WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Which Intensity Model Should You Trust for Tropical Storm Arthur?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:55 PM GMT on July 01, 2014

The Atlantic's first storm of 2014 is here, as Tropical Storm Arthur was named at 11 am EDT Tuesday by NHC. Arthur's formation date of July 1 comes a week before the typical July 8 appearance of the Atlantic's first named storm, but is the latest the first named storm of the season has appeared since 2009, when Tropical Storm Ana formed on August 12.


Figure 1. Melbourne, Florida radar image of Tropical Storm Arthur at 2:20 pm EDT July 1, 2014.

Arthur was drifting northwest at 5 mph towards the east coast of Central Florida early Tuesday afternoon. Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida on Tuesday afternoon showed that bands of heavy rain from Arthur were affecting the Northwest Bahamas, and the top sustained winds observed in the Bahamas as of 2 pm EDT Tuesday were 36 mph, gusting to 41 mph at Settlement Point in the Northwest Bahama Islands at 8 am EDT. Top winds Tuesday morning and early afternoon at the buoy 23 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida were 22 mph, gusting to 26 mph, with a significant wave height of 4.3'. Satellite loops showed heavy thunderstorms were limited to the south side of Arthur's center of circulation early Tuesday afternoon, and were slowly increasing in intensity and areal coverage, with new spiral bands forming. The clockwise circulation of an upper level high pressure over Florida was bringing northerly winds over Arthur at high altitude, and these winds were creating moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots. Water vapor satellite loops showed dry air to the north of Arthur, and the northerly winds were driving this dry air into the storm, interfering with development. However, Arthur has moistened its environment considerably since Monday, and the storm is beginning to wall off the dry air to the north.


Figure 2. Water vapor satellite image of Arthur taken at 1:15 pm EDT Monday July 1, 2014. A large area of dry air (black colors) was to the north of the system, and was interfering with development. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Forecast for Arthur
The models are in good agreement that a trough of low pressure passing to the north of Arthur will turn the storm northwards by Tuesday night and northeastwards by Wednesday. On this track, the Outer Banks of North Carolina will be the land areas at greatest risk of a direct hit, though the cone of uncertainty encompasses the entire coast of North Carolina. Given the degree of model unanimity, the cone of uncertainty is likely thinner than presented. The latest 12Z Tuesday runs of our top two track models, the GFS and European (ECMWF) models, both show Arthur passing very close to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina between 8 am - 2 pm EDT Friday, July 4.

Which Intensity Model Should You Trust?
According to the 2013 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report, issued in April 2014, the official NHC intensity forecasts in 2013 for Atlantic storms were their best ever. However, this success is likely because of the lack of any rapidly intensifying major hurricanes in 2013, which are typically the source of the largest forecast errors. NHC 72-hour intensity forecasts errors in 2013 averaged about 10 mph, and were biased too high at most forecast times. As shown in Figure 3, over the past three years, the official NHC intensity forecast has generally outperformed their four main intensity models. These four models were the dynamical HWRF and GFDL models, which subdivide the atmosphere into a 3-D grid around the storm and solve the atmospheric equations of fluid flow at each point on the grid, and the statistics-based LGEM and DSHP models (DSHP is the SHIPS model with inland decay of a storm factored in.) The top-performing global dynamical models for hurricane track, the GFS and European (ECMWF) models, are typically not considered by NHC forecasters when making intensity forecasts. The GFS model has done a decent job at making intensity forecasts over the past three years, but the European model has made poor intensity forecasts. In 2013 and for the period 2011 - 2013, the HWRF model was the best-performing intensity model for forecasts of 48 hours or less. The LGEM statistical model was the best one at longer-term intensity forecasts of 3 - 5 days.


Figure 3. Skill of computer model intensity forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2011 - 2013, compared to a "no skill" model called "Decay-SHIFOR5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane intensity forecast (persistence means that a storm will tend to maintain its current behavior.) NHC=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; LGEM=Logistic Growth Equation Model; DSHP=Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with inland Decay. Image credit: 2013 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

The official NHC 72-hour intensity forecast issued at 11 am EDT Tuesday makes Arthur a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on Friday morning at 8 am EDT, when the storm is expected to make its closest pass to the North Carolina coast. The two best models we have for making 72-hour intensity forecasts, the LGEM and DSHP models, predicted in their 8 am EDT runs that at 8 am EDT Friday Arthur would be a tropical storm with 70 mph winds or a Category 1 hurricane with 95 mph winds, respectively. NHC typically relies on consensus models that average together several of the intensity models, so it is not a surprise that the official forecast of an 80 mph storm at 72 hours is close to the result gotten by averaging together the two top intensity models for making 72-hour forecasts, the LGEM and DSHP models.

Sources of Model Data
You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on wunderground's wundermap with the model layer turned on.
FSU's experimental hurricane forecast page (CMC, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM models)
NOAA's HFIP model comparison page (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, FIM9, UKMET, and CMC models.)
Experimental HFIP models

Links
Webcam on the buoy 23 miles east of Cape Canaveral, FL

I'll have a new post on Wednesday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

why do they have tro[ical storm warning up here since yesterday,,,, for what all the dry air comming on the west side of the storm that is barely scrapping the coast?
You know... for being mentioned in every update, blog, and discussion for the last 5 days, havent seen practically anything here in melbourne. Dont even think we got a band lol.
And the lawn furniture!!!!! Just think of the lawn furniture!!!!!!!
Quoting 1489. BahaHurican:

StormTop is still on the site, IIRC.... just doesn't post in here.

Glad to see Arthur pulling away. This is the first break Freeport has had since the invest dropped down on them....


No way? ST is still around??? He's been MIA since '05 or '06...
Quoting LASTCALLFORWRONG:
omg not thunder and lightening......


What's interesting is with really strong tropical systems you might not see much lightning or hear much thunder especially near the core/eye wall of the system.

Quoting 1469. presslord:

I am VERY concerned about the potential of this 'storm' to cause a dreary day!!!!
You should be - we've had 2 or 3 of em already this week all due to Arthur.
Thank God for cloud cover.... lol ...

Quoting 1491. NCHurricane2009:


I'd watch those recent bursts near the center. I am thinking pretty soon they'll wrap around and Arthur's core will look impressive and take him to hurricane strength by late tonight or early tomorrow AM...
Sounds realistic. Despite the thin western half Arthur looks more like a TS this morning. Getting away from the FL coast and into the GA Bight might also be useful...
Oh, no!!!!! Someone is getting pissed on a blog!!!!!! It's The end of Time!!!!!
1509. HCW

Quoting 1503. presslord:

And the lawn furniture!!!!! Just think of the lawn furniture!!!!!!!
But after the storm you can go looting and find better stuff including lawn furniture  :) Have a good day Presslord it's good seeing you back again for another action packed season
Quoting 1496. silas:


For that to happen it needs to build more convection on its western half and mix out some of that ever present dry air. If Arthur wants to become a hurricane he's going to have to fight for it.


Agreed that he'll have to fight for hurricane strength...which is why I don't think he will until the overnight tonight. But if those bursts can wrap around and make a decent core...then at least the core could get robust against the dry air.
1512. ncstorm
Presslord, Sar2401 and LastCallForWrong all walked into a bar..
New convective burst around the center needs to help Arthur wrap around, closing off dry air ang giving it a better center

But just look. 11 AM yesterday it got named and was at 40mph
Not hardly a day later and he's 20mph stronger.

Id say this has been a good 21 hours.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
I agree that the govt is not the most organized or efficient but to start the morning off that way so the real question is: have you had your coffee yet this morning? Have some leftover cake with that coffee. Makes a great breakfast.

Good Morning!


Incredible! That's exactly what I did...I had cake with coffee for breakfast! :)
There are many wonderful, accurate and appropriate informational resources for the people of North Carolina to use in preparation for whatever this turns out to be. I am not one of them. Anyone who takes action based upon some comment I make in a blog...deserves to die...
Quoting 1512. ncstorm:

Presslord, Sar2401 and LastCallForWrong all walked into a bar..


And none of them walked out straight.
Quoting 1504. StormJunkie:



No way? ST is still around??? He's been MIA since '05 or '06...
I think he's been maintaining his own blog... was still there a while back when I checked in...
1520. RevInFL
Quoting 1512. ncstorm:

Presslord, Sar2401 and LastCallForWrong all walked into a bar..
And only Presslord walked-out!
Don't pay not attention to them


Quoting 1512. ncstorm:

Presslord, Sar2401 and LastCallForWrong all walked into a bar..
The storms in the GOM are most likely the result of dry air being pulled down around the system. This dry air is acting as a frontal boundary setting off the storms.
Most likely a drier than normal day for most of Florida today.
Quoting 1512. ncstorm:

Presslord, Sar2401 and LastCallForWrong all walked into a bar..


Wouldn't ya think they'd have seen it?!?!?!1
I wonder if Arthur will end the Atlantic basin hurricane drought we've been having.

Last year we only had 2 hurricanes (Humberto and Ingrid)...and neither exceeded cat 1. If Arthur becomes cat 2, he'll be the first greater-than-cat 1 hurricanes since Sandy in October 2012.
Quoting 1524. NCHurricane2009:

I wonder if Arthur will end the Atlantic basin hurricane drought we've been having.

Last year we only had 2 hurricanes (Humberto and Ingrid)...and neither exceeded cat 1. If Arthur becomes cat 2, he'll be the first greater-than-cat 1 hurricanes since Sandy in October 2012.


