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Little Change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:47 PM GMT on July 30, 2014

An area of disturbed weather located near 9°N, 45°W at 8 am EDT Wednesday, about 1150 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (93L), has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Thursday, but is struggling with high wind shear today. Visible satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed 93L had a well-defined surface circulation and some low-level spiral bands. However, infrared satellite images showed heavy thunderstorm activity was very limited, and the storm is fighting high wind shear of about 20 knots. Water vapor satellite loops and the Saharan Air Layer analysis showed that while there was some dry air in the vicinity of 93L, the bulk of the dry Saharan Air Layer lay to the north. Ocean temperatures had warmed since Tuesday, and were about 28°C, which is 2°C warmer than the typical 26°C threshold for development.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 93L.


Figure 2. Analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) made at 8 am EDT Wednesday July 30, 2014 using data from the Meteosat-9 satellite. Dry, dusty air was present from the coast of Africa westwards across the tropical Atlantic, but was fairly well separated from tropical disturbance 93L. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS/NOAA Hurricane Research Division.

Forecast for 93L
The high levels of wind shear affecting 93L on Wednesday morning were expected to diminish to a moderate 10 - 15 knots by Wednesday night, according to the 12 UTC Wednesday forecast from the SHIPS model. With the atmosphere around 93L reasonably moist, this may allow the system to become a tropical depression as early as the 11 pm EDT Wednesday NHC advisory. Thursday morning is probably a more likely time for classification as a TD, though. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will stay roughly constant at 28°C. Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS and UKMET models, predicted in their 00Z Wednesday runs that the disturbance would develop into a tropical depression by Friday, but were much less aggressive about strengthening the storm than in previous runs. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 2-day and 5-day odds of development at 70% .

All of the models predict that the disturbance will continue west-northwest at 13 - 19 mph for the next four days. The UKMET and the European models offer the fastest solution, predicting that the disturbance will arrive in the northeast Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday evening, move over Puerto Rico on Saturday evening, and approach the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Sunday evening. The GFS is slower and more to the northeast, predicting a Saturday morning arrival in the northern Lesser Antilles, with passage about 100 miles northeast of Puerto Rico occurring on Sunday morning. Dry air to the north of 93L will likely interfere with development throughout the week, and the atmosphere surrounding 93L will grow drier as the storm progresses west-northwest. The moderate levels of wind shear forecast to occur will be capable of driving this dry air into the core of the system, disrupting formation. The Wednesday morning runs of our two top statistical models for predicting intensity, the LGEM and DSHIPS models, forecast that once 93L became a tropical depression, it would intensify into a hurricane within 3.5 days. However, the dynamical GFDL and HWRF models, which made good intensity forecasts for Hurricane Arthur, were much less bullish. The Wednesday morning runs of these models predicted that 93L would never reach hurricane strength. I give a 10% chance that 93L will be a hurricane on Saturday when it makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 93L hits the Northern Lesser Antilles as a wet Tropical Storm Bertha (not a hurricane), the storm could be more boon than bane for the islands. The Northeast Caribbean suffered its driest June in recorded history last month, according to NOAA, and many of the islands have significant drought problems.

The GFS and European models continue to agree on the long-range fate of 93L. The great majority of the 20 members of the 00Z Wednesday runs of the European and GFS ensemble models (which run at low resolution 20 times with slightly different initial conditions to show a range of possible outcomes) showed 93L taking a northwesterly track early next week in response to a strong trough of low pressure over the Eastern United States, then recurving to the north without hitting the mainland U.S. coast.

The Hurricane Hunters to study 93L
Originally, a fleet of five hurricane hunter aircraft were headed to the Caribbean today to intercept 93L, according to the NOAA/HRD blog and the NHC recon Plan of the Day. Two Air Force C-130s are still headed to the islands, and will begin flying alternating missions into 93L on Thursday afternoon. The three NOAA aircraft that were scheduled to deploy today have now had their missions cancelled.


Figure 3. Image taken at 8:50 pm EDT July 29, 2014, from the Guam radar, showing the eye of Tropical Storm Halong over the island of Rota, north of Guam.

Tropical Storm Halong hits Guam
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Halong passed just north of Guam on Tuesday night (EDT), with sustained winds near 65 mph. Anderson AFB recorded a top wind gust of 53 mph, and 11.82" of rain. The eye of the storm passed over the island of Rota, where a wind gust of 58 mph was recorded. Guam radar shows that Halong is now moving to the northwest away from Guam, and the storm may be a long-range threat to Japan.

Sharknado 2 Airs Tonight!
The much-anticipated sequel to the ridiculous "Sharknado", "Sharknado 2: The Second One" is scheduled to hit the air on the Syfy Channel at 9pm EDT/8 pm CDT on July 30, 2014. Yes, after terrorizing Los Angeles, once again bloodthirsty people-eating tornado-hurled sharks will hit a major American city--this time, New York. "Even the sharknadoes are tougher in New York," quips the hero of the movie, actor Ian Ziering, reprising his role from "Sharknado." According to the production studio, The Asylum, Al Roker will make a cameo appearance in the film as himself. Billy Ray Cyrus, Matt Lauer, the Subway guy, and Kelly Osbourne are also listed as cast members. As I wrote last year in my review of "Sharknado", the movie seriously challenged The Day After Tomorrow for greatest number of impossible meteorological events packed into a single film. Wunderground, for now, has decided not to create a new "Sharknado" weather icon for the web site, due to the low probability of such an event occurring with the laws of physics being what they currently are. But, if you are in a masochistic mood for a campy low-budget parody of both disaster and horror movies, "Sharknado 2" is likely to be a hoot.


Video 1. Watch out, New York! It's the official Sharknado 2 trailer.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. FOREX
Quoting 997. 7544:

now nhc says 60/60 lol
Thought for sure it would be a TD at this update. Wow.
"Final four"...Not that is just awesome...So glad we finally made it out of that trash system they used for years.

So how's the feeble cloud in the ITCZ looking anyway?
Quoting 1000. GatorWX:



No, not any time soon anyway. Perhaps down the road? ;)


He's trying his hardest to find a way this makes it to the Cayman's...

Very close to going red on every single sensor...That doesn't happen often and couldn't happen at a more inopportune time.
You know who's not thrilled to be in the SEC? Belima lmao, going for money over fame, love, and longevity. His name is not often mentioned here. SEC is so loaded. Best athletes and some of the best coaches in the country. Beast of a conference. Bertha tomorrow night? Models are all off at this point as this system has meandered, weakened, almost died, and now come back. Should be interesting to see what models have to say this time tomorrow morning.
Code red 60/60.
1006. cg2916


The center isn't quite covered yet.
1007. GatorWX
Quoting 1003. StormJunkie:



He's trying his hardest to find a way this makes it to the Cayman's...

Very close to going red on every single sensor...That doesn't happen often and couldn't happen at a more inopportune time.


What makes ya think that?
1008. GatorWX
wink wink
1009. GatorWX
Quoting 1002. StormJunkie:

"Final four"...Not that is just awesome...So glad we finally made it out of that trash system they used for years.

So how's the feeble cloud in the ITCZ looking anyway?


Oh, now it's a feeble cloud? I'm getting confused by your nomenclature.
lol

Anywho, looks like junk low is starting its typical convective collapse...

1011. FOREX
Quoting 1003. StormJunkie:



He's trying his hardest to find a way this makes it to the Cayman's...

Very close to going red on every single sensor...That doesn't happen often and couldn't happen at a more inopportune time.
What does red indicate?
Guys 93L is up 35kts now. 
60/60 by HNC now lol. Their numbers have been comical the last two days. System has been well formed but in dry air and moderate shear. NHC's numbers have been right on. What a confusing system with conditions that warrant possible strong TS and possible opening of the low. NHC has been in an impossible situation with this low, conditions positive/negative and we could see nothing or a hurricane. They earn their money. Flip a coin at this point.
1014. GatorWX
We'll see if it can persist or if this is just another teaser, but shear is obviously an issue at some level of the atmosphere.
1015. GatorWX
Quoting 1010. StormJunkie:

lol

Anywho, looks like junk low is starting its typical convective collapse...




