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93L Fighting Dry Air, But Could be a Tropical Depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:47 PM GMT on July 31, 2014

An area of disturbed weather located near 11°N, 52°W at 8 am EDT Thursday, about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands (93L), has maintained a well-organized surface circulation and has now developed enough heavy thunderstorms to potentially be classified as a tropical depression later today. Visible satellite loops on Thursday morning showed that the surface circulation of 93L was exposed to view, with a modest clump of heavy thunderstorms on the south side. The storm was fighting moderate wind shear of about 15 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the north. These winds were driving dry air to the north of 93L into the circulation, keeping heavy thunderstorms from forming on the north side. An ASCAT pass at 9:11 pm EDT Wednesday night showed top surface winds near 35 mph, just below tropical storm-force. Water vapor satellite loops and the Saharan Air Layer analysis showed that a large amount of dry air lay to the north and west of 93L. Ocean temperatures were about 28°C, which is 2°C warmer than the typical 26°C threshold for development. An Air Force C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate 93L on Thursday afternoon, and the NOAA Gulfstream IV jet is scheduled to fly a dropsonde mission on Thursday afternoon around the storm.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 93L.

Forecast for 93L
Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is expected to affect 93L for the next five days, according to the 12 UTC Thursday forecast from the SHIPS model. With the atmosphere around 93L now quite dry, the storm will have to work hard to insulate itself from disruptive dry air incursions. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will stay roughly constant at 28°C. The models agree that 93L will arrive in the northeast Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday evening, move over Puerto Rico on Saturday evening, and approach the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Sunday evening. Our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS, European, and UKMET models, predicted in their 00Z Thursday runs that 93L would be no stronger than a 40 mph tropical storm as it passed through the islands, and then dissipate early next week near the Southeast Bahama Islands. The GFDL and HWRF models predicted in their 06Z Thursday runs that 93L would be a weak tropical storm as it passed through the islands, intensify some after passing over Puerto Rico on Saturday night, but turn to the north, missing the Bahamas. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 2-day and 5-day odds of development at 70%. The Thursday morning runs of our top four models for predicting intensity, the LGEM, DSHIPS, GFDL, and HWRF models, predicted that 93L would have top sustained winds between 40 - 55 mph on Friday - Saturday as it affects the Lesser Antilles Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. I predict that 93L will continue to struggle with dry air as it passes through the islands on Friday and Saturday, with top sustained winds between 35 - 50 mph.

The GFS and European models continue to agree on the long-range fate of 93L. The great majority of the 20 members of the 00Z Thursday runs of the European and GFS ensemble models (which run at low resolution 20 times with slightly different initial conditions to show a range of possible outcomes) showed 93L taking a northwesterly track early next week in response to a strong trough of low pressure over the Eastern United States, then recurving to the north without hitting the mainland U.S. coast.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. sar2401
Quoting beell:
It's good to see consistency.

If this was a TD 02:



Then this is obviously a TS:





It's that red thing...:-)

Quoting 992. beell:

It's good to see consistency.

If this was a TD 02:



Then this is obviously a TS:






The difference is on TD2 they did not have a confirmed closed off circulation from the HHs
1003. 882MB
Quoting 770. 882MB:

Good evening everyone, I have a really good feeling this will be named at 11:00 PM , NHC said if there was an increase in thunderstorm activity this will be upgraded, remember guys this system already has 40 to 45 MPH winds, and I see convection increasing mostly on the eastern side, but new flare ups are popping up on the western side, small ones, but they look to be growing in size. These systems always increase in organization, when they reach between 55 and 60 WEST, as i seen in past years on Invests or depressions. I will be watching satellite imagery during the next hour, but if not mistaken I really think this will be Bertha at 11pm. My opinion, let's see guys we really need this drought buster.


I was right, I give myself some credit, lol. Now we under a Tropical storm watch here in PR, come on droughtbuster, bring it on!!!!!!
Well, the NHC finally did it. Thanks!
Quoting 993. WeatherNerdPR:


And then the Eastern Caribbean dead zone kills them.
It actually doesn't look that bad in that image. But it still has the satellite presentation of a potato in almost every other infrared filter.


Actually the dead zone is more of a threat to a wave that is trying to develop than a classified system that enters the Eastern Caribbean. The track that Bertha is on is not the worst area to traverse. The Southern route just N of the South American continent where the dry air gets sucked in from the land and the trades are screaming along is far worse than the WNW course Bertha is maintaining.
1006. AztecCe
Quoting 991. DeepSeaRising:

Bertha is not ugly, clear TS winds of 45-50mph, great organization for days but dry air stopped strong convection. This will miss the high mountainous regions and enter the Southern Bahamas as a 50mph TS and threaten the OB as a borderline hurricane. Could even go further West. Should be interesting what the models show.

I'm gonna pull a Consuela on you.

Nooo.... No....noooo hurricane nooooo
1007. 7544
Quoting 991. DeepSeaRising:

Bertha is not ugly, clear TS winds of 45-50mph, great organization for days but dry air stopped strong convection. This will miss the high mountainous regions and enter the Southern Bahamas as a 50mph TS and threaten the OB as a borderline hurricane. Could even go further West. Should be interesting what the models show.


and notuce the nhc doesnt kill it but keeps as a ts for the whole cone could get rather interesting if it heads to the bahamas imo
Quoting 981. beell:

Damned if they do, damned if they don't.
Every single time.... wait'll the morning shift gets in here.... lol ...
Quoting 990. HurriHistory:

What's taking so long is that there is nothing to talk about worth putting in a discussion. With a sick looking system like this? Come on. What are you guys expecting to read about anyway.
This:
After the cyclone
clears land, some slight re-strengthening is possible based on the
SHIPS model indicating that the vertical shear decreasing to less
than 10 kt and SSTs increasing to near 29C
.

I'm not liking this "possible strengthening as it approaches the TCI bit. Anybody else feeling shades of Irene here?
Quoting 975. allancalderini:

Washi this one is fugly. This need to be on the record of the worst in your list or is still Danny ? XD
This takes the list as the ugliest now.I didn't think Danny could be replaced.I'am off to bed now.I'll see if this still exist in the morning.
I just don't get it but ok we have Bertha I think????
Quoting 1001. sar2401:

It's that red thing...:-)



Taco :o)
1011. beell
Quoting 991. DeepSeaRising:

Bertha is not ugly, clear TS winds of 45-50mph, great organization for days but dry air stopped strong convection. This will miss the high mountainous regions and enter the Southern Bahamas as a 50mph TS and threaten the OB as a borderline hurricane. Could even go further West. Should be interesting what the models show.


More west-ish based on a bit of mental contouring of the 850 mb heights returned by "Gonzo".


850 mb heights returned from today's NOAA Dropsonde mission (click for larger image)

Tiny rubbish white dot in trash Bertha's junk convection.

1013. cg2916
They seem to be pretty cautious with the intensity forecast. It may end up being a bit too low but I mostly agree.
That's it for me this evening. See you all tomorrow

Good night folks
Quoting 932. Grothar:

I'm not in the cone



Me either....
Quoting 941. Astrometeor:



Yea, I know. :( That's what I get for reading 200 posts and then commenting. Oh well, I'll take my crow. (won't eat it, I'll donate it to charity) ;) Hope poor old Gro enjoys it.

On Bertha, don't think it should be labelled. Doesn't meet the definition. If I was a conspiracy theorist, I'd say they are trying to make their numbers work, but whatever.


To add, lemme just get a real conspiracy theorist:

Quoting 967. Jelloboy:



First, the advisory says windows NEAR 45mph. Also all the global warming alarmists get a little bent out of shape when we're supposed to all be drowning in hurricanes and we go through normal year after normal year. The named storm count has been heavily inflated in the 5 years in particular. Perhaps this spins up tonight, however in the past they'd actual wait for that to happen to name storms - perhaps using that old TD tag that is rarely used today.


"normal year after normal year". Define normal. You can't. It's subjective. And we don't have a normal to compare to. I said a similar thing when a troll brought up the "AGW meant drowning in hurricanes." Not enough data to state definitively one way or the other, buddy. Some other reasons, as well, but you can read comment #283 here.
1018. Grothar
Unconfirmed report of large purchases of crow and rasberry sauce.
Quoting 997. yankees440:



Man I must sound like such an "idiot"
Nah.... I know so much about it because I had to look it up last week.... had a vague sailing related idea of "lee", but that was about it ....
Quoting 1000. beell:

Interesting.

...However, the cyclone will be moving over increasing SSTs and within an
upper-level atmosphere that is slightly cooler than normal. The
resultant increase in instability...

So this is the impact of the upper air data.... maybe?
Quoting 1007. 7544:



and notuce the nhc doesnt kill it but keeps as a ts for the whole cone could get rather interesting if it heads to the bahamas imo

Yes this is troubling. If this moves ever so much more Westward then the OB Northward will be in play and will be dealing with hurricane Bertha. Way to early to say, but game is on.
1021. Gearsts
Quoting 1018. Grothar:

Unconfirmed report of large purchases of crow and rasberry sauce.
lol
1022. sar2401
Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Bertha is not ugly, clear TS winds of 45-50mph, great organization for days but dry air stopped strong convection. This will miss the high mountainous regions and enter the Southern Bahamas as a 50mph TS and threaten the OB as a borderline hurricane. Could even go further West. Should be interesting what the models show.
Could come up Mobile Bay as a borderline hurricane and get me too. I'm willing to believe anything is possible now. It's like Jose met some TS slut and spawned Bertha. :-)
1023. AztecCe
Is there any way Bertha can end up doing what Issac did? Because this cone and intensity forecast reminds me a lot of Issac.
Quoting 1009. washingtonian115:

This takes the list as the ugliest now.I didn't think Danny could be replaced.I'am off to bed now.I'll see if this still exist in the morning.
Never say never girl. Sleep well.
Good job Bertha! You never gave up. You never gave up even with all of the dry, stable air and all of the downcasters that said you wouldn't make it. I believed in you... :)
We get mad at NHC for not calling this a TD/TS
NHC waits until we're mad at them for calling this a TS.

Gee thanks NHC. We know you read this. XP

We need a WunderNHC..
1027. MahFL
Holy cow !

Quoting 1018. Grothar:

Unconfirmed report of large purchases of crow and rasberry sauce.


I decided to be courteous and ship some of mine to you, Grothar. Keep being such a good mentor and I'll send some more!
Quoting 1018. Grothar:

Unconfirmed report of large purchases of crow and rasberry sauce.
I guess they ran out of the bacon-wrapped ones...
1030. sar2401
Quoting LBAR:
The NHC has to meet its quota, so Bertha it is. It's kind of like cops having ticket quotas they have to meet. We all know it's true, yet they still deny it. The NHC works for the Federal government. The Federal government, right now, and many in the media, is controlled by global warming worshipers who believe it's man-made (or at least pretend they believe that's the reason). If more "tropical storms" and "hurricanes" are counted, they can push the panic button and say, "WE TOLD YOU THERE'D BE MORE HURRICANES!!" Then they can begin to dismantle...even more...capitalism in the name of saving the planet. It's a brilliant plan, I'll admit, but they're meeting more resistance than they expected. I hope.
The scary part is that I think you're serious...
1031. GatorWX
Quoting 980. Naga5000:



There is no correlation between storm frequency and AGW. That is a straw man argument created by deniers of science. The storm meets the requirements as laid out by the NHC. Take the conspiracy nonsense elsewhere.