And isn't it hard to imagine we haven't had a Cat 4 since Ophelia..
Quoting 1522. Sfloridacat5:

The storms in the GOM are most likely the result of dry air being pulled down around the system. This dry air is acting as a frontal boundary setting off the storms.




have you not been following the commets of other blogers they are saying that dry air is starting too get mixs out and the storm is looking march better
has anyone seen the 3 to 6 inches of rain and tropical storms winds forcasted for days now in central and north florida yet? everyone is in a panic waiting
Quoting 1522. Sfloridacat5:

The storms in the GOM are most likely the result of dry air being pulled down around the system. This dry air is acting as a frontal boundary setting off the storms.
Most likely a drier the normal day for most of Florida today.



Not the case models are showing lots of deep convection firing over E C FL in a few hours and wrapping into Arthur. Going to be a rainy day here in Orlando.
Quoting 1494. presslord:

I shudder to think what might happen if there is actually thunder and lightening from this system!!! It is just to horrifying to contemplate!!!!


Tropical Systems have very little lightning associated with them. If there is lightning most of it will be on the outer bands.
1531. Brock31
Quoting 1494. presslord:
I shudder to think what might happen if there is actually thunder and lightening from this system!!! It is just to horrifying to contemplate!!!!


How is weight a factor with a tropical cyclone? Is there a relative density variation evident between storms of differing intensity?
1532. silas

Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Agreed that he'll have to fight for hurricane strength...which is why I don't think he will until the overnight tonight. But if those bursts can wrap around and make a decent core...then at least the core could get robust against the dry air.
That could happen and it very well may, but keep in mind, there is NO guarantee that Arthur will win this fight. (not saying he won't)
Quoting 1518. StormTrackerScott:



And none of them walked out straight.


All of them started wearing dresses? (sorry couldn't resist)
Just setting something straight here...

I dont look at Arthur and try to find another storm like Alex or Beryl and say "Well these storms could do the same thing cause they're similar"

I'm sure we all agree that Alex is a good analog for track and possible intensity. I don't think any of us are saying "Alex did this so Arthur will do the same"
Good morning. Its a bright clear morning here in Down Town Miami. No rain yesterday either.
1536. HCW
Live by the models die by the models now only if a model would go near me  :)
Quoting 142. Alec:

Stormtop may be on the shuttle.


Found lot's of old remarks regarding ST...but no ST blog.
the first of many fish and coast scrappers of the year ..... watch how sal and shear kills everything again this year.... also remember the words fizzle and pooof all season also
Quoting 1520. RevInFL:

And only Presslord walked-out!


Speaking of bars I need a drink it's been a long week already for me. Better yet Jager Bomb!
Everyone told me..."Oz, don't waste your time and money chasing Tropical Storm Dolly."

Do not count out any cyclone until the low dissipates.
1542. Michfan
Quoting 1529. StormTrackerScott:



Not the case models are showing lots of deep convection firing over E C FL in a few hours and warping into Arthur. Going to be a rainy day here in Orlando.


Yup one of those bands is gonna move in here shortly.
I have been on this blog since 2004 and it amazes me how the same folks can be so wrong so often yet continue to be the trolls they complain about. Hurricanes and weather do not care what you think or predict. Mother nature will always prove you wrong! The goal for me is to learn and share differing opinions with each other to create new ways of looking at these unnecessarily dangerous storms.... Some folks rely on the NHC some on NWS some like me use their eyes. Together we may be able to spot something that the pros do not see. Many eyes and minds working together we may figure this stuff out one day... God bless you and your opinion! My work actually involves a signal in early formations which I have seen many times, every time I have verified this signature during the tropical depression stage the storms hit cat 2 or better... What is your goal?
Quoting 1513. LASTCALLFORWRONG:

storm warning have just been dropped for melbourne south...... another goof they didnt get anything like we thought


I'm not sure you understand the purpose of watches and warnings...
Which blog is STORMTOP's?
Added quote:
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think he's been maintaining his own blog... was still there a while back when I checked in...
Quoting 1541. BahaHurican:

Amazing. No wonder you r screaming around here. Obviously you can't read, or you don't have the faintest idea what a TS WATCH is all about. Maybe it's just the word MAY you don't understand..... sad. You can figure out how to join and rejoin this blog, but you can't accurately interpret as simple watch message..... pitiful.



can you guys plzs stop feeding him i wish they re move the quote its really enter fear with the ones you have on ignore
I think the longer the storm moves North and the longer it takes it to turn NE the Models MAY shift closer to the coast or on the coast...if it turns NE faster then they will shift east


Well good morning Arthur.
People in the Outer Banks need to prepare for a decent storm there. No matter the impacts or lack there of in Florida, North Carolina looks like they will get more of a direct blow. And just because it may be a category one or 2 doesn't mean anything. Look at Isaac, Irene. Both cat 1 storms, both were decent and both have the potential to take lives. Best wishes to all down there in the Carolinas. And best wishes to all on here having to deal with the trolls :D Have a fantastic day everyone.
Part of discussion from Charleston NWS: Per coordination with NHC...should the
westward trend continue with the 12z models...then a Tropical
Storm Warning may be needed for portions of the lower South
Carolina coast
Guess this was before all caps took hold of his life....

Quoting STORMTOP:
lefty i see some real explosive development near the center..ther eis no doubt they will find katrina down there...this strengthing all ready and has been moving on a wnwn to nw course which keeps it off of cuba...s fla will be hit and the keys sometime tomorrow night and then the gulf ovf mexico..the data i read shows katrina turning more towards the nw towards the louisiana coast and coming on shore just west of grand isle a s a cat 3 sometime late firday night and early sat....also the storm has picked up speed....this data i went over has not changed and the atmosphere has louisiana written all over it...lefty it sure looks like im goin gto beat you with the name...katrina will be the gulf storm and lee will be yours...one thing i dont agree with is they have it a cat 3 but after seeing what happen to jose after he intensified so rapidly being that close to land im still sticking to my cat 5 winds of 170 mph slamming into louisiana west of grand isle ......
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Not the case models are showing lots of deep convection firing over E C FL in a few hours and wrapping into Arthur. Going to be a rainy day here in Orlando.


It would be nice. Yesterday the models greatly overhyped the precipitation across Florida.

My area today - 40% chance of T storms (late afternoon best bet). Tomorrow 30%.

Don't see it being a rainy day in Orlando today. I would say mostly sunny with occasional T storms quickly passing through the area.
Quoting 1540. CycloneOz:

Everyone told me..."Oz, don't waste your time and money chasing Tropical Storm Dolly."

Do not count out any cyclone until the low dissipates.
That Dolly footage was boss...

AHHHHHHHHHHH


where the mods this AM this blog really needs two get clean up and hop fulley get rid of some of the trolls that are on
I don't think they have trended either way for 12 Z

Quoting 1554. SCwannabee:

Part of discussion from Charleston NWS: Per coordination with NHC...should the
westward trend continue with the 12z models...then a Tropical
Storm Warning may be needed for portions of the lower South
Carolina coast
The date stamp on that post was August 23 '05 if anyone was wondering.
I been reporting some of them Taz


Quoting 1559. Tazmanian:

AHHHHHHHHHHH


where the mods this AM this blog really needs two get clean up and hop fulley get rid of some of the trolls that are on
1565. RevInFL
StormTrackerScott: What do you anticipate for Brevard County as the day goes on? I have some important errands to run and trying to not get caught. The entrance of our street floods every day with just our normal rain.
The storm appears to be moving straight to the North right now no sign of any east component yet
Quoting 1564. weatherlover94:

I been reporting some of them Taz





that what we sould all be doing reporting them not feeding them
Quoting 1557. Sfloridacat5:



It would be nice. Yesterday the models greatly overhyped the precipitation across Florida.

My area today - 40% chance of T storms (late afteroon best bet). Tomorrow 30%.

Don't see it being a rainy day in Orlando today. I would say mostly sunny with an occasional T storm quickly passing through the area.


Rain is going to focus across C FL over the next week as trough sets up across C & N FL in the wake of Arthur. Also the models are painting a wet picture all across E C FL today with 1" to 2" of rain across the area. S FL saw over 4" in some areas yesterday from a band on the south side of Arthur.
Good morning everybody!
Shear in the Gulf is way down


Quoting 1565. RevInFL:

StormTrackerScott: What do you anticipate for Brevard County as the day goes on? I have some important errands to run and trying to not get caught. The entrance of our street floods every day with just our normal rain.


Passing rain showers some heavy moving thru the rest of today with winds from the NW in the 15 to 20mph range nothing out of the norm today.
1573. Brock31
Business as usual here in Wilmington NC.

I hope we get some rain outta this. My grass is crispy dry and we need some waves REALLY bad.
Tropical Storm arthur still a tropical storm maybe a hurricane by Thursday!!
Quoting 1556. StormJunkie:

Guess this was before all caps took hold of his life....




WOW! Talk about nailing a forecast! That guy hit nothing but net.
Quoting 1546. Barefootontherocks:

Which blog is STORMTOP's?
Added quote:



Didn't he come back as Stormkat, or something like that as well?
Quoting 1568. StormTrackerScott:



Rain is going to focus across C FL over the next week as trough sets up across C & N FL in the wake of Arthur. Also the models are painting a wet picture all across E C FL today with 1" to 2" of rain across the area. S FL saw over 4" in some areas yesterday from a band on the south side of Arthur.
like i was saying for 5 days now,,, they will cause panic and nothing will happen and as you see i have been correct again as usual. 10 years current and running strong again this year
Quoting LASTCALLFORWRONG:
why do they have tro[ical storm warning up here since yesterday,,,, for what all the dry air comming on the west side of the storm that is barely scrapping the coast?


I'm not sure where your version of "here" is, but the warnings are because of the proximity to Arthur both for land and along the coast. Upper level winds will affect air traffic as well as marine traffic at sea level.
Also, the forecasting models suggest how big the wind field is along with how big it might become and the direction the storm will go in.
It's weather and nothing in forecasting is guaranteed.
If I were in the area of the storm/soon to be hurricane, I would have the appropriate supplies I needed to survive for a few weeks just in case of any possible scenario.
If you don't end up using your supplies in your storm preparedness, stick around 'cause there will likely be another storm after this one at some point.
Agreed. In my opinion this blog is for serious talk and helping keep each other safe through Hurricanes and tropical weather and if your not here for that and you come on here to act stupid and make jokes of us then you need to go !