I know. WHY? I just want to be stripped of this tropical boredom! lol
Convection collapse is over, we'll not see this go to a naked swirl again. Conditions shear wise have improved, but dry air remains in the mid levels. Think this will slowly develop to TD by tomorrow night and then make the Southern Bahama's as a 60mph TS and either go OTS or head West or up the EC. Strength and positioning of trough coming off the EC will be the deciding factor. 10% chance of Bertha making the Gulf and that would be very bad.
1017. GatorWX
I know it's meek now, but watch that dot west of main region of convection. Ain't nuttin' happenin' tonight though. Stayed up too late last night and already have tonight, so with those points made, I'm out. It tried, once again. it's going to go, least my gut says so.. Stay tuned! :) Night all
Quoting 998. FOREX:

My Boise State broncos open against
Ole Miss at the Georgia Dome. Not expecting Boise to put up many points. They have no QB.



Peterson is a great coach. I was surprised he stayed after Kellen Moore and that fantastic group left. You know he had loads of offers to coach at bigger schools. Boise had a great thing going while Peterson was there and I hope that they can get back in the mix again. At least Peterson showed more loyalty to a school than Urban Meyer did.
Junk low? Katrina started as a "junk low" that went to TD status then poofed only to come again as the "Beast of the East." This is no Junk low. There is no such thing when conditions are so border line one way or another. May die a quick death, or may be a real threat. 30% opens up, 55% becomes a TD or weak TS, and 15% becomes a strong TS or stronger. Predictions are just that, only nature knows.
1020. GatorWX
I'll leave you with these:




See you in a few hours. Why am I so enthralled? lol
1021. Drakoen
Stormjunkie...taking my terminology and making it his own...They grow up so fast :)
Quoting 1021. Drakoen:

Stormjunkie...taking my terminology and making it his own...They grow up so fast :)


Drak, what's your thinking on this system? We emulate those we wish to be more like. ncstorm is not happy with you though. :)
they play at Lambeau in 2016
This wouldn't make a lot of sense...and I could easily be misinterpreting IR since that is easy to do. Plus no microwave or scat to help...but did rubbish lows center somehow get back down to 9.9N?

Drak, you really have no idea how much I've enjoyed the terminology you fostered with "Trash low". ;-). Thanks again!
Bertha been declared by sources.
Trash low thinking it has a right to fire convection...Silly cloud...

1027. FOREX
Quoting 1025. HurricaneAndre:

Bertha been declared by sources.


Please don't write things that are untrue.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM NAKRI (1412)
15:00 PM JST July 31 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: NAKRI 120 KM South Southwest Of Naha (Okinawa)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nakri (985 hPa) located at 25.3N 127.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
375 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
270 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 29.5N 125.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) East China Sea
48 HRS: 32.3N 124.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) East China Sea
72 HRS: 34.0N 124.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Yellow Sea
1029. Gearsts
TD
The areal extent of the convection is increasing, but it's still not organizing into bands, nor is it collocated with the wave axis:

Quoting 1025. HurricaneAndre:

Bertha been declared by sources.

such as?
1032. FOREX
Quoting 1031. dfwstormwatch:


such as?


National Enquirer.
1033. Drakoen
Quoting 1031. dfwstormwatch:


such as?


Must be based out of STORMTOP's office.
Quoting 1025. HurricaneAndre:

Bertha been declared by sources.
You better be sure on what you say. You need to be 99% when you make those statements and I don't say 100 because the NHC have the last word.
I am loathe to extrapolate a partial ASCAT pass, but at least the south side looks well-defined (arguably the most important):

1036. FOREX
Quoting 1034. allancalderini:

You better be sure on what you say. You need to be 99% when you make those statements and I don't say 100 because the NHC have the last word.


He makes comments like that all the time. For example, he says at least 5 times a day, "I think we have Bertha." Acts like a little kid.
Quoting 1036. FOREX:



He makes comments like that all the time. For example, he says at least 5 times a day, "I think we have Bertha." Acts like a little kid.


Andre's only like 15 or 16, I think, but I think he's a good kid. Give him a few years. He'll grow.
Quoting 1033. Drakoen:



Must be based out of STORMTOP's office.


Or perhaps yours, for that matter of fact, =)
Quoting 1038. PlywoodState2014:



Or perhaps yours, for that matter of fact, =)


JFV, Drak is a better forecaster than many people here will ever be.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM HALONG (1411)
15:00 PM JST July 31 2014
==============================

SUBJECT: HALONG Near The Marianas Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Halong (992 hPa) located at 15.2N 141.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 15.6N 139.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Okinotori-shima waters
48 HRS: 16.0N 138.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Okinotori-shima waters
72 HRS: 17.2N 136.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Okinotori-shima waters
Quoting 1035. KoritheMan:

I am loathe to extrapolate a partial ASCAT pass, but at least the south side looks well-defined (arguably the most important):




Kori...Come on now...you know better than to post a 6.5 hr old Ascat of junk wave... ;-)

Everyone just going to ignore that comment regarding the possibility of the center being back around 9.7N 47W? I'll listen to either side of that debate.
Hey, Kors, when are you expecting the major pattern shift to finally get underway?

Will it be a significant change?

Will it be happening, or?
Quoting 1041. StormJunkie:



Kori...Come on now...you know better than to post a 6.5 hr old Ascat of junk wave... ;-)

Everyone just going to ignore that comment regarding the possibility of the center being back around 9.7N 47W? I'll listen to either side of that debate.


I didn't ignore it, I just don't really see it.

And I can't imagine the wave structure has deamplified since the time of that pass. It probably hasn't amplified, but I don't think the low as a whole is as disorganized as you suggest.

Relative term in this case, yeah, but it's not out yet. Convection does need to organize more.
Quoting 1042. PlywoodState2014:

Hey, Kors, when are you expecting the major pattern shift to finally get underway?

Will it be a significant change?

Will it be happening, or?


Still happening from what I can tell. I see troughs, but that's normal from run to run in any year. And the troughs I have seen are typical progressive shortwaves. At the very least we should see a return to a normal 500 mb pattern.

Don't expect 2004/2005 levels of blocking, though.
Quoting 1043. KoritheMan:



I didn't ignore it, I just don't really see it.

And I can't imagine the wave structure has deamplified since the time of that pass. It probably hasn't amplified, but I don't think the low as a whole is as disorganized as you suggest.

Relative term in this case, yeah, but it's not out yet. Convection does need to organize more.


Go to the GHCC site or Earth Science, put a 30 frame IR loop on of rubbish low, speed it up. I saw the good Ascat earlier. I don't think it is structurally disorganized for the record. It's still a rubbish rain shower though.
Quoting 1039. KoritheMan:



JFV, Drak is a better forecaster than many people here will ever be.


That may be so, but tragically, his alter ego does him in, more often than not.

Besides, a met degree from 'Nole Country'' is simply not enough to survive in this field any longer.

When he compliments that degree with his AMS certification, then and only then, we'll talk.

I wonder if he's back down in Lake Worth for the summer....he probably is!
Quoting 1045. StormJunkie:



Go to the GHCC site or Earth Science, put a 30 frame IR loop on of rubbish low, speed it up. I saw the good Ascat earlier. I don't think it is structurally disorganized for the record. It's still a rubbish rain shower though.


Rubbish rainshower it is. No arguments there. :)
Quoting 1046. PlywoodState2014:



That may be so, but tragically, his alter ego does him in, more often than not.

