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Hurricane Arthur Pounds North Carolina, Heads for Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:20 PM GMT on July 04, 2014

Hurricane Arthur has weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds on Friday morning, after delivering a direct hit to the barrier islands of eastern North Carolina on Thursday night. Officially, Arthur made landfall at Shackleford Banks between Cape Lookout and Beaufort, North Carolina at 11:15 pm EDT July 3, 2014 as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. It was the first Category 2 hurricane to make U.S. landfall since Hurricane Ike of 2008 (which had 110 mph winds at landfall.) Arthur is only the fourth July hurricane to hit North Carolina since accurate records began in 1851, and the earliest in the year to hit the state. Other July hurricanes to hit the state occurred in 1901, 1908, and 1996. Fortunately, no deaths or injuries were reported due to Arthur, and damage was minimal, said North Carolina governor Pat McCory at a 9:30 am EDT July 4 press conference, though 44,000 customers lost power. The vast majority of the 60,000 permanent residents who live on the Outer Banks did not evacuate. Highway 12 connecting the Outer Banks to the mainland was flooded and covered with sand, but is scheduled to re-open on Saturday. The Bonner Bridge crossing Oregon Inlet on Highway 12 needs to be inspected before it can re-open, since there is concern that the 4.5' storm surge that roared though the inlet early Friday morning may have scoured sand away from the support pilings. Luckily, the highest surge occurred at low tide.


Figure 1. NASA astronaut Reid Wiseman tweeted this photo of the storm from the International Space Station taken through a 10.5mm fish eye lens at 9:30 am EDT July 4, 2014. At the time, Arthur was a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds.


Figure 2. Radar out of Wilmington, North Carolina at 11:22 pm EDT July 3, 2014, as Arthur made landfall at Cape Lookout, NC.


Figure 3. Total radar-estimated rainfall for North Carolina from Arthur from the Wilmington, North Carolina radar.

Wind, wave, storm surge, and tornado reports

Here are the top winds measured in North Carolina from Arthur:

Cape Lookout CMAN, 71 mph gusting to 84 mph at 10 pm (though NHC reported that this station had sustained winds of 77 mph, gusting to 101 mph between the regular hourly reporting times)
Beaufort, 54 mph gusting to 69 mph at 10:24 pm
Cape Hatteras USCG, 64 mph gusting to 78 mph at 1:36 am
Oregon Inlet Marina, 54 mph gusting to 69 mph at 5:24 am

A significant wave height of 21.3' was observed at Oregon Inlet at 4:47 am EDT.

Here are the top storm surge levels measured at NOAA tide gauges from Arthur:

4.5' at Oregon Inlet, NC
2.5' at Hatteras, NC USCG Station
2.4' at Beaufort, NC
2.1' at Duck, NC
2.1' at Sewells Point, VA
2.1' at Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded one tornado in North Carolina on Thursday from Arthur; the tornado did only minor damage.


Figure 4. Aerial view of Highway 12 to the North Carolina Outer Banks on the morning of July 4, 2014 after the storm surge of Hurricane Arthur had scoured the coast. Image credit: U.S. Coast Guard.

Forecast for Arthur
Satellite loops on Friday afternoon showed that Arthur's eye had filled with clouds, and the storm had expanded in size. Top winds of the hurricane at 11 am EDT were still a formidable 90 mph, with the central pressure a respectable 976 mb. With wind shear a high 25 knots and sea surface temperatures a chilly 24°C, Arthur will steadily weaken, but is still expected to have 70 - 75 mph winds when it makes landfall in Western Nova Scotia between 5 am - 8 am EDT Saturday, July 5. By late morning Saturday, Arthur will complete the transition to a powerful extratropical storm with tropical storm-force winds. The 11 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast from NHC gave Yarmouth, Nova Scotia a 12% chance of hurricane-force winds, and a 93% chance of tropical storm-force winds. Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts were given 88% and 54% chances of tropical storm-force winds, respectively.

Arthur's formation is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season
The first hurricane of the season typically occurs on August 10, so Arthur is quite a bit ahead of schedule. Arthur was able to form so early because it was over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream Current, and these waters happened to be over 1°F warmer than usual for this time of year. Formation of a June or July hurricane like Arthur off the U.S. coast is typically not a harbinger of an active hurricane season, since these storms do not form from African tropical waves. Arthur spun up from a cluster of thunderstorms and their associated low pressure system that moved off the Southeast U.S. coast, and hurricanes that get their start this way are typically too far north and too close to land to be able to intensify into major hurricanes. The bigger threat are hurricanes that get their start from tropical waves traversing Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes (from the coast of Africa to Central America between 10° - 20°N, including the Caribbean Sea.) Tropical waves that traverse the MDR are responsible for 85% of all major (Category 3 and stronger) hurricanes. When June and July hurricanes and tropical storms form in the MDR, it usually does portend an active hurricane season, since it shows that atmospheric and oceanic conditions are primed to assist development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa during the peak mid-August through mid-October part of hurricane season.

A better way to evaluate whether or not this will be an active hurricane season is to look at sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the MDR, and the status of El Niño. MDR SSTs are currently very close to average, and are thus unlikely to contribute to an above-average hurricane season. The very warm equatorial waters currently off the coast of South America suggest that an El Niño event is in the process of developing. When an El Niño event occurs during hurricane season, it tends to create an atmospheric circulation that brings unusually strong upper-level winds to the tropical Atlantic. These strong winds create a shearing action (wind shear) on any tropical storms or hurricanes that may be attempting to form, disrupting their circulation. Thus, the pre-season predictions of a below-average or near-average hurricane season still look good.


Video 1. ‪Hurricane Arthur at The Frying Pan Tower Adventure B&B‬ (thanks to Skyepony for posting this link in my blog comments.)

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thanks Dr. Masters for the new blog!
Gurgle, gurgle.
Thanks for the update Dr Masters! Arthur was a fun storm to follow and track! Glad it did minimal damage.
Thanks, Doc. Happy 4th of July.
thanxs dr masters he should not be classified as a june system just a few hours too early
Interesting that a CAT2 (100mph) storm failed to produce CAT1 sustained winds at most locations that saw the eye wall.




Arthur was a case of a storm fighting off constant dry air entrainment and still intensifying into a Cat 2. Arthur was also a good example of how dry air has a very limiting factor even in a Cat 2. Eye had dry air throughout and when the eye went over the OB it had a very weak impact compared to what one would expect from a Cat.2 eye. Collapsing thunderstorms from bands around the eye due to the dry air stopped the outer bands from being what one might expect from a 100 mph hurricane. So while Arthur stole the show, dry air saved the day. And my favorite lesson learned, if power and cell service is still ongoing, then widespread destruction is likely not happening. Did some research on it, and that parallels almost across the board for the really bad hurricanes from the past. Thanks for that tidbit Sar.
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters,
happy 4th to you doc........thanx for the update
we have a hwy 12...dont know why its so strange to me to hear about it on the east cost :)
Thank you Dr. Masters for the updates throughout and for a great blog.
Quoting 1630. sar2401:


Not east bias in track, east bias in terms of the lopsided nature of the winds and rains. The fact that the strongest winds and heaviest precipitation stayed offshore is why we're seeing such light damage today.

Dolly sure lived up to it's cat 2 status in terms of wind damage in South Padre Island, thanks to that very heavy southern eyewall that all managed to come onshore.
this season will be just like 2002. anybody agree or disagree?
Quoting 7. Sfloridacat5:

Interesting that a CAT2 (100mph) storm failed to produce CAT1 sustained winds in most locations that saw the eye wall.







That's exactly what I was noticing yesterday afternoon and evening. I would have to think that wind damage will be absurdly light for a supposed category 2 hurricane, especially in a coastal area with frequent high wind events. Sustained winds of 74 mph or greater in a tropical cyclone are true hurricane conditions. Fortunately, virtually no stations even had such strong winds. I'm certainly glad NC did not get a bad impact from Arthur, especially with all of the tourists out on the barrier islands.

Quoting 13. opal92nwf:


Dolly sure lived up to it's cat 2 status in terms of wind damage in South Padre Island, all thanks to that very heavy southern eyewall that all managed to come onshore.


Oh yeah, I've seen the videos of that one. It was a cat. 2 alright. The videos I've seen so far of Arthur are of low end tropical storm force winds.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
this season will be just like 2002. anybody agree or disagree?
Agree.

About to get humid there Joe.
Those top wind speeds for Arthur are basically what Baton Rouge had during Gustav only BR is WAYY inland. At the airport, KBTR, on the north side of town Gustav brought sustained winds over 60 mph and gusts to 90 mph.

And both storms were category 2. It does not add up.
Quoting 18. PedleyCA:


About to get humid there Joe.


It sus so bad! Can only hope for rain. I am going to by a A/C window type 15,000 BTU, should do the job for living room and kitchen. Its like $400. I just cannot do the humidity thing any more.
Of course, it's all about the convection. I sat on my back porch watching Claudette come right over my house. Before that yellow "eyewall" came through, it was nothing to note at all. But when it did come through, it was like someone flipped a switch.
Typhoon Neoguri should grab the attention for the next few days as is forecast to be a supertyphoon down the road and may be a threat to Okinawa.

Here it comes, here it comes, here it comes, here it comes
Here comes your nineteenth nervous breakdown
Quoting bappit:
Those top wind speeds for Arthur are basically what Baton Rouge had during Gustav only BR is WAYY inland. At the airport, KBTR, on the north side of town Gustav brought sustained winds over 60 mph and gusts to 90 mph.

And both storms were category 2. It does not add up.


The strongest winds must have stayed offshore even though the eye made landfall?

As mentioned, most of the reporting stations that saw Arthurs eye/eye wall only received Tropical Storm conditions.
...ARTHUR PASSING WELL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 72.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
Recon just got 975.5mb for a pressure on Arthur. So its at least holding steady for pressure, but I'd imagine winds have come down some.

Quoting 21. HurricaneHunterJoe:



It sus so bad! Can only hope for rain. I am going to by a A/C window type 15,000 BTU, should do the job for living room and kitchen. Its like $400. I just cannot do the humidity thing any more.

That is a decent size for a house. I had a 12,400 in my apartment in Burbank and it worked great but ya need some $$$ to run those babies...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Recon just got 975.5mb for a pressure on Arthur. So its at least holding steady for pressure, but I'd imagine winds have come down some.



Looks like Arthur will pass real close to Nantucket
Hopefully Typhoon Neoguri recurves before getting to Japan, looks like a close call. First Cat 5 typhoon coming and if models are correct then anywhere from a sub 900mb to 925mb storm is coming. 165-190 mph winds likely. Sheesh. SST's off the Philippines are scary and any typhoon that finds those waters will be a Cat 5 possibility. As TA13 pointed out, during El Nino seasons a high pressure forms NE of Japan and tends to recurve typhoons away from the Philippines.
Quoting 7. Sfloridacat5:

Interesting that a CAT2 (100mph) storm failed to produce CAT1 sustained winds at most locations that saw the eye wall.





This should be of no real surprise as a lot of cat 2 and cat 3 Hurricanes do not make that big of an impact when they strike land for a variety of reasons, never able to produce the high wind speeds that were advertised by the NHC. I've seen a lot of these storms come in like a pussy cat in stead of a lion. But I've also seen cat-1 storms come ashore like they were cat-4s knocking down every palm tree in site.
Besides 1957, what other years can we think of that had one notable hurricane earlier in the season and then not much else after?
Quoting 31. HurriHistory:

This should be of no real surprise as a lot of cat 2 and cat 3 Hurricanes do not make that big of an impact when they strike land for a variety of reasons, never able to produce the high wind speeds that were advertised by the NHC. I've seen a lot of these storms come in like a pussy cat in stead of a lion. But I've also seen cat-1 storms come ashore like they were cat-4s knocking down every palm tree in site.

From Jay Barnes' book Florida's Hurricane HIstory regarding hurricane Opal: "most areas received winds that were well below category 3 strength. Many observers reported that the winds were 'not as bad as Erin.'"
Quoting HurriHistory:
This should be of no real surprise as a lot of cat 2 and cat 3 Hurricanes do not make that big of an impact when they strike land for a variety of reasons, never able to produce the high wind speeds that were advertised by the NHC. I've seen a lot of these storms come in like a pussy cat in stead of a lion. But I've also seen cat-1 storms come ashore like they were cat-4s knocking down every palm tree in site.
Can you give some examples?
60kts and heading for the vicinity of Okinawa..... TS Neoguri should be a Typhoon soon





Thanks, Dr. Masters.
The reason why Arthur wasn't the greatest rain maker is that it had weaker convection than usual and overall less heavy rain bands than usual, which might be why despite looking very organized on satellite, it took recon a while to see real intensification, and it was also small and fast moving. Most heavy rain cores probably only lasted for 10 minutes or so.

I know from first experience on how convective intensity can really impact wind strength. When hurricane Frances cut across Central Florida in 2004, we had hours of wind gusts only 40-45 mph as it was cutting across despite getting close to the center of circulation. However, as it hit the gulf the next day, even though pressures rose and max winds were found less from traversing the state, wind got much stronger here as a large area of deep convection developed off the gulf as winds veered southwest. Wind reports increased dramatically as strong convective bands developed. Wind speed increased and we ended up having hours of sustained winds of 45-55 mph and gusts as high as 65-75 mph at peak. Also, from Frances making landfall up until reaching the FL west coast, rainfall was only 1-2 inches from just hours of steady stratiform rain. However, rainfall the next day was between 5-10 inches with even isolated heavy totals, I ended up with just under 12 inches, and substantial wind damage in my neighborhood with 3 homes that had roof failure, about 12 hours without power, trees and power lines down here and there, and mess of small debris like small branches and leaves everywhere.

My point is that the storm was unimpressive until deeper convection developed the next day with the onshore flow, then in got much worse, more than we expected. The deeper convection was able to bring down the stronger winds that were just above the very surface. It makes since that maximum sustained surface winds over ocean don't translate to the surface due to friction, the winds naturally want to lift just above the surface. However, deeper convection can help bring that back down to the surface over land areas.

Hurricane Charley was a great example of this, Charley had an extremely intense ring of eyewall convection, which allowed it to intensify so rapidly, but also allowed the full power of the hurricane to actually get translated down to the surface. The result was substantial structural damage to many places in the path, and locally extreme damage, even causing notable damage to stronger built structures and complete destruction of weaker buildings. After going down to help with damage cleanup, it looked more like a tornado had hit.

The severe damage continued well inland, even up through Polk County. Charley was able to deliver stronger winds well inland thanks to very strong eyewall convection that persisted even as it came through Orlando.


This may help explain the lack of wind and wind damage living up to the strength of Arthur, although I am not fully sure, so I don't claim that its fact.

Still though, I did some analysis of Arthur and found that deep layer tropical moisture did not extend very far out from Aurthur, in other words, its tropical cyclone moisture radius was not very large. The air got rapidly drier not far from the inner core. Its possible that the close proximity to drier air allowed at least a shallow dry layer to frequently penetrate into the inner core and eyewall convection, causing Arthur to struggle.

The difficulty is that its hard to know for sure if this was the case, as it only takes a very small dry layer to penetrate to cause problems for a tropical system even if overall the airmass is very moist. This is since tropical cyclones rely on the release of latent heat into the air. Any layer of air that is less than ideal in terms of moisture can mean evaporative cooling, which can cause convection in a tropical system to either weaken or die completely.
I think Arthur's impressive eye and eyewall structure, and impressive outflow was what allowed it to still strengthen. My guess is that if Arthur had a larger moisture field and stronger deeper convection, it would have deepened much faster and much stronger winds, and surge could have been the result.

I could be wrong, but that's my best take on Arthur.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1103 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 AM MARINE TSTM WIND LEWES 38.78N 75.15W
07/04/2014 M51 MPH SUSSEX DE WEATHER FLOW

MULTIPLE GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

0954 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG LEWES 38.78N 75.15W
07/04/2014 SUSSEX DE 911 CALL CENTER

TREE BLOWN INTO A HOUSE IN OAKCREST FARMS.

1005 AM MARINE TSTM WIND CAPE MAY 38.94N 74.90W
07/04/2014 M41 MPH CAPE MAY NJ WEATHER FLOW

1049 AM HEAVY RAIN LAUREL 38.55N 75.57W
07/04/2014 M3.35 INCH SUSSEX DE DEOS

1049 AM HEAVY RAIN LEWES 38.78N 75.15W
07/04/2014 M3.01 INCH SUSSEX DE DEOS
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 18:10ZAircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 16Observation Number: 07A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 17:38:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 38°19'N 72°32'W (38.3167N 72.5333W) (View map)B. Center Fix Location: 126 miles (202 km) to the SE (125°) from Atlantic City, NJ, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,879m (9,446ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the SW (233°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 299° at 71kts (From the WNW at ~ 81.7mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the SW (232°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 979mb (28.91 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Not AvailableM. Eye Shape: Not AvailableN. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical milesRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph) which was observed 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the NE (52°) from the flight level center at 18:00:00ZMaximum Flight Level Temp: 13°C (55°F) which was observed 43 nautical miles (49 statute miles) to the SW (233°) from the flight level centerRemarks Section - Additional Remarks...CTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 300/09General Notes About Vortex Messages:- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm."- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the "maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center."(Quotes from National Hurricane Operations Plan - NHOP)
Quoting 34. bappit:

Can you give some examples?


