WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Atlantic ‘Wakes-Up’ / Typhoon Matmo Heads For Taiwan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:40 PM GMT on July 21, 2014

ATLANTIC ‘WAKES-UP’ / TYPHOON MATMO HEADS FOR TAIWAN


(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

Morning VIS imagery shows a well defined low level closed circulation has formed about 1,200 NM east of the CARIB near 11.6N / 42.6W and is westbound (280ᵒ) at 20Kts – and is now being carried by NHC as INVEST 92L.



Fig 1: A relatively small but well-defined Low level circulation has formed within a small area of weak convection.

Convection remains fairly weak, but does exist just to the SE of the center of rotation, and high level wind analysis from CIMSS does NOT show significant outflow. That said, wind shear is believed to be quite low (est. under 10Kts)




Fig 2: With limited derived values for high level winds associated with INVEST 92L, there is currently little evidence of significant outflow associated with the tropical Low. (More data should become available if/when convection deepens.)



Fig 3: Likewise, what wind data is available in the vicinity of the Low, wind shear is likely quite low (under 10 Kts) and this should enable INVEST 92L to slowly intensify once deeper convection is able to develop.

Global models still have not resolved this system, but after manual initialization by NHC, Early Track and Intensity model forecasts call for the system to become a Depression today and possibly reach Tropical Storm intensity during the next 48-72 hours once the system moves over waters that are warm enough to support storm formation.



Fig 4: Early 12Z model runs show a W/WNW track, with the system reaching the Northeast CARIB Friday.




Fig 5: Early 12Z model runs (primarily based on CLIMO and limited dynamical / statistical forecasts) show the system becoming a Tropical storm, and POSSIBLY a minimal CAT 1 by the time it reaches the NE CARIB. Confidence is Low for this forecast.

ASSUMING this developing cyclone manages to become a Tropical storm or Hurricane near the eastern CARIB, extended global model forecasts depict a weakening of the sub-tropical ridge north of the system by then, and an approaching large-scale long wave TROF in the eastern US suggests the system will eventually turn northward away from the US mainland. However, this assumes that the system does in fact reach the northern CARIB as currently forecast by the early model runs. That said, should the cyclone stay on a more westerly track into the central CARIB AND manage to find a low shear environment this weekend - track / intensity forecasts beyond then become quite problematic. And, of course, the developing system could simply turn northward prior to reaching the CARIB and would simply head out sea by the weekend.


CAT 1 MATMO HEADING FOR TAIWAN


Typhoon MATMO is located about 485 NM South of Okinawa, Japan, heading NNW at 15 Kts. With Dvorak T numbers near 5.0 and the JAM estimating a central pressure near 970mb, MATMO’s Max sustained winds are estimated near 75Kts.



Fig 6: A tightly 'wound up' and small-to-average size storm is depicted in the last VIS image of MATMO.




Fig 7: Deep convection is especially prominent in this color enhanced IR image.

Overall, recent Imagery depicts a bit more symmetrical storm signature with strong, deep convection (with typical diurnal variation) - especially in the southern semi-circle. As anticipated, wind shear has fall off to near 15 Kts, with a continuing decline to near 10 Kts expected during the next 12 hours. This has allowed for a much improved outflow to develop, with moderate to strong outflow channels noted pole-ward and equator-ward, with MAX speeds near 50 Kts.



Fig 8: Wind shear has decreased since yesterday and should promote intensification during the next 24 hrs.



Fig 9: Strong Outflow channels are clearly seen to the north and south of the cyclone's center.

With this overall improvement in outflow – and a projected track over quite warm SST’s – MATMO should reach CAT 2 intensity within 12-18 hrs, and may approach CAT 3 intensity in 24-36 hrs.

There has been virtually no change in the forecast track for MATMO for the past 2 days, with both the GFS and specialized hurricane track models showing the storm center passing across the northern Taiwan east coast WED around 06Z,

With the approach of an upper air TROF over eastern China, wind shear should then increase as the storm continues NNW towards the SE China coast. Combined with cooler SST’s and interaction with the mountainous terrain of Taiwan (and additional interaction with the China mainland) MATMO should approach the SE coast of China around 06Z THU as a minimal CAT 1, or strong Tropical Storm. At this time, there is minimal risk that MATMO will be stronger than a CAT 3 when it reaches Taiwan.



Fig 10: The official Track forecast from JTWC (above) is in excellent agreement with all track forecast models, and now, the track and intensity forecast from the JMA.


I will have another update on the ATLANTIC INVEST late this afternoon.

Steve Gregory

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Gregory !
Thanks Dr. Gregory!

Quoting 246. CybrTeddy:

I'll point out the intensity models had Chantal and Dorian becoming hurricanes, too. Still, it looks interesting right now.



Yeah. Same situation IMO. 92L is still heavily embedded in the ITCZ and dry air hasn't gone anywhere. The conditions it will be facing later on will still be an issue, even though we are dealing with a stronger system.

Will likely knock off another name at the current rate of organization...
The irony of getting a named storm while Dr. Masters is on vacation, once again.
Thanks for the update. The invest in the Atlantic will probably be a re-Chantal at best, if anything.
Thx Doc
92L ASCAT

Thanks Dr. Gregory!
Hopefully this doesn't get completely destroyed before it gets to the Caribbean, pretty much every island except Cuba is in drought.
That said, we have to wait for it to separate from the ITCZ to see if it can actually sustain itself.
Thanks for the new blog Dr. Gregory!
Thanks Mr Gregory.
50% now............................................
Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.


Tropical Weather Outlook Text
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the
central tropical Atlantic.

1. Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours.
Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs
of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed
circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a
small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression
could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time
however, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brennan/Roberts


Quoting 5. Skyepony:

92L ASCAT



Not quite there yet. I'd say if it can sustain itself and become better defined that we could see a tropical depression form at 5PM or 11PM.
I saw all the posts about whether or not it had a closed surface circulation on the previous blog, and I'm just looking at the current satellite images thinking that I rarely see invests looking that good without some sort of closed/mostly closed circulation.

That being said, it jumping from 20 to 50% is adequate, because it is more or less a coin toss as to whether it will develop if you factor in dry air entrainment.

Although I actually think it will, though no one would have thought so 6 hours ago.
Quoting 6. WeatherNerdPR:

Thanks Dr. Gregory!
Hopefully this doesn't get completely destroyed before it gets to the Caribbean, pretty much every island except Cuba is in drought.
That said, we have to wait for it to desperate from the ITCZ to see if it can actually sustain itself.

Looks like an re-Ana to me. Supposedly systems that develop in the MDR before August are suppose to be active seasons right?
Convection starting to fill in the hole:



Everyone needs to be on alert and have a plan in place.
Thx Doc! Long time lurker here (8+ years I think). NCStorm was on with this one, so hopefully both of us will be enjoying Bertha swell in Wrightsville in about 14 days. lol.
thanx doc gregory......92l looks good...conditions...not nearly as good
I may have to whip out my TCEPS in a little while. I believe it already is a depression. Not by the looks of it, but the winds. One good thing. I don't think this will make it anywhere near the Cayman Islands. My humble opinion, (and you know how humble I am) the models will begin shifting a little more WNW.
Quoting 13. allancalderini:

Supposedly systems that develop in the MDR before August are suppose to be active seasons right?


Ye, but not always (2013 for instance). This year is a bit of a tricky one to predict what's going to happen. Rather just wait and see what pops up in terms of invests and go from there. :)
Dr.Gregory excellent post, you are always detailed and thoughtful with your presentation. Hopefully we can hear more from you on future vacations of Dr.Masters.
It has to sustain itself a little longer to get classified, but I'm impressed with 92L, I never though it would get this far. It's still possible it falls apart into DMIN this evening, but it's making a run at spinning up. The CMC is actually doing well with it right now. I think the NHC's 50% chance is appropriate. If it still looks like this in 3-5 hours, the odds will go up.

Ncstorm and Grother again right on the money, believed them day 1.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Thx Doc! Long time lurker here (8 years I think). NCStorm was on with this one, so hopefully both of us will be enjoying Bertha swell in Wrightsville in about 14 days. lol.


I'd like to see it in the GOM so we can see some waves on the Gulf of Mexico side of Fl.

The only time we get waves worth surfing there's a tropical system in the GOM. Otherwise it's just small wind chop at best.

Check out my little sig picture. That's on Captiva Island (S.W. Fl. Gulf of Mexico) while Hurricane Gustav was passing by in the GOM.
So what do you naysayers have to say now?
Where are all the Florida-casters?