Besides, a met degree from 'Nole Country'' is simply not enough to survive in this field any longer.

When he compliments that degree with his AMS certification, then and only then, we'll talk.

I wonder if he's back down in Lake Worth for the summer....he probably is!


Drak is one of the few people I actually still come to this website for. I've come very far in my time here, and I've learned enough to hold my own. But Drak is literally one of only two handfuls of people here that I can actually have a decent debate with. And learn something.

You clearly extend such great respect to me and I'm not even a meteorologist for now. Try and extend at least that to. Drak. Ideally more. He deserves it.
Quoting 1046. PlywoodState2014:



That may be so, but tragically, his alter ego does him in, more often than not.

Besides, a met degree from 'Nole Country'' is simply not enough to survive in this field any longer.

When he compliments that degree with his AMS certification, then and only then, we'll talk.

I wonder if he's back down in Lake Worth for the summer....he probably is!

eh, who are you? you only have 2 comments
1050. Gearsts
Quoting 1044. KoritheMan:



Still happening from what I can tell. I see troughs, but that's normal from run to run in any year. And the troughs I have seen are typical progressive shortwaves. At the very least we should see a return to a normal 500 mb pattern.

Don't expect 2004/2005 levels of blocking, though.


Oh no, of course not.

The troughs are not gonna come to sudden halt, all of the sudden, especially with the Fall Equinox drawing nearer.

But as you stated, as long as they're shortwave, progressive troughs, instead of amplified trough which decide to just hang out along the east coast for weeks on end (Like right now).

The latter are what recurve systems, not so much the former.

If that's what we're looking at here, then the peak of the season should hopefully bring us some landfalls!

Other factors matter too, but this by far would be one of the main ones in play.

You're giving me hope here, Kori...hopefully it'll pan out.
Quoting 1048. KoritheMan:



Drak is one of the few people I actually still come to this website for. I've come very far in my time here, and I've learned enough to hold my own. But Drak is literally one of only two handfuls of people here that I can actually have a decent debate with. And learn something.

You clearly extend such great respect to me and I'm not even a meteorologist for now. Try and extend at least that to, Drak; ideally more. He deserves it.


Fine, I will.

I know the guy is very bright, it's just his personality rubs me the wrong way.

Dude, come again! I'm not foreign o this forum. I've been blogging here since 2007.

I've seen him at his best, as well as at his worst.

I especially love his altercations with Levi.

Those are something else.
Testing. 123
My point was that, based on the visible imagery through the day, we should be able to see the LLC still on the NW side of the convection moving wnw as it did all day. It should be visible even on IR since it should be exposed. Where the heck is said trash wave's rubbish llc since we can't see it?
Quoting 1054. StormJunkie:

My point was that, based on the visible imagery through the day, we should be able to see the LLC still on the NW side of the convection moving wnw as it did all day. It should be visible even on IR since it should be exposed. Where the heck is said trash wave's rubbish llc since we can't see it?


I'd say around 10.9N 50.1W.
1056. FOREX
Quoting 1054. StormJunkie:

My point was that, based on the visible imagery through the day, we should be able to see the LLC still on the NW side of the convection moving wnw as it did all day. It should be visible even on IR since it should be exposed. Where the heck is said trash wave's rubbish llc since we can't see it?

10.8N 50.2W
Looks to be moving a tad bit more west than wnw.
1058. FOREX
Quoting 1057. hurricanewatcher61:

Looks to be moving a tad bit more west than wnw.


That's what I am seeing also. Maybe slightly North of due West again. I'm sure the NHC would disagree.
Quoting 1055. KoritheMan:



I'd say around 10.9N 50.1W.


Those coords would make junk llc exposed...Which should mean it could be seen even on IR. Maybe it just slammed on the breaks from earlier?
1060. tj175
Where is LEVI? I miss his tropical tidbits. No Bertha as of yet with 93L but more flare ups on the south side. Still looks to be moving West or a little north or West but we shall see. Lots of dry air to the north of her though and shear in the vicinity. Come on 93 you can do it
1061. Drakoen
Quoting 1049. dfwstormwatch:


eh, who are you? you only have 2 comments


Nobody.
Come ON NHC UPGRADE.!!!!!!!
Quoting 1059. StormJunkie:



Those coords would make junk llc exposed...Which should mean it could be seen even on IR. Maybe it just slammed on the breaks from earlier?


The north side is still exposed. Convection seems to wrapping around the gyre, though. A little.

Still not enough to impress me, however.

EDIT: Also, yes. I do agree that it appears to have decelerated. My guess is it's trying to tuck under the convection.
Quoting 1060. tj175:

Where is LEVI? I miss his tropical tidbits. No Bertha as of yet with 93L but more flare ups on the south side. Still looks to be moving West or a little north or West but we shall see. Lots of dry air to the north of her though and shear in the vicinity. Come on 93 you can do it


You can find him on YouTube
I am a novice. Can anyone please tell me what the white line means (among all of the pink/red) in the ensemble model of 93L? I tried to find out and could not. Thank you.
Quoting 1065. BillieUSA:

I am a novice. Can anyone please tell me what the white line means (among all of the pink/red) in the ensemble model of 93L? I tried to find out and could not. Thank you.


White line = track of the operational.
1067. barbamz
Quoting 1060. tj175:

Where is LEVI? I miss his tropical tidbits. No Bertha as of yet with 93L but more flare ups on the south side. Still looks to be moving West or a little north or West but we shall see. Lots of dry air to the north of her though and shear in the vicinity. Come on 93 you can do it


Here you go: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Good morning folks. Finland (!) may get some tornadoes today:

Storm Forecast from Estofex:
Valid: Thu 31 Jul 2014 06:00 to Fri 01 Aug 2014 06:00 UTC, Issued: Thu 31 Jul 2014 00:30, Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 2 was issued for parts of Finland mainly for severe wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail. ...
SYNOPSIS
A well-developed cut-off low moves slowly from the Adriatic Sea to the Balkan Peninsula. To its north, an intensifying ridge stretches from south-western Europe across central Europe to western Russia. A head of low geopotential over north-western Europe and the north-east Atlantic, several short-wave troughs move north-eastward.
At lower levels, a cold front has crossed Sweden and Germany and will affect a region from Finland to Poland and the northern Balkans on Thursday. Rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will allow for CAPE around 1000 J/kg in the afternoon hours. Rich moisture will also remain in the Alpine region, whereas drier air spreads into Germany and France. ...



Current radar Finland. Click to get the latest.





-----------------------------

Atlantic:




Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability. 93L: huh?

Have a nice day everybody!


good morning everyone new tropical wave soon!
THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.


Excerpt from yesterdays Discussion , NWS New Orleans.
centre OF 93L relocated to the southwest at 10.2N 51.3W and now looks to be going North due west. There is also an apparent vortex in the tropical wave west of 93L.


invest 95E
1072. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


The north side is still exposed. Convection seems to wrapping around the gyre, though. A little.

Still not enough to impress me, however.

EDIT: Also, yes. I do agree that it appears to have decelerated. My guess is it's trying to tuck under the convection.

Well, I was hoping to be more impressed after not seeing 93L for about five hours. But I'm not. The convection hasn't increased very much and no deep convection that I can see. It appears that the storm has decelerated markedly, probably trying to get the center aligned with the convection. There are probably at least TD winds all over the place, mostly because it's been spinning for three days. 93L is still alive...but not by much.
G'morning weathergeeks! El nino got us unraveled? :) Y'all about have 93L figured out? Let's see - there's dry air to the northwest quadrant of the fairly vigous coc, llc outrunnig convection, still needs a coriolis bump, and, of course, more convection. That about sum it up? What's the calabash tree saying?

Anyways, hope everyone is doing well, you've got a storm plan, and getting some shut-eye in between clouds.

