
-El Nino has not materialized yet, we are likely to see a warm-biased neutral ENSO through the peak of the season.


-MDR SSTs are warming and are now very close to average.


-Tropical waves are likely to be potent again.
-SAL is slowly backing off.

-Shear is also slowly letting up.
JMO based on current trends, I expect a seasonal total of around...
12-15 named storms
5-8 hurricanes
2-3 major hurricanes
ACE: 75 - 110



Nice!
Quoting 301. MLTracking:


Since when is early october winter?


"but in the timeframe after early or mid-october."

You left me with a very ambiguous statement.
More SAL on the way.

Quoting 303. KoritheMan:



"but in the timeframe after early or mid-october."

You left me with a very ambiguous statement.

I'm sorry, I didn't intend to be vague. What I was trying to convey was if an El Nino were to develop at all, I would expect it to be classified as a full-fledged ENSO event around early to mid-october.
Quoting 300. MLTracking:


Those tropical waves over africa look very potent, they should be particularly helpful in moistening up the MDR a little bit.


Yes should give a clear pathway. Giving plenty of rain over the western African countries.
Quoting 305. MLTracking:


I'm sorry, I didn't intend to be vague. What I was trying to convey was if an El Nino were to develop at all, I would expect it to be classified as a full-fledged ENSO event around early to mid-october.


My bad dude. Not the first time something's been miscommunicated and/or misunderstood.

In fact, just the other day at work I... ;)
Quoting 307. KoritheMan:



My bad dude. Not the first time something's been miscommunicated and/or misunderstood.

In fact, just the other day at work I... ;)

No problem, though i'll admit I was somewhat unclear.
Even with or without El-Nino, this winter should still be cold and snowy. It will make up for the slow season.
Looks like the worst of it is past New Haven, CT now and headed NE.
WINDHAM-TOLLAND-HARTFORD-
942 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT WINDHAM...TOLLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN HARTFORD COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR...

AT 938 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PORTLAND CONNECTICUT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM WITH ESTIMATED
RAINFALL RATES UP TO ONE-INCH PER HOUR. MINOR URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADS!

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...SEEK SHELTER OR THE SAFETY OF A CAR.

AND FINALLY...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANCHESTER...EAST HARTFORD...GLASTONBURY...VERNON...MANSFIELD...SOUT H
WINDSOR...WINDHAM...PLAINFIELD...WILLIMANTIC...KI LLINGLY...
ELLINGTON...TOLLAND...COVENTRY...STAFFORD...SOMER S...EAST WINDSOR...
HEBRON...PUTNAM...THOMPSON AND BROOKLYN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET INDOORS WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE...SUCH AS DOWNED BRANCHES. MINOR URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
Spiked my interest as I am originally from CT.
Goodnight. I will hope for some good rain for the Antilles and Puerto Rico before too much longer.
Quoting 309. Climate175:

Even with or without El-Nino, this winter should still be cold and snowy. It will make up for the slow season.


The season hasn't been slow. Statistically, it's been above average.
Quoting 307. KoritheMan:



My bad dude. Not the first time something's been miscommunicated and/or misunderstood.

In fact, just the other day at work I... ;)


What did you do this time, Kori?
Quoting 311. KoritheMan:



The season hasn't been slow. Statistically, it's been above average.


Well behind average in storms, above in hurricanes.
I would just like to note that SAL is not nothing new when it comes to hurricane season..I see a lot people posting the SAL map off of Africa but I just wanted to post some SAL maps during some memoriable hurricane seasons. SAL is not the end all to hurricane formation..

Conducted first-ever SALEX missions during the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season that used the NOAA G-IV jet to investigate the environments of TS Irene and pre Tropical Depression 19 and their interactions with the SAL:
Aug. 07, 2005 (G-IV jet)

Mission Summary :

a) Synoptic Situation
TD #9 emerged from the coast of North Africa as a disorganized AEW on 01 August (Fig. 2). Figure 2 also shows that a very large Saharan Air Layer (SAL) outbreak was located to the north and west of this system at this time. As the system moved across the basin over the next several days, its northwest heading brought it into the SAL and it struggled to intensify. On 05 August, several of the forecast models were suggesting that the system might recurve out to sea before it got into range for SALEX. However, by early morning hours of 06 August, it was clear it would be in range for SALEX and the G-IV was deployed to Barbados.


On the morning of the mission, TD #9 (located at ~20.5°N 45.5°W) was upgraded to Tropical Storm Irene (35 kt)- the earliest forming 'I' storm on record. Most of Irene's deeper convection was located well east of its low-level center and it was on the southern fringes of 20-30 kt of northwesterly shear (Fig. 3, left). This strong shear was being enhanced by an upper-level cold low that was located to the north of Irene (~29.0N 41.0W) and was easily discernable using mid to upper-level water vapor winds from UW-CIMSS (Fig. 3, right).

Debby 2006


Helene 2006
Quoting 295. Jedkins01:



Not sure if you've noticed, but we've had a west flow 95% of the summer rainy season so far as a result of strong east coast troughs. I wouldn't say that necessarily constitutes abnormal frontal activity. However, it has led to very abnormal precip distribution in Florida, because typically we get a substantial amount of an east flow and west flow, not just one or the other.


We had a thunderstorm in the past hour here in Oldsmar - moving from West to East. More on the way.
Quoting 314. ncstorm:

I would just like to note that SAL is not nothing new when it comes to hurricane season..I see a lot people posting the SAL map off of Africa but I just wanted to post some SAL maps during some memoriable hurricane seasons. SAL is not the end all to hurricane formation..

Conducted first-ever SALEX missions during the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season that used the NOAA G-IV jet to investigate the environments of TS Irene and pre Tropical Depression 19 and their interactions with the SAL:
Aug. 07, 2005 (G-IV jet)

Mission Summary :

a) Synoptic Situation
TD #9 emerged from the coast of North Africa as a disorganized AEW on 01 August (Fig. 2). Figure 2 also shows that a very large Saharan Air Layer (SAL) outbreak was located to the north and west of this system at this time. As the system moved across the basin over the next several days, its northwest heading brought it into the SAL and it struggled to intensify. On 05 August, several of the forecast models were suggesting that the system might recurve out to sea before it got into range for SALEX. However, by early morning hours of 06 August, it was clear it would be in range for SALEX and the G-IV was deployed to Barbados.


On the morning of the mission, TD #9 (located at ~20.5°N 45.5°W) was upgraded to Tropical Storm Irene (35 kt)- the earliest forming 'I' storm on record. Most of Irene's deeper convection was located well east of its low-level center and it was on the southern fringes of 20-30 kt of northwesterly shear (Fig. 3, left). This strong shear was being enhanced by an upper-level cold low that was located to the north of Irene (~29.0N 41.0W) and was easily discernable using mid to upper-level water vapor winds from UW-CIMSS (Fig. 3, right).

Debby 2006


Helene 2006



Yeah. SAL is normal. It typically lessens as we had into August and September, but it's one of the main reasons we don't see storms forming along 20, 30, or 40W a lot more often than we actually do.
We've had a glut of rain in Florida.
This is good for our state. We have sandy soil (good drainage) and flora and fauna that rely on wet weather. The rain also cools things off considerably so we are happy with the current trend, generally speaking.
Quoting 313. VAbeachhurricanes:



Well behind average in storms, above in hurricanes.


We're average in named storms. First storm typically arrives July 9. Second doesn't until August 1.
Quoting 312. Astrometeor:



What did you do this time, Kori?


Oh, this new co-manager was telling me to downstack some pallets, except she phrased it a little ambiguously. We had a nice discussion about it. She was almost getting red in the face!
Quoting 318. KoritheMan:



We're average in named storms. First storm typically arrives July 9. Second doesn't until August 1.


Right... so were at about 1.2 storms on average :P
Quoting 311. KoritheMan:



The season hasn't been slow. Statistically, it's been above average.