Quoting 16. HaoleboySurfEC:

Thx Doc! Long time lurker here (8+ years I think). NCStorm was on with this one, so hopefully both of us will be enjoying Bertha swell in Wrightsville in about 14 days. lol.


thanks..I was only pointing out the possibilities..never said what it will do..

Gro is the true expert :)

and Bertha wasn't kind to us last time it pay us a visit..
I would not be surprised to see 92L become a tropical depression or storm over the next 24 hours. It has organized nicely since last night, with an increasingly defined circulation and modest convective activity. It looks like this would have been a win for the GFS had it not dropped it two days ago.

That said, my thinking with regards to this storm is unchanged. The intensity models that show this becoming a hurricane are likely wrong. Right now, 92L is being aided by the Intertropical Convergence Zone, much like Dorian was (the two storms are actually quite similar in appearance). Once it detaches from this, it will be moving into a region where mid-level relative humidity values are in the 40s and even 30s! That is very unfavorable. The SHIPS analyzed wind shear above 15 kts at 12z, and shows it briefly lowering over the next 36 hours before increasing to nearly 25 knots. Sea surface temperatures are marginal now, but look to increase as the system heads west-northwest.

Maybe some rain for the islands, but at least in my opinion, I don't think it'll warrant much worrying.
despite the models showing nothing in the atlantic the next 2 weeks, 92L is a very good sign of strong tropical waves coming off africa. cool gulf of guniea will help combined with a non el nino enso... very interesting
NRL Ascat-A solution





Link
Thank you Steve ...Time to pay attention now
Quoting 27. Grothar:

Where are all the Florida-casters?




I would like this at Panama City beach as a minimal Hurricane.
If this does become a tropical storm as it reaches the Islands, I have a feeling it will do a Chantal. That is, all its convection will completely collapse during a Dmin as it goes over the islands and then regenerates during Dmax over open water.

I will never forget when Chantal was nothing more than a whisp of low clouds during a Dmin last year lol.
Why is it that this blog only gets updated when I take a break???? lol ...

Thanks, Dr. Gregory....

Quoting 16. HaoleboySurfEC:

Thx Doc! Long time lurker here (8+ years I think). NCStorm was on with this one, so hopefully both of us will be enjoying Bertha swell in Wrightsville in about 14 days. lol.
Welcome to the blog... Haole... Hawaiian, or just surfer??? [grin]

It even covered the tight circulation

*slow claps for 92L*
Quoting 27. Grothar:

Where are all the Florida-casters?


Gro....Stocking up my Bud Light at Publix....Geeeez
Quoting 13. allancalderini:

Looks like an re-Ana to me. Supposedly systems that develop in the MDR before August are suppose to be active seasons right?

Um, 2013...
so far gem model has it going back out to sea,not hitting the usa.................................


invest 91L moving west at 20 mph..
Quoting 29. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I would not be surprised to see 92L become a tropical depression or storm over the next 24 hours. It has organized nicely since last night, with an increasingly defined circulation and modest convective activity. It looks like this would have been a win for the GFS had it not dropped it two days ago.

That said, my thinking with regards to this storm is unchanged. The intensity models that show this becoming a hurricane are likely wrong. Right now, 92L is being aided by the Intertropical Convergence Zone, much like Dorian was (the two storms are actually quite similar in appearance). Once it detaches from this, it will be moving into a region where mid-level relative humidity values are in the 40s and even 30s! That is very unfavorable. The SHIPS analyzed wind shear above 15 kts at 12z, and shows it briefly lowering over the next 36 hours before increasing to nearly 25 knots. Sea surface temperatures are marginal now, but look to increase as the system heads west-northwest.

Maybe some rain for the islands, but at least in my opinion, I don't think it'll warrant much worrying.

Minimal to moderate tropical storm would be my guess. 40-50 Mph. With dissipation somewhere between 55W and 70W.
Quoting 11. TylerStanfield:


Not quite there yet. I'd say if it can sustain itself and become better defined that we could see a tropical depression form at 5PM or 11PM.

This week or next ? lol.
People in the northern plains and upper Mississippi valley need to be on the look out today for severe weather it looks like it could be quite nasty with large hail (2 inch plus) and extremely strong winds (greater than 75 mph)  the main threat but a few tornadoes can not be ruled out. 

Quoting MLTracking:
So what do you naysayers have to say now?
Biting our tongues and wishing we hadn't said anything =)
Quoting MLTracking:
So what do you naysayers have to say now?
Glad, Dr. Gregory is giving the respect 92L deserves...I'll be with my "eyes open" here on the "island of the enchantment".....
Quoting 29. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I would not be surprised to see 92L become a tropical depression or storm over the next 24 hours. It has organized nicely since last night, with an increasingly defined circulation and modest convective activity. It looks like this would have been a win for the GFS had it not dropped it two days ago.

That said, my thinking with regards to this storm is unchanged. The intensity models that show this becoming a hurricane are likely wrong. Right now, 92L is being aided by the Intertropical Convergence Zone, much like Dorian was (the two storms are actually quite similar in appearance). Once it detaches from this, it will be moving into a region where mid-level relative humidity values are in the 40s and even 30s! That is very unfavorable. The SHIPS analyzed wind shear above 15 kts at 12z, and shows it briefly lowering over the next 36 hours before increasing to nearly 25 knots. Sea surface temperatures are marginal now, but look to increase as the system heads west-northwest.

Maybe some rain for the islands, but at least in my opinion, I don't think it'll warrant much worrying.
Actually, if it DOES make it to hurricane status at any point [models were suggesting 120 hrs out?] i'd say it'd need to get fairly close to where Arthur spun up. IMO, that's still the only real "sweet spot" in the basin. If it can make it there in any kind of shape, I could see a hurricane.... otherwise? not so much....
Quoting 27. Grothar:

Where are all the Florida-casters?



I am here, it's going to Miami as a cat 3.....
Matmo extremely boring.
Quoting 28. ncstorm:


thanks..I was only pointing out the possibilities..never said what it will do..

Gro is the true expert :)

and Bertha wasn't kind to us last time it pay us a visit..


Yes Gro is the true expert.

Like the fish storms. Just waves for me thanks.
Quoting 46. BahaHurican:

Actually, if it DOES make it to hurricane status at any point [models were suggesting 120 hrs out?] i'd say it'd need to get fairly close to where Arthur spun up. IMO, that's still the only real "sweet spot" in the basin. If it can make it there in any kind of shape, I could see a hurricane.... otherwise? not so much....


Quoting 45. HuracanTaino:

Glad, Dr. Masters is giving the respect 92L deserves...I'll be with my "eyes open" here in the "island of the enchantment".....


Dr masters is on vacation, the blog was written by Steve Gregory.
Quoting 25. Sfloridacat5:


I'd like to see it in the GOM so we can see some waves on the Gulf of Mexico side of Fl.

The only time we get waves worth surfing there's a tropical system in the GOM. Otherwise it's just small wind chop at best.

Check out my little sig picture. That's on Captiva Island (S.W. Fl. Gulf of Mexico) while Hurricane Gustav was passing by in the GOM.


I've always noticed the pic. Roping sandy grinder. Only GOM surfing experience I've ever had is South Padre in winter.

Enjoy.





Quoting 48. pablosyn:

Matmo extremely boring.

Actually, at long last, it is starting to make greater strides in organization. Convection is wrapping around.

Quoting 11. TylerStanfield:


Not quite there yet. I'd say if it can sustain itself and become better defined that we could see a tropical depression form at 5PM or 11PM.

Yeah it's slightly elongated east to west, but overall impressive.. Being small & shallow is helping it for now. With the low shear in the area it could be a depression by the end of the day.
Quoting 44. silas:


Biting our tongues and wishing we hadn't said anything =)

This is one of those instances when a naysayer should be happy to be wrong.... lol ....

Quoting 45. HuracanTaino:

Glad, Dr. Masters is giving the respect 92L deserves...I'll be with my "eyes open" here in the "island of the enchantment".....
I suggest... pray for rain... :o)

Quoting 35. BahaHurican:
Why is it that this blog only gets updated when I take a break???? lol ...

Thanks, Dr. Gregory....

Welcome to the blog... Haole... Hawaiian, or just surfer??? [grin]



Aloha. UH grad, former lifeguard, long-time surfah and water enthusiast.

Mahalos.
We need RI in the next 24 hours.
So, about nothing forming in the atlantic until August...
Thanks for the update Mr. Gregory....
Another Dorian/Chantal!!.Yay!!.-.-.
Quoting 56. HaoleboySurfEC:



Aloha. UH grad, former lifeguard, long-time surfah and water enthusiast.

Mahalos.
kewl.... I seriously doubt we can have too many surfers in this blog.... lol ...

Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:


I've always noticed the pic. Roping sandy grinder. Only GOM surfing experience I've ever had is South Padre in winter.

Enjoy.







I used to live in Corpus Christi. We actually had pretty consistant surf (Fall, Winter, and Spring). Summers the surf got really small or flat unless there was storm.

Check out this pic from the south side of the Jetty from South Padre Island. Most people have no idea the GOM can get this big.
July 2014
20th-23rd. A few local thunderstorms.
24th-27th. Tropical storm threat for Northeast coast, otherwise clear, hot; then local thunderstorms for New England.28th-31st. More showers, thunderstorms
Excellent update Steve! Thank You!
Quoting 60. washingtonian115:

Another Dorian/Chantal!!.Yay!!.-.-.
blame the SAL and sinking air..... shear is low and waters are normal. hate this pattern.... 4th season now with it.... thinking maybe atlantic is going back to a negative AMO :(
Quoting 37. PalmBeachWeather:

Gro....Stocking up my Bud Light at Publix....Geeeez


Mrs. Grothar is in Sweden. I think I will have to go stock up on my Cadbury bars myself.
Quoting 53. MAweatherboy1:


Actually, at long last, it is starting to make greater strides in organization. Convection is wrapping around.




But it definitely will not be as monstrous as was indicated in the forecast models early in his life. Only if we have something amazing in the coming hours.
Quoting 60. washingtonian115:

Another Dorian/Chantal!!.Yay!!.-.-.
Hey, until this spun up we had NOTHING.... lol.... do I need to repeat the part about being excited??? lol .... I'll be pragmatic tomorrow... :o)
Quoting 65. wunderweatherman123:

blame the SAL and sinking air..... shear is low and waters are normal. hate this pattern.... 4th season now with it.... thinking maybe atlantic is going back to a negative AMO :(
I miss 2010.The last true cape Verde season.
Quoting 66. Grothar:



Mrs. Grothar is in Sweden. I think I will have to go stock up on my Cadbury bars myself.


Understand now why you have been up with the night-owls.........
Quoting 25. Sfloridacat5:



I'd like to see it in the GOM so we can see some waves on the Gulf of Mexico side of Fl.

The only time we get waves worth surfing there's a tropical system in the GOM. Otherwise it's just small wind chop at best.

Check out my little sig picture. That's on Captiva Island (S.W. Fl. Gulf of Mexico) while Hurricane Gustav was passing by in the GOM.


We had some nice ones (for summer and no storms!) late last week. Fairly clean waist-stomach.

Quoting 69. washingtonian115:

I miss 2010.The last true cape Verde season.


sigh
Quoting 37. PalmBeachWeather:

Gro....Stocking up my Bud Light at Publix....Geeeez


You should also buy some beer while you're there. ;)
Quoting 63. Climate175:

July 2014
20th-23rd. A few local thunderstorms.
24th-27th. Tropical storm threat for Northeast coast, otherwise clear, hot; then local thunderstorms for New England.28th-31st. More showers, thunderstorms


is that the Almanac..the piece of rag that doesn't get anything right? :)
Navy is quick today.........


AL 92 2014072112 03 GFDN 0 115N 414W 37 1013
AL 92 2014072112 03 GFDN 6 111N 428W 31 1010
AL 92 2014072112 03 GFDN 12 110N 441W 30 1012
AL 92 2014072112 03 GFDN 18 111N 453W 29 1010
AL 92 2014072112 03 GFDN 24 112N 464W 27 1012
AL 92 2014072112 03 GFDN 30 116N 477W 28 1010
AL 92 2014072112 03 GFDN 36 117N 491W 26 1012
AL 92 2014072112 03 GFDN 42 119N 506W 25 1011
AL 92 2014072112 03 GFDN 48 121N 521W 26 1012
AL 92 2014072112 03 GFDN 54 124N 535W 27 1012
AL 92 2014072112 03 GFDN 60 126N 552W 31 1012
AL 92 2014072112 03 GFDN 66 129N 567W 38 1011
AL 92 2014072112 03 GFDN 72 131N 587W 33 1012
AL 92 2014072112 03 GFDN 78 132N 608W 27 1012
AL 92 2014072112 03 GFDN 84 131N 631W 27 1011
Now we don't need any of this.

92L has a nice S shape already, not much shear at all.
Quoting 76. ncstorm:



is that the Almanac..the piece of rag that doesn't get anything right? :)
Looks like some people will LEARN today...
Quoting 68. BahaHurican:

Hey, until this spun up we had NOTHING.... lol.... do I need to repeat the part about being excited??? lol .... I'll be pragmatic tomorrow... :o)


I misread that, and thought you said "pregnant"

oh my goodness....
Quoting 67. pablosyn:



But it definitely will not be as monstrous as was indicated in the forecast models early in his life. Only if we have something amazing in the coming hours.


I would say it's a monstrous system on convection alone... It's likely going to be a huge rain maker and potentially cause massive flooding across Taiwan & China. Last year's Typhoon Fitow hit china as a tropical storm and cause over $10.4 billion worth of damage and killed 12 (costliest system on record non adjusted and 3rd highest adjusted).

Typhoon Rananim & Matsa also hit in similar areas and both casued over $2 billion worth of damage with Rananim killing 169 and Matsa killing 25.
Quoting 62. Sfloridacat5:



I used to live in Corpus Christi. We actually had pretty consistant surf (Fall, Winter, and Spring). Summers the surf got really small or flat unless there was storm.

Check out this pic from the south side of the Jetty from South Padre Island. Most people have no idea the GOM can get this big.





Pensacola Pier during Katrina. It really gets that big!
I think 92L is so small that a model like the GFS just doesn't have the resolution needed to pick it up. This is definitely an example of a storm that, should it develop, wouldn't have been picked up before the satellite era.

Quoting 82. aquak9:



I misread that, and thought you said "pregnant"

oh my goodness....
I think you went too far into that song.... lol ....
It is very funny to sit here and view all of these comments saying what this invest will or won't do as if it is gospel.
anybody know why we are in our 4th year of futility and yet there is no el nino.... this sinking air is just depressing, hate it so much.
Quoting 80. MahFL:

92L has a nice S shape already, not much shear at all.


But well below average vertical instability throughout the tropical Atlantic.
Not trying to derail the blog topic here, but this is just a reminder that a significant severe weather event is expected today, and with the new convective outlook the SPC is now coming right out and saying that there's a good chance this will turn into a derecho event. If you're in the MDT risk area, stay tuned to the weather as many areas will be hit after dark, and these storms will be flying, probably moving at 60-70mph.




invest 91L will go up to 60% at 2pm!
I like Dr. Gregory !!!!
Quoting 94. gulfbreeze:

I like Dr. Gregory !!!!


Nice that he sticks to tropical talk.
we have had pretty much heavy rain and thunderstorms all day..looks to be training storms that will sit and dump water on top of us..





still in cool waters 75 to about 77, lots of dry air out there it'll be a fight for sure
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think 92L is so small that a model like the GFS just doesn't have the resolution needed to pick it up. This is definitely an example of a storm that, should it develop, wouldn't have been picked up before the satellite era.



Its small size plays to a significant disadvantage, once this separates from the ITCZ dry air will choke it out due to its small size. A larger system could fair better in this environment. 50% of becoming a tropical cyclone seems fair, might max out as a 40 knot tropical storm before dying out.
101. wxmod
Buoy a few miles from the north pole:

07/19/1500Z 85.653°N 89.509°W 13.2°C 1005.5mb
07/19/1400Z 85.653°N 89.514°W 12.7°C 1005.7mb
07/19/1300Z 85.654°N 89.523°W 13.1°C 1006.0mb
Quoting 94. gulfbreeze:

I like Dr. Gregory !!!!


I like Ice Cream!!!
Quoting FOREX:


Nice that he sticks to tropical talk.
He has to stick to tropical talks, he is just a guess, not his blog.
Quoting yonzabam:


But well below average vertical instability throughout the tropical Atlantic.
Quoting weatherb0y:
It is very funny to sit here and view all of these comments saying what this invest will or won't do as if it is gospel.
Agree, glad Dr. Gregory updated the blog... leading us into the correct perspectives..

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Loop of well organized, and likely near storm strength tropical disturbance in the Atlantic http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flash -vis-short.html …
Tropical Weather Outlook Text
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the
central tropical Atlantic.

1. Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours.
Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs
of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed
circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a
small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression
could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time
however, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brennan/Roberts

NWS Wilmington NC @NWSWilmingtonNC · 3h

Showers/t-storms just west of the Cape Fear River dropping up to 1.5 inches per hour. #ilmwx #ncwx #scwx
Quoting 95. FOREX:


Nice that he sticks to tropical talk.
You got that right!
I WILL GO OUT ON A LIMB AND CALL 92; Bertha. right now it is moving over water below the normal threshold. just wait to get 50W and then a more organize storm will evolve.
Only tangentially related ....

