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MATMO SLOWLY INTENSIFIES

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:55 PM GMT on July 20, 2014

TYPHOON MATMO HEADS FOR TAIWAN / ATLANTIC STIRRING

(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)


Typhoon MATMO is located about 650 NM SSE of Taipei and is now heading NNW at 12Kts. Although convection has increased some since yesterday (with a fairly strong convective burst over the last 2 hours), wind shear of nearly 20 Kts has continued to inhibit major intensification over the last 24hrs. OTH, outflow appears to have improved some, though remains somewhat restricted in the NE semi-circle. Latest intensity estimates (Dvorak approaching T-5) support 75Kt sustained winds.



Fig 1: Enhanced IR image of Typhoon MATMO. Despite major convective burst during the last few hours, there is no indication that MATMO is intensifying 'rapidly'.

With very warm SST’s ahead and lowering of wind shear to near 10 Kts expected during the next 24-72 hrs., MATMO should intensify to near CAT 3 intensity just prior to reaching the Taiwan coast at around 09Z Wed.



Fig 2: There has been very little change in track or intensity forecasts for MATMO since yesterday, with landfall along the east coast of Taiwan expected WED at near CAT 3 intensity.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC

Although a broad area of Low pressure has formed near 35W, none of the global models is forecasting cyclone formation. In general, there has not been any significant change in environmental conditions across the tropical Atlantic since yesterday, however, the general ‘trend’ towards a more conducive environment for cyclone formation during the next 10 days continues.

The next complete update will be Monday afternoon.

Steve Gregory

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Steve, West Pac is having another active season..
Thanks for the Update Mr. Gregory.
Is WU (Classic) having issues today????
West Pac has been active thus far. Hopefully shear continues to persist with this system.

Thanks Dr. Gregory !
thank goodness for a new blog..

Hi Steve,

I dont know if you consider the CMC a global model but it does develop the CV wave..of course it is the famous overzealous CMC..





Thanks Dr. Gregory !
Thanks for the late night (for me) blog post Dr. Gregory!
Quoting 5. ncstorm:

thank goodness for a new blog..

Hi Steve,

I dont know if you consider the CMC a global model but it does develop the CV wave..of course it is the famous overzealous CMC..




I think the GEM may be on to something.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, has changed little during the past few hours. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
Thanks Dr. Gregory and Good evening everyone!

I see we now have an official area of interest to watch out in the Atlantic Basin. This area of an interest comes in the form of a broad area of low pressure along a tropical wave in the central Atlantic. This system shows signs of modest spin and, though limited, has been producing moderate convection with the support of the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). Though it appears that it is slowly organizing, and may briefly attempt tropical cyclone genesis, it has limited time to do so.

The area directly to the north and west is made up of the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) and dry, sinking air from the colder waters of the northeastern Atlantic. In addition, over the next 48 hours shear is predicted to increase slightly over the system, and sea surface temperatures will begin to decrease as the system continues on it's west-northwestward heading. These three inhibiting factors that will begin to impinge on the low will likely cause a quick demise to whatever has became of it by that time. Overall, though it is notably the strongest tropical wave of the season thus far, I'd say odds of development at the current time are at the "low" threshold of about 10%. In agreement with the National Hurricane Center.



NAVGEM and GEM say it will survive past 48 hours, we will see.
Quoting 10. TylerStanfield:

Thanks Dr. Gregory and Good evening everyone!

I see we now have an official area of interest to watch out in the Atlantic Basin. This area of an interest comes in the form of a broad area of low pressure along a tropical wave in the central Atlantic. This system shows signs of modest spin and, though limited, has been producing moderate convection with the support of the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone). Though it appears that it is slowly organizing, and may briefly attempt tropical cyclone genesis, it has limited time to do so.

The area directly to the north and west is made up of the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) and dry, sinking air from the colder waters of the northeastern Atlantic. In addition, over the next 48 hours shear is predicted to increase slightly over the system, and sea surface temperatures will begin to decrease as the system continues on it's west-northwestward heading. These three inhibiting factors that will begin to impinge on the low which will likely cause a quick demise to whatever has became of it by that time. Overall, though it is notably the strongest tropical wave of the season thus far, I'd say odds of development at the current time are at the "low" threshold of about 10%. In agreement with the National Hurricane Center.




Thank Goodness your back Tyler.
hmmm july 30th.............................................. ............................
perhaps the northeast may want to watch and see if this verifies.....................................
15. DDR
Good evening
Plenty of rain in these parts,10.4 inches of rain in North Trinidad the past 3 days,15.6inches for July so far.
I hate when I wake up and there is a new blog. I think I slept through the entire night. But thanks anyway for the update.
Quoting 14. LargoFl:

perhaps the northeast may want to watch and see if this verifies.....................................


Chances of this verifying are slim, but non zero.
Quoting 14. LargoFl:

perhaps the northeast may want to watch and see if this verifies.....................................


NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
Quoting 17. TheDawnAwakening:



Chances of this verifying are slim, but non zero.
yes i agree,would just be something to watch,wait and see in the coming week to 10 days.
The Western Pacific remains active as we currently have Typhoon Matmo (Henry) and two other invests.

Evening all. Lots of drippy overcast skies here today - quite unusual wx for 20 July....



I notice a little yellow x on the TWO... So 8 p.m. was the time.... And as expected low chances. If this thing survives to become 92L [still nothing up at the Navy site so far] the Leewards may get their much needed rain. However, how it gets through the next 24 hours is the key.
ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN, GULF OF MEXICO
Unlike in the West Pacific, where Mother Nature seemingly gives nearly every thunderstorm cluster the green light, it's quiet over the Atlantic. Been that way for a while. You couldn't pay a group of thunderstorms to last longer than 6 hours there. One of the factors that continues to fractionally tilt the odds of tropical development toward the West Pacific (and not to the Atlantic) is our old friend, the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation). Commonly thought of -in a very rough sense- as an atmospheric wave that slowly rolls around the tropics, encouraging (but not convincing) air to very gently rise and sink along the way, MJO can enhance thunderstorm activity in its ascending branch (and likewise suppress it on its downward push). The asymmetry in thunderstorm activity between the hyper Pacific and the dull Atlantic is consistent with the phase of the (albeit weak) MJO signal we've detected for weeks.
Of course there are lots of other ingredients in play, but it will be interesting to see what happens when (or if) MJO makes a decisive move eastward. Stay tuned.
Of course as I describe the quiescent conditions of the tropical Atlantic, the hurricane center decides to give a fledgling swirly over the mid-Atlantic Ocean a 10% chance of developing in the next 5 days. It's unlikely this thing gets out of the tropical Atlantic alive, with overall conditions not suited for development. Latest GFS and ECMWF model runs from 12z today dissipate it
Quoting 13. LargoFl:

hmmm july 30th.............................................. ............................

Alex 2004 repeat? (in terms of almost the same date)
lol CMC what are you doing.
Quoting 8. Climate175:

I think the GEM may be on to something.

Hmmm...looks like an out-to-sea-fest to me.
Quoting 5. ncstorm:

thank goodness for a new blog..

Hi Steve,

I dont know if you consider the CMC a global model but it does develop the CV wave..of course it is the famous overzealous CMC..






Have we ever counted how many storms the CMC develops over the course of the season? Every year is an active year! Dust? Lack of instability? High Shear? Doesn't matter, CMC.

:)
Quoting 29. Naga5000:



Have we ever counted how many storms the CMC develops over the course of the season? Every year is an active year! Dust? Lack of instability? High Shear? Doesn't matter, CMC.

:)


might I refer you to the previous blog when I posted the model run then...



Thanks for the update Steve!