Have a good one, y'all! Play nice! :)
1074. LargoFl
Back up to 60%............................................... ...............TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite data indicate that shower activity has increased a little
in association with a well-defined low pressure system located about
850 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. In addition, winds
to near tropical storm force are occurring over a small area just
north of the center. While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for development, any additional increase in
organization could lead to the formation of a tropical depression
or tropical storm during the next day or so. Interests in the
Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as it
moves west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
1075. sar2401
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
G'morning weathergeeks! El nino got us unraveled? :) Y'all about have 93L figured out? Let's see - there's dry air to the northwest quadrant of the fairly vigous coc, llc outrunnig convection, still needs a coriolis bump, and, of course, more convection. That about sum it up? What's the calabash tree saying?

Anyways, hope everyone is doing well, you've got a storm plan, and getting some shut-eye in between clouds.

Have a good one, y'all! Play nice! :)
LOL. Yeah, that about covers it, MLC. Still a messy storm with potential but the child is still playing around instead of getting to homework. The calabash tree is still a mystery this morning.
1076. barbamz

Sunshine on 93L.
1077. SLU
Quoting 1070. stoormfury:

centre OF 93L relocated to the southwest at 10.2N 51.3W and now looks to be going North due west. There is also an apparent vortex in the tropical wave west of 93L.


The persistent WNW motion still hasn't materialized. If this trend last another 6 - 12 hrs, this system will end up much further south than the models indicate.

Quoting 1077. SLU:



The persistent WNW motion still hasn't materialized. If this trend last another 6 - 12 hrs, this system will end up much further south than the models indicate.




It's climbed from 9.5 to almost 11 N since yesterday. That's not west-northwest?
1079. vis0
• CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA via the facilities of Aviationweather*.gov
• IMAGERY TYPE:: created from IR (colour) images** ~created~ by NOAA
• IMAGERY SUBJECT:: Invest 93L off the Antilles Eastern edge/Rim
• IMAGERY PERIOD:: July 30 2014 @2245UTC till July 31 2014 @0845UTC

CLUE:: Tropical formations create an outward flow IF becoming stronger and a linear flow if weakening, now the colourful pebbles follow that rule and add push-pull motion identification...huh?(No one asked questions so you'll have to learn like archaeologist learn of past "breakthroughs" by trying to figure out the past from what was left behind and survived (save the servers).

CLUE:: look for what appears as larger pebbles of floating water droplets in grey as if the lower moisture in gray is pushed upwards through the colourful pebbles EXAMPLES:: look at NW Mexico & the Tropical Low formation furthest to the West  @~10Lat north of the DATE ID words Thu(Thursday) see what looks like a grey bubble rising, notice 93L as i bit but not congealed , if i may use that word, the formation behind 93L also has one, but even less noticeable..

• *(want to say AMweather my fav show as a kid after Lost in Space)

**Enhanced or worsened via my filters (called this type "moisture pebbles" in 1992 as it included only 5 colours. Now its funktopnGal-pebbles (BamBam will be played by Tazbot and instead he'll say "damdam",(its not the curse word but the Hoover version)

• Don't forget for fans of replaying GIFs you can do the same in FireFox & SRIron (Chromium type) by using an APP titled (FFOX) "Smartvideo For Youtube" and tweak settings to buffer at a low percentage (1%) + tick On the replay choices and VIDs on or hosted elsewhere via youtube will replay as if GIFs at 500 to 900% = less loading times for the same quality. (i use low quality 'cause not many see these VIDs besides me)

...back to more serious business of preparing the Antillies for localized flooding ,peace
Looks like 93L is still struggling with moderate wind shear and dry air to the North. It does seem to still have a good circulation though. if it were ever able to fire some convection right over the center, it could get going, but it will probably need to wrap up with some healthy convection before getting to the Windward Islands. From what I have observed over the years, small low level circulations that lack deep convection tend to get disrupted by the Windward Islands as they pass through and open back up into Tropical Waves.
1081. FOREX
Looks like the center is outracing the convection. Not good.
Anyone have a clue what happened to the microwave data for junk low? Maybe they dropped the rubbish rain shower.
Yawn

Quoting 1081. FOREX:

Looks like the center is outracing the convection. Not good.


I agree with what you are saying. It does look like the low level center is racing WNW ahead of the convection. It may be moving to fast, with too much shear and too much dry air to really develop. Unless it slows down, the environment moistens and the shear drops, it may be several days before this thing can develop if it ever does.
Quoting 1081. FOREX:

Looks like the center is outracing the convection. Not good.


Convection is waning again. Not really out racing it so much as it is only in the SE quadrant. It's not even a whole trash low...Just a quarter of a trash wave.
Quoting 1056. FOREX:


10.8N 50.2W


Agreed. Was at work so only got to look at a little imagery. Evident when you use some of the more pronounced skins like rainbow or funktop...
ALL GUIDANCE NOW
PRETTY MUCH ONBOARD INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PASS OVER
NORTHEAST PR SAT EVENING. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0111Z SHOWED A FEW
WIND BARBS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. EXPECT A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG TRACK OF MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION AFFECTING THE LEEWARDS...USVI AND NORTHEAST PR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. RAINS EXPECTED TO REACH ST. CROIX
BY 12Z SAT AND SPREAD OVER THE ERN THIRD OF PR AROUND MIDDAY SAT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. A 6-HR PERIOD OF VERY
INTENSE RAIFNALL APPEARS LIKELY OVR THESE AREAS.
NWS San Juan

Looks like we'll get that much needed rain after all.
looking good! windw. are going to get their rain and its going to be a fish
1089. ncstorm
Good Morning..

this is probably the strongest I have seen UKMET forecast 93L..

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 10.2N 47.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 31.07.2014 10.2N 47.5W WEAK

12UTC 31.07.2014 10.6N 50.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 01.08.2014 11.7N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.08.2014 12.8N 55.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 02.08.2014 14.0N 58.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.08.2014 15.5N 61.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 03.08.2014 17.3N 65.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.08.2014 18.9N 69.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.08.2014 20.7N 72.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.08.2014 22.9N 75.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.08.2014 25.6N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.08.2014 28.4N 77.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.08.2014 31.5N 76.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


then the next wave behind 93L
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 21.9N 74.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 04.08.2014 22.9N 75.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.08.2014 25.6N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.08.2014 28.4N 77.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.08.2014 31.5N 76.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

1090. SLU
Quoting 1078. KoritheMan:



It's climbed from 9.5 to almost 11 N since yesterday. That's not west-northwest?


The center reformed further north yesterday morning. The last 12 hrs has seen a motion no more than 280 degrees on average.
1091. WxLogic
Good Morning
Morning nc

Junk model for a trash low? ;-)
First frames of visible looks like the mostly exposed center generally NW of the convection is near 11ºN
Quoting 247. bappit:

The term "trash wave" seems to have solid etymological precedents. We have fish storms and most fishermen will tell you there are trash fish. Ergo we can have trash fish storms. By extension we can have trash waves since waves are precursors to storms, unless they are trash waves. Logic knows no bounds if used properly. So if someone wants to trash talk a wave I won't stop them.




Well said :) I definitely know about trash fish, so now ... I am more educated on trash waves! LoL. 93L is trying not to be as "trashy" this morning, but the convection is not aligned with circulation at the moment!
Kidding about the model of course! The models have come a long long way and are a valuable tool.

As for the low, convection collapsing quickly. Naked stale swirl in a few hours maybe...
92 was a slow yr june& july were dead nothing you newcomers would of closed your computer tops in frustration. 92 in 1992 most likely would be a td a few days ago because all their toys they got to say it does not have a circulation didnot exist.