Quoting 1567. Tazmanian:



that what we sould all be doing reporting them not feeding them
Arthur's main job today is to mix out the dry air entrained into his circulation...
Good Morning Folks.  The speculation aside, the NHC tracks are the best in the business and here are their general stats from the link at the bottom of their cone.  Pretty good track record and any minor adjustments, based on model consensus or typical jogs on approach to land,, might mean a difference of 50 or 200 miles.  The point is that you need to trust the cone and take appropriate precautions if you are "in" the cone.  Don't focus on the centerline because a jog to either side of the center could make a huge difference and particularly if you live on the Carolina coast for this particular storm:

The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The circle radii defining the cones in 2014 for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins are given in the table below.

One can also examine historical tracks to determine how often the entire 5-day path of a cyclone remains completely within the area of the cone. This is a different perspective that ignores most timing errors. For example, a storm moving very slowly but in the expected direction would still be within the area of the cone, even though the track forecast error could be very large. Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time.

1583. MahFL
Please don't quote the trolls, click the red flag instead, thank you.
Quoting BahaHurican:
That Dolly footage was boss...

Which blog is STORMTOP's?
1585. MahFL
Oh I've been here 10 years, how time flies !
Quoting 1583. MahFL:

Please don't quote the trolls, click the red flag instead, thank you.



better yet they need too re move the quote ASAP
lmao. That previous ST quote was JUST before they "renamed" it 12....

Quoting STORMTOP:
we have td 12 and it will be katrina in a few hours.......
1588. Greg01
Quoting 1578. Fl30258713:


I'm not sure where your version of "here" is, but the warnings are because of the proximity to Arthur both for land and along the coast. Upper level winds will affect air traffic as well as marine traffic at sea level.
Also, the forecasting models suggest how big the wind field is along with how big it might become and the direction the storm will go in.
It's weather and nothing in forecasting is guaranteed.
If I were in the area of the storm/soon to be hurricane, I would have the appropriate supplies I needed to survive for a few weeks just in case of any possible scenario.
If you don't end up using your supplies in your storm preparedness, stick around 'cause there will likely be another storm after this one at some point.


He's just a troll - report and ignore....


nice center to it now with rain in the center!
it is the 30% wrong we want to figure out!
Quoting 1582. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks.  The speculation aside, the NHC tracks are the best in the business and here are their general stats from the link at the bottom of their cone.  Pretty good track record and any minor adjustments, based on model consensus or typical jogs on approach to land,, might mean a difference of 50 or 200 miles.  The point is that you need to trust the cone and take appropriate precautions if you are "in" the cone.  Don't focus on the centerline because a jog to either side of the center could make a huge difference and particularly if you live on the Carolina coast for this particular storm:

The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The circle radii defining the cones in 2014 for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins are given in the table below.

One can also examine historical tracks to determine how often the entire 5-day path of a cyclone remains completely within the area of the cone. This is a different perspective that ignores most timing errors. For example, a storm moving very slowly but in the expected direction would still be within the area of the cone, even though the track forecast error could be very large. Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time.


Quoting 1572. StormTrackerScott:



Passing rain showers some heavy moving thru the rest of today with winds from the NW in the 15 to 20mph range nothing out of the norm today.


Luck, arrogance...who knows what the hell it was...But, yes he did.
Quoting 1551. Naga5000:



Nope. You don't. Keep your incoherent blabbering about goofs and other nonsense to yourself. You're a bad troll.
I woke up to a good laugh this morning.I'll be at thd hospital today so I'll be checking in and out.Hopefully trolls won't run to rampant today.
Maybe the convective blow up in the Gulf will help inhibit dry air being sucked in on his southwest flank?
nice looking tropical storm last year we have all ugly tropical storms because high wind shear and dry air.
Lastcall.......you need to go play elsewhere. Folks, please don't feed/quote the troll. Just put him on your ignore list. Poof! And a good morning to all. Arthur looking good!
Quoting 1587. StormJunkie:

lmao. That previous ST quote was JUST before they "renamed" it 12....




I can't believe how accurate his post was.
GFS 06z Sea Level Pressure 24 hours out...


Does that blow anyone's dress up?

Quoting 1590. forecaster1:

it is the 30% wrong we want to figure out!
That 30% are storms that we have seen from time to time that present difficult challenges if steering currents are weak and they stall and/or meander; usually stuck between ridges/trofs.  Does not happen that often and you can usually also foreshadow those when the models don't know what to do and are all over the place.  This particular storm (Arthur) has good model consensus and does not fit the bill for those 30%.
Wikipedia's track for Arthur seems off...

Quoting 1596. CitikatzSouthFL:

Lastcall.......you need to go play elsewhere. Folks, please don't feed/quote the troll. Just put him on your ignore list. Poof! And a good morning to all. Arthur looking good!



thats means the same for you has well you this made a commit about him and you this feeded a troll
From the same blog...

Quoting weatherguy03:
Yes we got it Storm, waters are "sizzling", explosive development, CAT 5, we heard it all already. You getting excited yet..lol...
Quoting 1600. interstatelover7166:

Wikipedia's track for Arthur seems off...



how so?
Quoting Thunderfan:


Didn't he come back as Stormkat, or something like that as well?
I don't know. Over the years, there's been a lot of bloggers pretend to be STORMTOP. There's been a lot of bloggers accused of being STORMTOP by those that didn't like him. He has been back, I am certain. I've never thought he maintained a blog, though.
Quoting 1600. interstatelover7166:

Wikipedia's track for Arthur seems off...



In what way?

Quoting StormJunkie:


Ex-patriots relinquish their rights to criticize. Just saying.


WRONG!

1. I have paid hundreds of thousands of dollars in taxes.

2. I fathered three children that reside in America.

3. I won dozens of speech contests, many with the topic "What America Means To Me."

4. I still speak and write English very well.
NHC page says I am 132 miles NNE of coc --partial eye. Clear blue skies with a cool genital breeze and this appears to be a non event for St. Augustine. Not even any rain :(
Quoting 1600. interstatelover7166:

Wikipedia's track for Arthur seems off...




.... scratch that comment - I get it now
can we please stay on topic folks
I expect 65 or 70 mph next advisory due to the images I put.
Arthur
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

In what way?

Quoting MLTracking:

how so?



That's a good sleeping Tropical Storm.. Had 0.18" in the night.

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 12:45Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014
Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 28
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 12:02:15Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°43'N 79°03'W (28.7167N 79.05W)
B. Center Fix Location: 105 miles (169 km) to the ENE (67°) from Melbourne, FL, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the ESE (118°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 195° at 52kts (From the SSW at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the ESE (119°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 5°C (41°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,686m (12,093ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,682m (12,080ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) at 1:19
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 9°C (48°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
cntr dropsonde wind 270 / 16 kt
/ 45 nm 11:51:30Z
Actually drove through 91L while it was over South Carolina, but had no idea that there was anything gonna come out of it lol
For those saying 'the people of outer banks need to take warning'. a) Two tv stations in Raleigh and two in Charlotte have this as the top story on their websites. I can only imagine the television coverage b)Local news stations in my city have this as a top 3 story ("4th will be ruined by hurricane up and down entire east coast"). Those stations are in Indianapolis. c) national news is all over this storm also.

whether it is the 4th of july holiday, east coast biased media, or an early storm in a two year period of slow tropics....I don't know. But the media has this thing covered. I think the people up and down the east coast (especially outer banks) know there is a storm headed their way.

The storm looks much better on radar and satellite today. So far, NHC has done pretty well with this.

last items: Trolls b Trolls, Trollin aint easy, Don't hate the troll...hate the game. use the ignore feature.

MT out til later
And this from the same blog...

Quoting StormJunkie:
I can not deal with any more Dave Schwartz. What a Putz.


Those who are still paying get to critique if they want Oz. I pay for all these awesome toys NOAA and others bring us.
Quoting SCwannabee:
can we please stay on topic folks


I would not smile as often after hitting F5. The Doc's blog has always had that "off topic" edge to it.
Quoting 1613. Skyepony:

That's a good sleeping Tropical Storm.. Had 0.18" in the night.

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 12:45Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014
Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 28
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 12:02:15Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°43'N 79°03'W (28.7167N 79.05W)
B. Center Fix Location: 105 miles (169 km) to the ENE (67°) from Melbourne, FL, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the ESE (118°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 195° at 52kts (From the SSW at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the ESE (119°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 5°C (41°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,686m (12,093ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,682m (12,080ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) at 1:19
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 9°C (48°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
cntr dropsonde wind 270 / 16 kt
/ 45 nm 11:51:30Z



time two do a little clean up and get the banned hammer out on some of the trolls that are out in fun this AM and get the blog back too norml
Quoting StormJunkie:
And this from the same blog...



Those who are still paying get to critique if they want Oz. I pay for all these awesome toys NOAA and others bring us.


You're paying for a whole lot more than that, these days! The latest news from the border is that ICE is changing diapers and begging for underwear.
Taz, you are a gteat guy but please do not go after me. I have been on this blog for quite a few years and was just advising the folks to ignore him. Also just gave him a warning AND I DIDNOT quote him. How about we all relax and watch this storm and pray it stays far enough offshore so that no damage is done to property or people.
1622. Brock31
Can anyone tell me the airspeed velocity of an Unladen swallow. European to be more specific.
Quoting 1612. interstatelover7166:






That doesnt explain much.
Quoting 1621. CitikatzSouthFL:

Taz, you are a gteat guy but please do not go after me. I have been on this blog for quite a few years and was just advising the folks to ignore him. Also just gave him a warning AND I DIDNOT quote him. How about we all relax and watch this storm and pray it stays far enough offshore so that no damage is done to property or people.





thanks
Quoting 1623. JrWeathermanFL:


That doesnt explain much.

