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Category 4 Typhoon Neoguri Headed Towards Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:51 PM GMT on July 06, 2014

In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Neoguri has strengthened into a dangerous Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds this Sunday morning, and is headed west-northwest at 12 mph towards a Tuesday brush with Okinawa in Japan's Ryukyu island chain. Satellite images show a huge and well-organized system, with a prominent eye, and very intense eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. WInd shear is light, 5 - 10 knots, sea surface temperatures are a very warm 30 - 31°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth along the storm's path, giving the typhoon plenty of heat energy to power potential intensification into a Category 5 Super Typhoon. The 00Z Sunday runs of our two top track models, the GFS and European models, showed Neoguri passing about 50 - 100 miles south of Okinawa near 00 UTC Tuesday. Okinawa will be in the right front quadrant of Neoguri, but if the present track forecast holds, the top winds on the south end of the island will be barely hurricane force, 70 - 75 mph. The ocean is very deep offshore of Okinawa, which will allow huge waves to crash against the coast. Shortly after passing Okinawa, Neoguri will get caught by a trough of low pressure and begin curving to the north, and likely hit the Japanese island of Kyushu, where the city of Nagasaki lies, between 12 - 22 UTC on Wednesday. Although ocean temperatures will cool and wind shear will rise as Neoguri approaches Japan, weakening the storm, the typhoon is so large and powerful that it will likely make landfall at Category 2 or 3 strength, causing major damage in Japan. Neoguri is the 7th named storm and 3rd typhoon of the 2014 Western Pacific typhoon season. The other two typhoons of 2014--Typhoon Faxai and Typhoon Tapah--were both Category 1 storms. Neoguri is named after the Korean word for raccoon dog.


Figure 1. NASA astronaut Reid Wiseman tweeted this photo of Typhoon Neoguri from the International Space Station at 7 pm EDT July 5, 2014. At the time, Neoguri was a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds.

Links
Kadena AFB, Okinawa Facebook page

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr Masters!
http://www.thevanguard.ca/News/2014-07-05/article-3 788688/Arthur-leaves-Yarmouth-awash-in-fallen-tree s-and-branches/1

Damage in Yarmouth from Arthur. Still 100000 people without power in NS and 150000 people without power in NB.
Thanks Dr. Masters !
Thanks Dr. Masters!
This is in Gro's body of expertise!

Thanks Dr. Masters!
Neoguri is an amazing storm, one of the largest eyes I've ever seen !
Thanks Dr. Masters.

I would love to be able to see some video of the sea conditions on Okinawa Island when the conditions are at their worst.

I wonder if we will be lucky?

In the meantime, I'm truly hoping that this storm does not cause any bad situation there.
Thanks Dr. Masters, what a stunning shot from space. Scary beautiful system, can't wait to see what it looks like when it fills convection back into it's northern quadrant after dry air issues there in the last 12 hours.
Hey Gro, Is there anything to this?

If it where August I would say this is looking promising

Quoting 8. superpete:


Thank you for the Sunday update.


Neoguri in its reign. (I really like those blue marble animations, provided by National German Weather Service DWD. Source).
Regaining strength.

TPPN10 PGTW 061516

A. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI)

B. 06/1432Z

C. 19.3N

D. 129.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG (+1.0
ADJUSTMENT FOR BLACK) YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. PT AGREES; MET WAS
6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/0929Z 18.6N 130.8E SSMS
06/1043Z 18.7N 130.5E SSMS


LONG
Thanks for the Update, Dr. Masters.
Quoting 5. HurricaneHunterJoe:

This is in Gro's body of expertise!




The BLOB! with Steve McQueen. I have this movie.
nice looking wave in the deep tropics. under low wind shear. very dry air ahead of this wave to the west and north of the wave axis.
Neoguri just coming into view on Japan Radar

Link Japan Meteorological Agency

Meanwhile...violent lightning here in NSB right now.
Link NSB Radar (NWS Melbourne)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak surface trough just east of the coast of northeastern
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is expected to move northeastward around 15 mph over the next
several days, and strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent
significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 18. Climate175:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak surface trough just east of the coast of northeastern
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is expected to move northeastward around 15 mph over the next
several days, and strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent
significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




From previous blog

Quoting 455. Neapolitan:

I'm truly sorry if I hurt anyone's tender feelings But decades of thoughtful instruction, mountains of data, tens of thousands of peer-reviewed papers, hundreds of billions of dollars in destroyed property, millions of lost lives, and climatic disruption on a scale man has never before witnessed don't appear to have gotten through. You have a better idea? We're all ears...
Quoting 472. Naga5000:

Convert? Conspiracy theorists are lost causes. They believe nonsense that cannot be swayed by logic, facts, or empirical evidence. It's not insulting to call out that sort of misaligned fanatical belief in something that doesn't exist, in fact it's the opposite. It is insulting to scientists and researchers that get trashed with accusations of data manipulation, academic misconduct, and engaging in professional deceit in the name of some grand unprovable conspiracy, or because "you" don't understand basic math and physics. Insulting indeed.




Nice responses. I have already offered Nea to come see the way I live (because he lives in Naples as do I) and I offer you the same Naga. A better idea??? how about LEAD BY EXAMPLE!! Math and physics will get you no where when insults are combined. Earths physical harmony is at stake so why not start with your own physical and verbal actions and let that message be absorbed by those around you. :)
Quoting 20. FIUStormChaser:






Neoguri is at 935 mb with 100 knot winds
Link
Forecast to get to 910 mb
Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N27°25'(27.4°)
E126°40'(126.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM
Where's Grothar?

It would be cool/ironic if the front that caused Arthur to recurve after making landfall and transition into an extratropical cyclone led to the development of a new cyclone near where Arthur originated. Upper-level winds aren't as conducive this time, and time is limited because there is no blocking ridge.

wow...we just got hail!

Special Statement
Statement as of 1:29 PM EDT on July 06, 2014
...A significant weather advisory is in effect for strong wind gusts between 45 and 55 mph and small hail over southeastern Volusia County...
* until 215 PM EDT.

At 124 PM EDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a storm capable of producing strong winds and small hail over Edgewater...moving southeast at 5 mph.

Locations in the path of the storm which may experience strong winds and small hail include Apollo Beach and Bethune Beach.

The primary threat will be frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and gusty winds of 45 to 50 mph...which can cause unsecured objects to blow around...snap tree limbs or cause power outages. Heavy rainfall will temporarily reduce visibility. Seek shelter indoors until the storm passes.
You can see Hurricane Arthur/ Front leave a piece of moisture behind off of Georgia/Florida:
29. SLU

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061723
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak surface trough just east of the coast of northeastern
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is expected to move northeastward around 15 mph over the next
several days, and strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent
significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




I think 10% is reasonable.
Quoting 25. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Where's Grothar?



napping?
Quoting 10. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Hey Gro, Is there anything to this?





Yes. Very good conditions for development.
Quoting 21. Abacosurf:

From previous blog

Quoting 455. Neapolitan:

I'm truly sorry if I hurt anyone's tender feelings But decades of thoughtful instruction, mountains of data, tens of thousands of peer-reviewed papers, hundreds of billions of dollars in destroyed property, millions of lost lives, and climatic disruption on a scale man has never before witnessed don't appear to have gotten through. You have a better idea? We're all ears...
Quoting 472. Naga5000:

Convert? Conspiracy theorists are lost causes. They believe nonsense that cannot be swayed by logic, facts, or empirical evidence. It's not insulting to call out that sort of misaligned fanatical belief in something that doesn't exist, in fact it's the opposite. It is insulting to scientists and researchers that get trashed with accusations of data manipulation, academic misconduct, and engaging in professional deceit in the name of some grand unprovable conspiracy, or because "you" don't understand basic math and physics. Insulting indeed.




Nice responses. I have already offered Nea to come see the way I live (because he lives in Naples as do I) and I offer you the same Naga. A better idea??? how about LEAD BY EXAMPLE!! Math and physics will get you no where when insults are combined. Earths physical harmony is at stake so why not start with your own physical and verbal actions and let that message be absorbed by those around you. :)



As I have said before, I live the best way I can based on rational economic decision making. This isn't about me or you, or Neapolitan, and quite frankly, I don't care about how you live while trying to make it seem like you somehow are better or more responsible than others.

This is about science denial, it is about corporations and politicians playing Americans for fools while they continue to burn fossil fuels with no regard for the consequences while all the while shouting fake science, religious objection, and pitting citizen against citizen in some false ideological warfare. This is about ignoring years of research and science, it is about the dumbing down of society that allows people to believe the Daily Mail over easily accessible research and organizations that help communicate the research to those without the needed knowledge to comprehend it.

My verbal actions are exactly what they are, total disdain for those who willfully ignore reality then choose to spread their ignorance around, acting like it's a badge of respect to be so uninformed.
Live lightning map Europe with a line of severe storms approaching/crossing the border to Germany. Already heavy damage and injuries reported from Luxemburg due to strong winds and large hail. Warnings spread out towards my region in Mainz on Rhine River.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Where's Grothar?


They sent him for his nap.
He'll be back later.

Nice blob though, although it cannot be Officially Classified as a Blob until Gro authorises it.

A shame, that.
Quoting Grothar:



Yes. Very good conditions for development.

Oh. There you are.
Greetings, Sire.
here we go again!
Quoting 25. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Where's Grothar?




Now you know I showed you that wave two days ago and I got "The dust will kill it", It will never make it across the Atlantic. Shear is too high"

I guess it's time to pull out my globes








NOOOOOOOOO!! NOT AGAIN
Neoguri reminds me of Typhoon Soulik from last year:



Well defined eye on Neoguri.

Wind shear is only 5-10 knots over the eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave. Dry air is the only inhibiting factor for the next five days, until wind shear climbs to 20 knots near 40w and 10-20n. A Dorian like system is potentially possible until dry air interferes with development.
Another area of disturbed weather near the coast of NE Florida and SE Georgia exists as an area of increasing 850mb vorticity exists at the tail end of a cold front. If convection can persist the next 24-48 hours then a surface low can develop under weaker shear levels as an anticyclone develops over the region. Potential path is northeast from current location out to sea. 10% chance of development is likely adequate enough at this time.
Live streaming weather cam at Mainz University (Institut fuer Physik der Atmosphaere) looking north. Harbinger of a newly formed storm comes into view.

[Edit: Okay, watching the development of the - weakening - line, I think I'll survive it, lol]
Quoting 36. pottery:


They sent him for his nap.
He'll be back later.

Nice blob though, although it cannot be Officially Classified as a Blob until Gro authorises it.

A shame, that.


I have to give it blob status because it is an impressive wave for this time of year. But I still think there may be development in the Gulf of Honduras.
And I wasn't napping. I just have to rest my eyes for two hours a day.

Boomers building in houston again, I am enjoying these daily storms. They are chipping away at the rain deficient we have had for a few years.
Tropical Wave over eastern Atlantic Ocean showing signs of organization.
51. SLU
July drought in the ECAR.


Red Flag at the Coke Zero 400. (113 of 160 laps)
Quoting 52. PedleyCA:


Red Flag at the Coke Zero 400. (113 of 160 laps)


Wreckfest
SUBJ: TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 014
WTPN31 PGTW 060900
1. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 18.5N 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

Neoguri is likely a Category 5.

TPPN10 PGTW 061819

A. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI)

B. 06/1732Z

C. 19.7N

D. 129.1E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. MET AGREES AND PT YIELDS A 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

31 degrees F on the top of Greenland ice cap, right now according to Weather Underground.

Summit (04416) Elev 10522 ft | 72.58 °N, 38.45 °W
Nice Wave off the African Coast. Will it hold together as it travels across the tropical Atlantic? Most likely not but anything is possible. Never the less it is a very healthy looking system!
Quoting Grothar:


I have to give it blob status because it is an impressive wave for this time of year. But I still think there may be development in the Gulf of Honduras.

Good.
Now I can look forward to some rain !

Of course, if I don't get any, I will be Miffed.
And you will bear the brunt of my Miffyness.
Sorry about that.

:):))
Quoting SLU:
July drought in the ECAR.


We are on Water Restriction notice here. Tobago as well.
It's drier that dry.
Quoting 60. pottery:


Good.
Now I can look forward to some rain !

Of course, if I don't get any, I will be Miffed.
And you will bear the brunt of my Miffyness.
Sorry about that.

:):))
Quoting 60. pottery:


Good.
Now I can look forward to some rain !

Of course, if I don't get any, I will be Miffed.
And you will bear the brunt of my Miffyness.
Sorry about that.

:):))


And a neologist, as well.
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Tropical Wave over eastern Atlantic Ocean showing signs of organization.

Looks good right now.
Too much dry air ahead of it though.
Maybe conditions will improve before it gets to the islands.
We can only hope.
Quoting 61. pottery:


We are on Water Restriction notice here. Tobago as well.
It's drier that dry.


If the next two months continue with no big rains in PR,water restrictions will begin here.
Quoting Grothar:


And a neologist, as well.

Twice, eh ?
I had no idea…..
I'm about sick of seeing low pressure form off the southeast coast of the U.S.

The same pattern that has caused this, the endless west flow over Florida, the drought in the Caribbean, well above normal rain in the plains/midwest, how long can it possibly go on for?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


If the next two months continue with no big rains in PR,water restrictions will begin here.


Sorry to hear that.
I cannot accept that these conditions will persist.
But then, I'm an eternal optimist.
Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm about sick of seeing low pressure form off the southeast coast of the U.S.

The same pattern that has caused this, the endless west flow over Florida, the drought in the Caribbean, well above normal rain in the plains/midwest, how long can it possibly go on for?

Let us know when you find the answer to that, please.
Quoting Grothar:
And I wasn't napping. I just have to rest my eyes for two hours a day.


I wasn't napping either. However, my daily check for eyelid cracks reveals only a few minor fractures, so I'm good for another day. I see we have "Disturbance 1"...is this a new thing added with the five day outlook? I don't see an invest on the Navy site, so I guess this is a pre-invest disturbance, depending on how the disturbance develops. Very confusing for an old guy. In an interesting case of deja vu all over again, it looks like a cold front will be making it to the East Coast again on Thursday. It appears this won't be as strong a cold front as the current version, and Disturbance 1 should take a more northeasterly track than Arthur, as well as having more shear to deal with than Arthur. 10% chance seems reasonable at this point.

The other blob coming off Africa looks good, as have many of the blobs coming off Africa over the past several years. Lots of dry air and SAL ahead of it, however, so development chances don't look good there either. Shear in the BOC and Caribbean looks to be relaxing some now but no signs of 850 mb vorticity at all. The easterly Trades are still blowing strong across the Caribbean, although dry air is less prevalent. Something should start happening there, but not in the near future, it appears.

We had an overcast night with debris clouds originating from Disturbance 1, giving me an overnight low of 73 compared to 64 the previous night. It's just some scattered cumulus now, with a temperature of 94 and a dewpoint of 68, so moisture is beginning to filter back in. In spite of my most intense wishcasting effort to date, it looks like disturbance 1 will not cooperate by moving west, so I'm stuck waiting for this front on Thursday. With each run, it gets weaker as it gets into Alabama, and now looks like it will stall or wash out over me. That can sometimes serve as a focusing mechanism for storms or sometimes just do nothing. I hope it means some storms. It's been 10 days with no rain and some serious heat. My lawn is starting to look pretty sickly, and the amount of time I have to spend watering is starting to impact my daily eyelid checking time. :-)
Quoting 65. pottery:


Twice, eh ?
I had no idea…..


My finger slipped. My finger slipped.
850mb vorticity is strengthening with the disturbance off the coast of FL and GA. This currently lacks any convection organization at this time, but I expect this to change once wind shear dies down.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Neoguri is likely a Category 5.

TPPN10 PGTW 061819

A. TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI)

B. 06/1732Z

C. 19.7N

D. 129.1E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. MET AGREES AND PT YIELDS A 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN


Unfortunately, raccoon dog is not looking as mangy as he was last night. What a gigantic eye. TA, I'm sure you know (because I don't), but what is the biggest eye in a hurricane/typhoon that we know of?
Quoting 68. pottery:


Let us know when you find the answer to that, please.


I wish I had the answer. This is honestly the longest persistence of a weird synoptic pattern I've seen since I can remember. I've never seen such imbalance of precip across Florida during the rainy season. Interior Florida can't get a break from the rain, but here on the west coast, we are getting just enough rain to keep the grass green, in other words, about as much rain as we get in the Spring. 6 months into the rainy season and the drainage ditches and ponds are still as low on water around here as they normally are in May. Yet many areas just 20-30 miles inland have had heavy rain virtually every day over the same period. That is thanks to a persistent west flow.

Also, I don't think I've ever seen the Caribbean so persistently dry this time of year, its terrible.
Quoting 66. Jedkins01:

I'm about sick of seeing low pressure form off the southeast coast of the U.S.

The same pattern that has caused this, the endless west flow over Florida, the drought in the Caribbean, well above normal rain in the plains/midwest, how long can it possibly go on for?


You know the way the BOC seemed to be a magnet last year ... could E of Florida be starting a pattern for the season, as in everything will seem to be happening there ?
18z Best Track up to 130kts.

08W NEOGURI 140706 1800 19.7N 129.1E WPAC 130 926
Quoting 49. mcdsara1:

Boomers building in houston again, I am enjoying these daily storms. They are chipping away at the rain deficient we have had for a few years.

Not to mention they have been doing a nice job of keeping the afternoon temps down around here.


Neoguri is certainly having a good night. Although still rather compact overall, intense convection is expanding. It certainly appears to have worked out any issues it was having with its eyewall and I would expect continued strengthening, by the looks of it.