I was waiting for it... You pounce so effortlessly. :)
1032. MahFL
Oh straight to TS Bertha.
Quoting 992. beell:

It's good to see consistency.

If this was a TD 02:



Then this is obviously a TS:







...and this is an invest.

1034. sar2401
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
Good job Bertha! You never gave up. You never gave up even with all of the dry, stable air and all of the downcasters that said you wouldn't make it. I believed in you... :)
Do you think tropical storms are sentient beings?
Quoting 1022. sar2401:

Could come up Mobile Bay as a borderline hurricane and get me too. I'm willing to believe anything is possible now. It's like Jose met some TS slut and spawned Bertha. :-)


Sar come on now, no rain for you! Chance of reaching the Gulf 1%. Chance of OB Northward 25%. Chance of dying after landfall 25%. Chance of fishing 49%. Chance of me knowing what I'm talking about 0%.
1036. beell
LOL, TA. The set is not complete w/o that one!
Quoting 1032. MahFL:

Oh straight to TS Bertha.
Yeah... they found 40kt winds earlier today.... were just waiting to see some "tall" convection to name it, it seems...
I'm going to bed, and I expect Bertha to be gone in the morning. 5AM discussion probably will be like

"We have no idea what Forecaster Stewart was thinking here. Don looked better while over Texas. And why would this storm survive Hispanola while fluctuating between 40-50mph winds for 5 days? Therefore we have downgraded Stewart to unemployed.
Oh and also Bertha to a remnant low"
Well now that it's been designated i'd better get to bed now, 4:45 am here.
Night all!
The NHC is not boosting numbers because they're part of the govt. They found TS strength winds and all they needed is some convection. There was convection and boom, there is a storm. I am honestly not super surprised they named it. They pretty much alluded to the fact that if there was any burst in convection they'd name it. It may not be the prettiest Tropical Storm, but hey... we got one now.
Quoting 1034. sar2401:

Do you think tropical storms are sentient beings?
Yeap! ;)
Anybody heard from PensacolaDoug??? I miss that 'ole cow tipper.
1043. Grothar
Quoting Grothar:
Unconfirmed report of large purchases of crow and rasberry sauce.


And bacon I hope? Nothing like bacon wrapped crow after a long night with a trashy Bertha.
1045. Gearsts
Quoting beell:
Interesting.

...However, the cyclone will be moving over increasing SSTs and within an
upper-level atmosphere that is slightly cooler than normal. The
resultant increase in instability...
So's the rest of it...
"(increase in instability) could allow for some slight strengthening to occur before Bertha interacts with Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola in about 48 hours or so. After the cyclone clears land, some slight re-strengthening is possible based on the SHIPS model indicating that the vertical shear decreasing to less than 10 kt and SSTs increasing to near 29C."
Quoting 1038. JrWeathermanFL:

I'm going to bed, and I expect Bertha to be gone in the morning. 5AM discussion probably will be like

"We have no idea what Forecaster Stewart was thinking here. Don looked better while over Texas. And why would this storm survive Hispanola while fluctuating between 40-50mph winds for 5 days? Therefore we have downgraded Stewart to unemployed.
Oh and also Bertha to a remnant low"
OH, you think so? Well, guess what; war vet, baby.... they'll hold on to Bertha for 48 and then "dissipate"....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...and this is an invest.



I know what it said in the discussion, but seems the only reason they named it was to warn the islands
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART


Tropical BERTA Aviso Publico

I like this XD
Quoting BahaHurican:
I guess they ran out of the bacon-wrapped ones...


Argghhhh!!! Nooooooooo!!! Guess everyone flocked to the store when rubbish low turned in to junk Bertha.
Looks like it's covering up the swirl now. Assuming it doesn't suck in a bunch of dry air/pulls a Chris, it should be better looking in the morning.
1052. sar2401
Quoting ZacWeatherKidUK:
Well now that it's been designated i'd better get to bed now, 4:45 am here.
Night all!
GN, Zak. You might be in the cone when you wake up. :-)
Stewart might be onto something with that discussion.

I asked SouthALWX if he would pick me up to chase Bertha in the event it hits the US. I have six days off from now through Wednesday.

Eager to see what he says.
Quoting 1033. TropicalAnalystwx13:


...and this is an invest.


For what is worth it looks like is more important having a defined center than organized convection. Because as an invest it had a lot of convection but not good Convection meanwhile as a ts is the opposite. Imo in that pic it was a td.
1056. GatorWX
Quoting 1038. JrWeathermanFL:

I'm going to bed, and I expect Bertha to be gone in the morning. 5AM discussion probably will be like

"We have no idea what Forecaster Stewart was thinking here. Don looked better while over Texas. And why would this storm survive Hispanola while fluctuating between 40-50mph winds for 5 days? Therefore we have downgraded Stewart to unemployed.
Oh and also Bertha to a remnant low"


I'm pretty sure it's not a single person making the judgement calls for the NHC. Not trying to call you out, just see this posted a lot. I know you realize this, just saying.
I bet 93L drove staff at the NHC to drinking, and, in a stupor, they said "screw it" and named it Bertha. Even though Bertha looked closest to anything remotely like a tropical storm when it was first an orange X.

Well hey, props to the naked swirl for at least putting on some undergarments. It has gusto. Now we see what happens next.
1058. MahFL
The question is, how many hours will the burst last ?
Quoting 1039. ZacWeatherKidUK:

Well now that it's been designated i'd better get to bed now, 4:45 am here.
Night all!
Zac, mon ange, you inspire me to heights of imprudence .... I really would love to stay up that late here tonight, but got a 9:30 meeting, so I'm going to have to cut back to 2 a.m.

I tell u this storm watching is addictive...
Quoting 1045. Gearsts:



Good, rain
Quoting 1033. TropicalAnalystwx13:


...and this is an invest.




No closed circulation, Cody, duh. Elongated, sure, but not the nice circular stuff ya need. Come on, you're making me feel as if I'm better than you at this stuff.
1062. beell
Quoting 1046. Barefootontherocks:

So's the rest of it...
"(increase in instability) could allow for some slight strengthening to occur before Bertha interacts with Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola in about 48 hours or so. After the cyclone clears land, some slight re-strengthening is possible based on the SHIPS model indicating that the vertical shear decreasing to less than 10 kt and SSTs increasing to near 29C."


Excellent points to keep in mind, bf. We'll see what makes it into the Caribbean, I guess.
Quoting 1012. StormJunkie:

Tiny rubbish white dot in trash Bertha's junk convection.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIyXJxPFVz4

Alright, we get it. You're the supreme Jokester.
1064. pottery
Yep, Trashy Bertha is putting on the lipstick and the rouge and all the fixin's to attend the various Island Parties this weekend.

She's a Tramp.
Not to be trusted, Tramps…..
Quoting 1044. StormJunkie:



And bacon I hope? Nothing like bacon wrapped crow after a long night with a trashy Bertha.
You know u r supposed to speak respectfully of a lady, or not at all, after u have passed a long night with her....

Quoting 1056. GatorWX:



I'm pretty sure it's not a single person making the judgement calls for the NHC. Not trying to call you out, just see this posted a lot. I know you realize this, just saying.


Yeah I know. It just lightens the mood imagining all the hilarious things that could happen or that they could say.
Some stuff they put in discussions are actually funny sometimes. Like "The Don is dead"
Quoting 1054. KoritheMan:

I asked SouthALWX if he would pick me up to chase Bertha in the event it hits the US. I have six days off from now through Wednesday.

Eager to see what he says.
It would have to take a track similar to David or Jeanne for you to have a chance it seems. But good luck. I myself might head to the east coast for a chase.
1068. 7544
bertha has found her sweet spot and might pull another surpise during dmax will the little red ball get bigger ? stay tune
1069. pottery
See you guys tomorrow.
Stay safe, and look after the Gormless.
1070. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
OH, you think so? Well, guess what; war vet, baby.... they'll hold on to Bertha for 48 and then "dissipate"....
OK, here's the thing. There might be some patch of really moist air say, NW of St. Lucia. It could blow up there to 55 knots...maybe even 57 knots. It could then skinny right down just as it get to PR and go right through the Mona Passage and not lose any intensity. Then Bertha will get out into that "Rocket Fuel" and blow up right to a monster minimal cat 1. You won't be laughing then, will you, Bahamas Boy? :-)
1071. aquak9
SJ's talking about bacon again.....
1072. sar2401
Quoting pottery:
See you guys tomorrow.
Stay safe, and look after the Gormless.
GN, Pott. At least the T&T met service isn't trying to pad their numbers. Kind of sad for us up here. ;-)
Monsoon gyre FTW.

Quoting 1062. beell:



Excellent points to keep in mind, bf. We'll see what makes it into the Caribbean, I guess.
So what is supposed to be happening with the trough now? Last I saw it was malingering and then was supposed to retrograde or something like.... NOT a good sound for somebody looking to see that suck Bertha up and out to sea....
1075. sar2401
Quoting 7544:
bertha has found her sweet spot and might pull another surpise during dmax will the little red ball get bigger ? stay tune
Sweet spot...hmmm...
Nvr Mind...
1077. beell
Quoting 1019. BahaHurican:

Nah.... I know so much about it because I had to look it up last week.... had a vague sailing related idea of "lee", but that was about it ....
So this is the impact of the upper air data.... maybe?


Has to be, Baha. A detail I would probably not notice. Next time I'll be looking! For me, interesting for that reason alone.
Quoting aquak9:
SJ's talking about bacon again.....

I'm pretty sure everything he's posted in these last two days has included at least one of the following terms:
-trash low
-rubbish low
-bacon-wrapped
Or some amalgamation of the three.
1079. Drakoen
I see we have Bertha...lol. Someone open the Dom Perignon!

Wait I have a question.
So are we at July: 1/1/0, August: 1/0/0
Or are we at July: 2/1/0, August: 0/0/0
1081. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Monsoon gyre FTW.

Wait...there's cirrus right over the center now. She's about to take off now. :-)
Interesting to note that both Arthur and Bertha's first advisories were the very last advisories of the month. (June for Arthur/July for Bertha)
Quoting 1070. sar2401:

OK, here's the thing. There might be some patch of really moist air say, NW of St. Lucia. It could blow up there to 55 knots...maybe even 57 knots. It could then skinny right down just as it get to PR and go right through the Mona Passage and not lose any intensity. Then Bertha will get out into that "Rocket Fuel" and blow up right to a monster minimal cat 1. You won't be laughing then, will you, Bahamas Boy? :-)
Hey, I am quaking in my boots already.... lol ....
Quoting 1050. StormJunkie:



Argghhhh!!! Nooooooooo!!! Guess everyone flocked to the store when rubbish low turned in to junk Bertha.


*Looks guilty* Sorry, that was me.

I found a recommendation for bacon-wrapped crow (look at the URL, hilarious).


Link for picture
I am afraid I am going to leave for some sleep as well. Goodnight everyone. I'm interested to see what Bertha looks like in the morning.
1086. Grothar
Quoting 1066. JrWeathermanFL:



Yeah I know. It just lightens the mood imagining all the hilarious things that could happen or that they could say.
Some stuff they put in discussions are actually funny sometimes. Like "The Don is dead"


I don't think weather blogs are the place for humor.