Some rainfall totals on Guam from 96W passing by today. 6hrs 24hrs
Windward Hills Rain Gage near Talofofo, Guam 07/21 10:00 GST 1.16 2.59
Mount Chachao Rain Gage near Piti, Guam 07/21 10:00 GST 2.04 4.38
Dededo Rain Gage at Dededo, Guam 07/21 10:30 GST 0.91 4.73

Looks like 2" to almost 5" the last 24 hours
Quoting 27. CybrTeddy:

lol CMC what are you doing.



Its giving TWC something to hype..
Just for reference. This is how the vorticity stacks up with satellite imagery.

Thanks for the post Dr. Gregory! Just got back, and I see we have something brewing in the Atlantic (possibly).
Quoting 33. TylerStanfield:

Just for reference. This is how the vorticity stacks up with satellite imagery.


They give it 10% chance, but looking at the future shear I give it 90% chance of POOF. However, we sometimes do see swirls regenerate.
Quoting 27. CybrTeddy:

lol CMC what are you doing.



it's usual dose of pharmaceuticals!
Sorry I got confuse it was not 91L It is 91E I was asking about. I am not sure how are going to be the conditions for this system, but I hope we see a hurricane there. The Epac have been failing to produce good storms since Cristina.
With the dry air in the MDR still not much chance for anything to develop.


But there may be hope in a week or 10 days.
. One to watch....
Quoting 5. ncstorm:

thank goodness for a new blog..

Hi Steve,

I dont know if you consider the CMC a global model but it does develop the CV wave..of course it is the famous overzealous CMC..






The CMC is a global model, it isn't a tropical model though ;)
How Many people on here right now are using the Classic Site to view the blog?
Quiet through the end of the month. Let's see what August has to offer.
Quoting PedleyCA:
How Many people on here right now are using the Classic Site to view the blog?

I'm on classic.
The site is having a couple issues I think.
I trust they clear it up soon !
These waves are rolling and rolling oh, it's only a matter of time oh.... only a matter of time.
Classic is okay for me, but I don't display all the images people post.
Quoting Climate175:

Post 42.
If that verifies, everyone here will have an Origami or something…….
I went away for a few hours and when I came back nothing would load right, but my phone(VOIP) was working and it hasn't got much better. Even the Nu site is slow and erratic. Wish they would make up their mind and just play nice with us.
Quoting 43. PedleyCA:

How Many people on here right now are using the Classic Site to view the blog?


I stopped using it after the tech team got the bugs on the new site worked out. However, I'm still scared of going back to my normal 200 comments per page since the new WU came out and crashed every time I tried.
Quoting 43. PedleyCA:

How Many people on here right now are using the Classic Site to view the blog?


I got moved to the Beta in my sleep a few months ago... I don't dare revert to Classic: who knows
what would happen. I have about 20 minges about the new code, mostly pertaining to cell use: number
one being everybody re-posts everybody's images when they quote them (you have to take the trouble to delete the html to avoid doing so) because it takes 10X longer to load the same image 10 times with the new quote code.
THE tropical wave got a good spin to it with some t.storms and rain with it.
site is fine, if yer using IE in any wu format, itsa dinosaur.
Quoting 50. Astrometeor:



I stopped using it after the tech team got the bugs on the new site worked out. However, I'm still scared of going back to my normal 200 comments per page since the new WU came out and crashed every time I tried.

Be kinda hard to test that right now. I changed the page count to zero and the site loaded completely so I changed it back to 50. See how long that lasts. I am not on a slow connection either.
57. SLU
Quoting 55. Patrap:

site is fine, if yer using IE in any wu format, itsa dinosaur.


What's IE(sic), I don't use that. How's yer Shoulder today?
Quoting Patrap:
site is fine, if yer using IE in any wu format, itsa dinosaur.

Actually, all of the Internet is troublesome for me right now.
It must be something wrong up my end.
Dread, eh ?

So I'll see you guys tomorrow…..
Quoting 58. PedleyCA:



What's IE(sic), I don't use that. How's yer Shoulder today?


Hey Pedley, still attached,..cant take it out the block sling till Aug 12th,nor raise arm, but can be out of it to sleep..

Polar Vortex coming again.
These outbreaks are getting interesting for mid-summer.
Quoting 51. Climate175:



Not polar vortex just an ull!!
If I'm on my phone or computer new site works great, but when I'm on my iPad I have to use the classic version..
Quoting 64. Camille33:


Not polar vortex just an ull!!
Whatever it is, it's bringing down cold air.
At least I it will provide nice cool Sept/Oct like mornings.


BIGGG Nao block coming going to bring warmer waters near africa and weaker azoras high more activity in august!
Quoting 43. PedleyCA:

How Many people on here right now are using the Classic Site to view the blog?



I use classic. The new site is awful.
I have no issues with the new site..

I guess tomorrow we will hear about who has issues with NOAA..
Quoting Patrap:


Hey Pedley, still attached,..cant take it out the block sling till Aug 12th,nor raise arm, but can be out of it to sleep..



You actually sleep?

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Lindy
I haven't been able to get on. Everything is locking up. I keep getting script messages. Google Chrome is worse. I have to go back to Firefox. This site is really beginning to be a pain. I don't have trouble on any other site at all.

Although I did have the same problem with my first PC




Quoting PedleyCA:
How Many people on here right now are using the Classic Site to view the blog?


Here at home on my own computer I have to use Classic but at work I can use the new site. Oh, and if I use the step daughter's Mac here at the house I can use the new version.
Quoting 74. Grothar:

I haven't been able to get on. Everything is locking up. I keep getting script messages. Google Chrome is worse. I have to go back to Firefox. This site is really beginning to be a pain. I don't have trouble on any other site at all.

Although I did have the same problem with my first PC




I've thought about buying a tablet just for WU. Using it for nothing else, so I don't have to wonder about a million things that might be causing my WU problems on my laptop and Droid.
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


You actually sleep?

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Lindy


Pat!!

I am so sorry. I misread that previous comment and thought it was someone else!! My apologies to you!
Hi.
Quoting 39. Climate175:

. One to watch....


Looks big



It looks a little better than earlier.

Quoting 76. redwagon:



I've thought about buying a tablet just for WU. Using it for nothing else, so I don't have to wonder about a million things that might be causing my WU problems on my laptop and Droid.


Not a bad idea. But there is no reason the problems on this site have lasted so long. Not everyone can afford the latest versions of everything. When this many people have complained for so long, there is a problem.
Quoting 79. Grothar:



Looks big




It's up to you but Blob Alert this week ya think? Certain conditions must be met to be a blob.
Quoting 82. Climate175:

It's up to you but Blob Alert this week ya think? Certain conditions must be met to be a blob.


I'll definitely be checking my sources. If you call "blob" too often one can lose their credibility.
Matmo never did get an eye, but there sure is a lot of convection with that.


Blob!

Or "X" is the new blob
Quoting 85. leofarnsworth:


Blob!


Who do you think you are, Warren Beatty?
Quoting 83. Grothar:



I'll definitely be checking my sources. If you call "blob" too often one can lose their credibility.


Don't worry Gro, you've already lost your credibility. Nothing to worry about now.

/sarcasm

Quoting 88. Grothar:



Who do you think you are, Warren Beatty?
lol
Quoting 89. Astrometeor:



Don't worry Gro, you've already lost your credibility. Nothing to worry about now.

/sarcasm


I'll get you good in chat one night!!!!
Quoting 90. leofarnsworth:


lol


I don't think anyone would get that but us. I have one of those memories.
Quoting 87. Grothar:




I hope those N.Korean weather people are predicting this to possibly hit them. Hate to see that
creepy little FAT dude go off on them if they don't and it shows up there.
Quoting 78. Thrawst:

Hi.