BTW, does anyone have a link to the GFS shear forecast? My link to the one from fsu.edu seems to have changed address or something. Thanks
Quoting Jedkins01:


I wish I had the answer. This is honestly the longest persistence of a weird synoptic pattern I've seen since I can remember. I've never seen such imbalance of precip across Florida during the rainy season. Interior Florida can't get a break from the rain, but here on the west coast, we are getting just enough rain to keep the grass green, in other words, about as much rain as we get in the Spring. 6 months into the rainy season and the drainage ditches and ponds are still as low on water around here as they normally are in May. Yet many areas just 20-30 miles inland have had heavy rain virtually every day over the same period. That is thanks to a persistent west flow.

Also, I don't think I've ever seen the Caribbean so persistently dry this time of year, its terrible.


Yeah, a strange and persistent set-up.
Worrying.
Quoting 78. GatorWX:



Neoguri is certainly having a good night. Although still rather compact overall, intense convection is expanding. It certainly appears to have worked out any issues it was having with its eyewall and I would expect continued strengthening, by the looks of it.

BTW, does anyone have a link to the GFS shear forecast? My link to the one from fsu.edu seems to have changed address or something. Thanks


Link
Quoting 73. Jedkins01:



I wish I had the answer. This is honestly the longest persistence of a weird synoptic pattern I've seen since I can remember. I've never seen such imbalance of precip across Florida during the rainy season. Interior Florida can't get a break from the rain, but here on the west coast, we are getting just enough rain to keep the grass green, in other words, about as much rain as we get in the Spring. 6 months into the rainy season and the drainage ditches and ponds are still as low on water around here as they normally are in May. Yet many areas just 20-30 miles inland have had heavy rain virtually every day over the same period. That is thanks to a persistent west flow.

Also, I don't think I've ever seen the Caribbean so persistently dry this time of year, its terrible.


Concerning the "weird synoptic pattern"
Wonder about it my non-scientific self. I do wonder though how what we are seeing is being impacted by the "weirdness" that is being seen in the earths magnetic field?
I thought last night this area looked suspicious. It looks as it will have to sit there for a couple days... Warm water good ventilation soon??? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_12Z.gif 1. A weak surface trough just east of the coast of northeastern
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is expected to move northeastward around 15 mph over the next
several days, and strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent
significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Quoting 77. LoneStarWeather:


Not to mention they have been doing a nice job of keeping the afternoon temps down around here.


I was thinking the same thing ...me electric bill hasn't blown me away yet this year
This long weekend from work has been very enjoyable weather wise
Quoting 78. GatorWX:



Neoguri is certainly having a good night. Although still rather compact overall, intense convection is expanding. It certainly appears to have worked out any issues it was having with its eyewall and I would expect continued strengthening, by the looks of it.

BTW, does anyone have a link to the GFS shear forecast? My link to the one from fsu.edu seems to have changed address or something. Thanks


Has not updated since friday Link


but Levi site has this one



200mb-850mb Wind Shear (with Low Centers)
Neoguri appears to have become annular..Which usually means that it will not weaken as rapidly as a typhoon with normal attributes.

Quoting 82. forecaster1:

I thought last night this area looked suspicious. It looks as it will have to sit there for a couple days... Warm water good ventilation soon??? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_12Z.gif 1. A weak surface trough just east of the coast of northeastern
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is expected to move northeastward around 15 mph over the next
several days, and strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent
significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An upper-level low located over the Florida Panhandle is increasing shear in the area, so that's a negative. Sea surface temperatures may be warm, but without high pressure positioned north of the disturbance, it won't have time to sit and meander like Arthur did. Chances for development are low, and it shouldn't significantly impact land.
Quoting 85. hydrus:

Neoguri appears to have become annular..Which usually means that it will not weaken as rapidly as a typhoon with normal attributes.




Also it looks like a change in direction is coming very soon as it moves a little slower.
Thats alot of rain off the East Coast.
89. JRRP
Quoting VR46L:


Has not updated since friday Link


but Levi site has this one



200mb-850mb Wind Shear (with Low Centers)


Link
Quoting 88. hydrus:

Thats alot of rain off the East Coast.

Hello Hydrus, please check your wundermail.
Quoting 85. hydrus:

Neoguri appears to have become annular..Which usually means that it will not weaken as rapidly as a typhoon with normal attributes.


Annular? really?
Quoting 81. txjac:



Concerning the "weird synoptic pattern"
Wonder about it my non-scientific self. I do wonder though how what we are seeing is being impacted by the "weirdness" that is being seen in the earths magnetic field?


So far there has been no definitive link between global weather and climate and Earth's magnetic field. The research has pointed that magnetic fields may have strong regional influences in the ionosphere (raising and lowering the densest part of height depending on location) while CO2 has been shown to have lowered the height of the densest part by about 5 km) Link

There have been plenty of conspiracy theories involving the magnetic field and weather, but a good post from Discover Magazine debunks those pretty heavily. Link
Quoting 85. hydrus:

Neoguri appears to have become annular..Which usually means that it will not weaken as rapidly as a typhoon with normal attributes.


Was waiting for that ;)

Thanks VR and Gro for links!!
Quoting 91. Gearsts:

Annular? really?

I agree, there is still tons of convection to the south, it needs to shed that first.
A week ago or so, I made mention about the SST profile similarity between now and in 2002 and the fact 2002 was chosen as an analog year for 2014. What's interesting is that most of the storms in 2014, especially early on in the year, developed non-tropically (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Edouard, Fay, and Gustav), usually associated with a trough split. It's certainly possible that 2014 could end up being similar with the majority of tropical cyclones developing off the tail ends of fronts like Hurricane Arthur just did.
Quoting 84. VR46L:



Has not updated since friday Link


but Levi site has this one



200mb-850mb Wind Shear (with Low Centers)


Levi really does produce some nice graphics.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_12Z.gif So i suppose I will ignore the High left behind on the NC coast ...
Quoting 86. TropicalAnalystwx13:


An upper-level low located over the Florida Panhandle is increasing shear in the area, so that's a negative. Sea surface temperatures may be warm, but without high pressure positioned north of the disturbance, it won't have time to sit and meander like Arthur did. Chances for development are low, and it shouldn't significantly impact land.
How wide is Neoguri's eye wall ?? it looks massive ..
100. SLU
Quoting 61. pottery:


We are on Water Restriction notice here. Tobago as well.
It's drier that dry.


Doesn't seem it will get better soon. We've been under restrictions since April...
Quoting 91. Gearsts:

Annular? really?
Hello Gearsts.. I should rephrase. I see some characteristics the remind me of an annular type system.
Quoting 100. SLU:



Doesn't seem it will get better soon. We've been under restrictions since April...


here in central Illinois we had one of the wettest Junes on record with over 13 inches being recorded here at my house .. officially 9.6 inches fell where normal rainfall amounts would be just 3.53 inches ..

last year we were under drought conditions ..
Neoguri doesn't look annular to me. Not symmetrical enough, and too many bands. Here's an annular hurricane (Isobel).

Quoting 99. whitewabit:

How wide is Neoguri's eye wall ?? it looks massive ..
25 Nautical miles...Here is the rest..

1. For meteorologists.
2. 6 hour summary and analysis.
Typhoon (TY) 08w (neoguri), located approximately 476 nm south-
southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan has tracked west-
northwestward at 11 knots over the past six hours. Animated enhanced
infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts the system has
significantly deepened as it became highly symmetrical with tightly
curved deep convective feeder bands wrapping into a well-defined 25-
nm eye. This is further supported by a 061042z ssmis microwave image
which shows a small intense convective core and improved convective
bands over the southern semi-Circle. Additionally, animated water
vapor imagery continues showing robust radial outflow supporting the
current intensification. The current position is based on the eye
feature in the eir animation with high confidence. The initial
intensity of 120 knots is hedged slightly higher than congruent
Dvorak current intensity estimates from all reporting agencies.
Upper-level analysis indicates the vertical wind shear (vws) remains
favorable as TY 08w tracks along the southern periphery of a deep-
layered subtropical ridge (str) to the north.
3. Forecast reasoning.
A. There is no change to the forecast philosophy since the
previous prognostic reasoning message.
B. TY 08w is forecast to continue along a west-northwestward
track through tau 24 before turning northward as the str recedes
under the influence of a series of transitory mid-latitude lows
approaching from the northwest. The cyclone will crest the ridge and
begin to turn to the north-northeast after tau 48. Due to very
favorable environment conditions, further intensification is
expected over the next 36 hours with a peak intensity of 140 knots.
Beyond tau 48, cooling sea surface temperatures (sst) and increasing
vws ahead of the mid-latitude westerlies will slowly weaken the
system.
C. After tau 72, TY neoguri will begin to accelerate
northeastward towards Kyushu, Japan, as the steering str continues
to recede. The increased mid-latitude interaction, decreasing SST
values, and land interaction will cause its rapid deterioration.
However, TY 08w will remain an intense system as it makes landfall
into southern Japan. By tau 96, TY neoguri will begin extra-tropical
transition (ett) and will complete ett by tau 120 as it becomes
embedded within the mid-latitude trough and gain frontal
characteristics. Available dynamic model trackers remains in tight
agreement, lending high confidence in the jtwc track forecast which
is positioned close to multi-model consensus.
Neoguri is now a SuperTyphoon.

WTPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 016
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 19.7N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160

This is a monster. Whoever is in its path will likely verify this when its over.

hydrus .. TKS ..
Quoting 106. hydrus:

This is a monster. Whoever is in its path will likely verify this when its over.




Sadly true .. flooding and then the ever present mud slides will effect many on all of the islands effected ..
Quoting 83. txjac:



I was thinking the same thing ...me electric bill hasn't blown me away yet this year
This long weekend from work has been very enjoyable weather wise

Yes, in the shade I would dare to say it is almost cool with the breeze blowing like it is. Not your typical July 4th weekend in these parts for sure.
110. vis0

Quoting 39. Grothar:



Now you know I showed you that wave two days ago and I got "The dust will kill it", It will never make it across the Atlantic. Shear is too high"

I guess it's time to pull out my globes






Is this a Sat img or Gro's calke after the candles melted it?? :{p
Quoting 101. hydrus:

Hello Gearsts.. I should rephrase. I see some characteristics the remind me of an annular type system.


That sounds a little more reasonable. I was thinking somewhat the same. It's just one of those "off limits" terms, ya know? The cdo definitely is compact for such a large eye. In this regard, it reminded me too of an annular system, but that, it's a far cry from. :p

Looks to have leveled off intensification-wise.

Are there any maps which provide an image of the temperatures at different layers of the troposphere?
my bill this month is the 1st one of the season that made me say, sheesh its hot.
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

Not to mention they have been doing a nice job of keeping the afternoon temps down around here.
114. SLU
Quoting 102. whitewabit:



here in central Illinois we had one of the wettest Junes on record with over 13 inches being recorded here at my house .. officially 9.6 inches fell where normal rainfall amounts would be just 3.53 inches ..

last year we were under drought conditions ..


Wow. Lucky.

El Nino-type years bring us painfully dry weather. La Nina years are far more interesting weather-wise.
That huge tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa is doing a great job of clearing up some of the dust in the Central Atlantic, but looks like another burst is starting to emerge.



Also, here's another example on an annular system:



:)

Neoguri looks nasty though. I hope we can get some good info from the weather stations of the Japanese islands when it passes them. Does anyone have any idea what Neoguri's storm surge is going to look like? I would think it'll be quite high.
Quoting 113. mcdsara1:

my bill this month is the 1st one of the season that made me say, sheesh its hot.

What part of town are you in? I'm in the southwest, out near Richmond. No boomers for me today yet. I did hear some thunder earlier but most of the good stuff has been near Katy and just south of Spring. Also still a few working down around the Lake Jackson area. Got a nice storm yesterday with a high rain rate of 4.97" per hour.
I am in the north east corner near montgomery county. There were some decent rumbles, no real rain here, but the clouds help to keep the temps down a bit.
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

What part of town are you in? I'm in the southwest, out near Richmond. No boomers for me today yet. I did hear some thunder earlier but most of the good stuff has been near Katy and just south of Spring. Also still a few working down around the Lake Jackson area. Got a nice storm yesterday with a high rain rate of 4.97" per hour.
Quoting 114. SLU:



Wow. Lucky.

El Nino-type years bring us painfully dry weather. La Nina years are far more interesting weather-wise.


during El Nino we usually are just slightly ahead in rainfall but are hotter it seems ..

but this June was well above normal !! I had 13.74 inches and July is starting off wet also with showers expected all week and I already have had .73 and its only the 6th ..

but the farm fields look better then I have seen them in probably 10-12 years .. corn grew 6 feet in just over 15 days .. you could hear it growing at night in the still moist air .. popping sounds all night ..
Quoting 118. mcdsara1:

I am in the north east corner near montgomery county. There were some decent rumbles, no real rain here, but the clouds help to keep the temps down a bit.


My weather station is showing 88 degrees right now. May have to grab a light jacket if this keeps up! ;)
121. txjac
Woo-hoo fellow bloggers in my area!

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
247 PM CDT sun Jul 6 2014

Discussion...
another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms have formed
today thanks to day time heating. Coverage has been less today
than yesterday though. Southeast Texas will continue to remain
between upper level ridges over the next couple of days. This will
allow a weak upper level low to drift over the area tomorrow into
Tuesday. Precipitable water values will stay in the 1.5 to 2.0" range over this
period as well. Because of this the chance of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms looks to persist through the work week.

Friday into Saturday the upper level trough over Canada will
continue to to push east allowing the upper level ridge to also
push east. Models continue to show slightly different solutions.
In general the ridge looks to be centered over Oklahoma. This
would mean warmer temperatures for our area. Will wait for models
to come into better agreement with the placement of the ridge
before going warmer. 23
Waves of 50 feet expected as it passes the southern Japanese Islands:



Then 30-50 feet tall waves as it hits Japan



The grey (30-50 feet) is meant to be the bright pink colour.

Looks like it'll bring big waves to Northern parts of The Philippines, Taiwan, parts of China and South Korea too.

Link for the wave animations.
Quoting 98. forecaster1:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/USA_12Z.gif So i suppose I will ignore the High left behind on the NC coast ...

That high is quickly moving eastward...


Okinawa is very typhoon savvy folk, as I spent from sept 82-83 there at usmc, camp hansen.

Nino 3.4 is trolling us.

Quoting 121. txjac:

The very presence of clouds indicates the Death Ridge hasn't set in yet, but it's about to. Quite
a bit later than some recent years. If we could just get somethin goin goin in the GOM to destabilize
us further..... MJO's in our favor, just waiting on a Jet Stream dip?
131. flsky
I've been hearing thunder over your way most of the day. Never had hail up my way - hope it didn't do any damage.
Quoting 27. Chicklit:

wow...we just got hail!

Special Statement
Statement as of 1:29 PM EDT on July 06, 2014
...A significant weather advisory is in effect for strong wind gusts between 45 and 55 mph and small hail over southeastern Volusia County...
* until 215 PM EDT.

At 124 PM EDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a storm capable of producing strong winds and small hail over Edgewater...moving southeast at 5 mph.

Locations in the path of the storm which may experience strong winds and small hail include Apollo Beach and Bethune Beach.

The primary threat will be frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and gusty winds of 45 to 50 mph...which can cause unsecured objects to blow around...snap tree limbs or cause power outages. Heavy rainfall will temporarily reduce visibility. Seek shelter indoors until the storm passes.

Time for some good news.

NASA Photos Show Dramatic Proof of U.S. Air Pollution in Decline

Link
Quoting 128. MLTracking:

Nino 3.4 is trolling us.





nop its not i think are ch of seeing a EL nino this year has this gone poof i think where now heading for a LA nino
134. txjac
Quoting 130. redwagon:

Quoting 121. txjac:

The very presence of clouds indicates the Death Ridge hasn't set in yet, but it's about to. Quite
a bit later than some recent years. If we could just get somethin goin goin in the GOM to destabilize
us further..... MJO's in our favor, just waiting on a Jet Stream dip?


No! No death ridge. Those were miserable days/months/years ...too hot.
Clouds are my friends
The upward pulse of the MJO remains in the Atlantic for the time being, but should continue off to the east in subsequent days. This should leave us with the downward pulse, where upper-level divergence (air moving apart) is replaced with upper-level convergence (air colliding). When the air collides, it sinks, drying out the atmosphere and making it more difficult for tropical cyclone formation. Going solely off the MJO, it might not be until late July into early August when we get our next named storm. However, this is really only a good proxy for deep tropics storms (from tropical waves) and becomes a little less useful the further into the season we advance. Frontal storms -- like Arthur -- can and do occur in the unfavorable phase of the MJO.

Quoting Tazmanian:



nop its not i think are ch of seeing a EL nino this year has this gone poof i think where now heading for a LA nino


BAH !!

I don't care what it's called anymore.
Just send some rain this way.
Quoting 134. txjac:



No! No death ridge. Those were miserable days/months/years ...too hot.
Clouds are my friends


I'm happy with 100% cloud cover from June - September. Let the sun harass other states, we deserve a break.
Hello All,

I survived Arthur of 2014 :)..went to the beach yesterday (Kure Beach) who by the way had a wind gust of 71mph per the NWS, Wilmington, NC..saw nothing but a light pole that fell onto another one while there so the area faired pretty well..I see there is a yellow X by Florida (not sure what the X means?) somehow doesn't look like this will be a slow season at least for the east coast....
139. SLU
Quoting 119. whitewabit:



during El Nino we usually are just slightly ahead in rainfall but are hotter it seems ..

but this June was well above normal !! I had 13.74 inches and July is starting off wet also with showers expected all week and I already have had .73 and its only the 6th ..

but the farm fields look better then I have seen them in probably 10-12 years .. corn grew 6 feet in just over 15 days .. you could hear it growing at night in the still moist air .. popping sounds all night ..