You know what we had last year? 3 tropical storms. That was "statistically above average". Is "the season will be slow" better for you?
Quoting 313. VAbeachhurricanes:



Well behind average in storms, above in hurricanes.

Well behind? The average total for mid-July is 1-2 tropical storm(s). The majority of activity takes place during August-October. I think we may have a year like 2004, not as in intense hurricanes but the season is very active during the peak months and relatively quiet during the early and late months.
Quoting 322. MLTracking:


Well behind? The average total for mid-July is 1-2 tropical storm(s). The majority of activity takes place during August-October. I think we may have a year like 2004, not as in intense hurricanes but the season is very active during the peak months and relatively quiet during the early and late months.


Sorry I should have put a comma. Well, behind. I did not mean, far behind.
Quoting 323. VAbeachhurricanes:



Sorry I should have put a comma. Well, behind. I did not mean, far behind.

Whoops! Sorry for going off on you like that.
ohmmmmmm'...........


It's only July the 15th.. August and September are always the peak months, heck 2013 was a quiet year and we got two hurricanes in Sept, so it is really only a matter of time now. These waves are getting potent and stronger and once we get into Cape Verde season which begins in August, we will turn our eyes further east.
Quoting 324. MLTracking:


Whoops! Sorry for going off on you like that.


I shall recover :p
Quoting 326. Climate175:

It's only July the 15th.. August and September are always the peak months, heck 2013 was a quiet year and we got two hurricanes in Sept, so it is really only a matter of time now.



evere year is not the same freaking year where not all ways going two have the same set up has the last year had i wish you guys will get that in your heads

and why not i dont think we will see march of any thing for the rest of the season but oh nos what will happen but do not look for any thing two fourm for the rest of july will see what happens in AUGS
Based on the 1995-2013 average (positive AMO era), the average dates for the formation of the first five named storms are as follows...

A: June 19
B: July 15
C: July 26
D: August 5
E: August 17
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Based on the 1995-2013 average (positive AMO era), the average date for the formation of the first five named storms is as follows...

A: June 19
B: July 15
C: July 26
D: August 5
E: August 17


I was just going to ask that. Thanks for a very well timed and informative comment!
Quoting 330. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Based on the 1995-2013 average (positive AMO era), the average date for the formation of the first five named storms is as follows...

A: June 19
B: July 15
C: July 26
D: August 5
E: August 17


Hmm, so what you're telling me is that in 1 hour and 20 minutes, we will be behind by 1 day.

*Looks hard at Kori*
Quoting 333. Astrometeor:



Hmm, so what you're telling me is that in 1 hour and 20 minutes, we will be behind by 1 day.

*Looks hard at Kori*


Technically since it the hurricane season is ran by UTC time...
Quoting 334. VAbeachhurricanes:



Technically since it the hurricane season is ran by UTC time...


Forgot about that. I did EDT since the majority of the bloggers are from that timezone. I would've done CDT, but I was sure Cody would correct me if I did that.
Quoting 335. Astrometeor:



Forgot about that. I did EDT since the majority of the bloggers are from that timezone. I would've done CDT, but I was sure Cody would correct me if I did that.


Cory is a dunce.
Rammasun is passing south of Subic Bay. Appears to be deepening. Subic Bay had sustained winds of 56 mph an hour ago.
Quoting 336. VAbeachhurricanes:



Cory is a dunce.

Who's Cory?
Quoting 338. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Who's Cory?


None of your business.
Quoting 338. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Who's Cory?


Your child with Kori.

:O
Quoting 340. Astrometeor:



Your child with Kori.

:O


Don't give Kori any ideas
Quoting 338. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Who's Cory?
That's what I was thinking. I probably should shut up right now and not get involved.
Quoting 317. Chicklit:

We've had a glut of rain in Florida.
This is good for our state. We have sandy soil (good drainage) and flora and fauna that rely on wet weather. The rain also cools things off considerably so we are happy with the current trend, generally speaking.


We are getting very beneficial heavy rains here on the coastal areas on west side of Florida. It's even more favorable for heavy rain tomorrow.
Evening all. That is an impressive satellite loop for mid-July..

Quoting 343. Jedkins01:



We are getting very beneficial heavy rains here on the coastal areas on west side of Florida. It's even more favorable for heavy rain tomorrow.


Jedkins, you're on the west side? Where abouts?
Quoting Chicklit:
We've had a glut of rain in Florida.
This is good for our state. We have sandy soil (good drainage) and flora and fauna that rely on wet weather. The rain also cools things off considerably so we are happy with the current trend, generally speaking.


Even with the backwards pattern I have been getting rains,so I cant complain too much. But it does make the day more uncomfortable temp wise.
Quoting 341. VAbeachhurricanes:



Don't give Kori any ideas


Too late.
time to watch
Quoting 348. hurricanes2018:

time to watch

That next wave is very impressive.
I hope y'all are having a good summer so far! I haven't been on here too much since there's nothing major to track, plus I'm busy with work and friends.
Quoting 276. MLTracking:


That's the problem I have with long-range forecasting, theres many variables and each can effect the season drastically. Most problems that have been stated to hinder storms this season are becoming less prevelant.
These include:
-El Nino has not materialized yet, we are likely to see a warm-biased neutral ENSO through the peak of the season.
-MDR SSTs are warming and are now very close to average.
-Tropical waves are likely to be potent again.
-SAL is slowly backing off.
-Shear is also slowly letting up.
JMO based on current trends, I expect a seasonal total of around...
12-15 named storms
5-8 hurricanes
2-3 major hurricanes
ACE: 75 - 110



I would point out that it is the global tropical overturning circulation that primarily controls basin-scale TC activity, and even in the absence of an official El Nino in SST readings, the atmosphere is currently behaving very El Nino-like, with June showing upper divergence focused in the Pacific and nowhere else. The tendency of ENSO is often more important than its actual value. The same ENSO levels we have today existed in 2005, but were trending downward with time, which happened to allow the Atlantic to steal most of the upward motion in the tropics.

Quoting 351. Bluestorm5:

I hope y'all are having a good summer so far! I haven't been on here too much since there's nothing major to track, plus I'm busy with work and friends.


"Friends"
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #12
TYPHOON GLENDA
11:00 AM PhST July 16 2014
====================
Typhoon "Glenda" has accelerated while maintaining its strength.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Glenda [RAMMASUN] [967 hPa] located at 14.6N 120.4E or in the vicinity of Bataan has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 13 knots.

Signal Warning #3
-----------------

Luzon Region
===========
1. Zambales
2. Tarlac
3. Pampanga
4. Bataan
5. Bulacan
6. Rizal
7.C avite
8. Lubang Island
9. Pangasinan
10. Metro Manila

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Luzon Region
===========
1. La Union
2. Benguet
3. Nueva Vizcaya
4. Nueva Ecija
5. Southern Aurora
6. Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands
7. Laguna
8. Batangas
9. northern parts of Occidental and Oriental Mindoro

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon region
==========
1. locos Sur
2. Mountain Province
3. Ifugao
4. Quirino
5. Rest of Aurora
6. Camarines
7. Norte
8. Marinduque
9. rest of Occidental and Oriental Mindoro
10. Calamian Group of Islands

Additional Information
====================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #3, #2 & #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges of up to two (2) meters.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15–25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 500 km diameter of the typhoon.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Visayas.

The public and the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (DRRMC) concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Quoting 351. Bluestorm5:

I hope y'all are having a good summer so far! I haven't been on here too much since there's nothing major to track, plus I'm busy with work and friends.


"Neoguri" Now "Rammasun"

"Friends". *Sniffle*. I thought we were friends. :(
Quoting 355. Astrometeor:



"Neoguri" Now "Rammasun"

"Friends". *Sniffle*. I thought we were friends. :(
Quoting 345. GatorWX:



Jedkins, you're on the west side? Where abouts?