No Kevin it's 11pm, go to bed.
Quoting 93. Grothar:


Cariboy might finally get its rain if this wave is not torn apart.
97. JRRP
Quoting 91. Grothar:



I'll get you good in chat one night!!!!


Wanna try right now, or too scared? :p

Chat
Quoting 95. TropicalAnalystwx13:


No Kevin it's 11pm, go to bed.


It's 10 here.

What do you think about Matmo, Cody? Thing don't look too good, neither does your original forecast for it.
Quoting 93. Grothar:

Proving again anything splashing down at or under 10o winds up being a low-riding long-tracker.

Now that big one about to jump off may clear out SAL so impressively that successive waves can sling-shot across the ATL if they nurse along the umbilical of the ITCZ.
Wow this wave is looking really good!
Quoting 95. TropicalAnalystwx13:


No Kevin it's 11pm, go to bed.

Trolololo

104. SLU
Quoting 99. Astrometeor:



It's 10 here.

What do you think about Matmo, Cody? Thing don't look too good, neither does your original forecast for it.
Its only 9::32 here, the party is about to start :P
106. JLPR2
Quoting 104. SLU:





Decent winds, no sign of a defined LLC. Well, at least it's something to look at in the ATL besides SAL.
Quoting 104. SLU:



A noticeable turning for sure. Though, not closed nor well-defined, but considering the small window of opportunity the system does have, the quicker it can establish a circulation of some sort the better off it will be when trying to organize. But, this ASCAT pass could give reason for the NHC to bump up the chance of development to 20% and perhaps classify it as an invest.
Wave is looking pretty good right now and is keeping good sustained convection.
109. jpsb
Quoting 61. Climate175:

Polar Vortex coming again.


I normally plant the fall garden on 15 Sept, this year I will plant 15 Aug. It is going to be a very cold winter here in se Texas.


... does look like it is starting to rumble ... ok a little :/
111. SLU
Quoting 107. TylerStanfield:


A noticeable turning for sure. Though, not closed nor well-defined, but considering the small window of opportunity the system does have, the quicker it can establish a circulation of some sort the better off it will be when trying to organize. But, this ASCAT pass could give reason for the NHC to bump up the chance of development to 20% and perhaps classify it as an invest.


Should have been classified more than 12hrs ago.
Quoting 69. Camille33:



BIGGG Nao block coming going to bring warmer waters near africa and weaker azoras high more activity in august!



This should protect the U.S from any tropical systems for the time being
Quoting 112. chrisdscane:




This should protect the U.S from any tropical systems for the time being


Depends on if they come from the east. 500 mb troughing doesn't do much to systems that manage to form in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless, it's a moot point right now because there's unlikely to be any development during the 240 hour timeframe.
Quoting 99. Astrometeor:



It's 10 here.

What do you think about Matmo, Cody? Thing don't look too good, neither does your original forecast for it.

Eh, I'm not ready to call bust yet. In fact, I'd argue Matmo is intensifying this evening. The convective blob™ that we saw earlier does not look nearly as oblong , and a spiral band to the south of the center is becoming very prominent. Outflow is starting to expand to the north, indicating lowering shear. A mid-level eye...displaced just south of the low-level circulation...was visible on microwave imagery around 0z.
This shows a more favorable pattern for United States tropical cyclones for ASO.



Maybe not the most favorable configuration, but I'd say close to average.
Quoting 114. KoritheMan:



Depends on if they come from the east. 500 mb troughing doesn't do much to systems that manage to form in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless, it's a moot point right now because there's unlikely to be any development during the 240 hour timeframe.

You are the lucky contestant! Come on down!
Quoting 117. TylerStanfield:


You are the lucky contestant! Come on down!


I gotta at least do the dishes first, if I decide to show up at all. :)
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
816 PM EDT sun Jul 20 2014

Near term [through tonight]...
afternoon/early evening convection is winding down, similar to
last evening. Therefore, have gone ahead and lowered pops for
most of the forecast area through 06z.

Upper trough remains in place just west of the forecast area.
With the associated deep west to southwesterly flow and plenty of
moisture (pwat near 2 inches), conditions once again favor
shower
and thunderstorm development off the Florida Panhandle after 06z,
with the activity pushing onshore by sunrise.
Bulk of available
cam guidance supports this scenario, so have bumped up pops over
the Panhandle and adjacent coastal waters after 06z.

&&

Aviation...
[through 00z tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail to start the
night, but some low ceilings are expected to develop after
midnight with MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop close to dawn
near ecp and spread eastward through the day, with tlh and vld
having a higher probability of thunderstorms than dhn and aby
later in the day.

&&

Prev discussion [303 PM edt]...

Short term [monday through Tuesday night]...

The upper level trough will narrow and deepen over the southeast
Continental U.S. With a low closing off by Monday afternoon over Alabama.
This feature will slowly drift southwestward through the short term
period. Deep layer moisture and onshore flow along with the
added instability of daytime heating will keep pops in the good to
likely category for most of the forecast area each afternoon.
Max temps will
range from around 90 to the lower 90s. Overnight lows should
remain generally in the lower 70s at most locations, except for
mid to a few upper 70s near the immediate coast.
Long term [wednesday through sunday]...

The mid/upper level trough will persist across the local region
through the extended period. The trough will be wedged between the
Bermuda ridge and strong ridging centered over the Desert Southwest.

Temperatures along with rain chances are expected to be at or above
climo each day.
A whopping .13" for us here in beautiful 89406!

We usually get good and dry-slotted in weather like this, so I had a couple of full sheets of Ondura on the shop roof, trying to lay everything straight. Stepped away to bbq lunch, I'm pulling the wings (off the grill, not off flies) when this crazy wind front hits. I get the wings into the house, run back to grab Kiddo and watch her get nearly... well, Ondura isn't going to decapitate much of anything. Too soft and brittle. Besides, she dodged. We got the other panel down more or less safely, battened things down, ate lunch, and housemate and I said... "Well, not placing posts, not doing roofing, might as well relax." He took off to hang out somewhere, and Kiddo and I just slacked.

I spent a lovely half hour (it actually rained for 3 or so hours) stretched out on my bed, Gwen Kitty curled by my armpit, both of us listening to the little friends of Thor tapdancing on the roof in time to His hammer-beats. She's pretty young, less than a year probably, I think it was her first Real Rain.

The nice thing about off-season rain in a dry land? Nobody complains. Everyone had these big wet grins on their faces.
I wonder when 92l will be designated.
Quoting 122. HurricaneAndre:

I wonder when 92l will be designated.


Who cares? It's probably not gonna develop anyway, lol.
Quoting 123. KoritheMan:



Who cares? It's probably not gonna develop anyway, lol.


Kori. Ruining young weather geeks' dreams since 2007.
"Bring it honey!"

Quoting 124. Astrometeor:



Kori. Ruining young weather geeks' dreams since 2007.


Hey, I used to be the same way. I'm qualified.
Matmo...
Quoting 126. KoritheMan:



Hey, I used to be the same way. I'm qualified.

How much of Gustav and Isaac did you get?
Matmo on TRMM. Click pic for quicktime movie.

Quoting 128. opal92nwf:


How much of Gustav and Isaac did you get?


The BR airport clocked a wind gust of 91 mph. My location (Prairieville) and Baton Rouge were about the same distance from the center of Gustav as it tracked northwest, but Baton Rouge is a little farther away from where I live (meaning Gustav was stronger at my location), so I think it's very possible wind gusts approached 105 to 110 mph in isolated spots. I want a storm like that again, but preferably away from home so I can chase it and come back to electricity. Gustav's heat was not fun, lol.