That's nice. The farmers would be happy.
Quoting whitewabit:


during El Nino we usually are just slightly ahead in rainfall but are hotter it seems ..

but this June was well above normal !! I had 13.74 inches and July is starting off wet also with showers expected all week and I already have had .73 and its only the 6th ..

but the farm fields look better then I have seen them in probably 10-12 years .. corn grew 6 feet in just over 15 days .. you could hear it growing at night in the still moist air .. popping sounds all night ..

In theory, we should be cooler and wetter than normal. That was true until June. It has been hot almost the entire month, with a total rainfall of 3.29" compared to a normal 6.01". There's one little cell that keeps wandering around the area. I got about four raindrops when I went to the store, but it's starting to rebuild across the river, so maybe it will come back and give me eight raindrops. :-0
Quoting unknowncomic:
Time for some good news.

NASA Photos Show Dramatic Proof of U.S. Air Pollution in Decline

Link

It's a double edged sword. All the aerosols pollutants from things like nitrogen dioxide caused respiratory problems, but they also made a blanket in the atmosphere that delayed global warming. People with respiratory problems are now better off but we're warming faster than ever. It seems like we can't win sometimes.
Quoting 133. Tazmanian:




nop its not i think are ch of seeing a EL nino this year has this gone poof i think where now heading for a LA nino
CFS shows a dip in SST anomaly then the El nino later this year. What we learn is that this will not be anything record breaking or even strong just a normal el nino.
Quoting 140. Tazmanian:



this poor a big buket of water over your head and dump it on you and there your rain
lol
Quoting MLTracking:
Nino 3.4 is trolling us.


It certainly seemed, from the sensible weather pattern here in SE AL during the spring, that El Nino was building. Now, I'm not so sure, since we have gone to almost no rain and hot conditions. Seems like the chances for a strong El Nino are fading fast, and an El Nino beginning before September at the earliest seems even more unlikely. I think we'll still get El Nino conditions, just later and much weaker than some were beating the drums about.
Just a quick question: I know that the cold cloud tops are indicative of the power of the storm, but could someone give me a quick explanation of what the mechanism is that cools them and what the relationship is between storm strength and coolness of the clouds?

Does it indicate that all the heat energy powering the storm is being released downward? Is it an indication of the efficiency of how well the storm is channeling the heat energy?

What's the difference between a very low pressure storm, say minimum pressure is 960 mb with cold cloud tops and the same storm with warmer cloud tops? Or does that just not ever happen.

Thanks.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That high is quickly moving eastward...



None of the major models are developing that low so far. It looks like conditions aren't favorable, but the dry air is decreasing and the shear is beginning to relax. As long as the ULL follows the general path of the front, it will go out to sea, which seems like the most probably solution. Still, those disorganized blobs off the SE coast in July make me nervous...
Good night greetings, after I *survived* (lol) the line of storms which crossed my place and the rest of central Europe earlier (and is still progressing towards the northeast). Fortunately it wasn't as catastrophic as the one which caused damage of private property of 650 millions Euro one month ago at pentecost in western Germany. However, obviously a lot of severe wind damage happened tonight nevertheless. Every time winds create howling noises around nearby cathedral in my place - as they did this evening - I know that probably conditions outside the protected center of the town may be severe. Indeed, fire brigades were out in full force this evening; open air wine festivals came to a sudden end with flattened tents, a lot of trees are down ... you know the schedule. More news will be available tomorrow I guess.


This evening in Grefath, Western border of Germany.


Another spectacular view over the photogenic shelf cloud over Rheine, Germany this afternoon. Source: Florian Menke. Source: Severe Weather Europe with more pictures. (My own weren't that spectacular ;-)


Saved loop of the progress of lightning this evening (France and adjacent countries). Source for updates.

After all, I'm glad we received some rains which should be augmented the days to come. Excuse me for this little interruption in watching bad bad Neoguri (best wishes to Japan!). Good night and a good start into the next week.
149. OCF
The simplest way to explain it is that temperature is approximately height: the higher the cloud tops, the colder. So a storm with very cold cloud tops is actually very hot - but that heat is driving the clouds to great heights.
heavy rains two days in a row e cen fl.... weak el nino? = long tracking low pressures. they are going to be looking for a place to develop. got your hurricane kit ready? good luck
West Texas is still pretty dry. I am near Del Rio and the drought is still severe. Cedar (Juniper) trees are dying and the oak trees look terrible. The crowns are dead so they will soon go. We need a hurricane to come up the Rio Bravo. What are the chances of that?
if we don't get el nino until september... the atmosphere will still behave as a neutral enso one so the idea of a below active season doesn't really make sense.. most julys are quiet and I expect activity to pick up at the end of the month. by the way, how's that el nino everyone predicted? I said it would be weak at best and so far I've been right. now if only that SAL could just disappear....

Looks like all the monsoonal moisture is taking a shortcut through Arizona
and Nevada and going up to bother Taz....
Thanks, OCF. That makes sense. The heat energy in the storm is rising and pushing the clouds higher into the atmosphere where temperatures are lower. What is the impact of this on the storm as a whole? Does that very cold air then fall rapidly into the center of the storm and cool it, thereby making it weaker? Or is it dispersed into the outflow where it falls slowly, heats up and feeds the strength of the storm?
Quoting 150. islander101010:

heavy rains two days in a row e cen fl.... weak el nino? = long tracking low pressures. they are going to be looking for a place to develop. got your hurricane kit ready? good luck
Got over an inch on the 4th too near the beaches, something like 1.25" at KCOF, so today is the third day with some heavy rain followed by a steady rain. For my part I am still expecting a moderate El Nino to give us a weak season ... waiting to see if it to kicks into gear by September.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/06/the-2014-el-n ino-is-looking-more-and-more-like-a-bust/ well well well, people finally starting to come to my side :)
Isabel '03 from ISS


Hadn't seen this shot before, thought I'd share.
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Wind shear is only 5-10 knots over the eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave. Dry air is the only inhibiting factor for the next five days, until wind shear climbs to 20 knots near 40w and 10-20n. A Dorian like system is potentially possible until dry air interferes with development.

Shear is low on the graphs at the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probabiity Guidance Product web page. Does not mean there are no areas with high shear, but generally speaking shear is not unusual. Doesn't seem like el nino yet.

Vertical instability is a different story with the tropical Atlantic being below normal. I guess that's the dry air (SAL) you mention.

Interesting how it has been so consistently more stable than climatology.
Quoting 143. Gearsts:

CFS shows a dip in SST anomaly then the El nino later this year. What we learn is that this will not be anything record breaking or even strong just a normal el nino.



I'll take a "normal" El Nino.
I live in CA.
I know last year, cyclones approaching Japan always brought up the topic of potential impacts to the damaged Fukushima plant. The planned track of Neoguri looks much worse than any of those from last year.

Any thoughts?
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:49 PM PDT on July 06, 2014
Clear
96 °F / 35.6 °C
Clear
Humidity: 18%
Dew Point: 46 °F / 8 °C
Wind: 3 mph / 4.8 km/h / 1.3 m/s from the WSW
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph / 16.1 km/h / 8.7 m/s
Pressure: 29.90 in / 1012 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 92 °F / 33 °C
Decent day here, 94.0 right now, 94.7 was the high.
Sorry, one last video for tonight showing: the sudden end of a technofestival adjacent to a suburb of my town Mainz only maybe three miles away from my place (but on the hights of nearby little mountains). The gusts of the front obviously created a dust storm due to parched fields.



Nino 1+2 region is still going strong and will likely reach 3 months above the 0.5 threshold at the end of this month.
Quoting ProjectNinja:
Just a quick question: I know that the cold cloud tops are indicative of the power of the storm, but could someone give me a quick explanation of what the mechanism is that cools them and what the relationship is between storm strength and coolness of the clouds?

Does it indicate that all the heat energy powering the storm is being released downward? Is it an indication of the efficiency of how well the storm is channeling the heat energy?

What's the difference between a very low pressure storm, say minimum pressure is 960 mb with cold cloud tops and the same storm with warmer cloud tops? Or does that just not ever happen.

Thanks.

Those are all good questions. I'm not sure I know all the answers but I'll give it a shot.

Cold cloud tops first indicate individual convection cells with high tops, usually above 40,000 feet. Instability at the surface of the ocean plus warm SST's allows a lot of lift, and with lift comes evaporation. The warmer air at the bottom of the storm cools as it's lifted, and enough convective energy allows the air parcels to be lifter higher. This is the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) that you often see as measure of a thunderstorm's energy potential, measured in joules per kilogram (j/kg).

Cold cloud tops generally mean a more intense storm. The heat at the surface is indeed being carried to the top of the storm, and all that heat energy will eventually return to the surface as drier, more stable air. Over land, that's how a thunderstorm eventually dies. IN a hurricane, this drier descending is what causes an eye to appear and be maintained. Just like thunderstorms over land, the eyewall will eventually become more stable. The hurricane will start to weaken, or it may have enough convective energy to rebuild its eyewall. In that case, eyewall replacement cycle begins.

I don't really know the answer to your question about warmer cloud tops and pressure. Generally, the lower the pressure the higher and colder the cloud tops are...but not always. There can be a a layer of drier more stable air over a storm that prevents it from breaking through the cap. In that case, you could have a fairly strong storm in terms of available energy but never have high, cold cloud tops as long as the cap remains in place.

I hope I helped a little. There are people here with a lot more knowledge than me that can probably give you clearer, more precise answers.
Quoting 156. wunderweatherman123:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/06/the-2014-el- n ino-is-looking-more-and-more-like-a-bust/ well well well, people finally starting to come to my side :)
I am waiting for the El Nino forecast at http://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/. Meanwhile, a humorous look at Anthony Watts by Russell Seitz:

Quoting 163. Envoirment:



Nino 1+2 region is still going strong and will likely reach 3 months above the 0.5 threshold at the end of this month.
not the 3.4 region though so no el nino. that's been the only consistent region where the waters haven't changed drastically
Quoting barbamz:
Sorry, one last video for tonight showing: the sudden end of a technofestival adjacent to a suburb of my town Mainz only maybe three miles away from my place (but on the hights of nearby little mountains). The gusts of the front obviously created a dust strom due to parched fields.


Looks like a typical summer afternoon in Phoenix when the monsoon blows in, but it must have been quite a shock for people in Germany. It was interesting to see how many people were concentrating on shooting a video and not taking care of themselves with all the blowing dust. I don't think anything can happen anywhere now without someone getting a video of it.
Quoting bappit:

Shear is low on the graphs at the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probabiity Guidance Product web page. Does not mean there are no areas with high shear, but generally speaking shear is not unusual. Doesn't seem like el nino yet.

Vertical instability is a different story with the tropical Atlantic being below normal. I guess that's the dry air (SAL) you mention.

Interesting how it has been so consistently more stable than climatology.


Consistently is right, it's been consistently stable for years now.
Quoting 166. wunderweatherman123:

not the 3.4 region though so no el nino. that's been the only consistent region where the waters haven't changed drastically


You can't really come to that conclusion based on a breif cooling period though. Give it another couple of weeks to see if continues to stay below the threshold. Afterall, it could rise back up over the next few days or so.
neoguri is monsterous looking...

Quoting 160. ZStoner:

I know last year, cyclones approaching Japan always brought up the topic of potential impacts to the damaged Fukushima plant. The planned track of Neoguri looks much worse than any of those from last year.

Any thoughts?
yeah but its probably too many to list
Quoting 167. sar2401:


Looks like a typical summer afternoon in Phoenix when the monsoon blows in, but it must have been quite a shock for people in Germany. It was interesting to see how many people were concentrating on shooting a video and not taking care of themselves with all the blowing dust. I don't think anything can happen anywhere now without someone getting a video of it.


Well Sar, so true. I also could upload a video showing my potted plants in my backyard, bent by those winds this evening, lol! But I was just too lazy to do the editing (all my plants survived :-), and the one of the technofestival certainly is more dramatic ...
Quoting 135. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The upward pulse of the MJO remains in the Atlantic for the time being, but should continue off to the east in subsequent days. This should leave us with the downward pulse, where upper-level divergence (air moving apart) is replaced with upper-level convergence (air colliding). When the air collides, it sinks, drying out the atmosphere and making it more difficult for tropical cyclone formation. Going solely off the MJO, it might not be until late July into early August when we get our next named storm. However, this is really only a good proxy for deep tropics storms (from tropical waves) and becomes a little less useful the further into the season we advance. Frontal storms -- like Arthur -- can and do occur in the unfavorable phase of the MJO.




The MJO didn't seem to impact the tropical Atlantic at all, nothing but drought and sinking air across the tropics. After following it a while, it seems the MJO is much more indirect and is far from being an independent variable when it comes to convective growth and rainfall in the tropics.

Everything else has been anti-conducive which in the end explains the lack of impact of the MJO. Given this, I'm skeptical it had any influence on Arthur, given the lack of activity over the tropics, and the fact that Arthur did not form from a tropical wave or tropical low, but rather a non-tropical low in the wake of an MCS that became tropical over sufficiently warm water and lower shear.
The lack of activity was primarily caused by an unexpected significant weakening of the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation between winter and spring. This resulted in continuation of the spring weather pattern over the Atlantic Ocean, with strong vertical wind shear, mid-level moisture, and atmospheric stability, which suppressed tropical cyclogenesis. thoughts on this? about the 2013 season.. also for this season I think it will be an average one. 12-6-3 are my numbers
Quoting 149. OCF:

The simplest way to explain it is that temperature is approximately height: the higher the cloud tops, the colder. So a storm with very cold cloud tops is actually very hot - but that heat is driving the clouds to great heights.
It's called the "adiabatic lapse rate" - the atmosphere cools about three degrees for every thousand feet higher in altitude. So at the cloud tops at 60,000 feet above sea level the temperature is 180 or so degrees colder than at sea level. It's not exact, but eyewall cloud tops at 60,000 feet are frequently at -80 degrees.
Nam is hinting.
177. JRRP
the first time in negative since...
Quoting 165. guygee:

I am waiting for the El Nino forecast at http://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/. Meanwhile, a humorous look at Anthony Watts by Russell Seitz:




Watts is the Glen Beck of our denier friends.
A entertainer, who has simple solutions and myths, for simple minds.
But he does keep everyone in the shallow end of the pool, so they don't drown.
179. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
CFS shows a dip in SST anomaly then the El nino later this year. What we learn is that this will not be anything record breaking or even strong just a normal el nino.

no se actualiza desde el miercoles
Quoting 177. JRRP:

the first time in negative since...

so much for a modoki...
Quoting ProjectNinja:
Just a quick question: I know that the cold cloud tops are indicative of the power of the storm, but could someone give me a quick explanation of what the mechanism is that cools them and what the relationship is between storm strength and coolness of the clouds?

Does it indicate that all the heat energy powering the storm is being released downward? Is it an indication of the efficiency of how well the storm is channeling the heat energy?

What's the difference between a very low pressure storm, say minimum pressure is 960 mb with cold cloud tops and the same storm with warmer cloud tops? Or does that just not ever happen.

Thanks.

Did anyone respond to this? Cold cloud tops are indicative of how high the convection is reaching. The more water vapor that condenses or freezes, the more of the energy is being released that powers a tropical cyclone. The more energy released, the higher (and colder) the cloud tops. Turbulence associated with convection allows momentum from stronger winds aloft to reach the surface. Warmer cloud tops and same pressure does occur. I see it with storms that move towards higher latitudes and enter the westerlies. Strong divergent flow in the westerlies can supplement the usual heat engine process of tropical cyclones.
WRF
Neoguri is still looking good, starting to turn towards the north.
Nice signature spin.
Quoting cytochromeC:
But he does keep everyone in the shallow end of the pool, so they don't drown.
People can drown in a few inches or less. Drunks, small children and badly misinformed people.


Video about Neoguri form WPac-"Levi" WestPacWx.
Anyone see the cameo when he's giving out the hurricane pamphlets? priceless!
Quoting 173. Jedkins01:



The MJO didn't seem to impact the tropical Atlantic at all, nothing but drought and sinking air across the tropics. After following it a while, it seems the MJO is much more indirect and is far from being an independent variable when it comes to convective growth and rainfall in the tropics.

Everything else has been anti-conducive which in the end explains the lack of impact of the MJO. Given this, I'm skeptical it had any influence on Arthur, given the lack of activity over the tropics, and the fact that Arthur did not form from a tropical wave or tropical low, but rather a non-tropical low in the wake of an MCS that became tropical over sufficiently warm water and lower shear.


Well here's why. The plot Cody shows is Ventrice's MJO component of the 200mb velocity potential. It may show negative values suggesting convection, but the sum-total of equatorial waves puts velocity potential well into positive anomalies. Ultimately, only the real, total velocity potential represents what's happening. The MJO is only one component that can be interfered with by other wave types.

Quoting 181. bappit:


Did anyone respond to this? Cold cloud tops are indicative of how high the convection is reaching. The more water vapor that condenses or freezes, the more of the energy is being released that powers a tropical cyclone. The more energy released, the higher (and colder) the cloud tops. Turbulence associated with convection allows momentum from stronger winds aloft to reach the surface. Warmer cloud tops and same pressure does occur. I see it with storms that move towards higher latitudes and enter the westerlies. Strong divergent flow in the westerlies can supplement the usual heat engine process of tropical cyclones.


I've gotten a couple of good responses. Thank you for adding to the explanation.

Would it be fair to say that cold cloud tops indicate a connected channel of energy between the higher-atmosphere turbulence energy and the surface-level heat energy and allow the lower to feed off the other?

Edited to remove the idea of a bidirectional feedback loop.
Quoting 183. ZacWeatherKidUK:

Neoguri is still looking good...



Beginning the turn to the north?
Quoting 34. Naga5000:



As I have said before, I live the best way I can based on rational economic decision making. This isn't about me or you, or Neapolitan, and quite frankly, I don't care about how you live while trying to make it seem like you somehow are better or more responsible than others.

