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Super Typhoon Neoguri Lashing Okinawa, Headed for Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:01 PM GMT on July 07, 2014

The outer spiral bands of Super Typhoon Neoguri are pounding the Japanese Ryukyu Islands, which include Okinawa, as the mighty storm heads north-northwest at 12 mph towards Japan. At 11:30 pm local time (13:30 UTC) Monday, Naha City in southern Okinawa was reporting heavy rain and wind gusts of 43 mph. At 8 pm local time Monday, Miyako-jima reported sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 53 mph. On Sunday, Neoguri strengthened to 155 mph winds, crossing the 150 mph threshold needed to be labeled a Super Typhoon. As of 8 am EDT on Monday, the typhoon had weaker slightly to 150 mph winds, and infrared satellite images showed a reduction in the intensity and areal coverage of Neoguri's heavy thunderstorms. Recent microwave satellite images showed that the weakening may be due to the onset of an eyewall replacement cycle, a common occurrence in intense tropical cyclones. In an eyewall replacement cycle, the inner eyewall shrinks to the point of instability, collapses, and is replaced by a larger-diameter outer eyewall that forms from a spiral band. This process can take several days, and typically reduces the peak winds by 10 - 20 mph. With wind shear light, 5 - 10 knots, sea surface temperatures a very warm 30 - 31°C, and very warm waters extending to great depth along the storm's path, the typhoon will have the opportunity to re-strengthen once the eyewall replacement cycle is done.


Figure 1. MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Typhoon Neoguri taken at 02:05 UTC July 6, 2014. At the time, Neoguri was a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Radar image of Super Typhoon Neoguri approaching Miyako-jima Island, Japan, at 12:45 am local time Tuesday, July 8, 2014. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Forecast for Neoguri
The official Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast calls for Neoguri to complete its eyewall replacement cycle and intensify into a Category 5 typhoon with 160 mph winds by Tuesday. The official Japan Meteorological Agency forecast also calls for intensification, with the typhoon dropping from its current 930 mb pressure to 915 mb by 03 UTC on Tuesday. While intensification is certainly possible, I think it is more likely that Neoguri has peaked in intensity, given the level of disruption to the storm apparent on satellite images. The 00Z Monday runs of our two top track models, the GFS and European models, showed Neoguri passing about 150 miles southwest of Okinawa near 00 UTC Tuesday. Okinawa will be in the right front quadrant of Neoguri, but if the present track forecast holds, the top winds on the south end of the island will stay below hurricane force. Stronger winds will be felt on Miyako-jima island, south of Okinawa, which may see the weak (left) eyewall of the typhoon.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for Neoguri will be as high as 100 J/kg/cm^2 on Monday, a level which is favorable for rapid intensification. Forecast positions from the 5 am EDT Joint Typhoon Warning Center advisory from July 7, 2014, are superimposed. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Neoguri has been caught by a trough of low pressure and is headed for the Japanese island of Kyushu, where the city of Nagasaki lies. Nagasaki had upwards of 8 inches of rain on Thursday, and parts of Kyushu saw 10 inches of rain on Friday, thanks to a stalled stationary front over the island. With the soils already saturated from these heavy rains, the torrential rains from Neoguri are sure to cause major flooding on Wednesday and Thursday. The latest 00Z and 06Z Monday runs of the European and GFS models showed a delayed arrival in Kyushu compared to earlier runs, with landfall now expected to occur between 00 - 04 UTC on Thursday. Although ocean temperatures will cool and wind shear will rise as Neoguri approaches Japan, weakening the storm, the typhoon is so large and powerful that it will likely make landfall with at least Category 2 strength, causing major damage in Japan. Neoguri is the 7th named storm and 3rd typhoon of the 2014 Western Pacific typhoon season. The other two typhoons of 2014--Typhoon Faxai and Typhoon Tapah--were both Category 1 storms. Neoguri, pronounced "NAW-guh-ree", is named after the Korean word for raccoon dog. It is also a brand of ramen noodle in Korea.

Links
Storm chasers Josh Morgerman, Mark Thomas, and James Reynolds, who intercepted Super Typhoon Haiyan at its peak fury when it devastated the Philippines last year, are on Miyako-jima island, south of Okinawa. Miyako-jima appears likely to receive a visit by the weak (left) eyewall of Neoguri, and you can follow their experience at http://www.icyclone.com/.

Japanese radar

Kadena AFB, Okinawa Facebook page

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr Masters.
I told you...Neoguri will not become a category 5 super typhoon.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TYPHOON FLORITA
11:00 PM PhST July 7 2014
====================

Typhoon Florita has maintained it strength as it continues to move in a north northwest direction

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Florita [NEOGURI] (938 hPa) located at 22.9N 126.7E or 500 km east northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gustiness up to 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 10 knots.

Additional Information
===================
Typhoon "FLORITA" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over Metro Manila, Western Visayas, MIMAROPA and the provinces of Zambales, Bataan, Cavite and Batangas while the rest of Luzon and of Visayas will have occasional rains.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and the seaboards of Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
Thanks Doc
Thanks Dr Masters. It looks to be struggling from more than the onset of an ewrc imo.

though not shown in the outlook .. JMA still has "intense typhoon" 105 knots 915 hPa in the forecast at 3:00 AM UTC July 8



Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NEOGURI (T1408)
0:00 AM JST July 8 2014
=============================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon 240 KM Southeast Of Miyakojima

At 15:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Neoguri (930 hPa) located at 23.1N 126.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
140 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
375 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
240 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 27.9N 126.0E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) north northwest of Kume Island
45 HRS: 30.7N 127.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
69 HRS: 32.5N 131.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) overland Kyushu
Some Rain bands from Neoguri near Taiwan





Link for NHK World English, the Japanese news agency. Govt. preparing for powerful typhoon
Also Japan Today English
Japan issues highest alert as typhoon approaches Okinawa
A list of Japanese media (some in English) can be found here.

Reid WisemanVerified account ‏@astro_reid

#Typhoon Neoguri is directly over @Wiseman4th in #Okinawa

Typhoon Neoguri about 150 miles S or SSW of Okinawa where it is about 1:30 in the morning. Neoguri is tracking NNW/N at 10 kts and is forecast to weaken as it approaches Okinawa and Japan. and that process looks to be underway.

Thanks Doc.
Quoting 12. ncstorm:


Reid WisemanVerified account ‏@astro_reid

#Typhoon Neoguri is directly over @Wiseman4th in #Okinawa



Hey NCstorm...

that's a great picture from space...
:)
Thank you Dr. Masters....Scary situation whether a 5 or a 3.....
Quoting GatorWX:
Thanks Dr Masters. It looks to be struggling from more than the onset of an ewrc imo.


I agree. Neoguri hasn't been able to maintain a consistent structure in all quadrants, especially in the north and northwest, where heavy thunderstorm activity has waxed and waned. It has near perfect conditions...except for the continued ingestion of dry air. As I have been saying for a while now, dry air is a big deal for all tropical storm, regardless of how big they are or where they are located in the world.
Tropical Wave near 30w and between 5-10n showing signs of organization and potential surface low genesis. Waiting for further satellite data before committing fully on this potential low rider.
Okinawa will be on the strong/worst weather side (east ) of Neoguri. Lot's of webcams....here's a few links. It is 0140 Local Time in Okinawa.

Link

Link
Quoting GatorWX:
Thanks Dr Masters. It looks to be struggling from more than the onset of an ewrc imo.


Dry air has always been an issue for this storm because of its large size; the storm is literally pulling air in from the Indian Ocean and central Pacific according to the earth wind map. As Levi pointed out on Twitter, when a storm gets too big, it can't effectively keep the dry air out of the circulation. Ike, Sandy, and Irene all had these issues.
Some nice supercell/tornado pics.

Mitch Dobrowner, Fine Art Photography

There is a scroll bar below the thumbnails.
Atlantic wide



Quoting 21. bappit:

Some nice supercell/tornado pics.

Mitch Dobrowner, Fine Art Photography

There is a scroll bar below the thumbnails.


those are beautiful...black and white seems to define the beauty #3
24. JRRP

the wave look nice
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38A
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NEOGURI (T1408)
1:00 AM JST July 8 2014
=============================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon 210 KM Southeast Of Miyakojima

At 16:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Neoguri (930 hPa) located at 23.3N 126.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
140 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
375 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
240 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Quoting 17. sar2401:


I agree. Neoguri hasn't been able to maintain a consistent structure in all quadrants, especially in the north and northwest, where heavy thunderstorm activity has waxed and waned. It has near perfect conditions...except for the continued ingestion of dry air. As I have been saying for a while now, dry air is a big deal for all tropical storm, regardless of how big they are or where they are located in the world.


That's what looks to be the case.
The real danger with Typhoon Tanuki (the Japanese name for racoondog) is the landslides from saturated soils. I hope Kyushu is ready. their mythic tanuki is classic for what is about to happen there.
Thank you Dr. Masters! Sending well wishes to residents and tourists in Japan and hoping for a much weaker Neoguri by the time it gets to Okinawa.

Meanwhile in the Atlantic things look quiet, the wave I was watching yesterday took a bite out of the SAL and is riding along the southern periphery of the A-B High. Will continue to monitor it as it treks across the Central Atlantic and approaches the islands later this week, at the very least if it holds together may bring some much needed rains to the Windward Islands and Trinidad & Tobago.

Quoting 24. JRRP:


the wave look nice
Yep.
Thanks. Dr. We have been seeing some very strong high-cat storms in the Pacific basin the last several years and not as many in the Atlantic basin in recent years. Any potential answers to that question is way above my head-pay grade......................
Ike developed a large wind field as it moved northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico over the next 3 days, with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 275 miles from the center and hurricane-force winds extending up to 115 miles from the center. The hurricane gradually intensified as it moved across the Gulf toward the Texas coast. Ike made landfall over the north end of Galveston Island in the early morning hours of September 13 as a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The hurricane weakened as it moved inland across eastern Texas and Arkansas and became extratropical over the middle Mississippi Valley on September 14. It then moved rapidly through the Ohio valley and into Canada, producing wind gusts to hurricane force along the way.

Link

So what do you guys think when the NHC decides to do a reanalysis of Ike, do you think they bump it up to Cat. 3 at landfall?
Quoting 21. bappit:

Some nice supercell/tornado pics.

Mitch Dobrowner, Fine Art Photography

There is a scroll bar below the thumbnails.


some very nice photo's .. the Aw of Mother Nature !!
Thanks Dr. do you happen to know why it has quite slowed down recently, hovering east of Taiwan en route to Japan? I'm here in the Philippines btw, the "Habagat" winds (southwesterly) winds brought by the typhoon affecting us here in Manila.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Okinawa will be on the strong/worst weather side (east ) of Neoguri. Lot's of webcams....here's a few links. It is 0140 Local Time in Okinawa.

Link

Link

Thanks, Joe, nice links. So far, things look OK on Okinawa. Rainy and windy but most of the webcams work, there's power, and the traffic on the expressways looks like the normal 2 in the morning flow, which, for Okinawa, means lots of cars on the road.
From Wiki
The Northwest Pacific Ocean is the most active basin on the planet. Annually, an average of 25.7 tropical cyclones in the basin acquire tropical storm strength or greater; also, an average of 16 typhoons occurred each year during the 1968–1989 period.[3] The basin occupies all the territory north of the equator and west of the International Date Line, including the South China Sea.[1] The basin sees activity year-round; however, tropical activity is at its minimum in February and March.

1980 - 2005

Quoting 31. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks. Dr. We have been seeing some very strong high-cat storms in the Pacific basin the last several years and not as many in the Atlantic basin in recent years. Any potential answers to that question is way above my head-pay grade......................


I believe since I was born we're always battered here in the Philippines by typhoons. Normal for us. The NorthWest Pacific breeds the strongest cyclones/hurricanes/typhoons as it has the warmest ocean temperatures on earth.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
The big picture

Quoting pablosyn@002:
I told you...Neoguri will not become a category 5 super typhoon.
Hmm? Did you mean to type that Neoguri will cease to be a Super Typhoon?

Because clearly it has achieved that status already.
Given the very large area in the Pacific Basin, there is a lot of room there for higher SST's as well in a warming world; I would also note that SAL from Africa does not enter into the Pacific Basin (it only propagates into the Atlantic Basin) so their is nothing shielding the NW Pacific waters. Seems like shear and SST's are the only real limiting factors during the Pacific tropical storm season.
Quoting 361. StormWx:

Can anyone say bye bye El Nino? The 3.4 region has dropped below 0.3C and the Nino 4 region is now below 0.0C. So much for the strong and super el nino forecasters on here!






That's the Levi Cowan graph. The buoys have not agreed with that satellite data.
99E

I don't think dry air will have much to do with it after tonight. Neoguri will be moving into a much more favorable environment by tonight and early tomorrow when it begins to make its turn. It looks like it could be a Cat 5 easily.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ike developed a large wind field as it moved northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico over the next 3 days, with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 275 miles from the center and hurricane-force winds extending up to 115 miles from the center. The hurricane gradually intensified as it moved across the Gulf toward the Texas coast. Ike made landfall over the north end of Galveston Island in the early morning hours of September 13 as a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The hurricane weakened as it moved inland across eastern Texas and Arkansas and became extratropical over the middle Mississippi Valley on September 14. It then moved rapidly through the Ohio valley and into Canada, producing wind gusts to hurricane force along the way.

Link

So what do you guys think when the NHC decides to do a reanalysis of Ike, do you think they bump it up to Cat. 3 at landfall?

I clearly don't know the answer but we're only talking about a difference of 1 mph to get Ike to cat 3. Ike seemed to have followed a typical pattern for a CV storm making the long trip. It was at its greatest intensity over the Leewards and Cuba. It intensified again over the warm Loop Current in the Gulf but weakened as it approached the shallower shelf waters along the Texas coast. I wish there was a way we could quantity the amount of rain and storm surge a storm carries, since Ike was a killer primarily due to freshwater flooding, not to mention storm surge. It's really kind of irrelevant if Ike was 110 mph or 111 mph at landfall. The damage caused just by hurricane force winds in the US was minimal. It comes to the rather arcane "major" designation, and that only matters to weather forecasters and historians, not to the people affected by the storm.
How is it possible for a storm to look like this?????

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks. Dr. We have been seeing some very strong high-cat storms in the Pacific basin the last several years and not as many in the Atlantic basin in recent years. Any potential answers to that question is way above my head-pay grade......................


The WPAC has always been like that. Usually the WPAC cranks out 1-3 Category 5 Typhoon's a year, whereas the Atlantic might see one every 3 years at a rough guess. Higher abundance of TCHP, more ocean, et al. The WPAC is simply way more favorable than the Atlantic for tropical cyclone development.
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters.
Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Ike developed a large wind field as it moved northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico over the next 3 days, with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 275 miles from the center and hurricane-force winds extending up to 115 miles from the center. The hurricane gradually intensified as it moved across the Gulf toward the Texas coast. Ike made landfall over the north end of Galveston Island in the early morning hours of September 13 as a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The hurricane weakened as it moved inland across eastern Texas and Arkansas and became extratropical over the middle Mississippi Valley on September 14. It then moved rapidly through the Ohio valley and into Canada, producing wind gusts to hurricane force along the way.

Link

So what do you guys think when the NHC decides to do a reanalysis of Ike, do you think they bump it up to Cat. 3 at landfall?

Reanalysis won't be there for another decade at least, and I don't know if they even plan on going that far into the 2000s. The landfall intensity of 95kt makes sense though given 105kt flight-level winds and SFMR winds of 90kt.


Looks pretty bad right now
Quoting rayduray2013:

Hmm? Did you mean to type that Neoguri will cease to be a Super Typhoon?

Because clearly it has achieved that status already.

I really wish they'd get rid of the term "Super Typhoon". It just means a strong cat 4 or cat 5 storm. Then we get the Japanese throwing in additional terms like "violent". It seems rational that we should be able to agree on one classification system to be used worldwide, maybe with some wiggle room for the differences between Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes. I won't hold my breath waiting for that to happen. :-)
Quoting silas:
How is it possible for a storm to look like this?????


I don't understand your question. Many typhoons in that area have looked far more intense on satellite. Except for the eye structure, the rest of Neoguri looks pretty ragged. I wish there were hurricane hunter planes flying into Neoguri, since we are dependent on satellite analysis for intensity. Given the relative wealth and technological advancement of Japan, there's no reason why the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force shouldn't have an HH fleet at least the equal to the US.
99E organizing nicely... 12Z GFS doesn' even show a isobar for this storm
Currently 40%

98E... down to yellow...


I have been having a hard time trying to come to this FSU (Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields) site where I get these graphics... looks like they changed them a bit now.
Earlier today's 00Z CMC shows something nearing Hawaii... no worries there
CNN) -- At least one person was killed as a 6.9-magnitude earthquake struck Monday morning in southern Mexico's Chiapas state near the border with Guatemala, authorities in Chiapas said.