Pinellas County, on the bay side of North Pinellas, technically Clearwater by address, but geographically ESE of there.
Quoting 352. Levi32:



I would point out that it is the global tropical overturning circulation that primarily controls basin-scale TC activity, and even in the absence of an official El Nino in SST readings, the atmosphere is currently behaving very El Nino-like, with June showing upper divergence focused in the Pacific and nowhere else. The tendency of ENSO is often more important than its actual value. The same ENSO levels we have today existed in 2005, but were trending downward with time, which happened to allow the Atlantic to steal most of the upward motion in the tropics.



The warm tendency we currently have is without a doubt still going to effect on TC activity within all basins, though significantly less so than the "Super Nino" that many have predicted after witnessing that exceptionally potent kelvin wave back during spring. I'm still adhering to a warm-biased ENSO pattern through the season, and even possibly a mild to moderate El Nino developing somewhere in time.
Rammasun seems to be done with the Phillippines and is now moving away and headed for China.

I think the GFS is correct about this...

Quoting 331. Climate175:




Those two waves could be trouble if it were late August or September.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #44
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON RAMMASUN (1409)
12:00 PM JST July 16 2014
==================================

120 KM west of Manila (Philippines)

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Rammasun (960 hPa) located at 14.5N 119.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 17.0N 115.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 18.8N 111.5E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 20.4N 108.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Gulf Of Tonkin




"So who's excited about another EPAC storm?!?"

*crickets*
I am having the worst street flooding since Tropical Storm Debby 2 years ago. Most of my yard is actually submerged in water 5-6 inches deep!

VERY heavy storms in my area tonight- I have had over 3 inches of rain and 40 mph wind gusts with 3 rounds of rain and another heavy line of storms offshore on the way.

Wunderground radar shows 2 inches accumulated but it often underestimates tropical type rain, as we have seen. In addition, the radar shows an area of 4-6 inches of rain just South of Tampa.
Quoting 288. silas:


It's a good thing it was over land as long as it was. An hour or two less and its core may not have collapsed. Unfortunately, its structure is still fairly good so it will likely reorganize quite quickly once it is completely reemerged over water.



It already looks like it's trying to tighten up again.





Strong is right, it should come into Hainan Island as a cat.3 and into Laos and Vietnam as a cat.2.
Quoting 363. WIBadgerWeather:

"So who's excited about another EPAC storm?!?"

*crickets*


No one, because that's not an EPac storm. Look at where it is. Once it crosses the 140 line, it's in the Central Pacific and is outside of the NHC's area of responsibility.
Last TRMM pass for Rammasun. Click pic for large quicktime movie.
Quoting 364. StPetersburgFL:

I am having the worst street flooding since Tropical Storm Debby 2 years ago. Most of my yard is actually submerged in water 5-6 inches deep!

VERY heavy storms in my area tonight- I have had over 3 inches of rain and 40 mph wind gusts with 3 rounds of rain and another heavy line of storms offshore on the way.

Wunderground radar shows 2 inches accumulated but it often underestimates tropical type rain, as we have seen. In addition, the radar shows an area of 4-6 inches of rain just South of Tampa.
More on the way. I love the sound of Thunder at night.

more rain for the northeast on Wednesday!!! to much rain!!
A couple of models have been hinting at the potential for an Arthur like low to be left dangling after this front, 00Z nam does it too.

No models have forecasted development, but we iknown what can happen when a low sits over the gulf stream.

Quoting 368. GTstormChaserCaleb:

More on the way. I love the sound of Thunder at night.


It has a different sound than during the day?
Quoting 356. Climate175:


OMG I love that girl she rocks. I see her every night when I watch the episodes online.
Quoting 321. Astrometeor:



You know what we had last year? 3 tropical storms. That was "statistically above average". Is "the season will be slow" better for you?
We have been spoil for the past 3 three years getting systems early in the season.
Quoting 365. WIBadgerWeather:



It already looks like it's trying to tighten up again.





Strong is right, it should come into Hainan Island as a cat.3 and into Laos and Vietnam as a cat.2.
Hainan might be spared if the cone continues to move south and Vietnam might get the blow, but for some reason Vietnam usually doesn't get hit by something cat 3 up.
The Philippines destroyed Typhoon Rammasun. Very ragged and oblong satellite appearance. The 0116z ASCAT didn't sample winds higher than 45 mph throughout the entire western half of the circulation, and that was only one barb.

I assume there are stronger winds on the east side of the storm, but this isn't a Category 2 equivalent anymore.

Quoting 331. Climate175:




I see August seeds over africa taking shape. May be September however with these jet anomalies.

Our rain is done, darn it. Ended up with 0.60" plus maybe a trace from a later passing shower. As usual, I missed most of the heavier rain, with Dothan, 50 miles south of me, getting almost 2 inches in some torrential downpours, but at least we had some. It's 73 now with a dewpoint of 72 so we'll probably get some patchy fog overnight.

The temperature gradient is a little odd, with Detroit at 64, Huntsville at 67, Birmingham at 69, and Montgomery at 73. Not much of an obvious cold air intrusion on that route. The front is pretty hard to discern at the surface now but you can see the stalling front between Montgomery and me on water vapor. It is 4 degrees cooler now than this time last night but most of that is because of the wet ground. It's supposed to get down to 67 tomorrow night with lower humidity before the southerly flow and humidity return on Thursday. It may not sound like much but I'll take it and be glad. :-)
Are patterns in the jet stream setting up for an epic NE and Midwest winter again? And if so, and we exceed what we saw last year in cold and snow totals, what is this potentially telling for a GW cooling winter period that may excel down the road?
Quoting 375. sar2401:

Our rain is done, darn it. Ended up with 0.60" plus maybe a trace from a later passing shower. As usual, I missed most of the heavier rain, with Dothan, 50 miles south of me, getting almost 2 inches in some torrential downpours, but at least we had some. It's 73 now with a dewpoint of 72 so we'll probably get some patchy fog overnight.

The temperature gradient is a little odd, with Detroit at 64, Huntsville at 67, Birmingham at 69, and Montgomery at 73. Not much of an obvious cold air intrusion on that route. The front is pretty hard to discern at the surface now but you can see the stalling front between Montgomery and me on water vapor. It is 4 degrees cooler now than this time last night but most of that is because of the wet ground. It's supposed to get down to 67 tomorrow night with lower humidity before the southerly flow and humidity return on Thursday. It may not sound like much but I'll take it and be glad. :-)


Down to 47 maybe lower tonight, not bad for me, but for my folks and Southern folks in general, that would be parka weather indeed. :)
Hey sar, it's currently 61 at my house (Nashville) with a humidity of 22%. We could get close to some daily record lows overnight.

Edit: Night blog.
Quoting 364. StPetersburgFL:

I am having the worst street flooding since Tropical Storm Debby 2 years ago. Most of my yard is actually submerged in water 5-6 inches deep!

VERY heavy storms in my area tonight- I have had over 3 inches of rain and 40 mph wind gusts with 3 rounds of rain and another heavy line of storms offshore on the way.

Wunderground radar shows 2 inches accumulated but it often underestimates tropical type rain, as we have seen. In addition, the radar shows an area of 4-6 inches of rain just South of Tampa.
way
Good morning, but unfortunately with sad news:

Typhoon Rammasun kills 12 in Philippines
Jim Gomez and Oliver Teves, The Associated Press, Published Wednesday, July 16, 2014 6:17AM EDT
MANILA, Philippines -- A typhoon left at least 12 people dead, knocked out power in many areas, damaged a parked plane but spared the Philippine capital on Wednesday when its fierce wind shifted, officials said.
Still, Typhoon Rammasun's winds of 150 kilometres per hour and blinding 185-kph gusts brought down trees, electric posts and ripped off roofs across the capital of 12 million people, shutting government offices and schools. More than 370,000 people moved from high-risk villages to emergency shelters in six provinces. ...
Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/typhoon-rammasun-kills -12-in-philippines-1.1915856#ixzz37cv9Z9y6
Got some blue.
cool outside maybe windchill in the upper 60s e cen fl.
I had huge rain overnight easily 4 rounds of heavy storms
386. MahFL
Quoting 373. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Philippines destroyed Typhoon Rammasun.