This is about science denial, it is about corporations and politicians playing Americans for fools while they continue to burn fossil fuels with no regard for the consequences while all the while shouting fake science, religious objection, and pitting citizen against citizen in some false ideological warfare. This is about ignoring years of research and science, it is about the dumbing down of society that allows people to believe the Daily Mail over easily accessible research and organizations that help communicate the research to those without the needed knowledge to comprehend it.

My verbal actions are exactly what they are, total disdain for those who willfully ignore reality then choose to spread their ignorance around, acting like it's a badge of respect to be so uninformed.


I never said I was better or more responsible than others. I just do things my way with respect for others. I recently started aquaponics garden and now have several in the neighborhood wanting to help out and get involved and start gardens of their own. Isn't that what it takes?? Getting people to ask questions out of curiosity and get involved??

I have learned a ton over the years reading information here and truly some of my views have been changed on this subject. What I dislike is when it comes to name calling to help prove a point. If you want to be an ambasador of ANYTHING...do it with class. Lead by example.
Calling people names on a message board is not going to solve a thing.

I have always been one that wants to hear all angles on something and for that I am grateful. I have a friend that listens to Alex Jones and believes every word out of his mouth and he spews it like it is gospel...well to me thats just as bad as someone who listens to Rush or anyone or anything and leaves the door closed to new ideas or viewpoints.

Passion for our earth is fully commendable so for that I thank you.







TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak surface trough extending from northeastern Florida to just
offshore of the coast of the Carolinas is producing widespread
cloudiness and disorganized showers. Surface pressures are high in
the area and strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant
development of this system as it moves northeastward at 10 to 15 mph
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 189. Levi32:



Well here's why. The plot Cody shows is Ventrice's MJO component of the 200mb velocity potential. It may show negative values suggesting convection, but the sum-total of equatorial waves puts velocity potential well into positive anomalies. Ultimately, only the real, total velocity potential represents what's happening. The MJO is only one component that can be interfered with by other wave types.




I thought everybody knew that.
Quoting 189. Levi32:



Well here's why. The plot Cody shows is Ventrice's MJO component of the 200mb velocity potential. It may show negative values suggesting convection, but the sum-total of equatorial waves puts velocity potential well into positive anomalies. Ultimately, only the real, total velocity potential represents what's happening. The MJO is only one component that can be interfered with by other wave types.


apparently, reports from Peru came out saying that the development of an el nino is becoming very unlikely. In your season forecast, you predicted a below average season. the MDR is still relatively cool but if the supposed el nino doesn't materialize, how more active do you think this season can get?
196. JRRP
mm what is this ?
12z HWRF is hinting at the NHC area of potential









79 days until Fall.
Quoting ZStoner:
I know last year, cyclones approaching Japan always brought up the topic of potential impacts to the damaged Fukushima plant. The planned track of Neoguri looks much worse than any of those from last year.

Any thoughts?

By the time the typhoon even gets in the general area of Fukushima it's likely to be a cat 1 at most. The storm should also be offshore by at least 100 miles from the plant, putting it outside the hurricane force winds. The plant itself was built to withstand category 4 storms and, even with the damage, the plant should still be fine from a cat 1 storm.
MIserable, cloudy, humid, dreary, hot day in the whole state today.

Quoting Grothar:


I thought everybody knew that.

Only the smart people like you and Levi. :-)
Anyone notice how much the Gulf (especially the Florida shelf) has warmed up in the last month? Naples is near 90 (32C). If the NW Caribbean follows suit, we could get some mid-late season action.
Very soupy here again today in Gainesville, Fla. I had 2.50 yesterday, another 1.14 today. Looks like Amazonas out in my yard now.
Quoting 191. Tropicsweatherpr:



Beginning the turn to the north?

Looks like it to me.
Quoting 200. Grothar:

MIserable, cloudy, humid, dreary, hot day in the whole state today.




Its finally raining at my house, after 2 days of afternoon and evening thunder that kept me inside instead of in the pool.
Quoting 192. Abacosurf:



I never said I was better or more responsible than others. I just do things my way with respect for others. I recently started aquaponics garden and now have several in the neighborhood wanting to help out and get involved and start gardens of their own. Isn't that what it takes?? Getting people to ask questions out of curiosity and get involved??

I have learned a ton over the years reading information here and truly some of my views have been changed on this subject. What I dislike is when it comes to name calling to help prove a point. If you want to be an ambasador of ANYTHING...do it with class. Lead by example.
Calling people names on a message board is not going to solve a thing.

I have always been one that wants to hear all angles on something and for that I am grateful. I have a friend that listens to Alex Jones and believes every word out of his mouth and he spews it like it is gospel...well to me thats just as bad as someone who listens to Rush or anyone or anything and leaves the door closed to new ideas or viewpoints.

Passion for our earth is fully commendable so for that I thank you.










Yes, but too bad countries like China and India have total disregard...
This winter better provide again, nice way to cool down in July is think of this.
Quoting GatorWX:




I don't know where that low came from. It doesn't show on yet another map, this time from the HPC, and it has a low right on the AL/GA border, literally almost over my house. If it exists, it must be little more than a collection of outflow boundaries, since the only apparent effect is firing off some very scattered convection, primarily over central GA. I know I haven't gotten squat from it.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak surface trough extending from northeastern Florida to just
offshore of the coast of the Carolinas is producing widespread
cloudiness and disorganized showers. Surface pressures are high in
the area and strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant
development of this system as it moves northeastward at 10 to 15 mph
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during
the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Still percolating along the FL GA coast.... No shortage of moisture over My roof here in PBG FL... Eyes on the sky!
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
The lack of activity was primarily caused by an unexpected significant weakening of the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation between winter and spring. This resulted in continuation of the spring weather pattern over the Atlantic Ocean, with strong vertical wind shear, mid-level moisture, and atmospheric stability, which suppressed tropical cyclogenesis. thoughts on this? about the 2013 season.. also for this season I think it will be an average one. 12-6-3 are my numbers

That's the Gray and Klotzbach theory, even though Wikipedia didn't include a citation. The real answer is we don't have a clue. This has been discussed at length and there is no one magic answer that we can apply to 2014 and come up with a good forecast. What you think might happen is just that - what you think. It's as good as anything else right now. Hurricane number forecasts generally start to go above flipping a coin in late August, so check back then and see what the current guesses are.
214. csmda
Quoting 200. Grothar:

MIserable, cloudy, humid, dreary, hot day in the whole state today.




Wasn't too bad here on the panhandle. We went an hour north and spent the day here
Link

So beautiful and SO cold!
Good representation of Neapolitan on the attack!

Quoting Donna1960:
Anyone notice how much the Gulf (especially the Florida shelf) has warmed up in the last month? Naples is near 90 (32C). If the NW Caribbean follows suit, we could get some mid-late season action.
Very soupy here again today in Gainesville, Fla. I had 2.50 yesterday, another 1.14 today. Looks like Amazonas out in my yard now.

Assuming that the data is coming from the station here, it seems like that sensor is a little loopy. It's showing 93.7! Other stations the general area are reporting closer to 88. Still, even 88 is a couple of degrees above average. It seems to be a fairly localized effect, caused by your much warmer than normal temperatures in June. The rest of the Gulf and Caribbean are right at or slightly below normal. The mid Gulf is much below normal, with temperatures only in the mid-70's. The problem with getting anything out of the Gulf or Caribbean has been the widespread shear and strong easterly Trade winds, as well as the lack of vertical instability. Warm SST's won't help much in these conditions. If we can get shear down to 10 knots or less and the Trades down to normal, we might get something going, but it will for sure be mid-season, looking at things now.
Quoting csmda:


Wasn't too bad here on the panhandle. We went an hour north and spent the day here
Link

So beautiful and SO cold!

That's for sure. The water is so clear it's like glass, but I'm not going again without my wetsuit. I'm sure they could hear my teeth chattering halfway across the park. :-)
New invest 98E is up.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0022 UTC MON JUL 7 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982014) 20140707 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140707 0000 140707 1200 140708 0000 140708 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.0N 102.0W 9.9N 104.2W 10.9N 106.6W 12.2N 109.0W
BAMD 9.0N 102.0W 9.7N 104.1W 10.6N 106.0W 11.6N 108.0W
BAMM 9.0N 102.0W 9.9N 104.1W 11.1N 106.4W 12.5N 108.7W
LBAR 9.0N 102.0W 9.7N 104.0W 11.0N 106.5W 12.7N 108.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140709 0000 140710 0000 140711 0000 140712 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 111.4W 15.2N 115.7W 16.6N 119.9W 17.7N 124.2W
BAMD 12.7N 109.9W 14.4N 113.4W 15.7N 116.5W 16.9N 119.4W
BAMM 13.9N 111.0W 16.1N 115.0W 17.8N 118.7W 19.2N 122.2W
LBAR 14.5N 111.2W 18.0N 115.2W 21.0N 118.2W 24.4N 119.7W
SHIP 49KTS 52KTS 44KTS 37KTS
DSHP 49KTS 52KTS 44KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.0N LONCUR = 102.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 8.4N LONM12 = 100.5W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 99.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Evening all. Quick lookin after a lovely summer day here.

Quoting 211. GeoffreyWPB:


Doesn't look like much is surviving off the African coast.... There are 4 Twaves analysed by TAFB.... can u find any except the first one on this image?

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N21W TO 14N24W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST YESTERDAY AND
CONTINUES TO KEEP A RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
THROUGH TODAY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 06/1132 UTC
INDICATED THE WAVE EXHIBITED STRONG WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
WAVE AXIS ACROSS AN AREA S-SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AS OF
THIS EVENING...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N
BETWEEN 21W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N33W TO 17N32W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER SIGNAL IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9
IMAGERY SURROUNDING THE WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AN
OVERALL LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS THE WAVE HAS LIKELY DISPERSED A PORTION OF ITS
ENERGY INTO A MID-LATITUDE AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH WHICH LIES TO
THE WEST N OF 12N BETWEEN 35W-42W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 21N75W MOVING W AT 25 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING WITH THE MOST IDENTIFIABLE FEATURE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS SW OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE VICINITY OF
19N76W. OTHERWISE...THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD GLOBAL MODEL
700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 73W-82W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N95W TO 23N90W MOVING W AT 25 KT.
THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THAT REMAINS FAIRLY DIFFLUENT ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. ASSOCIATED WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA S OF 19N BETWEEN 90W-95W.
I had no power for like 3 hours from a thunderstorm today! in WPB but just got it back on! :)
Quoting 222. SFLWeatherman:

I had no power for like 3 hours from a thunderstorm today! in WPB but just got it back on! :)
I can genuinely commiserate...
Quoting 187. opal92nwf:

Anyone see the cameo when he's giving out the hurricane pamphlets? priceless!


I'll help you. go to 6:46
Godzilla

it will be an irony if this season ends average or above average after everyone including me thought this was going to be a quiet season. I am still expecting one but anything can happen, every year is different. Last year we thought it was going to be above average and it end well below average.
Quoting 210. Neapolitan:


No, it's not. Are you somehow under the mistaken impression that's what it's designed to do?

Those people described by Naga--the liars, the deniers, the paid and unpaid shills, the intentionally ignorant, the ideologically-blinded, the anti-science, anti-logic, anti-common sense masses--are engaged in a deadly game. Now, I'm enough of a libertarian to believe that if an adult wants to do himself in out of his own stupidity, no one should to stop him. But the game that's being played isn't affecting just those Fox fools and WUWT wannabes and Monckton morons; it's affecting me, too, and my children, and their children, and so on. I don't know about you, but when a person is trying his best to harm me or my family, I don't spend much time carefully choosing pleasant-sounding PC words that'll soothe him and cause him no offense or insult. No, I pretty much let him have it, and I will fight to the death if I have to for me and mine. So if some clown chooses to block my ability to protect and provide, I'm of the opinion that having his fee-fees hurt by a few harsh words in a public internet forum will be the very least of his worries.

Know what I mean?

If you think that is the the way you will save your family than more power to you!
IMO it does nothing but negate your message.
It's like watching politicians when the mud starts to sling. Boring and pointless
Know what I mean?
So we live in the same town...lets start a club that voices our opinion on a local level!!
Have to start somewhere...Are you with me?
http://www.salon.com/2014/07/06/bbc_staff_ordered _to_stop_giving_equal_air_time_to_climate_deniers/

Good news for viewers of BBC News: you will no longer be subjected to the unhinged ravings of climate deniers and other members of the anti-science fringe. In a report published Thursday by the BBC Trust, the network's journalists were criticized for devoting too much air time (as in, any air time) to unqualified people with "marginal views" about non-contentious issues in a misguided attempt to provide editorial balance.

"The Trust wishes to emphasize the importance of attempting to establish where the weight of scientific agreement may be found and make that clear to audiences," the report reads. "Science coverage does not simply lie in reflecting a wide range of views but depends on the varying degree of prominence such views should be given." So far, according to the Telegraph, about 200 staff members have attending seminars and workshops aimed at improving their coverage.


Quoting opal92nwf:

I'll help you. go to 6:46

I saw him. The people in the makeup department did a heck of a job on all the lines and wrinkles. Pretty amazing. I wonder if I can hire them to work on my face? :-)
When does the Southern Jet-stream get going since we are in are headed to a moderate El-Nino?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NEOGURI (T1408)
9:00 AM JST July 7 2014
=============================

SUBJECT: NEOGURI In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Neoguri (930 hPa) located at 20.4N 128.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
110 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
375 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
240 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 24.4N 125.9E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) southeast of Miyakojima
48 HRS: 29.1N 126.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
72 HRS: 32.1N 129.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) west of Kyushu
Neoguri begins to become boring...The typhoon is failing to keep heavy clouds off the eye for an extended period ...I think now it's your peak strength. He just has tomorrow to do this, right?
Neoguri up to 135kts.

08W NEOGURI 140707 0000 20.4N 128.2E WPAC 135 922
Quoting allancalderini:
it will be an irony if this season ends average or above average after everyone including me thought this was going to be a quiet season. I am still expecting one but anything can happen, every year is different. Last year we thought it was going to be above average and it end well below average.

That's the trouble with long-term forecasts. Much of it is based on things that haven't happened yet. We've seen from past experience that pre-season hurricane forecasts are little better than chance. We don't know what tropical conditions will be in September five months in advance. There are forecasters that think they know, and the media gives them attention. If pre-season hurricane forecasters had as much success with a three day forecast as they do with a pre-season forecast they'd probably be looking for other work. I really pay no attention to what numbers are being forecast. By the end of August, we may actually begin to have a better handle on the rest of the season, but not before.
Quoting 226. allancalderini:

it will be an irony if this season ends average or above average after everyone including me thought this was going to be a quiet season. I am still expecting one but anything can happen, every year is different. Last year we thought it was going to be above average and it end well below average.

25 more days and I think this season will show its true colors.
Quoting pablosyn:
Neoguri begins to become boring...The typhoon is failing to keep heavy clouds off the eye for an extended period ...I think now it's your peak strength. He just has tomorrow to do this, right?

No, the storm has as much as 72 hours, depending on forward speed and land interaction. I tend to agree that Neoguri may be near peak intensity now. It is still drawing a lot of dry air into the circulation. The eye and eyewall are very well constructed but the rest of the storm isn't maintaining deep convection in all quadrants, particularly the north. In some ways, Neoguri reminds me a larger and much more intense Arthur as it struggles with dry air. It's still a whopping storm, but I think dry air may have limited Neoguri to a typhoon just below something really catastrophic.
Neoguri's size has become too large for its own good if we're speaking towards its strength. The large circulation is allowing dry air to be pulled in from a long way out, preventing the storm from maintaining extremely cold cloudtops despite being over 32C waters in a low shear environment.

It's dry here!! I want some rain! Saturday's t-wave was ridiculous :-(

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I had no power for like 3 hours from a thunderstorm today! in WPB but just got it back on! :)

That's just long enough for all the cold air circulation in your house to leave and start a serious sweating episode. It's bad losing power anytime but in Florida and the Deep South, it's really awful. I have great respect for all the people who managed to make it here in the days before air conditioning.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Neoguri's size has become too large for its own good if we're speaking towards its strength. The large circulation is allowing dry air to be pulled in from a long way out, preventing the storm from maintaining extremely cold cloudtops despite being over 32C waters in a low shear environment.


I was just saying that. Now it looks like the eyewall on the north side is also becoming more ragged. Certainly not a historic typhoon at this point.
I had no AC for like 14 years down here! and it was not that bad
Quoting 239. sar2401:


That's just long enough for all the cold air circulation in your house to leave and start a serious sweating episode. It's bad losing power anytime but in Florida and the Deep South, it's really awful. I have great respect for all the people who managed to make it here in the days before air conditioning.
Quoting 235. opal92nwf:


25 more days and I think this season will show its true colors.

A lot depends on what conditions are like going into ASO. So far we haven't seen a genuine el nino form, which means it will likely be later in the season when we see its full impact. Basically, then, whatever our local conditions are [i.e. SAL, trades, position / strength of AB high] will determine how busy and how destructive the season will be. Something I particularly remember about 2006 was that it was going like gangbusters until that el nino kicked in. There were 5 hurricanes, including 2 majors, and 2 TS between Aug 1 and Sep 30. The season ended with 5 'canes in a row. But October and November were completely shut down. Without the el nino it would have ended up in all likelihood another busy season like '04. So I wouldn't rule out activity in the ATL during ASO. Frankly, I'd take another 2006-like season - we had lots of fun storms to watch, and most of them didn't hurt anybody.

Quoting 240. sar2401:


I was just saying that. Now it looks like the eyewall on the north side is also becoming more ragged. Certainly not a historic typhoon at this point.