Everybody wanting fact backed quotes.....LOL ; )
Everyone must be BBQ ing! Happy Independence Day America!!
To Doc M and everyone in the U.S.

glitter-graphics.com
Quoting 37. Jedkins01:

The reason why Arthur wasn't the greatest rain maker is that it had weaker convection than usual and overall less heavy rain bands than usual, which might be why despite looking very organized on satellite, it took recon a while to see real intensification, and it was also small and fast moving. Most heavy rain cores probably only lasted for 10 minutes or so.

I know from first experience on how convective intensity can really impact wind strength. When hurricane Frances cut across Central Florida in 2004, we had hours of wind gusts only 40-45 mph as it was cutting across despite getting close to the center of circulation.



I mean, it's amazing how I couldn't find any tropical storm winds until I was 40 miles from the eye. Even that, I only got gusts up to 40 mph.
Quoting 20. bappit:

Those top wind speeds for Arthur are basically what Baton Rouge had during Gustav only BR is WAYY inland. At the airport, KBTR, on the north side of town Gustav brought sustained winds over 60 mph and gusts to 90 mph.

And both storms were category 2. It does not add up.


With what Dr Masters said, it almost looks as if the winds were overstated and certainly not conservative as some commented on. Dr M always has good stats after storms. The damage from winds and surge that I've seen are more on par with a strong TS/weak cane. 102 gust is highest I saw, but I don't think I've seen any damage that would correlate. I'm just glad it wasn't a giant and NC seems to have come through with only a few minor scratches and dents. Knowing NC, they'll be good as new in no time. Haven't heard of any serious injuries or deaths either and that's what really counts.

So with that, in case you missed it...



Have a fine 4th y'all! Beautiful day in swFL! Feels as if that front pushed, or tried to at least, some drier/VERY meagerly cooler air over FL. It's not cool by any means, but it's nicer than it has been and radar shows no storms. The show will go on as planned! Again, Happy 4th of July, stay safe and don't drink and drive.
Quoting 34. bappit:

Can you give some examples?
Yes, Hurricane Cleo which hit Miami Beach on August 27, 1964 as a cat-2 came ashore like a strong cat-3.
Quoting 33. opal92nwf:


From Jay Barnes' book Florida's Hurricane HIstory regarding hurricane Opal: "most areas received winds that were well below category 3 strength. Many observers reported that the winds were 'not as bad as Erin.'"
Your correct as I chased Opal and was in Fort Walton Beach Fl. The highest winds I saw were maybe 80-MPH in gust at best. But produced one hell of a storm surge!
Hurricane Arthur Graphics Update (2:00 pm Advisory - click to enlarge)
Well, this CNN reporter could hardly stand up in Arthur's wind. Looks like a cat 2 to me.

Youtube Link
The main reason the wind speed reports were a lot less than 100mph, is that the hurricane passed to the right of land, the weaker side of the storm. The storm is moving 25 mph, so if the top winds are to the right of the storm are 100mph those on the left will be around 50mph (ie actual winds if storm was stationary would be 75mph then add forward movement of 25 mph and you get max winds of 100mph on the east, and 50 on the left.
They could have shortened this to say Muggy, Chance of Thunderstorms

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FXUS66 KSGX 041702
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1002 AM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS...AND INLAND VALLEYS. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING SATURDAY. THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9AM PDT...MORNING CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SCATTER OUT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...THE MARINE TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHT OF AROUND
1000 FT MSL...WHICH IS MUCH SHALLOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH LATE MORNING. SHALLOW
AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL BEACHES AND MESAS
AGAIN TONIGHT.

ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP...A TIGHT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM THE SAN DIEGO COASTAL WATERS TOWARDS LAS
VEGAS WAS OBSERVED...MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE BAJA
SPINE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LOWER DESERT DEW POINTS THIS
MORNING HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW 70S...DISPLAYING THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE 04/1200Z NKX SOUNDING SHOWED A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE LAYER ALOFT AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE 10000 FT MSL. WITH
1.4 PWAT...A FORECAST LIFTED INDEX OF -1.4...AND FORECAST SURFACE
BASED CAPE OF 1235 J/KG...PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN AND DESERT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH PASSING OVER THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND ANOTHER TO PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THESE
MAY ACT TO TRIGGER THE STORMS. WITH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE STILL RELATIVELY DRY...THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE MCS THAT IS FORECAST OVER TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SE CA DESERTS TONIGHT. ANY OUT FLOW BOUNDARY FOR THAT SYSTEM COULD
IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR MOUNTAINS AND DESERT LOCATIONS.

BY SATURDAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FULLY SEEDED AND MOIST AT ALL
LEVELS. THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE ONLY CAVEAT WITH FORECAST IS IF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EITHER ACTS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OR IF
THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH MID AND HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS TO PREVENT DIURNAL
HEATING. EITHER ONE OF THE THOSE SITUATIONS WOULD HINDER SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1.25.

FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK THE MARINE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL
CONTINUE...PRODUCING NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE
COASTAL MESAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MONSOONAL CLOUDS...THIS LAYER BE PATCHY AT BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...LOWING BACK TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
Quoting Jedkins01:
The reason why Arthur wasn't the greatest rain maker is that it had weaker convection than usual and overall less heavy rain bands than usual, which might be why despite looking very organized on satellite, it took recon a while to see real intensification, and it was also small and fast moving. Most heavy rain cores probably only lasted for 10 minutes or so.

I know from first experience on how convective intensity can really impact wind strength. When hurricane Frances cut across Central Florida in 2004, we had hours of wind gusts only 40-45 mph as it was cutting across despite getting close to the center of circulation. However, as it hit the gulf the next day, even though pressures rose and max winds were found less from traversing the state, wind got much stronger here as a large area of deep convection developed off the gulf as winds veered southwest. Wind reports increased dramatically as strong convective bands developed. Wind speed increased and we ended up having hours of sustained winds of 45-55 mph and gusts as high as 65-75 mph at peak. Also, from Frances making landfall up until reaching the FL west coast, rainfall was only 1-2 inches from just hours of steady stratiform rain. However, rainfall the next day was between 5-10 inches with even isolated heavy totals, I ended up with just under 12 inches, and substantial wind damage in my neighborhood with 3 homes that had roof failure, about 12 hours without power, trees and power lines down here and there, and mess of small debris like small branches and leaves everywhere.

My point is that the storm was unimpressive until deeper convection developed the next day with the onshore flow, then in got much worse, more than we expected. The deeper convection was able to bring down the stronger winds that were just above the very surface. It makes since that maximum sustained surface winds over ocean don't translate to the surface due to friction, the winds naturally want to lift just above the surface. However, deeper convection can help bring that back down to the surface over land areas.

Hurricane Charley was a great example of this, Charley had an extremely intense ring of eyewall convection, which allowed it to intensify so rapidly, but also allowed the full power of the hurricane to actually get translated down to the surface. The result was substantial structural damage to many places in the path, and locally extreme damage, even causing notable damage to stronger built structures and complete destruction of weaker buildings. After going down to help with damage cleanup, it looked more like a tornado had hit.

The severe damage continued well inland, even up through Polk County. Charley was able to deliver stronger winds well inland thanks to very strong eyewall convection that persisted even as it came through Orlando.


This may help explain the lack of wind and wind damage living up to the strength of Arthur, although I am not fully sure, so I don't claim that its fact.

Still though, I did some analysis of Arthur and found that deep layer tropical moisture did not extend very far out from Aurthur, in other words, its tropical cyclone moisture radius was not very large. The air got rapidly drier not far from the inner core. Its possible that the close proximity to drier air allowed at least a shallow dry layer to frequently penetrate into the inner core and eyewall convection, causing Arthur to struggle.

The difficulty is that its hard to know for sure if this was the case, as it only takes a very small dry layer to penetrate to cause problems for a tropical system even if overall the airmass is very moist. This is since tropical cyclones rely on the release of latent heat into the air. Any layer of air that is less than ideal in terms of moisture can mean evaporative cooling, which can cause convection in a tropical system to either weaken or die completely.
I think Arthur's impressive eye and eyewall structure, and impressive outflow was what allowed it to still strengthen. My guess is that if Arthur had a larger moisture field and stronger deeper convection, it would have deepened much faster and much stronger winds, and surge could have been the result.

I could be wrong, but that's my best take on Arthur.


This meshes with my Sandy experience in the DC area. Very strong winds witn an intense pressure gradient were progged over our area. The pressure gradient verified.. the winds.. not so much (fortunately)

We were expecting tremendous tree damage and general loss of power to the majority of the area as happened with Isabel. This did not happen. Instead of sustained 45-50 kt winds with gusts to 70, we got sustained 25-35 knot winds with (a few) gusts to 60.

With most landfalling tropical cyclones a larger fraction of the gradient wind speed verifies. What happened this time though is that the sounding was statified and stable to 850mb, typical of a cool season precip event in the Cold Conveyor Belt (which we were in). Because of the stratification we had less mixing than we usually get with a TC.
We got 6" of rain areawide from Sandy. However there was little flash flooding because it came as 1/3"/hour for 18 hours.
North and west of us in Western MD, an epic (several feet) snowfall occurred
We had gusts to 99mph here on Ocracoke
Quoting Cregnebaa:
The main reason the wind speed reports were a lot less than 100mph, is that the hurricane passed to the right of land, the weaker side of the storm. The storm is moving 25 mph, so if the top winds are to the right of the storm are 100mph those on the left will be around 50mph (ie actual winds if storm was stationary would be 75mph then add forward movement of 25 mph and you get max winds of 100mph on the east, and 50 on the left.


Watch the radar loop.
The eastern eye wall was completely onshore with the western eye wall well inland.
The complete eye of the system was west of the Outerbanks for a few hours.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM3WcqE_8Zo

Storms that spin up off Florida are fundamentally different from MDR hurricanes that have ten~ days to grow and push a good chunk of the Atlantic ahead of them. Likewise, Bay of Campeche hurricanes are different from ones that form in the Caribbean and churn up a huge part of the GOM before landfall. The components are different: wind, surge, shear, kinetic energy, time to build/sustain convection, geography, and so on. It makes sense to me to compare Arthur to Alex '04, but comparing Arthur to an MDR storm is like apples and oranges. Totally different species.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


This meshes with my Sandy experience in the DC area. Very strong winds witn an intense pressure gradient were progged over our area. The pressure gradient verified.. the winds.. not so much (fortunately)

We were expecting tremendous tree damage and general loss of power to the majority of the area as happened with Isabel. This did not happen. Instead of sustained 45-50 kt winds with gusts to 70, we got sustained 25-35 knot winds with (a few) gusts to 60.

With most landfalling tropical cyclones a larger fraction of the gradient wind speed verifies. What happened this time though is that the sounding was statified and stable to 850mb, typical of a cool season precip event in the Cold Conveyor Belt (which we were in). Because of the stratification we had less mixing than we usually get with a TC.
We got 6" of rain areawide from Sandy. However there was little flash flooding because it came as 1/3"/hour for 18 hours.
North and west of us in Western MD, an epic (several feet) snowfall occurred


The DC area has not had a hurricane strength TC pass through since Hazel in 1954 which produced the strongest gust observed to date at DCA (98mph). If we had another Hazel, the impact would be far worse because we're much more built out now and the trees are older also. It would be much more devastating than either Isabel, or the DC Derecho of 2012.

And another thing to consider. A NNW track with a cat 2 would drive a 6-10 foot storm surge up the Potomac. This has not been observed since DC was built in the late 1700s. The Potomac is tidal up to Key Bridge (NW DC) at least.
Happy 4th of July everyone! Hope you all have a great day, enjoy!
Best guess the lack of any Category 2 winds were because the winds were in a very narrow and limited region of the eyewall based off hurricane hunters. You really can't sample the entire storm like recon can. However, Jeff P.'s stream last night was definitely getting some 75-80kt winds, and there were a few 85kt gusts recorded. It wouldn't surprise me if there were some brief 85kt sustained winds that went unmeasured on the ground.
Quoting 37. Jedkins01:

The reason why Arthur wasn't the greatest rain maker is that it had weaker convection than usual and overall less heavy rain bands than usual, which might be why despite looking very organized on satellite, it took recon a while to see real intensification, and it was also small and fast moving. Most heavy rain cores probably only lasted for 10 minutes or so.

I know from first experience on how convective intensity can really impact wind strength. When hurricane Frances cut across Central Florida in 2004, we had hours of wind gusts only 40-45 mph as it was cutting across despite getting close to the center of circulation. However, as it hit the gulf the next day, even though pressures rose and max winds were found less from traversing the state, wind got much stronger here as a large area of deep convection developed off the gulf as winds veered southwest. Wind reports increased dramatically as strong convective bands developed. Wind speed increased and we ended up having hours of sustained winds of 45-55 mph and gusts as high as 65-75 mph at peak. Also, from Frances making landfall up until reaching the FL west coast, rainfall was only 1-2 inches from just hours of steady stratiform rain. However, rainfall the next day was between 5-10 inches with even isolated heavy totals, I ended up with just under 12 inches, and substantial wind damage in my neighborhood with 3 homes that had roof failure, about 12 hours without power, trees and power lines down here and there, and mess of small debris like small branches and leaves everywhere.

My point is that the storm was unimpressive until deeper convection developed the next day with the onshore flow, then in got much worse, more than we expected. The deeper convection was able to bring down the stronger winds that were just above the very surface. It makes since that maximum sustained surface winds over ocean don't translate to the surface due to friction, the winds naturally want to lift just above the surface. However, deeper convection can help bring that back down to the surface over land areas.

Hurricane Charley was a great example of this, Charley had an extremely intense ring of eyewall convection, which allowed it to intensify so rapidly, but also allowed the full power of the hurricane to actually get translated down to the surface. The result was substantial structural damage to many places in the path, and locally extreme damage, even causing notable damage to stronger built structures and complete destruction of weaker buildings. After going down to help with damage cleanup, it looked more like a tornado had hit.

The severe damage continued well inland, even up through Polk County. Charley was able to deliver stronger winds well inland thanks to very strong eyewall convection that persisted even as it came through Orlando.


This may help explain the lack of wind and wind damage living up to the strength of Arthur, although I am not fully sure, so I don't claim that its fact.

Still though, I did some analysis of Arthur and found that deep layer tropical moisture did not extend very far out from Aurthur, in other words, its tropical cyclone moisture radius was not very large. The air got rapidly drier not far from the inner core. Its possible that the close proximity to drier air allowed at least a shallow dry layer to frequently penetrate into the inner core and eyewall convection, causing Arthur to struggle.

The difficulty is that its hard to know for sure if this was the case, as it only takes a very small dry layer to penetrate to cause problems for a tropical system even if overall the airmass is very moist. This is since tropical cyclones rely on the release of latent heat into the air. Any layer of air that is less than ideal in terms of moisture can mean evaporative cooling, which can cause convection in a tropical system to either weaken or die completely.
I think Arthur's impressive eye and eyewall structure, and impressive outflow was what allowed it to still strengthen. My guess is that if Arthur had a larger moisture field and stronger deeper convection, it would have deepened much faster and much stronger winds, and surge could have been the result.

I could be wrong, but that's my best take on Arthur.


End Jedkins quote, George Vandenberghe comment follows


Kate in 1985 made landfall near Mexico Beach and passed slightly to the NW of Tallahassee. Unfortunately I was there (other people may chase severe weather.. I run from it). An intense rainband passed just to the north of TLH metro and the convection within mixed the cat2 winds to the surface, produced downbursts and also a few weak tornadoes. Everybody in the metro area got cat1 sustained winds and the northern part got solid 90mph gusts. TLH looked like a war zone the next morning. Power was out in metro for a day but was out for up to a week in the northern suburbs.

12z run of ECMWF got 892 mb (!!!) and 850 mb max winds of 169.4 knots (!!!) for Neoguri.
Quoting 37. Jedkins01:

The reason why Arthur wasn't the greatest rain maker is that it had weaker convection than usual and overall less heavy rain bands than usual, which might be why despite looking very organized on satellite, it took recon a while to see real intensification, and it was also small and fast moving. Most heavy rain cores probably only lasted for 10 minutes or so.

I know from first experience on how convective intensity can really impact wind strength. When hurricane Frances cut across Central Florida in 2004, we had hours of wind gusts only 40-45 mph as it was cutting across despite getting close to the center of circulation. However, as it hit the gulf the next day, even though pressures rose and max winds were found less from traversing the state, wind got much stronger here as a large area of deep convection developed off the gulf as winds veered southwest. Wind reports increased dramatically as strong convective bands developed. Wind speed increased and we ended up having hours of sustained winds of 45-55 mph and gusts as high as 65-75 mph at peak. Also, from Frances making landfall up until reaching the FL west coast, rainfall was only 1-2 inches from just hours of steady stratiform rain. However, rainfall the next day was between 5-10 inches with even isolated heavy totals, I ended up with just under 12 inches, and substantial wind damage in my neighborhood with 3 homes that had roof failure, about 12 hours without power, trees and power lines down here and there, and mess of small debris like small branches and leaves everywhere.

My point is that the storm was unimpressive until deeper convection developed the next day with the onshore flow, then in got much worse, more than we expected. The deeper convection was able to bring down the stronger winds that were just above the very surface. It makes since that maximum sustained surface winds over ocean don't translate to the surface due to friction, the winds naturally want to lift just above the surface. However, deeper convection can help bring that back down to the surface over land areas.