That is in inaccurate statement, Rammasun is forecast to be back up to 105kts in 24 hours.
hotter it gets more it rains today
Quoting 376. DeepSeaRising:

Are patterns in the jet stream setting up for an epic NE and Midwest winter again? And if so, and we exceed what we saw last year in cold and snow totals, what is this potentially telling for a GW cooling winter period that may excel down the road?

Not quite sure what you're asking. The CPC is calling for this winter to be warmer than normal in much of Alaska and along the northern tier of states, cooler than normal throughout the South, and roughly normal most everywhere else. But even if this forecast doesn't pan out--that is, even if the Midwest and the Northeast are plagued once again by recurring outbreaks of deep cold and/or heavy snow--that says nothing about any future "GW cooling" period. The planet continues its long-term warmup, as does the United States. So while there will always be occasional Arctic blasts in the future (when "Nature leaves the freezer door open", to use Dr. Masters' colorful words), those are extremes away from the trend.

389. beell
ATL tropics seem quiet this morning.

I would expect lowered pressures over the central Gulf this weekend into the start of next week. The deep trough over the eastern US should leave a gaping weakness in the summertime ridge and a chance at blobmosis at the tail of the front near the north central gulf/gulf coast beneath benign upper level winds and pooling surface moisture along the coast.
Very wet morning across north Florida. Should be a stormy day for most of the state today with a westerly flow a head of the stalled out front.
Half way thru July and already 9.02" of rain and by the looks of this we may have a chance at getting over 15" for the month.

Storm pic from Deltona on Monday.

Quoting 384. islander101010:

cool outside maybe windchill in the upper 60s e cen fl.


Yeah right! 77 with a 76 dewpoint here in Orlando. Maybe that windchill is coming from you air conditioned house so if I was you I would close the door so that you don't run up your electric bill.

Quoting hydrus:


It's pretty remarkable how a relatively small stretch of land (still surrounded by warm tropical waters for inflow) can weaken a tropical system so quickly.
I'm sure the higher terrian played the major role in the weakening.
But Typhoon Rammasun forward speed moved it through the mountain region rather quickly.

Topographic map for people of interest.
This strike here is from Orlando.

Quoting 391. Sfloridacat5:

Very wet morning across north Florida. Should be a stormy day for most of the state today with a westerly flow a head of the stalled out front.

Good morning. Woke up to 51 degrees. I miss Florida, but this is nice for Mid July.
Quoting 344. GatorWX:

Evening all. That is an impressive satellite loop for mid-July..


Looks like mid-September!


China floods: Ancient town of Fenghuang submerged in water
BBC 15 July 2014 Last updated at 22:59 BST
The ancient Chinese town of Fenghuang has been submerged in water after severe storms battered the region. More than 50,000 people have been forced to leave their homes amid power cuts and flooding. Fenghuang is more than 300 years old and is currently being considered for UNESCO World Heritage Status. Claire Brennan reports.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah right! 77 with a 76 dewpoint here in Orlando. Maybe that windchill is coming from you air conditioned house so if I was you I would close the door so that you don't run up your electric bill.



I was going to say something, but I wasn't sure if it was a joke or not.
I'm sitting at 79 degrees with 92% humidity over here. The air is so thick you could cut it with a knife.
We already had a few weak showers pass through the area this morning. Picked up just under 3" in my weather station yesterday.
I posted yesterday that some areas have recieved over 20" of rain in the past 30 days in parts of Collier county.
Another subsurface warm pool in the making? It looks as if El-Nino may actually get declared over the next month or 2.


Quoting 400. Sfloridacat5:



I was going to say something, but I wasn't sure if it was a joke or not.
I'm sitting at 79 degrees with 92% humidity over here. The air is so thick you could cut it with a knife.
We already had a few weak showers pass through the area this morning. Picked up just under 3" in my weather station yesterday.
I posted yesterday that some areas have recieved over 20" of rain in the past 30 days in parts of Collier county.


Over 20" around here in spots as well specifically northern Brevard County around the Mims area which has been inundated this month with excessive rains every day. All of this rain is causing a pretty significant rise on the St. Johns River at Lake Monroe. Water level is getting very high now and could result in flooding by the end of this month.
Good Morning.  No crayons in the E-Pac but some very healthy blobs along the Pacific ITCZ flowing off of the South America coast this morning. They are all just barely below 10N so no coreolis effect because of their low latitude.  Several of the last few E-Pac storms actually developed from the Central American monsoon trof in the higher latitudes closer to the Yucatan and Mexico; currently clear in that more favorable region.  Just noting that we are talking about the same ITCZ that stretches from the Atlantic to the Pacific Basin but the Pacific side is much healthier at the moment because SAL does not reach the Pacific side; notice the SAL related suppression on the Atlantic side of the waves along the same latitude line (from 5N to 10N):
   
Argalasti / Paltsi beach, Greece waterspouts – July 15, 2014
Greece saw some of the best waterspouts this season today. Several large waterspouts formed offshore Argalasti / Paltsi beach, Greece this morning. The biggest spectacle was made by twin massive waterspouts ...
Impressive photo gallery

Rain starting to fill in to the south. Should see a lot of rain from Tampa over to Orlando by this afternoon.
406. MahFL
Quoting 401. StormTrackerScott:
It looks as if El-Nino may actually get declared over the next month or 2.


No no no no, definitely not...
373. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:52 AM GMT on July 16, 2014
The Philippines destroyed Typhoon Rammasun. Very ragged and oblong satellite appearance. The 0116z ASCAT didn't sample winds higher than 45 mph throughout the entire western half of the circulation, and that was only one barb.

I assume there are stronger winds on the east side of the storm, but this isn't a Category 2 equivalent anymore.



I noticed that last night when Rammasun attempted his pass through the Bay of Manilla his eye wall collapsed almost completely and very rapid at that. Think his small circulation at that time finally ran into some unfriendly terrain.
It was interesting to see it strengthening over that peninsula arcing back to the east south east of Manila. He was pulling in water from all quadrants and the land he was over was small, flat, and very tropical. It almost seemed like he used the land to tighten up his eye.
I'd say Rammasun will not get back above a Category 2. His core was ripped to shreds, you could really see it well on radar last night, although he is attempting to rebuild it, I think it will take a lot of time. I wonder how much down sloping off the west side of the Philippines helped disrupt his core, you can see what looks like some possible dry air entrapment on his north side right now.
Rammasun/Glenda on the blue marble:

And finally, current SSTs in the Atlantic basin; marginal temps along the Atlantic ITCZ, and just to it's North because of the cooling effect from all the SAL in recent weeks but very warm in the Caribbean, Gulf, and the SE Coast:Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temps
Quoting 396. StormTrackerScott:

This strike here is from Orlando.




You never hear about the potential for increased lightning in a warming world to act as a positive feedback effect. But it creates ozone and nitrous oxide, both very powerful greenhouse gases, and also causes wildfires which release CO2 and methane.

There may be many feedback effects that we don't have a handle on.
Quoting 389. beell:

ATL tropics seem quiet this morning.

I would expect lowered pressures over the central Gulf this weekend into the start of next week. The deep trough over the eastern US should leave a gaping weakness in the summertime ridge and a chance at blobmosis at the tail of the front near the north central gulf/gulf coast beneath benign upper level winds and pooling surface moisture along the coast.


Interesting observation.

On this date, July 16, 1997, a tropical depression formed in the central Gulf of Mexico. It eventually became Hurricane Danny. The hurricane originated from a low pressure system that moved off the continental USA, and formed over the GOM. Danny moved across the mouth of the Miss River, and into Mobile Bay, AL. Not saying that scenario will happen this time .... but we always have to keep an eye on any cold fronts that dip into the warm waters of the Gulf, especially in July .

Hurricane Danny's formation appears to be similar to the way Hurricane Arthur formed (July 2014), off of the SE USA coast, before moving ashore near Cape Lookout ... and brushing the Outer Banks, NC.