It makes me wonder how Typhoon Tip got so powerful given how massive it was.
Quoting 218. sar2401:


That's for sure. The water is so clear it's like glass, but I'm not going again without my wetsuit. I'm sure they could hear my teeth chattering halfway across the park. :-)


It's all what you're used to. At the NJ shore 70 is considered balmy. Myself, I find these days that the water temperature has to at least match my age, currently trending at 64.6
Quoting 245. rod2635:



It's all what you're used to. At the NJ shore 70 is considered balmy. Myself, I find these days that the water temperature has to at least match my age, currently trending at 64.6


68°, that is really nice if you have been in the water here, (SoCal), downright warm.....
Good Evening. Just got back from July 4th vacation with the Family in Atlanta, using an alternate computer, and still having problems with my computer (serious network issues that cannot be isolated) so I may not be able to blog as frequently for the foreseeable future. In any event, I just scanned the Blogs on Arthur and happy to see that there was no loss of life and minimal damages. However, still trying to wrap my head around the comment below from Dr. Master's first post-Arthur blog in Friday. I seriously hope that people living on barrier islands don't take these type of chances in the future with a a Cat 2 or above headed in your direction. See Everyone some time down the line and hope everyone had a safe Holiday weekend.

The vast majority of the 60,000 permanent residents who live on the Outer Banks did not evacuate. Highway 12 connecting the Outer Banks to the mainland was flooded and covered with sand, but is scheduled to re-open on Saturday.
5 Things You Never Knew About Chasing Tornadoes by storm chaser Tim Baker courtesy of cracked.com. I don't think the editors at Cracked did much damage to the article. It gives a pretty sober look at the situation.
Quoting 244. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It makes me wonder how Typhoon Tip got so powerful given how massive it was.
Better atmospheric conditions.
The 0300z warning has Neoguri moving close to the west of Okinawa at 145kts.

253. silas

Quoting sar2401:

No, the storm has as much as 72 hours, depending on forward speed and land interaction. I tend to agree that Neoguri may be near peak intensity now. It is still drawing a lot of dry air into the circulation. The eye and eyewall are very well constructed but the rest of the storm isn't maintaining deep convection in all quadrants, particularly the north. In some ways, Neoguri reminds me a larger and much more intense Arthur as it struggles with dry air. It's still a whopping storm, but I think dry air may have limited Neoguri to a typhoon just below something really catastrophic.
It's way too soon to say that in my opinion. Even if it never gets stronger than it is now and hits Japan as a Cat 2 or 3, it would probably be a catastrophe. Its huge wind field would push a gigantic storm surge to the coast and spread wind damage and flooding rain to a very large area. Its strength obviously is a big indicator of how much damage this thing will cause, but I think its size is what we should be most concerned about.
Quoting 243. BahaHurican:

A lot depends on what conditions are like going into ASO. So far we haven't seen a genuine el nino form, which means it will likely be later in the season when we see its full impact. Basically, then, whatever our local conditions are [i.e. SAL, trades, position / strength of AB high] will determine how busy and how destructive the season will be. Something I particularly remember about 2006 was that it was going like gangbusters until that el nino kicked in. There were 5 hurricanes, including 2 majors, and 2 TS between Aug 1 and Sep 30. The season ended with 5 'canes in a row. But October and November were completely shut down. Without the el nino it would have ended up in all likelihood another busy season like '04. So I wouldn't rule out activity in the ATL during ASO. Frankly, I'd take another 2006-like season - we had lots of fun storms to watch, and most of them didn't hurt anybody.



Yes good point. What I was thinking is that sometime in the month of August this season will have to switch itself on to some degree. Part of the reason I say this is that even quiet seasons like 1983, 1992, 1965 put out an impressive (more than Arthur) hurricane during that month.

It really won't be that long before we see if 2014 will continue what it started with Arthur (as far as landfall impacts).
Quoting ProjectNinja:


I've gotten a couple of good responses. Thank you for adding to the explanation.

Would it be fair to say that cold cloud tops indicate a connected channel of energy between the higher-atmosphere turbulence energy and the surface-level heat energy and allow the lower to feed off the other?

Edited to remove the idea of a bidirectional feedback loop.

I don't know what a channel of energy would be. Turbulence happens throughout the air column where convection takes place. The whole system feeds off the release of latent heat as water condenses. A lot of air is drawn into the storm and rises. As air comes out the top of the storm it has to have some place to go. It goes in whatever direction it can. The more easily that air can exit the storm, the easier it is for convection to continue.
Quoting 251. GeoffreyWPB:


258. csmda
Quoting 218. sar2401:


That's for sure. The water is so clear it's like glass, but I'm not going again without my wetsuit. I'm sure they could hear my teeth chattering halfway across the park. :-)


Yeah, it was a little much. We're gonna go again in August when it's warmer. I'm a little spoiled with our warm water beaches. Same with our pool. I won't swim until June.
Quoting 254. BahaHurican:

You know, there's a place in the Bible where it talks about people who will be turned away at the end by Jesus. These people claim that they have been doing all kinds of things in Jesus' name. Jesus says, "Depart.... I never knew you". [Matthew 7:21-23]

Let's just say, it's a lot easier to talk about what people should do and a lot harder to DO what Jesus would do.

All we can do is let Him work on us because according to the Bible, our own attempts at being righteous are like "filthy rags." Isaiah 64:6
Quoting silas:

It's way too soon to say that in my opinion. Even if it never gets stronger than it is now and hits Japan as a Cat 2 or 3, it would probably be a catastrophe. Its huge wind field would push a gigantic storm surge to the coast and spread wind damage and flooding rain to a very large area. Its strength obviously is a big indicator of how much damage this thing will cause, but I think its size is what we should be most concerned about.

You could certainly be right. The biggest variable with any tropical storm hitting Japan is rainfall, since inland flooding and landslides have been the big killers, not the effects of they typhoon directly. Japan has done a good job of hardening coastal structures and infrastructure to resist typhoons, but southern Japan very prone to landslides. and all of Japan is prone to flooding. How the storm behaves in Okinawa will give us some data to judge the likely effects for the rest of Japan.
I had to double-check to see if I was on the right blog here…..
Quoting rod2635:


It's all what you're used to. At the NJ shore 70 is considered balmy. Myself, I find these days that the water temperature has to at least match my age, currently trending at 64.6

It does indeed. I grew up in Cleveland and did a lot of my diving in California, where 70 degree water north of San Diego is almost unheard of. When I was a kid, it seemed like I could swim in kind of cold water and not mind it that much. As I've gotten older, I find I really can't tolerate cold water. It's not just being cold, there are actual physical effects, like rapid heartbeat and a decrease in blood pressure, neither of which happened when I was young. Just one more side effect of becoming elderly. :-)
Quoting pottery:
I had to double-check to see if I was on the right blog here…..

Kneel for your blessing...
Quoting 238. CaribBoy:

It's dry here!! I want some rain! Saturday's t-wave was ridiculous :-(


I got some rain but only lasted 2 min lol and the eastern and south side of the island got almost nothing.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It makes me wonder how Typhoon Tip got so powerful given how massive it was.

One of those perfect storm situations. When we see a monster like that we sometimes get seduced by the idea the next storm could be just like it, or the next, and so on. In reality, it takes exactly the right conditions, some of which we don't even know or understand now. Storms like Tip, Andrew, and Katrina are remembered not only for the death and destruction they caused but also for the rarity of their occurrence.
Think it's time for Coast To Coast AM. Or maybe some Phil Hendrie.
Quoting sar2401:

Kneel for your blessing...

Not until you put your sword down……

I'm out. Stay safe all.
Monday cometh.
Quoting pottery:

Not until you put your sword down……

I'm out. Stay safe all.
Monday cometh.

GN, Pott. I'll stand guard. :-)
pottery....

Latest I could find from the JTWC. Big storm...



Epic stuff there Geoff.

Keep alert, Sar, they are out there beyond the wire somewhere.
It's good to know I can rest easy tonight.
I never sleep well when my truncheon is under my pillow.
Thanks, man.
275. SLU
Amidst all the jesus talk, the EATL wave actually had some good circulation and TS force winds 12 hrs ago when it possessed all of its deep convection. Too bad .. or good .. today isn't September 6th.



That's a busy Cyclone traffic area where Arthur made landfall in NC.



The WPAC is currently behind the climatological mean.


Link
Just checking in from East Coast Central Florida to let you know we have had a ton of rain the last two days. There was a lot of local flooding and some houses had water in them. It was a messy two days!!
278. jpsb
Quoting 210. Neapolitan:


the liars, the deniers, the paid and unpaid shills, the intentionally ignorant, the ideologically-blinded, the anti-science, anti-logic, anti-common sense masses--are engaged in a deadly game.

Know what I mean?


Really? Wow!
279. silas

Quoting sar2401:

You could certainly be right. The biggest variable with any tropical storm hitting Japan is rainfall, since inland flooding and landslides have been the big killers, not the effects of they typhoon directly. Japan has done a good job of hardening coastal structures and infrastructure to resist typhoons, but southern Japan very prone to landslides. and all of Japan is prone to flooding. How the storm behaves in Okinawa will give us some data to judge the likely effects for the rest of Japan.
I just hope people are preparing for the monster this is going to be....

INVEST 98e
Last Updated ‎7‎/‎6‎/‎2014, ‎8‎:‎00‎:‎00‎ ‎PM (Eastern Daylight Time)
Location 9.0 102.0W Movement WNW at 10 mph
Wind 30 MPH
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Neoguri's size has become too large for its own good if we're speaking towards its strength. The large circulation is allowing dry air to be pulled in from a long way out, preventing the storm from maintaining extremely cold cloudtops despite being over 32C waters in a low shear environment.



Neoguri is only classified as an Large sized Typhoon.

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT.

Location: Over the central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.0N 128.5E)
About: 725 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan...or 680 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 240 kph near the center...Gustiness: 295 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and west of the eye): 200 to 510 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Size (in diameter): 1,140 km (Large)(700miles)
Past Movement: Northwest @ 22 kph
Forecast Movement: North-Northwest at 22 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea-Okinawa-Ryukyus Area

A Very large Typhoon example would be Typhoon Nanmadol of 2004.

Quoting 276. AussieStorm:

The WPAC is currently behind the climatological mean.





Models show another TC developing in about a 5-7 days time.
Quoting 244. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It makes me wonder how Typhoon Tip got so powerful given how massive it was.
Maybe it wasn't as strong as said. I believe other typhoons might had been stronger like Angela or cyclone Monica.
Quoting silas:

I just hope people are preparing for the monster this is going to be....



I gave my friend in Naha, Okinawa a heads up a few days ago. I just told her to prepare just in case. I am glad I did now.

286. flsky
Great cool day in ECFL. Good rains and lots of thunder.
Quoting 214. csmda:



Wasn't too bad here on the panhandle. We went an hour north and spent the day here
Link

So beautiful and SO cold!
Quoting Envoirment:


Models show another TC developing in about a 5-7 days time.


You mean this one?



That would only be a TD in the WPAC.


We are now in TCCOR 2.

TCCOR 2: Destructive sustained winds of 50 knots or greater anticipated within 24 hours. Secure all outdoor property such as picnic tables, barbecue grills, etc.
Quoting 255. opal92nwf:


Yes good point. What I was thinking is that sometime in the month of August this season will have to switch itself on to some degree. Part of the reason I say this is that even quiet seasons like 1983, 1992, 1965 put out an impressive (more than Arthur) hurricane during that month.

It really won't be that long before we see if 2014 will continue what it started with Arthur (as far as landfall impacts).
Typical season is quiet in our neck of the woods from now until somewhere between Aug 1 and 10.... then things start to break loose... forget which season it was that Ike came in here every July a.m. for like three weeks and announced "GFS says Nuttin' ".... think we ended up with an above average season... lol... and was it 2008 where we had 8 storms in September? Anyway, while I am not saying we will have an over-active season, still I think we will get our share of storms in August and September. I also gotta say, first storm that gets its act together out in the MDR is going to have ALL the fuel to itself....
That wave needs to be out next invest and TC. Thats my opinion.
Quoting Grothar:


Doom, Gro!?!?!

Quoting Neapolitan:

Those people described by Naga--the liars, the deniers, the paid and unpaid shills, the intentionally ignorant, the ideologically-blinded, the anti-science, anti-logic, anti-common sense masses--are engaged in a deadly game....  Know what I mean?
Thanks for articulating so very intelligently what is so very wrong with the denier racketeers, their demented memes and their impact on humanity's common future.

The deniers are engaged in shameful behaviors. They know it, we know it, but the game goes on because at least in America, you find scoundrels running much of the machinery of the nation.

I take heart that no matter how insincere, self-serving and unethical they happen to be, men like Henry Paulson and Michael Bloomberg are providing a counter-story to the climate denial crowd at Fox News and the Heartland Institute.

In a similar vein, I could hope that Obama would provide more than lip service and grandiloquent rhetoric on climate crisis. But that might just be hoping for a miracle of leadership when all we got is a saleman's poll-tested soft sell and a man standing behind a tele-prompter.


Quoting 273. sar2401:

Latest I could find from the JTWC. Big storm...




If the storm doesn't have one of those "easterly jogs" just as it is passing Okinawa, they might make out ok. Sure wouldn't want to get into the eastern eyewall of that thing...
Quoting RevInFL:
Just checking in from East Coast Central Florida to let you know we have had a ton of rain the last two days. There was a lot of local flooding and some houses had water in them. It was a messy two days!!

We heard from Scott you guys really got some rains down there. Seems like Florida is the birthplace of all thunderstorms lately. You must be stealing them from Alabama, since I haven't seen one in 10 days. Glad to hear you came through it OK.
Quoting 294. BahaHurican:

If the storm doesn't have one of those "easterly jogs" just as it is passing Okinawa, they might make out ok. Sure wouldn't want to get into the eastern eyewall of that thing...



Just spoke with my brother in Guam, and it had been blowing at 70+ at his house a while back.
Quoting 284. allancalderini:

Maybe it wasn't as strong as said. I believe other typhoons might had been stronger like Angela or cyclone Monica.
Was it at its strongest / deepest when it was at its largest, diameter-wise?

Quoting 287. AussieStorm:



You mean this one?



That would only be a TD in the WPAC.


The winds that the CMC/GFS are showing are TS strength. The CMC has a deeper pressure than the GFS though (GFS will likely deepen it in future runs).
300. JLPR2
Fading away, slowly but surely.

Quoting 287. AussieStorm:



You mean this one?



That would only be a TD in the WPAC.

It's actually a strong tropical storm/minimal typhoon--use the GFS full-resolution winds and pressure.

Link
Quoting 284. allancalderini:

Maybe it wasn't as strong as said. I believe other typhoons might had been stronger like Angela or cyclone Monica.


I was in Guam after Pamela, and had no electricity for 4 months.
Warm beer anyone?
Quoting 298. BahaHurican:

Was it at its strongest / deepest when it was at its largest, diameter-wise?




I believe so based on the picture of peak intensity:



Also to note

"U.S. Air Force aircraft flew 60 weather reconnaissance missions into the typhoon, making Tip one of the most closely observed tropical cyclones."

Link
305. FOREX
Quoting 291. HurricaneAndre:

That wave needs to be out next invest and TC. Thats my opinion.


Which wave?
Quoting Chicklit:
Godzilla
While Super Typhoon Neoguri is a wonderment, it's got some competition for the claim to the most intense Pacific Typhoon in the records.

Currently, the estimate is that Neoguri is a 930 Mb super typhoon.

Comparables:

Tip  1979    260 km/h   (160 mph)       870 hPa (25.69 inHg)

Megi   2010   230 km/h   (145 mph)    885 hPa (26.13 inHg)


Haiyan    2013   230 km/h (145 mph)   895 hPa (26.43 inHg)

Source Link



Quoting FOREX:


Which wave?
By Africa.
Neoguri~ Click pic for loop.
311. vis0
Credit:: NOAA/NASA presented via CANADA.gov
Imagery area:: Americas disk(@edge are Mid Pacific to the West, Africa to the East)
Imagery Type:: Simple IR (This cloured IR is not a NOAA/NASA product, used my filters to separate shades of whites via linear & cube formulations 1990s, no where as good as the pros but i couldn't find this type of shading via hues as to an Earth Disk view)
Imagery period:: 201407-04,1445 -- 07;0245 (1445 UTC on July 4th 2014 thru 0245UTC on July 7th 2014)



For the latest image of this animation in FULL size (1024x1024) BUT compressed
w/good detail click here---> [http://i.imgbox.com/IeZr2v2T.jpg]
Quoting 309. bsjmor:




i dont see this hitting 145 knots-166 mph
structure not great

Quoting AussieStorm:


Neoguri is only classified as an Large sized Typhoon.


Size (in diameter): 1,140 km (Large)(700miles)

Compare to Typhoon Tip with size at peak (in diameter) 2,220 km. (1,350 miles)

Property damage could be far more severe however, based on projected storm track.
Quoting 210. Neapolitan:

No, it's not. Are you somehow under the mistaken impression that's what it's designed to do?

Those people described by Naga--the liars, the deniers, the paid and unpaid shills, the intentionally ignorant, the ideologically-blinded, the anti-science, anti-logic, anti-common sense masses--are engaged in a deadly game. Now, I'm enough of a libertarian to believe that if an adult wants to do himself in out of his own stupidity, no one should to stop him. But the game that's being played isn't affecting just those Fox fools and WUWT wannabes and Monckton morons; it's affecting me, too, and my children, and their children, and so on. I don't know about you, but when a person is trying his best to harm me or my family, I don't spend much time carefully choosing pleasant-sounding PC words that'll soothe him and cause him no offense or insult. No, I pretty much let him have it, and I will fight to the death if I have to for me and mine. So if some clown chooses to block my ability to protect and provide, I'm of the opinion that having his fee-fees hurt by a few harsh words in a public internet forum will be the very least of his worries.