Hispaniola like to "jerk" around with the circulations of these week systems, lets see how Bertha reacts to it. Likely it'll shoot her LLC more west like we've happen so many times, FL to NY should keep their eyes on her.
Maybe 50mph next advisory.
Quoting beell:


Excellent points to keep in mind, bf. We'll see what makes it into the Caribbean, I guess.
I don't get the impression she's going into the Caribbean, bl. Yes, as with all things, we will see.
Quoting Tornado6042008X:

Wait I have a question.
So are we at July: 1/1/0, August: 1/0/0
Or are we at July: 2/1/0, August: 0/0/0


Quoting Tornado6042008X:

Wait I have a question.
So are we at July: 1/1/0, August: 1/0/0
Or are we at July: 2/1/0, August: 0/0/0


1/1/0 for July
1091. sar2401
Quoting Halcyon19:
Interesting to note that both Arthur and Bertha's first advisories were the very last advisories of the month. (June for Arthur/July for Bertha)

Yes. Kennedy and Lincoln have exactly same number of letters in their last name too. Coincidence? I think not...
Quoting 1061. Astrometeor:



No closed circulation, Cody, duh. Elongated, sure, but not the nice circular stuff ya need. Come on, you're making me feel as if I'm better than you at this stuff.

It had a closed circulation, and it was well-defined.

Quoting 1079. Drakoen:

I see we have Bertha...lol. Someone open the Dom Perignon!

Wait. I thought I had that hid for .... later....
Quoting 1080. Tornado6042008X:


Wait I have a question.
So are we at July: 1/1/0, August: 1/0/0
Or are we at July: 2/1/0, August: 0/0/0


Arthur was a July storm. UTC.
Quoting 1080. Tornado6042008X:


Wait I have a question.
So are we at July: 1/1/0, August: 1/0/0
Or are we at July: 2/1/0, August: 0/0/0

The top.
Quoting 1080. Tornado6042008X:


Wait I have a question.
So are we at July: 1/1/0, August: 1/0/0
Or are we at July: 2/1/0, August: 0/0/0
The former.
1097. sar2401
Quoting chrisdscane:



Hispaniola like to "jerk" around with the circulations of these week systems, lets see how Bertha reacts to it. Likely it'll shoot her LLC more west like we've happen so many times, FL to NY should keep their eyes on her.
Wow, the HWWRF is right on the money now. I wonder if Dr. Masters got a late page and is typing up a new blog as I type...so to speak? Let's see if I take last post honors again.
1098. aquak9
sar- you're scaring me.
Quoting 1073. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Monsoon gyre FTW.




Absolutely fascinating system. Don't even know how to classify it, but it's more deserving of a name than Bertha.
That punch in the dry air did the trick. Bertha said I'll show you who's boss.

Starting to look better than all of last nite
1102. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


Arthur was a July storm. UTC.
So Bertha is an August storm...UTC wise...right? This is so confusing. :-)
Quoting 1086. Grothar:



I don't think weather blogs are the place for humor.
Fine example of verbal irony....

Quoting 1091. sar2401:


Yes. Kennedy and Lincoln have exactly same number of letters in their last name too. Coincidence? I think not...
Non sequitur ...
1104. sar2401
Quoting aquak9:
sar- you're scaring me.
I do that to a lot of people. The neighborhood children avoid me for just that reason. ;-)
1105. Bubu77
Moi qui suis en Martinique j'ai de l'eau minérale des lampes de poches et des bougies sous la main !!
C'est pas une méchante tempête mais bon on ne sais jamais un brusque renforcement n'est pas 100% impossible.

wait and see
Quoting 1102. sar2401:

So Bertha is an August storm...UTC wise...right? This is so confusing. :-)

Might get at least 5 at this rate...
1107. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
That punch in the dry air did the trick. Bertha said I'll show you who's boss.

Just don't start to use the "RI" thing next...:-)
1108. aquak9
Quoting 1101. yankees440:

Starting to look better than all of last nite


but nothing looks better than bacon!

laterz---
Quoting 565. CosmicEvents:

i expect this so-called trash low or whatever to be a TD at 11, if not a TS.
It's got much less dry air to deal with, at least a 24 hour window to deal with starting now as we see.

Plus it's just now entering the diurnal max window.
I wouldn't be surprised if it made high TS/Cat 1 status before hitting the shear.

I don't make forecasts often but when I do I try to be definitive and I do ok.
The first part turned out verifying.
We'll see about the second part.
1110. beell
Quoting 1091. sar2401:


Yes. Kennedy and Lincoln have exactly same number of letters in their last name too. Coincidence? I think not...


2 months before Lincoln's death he was in Monroe, Maryland...And...
Quoting 1097. sar2401:

Wow, the HWWRF is right on the money now. I wonder if Dr. Masters got a late page and is typing up a new blog as I type...so to speak? Let's see if I take last post honors again.
Maybe Doc'll wake up in the middle of the night and do an update again.... that was cool...
1112. GatorWX
Quoting 1086. Grothar:



I don't think weather blogs are the place for humor.


Ha. That's funny
1114. sar2401
Quoting beell:


Has to be, Baha. A detail I would probably not notice. Next time I'll be looking! For me, interesting for that reason alone.
You often miss fine details like that, Beell. I'm starting to lose confidence in you... ;-)
1115. sar2401
Quoting GatorWX:


Ha. That's funny
No, it's not. We'll have no hilarity in the command post here.
Quoting 1092. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It had a closed circulation, and it was well-defined.




It was elongated according to Skye's picture that she had.
Quoting 1113. BahaHurican:


There's a white pixel in the middle of all that red ... blobiness...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Monsoon gyre FTW.



Holy crap, that's insane. Looks like the GFS was right with the structure of that one.
1119. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
Maybe Doc'll wake up in the middle of the night and do an update again.... that was cool...
I wish I didn't have Meniere's Syndrome and could still drink. I'd be starting to get plastered right about now. 8-)
EPAC 9-ATL 2......
I don't mean to make an off topic post, and only post this now that we have Beryl.

But I used to have a lot of fun being creative with the NHC public advisories.
I had a formula that I would enter the storm coordinates into, then I would graph the results.
When the storm dissipated, I would trace out "constellations" for each storm based on what I saw in the dots.
They resulting images would be each unique to the storms' specific paths.

I haven't done it since 2006 which was the last time Beryl rolled around but here's a few of them from that year:
Alberto the Crustacean, The Unnamed Upside-down Penguin, Beryl the Caballero, Chris the Stag, Debbie the Turkey, Gordon the dying Fish



Just some fun as I remember seasons past.
Quoting BahaHurican:
most likely 50 now.
1123. sar2401
Quoting PedleyCA:
EPAC 9-ATL 2......
It's not even halftime yet, Ped. Plenty of time for the home team to start putting points on the clock, just like the Browns in the Super...oh, wait. Well, you know what I mean.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Monsoon gyre FTW.

Low level and midlevel spins? what's FTW?
1125. beell
1126. sar2401
Quoting HurrikanEB:
I don't mean to make an off topic post, and only post this now that we have Beryl.

But I used to have a lot of fun being creative with the NHC public advisories.
I had a formula that I would enter the storm coordinates into, then I would graph the results.
When the storm dissipated, I would trace out "constellations" for each storm based on what I saw in the dots.
They resulting images would be each unique to the storms' specific paths.

I haven't done it since 2006 which was the last time Beryl rolled around but here's a few of them from that year:
Alberto the Crustacean, The Unnamed Upside-down Penguin, Beryl the Caballero, Chris the Stag, Debbie the Turkey, Gordon the dying Fish



Just some fun as I remember seasons past.
LOL. Very creative, but it's Bertha this time around. Wouldn't want the wrong constellation named. :-)
Quoting 1120. PedleyCA:

EPAC 9-ATL 2......


Comeback time!

----

Anyone up for Tropics Talk/Chat?
Quoting 1120. PedleyCA:

EPAC 9-ATL 2......
3 field goals to a safety, nice!
1129. sar2401
Quoting beell:
That pimple is getting bigger and bigger...
Quoting HurrikanEB:
I don't mean to make an off topic post, and only post this now that we have Beryl.

But I used to have a lot of fun being creative with the NHC public advisories.
I had a formula that I would enter the storm coordinates into, then I would graph the results.
When the storm dissipated, I would trace out "constellations" for each storm based on what I saw in the dots.
They resulting images would be each unique to the storms' specific paths.

I haven't done it since 2006 which was the last time Beryl rolled around but here's a few of them from that year:
Alberto the Crustacean, The Unnamed Upside-down Penguin, Beryl the Caballero, Chris the Stag, Debbie the Turkey, Gordon the dying Fish



Just some fun as I remember seasons past.
That's really neat.
1131. sar2401
Quoting beell:


2 months before Lincoln's death he was in Monroe, Maryland...And...
So many signs that our world is ruled by the reptilian shape shifters. If only the Sheeple could see this...
Quoting 1102. sar2401:

So Bertha is an August storm...UTC wise...right? This is so confusing. :-)


Yeah.
Damnit, these last two hurricane seasons have made me throw everything I thought I knew about tropical systems out the window.

This Bertha thing doesnt even make sense, it shouldnt even be alive anymore...I am so confused...my science brain is hurting again.
Well what do you know NHC upgrades we got TS Bertha
Quoting beell:


2 months before Lincoln's death he was in Monroe, Maryland...And...
...bacon?
1136. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Well what do you know NHC upgrades we got TS Bertha
You're late to the party, WKC. Bertha, or what passes for Bertha, looks like it will get into the Caribbean just at 15N. Good job on that one.
1137. sar2401
Quoting RyanSperrey:
Damnit, these last two hurricane seasons have made me throw everything I thought I knew about tropical systems out the window.

This Bertha thing doesnt even make sense, it shouldnt even be alive anymore...I am so confused...my science brain is hurting again.
Really. If you're allowed to drink, a couple of Pain Killers will make everything much more clear. :-)
Bertha while being comedy central for the blog and bringing much needed rain could be quite threatening in the long run. 10% chance this goes OB Northward as a hurricane. "Could" be a much bigger problem than ever thought. Conditions will improve and if Bertha survives mountainous regions then this has the real potential of becoming a hurricane.
Quoting 1128. GTstormChaserCaleb:

3 field goals to a safety, nice!


In 'Bertha's' defense, she did have to choke on a bit of SAL recently.. apparently NHC thinks she can work it out...

Quoting 1127. Astrometeor:



Comeback time!

----

Anyone up for Tropics Talk/Chat?

Really!!!
1141. Grothar
Quoting 1121. HurrikanEB:

I don't mean to make an off topic post, and only post this now that we have Beryl.

But I used to have a lot of fun being creative with the NHC public advisories.
I had a formula that I would enter the storm coordinates into, then I would graph the results.
When the storm dissipated, I would trace out "constellations" for each storm based on what I saw in the dots.
They resulting images would be each unique to the storms' specific paths.

I haven't done it since 2006 which was the last time Beryl rolled around but here's a few of them from that year:
Alberto the Crustacean, The Unnamed Upside-down Penguin, Beryl the Caballero, Chris the Stag, Debbie the Turkey, Gordon the dying Fish



Just some fun as I remember seasons past.


Ingenious! That is one of the most creative things I've seen!!!
1142. Pallis1
Quoting 52. Grothar:

Almost all reliable models are showing the sharp NW and North turn.