805 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N49W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE
LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARGINALLY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. IN
ADDITION...EARLIER EVENING ASCAT PASSES AROUND 31/0022 UTC AND
31/0110 UTC INDICATED A 20 TO 30 KT WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE
LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N30W TO 16N31W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
A BROAD LOW-LEVEL...850 MB-700 MB...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS AN AREA FOCUSED
NEAR A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 09N30N. THE BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY IS NOTED FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 28W-33W. CONVECTION
REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N56W TO 20N58W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N49W. A PORTION OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE HAS FRACTURED TO THE NORTH...LARGELY STRETCHING OF
THE 700 MB TROUGHING...AND IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
21N58W TO 25N56W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA
INDICATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
700 MB TROUGH THAT COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.


NEW low coming off of AFRICAN SOON.
Record Low Temperatures Along the Gulf Coast!

For the 4th time this summer 2014, record low temperatures:

Mobile, AL - 64 degrees
Pensacola, FL - 64 degrees

Crestview, FL - has dropped to 57 degrees! Wow, not sure if that is a record-breaker for that station.

Very chilly for the Gulf Coast. It is interesting to note that hurricanes have made Gulf coastal landfalls in the past, after record-breaking record low temp. episodes. Not saying that will be the case for 2014..... but just had to mention!

then the next wave behind 93L
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 21.9N 74.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 04.08.2014 22.9N 75.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.08.2014 25.6N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.08.2014 28.4N 77.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.08.2014 31.5N 76.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
THE FRIST TIME ON THIS TROPICAL WAVE
12UTC 05.08.2014 28.4N 77.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY that on the east coast
its starting to look like the t.storms and the rain is starting to die out some right now with invest 93L
nhc actually works 92 is mostly on a west course still barbados is the first stop
Good morning.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system located about 650 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands has been producing organized shower
and thunderstorm activity during the past several hours. If this
activity persists, tropical depression or tropical storm advisories
will be initiated later this morning. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today. A Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system located about 650 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands has been producing organized shower
and thunderstorm activity during the past several hours. If this
activity persists, tropical depression or tropical storm advisories
will be initiated later this morning. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today. A Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


UP TO 70%
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 000 ABNT20 KNHC 311131 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A well-defined low pressure system located about 650 miles east of the southern Windward Islands has been producing organized shower and thunderstorm activity during the past several hours. If this activity persists, tropical depression or tropical storm advisories will be initiated later this morning. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be required for some of these islands later today. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Real tropical system...



Trash, junk, rubbish remnant...

1107. FOREX
Quoting 1104. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A well-defined low pressure system located about 650 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands has been producing organized shower
and thunderstorm activity during the past several hours. If this
activity persists, tropical depression or tropical storm advisories
will be initiated later this morning. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today. A Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


UP TO 70%
as convection wanes. figures.
1108. SLU
Strong language on the TWO. 70/70
Does anyone know why the eastern Caribbean Sea is sometimes known as the graveyard of tropical cyclones? If a westward moving tropical wave has not developed east of the Leeward/Windward Islands, it might not get another chance for development until it gets into the western Caribbean Sea. Of course, there are some exceptions.

There was already mention that the Islands and mountains can disrupt storm circulations, but there seems to be more to this. Could it be that storms that are trying to develop (in the eastern Caribbean sea) are inhibited by dry air coming off the landmass of South America?
1110. FOREX
Quoting 1099. hurricanes2018:

then the next wave behind 93L
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 21.9N 74.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 04.08.2014 22.9N 75.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.08.2014 25.6N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.08.2014 28.4N 77.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.08.2014 31.5N 76.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
THE FRIST TIME ON THIS TROPICAL WAVE
out to sea.
1111. ncstorm
Quoting 1092. StormJunkie:

Morning nc

Junk model for a trash low? ;-)


after this is all said and done you may look like the best forecaster on WU or the person sitting front row at the all you can eat buffet eating your specialty of bacon wrapped crow..however I think it will be the latter with a lot of people joining you..Ukmet is not a trash model but you carry on sir with your analysis..I look forward to seeing what happens :)
might need to go through your hurricane list leeward and windw folks
Hey now, I said I was joking about the model. No one model is perfect, but together all of them are a truly impressive forecasting tool and shows just how far we've come over the years.

And I am not a forecaster that is for sure...Regardless of whether I have a nice helping of bacon wrapped crow. lol
1114. WxLogic
Quoting Stormwatch247:
Does anyone know why the eastern Caribbean Sea is sometimes known as the graveyard of tropical cyclones? If a westward moving tropical wave has not developed east of the Leeward/Windward Islands, it might not get another chance for development until it gets into the western Caribbean Sea. Of course, there are some exceptions.

There was already mention that the Islands and mountains can disrupt storm circulations, but there seems to be more to this. Could it be that storms that are trying to develop (in the eastern Caribbean sea) are inhibited by dry air coming off the landmass of South America?


Shear is typically the primary inhibitor in the eastern and central Carib.
1115. WxLogic
Quoting SLU:


The persistent WNW motion still hasn't materialized. If this trend last another 6 - 12 hrs, this system will end up much further south than the models indicate.



So far the Bermuda High has been able to expand a bit further to the W in response to the weakening of the E CONUS TROF.



I'm personally eager to see the skew charts from Gonzo's drops to see how the Bermuda High is performing as compared to what is being forecasted by the models.
I think we will only have 4 or 5 storms this season and they will either all fall apart or hook out to sea.... and not looking foward to 2015 to be much different
1117. PTXer
Quoting 1114. WxLogic:



Shear is typically the primary inhibitor in the eastern and central Carib.


Shear from the Trade Winds....
1118. ncstorm
Quoting 1113. StormJunkie:

Hey now, I said I was joking about the model. No one model is perfect, but together all of them are a truly impressive forecasting tool and shows just how far we've come over the years.

And I am not a forecaster that is for sure...Regardless of whether I have a nice helping of bacon wrapped crow. lol


sorry..didnt mean to imply you were a forecaster..how bout looking like a WU Superstar instead if right :)..and just as easily that coin can be flipped and I am instead having to punch a ticket at the buffet..we'll see though..



13
Disturbance 13 is near 11.3N, 51.1W, or about 575 miles east-southeast of Barbados. Movement is to the west-northwest at 19 mph. The disturbance has a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or a minimal tropical storm prior to reaching the Lesser Antilles late Friday or early Saturday. Only minor impacts are possible for the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The system should dissipate next week as it recurves out to sea.

Courtesy Impact WX
shear forcast going up to high over the next 8 weeks over much of the atlantic and carib i just read
Quoting 1106. StormJunkie:

Real tropical system...



Trash, junk, rubbish remnant...




How about junk low?
93L now back up to 70%
A well-defined low pressure system located about 650 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands has been producing organized shower
and thunderstorm activity during the past several hours. If this
activity persists, tropical depression or tropical storm advisories
will be initiated later this morning. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today. A Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.">
Quoting 1121. StormTrackerScott:


How about junk low?


Hi Scott-

What do you think about Bermuda High's impact on the future storm (93L) once it gets north of PR?
78 with a 77 dewpoint this morning but 25 minutes to my NW the dewpoint in Leesburg is 67. It seems the front is right overhead this morning.
Quoting 1109. Stormwatch247:

Does anyone know why the eastern Caribbean Sea is sometimes known as the graveyard of tropical cyclones? If a westward moving tropical wave has not developed east of the Leeward/Windward Islands, it might not get another chance for development until it gets into the western Caribbean Sea. Of course, there are some exceptions.

There was already mention that the Islands and mountains can disrupt storm circulations, but there seems to be more to this. Could it be that storms that are trying to develop (in the eastern Caribbean sea) are inhibited by dry air coming off the landmass of South America?