Know what I mean?
Whoa. First of all, you took a reasonable and coherent comment addressed to NAGA, not to you, from a blogger talking about what s/he does to help the environment, edited the blogger's words down to a single sentence, then used this single sentence to springboard into this tirade.

Your comment here concerns me because it sounds threatening. I know you believe in boundaries. Maybe you can channel your protective energies into building a sustainable situation for yourself and your heirs.

{Posted in part to assure pottery he is indeed on the right blog. ;)}

Quoting allancalderini:
Maybe it wasn't as strong as said. I believe other typhoons might had been stronger like Angela or cyclone Monica.
Hi allen,

You can trust the facts on Typhoon Tip. It was probably the most studied WPAC typhoon of all time. The USAF/NOAA sent 40 flights through Tip. Most ever. Since the 1980s we've relied on extrapolating satellite data to understand these cyclones. We have worse data today than we did in 1979. That's progress for ya. :)
Quoting rayduray2013:

Thanks for articulating so very intelligently what is so very wrong with the denier racketeers, their demented memes and their impact on humanity's common future.

The deniers are engaged in shameful behaviors. They know it, we know it, but the game goes on because at least in America, you find scoundrels running much of the machinery of the nation.

I take heart that no matter how insincere, self-serving and unethical they happen to be, men like Henry Paulson and Michael Bloomberg are providing a counter-story to the climate denial crowd at Fox News and the Heartland Institute.

In a similar vein, I could hope that Obama would provide more than lip service and grandiloquent rhetoric on climate crisis. But that might just be hoping for a miracle of leadership when all we got is a saleman's poll-tested soft sell and a man standing behind a tele-prompter.


And, as is par for the course, the American public by and large is going about life as well as it can without paying much attention.

The fight, seems to me, is ideological.
Quoting 315. rayduray2013:


Hi allen,

You can trust the facts on Typhoon Tip. It was probably the most studied WPAC typhoon of all time. The USAF/NOAA sent 40 flights through Tip. Most ever. Since the 1980s we've relied on extrapolating satellite data to understand these cyclones. We have worse data today than we did in 1979. That's progress for ya. :)

Thanks I didn't know that. I thought it was estimated.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
And, as is par for the course, the American public, by and large is going about life as well as it can without paying much attention.

The fight, seems to me, is ideological.
I believe we're in a post-ideological age. We've matured into the age of idiocracy. :)


INVEST 98e TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 6 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad low pressure system located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A small low pressure area located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any
development this disturbance should be slow to occur during the next
few days while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Quoting JLPR2:
Fading away, slowly but surely.



Another strong wave will come off Africa in a few days. Will be interesting when it does.





321. JLPR2
Quoting 320. AussieStorm:



Another strong wave will come off Africa in a few days. Will be interesting when it does.




And at a higher latitude too, though it remains to be seen if it will be as lucky as the one before it or if SAL will be its constant companion.

Youtube Caption, published July 7, 2014
6 July 2014 Approx. 8:20PM. This tornado formed northeast of Elschbach, by Dietschweiler village, perhaps 6 miles from Ramstein AFB. I'm not sure at this time how far it ultimately went. The tornado on the ground is at the end of the video. I would have captured more, but I have a co-worker that lives out in that direction, and I had to put down the camera in order to warn him.
After the fact, I drove out to Dietschweiler, and saw some one down tree, lots of vegetation debris, but no serious damage, fortunately.
Update: Damage to houses in Schonenberg reported. This tornado formed after the system moved past Schonenberg, so possibly more tornadoes were formed before this one.



Strongest winds yesterday evening in my part of the country.

Storms hit south-west Germany
The Local, published: 07 Jul 2014 08:45 GMT 02:00

See posts #148 and #162 (7 people injured at the end of this technofestival nearby).

Storm Forecast for today
Valid: Mon 07 Jul 2014 06:00 to Tue 08 Jul 2014 06:00 UTC, Issued: Sun 06 Jul 2014 22:06, Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER
A level 2 was issued for parts of central and northeastern Germany mainly for extreme rainfall, and to a lesser extent for large hail and severe winds.
A level 2 was issued for a part of S Germany and and the adjacent plains for large hail and to a lesser extent for severe winds and extreme rainfall.
A level 2 was issued for Corsica, parts of northern Italy, western Slovenia and western Croatia mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent for severe wind gusts and extreme rainfall. ...


Have a nice Monday everybody!
----------------------------

And this is Neoguri:



Quoting 314. Barefootontherocks:

Whoa. First of all, you took a reasonable and coherent comment addressed to NAGA, not to you...


You *do* understand that this is a public forum, right? Private conversations should be restricted to other forms of communication; everything posted here is fair game.

Quoting 314. Barefootontherocks:

...edited the blogger's words down to a single sentence...


Yes. Complete with the number of the comment to which I was replying, lest anyone wonder whether the lack of context changed the meaning of the quoted sentence. (Note: it didn't.)

Quoting 314. Barefootontherocks:

Your comment here concerns me because it sounds threatening.


Great! It was intended to. I'm happy to know my message was received. Now mind you, it obviously wasn't a threat directed at anyone here, but rather a threat against those who are threatening me and my family. I trust thinking people are able to see that difference.

Quoting 314. Barefootontherocks:

Maybe you can channel your protective energies into building a sustainable situation for yourself and your heirs.


Thanks. I am. And part of creating that sustainable situation is calling out those who are blindly and not so blindly destroying our environment, thereby making the creation of such a situation an increasingly difficult task.
Okinawa LIVE-Webcam`s: Link
VERY DRY AIR IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY FUELS
WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. ANY EXISTING
FIRES TODAY WILL SPREAD VERY RAPIDLY AND BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
CONTAIN. VERY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAX
RH OF 70 PERCENT OR LESS.
This is bringing back memories of Yolanda (Haiyan) that hit our island (Leyte) last November.
Although Neoguri was never going to turn towards The Philippines, and is not going to reach the the heights of Yolanda, it is nonetheless bringing back memories of the night of the 7th Nov. on Dr. Masters blog.

The aftermath of Yolanda has changed my life completely. Having traveled along it's path several times, I have much more respect for nature. I have seen so much death and destruction throughout the North part of Leyte. I have tried my best to help the 'Living' with our re-housing projects, but in truth the effects of that night will take many years to heal for the majority of people.

It is exactly 8 months ago tonight. RIP to the victims of that morning and stay safe to those in south Japan in the coming days.

Pascal
I see the sky is falling, again this morning...
not much in the atlantic today
329. VR46L
Good Morning folks !!

This is a few hours old ... but this Viirs image is just stunning

Just do not see where Doc Masters mentioed anything in this post about climate change. Now it seems climate change freaks are arguing with each other.. stick with the weather we barely have a couple hundred years of weather records the climate changes in cycles for thousands and thousands of years and you will not live long enough to prove any of it... There is plenty of current weather to talk about.. I am. Denier I beleive in earth cycles not earth changes... weather over Fl today should be soupy again today.
NEA quote...
"Thanks. I am. And part of creating that sustainable situation is calling out those who are blindly and not so blindly destroying our environment, thereby making the creation of such a situation an increasingly difficult task."


If you think "calling out" or arguing with 10 people a week who don't have your beliefs on a message board is going to save your family than good luck my friend.

I'd rather go outside and pee into the wind.





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure, located just offshore of the coast of
the Carolinas, is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Surface pressures remain high across the area and
strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant development
of this system as it moves northeastward at about 15 mph over the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Pasch
Quoting 330. forecaster1:

Just do not see where Doc Masters mentioed anything in this post about climate change. Now it seems climate change freaks are arguing with each other.. stick with the weather we barely have a couple hundred years of weather records ...
NOAA Introduction to Paleoclimatology.
334. SLU
Quoting 332. GeoffreyWPB:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure, located just offshore of the coast of
the Carolinas, is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Surface pressures remain high across the area and
strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant development
of this system as it moves northeastward at about 15 mph over the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Pasch


No Arthur repeat here.
Looks like theres alot of money to make off of freaking people out....as capitalist I should get on board.
Quoting 333. guygee:

NOAA Introduction to Paleoclimatology.
Climate Change Freaks?

I do digress on dat.

Since when is science, freakish?
Quoting 335. forecaster1:

Looks like theres alot of money to make off of freaking people out....as capitalist I should get on board.
You are not a very astute capitalist if you think you would not profit much more by lobbying for big coal or big oil. Just sayin'
800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations

Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.



Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. The 2008 observed value is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and projections are based upon future emission scenarios. More information on the data can be found in the Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. report.
I am convinced... What can I sell you to make you safe... darn deniers lets stop them..,.
Quoting 337. guygee:

You are not a very astute capitalist if you think you would not profit much more by lobbying for big coal or big oil. Just sayin'
I said freaking people out not climate freaks .
Quoting 336. Patrap:

Climate Change Freaks?

I do digress on dat.

Since when is science, freakish?

Science brings the bad news, man has corrupted his Biosphere.

And continues to do so in Gigatonnage.
An area of disturbed weather associated with the northern latitude of a tropical wave with its axis currently stretching from the central Caribbean Sea to the central Bahamas and points north and east from that location is showing signs of potential organization. Convection is increasing in this region as it enters a more favorable wind shear environment and warmer waters, the warmest of the Atlantic at this time. Again future of this system resides on potential wind shear values as well as track of potential surface low development. Time will tell if this system bears watching in the future, but right now I am keeping a very close eye on this development.
A lot of activity on the Westcoast of Fl. this morning.


Neoguri

Neoguri

Viz to Night IR


Quoting 340. forecaster1:

I said freaking people out not climate freaks .


Quoting 330. forecaster1:

Just do not see where Doc Masters mentioed anything in this post about climate change. Now it seems climate change freaks arguing with each other.. stick with the weather we barely have a couple hundred years of weather records the climate changes in cycles for thousands and thousands of years and you will not live long enough to prove any of it... There is plenty of current weather to talk about.. I am. Denier I beleive in earth cycles not earth changes... weather over Fl today should be soupy again today.
So what happened the last five or so ice ages to cause global calamity? Did humans cause those changes?
Quoting 341. Patrap:

Science brings the bad news, man has corrupted his Biosphere.

And continues to do so in Gigatonnage.
348. silas
Wow conversation is really sidetracked today, as usual when there's nothing in the Atlantic to talk about.

Meanwhile, Neoguri is a very puzzling storm. The structure is beautiful, but it can't seem to maintain deep convection. Remind you of anyone?

Upwards of 6" to 8" of rain fell yesterday in eastern Orange and northern Brevard Counties. I picked up 6.57" on Saturday and .06" on Sunday. This was one of the wettest 4th of July holiday's I can remember.

Let's just say NASCAR fans were not happy this weekend in Daytona.


Is there accessible radar sites that can be viewed to compare these sat loops to?
Quoting 348. silas:

Wow conversation is really sidetracked today, as usual when there's nothing in the Atlantic to talk about.

Meanwhile, Neoguri is a very puzzling storm. The structure is beautiful, but it can't seem to maintain deep convection. Remind you of anyone?


Quoting 339. forecaster1:

I am convinced... What can I sell you to make you safe... darn deniers lets stop them..,.
Don't try to sell me anything, just try to make a more sustainable society for your children, grandchildren, neighbors and community.

Please excuse me now I am getting late for work.
K, I said freak I meant enthusiast.
Quoting 346. NICycloneChaser:




Good Morning.  Central Atlantic clear as a bell and SAL continues to dominate the Basin; big SAL summer so far:
354. silas

Quoting forecaster1:
Is there accessible radar sites that can be viewed to compare these sat loops to?
I highly doubt it considering that there are no islands nearby.
Neoguri IR/WV/Microwave RGB



Lightning over Disney


Quoting 350. forecaster1:

Is there accessible radar sites that can be viewed to compare these sat loops to?



Okinawa is the Island at top..on the loop.

It is 60nm x 12nm



358. Inyo
So just because something can happen to some extent naturally, you believe there is no way humans can influence it as well? It's kind of like saying forest fires are sometimes naturally ignited by lightning, so feel free to play with matches in the bedroom. And you're sharing the bedroom with billions of other people.

Absolutely the climate has naturally experienced extreme fluctuations. In addition to getting off fossil fuels we need to build up our resiliency to natural and human caused climate change. A lot of that comes down to managing water more wisely... something we need to do regardless.

Quoting 347. forecaster1:

So what happened the last five or so ice ages to cause global calamity? Did humans cause those changes?
http://www.accuweather.com/en/jp/okinawa-shi/219498 /weather-radar/219498
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/JP/Oki nawa.html Tuesday Night 100% Precip.
Windy. Thunderstorms likely, accompanied by heavy rainfall at times. Low 81F. SSW winds at 50 to 70 mph, decreasing to 40 to 60 mph. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected.
Can anyone say bye bye El Nino? The 3.4 region has dropped below 0.3C and the Nino 4 region is now below 0.0C. So much for the strong and super el nino forecasters on here!



It is no Cat4 but north Florida has been slammed at least 3 times in the last 5 days by microbursts with super heavy rainfall over short periods (4" in just over an hour at my gage), inline winds knocking down trees and power, intense lightning, localized flooding, and hail.
On the good side, the lakes can use the water. And with all that activity and decreased traffic over the holiday, the sunsets have been smog free and amazing ...like I remember 40 years ago.
Quoting 361. StormWx:

Can anyone say bye bye El Nino? The 3.4 region has dropped below 0.3C and the Nino 4 region is now below 0.0C. So much for the strong and super el nino forecasters on here!







oh put a fork in it all ready can you say stuff with out causing tourble for the blog but it is ture that EL nino has gone poof
Quoting 338. Patrap:

800,000 Year Record of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations

Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.



Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. The 2008 observed value is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and projections are based upon future emission scenarios. More information on the data can be found in the Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. report.



how can you call a presupposition of facts without merit truth when it is based on inflated numbers created by progressive liberal power-grabbing carbon-tax wanting Bohemians who twist the statistics for their own gain at the expense of everyone else....you are showing a chart of what could be, which probably wont be, and you are holding it up as if it is the gospel of Luke and it is historical fact.....

bogus man, bogus.....

why are the polar caps reforming? i thought u guys said they were supposed to be completely melted in a couple of years....

bogus man, bogus.....

Joe Bastardi FTW......
366. Siker
Quoting StormWx:
Can anyone say bye bye El Nino? The 3.4 region has dropped below 0.3C and the Nino 4 region is now below 0.0C. So much for the strong and super el nino forecasters on here!




Posted the same image twice to reinforce your point :)?
Quoting 362. biff4ugo:

It is no Cat4 but north Florida has been slammed at least 3 times in the last 5 days by microbursts with super heavy rainfall over short periods (4" in just over an hour at my gage), inline winds knocking down trees and power, intense lightning, localized flooding, and hail.
On the good side, the lakes can use the water. And with all that activity and decreased traffic over the holiday, the sunsets have been smog free and amazing ...like I remember 40 years ago.


I agree the rains have been very intense lately. I must have had a 5" per hour rain rate Saturday afternoon as you couldn't see anything outside with the rain coming down so hard. Also the lightning has been incredible!

With all of this weather across our area it has lead to awesome sunsets with a nice orange glow across the sky as the sun sets in the evening.
Quoting 366. Siker:


Posted the same image twice to reinforce your point :)?



nothing he this likes to point out stuff and say stuff this two caus tourble for the blog
It can be one of only two things. Those who deny AGW either have a very very tenuous grip on the objectively undeniably known science or just have never honestly studied the science. The latter generally being the case.
Quoting 361. StormWx:

Can anyone say bye bye El Nino? The 3.4 region has dropped below 0.3C and the Nino 4 region is now below 0.0C. So much for the strong and super el nino forecasters on here!






I never said hello to it..have a good morning all..later..
Quoting 370. ncstorm:



I never said hello to it..have a good morning all..later..


So I wonder what our friend Scott has to say about this?
And one more reason, denying revolved around $ (big oil, coal, and many others) and those who go along with the denying (The Right) to support those interests. Now once again, I'm no democrat, I vote independent and vote for both parties depending. Hate our foreign policy now equally as much as I disagreed with much of GWB's. The point is, the truth is what the truth is.
Our old neighbors now live in Okinawa and sent us this photo of their local Chili's prepping to Neoguri.
Quoting Siker:

Posted the same image twice to reinforce your point :)?


haha oops, no i updated it. :o) It does look like El Nino may have to wait a bit longer.
Morning Everyone! Loud, sloppy start to the day...again.



Surface trough been parked just offshore for a day or more at this point.

Being a Met in Orlando must be easy. 40% chance of rain every day all summer, highs in the lower 90's. LOL. Have a good week everyone. Nothing out of the ordinary this week.



Quoting 330. forecaster1:

Just do not see where Doc Masters mentioed anything in this post about climate change. Now it seems climate change freaks are arguing with each other.. stick with the weather we barely have a couple hundred years of weather records the climate changes in cycles for thousands and thousands of years and you will not live long enough to prove any of it... There is plenty of current weather to talk about.. I am. Denier I beleive in earth cycles not earth changes... weather over Fl today should be soupy again today.


Quoting 340. forecaster1:

I said freaking people out not climate freaks .


I think he was referring to the former post.
Quoting GatorWX:
Morning Everyone! Loud, sloppy start to the day...again.



Surface trough been parked just offshore for a day or more at this point.



Yeah, not the "normal" summer pattern today. Rain from Naples all the way up the west coast to just west of Tampa.
It's actually rather uncommon to have rain in the morning during the summer on the west coast.
Quoting 373. JNTenne:

Our old neighbors now live in Okinawa and sent us this photo of their local Chili's prepping to Neoguri.