Isaac was similar to Gustav except a little weaker. I was very impressed when I saw sustained winds of 58 mph being reported in Baton Rouge with a marginal Category 1. That's about the same as the sustained winds Gustav produced. Gusts were smaller, but Isaac was damn impressive for a Category 1. I imagine it's because of the steep pressure fall that occurred before landfall.
131. JRRP
i don't think that this will live for much

out for now
How I spend Sunday night, living the dream...

Quoting 130. KoritheMan:



The BR airport clocked a wind gust of 91 mph. My location (Prairieville) and Baton Rouge were about the same distance from the center of Gustav as it tracked northwest, but Baton Rouge is a little farther away from where I live (meaning Gustav was stronger at my location), so I think it's very possible wind gusts approached 105 to 110 mph in isolated spots. I want a storm like that again, but preferably away from home so I can chase it and come back to electricity. Gustav's heat was not fun, lol.

Isaac was similar to Gustav except a little weaker. I was very impressed when I saw sustained winds of 58 mph being reported in Baton Rouge with a marginal Category 1. That's about the same as the sustained winds Gustav produced. Gusts were smaller, but Isaac was damn impressive for a Category 1. I imagine it's because of the steep pressure fall that occurred before landfall.

Fun stuff.. That's a good wind. You guys and farther west have been stealing them all though! The most I've seen in the past 7 years is what I estimate to be solid tropical storm conditions for an albeit brief time in 2009 when Claudette's partial eyewall came over. Gave me a first taste of what cyclone winds are like, and left me very eager/interested to experience/analyze a full blown storm.
Quoting 133. opal92nwf:


Fun stuff.. That's a good wind. You guys and farther west have been stealing them all though! The most I've seen in the past 7 years is what I estimate to be solid tropical storm conditions for an albeit brief time in 2009 when Claudette's partial eyewall came over. Gave me a first taste of what cyclone winds are like, and left me very eager/interested to experience/analyze a full blown storm.


Hopefully you get it.
135. JRRP
mmmmmmmm 92L ??
Goodnight everyone.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
238 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014


THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE FORECAST FOR
LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC.
GFS RUNS BEFORE 20/00Z HAS DEVELOPED A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVED IT
NW TOWARD THE NE CORNER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS WED.
THIS WAS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS
IDEA...BUT THE LATEST 00Z RUN DEVELOPS ELONGATED LOW PRES AT THE
INTERSECTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...ALBEIT
FROM DIFFERENT ORIGINS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND BUILDS WINDS TO 25
KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS WED.
THE 0030 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR
THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. THE 00Z GFS IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE ASCAT AS
IS THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW PRES SYSTEM
HERE INITIALLY. THE ECMWF CAPS WINDS AT 20 KT AND NEVER ALLOWS
SEAS TO BUILD OVER 7 FT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS
COMING IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE UKMET IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS BY PROPAGATING A STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE GFS SOLUTION
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND THE CHANGE IN THE UKMET
FORECAST TO SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
PRIMARILY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER WINDS
SEEN IN THE ASCAT PASS COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT THE GFS WAS
OTHERWISE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.
Good Morning!

Wave in central ATL still spinning westward ..... as we are getting into the last week of July.
Things should start getting more interesting as we get into the heart of the hurricane season, in August!

Frontal zone still hanging out along the northern Gulf Coast.
wish i can access the nhc website
From the San Juan NWS discussion this morning. For the first time since I have been in WU I am wishcasting something,yeah bring it on!!.

TROPICAL WAVE WITH A LOW CENTERED 11N/38W CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN
ITCZ AND MOVING W 10 KT. BOTH 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ACCELERATE IT
WITHIN 48-72 HOURS TO ABOUT 17 KT TOWARDS WNW SO THAT IT WOULD
PASS OVER LOCAL AREA VERY LATE ON THU. GFS ALSO KEEPS IT A
RELATIVELY STRONG WAVE AND EVEN HAS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER ITS TOP. WHILE DEVELOPMENT INTO A STORM IS NOT EXPECTED THE
POTENTIAL CONVERGENT/DIVERGENT COUPLET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AS THE GFS INDICATES WARRANTS CAREFUL
MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z GFS IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM ITS EARLIER RUNS. THIS PAST SAT IT WAS
EXPECTING THE WAVE TO PASS BY ON THIS COMING SAT AND HIGHLY
SHEARED. EVEN THE 12Z AND 18Z RUNS FROM YESTERDAY INDICATED A FRI
ARRIVAL...AND WITH NOT NEARLY THIS MUCH PRECIPITABLE WATER OR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS
TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SINCE THE GFS HAS NOT HANDLED IT
WELL SO FAR. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN
CHANCE CATEGORY PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TIMING
AND THE QUESTIONABLE STRENGTH.
First Morning Satellite Pics.
00z GEM takes this Pouch all the way to the Northern Antilles and then strengthens it while moving into more advantageous conditions, it is a possible scenario, we will see.
getting that time of yr
I say it is quite possible we get an Invest out this soon.
gfs keeps it as a wave ending up south of cuba canadian develops it in the s. bahamas
Quoting 145. islander101010:

gfs keeps it as a wave ending up south of cuba canadian develops it in the s. bahamas
We will see how it does. Die out or sustain itself, it have been sustaining good convection all night.
Quoting islander101010:
gfs keeps it as a wave ending up south of cuba canadian develops it in the s. bahamas


It looks like the GFS takes it through the Leeward Islands up and over P.R. and then it gets pulled up towards Bermuda around the Atlantic High.

I'll have to check a different run. The run I looked at it's pretty hard to see the Low because its so weak.
do we have invest yet!!! yes or noi!
Back up to 84 hours and the disturbance is moving through the Leeward Islands.



If you look you can see the disturbance passing just east of Puerto Rico moving north in this image at 99 hours.



At 123 hours - its the blob of moisture north of Puerto Rico moving north around the Atlantic High.
Quoting 148. hurricanes2018:

do we have invest yet!!! yes or noi!
No, maybe we might get one soon.
151. FOREX
Quoting 148. hurricanes2018:

do we have invest yet!!! yes or noi!


Noi.
Hopefully something of this wave survives to the eastern Caribbean, as we've heard from several bloggers in that region they badly need the rain. You can see the path of the wave pretty easily on the 6z GFS precip map. It's a very small system though, you'll have to be very close to the center of the wave to get anything.



CMC-

Good Morning all..work this morning..will be back later..

485

WTNT80 EGRR 210600



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.07.2014



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 11.0N 39.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 21.07.2014 11.4N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.07.2014 12.4N 42.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.07.2014 13.1N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.07.2014 13.6N 48.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.07.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
154. beell
dry air will kill this tropical wave in the next 48 hours!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1200 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become
a little better organized over the past several hours. However, any
additional development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur over the next couple of days while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1200 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become
a little better organized over the past several hours. However, any
additional development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur over the next couple of days while it moves toward the west or
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although convective activity
remains limited, some slow development of this system is still
possible during the next few days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the coast
of Mexico later this week. Some development of this system is
possible by this weekend as it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

moving west
We have 92L.

92L INVEST 140721 0600 11.4N 39.8W ATL 25 1009
We now have Invest 92L, spaghetti model tracks will be coming soon.
Quoting 162. Tropicsweatherpr:

We have 92L.

92L INVEST 140721 0600 11.4N 39.8W ATL 25 1009


thanks for telling us..i am happy now!!
waiting for invest 92L TO BE ADD to the water temp map!!
WOW !

An Invest in the Atlantic.
How very Exciting.
Long time no see one of them.

Whatever can it mean ????
92 unusually well developed is there any wind acc/ with it?


BY looking at this picture u see a nice spin with some t.storms next to the center of low!
170. MahFL
Looks like a closed low to me.

Quoting LargoFl:


This pattern reminds me of a couple years ago when we had a bunch of storms threaten Bermuda.