The quake happened at 6:23 a.m. (7:23 a.m. ET), about 1 mile from Puerto Madero, Mexico, which is on the country's Pacific coast.
Quoting 51. nwobilderburg:



Looks pretty bad right now

the western side of the storm looks very damaged... little impacts for Taiwan I believe...
just some high waves there.
Quoting archipelagicchemist:


I believe since I was born we're always battered here in the Philippines by typhoons. Normal for us. The NorthWest Pacific breeds the strongest cyclones/hurricanes/typhoons as it has the warmest ocean temperatures on earth.

Indeed. The Philippines probably has a greater number of types of natural disasters than almost any country of comparable size. Given the Philippines natural and human resources, the country should be rich and have the infrastructure to better deal with things like typhoons. It's kind of ridiculous for a country the size of the Philippines to have 3 more or less reliable heavy transport aircraft and a helicopter fleet that's half flying junk. I hope that, someday, the people of the Philippines will get an honest and efficient government.
Quoting LargoFl:
CNN) -- At least one person was killed as a 6.9-magnitude earthquake struck Monday morning in southern Mexico's Chiapas state near the border with Guatemala, authorities in Chiapas said.

The quake happened at 6:23 a.m. (7:23 a.m. ET), about 1 mile from Puerto Madero, Mexico, which is on the country's Pacific coast.

That earthquake also affected Guatemala as well with unconfirmed reports of 5 dead so far. The area has very poor communications so I'm sure that number will rise. The earthquake wasn't felt in Mexico City so we'll hear very little about it.

Quoting sar2401:

I don't understand your question. Many typhoons in that area have looked far more intense on satellite. Except for the eye structure, the rest of Neoguri looks pretty ragged. I wish there were hurricane hunter planes flying into Neoguri, since we are dependent on satellite analysis for intensity. Given the relative wealth and technological advancement of Japan, there's no reason why the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force shouldn't have an HH fleet at least the equal to the US.
I just meant that usually storms with well defined eyes and eyewalls also have intense convection to go with it, especially in the Western Pacific. In fact, this storm did just a couple of days ago. So to clarify my question, why is there no intense convection in this storm? I would be really interested to see what HH would find if they went in right now...
Quoting MaxWeather:
99E organizing nicely... 12Z GFS doesn' even show a isobar for this storm
Currently 40%

98E... down to yellow...


I have been having a hard time trying to come to this FSU (Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields) site where I get these graphics... looks like they changed them a bit now.
Earlier today's 00Z CMC shows something nearing Hawaii... no worries there

Look at the size of the A-B high. This has been a persistent feature over the last several years and has killed almost all storms trying to make the trip from the MDR. Regardless of El Nino or the lack thereof, this setup is not good for tropical Atlantic hurricane development. If one does to somehow make it across, the Caribbean up to Texas would appear to be good targets.
63. JRRP
The wind speeds on Ike at landfall are kind of irrelevant since most of the damage was done by the storm surge which was enhanced by the size of the storm and a trapped wave moving along the Gulf Coast. From the TCR:

"Higher-than-normal water levels affected virtually the entire U.S. Gulf Coast. As the hurricane grew in size, the large wind field pushed water towards the coastline well before Ike's center made landfall near Galveston, Texas. Figure 5 shows maximum storm surge levels at various NOS tide stations, first occurring near the southwestern coast of Florida then migrating north and west along the Gulf Coast with time as Ike moved through the Gulf of Mexico."

A trapped wave enhanced the storm surge for Dennis. An article about Dennis points out that:

"This type of remotely trapped wave could play a role in future storms that follow a path similar to Hurricane Dennis or travel westward south of the Louisiana coastline toward Texas, the scientists said."
(emphasis added)
Quoting silas:

I just meant that usually storms with well defined eyes and eyewalls also have intense convection to go with it, especially in the Western Pacific. In fact, this storm did just a couple of days ago. So to clarify my question, why is there no intense convection in this storm? I would be really interested to see what HH would find if they went in right now...

The lack of aircraft flying into this storm is really obvious compared to all the data we were getting with Arthur. As I said in another post, there's absolutely no reason the Japanese shouldn't have a fleet of HH aircraft. Neoguri is experiencing many of the same dry air issues that affected Arthur. The deep convection is lopsided as it can only develop away from the dry air being ingested. The Japanese TWC believes that Neoguri will intensify into a category 5 storm again. I don't believe that will happen. The dry air ingestion will continue, and shear will be increasing as the SST's decrease. That's just my uneducated guess though.
Quoting silas:

I just meant that usually storms with well defined eyes and eyewalls also have intense convection to go with it, especially in the Western Pacific. In fact, this storm did just a couple of days ago. So to clarify my question, why is there no intense convection in this storm? I would be really interested to see what HH would find if they went in right now...

Dr. M's blog at the top of this very page explains how Neoguri is going through an eye wall replacement cycle. That explains the lack of convection in the core.
long range GFS shows the potential of a strong TW to start to get its act together. end of the month is when we should watch for some CV development
I wonder if Dr. Ryan is reading this blog..


Ryan N. Maue @RyanMaue · 42m

US Military used to fly recon regularly into Typhoons until 1987. Hard to know what's going on with #Neoguri ... basically fell apart.
Quoting vis0:
May all people in the path of Super Typhoon Neoguri take the storm seriously and be warned to take the correct type of shelter & be helped in rebuilding there lives.

Closer to the U.S.
CREDIT:: NOAA.NASA goes-e satellite via Canada.gov

Subject:: POI3b (as i explained in detail in 2010, i use POI to identify an AREA(point) of Interest, so there is no confusion as to think its an active Invest, it is not.
If a POI "breaks down"/pulled by a front but another POI forms in the same area within 72hrs. i give it the same POI# but add a letter.
Two days ago i had a POI3 off the East coast of Florida, that is hanging around but a next area of disturbance is coming from the SE to that old POI3 so its renamed POI3b, there will be a test tomorrow so study, don't worry it'll be on Trigonometry its easier to understand than what you just read.

Imagery type:: IR (clr-cloud temperatures)
Imagery period:: 201407-05;2145UTc till 201407-07;1515UTC


LOL. Vis, you've come up with a naming system even more complicated than the NHC. :-) You are definitely the king of YouTube short videos though.
Quoting 45. sar2401:


I clearly don't know the answer but we're only talking about a difference of 1 mph to get Ike to cat 3. Ike seemed to have followed a typical pattern for a CV storm making the long trip. It was at its greatest intensity over the Leewards and Cuba. It intensified again over the warm Loop Current in the Gulf but weakened as it approached the shallower shelf waters along the Texas coast. I wish there was a way we could quantity the amount of rain and storm surge a storm carries, since Ike was a killer primarily due to freshwater flooding, not to mention storm surge. It's really kind of irrelevant if Ike was 110 mph or 111 mph at landfall. The damage caused just by hurricane force winds in the US was minimal. It comes to the rather arcane "major" designation, and that only matters to weather forecasters and historians, not to the people affected by the storm.


I think a better measurement for storms like Ike, Rita, et. al. is the Integrated Kinetic Energy scale, which focuses more on radii of winds and storm surge rather than maximum sustained wind speed. Having been through both Rita and Ike in SW Louisiana (and Opal in Fl.) I can say " its not the wind...It's the Water..."
Quoting 69. ncstorm:

I wonder if Dr. Ryan is reading this blog..


Ryan N. Maue @RyanMaue · 42m

US Military used to fly recon regularly into Typhoons until 1987. Hard to know what's going on with #Neoguri ... basically fell apart.


Hi ncstorm, how did you fare with Arthur?
At moment Neoguri is the ugliest super typhoon i've seen.
Quoting 45. sar2401:


I clearly don't know the answer but we're only talking about a difference of 1 mph to get Ike to cat 3. Ike seemed to have followed a typical pattern for a CV storm making the long trip. It was at its greatest intensity over the Leewards and Cuba. It intensified again over the warm Loop Current in the Gulf but weakened as it approached the shallower shelf waters along the Texas coast. I wish there was a way we could quantity the amount of rain and storm surge a storm carries, since Ike was a killer primarily due to freshwater flooding, not to mention storm surge. It's really kind of irrelevant if Ike was 110 mph or 111 mph at landfall. The damage caused just by hurricane force winds in the US was minimal. It comes to the rather arcane "major" designation, and that only matters to weather forecasters and historians, not to the people affected by the storm.
Thanks and that is true we are only talking about it from a scientific or technical perspective. For some Meteorologist they might care since it would add to the statistic of major hurricane landfalls in the US, but to the folks impacted by the storm they could careless if it was a strong 2 or weak 3 since impacts would be the same anyway you slice it. By the way I see Houstonweathergirl liked your replied. I would really like to know what her problem is with me? I guess we all have haters who follow us or stalk us which is kind of weird.
Quoting 73. pablosyn:

At moment Neoguri is the ugliest super typhoon i've seen.


Winds are probably 115 to 120mph IMO. Maybe we should move sar2401 to Japan for Typhoon forecasting.
Quoting 62. sar2401:


Look at the size of the A-B high. This has been a persistent feature over the last several years and has killed almost all storms trying to make the trip from the MDR. Regardless of El Nino or the lack thereof, this setup is not good for tropical Atlantic hurricane development. If one does to somehow make it across, the Caribbean up to Texas would appear to be good targets.


I'd never heard of the A/B high inhibiting hurricane formation, so did a google. This, from Wikipedia:

"This high-pressure block exhibits anticyclonic nature, circulating the air clockwise. Due to this direction of movement, African eastern waves are impelled along the southern periphery of the Azores High away from coastal West Africa towards the Caribbean and Central America, favoring tropical cyclogenesis, especially during the hurricane season."
Quoting 72. StormTrackerScott:



Hi ncstorm, how did you fare with Arthur?


we did well..beautiful weekend afterwards too..
Link


Wind Shear F'cst.
Quoting 76. yonzabam:



I'd never heard of the A/B high inhibiting hurricane formation, so did a google. This, from Wikipedia:

"This high-pressure block exhibits anticyclonic nature, circulating the air clockwise. Due to this direction of movement, African eastern waves are impelled along the southern periphery of the Azores High away from coastal West Africa towards the Caribbean and Central America, favoring tropical cyclogenesis, especially during the hurricane season."
a strong A/B high is not good because it pushes sinking air into the MDR which impedes tropical development. right now the biggest problem is SAL. just won't seem to go away. WAY TOO MUCH OF IT. hope it vanishes going into august
Quoting 48. CybrTeddy:



The WPAC has always been like that. Usually the WPAC cranks out 1-3 Category 5 Typhoon's a year, whereas the Atlantic might see one every 3 years at a rough guess. Higher abundance of TCHP, more ocean, et al. The WPAC is simply way more favorable than the Atlantic for tropical cyclone development.
In addition, the season has no starting or end point, it's year around. As well as they don't have to deal with the SAL and there is more warmer water over the surface area of the Pacific than the Atlantic.
Quoting 66. sar2401:


As I said in another post, there's absolutely no reason the Japanese shouldn't have a fleet of HH aircraft.


They're expensive and Japan is generally one of the best when it comes to preparing for a Typhoon? I don't see any reason why they would need HH aircraft when they do a good job preparing and forecasting without them. Not to mention the extra hastle flying them would be in regards to possible dispuits with the many other countries that are also in the Western Pacific.
Quoting 79. wunderweatherman123:

a strong A/B high is not good because it pushes sinking air into the MDR which impedes tropical development. right now the biggest problem is SAL. just won't seem to go away. WAY TOO MUCH OF IT. hope it vanishes going into august


But doesn't it stay north of the MDR, and the persistent high pressure raise SSTs?
Tips from space give long-range warning of flood risk

Satellite monitoring of tiny changes in the gravitational field of river basins may give up to 11 months' warning of disastrous floods, a study published on Sunday said.
Researchers at the University of California at Irvine drew up a map of the Mississippi River basin combining knowledge about land use and data from a NASA gravity-monitoring satellite called GRACE.
Minute increases in the gravitational pull pointed to higher "wetness" of the land, they found.
This is an early pointer to how a river will respond when the basin is suddenly hit by exceptional rain or snowmelt.
The drier the land is, the more able it is to soak up and store the water—but if it is already quite moist, the water will run off quickly into the river and pump its level.
The scientists tested their technique retroactively on the May-June 2011 flooding of the Missouri River—a disaster that statistically occurs only once ever 500 years.
The model can give a broad but useful predictor of flood risk from six to 11 months ahead, they said.


Link
Quoting 63. JRRP:



It is very evident that as this month progresses, and as climatology favors, that we will need to begin watching the African Easterly Waves that emerge. Though consistency in the models has been lacking in development with any specific tropical wave, it does give a hint that we will need to begin watching that area as the end of July comes around.

99E appears that it is organizing quite nicely as it has a good amount of strong thunderstorm activity with good structure. There isn't evidence of a surface circulation quite yet, but it is on it's way to possibly becoming the Eastern Pacific's sixth named storm, which would be Fausto.



East Pacific


North Atlantic
Quoting 84. TylerStanfield:


It is very evident that as this month progresses, and as climatology favors, that we will need to begin watching the African Easterly Waves that emerge. Though consistency in the models has been lacking in development with any specific tropical wave, it does give a hint that we will need to begin watching that area as the end of July comes around.

99E appears that it is organizing quite nicely as it has a good amount of strong thunderstorm activity with good structure. There isn't evidence of a surface circulation quite yet, but it is on it's way to possibly becoming the Eastern Pacific's sixth named storm, which would be Fausto.



East Pacific


North Atlantic



I think already is TD 6-E.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Winds are probably 115 to 120mph IMO. Maybe we should move sar2401 to Japan for Typhoon forecasting.

They might be able to use your help for rain forecasting also.
You can see Neoguri's eye very well now on Japanese radar:



Link
Quoting yonzabam:


I'd never heard of the A/B high inhibiting hurricane formation, so did a google. This, from Wikipedia:

"This high-pressure block exhibits anticyclonic nature, circulating the air clockwise. Due to this direction of movement, African eastern waves are impelled along the southern periphery of the Azores High away from coastal West Africa towards the Caribbean and Central America, favoring tropical cyclogenesis, especially during the hurricane season."

That's when the A-B high is "normal". The vast area covered by high pressure leads to sinking, dry, stable air, not what you want for TS formation. If we can get a storm to form and ride the southern edge of the high, the likely path would be the Caribbean and western Gulf. A storm forming at low latitude would have the best chance of surviving. African westerly waves are being impacted by not only higher pressures but also SAL and dry air that will be sucked in from the A-B high.
Quoting Envoirment:


They're expensive and Japan is generally one of the best when it comes to preparing for a Typhoon? I don't see any reason why they would need HH aircraft when they do a good job preparing and forecasting without them. Not to mention the extra hastle flying them would be in regards to possible dispuits with the many other countries that are also in the Western Pacific.

Of course they're expensive. Ours are certainly not cheap. What they gain is real-time data for a storm, not just satellite views and Dvorak estimations. Japan is affected by tropical storms about as many times as the continental US, and more data from typhoons would help immensely in improving forecast accuracy. What we see on a satellite is not actual data on what the storm is doing. There's no substitute for an airplane in that case. You have a point about the national border disputes but, in this case, an HH airplane would be flying in undisputed Japanese air space.
Quoting 40. rayduray2013:


Hmm? Did you mean to type that Neoguri will cease to be a Super Typhoon?

Because clearly it has achieved that status already.

It achieve super typhoon status but winds of 155mph which is an upper cat 4 it didn't make it to 5.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Thanks and that is true we are only talking about it from a scientific or technical perspective. For some Meteorologist they might care since it would add to the statistic of major hurricane landfalls in the US, but to the folks impacted by the storm they could careless if it was a strong 2 or weak 3 since impacts would be the same anyway you slice it. By the way I see Houstonweathergirl liked your replied. I would really like to know what her problem is with me? I guess we all have haters who follow us or stalk us which is kind of weird.

One of the advantages in using Classic is that I never see who "liked" my posts. I also don't plus any posts. I just give my input to the best of my ability. That's all most people here do as well, including you. There will always be someone who doesn't like me, but I worry more about real people than anonymous posters on the internet. In the end, I have a fiance, three cats, and a dog who love me. That's way more important than pluses. :-)
Here's a "Super Typhoon."
Oh, my mistake. It's only Hurricane Wilma.

Quoting 91. sar2401:

One of the advantages in using Classic is that I never see who "liked" my posts. I also don't plus any posts. I just give my input to the best of my ability. That's all most people here do as well, including you. There will always be someone who doesn't like me, but I worry more about real people than anonymous posters on the internet. In the end, I have a fiance, three cats, and a dog who love me. That's way more important than pluses. :-)


Agreed Sar :o) But I only have 1 kitten lol


Taco :o)
They might be able to use your help for rain forecasting also.





ta da da boom!
Quoting ricderr:
They might be able to use your help for rain forecasting also.





ta da da boom!