My guess is that it is slightly too east for the current position of the storm...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I can't believe how accurate his post was.
This is the reason STORMTOP is a legend at wu and always will be. And, just for the record and for those who don't know, STORMTOP was posting from New Orleans and rode out the storm there.

I'd like to nicecast Arthur away from the coast but, uh, I doubt that will happen. Add: I hope people in the Carolina's(sic) keep their eyes open.

Hope you all have a nice day!
Arthur reminds me of Gerda, 1969 with respect to formation, track, and intensity forecast. I think the storm will get more intense than originally expected, to Cat 2. Gerda shocked by reaching Cat 3 (athough that was early September).
1628. HCW

Quoting 1585. MahFL:

Oh I've been here 10 years, how time flies !
12 years for me ... That's got to be some record cause normally I am banned by now  :) Stay safe everybody


Banding seems to be getting better.
I do not watch models and handle conditions fairly well or as well as others without them. Models as always are created by people who have imbedded their own thoughts or observations into the equation. until there is a 100% model I will be here hypothesizing and learning. My angle is strength we have a pretty good handle on direction these days but even a Charlie can trick us here and there. Strength and rapid development and minimalizing loss of life that's my goal... Not to win an I told ya so battle... I always laugh how folks are supposed to "eat crow" for being wrong when taking chances is how greatness is achieved..
Quoting 1599. weathermanwannabe:


That 30% are storms that we have seen from time to time that present difficult challenges if steering currents are weak and they stall and/or meander; usually stuck between ridges/trofs.  Does not happen that often and you can usually also foreshadow those when the models don't know what to do and are all over the place.  This particular storm (Arthur) has good model consensus and does not fit the bill for those 30%.
Quoting 1610. HurricaneAndre:

I expect 65 or 70 mph next advisory due to the images I put.

I think he'll still be 60 @ the 11 O'clock this morning...65 by 5 O'clock...then perhaps a hurricane by 11 O'clock tonight...
Ok, one more...From when he started to come in to his ALL CAPS persona...And who could forget the unofficial STORMTOP NWS...I'm out y'all. Keep an eye on Arthur.

Quoting STORMTOP:
STORMTOP NWC OOO1800 HRS...

SPECIAL WEATHER HEADS UP STATEMENT FOR LOIUSIANS ,MISS, AND ALABAMA AREAS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY....ACOORDING TO THE SATELLITE LOOPS AND THE WV LOOPS KATRINA IS NOW MOVING ON A DUE WEST COURSE AS THE FIRST BANDS ARE NOT FAR FROM MIAMI...HERE IS THE WAY THINGS STACK UP..THE TROUGH THAT WAS GETTING SO MANY PEOPLE EXCITED THIS MORNING WAS A WEAK 500MB CHART THAT HAS WASHED OUT AND THE IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIROMENT PLUS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA BUILDING EASE AND WEST WILL FORCE KATRINA ON A WESTWARD PATH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOPURS BRINGING THE CENTER OF KATRINA NEARE THE MIAMI AREA..KATRINA SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE S FLA ARERA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN CONTINUE THE WEST MOVEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT EMERGESINTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO..THE GFDL TAKES THE SYSTEM TO NEW ORLEANS..YOU KNOW I DONT LIKE COMPUTERS IM JUST PUTTING THIS OUT ON THE TABLE...IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIROMENT ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID STRENGTHING BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY JUST WEST OF GRAND ISLE..I WANT TO CAUTION YOU PEOPLE ON THE MISS GULF COAST IF THE HIGH DOES NOT WEAKEN A LOT AND THE COOL FRONT STALLS THERE IS A CHANCE LANDFALL COULB AS FOR EAST AS GULPORT MISS...SO HEADS UP IN THAT AREA.....THERE IS A 57% BY THE NHC THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN...IM CALLING IT A 75% THAT KATRINA WILL BE A CAT S5 HURRICANE WITH 170MPH WINDS...I HAVE NOTICED THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND INCREASE IN SPEED AND A DEFINITE WEST HEADING ON KATRINA...THE BANDING IS BECOMING MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED AND I EXPECT KATRINA TO DROP IN PRESSURE TONIGHT AND ALSO INTESIFY INTO A HURRICANE BY THE 5 AM ADVISORY...FLA WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A WEAK CAT 1 BUT IT IS STILL DANGEROUS AND CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS...SO KEEP ABREAST OF WHATS GOING ON AND LISTEN TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVISORIES....THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE FROM STORMTOPS NWS AT 11PM......
1633. MAstu
This storm's track over the next few days has enormous implications for my company's hurricane prediction pool. If it clips Cape Hatteras, that would make it a landfalling storm. Right now it looks almost 50/50. (Canadian landfalls do not count for the purposes of the pool).
1634. HCW
From Impact Wx

Winds are forecast to be 105 mph when it

makes its closest approach to the Outer Banks. While weakening is

expected before reaching Nova Scotia, Arthur is likely to still be a

hurricane when it makes landfall in Canada.
Gorgeous weather here in PBG Fl today! I love the weather after a storm freshens and rinses everything off
....
That was the last of the recon for now. All the hurricane Hunters went home.

Quoting 1628. HCW:


12 years for me ... That's got to be some record cause normally I am banned by now  :) Stay safe everybody



Damn...I didn't even know '02 join dates existed. You really are archaic.
Quoting 1629. JrWeathermanFL:



Banding seems to be getting better.


it's really getting ventilated now. Nice out flow coming from the east side.

Quoting 1628. HCW:


12 years for me ... That's got to be some record cause normally I am banned by now  :) Stay safe everybody

13 years here - they'll have to kick me out before I leave this site behind ;) I may not talk very often, but I love this crazy place!
Can we submit suggestions to the weather channel for local on the 8s? They should be totally playing this soundtrack right now...it would be perfect!
There's my fav buoy..East of Cape Canaveral..

Who and what did STORMTOP do that people are still obsessed with him?
Quoting Autistic2:
NHC page says I am 132 miles NNE of coc --partial eye. Clear blue skies with a cool genital breeze and this appears to be a non event for St. Augustine. Not even any rain :(


D__ I mean crap what was that? Perhaps I spoke to soon? Can a warm cored tropical system produce Hail?
1644. MsZola
Quoting 1622. Brock31:

Can anyone tell me the airspeed velocity of an Unladen swallow. European to be more specific.


About 10 meters per second.
1645. HCW

Quoting 1642. washingtonian115:

Who and what did STORMTOP do that people are still obsessed with him?
I think that he is related to Storm W who was known for picking up the woman on the WU blog and driving them around FL in his mustang
Is Arthur humping the ridge?
Quoting 1642. washingtonian115:

Who and what did STORMTOP do that people are still obsessed with him?


Read the posts...He called Katrina, location, strength, etc...While it was TD 10...which was before it became TD 12. He was obnoxious; but he did get that right.
1648. ncstorm
the ensembles are to the west of the operational



Quoting 1646. presslord:

Is Arthur humping the ridge?


Please, don't you need to foot it down the road?

HC...ST had way more cooth; even in his absurdity than FW ever did.
1650. ricderr
Read the posts...He called Katrina, location, strength, etc...While it was TD 10...which was before it became TD 12. He was obnoxious; but he did get that right.

of course that's the only thing right...and a few of us also found the site he was getting his info from.......when i cut and paste....i look mahhhhhvelous

Quoting 1649. StormJunkie:



Please, don't you need to foot it down the road?


I'm pretty sure the ridge humping creates a giant foot sucking vortex...
Pssst...FlCracker...I see you hidin' in the wings! :-)
Quoting presslord:
Is Arthur humping the ridge?
That was predicted yesterday but today's prediction is, "pumping the ridge." "Humping" is so yesterday.

Closed circulation opening up again on radar. The battle between feeders and dry air continues.
Convection on the NE side of the center of Arthur's circulation. I believe previous posts from previous seasons have mentioned this is a sign of intensification.
1655. ncstorm
SC folks are cutting up..LOL..so wrong..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Who and what did STORMTOP do that people are still obsessed with him?
STORMTOP = "Blind squirrel who finds a nut."
1657. hydrus
Nova Scotia may get whacked..
1658. ricderr
Who and what did STORMTOP do that people are still obsessed with him?

you get one prediction right...and you're a hero...it doesn't matter that even the site he stole his info from didn't really use any science behind their guess....you guess right...you can be a legend too...no different yesterday than today....you can look at some here...who have made faulty predictions after predictions...and they are respected pillars of the community......it's part of the fun
1659. bwi
Doc needs to post a blog advising people about the likely situation in the outer banks Friday. Lots of people from my area are headed there for vacation. It may not affect Ocean City MD much more than swells, but the outer banks could have lots of roads flooded and closed etc. Would be stupid to drive there today, then have to turn around and evac on overcrowded roads with the weather deteriorating.
Quoting 1650. ricderr:

Read the posts...He called Katrina, location, strength, etc...While it was TD 10...which was before it became TD 12. He was obnoxious; but he did get that right.

of course that's the only thing right...and a few of us also found the site he was getting his info from.......when i cut and paste....i look mahhhhhvelous




Nonetheless...They were good times Ric.
Why is that your favorite buoy Sky?
1662. ricderr
Nonetheless...They were good times Ric.


they were....
Quoting StormJunkie:


Nonetheless...They were good times Ric.
The photos of his hurricane reconnaissance aircraft, "the broken-down biplane with manual start engine" was my favorite.
Quoting 1659. bwi:

Doc needs to post a blog advising people about the likely situation in the outer banks Friday. Lots of people from my area are headed there for vacation. It may not affect Ocean City MD much more than swells, but the outer banks could have lots of roads flooded and closed etc. Would be stupid to drive there today, then have to turn around and evac on overcrowded roads with the weather deteriorating.
My cousin was going to Virginia beach..but they easily flood down there even if it's a weak thhunderstorm.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Read the posts...He called Katrina, location, strength, etc...While it was TD 10...which was before it became TD 12. He was obnoxious; but he did get that right.