If this pattern holds up, it might be hard to get a system to make landfall in the U.S. (when approaching from the Atlantic/CV)

We'll need to get a system down in the Caribbean or GOM.
Quoting 167. pottery:

WOW !

An Invest in the Atlantic.
How very Exciting.
Long time no see one of them.

Whatever can it mean ????
Good morning..I believe it means the Atlantic will be more active than some of the experts expected.
Quoting 170. MahFL:

Looks like a closed low to me.


Has a nice spin.
The initial SHIPS run for 92L takes it to near hurricane strength in 4-5 days. Don't be fooled though, as I've said before, SHIPS does this with basically every invest in the deep tropics. Development odds remain slim.
Quoting 167. pottery:
WOW !

An Invest in the Atlantic.
How very Exciting.
Long time no see one of them.

Whatever can it mean ????


92L may be heading to its demise in the Caribbean graveyard.
the water temp get warmer around 60 west
92L Holding it's own against the dry air. looks like a little banding trying to take place, with an increase in areal cloud cover.
should be an interesting few days.l
development odds are going to be higher after seeing the vis.
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 13m

CLose up of Atlantic Wave with nice looking circulation, also hint of open spot near center. #interesting

Invest 92L
Last Updated Jul 21, 2014 12 GMT
Location 11.4 41.6W Movement W
Wind 35 MPH

THE WINDS ARE 35 MPH!!!
92L...

188. FOREX
Hi Climate175, any chance of this surviving the shear in a few days? Would be nice if it remained intact after 60W.
Quoting 188. FOREX:

Hi Climate175, any chance of this surviving the shear in a few days? Would be nice if it remained intact after 60W.
I would just watch it and see what it does, it seems to be a fighter like Chantal and Dorian, not exactly sure yet. Shear should not be a problem.
190. 7544
Quoting 181. GeoffreyWPB:




hmm this one could get interesting dispite the dry air looks like it still may form and heading toward opps you know where wait watch and see .
Here we go...long tracked Cape V. storm.
.
193. SLU
Quoting 187. GeoffreyWPB:

92L...




Based on the ASCAT pass from last night and the rapid organisation this morning, 92L could already be a tropical storm.

Albeit a very weak and tiny one ...
Quoting 184. islander101010:

development odds are going to be higher after seeing the vis.


It is looking better this morning. And maybe in short term the NHC will raise odds a little bit. However, as they state in the discussion, conditions will become more unfavorable in a couple of days.

The thing that really has my eye is the total precipitable water. Compare the Atlantic to the Pacific and you can see why there are Cat 3,4,5 hurricanes forming over there. The Atlantic is loaded with dry sinking air while it is the complete opposite in the Pacific.
Invest 92L
As of 12:00 UTC Jul 21, 2014:

Location: 11.4°N 41.6°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1013 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1015 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM
92L It's looking pretty small & shallow. Shallow could help it slide under some shear if it doesn't gain too much strength/height.
Quoting 190. 7544:



hmm this one could get interesting dispite the dry air looks like it still may form and heading toward opps you know where wait watch and see .


I know! This has the house with the white awnings behind Publix off of Congress Ave. in Lake Worth, Fl. written all over it!
199. SLU
700-500 MB RH 55 52 49 45 44 42 40 37 36 38 41 46 52
i dont see any north movement read on another site another strong trough is suppose to move into the e. conus 10 days. if this tw is s. of cuba then the upper level trough might draw 92 up into the gulf
is that a small eye in 92L. SLU you could be very correct . 92 L looks like Bertha.
202. SLU


WE NEED MORE HEAVY T.STORMS IN THE CENTER OF THIS LOW.! where is the wind shar everyone is talking about
Guys I think we have Bertha.
I think this is a TS
Convection is increasing again.
209. 7544
Quoting 205. HurricaneAndre:

Guys I think we have Bertha.


agree here next .

Quoting 207. Climate175:

Convection is increasing again.

yep yep
The new convection may get spun into the center.
212. 7544
Quoting 211. Climate175:

The new convection may get spun into the center.


yep already u can see the S shape to it hmmmm could it be bertha already ?
Quoting 212. 7544:



yep already u can see the S shape to it hmmmm could it be bertha already ?
Intensity model take it to a Tropical Storm in 40 hrs, not sure but winds are 35 MPH.
214. beell
It is time to end this size-related stereotype associated with the name "Bertha".

May she ever remain small and dainty!

Big Bertha
I am glad other people noticed the eye, thought I was the only one last night. Bit early for computer, but I don't disagree with the track.
I think we at least have a tropical depression on our hands. Closed surface low pressure center with decent convection on the southern semi circle. Center of circulation I currently place it at 10.5-11.0n: 42.5w. Circulation is intensifying and closed, we have a decent sized however small tropical depression 2.
Good Morning Class!

A nice start to the day in Soo Cal

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Mon, 21 Jul 6:58 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Mon, 21 Jul 6:50 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
21 Jul 6:50 am PDT 62 47 57 SSE 1G02 OK
Quoting 174. Climate175:



The foretasted track of Ana 2009 was very similar.

Looks like this one sort of has its own little bubble of moisture moving with it for now.
Hey guys just popped in I hear we got 92L I see we got 92L and I'm intrigued 92L looking really good needs to build in size be overall good
220. DDR
Tropical storm or not the islands are in for a nice treat,rain-wise :)
good morning everyone from sunny el paso......we tied a record yesterday with a high of 104......expected to be over 100 degrees through the end of next weekend....we've already exceeded our average days over 100 degrees which is 20.....we could double that average this year
This is what you get in the atlantic vs Wpac

Quoting 220. DDR:

Tropical storm or not the islands are in for a nice treat,rain-wise :)
They way is looking now it won't even survive, needs to build convection and grow.
Huge area of sinking air ahead :(
Good Morning... all eyes on 92L.

If 92L can keep a decent amount of convection to the North and West then it should be able to survive the trek into the Caribbean, healthy enough to bring some good rains in that region.
226. MahFL
Quoting 222. Gearsts:

This is what you get in the atlantic vs Wpac


Not exactly true, the Wpac storm is days older than 92L, and it's season is more developed.



on the el nino front....looking at the anomaly map for the ENSO 3.4 region tells so much....first...why just looking at daily values can put you in a mental institution.....there's the highs of watching it climb so much and so fast.....then the lows of watching it crasch...and finally....the...what in the heck is it trying to do......there's a good article that i'll post in a minute that talks about how little we truly know when it comes to el nino....
Morning all.

This does look a bit better this a.m. ....

Quoting 224. Gearsts:

Huge area of sinking air ahead :(

Link

El Niño is still a mystery
It’s unknown as to how weather phenomenon could help alleviate California’s drought
comments 1 Comments
Posted: July 21, 2014 2:00 a.m.
Updated: July 21, 2014 2:00 a.m.
hgonzalez
By Hector Gonzalez
Signal Staff Writer

Like its name, El Niño is still an infant when it comes to what meteorologists actually know about the finicky weather phenomenon and how it impacts California’s rainy season.

“El Niño can happen any year. Sometimes you’ll have two or three years in a row when you have an El Niño going on,” said Logan Johnson, a National Weather Service meteorologist, who has studied the phenomenon and is tracking this year’s El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean.

“Or you may have a period of three or four years when you don’t have an El Niño happening. We don’t really know why it will repeat for several years in a row, but we do know that can happen sometimes.”

Any hopes of a strong El Niño bringing respite from the state’s three-year-old drought this winter fizzled with the release this month of data indicating a weak to moderate El Niño.

Scant data

While meteorologist know enough about El Niño to say reliably that strong events usually mean more rain for Southern California, the impacts of weak to moderate readings are unknown.