How about tsunami forecasting? That's a serious concern to Japan.
They get just about every natural disaster in Japan.
Quoting 94. ricderr:

They might be able to use your help for rain forecasting also.





ta da da boom!


I would help you but El-Paso doesn't get any rain or should I say anything of significance. Speaking of rain beginning to cloud up here in Orlando for yet another day of heavy thunderstorms. 6.57" at my place on Saturday with 7" in NW Orange County. Sunday thunder all day but only .06 we were able to manage.




Quoting sar2401:

The lack of aircraft flying into this storm is really obvious compared to all the data we were getting with Arthur. As I said in another post, there's absolutely no reason the Japanese shouldn't have a fleet of HH aircraft. Neoguri is experiencing many of the same dry air issues that affected Arthur. The deep convection is lopsided as it can only develop away from the dry air being ingested. The Japanese TWC believes that Neoguri will intensify into a category 5 storm again. I don't believe that will happen. The dry air ingestion will continue, and shear will be increasing as the SST's decrease. That's just my uneducated guess though.
Storms like this are very hard to forecast. If it continues to not be able to fire deep convection, then Japan may get very lucky. But who really knows. There's no way to forecast when and if it will strengthen again.
How about tsunami forecasting? That's a serious concern to Japan.
They get just about every natural disaster in Japan.


they get hit with everything.....one of our old time bloggers is now a met for a japanese news agency.....checksd out his facebook page...and no mention of this one......
100. silas

Quoting bappit:

Dr. M's blog at the top of this very page explains how Neoguri is going through an eye wall replacement cycle. That explains the lack of convection in the core.
Agreed, but that can't be the only factor. There has to be a more thorough explanation.
Quoting 100. silas:


Agreed, but that can't be the only factor. There has to be a more thorough explanation.



Yep, I don't see how an EWRC results in dry air entrainment, which is quite clearly going on.
More intense convection starting to surround the eye again in the last couple frames:

Quoting 100. silas:


Agreed, but that can't be the only factor. There has to be a more thorough explanation.


Its circulation is too large. The storm is pulling in a lot of dry air right into the core, collapsing thunderstorms.
Has a Storm ever made it from the eastern pacific all the way across to affect a country in the western pacific?
I've always thought that the + feature is one of the best ways to agree with someone and not clutter up the blog with trite posts like "+100000 on that one, WUrat".

Not plussing posts also seems like a self centered way of being. Just seems like I rarely see plusses from people who come across as thinking a lot of themselves.
106. MAstu
that was quite the downgrade... yesterday it was looking like it was going to spend a day or so as a cat 5 and now...
107. SLU
Quoting 63. JRRP:




Of course it's not gonna happen but that's enough to keep us on our toes by reminding us what time of year it is.
Quoting 105. bappit:

I've always thought that the + feature is one of the best ways to agree with someone and not clutter up the blog with trite posts like "+100000 on that one, WUrat".

Not plussing posts also seems like a self centered way of being. Just seems like I rarely see plusses from people who come across as thinking a lot of themselves.


+100001, I mean what other response was there to this. :)
Quoting taco2me61:


Agreed Sar :o) But I only have 1 kitten lol


Taco :o)

That's OK. One kitten is worth more than a hundred pluses. No one here can sit in your lap and purr when you're having a bad day. :-)
Quoting 104. VAbeachhurricanes:

Has a Storm ever made it from the eastern pacific all the way across to affect a country in the western pacific?


No, although there have been a few to crossover from Eastern to Western Pacific.

Link
Hello friends of turbulent skies! And sympathies to all in the path of Neoguri. I'm glad to see the system weakening a bit.

I must confess nevertheless that in the moment my eyes are glued to European weather maps, as Germany (and adjacent countries) expects freak weather tonight and especially tomorrow in the East and North. Culprit is a deepening chanel of low pressure (named "Michaela") where warm air from the southeast and cool moist air from the Atlantic will mix, causing: excessive rain in tropical amounts, ferocious storms, very large hail, maybe tornadoes - whatever you want ;-) Serious prewarnings are out, and some weather service utters really bullish words. Moreover, the peak of the threat will happen tomorrow afternoon/evening when soccer-Germany will gather in large crowds to watch the match Germany-Brazil open air, huh ....


Current airmass in Europe (saved pic).


Convective precipitation tomorrow afternoon.


Streamlines and convergence tomorrow afternoon.

Source and many more forecast maps (shear, cape) here, thanks to GFS and Estofex. People with more knowledge than I have, may be interested to have a closer look.

Wet stuff is already developing south of me and heading my way (Mainz near Frankfurt), and I'm very curious whether some of the promised deluge will hit me later on tonight.





Very active real time lightning map.



Outlook from weatheronline.uk for Tuesday
Low pressure deepens and becomes an active feature across central Europe late Monday into Tuesday, with some very heavy falls of rain for western Germany, Switzerland, Austria and eastern parts of France. Heavy rain later moves north toward the Netherlands. There may be flash flooding with 100mm possible in some areas over a couple of days in some parts of central Europe. Heavy thundery showers also extend across much of France, northern Italy, Austria and the Czech Republic.
Quoting 102. Envoirment:

More intense convection starting to surround the eye again in the last couple frames:




Yes, I don't think any dry air with this becoming a CAT by tonight or tomorrow. Conditions will become very favorable.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Has a Storm ever made it from the eastern pacific all the way across to affect a country in the western pacific?

Not that I'm aware but I'm sure someone will find one. :-) Eastern Pacific storms have gotten out to Hawaii but that's as far as I know. We've also only had even halfway decent records of Pacific hurricanes for less than 100 years so it's hard to say what could have happened over all the time that the Pacific was just a blank in terms of weather observations.
Nada
Quoting 103. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its circulation is too large. The storm is pulling in a lot of dry air right into the core, collapsing thunderstorms.


It was just going through a normal EWR. Look at it by tonight.
GT...why on earth would you think that I have a problem with you simply because I did not plus a comment? I am not a "follower", "hater" or "stalker" of you. I don't know you. I had no idea one could cause such feelings by typing keystroke. I do not have any problem with you at all but perhaps you shouldn't take yourself quite so seriously?

SAR: since his personal comment about me generated a response from you--I don't have a cat, but I do have three dogs; unlike you I am not engaged but I have one child, earn six figures and my stock is doing quite well.

Quoting 74. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Thanks and that is true we are only talking about it from a scientific or technical perspective. For some Meteorologist they might care since it would add to the statistic of major hurricane landfalls in the US, but to the folks impacted by the storm they could careless if it was a strong 2 or weak 3 since impacts would be the same anyway you slice it. By the way I see Houstonweathergirl liked your replied. I would really like to know what her problem is with me? I guess we all have haters who follow us or stalk us which is kind of weird.
Quoting barbamz:
Hello friends of turbulent skies! And sympathies to all in the path of Neoguri. I'm glad to see the system weakening a bit.

I must confess nevertheless that in the moment my eyes are glued to European weather maps, as Germany expects freak weather tonight and especially tomorrow in the East and North. Culprit is a deepening chanel of low pressure (named "Michaela") where warm air from the southeast and cool moist air from the Atlantic will mix, causing: excessive rain in tropical amounts, ferocious storms, very large hail, maybe tornados - whatever you want ;-) Serious prewarnings are out, and some weather service utters really bullish words. Moreover, the peak of the threat will happen tomorrow afternoon/evening when soccer-Germany will gather in large crowds to watch the match Germany-Brazil open air, huh ....


Current airmass in Europe (saved pic).


Convective precipitation tomorrow afternoon.


Streamlines and convergence tomorrow afternoon.

Source and many more forecast maps (shear, cape) here, thanks to GFS and Estofex. People with more knowledge than I have, may be interested to have a closer look.

Wet stuff is already developing south of me and heading my way (Mainz near Frankfurt), and I'm very curious whether some of the promised deluge will hit me later on tonight.




After seeing the video of your recent dust storm, I don't think I'd want to be watching the match outdoors. Hopefully you'll just get some needed rain. I'm ready for just about anything nature wants to throw at me if it includes rain. Day 11 of no rain and it's 94 degrees. Time to go water the plants again. :-)
Quoting 88. sar2401:


That's when the A-B high is "normal". The vast area covered by high pressure leads to sinking, dry, stable air, not what you want for TS formation. If we can get a storm to form and ride the southern edge of the high, the likely path would be the Caribbean and western Gulf. A storm forming at low latitude would have the best chance of surviving. African westerly waves are being impacted by not only higher pressures but also SAL and dry air that will be sucked in from the A-B high.


Add in the high vertical wind shear and the Carib. and Gulf are closed until further notice.
Quoting Houstonweathergrl:
GT...why on earth would you think that I have a problem with you simply because I did not plus a comment? I am not a "follower", "hater" or "stalker" of you. I don't know you. I had no idea one could cause such feelings by typing keystroke. I do not have any problem with you at all but perhaps you shouldn't take yourself quite so seriously?

SAR: since his personal comment about me generated a response from you--I don't have a cat, but I do have three dogs; unlike you I am not engaged but I have one child, earn six figures and my stock is doing quite well.


There you go. It sounds like a plus or minus won't affect your actual life. Caleb's post was in response to me but I wanted to throw in my own opinion about the whole plus and minus thing. Since I'm on Classic, I don't see who did what to my posts, and that's just fine by me. I even forget it's there most of the time. I'd take three dogs and a child who love me any time compared to being liked on the internet. :-)
Quoting 103. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its circulation is too large. The storm is pulling in a lot of dry air right into the core, collapsing thunderstorms.


Yeah I don't think I've ever seen a hurricane with that impressive of an eye that level intensity have that weak of convection. It must be a mid level drier layer.
our weather is strange today cloudy but really warm. don't get that too often in northern cali.
Quoting 75. StormTrackerScott:



Winds are probably 115 to 120mph IMO. Maybe we should move sar2401 to Japan for Typhoon forecasting.


Yeah, I am extremely skeptical that there could be 150 mph winds at the surface with such weak convection, maybe the other day when it still had a powerful eyewall.

Quoting 116. Grothar:



It was just going through a normal EWR. Look at it by tonight.


Ye, I don't get the dry air issue looking at the WV:



Looks pretty wet to me.
125. silas

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its circulation is too large. The storm is pulling in a lot of dry air right into the core, collapsing thunderstorms.
That makes sense. Thanks. Though I do wonder why the storm's structure has stayed so well preserved during this time of limited convection. Usually when the convection starts waning doesn't the organization deteriorate as well?
Konnichiwa sar-san
Quoting 81. Envoirment:



They're expensive and Japan is generally one of the best when it comes to preparing for a Typhoon? I don't see any reason why they would need HH aircraft when they do a good job preparing and forecasting without them. Not to mention the extra hastle flying them would be in regards to possible dispuits with the many other countries that are also in the Western Pacific.


they are well "equipped" for natural disasters but the research that comes from them is "priceless"
Yes, my point exactly! I generally enjoy most comments on here whether I agree or disagree but I don't normally respond. It is a weather blog and I hope it does not determine the outcome of one's life. While what I said is true, I was just poking a bit of fun at the two of you.

Quoting 120. sar2401:


There you go. It sounds like a plus or minus won't affect your actual life. Caleb's post was in response to me but I wanted to throw in my own opinion about the whole plus and minus thing. Since I'm on Classic, I don't see who did what to my posts, and that's just fine by me. I even forget it's there most of the time. I'd take three dogs and a child who love me any time compared to being liked on the internet. :-)
Typhoon Neoguri looking better than earlier this morning. Deeper convection firing around the eye.

Quoting 126. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Konnichiwa sar-san


Gesundheit.
Quoting 91. sar2401:


One of the advantages in using Classic is that I never see who "liked" my posts. I also don't plus any posts. I just give my input to the best of my ability. That's all most people here do as well, including you. There will always be someone who doesn't like me, but I worry more about real people than anonymous posters on the internet. In the end, I have a fiance, three cats, and a dog who love me. That's way more important than pluses. :-)
Well this particular blogger has something against me, one time I said something on the blog, and she came out of the woodwork and asked me something about doing bad in school like wishing me bad luck or something. I know that I do not wish people bad luck and I am not saying I'm perfect because nobody is perfect, but what she did there is a pretty low blow. I just ignored the comment and didn't even bother wasting my time in replying. Anyways, what you say is true, an anonymous person that hides behind a wall, so let's move on since we've gone off topic.
Neoguri is beginning to wrap around pretty good in a short time. If it does reach CAT 5, it will be short lived.

Quoting 124. Envoirment:



Ye, I don't get the dry air issue looking at the WV. Looks pretty wet to me.


TRMM caught Neoguri today:



Watch the great 3-D-animations to spot the huge gaps between the bands of rain (takes a while to load and start):

Quicktime

MPEG.
134. VR46L
Seems to be rebuilding convection

Quoting 116. Grothar:



It was just going through a normal EWR. Look at it by tonight.


I bow before the master!
Quoting 132. Grothar:

Neoguri is beginning to wrap around pretty good in a short time. If it does reach CAT 5, it will be short lived.


Convection seems kind of bare on the western flank and I think it's moving into cooler waters. Hopefully, we'll continue to see it weaken.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to provide an update on the
system south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure, located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development, if any, of this system should be slow
to occur as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Updated: Satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure area
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula is likely producing winds to gale
force to the southeast of its center. Although the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has been decreasing over the past
few hours, any increase in thunderstorm activity could result in
the formation of a tropical cyclone tonight or tomorrow while the
system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

Quoting 124. Envoirment:



Ye, I don't get the dry air issue looking at the WV:



Looks pretty wet to me.

Water vapor samples the upper-levels. The issue seems to be mid-level dry air, which won't appear on that product.

Quoting 125. silas:


That makes sense. Thanks. Though I do wonder why the storm's structure has stayed so well preserved during this time of limited convection. Usually when the convection starts waning doesn't the organization deteriorate as well?


If you're looking for a Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone, you generally want minimal dry air in the storm, period. However, it is possible for storms to maintain, if not intensify, as long as the dry air in the circulation isn't getting entrained into the core (eyewall/eye) itself. We saw this with Neoguri before today. Its Eyewall Replacement Cycle seems to have made the storm susceptible earlier.
Quoting 122. WaterWitch11:

our weather is strange today cloudy but really warm. don't get that too often in northern cali.


It is all the Monsoonal Moisture that came in the back door over the Sierras from Arizona and Nevada. Mostly missed SoCal, some way inland on the East but didn't get me.
Quoting 130. GeoffreyWPB:



Gesundheit.


dank u wel
Quoting 136. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Convection seems kind of bare on the western flank and I think it's moving into cooler waters. Hopefully, we'll continue to see it weaken.


You're wrong and I am not going to plus you :)
Quoting 138. PedleyCA:



It is all the Monsoonal Moisture that came in the back door over the Sierras from Arizona and Nevada. Mostly missed SoCal, some way inland on the East but didn't get me.


Nor I neighbor! Got enough to wet the street and enough humidity to make my ***** sweat!
Quoting 137. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Water vapor samples the upper-levels. The issue seems to be mid-level dry air, which won't appear on that product.


If you're looking for a Category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone, you generally want minimal dry air in the storm, period. However, it is possible for storms to maintain, if not intensify, as long as the dry air in the circulation isn't getting entrained into the core (eyewall/eye) itself. We saw this with Neoguri before today. Its Eyewall Replacement Cycle seems to have made the storm susceptible earlier.


Ye, that's true didn't see that. But the reason for most of Neoguri's collapse was due to the ERC. Afterall, Arthur maintained deeper convection than Neoguri was showing despite taking in dry air again and again and again. If Neoguri wasn't undergoing an ERC, it would've mixed it out quickly and wouldn't have had too much trouble with it due to its great structure and the very warm waters below it. Now that it's building its eye back up, it should be able to take advantage of the very favourable conditions to strengthen again. Although it only has a limited time to do so.
Quoting 140. Grothar:



You're wrong and I am not going to plus you :)


LOL
Nice day today 90 now, but the humidity is down 50%from what it was Saturday and 25% lower than Sunday it's sitting at 15% right now..........much mo better.

Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Mon, 07 Jul 1:35 pm (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Mon, 07 Jul 1:20 pm PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
07 Jul 1:20 pm PDT 90 36 15 NW 7G12 OK

And the only convection is up by Big Bear



Sea Surface Temperatures:



Japan Radar:



Neoguri - Radar

GT...I promise this will be my last post on this matter. I remember clearly the comment to which you make reference. You mentioned once how busy school was. Later you said you had no idea why you were being so grumpy (this was on another day). I believe I suggested that perhaps you should take a break from the blog. I also asked if you were having a difficult time with school. Why would I want you to "do bad" in school? I have nothing to gain from that. I have a lot of positives in my life and I only wish that for everyone. Spending (wasting) time wishing someone misfortune just does not compute in my world.

If you still have a problem with me, I would suggest that you place me on ignore but since I post so rarely, it is a moot point.