Bertha [2008] is probably my fave July storm... living up to the "Big Bertha" name by nearly being designated over the continent, impacting the CVIs as a TS, and running the ATL basin for quite a few days during a month when there's hardly any TC activity at all....
From Wikipedia...
Hurricane Bertha holds the records for the longest-lived July Atlantic tropical cyclone at 17 days,[20] and the easternmost forming tropical storm, at 24.7°W.[21] The system is also the sixth strongest pre-August Atlantic tropical cyclone on record and was the third strongest July storm on record, behind Dennis and Emily of 2005.[22] Additionally, Bertha was the longest-lived tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin since Ivan in 2004. The system produced 4.77 inches (121 mm) of rainfall on the island of Bermuda, making it the 10th wettest storm in recorded history at that location.[16]
NWS Wilmington NC @NWSWilmingtonNC · 5h

Heavy rainfall chances exist across eastern NC/SC today due to a stream of tropical moisture. #ilmwx #ncwx #scwx

Quoting 95. FOREX:



Nice that he sticks to tropical talk.


Your first post of the day, and you still couldn't do it without a throwing a shot at Dr. Masters. Imagine that.
Call me a troll, but 92L will not survive. Hispanola will make sure of that.
I'll have a blog on 92L (or AL02) tonight. Have a good afternoon everyone!
Hurricane Bertha 1996..I had no idea it was coming to Wilmington..had a young baby with colic and didnt/couldnt watch the news..so I was very much surprise when my mother called me and ask me did I board up yet?

I'll give 92L this though, it'll be exceptionally weird to have Bertha form in the MDR in July again.
the 20mph speed isn't helping 92L we'll have to wait and see, likely bertha but how strong? who knows.
Rainy day in S FL!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Only tangentially related ....

Bertha [2008] is probably my fave July storm... living up to the "Big Bertha" name by nearly being designated over the continent, impacting the CVIs as a TS, and running the ATL basin for quite a few days during a month when there's hardly any TC activity at all....
From Wikipedia...
Hurricane Bertha holds the records for the longest-lived July Atlantic tropical cyclone at 17 days,[20] and the easternmost forming tropical storm, at 24.7°W.[21] The system is also the sixth strongest pre-August Atlantic tropical cyclone on record and was the third strongest July storm on record, behind Dennis and Emily of 2005.[22] Additionally, Bertha was the longest-lived tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin since Ivan in 2004. The system produced 4.77 inches (121 mm) of rainfall on the island of Bermuda, making it the 10th wettest storm in recorded history at that location.[16]
Previews Bertha ,July 7-8, 1996, caught us off guard here in the eastern Caribean...
Quoting 113. unknowncomic:

Call me a troll, but 92L will not survive. Hispanola will make sure of that.


We need to see how it looks when it detaches from that ITCZ. IMHO it needs to stay attached to the it in order for it to have any chance of surviving that dry air out ahead of it.
121. SLU
Small in size, big in surprise?

Quoting 91. MAweatherboy1:

Not trying to derail the blog topic here, but this is just a reminder that a significant severe weather event is expected today, and with the new convective outlook the SPC is now coming right out and saying that there's a good chance this will turn into a derecho event. If you're in the MDT risk area, stay tuned to the weather as many areas will be hit after dark, and these storms will be flying, probably moving at 60-70mph.




In my opinion such a derailment is appropriate. It's both weather and safety related.
Quoting 115. ncstorm:

Hurricane Bertha 1996..I had no idea it was coming to Wilmington..had a young baby with colic and didnt/couldnt watch the news..so I was very much surprise when my mother called me and ask me did I board up yet?






Thats one for the memory books...her and Fran one right after the other
Quoting 123. K8eCane:





Thats one for the memory books...her and Fran one right after the other

Im crying right now.Lets watch TW in Atlantic,thats makes me happy
Quoting 78. Grothar:

Now we don't need any of this.


Very Funny! I love it.
Im not sure what Fran was when she came in on us, but i never want to go thru one any worse. Thats for sure.
and just like that..the 12z CMC dropped 92L



maybe 60% at 2pm
Quoting 113. unknowncomic:

Call me a troll, but 92L will not survive. Hispanola will make sure of that.
Hey... most of us will be happy if it makes it that far.... #1 analogue track dies out south of Hispaniola. I'll take AL02 for now.
Quoting 126. K8eCane:

Im not sure what Fran was when she came in on us, but i never want to go thru one any worse. Thats for sure.
Fran was with me.
Quoting 128. ncstorm:

and just like that..the 12z CMC dropped 92L




slipped right thru the CMC's fingers!
Quoting 109. prcane4you:

Heavy rain tracking by trolls


We could sure use some of that rain in Virginia! SEND IT NORTH PLEASE!
134. SLU
WTNT21 KNGU 211800
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 41.7W TO 12.3N 50.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 41.6W, APPROXIMATELY 1215 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BRIDGETOWN, BARBADOS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF
CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 83 DEGREES AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 221800Z.//
Quoting 128. ncstorm:

and just like that..the 12z CMC dropped 92L


Bad Run.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Rainy day in S FL!

The disturbance that's been over the Bahamas is starting to move into S. Florida.
I'm actually a little disappointed by its lack of overall convection.
Yesterday it looked a lot more impressive.

But it should help get our rainy season pattern back.
SLU back home or still in T&T ? nice looking storm , looks like ABBY which hit Saint Lucia in July 1960.
So we are looking at potential impact on the Lesser Antilles by earliest Thursday.... possibly as a weak to moderate TS....
Quoting 117. chrisdscane:

the 20mph speed isn't helping 92L we'll have to wait and see, likely bertha but how strong? who knows.
Go there and stop it now,we need it as a Cat.5 hurricane,
Quoting 136. Sfloridacat5:


The disturbance that's been over the Bahamas is starting to move into S. Florida.
I'm actually a little disappointed by it's lack of overall convection.
Yesterday it looked a lot more impressive.

But it should help get our rainy season pattern back.
We got a fair amount of rain out of that yesterday... steady, not torrential, on and off for about 12 hours... You may still get something later this p.m.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211724
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located
about 1250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has continued to
increase and show signs of organization during the past few hours.
Satellite data indicate that the circulation has become better
defined and the system is producing a small area of winds near
tropical storm force. Only a small increase in organization of the
shower activity would result in the formation of a tropical
depression as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph during the next day or two. After that time, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development or strengthening. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located
about 1250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has continued to
increase and show signs of organization during the past few hours.
Satellite data indicate that the circulation has become better
defined and the system is producing a small area of winds near
tropical storm force. Only a small increase in organization of the
shower activity would result in the formation of a tropical
depression as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph during the next day or two. After that time, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development or strengthening. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brennan
BNT20 KNHC 211724 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located about 1250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has continued to increase and show signs of organization during the past few hours. Satellite data indicate that the circulation has become better defined and the system is producing a small area of winds near tropical storm force. Only a small increase in organization of the shower activity would result in the formation of a tropical depression as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next day or two. After that time, however, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development or strengthening. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Brennan
not good news. formation of a significant tropical cyclone developing in the next 24 hrs. This is from 92L.
CODE RED.
LOL. Tell a wave it won't develop and look what happens.
Quoting K8eCane:
Im not sure what Fran was when she came in on us, but i never want to go thru one any worse. Thats for sure.


Fran hit Cape Fear as a category 3 hurricane.
Quoting 147. stoormfury:

not good news. formation of a significant tropical cyclone developing in the next 24 hrs. This is from 92L.
The wishcasters arrive.
Quoting 148. Climate175:

CODE RED.
To be expected... whoever said 5 or 11 tonight was pretty much on the money....
Quoting 150. Drakoen:

LOL. Tell a wave it won't develop and look what happens.
That is what happened with Katrina.
Quoting 147. stoormfury:

not good news. formation of a significant tropical cyclone developing in the next 24 hrs. This is from 92L.
Good news
The first HWRF run on 92L did not show any development, and as we've seen the CMC is no longer showing anything. The theme is, even if it does manage a quick development, which looks increasingly likely, the dry, stable air will win out. It almost always does in these situations. Both the 12z GFS and CMC solutions would leave a lot of Caribbean islanders sorely disappointed.
I'm hysterically laughing. I could have been wrong about this system and it does have a decent satellite presentation despite the abundance of dry air with an attempt to develop poleward outflow.
WHERE'S RECON????!!!!
Trolls are out i see.
70%..
161. JRRP
Quoting Drakoen:
LOL. Tell a wave it won't develop and look what happens.

jajajaja
Quoting 159. Gearsts:

Trolls are out i see.
Tell me where,I like them.They are my lovely ones.
Quoting 160. ncstorm:

70%..
200%.You are wrong,as always.See you wave tracker.
Quoting 159. Gearsts:

Trolls are out i see.
Send them to ncstorm.