Hurricane Charley was a great example of this, Charley had an extremely intense ring of eyewall convection, which allowed it to intensify so rapidly, but also allowed the full power of the hurricane to actually get translated down to the surface. The result was substantial structural damage to many places in the path, and locally extreme damage, even causing notable damage to stronger built structures and complete destruction of weaker buildings. After going down to help with damage cleanup, it looked more like a tornado had hit.

The severe damage continued well inland, even up through Polk County. Charley was able to deliver stronger winds well inland thanks to very strong eyewall convection that persisted even as it came through Orlando.


This may help explain the lack of wind and wind damage living up to the strength of Arthur, although I am not fully sure, so I don't claim that its fact.

Still though, I did some analysis of Arthur and found that deep layer tropical moisture did not extend very far out from Aurthur, in other words, its tropical cyclone moisture radius was not very large. The air got rapidly drier not far from the inner core. Its possible that the close proximity to drier air allowed at least a shallow dry layer to frequently penetrate into the inner core and eyewall convection, causing Arthur to struggle.

The difficulty is that its hard to know for sure if this was the case, as it only takes a very small dry layer to penetrate to cause problems for a tropical system even if overall the airmass is very moist. This is since tropical cyclones rely on the release of latent heat into the air. Any layer of air that is less than ideal in terms of moisture can mean evaporative cooling, which can cause convection in a tropical system to either weaken or die completely.
I think Arthur's impressive eye and eyewall structure, and impressive outflow was what allowed it to still strengthen. My guess is that if Arthur had a larger moisture field and stronger deeper convection, it would have deepened much faster and much stronger winds, and surge could have been the result.

I could be wrong, but that's my best take on Arthur.



That makes complete and utter sense to me, explained in such a way that an enthusiast who's not super-scientifically inclined in terms of what's what can understand. Arthur was a category 2 technically although those winds never really materialized due to consistent dry air infiltrating and weakening the convection that otherwise would've translated that wind to the surface. Yup. Makes sense to me.

Arthur's overall organization and ability to even achieve the status that it did even through the dry air bombardment I guess is a testament to how strong he could have actually been if the atmospheric conditions were that of 2008, or 2011, heck even 2005 (shudder). Since stable air has been running pretty rampant over the Atlantic basin since 2012 I'd argue, I'm thinking we won't be seeing another big year until that mixes out, which could take a lot of time.

I know from first experience on how convective intensity can really impact wind strength. When hurricane Frances cut across Central Florida in 2004, we had hours of wind gusts only 40-45 mph as it was cutting across despite getting close to the center of circulation. However, as it hit the gulf the next day, even though pressures rose and max winds were found less from traversing the state, wind got much stronger here as a large area of deep convection developed off the gulf as winds veered southwest. Wind reports increased dramatically as strong convective bands developed. Wind speed increased and we ended up having hours of sustained winds of 45-55 mph and gusts as high as 65-75 mph at peak.

Jedkins, You are spot on. I went to bed late thinking the worst was over. And was shocked at how intense in was in the morning when that band developed over the Eastern GOM and moved over our area.
I just hope people don't use this storm as their baseline for CAT2 Hurricanes.

A lot of people decided to stay on the Island despite mandatory evacuations. Today, they are glad they did. Fox News showed people setting up beach chairs and enjoying their Friday out on the beach.

This scares me. The next time there's a CAT2 making landfall in the U.S. things might not go so well.
Not a cloud in the sky...
Possibly of interest to some people.
I just saw on the European news that there are big dust/sand storms raging in Oklahoma.

Very good news about the lack of any casualties so far with the hurricane, the only possible concern is that there might be complacency about warnings in the future after a lot of people decided not to evacuate the outer banks.

still a good sized storm...
im surprised that at least tropical storm watches aren't up for maine
Just got done getting an inventory of the plywood we have for the house in the event I have to put them up by myself while the rest of my family is on vacation! Still have to cut some for the addition that's been added to our house since the last storm.
0% chances of rain.... yuck

all the plants are suffering

There it is?
A low grade tropical storm WITHOUT lacking convection would be good for my area right now..
Even though it was of similar intensity and weakening like Opal and Dennis, hurricane Ivan's wind damage was very bad. It however, maintained very robust convection. It's all about the convection!
Quoting 58. CybrTeddy:

Best guess the lack of any Category 2 winds were because the winds were in a very narrow and limited region of the eyewall based off hurricane hunters. You really can't sample the entire storm like recon can. However, Jeff P.'s stream last night was definitely getting some 75-80kt winds, and there were a few 85kt gusts recorded. It wouldn't surprise me if there were some brief 85kt sustained winds that went unmeasured on the ground.


I haven't seen any damage that would scream cat 2. I agree, the hh's did measure winds of this strength and likely they were small geographically. Damage though has been very meager for a Cat 2. I posted a population density map yesterday. The area Arthur traversed is pretty sparse, but with technology today... This storm still reminds me of Ingrid. They measured quite high winds in it and nothing much (wind-wise) seemed to transpire to the actual surface winds upon landfall. I am absolutely not saying NHC is purposely overstating winds or hyping them. What I do feel is that storms have not been behaving as usual as they once did. That's all I got for now, if you respond, I'll continue.
Quoting 50. Cregnebaa:

The main reason the wind speed reports were a lot less than 100mph, is that the hurricane passed to the right of land, the weaker side of the storm. The storm is moving 25 mph, so if the top winds are to the right of the storm are 100mph those on the left will be around 50mph (ie actual winds if storm was stationary would be 75mph then add forward movement of 25 mph and you get max winds of 100mph on the east, and 50 on the left.


That's not accurate. The eye past over Cape Fear there is a lot of real estate to the east of there.
Quoting 74. opal92nwf:

Even though it was of similar intensity and weakening like Opal and Dennis, hurricane Ivan's wind damage was very bad. It however, maintained very robust convection. It's all about the convection!



Dennis was the worst for us over here in Destin. It ripped off every roof in my neighborhood. Thankfully I wasn't here yet. My neighbor said he stayed for Dennis because he made it okay through Ivan. He said about an hour in he was wishing he had evacuated.
Arthur~ click pic for loop.
Quoting 67. PlazaRed:

Possibly of interest to some people.
I just saw on the European news that there are big dust/sand storms raging in Oklahoma.

Very good news about the lack of any casualties so far with the hurricane, the only possible concern is that there might be complacency about warnings in the future after a lot of people decided not to evacuate the outer banks.

Do you have a link to that story? I can't find it anywhere, what station did you see it on.
I dont think people realize how strong Miami area hurricanes "feel" they dont really weaken as they tap into the moisture of the everglades, atlantic or gulf. By way of example TS Fay got stronger over the glades
Quoting 46. HurriHistory:

Yes, Hurricane Cleo which hit Miami Beach on August 27, 1964 as a cat-2 came ashore like a strong cat-3.
Quoting HurriHistory:
Yes, Hurricane Cleo which hit Miami Beach on August 27, 1964 as a cat-2 came ashore like a strong cat-3.
How about "cat-1 storms [that] come ashore like they were cat-4s knocking down every palm tree in site."
Quoting 37. Jedkins01:

The reason why Arthur wasn't the greatest rain maker is that it had weaker convection than usual and overall less heavy rain bands than usual, which might be why despite looking very organized on satellite, it took recon a while to see real intensification, and it was also small and fast moving. Most heavy rain cores probably only lasted for 10 minutes or so.

I know from first experience on how convective intensity can really impact wind strength. When hurricane Frances cut across Central Florida in 2004, we had hours of wind gusts only 40-45 mph as it was cutting across despite getting close to the center of circulation. However, as it hit the gulf the next day, even though pressures rose and max winds were found less from traversing the state, wind got much stronger here as a large area of deep convection developed off the gulf as winds veered southwest. Wind reports increased dramatically as strong convective bands developed. Wind speed increased and we ended up having hours of sustained winds of 45-55 mph and gusts as high as 65-75 mph at peak. Also, from Frances making landfall up until reaching the FL west coast, rainfall was only 1-2 inches from just hours of steady stratiform rain. However, rainfall the next day was between 5-10 inches with even isolated heavy totals, I ended up with just under 12 inches, and substantial wind damage in my neighborhood with 3 homes that had roof failure, about 12 hours without power, trees and power lines down here and there, and mess of small debris like small branches and leaves everywhere.

My point is that the storm was unimpressive until deeper convection developed the next day with the onshore flow, then in got much worse, more than we expected. The deeper convection was able to bring down the stronger winds that were just above the very surface. It makes since that maximum sustained surface winds over ocean don't translate to the surface due to friction, the winds naturally want to lift just above the surface. However, deeper convection can help bring that back down to the surface over land areas.

Hurricane Charley was a great example of this, Charley had an extremely intense ring of eyewall convection, which allowed it to intensify so rapidly, but also allowed the full power of the hurricane to actually get translated down to the surface. The result was substantial structural damage to many places in the path, and locally extreme damage, even causing notable damage to stronger built structures and complete destruction of weaker buildings. After going down to help with damage cleanup, it looked more like a tornado had hit.

The severe damage continued well inland, even up through Polk County. Charley was able to deliver stronger winds well inland thanks to very strong eyewall convection that persisted even as it came through Orlando.


This may help explain the lack of wind and wind damage living up to the strength of Arthur, although I am not fully sure, so I don't claim that its fact.

Still though, I did some analysis of Arthur and found that deep layer tropical moisture did not extend very far out from Aurthur, in other words, its tropical cyclone moisture radius was not very large. The air got rapidly drier not far from the inner core. Its possible that the close proximity to drier air allowed at least a shallow dry layer to frequently penetrate into the inner core and eyewall convection, causing Arthur to struggle.

The difficulty is that its hard to know for sure if this was the case, as it only takes a very small dry layer to penetrate to cause problems for a tropical system even if overall the airmass is very moist. This is since tropical cyclones rely on the release of latent heat into the air. Any layer of air that is less than ideal in terms of moisture can mean evaporative cooling, which can cause convection in a tropical system to either weaken or die completely.
I think Arthur's impressive eye and eyewall structure, and impressive outflow was what allowed it to still strengthen. My guess is that if Arthur had a larger moisture field and stronger deeper convection, it would have deepened much faster and much stronger winds, and surge could have been the result.

I could be wrong, but that's my best take on Arthur.



I forgot to make it clear to readers. This is a very sound and clear analysis of the situation. Thanks
A couple of things in this image that are interesting. First is that long cloud line just east of Lesser Antilles is a wave that may bring some needed rains for some of the islands that are on deficit of precipitation so far this year including Puerto Rico,St Barts and other islands.Second is a naked circulation around 7N-38W but of course nothing will occur with it with the Sal around.

Quoting 79. PedleyCA:


Do you have a link to that story? I can't find it anywhere, what station did you see it on.


May have ment Phoenix
Happy 4th of July!
Looks like a heavy band by Arthur is setting up over Mass. and Rhode Island.. Risk of flash flooding increasing..
Quoting 84. nrtiwlnvragn:



May have ment Phoenix


Works for me.....
Quoting GatorWX:


I haven't seen any damage that would scream cat 2. I agree, the hh's did measure winds of this strength and likely they were small geographically. Damage though has been very meager for a Cat 2. I posted a population density map yesterday. The area Arthur traversed is pretty sparse, but with technology today... This storm still reminds me of Ingrid. They measured quite high winds in it and nothing much (wind-wise) seemed to transpire to the actual surface winds upon landfall. I am absolutely not saying NHC is purposely overstating winds or hyping them. What I do feel is that storms have not been behaving as usual as they once did. That's all I got for now, if you respond, I'll continue.


I recall this being quite a common thing with US landfalls, so I don't think it's a fault with Arthur. More often than not, the recon will find the data that supports a particular strength but on the ground, obs are usually 10-15mph lower in intensity. It's been such a long time since we've seen a US landfall of this magnitude that I'd forgotten about that.
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 12:53 PM PDT on July 04, 2014
Clear
95 °F
Clear
Humidity: 33%
Dew Point: 62 °F

Wind: 15 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 25 mph
Pressure: 29.90 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 96 °F
91.6F at my place.
Quoting 87. PedleyCA:



Works for me.....



Every time I see this commercial it reminds me of your Portrait

Link
Quoting 90. nrtiwlnvragn:



Every time I see this commercial it reminds me of your Portrait

Link


I don't believe I have seen that one.
Quoting 68. PedleyCA:


still a good sized storm...
that area Southeast coast looks interesting.
Quoting 77. csmda:



Dennis was the worst for us over here in Destin. It ripped off every roof in my neighborhood. Thankfully I wasn't here yet. My neighbor said he stayed for Dennis because he made it okay through Ivan. He said about an hour in he was wishing he had evacuated.

There may have been worse pockets, but from what I have gathered, Dennis's winds were much less worse than Ivan. TWC coverage with Mike Bettes in Destin was extremely underwhelming as he even exclaimed how lucky they had been.

Also, Ivan caused worse wind damage farther away from its center than Dennis.
Thanks for the update and review, Dr Jeff.
Glad that overall NC residents fared well with Arthur.

"Here are the top winds measured in North Carolina from Arthur:
Cape Lookout CMAN, 71 mph gusting to 84 mph at 10 pm (though NHC reported that this station had sustained winds of 77 mph, gusting to 101 mph between the regular hourly reporting times)"


Yep, had to dig a bit finding it%u2026

from: NDBC data for past 24 hours - http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/hourly2/
Station CLKN7 - Cape Lookout NC, Z hour selection July 4 2014, Continuous wind data in meters per second (m/s)
Legend -
#STN YY MM DD hh mm WDIR WSPD GDR GST GTIME
#txt yr mo dy hr mn degT m/s degT m/s hhmm

Hour 02Z readout summary -
CLKN7 2014 07 04 02 50 132 25.7 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 02 40 121 34.0 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 02 30 120 34.5 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 02 20 122 34.5 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 02 10 124 32.9 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 02 00 127 30.4 130 37.6 0158

peak gust @ 0158Z - 37.6 m/s = 84.11 mph%u2026 period continuous wind reading - 30.4 m/s = 68 mph
Hour 02Z highest continuous wind - 34.5 m/s = 77.17 mph

Hour 03Z readout summary -
CLKN7 2014 07 04 03 50 266 23.7 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 03 40 256 13.4 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 03 30 238 8.8 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 03 20 209 6.7 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 03 10 160 11.3 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 03 00 154 14.9 120 45.3 0214

peak gust @ 0214Z - 45.3 m/s = 101.3 mph%u2026 period continuous wind reading - 14.9 m/s = 33.3 mph
Hour 03Z highest continuous wind - 23.7 m/s = 53.02 mph

Hour 04Z readout summary -
CLKN7 2014 07 04 04 50 246 23.7 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 04 40 247 25.7 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 04 30 250 26.8 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 04 20 251 29.3 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 04 10 253 31.9 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 04 00 260 30.9 260 40.2 0356

peak gust @ 0356Z - 40.2 m/s = 89.92 mph%u2026 period continuous wind reading - 30.9 m/s = 69.12 mph
Hour 04Z highest continuous wind - 31.9 m/s = 71.36 mph

Hour 05Z readout summary -
CLKN7 2014 07 04 05 50 243 20.6 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 05 40 245 21.6 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 05 30 246 21.1 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 05 20 247 22.1 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 05 10 246 22.7 999 99.0 9999
CLKN7 2014 07 04 05 00 246 23.7 250 40.2 0401

peak gust @ 0401Z - 40.2 m/s = 89.92 mph%u2026 period continuous wind reading - 23.7 m/s = 53.02 mph
Hour 05Z highest cont wind - 23.7 m/s = 53.02 mph

Quoting 79. PedleyCA:


Do you have a link to that story? I can't find it anywhere, what station did you see it on.

I saw it on TVE 1 Espana.
Spanish TV national 1,
Cant help more than that but it showed very high dust clouds, possibly up to 1000 feet and they said winds of 80 KPH or 50 MPH to us.
It was in the headlines along with the hurricane news.
Maybe some Oklahoma TV stations may have news of it.
Quoting 65. Sfloridacat5:

I just hope people don't use this storm as their baseline for CAT2 Hurricanes.

A lot of people decided to stay on the Island despite mandatory evacuations. Today, they are glad they did. Fox News showed people setting up beach chairs and enjoying their Friday out on the beach.

This scares me. The next time there's a CAT2 making landfall in the U.S. things might not go so well.



Yeah it sets a very bad precedent.
Quoting 24. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Here it comes, here it comes, here it comes, here it comes
Here comes your nineteenth nervous breakdown



My father perfected sealing wax! Never fails in shipment. Goin Home, from Aftermath would be another good one...no? Great album nonetheless. Greatest rock and roll band in the world. Sorry Pat, your boys broke up. :p
Quoting 83. Tropicsweatherpr:

A couple of things in this image that are interesting. First is that long cloud line just east of Lesser Antilles is a wave that may bring some needed rains for some of the islands that are on deficit of precipitation so far this year including Puerto Rico,St Barts and other islands.Second is a naked circulation around 7N-38W but of course nothing will occur with it with the Sal around.


At what time will the Twave arrive? We need it at noon!
Any reports of flooding in Mass. ?
GFS thinks Neoguri is going to be a monster in a couple days.