Quoting 131. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Well this particular blogger has something against me, one time I said something on the blog, and she came out of the woodwork and asked me something about doing bad in school like wishing me bad luck or something. I know that I do not wish people bad luck and I am not saying I'm perfect because nobody is perfect, but what she did there is a pretty low blow. I just ignored the comment and didn't even bother wasting my time in replying. Anyways, what you say is true, an anonymous person that hides behind a wall, so let's move on since we've gone off topic.
GT..I rarely plus people's comments as I feel it was created to separate and create "groups"..I would have been happy with the community ticker if they removed the plus/minus system with the new upgrade..but in all, I wanted to let you know that I plussed your comment anyway because you contribute here in a healthy and fun way..

keep blogging away young sir..
This weather blog really is just hilarious some times. All I can do is shake my head and laugh.
Not even in this conversation, but my opinion/thoughts on this matter, is that i am on this blog to learn/soak in as much about Hurricanes and Weather as possible, as i have been passionate about weather since i was a young boy. I am currently in the Atmospheric Sciences track about to get into my upper class atmospheric classes at my University. I would also like to partake in the chasing of land falling Hurricanes albeit with a safe approach, and perhaps use new technologies such as social media in order to get real time information out on the ground. When i log in to this blog, my personal purpose is to 1) help others in the path of Hurricanes/Tropical systems 2) To get better everyday in the field of Meteorology 3) to learn new things and never stop learning. As long as i can provide a radar, graphic or even a forecast track to someone who may not be aware, including my friends and family in real life, it will be worth it.

Now in regards to the plusing and misusing of comments, i am not offended if i no one likes my comments, i try to share useful unbiased information the majority of the time. Furthermore, i am sure that their are countless people who do visit this blog that are not registered users who actually find the information useful. My best advice to those who are offended or "bothered" by the lack of "applause" (plusses) is to just relax and understand that in reality, this is just a outlet ,not the key to unlocking your full potential. Remember, laugh more, be serious less and you will enjoy life much more.

- FIU StormChaser
Quoting 150. FIUStormChaser:

Not even in this conversation, but my opinion/thoughts on this matter, is that i am on this blog to learn/soak in as much about Hurricanes and Weather as possible, as i have been passionate about weather since i was a young boy. I am currently in the Atmospheric Sciences track about to get into my upper class atmospheric classes at my University. I would also like to partake in the chasing of land falling Hurricanes albeit with a safe approach, and perhaps use new technologies such as social media in order to get real time information out on the ground. When i log in to this blog, my personal purpose is to 1) help others in the path of Hurricanes/Tropical systems 2) To get better everyday in the field of Meteorology 3) to learn new things and never stop learning. As long as i can provide a radar, graphic or even a forecast track to someone who may not be aware, including my friends and family in real life, it will be worth it.

Now in regards to the plusing and misusing of comments, i am not offended if i no one likes my comments, i try to share useful unbiased information the majority of the time. Furthermore, i am sure that their are countless people who do visit this blog that are not registered users who actually find the information useful. My best advice to those who are offended or "bothered" by the lack of "applause" (plusses) is to just relax and understand that in reality, this is just a outlet ,not the key to unlocking your full potential. Remember, laugh more, be serious less and you will enjoy life much more.

- FIU StormChaser


Thank god you added your signature, never woulda known who wrote this :p
Quoting 147. Houstonweathergrl:

GT...I promise this will be my last post on this matter. I remember clearly the comment to which you make reference. You mentioned once how busy school was. Later you said you had no idea why you were being so grumpy (this was on another day). I believe I suggested that perhaps you should take a break from the blog. I also asked if you were having a difficult time with school. Why would I want you to "do bad" in school? I have nothing to gain from that. I have a lot of positives in my life and I only wish that for everyone. Spending (wasting) time wishing someone misfortune just does not compute in my world.

If you still have a problem with me, I would suggest that you place me on ignore but since I post so rarely, it is a moot point.


I think I'll do that. At least I'm not the one boasting about making 6 figures to people I don't even know. That's part of your personal life, so be humble and thankful you have a job. I know you worked really hard for that. And with that said goodbye and have a nice day.
Tornado warning west of Boston in the Harvard, MA, area
Quoting 153. HarryMc:

Tornado warning west of Boston in the Harvard, MA, area


We are dealing with more pressing matters here.
155. FOREX
Is anyone taking the wave at 5-10N 30 W seriously or is it just way too early in the season.

Update video from WestPacWx.
157. FOREX
Quoting 154. VAbeachhurricanes:



We are dealing with more pressing matters here.


LMAO.
I appreciate the weather news from Europe, as we are planning a tour package there starting Wednesday. It looks like we will need rain gear, although I hope the pattern shifts by the end of the week to something calmer. This is a long tour - visiting Germany, Austria, Italy and France.

Quoting 111. barbamz:

Hello friends of turbulent skies! And sympathies to all in the path of Neoguri. I'm glad to see the system weakening a bit.

I must confess nevertheless that in the moment my eyes are glued to European weather maps, as Germany (and adjacent countries) expects freak weather tonight and especially tomorrow in the East and North. Culprit is a deepening chanel of low pressure (named "Michaela") where warm air from the southeast and cool moist air from the Atlantic will mix, causing: excessive rain in tropical amounts, ferocious storms, very large hail, maybe tornados - whatever you want ;-) Serious prewarnings are out, and some weather service utters really bullish words. Moreover, the peak of the threat will happen tomorrow afternoon/evening when soccer-Germany will gather in large crowds to watch the match Germany-Brazil open air, huh ....


Current airmass in Europe (saved pic).


Convective precipitation tomorrow afternoon.


Streamlines and convergence tomorrow afternoon.

Source and many more forecast maps (shear, cape) here, thanks to GFS and Estofex. People with more knowledge than I have, may be interested to have a closer look.

Wet stuff is already developing south of me and heading my way (Mainz near Frankfurt), and I'm very curious whether some of the promised deluge will hit me later on tonight.





Very active real time lightning map.



Outlook from weatheronline.uk for Tuesday
Low pressure deepens and becomes an active feature across central Europe late Monday into Tuesday, with some very heavy falls of rain for western Germany, Switzerland, Austria and eastern parts of France. Heavy rain later moves north toward the Netherlands. There may be flash flooding with 100mm possible in some areas over a couple of days in some parts of central Europe. Heavy thundery showers also extend across much of France, northern Italy, Austria and the Czech Republic.


Quoting 151. VAbeachhurricanes:



Thank god you added your signature, never woulda known who wrote this :p

Whew i'm glad you knew who wrote the comment, I was actually really worried no one would know who wrote it, i was looking for a way to make it all bold and in 72 size font and have it scrolling horizontally across the screen. :p

- Wunderground Member

Not sure if anyone noticed this, and I know it's 360 hours out... but interesting to note the GFS shows a Cape Verde Storm.
why is it that early hurricane seasons seem to be drier than our winters? didnt it used to be the other way around....more SAL?
162. FOREX
Quoting 160. dfwstormwatch:


Not sure if anyone noticed this, and I know it's 360 hours out... but interesting to note the GFS shows a Cape Verde Storm.


I was going to post that graphic but didn't want to upset the blog.
Quoting 155. FOREX:

Is anyone taking the wave at 5-10N 30 W seriously or is it just way too early in the season.


We have seen some early July storms in the MDR. I think the reason why people aren't talking about it is because of dry air and no model support.
Quoting 160. dfwstormwatch:


Not sure if anyone noticed this, and I know it's 360 hours out... but interesting to note the GFS shows a Cape Verde Storm.


Typical GFS. Back in May and early June it insisted in a storm in the NW Caribbean. A model that is 360 hours out should be discounted.
Quoting 154. VAbeachhurricanes:



We are dealing with more pressing matters here.

Exactly. Pointless arguing and bickering is clearly more important than tornadoes. Come on guys!
Quoting 158. oxnardprof:

I appreciate the weather news from Europe, as we are planning a tour package there starting Wednesday. It looks like we will need rain gear, although I hope the pattern shifts by the end of the week to something calmer. This is a long tour - visiting Germany, Austria, Italy and France.




Welcome, have fun! Temps should recover to a summerlike level in Germany over the weekend, but not without some showers.
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:49 PM PDT on July 07, 2014
Clear
96 °F / 35.6 °C
Clear
Humidity: 20%
Dew Point: 48 °F / 9 °C
Wind: 2 mph / 3.2 km/h / 0.9 m/s Variable
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph / 16.1 km/h
Pressure: 29.82 in / 1010 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 93 °F / 34 °C
3rd Day in a row, Low=70.0F, High=94.7F...
Stuck in a Time Loop, or is it Ground Hog Day.
Quoting 154. VAbeachhurricanes:



We are dealing with more pressing matters here.

Yeah, I don't know what to have for dinner.
169. VR46L
Quoting 164. jrweatherman:



Typical GFS. Back in May and early June it insisted in a storm in the NW Caribbean. A model that is 360 hours out should be discounted.


Buzz Kill :p

Only kidding ! Still think they are interesting to watch in your predicable thriller kind of way ... Gets more interesting when the GFS moves the timeline closer ....
Quoting 164. jrweatherman:



Typical GFS. Back in May and early June it insisted in a storm in the NW Caribbean. A model that is 360 hours out should be discounted.

Although there is a difference between the GFS during the rainy season and the GFS with Cape Verde waves...GFS has better accuracy when it comes to waves coming off of Africa than waves in the Caribbean.
Looks like the tornado warning in MA expired.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Has a Storm ever made it from the eastern pacific all the way across to affect a country in the western pacific?


No. Hurricane/Typhoon John in 1994 came closest.
Quoting 168. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, I don't know what to have for dinner.


I'd go with the Grilled Salmon with a Rice Pilaf and a side order of WU Crow. That's a delicious choice, and healthy as well.
Convection is improving in Neoguri as the racoon dog howls at the dawn.
Just a bit of follow-up to Arthur. As the storm was making landfall in NC, someone pointed out that in a radar image he/she should see signals of birds trapped within the eyewall. There was then a bit of discussion about how birds can get trapped this way and are forced to fly long distances until the eye dissipates.
Yesterday, 1 day post-Arthur, I noticed a small flock of seabirds, maybe 2 dozen individuals, standing in the parking lot of a nearby gas station. I had never seen this type of bird before, so I referred to my bird book. They are Franklin's gulls and they don't normally live here: "Franklin's is casual or accidental on Atlantic Coast." According to the map they have been seen occasionally in Mass. and Maine. Also, the birds showed some strange behaviors, not reacting much to people or cars, as if they were exhausted or disoriented. Most are gone today. Thought this might be of interest.
Has anyone noticed that area of convection in the Bahamas?


Quoting 175. bluenosedave:

Just a bit of follow-up to Arthur. As the storm was making landfall in NC, someone pointed out that in a radar image he/she should see signals of birds trapped within the eyewall. There was then a bit of discussion about how birds can get trapped this way and are forced to fly long distances until the eye dissipates.
Yesterday, 1 day post-Arthur, I noticed a small flock of seabirds, maybe 2 dozen individuals, standing in the parking lot of a nearby gas station. I had never seen this type of bird before, so I referred to my bird book. They are Franklin's gulls and they don't normally live here: "Franklin's is casual or accidental on Atlantic Coast." According to the map they have been seen occasionally in Mass. and Maine. Also, the birds showed some strange behaviors, not reacting much to people or cars, as if they were exhausted or disoriented. Most are gone today. Thought this might be of interest.


Has the cleanup of the damage begun in Nova Scotia?
I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure this meets the criteria for a tropical storm. :)



Quoting 173. FIUStormChaser:



I'd go with the Grilled Salmon with a Rice Pilaf and a side order of WU Crow. That's a delicious choice, and healthy as well.


Seafood? Blah.

Yes, I live in coastal North Carolina and hate seafood. Don't judge me!
Quoting 174. DonnieBwkGA:

Convection is improving in Neoguri as the racoon dog howls at the dawn.


Sorry, Donnie, as I've learned when checking out "Neoguri" earlier: a raccoon dog won't howl :-)

Wiki: Vocalisations
They do not bark like foxes, uttering instead a growl, followed by a long-drawn melancholy whine. Captive specimens have been known to utter daily a very different kind of sound when hungry, described as a sort of mewing plaint. Males fighting for females will yelp and growl. Japanese raccoon dogs produce sounds higher in pitch than those of domestic dogs, and sound similar to cats.

Maybe they should abstain from this name for typhoons further on, lol.
Quoting barbamz:

Update video from WestPacWx.

Dang. There are storm chasers on a tiny island off Okinawa? Those guys will show up anywhere. :-) Have you seen any of this storm chasing recreation in Germany?
I'm sure this has already been posted, but I thought it was pretty cool. I saw the story on the Today Show this morning.



A Canadian couple caught in front of a tornado while posing for their wedding photos stayed calm in the face of the storm, leading to a series of stunning images.

Photographer Colleen Niska captured breathtaking photos of the happy couple in the province of Saskatchewn, all while a tornado appears to be just up the road.

As dramatic as the pics are, Niska said neither she nor the bride and groom were fearful during the photo shoot.

Read the complete story on Today.com.
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Has anyone noticed that area of convection in the Bahamas?



It's one of several ULL's that are over the Atlantic currently. Looks like they will continue to wander around for the next couple of days before the supporting front is finally pushed east by the approaching cold front attached to an unusually deep low over Canada. There's no model support for any development. I notice our 0% yellow "X" is gone on the 2:00 update.
Awwww! OK so the thunder of Neoguri growls and the winds whine at the dawn :)
175-bluenosedave, we have a lot of those gulls here. S coast of NC. We didn't get the eye wall. Just eastern side. Hadn't really read all the info on them --always called them 'laughing gulls' here;-) Thanks for sharing---I love reading others accounts Hope your recovery is going well and of short duration.
Quoting 177. FIUStormChaser:



Has the cleanup of the damage begun in Nova Scotia?

Oh, yeah. This afternoon it sounded like I was living in a lumber camp. Still about 30,000 without power, last I heard. Also, by all reports New Brunswick got hit harder than Nova Scotia.
Quoting 180. sar2401:


Dang. There are storm chasers on a tiny island off Okinawa? Those guys will show up anywhere. :-) Have you seen any of this storm chasing recreation in Germany?


Germany as a recreation center for displaced storm chasers, lol? Have you forgotten about yesterday's dust storm in my town, Sar? Here's a new video for you about the end of this technofestival, watch it til the end as it's short and enjoy.

BTW today I was asked to join a group of local stormchasers in Germany via Whatsapp. Unfortunately I'm still not that phone savvy to do so. I'll have to modernize my communication skills, I guess :-)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I'm sure this has already been posted, but I thought it was pretty cool. I saw the story on the Today Show this morning.



A Canadian couple caught in front of a tornado while posing for their wedding photos stayed calm in the face of the storm, leading to a series of stunning images.

Photographer Colleen Niska captured breathtaking photos of the happy couple in the province of Saskatchewn, all while a tornado appears to be just up the road.

As dramatic as the pics are, Niska said neither she nor the bride and groom were fearful during the photo shoot.

Read the complete story on Today.com.

Looks like the end of a whirlwind courtship. :-)
Quoting barbamz:


Germany as a recreation center for displaced storm chasers, lol? Have you forgotten about yesterdays dust storm in my town, Sar? Here's a new video for you about the end of this technofestival, enjoy.

BTW today I was asked to join a group of local stormchasers in Germany via Whatsapp. Unfortunately I'm still not that phone savvy to do so. I'll have to modernize my communication skills, I guess :-)

So there really are stormchasers in Germany? I just didn't know if that mania had reached your neck of the woods yet. I don't think the people in the videos are stormchasers though. More like storm-runners. :-)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure this meets the criteria for a tropical storm. :)




Seafood? Blah.

Yes, I live in coastal North Carolina and hate seafood. Don't judge me!

It does have that Swiss cheese kind of look.
Quoting 124. Envoirment:



Ye, I don't get the dry air issue looking at the WV:



Looks pretty wet to me.


Well, first of all, water vapor satellite only looks at the upper levels, and second, when we refer to dry air in the circulation of a tropical cyclone, rarely is it actually any where remotely dry in terms of enough moisture for strong thunderstorms. What causes problems is often a layer of air relatively drier than the rest of the airmass. This often occurs even with very moist tropical airmasses.

The reason why only small amounts of relatively drier air causes problems in tropical systems, is that the warm core process, the by which latent heat is released, is heavily depended on nearly the entire troposphere being at least close to saturation, and even a small layer of dry air can disrupt this "heat engine". Otherwise any area of lower RH can cause enough evaporative cooling to be destructive to the storm. As I said, this can easily occur with a very moist airmass that is full of moisture as long as layer of lower RH is sandwiched in somewhere. This is easier to happen with larger cyclones. Its very odd though to see it with a strong and well organized tropical cyclone. Typically a stronger cyclone is very effective at fighting off dry air unless its structure and organization is disrupted by shear or cooler water.