Save the pepper!! That's funny
This is my real life goal and my stance.... I am interested in policy, not emotional responses there is something here that will upset and something here that will make people happy but regardless of why, things need to change, they must change... Painfully the future must be cleaner and more efficient... I look at it this way if I am sitting by a campfire somehow the smoke blows in my face and I move to avoid the dirty smoke and it blows in my face the other side of the fire... If we could make a fire that would not blow smoke in my face I think it would be great.... This is the last time I will speak of climate change on this blog .... Sorry Doc, I know better! Thursday, February 12, 2009

The Platform of Brian Thomas Campbell, Sr.
Energy
"A Plan For the Future"

Freedom from Overseas Oil, Adopt Clean New Energy Sources

Drilling Throughout the West, the Continental Shelf and in Alaska

We Must Create a 50 Year Plan to Install Infrastructure In Order To Reduce Demand for Fossil Fuels Creating a Smooth Transition Into Clean Energy Sources, Avoiding the Boom/Bust Cycle Experienced In So Many Areas, Such As Colorado, Where Energy Could Be A Major Income Source Within the Economy

Utilize Natural Gas Resources

Support Agricultural Communities by Presenting Opportunities to Diversify Using Clean Energy Sources As a Viable Source of "Backup Income" and Investment I propose that we open up oil drilling throughout the West, along the Continental Shelf and in Alaska. If you don%u2019t know it already, oil can be drilled very cleanly without destroying the environment.

The oil companies will put millions of Americans to work immediately. This will create taxes paid to the states by the oil companies and create payroll taxes from the millions of employed Americans. When these taxes begin flowing in we shall use the tax receipts to invest in hydro-power, windmills, solar, research and development, etc. Now that%u2019s a lot of jobs, right?

As we become more independent from oil, we shall retrain and educate oil worker's to become proficient in operation and maintenance of new power sources. All will be paid for by private industry and not one extra penny from tax payers. (AND NO DEBT!)

Quoting 351. guygee:

Don't try to sell me anything, just try to make a more sustainable society for your children, grandchildren, neighbors and community.

Please excuse me now I am getting late for work.
Geez.... seems like everybody's in a bad mood this morning.... I mean, I know it's Monday, after a holiday weekend, too, but gazowie....

I got up to this! :) it is going to be a good day Lol :) :)
The beginning of a shelf cloud in Loxahatchee, Florida this morning.



I am in a great mood! how are you?
Quoting 381. BahaHurican:

Geez.... seems like everybody's in a bad mood this morning.... I mean, I know it's Monday, after a holiday weekend, too, but gazowie....


Quoting 361. StormWx:

Can anyone say bye bye El Nino? The 3.4 region has dropped below 0.3C and the Nino 4 region is now below 0.0C. So much for the strong and super el nino forecasters on here!




Wait a minute so when the daily values drop it is no more El Nino and when the daily values rise it is Super El Nino, I like how this blog roles sometimes. Remember it's the averages over a 3 month span we are looking at and it's only July, most El Nino episodes don't begin until August and sometimes until October.
Quoting 378. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, not the "normal" summer pattern today. Rain from Naples all the way up the west coast to just west of Tampa.
It's actually rather uncommon to have rain in the morning during the summer on the west coast.


..kind of like last summer? Having a surface trough in the summer usually means storms for us. This one is apparently still just offshore, evident on radar. Follow the focus of the cells' energy. Mostly blow off from cells offshore that's moving onshore. Glad I have the truck and not just my bike, but I was supposed to mow. As long as it clears up before this afternoon's planned beach trip with friends, I'll be happy.
Quoting 381. BahaHurican:

Geez.... seems like everybody's in a bad mood this morning.... I mean, I know it's Monday, after a holiday weekend, too, but gazowie....


I think we are going to need to order up some more Arthur's this season. it just seems the blog is in a much better mood when we have a storm to track.
Quoting 386. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I think we are going to need to order up some more Arthur's this season. it just seems the blog is in a much better mood when we have a storm to track.


I understand what your saying here. But I was wondering if the Blog will hold out until the end of the month to the 1st of next month is the question....


Taco :o)

M 6.9 - 2km NNE of Puerto Madero, MexicoPAGER - ORANGEShakeMap - VIIDYFI? - VIIITsunami Warning Center
Time
Location
14.742°N 92.409°W
Depth
60.0km

Quoting 365. odinslightning:




a
Quoting 379. GatorWX:



Save the pepper!! That's funny


whats funny is seeing american food chains in places they really shouldn't be
Quoting GatorWX:


..kind of like last summer? Having a surface trough in the summer usually means storms for us. This one is apparently still just offshore, evident on radar. Follow the focus of the cells' energy. Mostly blow off from cells offshore that's moving onshore. Glad I have the truck and not just my bike, but I was supposed to mow. As long as it clears up before this afternoon's planned beach trip with friends, I'll be happy.


Yeah, I've had to move to plan B for the day. I didn't expect it to be raining this morning.
At my location (I'm in Gateway if you're familar with the Fort Myers area), my weather station has received .77" for the month, .44" in the last 24 hours.
does anyone know what neoguri total size is?
393. jpsb
Quoting 341. Patrap:

Science brings the bad news, man has corrupted his Biosphere.

And continues to do so in Gigatonnage.


It is estimated that by 2045 artificially Intelligent machines will become self aware. It very likely that these same machines will take a hard look at human beings and decide the planet (and the machines) would be better off without them. I just thought I'd bring some good news to the debate. No more people in 30 years!

If you believe in CAGW you are wasting your time studying climate, the final solution is in computer science.
394. SLU
Trinidad thunderstorm. The real action is at 0:27.
Quoting 386. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I think we are going to need to order up some more Arthur's this season. it just seems the blog is in a much better mood when we have a storm to track.


OK, Caleb. Where have I been telling you the next disturbance might be?
Quoting 391. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, I've had to move to plan B for the day. I didn't expect it to be raining this morning.
At my location (I'm in Gateway if you're familar with the Fort Myers area), my weather station has received .77" for the month, .44" in the last 24 hours.


It's rained here often enough lately, but we def haven't been getting totals like last June and July. I don't have a gauge, but I'd say similar totals here in Englewood.
397. JRRP
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N25W TO 11N28W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. DESPITE THE LOW LATITUDE NATURE OF THE WAVE...WITH THE MID-
LEVEL VORTEX BEING NEAR 08N...THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION INTACT
SINCE LEAVING WEST AFRICA ABOUT A DAY PREVIOUS. AN EARLIER ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH...BUT
WITHOUT A CLOSED CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 05N AND 09N.

Neoguri isn't looking quite as good.


'S all right . . . I'm better now. Just spent the last hour and a half trying to figure out how to get my new BT broadband home hub to work. I'm a real technophobe and pretty clueless. The salesman I spoke to on the phone a few days ago assured me it was very easy, and would take a few minutes, but they're paid to say how easy it all is and not to worry.

It arrived about noon, a replacement for my 'old' one which a BT engineer installed 2 years ago. I couldn't get it to work, so phoned the helpline and got this utterly useless robot asking me irrelevant questions, with a menu of phone buttons to press which had no relevance to my problem. Just as well it was a robot. The air was blue with what I thought about their 'helpline'.

I thought I must have connected the wires to the wrong sockets, then I noticed a small button on the back of the hub, which I had to press to get the power, after I'd connected it to the mains. I'd been pressing 'restart' on the front. Pressed it, and now I'm back on the Internet. No explanation about having to press this 'hidden' button in the instructions. You wouldn't believe how much this stuff winds me up. Think I need a few whiskies to wind back down again.

Any other 'technophobes' on here?
Quoting 394. SLU:

Trinidad thunderstorm. The real action is at 0:27.


A thunderstorm here in FL would have lightning like that just about every second or every 5 seconds. It's been unreal around here lately.
Can anyone say bye bye El Nino? The 3.4 region has dropped below 0.3C and the Nino 4 region is now below 0.0C. So much for the strong and super el nino forecasters on here!


ahem....albeit some of the extreme hypists of the blog have been dead wrong....the models however....have shown the current conditions in their run......i would still have to agree with the models...and also the experts on this....el nino will be here...just later than some have suggested...ok...stated....hell...even promised.. :-)
Quoting 393. jpsb:



It is estimated that by 2045 artificially Intelligent machines will become self aware. It very likely that these same machines will take a hard look at human beings and decide the planet (and the machines) would be better off without them. I just thought I'd bring some good news to the debate. No more people in 30 years!

If you believe in CAGW you are wasting your time studying climate, the final solution is in computer science.
sooooo.. are the computer intelligence forecast models any better than the weather ones?? another point is, at some point a carbon based intelligence may also be realized and that would certainly mess things a bit!
Quoting 391. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, I've had to move to plan B for the day. I didn't expect it to be raining this morning.
At my location (I'm in Gateway if you're familar with the Fort Myers area), my weather station has received .77" for the month, .44" in the last 24 hours.


Yeah the heavy storms have been favoring the inland and east coast of FL lately. OIA (orlando) picked up 2" yesterday with over 6" just east of there in eastern Orange County. 30.60" at my place so far this year with just over 25" at Orlando International.
Quoting 365. odinslightning:




how can you call a presupposition of facts without merit truth when it is based on inflated numbers created by progressive liberal power-grabbing carbon-tax wanting Bohemians who twist the statistics for their own gain at the expense of everyone else....you are showing a chart of what could be, which probably wont be, and you are holding it up as if it is the gospel of Luke and it is historical fact.....

bogus man, bogus.....

why are the polar caps reforming? i thought u guys said they were supposed to be completely melted in a couple of years....

bogus man, bogus.....

Joe Bastardi FTW......


What in the world are you talking about. The Arctic Sea ice did not recover.


Meanwhile we are losing roughly 1000 GT of Ice from all sources per year, there has been a small increase in Antarctic Sea Ice which is minimal compared to all other sources.



If you really believe the government needs to makesomething up like climate change and involve every major scientific organization, scientists, academics, student, and other governments in the conspiracy just to raise your taxes, there is no argument, fact, or data that will sway you, you believe what you want to.

And nowhere in the scientific literature was the ice "supposed to melted in a couple of years". You'd be wise to steer away from Joe B as far as climate information concerns. Poor Joe doesn't even think the greenhouse effect exists. That's special.
Quoting 392. WaterWitch11:

does anyone know what neoguri total size is?


WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 08W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 22.5N 126.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 126.8E
Quoting 365. odinslightning:




how can you call a presupposition of facts without merit truth when it is based on inflated numbers created by progressive liberal power-grabbing carbon-tax wanting Bohemians who twist the statistics for their own gain at the expense of everyone else....you are showing a chart of what could be, which probably wont be, and you are holding it up as if it is the gospel of Luke and it is historical fact.....

bogus man, bogus.....

why are the polar caps reforming? i thought u guys said they were supposed to be completely melted in a couple of years....

bogus man, bogus.....

Joe Bastardi FTW......


This is not a comment. It is pure fiction. To slander and demean a whole group of people because of their political leanings is not science. It is a mean spirited attack on the many good people on this blog that take the scientific approach as to whether climate change is nature or humankind driven. If you want to participate show the good people here that you are serious. In other words, "where are your facts"!
Quoting 393. jpsb:



It is estimated that by 2045 artificially Intelligent machines will become self aware. It very likely that these same machines will take a hard look at human beings and decide the planet (and the machines) would be better off without them. I just thought I'd bring some good news to the debate. No more people in 30 years!

If you believe in CAGW you are wasting your time studying climate, the final solution is in computer science.


You're preaching to the choir. I have also seen the documentary "Terminator".
speaking of el nino....the cpc has issued their weekly update here....more important...their monthly update comes out in 3 days
409. JRRP
Quoting ricderr:
Can anyone say bye bye El Nino? The 3.4 region has dropped below 0.3C and the Nino 4 region is now below 0.0C. So much for the strong and super el nino forecasters on here!


ahem....albeit some of the extreme hypists of the blog have been dead wrong....the models however....have shown the current conditions in their run......i would still have to agree with the models...and also the experts on this....el nino will be here...just later than some have suggested...ok...stated....hell...even promised.. :-)


i agree
i thought it might be good to look back....here is the ENSO probability model consensus from last february....just before the spring barrier when models don't do as well......




we weren't seeing things that favorable until the august/october months
in fact...it wasn't until the last reliable runs that we really saw the models agree with a good chance of el nino occurring...this is from march



so now that we are past the spring barrier....what we see...is the models only becoming more bullish...on what they already saw

anybody want to explain the low vertical instability the last 5 seasons? I have no explanation for why it's so low and even if we get el nino later, the atmosphere will take time before it becomes el nino like. hence, this season will not be below average as some people think. if only the SAL could just go away.....
here are the plume predictions for intensity...as you can see...the means is right at the cusp of a moderate event

Quoting 407. Naga5000:



You're preaching to the choir. I have also seen the documentary "Terminator".

made my morning, thanks Naga!
where were we in march......well...it was more bullish...but not that much.....

Quoting 413. wunderweatherman123:

anybody want to explain the low vertical instability the last 5 seasons? I have no explanation for why it's so low and even if we get el nino later, the atmosphere will take time before it becomes el nino like. hence, this season will not be below average as some people think. if only the SAL could just go away.....
It seems like something to due with the RH values in the mid-levels. Here is what I found from this storm2k blog.

VERTICAL INSTABILITY: The vertical average temperature difference between the equivalent potential temperature of a parcel lifted from the surface to 200 hPa, and the saturation equivalent potential temperature of the environment, for each 5 by 5 degree area.

Essentially there are two causes that would reduce the vertically averaged temperature difference in the basin:

1) Warmer than normal mid level temperatures
2) Drier than normal mid level air

SIMWMBA wrote:
Question for the mets: what has inhibited so many tropical systems this year?
As pointed out many have tracked/meandered 'struggling' through the tropics but once they gain latitude most have then gotten stronger.


I was discussing this with Dr. Phil Klotzbach earlier this week. One of my coworkers was thinking perhaps that warmer-than-normal 700mb (10,000ft) temperatures may have acted as somewhat of a cap. Phil was thinking maybe abundant mid-level dry air was a factor. Certainly, instability has been down all year across the tropics, but we're still not certain what's making the atmosphere more stable.

wxman57 wrote:
Seeing how vertical instability has clearly been below the climo norm throughout the basin this season, I would think that if mid level dry air was the main (or at least a significant) contributing factor, it would have shown itself more in the WVBT paramaters as warm anomalies. In fact, the opposite seems to be the case - WVBT anomalies have been neutral/negative for the most part, while percentage of cold WVBT pixels has largely been above normal.

Seems to make a case for the H70 temp anomaly argument. It would be interesting to see sounder based H70 temp anomalies for the Atlantic basin from JUN-SEP.
The Singularity

you doing the one armed blogging these days?
That's a very well defined eye for such a lack of deep convection.

421. JRRP

nice wave in CALT
422. jpsb
Quoting 407. Naga5000:



You're preaching to the choir. I have also seen the documentary "Terminator".



Wiki
The technological singularity, or simply the singularity, is a hypothetical moment in time when artificial intelligence, human biological enhancement, or brain-computer interfaces will have progressed to the point of a greater-than-human intelligence, radically changing civilization, and perhaps human nature.

Kurzweil predicts the singularity to occur around 2045[7] whereas Vinge predicts some time before 2030.[8] At the 2012 Singularity Summit, Stuart Armstrong did a study of artificial general intelligence (AGI) predictions by experts and found a wide range of predicted dates, with a median value of 2040.


Machines, not humans will be dominant by 2045

This is interesting too

Evolving Robots Learn To Lie To Each Other



Quoting 395. Grothar:



OK, Caleb. Where have I been telling you the next disturbance might be?
Eastern Caribbean otherwise known as the "Dead Zone" :P
Quoting 415. Patrap:

The Singularity




I thought it was interesting!
Quoting 419. ricderr:

The Singularity

you doing the one armed blogging these days?


yup, will be in this block sling till weds when i go back fo staple/sutures removal.
Quoting yonzabam:
'S all right . . . I'm better now. Just spent the last hour and a half trying to figure out how to get my new BT broadband home hub to work. .... I thought I must have connected the wires to the wrong sockets, then I noticed a small button on the back of the hub, which I had to press to get the power, after I'd connected it to the mains. I'd been pressing 'restart' on the front. Pressed it, and now I'm back on the Internet. No explanation about having to press this 'hidden' button in the instructions. You wouldn't believe how much this stuff winds me up. Think I need a few whiskies to wind back down again.

Any other 'technophobes' on here?
Might want to logon to the router, and see if you have any WiFi security. Often when default reseting those which by your recount might be the case leaves the device working but without any security. WiFi security is not that important if you live far away from other homes as its range is usually less than 1000 feet ~330 meters.

Good to hear you have it working in any case.
427. JRRP
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
It seems like something to due with the RH values in the mid-levels. Here is what I found from this storm2k blog.

VERTICAL INSTABILITY: The vertical average temperature difference between the equivalent potential temperature of a parcel lifted from the surface to 200 hPa, and the saturation equivalent potential temperature of the environment, for each 5 by 5 degree area.

Essentially there are two causes that would reduce the vertically averaged temperature difference in the basin:

1) Warmer than normal mid level temperatures
2) Drier than normal mid level air

SIMWMBA wrote:
Question for the mets: what has inhibited so many tropical systems this year?
As pointed out many have tracked/meandered 'struggling' through the tropics but once they gain latitude most have then gotten stronger.


I was discussing this with Dr. Phil Klotzbach earlier this week. One of my coworkers was thinking perhaps that warmer-than-normal 700mb (10,000ft) temperatures may have acted as somewhat of a cap. Phil was thinking maybe abundant mid-level dry air was a factor. Certainly, instability has been down all year across the tropics, but we're still not certain what's making the atmosphere more stable.

wxman57 wrote:
Seeing how vertical instability has clearly been below the climo norm throughout the basin this season, I would think that if mid level dry air was the main (or at least a significant) contributing factor, it would have shown itself more in the WVBT paramaters as warm anomalies. In fact, the opposite seems to be the case - WVBT anomalies have been neutral/negative for the most part, while percentage of cold WVBT pixels has largely been above normal.