WINDS STILL 80 MPH!!
Low expectations, y'all...

92L is moving way too fast, IMO.
Only a small increase in organization of the shower activity would result in the formation of a tropical depression as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph during the next day or two.
Shear in the Caribbean and north of the Greater Antilles is forecasted to be unfavorable if the system even manages to get there intact.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The first HWRF run on 92L did not show any development, and as we've seen the CMC is no longer showing anything. The theme is, even if it does manage a quick development, which looks increasingly likely, the dry, stable air will win out. It almost always does in these situations. Both the 12z GFS and CMC solutions would leave a lot of Caribbean islanders sorely disappointed.


Agreed, I foresee a quick spinup of Bertha that repeats the lives of last July's tropical storms. And if the harsh conditions don't effectively kill it, land interaction with the Greater Antilles will.
really want 92L to develop, models don't show anything developing in the next 16 days.... hate this dry stable air
Quoting 158. aquak9:

WHERE'S RECON????!!!!

Lol too funny
Quoting 167. Bluestorm5:

Low expectations, y'all...

92L is moving way too fast, IMO.
Yeah,92L just arrive here in P.R.I mean flight 92L from Cape Verde Islands
Station 41041
NDBC
Location: 14.329N 46.082W
Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 16:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (60) at 15.5 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (70)
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.02 in and falling
Air Temperature: 78.8 F
Water Temperature: 79.5 F
Link
Quoting 171. wunderweatherman123:

really want 92L to develop, models don't show anything developing in the next 16 days.... hate this dry stable air
I love dry air to stop anything.
Quoting 158. aquak9:

WHERE'S RECON????!!!!


2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE FIX/INVEST
NEAR 14.0N 54.0W AT 23/1730Z.
Quoting 62. Sfloridacat5:


I used to live in Corpus Christi. We actually had pretty consistant surf (Fall, Winter, and Spring). Summers the surf got really small or flat unless there was storm.

Check out this pic from the south side of the Jetty from South Padre Island. Most people have no idea the GOM can get this big.


Yup, surfed that side of the jetty. Long, long rides I remember. January 1997 I think.

Amazing most people never get to see how enormous the waves can get in GOM and EC during hurricane season and winter. Biggest wave I ever surfed outside of the islands was morning Sep 13, 2006 off Maine, 3 days before my wedding. I think it was Hurricane Helene that pushed an enormous swell through as it accelerated toward the Maritimes.

Although the video of surf I've seen of Hurricane Bill off of northern Maine blows my mind....poof! However, looked unrideable.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Agreed, I foresee a quick spinup of Bertha that repeats the lives of last July's tropical storms. And if the harsh conditions don't effectively kill it, land interaction with the Greater Antilles will.
ABNT20 KNHC 211724
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located
about 1250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has continued to
increase and show signs of organization during the past few hours.
Satellite data indicate that the circulation has become better
defined and the system is producing a small area of winds near
tropical storm force. Only a small increase in organization of the
shower activity would result in the formation of a tropical
depression as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph during the next day or two. After that time, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development or strengthening. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

WOW!!! 70%%%%%
Quoting 168. ncstorm:

Only a small increase in organization of the shower activity would result in the formation of a tropical depression as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph during the next day or two.
Todos en North Carolina corran a Home Depot 92L llegara alli rapido.Need a translation?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The first HWRF run on 92L did not show any development, and as we've seen the CMC is no longer showing anything. The theme is, even if it does manage a quick development, which looks increasingly likely, the dry, stable air will win out. It almost always does in these situations. Both the 12z GFS and CMC solutions would leave a lot of Caribbean islanders sorely , disappointed.
Don't worry we'll welcome any bit of rain, hopefully this system, will interact with our mountains as a TS or TD, and be a good rain maker...
Tornado reported near Galveston.


70%!!!!!!
It will form into a weak cyclone next day...then it will weaken and maintain a surface circulation into the Bahamas. Long range synoptic pattern will yield a blocking high in the maritimes so nothing is escaping ots in this pattern!! Maybe a Sandy type track.... of a tropical storm.
SYNOPSIS 2014072100

I should have initiated P05L yesterday since it remained a separate circulation from P03L and P04L in a majority of the models. I hesitated for fear of initiating a pouch that might disappear with the next model run, given the discrepancy in the models.

92L P05L
10N, 40W
700 hPa

ECMWF:

GFS: Is not absorbed by P04L, but rather, remains distinct and strengthens for the next couple days while P04L weakens. P05L/92L then weakens as well.

UKMET: UKMET has, for a few days, depicted a distinct OW max/pouch in this area between a fast but weak P03L and a slower and northern P04L. At its strongest at 24 hours. Slight reintensification at 120 hours has a bit of lee cyclogenesis on the north side of Hispaniola.

NAVGEM: Tracks to the north, perhaps absorbing P04L, becoming its strongest at 36 hours. Then tracks to the west at about 12N, slower than the other models. NAVGEM also hints at lee cyclogenesis on the north side of Hispaniola, but it is completely separate from P05L since P05L is slower and still to the east on Day 5.

HWRF-GEN:

ECMWF
GFS -9.0 v7/8 108h
UKMET -7.6 v700 120h
NAVGEM -7.0 v700 120h
HWGEN h

I can't wait till El Nino arrives!!!
188. SLU
Quoting 137. stoormfury:

SLU back home or still in T&T ? nice looking storm , looks like ABBY which hit Saint Lucia in July 1960.


Was back home right on time to witness last year's boring season. It will be interesting to see how "Bertha" pans out. Maybe Abby pt. 2.
Appropriate name for 92l=Wakeupcall.
Good afternoon all

After weeks of quiet in the ATL basin, 92L goes from 10% chance of developing about 24 hours ago to 70% now. Just goes to show that notwithstanding dry air and a stable atmospheric environment even weak waves can and will develop in the face of the odds.

While there may not be a lot of moisture around the system, it is interesting to note that there are no outflow boundaries which would indicate dry air intrusion into the heart of the circulation. For now it seems to be not only holding on but organizing.

Forward speed is 20 MPH which, while brisk, is not fatal to developing and maintaining a closed circulation. Ivan was moving West at 25 MPH and we know how that turned out ( not saying the same will happen here ). Time will tell whether 92L can keep building but there are no signs that I can see at the moment that would prevent this from becoming a minimal TS in the next 24 hours.

After that a lot will depend on many factors such as steering evolution, how deep it becomes which will affect the poleward inclination and whether stable conditions ahead result in dry air entrainment that could cap or derail further intensification.
192. ackee
Can some one explain how can an a tropical wave go from 10 percent to 70 and seem to be on the verge of being a TD I thought condtion was too hostile for this to devlop it goes to even with no model support mother nature does what she wants who know what suprise 92L will bring
Quoting 149. prcane4you:

Oh no my God,a catastrophe for Puerto Rico.Hurry everyone go to Home Depot.


Recent history shows that Puerto RIco has been devoid of any catastrophic TS affects outside of Olga where 37 died. Recent history also is replete with weak systems of TS strength that usually do minimum damage across the basin. Maybe worst case 92L pulls a Jeanne, but conditions will likely not allow for that. As our guest blogger Steve Gregory said, conditions could change and 92L could find the central eastern Caribbean and low shear and then things could be highly unpredictable. Hard to see 92L reaching anywhere near hurricane strength.
Ya'll are acting like 92L will be the next Ivan or Gustav to plow through the caribbean.Maybe a quick storm like Dorian and then dissapation.
Quoting hurricanes2018:


70%!!!!!!
Organizing nicely, against all odds, now 70%, pretty soon a TD or TS,....
Quoting 192. ackee:

Can some one explain how can an a tropical wave go from 10 percent to 70 and seem to be on the verge of being a TD I thought condtion was too hostile for this to devlop it goes to even with no model support mother nature does what she wants who know what suprise 92L will bring

Models struggle with resolving if 2 vort max will merge which they did!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 192. ackee:

Can some one explain how can an a tropical wave go from 10 percent to 70 and seem to be on the verge of being a TD I thought condtion was too hostile for this to devlop it goes to even with no model support mother nature does what she wants who know what suprise 92L will bring


The percentages are based upon the real time presentation of a system when analysed. They can go down just as quickly as they go up.
198. JLPR2
Extremely favorable windshear thanks to an anticyclone overhead & ahead and decent SSTs are helping 92L, only limitation at the moment is SAL/dry air and it seems to be fighting it fairly well for such a small system.