Maybe that will happen, but I just bet over a grand that it would not this morning. I am not covered like banks and insurance companies.
1143. GatorWX
Quoting 1115. sar2401:

No, it's not. We'll have no hilarity in the command post here.


sar for sarcasm? :)
1144. Grothar
Quoting 1111. BahaHurican:

Maybe Doc'll wake up in the middle of the night and do an update again.... that was cool...


He'll be on 5 minutes after me.
Quoting 1100. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That punch in the dry air did the trick. Bertha said I'll show you who's boss.




Yep. Bertha's vigorous LLC, working over warmer SST's, is giving a right hook of moisture at that chunk of very dry air in her house. Guess she figured that enough was enough and it was time to bring it on! Love watching the fight and we all have a front row seat :]
Quoting 1124. Barefootontherocks:

Low level and midlevel spins? what's FTW?

Teenager slang, lol. It means 'for the win', so something interesting/cool.
Bahamas may need to watch this.

Quoting 1126. sar2401:

LOL. Very creative, but it's Bertha this time around. Wouldn't want the wrong constellation named. :-)


OMG sfughadsfdfisw I knew that I was confusing myself as I was posting because I knew I was mixing up Bertha and Beryl. And instead of double checking what storm we were currently up to (Bertha) I just added six years (name list rotations) to 2006 and actually really thought it was currently 2012. EMBARRASSING. Obviously I need to go to bed. Good night everyone. Keep posting the informational incite that you always do :-)
1149. Grothar
Quoting 1091. sar2401:


Yes. Kennedy and Lincoln have exactly same number of letters in their last name too. Coincidence? I think not...


Kennedy had a secretary named Lincoln, and Lincoln had a secretary named Kennedy. Lincoln was shot in Ford's theater and Kennedy was shot in a Lincoln made by Ford. There are many more.
1150. ryang
My bed calls me. Goodnight everyone and take care. Get some good rest.
Quoting 1130. Barefootontherocks:

That's really neat.


Gro would totally dig that. I do.

A more flattering photo of 'Bertha':

This is why we all follow the tropics. No one has a clue what's going to happen. Could die over the mountains, could get troughed OTS, could make the lower Bahamas and hit the OB Northward as a Cat 2+. This is a classic what's next storm.
1154. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Teenager slang, lol. It means 'for the win', so something interesting/cool.
Lol. I like it. Thanks.
1156. Patrap


Quoting 1141. Grothar:



Ingenious! That is one of the most creative things I've seen!!!


I keep telling you, as above, so below.
1158. Patrap
Tropical Storm 03L

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 AUG 2014 Time : 034500 UTC
Lat : 12:21:41 N Lon : 55:42:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1007.8mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.6 1.5

Center Temp : +18.3C Cloud Region Temp : -14.0C

Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1014mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.6 degrees



As Anticipated Indeed...
Greetings To All!

While cyclogenesis took quite longer than originally expected for a varied number of factors...T.S. Bertha has finally formed, as anticipated, and has been officially classified & named. IMO This system is Not one to be taken lightly- in one way it has already been a deadly storm from its impacts on the African continent, which SADLY caused the loss of life of several persons aboard an airliner which was downed due to bad weather conditions caused by the then Pre-Bertha version of this same system. To its credit the storm has been able to fight of -SAL; Dry air and wind shear, and has consistently been a well-defined low pressure system.
With surface winds long since clocked at around 40 to 45 mph across the northern and eastern portions of the circulation- the system might actually be a lot stronger now. Showers and intense thunderstorms have continued to increase east and north of the center during the past couple of hours. The western flank of the system also seems to be trying to build up adequate convection and thunderstorm banding as well in response to DMax etc.
With advisories being initiated -Our usual courtesy thanks are extended to the Barbados Met Office & Government that normally issues our Storm warnings for Dominica -with alacrity and keen proficiency. In such ways regional cooperation, and fraternity most definitely lives.
Let's All be safe this season...God Bless!
1160. Patrap
Never underestimate a bad CV seed.

Bertha got moxie.



1161. GatorWX
Quoting 1139. redwagon:



In 'Bertha's' defense, she did have to choke on a bit of SAL recently.. apparently NHC thinks she can work it out...




That was a big wave! Look at it's "sphere of influence" as I like to call it. I suppose someone has a more scientific term..
1162. Patrap


More purple dot for FL. I often wonder if these renderings are done in MS Paint with the spraybrush. Can't get a dot of purple in the GOM for all the rice in China.
1164. GatorWX
Quoting 1156. Patrap:






I think I saw a rocket go up the other day at Kennedy. There was one heck of a plume headed up in the east. Stood out
1165. Patrap
1166. IDTH

Is that a wave over Africa? If so then I have never seen one that big before.
1167. sar2401
Quoting NatureIsle:
As Anticipated Indeed...
Greetings To All!

While cyclogenesis took quite longer than originally expected for a varied number of factors...T.S. Bertha has finally formed, as anticipated, and has been officially classified & named. IMO This system is Not one to be taken lightly- in one way it has already been a deadly storm from its impacts on the African continent, which SADLY caused the loss of life of several persons aboard an airliner which was downed due to bad weather conditions caused by the then Pre-Bertha version of this same system. To its credit the storm has been able to fight of -SAL; Dry air and wind shear, and has consistently been a well-defined low pressure system.
With surface winds long since clocked at around 40 to 45 mph across the northern and eastern portions of the circulation- the system might actually be a lot stronger now. Showers and intense thunderstorms have continued to increase east and north of the center during the past couple of hours. The western flank of the system also seems to be trying to build up adequate convection and thunderstorm banding as well in response to DMax etc.
With advisories being initiated -Our usual courtesy thanks are extended to the Barbados Met Office & Government that normally issues our Storm warnings for Dominica -with alacrity and keen proficiency. In such ways regional cooperation, and fraternity most definitely lives.
Let's All be safe this season...God Bless!
Bertha is not the storm that was in the area of the airliner crash. It's the low behind Bertha. This storm should be much more of a help to the Caribbean than a killer.
Quoting 1054. KoritheMan:

I asked SouthALWX if he would pick me up to chase Bertha in the event it hits the US. I have six days off from now through Wednesday.

Eager to see what he says.


He replied. And he agreed. The only condition (which we both agree on) is that Bertha has to impress more than it currently is. And obviously, has to hit the US. ;)

We're thinking a solid Category 1 would be worth going for. But I'm not holding my breath.
Really looking forward to Dr. Master's next blog. Bertha going to be a tricky one to nail down. NHC has done an amazing job so far, morning report will be quite telling.
1170. sar2401
Quoting GatorWX:


sar for sarcasm? :)
I have been accused of that before. I don't really understand why though. :-)
Quoting 1164. GatorWX:



I think I saw a rocket go up the other day at Kennedy. There was one heck of a plume headed up in the east. Stood out


It looks as we're finally witnessing a positive response to DMAX. Bertha's about the size of Texas. When she is forced to ingest the final patch of SAL in her path, I guess she will slow down until she works it out, all the while moving West. I expect a rather S model shift in the AM.
1172. Grothar
Quoting 1168. KoritheMan:



He replied. And he agreed. The only condition (which we both agree on) is that Bertha has to impress more than it currently is. And obviously, has to hit the US. ;)

We're thinking a solid Category 1 would be worth going for. But I'm not holding my breath.


A number of models will want to bring it to a CAT off the coast of Florida. This thing has a long way to go
Quoting 1161. GatorWX:



That was a big wave! Look at it's "sphere of influence" as I like to call it. I suppose someone has a more scientific term..

If you're referring to the "dust waves"...they're called occi-caesural sahel pulses. Bertha has another 18 hours or so in the relative wake before the next "wave" breaks.
1174. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


He replied. And he agreed. The only condition (which we both agree on) is that Bertha has to impress more than it currently is. And obviously, has to hit the US. ;)

We're thinking a solid Category 1 would be worth going for. But I'm not holding my breath.
At this point, Bertha would be hardly worth the gas. I guess we'll see what it has up its sleeve but I wouldn't hold my breath either. Figures that I'll be in Ohio when all this goes down or I might be tempted to get in on the chase.
1175. Grothar
Quoting 1166. IDTH:


Is that a wave over Africa? If so then I have never seen one that big before.


It is very large. It has been posted a couple of times since yesterday.

1176. GatorWX
Quoting 1168. KoritheMan:



He replied. And he agreed. The only condition (which we both agree on) is that Bertha has to impress more than it currently is. And obviously, has to hit the US. ;)

We're thinking a solid Category 1 would be worth going for. But I'm not holding my breath.


I'm waiting for that boiling GOM to produce, I'm down if you are this season. This is probably my last in FL for awhile. Moving to CA this fall. Of course I had to wait for the season to be over. I'd really like to track one, so long as it's a big one. Haven't witnessed one firsthand since Charley. I ran around w-central FL chasing Frances and Jeanne, but didn't have the same affect. I'm beginning to really question the preseason forecasts, or at least the validity of their usefulness.
1177. 7544
looks like bertha may have a twin behind her hmmm
Hmm. Trash Bertha seems to have created a decent junk inflow of moisture from the S and E. Even some convection starting to show up in that tap back to the continent.

1179. GatorWX
Quoting 1173. CosmicEvents:


If you're referring to the "dust waves"...they're called occi-caesural sahel pulses. Bertha has another 18 hours or so in the relative wake before the next "wave" breaks.


Thank you amigo. I'm referring to the entir circulation envelope per se. It's evident in the CIMSS map the influence the low has on the overall trajectory of the atmosphere for 100's of miles. I'm very tired right now and that may make absolutely no sense. Also, you may have already answered my question. I haven't yet looked it up.
Quoting 1174. sar2401:

At this point, Bertha would be hardly worth the gas. I guess we'll see what it has up its sleeve but I wouldn't hold my breath either. Figures that I'll be in Ohio when all this goes down or I might be tempted to get in on the chase.


Agreed SAR. Been meaning to mention this to Kori. Trust me, I know it will be hard; but do not chase anything that isn't a borderline CAT 1 at least. You would be disappointed overall and unless it is a short trip, with in a few hours, wouldn't be worth it financially or time wise.

There is an infamous blogger that use to chase junk lows from thousands of miles away. He burnt up all his money, energy, and reputation chasing junk.
1181. Grothar
Quoting 1170. sar2401:

I have been accused of that before. I don't really understand why though. :-)


Oh, please. Ivan the Terrible would get unnerved sitting next to you. :)
ok
bertha getting better organized
i think
1184. GatorWX
Quoting 1180. StormJunkie:



Agreed SAR. Been meaning to mention this to Kori. Trust me, I know it will be hard; but do not chase anything that isn't a borderline CAT 1 at least. You would be disappointed overall and unless it is a short trip, with in a few hours, wouldn't be worth it financially or time wise.

There is an infamous blogger that use to chase junk lows from thousands of miles away. He burnt up all his money, energy, and reputation chasing junk.


? Who was that?
1185. Grothar
Quoting 1178. StormJunkie:

Hmm. Trash Bertha seems to have created a decent junk inflow of moisture from the S and E. Even some convection starting to show up in that tap back to the continent.


When Bertha was an invest it was huge now it seems so small.
Quoting 1146. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Teenager slang, lol. It means 'for the win', so something interesting/cool.
Are you sure it means that lol XD. I got something else when I look it.
1187. Grothar
This is the little blob behind 93L


Quoting 1180. StormJunkie:



Agreed SAR. Been meaning to mention this to Kori. Trust me, I know it will be hard; but do not chase anything that isn't a borderline CAT 1 at least. You would be disappointed overall and unless it is a short trip, with in a few hours, wouldn't be worth it financially or time wise.