In this case, low shear and very warm water temps are supportive of a rapid rebound in intensification if it can mix out the drier air layer, which its trying to do now.
Quoting 176. FIUStormChaser:

Has anyone noticed that area of convection in the Bahamas?





Yup, -- and also that in the far west GOM.
Reid Wiseman ‏@astro_reid 42s
The interesting shaped #eye of super #TyphoonNeoguri – 2155 GMT, 7 July

Quoting 188. sar2401:


So there really are stormchasers in Germany? I just didn't know if that mania had reached your neck of the woods yet. I don't think the people in the videos are stormchasers though. More like storm-runners. :-)


Sar, there are storm chasers everywhere now! A lot of those stunning pictures from European storms on SevereWeatherEurope are from passionate and skilled storm chasers. Here is one from yesterday, and yes, this is Germany:


Dustin Foppe reports this spectacular shelf cloud over Rheine, Germany (Nordrhein-Westfalen, NW Germany) yesterday late evening. Thank you Dusting for the report and impressive photo!
Photo: St.G. Fotografie - https://www.facebook.com/St.G.Fotografie?fref=phot o
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure this meets the criteria for a tropical storm. :)




Seafood? Blah.

Yes, I live in coastal North Carolina and hate seafood. Don't judge me!


I'm sure there are people that live in Iowa who hate corn.
Quoting 178. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure this meets the criteria for a tropical storm. :)



ASCAT got a decent pass on it not too long ago:



Was a bit disorganised, but showed 30-35kt wind barbs. Since then it's fired off that huge convective burst and has likely organised even more. Quite a nice little system.
Soon we'll have Fausto.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reid Wiseman ‏@astro_reid 42s
The interesting shaped #eye of super #TyphoonNeoguri – 2155 GMT, 7 July


Looks like a dry air channel is getting into the eye. That may be one reason we are seeing the relative disorganization. I don't remember eyewall replacement having that look but we rarely get to see an from that angle.
198. SLU
You be the judge.









199. silas
Wow, so much more convection than just a couple hours ago.

Quoting barbamz:


Sar, there are storm chasers everywhere now! A lot of those stunning pictures from European storms on SevereWeatherEurope are from passionate and skilled storm chasers. Here is one from yesterday, and yes, this is Germany:


Dustin Foppe reports this spectacular shelf cloud over Rheine, Germany (Nordrhein-Westfalen, NW Germany) yesterday late evening. Thank you Dusting for the report and impressive photo!
Photo: St.G. Fotografie - https://www.facebook.com/St.G.Fotografie?fref=phot o

I guess so. For some reason, I just never thought of them in Germany, but it is a big country. Fabulous picture. I'm sure it has nothing to do with my lack of talent, but I never get a photo to come out like that. Even if I put it into Photoshop, it wouldn't look that good.
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014
330 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014

...SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 330 PM PDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 120.1W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
A storm named for Dr. Faust :)
Quoting pablosyn:
Soon we'll have Fausto.


Looks like we already do.
That area over the Southern Bahamas is right on the edge of the ULL Tutt Cell to it's East at the 250 mb level (below). The convective burst is being enhanced by the proximity; it would have to persist for another 12-24 hours before going on NHC's radar. Just my opinion.
Quoting bluenosedave:

Oh, yeah. This afternoon it sounded like I was living in a lumber camp. Still about 30,000 without power, last I heard. Also, by all reports New Brunswick got hit harder than Nova Scotia.

At least the price of firewood should be coming way down. :-) Glad to hear you got through the storm OK.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Looks like we already do.

But don't say fish storm...:-)

T.S Fausto no threat to land in the next 5 days, though it does start to approach Hawaii with winds of 65 MPH at day 5, we'll see if gets close to Hawaii.
Here is a cool blurb from the Sun Sentinel a few weeks ago; hopefully NHC will let us know if/when they use these this year during active storms; Arthur would have been a good one to put them to the test:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hurricane Research Division will experiment with flying drones into active hurricanes this season in order to better research the mammoth storms.

The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported this week that the “Coyote” drones were developed in the wake of Hurricane Sandy and will be launched into the eye of tropical weather systems to gauge barometric pressure changes.

“It’s an innovative way to measure the atmosphere,” Jason Dunion, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hurricane Research Division in Miami, told the newspaper.

The drones will also study how warm water from the ocean transfers to hurricanes in order to fuel them,according to the Associated Press.

The drones will be dropped from Hurricane Hunter aircraft – Lockheed WC-130J fixed wing planes – into the eyes of storms. The program will cost $1.25 million, the AP reported, and will consist of about five 3-foot-long, 7-pound drones.

Neoguri intensifying once again:

Quoting 211. Envoirment:

Neoguri intensifying once again:




And became slow
The sun is up in Okinawa, and I have found a live feed.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/typhoon-neoguri-201 4-chatan-cho-okinawa-jaapan
Quoting 199. silas:

Wow, so much more convection than just a couple hours ago.




very odd storm
Tropical Storm Fausto - my new graphic

Quoting 214. nwobilderburg:



very odd storm


Yeah I saw it. On JSL it was noticeably weaker a few hours ago, and now it's like the red doughnut again.
Evening all....

Quoting 205. weathermanwannabe:

That area over the Southern Bahamas is right on the edge of the ULL Tutt Cell to it's East at the 250 mb level (below). The convective burst is being enhanced by the proximity; it would have to persist for another 12-24 hours before going on NHC's radar. Just my opinion.

NHC / TAFB was saying at 2 p.m. that the unsettled wx in our area was being caused by the ULL.... actually pretty typical for June - July; a large portion of any rain falling in the early part of the season is caused by some upper level feature, sometimes enhanced by a passing Twave. Going into Aug - Sep the relationship reverses.
Quoting 212. pablosyn:



And became slow
It's turning.
Quoting 210. weathermanwannabe:

Here is a cool blurb from the Sun Sentinel a few weeks ago; hopefully NHC will let us know if/when they use these this year during active storms; Arthur would have been a good one to put them to the test:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hurricane Research Division will experiment with flying drones into active hurricanes this season in order to better research the mammoth storms.

The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported this week that the “Coyote” drones were developed in the wake of Hurricane Sandy and will be launched into the eye of tropical weather systems to gauge barometric pressure changes.

“It’s an innovative way to measure the atmosphere,” Jason Dunion, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hurricane Research Division in Miami, told the newspaper.

The drones will also study how warm water from the ocean transfers to hurricanes in order to fuel them,according to the Associated Press.

The drones will be dropped from Hurricane Hunter aircraft – Lockheed WC-130J fixed wing planes – into the eyes of storms. The program will cost $1.25 million, the AP reported, and will consist of about five 3-foot-long, 7-pound drones.



awesome.. There are room for more of them. On the heat transfer. I often wondered how so much energy was getting transferred.. and then I witnessed Wilma on Indian River lagoon. I was astounded that any air breathing marine animal could breath at all. The wind creates waves and RIPS the tops off.. you "white out" there is so much water drug into the air. All that warm water blown into particles, turned into aerosol that sheds heat efficiently. LOVE this stuff.


WIND SHEAR IN THE SOUTHEAST IS GOING DOWN TO 5 TO 10
221. FOREX
Quoting 220. hurricanes2018:



WIND SHEAR IN THE SOUTHEAST IS GOING DOWN TO 5 TO 10


I know I am wishcasting, but I am monitoring the wave at 30W.
Quoting 221. FOREX:



I know I am wishcasting, but I am monitoring the wave at 30W.
30w eh ?
Quoting CycloneOz:
The sun is up in Okinawa, and I have found a live feed.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/typhoon-neoguri-201 4-chatan-cho-okinawa-jaapan

Howdy Oz. Cam is a little jumpy but it looks like they must still have power and internet. The small trees are whipping around a bit but it doesn't look too bad right now. Watch that blue sign on the right. If it stays there, the impact won't be too bad. :-)
wow 40% to Tropical Storm FAUSTO in 12 hours..
225. FOREX
Quoting 222. Climate175:

30w eh ?


lol. No model support, but am hopeful anyway.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N29W TO 03N30W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A
MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NEAR 07N30W. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION INTACT
SINCE LEAVING WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 31W-34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 6N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N45W TO 03N47W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 AND
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SURROUNDING THE WAVE THAT
CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 20N83W TO
10N83W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH WITH ENHANCED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS S OF 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N95W TO 15N96W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AND ON THE SUNY-
ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS AT 700 MB DEPICTS THE WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
What happened to ....Neoguri is too big; too much dry air being entrained; it's breaking up??????


These two men have been working hard the last few shifts.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Here is a cool blurb from the Sun Sentinel a few weeks ago; hopefully NHC will let us know if/when they use these this year during active storms; Arthur would have been a good one to put them to the test:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hurricane Research Division will experiment with flying drones into active hurricanes this season in order to better research the mammoth storms.

The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported this week that the “Coyote” drones were developed in the wake of Hurricane Sandy and will be launched into the eye of tropical weather systems to gauge barometric pressure changes.

“It’s an innovative way to measure the atmosphere,” Jason Dunion, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hurricane Research Division in Miami, told the newspaper.

The drones will also study how warm water from the ocean transfers to hurricanes in order to fuel them,according to the Associated Press.

The drones will be dropped from Hurricane Hunter aircraft – Lockheed WC-130J fixed wing planes – into the eyes of storms. The program will cost $1.25 million, the AP reported, and will consist of about five 3-foot-long, 7-pound drones.


Those little Coyote drones are ideal for the P-3's since they can be launched from the sonobouy tubes on the aircraft. Not much of a payload but it's a good start.
Quoting 223. sar2401:


Howdy Oz. Cam is a little jumpy but it looks like they must still have power and internet. The small trees are whipping around a bit but it doesn't look too bad right now. Watch that blue sign on the right. If it stays there, the impact won't be too bad. :-)


Mine says off air when i click the link
Quoting FOREX:


I know I am wishcasting, but I am monitoring the wave at 30W.

It looks good at it just comes on this satellite view. Unfortunately for tropical storm enthusiasts, it has this in front of it...


Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Mine says off air when i click the link

He's been changing locations and adjusting the cam. Just a guy with his web cam clamped to a balcony, so we can expect it to be up and down.
233. JRRP
Quoting SLU:


Of course it's not gonna happen but that's enough to keep us on our toes by reminding us what time of year it is.

yeah i know jejeje
Quoting Grothar:
What happened to ....Neoguri is too big; too much dry air being entrained; it's breaking up??????



Did anyone say such things? :-)

Keep watching, OM.
Quoting 233. JRRP:


yeah i know jejeje
That would be lol.
236. JLPR2
Refusing to completely fade away, some little cells of convection firing ahead of it in the dry air (positive signal), but even if it managed to fight off the dry air, the windshear would get it.

Quoting 235. Climate175:

That would be lol.
Unless u r from PR.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Neoguri ...

240. FOREX
Quoting 236. JLPR2:

Refusing to completely fade away, some little cells of convection firing ahead of it in the dry air (positive signal), but even if it managed to fight off the dry air, the windshear would get it.




Wish crusher!!!!
Quoting 236. JLPR2:

Refusing to completely fade away, some little cells of convection firing ahead of it in the dry air (positive signal), but even if it managed to fight off the dry air, the windshear would get it.


Really, I just want it to last long enough to give Caribboy a bit of a thrill..... can't even realistically expect an invest, though, based on current conditions.
Quoting 213. CycloneOz:

The sun is up in Okinawa, and I have found a live feed.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/typhoon-neoguri-201 4-chatan-cho-okinawa-jaapan


Thanks for the cam!

Does anyone have a cam for Kumejima? Been looking for one for ages. It looks like it'll be the most affected island as Neoguri peaks in intensity. It looks like it could even take a direct hit from Neoguri's eyewall.
Quoting 239. GeoffreyWPB:

Neoguri ...


Hmmm.... just when one could hope things would go a wee bit easier for Okinawa...
Quoting 241. BahaHurican:

Really, I just want it to last long enough to give Caribboy a bit of a thrill..... can't even realistically expect an invest, though, based on current conditions.
A gift to Caribboy!
245. JLPR2
Quoting 240. FOREX:



Wish crusher!!!!


Just saying it like I see it, I wouldn't mind a sloppy minimal TS/TD from it moving slowly over the E. Carb, I know CaribBoy would welcome the rain and so would I. XD
Still has some time to kick off more convection.
247. FOREX
Quoting 246. Climate175:

Still has some time to kick off more convection.


Now that I see the dry air ahead of it I'm a bit less optimistic.
Neoguri's eyewall is looking better this afternoon. Dry air will remain an issue due to its large size. Only slight strengthening is likely as conditions for the storm begin to become unfavorable.

Quoting 247. FOREX:



Now that I see the dry air ahead of it I'm a bit less optimistic.
Chance of development is 0%
Am ready for fall and winter personally, ready for some more snow. Days until meteorological fall: 56 days Days until astronomical fall: 77 days
Quoting 246. Climate175:


Still has some time to kick off more convection.
Seems like it's in a little "pocket" of less dusty air, which may be why it's lasting as long as it is.... would be way cool if this defied the odds and actually makes something of itself... lol
Kumejima forecast to get sustained winds of 89kts with 112kt gusts and waves of up to 17.2m high and air pressure of 957 mb.

Link

Hopefully Neogrui doesn't take a wobble eastward and makes a direct landfall/brush there.
8 pm disco.....

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N29W TO 03N30W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A
MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NEAR 07N30W. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION INTACT
SINCE LEAVING WEST AFRICA
. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 31W-34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 6N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N45W TO 03N47W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 AND
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SURROUNDING THE WAVE THAT
CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 20N83W TO
10N83W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH WITH ENHANCED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS S OF 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N95W TO 15N96W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AND ON THE SUNY-
ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS AT 700 MB DEPICTS THE WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

Despite the relatively low chances, this Twave is currently the best game in the ATL....
Quoting 251. BahaHurican:

Seems like it's in a little "pocket" of less dusty air, which may be why it's lasting as long as it is.... would be way cool if this defied the odds and actually makes something of itself... lol
And became this LOL!!!!!!!!!!!! No.
Quoting 254. Climate175:

And became this LOL!!!!!!!!!!!! No.
LOL.... I'd settle for 92L.... or would we be up to 93L?
92% Neoguri reaches CAT 5. Just my thought.
I'm thinkin' we should naming African dust events, lets start building some criteria by which to name them...
Quoting 257. Jedkins01:

I'm thinkin' we should naming African dust events, lets start building some criteria by which to name them...


Dry
Japan Radar:



First time Neoguri has been showing 50mm/hr rain rates in the eyewall today on radar. Kumejima is the island in the top right just below that big blob of yellow/orange.
Quoting 251. BahaHurican:

Seems like it's in a little "pocket" of less dusty air, which may be why it's lasting as long as it is.... would be way cool if this defied the odds and actually makes something of itself... lol
nothing will survive that SAL... I just hope on the long range GFS, it shows that A/B high weaken to we could get some sea level pressures to lower.. mjo looking unfavorable the next 3 weeks. by august however, things should pick up
Quoting 258. VAbeachhurricanes:



Dry

Dusty.
Quoting 227. Grothar:

What happened to ....Neoguri is too big; too much dry air being entrained; it's breaking up??????




Quoting CycloneOz:
The sun is up in Okinawa, and I have found a live feed.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/typhoon-neoguri-201 4-chatan-cho-okinawa-jaapan
Utility lines appear to strain in gusts. Amazing, the amount of traffic driving through.
Impressive Stream. Thanks.
265. txjac
Quoting 263. DonnieBwkGA:

Sixth grader credited with scientific breakthrough on lionfish


Awesome! Great story. We need to nurture minds like this!
Repost from the last blog, as the new one came just before I posted:

Quoting 413. wunderweatherman123:

anybody want to explain the low vertical instability the last 5 seasons? I have no explanation for why it's so low and even if we get el nino later, the atmosphere will take time before it becomes el nino like. hence, this season will not be below average as some people think. if only the SAL could just go away.....

I still think, as I said some time ago on here, that the errant polar jet stream is contributing a lot of that. The cold air that gets pulled deep South by the deep meanders in the polar jet is dry air, which gets drier as it warms up over the oceans. The reduced temperature differentials also reduce the gradients. The atmospheric stability that should result is what we've been seeing. In a warming world all those effects will probably increase in strength, and I'll be expecting the Atlantic hurricane season to be adversely (for the storm chasers) affected.
Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm thinkin' we should naming African dust events, lets start building some criteria by which to name them...

Here's a criterion. They should all be named after desert movies like Adventure in Sahara, Ali Baba Bound, Arabian Tights, Beau Geste, Beau Geste, Beau Geste, The Last Remake of Beau Geste, Beau Geste, Beau Hunks, Beau Ideal, Beau Sabreur, Beau Travail, Captain Gallant of the Foreign Legion and so on. Thanks to Wikipedia. [fixed a typo, misspelled a Beau Geste, added italics]
Why we don't have anymore the Wind Speed Probabilities in table form, like last years? : / #FAUSTO
Surprise Tropical Storm Fausto, anyone?