Serious research into what meteorologist call the El Niño Southern Oscillation began about 1950 — “just under 65 years of data,” Johnson said, leaving much still to be learned.

“Actually we wish there was better capability for seasonal forecasting, but the scientific capability for that is not very high,” said Jeanine Jones, interstate resources manager and state deputy drought manager at the California Department of Water Resources.

“This year the forecast is for an El Niño in the weak-to-moderate category, and those don’t provide a strong ‘signal’ for precipitation for Southern California.”

El Niño emits that “signal” only under certain circumstances and in certain locations, Jones said.

While a strong El Niño tends to soak Southern Californians, for residents in the central part of the state “it’s a mixed bag; it could go one way or the other.”

“El Niño is by no means the be-all and end-all of seasonal forecasting,” said Jones.
Quoting 226. MahFL:



Not exactly true, the Wpac storm is days older than 92L, and it's season is more developed.
From the start the wpac system had extreme cold convection on top.
signs of el nino

India is missing its monsoon, and El Niño could be the culprit

Andrew Turner
Lecturer in Monsoon Systems at University of Reading
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

Andrew Turner receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council and the India Ministry of Earth Sciences.

The Conversation is funded by the following universities: Aberdeen, Birmingham, Bradford, Bristol, Cardiff, City, Durham, Glasgow Caledonian, Goldsmiths, Lancaster, Leeds, Liverpool, Nottingham, The Open University, Queen's University Belfast, Salford, Sheffield, Surrey, UCL and Warwick.

It also receives funding from: Hefce, Hefcw, SAGE, SFC, RCUK, The Nuffield Foundation, The Ogden Trust, The Wellcome Trust, Esmée Fairbairn Foundation and The Alliance for Useful Evidence

EVENTS

The monsoon can dampen spirits, whether it rains too much or not enough. Arvind Jain, CC BY-SA
With each monsoon season India waits with bated breath for forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and other international forecasting agencies. This year’s forecast suggested a weakened monsoon, and sure enough for five weeks the monsoon has failed to provide the deluge that is expected.

For India, the monsoon rains typically last from June to September and contribute a whopping 80% of the annual rainfall total. Indian society is therefore finely tuned to the monsoon for its agriculture, industry and water supply for drinking and sanitation. If spread evenly over the whole country, the total rainfall during summer amounts to around 850mm. This year has seen a substantial deficit so far, currently standing at about 37% below normal and close to the large deficit in experienced in 2009, which was, like 2002 before it, a year of substantial drought, bringing reduced crop yields and hitting the country’s whole economy.
Quoting 224. Gearsts:

Huge area of sinking air ahead :(

I notice the N side seems a bit ... thin.... for a Bertha.... at least the circulation seems fairly vigorous now that it's N of 10N.... If it hangs on until about 55W, u guys may get a little rain out of it. That pouch needs to stay [dry] air tight...
236. SLU
If this does become Bertha it will be yet another early season Cape Verde storm called Bertha.
latest CPC weekly update is out...you can read it here.....latest weekly SST departure from average in the 3.4 region is 0.2C....gonna take more than that for el nino to be declared
238. JRRP
a Cat 1 ??? are you kidding me ??
Quoting 236. SLU:

If this does become Bertha it will be yet another early season Cape Verde storm called Bertha.
I just need it to stay below hurricane strength... our most recent Bertha was kind enough to form just off CV and hare itself up the central ATL... beautiful, bodacious and limited threat to land...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha_%28 2008%29

Quoting Gearsts:
Huge area of sinking air ahead :(
i really don't understand.... no el nino yet the atlantic is just devoid of pretty much anything favorable... how is that possible? why so much SAL and sinking air? just like the last 3 seasons... really hate this pattern. atlantic has become very boring. GFS shows nothing in 16 days..... really miss the seasons 2010 and before
China death toll from super typhoon rises to 33 -Xinhua

BEIJING, July 21 Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:28pm IST

(Reuters) - The death toll from a super typhoon, the strongest to hit southern China in 40 years, has risen to 33, state media said on Monday, after leaving at least 77 dead in the Philippines last week.

Typhoon Rammasun struck the island province of Hainan on Friday and then tore through parts of the mainland, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

Xinhua also said a mudslide on Monday killed 10 residents of a village in southern Yunnan province. Ten people were missing.

Rammasun hit the provinces of Guangxi, Guangdong, Yunnan and Hainan, wiping out trees and power lines. It affected more than eight million people, Xinhua said.

Guangdong province, an export powerhouse known for its factories, suffered the worst economic losses of more than 12.7 billion yuan ($2 billion), the agency reported.

Typhoons occur regularly at this time of year in the South China Sea, picking up strength from the warm waters and dissipating over land. Another typhoon, known as Matmo, is expected to strike Taiwan and eastern China later this week. (Reporting By Megha Rajagopalan; Editing by Ron Popeski)
243. SLU
Closed. I say we have at least a TD now.

Quoting BahaHurican:
I just need it to stay below hurricane strength... our most recent Bertha was kind enough to form just off CV and hare itself up the central ATL... beautiful, bodacious and limited threat to land...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha_%28 2008%29

Actually it reminds me of Bertha July 8, 1996 as it hit the northern Leewards and eastern Puerto Rico, I remembered those strong winds, in an unsually early season, hurricane..then gain strength rapidly as it moves towards the Bahamas...
I'll point out the intensity models had Chantal and Dorian becoming hurricanes, too. Still, it looks interesting right now.

Quoting 241. wunderweatherman123:

i really don't understand.... no el nino yet the atlantic is just devoid of pretty much anything favorable... how is that possible? why so much SAL and sinking air? just like the last 3 seasons... really hate this pattern. atlantic has become very boring. GFS shows nothing in 16 days..... really miss the seasons 2010 and before

You have been really looking at the GFS too much. Was Arthur on the GFS 16 days out? Not sure where you were at the end of June and beginning of July but I doubt people along the Southeast Coast found Arthur boring.
Invest #92L has a surface circulation and could reach TD/TS status before conditions become unfav mid week. - HurricaneTracker App Twitter.
249. MahFL
Quoting 241. wunderweatherman123: just like the last 3 seasons...


3 seasons is nothing, storms have been forming in the Atlantic for 10's of thousands of years.
250. MahFL
Quoting 243. SLU:

Closed. I say we have at least a TD now.




Might be me, but where is the closed low on there, all I see is white where 92L is...
Quoting Climate175:
Convection is increasing again.
I can't get over that little "dot", or Center of circulation, very well form for just a simple Invest....
I don't see 92L developing anytime soon. Moving way too fast, too much dry air, and SST are minimal, and small in structure which only subjugates even more to those impacts.

What are it's chances of making it into the Western Caribbean? Or is the steering for this system going to take it much further north than that? If it stayed weak, maybe it stays south of Florida when it gets that far west or no?
Comparing Invests

92L


96W



97W

Quoting 233. Gearsts:


With the High having pressures of 1018 to the Bahamas & 1016 through the Greater Antilles , not difficult to see where I92 could potentially track, early stages though at this juncture.Still some shear once it enters ( if it enters ) the Carib' ?
Quoting 246. CybrTeddy:

I'll point out the intensity models had Chantal and Dorian becoming hurricanes, too. Still, it looks interesting right now.




I see that east north east to west south west fetch of dry air to its north that poses a serious hurdle for it's developmental chances.

It would only be fitting for a TD/TS to form while Dr.Masters is on vacation. Steve keep up the good work!
Quoting 254. superpete:



With the High having pressures of 1018 to the Bahamas & 1016 through the Greater Antilles , not difficult to see where I92 could potentially track, early stages though at this juncture.Still some shear once it enters ( if it enters ) the Carib' ?