Day 10 pattern features BLOCKING HIGH in maritimes!

Given the very strong neg nao block and a merging of the martimes high with the Baffin Bay high... this pattern will favor a perpendicular storm hit into east coast ! Now this is assuming this llc will survive and resurface in the Bahamas in lower shear.
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 22s

NHC now as tropical disturbance, which looks like a small tropical storm already, up to a high chance for development http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flash -vis-short.html …
Quoting 171. wunderweatherman123:

really want 92L to develop, models don't show anything developing in the next 16 days.... hate this dry stable air

Of course the reliability of a 16 day model is very accurate.
Quoting 113. unknowncomic:

Call me a troll, but 92L will not survive. Hispanola will make sure of that.

that's if it makes it that far actually
Looks to me like 92L is already a TD or TS.
I think it'll be declared today, maybe at 5, probably at 11.
Bertha?
Quoting 192. ackee:

Can some one explain how can an a tropical wave go from 10 percent to 70 and seem to be on the verge of being a TD I thought condtion was too hostile for this to devlop it goes to even with no model support mother nature does what she wants who know what suprise 92L will bring

This is why the NHC exists. Just watch and see what happens. Models are only one tool available. Kman is absolutely right, you have windsat, ship data, satellite presentation that all can be used in forecasting.
92L may go....

however, sumthing inside of me has been saying since last night that the player we need to watch is over North Cenrtal Africa right now..... #August10th ......

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 18m

ECMWF reports their 12z model suite will be a "few hours late"
Quoting 201. sporteguy03:


Of course the reliability of a 16 day model is very accurate.
Lol.I remember the models this past winter didn't show some of the snow storms until they were literally on top of us.
Quoting 194. washingtonian115:

Ya'll are acting like 92L will be the next Ivan or Gustav to plow through the caribbean.Maybe a quick storm like Dorian and then dissapation.
Quoting 198. JLPR2:

Extremely favorable windshear thanks to an anticyclone overhead & ahead and decent SSTs are helping 92L, only limitation at the moment is SAL/dry air and it seems to be fighting it fairly well for such a small system.









It is still attached to the ITCZ, which is giving it convective support. It's small size (which makes it more susceptible to dry air intrusion) and likelihood of detaching from the ITCZ over the next 48 hours gives me a reason to believe that it won't look so good once it gets passed 55W.

Quoting 194. washingtonian115:

Ya'll are acting like 92L will be the next Ivan or Gustav to plow through the caribbean.Maybe a quick storm like Dorian and then dissapation.
No Ivan.  No Ivan.  No Ivan.  There's my 3 chant wishcast to the weather gods.

One in a lifetime is enough.
Looking very symmetrical and convection building slowly. Satellite imagery shows a small dry slot just North of the center but not wrapped into the circulation around the West side. The dry slot may mix out over time.

Quoting 210. hydrus:


..???.


WxGulfBr you don't have to worry about a Ivan with this one I can assure
Quoting 163. prcane4you:

200%.You are wrong,as always.See you wave tracker.


ncstorm, are you two friends and is he just giving you the business in good humor? Or is really trying to bully you and be mean? Just seen many comments directed at you by him, and with you being one of our best female bloggers here, just thought it was uncalled for and small. While our views on, lets just say, "certain topics" are not aligned :), you love weather and all things pertaining to it and are a good member who provides good info and feedback.
Good evening. I see you're nicely occupied by 92L, a quite determined cutie (for now), lol.


Click to enlarge. (Enhanced water vapor).
Will be back later
Hello everyone. I'm Baccccccccccccccccccccccccckkkkkkkkkkk. :p The United Kingdom and Ireland were beautiful. I loved it. The weather was quite nice temperature wise, but it did rain quite a bit. Oh well. I hope North Carolina fared well in Arthur, because the news over there didn't really mention it. I also see we might get Bertha (I believe). A nice welcome back present ;) Nice to see everyone again
Looks pretty likely 92L will develop into a brief tropical storm before dissipating today and into Wednesday. ASCAT revealed a circulation attempting to close off, and convection remains plentiful. 92L is developing a polar outflow and is trying to separate itself from the ITCZ. However, in doing so it'll become even more vulnerable to dry and stable air, making 92L's fate all but certain.


starting to look like a tropical d soon.
221. SLU
21/1745 UTC 11.4N 43.0W T1.0/1.0 92L
Quoting 215. DeepSeaRising:



ncstorm, are you two friends and is he just giving you the business in good humor? Or is really trying to bully you and be mean? Just seen many comments directed at you by him, and with you being one of our best female bloggers here, just thought it was uncalled for and small. While our views on, lets just say, "certain topics" are not aligned :), you love weather and all things pertaining to it and are a good member who provides good info and feedback.


Who?

oh I have him/her on ignore..didnt even notice..LOL..

I guess someone is mad..

Quoting 192. ackee:

Can some one explain how can an a tropical wave go from 10 percent to 70 and seem to be on the verge of being a TD I thought condtion was too hostile for this to devlop it goes to even with no model support mother nature does what she wants who know what suprise 92L will bring

92L has support from the Intertropical Convergence Zone, limiting the effects of dry air and SAL to the north of the cyclone. As it detaches starting tomorrow, expect the wave/potential cyclone to struggle a lot more.
Well, I was certainly wrong. Hats off to SLU, DawnAwakening and others that saw this invest developing yesterday. It sure looks like a TD right now and I imagine it will get classified later today. I don't think it has much of a future but I'll just shut up about forecasts and see what happens.

In other weather news, the rain has finally arrived in SE Alabama. We've had training thunderstorms all morning with heavy rain. I'm up to 3.27" since 0600 with a current rain rate of 1.95" per hour. I feel like I'm in Florida. :-) Radar Dog is currently hiding under the desk as we've had some real boomers. I've gone from a nearly dead lawn to a flooded lawn in six hours. Weather changes fast.


Quoting 219. CybrTeddy:

Looks pretty likely 92L will develop into a brief tropical storm before dissipating today and into Wednesday. ASCAT revealed a circulation attempting to close off, and convection remains plentiful. 92L is developing a polar outflow and is trying to separate itself from the ITCZ. However, in doing so it'll become even more vulnerable to dry and stable air, making 92L's fate all but certain.



This will be the next Ivan Ted and you can't deny it!
Quoting 219. CybrTeddy:

Looks pretty likely 92L will develop into a brief tropical storm before dissipating today and into Wednesday. ASCAT revealed a circulation attempting to close off, and convection remains plentiful. 92L is developing a polar outflow and is trying to separate itself from the ITCZ. However, in doing so it'll become even more vulnerable to dry and stable air, making 92L's fate all but certain.




I can see the Brazil *-*
The tropical low pressure center that was near 10.5n: 42.5w earlier today has continued to move to the west today and has actually begun to close off a circulation center underneath weak to moderate convection. Right now the convective pattern is conclusive of a developing tropical cyclone, but remains weak to moderate due to presence of lower SSTs. This should last for another 12 hours before SSTs increase once again in the future. I see this system as peaking at around 65 knots in the next 48 hours.


this high is bad for the usa and the east coast
As I said earlier, 92L will most likely not make it to the Caribbean. The models will move further North on each run

Quoting 221. SLU:

21/1745 UTC 11.4N 43.0W T1.0/1.0 92L


Need 1.5!
If they don't declare it today it may never get a chance.
so el nino wont form during the peak yet everything is still pretty much dead. any thoughts on this season? why the harsh conditions despite no el nino? 4 years in a row now...
Negative NAO you say ? That better hold tight with all it's mighty might.
Quoting hydrus:


Maybe 92L will moisten up the environment for the next system (whenever that happens to form).
Right now it's looking mighty dry across the Atlantic Basin.
Quoting 230. hurricanes2018:



this high is bad for the usa and the east coast

Yep lets make sure this storm does not reform or it may hit east coast
That blob that was over the Bahamas is working its way into S. Florida. Some pretty stormy weather across the eastcoast of Fl.
Quoting 231. Grothar:
As I said earlier, 92L will most likely not make it to the Caribbean. The models will move further North on each run



Hi Gro-

Is the environment any better for 92L to 'grow' further north?
Quoting 231. Grothar:

As I said earlier, 92L will most likely not make it to the Caribbean. The models will move further North on each run




Right over CariBoys house, I hope (or: he hopes :-) ...
Quoting odinslightning:
92L may go....

however, sumthing inside of me has been saying since last night that the player we need to watch is over North Cenrtal Africa right now..... #August10th ......
Just to take a break from the tropical system not to divert attention, nice cool blast for the east coming up, 2 vortex's in July is quite refreshing.
Quoting 240. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Gro-

Is the environment any better for 92L to 'grow' further north?