There is an infamous blogger that use to chase junk lows from thousands of miles away. He burnt up all his money, energy, and reputation chasing junk.


No no no. I agree. The only time I would do that is if the hypothetical storm landfalled in Louisiana or Mississippi. Because that's like walking distance for a car where I live, lol.
1189. FOREX
Convection already starting to wane.
Tropical Storm BERTHA US Watch/ Warning 1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014
PUERTO-RICO 18.22N 66.44W
VIEQUES 18.12N 65.43W
CULEBRA 18.32N 65.28W
ST-THOMAS-AND-ST-JOHN 18.33N 64.85W
ST-CROIX 17.74N 64.73W

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE FRIDAY
MORNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

Quoting 1189. FOREX:

Convection already starting to wane.


good!!
1192. nash36
Quoting 1183. kuppenskup:

bertha getting better organized
i think



No, not so much..... Disappointing system traversing disappointing ATL conditions.
1193. sar2401
Quoting FOREX:
Convection already starting to wane.
Not really starting to wane, just isn't increasing. I hope it stays like this through the Islands. Should produce some beneficial rains with very few problems.

1194. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, please. Ivan the Terrible would get unnerved sitting next to you. :)
No he wouldn't. Ivan and I were best buds. :-)
Quoting 1192. nash36:



No, not so much..... Disappointing system traversing disappointing ATL conditions.


Rubbish storm crossing a junk Atl...
New intermediate advisory
LLC is just W of the blob of convection
12.6N 56.3W
Just realized this site is full of persons who know little about tropical cyclones...
Quoting 1147. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Bahamas may need to watch this.


Bahamas is watchin....
Quoting 1197. MeteoMan03:

Just realized this site is full of persons who know little about tropical cyclones...
So.... is that a good thing?
[holding blog door handle]
1199. nash36
Quoting 1197. MeteoMan03:

Just realized this site is full of persons who know little about tropical cyclones...


Welcome. I will say that many on here are weather geeks. Some of us have been here, off and on, since the inception of this site. Some here are, indeed, meteorologists, or mets in training. Many have a deep passion for the uncontrollable....the "cyclone." Many of us, myself included, have screwed the bronze pooch with track, intensity and genesis forecasts more times than we can count.

Keep that in mind as you slam a community.
The center ahead of convection..

when thunder storms are closer to the center then it would be a serious concern as it stands now at least 4 hours from now wind shear should decrease slightly ahead of it but not over the system
Quoting 1197. MeteoMan03:

Just realized this site is full of persons who know little about tropical cyclones...


Assuming you've been lurking, it sure took you awhile.

Optimistic much?

EDIT: There are more than a few good apples here, met and non met. You know who you are, and I respect you guys.
Welcome to August!

Quoting 1139. redwagon:



In 'Bertha's' defense, she did have to choke on a bit of SAL recently.. apparently NHC thinks she can work it out...



Bertha has actually made some headway in clearing away the dry air, at least behind her.
In my experience any forecast calling for a tropical storm for 5 days is always wrong, usually storms dissipate before they can hit the five day forecast point. However the history of previous Berthas is keeping me hopeful that a long track hurricane will come of this storm. I am going to bed I will see you all in the morn
1205. sar2401
Quoting MeteoMan03:
Just realized this site is full of persons who know little about tropical cyclones...
Well, I'm sure you'll add to that number...
The new guy sure livend up the blog.

We were doing just fine ignorantly discussing that junk cyclone thingy before he came along.
1207. JLPR2
I see Bertha is doing well and is refusing to fade away. Impressive considering the chunk of dry air it ingested.


Bertha's first outerbands are reaching Barbados:
Quoting 1197. MeteoMan03:

Just realized this site is full of persons who know little about tropical cyclones...


This year the blog seems full of newbies who just want to stir things- luckily they disappear quickly.

I put my hand up as one of those who do know very little - but I lurk on here learning from those regulars who are knowledgeable - thanks to those guys (some still here and also others who have now gone) for helping me learn.
Stacy Stewart.......Myyyy Man!
Bertha says....What dry air?....Chomp Chomp Chomp..............LOL.....just even kind of a convective band near the center! Go Stacy Go!
Quoting 1208. fragileuk:



This year the blog seems full of newbies who just want to stir things- luckily they disappear quickly.

I put my hand up as one of those who do know very little - but I lurk on here learning from those regulars who are knowledgeable - thanks to those guys (some still here and also others who have now gone) for helping me learn.


Here, everyone is a legend i their own mind!
Bertha may still move more NW than forecast... That's what I'm hopping so that we can get rain.

Holding on ... we still have a slight chance. Windwards can't get everything every times...

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.



At least it is not a naked swirl...
Looks like the center may pass between Dominica and Guadeloupe, then head towards Eastern PR/USVI...

Most weather is to the NE of the center... could be good for the NE Caribbean on Sat/Sun
Gonna be tough for Bertha to do more than just clip the soft underbelly of the Caribbean.





Quoting 1218. CaribBoy:

Looks like the center may pass between Dominica and Guadeloupe, then head towards Eastern PR/USVI...
Somewhere over dare dat way! Are they forecasting rain for you CaribBoy?
Quoting 1220. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Somewhere over dare dat way! Are they forecasting rain for you CaribBoy?


Yes heavy rains, thunderstorms, and gusty winds... but I don't believe it for now lol. I want to see convection expanding more to the N of the center.
So after 2 to 3 days the track becomes uncertain?
Bertha gaining latitude
Aug 1 and already 8mm to 15mm have fallen on the island overnight. :-)

The whole month of july totaled 16.6mm.... driest on record.
Quoting CaribBoy: Looks like the center may pass between Dominica and Guadeloupe, then head towards Eastern PR/USVI ..

Here in the USVI, Bertha should bring much-needed rain. The northeastern Caribbean is in the midst of the driest period in recorded history, according to NOAA. As per Bertha, the circulation remains very impressive, and I would not be surprised if the HH finds 60 mph winds north and east of the center today. Bertha survived a harsher environment over the past few days, so I believe it will maintain a descent signature as it crosses the island chain. Blessings all, and have a great and safe day.


its going out to sea its going to be a fish storm soon.
1227. WxLogic
Good Morning... on its way.

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 09:41Z
Date: August 1, 2014
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Bertha (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 01
1228. WxLogic
Current steering still favors a WNW track for at least 24HR.

I knew the ole gal was in there. She just needed a colorful dress to go with her skeleton. She should do well and miss a direct hit of the Dominican I think the strength forecast will go up...
1230. barbamz
"Bertha", really, lol. Good morning! Hope some of you will get a nice soaking today (and especially Bertha has typed the exact address of CaribBoy's house into her navi gps :-)

1231. 606
Going morning to all, Bertha is finally here. I guess we will have to rush final preparations since the warnings were given latter than usual. It is now 6: 18 in ST. Lucia, all is calm here and slightly overcast. If I didn't know better I would believe that we would be having a beautiful day to head to the beach. It is a public holiday here since we are observing Emancipation Day. I guess once you live in this part of the world you cannot emancipate yourself from storms and hurricanes. KEEP SAFE.
1232. barbamz

And sun is up, too.


Click to enlarge.
Looks like Trash Bertha is right on 14N...Daytime coming. She beefed up a little last night, but will struggle again with the daytime i think. Rubbish convection already starting to wane a bit.



Quoting 606:

Bertha is finally here. I guess we will have to rush final preparations since the warnings were given latter than usual.

Well said my friend. Weather should begin to deteriorate across your neck of the woods by this evening into early Saturday. Bertha is not a classical -- textbook type tropical storm, but none the less, it is a bona fide tropical cyclone. Convection could develop closer to the center of circulation today, given that SAL/dry air is thinner near the islands than further east. Just my take. Have a safe day all and blessings.
Or maybe a hair above 14N...Can anyone explain the difference between the 85GHz and 37Ghz? What's the difference in what they are showing?


nice tropical storm with wids of 45 mph


its the rain getting in the center yet!!
Quoting StormJunkie:

The HH took off from St. Croix half an hour ago and is now near Guadeloupe. Should be in Bertha in the next 45 minutes. It will be interesting to see what they find. I am nostalgic, recalling my trips with the HH a few years ago. Wish I were on this one today. At any rate, my guess is that the HH will find winds slightly higher and the trajectory could be 280 to 285 degrees, slightly to the right of the current forecast track. Visible imagery is showing the center of circulation very clearly. God bless and have a safe day all. STEVEN.
Quoting 1237. hurricanes2018:



its the rain getting in the center yet!!


Yes. That one tiny rubbish hot tower is right on the E edge of the center.
1240. ryang
1241. ncstorm
Just wanted to let those know that today's beverages on the menu at the all you can eat crow buffet is southern ice tea, soda beverages and water. Dessert is an extra $2.50 per person which is humble pie. WU Buffet has asked that you please call ahead for seating due to large crowd its expecting.





The big hook as suspected saves florida once again.....
"SORRY ACCESS DENIED!!!..

KINDLY GO BACK TO BARBADOSWEATHER.ORG Radar PAGE TO ACCESS Radar IMAGERY

BBB Crawler Police..."

What the hecks with that??? I just wanted the viewer.
Quoting 1241. ncstorm:

Just wanted to let those know that today's beverages on the menue at the all you can eat crow buffet is southern ice tea, soda beverages and water. Dessert is an extra $2.50 per person which is humble pie. WU Buffet has asked that you please call ahead for seating due to large crowd its expecting.








If you don't have bacon and adult bevs...Then count me out. I'll just sit here and watch Bertha's junk...
1245. KalainH
.
None for me thank you! I was right! LOL
Quoting 1241. ncstorm:

Just wanted to let those know that today's beverages on the menu at the all you can eat crow buffet is southern ice tea, soda beverages and water. Dessert is an extra $2.50 per person which is humble pie. WU Buffet has asked that you please call ahead for seating due to large crowd its expecting.






Quoting 1239. StormJunkie:



Yes. That one tiny rubbish hot tower is right on the E edge of the center.


LOL now individual thunderstorms of Tropical Storm Bertha get the trash talking? If only cyclones could talk back to blogs I am sure there would be quite a bit of trash talking aimed in one certain bloggers direction.
Ahh. This is what we wanted.

My mistake. This is what we wanted. First tab. 400km Java or Flash as you choose.



Bertha looking best yet. System behind sheared hard from South East.
1250. barbamz




Bertha resembles a tropical fish right now, lol.
1251. ncstorm
Quoting 1244. StormJunkie:



If you don't have bacon and adult bevs...Then count me out. I'll just sit here and watch Bertha's junk...


LOL SJ..I have been told Bacon wrapped crow is abundant and waiting for those who want that crispy texture..:)
bertha is cutting a path for all storms to follow this year conus should be ok this year
Quoting 1245. KalainH:



Here you go: http://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados-weather-Ra dar-SABDriver.php


Thanks you! I had just figured out I need to use the driver to get to the displayer. Very nice.
"good old boys talking" to me it sounds like "baby talking"
Quoting 1235. StormJunkie:

Or maybe a hair above 14N...Can anyone explain the difference between the 85GHz and 37Ghz? What's the difference in what they are showing?