Quoting 98. GatorWX:



My mather perfected sealing wax! Never fails in shipment. Goin Home, from Aftermath would be another good one...no? Great album nonetheless.


My thought exactly...

The wave won't help much with accumulation:
THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY A GENERALLY DRY...HAZY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL AGAIN ENCOMPASS THE REGION. -_-
Quoting 96. NCHurricane2009:

Just did another blog update on Arthur and the Atlantic tropics while on vacation in a hotel in Spain...

Well done.
How are you finding the weather here now?
We had massive storms over the last week in the northern parts and today there was a lot of flooding up near France in the Basque country.
33/C here today and continuing all through the next few days with no rain in the south,
Quoting 101. TimSoCal:

GFS thinks Neoguri is going to be a monster in a couple days.


I guess he is the one ;)
I've been getting steady rain all day from the combination of Arthur and this front, but the Inch or so I've picked up is nothing compared with areas just 30 miles or so southeast of me, where New Bedford, MA has picked up around 5" of rain so far. With a very heavy band continuing to sit over that area, the NWS is expecting a total of about 8-10" of rain for that localized region. Could create a very serious situation, some of those areas are pretty low lying and prone to flooding. Just as I type this, a flash flood emergency has been declared for the New Bedford area.
Typhoon Neoguri is going to be a big threat to Okinawa.

RI
Quoting 99. Gearsts:

At what time will the Twave arrive? We need it at noon!


TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 23
MPH...AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN SAINT CROIX AND SAINT JOHN BY NOON AST
SATURDAY AND BY 3 PM AST IN SAN JUAN. NAM5 MODEL SHOWS SQUALLY
WEATHER WITH THE BAND AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREATER
SAN JUAN METRO AREA AT ABOUT 2 PM AST AND SUGGESTS GOOD TIMING ON
THE PART OF THE MODEL
Flash Flood Emergency for New Bedford and Fairhaven in Massachusetts.
Quoting 80. doabarrelroll:

I dont think people realize how strong Miami area hurricanes "feel" they dont really weaken as they tap into the moisture of the everglades, atlantic or gulf. By way of example TS Fay got stronger over the glades

I totally agree with you. Most tropical cyclones that hit South Florida tend to be stronger then the one's that strike the Carolina coast. There's more energy to feed off of around South Florida. Most of the Carolina coast only felt the weaker side of Arthur hence the lighter wind reports.
Quoting AllStar17:
Flash Flood Emergency for New Bedford and Fairhaven in Massachusetts.


I have been watching it develop on radar, and it's not budging at all.
Clouds starting to build over the spine of Southern California's mountains......and just heard the rumble of thunder. Hope it rains!



And this from National Weather Service San Diego:
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
121 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014

CAZ048-055-056-042115-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS -THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
121 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014

.NOW...

AT 113 PM...HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN FOREST FALLS AND YUCAIPA. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS NEARLY STATIONARY STORM. OAK GLEN ROAD MAY BE
IMPACTED PONDING OF WATER AND LOWER VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN.

We just need them to start firing further south!
114. VR46L
Quoting 101. TimSoCal:

GFS thinks Neoguri is going to be a monster in a couple days.




Looks pretty Ferocious now....



115. wxmod
This is a readout from a buoy in the arctic near the north pole. I'm having a little trouble believing these readings. Almost 68 degrees F.




Mo/Day/Hour Latitude Longitude Pressure Temperature


07/04/1200Z 86.006°N 87.254°W 14.4°C 1019.9mb
07/04/1100Z 86.006°N 87.260°W 14.1°C 1020.1mb
07/04/1000Z 86.006°N 87.265°W 13.4°C 1020.4mb
07/04/0900Z 86.007°N 87.271°W 14.2°C 1020.6mb
07/04/0800Z 86.007°N 87.277°W 17.4°C 1020.8mb
07/04/0700Z 86.008°N 87.284°W 19.0°C 1021.0mb
07/04/0600Z 86.008°N 87.293°W 19.7°C 1021.3mb
07/04/0500Z 86.009°N 87.305°W 19.8°C 1021.5mb
07/04/0400Z 86.010°N 87.319°W 18.6°C 1021.8mb
07/04/0300Z 86.011°N 87.334°W 17.7°C 1022.0mb
07/04/0200Z 86.012°N 87.352°W 15.9°C 1022.3mb
07/04/0100Z 86.012°N 87.369°W 17.8°C 1022.5mb
07/04/0000Z 86.013°N 87.384°W 17.8°C 1022.7mb
07/03/2300Z 86.014°N 87.396°W 17.2°C 1023.0mb
07/03/2200Z 86.015°N 87.401°W 15.3°C 1023.2mb
07/03/2100Z 86.015°N 87.402°W 12.8°C 1023.3mb
07/03/2000Z 86.016°N 87.401°W 14.4°C 1023.3mb
07/03/1900Z 86.017°N 87.399°W 14.5°C 1023.4mb
07/03/1800Z 86.017°N 87.401°W 15.0°C 1023.5mb
07/03/1700Z 86.018°N 87.404°W 13.5°C 1023.5mb
Quoting 108. Gearsts:

RI



Explosive Intensification.
Me thinks after review they will have to drop this storm from CAT2 to a Cat1 ..... I am just stopping in for a minute so just read/ignore but I will not be here to respond.... IMO this storm was a minimal CAT 1 Forget satelite and review the RADAR loops there is no way this was a cat 2... I would hate for folks to think "hey, that was not bad. I can ride out the next storm." Family is waiting.... Happy 4th folks!
T201408 NEOGURI (Florita)

2014JUL04 193200 5.1 954.2 +2.8 92.4

Dvorak Intensity
Initial 5.1 Adjusted 6.3 Raw 7.0
119. VR46L
Quoting 113. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Clouds starting to build over the spine of Southern California......and just heard the rumble of thunder. Hope it rains!



And this from National Weather Service San Diego:
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
121 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014

CAZ048-055-056-042115-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS -THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
121 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2014

.NOW...

AT 113 PM...HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN FOREST FALLS AND YUCAIPA. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS NEARLY STATIONARY STORM. OAK GLEN ROAD MAY BE
IMPACTED PONDING OF WATER AND LOWER VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN.

We just need them to start firing further south!


TVN are streaming expecting storms Link
I'm hearing widely spaced raindrops on my awning!
Quoting 114. VR46L:



Looks pretty Ferocious now....






CDO has to get about 4x larger in area to match the forecast though.
Quoting 118. HadesGodWyvern:

T201408 NEOGURI (Florita)

2014JUL04 193200 5.1 954.2 +2.8 92.4

Dvorak Intensity
Initial 5.1 Adjusted 6.3 Raw 7.0

Yikes. This will likely be one for the books. Consider the fact that it could be approaching Cat 5 intensity in 12 hours and still has three days over conditions very conducive for intensification. I hate to be the one to ask this, because I don't want this to become the question with every single impressive storm out there, but... could this rival Haiyan in terms of intensity? I don't see why not. It really is a pretty special circumstance, conditions are just perfect and they have not been tapped into yet this year, we've all been wondering when this basin would wake up. The ECMWF continues to suggest it'll drop below 900mb. Obviously it would not maintain such an intensity as far north as Japan, but I could see winds on this peaking at 180mph. Perhaps a bit higher.
Quoting 119. VR46L:



TVN are streaming expecting storms Link


Chaser Nick is about 15 minutes from my place. Hes near Lake Henshaw. Those 2 storms closest to him are near me. One is 9 miles away and the other just nearby.

Hurricane Arthur Graphics Update (5:00 pm Advisory - click to enlarge)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yikes. This will likely be one for the books. Consider the fact that it could be approaching Cat 5 intensity in 12 hours and still has three days over conditions very conducive for intensification. I hate to be the one to ask this, because I don't want this to become the question with every single impressive storm out there, but... could this rival Haiyan in terms of intensity? I don't see why not. It really is a pretty special circumstance, conditions are just perfect and they have not been tapped into yet this year, we've all been wondering when this basin would wake up. The ECMWF continues to suggest it'll drop below 900mb. Obviously it would not maintain such an intensity as far north as Japan, but I could see winds on this peaking at 180mph. Perhaps a bit higher.


Haiyan was the single most impressive tropical cyclone I've ever tracked, and this one will be well away from any major landmass if it does indeed become a system that powerful, which is an added bonus. It'll be exciting to see how strong this one gets.
Quoting 125. CybrTeddy:



Haiyan was the single most impressive tropical cyclone I've ever tracked, and this one will be well away from any major landmass if it does indeed become a system that powerful, which is an added bonus. It'll be exciting to see how strong this one gets.


Haiyan was probably the most violent weather event in the modern world.
Quoting 125. CybrTeddy:



Haiyan was the single most impressive tropical cyclone I've ever tracked, and this one will be well away from any major landmass if it does indeed become a system that powerful, which is an added bonus. It'll be exciting to see how strong this one gets.

Japan and its associated islands are in the path of this, and Neoguri is expected to reach that area near or shortly after peak intensity.
That storm chaser Nick is looking north across Lake Henshaw and my house is like 5 miles as the crow flies past the lake! The few raindrops I got have stopped, but it's cloudy and temp has dropped....hope they keep firing and I get some.
Raining lightly.....just enough to wet the street so far. I want a deluge!
You can watch this storm chaser here Link Nick is his name.
The Southern Hemisphere still not giving up this year..

96S
Storms popping up across FL..

Getting alot of lightning.. 0.37" of rain so far.
The storm on the Riverside-SanDiego County line is near me

Good afternoon all, from sunny Nassau, Bahamas. It's good to see the OBX got through Arthur [or more accurately Arthur got through the OBX, lol] without causing too much disruption and mayhem. Hopefully its passage through the Canadian Maritimes will be as benign...

For those of you who were on last night when I spoke about my electricity going out - the outage was island-wide and lasted until 3:24 a.m. Reports are still sketchy, but there has been talk of sabotage to the computerized system that distributes the power throughout the island. It was pretty weird, and certainly not, as is usual, weather-related.
It won't be long, yeah, yeah, yeah til I become Typhoon Neoguri

Quoting 136. HurricaneHunterJoe:

It won't be long, yeah, yeah, yeah til I become Typhoon Neoguri





its all ready Typhoon Neoguri

Typhoon 08W

Link
I'm sorry to those good folks in cape Hatteras and the outer banks for the damage caused, I'm very thankful that Arthur didn't ramp up to a cat 3 or 4, our oaks and maples would not fair well in Nova Scotia from a strong cat 1 but hey we should be fine maybe a few minor power outages New Brunswick may have some flooding issues with Saint John River. So basically a Nor' Easter type of event were used to those lol, if it were the end of August or septemeber with peak sst's I would be a lot more concerned.
Quoting 137. Tazmanian:




its all ready Typhoon Neoguri

Typhoon 08W

Link


My bad, musta just changed? That change was pretty quick!
Quoting 127. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Japan and its associated islands are in the path of this, and Neoguri is expected to reach that area near or shortly after peak intensity.


Japan has great infrastructure though. Typhoon Danas' eye wall hit Okinawa last year at 140mph and didn't do too much damage.

But, one thing is for sure, the storm surge of this potential storm and the flooding is going to be high... Danas was moving quite quickly and was a small storm. I think this could potentially be a billion dollar disaster. Not to mention this system will likely bring heavy rain and strong winds to the Philippines and Tawain as it passes them.
Quoting 131. HurricaneHunterJoe:

You can watch this storm chaser here Link Nick is his name.

Nope that one disconnected..
On the morning of July 5th, 1968, a record low for the day was set at 54 degrees. Tonight's forecast for Nashville, TN ranges from 55-58.

Currently, it's 81 degrees F. But, it's going to get somewhat chilly tonight...and I did not bring a jacket.
Quoting 131. HurricaneHunterJoe:

You can watch this storm chaser here Link Nick is his name.


The chaser up here is going after the storms in Highland. I thought I recognized that road. Used to work up there on Tuesday....
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NEOGURI (T1408)
6:00 AM JST July 5 2014
=============================

SUBJECT: NEOGURI In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Neoguri (970 hPa) located at14.8N 138.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
270 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 17.5N 134.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 20.3N 130.8E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
69 HRS: 23.7N 128.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
Quoting 142. Astrometeor:

On the morning of July 5th, 1968, a record low for the day was set at 54 degrees. Tonight's forecast for Nashville, TN ranges from 55-58.

Currently, it's 81 degrees F. But, it's going to get somewhat chilly tonight...and I did not bring a jacket.

Interesting. I remember when I moved to Illinois from the FL Panhandle on the eve of the big canes of '04 (July) and first arriving there (across the border near St. Louis) and it was chilly. I mean not chilly in the sense of you being used to 90 deg temps and then 78 deg feels cool to you, no it was real sweater weather. It must have been low 60's or even 50's! The next two years I never experienced that much cold in the summer.

Wonder if this means the large scale weather pattern/air masses/systems/ridges/trough and such are somewhat similar to 04?
Quoting 139. HurricaneHunterJoe:



My bad, musta just changed? That change was pretty quick!


JMA upgraded to typhoon at 12:00 PM UTC (21:00 PM JST)
Quoting 133. Skyepony:

Storms popping up across FL..

Getting alot of lightning.. 0.37" of rain so far.


After well below normal rainfall for the month of June at my place (only 3.8 inches), its been a busy week over here for the first week of July. Over 3 inches of rain here this week, and really intense lightning, including a tree getting hit by lightning in the front yard of my next door neighbor's property, it knocked down a very large tree branch and left burn marks. I saw it out the window, the arc flash that close hurt my eyes pretty bad and the sound was deafening, had ringing in my ears for a while.
Quoting 133. Skyepony:

Storms popping up across FL..

Getting alot of lightning.. 0.37" of rain so far.

Good for them! NW FL is completely barren!!
Quoting 143. PedleyCA:



The chaser up here is going after the storms in Highland. I thought I recognized that road. Used to work up there on Tuesday....


That wasn't it, He's headed up the I-15 up in the Mountains. Maybe Hesperia?
Quoting 132. Skyepony:

The Southern Hemisphere still not giving up this year..

96S


earlier today....

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET July 4 2014

Zone of Disturbed Weather East of 80E :

The Low mentioned yesterday within the Near Equatorial Trough shows signs of organization over the past 24 hours. It is approximately centred at 1000Z near 8.1S/82.4E MSLP is estimated at 1002 hPa thanks to 53005 Buoy (1003.7 hPa at 0900Z).

Without recent Ascat swath, maximum winds are estimated at about 10/20kt in the northern semi- circle but probably reach 25kt and locally Near Gale Force Winds 30kt in the southern semi-circle in relationship with the gradient effect. As this Low drift slowly southwards, it becomes closer to the High Level ridge axis and takes benefit of a weakening north-easterly vertical windshear and a good poleward upper level divergence.

A subtropical ridge is expected to rebuild southwards and the Low is therefore expected to re-curve westwards on and after Saturday late. Poleward low level inflow should improve in the same time. Vertical windshear is expected to become progressively easterly and to strengthen on Sunday. There is a little window Friday and Saturday for some intensification over SST at about 27/28 °C. ECMWF ensemble shows some significant probabilities (70-80%) for tropical storm stage genesis but it is worth noting that neither

its ensemble members nor its deterministic deepen SLP below 1002 hPa

This Low remains closely monitored.

For the next 5 days, the potential for the development of a tropical depression is upgrade to
moderate Friday and Saturday and becomes Low Sunday and Very Low Monday and beyond.
Up to 5.5


TXPQ27 KNES 042119
TCSWNP

A. 08W (NEOGURI)

B. 04/2032Z

C. 14.8N

D. 138.5E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH NEOGURI... 2032Z DT
IS ELONGATED DG EYE EMBEDDED JUST BARELY INTO WHITE FOR EYE NO. OF 6.0
WITH RING OF WHITE TO ADD .5 FOR EYE ADJ. FOR CF OF 6.5. THE ELONGATION
SUBTRACTS .5 TO YIELD A DT OF 6.0. MET USING RAPID TREND IS 4.0...WHICH
IS MUCH TO LOW AND IS REJECTED. PT IS BOUND TO 4.5 PER RULES OF BEING
NO GREATER THAN .5 OVER MET WHICH ALSO MAKES IT MUCH TOO LOW AND IS
LIKEWISE REJECTED. LEAVING DT OF 6.0 WHICH WOULD BE GREATER THAN 2.0 IN
6HRS AND 3.5 IN 24HRS BUT ALSO APPEARS TO HIGH GIVEN INCONSISTENCY OF
THE EYE CAUSED BY THE STRONG CONVECTION/ANVIL EXPANSIONS FROM EYEWALL
CONVECTION INTO THE CLEARING EYE. AS A COMPROMISE THE AVERAGE DT WAS
5.5 OVER THE LAST 6HRS WAS 5.5 WHICH STILL EXCEEDS RULES BUT IS MORE IN
LINE WITH ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS SEEN IN MI AND CONVENTIONAL LOOPS. FT
IS 5.5 BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

04/1739Z 14.6N 139.3E SSMI
04/1823Z 14.7N 139.0E AMSU


...GALLINA
152. txjac
Quoting 120. HurricaneHunterJoe:

I'm hearing widely spaced raindrops on my awning!


Hi Joe ...you're making me laugh ...you get as excited about the rain like I do!
The first big fat drops that make that "plop" noise ...comforting feeling ...and they smell good too!