Seems to make a case for the H70 temp anomaly argument. It would be interesting to see sounder based H70 temp anomalies for the Atlantic basin from JUN-SEP.

the last 3 years


and 2014
yup, will be in this block sling till weds when i go back fo staple remvoal/sutures too.



ouch....and then there's rehab
Quoting Patrap:
The Singularity

That'll be duality again when that shoulder heals. Wishing you a speedy recovery.
it would make since that it has to be warm anomalies in the upper levels. It appears to me that SAL has been ever-increasing in strength the past 2-3 years and this SAL layer contributes GREATLY to the warming aloft. It is a positive feed back loop in the C. Atl. The SAL blocks incoming Solar Energy but it has to be absorbed somehow, in this case warming 700mb temps.

Quoting 418. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It seems like something to due with the RH values in the mid-levels. Here is what I found from this storm2k blog.

VERTICAL INSTABILITY: The vertical average temperature difference between the equivalent potential temperature of a parcel lifted from the surface to 200 hPa, and the saturation equivalent potential temperature of the environment, for each 5 by 5 degree area.

Essentially there are two causes that would reduce the vertically averaged temperature difference in the basin:

1) Warmer than normal mid level temperatures
2) Drier than normal mid level air

SIMWMBA wrote:
Question for the mets: what has inhibited so many tropical systems this year?
As pointed out many have tracked/meandered 'struggling' through the tropics but once they gain latitude most have then gotten stronger.


I was discussing this with Dr. Phil Klotzbach earlier this week. One of my coworkers was thinking perhaps that warmer-than-normal 700mb (10,000ft) temperatures may have acted as somewhat of a cap. Phil was thinking maybe abundant mid-level dry air was a factor. Certainly, instability has been down all year across the tropics, but we're still not certain what's making the atmosphere more stable.

wxman57 wrote:
Seeing how vertical instability has clearly been below the climo norm throughout the basin this season, I would think that if mid level dry air was the main (or at least a significant) contributing factor, it would have shown itself more in the WVBT paramaters as warm anomalies. In fact, the opposite seems to be the case - WVBT anomalies have been neutral/negative for the most part, while percentage of cold WVBT pixels has largely been above normal.

Seems to make a case for the H70 temp anomaly argument. It would be interesting to see sounder based H70 temp anomalies for the Atlantic basin from JUN-SEP.
Super Typhoon Neoguri, the strongest typhoon so far in the 2014 Western Pacific season, is an extremely dangerous tropical cyclone as it churns toward Okinawa and potentially other parts of Japan over the next couple of days.

The system became a typhoon – the Western Pacific equivalent of a hurricane – on Friday. Neoguri is currently turning northward about 340 miles south of Kadena Air Base, the U.S. Air Force installation on the island of Okinawa.

(PHOTOS: Hurricane Arthur Slams the U.S. East Coast)

The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated Neoguri's sustained winds to be as high as 155 miles per hour as of early Monday evening U.S. time (late afternoon Monday Japanese time), with higher gusts. This made Neoguri the equivalent of a high-end Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

When Neoguri's winds reached an estimated 150 mph earlier Sunday, it earned the "super typhoon" designation from JTWC. Neoguri means "raccoon" in Korean, according to a Sydney Morning Herald report.

Super Typhoon Neoguri, the strongest typhoon so far in the 2014 Western Pacific season, is an extremely dangerous tropical cyclone as it churns toward Okinawa and potentially other parts of Japan over the next couple of days.

The system became a typhoon – the Western Pacific equivalent of a hurricane – on Friday. Neoguri is currently turning northward about 340 miles south of Kadena Air Base, the U.S. Air Force installation on the island of Okinawa.

(PHOTOS: Hurricane Arthur Slams the U.S. East Coast)

The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated Neoguri's sustained winds to be as high as 155 miles per hour as of early Monday evening U.S. time (late afternoon Monday Japanese time), with higher gusts. This made Neoguri the equivalent of a high-end Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

When Neoguri's winds reached an estimated 150 mph earlier Sunday, it earned the "super typhoon" designation from JTWC. Neoguri means "raccoon" in Korean, according to a Sydney Morning Herald report.
AVN Loop

JMA is doing hour advisories now.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37B
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NEOGURI (T1408)
23:00 PM JST July 7 2014
=============================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon About 280 KM South Southeast Of Miyakojima

At 14:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Neoguri (930 hPa) located at 22.7N 126.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
110 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
375 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
240 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Good for BBC! Will US networks decree this also (or that matter this blog)? Link
Typhoon 08W NEOGURI

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2014 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 22:51:37 N Lon : 126:40:51 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 947.1mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.5 2.3

Center Temp : +14.7C Cloud Region Temp : -41.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.60 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 23:03:35 N Lon: 127:04:48 E

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 205km
- Environmental MSLP : 1001mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.8 degrees



Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :

- Average 34 knot radii : 205km
- Environmental MSLP : 1001mb

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/cli mate-change-could-make-red-3814089
Quoting Patrap:


441. SuzK
Quoting 347. forecaster1:

So what happened the last five or so ice ages to cause global calamity? Did humans cause those changes?


Humans are rolling the dice that negative feedback loops won't begin to roll against us and bring about a swift climate change, in a decade or less, that humans can't keep up with. We think it could be a warm forcing, but if it goes for a cold forcing we are all in trouble. It's happened before without our help. With what energy would we heat our 7 billion selves?
Quoting 434. Guysgal:

Good for BBC! Will US networks decree this also (or that matter this blog)? Link


We've been arguing this point on Dr. Rood's blog for sometime. Major sites like Reddit's /r/science have implemented rules that only allow discussion with peer reviewed, published science thereby removing the conspiracy climate change crowd from the community, as well as the vaccine denier crowd. I hope at the very least American news organizations follow the lead, continuing the false debate doesn't help us.
Cooler and Drier this morning!

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Mon, 07 Jul 8:11 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Mon, 07 Jul 8:00 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
07 Jul 8:00 am PDT 75 41 30 E 3G05 OK
Sequia en Puerto Rico:
Según el coordinador de avisos del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología, Ernesto Morales, se espera que a finales de mes el Monitor de Sequía de los Estados Unidos clasifique a la Isla en un periodo de sequía moderado.

Quoting Patrap:
Climate Change Freaks?

I do digress on dat.

Since when is science, freakish?
Richard Dawkins -- Science Works!


#438

Jul 05, 2014 08:40 By Dailyrecord.co.uk 151 Comments
A DNA expert has has made the bold claim that ginger hair gene could die out if Scotland climate improves


REDHEADS could become extinct as Scotland gets sunnier, experts have claimed.

The gene that causes red hair is thought to be an evolutionary response to the lack of sun in Scotland.

Redhead colouring allows people to get the maximum vitamin D from what little sun there is.
Quoting 403. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah the heavy storms have been favoring the inland and east coast of FL lately. OIA (orlando) picked up 2" yesterday with over 6" just east of there in eastern Orange County. 30.60" at my place so far this year with just over 25" at Orlando International.


The weird "avoid the west coast of Florida" pattern continues. While a west flow does favor your side of the state for rain, in past years we at least got heavy rain in the AM with a west flow. However, despite an extremely moist and unstable environment, and 88 degree water temps, numerous thunderstorms over the gulf look impressive but keep collapsing before reaching the coast.

I'm not really sure I have an explanation for this. Its probably the weirdest weather I've ever seen for this time of year given the persistence.
448. SLU
Quoting 421. JRRP:


nice wave in CALT


The 19th and best wave so far this year.

Quoting 446. Patrap:

#438

Jul 05, 2014 08:40 By Dailyrecord.co.uk 151 Comments
A DNA expert has has made the bold claim that ginger hair gene could die out if Scotland climate improves


REDHEADS could become extinct as Scotland gets sunnier, experts have claimed.

The gene that causes red hair is thought to be an evolutionary response to the lack of sun in Scotland.

Redhead colouring allows people to get the maximum vitamin D from what little sun there is.


A nonsensical piece. The Scottish Daily Record is a dumbed down rag for dunderheids (Scottish word - look it up). Makes me embarrassed to be Scottish. Who said global warming would make Scotland sunnier? I doubt if any climate scientist would be so rash. Predicting regional effects of climate change is problematic, and although I've seen scenarios predicted for the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and monsoon regions etc, I don't think anyone claims to have a handle on future changes to UK weather.
Quoting Jedkins01:


The weird "avoid the west coast of Florida" pattern continues. While a west flow does favor your side of the state for rain, in past years we at least got heavy rain in the AM with a west flow. However, despite an extremely moist and unstable environment, and 88 degree water temps, numerous thunderstorms over the gulf look impressive but keep collapsing before reaching the coast.

I'm not really sure I have an explanation for this. Its probably the weirdest weather I've ever seen for this time of year given the persistence.


Currently I have 76 degrees (rain cooled air) at my house in Fort Myers.
GOM water temperature is averaging 87 - 91 degrees.
Lots of heat energy over the water vs. land at my location.

Later this afternoon the areas that have heated up (sun is out) should see thunderstorms fire off.

Quoting 439. Patrap:




Appearance reminds me of Katrina's degradation upon landfall. Nice eye with both, but relatively modest convection.
Nice area of ThunderStorms developing just to the East of the Bahama's .


Gaw-jus 86.5F here,low humidity


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
836 am CDT Monday Jul 7 2014

..sounding discussion...

Balloon launch was successful this morning reaching a height of
around 105,900 feet before bursting west of the Slidell Airport. A
strong low-level temperature inversion is currently in place. The
column of air is anomalously dry...with precipitable water values
under an inch. This is 2 Standard deviations below normal for this
time of year and as mentioned below created a very pleasant Fourth
of July weekend.

Ansorge
Still forecasting Typhoon Neoguri to be 110 knots at landfall in Japan!

456. SLU
Quoting 400. StormTrackerScott:



A thunderstorm here in FL would have lightning like that just about every second or every 5 seconds. It's been unreal around here lately.


That's some pretty heavy stuff. Our weather isn't usually that rough when it comes to thunderstorm activity.
Quoting 447. Jedkins01:



The weird "avoid the west coast of Florida" pattern continues. While a west flow does favor your side of the state for rain, in past years we at least got heavy rain in the AM with a west flow. However, despite an extremely moist and unstable environment, and 88 degree water temps, numerous thunderstorms over the gulf look impressive but keep collapsing before reaching the coast.

I'm not really sure I have an explanation for this. Its probably the weirdest weather I've ever seen for this time of year given the persistence.


HWRF

BOC





Anybody know why climatological Atlantic Vertical Instability changed?

Archive 2013 trough ~-7, peak ~+4




Current: trough ~-6, peak ~0

Local news reported 3" of rain in Port Charlotte.
Ok, let's fast forward to August
SW Florida coastal areas getting some much need precip! My friend in Estero is becoming unglued about lack of " normal summertime southeasterly flow boomers". Southeasterly flow not causing these today, but he will take it I am sure.

Quoting 458. ncstorm:

HWRF

BOC






Hmm.
Quoting 463. opal92nwf:

Ok, let's fast forward to August
Do you think in about 25 days like you said we would see some developments and if so where? I think in about 20 days time too.
Quoting 467. Climate175:

( Ahem, Grothar say it first, as in saying about lower pressures).


havent been on here..so good for Grothar..just pointing out the HWRF model..
Quoting 459. jpsb:




To maintain its authority, the church suppressed heretics. The church had a very specific definition of heresy: A heretic publicly declared his beliefs and refused to denounce them, even after being corrected by the authority. He also tried to teach his beliefs to other people. He had to be doing these things by his own free will, not under the influence of the devil.


http://history.howstuffworks.com/historical-figur es/spanish-inquisition1.htm


There is no scientific discourse establishing a skeptical position. If you want to be in the discussion, you're going to need to make some evidence.



" over several years I have reviewed 25,182 scientific articles in peer-reviewed journals. Only 26, about 1 in 1,000, in my judgment reject anthropogenic global warming. I describe my methodology here Link.

Instead of coalescing around a rival theory to anthropogenic global warming, the rejecting articles offer a hodgepodge of alternatives, none of which has caught on. The dissenting articles are rarely cited, even by other dissenters. A groundswell this is not. The 26 rejecting articles have had no discernible influence on science.

Very few of the most vocal global warming deniers, those who write op-eds and blogs and testify to congressional committees, have ever written a peer-reviewed article in which they say explicitly that anthropogenic global warming is false. Why? Because then they would have to provide the evidence and, evidently, they don't have it.

What can we conclude?

1. There a mountain of scientific evidence in favor of anthropogenic global warming and no convincing evidence against it.

2. Those who deny anthropogenic global warming have no alternative theory to explain the observed rise in atmospheric CO2 and global temperature.

These two facts together mean that the so-called debate over global warming is an illusion, a hoax conjured up by a handful of apostate scientists and a misguided and sometimes colluding media, aided and abetted by funding from fossil fuel companies and right wing foundations.

On the one side, we have a mountain of scientific evidence, on the other, ideology and arm-waving. On that basis, we are endangering our grandchildren’s future and pushing humanity toward the destruction of civilization. " -James Lawrence Powell - currently the executive director of the National Physical Science Consortium, previous positions can be found here Link

Let's not pretend there is some other side that is being left out of the discussion or pretend this is the Spanish Inquisition. Such hyperbole only make the argument look even more foolish. If there was any evidence suggesting AGW is not real, where is it in the scientific discourse? Why does it only exist in ideology, opinion pieces, and non reviewed pseudo science sites? C'mon.
Quoting 462. Sfloridacat5:

Local news reported 3" of rain in Port Charlotte.



Sorry, didn't see your post before I posted....double whammy....lol
Quoting 469. ncstorm:



havent been on here..so good for Grothar..just pointing out the HWRF model..
Oh ok, i didn't mean to be rude, pardon me.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Tropical Weather Outlook Text
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure, located just offshore of the coast of
the Carolinas, is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Surface pressures remain high across the area and
strong upper-level winds should prevent any significant development
of this system as it moves northeastward at about 15 mph over the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Roberts/Pasch

China flooding forms seven-metre-deep lake in Hunan province

6 July 2014 Last updated at 09:22 BST

Heavy rainfall in parts of China has formed a lake of more than 150 sq km (58 sq miles).

The flooding in Hunan province is up to seven metres (23ft) deep in some areas.

Torrential rain across central and southern China has submerged cars, houses and entire roads, leaving some people stranded.

Emily Thomas reports.

Link

Quoting yonzabam:
'S all right . . . I'm better now. Just spent the last hour and a half trying to figure out how to get my new BT broadband home hub to work. I'm a real technophobe and pretty clueless. The salesman I spoke to on the phone a few days ago assured me it was very easy, and would take a few minutes, but they're paid to say how easy it all is and not to worry.

It arrived about noon, a replacement for my 'old' one which a BT engineer installed 2 years ago. I couldn't get it to work, so phoned the helpline and got this utterly useless robot asking me irrelevant questions, with a menu of phone buttons to press which had no relevance to my problem. Just as well it was a robot. The air was blue with what I thought about their 'helpline'.

I thought I must have connected the wires to the wrong sockets, then I noticed a small button on the back of the hub, which I had to press to get the power, after I'd connected it to the mains. I'd been pressing 'restart' on the front. Pressed it, and now I'm back on the Internet. No explanation about having to press this 'hidden' button in the instructions. You wouldn't believe how much this stuff winds me up. Think I need a few whiskies to wind back down again.

Any other 'technophobes' on here?
I can relate. I'm about to go back to cable for broadband. I shifted to DSL based on a false ad by the incumbent phone company a couple years back. It's been nothing but frustration. Today, I've had to reset the connection half a dozen times. For no good reason. Grrr..

Here in the U.S. we were #1 in broadband connectivity in 1998. Today we are about #35 globally. The big boys like Comcast and Time-Warner eat this stuff up. They have a net profit of 97% on broadband because they refuse to upgrade their equipment. It's a damn shame they own Congress and can gouge the public so viciously for such crappy service.
Quoting 465. JRRP:



my god almighty
what did she say ?
That is embarrassing to watch.

Quoting Guysgal:
Good for BBC! Will US networks decree this also (or that matter this blog)? Link
Well, this is an improvement over the BBC management directive of 2011 (as I recall) to limit discussion of global warming issues. In other words, the managers felt the public needed to forget about the topic for a while.

We'll have to see how this new policy evolves. In the meantime, I'm certain the Telegraph, Daily Mail and David Cameron's government can pick up the slack and continue slagging the climate denial meme at the masses.
Quoting 361. StormWx:

Can anyone say bye bye El Nino? The 3.4 region has dropped below 0.3C and the Nino 4 region is now below 0.0C. So much for the strong and super el nino forecasters on here!






That's the Levi Cowan graph. The buoys have not agreed with that satellite data.
Quoting 413. wunderweatherman123:

anybody want to explain the low vertical instability the last 5 seasons? I have no explanation for why it's so low and even if we get el nino later, the atmosphere will take time before it becomes el nino like. hence, this season will not be below average as some people think. if only the SAL could just go away.....
I still think, as I said some time ago on here, that the errant polar jet stream is contributing a lot of that. The cold air that gets pulled deep South by the deep meanders in the polar jet is dry air, which gets drier as it warms up over the oceans. The reduced temperature differentials also reduce the gradients. The atmospheric stability that should result is what we've been seeing. In a warming world all those effects will probably increase in strength, and I'll be expecting the Atlantic hurricane season to be adversely (for the storm chasers) affected.