I don't have a link to the following since it is a stored doc on my PC

"

Data obtained at 85 to 91 GHz are primarily used to observe the deep convective clouds associated with TC structure, especially in the TC core. Within this region of the electromagnetic spectrum, cloud water droplets near the freezing level help to deplete upwelled microwave radiation. Since non-precipitating cirrus has little effect on radiation at this wavelength, the remaining upwelled radiation is released to space, where satellites can observe it. The effects of scattering and absorption reduce the net microwave radiation aloft, making satellite brightness temperatures appear cold.
Data at lower frequencies (e.g., 37 GHz) are used to elucidate low cloud features. This is possible since emission and absorption of microwave radiation by hydrometeors near and below the freezing level is minimal, making observed brightness temperatures in areas of low clouds and precipitation warm at this frequency.

One of the advantages of using passive microwave imagery is that it provides information on TC structure from which a center location can be inferred. Data near 85 GHz can depict the location of a mid-level center in a vertically sheared system, since those frequencies reveal features at middle- to upper-levels. Imagery from 37 GHz can reveal low cloud features indicative of the low-level center position and is more suitable for center fixes in weaker TCs, even though it is of lower resolution than the 85 GHz channel. Center fixes from these two channels are often not in agreement, particularly for sheared TCs.

"


This is going to get interesting here as to the Blob that has been sinking south for a few days and is now just north of the Dominican and is getting some vigor... What ever happens to the blob is going to happen to Bertha... Not often we have a blob to guide the way.... I do not see how Bertha is supposed to go north during the end of her five day as a blocking pattern should as I said make this interesting. Currently the official track is east of my official track... We will see! IMHO
Quoting 1250. barbamz:





Bertha resembles a tropical fish right now, lol.



lololololol
nrti, Thanks! So she doesn't quite have her self stacked. Close, but just a little off. Half a degree or so.
1259. beell

Current CIMSS Shear Product (click for larger image).
1260. guygee
Eastern Caribbean shear and the mountains of Hispaniola are the one-two punch that have hammered many marginal tropical storms back down to wave status. Should be interesting...
1261. tkdaime
The area east of bahamas has zero shear bertha should be ajusted west in the next 3 days anyone have any answers
1262. ncstorm
we actually had a tornado warning indicated by radar last night in Brunswick County..next to New Hanover County with the severe storms starting at 3 this morning..threat is supposed to last throughout the day..





im sure that at some point they will change the track showing florida getting hit but then change it back to the big hook


Since Bertha's forecast to remain a TS through the next few days, here's hoping that Puerto Rico benefits nicely from this event.
1266. junie1
Quoting 1226. hurricanes2018:



its going out to sea its going to be a fish storm soon.
dude its affecting the islands its not a fish storm
3NCF...NCEP+Canadian+Navy 60-member mean


Quoting 1267. nrtiwlnvragn:

3NCF...NCEP+Canadian+Navy 60-member mean





Solid forecast...but I think Junk Bertha is going to either follow that one line to Jamaica/Cayman's...Or the one line to S Fl. Not sure which though.
July 2014 - 2 Named Tropical Storms

Just when the "trash wave" was waxing and waning, it finally got its act together .... just in time!

T. S. Bertha was born, and delivered us the 2nd named Atlantic tropical storm of the season, in the last few hours of July 31, 2014!

It's the numbers that count, and at this moment ... it looks like we are already ahead of many other past hurricane seasons where July did not have anything!!

To Fish .... or not to Fish, hopefully it will bring the islands some much needed rain, and give us something interesting to watch!
Quoting 1260. guygee:

Eastern Caribbean shear and the mountains of Hispaniola are the one-two punch that have hammered many marginal tropical storms back down to wave status. Should be interesting...


With Bertha remaining weak if she runs into Hispaniola then that for sure will disrupt her circulation.
Opens up Junk mail and see's Bertha has formed.
Quoting 1266. junie1:

dude its affecting the islands its not a fish storm



Can you guys plzs stop quoting him many of us have him on ignore i wish they would remove that quot from the blog comments it dos not belong here's has it enter fear with the ignore list
Quoting 1267. nrtiwlnvragn:

3NCF...NCEP+Canadian+Navy 60-member mean





Great swell producer. I will get a couple good days in.

Think it will come substantially closer to CONUS. Think interaction with Hispaniola will temporary weaken Bertha and it will end up further westward in the Bahamas.



Quoting 1273. HaoleboySurfEC:



Great swell producer. I will get a couple good days in.

Think it will come substantially closer to CONUS. Think interaction with Hispaniola will temporary weaken Bertha and it will end up further westward in the Bahamas.






The Hispaniola Spine will destroy her. Those peaks are not rubbish, trash, or junk. Systems do no like them. May still be enough to kick up an E coast swell, but I doubt it. This is not like having a big one off shore.
1275. ncstorm
Quoting 1271. StormTrackerScott:

Opens up Junk mail and see's Bertha has formed.


Did you see your Invitation as well to the soire at WU All you can eat crow buffet? RSVP is needed :)
Now if Presslord was a female storm then I would be concerned.

Quoting 1275. ncstorm:



Did you see your Invitation as well to the soire at WU All you can eat crow buffet? RSVP is needed :)


Right now its bacon and eggs with a side order of biscuits and gravy.

Scott, I will not quote that...But that is trashy junk rubbish; his wife on the other hand is none of those things.
1279. ncstorm
00z CMC ensembles..some have come back west..might be a tricky forecast where Bertha exits and if her center is still intact..


click to enlarge

000
WTNT33 KNHC 011153
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
800 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO INVESTIGATE BERTHA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR MARTINIQUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 57.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF
BARBADOS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE BERTHA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

1281. Grothar
We had fun last night as we saw Bertha coming along. For awhile it looked like poof, than all of a sudden she did very nicely. We also had fun wondering what the morning shift was going to do. But it was all in good humor. Some of us even stated that there was a small chance she could be a hurricane later on. A few models are now agreeing.



1282. ncstorm
Quoting 1277. StormTrackerScott:



Right now its bacon and eggs with a side order of biscuits and gravy.




really..hmm..okay but how does a junk low become a TS?

I have to jet..will be back later..all in good fun Scott..
Quoting 1279. ncstorm:

00z CMC ensembles..some have come back west..might be a tricky forecast where Bertha exits and if her center is still intact..


click to enlarge


Hispaniola will be a big obstacle for Bertha. I've seen hurricanes hit cross Hispaniola and exit as tropical depressions. We will see what Bertha is made of in a few days for sure.
1284. ncstorm
Quoting 1281. Grothar:

We had fun last night as we saw Bertha coming along. For awhile it looked like poof, than all of a sudden she did very nicely. We also had fun wondering what the morning shift was going to do. But it was all in good humor. Some of us even stated that there was a small chance she could be a hurricane later on. A few models are now agreeing.






GM Gro..

So no mobs storming of the NHC offices last night?
Quoting 1282. ncstorm:



really..hmm..okay but how does a junk low become a TS?

I have to jet..will be back later..all in good fun Scott..


Hey I had to chime in on trashy low that someone called it with my own spin:)
Quoting 1274. StormJunkie:



The Hispaniola Spine will destroy her. Those peaks are not rubbish, trash, or junk. Systems do no like them. May still be enough to kick up an E coast swell, but I doubt it. This is not like having a big one off shore.


Yes directly over those peaks will destroy her. Agreed. Then it is game over. I'm thinking only a glancing blow.

There will be waves. It's more about direction than intensity for the east coast. I've seen minimal tropical storms throw great waves and enormous Cat 3+ storms fail to deliver. The waves go "somewhere", just not where I am. It's always a crap shoot but that current track would provide a couple "fun" days of summer surf.

Bigger isn't always better on the old east coast. Not many places can handle macking size. There are some New England point breaks that hold, but most other sandbars and jetties start to shut down after 8-10' faces.
Good Morning. Checking on Bertha and the track for the first time this am, this is very good news for the Northern Leewards and Puerto Rico/VI. They really need some drought relief and it is looking like Bertha is just what the Dr. ordered. In addition to the public works related water collection infra-structure (whether from fresh water rivers or rain collection devices), many of the residents on these Islands use tanks and cisterns on their properties to collect rain water for their fresh water needs (and particularly for local agriculture).

Good news to have a low-grade tropical storm pass over their Islands.
Looks like the Monsoon has arrived over by ricderr.

Quoting 1276. StormTrackerScott:

Now if Presslord was a female storm then I would be concerned.





Lol you did a taz
1290. Grothar
Quoting 1284. ncstorm:



GM Gro..

So no mobs storming of the NHC offices last night?


Nope. LOL They must have seen we were serious that Bertha would form, although there was hardly a wisp left in the old girl. Some of the bloggers should look back around 8-10:30 to read what we were saying. Seriously, it happened very quickly.
She should stay east of those mountains so I think no affect as to the storms intensity..
Quoting 1274. StormJunkie:



The Hispaniola Spine will destroy her. Those peaks are not rubbish, trash, or junk. Systems do no like them. May still be enough to kick up an E coast swell, but I doubt it. This is not like having a big one off shore.
Go read what I was saying she was alive and well just a little dry...
Quoting 1290. Grothar:



Nope. LOL They must have seen we were serious that Bertha would form, although there was hardly a wisp left in the old girl. Some of the bloggers should look back around 8-10:30 to read what we were saying. Seriously, it happened very quickly.

Quoting 913. Grothar:

The morning shift





Care to name names? LOL
Mornin blog. Trash storm not looking so bat at the moment.
But now that I've woken up, look for the center to like explode or something.
Looks like the models are in good agreement at the moment.
1296. Grothar
Quoting 1285. StormTrackerScott:



Hey I had to chime in on trashy low that someone called it with my own spin:)


Some of the entries were funny last night, Scott. Of course along with very good analyses. :)
The most interesting part of the current forecast (with some uncertainly after three days) is what happens around the Southern Bahamas. A weaker system, if disrupted by land interaction, is not going to feel the trof as much and, SAL proliferation has not reached those waters this Summer so the SST's are real toasty in the Southern Bahamas region. Two possible outcomes IMHO; if the circulation arrives in the Southern Bahamas intact and sheer relaxes, the storm could intensify, feel the effects of the trof (which will also slow down the storm a little bit initially allowing it to stack up better), and swing out to sea as suggested by the current track. If the storm weakens considerably, but the circulation remains intact, we could have some festering remnants North of Hispanola which are not picked up by the trof.

Sunday and Monday are the days to keep a close watch on ridging, intensity of the system, the progress of the trof, and shear levels.

Approx Recon center

11:47:30Z 13.533N 58.050W
So what is up with the storm activity north of Hispaniola? It is wet, over warm, and not getting out of little Birtha's way.
There is also a wet cell moving off of Houston but I haven't looked at the shear over it.

With the generally warmer air over the globe, there is more moisture capacity and the tendency toward heavier rainfall events in my area. Does that extra capacity also let the dry air masses just suck up the clouds and account for increased naked eye swirls and longer droughts?
Must say Barbados radar is not junk. Updates surprisingly fast, and nice range.
Quoting 1298. nrtiwlnvragn:

Approx Recon center

11:47:30Z 13.533N 58.050W


Wow. With radar, microwave, and sat...I would have put rubbish center at 14 or higher. What'd I miss?
1302. Grothar
Quoting 1293. nrtiwlnvragn:



Care to name names? LOL


Sure, you had to go pick that one!! I couldn't help myself. :):) It was late.