Just a little hurricane history this morning!

We are feeling a lot drier now that the "cold front/wind shift" is moving across the central GULF COAST this morning. It feels like Autumn is in the air. That wont last very long, so enjoy it while it lasts!
Quoting 395. Sfloridacat5:



It's pretty remarkable how a relatively small stretch of land (still surrounded by warm tropical waters for inflow) can weaken a tropical system so quickly.
I'm sure the higher terrian played the major role in the weakening.
But Typhoon Rammasun forward speed moved it through the mountain region rather quickly.

Topographic map for people of interest.

The Philippines is a tumultuous place. Volcanoes, earthquakes, and typhoons threaten the region and take many lives. In July of 1990, the islands were struck by a 7.8 earth centered near Luzon killing 1621 people. Less than a year later, Mount Pinatubo erupted while a typhoon Yunya was moving in on them killing 847 people. The eruption did have an effect on the planets atmosphere.


Space Shuttle (Mission STS-43) photograph of the Earth over South America taken on August 8, 1991, showing double layer of Pinatubo aerosol cloud (dark streaks) above high cumulonimbus tops...This link is definitely worth the time...Link

The eruption column of Mount Pinatubo on June 12, 1991, three days before the climactic eruption.
Quoting 409. weathermanwannabe:

And finally, current SSTs in the Atlantic basin; marginal temps along the Atlantic ITCZ, and just to it's North because of the cooling effect from all the SAL in recent weeks but very warm in the Caribbean, Gulf, and the SE Coast:Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temps


Once again it is alarming to notice the increased SST and TCHP from 20N to 30N just to the east of Florida. Seems like a new normal for that region.
From flood to a drought developing across the FL Panhandle. Here across the FL Penisula we just continue to get wetter.

Four more weeks before we start the relatively short climb to the peak of the season from late-August to the end of September; right around the corner.  Also a good time to start keeping a close eye on conditions in Africa in terms of SAL issues and how the waves embedded in the African Easterlies are looking; they should start to look healthier over the coming weeks as their rainy season peaks in August/September as well which provides the seeds for the Cape Verde season.  Here is today's image of Africa:
 
Some recent weather/climate-news from Norway with special greetings to Grothar ...

Norway's reindeers thrive in climate change
The Local, published: 16 Jul 2014 09:19 GMT+02:00
Floods. Rising temperatures. Natural disasters. You'll need more than good old-fashioned climate change to stop Norway's hardiest of animals, the arctic reindeer.
Researchers claim the adverse change in weather conditions is not threatening reindeer in northern Norway.
A study by scientists from The University of Manchester and the Norwegian Arctic University in Tromsø looked at reindeer herds in the region of Svalbard.
They found the rising temperatures are actually encouraging the populations to grow. The numbers of Svalbard reindeer have increased by 30 percent in the last year. ...


Family of four struck by one lightning bolt
The Local, published: 15 Jul 2014 00:46 GMT+02:00
Four members of the same family were all struck by a lightning bolt on Saturday in Rennebu, South Trøndelag. Around 5pm on Saturday, a married couple, both 57 years old, and their son, 24, and daughter, 23, were all admitted to St Olav's Hospital. ...

Farmers get record cash for climate damage
The Local, Published: 13 Jul 2014 19:18 GMT+02:00
Norwegian farmers got record compensation from the government as a result of extreme weather wrecking their crops, said a report. ...


Typhoon Yunya was a major typhoon that struck the Philippines at the time of the colossal eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991. A small tropical cyclone, Yunya rapidly developed from a tropical disturbance near East Samar on June 11. By June 13 the storm had reached typhoon status as it moved west-northwest near the Philippines. Yunya attained its peak intensity the following day with estimated winds of 195 km/h (120 mph);[nb 1] however, strong wind shear soon impacted the typhoon and caused it to rapidly decay. The storm struck southern Luzon early on June 15 as a minimal typhoon before moving over the South China Sea later that day. After turning north and weakening to a tropical depression, the system brushed the southern tip of Taiwan on June 16 before dissipating the following day.

Across the Philippines, Yunya produced heavy rains that triggered significant flooding. Hundreds of homes and several bridges were washed away by swollen rivers. Four people were killed as a direct result of the storm and three others were listed as missing. Although the storm itself caused significant damage, the worst effects were related to the system's heavy rains mixing with volcanic ash from Pinatubo. The combined effects of both natural disasters created numerous large lahars that killed 250%u2013300 people
Lots of lightning heading this way.

Quoting 370. VAbeachhurricanes:

A couple of models have been hinting at the potential for an Arthur like low to be left dangling after this front, 00Z nam does it too.

No models have forecasted development, but we iknown what can happen when a low sits over the gulf stream.




This may be that.

LOL just had to show you guys my WU forecast

Overcast

72.1 °F Feels Like 72.0 °F N0.0 Wind Variable Gusts 0 mph

Today is forecast to be WARMER than yesterday. Morning showers and thunderstorms.


Today High 92 | Low 74 °F 50% Chance of Precip.
Yesterday High 133 | Low 71.6 °F


I just don't know if I can take another yesterday, only worse. This is 78645
421. beell
Quoting 411. Stormwatch247:



Interesting observation.

On this date, July 16, 1997, a tropical depression formed in the central Gulf of Mexico. It eventually became Hurricane Danny. The hurricane originated from a low pressure system that moved off the continental USA, and formed over the GOM. Danny moved across the mouth of the Miss River, and into Mobile Bay, AL...


There sure is some similarity in the synoptics. Although the broad trough may be a bit weaker and that may translate to a weaker surface signature. And it may have been a little bit unusual for Danny to stay over water long enough to develop that close to the beach.

Thanks for the history lesson!
disturbance forming north of Bermuda, a circulation is forming underneath moderate to weak convection and wind shear is currently 10 knots, about to be in the 10-20 knots range. NHC hasn't put anything on it yet, which means its likely doomed as it heads NNW into cooler waters and higher shear and might not get enough time to develop tropically.
Rare July cold front approaching Houston today.
Cannot remember the last time this godsend occurred.

Published July 16, 2014.
Donald Williams left his home at 1:45 PM in the afternoon to visit family last Friday, he says by 2:20 PM the sinkhole appeared that quickly. He received the call that a sinkhole had opened across the street from his house. He figured it would be pretty minor, but came home to see his entire road was blocked off and the sinkhole was quite large. "I never thought that I'd be worried about a sinkhole. Lo and behold, I come home and I was like, 'Whoa.'" The sinkhole is located on Celosia Way off of Country Kitchen Road in Madison, Florida. Madison is a small town about an hour east of Tallahassee. Geologists are now studying the hole as it continues to grow bigger. Celosia Way around Williams' home is shut down, but he's able to get in and out. Even though the large hole is directly across the street, he says he has no plans on leaving his home, unless the cracks get closer. More http://bit.ly/U9zuVJ


Have a nice and safe day everyone!
They are coming out of the woodwork......

I’m Baaaack…..
By: SteveGregory , 8:01 AM EDT on July 16, 2014

Link
Quoting 414. StormTrackerScott:

From flood to a drought developing across the FL Panhandle. Here across the FL Penisula we just continue to get wetter.



Actually it's probably a dissipating drought in the Panhandle. We just got back into a more rainy pattern several days ago after going about 2 weeks without rain (at my location at least).

Quoting yonzabam:


You never hear about the potential for increased lightning in a warming world to act as a positive feedback effect. But it creates ozone and nitrous oxide, both very powerful greenhouse gases, and also causes wildfires which release CO2 and methane.

There may be many feedback effects that we don't have a handle on.
Oh, we get plenty of lightning chatter out here in the West where lightning is causing ever increasing numbers of wildland fires. Currently, 5 of the top 11 featured news stories at our local TV web site are lightning caused fire stories.
Quoting 424. barbamz:

This happened to doppler22 a few weeks ago, too!..
West Pacific

93W

94W

95W

Rammasun
Quoting 401. StormTrackerScott:
Another subsurface warm pool in the making? It looks as if El-Nino may actually get declared over the next month or 2.