Back in 2004, I had Ivan's eventual track in the Gulf pinpointed when it was still just south of Jamaica.

I called my Dad in Pensacola and told him I was on my way (when Ivan was still 4 days away from landfall.)

His response? "There ain't no hurricane!"
Got to love OneDay's view of the events...

Quoting OneDay:
Lefty....you cannot type. Stormtop....you are an idiot.

(from a disinterested third party)


Maybe so Oz...But ST screamed it at a whole community and in spite of said community. And he's not here glorifying himself...The old farts are...Or are still despising him. lol
OMG! Stormtop!

I guess that name had to surface again.
What a good time on the blog back then.....
Link my blog!!
Quoting StormJunkie:
Got to love OneDay's view of the events...

Didn't stormtop have a faithful assistance like, "Robin" IIRC or was it his sister?
Anybody wanta come over and see my tools?!
Quoting 1657. hydrus:



Arthur has already done one donut. Models a couple days ago were suggesting a loop out in the fish Atlantic
after a week or so.
Quoting Randrewl:
OMG! Stormtop!

I guess that name had to surface again.
What a good time on the blog back then.....


The blog was great from 2005 - 2008. StormTop and JFV became infamous "trolls."
Quoting StormJunkie: Maybe so Oz...But ST screamed it at a whole community and in spite of said community. And he's not here glorifying himself...The old farts are...Or are still despising him. lol


I just remember laughing my butt off day after day.
StormTop and JFV became infamous "trolls."


I considered those guys just free entertainment while working on the blogs.
I got along just fine with them...LOL


nice looking tropical storm!
Quoting Randrewl:
StormTop and JFV became infamous "trolls."


I considered those guys just free entertainment while working on the blogs.
I got along just fine with them...LOL


I got along with them just fine, too.
1677. 900MB
Quoting 1672. CycloneOz:



The blog was great from 2005 - 2008. StormTop and JFV became infamous "trolls."


Don't forget the famous StormW breakdown. Still miss him, and missed the whole thread of the incident.
1678. ricderr
taking a break from arthur for a (when you get caught between the moon and new york city).....(sorry..got carried away by song) moment.......here's today cfsv2......a couple of comments about it......it kind of surprises me that others haven't mentioned it as the means does cross the "strong" threshold....doesn't really matter as experts state the reasoning is there's too much daily input of the recent short lived highs and it will go back to where it was last week of a moderate strength event........but what is most important...and has also trended now for almost a month...is the weakening of anomaly values in july that we are seeing.....so...not to worry just yet my fellow el nino predicting friends....the 3.4 ENSO value might have just ducked under 0.3C.....we're still on track for an el nino
Quoting hurricanes2018:


nice looking tropical storm!


The dry air incursion on the west side of the storm is very visible.
Quoting 1670. presslord:

Anybody wanta come over and see my tools?!
Something about this post is so so wrong
Quoting 900MB:


Don't forget the famous StormW breakdown. Still miss him, and missed the whole thread of the incident.


StormW was AWESOME...but he put a foot in his mouth one too many times.

Those were great days on the blog...days I'll always remember.
Quoting 1673. CycloneOz:



I just remember laughing my butt off day after day.
]

Yeah, except in '05 it was a bit of laughing at him and then "Crap, this can;t be happening...this is really bad new for a lot of folks."
Quoting 1616. NCHurricane2009:

Look what I found inside Arthur's convective burst! This tells me Arthur has found the holy grail and is drinking its warm Gulf stream waters!

(Sorry guys...but had to do it because no one else has made a King Arthur reference yet).




Quoting 1319. OracleDeAtlantis:

It looks like an eye to me ...




Way cooler than yours ...
Quoting 900MB:


Don't forget the famous StormW breakdown. Still miss him, and missed the whole thread of the incident.
Miss that as well. Witnessed most of the incident. Still don't know exactly what happened but that's okay -- water under the bridge.
1685. ricderr
duuuhhhhhhh...forgot to post the cfsv2........

Quoting StormJunkie:
]

Yeah, except in '05 it was a bit of laughing at him and then "Crap, this can;t be happening...this is really bad new for a lot of folks."


I was not laughing when Katrina spun up in the Gulf. Same for the other Cat 5 storms that year.
Quoting 1685. ricderr:

duuuhhhhhhh...forgot to post the cfsv2........




You got all choked up remembering ST...lol
Quoting 1686. CycloneOz:



I was not laughing when Katrina spun up in the Gulf. Same for the other Cat 5 storms that year.


Exactly the point...When ST was screaming TD 10 was gonna hit Grand Isle as a Cat 5...we all laughed, and were frustrated cause it seemed completely illogical...Well we all know how that played out.
Quoting 1677. 900MB:



Don't forget the famous StormW breakdown. Still miss him, and missed the whole thread of the incident.


for the longest time...you could google "stick your website where the sun don't shine" and get the whole thing ...not sure if ya still can...
Quoting 1661. BaltOCane:

Why is that your favorite buoy Sky?

Cause I hadn't had enough coffee. That wasn't even the right buoy.. That was 09, the one 20nm off Cape Canaveral. I've hung out there..fun buoy but 1010 the one 120nm east of the CAPE. When you get to that one you feel like you went somewhere & usually the waves are bigger.. The pressure is lower there today too.

Here's 41010
It may take a little while for Arthur to mix out the dry air embedded in his circulation...

Arthur is an interesting system to watch pass by. It was dark and wet here yesterday...and cool too. This morning we had a pretty sunrise and no rain yet.

Probably some pieces of the bands will make it onshore here.



1694. SCGATOR
Quoting 1643. Autistic2:



D__ I mean crap what was that? Perhaps I spoke to soon? Can a warm cored tropical system produce Hail?


St Augustine and Jax to the north will soon be getting rain even though the local weather presstitutes still continue to talk about "slight chance of a thunderstorm." The wx radar is clearly showing storms are about to come ashore. It was dry air which is what the computer models used (past tense) and the presstitutes will continue to quote the computer models long after it has started raining . And yes, thunderstorms can produce hail :-)
Good morning all, from the south shore of Long Island, NY.

Time to get back to topic people..... lol
In fact, Arthur better be in the middle of yet another loop or he's on landfall trajectory....
When Gro wakes up maybe he'll post some of his Top Secret tracks..
Quoting 1657. hydrus:

Nova Scotia may get whacked..



Kind off topic, but the corn and soy bean fields all across Central Illinois are looking ridiculously great for this time of year. The rain has been plentiful and well spread out through the calendar year this far and the humidity has been atrocious, but the corn is thriving in it. It is already 6'+ in many places with some big fat ears of corn on them stalks already.
Quoting 1684. LightningCharmer:

Miss that as well. Witnessed most of the incident. Still don't know exactly what happened but that's okay -- water under the bridge.
I know what happened.He sent me a e-mail.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I know what happened.He sent me a e-mail.
He sent me an email as well but the whole thing was bizarre. Going to let sleeping dogs lie.
I purposely did not chase Katrina, Rita, or Wilma in 2005.

The night Ivan came ashore in September 2004 was terrifying.

It was that storm that made me rethink chasing major hurricanes.

Dolly caught me unprepared (again,) but in Hurricane Ike I had equipment that might help me survive even though I was within 250 yards of a projected historically dangerous storm surge.

Had Ike not shifted its track at the last minute, my location would have received the storm surge that hit Point Bolivar.

I retired from chasing without a scratch, but only because I was never outside for long in Ivan. Had I chased one of the Cat 5s from 2005, I likely would not be here today.

I lived in the Miami area until July 31, 1992. I moved to New Mexico that day. I still count "missing Hurricane Andrew" as one of the big miracles in my life.

I am sure I would have been one of the dead in Homestead had I not left town when I did.
1701. hydrus
Quoting 1691. Skyepony:


Cause I hadn't had enough coffee. That wasn't even the right buoy.. That was 09, the one 20nm off Cape Canaveral. I've hung out there..fun buoy but 1010 the one 120nm east of the CAPE. When you get to that one you feel like you went somewhere & usually the waves are bigger.. The pressure is lower there today too.

Here's 41010


Very classic and good data. Shows the pressure drop and increase in winds as Arthur moves on by...
1705. ricderr

Arthur is an interesting system to watch pass by. It was dark and wet here yesterday...and cool too. This morning we had a pretty sunrise and no rain yet.

Probably some pieces of the bands will make it onshore here.


we got pounded here with rain yesterday....parts of el paso got a 1/4 inch........street flooding.....stalled cars as the franklin mountains drained into the north-east
Quoting 1651. presslord:



I'm pretty sure the ridge humping creates a giant foot sucking vortex...


Well, it IS Hump Day.

Greetings all from Casco Bay. Sunny, warm, getting a bit humid. In short, the weather we were praying for in February through May.
1707. Gearsts
Arthur has cough another one.
Where are you located these days Ric?
I'm still on the Treasure coast.

1710. ricderr
something tells me....stormie won't be joining the reunion anytime to soon...
Quoting 1701. hydrus:

Yep, three more donuts then landfall tomorrow night.. then loop back out for another landfall.. I could see
that happening. Forecast tracks don't handle looping behavior very well for some reason.
1712. 900MB
Quoting 1698. washingtonian115:

I know what happened.He sent me a e-mail.