Totally didn't see this coming/10.
270. FOREX
Quoting 267. bappit:


Here's a criterion. They should all be named after desert movies like Adventure in Sahara, Ali Baba Bound, Arabian Tights, Beau Geste, Beau Geste, Geau Geste, The Last Remake of Beau Geste, Beau Geste, Beau Hunks, Beau Ideal, Beau Sabreur, Beau Travail, Captain Gallant of the Foreign Legion and so on. Thanks to Wikipedia.


Dust in the Wind, Another one Bites the Dust, Dust Devil, Dusty Rhodes
Quoting 266. CaneFreeCR:

Repost from the last blog, as the new one came just before I posted:

Quoting 413. wunderweatherman123:

anybody want to explain the low vertical instability the last 5 seasons? I have no explanation for why it's so low and even if we get el nino later, the atmosphere will take time before it becomes el nino like. hence, this season will not be below average as some people think. if only the SAL could just go away.....

I still think, as I said some time ago on here, that the errant polar jet stream is contributing a lot of that. The cold air that gets pulled deep South by the deep meanders in the polar jet is dry air, which gets drier as it warms up over the oceans. The reduced temperature differentials also reduce the gradients. The atmospheric stability that should result is what we've been seeing. In a warming world all those effects will probably increase in strength, and I'll be expecting the Atlantic hurricane season to be adversely (for the storm chasers) affected.



While there's nothing wrong with a simple hypothesis or two, it's a little premature to be making any sort of confident claim on the effects of AGW on Atlantic hurricane activity or lack thereof.
Quoting FOREX:


Dust in the Wind, Another one Bites the Dust, Dust Devil, Dusty Rhodes

Not names of movies about the Sahara. We have to maintain standards like TWC does.
Tropical Storm Fausto is here!
The storm is producing very cold and intense convection over it's well-defined center, and continues to slowly organize. Gradual strengthening is anticipated as conditions remain favorable as it moves west then west-northwestward. Currently, the overall structure and organization of Fausto gives me a good feeling that this storm has the potential to become a minor hurricane before beginning to weaken in three or four days.
Quoting 273. TylerStanfield:

Tropical Storm Fausto is here!
The storm is producing very cold and intense convection over it's well-defined center, and continues to slowly organize. Gradual strengthening is anticipated as conditions remain favorable as it moves west then west-northwestward. Currently, the overall structure and organization of Fausto gives me a good feeling that this storm has the potential to become a minor hurricane before beginning to weaken in three or four days.




I'm rooting for it to become a major hurricane. It's been on my list for intense Pacific hurricane since earlier this year.
Quoting 271. KoritheMan:



While there's nothing wrong with a simple hypothesis or two, it's a little premature to be making any sort of confident claim on the effects of AGW on Atlantic hurricane activity or lack thereof.
kori its danny, wanna hear your thoughts on this season, what you expect in august, september
Quoting 269. KoritheMan:

Surprise Tropical Storm Fausto, anyone?



Totally didn't see this coming/10.


I really was very surprised .. But then when the system was still only a 20% chance I realized that we would have a rapid development ... Upon reaching 40% chance I was already seeing TD 6-E and then with that explosion convection in the center I have ever suspected it was more than a TD
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N29W TO 03N30W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A
MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NEAR 07N30W. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION INTACT
SINCE LEAVING WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 31W-34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 6N.

I guess the national hurricane center is watching it!!
Neoguri WV Loop

280. FOREX
Quoting 278. hurricanes2018:

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N29W TO 03N30W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A
MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NEAR 07N30W. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION INTACT
SINCE LEAVING WEST AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 31W-34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 6N.

I guess the national hurricane center is watching it!!


Well, that makes maybe four of us.
Quoting 276. wunderweatherman123:

kori its danny, wanna hear your thoughts on this season, what you expect in august, september


I think that we'll avoid a bonafide El Nino, as Cody said the other day. However, there is still a decent oceanic warming signal characteristic of at least a warm ENSO. I find it difficult to believe the atmosphere will not eventually respond. Timing that is difficult, however.

Who knows, it might have already responded. The mid-oceanic trough has been even stronger than last year, slinging relentless shear through the Caribbean.
Quoting 275. KoritheMan:



I'm rooting for it to become a major hurricane. It's been on my list for intense Pacific hurricane since earlier this year.

The 18z HWRF says that Fausto will peak at 75-85 knots. I find that pretty reasonable.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
I guess the national hurricane center is watching it!!
"They see you when you're sleepin'. They know when you're awake."
Quoting 281. KoritheMan:



I think that we'll avoid a bonafide El Nino, as Cody said the other day. However, there is still a decent oceanic warming signal characteristic of at least a warm ENSO. I find it difficult to believe the atmosphere will not eventually respond. Timing that is difficult, however.

Who knows, it might have already responded. The mid-oceanic trough has been even stronger than last year, slinging relentless shear through the Caribbean.
not too worried about caribbean as it is mostly hostile their in July. I'm worried about the sea level pressures and if they will be neutral during the peak. i dont think el ninos signal will be felt until october so with the cool MDR, best hope is for the SAL to clear away. gulf of guniea cool.. stronger Tropical Waves too


No EL NINO
Quoting 275. KoritheMan:



I'm rooting for it to become a major hurricane. It's been on my list for intense Pacific hurricane since earlier this year.


Rapid Intensification maybe? I starting reminds Felicia in 2009. The circulation of Fausto is pretty
Quoting 245. JLPR2:



Just saying it like I see it, I wouldn't mind a sloppy minimal TS/TD from it moving slowly over the E. Carb, I know CaribBoy would welcome the rain and so would I. XD


xD definitely!
Quoting indianrivguy:


awesome.. There are room for more of them. On the heat transfer. I often wondered how so much energy was getting transferred.. and then I witnessed Wilma on Indian River lagoon. I was astounded that any air breathing marine animal could breath at all. The wind creates waves and RIPS the tops off.. you "white out" there is so much water drug into the air. All that warm water blown into particles, turned into aerosol that sheds heat efficiently. LOVE this stuff.
The surface area is enormous. Water evaporates using internal energy of the water. It releases that energy when it condenses and/or freezes.
I think in that point, Neoguri was a category 5 typhoon...at least for 6 hours...

Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm thinkin' we should naming African dust events, lets start building some criteria by which to name them...

Dread….
Fausto could certainly get stronger than forecast:

Don't watch if you don't like bad words...

Quoting 271. KoritheMan:



While there's nothing wrong with a simple hypothesis or two, it's a little premature to be making any sort of confident claim on the effects of AGW on Atlantic hurricane activity or lack thereof.
Sorry - "confident claim on the effects of AGW"? You said it, not me -- look again.
Quoting 292. Pallis1:

Yes Naga, it is the same old saga. Why does not the dry air surrounding the storm extinguish it? Answer : the storm is sucking all moisture from all levels. That is the reason for the dry air surrounding it. Then chickens fly from island to island.


You can sort of see it here, but Neoguri swallowed a big chunk of dry* air a few days back and it's been cycling within the circulation ever since.



*dry relative to WPac norms.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Don't watch if you don't like bad words...


I hope the little tubby in the red at least went to jail....
Quoting 294. CaneFreeCR:

Sorry - "confident claim on the effects of AGW"? You said it, not me -- look again.


Your post just came off that way to me. Perhaps because your usage of the word "probably".

At any rate, I have bigger things to kvetch about. I meant no harm. :)
Quoting 279. Patrap:

Neoguri WV Loop


Thanks for the loop Pat, as always. Looks creepy, and once it hits the jet, it's off and running.
Quoting 293. GeoffreyWPB:

Don't watch if you don't like bad words...




You can see their puny little brains trying to think of some excuse. That is hilarious.
Quoting 293. GeoffreyWPB:

Don't watch if you don't like bad words...




I only refrain from using "bad words" because I have rules to follow. See my Facebook. :)
Quoting 299. VAbeachhurricanes:



You can see their puny little brains trying to think of some excuse. That is hilarious.


Gave me a good laugh!
Quoting 300. KoritheMan:



I only refrain from using "bad words" because I have rules to follow. See my Facebook. :)


I follow you Kori :)
303. csmda
Quoting 293. GeoffreyWPB:

Don't watch if you don't like bad words...




People are ridiculous! If it was really a "mistake" they would have been apologetic. If you're that hard up wait till the sun goes down, tons of people just leave anything you can think of all over the beach.
Quoting 293. GeoffreyWPB:

Don't watch if you don't like bad words...


Lol, that was hilarious. Even better here, with the rest of the story.
A low to mid level vortex or 850mb vorticity maximum is associated with the wave near 7n:29w and 10n:30w in the central Atlantic Ocean. Wind shear is a low 5-10 knots, but dry air surrounds the system which is producing moderate to strong convection the past few days. It is quickly moving west at around 15-20 knots. Also an area of disturbed weather over the Bahamas is associated with a newly developing low level maximum at 850mb and shear is around 10 knots from the north. This is an environment conducive to development once convection maintains itself over the area. This area will not move much the next few days, so development is possible. Elsewhere in the tropics no development is likely.
Quoting 293. GeoffreyWPB:

Don't watch if you don't like bad words...



Lmao. If you're gonna try to lie, at least be good at it.
Quoting 304. Astrometeor:



Lol, that was hilarious. Even better here, with the rest of the story.


things have changed .. I have left things on the beach for hours and not have anything bothered let alone someone attempting to steal it .. they should have gone to jail and explained their actions to a Judge !!
Quoting 307. whitewabit:



things have changed .. I have left things on the beach for hours and not have anything bothered let alone someone attempting to steal it .. they should have gone to jail and explained their actions to a Judge !!
I live in ground zero for this kind of perpetrating activity, and my ancestors have for hundreds of years. Only the black and white crackers get it. Old school Cubans know too.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Utility lines appear to strain in gusts. Amazing, the amount of traffic driving through.
Impressive Stream. Thanks.

It's Japan. A little typhoon doesn't keep them from work. Seriously. The salary men know that, unless their place of business blew down or they are missing a body part, they'd better show up at work.


Winds picking up with strong gusts on the live cam.
311. JLPR2


Well, consider me surprised. That's a nice small flare up right there. I would like it to survive, grow and bring some good rains to the Lesser Antilles and PR. Go little TW!
Quoting 304. Astrometeor:



Lol, that was hilarious. Even better here, with the rest of the story.
We need some Judge Judy... no...
Quoting Astrometeor:


Lol, that was hilarious. Even better here, with the rest of the story.

He was much nicer to them than I would have been. He had the two thieves on video lying about the theft. I would have signed a warrant in a heartbeat. Of course, I expect crooks to go to jail, since that's why we built them.
315. FOREX
Grothar, your latest thoughts on the small TWave at around 35W???????????????????????????????????
Quickest blog I've ever wrote--dealing with Fausto. :)

Link
Quoting 306. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Lmao. If you're gonna try to lie, at least be good at it.


^Spoken from experience.
Quoting 315. FOREX:

Grothar, your latest thoughts on the small TWave at around 35W???????????????????????????????????


a lot of SAL maps have been shown, but it depends on what level the dust and dry are in. There are multiple levels of the SAL. Just because it looks monstrously dry, it does not negate that something could develop. It is not very common for CV storm so early, but some have developed. I think this wave is still puny, but it is something to watch. None of the models I know of have even hinted at development yet.
Quoting JLPR2:


Well, consider me surprised. That's a nice small flare up right there. I would like it to survive, grow and bring some good rains to the Lesser Antilles and PR. Go little TW!

Then, if we could make it curve SW, travel up the spine of Florida as a weak TS, go left just a bit so the Panhandle gets some rain, and then have it stall over my house for a day or so. That would be the perfect storm. :-)
Quoting 318. KoritheMan:

I wrote one as well.


I was thinking about it.
322. FOREX
Quoting 319. Grothar:



a lot of SAL maps have been shown, but it depends on what level the dust and dry are in. There are multiple levels of the SAL. Just because it looks monstrously dry, it does not negate that something could develop. It is not very common for CV storm so early, but some have developed. I think this wave is still puny, but it is something to watch. None of the models I know of have even hinted at development yet.



Thank you. I'll monitor it.lol
Quoting Astrometeor:


Lol, that was hilarious. Even better here, with the rest of the story.


Near west side of the eyewall.

Miyakojima, Japan
Quoting 321. Grothar:



I was thinking about it.


Hey Gro, just a few more posts, and your comment count will match your age.
Quoting 312. Climate175:

We need some Judge Judy... no...


Judge Judy would only last 2 minutes on the blog. :) Could you imagine the names she would call us?
News is showing damage in Titusville. in East Central FL. 6" of rain & a possible tornado yesterday. With today's rain they had more than 8 1/2"
Quoting 324. Skyepony:

Near west side of the eyewall.

Miyakojima, Japan



Kumejima to the east side of the eye wall:

Quoting 327. Skyepony:

News is showing damage in Titusville. in East Central FL. 6" of rain & a possible tornado yesterday. With today's rain they had more than 8 1/2"
Yes it was confirmed touchdown. Less than a mile from me. We have gotten 9 inches of rain in the last 3 days.
This one is just a little farther west. Been putting Wundercams viewing Neoguri in my blog.

Ishigakijima, Japan

331. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA.NASA goes-e satellite via Canada.gov
Subject:: POI3b (WeATL, near Bahamas)
Imagery type:: IR (clr-cloud temperatures)
Imagery period:: 201407-07;0015UTC till -08;0115UTC
Sneaked in a last frame, why the jumps.


Quoting 304. Astrometeor:



Lol, that was hilarious. Even better here, with the rest of the story.
Best part is the comments section at the end.... Some people are saying, "poor liddle ole ladies... just got a bit confused, is all.... " ... lol....
Quoting 325. Astrometeor:



Hey Gro, just a few more posts, and your comment count will match your age.


I was going to leave you my first telescope. Now you can forget it.


Quoting 266. CaneFreeCR:

Repost from the last blog, as the new one came just before I posted:

Quoting 413. wunderweatherman123:

anybody want to explain the low vertical instability the last 5 seasons? I have no explanation for why it's so low and even if we get el nino later, the atmosphere will take time before it becomes el nino like. hence, this season will not be below average as some people think. if only the SAL could just go away.....

I still think, as I said some time ago on here, that the errant polar jet stream is contributing a lot of that. The cold air that gets pulled deep South by the deep meanders in the polar jet is dry air, which gets drier as it warms up over the oceans. The reduced temperature differentials also reduce the gradients. The atmospheric stability that should result is what we've been seeing. In a warming world all those effects will probably increase in strength, and I'll be expecting the Atlantic hurricane season to be adversely (for the storm chasers) affected.

This seems to be an active area of research and is far from settled. From Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis, it is noted,
"8.6.3.1 Water Vapour and Lapse Rate : In the planetary boundary layer, humidity is controlled by strong coupling with the surface, and a broad-scale quasi-unchanged RH response is uncontroversial (Wentz and Schabel, 2000; Trenberth et al., 2005; Dai, 2006). Confidence in GCMs water vapour feedback is also relatively high in the extratropics, because large-scale eddies, responsible for much of the moistening throughout the troposphere, are explicitly resolved, and keep much of the atmosphere at a substantial fraction of saturation throughout the year (Stocker et al., 2001). Humidity changes in the tropical middle and upper troposphere, however, are less well understood and have more TOA radiative impact than do other regions of the atmosphere (e.g., Held and Soden, 2000; Colman, 2001). Therefore, much of the research since the TAR has focused on the RH response in the tropics with emphasis on the upper troposphere (see Bony et al., 2006 for a review), and confidence in the humidity response of this region is central to confidence in modelled water vapour feedback.

The humidity distribution within the tropical free troposphere is determined by many factors, including the detrainment of vapour and condensed water from convective systems and the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The relatively dry regions of large-scale descent play a major role in tropical LW cooling, and changes in their area or humidity could potentially have a significant impact on water vapour feedback strength (Pierrehumbert, 1999; Lindzen et al., 2001; Peters and Bretherton, 2005). Given the complexity of processes controlling tropical humidity, however, simple convincing physical arguments about changes under global-scale warming are difficult to sustain, and a combination of modelling and observational studies are needed to assess the reliability of model water vapour feedback.
"

There are more recent interesting discussions on this topic in Isaac Held's blog who works for the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA. One very interesting entry is The moist adiabat and tropical warming. Apparently a lot of the current research is finding that there is evidence against claims of increasing destabilization in the tropics with warming, but I have not seen that question turned around to research the question of increasing tropical atmospheric stabilization.

Alternately there is a recent paper edited by Kerry Emanuel that is of interest in a related topic: Projected changes in African easterly wave intensity and track in response to greenhouse forcing (full paper pre-print, pdf). Their general conclusion is that despite increasing Saharan dust, models are showing that more energetic African easterly waves may play a role in increasing activity in the Atlantic Basin MDR in the future.
oh crap...