Enjoy your rain
Raining near Jullian, CA
Neoguri looking very good:

Quoting 154. PedleyCA:

Raining near Jullian, CA




Congrats to everyone in California who gets at least some drops! :-)
Quoting 156. barbamz:





Congrats to everyone in California who gets at least some drops! :-)

That is down by, HHJoes place. There is some rain East of me and NorthEast too.
That other chaser ended up above Victorville, there is a nice big Cell up there and I saw some raindrops on his camera.
Quoting 157. PedleyCA:


That is down by, HHJoes place. There is some rain East of me and NorthEast too.


Sure, Pedley, California is large, and only few flares to be seen .... I'm totally aware that these aren't drought busters. Just hope you may get some moisture as well.

------------

IMD: Strong monsoon revival only next week
Neha Madaan,TNN | Jul 5, 2014, 01.27 AM IST

PUNE: The monsoon may have shown its presence over some parts of the country after a long dry spell in June, but a strong revival is expected only in the second week of July.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday that the delay in the strong revival of the monsoon is due to the formation of two sets of tropical storms over northwest and northeast Pacific. The tropical storm Neoguri over northwest Pacific is dragging a substantial amount of moisture from the east Indian Ocean towards it, which is obstructing the strong revival of the monsoon.

The continuation of an intra-seasonal oscillation called MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation), which is now active over east Pacific, is not helping the matter. ...


Whole article see link above.

Monsoon in India: Drought possibility at 80%, says forecaster
PTI | New Delhi | Updated: Jul 04 2014, 21:09 IST
Did Arthur leave something behind over Fl?
The BOC is looking interesting.
Quoting congaline:
Did Arthur leave something behind over Fl?
maybe.
Quoting 127. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Japan and its associated islands are in the path of this, and Neoguri is expected to reach that area near or shortly after peak intensity.
I doubt it will maintain that intensity when it nears Japan because its not the same 32C than 26C. It will probably weaken rapidly.


929 mb peak
Nantucket getting tropical storm winds yet?
To be perfectly blunt, it would not surprise me if Typhoon Neoguri becomes among the most powerful cyclones on record in the West Pacific. There's been an exceptional reprieve from tropical cyclones in that basin so far this year, allowing sea surface temperatures to climb up to 30-32C and Ocean Heat Content to rise above average. Though an upper-level anticyclone has not yet been established, global models indicate that this will occur over the next 24 hours, keeping wind shear low. There are some signs of dry air around the system on satellite, but the storm is expected to continue northwestward into an increasingly moist environment; it should easily be mixed out.

Once all these minor quirks are worked out, Neoguri has another 48-72 hours to intensify. The ECMWF continues to forecast a sub-900 millibar tropical cyclone, while the GFS is also very bullish--929mb at peak.


167. csmda
Quoting 148. opal92nwf:


Good for them! NW FL is completely barren!!


Very dry here! But that means the beach has been beautiful most days :) Even crab island has returned to it's original color. Plus, we still have people here repairing their homes from all of the flooding we had. Thankfully our irrigation is on a well system and we don't have to pay for it, so my plants and grass are doing fairly well, they just need an extra 5 minutes of watering in each section. I also moved my potted plants over by the sprinklers so I didn't have to keep watering them.

Wish I could fill my pool with that water... we have been paying huge water bills.


Know everyone isn't paying attention to Arthur, but we're in it now. Temperature has dropped about 15 degrees in the past hour. Wind is picking up and rain intensity is increasing. I sure wish this storm was a little more to the East. It seems a bit more West than the projected path. Moving fast though, here comes another band of heavy rain.
looks like new england is getting the worst of arthur happy forth of july..landfaller1
Quoting klaatuborada:


Know everyone isn't paying attention to Arthur, but we're in it now. Temperature has dropped about 15 degrees in the past hour. Wind is picking up and rain intensity is increasing. I sure wish this storm was a little more to the East. It seems a bit more West than the projected path. Moving fast though, here comes another band of heavy rain.


How high are your winds? And do you have any flash flooding at your location?
NANTUCKET SOUND
41.443 N 70.186 W

Quoting 166. TropicalAnalystwx13:

To be perfectly blunt, it would not surprise me if Typhoon Neoguri becomes among the most powerful cyclones on record in the West Pacific. There's been an exceptional reprieve from tropical cyclones in that basin so far this year, allowing sea surface temperatures to climb up to 30-32C and Ocean Heat Content to rise above average. Though an upper-level anticyclone has not yet been established, global models indicate that this will occur over the next 24 hours, keeping wind shear low. There are some signs of dry air around the system on satellite, but the storm is expected to continue northwestward into an increasingly moist environment; it should easily be mixed out.

Once all these minor quirks are worked out, Neoguri has another 48-72 hours to intensify. The ECMWF continues to forecast a sub-900 millibar tropical cyclone, while the GFS is also very bullish--929mb at peak.


There hasn't been an "expectional reprieve" at all though. The active part of the WPAC season normally starts around this time. This year has had quite a bit of January-April activity too compared to others.

Neoguri looks like it could join the ranks of Hayain (895 mb) and Megi (885 mb) as the 3rd sub 900 mb storm of this century thus far in the Western Pacific. Pretty exciting!

pressure now at 976 mb of Hurricane Arthur
How much rain do you think Haverhill, MA has gotten/will get?
Quoting Envoirment:


There hasn't been an "expectional reprieve" at all though. The active part of the WPAC season normally starts around this time. This year has had quite a bit of January-April activity too compared to others.

Neoguri looks like it could join the ranks of Hayain (895 mb) and Megi (885 mb) as the 3rd sub 900 mb storm of this century thus far in the Western Pacific. Pretty exciting!

I can't stand that Haiyan was assessed at 895 millibars. It's very unlikely the pressure was that high given the storm's satellite appearance.

Arhtur's development since first landfall.
Hurricane Arthur Graphics Update (8:00 pm Advisory - click to enlarge)
Neoguri ...


Radar US Northeast with Arthur.
Sympathy to our four-legged friends this evening. Underneath beds will be a popular spot.
182. txjac
Quoting 181. nrtiwlnvragn:

Sympathy to our four-legged friends this evening. Underneath beds will be a popular spot.


Or in laps
Quoting 176. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I can't stand that Haiyan was assessed at 895 millibars. It's very unlikely the pressure was that high given the storm's satellite appearance.


I agree, but then I also think the wind estimates were too high. Not saying it wasn't a Category 5 at landfall, but I don't think it made landfall with 195mph winds. We saw how with Arthur his winds were predicted too high using Dvorak. At one point they had Arthur at 105kts I believe (with a 953 Mb pressure), but realistically they peaked at around 80-85kts. Would be great if the WPAC had some recon planes to dive into storms like Haiyan. Hopefully they will do in the future.
Quoting txjac:


Or in laps

Mine gets in the bathtub.
Quoting 174. yomenm:

How much rain do you think Haverhill, MA has gotten/will get?
Looks like Haverhill has received about an inch today, and the current rain rate is about 2mm per hour there. There is one more rain band from Arthur that should be past that area by about three hours from now, so probably another .25 to .35 inch before the rain ends.
Quoting 179. GeoffreyWPB:

Neoguri ...


All the people in Florida and GOM are very concerned.
Quoting 185. CaneFreeCR:

Looks like Haverhill has received about an inch today, and the current rain rate is about 2mm per hour there. There is one more rain band from Arthur that should be past that area by about three hours from now, so probably another .25 to .35 inch before the rain ends.

Thanks, could you tell me where you found that?
Getting another intense thunderstorm with intense lightning from what one would expect to be just a tropical shower pattern.
Oh, right in front of me.... thanks.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NANTUCKET SOUND
41.443 N 70.186 W



Wind now at 37kts and climbing...
Quoting 186. prcane4you:

All the people in Florida and GOM are very concerned.


All the people in Okinawa should be concerned and start to prepare for this that looks like may be a very strong supertyhoon.


I can't get an updated version of this,
Here are a few cams in Okinawa.Some work and others not but at least you can see how are things going weatherwise as Neoguri draws closer.

Link
Winds sustained at 41 and gusting to 53 at Nantucket as of 8:08.
AT this time, Neoguri not expected to exceed 130 knots; after 72 hours conditions not as favorable.
Expect pressures to lower in or near the Gulf of Honduras this week. I give possible blob formation at 30%. Any negative comments will be recorded and served with crow as a side dish.
Quoting 188. yomenm:


Thanks, could you tell me where you found that?
Yes, I did a Google search for PWS (personal weather stations) in Haverhill, and that one is at, I believe, Scotland Hill.
Quoting 197. Grothar:

Expect pressures to lower in or near the Gulf of Honduras this week. I give possible blob formation at 30%. Any negative comments will be recorded and served with crow as a side dish.


Electron
200. beell
Quoting 197. Grothar:

Expect pressures to lower in or near the Gulf of Honduras this week. I give possible blob formation at 30%. Any negative comments will be recorded and served with crow as a side dish.


Don't forget the tail of the front across FL and just off the east coast this week.
I'll leave probability percentage to the experts.
:)


If a TC does from out in the gulf of Honduras where do you THINK it will go Grothar ?


Quoting 197. Grothar:

Expect pressures to lower in or near the Gulf of Honduras this week. I give possible blob formation at 30%. Any negative comments will be recorded and served with crow as a side dish.
Surprised not much is being made of the tropical storm winds affect Nantucket. II now it is a usual occurrence in the winter time, but Arthur is still currently a warm core Hurricane.
Quoting 183. Envoirment:



I agree, but then I also think the wind estimates were too high. Not saying it wasn't a Category 5 at landfall, but I don't think it made landfall with 195mph winds. We saw how with Arthur his winds were predicted too high using Dvorak. At one point they had Arthur at 105kts I believe (with a 953 Mb pressure), but realistically they peaked at around 80-85kts. Would be great if the WPAC had some recon planes to dive into storms like Haiyan. Hopefully they will do in the future.


I think that if they had gone flying in Haiyan they would find winds at least 200 mph and pressure around 870 mbar.
From Twitter:

"@minewsplace: ALERT: Highest wind gust on Nantucket, Mass., up to 62 mph due to Hurricane Arthur; reports of minor flooding around Broad and Easy Stree..."
205. beell
Neoguri: Racoon Dog

Neoguri up to 90kts on 00z Best Track.

08W NEOGURI 140705 0000 15.3N 138.2E WPAC 90 956
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Surprised not much is being made of the tropical storm winds affect Nantucket. II now it is a usual occurrence in the winter time, but Arthur is still currently a warm core Hurricane.


I think that's why little attention is being given; people have the "it's just a warmer nor'easter" mentality at this point.
Quoting 138. Mikeylikesthesite:

I'm sorry to those good folks in cape Hatteras and the outer banks for the damage caused, I'm very thankful that Arthur didn't ramp up to a cat 3 or 4, our oaks and maples would not fair well in Nova Scotia from a strong cat 1 but hey we should be fine maybe a few minor power outages New Brunswick may have some flooding issues with Saint John River. So basically a Nor' Easter type of event were used to those lol, if it were the end of August or septemeber with peak sst's I would be a lot more concerned.

I'm hunkering down here in Yarmouth, NS. Yes, this should be mostly like a warm Nor'Easter, and yep, we know that those are like. I don't think we'll lose a lot of trees because it's been pretty dry the past month and the ground is hard. In fact, the rain will be welcome, as long as it doesn't overstay its welcome.
I'm glad to see the folks in NC came through okay. Arthur's bark seems worse than his bite. Still, he has one hell of a bark.
Hi Gro...what marathons are on TV tonight?
Quoting bluenosedave:

I'm hunkering down here in Yarmouth, NS. Yes, this should be mostly like a warm Nor'Easter, and yep, we know that those are like. I don't think we'll lose a lot of trees because it's been pretty dry the past month and the ground is hard. In fact, the rain will be welcome, as long as it doesn't overstay its welcome.
I'm glad to see the folks in NC came through okay. Arthur's bark seems worse than his bite. Still, he has one hell of a bark.


Good Evening, nice to see a blogger from NS here. Have any preparations occurred around Yarmouth? And does Yarmouth have a weather radar?
Quoting 199. nrtiwlnvragn:



Electron



ha! I deserved that one.
Quoting 209. GeoffreyWPB:

Hi Gro...what marathons are on TV tonight?


The Twilight Zone and Father Knows Best.
Quoting 210. FIUStormChaser:



Good Evening, nice to see a blogger from NS here. Have any preparations occurred around Yarmouth? And does Yarmouth have a weather radar?

Good evening to you too, FIU. Boats are tied up tight, lots of cancellations for tomorrow. The closest weather radar is in Halifax, and we are on the outside fringe of it: Link
Quoting 201. weatherlover94:

If a TC does from out in the gulf of Honduras where do you THINK it will go Grothar ?





too early to tell.
Are any models showing development in that are ?


Quoting 214. Grothar:



too early to tell.
Quoting bluenosedave:

Good evening to you too, FIU. Boats are tied up tight, lots of cancellations for tomorrow. The closest weather radar is in Halifax, and we are on the outside fringe of it: Link


Thanks for the link. I am looking forward to your observations as the storm approaches.
Quoting 202. FIUStormChaser:

Surprised not much is being made of the tropical storm winds affect Nantucket. II now it is a usual occurrence in the winter time, but Arthur is still currently a warm core Hurricane.
The Atmospheric memory of the closeness of the low pressure system near the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coast of Arthur will determine the track for future snowstorms this winter such as Nor'easter.
Quoting 215. weatherlover94:

Are any models showing development in that are ?





No. Not one.
Quoting 214. Grothar:



too early to tell.
Are any of those ensembles showing anything tricking? Not any actual models i believe.
Quoting 219. Climate175:

Are any of those ensembles showing anything tricking? Not any actual models i believe.


Nothing that I have seen yet.
JMA estimates winds slightly below JTWC's 90 knots. Pressure is 960 hPa now though, which is down from 998 hPA (24 hrs ago)

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NEOGURI (T1408)
9:00 AM JST July 5 2014
=============================

SUBJECT: NEOGURI In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Neoguri (960 hPa) located at 15.2N 138.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
270 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 17.7N 133.6E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.5N 129.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 24.6N 127.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
Quoting 135. BahaHurican:

Good afternoon all, from sunny Nassau, Bahamas. It's good to see the OBX got through Arthur [or more accurately Arthur got through the OBX, lol] without causing too much disruption and mayhem. Hopefully its passage through the Canadian Maritimes will be as benign...

For those of you who were on last night when I spoke about my electricity going out - the outage was island-wide and lasted until 3:24 a.m. Reports are still sketchy, but there has been talk of sabotage to the computerized system that distributes the power throughout the island. It was pretty weird, and certainly not, as is usual, weather-related.


Hey Baha...dejavu all over again....power just went out again, same time as last night.....you were lucky last night didn't come on up my way until 6am and then went back off at 9 am....so more people were without power in Nassau last night than in NC and we didn't have a hurricane!!!!!!!!
Neoguri has two eyes!!

Oh boy,now JTWC at 3:00z forecasts peak of 140kts near Okinawa. (Kadena AF base)

Quoting 216. FIUStormChaser:



Thanks for the link. I am looking forward to your observations as the storm approaches.

I'll be here for a while, but the main action will be happening after I hit the sack. Currently it's foggy, 18 degrees C, breeze from the southeast, baro 1020 and falling. A pleasant but ominous evening.
neoguri
Web definitions

The raccoon dog, also known as the magnut or tanuki, is a canid indigenous to East Asia. It is the only extant species in the genus Nyctereutes. It is considered a basal canid species, resembling ancestral forms of the family. ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoguri
Quoting 222. NasBahMan:



Hey Baha...dejavu all over again....power just went out again, same time as last night.....you were lucky last night didn't come on up my way until 6am and then went back off at 9 am....so more people were without power in Nassau last night than in NC and we didn't have a hurricane!!!!!!!!


I'll back that up. During the northern eyewall in Nags Head winds were gusting above 80 mph easily, lights just flickered or temporarily surged. If the storm wasn't moving as fast different story, as well as more damage.
Quoting 205. beell:

Neoguri: Racoon Dog




Sorry, I didn't see you post that.
JULY 2014
4th-7th. Hazy sun, muggy with hit-or-miss thunderstorms Florida.
8th-11th. Hot, dry.
12th-15th. Heavy rains Eastern Gulf states.
16th-19th. Warm, humid.
20th-23rd. Hurricane threat Southeast coast, otherwise, scattered strong thunderstorms from Carolinas to Northern Florida.
24th-27th. Hot with frequent thunderstorms along Gulf Coast.
28th-31st. Continued hot. Take it with a grain of salt as usual.
They did pretty good with Arthur, Andrea, Debby
Quoting 226. Grothar:

neoguri
Web definitions

The raccoon dog, also known as the magnut or tanuki, is a canid indigenous to East Asia. It is the only extant species in the genus Nyctereutes. It is considered a basal canid species, resembling ancestral forms of the family. ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoguri


First time I learned what was a neoguri is by looking up "tanuki suit" for the video game Super Mario Bros. 3.
Quoting 223. Grothar:

Neoguri has two eyes!!



"All the better to see you with, my dear."
Another Godzilla system in the WPac. I'm not looking forward to how this plays out.
232. OCF
Pedley and others are talking about convection in Southern California, and indeed, from my position on the flatlands of the Los Angeles basin, today was the first day of the summer for seeing thunderheads to my north, over (or beyond) the San Gabriel mountains.