As I recall he was tired of being trolled, and/or criticized and flipped out. Does that pretty much sum it up?
So, Storm W was a Scholl Troll? When it came to WU standards, he couldn't toe the line?

What a heel.

Thanks, I'll be here til Thursday, try the veal!
Ok, honestly...get all this StormTop, StormW stuff out of here. Who cares what some user said 5 years ago? There is an active storm right now, and most people would rather discuss that than gossip like little school girls. Yes this post sounds mean, but come on...we have a TC for the first time this year. (Refocus)
1715. hydrus
Quoting 1697. ILwthrfan:



Kind off topic, but the corn and soy bean fields all across Central Illinois are looking ridiculously great for this time of year. The rain has been plentiful and well spread out through the calendar year this far and the humidity has been atrocious, but the corn is thriving in it. It is already 6'+ in many places with some big fat ears of corn on them stalks already.
Yep..The corn field in my back yard looks not only plush , but huge. Weather here has been wet, but superb for summer. This weekend will be down in the low to mid 50,s. This is a rare event for the region..We have the BBQ on the list.
Amazing how many are still jealous of STORMTOP nailing that storm the way he did. I always thought, and still do think, he was psychic.

Regarding (edit for clarity) Lightning Charmer comment about "assistance" from "Robin." That was Batman. lol After the storm hit, many were concerned until STORMTOP surfaced again. We were all concerned about each other back in that day, when the active wu blogging community was small and the storms were large.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Who and what did STORMTOP do that people are still obsessed with him?
washingtonian, If you read back a ways, you'll see some STORMTOP quotes posted today by StormJunkie that explains it clearly. For the total picture, you can read blogs by Doc M and Leftyy420 in mid to late August 2005 - if the new admin hasn't deleted Leftyy's. I noticed some blogs from inactive old handles have gone missing, as in they are no longer on the list of bloggers by alphabet or location.
Quoting CycloneOz:
I lived in the Miami area until July 31, 1992. I moved to New Mexico that day. I still count "missing Hurricane Andrew" as one of the big miracles in my life.

I am sure I would have been one of the dead in Homestead had I not left town when I did.
Fateful time to leave town.
Quoting MrstormX:
Ok, honestly...get all this StormTop, StormW stuff out of here. Who cares what some user said 5 years ago? There is an active storm right now, and most people would rather discuss that than gossip like little school girls. Yes this post sounds mean, but come on...we have a TC for the first time this year. (Refocus)


Stop peeing on our little reunion! :D
1719. LargoFl
Im sure those folks up there have begun preps already.....i hope so,things will get nasty................................
What right now is keeping Arthur from looking better...
Dry Air?
Wind Shear?
Quoting 1718. CycloneOz:



Stop peeing on our little reunion! :D


It's what I do best. Party poop. :P
Quoting 1607. Autistic2:

NHC page says I am 132 miles NNE of coc --partial eye. Clear blue skies with a cool genital breeze and this appears to be a non event for St. Augustine. Not even any rain :(


Boy, am I jealous....I could really go for a nice cool genital breeze right about now...classic spell check Autistic2. Well done...keep them coming!
1723. LargoFl
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Fateful time to leave town.


No kidding. Hurricane Andrew did not spin up until 3 weeks later. There was no hint of what was to come on July 31, 1992.

I had given my boss at the television studio 4 months notice so he could replace me. He tried to keep me on board with raises, free luxury lunches and such, but I stayed the course.

On August 24th, the roof of his business got ripped off and everything was destroyed. Everyone lost their jobs.

Meanwhile, on the same day, I was employed and settled down in Albuquerque.

I remember my jaw dropping when I saw the level of destruction on the news.
Quoting 1658. ricderr:

Who and what did STORMTOP do that people are still obsessed with him?

you get one prediction right...and you're a hero...it doesn't matter that even the site he stole his info from didn't really use any science behind their guess....you guess right...you can be a legend too...no different yesterday than today....you can look at some here...who have made faulty predictions after predictions...and they are respected pillars of the community......it's part of the fun

Well put Ric..and I will tell say emphatically, you are part of the fun, cause you got a great sense of humor..
Man if we could just get a convective blowup on the western side...
1727. LargoFl
Good Luck to folks up there gee............................................... .........................................
1728. ricderr

Where are you located these days Ric?
I'm still on the Treasure coast.


not me...LOL....life took it's turn on me......went to houston to sell roofs after ike hit...and that was enough to end a bad relationship.....ended up running the branch of the company i worked for in h-town...then they offered for me to open a new branch in el paso.....there i met jessica....am dad again to a wonderfui three year old and have 5 stepchildren......so here i am stuck.....LOL....i tell everyone that i finally have beach front property...just a thousand miles away from the ocean..(come on global warming...make those seas rise).....i truly hate el paso...not the people...or the great mexican food...but it's dry...no green...all brown...no water...no fishing...if it wasn't that we get away to a little place in ruidoso...that's in the mountains of new mexico...i'd go freaking crazy
Quoting 1670. presslord:

Anybody wanta come over and see my tools?!

What would somebody do with a rusty tire iron..
1730. 900MB
Wow. I got banned for the first time ever. Don't even know what I did. Guess I'll stick to Arthur!

IT looks to me that it is moving slightly west of north
1732. LargoFl
every model i go to..same story....get those preps finished soon.............................................
Quoting CycloneOz:


Stop peeing on our little reunion! :D
Was thinking the same thing. What would be better: arguing climate change theory, arguing politics, arguing seating arrangements at the local bingo hall, etc.?
1734. ricderr
Well put Ric..and I will tell say emphatically, you are part of the fun, cause you got a great sense of humor..


thanx wolf...you're quite witty yourself upon occasion...just less vocal :-)
Quoting 1697. ILwthrfan:



Kind off topic, but the corn and soy bean fields all across Central Illinois are looking ridiculously great for this time of year. The rain has been plentiful and well spread out through the calendar year this far and the humidity has been atrocious, but the corn is thriving in it. It is already 6'+ in many places with some big fat ears of corn on them stalks already.

In my world very on topic and thanks so much for this post..
1736. LargoFl
every model says the same thing today............................................. .......................
In addition to Arthur, a nice looking tropical wave is moving off the coast of Africa.

Thanks for the info Ric. I lived in Silver City, NM for a short while and traveled to El Paso to shop a lot. They actually have stores there....but you're right...it's very brown and the mountains is where I spent my time as well.

Quoting ricderr:

Arthur is an interesting system to watch pass by. It was dark and wet here yesterday...and cool too. This morning we had a pretty sunrise and no rain yet.

Probably some pieces of the bands will make it onshore here.


we got pounded here with rain yesterday....parts of el paso got a 1/4 inch........street flooding.....stalled cars as the franklin mountains drained into the north-east


A 1/4" of rain is an afternoon tease for us. Last week we had two days with over 2" rainfalls in about 30 minutes at my location. Rain rates got up to 14" per hour for a few minutes.

But I know it doesn't take much out there to create some crazy flooding with the rapid run off.
1740. hydrus
Quoting 1716. Barefootontherocks:

Amazing how many are still jealous of STORMTOP nailing that storm the way he did. I always thought, and still do think, he was psychic.

Regarding your other comment about "assistance" from "Robin." That was Batman. lol After the storm hit, many were concerned until STORMTOP surfaced again. We were all concerned about each other back in that day, when the active wu blogging community was small and the storms were large.If you read back a ways, you'll see some STORMTOP quotes posted today by StormJunkie that explains it clearly. For the total picture, you can read blogs by Doc M and Leftyy420 in mid to late August 2005 - if the new admin hasn't deleted Leftyy's. I noticed some blogs from inactive old handles have gone missing, as in they are no longer on the list of bloggers by alphabet or location.
Greetings Foot..Many hurricanes have hit S.E.Florida and continued into Louisiana. It did not require a great deal of knowledge about tropical weather to make an accurate forecast with Katrina. Many here predicted that Katrina would be a 5, and make landfall near New Orleans.
1741. LargoFl
every model says a cat-1 by the outer banks..gee........................................ ...........
Quoting LargoFl:
every model says the same thing today............................................. .......................
Not exactly but the consensus is nearly the same; not much divergence at all.
1743. ricderr
Ok, honestly...get all this StormTop, StormW stuff out of here. Who cares what some user said 5 years ago? There is an active storm right now, and most people would rather discuss that than gossip like little school girls. Yes this post sounds mean, but come on...we have a TC for the first time this year. (Refocus)

and if i might be so bold as to ask......the five/fifteen minutes of reminiscing.....pray tell....how did we affect our good friend arthur......did we lose sight of it's coc.....did we miss a quarter hour of rapid intensification to where it's now a cat 2.....did we jeopardize someone's safety......well....except for the flying fish that are plentiful at its present location......

perspective...i just ask for perspective is all......may our little reunion...be the worst annoyance of your day


Is this organized?

Or nah?

Really can't tell here..
1745. LargoFl
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
832 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PART OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS
ARTHUR MOVES NORTHWARD...

.NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. UPDATED TO INCLUDE ALLIGATOR RIVER...PAMLICO
AND PUNGO RIVER...AND NEUSE AND BAY RIVER ZONES IN THE WATCH.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
MAINLAND DARE...BEAUFORT...MAINLAND HYDE...CRAVEN...PAMLICO...
CARTERET...OUTER BANKS DARE AND OUTER BANKS HYDE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
TYRRELL...JONES AND ONSLOW.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING ALBEMARLE AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.8N...LONGITUDE 79.0W. THIS WAS ABOUT 490 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BUXTON NC...OR ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MOREHEAD CITY NC. STORM MOTION WAS N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN TO
A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
LATE THURSDAY AND PASS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

ARTHUR WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF IMPACTS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
HEAVY RAINFALL...COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUNDS AND RIVERS AND
DANGEROUS SURF PRODUCING BEACH EROSION...HIGH SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE A THREAT.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES
FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY AROUND NOON EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

Quoting 1740. hydrus:

Greetings Foot..Many hurricanes have hit S.E.Florida and continued into Louisiana. It did not require a great deal of knowledge about tropical weather to make an accurate forecast with Katrina. Many here predicted that Katrina would be a 5, and make landfall near New Orleans.
There were people predicting Debby would be a Cat 5 with a landfall near New Orleans, if they have the same forecast for every storm it will eventually be right.
Quoting 1736. LargoFl:

every model says the same thing today............................................. .......................
About 64-80 knot winds just offshore. I think we'll see a shift west in the models, that will put further inland into North Carolina.
1748. LargoFl
Quoting 1742. LightningCharmer:

Not exactly but the consensus is nearly the same; not much divergence at all.
yes i guess either they take a strike on land or it narrowly misses going onland..those people are in for it huh...
Quoting 1732. LargoFl:

I think Arthur is going to leave about 500 coastal miles of mess... 70-90 mph grazing the shoreline..
Quoting 1652. StormJunkie:

Pssst...FlCracker...I see you hidin' in the wings! :-)

{waves at SJ} :o)
Glued to the Radar Loops. Really interesting to watch a storm life cycle this close up.

Hey SJ, Remember this one ...
"A Broken Clock is Right Twice A Day" LOL
1751. ncstorm
wow..I know the pressure must be changing in the atmosphere from Arthur..I actually plussed ric's post..
When's the next HH flight?
Quoting 1720. JrWeathermanFL:

What right now is keeping Arthur from looking better...
Dry Air?
Wind Shear?

Dry air is mostly to blame. Notice the large outflow boundary on the north side of Arthur. That's a good indication a storm is struggling with dry air.

1754. MahFL
Quoting 1731. Methurricanes:

IT looks to me that it is moving slightly west of north


On radar it looks stationary and the eye is tightening up....
Quoting 1753. Ameister12:


Dry air is mostly to blame. Notice the large outflow boundary on the north side of Arthur. That's a good indication a storm is struggling with dry air.




Figured that. But will Arthur ever start to handle it? Or will the dry air moisten??
Nothing's really happened as far as convective organization in the last day or so.
1757. LargoFl
Quoting 1747. GTstormChaserCaleb:

About 64-80 knot winds just offshore. I think we'll see a shift west in the models, that will put further inland into North Carolina.
1759. sflmike
Thanks to Arthur it's a beautiful day in South Florida!
Quoting Ameister12:

Dry air is mostly to blame. Notice the large outflow boundary on the north side of Arthur. That's a good indication a storm is struggling with dry air.

Speaking of which, is there ANY hope for Arthur?
That's not good. Why do you think that?
Lotsa folks coming outta da woodwork fer dis one!
1763. LargoFl
first time any model brought it up to a cat-2 for awhile............................................ ........
Melbourne Radar

Take a look at this.
Arthur's radar presentation have improved quite a bit since last night.
Good Morning All! Kinda Balmy? in Soo Cal this am

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Wed, 02 Jul 7:39 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Wed, 02 Jul 7:30 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
02 Jul 7:30 am PDT 73 45 37 SE 2G03 OK
Quoting 1747. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Problem is, Arthur is not moving like XTRP, he's looping his way North, and depending on the size
of the next loop, he might landfall in SC, then loop back out and re-land in NC, then loop out to sea.
1768. Patrap
1769. Patrap
Mesoscale Discussion 1252
– Concerning: SVR POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
– Issued: 19 minutes ago
Good Morning everyone. I have enjoyed reading the blog this morning, just like the good ole days. And like someone said when danger comes we look out for our friends. I think the blog is awesome this morning.
I was just wondering 2 things, When is the HH going back in? Also has anyone heard from Floodman?

sheri
Quoting 1760. interstatelover7166:

Speaking of which, is there ANY hope for Arthur?


I don't think dry air is going enough of a hindrance to keep Arthur from becoming a hurricane. In fact, I think it's strengthened a bit since last night.
1772. Patrap
RGB Loop

Quoting 1765. Ameister12:

Arthur's radar presentation have improved quite a bit since last night.

Looking more like a "Cane!" Eyewall looks like it has closed off.
Surf this morning in Indialantic was fun and welcomed.IT has been Dead Flat for 3 weeks now. Storm has moved slightly north of us and winds at the beach are out of the NW at 10-15 MPH.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eu1Fysxzhdk
Quoting hydrus:
Greetings Foot..Many hurricanes have hit S.E.Florida and continued into Louisiana. It did not require a great deal of knowledge about tropical weather to make an accurate forecast with Katrina. Many here predicted that Katrina would be a 5, and make landfall near New Orleans.
Timing-wise, prior to TD 10 reforming to be "TD12," maybe even before TD10, when it was a wave, STORMTOP beat them all, took the cake and ran with it. He stuck to his guns despite criticism and laughter. I choose to remember it that way. Thanks for the greetings. :)
1776. Patrap
1777. ricderr
wow..I know the pressure must be changing in the atmosphere from Arthur..I actually plussed ric's post..


that's cus.....deep down....you know you love me....or is it....you know you love to hate me......LOL


Rain band heading right over my grandparents mobile home park now - kinda wish I was there - probably more interesting than my current weather ;)

Quoting 1762. PensacolaDoug:

Lotsa folks coming outta da woodwork fer dis one!


No kiddin...



Radar's picking up a pretty solid swath of 50+ knot winds on the south side of the circulation.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 021455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 79.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING
PAMLICO AND EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS
EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MOVE
PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...2 TO 4 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
ARTHUR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
1782. LostnVB
Quoting 1780. JrWeathermanFL:




Looks like they scooted Arthur a little closer to the coast before he really turns.
The latest discussion from the boys in Chucktown... They're pretty ho-hum about Arthur.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1038 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

&&



.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE INTENSIFYING INTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. THE 5 AM NHC
FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE WEST SLIGHTLY PER THE
LATEST TRENDS NOTED IN THE VARIOUS 00Z MODELS...POSSIBLY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SAMPLED JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
SHIFT...THE BULK OF THE DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WHERE TROPICAL STORM
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT. PER COORDINATION WITH NHC...SHOULD THE
WESTWARD TREND CONTINUE WITH THE 12Z MODELS...THEN A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF ARTHER BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE AREA WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASING.
WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS.
WILL LIMIT POPS 20/30 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHER POPS
INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. AGAIN...ANY
SLIGHT DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

THURSDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES SHOULD BEGIN TO DEFLECT TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AS IT TRACKS OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST AS WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF ARTHUR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...WITH MANY OF THE MODELS INDICATING A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD
TRACK THAN THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF ARTHUR WHILE ITS CENTER MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME 100-120 MILES OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.
GIVEN THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF WEAKER
WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF ARTHUR...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER LAND AREAS AT THIS TIME. BREEZY WINDS AND
RAINFALL SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST AS ARTHUR
PASSES OFFSHORE AND THEN TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THERE STILL REMAINS
A POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...HIGH SURF AND SOME BEACH
EROSION ALONG THE SC COAST...ESPECIALLY IF ARTHUR MAKES A CLOSER
APPROACH.
Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes were sending
observations from Arthur during the past several hours. The data
indicate that Arthur remains with an initial intensity of 50
knots. These strong winds are currently confined to the eastern
semicircle. Although the cloud pattern on satellite is somewhat
ragged, the radar presentation is fair with numerous rainbands.

The presence of mid-level dry air is limiting the intensification in
the short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of
warm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows
the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 36 hours, and so does
the official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into
the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone is forecast to lose
tropical characteristics thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is
very similar to the consensus of the models.

Arthur is moving northward at around 6 kt. The synoptic reasoning
from the previous cycle is unchanged and Arthur will likely
accelerate to the north and northeast over the next couple days.
Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance,
the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new
NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the
coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the
forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would
require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the
area under hurricane watch.
1785. LargoFl
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL012014
1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2014

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING
PAMLICO AND EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
1786. GatorWX
Morning all. I did get up to check it earlier. Wasn't very impressed and had other things to do that were more interesting. Ok, I see things haven't much changed since I went to bed/checked earlier. It should however hit its sweet spot some time later today. I don't really want to write too much as there's nothing much to say. I agree with 55 kts, but it's most certainly not anything more. It's still trying to wrap convection over west side, convection is warming, etc. Bla bla. Anyway, imo, at some time today, it's going to find its magic pocket in the atmosphere. I don't think it'll become anything more than a cat 2 at most, but its presentation should improve regardless. I'm still thinking borderline cat 1 for OBX. Have fun!

1787. ricderr
#########PLEASE STOP WHAT YOU ARE DOING#############
##SERIOUS MOMENT##################SERIOUS MOMENT##


when we first started watching arthur exit the carolina coast....models were divided between a northeast movement...and a southern track before a northern movement....now as i saw it....it looked like it would need a rather severe push for it to be pulled southward.....didn't matter what i saw....as it moved south anyways....however...none of the early models....took it as far south as it came....what were the conditions that allowed arthur such a southward slide?
Quoting 1639. carolinabelle:


13 years here - they'll have to kick me out before I leave this site behind ;) I may not talk very often, but I love this crazy place!



You got me beat by 24 days....and like you I'm more of a 'lurker' unless something exciting is going on in my neighborhood
1789. LargoFl
1790. GatorWX
*50 kts :p

000
WTNT41 KNHC 021459
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes were sending
observations from Arthur during the past several hours. The data
indicate that Arthur remains with an initial intensity of 50
knots. These strong winds are currently confined to the eastern
semicircle. Although the cloud pattern on satellite is somewhat
ragged, the radar presentation is fair with numerous rainbands.