Nite everyone. Hope to see you tomorrow.
bad news close up
Quoting 319. Grothar:



a lot of SAL maps have been shown, but it depends on what level the dust and dry are in. There are multiple levels of the SAL. Just because it looks monstrously dry, it does not negate that something could develop. It is not very common for CV storm so early, but some have developed. I think this wave is still puny, but it is something to watch. None of the models I know of have even hinted at development yet.
We've been sitting here feeling kinda wishful-hopeful about it, all the while fully aware of its limited chances.... as for the ULL in my area, this has been about the sweetest spot in the basin for the last couple weeks. l am taking the wait 'n see approach, though.... it just doesn't look as attractive as pre-Arthur did...
This one is NE, with higher winds.. Okinawa, Japan, Japan


The good news is, according to Japan Meteorological Agency, Neoguri will not get down to 910 mb.
Link
The bad news is, it's still a 'very strong (freaking) intensity' at
TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 02:40 UTC, 8 July 2014

Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N2525'(25.4)
E12605'(126.1)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E280km(150NM)
W220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE700km(375NM)
NW440km(240NM)
The only current wind speed observations I can find on Okinawa right now are coming from ASOS at Kadena AFB, showing winds at 53 mph with gusts to 83 mph! When looking at the actual METARS data, however, it shows identical wind readings from 0315 UTC until the most recent reading at 0333 UTC. Before that, it showed even crazier readings, with gusts almost twice the wind speed, up to 90 mph. The altimeter isn't working and then I see the maintenance flag is up, which means something isn't working (altimeter) and/or working correctly (anemometer). It's highly unlikely these readings are correct. You would think that an air base that had enough time to make hundreds of vapid posts on FB would have had enough time to make sure their ASOS was working correctly before a typhoon hit.

Geesh....
Never mind. Snarky comment...
Quoting Chicklit:
The good news is, according to Japan Meteorological Agency, Neoguri will not get down to 910 mb.
Link
The bad news is, it's still a 'very strong (freaking) intensity' at
TY 1408 (NEOGURI)
Issued at 02:40 UTC, 8 July 2014

Scale Large
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N25�25'(25.4�)
E126�05'(126.1�)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E280km(150NM)
W220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE700km(375NM)
NW440km(240NM)

It is down to 125 mph from 150 mph. Still not fun but at least an improvement. It looks like Okinawa is experiencing some strong TS force winds but I can't find anything above that. The weakening trend should continue, so this may turn out not be as catastrophic as first feared.
Quoting 343. sar2401:


Wait. What about the category 5 thing?
OBviously not as important as getting a good night's sleep.... :o)

And speaking of which, I think I'll go seek the shadow land myself.... g'nite sar, chick, kori and all the others out there...
Quoting 343. sar2401:

Never mind. Snarky comment...


'I'm more worried when you aren't making snarky comments


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 402
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1040 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST
OF JOPLIN MISSOURI TO 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VICHY MISSOURI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
348. JRRP
no close circulation
Quoting 338. BahaHurican:

We've been sitting here feeling kinda wishful-hopeful about it, all the while fully aware of its limited chances.... as for the ULL in my area, this has been about the sweetest spot in the basin for the last couple weeks. l am taking the wait 'n see approach, though.... it just doesn't look as attractive as pre-Arthur did... Transport of desert dust mixed with North African industrial ...
www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/6663/2011/acp-11-6663- 2011.pdf
Yeah, there is some man made activity, but it is the same old SAL. The red part is iron oxide. When the combination travels upwards in the dry air it can even block sunlight in rare circumstances, but for the most part, eventually it will form with H2O and fall to Sea/Earth. A condensed patch of it could fall quickly given the right humidity to temperature ratio. Upper air temps are harder to see sometimes. It is not that the particles are lighter than air, but that the desert is so huge as to create an atmosphere crossing over the Atlantic. It is not your time yet.
Quoting JRRP:
no close circulation
where are you referring to.
Well, since Kori and Cody have posted twin blogs, I have decided to start (key word is start) my next blog. Don't worry guys, it'll be weather related. Sorta.

Edit: I mean the next blog after my probable one reviewing the threat for severe weather for Tennessee.
352. vis0
Credit:: NOAA/NASA presented via CANADA.gov
Subject:: POI4 in the mid Atlantic/CnATL (see video thumb/cover, turquoise ring is over POI4)
Imagery area:: Americas disk (@edge are Mid Pacific to the West, Western Africa to the East)
Imagery Type:: Simple IR (This cloured IR is not a NOAA/NASA product, it uses my filters)
Imagery period:: 201407-06,0245 till -08;0245

353. JRRP
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
where are you referring to.

354. JLPR2
Quoting 348. JRRP:

no close circulation



It didn't hit the TW completely, just the east side, but that doesn't change the fact that yep, there is no closed circulation.

Quoting JRRP:

okay, and we need that forming.
356. JRRP
Quoting JLPR2:


It didn't hit the TW completely, just the east side, but that doesn't change the fact that yep, there is no closed circulation.


and still look very impressive
Neoguri - Loop Radar


World Highest Temperature for July 7
The world's highest temperature for July 7 was 120 degrees and occurred at Mitribah, Kuwait right next to making the new star wars movie!!
Quoting 270. FOREX:



Dust in the Wind, Another one Bites the Dust, Dust Devil, Dusty Rhodes

Dust mouse
Dust bunny
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


'I'm more worried when you aren't making snarky comments

LOL. Believe it or not, I try not get too snarky. The edit feature is a good thing sometimes.
Quoting BahaHurican:

And speaking of which, I think I'll go seek the shadow land myself.... g'nite sar, chick, kori and all the others out there...

GN, Baha. Hope you keep getting some rain. It would sure be nice if you could nudge something up my way...
That's Okinawa. Looks like this live stream is coming from the west side of the island.
Terra pass a little earlier.


Quoting nonblanche:

Dust mouse
Dust bunny
Dust My Broom...



Quoting Skyepony:
Terra pass a little earlier.

Looks like Kadena dodges a bullet.
Currently another MCS working its way through the center of the country:



Storm reports:



Good night blog.
Quoting Skyepony:
That's Okinawa. Looks like this live stream is coming from the west side of the island.
Been watching that stream off and on for several hours. Rather intense gusts filled with spray but taxis have not stopped driving through. Guess one could storm chase there in a taxi. :)



Quoting 362. Skyepony:

That's Okinawa. Looks like this live stream is coming from the west side of the island.



just saw a hand trying to fix the lose camera just now .. in this web cam .. looks like something had happened to it and was swinging about .. they have it fixed again now !!
369. vis0
Not good at all, as one sees the higher clouds of Super Typhoon Neoguri react to going over land/island my heart feels as if its being ripped out. My hope is that all people in harms way found secure shelter.

(For official reports please check with the government agencies of the affected countries)

CREDIT::NOAA/Joint Typhoon Warning Center presented thru aviationweather
Imagery area::West & East Pacific
Imagery period::201407-07;0915 till 201407-08;0515UTC
Imagery type:: IR clr

view in a seperate window or youtube for actual width of 1338.

For those not sure of UTC time during EDT its 4 hours ahead, therefore 0515UTC is 1:15AM NYC/EDT
Short good morning hello from rainy Germany.


Monster Waves From Super Typhoon Neoguri Miyakojima, Okinawa - for licensing please email james (at) earthuncut (dot) tv Shot on 8th July at Miyakojima, Japan as typhoon Neoguri passed by the island.



For those that missed TA13's post earlier.
Reid Wiseman
‏@astro_reid
The interesting shaped #eye of super #TyphoonNeoguri – 2155 GMT, 7 July


Quoting 371. AussieStorm:

For those that missed TA13's post earlier.
Reid Wiseman
‏@astro_reid
The interesting shaped #eye of super #TyphoonNeoguri – 2155 GMT, 7 July



It looks like a gaint "tadpole" swimming.
Quoting 326. Grothar:

Judge Judy would only last 2 minutes on the blog. :) Could you imagine the names she would call us?
I think "Judge Judy" wears barbed wire underwear, based on her attitude.
375. MahFL
It's not a Super Typhoon any more, just a regular one.
Morning all.
Quoting 357. bsjmor:

Neoguri - Loop Radar



Looking at these loops makes me speculate that Neoguri's real danger is its size, and thereby how long it will impact these islands. Even TS force winds will do considerable damage if they blow consistently for 24 - 36 hours....

Quoting 361. sar2401:


GN, Baha. Hope you keep getting some rain. It would sure be nice if you could nudge something up my way...
Actually not so far... and if I could send u [and Caribboy] some, you'd already have it.... :o)

For local AOIs... we got no rain overnight in Nassau, though I think the Central Bahamas probably did get a bit. The ULL looks to have drifted a bit NE, taking the bulk of the showers with it. It still doesn't look much like it's building down to me right now. Maybe later, though I hope not tomorrow or Thursday - we have Independence Day on the 10th....

Dust too close.
Quoting 364. rayduray2013:


Dust My Broom...



Dust a Closer Walk With Thee?
mode runs are not doing vary well this year they got Super Typhoon Neoguri forcast winds way off most of the mode runs had it be comeing a vary powerfull Super Typhoon Neoguri with a mb at or below 899mbs and winds above cat 5 it peak at 150 or 155 same thing with the E PAC with DOUGLAS and ELIDA most of the mode runs had the storms be comeing powerfull hurricanes and look what happen they olny be came weak TS and died out mode runs have been vary poor this season so far has far has forcasting the winds and ever thing heck i dont think mode runs even saw FAUSTO comeing i would not put march trust in the mode runs yet this season i would this watch and see how the storm fourms
Good Morning.  That upper level Tutt cell got the best (dried it out) of that flare-up over the Southern Bahamas.  Quiet in the Atlantic and the E-Pac on the move again.  It should remain quiet in the Atlantic for the next several weeks. Sal also remains at very high levels as noted below and on this water vapor shot:

381. MahFL
Quoting 380. weathermanwannabe:

...quiet in the Atlantic for the next several weeks...


On a positive note, The Gulf of Mexico is nice and moist.
Quoting 377. Gearsts:

Dust too close.



That wave inside Africa looks good but again it will meet the demise down the road.
Nino 3.4 is now at 0.2C and the Nino 4 region is negative.



Quoting 383. StormWx:
Nino 3.4 is now at 0.2C and the Nino 4 region is negative.





I guess any developing El Nino will not be as strong. I feel it for California as they need the rains.
Quoting 384. rmbjoe1954:


I guess any developing El Nino will not be as strong. I feel it for California as they need the rains as provided by a stronger El Nino event.
June CO2 figure, just in, at 401.14 ppm. That compares with 398.58 ppm last year.

Link
el nino is out to lunch with scott. could this be the yr numbers are alot higher than forecast? july 31st might have to revise my cv season #s up

Quoting islander44:
Dust a Closer Walk With Thee?
Took me a second.... I'm a bit more of a blues hound than a gospel man.




Quoting barbamz:
Short good morning hello from rainy Germany.


Monster Waves From Super Typhoon Neoguri Miyakojima, Okinawa - for licensing please email james (at) earthuncut (dot) tv Shot on 8th July at Miyakojima, Japan as typhoon Neoguri passed by the island.





Thanks for that.
Love to watch the power of those storm waves.
Quoting islander101010:
el nino is out to lunch with scott. could this be the yr numbers are alot higher than forecast? july 31st might have to revise my cv season #s up


I'm thinking along those lines as well.
Would not be surprised to see a few more than predicted, but not a lot.
I expect shear will remain an issue, along with the dry sinking air.

Whatever happens, I am still waiting for rain, and looking east to that wave and hoping…..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2681829/Glo bal-warming-latest-Amount-Antarctic-sea-ice-hits-n ew-record-high.html

Quoting Tazmanian:
mode runs are not doing vary well this year they got Super Typhoon Neoguri forcast winds way off most of the mode runs had it be comeing a vary powerfull Super Typhoon Neoguri with a mb at or below 899mbs and winds above cat 5 it peak at 150 or 155 same thing with the E PAC with DOUGLAS and ELIDA most of the mode runs had the storms be comeing powerfull hurricanes and look what happen they olny be came weak TS and died out mode runs have been vary poor this season so far has far has forcasting the winds and ever thing heck i dont think mode runs even saw FAUSTO comeing i would not put march trust in the mode runs yet this season i would this watch and see how the storm fourms
Well said, Taz. Whatever you said.

"The March Hare will be much the most interesting, and perhaps as this
is May it won't be raving mad – at least not so mad as it was in March."
-quoting Alice
Quoting Climate175:
Am ready for fall and winter personally, ready for some more snow. Days until meteorological fall: 56 days Days until astronomical fall: 77 days


Thanks for the refreshing image of what's coming. Autumn is my favorite season in the DC area. Conversely even though I like horticulture, summer is my least favorite.

el nino is out to lunch with scott. could this be the yr numbers are alot higher than forecast? july 31st might have to revise my cv season #s up


the formation of el nino is still tracking very close to what the models have been showing....as for upgrading the forecast...i think there are several elements in the atlantic basin that would equate with years past when an el nino was forming.....5 weeks does not create or dismiss a season....but i think when all is said and done...we'll see the influence of el nino of below average numbers in this years season
Good Morning All....A nice cool start to the day.
Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Tue, 08 Jul 6:51 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Tue, 08 Jul 6:40 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
08 Jul 6:40 am PDT 69 41 36 ENE 1G02 OK
Quoting ricderr:

el nino is out to lunch with scott. could this be the yr numbers are alot higher than forecast? july 31st might have to revise my cv season #s up


the formation of el nino is still tracking very close to what the models have been showing....as for upgrading the forecast...i think there are several elements in the atlantic basin that would equate with years past when an el nino was forming.....5 weeks does not create or dismiss a season....but i think when all is said and done...we'll see the influence of el nino of below average numbers in this years season


That's bordering on Tazism……

:):))

Quoting rmbjoe1954:


I guess any developing El Nino will not be as strong. I feel it for California as they need the rains.
It's not just California facing the megadrought. The Colorado River basin is also facing The Grand Parchment.


Quoting 394. ricderr:


el nino is out to lunch with scott. could this be the yr numbers are alot higher than forecast? july 31st might have to revise my cv season #s up


the formation of el nino is still tracking very close to what the models have been showing....as for upgrading the forecast...i think there are several elements in the atlantic basin that would equate with years past when an el nino was forming.....5 weeks does not create or dismiss a season....but i think when all is said and done...we'll see the influence of el nino of below average numbers in this years season


Stop picking on Scott
Quoting 391. WethrGeek:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2681829/Gl o bal-warming-latest-Amount-Antarctic-sea-ice-hits-n ew-record-high.html


The Dailymail is the journalistic equivalent of a sewer drain. However, for the sake of not spreading lies and misinformation, this nonsense has already been debunked as rubbish. Link
Extraordinary El Nino off Peruvian coast not expected by year-end, says research body

June 26, 2014, 5:49 pm

Alicia Villegas

El Nino is not expected to become extraordinary off the coast of Peru (El Nino 1+2 region) by year-end, says the latest report of the Peruvian institution researching El Nino ENFEN.

By end of 2014, ENFEN forecasts weak to moderate warm conditions in the 1+2 region, while conditions are expected to be from warm to strong for the 3.4 region.

Within the next two months, ENFEN projects weak to moderate warm conditions in El Nino 2 region, and moderate in the 3.4 region.

These predictions will be more reliable as Peru moves away from its autumn season, says ENFEN’s report, dated June 21
Stop picking on Scott


please tell me exactly what i said that was picking on scott?.....he's just not that important
That's bordering on Tazism……


lmao.......my blogging skills must be improving
Quoting ricderr:
That's bordering on Tazism……


lmao.......my blogging skills must be improving


heheheheheh.

Laters>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Super Typhoon Neoguri Could Be First Of Tropical Storms To Slam Japan Due To El Nino
By Maria Gallucci
on July 07 2014 3:53 PM

The super typhoon headed toward Japan could be the first of several intense tropical storms to slam the country this year because of El Niño, scientists say.

Typhoon Neoguri (“raccoon” in Korean) strengthened into the first “super” storm of 2014 early Monday, the Japan Meteorological Agency said, and it could batter Japan’s Okinawa archipelago and three of its mainland nuclear power plants within the next two days.

Typhoons form when thunderstorms over the Pacific Ocean pull in moisture from warm surface waters. The moisture then becomes heat in the atmosphere, which increases air flow and in turn creates the eye of a much more powerful storm.

Japan could see four to six significant storm impacts in the 2014 tropical storm season, up from just one to two major impacts last year, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski predicted.