But that's a normal part of the year. And those clouds are always moving to the north or east, away from me; rain in the coastal plain is very rare. Also: those are usually high-base cumulus or cumulonimbus. Local downpours and local flash floods (helped out by steep slopes and desert non-vegetation) may be possible, but general soaking rain over a large area doesn't usually happen.

Coastal California and the Central Valley, where most of the people live and most of the crops are grown, basically don't get summer rain. The SoCal mountains, the Sierra Nevada, and the desert areas beyond those mountains get the summer showers.
Thanks for the update doc, like always. It doesn't seem Arthur was as bad as it could've been, though it's a pretty unfortunate fourth of July night for parts of Cape Cod and Nantucket.

And oh God, Neoguri in WPac is stunning. It would be disastrous if it hits Okinawa as a cat 4/5 like the current JTWC forecast indicates.
Quoting 230. HadesGodWyvern:



First time I learned what was a neoguri is by looking up "tanuki suit" for the video game Super Mario Bros. 3.


Very strange looking animal.

I've often wondered if giraffes get stiff necks. I wonder how they would get someone up there to massage them.
Quoting 183. Envoirment:



I agree, but then I also think the wind estimates were too high. Not saying it wasn't a Category 5 at landfall, but I don't think it made landfall with 195mph winds. We saw how with Arthur his winds were predicted too high using Dvorak. At one point they had Arthur at 105kts I believe (with a 953 Mb pressure), but realistically they peaked at around 80-85kts. Would be great if the WPAC had some recon planes to dive into storms like Haiyan. Hopefully they will do in the future.

I was wondering why they quit reconnaissance in the West Pacific. After 20 minutes searching through Google what I found was the 54th Weather Recon Squadron, aka the typhoon chasers, had budget cuts in 1987. Darn :(
I read something this morning about how no one was really affected. I guess the last old timey families still left that provide fresh seafood to the rich folks would be the nobodies. There won't be any Coast guard boats looking for lost crab traps to support a popular American product. Goodbye good times.
Would it kill you to buy American son ... would it?
238. beell
Quoting 228. Grothar:



Sorry, I didn't see you post that.


Racoon dog does not get much publicity. Racoon dog happy with attention.

Quoting 230. HadesGodWyvern:



First time I learned what was a neoguri is by looking up "tanuki suit" for the video game Super Mario Bros. 3.


First time I learned about a "tanuki suit" was about 2 minutes ago.
:)
Quoting 238. beell:



Racoon dog does not get much publicity. Racoon dog happy with attention.



First time I learned about a "tanuki suit" was about 2 minutes ago.
:)


The I guess you are not familiar with the zoot suit.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Sympathy to our four-legged friends this evening. Underneath beds will be a popular spot.

Yes, indeed. Poor Radar Dog is as scared of fireworks as he is of thunderstorms. The good thing is I've already been able to take him for a walk without getting heat exhaustion. It's 73 now, with a dewpoint of 63. The coolest and least humid we've been in a week. Now, if we can just scare some rain up, things would be perfect.
241. beell
Quoting Pallis1:
I read something this morning about how no one was really affected. I guess the last old timey families still left that provide fresh seafood to the rich folks would be the nobodies. There won't be any Coast guard boats looking for lost crab traps to support a popular American product. Goodbye good times.
Would it kill you to buy American son ... would it?

That all makes perfect sense to me...
Quoting beell:

Oh, geez, I just choked on a corn dog. At least give us some warning if you're going to post things that funny. :-)
Large storm. Big as the Philippines.



lots of rain down in the GOM
Quoting 241. beell:




Beel, you are crazy. That should be the image of the month in the non-tropic section.
Quoting 226. Grothar:

neoguri
Web definitions

The raccoon dog, also known as the magnut or tanuki, is a canid indigenous to East Asia. It is the only extant species in the genus Nyctereutes. It is considered a basal canid species, resembling ancestral forms of the family. ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NeoguriVery interesting, but I would not try to keep one as a pet down south. I think the official weather related name comes from the ramen noodle snack that has not quite made it here yet, but is sold in extremely more populated areas of the world. Three TD's named after salty fishy snack. look it up y'all. Corporate interests are all over the weather scene. I know about these type of snacks because when I was going to private school in Houston,(when Houston was the center of the world),I was offered, and ate them from the son of a major importer. Frito/Lay ain't got nothing on these cats.
Winds at 50mph, Gusts 63mph at Nantucket
Quoting Envoirment:


I agree, but then I also think the wind estimates were too high. Not saying it wasn't a Category 5 at landfall, but I don't think it made landfall with 195mph winds. We saw how with Arthur his winds were predicted too high using Dvorak. At one point they had Arthur at 105kts I believe (with a 953 Mb pressure), but realistically they peaked at around 80-85kts. Would be great if the WPAC had some recon planes to dive into storms like Haiyan. Hopefully they will do in the future.

In the absence of recon we will never know how strong Haiyan was. However, its satellite appearance far exceeded other typhoons of similar caliber. I actually wouldn't be surprised if they were understated some.
Quoting beell:




That's funny stuff right there Beell!~

Quoting 241. beell:




caption should say "recon finds surprise while flying in Arthur"
Quoting 249. TropicalAnalystwx13:


In the absence of recon we will never know how strong Haiyan was. However, its satellite appearance far exceeded other typhoons of similar caliber. I actually wouldn't be surprised if they were understated some.


True and it looked better than all Category 5s that recon has visited in the Atlantic. The thing that got me with Haiyan was the storm surge though. It was more like a Tsunami than a storm surge when it came in.
253. beell
Quoting 249. TropicalAnalystwx13:


In the absence of recon we will never know how strong Haiyan was. However, its satellite appearance far exceeded other typhoons of similar caliber. I actually wouldn't be surprised if they were understated some.


I'm sure recon would not have understated Haiyan. Cat 6 or 7 at least.
Quoting 241. beell:



and that is how to massage a giraffes neck..(quickly!)
Quoting 253. beell:



I'm sure recon would not have understated Haiyan. Cat 6 or 7 at least.


if they existed
256. beell
In all seriousness, who would willingly fly into Haiyan? A good job for a drone!
The BOC should get circled.
Quoting 160. congaline:

Did Arthur leave something behind over Fl?


Extremely weak troughing, mainly just in the wake of that rare high pressure ridge that was suppressing rainy season convection over Florida.

Its just typical rainy season coverage with deep moisture in place. Nothing unusual.

Eye clearng out nicely:

Quoting opal92nwf:

There may have been worse pockets, but from what I have gathered, Dennis's winds were much less worse than Ivan. TWC coverage with Mike Bettes in Destin was extremely underwhelming as he even exclaimed how lucky they had been.

Also, Ivan caused worse wind damage farther away from its center than Dennis.

Dennis and Ivan are two good storms to look at in terms of similar intensity (cat 3) but much different outcomes. Dennis was compact, with hurricane winds just 40 miles from the center, while Ivan was a large storm, with hurricane force winds up to 105 miles, and was a very slow mover. The lowest pressure in Ivan was 910 mb compared to Dennis having 930 mb. Ivan was pushing a huge wall of water ahead of it before landfall compared to Dennis.

Ivan was probably the single most damaging storm to hit the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. It was able to maintain hurricane status for about 100 miles from the coast into Alabama. Entire housing tracts were leveled in the Panhandle, especially in the area around Pensacola. Almost the entire power grid was destroyed in south and central Alabama, along with millions of acres of forest. Dennis barely exceeded hurricane force after landfall and moved quickly enough that inland flooding wasn't a major problem compared to Ivan. Structure damage in both Florida and Alabama was minimal from Dennis compared to Ivan.

I guess the takeaway from this is that, if you have to get hit by a major hurricane, a compact fast mover of relatively higher pressure is going to cause less damage than a large, lower pressure storm that's a slow mover. The North Carolina coast was lucky with Arthur that the storm was lopsided toward the east, where the strongest winds and heaviest rains occurred. It was also a relatively high pressure storm, and it did start to finally accelerate as it moved over the last of the coast. So far, it looks like the Cape Cod area will also escape major problems. Hopefully, the same will hold true for the Maritimes. As has been said previously, I hope people, after our long hurricane drought, don't think that Arthur is a good example of what a cat 2 can dish out.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 050237
TCDAT1

HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

Satellite and radar data indicates that Arthur has begun
extratropical transition. The eye feature seen previously has
dissipated, and the remaining convection is now displaced somewhat
to the northeast of the low-level center. In addition, microwave
total precipitable water data from a recent SSM/IS overpass shows
very dry air entraining into the west and south sides of the
cyclone. SFMR data from the previous Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter flight showed maximum winds of 60-65 kt, and based on this
the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 65 kt.

The initial motion is now 045/27 kt. Arthur should continue to move
northeastward during the next 24-36 hours in deep-layer
southwesterly flow ahead of a baroclinic trough over the
northeastern United States. After that time, the post-tropical
cyclone is forecast to slow down and eventually turn
east-northeastward. Based on the current motion and model trends,
this part of the forecast has been nudged a little to the east of
the previous track. There remains a large amount of spread in the
track guidance after 48 hours on whether the former Arthur will turn
more northward or turn east-northeastward out into the Atlantic. The
new official forecast during that period has been revised based on
a blend of input from the Ocean Prediction Center along with the
GFS and ECMWF models.

Arthur is expected to complete extratropical transition in about 12
hours. After transition, the former tropical cyclone should
steadily weaken, with winds dropping below gale force by 96 hours.
The intensity forecast has been revised downward based on input from
the OPC, as well as from the GFS and ECMWF models.

Winds in excess of gale/tropical storm force are expected over
portions of eastern Maine on Saturday. Because Arthur is expected
to be extratropical by Saturday morning, and because the strong
winds in Maine will be post-frontal, this threat is being handled by
high wind warnings issued by local NWS offices.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 41.2N 68.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 44.0N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 06/0000Z 46.5N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 06/1200Z 48.5N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/0000Z 51.5N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0000Z 58.0N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 60.0N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z 61.5N 44.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quoting 259. Envoirment:

Eye clearng out nicely:




Look at all that moisture it has to feed on. Early candidate for 2014's most impressive TC?

Edit: Is that a low pressure area with clockwise flow between Neoguri and the Equator? Because it sure looks like it. Link
Quoting 259. Envoirment:

Eye clearng out nicely:




looks like it lost a lot of fat it had with it it now looks like a vary small storm
Quoting beell:
In all seriousness, who would willingly fly into Haiyan? A good job for a drone!

It actually is a good job for a drone. I guess NOAA is moving in that direction with at least experimenting with the Global Hawk program. I think it will still be some time before we see unmanned flights as the norm but I think that day will happen. Given the number of missions flown by the manned aircraft, it's amazing that the casualty rate has been so low, but there's no reason to keep taking that risk if the drone missions can succeed.
Quoting Tazmanian:


looks like it lost a lot of fat it had with it it now looks like a vary small storm



LOL
Taz....Arthur lost his bloat!
Quoting FIUStormChaser:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 050237
TCDAT1

HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

Satellite and radar data indicates that Arthur has begun
extratropical transition. The eye feature seen previously has
dissipated, and the remaining convection is now displaced somewhat
to the northeast of the low-level center.


Just from looking at the satellite presentation and what can still be seen on radar, it seems like 65 knots is very generous. Of course, we saw from Arthur that satellite presentation can be deceiving.

Quoting 262. TimSoCal:



Look at all that moisture it has to feed on. Early candidate for 2014's most impressive TC?

Edit: Is that a low pressure area with clockwise flow between Neoguri and the Equator? Because it sure looks like it. Link
Displaced Anti-cyclone maybe? 
Quoting 244. Grothar:

Large storm. Big as the Philippines.






Wow, looks very similar to this monster.



Not out of the question it gets as strong as well.
Quoting 268. Gearsts:




big eye
Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Arthur was a case of a storm fighting off constant dry air entrainment and still intensifying into a Cat 2. Arthur was also a good example of how dry air has a very limiting factor even in a Cat 2. Eye had dry air throughout and when the eye went over the OB it had a very weak impact compared to what one would expect from a Cat.2 eye. Collapsing thunderstorms from bands around the eye due to the dry air stopped the outer bands from being what one might expect from a 100 mph hurricane. So while Arthur stole the show, dry air saved the day. And my favorite lesson learned, if power and cell service is still ongoing, then widespread destruction is likely not happening. Did some research on it, and that parallels almost across the board for the really bad hurricanes from the past. Thanks for that tidbit Sar.

Just reading back now after having a very pleasant Fourth. After being in maybe 20 severe storm and earthquake events as a first responder and emergency manager, one thing we always had with us were generators. The second thing was knowing the location of the Verizon emergency cell phone tower and satellite truck and getting it to us ASAP. Electricity and cell service were almost never available for at least the first couple of days. Just a hint. If you're going to chase storms, just slap some Verizon stickers on the side of your vehicle and you can go anywhere. :-)
Quoting 267. sar2401:



Just from looking at the satellite presentation and what can still be seen on radar, it seems like 65 knots is very generous. Of course, we saw from Arthur that satellite presentation can be deceiving.


70mph Tropical Storm would be more reasonable, but it's only 5mph. Perhaps, there are stronger winds on the eastern side that will make their way on shore in Nova Scotia.

Looks like it's heading straight for Yarmouth, NS.
Just a hint. If you're going to chase storms, just slap some Verizon stickers on the side of your vehicle and you can go anywhere. :-)

I've done that myself...dragging my radio stuff along...had no problems ever!

New Bedford, Massachusetts got 8 inches of Rain from Arthur, the city doest have much greenspace so flash flooding was a big Issue.
Also there was minor Coastal flooding on Nantucket Island.
~10,000 out of power in Massachusetts,
Does appear to have a slight spin to it

Quoting 225. bluenosedave:


I'll be here for a while, but the main action will be happening after I hit the sack. Currently it's foggy, 18 degrees C, breeze from the southeast, baro 1020 and falling. A pleasant but ominous evening.


interestingly enough i am quite sure we have a decent amount of WU bloggers from Nova Scotia. It will be interesting to see what effects they will recieve, as they are the first landmass (excluding Northern Bahamas and OBX) that will actually be on the eastern side of the storm.
278. silas

Quoting Grothar:
Large storm. Big as the Philippines.



The Western Pacific never ceases to amaze....
Quoting 276. WDEmobmet:

Does appear to have a slight spin to it



Some spin, not much but whatever's there will tend to get aided by the bowl-shaped topograhy in that area of the gulf.
Quoting 265. sar2401:


It actually is a good job for a drone. I guess NOAA is moving in that direction with at least experimenting with the Global Hawk program. I think it will still be some time before we see unmanned flights as the norm but I think that day will happen. Given the number of missions flown by the manned aircraft, it's amazing that the casualty rate has been so low, but there's no reason to keep taking that risk if the drone missions can succeed.
I'm thinking drone flights as useful out in areas where getting a plane out there is not just prohibitively expensive, but also physically impossible. If, say, one could run a fleet of drones out into the 40 - 50 W area of the MDR, one could pick up advanced data that would better inform models about conditions and lead to better forecasts of rapid intensification or dissipation ...

281. JLPR2
A nice spin is getting ready to move off Africa soon, around the area where the convection is popping up close to the coast, would be promising if it was late August/September.

Quoting 276. WDEmobmet:

Does appear to have a slight spin to it






Definitely some vort there at lower levels. But shear is around 30kts above the system, so I don't think it'll do much.

The models have been showing weak systems entering the BOC for the next few weeks, but unless shear decreases, I don't think there's much of a chance for development.
Was everyone kinda surprised at the NHC having so many HH flights into Arthur? They seemed to have both the P-3 AND C-130 in there together at least few times and then throw in the NOAA Jet flights? Just seemed like overkill to me. OK, tell me how wrong I am. : )
Quoting 276. WDEmobmet:

Does appear to have a slight spin to it




I see spin everywhere!
285. JLPR2
This cant be right, such a drastic change in 3hrs just seems impossible.

Windshear -3hrs:


Windshear now:
Quoting 285. JLPR2:

This cant be right, such a drastic change in 3hrs just seems impossible.

Windshear -3hrs:


Windshear now:

bug
Quoting 278. silas:


The Western Pacific never ceases to amaze....



Yup, West Pacific with hot juicy water has created some monster Typhoons.
"@NWSOPC: Altimeter data from 0035 UTC w/00Z OPC sfc analys w/wave heights to 42.57 ft in the SE quadrant of #HurricaneArthur http://t.co/AZTOYe4adC"
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Was everyone kinda surprised at the NHC having so many HH flights into Arthur? They seemed to have both the P-3 AND C-130 in there together at least few times and then throw in the NOAA Jet flights? Just seemed like overkill to me. OK, tell me how wrong I am. : )

OK, I'll tell you. :-) This is one of the few cases where the NHC had the ability to verify what the planes were finding with both radar and satellite and compare that to Dvorak estimations. We usually have two or three out of the four but not all four. We also had the issue of Arthur potentially getting onshore for a lot more of the coast than he eventually did. Golden opportunity, and I'm sure the NHC wishes they could have done even more flights.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I see spin everywhere!



.LMAO! Don't we all!