You are going to be lost if El-Nino is not declared!
Quoting 418. StormTrackerScott:

Lots of lightning heading this way.




We had a very intense back building, or training storm last night around 1130-1200. Picked up close to 3.5" in about an hour and a half. Not only was the rain very intense, but the lightning was as well. My neighbors transformer on their pole got hit, and with that my internet went out or I'd have blogged about it last night. My power flickered three times and went out once for 10-15 mins. It was eerily similar to another training storm we had early one morning last June. In that we got about 6-7" in 3.5 hrs. The pattern was somewhat similar with a trof present to our north, but it wasn't nearly as amplified as the current one. These patterns this summer and last are not our ordinary pattern and I find it interesting, their persistence and longevity. I will upload some pics if I can from my phone of the radar shots. I have both cells I spoke of saved. Unfortunately, both are zoomed in over my area and don't illustrate the overall dynamics very well. I'd really like to understand these types of storms. They're incredibly productive and quite an interesting phenomenon in my opinion. More cells moving on shore now too. Been a strange summer for us weather-wise so far and as I said, quite similar to last.
Quoting 392. StormTrackerScott:

Half way thru July and already 9.02" of rain and by the looks of this we may have a chance at getting over 15" for the month.




Too bad this pattern couldn't stick around longer, the fast flow combined with the upper trough is making use of the warm gulf waters. We are finally getting a lot after a much drier than average June, we're up to just under 7 inches for July so far.

We had multiple rounds of very heavy rain and lots of lightning last night with over 1.6 inches of rain, today we should see even more, which is great news for the west coast of FL

This is more like what we usually see with a west flow, weak upper energy combined with convergence over the warm water and deep tropical moisture to cause multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

The thing is, each group of cells will only last about 5-10 minutes from the quick movement, but rainfall rates are very high in this airmass, so areas where multiple bands setup could get several inches, similar to yesterday, but more enhanced due to piece of short wave energy moving in.

Quoting 402. StormTrackerScott:



Over 20" around here in spots as well specifically northern Brevard County around the Mims area which has been inundated this month with excessive rains every day. All of this rain is causing a pretty significant rise on the St. Johns River at Lake Monroe. Water level is getting very high now and could result in flooding by the end of this month.


Last 30 days...



the water is getting very warm on the east coast!!

Image of
Quoting 412. hydrus:

The Philippines is a tumultuous place. Volcanoes, earthquakes, and typhoons threaten the region and take many lives. In July of 1990, the islands were struck by a 7.8 earth centered near Luzon killing 1621 people. Less than a year later, Mount Pinatubo erupted while a typhoon Yunya was moving in on them killing 847 people. The eruption did have an effect on the planets atmosphere.


Space Shuttle (Mission STS-43) photograph of the Earth over South America taken on August 8, 1991, showing double layer of Pinatubo aerosol cloud (dark streaks) above high cumulonimbus tops...This link is definitely worth the time...Link

The eruption column of Mount Pinatubo on June 12, 1991, three days before the climactic eruption.


Here's an image of Typhoon Yunya with the eruption of Pinatubo.
I'm not happy, we are going to be rainless for the next 2 days from this stupid cold front with its stupid dry air.
Quoting 432. GatorWX:



We had a very intense back building, or training storm last night around 1130-1200. Picked up close to 3.5" in about an hour and a half. Not only was the rain very intense, but the lightning was as well. My neighbors transformer on their pole got hit, and with that my internet went out or I'd have blogged about it last night. My power flickered three times and went out once for 10-15 mins. It was eerily similar to another training storm we had early one morning last June. In that we got about 6-7" in 3.5 hrs. The pattern was somewhat similar with a trof present to our north, but it wasn't nearly as amplified as the current one. These patterns this summer and last are not our ordinary pattern and I find it interesting at their persistence and longevity. I will upload some pics if I can from my phone of the radar shots. I have both cells I spoke of save on radar saved. Unfortunately, both are zoomed in over my area and don't illustrate the overall dynamics very well. I'd really like to understand these types of storms. They're incredibly productive and quite a phenomenon in my opinion. More cells moving on shore now too. Been a strange summer for us weather-wise so far and as I said, quite similar to last.


Well actually, when we do normally get a west flow, which doesn't happen as often normally as it has this year, we see this more often. Usually it takes a strong trough to displace high pressure enough for a west flow. This does happen pretty much ever year at least occasionally. Typically, the energy that replaces the ridge south does weaken by the time it reaches us, however, it only takes very weak upper energy combined with such warm waters and deep moisture to generate very heavy rain.

The atmospheric profile reveals a very warm and nearly saturated throughout much of the troposphere, its also very warm with depth. That is, lapse rates are pretty weak until you get very high up into the atmosphere. This airmass is very similar to what is found in a tropical cyclone, and is common when troughs hang around the deep south or gulf coast. That is why the rain and thunderstorms appear a bit different, and they are.

I've always beneficial interested in tropical convection myself, as it always feels a lot more vigorous to experience than it looks on radar. Every little cell produces crazy amounts of rain and wind.

BTW, a great place to learn more is to access the AMS journals and search through articles on warm process rain, that's how I first learned about it. Also I will learn more about it in an atmospheric physics class this Fall semester, which I'm looking forward to.
Quoting 436. Supportstorm:


Image of

Here's an image of Typhoon Yunya with the eruption of Pinatubo.
That is a great pic..Thank you very much for posting it.
Relentless shear in the Caribbean. Hard to imagine this abating any time soon. Been 30-50 kts all season, so far.

Sorry to hear about so many deaths in the Philippines. A lot of damage and flooding. I'm sure Doc Masters will be on shortly with an update.
Quoting 438. Jedkins01:



Well actually, when we do normally get a west flow, which doesn't happen as often normally as it has this year, we see this more often. Usually it takes a strong trough to displace high pressure enough for a west flow. This does happen pretty much ever year at least occasionally. Typically, the energy that replaces the ridge south does weaken by the time it reaches us, however, it only takes very weak upper energy combined with such warm waters and deep moisture to generate very heavy rain.

The atmospheric profile reveals a very warm and nearly saturated throughout much of the troposphere, its also very warm with depth. That is, lapse rates are pretty weak until you get very high up into the atmosphere. This airmass is very similar to what is found in a tropical cyclone, and is common when troughs hang around the deep south or gulf coast. That is why the rain and thunderstorms appear a bit different, and they are.

I've always beneficial interested in tropical convection myself, as it always feels a lot more vigorous to experience than it looks on radar. Every little cell produces crazy amounts of rain and wind.

BTW, a great place to learn more is to access the AMS journals and search through articles on warm process rain, that's how I first learned about it. Also I will learn more about it in an atmospheric physics class this Fall semester, which I'm looking forward to.


Thanks for info. The two storms I referred to were more akin to a single cell just sitting and dumping and not a continuous flow of cells. Neither of them ever moved ashore until they essentially ran out of juice. It seems a tug and pull in different layers of the atmosphere. The heavy rain was very isolated both times to the immediate coast where I am and as I said, neither wanted to move ashore. I don't know if the scenario meets the classic definition of training storms, but back-building. I'll upload radar in a min.
Watch for this wave when it moves into the Atlantic.