Your thinking what I'm thinking right
258. MahFL
Quoting 253. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Comparing Invests


Why are you even comparing basins ?
Morning. Well, 11n/42w is beginning to look a little noteworthy.

260. IDTH
I have feeling once 92L separates itself from the monsoon trough, it's going to get swallowed by dry air. Usually the monsoon trough protects a tropical system while it's connected and gives it a nice moisture bubble, but if it separates itself *Death by suffocation of dry air*
Lots of spin, but still deeply embedded in the ITCZ. That dry sinking air will choke it off quickly if it detaches from the "moisture train."




Tropical Storm Dorothy (1970)

92L
92L looks that is now has a closed low. could be now or TD/weak TS
264. JRRP
Quoting 241. wunderweatherman123:

i really don't understand.... no el nino yet the atlantic is just devoid of pretty much anything favorable... how is that possible? why so much SAL and sinking air? just like the last 3 seasons... really hate this pattern. atlantic has become very boring. GFS shows nothing in 16 days..... really miss the seasons 2010 and before
Warm side of neutral... keep in mind ENSO has been flirting with that threshold for a while. I also am of the opinion that some larger pattern [I mean longer in time range more so than in geographical scope] is influencing the level of stability over the ATL.

You should keep in mind, however, that this part of the season is USUALLY pretty slow, with limited formation opportunities before Aug. 10. Whether these el-nino-esque symptoms continue to be experienced into the height of the season remains to be seen....

Quoting 247. sporteguy03:


You have been really looking at the GFS too much. Was Arthur on the GFS 16 days out? Not sure where you were at the end of June and beginning of July but I doubt people along the Southeast Coast found Arthur boring.
Actually Arthur WAS on the GFS 15 days out.... it had been suggesting something forming in that area for several runs between June 10 and 20... and if u look at the GFS 15 days out right now, you're likely to see it forecasting some activity in the 10 - 14 day range. Nothing surprising about that, so long as you realize 15 days out GFS is not so likely to show you a specific storm as it is to show you where the potential for storm formation is....

Quoting 256. sporteguy03:
It would only be fitting for a TD/TS to form while Dr.Masters is on vacation. Steve keep up the good work!
Not only fitting, but typical.... lol....
266. SLU
Quoting 250. MahFL:



Might be me, but where is the closed low on there, all I see is white where 92L is...


Round 10n 43.5w you can see a sizable area of north west winds and that's to the south of the center. That did.t exist last night.
Quoting jpsb:


I normally plant the fall garden on 15 Sept, this year I will plant 15 Aug. It is going to be a very cold winter here in se Texas.


And my test of a warm fall is whether full season sweetcorn seeds planted Aug 1, mature before frost. The only season that happened was 2007 with a record warm October. July 24 corn is usually reliable in my part of DC.

I'll try to get broccoli, spinach, brussels sprouts and collards
to overwinter again this year. Last year all were killed except for spinach which had over 75% kill. But all are likely to at least make it to Christmas.

Summer coolness is not predictive of winter cold.
Good Morning. Brief comment on 92L (as noted further below). Per the 8:00 TWO, it is embedded in the trades at a 15-20 mph clip at the moment. We has this same issue in 2012 with several waves and that speed is just too fast to allow vertical organization; the optimum speed which we normally see on waves that develop is the 10-12 mph range. That is one of several factors which is an important one................It would need to slow down, and sustain persistent convection, in order for the t-storms to stack vertically around an organizing low.
269. SLU
Quoting 246. CybrTeddy:

I'll point out the intensity models had Chantal and Dorian becoming hurricanes, too. Still, it looks interesting right now.




This is a perfect example of the human eye being the best computer model which is something you always point out. The conditions were good enough for development all along even though the models showed little development. That said, this system may not have a long life but it shows that we need to use common sense at times and not follow the models 100% of the time.
270. Mikla
I don't know folks. Not sure where this "closed low" is coming from. I see some circulation in the images but at best it looks elongated and ragged. There is no ASCAT data that I have seen to confirm anything yet. Dry air is still getting pulled in at the mid-levels that is offset by the moisture from the ITCZ.
Quoting 257. wunderkidcayman:

Your thinking what I'm thinking right


Morning WKC!
Still noticeable 40 knots of shear in the Caribbean under the D.R. , currently tearing into the wave transiting the area at the moment.Will be a tough job for a weak system to get thru' ( looking at the CIMSS wind analysis now)
Quoting 262. SFLWeatherman:

img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al922014.p ng">
img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al922014_i nten.png">

Tropical Storm Dorothy (1970)
img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons /thumb/9/96/Tropical_Storm_Dorothy_%281970%29.jpg/ 1280px-Tropical_Storm_Dorothy_%281970%29.jpg">
92L
img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/ imagery/vis0-lalo.gif">
Interesting that the best analogs went into the Caribbean....
274. SLU


Quoting 259. GatorWX:

Morning. Well, 11n/42w is beginning to look a little noteworthy.




I didn't even realize it was an invest. Haven't paid much attention in the last few days except to Matmo, which has been a bit slower than anticipated to develop. 92L could have a shot in the near term, but days 2-4 look pretty rough. After, if it makes it to the nw carib or Bahamas, it may have a second opportunity. I think its time is now though if it is to do anything at all. Needs to sustain deeper convection to do so and it's likely it wont survive the carib at all if it doesn't.
It is very unlikely this will move west. I know, a weak system doesn't respond to weakness,,dadadadada. However, the placement of the high would allow a much more WNW and NW movement in the coming days.



Why people here are so excited for a TW that is not going to survive as a TD or TS.Everyone knows that.
Currently an anticyclone sitting right above it which is obviously aiding its appearance and its ability to sustain any convection by helping ward off the drier air.

Quoting 274. SLU:




OK... see what u r talking about. Even if not closed completely, it sure looks close enough. Would be good to get a proper ASCAT, though. I seriously doubt we get a TD out of this before tomorrow morning, and I would really like to see what goes on when it pops off the monsoon trough at about 45W.... still have fingers crossed for at least some convection from Barbados to the Virgins....
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the
central tropical Atlantic.

Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours.
Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs
of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed
circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a
small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression
could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time
however, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts

CODE ORANGE.
now 50%..
Meanwhile looks like Matmo is expected to track across Taipei as cat 3...

284. JRRP
ed
286. 7544
50% now nhc hmmm
Quoting 277. prcane4you:

Why people here are so excited for a TW that is not going to survive as a TD or TS.Everyone knows that.
What else is there to be excited about.
288. FOREX
Yes we know that this invest will not survive the dry air and shear in the coming days, but we can at least enjoy watching it anyway.
I suspect this will change..

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 JULY 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM

Quoting 272. Patrap:







I'm going to say this right now and say that if something like Jose was classified, this should. :p
Quoting 288. FOREX:

Yes we know that this invest will not survive the dry air and shear in the coming days, but we can at least enjoy watching it anyway.
50% via NHC.
Please dont quote the trolls..
293. Mikla
Quoting 277. prcane4you:

Why people here are so excited for a TW that is not going to survive as a TD or TS.Everyone knows that.

First CV storm of the year. Plus, there are a lot of unkowns and possibilities so it makes it interesting to try and figure out what is going to happen.
At the rate things are going it might very well become Bertha.
Quoting 276. Grothar:

It is very unlikely this will move west. I know, a weak system doesn't respond to weakness,,dadadadada. However, the placement of the high would allow a much more WNW and NW movement in the coming days.

img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://i.imgur.com/oOG2Tgv.png">


Actually I am thinking the BAMs have a good handle on it for now... a pretty typical track, south of PR and then across Hispaniola or eastern Cuba.... but nothing any of the models is suggesting right now seems outrageous.
Quoting 287. BahaHurican:

What else is there to be excited about.
Up to you.
Quoting 293. Mikla:


First CV storm of the year. Plus, there are a lot of unkowns and possibilities so it makes it interesting to try and figure out what is going to happen.