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I see spin everywhere!
Too much holiday celebrating? :)
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm thinking drone flights as useful out in areas where getting a plane out there is not just prohibitively expensive, but also physically impossible. If, say, one could run a fleet of drones out into the 40 - 50 W area of the MDR, one could pick up advanced data that would better inform models about conditions and lead to better forecasts of rapid intensification or dissipation ...


There are a lot of really interesting possibilities. There's a current program to attempt aerial refueling with the Global Hawk. It hasn't happened yet but they have done controlled flight within 30 feet of the tanker. If they can perfect the refueling technique, there's the potential for the Hawk to stay up for as long as 70 hours. They could fly an area more or less continually and refuel at high altitude. These unmanned aerial vehicles will change the whole concept of airplanes over the next 20 years.
293. beell
Quoting 286. Gearsts:

bug


Not much difference. Added: Over Arthur.
Quoting Envoirment:




Definitely some vort there at lower levels. But shear is around 30kts above the system, so I don't think it'll do much.

The models have been showing weak systems entering the BOC for the next few weeks, but unless shear decreases, I don't think there's much of a chance for development.

Going nowhere for now. The shear is too high, vertical instability is too low, and the easterly Trade Winds are still howling. It does appear that things will begin to change over the 10 days, and the BOC and SW Caribbean area will become more favored.
Quoting 285. JLPR2:

This cant be right, such a drastic change in 3hrs just seems impossible.

Windshear -3hrs:


Windshear now:







Shows a large anti-cyclone really ramping up and moving further south into the Carribean and a huge one appearing in the MDR near Africa. Very weird, haven't seen anything like this before.
Quoting FIUStormChaser:


70mph Tropical Storm would be more reasonable, but it's only 5mph. Perhaps, there are stronger winds on the eastern side that will make their way on shore in Nova Scotia.

Looks like it's heading straight for Yarmouth, NS.

It's beginning to weaken fairly rapidly low and it looks like the transition to extratropical has really begun. Nova Scotia may see 55-60 mph winds out of the former Arthur but I don't think it will be much higher. Nova Scotia needs rain, and Arthur might be a good quick shot of a couple inches. So far, Arthur has been remarkably well behaved for a cat 2 hurricane.
Quoting Randrewl:
Just a hint. If you're going to chase storms, just slap some Verizon stickers on the side of your vehicle and you can go anywhere. :-)

I've done that myself...dragging my radio stuff along...had no problems ever!


There are many things that can done. Please not I'm note advocating any of them, just reporting on them. :-) One thing that helps for sure is being a ham radio operator and having your license along for ID. Being an official NWS storm spotter also doesn't hurt. I really wish more chasers would get their license. They can not only chase but report what they see on the severe storm net, and it will get to the NWS (and have more believability) than just a tweet.
Quoting 289. sar2401:


OK, I'll tell you. :-) This is one of the few cases where the NHC had the ability to verify what the planes were finding with both radar and satellite and compare that to Dvorak estimations. We usually have two or three out of the four but not all four. We also had the issue of Arthur potentially getting onshore for a lot more of the coast than he eventually did. Golden opportunity, and I'm sure the NHC wishes they could have done even more flights.


OK OK 50 Times on the balckboard:

1) I will never doubt the NHC
2) I will never doubt the NHC
3) I will never..........................
Well, I guess the cretins ran out of ordinance. It sounded like Beruit over here for about an hour.
Nope they still have some, must have been reloading...lol
Hey, Joe, did you get any rain today????
301. JLPR2
Quoting 295. Envoirment:







Shows a large anti-cyclone really ramping up and moving further south into the Carribean and a huge one appearing in the MDR near Africa. Very weird, haven't seen anything like this before.


That's not an anticyclone, that's an ULL that seems to have split up from the subtropical jet producing areas of 20knots of shear on its right and left sides.
Quoting sar2401:

There are many things that can done. Please not I'm note advocating any of them, just reporting on them. :-) One thing that helps for sure is being a ham radio operator and having your license along for ID. Being an official NWS storm spotter also doesn't hurt. I really wish more chasers would get their license. They can not only chase but report what they see on the severe storm net, and it will get to the NWS (and have more believability) than just a tweet.



You are absolutely correct. I am a broadcast engineer so I was always needed wherever I appeared!

I have logged on to many cell towers in the midst of nasty storms with a genny and anything needed.

Most of their guys were sucking their thumbs!

Some dry air to the north
Quoting 301. JLPR2:



That's not an anticyclone, that's an ULL that seems to have split up from the subtropical jet producing areas of 20knots of shear on its right and left sides.
Low shear south of the TUTT lol
Quoting PedleyCA:
Well, I guess the cretins ran out of ordinance. It sounded like Beruit over here for about an hour.
Nope they still have some, must have been reloading...lol

Yeah, it was bad here too. Sounded like half our usual selection of thugs and morons bought out a fireworks store. They are, of course, illegal in the city and, as usual, the cops did nothing about it.
Quoting 306. sar2401:


Yeah, it was bad here too. Sounded like half our usual selection of thugs and morons bought out a fireworks store. They are, of course, illegal in the city and, as usual, the cops did nothing about it.


Same here, I had one of my cats with me on the porch and it didn't even phase him. They are still doing a few sporadic bursts, but it should be almost over, and no cops anywhere.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


OK OK 50 Times on the balckboard:

1) I will never doubt the NHC
2) I will never doubt the NHC
3) I will never..........................

It's a good thing to remember. I have seen times I thought the NHC was really behind the power curve on a storm, and I have no fear about saying so. Arthur was the best performance of models and the NHC I remember in my 55 years of watching hurricanes. They were off somewhat on how fast the storm would move and when the turn to the NE would occur, but the Outer Banks were always in the cone. I suspect there were many on here that thought Arthur just had to make landfall in Florida, but the NHC had that part of the track absolutely nailed. Even the intensity was closer than most storms. I was very impressed this time, and I hope this is a sign of things to come for the rest of the season.
Quoting 299. PedleyCA:

Well, I guess the cretins ran out of ordinance. It sounded like Beruit over here for about an hour.
Nope they still have some, must have been reloading...lol


Did they get the fireworks at this wonderfully renowned place? :)



Not too much here for criminal-ish activity.
Quoting yonzabam:
Well, this CNN reporter could hardly stand up in Arthur's wind. Looks like a cat 2 to me.

Youtube Link

She's standing right at the beach. The lights are still on. I see no evidence of damage or blowing debris. The remote truck and tower were still working, and that means the hydraulic mast wasn't being blown about too badly. Looks like 60-65 mph winds tops to me.
Robin Trower is a nice piece...But here's the Real Deal while all still alive!!


Quoting 241. beell:




Oh Beell... Great to have you back on the blog. You were always one of my favorites when I was a lurker, and you still continue to post funny stuff.
313. JLPR2
Quoting 304. Gearsts:

Low shear south of the TUTT lol


I really want to the see the map's next update, the low shear it's showing now seems unrealistic.
Quoting Skyepony:


I guess that was a summary of Nick's chase I watched early this morning. He was extremely lucky that Arthur didn't have a bigger impact. Chasing alone, at night, with no apparent plan of where he was going, no apparent safe area he could go, and sometimes he didn't even know where he was at. He should thank his lucky stars he's still alive.
Quoting WIBadgerWeather:


Oh Beell... Great to have you back on the blog. You were always one of my favorites when I was a lurker, and you still continue to post funny stuff.

Yeah, well, that giraffe in the airplane window almost made me choke to death on a corn dog. I should leave a note somewhere that if I'm found dead from choking on food, it's Beell's fault. :-)
Quoting beell:
I knew I'd find something for the blog opening!

Buckhead Ridge...Ridge included.

Path profile (yellow line) is from southeast to northwest-from the lake, over the ridge and back down the other side. The ridge reminds me of a few places in south Louisiana where a few feet of elevation makes all the difference.


click for biggerness


271. aquak9 3:50 AM GMT on July 05, 2014 Hide this comment.



click for biggerness

I been doin' it wrong all these years....

Now this is funny stuff right here!


So there you go...Beell is one funny guy!

Hurricane Arthur Graphics Update (2:00 am Advisory - click to enlarge)
BOC NEXT!!!!
Quoting AllStar17:
Hurricane Arthur Graphics Update (2:00 am Advisory - click to enlarge)

I'm rather surprised they maintain Arthur as a hurricane with the pressure rise. Even on the rainbow view, which makes everything look worse than it really is, Arthur is being ripped to shreds by shear and has lost almost all his deep convection. Doesn't look like a hurricane to me but I'm also not the NHC.

Quoting accu35:
BOC NEXT!!!!

That was very helpful. Thanks!!!!
Quoting 320. sar2401:


I'm rather surprised they maintain Arthur as a hurricane with the pressure rise. Even on the rainbow view, which makes everything look worse than it really is, Arthur is being ripped to shreds by shear and has lost almost all his deep convection. Doesn't look like a hurricane to me but I'm also not the NHC.




Stronger storms such as Arthur, despite their appearance, can take longer than you might think to wind down.
Quoting 322. AllStar17:



Stronger storms such as Arthur, despite their appearance, can take longer than you might think to wind down.


I wouldn't argue on the winding down part, I would argue that Arthur is rapidly losing his tropical characteristics. The NHC's last advisory will be when they fully believe that Arthur is a post-tropical storm, but he will most likely still have some gale force winds.
324. JLPR2
There we go...

325. FOREX
Quoting 272. sar2401:


Just reading back now after having a very pleasant Fourth. After being in maybe 20 severe storm and earthquake events as a first responder and emergency manager, one thing we always had with us were generators. The second thing was knowing the location of the Verizon emergency cell phone tower and satellite truck and getting it to us ASAP. Electricity and cell service were almost never available for at least the first couple of days. Just a hint. If you're going to chase storms, just slap some Verizon stickers on the side of your vehicle and you can go anywhere. :-)


Hi Sar, where did you live where you felt quakes?
Will that be it until August for the Atlantic, Gulf, and Caribbean? Know Gro is saying watch the Southern Caribbean for development for next week. And with pressures dropping STJ still going to be racing across the Caribbean inhibiting development. WPAC is going to be harrowing next few days, going to be the 900-925mb beast of discussion. Japan does not need this for sure. With El-Nino typically re-curving tphoons away from the Philippines, Japan may be in for a long season. Speaking of that, the nuclear plant Fukushima, say it were to get hit by a 175 plus mph typhoon, what would the affects be?
327. vis0
CREDIT::NOAA presented thru aviationweather
Imagery area::Gulf of Mexico (GoMx)/Bay of Campeche
Imagery period::201407-05;0115 till 201407-05;0615
Imagery type:: IR clr



CREDIT::NOAA presented thru aviationweather
Imagery area::West Pacific
Imagery period::201407-05;0015 till 201407-05;0615 (daRn! was to be 7frames edit took out similar frames @#&@!!)
Imagery type:: IR clr




Quoting 326. DeepSeaRising:

Will that be it until August for the Atlantic, Gulf, and Caribbean? Know Gro is saying watch the Southern Caribbean for development for next week. And with pressures dropping STJ still going to be racing across the Caribbean inhibiting development. WPAC is going to be harrowing next few days, going to be the 900-925mb beast of discussion. Japan does not need this for sure. With El-Nino typically re-curving tphoons away from the Philippines, Japan may be in for a long season. Speaking of that, the nuclear plant Fukushima, say it were to get hit by a 175 plus mph typhoon, what would the affects be?


Neoguri may have weakened to a cat 1 by the time it reaches the main Japanese islands.


Hope so yonzabam.
Know Fukushima getting hit by a major typhoon is a very small probability. Probably in the realm of 1% or less for many reasons. Just was curious how the nuclear water containment vessels there would stand up to a major typhoon landing. They've been unlucky before to say the least.
Morning all.

Looks like Arthur is making the transition to extra / post tropical right now.



But let's see what NHC has to say at 5 a.m.
Aha.... as expected....

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

...ARTHUR LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
...WEATHER RAPIDLY DETERIORATING OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.1N 66.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NANTUCKET...AND FOR CAPE COD FROM
PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR
WILL BE CROSSING NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND
ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER. YARTMOUTH IN WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA RECENTLY REPORT A
WIND GUST TO 46 MPH...74 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
Discussion is pretty much to be expected:

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane
indicate that Arthur is rapidly losing tropical characteristics. The
low-level center is now displaced from the convection, and the rain
shield has expanded significantly toward the northwest. However,the
circulation is still vigorous given that there was a peak wind of
83 knots at 850 mb reported by the Air Force plane. These strong
winds are not reaching the surface, and the initial intensity is set
at 60 knots based on SFMR reports. Arthur should complete
extratropical transition later today and should weaken.

Arthur has slowed down as anticipated and is moving toward the
northeast at 19 knots. The cyclone should continue on this
general track steered by the southwesterly flow ahead of a
mid-latitude trough. In fact, most of the global models show Arthur
becoming associated with this trough in about 12 to 24 hours.

Both intensity and track forecasts during the post-tropical
stage have been adjusted based on input from the OPC.'


I notice all the forecast positions are "extra-tropical / post-tropical ones....
Very windy right now! Not much rain (as was expected). 28000 people without power right now.
Now 44600 customers without power


\what is going on here
Analyzing Hurricane Arthur .....

Hurricane Arthur may not have delivered the sustained wind speeds that are normally associated with a CAT2 100MPH hurricane, but it was still very interesting! Like everyone says on here, hurricanes of the same category (in this case, CAT2) has a personality that makes it different from the past land-falling CAT2 hurricanes.

More wind GUST recordings: Ocracoke Island, NC, had 99MPH wind gusts, and Pamlico Sound, NC also reported 99MPH wind gusts. It appears that Cape Lookout, NC had the highest official wind gust recorded at 101MPH.

Official weather reporting stations are just small points within a land-falling hurricane, and it is possible that the highest winds are missed or not sampled by the official wind gauges.

Just an observation: It appears that in many land-falling hurricanes the max (1 minute sustained) winds reported, are usually only measured in (3-5 second) GUSTS.

In this case, we had 99MPH and 101MPH wind gusts recorded in Hurricane Arthur, but the max (100MPH sustained 1 minute) winds were not actually recorded at any land stations. However, there are probably some remote areas in NC that were hit fairly hard by this hurricane, but have not been reported in the media or news.

The fact that 100MPH Hurricane Arthur was fast moving may have also contributed to the lack of damage. Just for comparison, Hurricane Georges (1998) was a 105MPH CAT2 hurricane that made landfall near Ocean Springs-Biloxi, MS. At landfall, Georges was moving/drifting inland very slowly, and this resulted in a LOT of wind damage. The hurricane seemed to last forever! Also, Georges did not have to fight the dry air intrusion that Arthur was constantly battling. Arthur was moving a lot faster, and the winds did not last as long.

In some ways, the formation and development of Hurricane Arthur reminds me of Hurricane Danny (JULY 1997). Both hurricanes were originally low pressure systems that moved from the continental US, into the waters off the US coasts. Both hurricanes formed in July, and made US landfalls.

Hope the Outer Banks, NC, and other areas can salvage the rest of their weekend, and glad for them the damage was not too extreme, and there was no loss of life.


Well, Neourgi is already up to 135 mph.

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I see spin everywhere!


Please leave Politics out of this blog !
...ARTHUR BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND DOWN EAST MAINE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.5N 66.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
its north but that is a large wave moving west 30w 25n
343. FOREX
Quoting 337. hurricanes2018:



\what is going on here


That's been going on for weeks. Conditions unfavorable.
12z Best Track stays at 115kts.

08W NEOGURI 140705 1200 16.7N 135.8E WPAC 115 937
EP, 04, 2014070512, , BEST, 0, 234N, 1198W, 30, 1008, LO
This morning Yahoo News reports: Peru says El Nino threat over, waters cooling and fish returning. "The possibility of us seeing an extraordinary Nino is ruled out," German Vasquez, the head of the state committee that studies El Nino said. But the spokesman said warmer waters may return by the end of the year. So there you go.

Hi over there with the latest "Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS" of Neoguri.
Who the Atlantic and Caribbean are dry dry dry.........need some rain and a break from the heat.
I have heard from several people here who have been complaining also from sinus problems and breathing problems and was thinking it may be from the amount of dust in the atmosphere lately.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

ANALYSIS OF ATLANTIC SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTH
(AOD) SHOW SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50W AND LOWER
VALUES STRETCHING ACROSS CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE HIGHER VALUES APPROACHING AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS MEANS WITH LOW LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND SAL TO THE SOUTH
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THE OCCASIONAL INCURSIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR COULD MOVE IN AT TIMES WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
PARTICULARLY EARLY AND/OR MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS IS POTENTIAL FOR HAZY CONDITIONS AND POOR AIR
QUALITY. IT COULD ALSO RESULT IN OVERALL LESS CONVECTION THAN
ANTICIPATED BUT STRONGER IN CHARACTER. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
DIMINISHES WITH THESE INTRUSIONS ALSO AS THE HYDROMETEOR SIZE
DISTRIBUTION SHIFTS TOWARDS THE SMALLER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM.
REGARDLESS IT IS UNCERTAIN BUT THESE ARE RELATIVELY WELL KNOWN
EFFECTS WHEN THESE INCURSIONS HAPPEN. THOUGHT I ADDRESS HERE GIVEN
QUESTIONS WE RECEIVE ON THE SUBJECT.
Quoting 348. 19N81W:

Who the Atlantic and Caribbean are dry dry dry.........need some rain and a break from the heat.
I have heard from several people here who have been complaining also from sinus problems and breathing problems and was thinking it may be from the amount of dust in the atmosphere lately.