The Doc will be on shortly, so we have to look like we are behaving.
1304. Grothar


Also noting that the current NHC intensity forecast for the Islands is right on the money so don't expect any surprises intensity-wise between now and the Islands ; Bertha continues racing toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 17 knots. As we saw last season, 17 knots is way too fast to allow the storm to intensity further because it would not be able to stack up vertically.
Quoting 1302. Grothar:

The Doc will be on shortly, so we have to look like we are behaving.


Ahh, the challenges of being a respectable member of this fine community of misfits and geniuses. I think it's pretty clear which category I fit in to.
mmmm? does it seem a tad south of the forcast track?
Good morning

It's an 83 feeling like 94, partly cloudy, under TS Warning, here on the island today.

I don't know what happened! I did the laundry (did not hang it to dry), watered three plants (did not mow the lawn), threw out the trash in my car (did not wash it), washed the kitchen floor (did not paint) and was too busy doing all that to take time out for the raindance. ;-) Hope I didn't jinx myself!

Hope all is well with everyone this morning!

Lindy
Latest vis-shot of the morning and the continued moderate shear that is not allowing any convection to build on the W-NW quadrant on approach to the Islands:

Quoting 1301. StormJunkie:



Wow. With radar, microwave, and sat...I would have put rubbish center at 14 or higher. What'd I miss?


Probably looked at one too many images, following trash hot towers and junky thunderstorms.
1311. Patrap
Latest HWRF rain swath


Nice! Thanks...
Quoting 1300. StormJunkie:

Must say Barbados radar is not junk. Updates surprisingly fast, and nice range.
1314. Grothar
Quoting 1306. StormJunkie:



Ahh, the challenges of being a respectable member of this fine community of misfits and geniuses. I think it's pretty clear which category I fit in to.


Ah, you're OK Junkie. Just a little odd is all. You add a certain flavor to the blog which we need. You've made me smile a few times, and that is not easy since I don't really have a good sense of humor. Stay the way you are.



Quoting hurricanewatcher61:Looks like the models are in good agreement at the moment.

May be true, but the NHC is wrong again. At 5 a.m., the initial position was 13 N and 57 W. Their forecast has the storm at 14 N and 57.6 in 12 hours time -- around 5 p.m. this afternoon. Well, at 8 a.m. in just 3 hours, the position is 13.6 N and 57.9 W. Actually, based on visible satellite imagery, Bertha's position appears to be a little north of 13.6, perhaps closer to 14 N, which is about 120 miles east of St. Lucia. This is some movement to the right of the initial forecast track. So, I guess they will have to make changes to the forecast track during the next update.
Quoting 1293. nrtiwlnvragn:



Care to name names? LOL
Pic looks like Sammy Hagar on the left? Hahahahaaaaa!
1317. Grothar
Maximum wind speed swaths. Looks like some do want to make it a hurricane after moving into the Bahamas



Quoting 1310. nrtiwlnvragn:



Probably looked at one too many images, following trash hot towers and junky thunderstorms.


Made me spit milk out my nose thank you very much...lol



Link



Quoting 1315. StormHunter53:

Quoting hurricanewatcher61:Looks like the models are in good agreement at the moment.

May be true, but the NHC is wrong again. At 5 a.m., the initial position was 13 N and 57 W. Their forecast has the storm at 14 N and 57.6 in 12 hours time -- around 5 p.m. this afternoon. Well, at 8 a.m. in just 3 hours, the position is 13.6 N and 57.9 W. Actually, based on visible satellite imagery, Bertha's position appears to be a little north of 13.6, perhaps closer to 14 N, which is about 120 miles east of St. Lucia. This is some movement to the right of the initial forecast track. So, I guess they will have to make changes to the forecast track during on the next update.


12H 01/1800Z 14.0N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

59.6 valid at 2 PM EST this afternoon.
Bertha is charging like she has a mission to invade Puerto Rico.
All the P.R. blog members screaming for rain (well all 2 of them) will fimally get the rain they've been asking for.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 12:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2014
Storm Name: Bertha (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 11:47:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°32'N 58°03'W (13.5333N 58.05W)
B. Center Fix Location: 109 miles (176 km) to the ENE (74°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 87 nautical miles (100 statute miles) to the NW (307°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 56° at 42kts (From between the NE and ENE at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 899m (2,949ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 335m (1,099ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 18 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) which was observed 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center at 11:35:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the WNW (298°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Temperature profile shows colder temps outside eye due to altitude change,
temp was a constant 22C after descent to low level near the center
Models Updated as I post, lol. No more loop, below are the current.

First RECON pass for the morning
Vortex message
13.5N 58.0W
1324. Grothar
Quoting 1292. forecaster1:

Go read what I was saying she was alive and well just a little dry...


I did read it. You hung in there well. I guess a lot of people did not see the dry air was removing itself rapidly. That is what actually surprised many of us; how quickly the dry air was pushed aside and the sudden burst of convection



Quoting 1273. HaoleboySurfEC:



Great swell producer. I will get a couple good days in.

Think it will come substantially closer to CONUS. Think interaction with Hispaniola will temporary weaken Bertha and it will end up further westward in the Bahamas.






Hboy, where are you located??? looking at this thing in WPB Florida frothing ready to surf.
Misread them a bit. On the 0650z 37H, I mistook the upper "wedge" for the center. On 1121z 89, I was looking at the low level clouds instead of the arc. The 1121z 36 clears it up though. Now I feel a bit wrong after observing Trash Bertha's innards.
1327. Relix
Quoting 1320. Sfloridacat5:

Bertha is charging like she has a mission to invade Puerto Rico.
All the P.R. blog members screaming for rain (well all 2 of them) will fimally get the rain they've been asking for.




I hope its not THAT much rain... :P
Quoting 1318. StormJunkie:





Made me spit milk out my nose thank you very much...lol



From same doc I referenced earlier:

" Cautionary Considerations
Microwave imagery to estimate TC location should be used with caution. The slanted viewing geometry of microwave polar-orbiting satellites is such that it places features it views slightly askew of their actual location. "


You have to know approach path to correct for angle.
1329. Relix
How the heck is Bertha supposed to survive 30-40 knots of shear ahead?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:

59.7 will be right, for sure. but not the latitude. The NHC has it 14 north this afternoon, but it's near 14 already.
Ncep Caribbean Desk has not posted yet this morning (probably digesting the impacts of Bertha before releasing their first review for this morning) but here is their discussion from yesterday as to possible rain amounts for the Islands. If Bertha continues to struggle with the westerly shear, the storm might end up "backloaded" in terms of the rains for the Islands; winds, some rain and waves will impact the Islands on the front end (depending on how well, or not, it is able to wrap some convection on the W-NW side as it passes over them) but the backside will be much wetter.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF BARBADOS. SEE NHC WEBSITE FOR
UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED WAVE IN THE TRADES WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO PUERTO RICO AND POSSIBLY THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES. ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...EXPECTING LARGEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS REACHING 25-50MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE
LEEWARD ISLES EXPECTING ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
Quoting 1328. nrtiwlnvragn:



From same doc I referenced earlier:

" Cautionary Considerations
Microwave imagery to estimate TC location should be used with caution. The slanted viewing geometry of microwave polar-orbiting satellites is such that it places features it views slightly askew of their actual location. "


You have to know approach path to correct for angle.


More good info, thank-you!!! So, I guess I'll be sticking to microwave for structure; not so much location. lol
Quoting 1315. StormHunter53:

Quoting hurricanewatcher61:Looks like the models are in good agreement at the moment.

May be true, but the NHC is wrong again. At 5 a.m., the initial position was 13 N and 57 W. Their forecast has the storm at 14 N and 57.6 in 12 hours time -- around 5 p.m. this afternoon. Well, at 8 a.m. in just 3 hours, the position is 13.6 N and 57.9 W. Actually, based on visible satellite imagery, Bertha's position appears to be a little north of 13.6, perhaps closer to 14 N, which is about 120 miles east of St. Lucia. This is some movement to the right of the initial forecast track. So, I guess they will have to make changes to the forecast track during the next update.

Actually RECON says its S of 13.6N and W of 57.9W RECON says it's at 13.5N 58.0W maybe a tad bit closer to 58.1W
1334. vis0
• CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA via the facilities of Aviationweather*.gov
• IMAGERY TYPE:: created from IR (colour) images** ~created~ by NOAA (NOT original NOAA /Aviation.org filters, used funktopGal-clr pebbles..."colour pebbles??, hey its what i called it ~1992ish)
• IMAGERY SUBJECT:: Invest 93L off the Antilles eastern edge/Rim
• IMAGERY PERIOD:: 201407-30;2245UTC till 201408-01;1015UTC
("thumbtac", a VIDs thumbnail has more info)


Do you Prefer the GIF versions but something like this would be a container of 16456.74 KBs, if you use FireFox(or browser that uses FFOX add-ons (are 3 good ones) or Chrome-life as "SRIron" look up "Smartvideo For Youtube" and tweak settings to buffer at a low percentage (1%) & tick On the replay choices and VIDs on or hosted elsewhere via youtube will replay as if GIF (you'll see al the frames including ones customized first/last frame delays AND you saved 12000+ KBs as this mp4 is 3,000Kbs. So get it NOW whiles supplies last...sorry my TV brain kicked in.(use mpc-HC to play them or VLC 2.0 greater...VLC is more fickle of the video be pro quality, meaning following pro-standards)

• CLUE:: Tropical formations create an somewhat circular outflow IF becoming stronger and a linear flow if weakening, now the colourful pebbles follow that rule and add push-pull motion identification...huh?(No one asked questions so you'll have to learn like archaeologist learn of past "breakthroughs" by trying to figure out the past from what was left behind and survived (save the servers).

• CLUE:: look for what appears as larger pebbles of floating water droplets in grey as if the lower moisture in grey is pushed upwards through the colourful pebbles EXAMPLES:: look at the Tropical Low formation furthest to the West  @~10Lat north of the DATE ID words Thu(Thursday) see what looks like a grey(colours as if 3D around it) bubble rising, notice 93L as i bit but not congealed (if i may use that word)somewhat spread out, the formation behind 93L also has one but sheer flattening the "rising pebble/bubble" as sheer if blowing off cloud tops thus you see flat top (Ξ) not bubbled (Ω) (not using scientific symbols "Ω" means as if top is bubbly in this example.)

**(NOT original NOAA /Aviation.org SAT filters, used funktopGal-clr pebbles..."colour pebbles??, hey its what i called it ~1992ish)

• If symbols used become character-demoted (you see the character value+Hex numbers instead of the symbol, occurs when one edits there comment AFTER its posted ) look up the VID at my wxretro site to read this comment as originally intended.

• (not directly weather related)::
DO NOT look for last (other) years SATELLITE VIDs at wxretro, i set them to private or delete them as to not fill up my account.

(WARNING, being a human being that likes" beauty i include "WxLadies/WxBabes with my scientific VIDs on Wxretro)

  You ask why not create another youtube account for each of my subject types?, i did and youtube removed my 4 other sites in 2005 ~Nov, in which i had 1 youtube site for wxchannel content, 1 youtube site for wxchannel music, 1 youtube site for wxbabes, 1 youtube site for my satellite imagery (had  thousands of hours of SAT. on over 800 VHS tapes) from 1978-1986 used 3 top loading VHS decks & 1 youtube site for ADs that appeared on WcChannel or i liked from 1978-2001.
  What happened? People (haters) complained even though i always placed credits OVERLAYED onto VIDs, BEFORE youtube placed credits, then i find out 2 complainers created similar sites and 2 of my user names were taken by adult related youtube sites, go figure.