Shear, as mentioned above. Because of South America. During the early-mid Summer, it gets hot and pressures lower, and North of that over the Caribbean low level (850 mb) winds can exceed 30 knots, so that even when upper level winds are light, storm relative shear is high. August, September and especially October, the low weakens somewhat and the Easterlies weaken. Later season storms like Gilbert can actually strengthen in the Eastern and Central Caribbean, early season storms like Claudette 2003 can barely survive, a weak system early in the season dies. The winds accelerating East of the islands going into the Caribbean are divergent, also a negative.

Slowing winds in the Western Caribbean reduce that shear, and are also somewhat convergent
Convection is not waning its just suffering from dry air issues, should become better organized later today, probably just as the HH investigate the disturbance. Future 94L east of 93L should be designated later today.
Quoting 1116. momof4girls:

I think we will only have 4 or 5 storms this season and they will either all fall apart or hook out to sea.... and not looking foward to 2015 to be much different
Not even 2013 or El Niño years are capable of producing that low numbers of name storms I doubt this year will produce less.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase near an area of low
pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
forecast to form during the next day or two while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

INVEST 95E
Quoting 1123. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Scott-

What do you think about Bermuda High's impact on the future storm (93L) once it gets north of PR?


My thinking is if 93L intensifies over the next 48hrs then it will turn north toward Bermuda but if 93L stays weak then it will then move WNW and affect the Bahamas & FL as a tropical wave. Here's the reason below notice how this deep trough over the eastern US pinches off across the GULF. Either way it looks very wet in FL the next few weeks.

So you can see here that the path of an "established" system would move north once 93L moves close to the Bahamas.
1132. SLU
Quoting 1115. WxLogic:



So far the Bermuda High has been able to expand a bit further to the W in response to the weakening of the E CONUS TROF.



I'm personally eager to see the skew charts from Gonzo's drops to see how the Bermuda High is performing as compared to what is being forecasted by the models.


Some good logic there.

The axis of the ridge is still further west than 93L which means that it will have a hard time moving WNW consistently today.
Looks as if ricderr will feel some rain drops on his head today. Looks like the monsoon is in full effect.

As long as 93L keeps firing convection/ holding it near the center, then it should be designated as early as 11. Though I think that the NHC might wait till recon flies out.



Better than it looked a few days ago.
It is like 70 to 80% everyday for me
Quoting 1130. StormTrackerScott:



My thinking is if 93L intensifies over the next 48hrs then it will turn north toward Bermuda but if 93L stays weak then it will then move WNW and affect the Bahamas & FL as a tropical wave. Here's the reason below notice how this deep trough over the eastern US pinches off across the GULF. Either way it looks very wet in FL the next few weeks.

So you can see here that the path of an "established" system would move north once 93L moves close to the Bahamas.

Long range GFS shows a very hostile environment across basically the entire Atlantic Basin. Now that we are going into August its now when you would expect things to change across the Atlantic and they don't appear to be at all.
Quoting 1127. allancalderini:

Not even 2013 or El Niño years are capable of producing that low numbers of name storms I doubt this year will produce less.


4 or 5 named storms a year happened some years during the cold AMO. The internet becoming big and 1995 happening and the warm AMO, well, the WU blogs could see wailing and gnashing of teeth if the AMO is ending a few years earlier than expected.

6 named storms in 1982, only 2 hurricanes. 4 named storms (including the last major hurricane to landfall in the NWS HGX CWA, or Houston doesn't get many majors, even if 1900 was famous) in the 1983 Nino year.

4 or 6 storms a year. Yes, it has happened before.
Quoting 1130. StormTrackerScott:


My thinking is if 93L intensifies over the next 48hrs then it will turn north toward Bermuda but if 93L stays weak then it will then move WNW and affect the Bahamas & FL as a tropical wave. Here's the reason below notice how this deep trough over the eastern US pinches off across the GULF. Either way it looks very wet in FL the next few weeks.

So you can see here that the path of an "established" system would move north once 93L moves close to the Bahamas.


Thanks.
with the currnet pattern in the atlantic 94 doesnt stand a chance either and will most liklely fizzle and follow where ever 93 goes ... probably ots
Quoting 1135. SFLWeatherman:

It is like 70 to 80% everyday for me



Yeah notice the southerly flow at 500mb pushing PWAT's near 2.5" across the FL Penisula come Sunday thru early next week.

Quoting 1122. SFLWeatherman:

93L now back up to 70%
A well-defined low pressure system located about 650 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands has been producing organized shower
and thunderstorm activity during the past several hours. If this
activity persists, tropical depression or tropical storm advisories
will be initiated later this morning. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this disturbance as it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and watches or warnings may be
required for some of these islands later today. A Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.">



Plzs see post 1103 1104 and 1105 why do you guys like spaming the blog with the two it olny needs two be posted once if any needs two go read it then they can go two the nhc site other then reposting the two and spaming the blog at the same time all so we dont need two see the 1st pags of the comments hafe filled on one page with the nhc twos i think the mods sould have a rule on how many times the two is allowed two be posted so that way it dos not file up hafe the blog page with not but twos i like two come here and read comments when am and about and not two find the blog filled up with twos why trying two get updated on whats been going on
Quoting 1109. Stormwatch247:

Does anyone know why the eastern Caribbean Sea is sometimes known as the graveyard of tropical cyclones? If a westward moving tropical wave has not developed east of the Leeward/Windward Islands, it might not get another chance for development until it gets into the western Caribbean Sea. Of course, there are some exceptions.

There was already mention that the Islands and mountains can disrupt storm circulations, but there seems to be more to this. Could it be that storms that are trying to develop (in the eastern Caribbean sea) are inhibited by dry air coming off the landmass of South America?


Stronger easterly trade winds in that area. If a storm has not developed nicely before it gets into the eastern Caribbean then it has a harder time spinning up.
70% now 40% later 80% tonight 30% tommorow back to 60% tommorow afternoon etc etc ... bottom line nothing will happen


wind shear on invest 93L right now its coming from the northwest
CFSv2 enso plume is showing nino 3.4 crossing the 1.5 threshold come January with some ensembles nearing 2.5 now.




Looks very wet across FL in January. Also looks wet across California.
Most storms that form near the Cape Verde islands will fish/miss. The long tracked storms (1900, 1938, Donna, Ike, for example) that cross the entire ocean to reach the US are well remembered, but they are rather rare.
Quoting 1134. JrWeathermanFL:

As long as 93L keeps firing convection/ holding it near the center, then it should be designated as early as 11. Though I think that the NHC might wait till recon flies out.



Better than it looked a few days ago.
They usually wait for recon but I remember in 2012 they did designate the td that would become Sandy before flying.
1148. WxLogic
Quoting SLU:


Some good logic there.

The axis of the ridge is still further west than 93L which means that it will have a hard time moving WNW consistently today.


I agree as long as it remains weak... if it intensifies then we know what will happen:



WNW to NW it goes...
Quoting 1136. StormTrackerScott:

Long range GFS shows a very hostile environment across basically the entire Atlantic Basin. Now that we are going into August its now when you would expect things to change across the Atlantic and they don't appear to be at all.


If that ture then if 93L fails we will still have 1 storm
Quoting 1136. StormTrackerScott:

Long range GFS shows a very hostile environment across basically the entire Atlantic Basin. Now that we are going into August its now when you would expect things to change across the Atlantic and they don't appear to be at all.
I love that news!! no more storms going to hit the east coast this year.
hmm from what I see it at 11N 51.2W movement is N of due W now looking at the loop it seems to have made it to 11N when it was near 50W and by appearance in the loop it has very little N movement if any at all at the moment now I would need a few more visible daylight images to confirm my finding but so far seems correct
From NOAA
CV storms are actually pretty rare (average of only 2 per season).