And unfortunately this will continue for some days:


Dust forecast for Monday.

NASA's satellite picture of the day shows the saharian dust train in an unusual angle:


Saharan Dust on the Move
NASA Earth Observatory, July 5, 2014

A piece of Africa - actually lots of them - began to arrive in the Americas in June 2014. On June 23, a lengthy river of dust from western Africa began to push across the Atlantic Ocean on easterly winds. A week later, the influx of dust was affecting air quality as far away as the southeastern United States.

This composite image, made with data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi NPP, shows dust heading west toward South America and the Gulf of Mexico on June 25, 2014. The dust flowed roughly parallel to a line of clouds in the intertropical convergence zone, an area near the equator where the trade winds come together and rain and clouds are common. In imagery captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the dust appeared to be streaming from Mauritania, Senegal, and Western Sahara, though some of it may have originated in countries farther to the east. ...


Whole article see link above.
Noeguri going thru an EWRC?
Quoting 351. Tropicsweatherpr:

Noeguri going thru an EWRC?


Eye still is somehow ragged anyway.
Quoting Stormwatch247:
Analyzing Hurricane Arthur .....

Hurricane Arthur may not have delivered the sustained wind speeds that are normally associated with a CAT2 100MPH hurricane, but it was still very interesting to watch! Like everyone says on here, hurricanes of the same category (in this case, CAT2) has a personality that makes it different from the last land-falling CAT2 hurricane.

More wind GUST recordings: Ocracoke Island, NC, had 99MPH wind gusts, and Pamlico Sound, NC also reported 99MPH wind gusts. It appears that Cape Lookout, NC had the highest official wind gust recorded at 101MPH.

Official weather reporting stations are just small points within a land-falling hurricane, and it is possible that the highest winds are missed or not sampled by the official wind gauges.

Just an observation: It appears that in many land-falling hurricanes the max (1 minute sustained) winds reported, are usually only measured in (3-5 second) GUSTS.

In this case, we had 99MPH and 101MPH wind gusts recorded in Hurricane Arthur, but the max (100MPH sustained 1 minute) winds were not actually recorded at any land stations. However, there are probably some remote areas in NC that were hit fairly hard by this hurricane, but have not been reported in the media or news.

The fact that 100MPH Hurricane Arthur was fast moving may have also contributed to the lack of damage. Just for comparison, Hurricane Georges (1998) was a 105MPH CAT2 hurricane that made landfall near Ocean Springs-Biloxi, MS. At landfall, Georges was moving/drifting inland very slowly, and this resulted in a LOT of wind damage. The hurricane seemed to last forever! Also, Georges did not have to fight the dry air intrusion that Arthur was constantly battling. Arthur was moving a lot faster, and the winds did not last as long.

In some ways, the formation and development of Hurricane Arthur reminds me of Hurricane Danny (JULY 1997). Both hurricanes were originally low pressure systems that moved from the continental US, into the waters off the US coasts. Both hurricanes formed in July, and made US landfalls.

Hope the Outer Banks, NC, and other areas can salvage the rest of their weekend, and glad for them the damage was not too extreme, and there was no loss of life.




No matter how you look at it, Arthur had well below CAT2 winds over land.
Most the reporting stations that experienced the eye/eye wall of Arthur had Tropical Storm force winds.
Many reporting stations only saw sustained winds in the 40 mph range with gusts to 50-60mph that had the eye pass directly over their location.

You can always search for isolated wind gusts from any storm. A CAT2 should easily produce wind gusts in the 120-130 mph range.
Winds in that range will produce wide spread structural damage (which was not observed with Arthur).
The only real wind damage I saw from Arthur was from isolated tornadoes well inland from the coast.
Quoting 353. Sfloridacat5:



No matter how you look at it, Arthur had well below CAT2 winds over land.
Most the reporting stations that experienced the eye/eye wall of Arthur had Tropical Storm force winds.
Many reporting stations only saw sustained winds in the 40 mph range with gusts to 50-60mph that had the eye pass directly over their location.

You can always search for isolated wind gusts from any storm. A CAT2 should easily produce wind gusts in the 120-130 mph range.
Winds in that range will produce wide spread structural damage (which was not observed with Arthur).
The only real wind damage I saw was from Arthur was from isolated tornadoes inland well inland from the coast.
good morning SF5. I have been watching tropics for decades. I too am from South Florida. One thing I have learned is that tropical cyclones are strange and fickle, and not just in the Atlantic Basin, but in all tropical cyclone belts around the planet. I have seen them form from what appeared to be nothing but a small area of cloud and grow into large killers. I cannot remember the year, but there was what the Mets in India called a micro cyclone 31 miles in diameter skirt the coast and killed over 1500 people. It happened with so fast, they couldnt get warnings out in time.It does happen here too. In 1982 we were in the Keys when the No Name storm formed rapidly, catching many folks off guard. There not much in the way of historical data on the system and I,m not sure why. The hybrid storms seem to crank up faster because they have both baroclinic and tropical characteristics, utilizing both to form rapid forming gales or storms. There were reports of 90 mph gusts during the No Name.
356. DDR
It could and will get worse,im glad i wont be around 200 years in the future,basically anywhere above 11n latitude inthe caribbean will be the new Sahara.
This is interesting.
Good morning everyone, taking my family on vacation tomorrow to Waterville in gulf shores, can anybody tell me is it fun.

The Online Weather World Should Take a Chill Pill, Before an Actual Disaster Strikes/weather5280.com-July 1st, 2014



very good article beell....theres a fine line.......
getting a nice rainy season down there in costa rica?
361. DDR
Quoting islander101010:
getting a nice rainy season down there in costa rica?

I'm sure they are,more rain falls there than here,im in Trinidad.
362. beell
Quoting 359. ricderr:


The Online Weather World Should Take a Chill Pill, Before an Actual Disaster Strikes/weather5280.com-July 1st, 2014



very good article beell....theres a fine line.......


Mornin' ric.
And many don't realize they have crossed it in the rush.
Thanks for sharing, This is what I get crap for here because so many doom casters want to see destruction and major damage, it is a thrill for them... After going through direct hits in St Lucie county in 2004, I can tell you first hand it is no fun and we do not need chasers glorifying for their own thrill, making light or making things look worse than they are.... We need more folks to just report the facts even if it is boring. Look how quick this blog clears out after minimal damage and how afterwords (landfall) not a peep if all is well....
Quoting 354. beell:

The Online Weather World Should Take a Chill Pill, Before an Actual Disaster Strikes/weather5280.com-July 1st, 2014
We need more folks to just report the facts even if it is boring. Look how quick this blog clears out after minimal damage and how afterwords (landfall) not a peep if all is well..


pretty much agree.......except for the fact...slow weather isn't boring..... we learned a lot from arthur about dry air intrusion and gulf stream warmth.....
365. beell



07/05 06Z GFS 200 mb heights @ 12Z Saturday



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 96W FROM 11N TO 23N AND IS MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE WAVE AXIS IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF 23N W OF
92W INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
Any tropical storm force winds reported in Nova Scotia?
I definitely learned much from this storm it was not boring to me.... The aftermath was not what storm chasers hoped for though....
Quoting 364. ricderr:

We need more folks to just report the facts even if it is boring. Look how quick this blog clears out after minimal damage and how afterwords (landfall) not a peep if all is well..


pretty much agree.......except for the fact...slow weather isn't boring..... we learned a lot from arthur about dry air intrusion and gulf stream warmth.....
Quoting 360. islander101010:

getting a nice rainy season down there in costa rica?
Actually it's been a bit below normal so far. Some heavy rains have been quite localized, but nothing really steady and widespread. I'm on the Atlantic Slope but well inland from the Caribbean, and here we have had showers in the afternoons most but by no means all days, and many just a sprinkle. For sure it's no monsoon!
Quoting 321. sar2401:


That was very helpful. Thanks!!!!
Can we stop at Mcdondalds first?
Hey Beell. Do you think something is gonna spin up off the Tail End of the front off the East Coast? Looks interesting this morning.
15:00z update track has moved slightly west of Okinawa making them get the worse part.

Quoting 357. hydrus:

This is interesting.



I'll believe it when it happens. There was supposed to be rain in June, but it never materialized either.
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014

...ARTHUR BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND DOWN EAST MAINE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.5N 66.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST.
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF ARTHUR WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND OVER THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE
CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT
LUNENBURG NOVA SCOTIA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM SURFACE DATA AND NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE REACHED PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
WARNING AREA TODAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE TODAY...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT HAS OVERTAKEN THE CIRCULATION OF ARTHUR.

STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER FAR EASTERN MAINE...WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA...AND NEW
BRUNSWICK...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SWELLS ARE ALSO
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THESE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100


why a new update at 11am if we have a ARTHUR Post-Tropical Cyclone
why a new update at 11am if we have a ARTHUR Post-Tropical Cyclone
375. beell
Quoting 370. rescueguy:

Hey Beell. Do you think something is gonna spin up off the Tail End of the front off the East Coast? Looks interesting this morning.


With the upper trough sitting just to the west, not anything purely tropical. Initially a surface wave on the boundary enhanced by some upper level support. But it may hang around a while off the east coast-something to watch for at least blob status.
Quoting 356. DDR:

It could and will get worse,im glad i wont be around 200 years in the future,basically anywhere above 11n latitude inthe caribbean will be the new Sahara.
Or in our case, underwater.

Quoting 363. forecaster1:

Thanks for sharing, This is what I get crap for here because so many doom casters want to see destruction and major damage, it is a thrill for them... After going through direct hits in St Lucie county in 2004, I can tell you first hand it is no fun and we do not need chasers glorifying for their own thrill, making light or making things look worse than they are.... We need more folks to just report the facts even if it is boring. Look how quick this blog clears out after minimal damage and how afterwords (landfall) not a peep if all is well....
Was thinking how quiet it is in here .... nobody even checking to see if bluenosedave got strong winds / rain up there in Yarmouth.... :o/

But it is typical. We like to joke in here you can tell where the storm is headed by which crowd of bloggers is biggest in the blog.... Wait until we get a storm threatening the Lesser Antilles.... nobody from FL or TX or LA or even NC will be on, but all kinds of Caribbeaners you didn't even know were members will be popping out of the woodwork...
Good morning all.

Well that escalated fast!



Hope everyone had a good, safe 4th!!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Or in our case, underwater.

Was thinking how quiet it is in here .... nobody even checking to see if bluenosedave got strong winds / rain up there in Yarmouth.... :o/

But it is typical. We like to joke in here you can tell where the storm is headed by which crowd of bloggers is biggest in the blog.... Wait until we get a storm threatening the Lesser Antilles.... nobody from FL or TX or LA or even NC will be on, but all kinds of Caribbeaners you didn't even know were members will be popping out of the woodwork...


I live in Florida, however as Arthur continued to move north and make the initial landfall I continued to track and post on here about the storm, afterwards The initial landfall I noticed that their was no posts about Arthur, so I continued to post about Arthur's tropical storm effects in Cape Cod and Nantucket, the 50mph wind, 63mph gusts. And then last night, bluenose actually posted on the blog, and I spoke with him about yarmouths deterioting conditions. I know for a fact that we have quite a bit of bloggers from NS area, so it would be nice to get some observations from them.

Btw, I am still tracking the storm, and it appears eastern Maine is getting hammered with 5+ inches of rain, and Nova Scotia is getting the majority of the wind.
Quoting 379. FIUStormChaser:



I live in Florida, however as Arthur continued to move north and make the initial landfall I continued to track and post on here about the storm, afterwards The initial landfall I noticed that their was no posts about Arthur, so I continued to post about Arthur's tropical storm effects in Cape Cod and Nantucket, the 50mph wind, 63mph gusts. And then last night, bluenose actually posted on the blog, and I spoke with him about yarmouths deterioting conditions. I know for a fact that we have quite a bit of bloggers from NS area, so it would be nice to get some observations from them.

Btw, I am still tracking the storm, and it appears eastern Maine is getting hammered with 5+ inches of rain, and Nova Scotia is getting the majority of the wind.
So... 1 FL blogger out of how many? lol.... I know there is a hardcore group of us in here who would track TCs on Jupiter, if it were possible... lol... but the bulk of the bloggers are satisfied to see the storm to their location. They they have other things to do, most frequently including restoring order after a strike or brush, or, if they are lucky, celebrating that it wasn't as bad as it could have been.....

Just pple being pple...
Weak little low off GA/SC coast. Weak steering too...





Moderate shear of ~20 kts.
For what it's worth, Arthur accumulated an ACE count of 6.8075. I believe that's the highest for a July storm since Dolly in 2008.
Quoting 364. ricderr:

We need more folks to just report the facts even if it is boring. Look how quick this blog clears out after minimal damage and how afterwords (landfall) not a peep if all is well..


pretty much agree.......except for the fact...slow weather isn't boring..... we learned a lot from arthur about dry air intrusion and gulf stream warmth.....


I don't really think that is about sensationalism -- the majority of the bloggers here are very interested in the formation of the storm. If you look at any discussion over a storm in the past, it always gets quiet after.
Completely blown away by how outstanding the HWRF did on Arthur. I think from the time Arthur was declared a tropical cyclone to landfall, the HWRF only deviated roughly 30 miles in either direction and was virtually dead on in intensity.
Neoguri has racked up so far 5.1325 lifting the WPAC numbers to 17.6025. I suspect those numbers will rise a lot in the coming days as Neoguri is forecast to be a SuperTyphoon.
Good grief, another blob off the east coast. Is there any chance of this thing doing an Arthur??
Quoting 384. CybrTeddy:

Completely blown away by how outstanding the HWRF did on Arthur. I think from the time Arthur was declared a tropical cyclone to landfall, the HWRF only deviated roughly 30 miles in either direction and was virtually dead on in intensity.


Don't forget the Euro that also did a great job sniffing the area of formation days before it occured.Was not the best performance by GFS as it had to play catchup.
Related to overactive doomcasting:
There is a rule against megalomania that would apply to overactive doomcasting. Flagged comments can be removed.

As online individuals in the aftermath...
Please be sensitive to how you comment after an event that does bring major disaster. Otherwise you fall into the category "weather voyeur who doesn't have a clue."

389. jpsb
Quoting 382. CybrTeddy:

For what it's worth, Arthur accumulated an ACE count of 6.8075. I believe that's the highest for a July storm since Dolly in 2008.


I wonder if that will be recalculated. Author does not appear to have been a Cat 2, strong TS / weak Cat 1 would be a better description based on what I have read thus far. The wind data should be good since the eye wall passed over coastal stations. I have yet to see a report of Cat1 winds. One would think a Cat 2 would at least have Cat 1 winds in most of it's eye wall.
Good Morning! A balmy start to the day!


Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Sat, 05 Jul 8:19 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Sat, 05 Jul 8:10 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
05 Jul 8:10 am PDT 75 52 45 E 3G04 OK
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 380. BahaHurican:

So... 1 FL blogger out of how many? lol.... I know there is a hardcore group of us in here who would track TCs on Jupiter, if it were possible... lol... but the bulk of the bloggers are satisfied to see the storm to their location. They they have other things to do, most frequently including restoring order after a strike or brush, or, if they are lucky, celebrating that it wasn't as bad as it could have been.....

Just pple being pple...


You bring up a valid point, but i believe what you say goes for bloggers everywhere. For example, when a storm threatens Texas, the most people on the blog minus the seasoned WU people are texas bloggers, the same goes for a Florida storm, Northeast storm, and even a Caribbean, Mexican, Central American storm. It's up to individuals like us, who are truly fascinated with weather and worried about the people in the path to make a difference. I know alot of Florida bloggers get a bad rap, which some deserve, but i feel like their are many like me as well and perhaps people even more passionate just overshadowed by the.. well.. dramacasters lol.

Quoting FIUStormChaser:
Any tropical storm force winds reported in Nova Scotia?

Yarmouth NS is reporting 55 mph sustained with 60 mph gusts so that's in-lie with TS winds and pretty much what I expected. The rain appears to be generally moderate, with about 2" so far. None of the Canadian media I can find is reporting any major damage. It's fairly chilly with a temperature of 53. That area is used to dealing with some pretty powerful nor'easters, and the remnants of Arthur are pretty similar.
Still a long way our and it is the CMC so yea..
What makes studying hurricanes even more interesting is ...... this BLOG. I think it is awesome, even if it is a slow day in the tropics!

JTWC Calling for Typhoon Neoguri to be between 90-130 kts as it approaches Southern Japan. Also has it tracking near Kadena Air Base.



The "Coon Dog" looks to be having some of Arthur's troubles -- a fair amount of dry air working its way into the core. That could be good for Japan as it was for the Outer Banks.
It looks like a lot of New England got battered by Arthur

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Wow, 19,000 without power in Maine

Link
136,000 without power here. Mine flickered for a second and came back on. Sustained winds are down but the gusts are still really high. Havnt seen any damage around me but I here there are reports of trees down.
401. flsky
Where is here??
Quoting 400. Dragod66:

136,000 without power here. Mine flickered for a second and came back on. Sustained winds are down but the gusts are still really high. Havnt seen any damage around me but I here there are reports of trees down.