Yes.

As I said earlier, 92L will most likely not make it to the Caribbean. The models will move further North on each run



i agree...the question will be as what i think is starting to show at the end of the models run...is will it make a more westward shift at the end run and then be a florida liability


here we go again!! up to blue on the Eastern Atlantic
92L is looking pretty good and survived through the night to be tagged. As shown on satellite imagery, there is now a well defined center and convection is filling the center and its beginning to wrap around all that convection. Therefore, it is intensifying. Down the road it could sustain itself, we will see.




Synopsis on 91L and other areas in other basins: http://goo.gl/WYthWi
Thoughts on what 92L's ultimate fate will be?
Quoting 247. Tazmanian:



Reported

If it is content worth reporting, DONT QUOTE IT.
251. JRRP

update
The SST's are still marginable for development, but in a few days it will be moving into a little bit warmer water. Depending on the shear in the area, a TS could form. I believe that 92L already is a depression. I am withholding blob status until the NHC declares it so they won't feel so bad.

There is also a lot of SAL ahead of it, but that doesn't all mean it completely destroys a developing system. I actually don't pay much attention to the SAL maps, because they can be deceiving. It depends on which layer of the SAL will affect a system and the actual amount of dry air.




Wxrisk.com *** ALERT *** because of the overall large scale synoptic pattern ...92L is a threat to impact the East coast in the 6-10 day.

That being said we dont know IF 92L will stay of Tropical Disturbance Tropical depression storm or Hurricane
4 · about an hour ago · Edited

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
254. JRRP
Quoting 253. Camille33:

Wxrisk.com *** ALERT *** because of the overall large scale synoptic pattern ...92L is a threat to impact the East coast in the 6-10 day.

That being said we dont know IF 92L will stay of Tropical Disturbance Tropical depression storm or Hurricane
4 · about an hour ago · Edited

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


told you neg nao watch out
256. SLU
At 1800 UTC, 21 July 2014, LOW INVEST (AL92) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 11.5°N and 43.1°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 17 kt at a bearing of 275 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb.
257. SLU
Quoting 257. SLU:



Great little system, should provide some drought relief.


maybe a tropical storm at 11pm and going to up 90% at 8pm
Quoting 245. ricderr:
As I said earlier, 92L will most likely not make it to the Caribbean. The models will move further North on each run



i agree...the question will be as what i think is starting to show at the end of the models run...is will it make a more westward shift at the end run and then be a florida liability
Quoting 251. JRRP:

update


That high in the Atlantic is a shield that won't let any storm travel poleward. If it survives its trek it can be a GOM tracker. (Don't say Florida. You will disturb the peace.)
Quoting Doppler22:
Hello everyone. I'm Baccccccccccccccccccccccccckkkkkkkkkkk. :p The United Kingdom and Ireland were beautiful. I loved it. The weather was quite nice temperature wise, but it did rain quite a bit. Oh well. I hope North Carolina fared well in Arthur, because the news over there didn't really mention it. I also see we might get Bertha (I believe). A nice welcome back present ;) Nice to see everyone again


NC dodged major damage from Arthur.
Quoting 252. Grothar:
The SST's are still marginable for development, but in a few days it will be moving into a little bit warmer water. Depending on the shear in the area, a TS could form. I believe that 92L already is a depression. I am withholding blob status until the NHC declares it so they won't feel so bad.

There is also a lot of SAL ahead of it, but that doesn't all mean it completely destroys a developing system. I actually don't pay much attention to the SAL maps, because they can be deceiving. It depends on which layer of the SAL will affect a system and the actual amount of dry air.






Rarely post. But I would like to give a big thumbs up on this post. To much sometimes on SAL being the end all be all of storms. Weather is a little more compicated than just ONE factor.
263. JRRP
pre-FAY 2008 the best invest in history
pre-BERTHA 2014 ??
Based on current and Forecast climatology in the path of 92-L , I would say if it survives, it will have earned its

designation as a Tropical system.
Either a depression or a low end TS, we really need rain badly here in PR. 92L hopefully can provide some help.
Satellite imagery analysis.

Quoting 247. Tazmanian:



Reported


and you should be reported for reposting the offensive meme...
Quoting nocanesplease:
Either a depression or a low end TS, we really need rain badly here in PR. 92L hopefully can provide some help.


Sorry to say it's unlikely you'll get either. Probably will be an open wave devoid of convection.
269. Mikla
Quoting 262. Eyewall07:



Rarely post. But I would like to give a big thumbs up on this post. To much sometimes on SAL being the end all be all of storms. Weather is a little more compicated than just ONE factor.



Dr. Masters posted a blog on SAL and the influence on tropical storms here.
Likely a TD already, and Bertha soon enough. Every time he goes on vacation xD

Quoting 252. Grothar:

The SST's are still marginable for development, but in a few days it will be moving into a little bit warmer water. Depending on the shear in the area, a TS could form. I believe that 92L already is a depression. I am withholding blob status until the NHC declares it so they won't feel so bad.

There is also a lot of SAL ahead of it, but that doesn't all mean it completely destroys a developing system. I actually don't pay much attention to the SAL maps, because they can be deceiving. It depends on which layer of the SAL will affect a system and the actual amount of dry air.





So I need to start shopping at the home depot.
Quoting 171. wunderweatherman123:

really want 92L to develop, models don't show anything developing in the next 16 days.... hate this dry stable air
Are we talking about the models that last week said nothing was going to form until early August/late July. I am going to say it but so far 2014 hurricane season have been more interesting than 2013 of course I need to see how the next months are. 92L mIght be renumber at 5pm or 11pm. I incline to the former though.
92.signs=active.august
Really enjoyed this blog entry, SG. Reminded me of the good old days. TY
Quoting 258. EpsilonWeather:


Great little system, should provide some drought relief.


That's about all it'll do. All the west Pacific storms this year have greatly exceeded strength forecasts, but I'm expecting the opposite in the Atlantic. The prediction is for just below cat 1. We'll see.
First HWRF run. I believe it is much to low on track and will adjust further north.

The intensity graph is interesting.

My expectations...

*Ignore the time periods below the forecast track.*
92L...




The first person who says, "it's going right over my house" is not getting any cookies.
I guess now we get to see just how much like 2004 this year's pattern really is.
Retweeted by Joe Bastardi
Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 3m

Models showing weak tropical development off Florida Jax coast in 2-days. Moisture & weak low

Whadda difference a few hours make; 20% to 70%; gentlemen and women, start your engines.
Quoting 281. ncstorm:

Retweeted by Joe Bastardi
Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 3m

Models showing weak tropical development off Florida Jax coast in 2-days. Moisture & weak low

Our rain chances will be going down then.
Quoting 277. TylerStanfield:
My expectations...



May not be a bad forecast, as forecast 850 mb winds in the Caribbean are almost 40 knots, which means both low level divergence and induced upper shear.

Claudette 2003 was the rare July storm that (barely) survived the hostile Caribean to emerge and re-strenghen in the Gulf, but it seems like just about everything since 2008 has been negative in some way or another.

OTOH, if it does open into a wave and stay South of the Greater Antilles, I'd expect, based on the warm anomalies, this would be a candidate for a fast EPAC development.
The first person who says, "it's going right over my house" is not getting any cookies.


seeing i'm in el paso....when i do get the chance to say it's going over my house...i expect cookies from everyone
Quoting 269. Mikla:


Dr. Masters posted a blog on SAL and the influence on tropical storms here.


A good read. IMHO. I could payoff the national debt if I had a dime for every time the word (term) SAL is used. LOL
With the MDR slowly moistening and shear rather quickly dropping trough the Caribbean, are we headed towards a more typical season, 11-13 named storms 3-5 hurricanes and 1-2 majors? A/B high is a beast and vertical instability is very low, but season seems to be shaping up pretty normally. Know last year there was a lot of talk of the A/B high blocking lots of systems into the East Coast and that never came to fruition, dry air and trade winds played a big part in destroying our few Caribbean systems last year. Know this season is looking quite a bit like last years, but no two seasons are the same and this season will no doubt surprise.
247. get rid of that
Quoting 271. washingtonian115:

So I need to start shopping at the home depot.