Here's the info from the NOAA page about CV storms.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Cape Verde-type hurricanes are those Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that develop into tropical storms fairly close (600 miles, or less than 1,000 km) to the Cape Verde Islands and then become hurricanes before reaching the Caribbean. This type of storm typically occurs in August and September, but in rare years there may be some in late July or early October. The number of this type of storm ranges from none up to five per year - with an average of around two.
Quoting 1150. hurricanes2018:

I love that news!! no more storms going to hit the east coast this year.


Easy there killer models can change many times out in the long range but as of the last run conditions don't look good for the Atlantic the next 2 weeks.
Quoting 1150. hurricanes2018:

I love that news!! no more storms going to hit the east coast this year.
are you agreeing with my post # 1120 ? this is what i said in post 1120....
shear forcast going up to high over the next 8 weeks over much of the atlantic and carib i just read
Quoting 1115. WxLogic:


So far the Bermuda High has been able to expand a bit further to the W in response to the weakening of the E CONUS TROF.



I'm personally eager to see the skew charts from Gonzo's drops to see how the Bermuda High is performing as compared to what is being forecasted by the models.


Local weather here in Florence, SC: Quite a bit warmer and more humid than yesterday morning's run before work. More typical summer airmass is returning ahead of schedule. Forecasting rain tonight/tomorrow.

We'll see how far westward the Bermuda High reaches. It should be interesting.
Quoting 1136. StormTrackerScott:

Long range GFS shows a very hostile environment across basically the entire Atlantic Basin. Now that we are going into August its now when you would expect things to change across the Atlantic and they don't appear to be at all.
are you agreeing with my post # 1120 ? this is what i said in post 1120....
shear forcast going up to high over the next 8 weeks over much of the atlantic and carib i just read
Quoting 1153. StormTrackerScott:



Easy there killer models can change many times out in the long range but as of the last run conditions don't look good for the Atlantic the next 2 weeks.
game over this year its all over before it even got started
Here's the Euro

Not much to add to the current discussion in the wake of the latest NHC Statement except to note that 93L gets an "A" for persistence; this is the best firing of convection that we have seen over the past 24 hours. It looked totally anemic yesterday but trying hard to build some moisture, and build some t-storm cover, over the coc that was quite exposed to dry air yesterday. So pending Dr. Masters take, and recon later that will give us the best local picture out there, here are my basic pros/cons based on current observation:

Pros:
Building some convection closer to the coc but not quite there yet;
A little more distance (but not much) from the dry air/sal out ahead of the invest (wv loop).

Cons:
Still exposed on the Northern side of the circulation (vis shot)
If pressure drops over the next 48, and banding features start to emerge, dry air is going to get entrained into the circulation
Still travelling too fast at the moment (15-20 mph) to stack up properly; it needs to slow down.

Looking forward to see what the Hunters find; I am sure that they will verify the strong llc but may not be able to close it off if they arrive during a waning or struggling period (only to watch it ramp up again a few hours later after they leave).
Quoting 1156. momof4girls:

are you agreeing with my post # 1120 ? this is what i said in post 1120....
shear forcast going up to high over the next 8 weeks over much of the atlantic and carib i just read


It looks that way but again things can change fast as we near the Peak of the season. Sometimes its like a switch is turned on and then you have 4 storms on your hand when just a week earlier there were none.
Quoting 1153. StormTrackerScott:


Easy there killer models can change many times out in the long range but as of the last run conditions don't look good for the Atlantic the next 2 weeks.


Well said. 10 days ago everyone thought we wouldn't see any action until mid August.

2014 is a year much uncertainty. I'm expecting the unexpected. Many blog eyes on the CV storms but I'm more concerned about what may pop up closer to CONUS.

Always appreciate your comments.
The reason why some models are increasing the strength on this upcoming El-Nino is the fact that there is now a "NEW" subsurface warm pool organizing and spreading east. This is something that did NOT occur in 2012.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm from what I see it at 11N 51.2W movement is N of due W now looking at the loop it seems to have made it to 11N when it was near 50W and by appearance in the loop it has very little N movement if any at all at the moment now I would need a few more visible daylight images to confirm my finding but so far seems correct


We should see a transition to a more WNW movement today and especially as 93L gets closer to 55 west longitude. The main focus of the "pull" to the north is west of 55 west longitude.

Tropical Atlantic shows 284 degrees for the past 6 hours and 285 degrees for the past 12 hours. So 93L is moving WNW.

WNW or 284 degrees at 16.3 knots
(18.7 mph | 30.1 km/h)
The long dry road to the Antilles:
Compare to the E-Pac ITCZ; that is what a lack of Sal (which does not reach the E-Pac) will do for you:



Seems to be a pretty good model consensus on where 93L is going. The question is how strong will 93L be as it goes through the Islands.
Quoting 1121. StormTrackerScott:



How about junk low?


Yeah, remnant may have been exaggerating a bit. ;-)
1168. ncstorm

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Dr air continues to limit 93L development, though winds to TS force are with system. Loop to watch http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/flash -vis-short.html …
Quoting 1168. ncstorm:


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Dr air continues to limit 93L development, though winds to TS force are with system. Loop to watch http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/flash -vis-short.html …


I sure hope he lives through his adventure with the rubbish cloud! Or did he cancel the trip?
Quoting 1150. hurricanes2018:

I love that news!! no more storms going to hit the east coast this year.

you are so gullible :)
The dry air should keep the system in check as it rolls into the Antilles unless we see a remarkable burst before it gets there that mixes out all the dry air with a well-insulated core.  That would be good for the Antilles that needs the rain but not excessive wind-speeds.
nrti, you around yet? I'll have my bacon wrapped crow. Think 93 has done just enough that they will fly today.

Any idea why we have a red slate on microwave data?
Quoting 1144. hurricanes2018:



wind shear on invest 93L right now its coming from the northwest
not looking good
Hi Scott, hope we get a weak Nino this winter, I just hope your winter forecast turns out better than your summer forecast. We need something to change the atmosphere in the MDR, all this dry air is getting a little boring. Looks like the High is building in and pushing the trough back to the west so if a storm would form it would be a greater threat to the Eastern Gulf and Florida up to the Carolinas.
ALERT ATCF MIL 93X XXX 140731060000
2014073106
10.8 310.5
12.9 304.4
100
10.8 310.5
310700
1407310700
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT //
WTNT21 KNGU 310700
REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/310700Z JUL 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 310700)//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 49.5W TO 12.9N 55.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA, AND RADAR DATA AT 310700Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 49.5W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION
OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE LOCATION
IS APPROXIMATELY 594NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING MORE DEFINED AND DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE ALSO INDICATES INCREASED UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES WILL
ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 010700Z.//
9314072706 104N 264W 20
9314072712 104N 276W 20
9314072718 103N 288W 20
9314072800 102N 300W 20
9314072806 101N 313W 20
9314072812 99N 325W 20
9314072818 97N 339W 20
9314072900 96N 355W 25
9314072906 96N 371W 30
9314072912 95N 386W 30
9314072918 95N 401W 30
9314073000 96N 415W 30
9314073006 97N 430W 30
9314073012 98N 447W 30
9314073018 100N 464W 30
9314073100 104N 479W 30
9314073106 108N 495W 30

Quoting 1172. StormJunkie:

nrti, you around yet? I'll have my bacon wrapped crow. Think 93 has done just enough that they will fly today.

Any idea why we have a red slate on microwave data?