Quoting 432. GatorWX:



We had a very intense back building, or training storm last night around 1130-1200. Picked up close to 3.5" in about an hour and a half. Not only was the rain very intense, but the lightning was as well. My neighbors transformer on their pole got hit, and with that my internet went out or I'd have blogged about it last night. My power flickered three times and went out once for 10-15 mins. It was eerily similar to another training storm we had early one morning last June. In that we got about 6-7" in 3.5 hrs. The pattern was somewhat similar with a trof present to our north, but it wasn't nearly as amplified as the current one. These patterns this summer and last are not our ordinary pattern and I find it interesting, their persistence and longevity. I will upload some pics if I can from my phone of the radar shots. I have both cells I spoke of saved. Unfortunately, both are zoomed in over my area and don't illustrate the overall dynamics very well. I'd really like to understand these types of storms. They're incredibly productive and quite an interesting phenomenon in my opinion. More cells moving on shore now too. Been a strange summer for us weather-wise so far and as I said, quite similar to last.
Oh yeah I got that also around midnight..intense booming and Real heavy rain.
florida thunderstorms=tropical storm conditions lucky they dont last long
Last night:


Last June:


Unfortunately, with this new version of WU, I can no longer view 40 frame radar/save it on my phone. Also, due to it being Extremely! slow, can't blog either. I sure wish they just left it alone. Even blogging now on my PC is not as easy. I know about classic and it doesn't work on my phone and I don't care much for it either on my PC. I just want the previous version back, which is unavailable. Out of my hands though.. :/
Quoting 442. hydrus:




Very interesting for July.
This could be a significant WPAC storm in a few days. Conditions are very good.

Quoting 266. TylerStanfield:

Though it'll be a struggle, it's worth noting that we may see our first decent system out in the eastern Atlantic over the next few days.


The red shaded areas indicate the regions that I believe could see the potential for tropical cyclone development over the next 10 days.
Though It seems that the main focus of energy will remain in the Pacific until the end of the month.

This a very likely possibility as some of the factors continue to show some signs of favorable conditions.
Quoting 450. Grothar:

This could be a significant WPAC storm in a few days. Conditions are very good.




Seems as if any system that develops this year will have that potential. Ripe over there!
Quoting GatorWX:


We had a very intense back building, or training storm last night around 1130-1200. Picked up close to 3.5" in about an hour and a half. Not only was the rain very intense, but the lightning was as well. My neighbors transformer on their pole got hit, and with that my internet went out or I'd have blogged about it last night. My power flickered three times and went out once for 10-15 mins. It was eerily similar to another training storm we had early one morning last June. In that we got about 6-7" in 3.5 hrs. The pattern was somewhat similar with a trof present to our north, but it wasn't nearly as amplified as the current one. These patterns this summer and last are not our ordinary pattern and I find it interesting, their persistence and longevity. I will upload some pics if I can from my phone of the radar shots. I have both cells I spoke of saved. Unfortunately, both are zoomed in over my area and don't illustrate the overall dynamics very well. I'd really like to understand these types of storms. They're incredibly productive and quite an interesting phenomenon in my opinion. More cells moving on shore now too. Been a strange summer for us weather-wise so far and as I said, quite similar to last.


A back building storm flooded my house on June 10. I had 5" of rain in three hours and four of those in the last hour. There was nothing on radar three hours prior. It formed just to my southwest as an innocuous little shower, dropped a quick quarter inch, moved northeast and then slowly built back over us enlarging to about an 8x12 kilometer area of cells and dropping the remaining 4.8 inches. It finally propagated slowly to my south. I was nervous when I saw steady winds out of the cell against the weak large scale southwest flow and the cell wouldn't clear my area. A similar situation, also flooding my home, happened July 4, 2004.
Quoting 449. GatorWX:



Very interesting for July.

Very wonderful for TX in July... anything to keep that Death Ridge from getting a footing...
Keeps our tropical window open for a lot longer.
Quoting yonzabam:


You never hear about the potential for increased lightning in a warming world to act as a positive feedback effect. But it creates ozone and nitrous oxide, both very powerful greenhouse gases, and also causes wildfires which release CO2 and methane.

There may be many feedback effects that we don't have a handle on.


The nitrous oxide quickly dissolves in water and comes down in rain. It is a significant source of nitrogen for vegetation. I don't know if lightning is a significant source of low level ozone. I think photochemical reactions between hydrocarbon vapors and oxygen excited by sunlight, is a larger term. Ozone is a serious low level pollutant and causes both lung damage and agricultural damage.
We had over 4 inches of rain at Raleigh-Durham airport yesterday, with most falling within a couple of hours. Even though it was only two inches in downtown Raleigh, my gutters overflowed for about the fifth time in a few weeks. We do not seem to be having more storms but the ones we do have seem to be more intense. Anyone seen any literature on the storm intensity patterns under climate change. I may need to get wider gutters if this keeps up
Intense storms fired over east el paso last night...got just under 2/10ths of rain...........yep....a deluge....at the airport though they got quite less at 0.03....
Quoting 443. GatorWX:



Thanks for info. The two storms I referred to were more akin to a single cell just sitting and dumping and not a continuous flow of cells. Neither of them ever moved ashore until they essentially ran out of juice. It seems a tug and pull in different layers of the atmosphere. The heavy rain was very isolated both times to the immediate coast where I am and as I said, neither wanted to move ashore. I don't know if the scenario meets the classic definition of training storms, but back-building. I'll upload radar in a min.


Sometimes thunderstorms can appear to be moving in such situations, but what was creating the stationary heavy rain is probably a stationary convergence zone near the surface, with divergence behind it at the surface to your east. I'm not sure exactly how or why it happens. But I think an outflow boundary moving west from the rain cooled air over land probably stalled near the coast. This is common in this type of pattern, and its common for such boundaries to stall near the coast. The fast flowing air was probably converging into your area and lifting over the boundary, probably followed by sinking air just a bit inland.

I don't know if that was the cause for sure, but I know it can be the case sometimes, that would be my best hypothesis.
Another subsurface warm pool in the making? It looks as if El-Nino may actually get declared over the next month or 2.



LOL......you keep calling those dates....eventually you'll get it right scott......from winter.....well...you get the point...LOL....happy wednesday
Tremendous lightning display going on here on the westside of Longwood.

WHOOHOOO......we're forecast to get up to another quarter inch in the next 7 days.....could be flooding

Quoting 455. redwagon:


Very wonderful for TX in July... anything to keep that Death Ridge from getting a footing...
Keeps our tropical window open for a lot longer.


:) Enjoy! Sweltering here too. Temps aren't too high, but moisture content is! Very tropical everyday lately. RH been consistently hovering 80-90%, even early AM.
Quoting 420. redwagon:

LOL just had to show you guys my WU forecast

Overcast

72.1 °F Feels Like 72.0 °F N0.0 Wind Variable Gusts 0 mph

Today is forecast to be WARMER than yesterday. Morning showers and thunderstorms.


Today High 92 | Low 74 °F 50% Chance of Precip.
Yesterday High 133 | Low 71.6 °F


I just don't know if I can take another yesterday, only worse. This is 78645


I remember some meteorologist in Baltimore dealt with this blooper in a live shot:

WARNING>>>>WARNING>>>>DAILY VALUES>>>>>DAILY VALUES>>>>>

ENSO region 3.4 has crossed the el nino threshold once again.......could this...could this????....dare we say...el nino????....nahh...better wait for the weekly values on monday....or those that believe we won't have an el nino will feed me my portion of crow...not to mention....it's very unlikely the weekly values will e at 0.5c or above...LOL

I remember some meteorologist in Baltimore dealt with this blooper in a live shot:


LOL...look at the top of that pic again...i wonder if they had to pay off on their two degree guarantee?????



From ReliefWEB

OCHA Philippines Flash Update No. 2: Typhoon Rammasun (Glenda), 16 July 2014

REPORTfrom UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Published on 16 Jul 2014

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As of 16 July, Typhoon Rammasun (known locally as Glenda) has affected an estimated 93,860 families (450,690 people) in four regions (IV-A, IV-B, V and VIII), based on initial reports by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMMC). Out of the total affected population, 76,600 families (373,180 people) are in 500 evacuation centres. One death and two injuries were reported by the Government. Damages were mostly to infrastructure. Partners reported challenges in receiving additional information with disruption in telecommunication services due to power outages. Government offices and classes were suspended in the National Capital Region (Metro Manila) and in 10 provinces under Typhoon Signal No. 2 (areas with winds of 61 to 100 km/h). The provinces of Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Cavite as well as Gumaca municipality (Quezon province) and Muntinlupa City (Metro Manila) were reported under a state of calamity by local media.