I'm already excited just for what it is now.
Quoting Climate175:
50% via NHC.
Up to 50%, boy,things change quick in the tropics,...
Quoting 292. ncstorm:

Please dont quote the trolls..
Are you one of them?
Quoting 282. ncstorm:

now 50%..
Good call on this one, NC... you made us look at this before we were ready to consider it.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the
central tropical Atlantic.

1. Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours.
Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs
of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed
circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a
small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression
could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time
however, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

BIG JUMP UP TO 20% to 50% in two hours.
Quoting 294. allancalderini:

At the rate things are going it might very well become Bertha.


We're bound to get something to form with Dr. Masters on vacation.
Well, an early CV system is normally a sign of an active season. Although we saw how that worked out last year.

Interesting how well organised the wave has become and how everyone was bashing the CMC yesterday. ;)

Hopefully it'll be able to bring some much needed rain to some of the islands in the Caribbean.
All I am going to say is 92L has it's work cut out for it.
I guess I can stop posting this now.

Quoting 297. opal92nwf:


I'm already excited just for what it is now.


LOL
Quoting 290. Articuno:



I'm going to say this right now and say that if something like Jose was classified, this should. :p
That's what you always say.

Quoting 296. prcane4you:

Up to you.

I'm so EXCITED!!! and I just CAN'T HIDE IT!!! Am abaht to lose control.....

Quoting 307. Grothar:

I guess I can stop posting this now.




hehehehe...Did you see it first?......LOL
According to satellite imagery, 92L is becoming better organized and appears to be closing off a circulation. Though, convection is limited, any further increase in organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression. There is a High chance, 60% chance of development into a tropical cyclone.

Very impressive increase in organization overnight.


Quoting 307. Grothar:

I guess I can stop posting this now.




you bet not fold!!
This is going to be a strong tropical storm by the looks oh.
314. wxmod
Russia fires. MODIS

Quoting 309. BahaHurican:

That's what you always say.



Give me one time i've said that? :P
316. SLU
Quoting 279. BahaHurican:

OK... see what u r talking about. Even if not closed completely, it sure looks close enough. Would be good to get a proper ASCAT, though. I seriously doubt we get a TD out of this before tomorrow morning, and I would really like to see what goes on when it pops off the monsoon trough at about 45W.... still have fingers crossed for at least some convection from Barbados to the Virgins....


Yes i'll take anything I can get out of this just to get some rain this week.
192 hrs GEM model..doesnt have 92L Hitting the USA......thru 192 hours anyway...
Quoting 302. hurricanes2018:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the
central tropical Atlantic.

1. Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours.
Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs
of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed
circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a
small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression
could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time
however, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

BIG JUMP UP TO 20% to 50% in two hours.
They saw that "almost closed" ASCAT that SLU noticed.... lol ...

I'm inclined to update my "TD status upgrade" point to "from 8 p.m. tonight to 8 a.m. tomorrow".... lol...
Quoting 303. Grothar:




HI Gro. If 92L develops it will be a big win of the GFS as it was the first model to sniff development.
322. xcool
I agree with you Envoirment .
The Dr. Masters Vacation Curse is at it again!
324. JRRP
GFS only give 6 hours of life to this wave
Quoting 313. Climate175:

This is going to be a strong tropical storm by the looks oh.
Why do you believe that?
Are the unfavorable conditions the NHC is talking about primarily in the Caribbean?

Even if it gets messed up in Carib, a wave this significant could still act as a seed for development farther west.
Quoting 321. allancalderini:

HI Gro. If 92L develops it will be a big win of the GFS as it was the first model to sniff development.


I first noticed it on the NAVGEM 6 days ago. The GFS would have it and drop it, just like the ECMWF. I don't have an explanation as to why, but yes, the NCEP was consistent since the wave left Africa.
Quoting 325. Gearsts:

Why do you believe that?
Intensity Models that Grothar is posting.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 250. MahFL:



Might be me, but where is the closed low on there, all I see is white where 92L is...

The part of the pass SLU was posting, is south of the center. Which, if you look toward the top right of the image, shows you westerly winds.
Quoting 265. BahaHurican:

Warm side of neutral... keep in mind ENSO has been flirting with that threshold for a while. I also am of the opinion that some larger pattern [I mean longer in time range more so than in geographical scope] is influencing the level of stability over the ATL.

You should keep in mind, however, that this part of the season is USUALLY pretty slow, with limited formation opportunities before Aug. 10. Whether these el-nino-esque symptoms continue to be experienced into the height of the season remains to be seen....

Actually Arthur WAS on the GFS 15 days out.... it had been suggesting something forming in that area for several runs between June 10 and 20... and if u look at the GFS 15 days out right now, you're likely to see it forecasting some activity in the 10 - 14 day range. Nothing surprising about that, so long as you realize 15 days out GFS is not so likely to show you a specific storm as it is to show you where the potential for storm formation is....

Not only fitting, but typical.... lol....


I agree that anything over 5 days on a computer model can show you potential in an area where a storm could form.
NC Storm and Grothar are very good at pointing out areas to watch. They are a valued asset to the community.
Quoting 304. Sfloridacat5:

We're bound to get something to form with Dr. Masters on vacation.
Agreed. This was the one variable missing so far this season... lol ...

Quoting 307. Grothar:

I guess I can stop posting this now.

Not quite yet.... lol... u were the other person making us look at that particular wave from the start. Don't desert us now!!! ;o)
Quoting 316. SLU:



Yes i'll take anything I can get out of this just to get some rain this week.
Looks like NHC agreed w/ u on the [almost] closed circulation. Looking for a little persistence now... If this doesn't spin up a little more, the rain seems pretty likely to stay south... :o/

334. FOREX
Quoting 324. JRRP:

GFS only give 6 hours of life to this wave


GFS is out to lunch. I give the system 72 hours.
Quoting 277. prcane4you:

Why people here are so excited for a TW that is not going to survive as a TD or TS.Everyone knows that.

You do realize you are on a tropical weather blog, don't you?. A place where people analyze and discuss tropical weather. People who are interested and get excited about tropical weather...regardless of whether or not the tropical weather will live, die, explode, or fade away. Shees! And why are you here?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
92L



Quoting 335. fmbill:


You do realize you are on a tropical weather blog, don't you?. A place where people analyze and discuss tropical weather. People who are interested and get excited about tropical weather...regardless of whether or not the tropical weather will live, die, explode, or fade away. Shees! And why are you here?
Is this a weather blog? Oh Im sorry.Anyway Im gonna be here watching you .You are so funny
Looks like we will have TD2 or TS Bertha maybe tonight or even later today
Quoting 224. Gearsts:

Huge area of sinking air ahead :(



That doesn't really matter, all tropical cyclones should actually have sinking air ahead of them. unless they are approaching a trough, which in the end ends up being the demise of the system due to shear. The upper anti-cyclone that provides effective outflow and prevents shear over a tropical system also leads to sinking air out ahead of the system to the west and northwest of it. This is completely normal for tropical waves as well. I'm not sure where the term "calm before the storm" comes from, however I suspect it is possible that it comes from the hot and dry sinking air ahead of tropical systems.

What really matters is if it can keep the dry air nearby out of the system, which is difficult.
340. flsky
Weird Al
Link
Quoting 338. wunderkidcayman:

Looks like we will have TD2 or TS Bertha maybe tonight or even later today


Just watched Levi's video. He agrees but throws a wet blanket over it and says dry, stable air will kill it as soon as it breaks away from the monsoon flow.