As posted 1 day ago, BACK to more important things as the possibility for serious local flooding issues in the Antillies.
,peace
1335. Grothar
Quoting waveRoller:


Hboy, where are you located??? looking at this thing in WPB Florida frothing ready to surf.


Probably won't see any decent surf from Bertha until she gets north of the area.
And if she goes over Haiti/D.R. she may be so weak that her wind field won't produce much.

But hope Bertha misses Haiti and stays far enough off shore (too close to Fl and you'll get northerly side shore winds=sloppy/current) that a nice chest high groud swell comes rolling in as she passes by to the north.
Early morning - light winds/offshore and clean lines - are you excited yet?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

K, I see that. Thanks!
Looks more and more likely Puerto rico will receive a direct hit from Bertha even though the system is lopsided the islands will receive much needed rain and that's one happy thing about this system.
RECON going in for another fix
Quoting 1286. HaoleboySurfEC:



Yes directly over those peaks will destroy her. Agreed. Then it is game over. I'm thinking only a glancing blow.

There will be waves. It's more about direction than intensity for the east coast. I've seen minimal tropical storms throw great waves and enormous Cat 3+ storms fail to deliver. The waves go "somewhere", just not where I am. It's always a crap shoot but that current track would provide a couple "fun" days of summer surf.

Bigger isn't always better on the old east coast. Not many places can handle macking size. There are some New England point breaks that hold, but most other sandbars and jetties start to shut down after 8-10' faces.


I'll take SE wind chop from the islands. I just want anything to surf. But I'm hoping for some ground swell, probably recurve before that happens however.
1341. Grothar
Quoting 1319. nrtiwlnvragn:



12H 01/1800Z 14.0N 59.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

59.6 valid at 2 PM EST this afternoon.


The last fix I had was Coordinates: 13.6N 58.0W
Quoting 1303. JrWeathermanFL:




That is just sad.But hey who am I to judge?.
1343. ncstorm
what?..we were in the cone while I slept..shoot..I missed a chance of doom..

1344. Grothar
With the dry air clearing out more, I believe we shall see another burst of convection soon very close to the center.


Quoting 1320. Sfloridacat5:

Bertha is charging like she has a mission to invade Puerto Rico.
All the P.R. blog members screaming for rain (well all 2 of them) will fimally get the rain they've been asking for.



Come'on, maybe 2 educated bloggers. But you forgot to mention the bunch of ignorant lurkers (me included of course) :>)
Quoting 1251. ncstorm:



LOL SJ..I have been told Bacon wrapped crow is abundant and waiting for those who want that crispy texture..:)
Ah.... so that's where the bacon-wrapped ones went... saving them for breakfast, I see... we only had raspberry sauce last night....

Good Friday morning to all....

She has survive everything else so far. Mind of her own.
Quoting Relix:
How the heck is Bertha supposed to survive 30-40 knots of shear ahead?
1348. Grothar
More models are leaning towards a movement through the Windward Passage and missing a lot of land including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and possibly up to Cat 2.

Quoting 1344. Grothar:

With the dry air clearing out more, I believe we shall see another burst of convection soon very close to the center.




What's your take on the shear some here are posting that Bertha will face in a couple of hours?
Never know, might change again.
Quoting ncstorm:
what?..we were in the cone while I slept..shoot..I missed a chance of doom..

Quoting 1308. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

It's an 83 feeling like 94, partly cloudy, under TS Warning, here on the island today.

I don't know what happened! I did the laundry (did not hang it to dry), watered three plants (did not mow the lawn), threw out the trash in my car (did not wash it), washed the kitchen floor (did not paint) and was too busy doing all that to take time out for the raindance. ;-) Hope I didn't jinx myself!

Hope all is well with everyone this morning!

Lindy
Morning Lindy... sure hope all that effort pays off... meanwhile I see St Barts, St Kitts etc. are pessimistic about seeing any TS effects.... I just hope everybody out that way gets a bit of something rainwise....

Hopefully the islands get the rain they need out of this storm to put some kind of dent in it.I know cariboy has been begging for rain.
What's the last named storm to enter the Caribbean via Africa?
Still pretty possible IF Bertha makes it through the high wind shear, Hispanola, and if its foreward movement doesn't accelerate....
Then once it starts heading up the east coast or whatever, then it could become a hurricane. Like Maria.
Quoting 1320. Sfloridacat5:

Bertha is charging like she has a mission to invade Puerto Rico.
All the P.R. blog members screaming for rain (well all 2 of them) will fimally get the rain they've been asking for.


it was actually more like 8 PR bloggers screaming for rain, but ... yeah, we get the drift...
Quoting 1342. washingtonian115:

That is just sad.But hey who am I to judge?.
But this is just what the bloggers ordered... lol... they don't care how sad it looks, so long as it also wets their whistle.... A few hours of Nature's ale is good for what ails the NE Antilles....
It appears Bertha has defeated the odds so far....I feel confident that it will miss the east coast now and thats a good thing....the eastern Atlantic is very moist now...favorable conditions for what ever comes off Africa
1357. pottery
Good Morning !
Lovely Morning, and we even have a storm to look at.
Here, it's a still as a tomb, but expecting things to improve in a while with that sub-blob looming just off the east coast.

I have to do some yard work before the rains come (you can see I am optimistically hopeful) so I will see you lurkers, loafers and louts later.
1358. tkdaime
I Think they will adjust the track to the left hurricane centers track is off
1359. Grothar
Quoting 1349. nocanesplease:


What's your take on the shear some here are posting that Bertha will face in a couple of hours?


30kts of shear is pretty high. Bertha should be moving into when it enters the Caribbean and the shear tendency looks as if it may increase a little. It would prevent strengthening. But if it does miss most of the large land masses, which at this time is possible, the shear near the Bahamas is very low and very warm SST's. I don't expect it to be that strong in the Caribbean, but I am waiting for it to move North and it is very possible to reach hurricane status if it is not shredded

1360. Grothar
This is almost identical to what happened last night. There was nothing and suddenly we were watching a small arm of convection moving from a small cluster of storms, which began to wrap around the center. It looks like what is happening is almost identical to last night.

as dawn arrives  it appears the Nhc is manned by geniuses by there call last night. The market pre open crow futures are soaring. In other news 4 weather geeks are arrested poaching crows in Northern Florida. They were caught red handed with 3 dead and field dressed crows in there possession.
1362. Relix
Quoting 1359. Grothar:



30kts of shear is pretty high. Bertha should be moving into when it enters the Caribbean and the shear tendency looks as if it may increase a little. It would prevent strengthening. But if it does miss most of the large land masses, which at this time is possible, the shear near the Bahamas is very low and very warm SST's. I don't expect it to be that strong in the Caribbean, but I am waiting for it to move North and it is very possible to reach hurricane status if it is not shredded




Yeah, there's no way she's surviving that unscated. Will probably hope for a naked swirl moving between the Mona Passage, bringing some nice windy weather and lower rain than estimated at the moment. I just can't see it fighting that much shear.
mona channel is named after alittle island which can be seen from rincon p.rico. back in the early 70s illegal immigrants braved the crossing from dominican republic trying to find work in p rico.
Quoting 1360. Grothar:

This is almost identical to what happened last night. There was nothing and suddenly we were watching a small arm of convection moving from a small cluster of storms, which began to wrap around the center. It looks like what is happening is almost identical to last night.


Looks like shear is waiting for it though Gro.But I have seen weirder things happen...
1365. Grothar
This is an image of what is look liked before the sudden flareup. An arm of moisture began to move suddenly from the cluster to the NE and eventually filled the center

As it happened!!!!

1366. pottery
The sub-blob is threatening to pass north of us, sucked up into the main-blob.

Is this Authorised ??
It looks like the coc has jogged a little to the west in the last few satt frames; that is normal and particularly visible on the loops as a storm approaches land but should keep the storm on the current track threading the needle between PR and Hispanola...............Every little jog to the West would bring it over Hispanola and a greater disruption of the LLC.
If a weak storm tends to go west, why would Bertha go more NW or WNW?
1369. SLU
46.6 knots (~ 53.6 mph)
Tropical Storm
Quoting 1341. Grothar:



The last fix I had was


Gro! Bad person! *shakes head in disbelief*

;)
Nice outflow arc to the NW. She's trying to at least get rid of some of that dry air.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1373. pottery
Quoting WarEagle8:
If a weak storm tends to go west, why would Bertha go more NW or WNW?

Yea, but once there is consistent rotation, the Coriolis Effect associated with that tends to rotate the system northward.
Also, it ''looks'' a lot weaker that it is.
Just call me the new Grothar. Doc posts a new blog right after my first comment of the day.
umm,looks to being going a little west, "turns laptop on it's side" looks at it at a different angle!
Quoting 1363. islander101010:

mona channel is named after alittle island which can be seen from rincon p.rico. back in the early 70s illegal immigrants braved the crossing from dominican republic trying to find work in p rico.

The small island you can see from Rincon,PR is Desecheo not Mona island.
1377. SLU
53.6 knots (~ 61.7 mph)
Tropical Storm
Also happy to have some rain come down. We have had hardcore forest fires destroyed about 700 acres in Valle Nuevo, Constanza, Dominican Republic, a huge valley in between mountains and source of important bodies of water. We got a little rain system NE of DR that was a response to prayers, because it helped mitigate the fire that was going on for 2 weeks, when it rained for 3 hours straignt this past Wednesday.
If it interests you further, check out the aerial view of the fire here: http://www.geografiafisica.org/2014/07/ 29/superficie-quemada-incendio-valle-nuevo/It 's in Spanish, but those of you who don't speak the language can understand the imagery.
Considering Bertha's due course, it will be interesting to see it interact with the trough that's right on it's path.
1379. LargoFl
good morning!..TGIF.......well it seems the folks at NHC knew what they were doing yesterday when lots of people here said 93 was dead but..NHC increased it to 80%...now we have Bertha.....good looking out NHC..good job.
Quoting 1325. waveRoller:



Hboy, where are you located??? looking at this thing in WPB Florida frothing ready to surf.


SC but I would consider Wrightsville Beach the break I frequent the most. I should see "something." You may also. Don't you guys get it once it goes above the Bahamas on the backside of the storm? Never made it as far south as you. New Smyrna is the farthest south I've ever been on the east coast.

Hope you get some! Stop frothing, you'll ruin the furniture.
1381. LargoFl
Quoting 1336. Sfloridacat5:



Probably won't see any decent surf from Bertha until she gets north of the area.
And if she goes over Haiti/D.R. she may be so weak that her wind field won't produce much.

But hope Bertha misses Haiti and stays far enough off shore (too close to Fl and you'll get northerly side shore winds=sloppy/current) that a nice chest high groud swell comes rolling in as she passes by to the north.
Early morning - light winds/offshore and clean lines - are you excited yet?


Based on current projected path, if I had my way I would head to a little island off Massachusetts. Actually a bunch of new England breaks could be good fun.


Quoting 1340. waveRoller:



I'll take SE wind chop from the islands. I just want anything to surf. But I'm hoping for some ground swell, probably recurve before that happens however.


Dude, I'm jonesing. I've been working so much the last 6 months. Finally some free time. I've been tying myself to the side of the pool and paddling in place to keep my paddle arms in shape.