Sure go for it. I always look for an excuse to window shop at Home Depot.
I would say 92L is already a TD. Hurricane center probably just wants to see the convection persist for a while. It would be something else if Bertha becomes similar in size, strength, and track to the 1996 Bertha. Anyway its not Bertha yet so we'll just have to wait and see.
Interesting: Though not real Hurricane (or Typhoon) hunters who would fly at low level into the eyewall, at least a DOTSTAR mission collected data by dropsondes in and around Matmo. Taiwan has done it since 2003, article says, and it's the only mission of that kind in whole Asia:

Authorities take to the air to survey approaching typhoon
2014/07/21 20:08:57


A satellite image issued by the Central Weather Bureau yesterday shows Typhoon Matmo as it approaches Taiwan. Jul 22, 2014, Photo: CNA, courtesy of the Central Weather Bureau

From:
CWB monitors Typhoon Matmo's approach
Taipei Times, By Shelley Shan / Staff reporter
... The bureau has activated the Dropwindsonde Observation for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR) project, which dispatched an aircraft yesterday afternoon to conduct a six-hour observation flight of the typhoon's movements.
The DOTSTAR project, which was launched in 2003, has helped reduce the margin of error predicting a typhoon's movement within 72 hours by about 7.5 percent, the bureau says. ...


Military prepares to provide rescue assistance as Typhoon Matmo nears
2014/07/21 21:04:58
Shared this last night on chat, thought i'd show you my thoughts
(not to be used as an official forecast)

Quoting 288. docrod:

247. get rid of that


Enough get over it, there was a finger !
Quoting 281. ncstorm:

Retweeted by Joe Bastardi
Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 3m

Models showing weak tropical development off Florida Jax coast in 2-days. Moisture & weak low


no!!!!!
Quoting 273. islander101010:

92.signs=active.august

Maybe, maybe not. Chantal last year showed us that there are exceptions to the rule, and conditions in the Atlantic right now don't really favor a lot of activity. There's a huge difference between storms like 92L and Chantal that develop with support from the Intertropical Convergence Zone, only to die when they detach, and storms like Bertha 2008, which develop whilst isolated from the ITCZ and go on to intensify later. Those are the type of storms we'd expect to see if a pre-August storm were to be a sign of an active season.

But conditions could change, no matter how unlikely it seems.
I am wishcasting it to reach the Caribbean and bring needed rains to some of the islands including PR where water rationing is only a few days away from being implemented.

THERE IS
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES IT A
70 PERCENT CHANCE OF IT DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE
CARIBBEAN IS QUITE HOSTILE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SURVIVE WITH
THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT
AT LEAST THERE IS A CHANCE OF A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE WAVE PASSES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
I'm checking all the necessary items off of my list :).Can never go wrong with Teddy Grams.
Safe to say for our Invest?
Quoting 295. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Maybe, maybe not. Chantal last year showed us that there are exceptions to the rule, and conditions in the Atlantic right now don't really favor a lot of activity. But that could change, no matter how unlikely it seems.
conditions in the tropical atlantic have been unfavorable for 4 years now... don't know when that will ever change..
every time a naysayer says 92L wont develop or will only develop into a weak storm the NHC writes up a discussion and blows it out the water..

its almost like an angel gets it wings antidote..



Wind shear is rather strong over most of the Atlantic Basin early this week, as has been the case during much of the season thus far.

Later this week, the system will approach the southern part of the Leeward Islands, part of the Lesser Antilles, which border the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.

"There is a chance wind shear may increase near the Lesser Antilles as the system approaches, but this is certainly a storm for interests to watch in the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico
If water temps are below threshold and a TD/TS forms than either the threshold is too high or actual temps are warmer.
303. 7544
92L went from 10% to 70% in a few hours ? and no one saw that coming not even me lol so this could be a td latter on today or even now imho . also keeping one eye on that wave behind 92L could be a interesting week .
puerto rico is moistioning up. nws san juan radar. s.central and western p.rico getting it right now
Quoting 300. ncstorm:

every time a naysayer says 92L wont develop or will only develop into a weak storm the NHC writes up a discussion and blows it out the water..

its almost like an angel gets it wings antidote..
Yes because this will be the next Ivan.
Wash....please refer me to any comment where someone said or implied that this will be a major?

I know 2015 is your thing but lets see what happens with 2014 first..and I prefer vienna sausages..never can go wrong with them..
I have to wonder what are the odds of the storm actually hitting the US, and if so what is the scenario that would cause it to happen? There's a huge difference in defying intensity models as opposed to track, but still I'd like to know the chances of a US impact.
TAFB path is almost certain dissipation........


Quoting 306. ncstorm:

Wash....please refer me to any comment where someone said or implied that this will be a major?

I know 2015 is your thing but lets see what happens with 2014 first..and I prefer vienna sausages..never can go wrong with them..


Vienna Sausages? Takes me back to spending time at my grandmothers house. Sometimes if I didn't eat that I would simply go hungry. I prefer them drained of any of the liquid around them before consuming, but if I had to pick I'd rather depend on cold hot dogs during a storm.
Quoting 303. 7544:
92L went from 10% to 70% in a few hours ? and no one saw that coming not even me lol so this could be a td latter on today or even now imho . also keeping one eye on that wave behind 92L could be a interesting week .



I did, I posted on my Facebook wall on Friday I thought what is now 92L had a window of development. Granted, I said Avila should have given it a 10% chance for 5 day development. But it looked good on satellite, and Euro was interesting.

https://www.facebook.com/edward.moran.752/posts/6 99404136782055?comment_id=699553693433766&offset=0 &total_comments=2&ref=notif¬if_t=share_comment# !/edward.moran.752


I'm a weenie, I want it to get strong enough to survive the Caribbean and make it to the Gulf. Don't expect it, but it isn't impossible.

Also on the weenie side, the Gulf has recovered well from the cold Winter, with only the Mexican coast cooler than normal.
maybe TD at 11pm tonight
Quoting 292. EpsilonWeather:

Shared this last night on chat, thought i'd show you my thoughts
(not to be used as an official forecast)




You have to get me the link of the original photo? No storms. I like that...i'll make my own forecast with this way too
Does anyone else think this could go like Anna back in 2009?
We should not worry too much in the US (per Dr. Hebert) until/unless this enters Hebert Box 1 near Puerto Rico as a hurricane..............Just my personal opinion...................... :)
lets see what happern at 4:45pm its the national hurricane center call this t.d two or we have to wait unit 11pm tonight
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 313. pablosyn:



You have to get me the link of the original photo? No storms. I like that...i'll make my own forecast with this way too

Link
319. silas
Not sure if this has already been posted, but return of the polar vortex? When will summer come to the midwest for more than 3 days at a time?

Well if I have learned anything its never to turn your back on these systems, seems like once or twice a year I hear almost certainly dissipates or almost certain it veers out to sea. Couple days down the road and that almost was apparently meant to be understood as a fifty fifty chance.
Afternoon all... thought I'd check in in time for a [potential] upgrade at 5 p.m. ... lol

Quoting 192. ackee:

Can some one explain how can an a tropical wave go from 10 percent to 70 and seem to be on the verge of being a TD I thought condtion was too hostile for this to devlop it goes to even with no model support mother nature does what she wants who know what suprise 92L will bring
A few of us have been watching this since it came off Africa as a potential developer. Conditions are still not optimal, but have been improving slowly.

An area of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic Ocean is getting better organized and has a 70 percent chance of becoming our next tropical system within 48 hours.

The low, currently dubbed Invest 92-L, was about 1,250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, or about 2,774 miles east-southeast of Cape Canaveral. It is currently moving west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph, and may be classified as a tropical cyclone at any time.

As the system eventually moves closer to the Lesser Antilles, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development.

If the low becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Bertha.
Quoting 213. kmanislander:

Looking very symmetrical and convection building slowly. Satellite imagery shows a small dry slot just North of the center but not wrapped into the circulation around the West side. The dry slot may mix out over time.


This is looking amazingly good for its time and place. Looking to see if that N-side convection can get pulled into the centre...
Quoting 239. Sfloridacat5:

That blob that was over the Bahamas is working its way into S. Florida. Some pretty stormy weather across the eastcoast of Fl.

Haven't seen any rain so far this p.m., but the sky still has that metallic blue look to it...
Quoting 260. rmbjoe1954:



That high in the Atlantic is a shield that won't let any storm travel poleward. If it survives its trek it can be a GOM tracker. (Don't say Florida. You will disturb the peace.)
That high in the ATL looks to bring anything that forms west to about 70W, and then its anybody's pinball game... depending on whether the trough stays back over the Mississippi, where it seems to be now, or moves east over the Appalachians ....

BTW .... WHOOHOO!!!! WE HAVE TD02!!!
lol
In the anti-weenie mode, MDR SSTs are near or a little below normal, while temps in the sub-tropics are above normal in the Atlantic.