The presence of mid-level dry air is limiting the intensification in
the short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of
warm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows
the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 36 hours, and so does
the official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into
the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone is forecast to lose
tropical characteristics thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is
very similar to the consensus of the models.

Arthur is moving northward at around 6 kt. The synoptic reasoning
from the previous cycle is unchanged and Arthur will likely
accelerate to the north and northeast over the next couple days.
Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance,
the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new
NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the
coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the
forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would
require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the
area under hurricane watch.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtm l/114756.shtml?
inundation#contents

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 29.1N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 30.1N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 31.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 33.5N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 36.0N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 42.0N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 47.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1200Z 51.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
1792. ncstorm
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 2h

The difference between disruptive and destructive will be 30-50 miles. This storm imo will reach at least cat 2 by Friday am
Here we go, finally going to get a good band through. May be about it from this storm though for S Brevard
Hi all! I'm back from a few days vacation, looks like things got busy fast! Arthur looks a little ragged still but there's more convection near the center now then there was earlier. Looks like gradual strengthening, which is pretty much what was expected. Hopefully everyone in the watch and warning areas are paying attention.

I can't access the NRL or FNMOC websites, so this'll do.

Sure looks like the start of an eyewall.
1796. ncstorm
I'm a little confused by NHC's new storm surge product. Is it the predicted storm surge for the current event, or is it just the potential surge if it were to make landfall in that location? Because right now, it is calling for greater than 3 feet of surge in my back yard and Arthur will be passing at least 100 miles east of me... LOL

You can see the new product here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtm l/114756.shtml?%20inundation#contents
1798. csmda
Quoting 1657. hydrus:

Nova Scotia may get whacked..


Yikes! It looks like they'll get the worst part of all this :( Hope it makes a sharper turn instead.


Hopefully not this...
Quoting ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 2h

The difference between disruptive and destructive will be 30-50 miles. This storm imo will reach at least cat 2 by Friday am


Hurricane Earl of 2010 was the same.

50 miles makes a big difference when it comes to a hurricane.
1801. GatorWX
Quoting 1691. Skyepony:


Cause I hadn't had enough coffee. That wasn't even the right buoy.. That was 09, the one 20nm off Cape Canaveral. I've hung out there..fun buoy but 1010 the one 120nm east of the CAPE. When you get to that one you feel like you went somewhere & usually the waves are bigger.. The pressure is lower there today too.

Here's 41010



"Fun buoy". Had to quote that (in a quote). Fishing? What else do you do with a buoy?
1802. HCW
Quoting 1800. CycloneOz:



Hurricane Earl of 2010 was the same.

50 miles makes a big difference when it comes to a hurricane.
10 to 20 miles can make a huge difference also just ask anybody that was living in South Alabama back in 1997 when hurricane Danny hit . Dauphin Island got 42 inches of rain while Mobile saw 4 inches of rain
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Lotsa folks coming outta da woodwork fer dis one!


One week of vacation and your English goes to hell?
You can see the orientation of the trough over the Midwest here and why the Carolina's are more at risk for a landfall then the Northeast.

1805. JRRP

1806. HCW

Quoting 1803. CycloneOz:



One week of vacation and your English goes to hell?
You sure do like picking on people named Doug  :)
1807. ncstorm
TS Arthur from International Space Station



Cool spot off of Daytona Beach. Warms as you get offshore South Carolina and North Carolina.

1809. ricderr
1805. JRRP
3:20 PM GMT on July 02, 2014




3.4 region looks like it might have found its bottom
Quoting HCW:

You sure do like picking on people named Doug :)


Hey James! This is a tough one to decide on for a chase.

It's only going to get close to one location...and it's a heck of a long drive to get there.

What's worse is that a go / no-go decision has to be made within hours.

What to do, huh?
*Cough, cough*



That moisture plume in the Gulf could help to cut off that dry air slot if it gets caught up in Arthur's circulation.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Wind finally picking up here in central Fl. Looks like it could rain too. Nice to see a real storm after last years disappointing season. I think conditions are good for Arthur to get really strong Cat 2 or above. This is an interesting one....
Quoting 1805. JRRP:



The average is above .5 since May 14 it would seem.
What's all the clutter in the Gulf and Bay of Campeche? Anything to it?
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 12:45Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014
Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 28
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 12:02:15Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°43'N 79°03'W (28.7167N 79.05W)
B. Center Fix Location: 105 miles (169 km) to the ENE (67°) from Melbourne, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the ESE (118°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 195° at 52kts (From the SSW at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the ESE (119°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 5°C (41°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,686m (12,093ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,682m (12,080ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) at 1:19
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 9°C (48°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
cntr dropsonde wind 270 / 16 kt
/ 45 nm 11:51:30Z
Hi Friends, first time visiting blog this year, thanks Doc, great blog today. Great to see ya'll again. Hope all is well with everyone , and folks, be sure to keep an eye on Arthur if you plan on being on/ visiting the Carolinas and Viginia this weekend.

Bob
1818. 900MB
Obviously dry air is keeping Arthur from intensifying much so far today, but has anyone considered that Arthur has been pretty much over the same water for 2 days? Think it might be a little churned up? When it finally gets moving it will have some fresh warm water to work with, and I think that will make a big difference.

Prediction- OBX landfall w 90-95mph, then largely out to sea with a minor scrape (not direct hit) with Cape Cod.
Quoting 1811. SavannahStorm:

*Cough, cough*



That moisture plume in the Gulf could help to cut off that dry air slot if it gets caught up in Arthur's circulation.
I have a question. Why is there always dry continental air over Southeast Georgia and South Carolina when a storm is moving up the East Coast. Same thing happened with Irene. If I had to take a guess maybe something to do with the Appalachian Mountains bringing down dry downsloping winds.
1820. GatorWX
Quoting 1753. Ameister12:


Dry air is mostly to blame. Notice the large outflow boundary on the north side of Arthur. That's a good indication a storm is struggling with dry air.




True dat. Idk though. It's starting to ramp up some internally. I know convection isn't overly deep, imo, it's beginning to take on a more classic shape and structure. Last night was interesting, complete opposite.
Raining with a little thunder in Melbourne..



Quoting 1801. GatorWX:



"Fun buoy". Had to quote that (in a quote). Fishing? What else do you do with a buoy?

What happens near a buoy stays near a buoy, unless it falls in the ocean or gets caught up in a waterspout.
Another beautiful day here in St Barths, just a bit of sea haze.. .can't quite see St Kitts or even all of St Martin...no clouds...........what the...HEY!.....is that a hurricane there off FL....headed for a 4th of July party in Cape Hatteras....no really....is it Patrap's birthday? (We are counting on you buddy for all the real up to date links here! We'll eat some good French beignets here in your honor...still can't forget the photos you posted of those in NOLA a few years back!)

Our friends and colleagues who are still Insurance Adjusters must be thinking about dropping out of their local community college accounting classes to warm up the trucks , grab the ladders their, load the newest Xcel version and sit by the phone waiting for their call up! Hope this one is not dangerous but a few shingle damages, tree falls and torn gutters can get the local contractors some work as well...stay safe out there on the coast!

...now back to the beach...Where's Caribboy today...surfing?
Quoting 1820. GatorWX:



True dat. Idk though. It's starting to ramp up some internally. I know convection isn't overly deep, imo, it's beginning to take on a more classic shape and structure. Last night was interesting, complete opposite.


Wondering if the Gulf Stream has enough energy punch to help Arthur expand and create it's own wetter environment to defeat that dry pocket?
With the aid of that blowup in the GOM, it seems like the driest air has been cut off from the circulation, whereas before it was getting wrapped around the east side and inwards. If I was Arthur, I'd try to ramp things up while the dry air is boxed out like this.


Next recon up in the air.
Dvorak is starting to show Arthur recovering..2014JUL02 151500 3.0 998.2 45.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -42.46 -45.85 CRVBND N/A N/A 29.13 79.10 FCST GOES13 34.2

1515Z
Tscore is 3, ↑ from 2.9 an hour ago..
998.2mb
45kts
Allt he weakening flags are off
Central Region Cloudtops cooling
29.13N 79.10W
Quoting 1818. 900MB:

Obviously dry air is keeping Arthur from intensifying much so far today, but has anyone considered that Arthur has been pretty much over the same water for 2 days? Think it might be a little churned up? When it finally gets moving it will have some fresh warm water to work with, and I think that will make a big difference.

Prediction- OBX landfall w 90-95mph, then largely out to sea with a minor scrape (not direct hit) with Cape Cod.
Actually the warm water under Arthur moves North-Northeast about 100 miles a day and is replaced by warm water from the South, so Arthur has a constant fresh supply of warm water to churn up. Sitting still and waiting for water deliveries is a good strategy for a tropical storm in that location.
1828. LargoFl
1829. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

COASTAL HAZARDS...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR OFF THE FLORIDA COAST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...REMAINING OFFSHORE BUT STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE.
ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY AND THUS THE
ULTIMATE IMPACTS ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...HIGH SURF IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ALONG WITH SOME BEACH EROSION.

1830. dabirds
Quoting 1697. ILwthrfan:



Kind off topic, but the corn and soy bean fields all across Central Illinois are looking ridiculously great for this time of year. The rain has been plentiful and well spread out through the calendar year this far and the humidity has been atrocious, but the corn is thriving in it. It is already 6'+ in many places with some big fat ears of corn on them stalks already.
No ears to your SW yet, but most all is tasseling now, so not long. Some beans getting to knee high, most are over ankle at least. Liking today? Had 70 at 1:30 CDT w/ a 56 dew pt. 50s tonight and two following. Arthur can sit out there and pull down Canadian air as long he likes, will be nice enjoying a 4th w/out humid, 90+, dead air! Hope he stays out far enough to not ruin anybody's holiday!