In Tacloban City, which was previously affected by Typhoon Haiyan, 1,040 evacuated families have since returned home according to the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. No major damages were reported.

On 15 July, the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) activated the following Government response clusters: food and non-food Items, emergency telecommunications, camp management, emergency shelter, IDP protection, logistics, health, and search and rescue and retrieval. Aerial survey is ongoing and local authorities in the affected areas are leading the rapid damage assessment and needs analysis (RDANA). DSWD mobilized 2,244 family food packs in Region V for distribution; 150 packs of were also provided to Catanduanes province. The Philippine Red Cross began providing food and non-food items to 2,500 families in Albay and meals to 2,400 families in evacuation centres in Masbate province, Ormoc City and Southern Leyte province.

On 16 July, the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) Glenda Task Force was convened to review the current situation and possible response in support of the Government. HCT technical staff also participated in the NDRRMC working group to assess requirements for RDANA in the affected areas. The UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator issued a letter to the Government on behalf of the HCT offering international support on 15 July if required.

As of 4 p.m. (local time), Rammasun was located 160 kilometres west of Olongapo City, Zambales province with maximum sustained winds of 140 kilometres per hour (km/h) and gusts of up to 170 km/h according to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. The typhoon is expected to be outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by the afternoon of 17 July. A new low pressure area is developing 1,090 km east of Visayas but is still outside the PAR.

The next update will be issued around 17 July.

For further information, please contact:
Joseph Tabago, Humanitarian Affairs Officer, tabago@un.org, Mobile: +63-917-810-9033

For media queries, please contact:
Orla Fagan, Public Information Officer, fagano@un.org, Mobile: +63-917-597-7219

Quoting 464. WIBadgerWeather:

I wonder what the 2 Degree Guarantee entails?
Quoting 401. StormTrackerScott:

Another subsurface warm pool in the making? It looks as if El-Nino may actually get declared over the next month or 2.




July 10, 2014
The chance of El Nio is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter.

During June 2014, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) were most prominent in the eastern equatorial Pacific, with weakening evident near the International Date Line (Fig. 1). This weakening was reflected in a decrease to 0.3oC in the Nio-4 index (Fig. 2). The Nio-3.4 index remained around 0.5oC throughout the month, while the easternmost Nio-3 and Nio-1 2 indices are 1.0oC or greater. Subsurface heat content anomalies (averaged between 180o-100oW) have decreased substantially since late March 2014 and are now near average (Fig. 3). However, above-average subsurface temperatures remain prevalent near the surface (down to 100m depth) in the eastern half of the Pacific (Fig. 4). The upper-level and low-level winds over the tropical Pacific remained near average, except for low-level westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific. Convection was enhanced near and just west of the Date Line and over portions of Indonesia (Fig. 5). Still, the lack of a clear and consistent atmospheric response to the positive SSTs indicates ENSO-neutral.

Over the last month, no significant change was evident in the model forecasts of ENSO, with the majority of models indicating El Nio onset within June-August and continuing into early 2015 (Fig. 6). The chance of a strong El Nio is not favored in any of the ensemble averages for Nio-3.4. At this time, the forecasters anticipate El Nio will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Nio-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 1.4oC). The chance of El Nio is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA%u2019s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Nio/La Nia Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 7 August 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~
There is a possibility for an El Nino to form by August, but it is very dependent on this month's official anomalies. The month of June recorded temperature anomalies in region 3.4 near .5C. Though I believe there's potential for the month of July to drop back down to .4C. Which would cause us to restart next month, essentially postponing any chances of an official El Nino event until November. But currently, it appears the event will be much weaker than initially anticipated. With the lack of westerly wind bursts during much of this month and last month, it has allowed for the subsurface warm pool to weaken and for the easterly trade winds to upwell the cooler subsurface waters in regions 4, 3.4, and 3.

Though it does appear that it has rebounded, it is still not known whether or not this recovery will be enough to average out at or above .5C for the month.


Rocket Fuel.


Heatwave alert as temperatures soar to year high in England

This will make some on here smile ruefully.

"Health experts have urged people to stay out of the sun during the hottest part of the day after the Met Office issued a heatwave alert with temperatures set to soar to their highest of the year this weekend.

The south-east could reach the low 30s Celsius (mid-80s Fahrenheit) by Friday, while other parts of England and Wales are likely to see temperatures in the mid to high 20s.

Public Health England advised people to stay out of the sun at the hottest times, to drink plenty of fluids and wear sun cream that is at least factor 15. It also asked people to ensure that children and the elderly are not suffering because of the heat."

Link
472. JRRP
There is a possibility for an El Nino to form by August, but it is very dependent on this month's official anomalies. The month of June recorded temperature anomalies in region 3.4 near .5C. Though I believe there's potential for the month of July to drop back down to .4C. Which would cause us to restart next month, essentially postponing any chances of an official El Nino event until November. But currently, it appears the event will be much weaker than initially anticipated. With the lack of westerly wind bursts during much of this month and last month, it has allowed for the subsurface warm pool to weaken and for the easterly trade winds to upwell the cooler subsurface waters in regions 4, 3.4, and 3.

nice summary....although i'm a bit more optimistic than you...i think a september announcement is very likely...part of me wants it to be declared in winter...as those four german scientists who believe they have a lock on predicting el nino genesis....stated that's when it would happen over a year ago
Wet in Florida again!
Apollo 11 Launched on this date in July 1969 carrying Neil Armstrong, Mike Collins and Buzz Aldrin beginning Mans first lunar landing mission.



476. JRRP
MJO

Hi Rez Image



AS11-36-5299 (16 July 1969) --- This view of Earth showing clouds over water was photographed from the Apollo 11 spacecraft following translunar injection. While astronauts Neil A. Armstrong, commander, and Edwin E. Aldrin Jr., lunar module pilot, descended in the Lunar Module (LM) "Eagle" to explore the Sea of Tranquility region of the moon, astronaut Michael Collins, command module pilot, remained with the Command and Service Modules (CSM) "Columbia" in lunar orbit.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The next photo taken from that Hassleblad Magazine.

Note how fast the Vehicle is climbing out of Earth orbit compared to the previous image.

Hi Rez

The south-east could reach the low 30s Celsius (mid-80s Fahrenheit) by Friday, while other parts of England and Wales are likely to see temperatures in the mid to high 20s.

it's funny how life is a matter of perspective......i lived on whidbey island in the puget sound for a time where only for two days did it get above 80 the whole time i lived there...now in el paso with an extended forecast of a week of highs over 100 degrees starting this saturday

It's starting to get really dry here...
Quoting 470. TylerStanfield:



Rocket Fuel.





Not going to be fun if a hurricane gets into the western carribean or GOMEX this year, and based on trends storms are likely to move farther west than the last few years.
Quoting 473. ricderr:
nice summary....although i'm a bit more optimistic than you...i think a september announcement is very likely...part of me wants it to be declared in winter...as those four german scientists who believe they have a lock on predicting el nino genesis....stated that's when it would happen over a year ago

Anywhere from September to November appears to be a good estimate for the timing of the El Nino event. As far as strength, it appears anything from 0.5C to 1.5C is what to expect. I'd go with somewhere in the middle; 1.1C.

Quoting 482. MLTracking:


Not going to be fun if a hurricane gets into the western carribean or GOMEX this year, and based on trends storms are likely to move farther west than the last few years.

That's if a storm can survive the Caribbean. I think that anything that develops close to home, in the western caribbean or southern gulf, has the potential to be a bad set up. The pattern favors a northerly flow in the western atlantic, as the periphery of the ridge comes around 75-80W, and troughs have been more active across the central and eastern sections of North America allowing for a weakness to be favored there.
Rain has really filled in since this morning across Central Florida.
Further down the Eastcoast of Fl it's really storming.
The big picture
By this weekend the Polar air should be back where it belongs and a warm up should start back up across the Midwest.


Today's setup for comparison.