One key reason is the high probability of an El Niño forming in the Pacific Ocean this fall and into early 2015. The World Meteorological Organization has put the odds of an El Niño at 80 percent by the end of the year, and the earliest stages of the event are already evident.
Quoting 400. ricderr:

Extraordinary El Nino off Peruvian coast not expected by year-end, says research body

June 26, 2014, 5:49 pm

Alicia Villegas

El Nino is not expected to become extraordinary off the coast of Peru (El Nino 1+2 region) by year-end, says the latest report of the Peruvian institution researching El Nino ENFEN.

By end of 2014, ENFEN forecasts weak to moderate warm conditions in the 1+2 region, while conditions are expected to be from warm to strong for the 3.4 region.

Within the next two months, ENFEN projects weak to moderate warm conditions in El Nino 2 region, and moderate in the 3.4 region.

These predictions will be more reliable as Peru moves away from its autumn season, says ENFEN’s report, dated June 21


And don't forget Australia's Bureau of Meteorology's ENSO Wrap up from July 1,

" While the tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperature is currently at levels typically associated with a weak El Niño, waters below the surface have cooled and atmospheric patterns continue to remain neutral.

However, over the past fortnight changes have occurred in the atmosphere that may be a response to the warm surface waters–the Southern Oscillation Index has dropped by over 10 points, and weakened trade winds have re-appeared. These changes would need to persist for several weeks in order for an El Niño to be considered established, and it remains possible they are simply related to shorter term weather variability.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau continue to indicate that El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014. "
Link
heheheheheh.

Laters>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>



have a good one pot

Quoting ricderr:
Extraordinary El Nino off Peruvian coast not expected by year-end, says research body

June 26, 2014, 5:49 pm

Alicia Villegas

El Nino is not expected to become extraordinary off the coast of Peru (El Nino 1+2 region) by year-end, says the latest report of the Peruvian institution researching El Nino ENFEN.

By end of 2014, ENFEN forecasts weak to moderate warm conditions in the 1+2 region, while conditions are expected to be from warm to strong for the 3.4 region.

Within the next two months, ENFEN projects weak to moderate warm conditions in El Nino 2 region, and moderate in the 3.4 region.

These predictions will be more reliable as Peru moves away from its autumn season, says ENFEN’s report, dated June 21
Hmm, this seems to be more-or-less what Joe Bastardi was predicting two months ago. I doubted his bluster back then, now I'm wondering if he might actually know something about weather. :)
latest ECMWF long range model is still predicting a moderate el nino event...but i can't find the model run anywhere....all i can find is their june run
TS Fausto heading out to sea.

Hmm, this seems to be more-or-less what Joe Bastardi was predicting two months ago. I doubted his bluster back then, now I'm wondering if he might actually know something about weather. :)


i think joe has been all over the board on this one....but lately he's been more bullish on what the models are predicting
And don't forget Australia's Bureau of Meteorology's ENSO Wrap up from July 1,


yep...and the CPC will release their monthly update on the 10th



Quoting Naga5000:


And don't forget Australia's Bureau of Meteorology's ENSO Wrap up from July 1,

" While the tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperature is currently at levels typically associated with a weak El Niño, waters below the surface have cooled and atmospheric patterns continue to remain neutral.

However, over the past fortnight changes have occurred in the atmosphere that may be a response to the warm surface waters–the Southern Oscillation Index has dropped by over 10 points, and weakened trade winds have re-appeared. These changes would need to persist for several weeks in order for an El Niño to be considered established, and it remains possible they are simply related to shorter term weather variability.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau continue to indicate that El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014. "
Link
Talk about mixed signals. Now that SST and sub-sea are backing off and indicating a weak El Nino, the SOI is finally showing signs of an atmosphere preparing for a strong-ish El Nino.

"Merry, merry quite contrary...
what makes a mystery grow?
With silver bells and cockle shells
all pretty mad doncha know."


If El Nino is not officially declared by August, then it will be three straight years in a row with Enso Neutral conditions for the Atlantic season which might be a record nearing 24 consecutive months or more. I hope an El Nino does materialize along the lines of a weak or moderate one which is good all across the board; reduces the numbers of Atlantic hurricanes by a bit and does not have as strong an impact across the Globe in other critical weather related areas.
Quoting ricderr:
And don't forget Australia's Bureau of Meteorology's ENSO Wrap up from July 1,


yep...and the CPC will release their monthly update on the 10th


If i remember correctly Scott has dismissed this hurricane season and said we will only get 5-7 named storms. I know you still got that crow factory dontcha? lol

Did you upset the rain gods? Texas is dry the next 5 days!


Quoting ricderr:



i think joe has been all over the board on this one....
I've found this technique works well for claiming prophesy chops. No matter what happens, it's been predicted! :)
Quoting 408. ricderr:

latest ECMWF long range model is still predicting a moderate el nino event...but i can't find the model run anywhere....all i can find is their june run


Every month by the 15th the new run is released.

Link

Quoting 379. Tazmanian:

mode runs are not doing vary well this year they got Super Typhoon Neoguri forcast winds way off most of the mode runs had it be comeing a vary powerfull Super Typhoon Neoguri with a mb at or below 899mbs and winds above cat 5 it peak at 150 or 155 same thing with the E PAC with DOUGLAS and ELIDA most of the mode runs had the storms be comeing powerfull hurricanes and look what happen they olny be came weak TS and died out mode runs have been vary poor this season so far has far has forcasting the winds and ever thing heck i dont think mode runs even saw FAUSTO comeing i would not put march trust in the mode runs yet this season i would this watch and see how the storm fourms


I believe that the HWRF has done amazingly well this year. Accurately predicted Amanda and Christina, and once Arthur was designated, was the best model on Arthur.
Hello all! Over the past few weeks, I have been lurking quite a bit! More than a few times, I have wanted to post, but did not want to get caught up in the childish infighting that seems to accompany so many statements, especially from those bloggers who make their declarations without any sort of evidence, and then bluster and insult when called out! For the record, I for one would rather have someone who is over-enthusiastic about weather and climate than an individual who is over enthusiastic about insulting bloggers and scoring points for borrowing the knowledge of others.

As for El Niño, haven't the models always shown a quick dip in anomalies in July, then a rebound in August? I still think we're priming for a moderate event. The atmosphere finally seems to be responding, and lately, there have been some typical El Niño like behaviors from the animals, as scientists around the country have begun to note. I also believe that this El Niño may be followed with a very strong La Niña, which should make next year's tropical Atlantic season a fun one to watch, but a possibly dangerous one to the east, southeast and gulf coasts.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
If El Nino is not officially declared by August, then it will be three straight years in a row with Enso Neutral conditions for the Atlantic season which might be a record nearing 24 consecutive months or more. I hope an El Nino does materialize along the lines of a weak or moderate one which is good all across the board; reduces the numbers of Atlantic hurricanes by a bit and does not have as strong an impact across the Globe in other critical weather related areas.


Don't get ur hopes up! El Niño right now looks dead infact all I can see at best is a weak one developing at that. What impact that has on all these seasonal predictions like CSU calling for a strong to moderate El Niño this year is yet to be seen. It could get busy come mid/ August.
the mets in texas said the death ridge is going to settle in place this weekend. Too bad, my lawn and garden were happy with the daily showers.

Quoting 414. StormWx:



If i remember correctly Scott has dismissed this hurricane season and said we will only get 5-7 named storms. I know you still got that crow factory dontcha? lol

Did you upset the rain gods? Texas is dry the next 5 days!


421. jpsb
Quoting 410. ricderr:

Hmm, this seems to be more-or-less what Joe Bastardi was predicting two months ago. I doubted his bluster back then, now I'm wondering if he might actually know something about weather. :)


i think joe has been all over the board on this one....but lately he's been more bullish on what the models are predicting


I found this from march 15th

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-march -15-2014
As for El Niño, haven't the models always shown a quick dip in anomalies in July, then a rebound in August? I still think we're priming for a moderate event. The atmosphere finally seems to be responding, and lately, there have been some typical El Niño like behaviors from the animals, as scientists around the country have begun to note. I also believe that this El Niño may be followed with a very strong La Niña, which should make next year's tropical Atlantic season a fun one to watch, but a possibly dangerous one to the east, southeast and gulf coasts.

exactly!!!!...the cfsv2 has shown this for quite some time...and the aussie mets mentioned this in their last update.....stating to the effect that the warm pool in the ENSO regions would keep the waters warmer than average during the fall cooling period which is when el nino would be declared
Quoting 326. Grothar:



Judge Judy would only last 2 minutes on the blog. :) Could you imagine the names she would call us?


I think it's the other bloggers that would fold under her withering statements. But not all of us.
notice the july dip



the mets in texas said the death ridge is going to settle in place this weekend. Too bad, my lawn and garden were happy with the daily showers.


not all of texas will be dry......see over there in the far west of el paso....we're due another tenth of an inch.....WHOOHOO
Quoting 401. ricderr:

Stop picking on Scott


please tell me exactly what i said that was picking on scott?.....he's just not that important
"Out to lunch" is not exactly a complimentary phrase.
I've found this technique works well for claiming prophesy chops. No matter what happens, it's been predicted! :)


either that....or every prediction you make is wrong....there's some that are tracking that way concerning el nino
"Out to lunch" is not exactly a complimentary phrase.


i didn't post that...islander did...i was responding to islander...i did not say anything to or about scott....
Quoting 387. islander101010:

el nino is out to lunch with scott. could this be the yr numbers are alot higher than forecast? july 31st might have to revise my cv season #s up


i hate the quote button....but here is the comment that has been attributed to me......but you all are going to just have to bash someone else this time....
Quoting 419. hurricane23:



Don't get ur hopes up! El Niño right now looks dead infact all I can see at best is a weak one developing at that. What impact that has on all these seasonal predictions like CSU calling for a strong to moderate El Niño this year is yet to be seen. It could get busy come mid/ August.

Do you know anything about this organization?
http://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/
They are calling for an above average season and no El Nino.
Quoting 420. mcdsara1:

the mets in texas said the death ridge is going to settle in place this weekend. Too bad, my lawn and garden were happy with the daily showers.




Not all ridges are death ridges. They have to persist for an (unspecified) long time. Examples are 1980 and 2011. 1980 was especially noteworthy, at least to me because the whole South was impacted all of July and August and much of September and July-August 1980 remain the most miserably hot two month period of my life in DC going back to the 60s. The outlier summers of 2010-2012 were hot for longer (June 1980 was rather cool in DC) and July 2011 stands alone as an unbelievably hot single month here but JA of 1980 was just stinking continuously hot and mostly dry with one striking mid august cool break. Heat lasted through the first half of September at midsummer levels.
Quoting 410. ricderr:

Hmm, this seems to be more-or-less what Joe Bastardi was predicting two months ago. I doubted his bluster back then, now I'm wondering if he might actually know something about weather. :)


i think joe has been all over the board on this one....but lately he's been more bullish on what the models are predicting


Joe Bastardi was an exceptionally talented weather forecaster when he was a student at Penn State in the mid 70s. I just missed him enrolling about the time he graduated. He also compiled an impressive record at Accuweather. His climate science is just wrong but his weather analysis skills are solid.
from weatherwest

El Niño update

After a remarkably rapid warming of Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures during early June as the powerful Kelvin wave from earlier this year surfaced, SST anomalies have recently begun to decrease. This has occurred because the large subsurface temperature anomalies have largely exhausted themselves and have not recently been reinforced by new warm water from the West Pacific. This evolution is consistent with recent coupled atmosphere-ocean model projections, but is somewhat different than what had been projected a couple of months ago, when more consistent warming was expected.

Animation of 4-month global SST anomalies. Note persistent N. Pacific warm pool and developing equatorial El Nino signature. (NOAA)
Animation of 4-month global SST anomalies. Note persistent N. Pacific warm pool and developing equatorial El Nino signature. (NOAA)
There’s a lot of speculation presently surrounding the “demise of El Niño” on the basis of this recent development, which I’d argue is just as premature as the equally confident headlines which–just a few short months ago–called for a “mega/monster/hyper El Niño” later this year. The reality is: the ocean-atmosphere system is very complex and responds to both foreseeable longer-term forces and unforeseeable random ones. What does this mean in the present context? Well, so-called “westerly wind bursts”–which help to enhance developing El Niño events by disrupting the prevailing equatorial trade winds and allowing warm West Pacific water to “slosh” eastward–typically result from individual low pressure systems (sometimes typhoons) that spin up in the West Pacific.

Large positive SST anomalies exist along the Southern California coast. (NOAA)
Large positive SST anomalies exist along the Southern California coast. (NOAA)
These sorts of events–which fall under the purview of “weather,” since they evolve on timescales of a few days to perhaps a week–are very difficult to predict more than a week in advance, yet they are fundamentally important to ENSO’s evolution. While we did finally witness a new (but fairly weak) westerly wind burst over the past week, the continued evolution toward an El Niño state will require additional and sustained westerly wind bursts later this summer, and we don’t yet know if that’s going to occur. The dynamical models appear to think so–since the ensemble mean remains fairly bullish in predicting a moderate-to-strong event by next winter (and, interestingly, above-normal precipitation in coastal California during the same time frame).

However, as recent events have demonstrated quite clearly, the real world sometimes deviates from even our most reasoned expectations. There are a few things we can say with high confidence about conditions over the next few months, though. Sea surface temperature will likely remain quite elevated in the Eastern Pacific (including along the coast of Southern California, where water temperatures are currently as high as the upper 70s in San Diego Bay, and a very impressive 3-6 F above normal across a wide region).

Recent CFS model projections hint at early signs of a wetter-than-average DJF 2014-2015. (NOAA/NCEP/CPC)
Recent CFS model projections hint at early signs of a wetter-than-average DJF 2014-2015. (NOAA/NCEP/CPC)
This will probably keep near-coastal regions in the southern part of the state warmer than usual for the remainder of summer, and may allow for a higher-than-usual likelihood of tropical cyclone remnant moisture to affect California for the rest of summer and early fall.

Finally, recent trends and current model projections suggest that SST anomalies by the fall and winter months may be quite different across the North Pacific than in recent years–more reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation than of the negative phase, which has been the prevalent condition since the last big El Niño ended in 1998. Historically, such SST configurations have favored wetter winters in California, though it’s not at all clear that this will be the case in 2014-2015. For now, it’s probably wisest to prepare for what will nearly certainly be a hot, very dry 3 months to come.
Joe Bastardi was an exceptionally talented weather forecaster when he was a student at Penn State in the mid 70s. I just missed him enrolling about the time he graduated. He also compiled an impressive record at Accuweather. His climate science is just wrong but his weather analysis skills are solid.


i would agree...it's just the noise he makes....unfortunately overshadows what he does know
I am thinking that SAL is going to play a big factor this season during the Cape Verde part of the season (possible suppression of development in the Central Atlantic region east of 60W) based on what we have been seeing unless some rains materialize in the Sahel over the next 45 days; time will tell.
Quoting ricderr:

the mets in texas said the death ridge is going to settle in place this weekend. Too bad, my lawn and garden were happy with the daily showers.


not all of texas will be dry......see over there in the far west of el paso....we're due another tenth of an inch.....WHOOHOO


That's 2.54 whole mm!
437. MAstu
Quoting 430. sporteguy03:


Do you know anything about this organization?
http://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/
They are calling for an above average season and no El Nino.
I think it's just one guy. He does hurricane predictions 4 years out in addition to earthquake predictions and various other predictions. The consensus around here is that he is a nut job
I have never liked bullies. I have never understood that part of our human nature where one has pleasure in deriding someone else; especially when that other person is a stranger. We don't know what special problems others have. We do not know if someone is in a wheelchair, or hearing impaired or learning disability or any other myriad of mental or psychological impairments. The only benefit is to simply be cruel to another. I wonder how many of us would want that visited upon our children?

Enjoy the map.



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
That's 2.54 whole mm!


lol.......that sounds so much more impressive than a tenth
Quoting 429. ricderr:



i hate the quote button....but here is the comment that has been attributed to me......but you all are going to just have to bash someone else this time....
Sorry -- I guess I didn't look at it closely enough. You're at least partly off the hook :-)
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443. PTXer
Quoting 438. Grothar:

I have never liked bullies. I have never understood that part of our human nature where one has pleasure in deriding someone else; especially when that other person is a stranger. We don't know what special problems others have. We do not know if someone is in a wheelchair, or hearing impaired or learning disability or any other myriad of mental or psychological impairments. The only benefit is to simply be cruel to another. I wonder how many of us would want that visited upon our children?

Enjoy the map.






As usual, your timing is impeccable Gro. I dont like that map, I will be at an outdoor concert tonight....
444. jpsb
Quoting 432. georgevandenberghe:



Joe Bastardi was an exceptionally talented weather forecaster when he was a student at Penn State in the mid 70s. I just missed him enrolling about the time he graduated. He also compiled an impressive record at Accuweather. His climate science is just wrong but his weather analysis skills are solid.


In 421 I posted Joe's take (March 15) on the 2014 El Nino while his forecast has not yet verified he was MUCH closer to the mark then anyone else I know of.

oh, there is space in the url that needs to be removed after you paste the link into your browser.