Just started looking at things and first impression was they would not fly today, naked exposed swirl. Microwave may be due to:

*DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE:* **ESPC WAS INFORMED BY THE SOCC POES
CONTROLLER THAT N-18 GAC 4A REV 47380 WAS LOST TO A ANTENNA FAILURE AT
THE WALLOPS CDA. (CORRECTION)


Link


that wind shear hitting invest 93L RIGHT NOW
Omg wow this came out


1180. SLU
At 1200 UTC, 31 July 2014, LOW INVEST (AL93) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 11.0°N and 51.4°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 17 kt at a bearing of 285 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb.
10.8N 49.5W. ; That position fix (as noted below in the Alert) seems a little odd to me.  They are fixing the coc well to the East of the visible circulation and and the heaviest convection (which would actually be better for the storm).  But what do I know; I am only a Wannabe.  Recon will give us the real skinny later today.
T.C.F.A
93L/INV/XX/XX
Quoting 1179. Tazmanian:
Omg wow this came out




They can sure use El Nino.
1185. 62901IL
Did anyone like sharknado 2?
1186. Grothar


Quoting 1176. nrtiwlnvragn:



Just started looking at things and first impression was they would not fly today, naked exposed swirl. Microwave may be due to:

*DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE:* **ESPC WAS INFORMED BY THE SOCC POES
CONTROLLER THAT N-18 GAC 4A REV 47380 WAS LOST TO A ANTENNA FAILURE AT
THE WALLOPS CDA. (CORRECTION)


Link


Well it will be a close call either way. lol.

Had a hard time translating all that tech talk...Thank goodness for Google! Wallops CDA
1188. SLU




That is trash crow SLU...Mine has to be bacon wrapped.
I will be real curious to see where the Hunters actually locate a potential coc later today:

Quoting 1185. 62901IL:
Did anyone like sharknado 2?


Shhhhhhh. Don't talk about it as I will watch it Saturday. 8-)
Quoting 1190. weathermanwannabe:

I will be real curious to see where the Hunters actually locate a potential coc later today:



If it is not the naked swirl in front of the convection I will be surprised. I will join SJ with his bacon wrapped crow.
Quoting 1186. Grothar:




Hi Grothar:
At least the storm will give much needed relief to the East carib.
Must be a very strong circulation as it is sucking in moisture all the way from E. Pacific. I think we'll see it at TS status by 3 pm.
1195. Grothar
Quoting 1189. StormJunkie:

That is trash crow SLU...Mine has to be bacon wrapped.


Get it fast. I heard Costco and Sam's Club are running out of supplies fast.
Quoting 1141. Tazmanian:



Plzs see post 1103 1104 and 1105 why do you guys like spaming the blog with the two it olny needs two be posted once if any needs two go read it then they can go two the nhc site other then reposting the two and spaming the blog at the same time all so we dont need two see the 1st pags of the comments hafe filled on one page with the nhc twos i think the mods sould have a rule on how many times the two is allowed two be posted so that way it dos not file up hafe the blog page with not but twos i like two come here and read comments when am and about and not two find the blog filled up with twos why trying two get updated on whats been going on


Please dont SPAM the blog by talking about SPAM on the blog. ;)
Quoting 1195. Grothar:



Get it fast. I heard Costco and Sam's Club are running out of supplies fast.

Always better to buy it in bulk.
Goes without saying (hopefully) that tomorrows model runs will give us a better picture of where the storm might be going after they feed in the Hunter coc fixes from later today; however, NHC will give us the current model consensus track average later today if a depression is declared and will nudge the track accordingly between today and tomorrow, and from then on towards the weekend as new fixes come in from future flights.
1199. Grothar
Quoting 1182. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T.C.F.A
93L/INV/XX/XX



Glad to see you back, KEEP!. We missed you.
Quoting 1157. momof4girls:

game over this year its all over before it even got started



Really, So glad we can all rest assured now. Thank you for your expertise in the Tropics.
Who needs the NHC when we have such Tropical knowledge spewing from you lol
Found this beauty in Charleston NWS disco last evening. Was tempted to mention something on air, but chickened out. LOL !!

000
FXUS62 KCHS 310123
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
923 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH A
ZERO PERCENT CHANCE FOR A ROUGE SHARKNADO...FINGERS CROSSED.

1202. SLU
I stuck to my guns from day one about 93L not becoming a significant storm and not going north of the Caribbean in light of heavy criticism and computer models saying the complete opposite. Today the models have made a big shift and I may be proven right. Experience and knowledge should not be thrown out the window for computer generated spaghetti plots that can provide good guidance but sometimes can be more of a lottery than reality.

Quoting 1201. Chucktown:

Found this beauty in Charleston NWS disco last evening. Was tempted to mention something on air, but chickened out. LOL !!

000
FXUS62 KCHS 310123
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
923 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH A
ZERO PERCENT CHANCE FOR A ROUGE SHARKNADO...FINGERS CROSSED.




lmao...Those folks are the best!
Quoting 1201. Chucktown:
Found this beauty in Charleston NWS disco last evening. Was tempted to mention something on air, but chickened out. LOL !!

000
FXUS62 KCHS 310123
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
923 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH A
ZERO PERCENT CHANCE FOR A ROUGE SHARKNADO...FINGERS CROSSED.



lol...thanks for sharing.

Humidity returning down there this morning? It's coming back over Pee Dee this morning.
Quoting 1199. Grothar:



Glad to see you back, KEEP!. We missed you.
I've been around watching
this 93l has 18 to 21 hrs to do something
if anything should start looking better and better soon
Quoting 1196. WDEmobmet:



Please dont SPAM the blog by talking about SPAM on the blog. ;)


Oh, this gives me a great idea...

Spam low...

that wind shear hitting invest 93L RIGHT NOW
If a depression is declared today (sooner than later closer to the Antilles sometime tomorrow), logic dictates that the storm should start moving towards pole earlier and potentially miss the Greater Antilles......It will ultimately depend on intensity (weak or stronger) and the day to day variation of the A-B high ridging as to whether this might end up as a fish but the Lesser Antilles are not out of the woods yet. Will check back later around lunchtime and Dr. Master's take.
1211. SLU
1212. Grothar
Quoting 1193. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Grothar:
At least the storm will give much needed relief to the East carib.


They need it badly. They are in a drought situation. We do not need it in Florida.
1213. GatorWX
Morning.

I see 93L survived the night, barely. Looks pretty sloppy. Not sure I want to invest any time with it like I foolishly did last night. Seemed good at that particular time. I'll check in periodically, but unless something drastic happens, seems rather fruitless to stare at that. The wave behind it looks considerably worse as well.

Have a good day everyone.
1214. fmbill
Quoting 1210. weathermanwannabe:

If a depression is declared today (sooner than later closer to the Antilles sometime tomorrow), logic dictates that the storm should start moving towards pole earlier and potentially miss the Islands......It will ultimately depend on intensity (weak or stronger) and the day to day variation of the A-B high ridging as to whether this might end up as a fish. Will check back later around lunchtime and Dr. Master's take.

If NHC does start issuing advisories on this system, the initial track will most likely follow the consensus model, TVCN.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1214. fmbill:


If NHC does start issuing advisories on this system, the initial track will most likely follow the consensus model, TVCN.


I modified my comment (after you quoted this one) to make a distinction between the Greater Antilles and Lesser Antilles based on the current models but you are correct........................
1217. 19N81W
It's dead which is great now bring the rain no hurricanes 2 hurricanes this year one late September one mid October
Wow those models took a significant shift to the east
1219. Grothar
Quoting 1206. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I've been around watching
this 93l has 18 to 21 hrs to do something
if anything should start looking better and better soon


Yes. I wrote last night it has a small window of opportunity to develop. It does seem, however, that the models are a little more aggressive than they have been in the past two days. Since 93L will be in a different position than had been anticipated, the atmosphere will be different than had been anticipated. It will be interesting to see what conditions will be like and the steering currents.
Straight from the horse's mouth:

Natl Hurricane Ctr ‏@NHC_Atlantic 2m
NHC will not start advisories on Atlantic disturbance this morning. Thunderstorm activity too limited.
Expand
1221. Grothar
Not a drop is expected here...



Disappointing :/