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2015 July

Guillermo Gathers Steam in NE Pacific; Invest 94L Clings to Life

Hurricane Guillermo is stepping up its game in the Northeast Pacific, as it moves along a steady west-northwest course that could bring it near the Hawaiian Islands next week. In the Atlantic, Invest 94L shows little sign of strengthening, while in the Northwest Pacific, Tropical Storm Souledor could be approaching Japan as a strong typhoon next week.

Bob Henson • 5:54 PM GMT on July 31, 2015

What to Expect from El Niño: How Much Snow Back East?

Some of the impacts from El Niño across the United States are fairly straightforward: hurricane suppression in the Atlantic, for example. Then there’s snowfall in the Northeast, where El Niño is just one of several big factors at work. The powerful El Niño now taking shape will face off this winter with a recent tendency toward cold and snow across the northeast U.S.

Bob Henson • 3:43 PM GMT on July 30, 2015

Little Change to 94L; Hawaii Watching Guillermo; TC 2 Kills 27 in Myanmar/Bangladesh

A strong tropical wave that pushed off the coast of Africa on Wednesday (Invest 94L) was located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands on Thursday morning, and was headed west at 15 mph. 94L does have conditions that favor some slow development over the next few days.

Jeff Masters • 1:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2015

Invest 94L Off the Coast of Africa May Slowly Develop

The first African tropical wave worthy of being classified by NHC as an area of interest (an "Invest") has emerged from the coast of Africa, and lies a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Invest 94L has conditions that favor some slow development over the next few days.

Jeff Masters • 3:29 PM GMT on July 29, 2015

What to Expect from El Niño: North America

We’re now well into the ramp-up phase of what promises to be one of the top three El Niño events of the last 60-plus years. Later this week, Jeff Masters will take a look at the global consequences of El Niño for weather and climate. In today’s post, we’ll focus on North America, which has some of the world’s clearest tie-ins to El Niño--not surprisingly, since we’re located just north of the oceanic heart of the phenomenon.

Bob Henson • 3:16 PM GMT on July 28, 2015

Quiet in the Atlantic; Two Disturbances for Hawaii to Watch

The tropics have fallen silent the past two days, with no named storms anywhere on the planet. The tropical cyclone-free period will likely be short lived, though, as Invest 90E, located in the Eastern Pacific about 1,050 miles southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Monday morning, may develop into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters • 3:29 PM GMT on July 27, 2015

Record Ocean Temperatures Threaten Hawaii's Coral Reefs

Record warm sea surface temperatures in Hawaii's waters threaten to bring a second consecutive year of record coral bleaching to their precious coral reefs this summer. According to NOAA, ocean temperatures in the waters near and to the south of the Hawaiian Islands were 1 - 2°C (1.8 - 3.6°F) above average in June, which was the warmest these waters have been since record keeping began over a century ago.

Jeff Masters • 7:34 PM GMT on July 24, 2015

Fewer but Stronger Global Tropical Cyclones Due to Ocean Warming

The observed 0.3°C (0.5°F) warming of Earth's oceans over the past 30 years has made more energy available to tropical cylones, leading to an average increase in wind speed of about 3 mph (1.3 m/s) for each storm--but 6.1 fewer named storms globally each year because of the warmer oceans.

JeffMasters, • 3:36 PM GMT on July 23, 2015

Weather Underground Takes Over The Weather Channel in New Weeknight Series

A new "Weather Underground" live cable TV show will be airing weekdays from 6-8 p.m. ET on The Weather Channel, beginning on August 24. The new show will appeal to everyone’s inner weather geek, featuring unique insights into the science behind weather and forecasting.

Jeff Masters • 1:25 PM GMT on July 22, 2015

What the Weekend Rains Did to Southern California—and What a Real Hurricane Could Do

After three years of fierce drought, some of the heaviest midsummer rains on record struck Southern California over the weekend, facilitated by the remnants of former Hurricane Dolores. As unusual as the rain was, there could be even more to come in the next several months, as an already-strong El Niño event continues to gather steam. History also tells us that we can’t rule out the possibility of a full-blown hurricane coming ashore: this apparently happened in 1858.

Bob Henson • 3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2015

June 2015: Earth's Warmest June on Record

June 2015 was Earth's warmest June since global record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA and NASA. June 2015's warmth makes the year-to-date period (January - June) the warmest such period on record, and 2015 is likely to be Earth's 2nd consecutive warmest year on record.

Jeff Masters • 4:10 PM GMT on July 20, 2015

An Avalanche of New Models for Severe Weather Prediction

Not so long ago, forecasters at NOAA had just one high-resolution computer model to tell them where thunderstorms might erupt later in the day. Now there’s a whole cornucopia of models that project how storms will evolve, hour by hour, at fine scale. Many of these models were tested at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed this spring, along with another model provides what was once thought to be either pointless or impossible: explicit modeling of showers and thunderstorms up to five days in advance.

Bob Henson • 6:33 PM GMT on July 18, 2015

State of the Climate Report: Warm and Warmer (except for eastern North America)

The 2014 State of the Climate makes it plain that last year was a landmark in global warming. The record high in globally averaged temperature (a mark almost certain to be topped in 2015) got plenty of press, but other records were set as well.

Bob Henson • 8:51 PM GMT on July 17, 2015

A Cape Verde Wave in the Central Atlantic

The ferocious wind shear associated with El Niño has remained far enough west to give a tropical wave in the central Atlantic at least a slender chance of development. Meanwhile, tropical action in the hyperactive 2015 Pacific season looks set to take something of a breather over the next several days.

Bob Henson • 3:41 PM GMT on July 17, 2015

Typhoon Nangka Brings Torrential Rains to Japan

Extreme rainfall is dousing much of Japan in the wake of Typhoon Nangka, which made landfall at 11:07 pm Thursday local time (10:07 am EDT Thursday) near Muroto City, on the south coast of the island of Shikoku. Hurricane Dolores, off Mexico's west coast, may send moisture toward the southwest U.S. toward the weekend.

Bob Henson • 7:11 PM GMT on July 16, 2015

Hurricane Dolores Hits Category 4 Strength

A pulse of rapid intensification late Tuesday and early Wednesday pushed Hurricane Dolores to borderline Category 4 intensity, making it the earliest the Northeast Pacific has seen its third Cat. 4 storm in a given season. Meanwhile, a weakened Typhoon Nangka continues heading toward Japan, where it could bring high winds and heavy rain to heavily populated areas.

Bob Henson • 7:37 PM GMT on July 15, 2015

Moisture-Packed Atmosphere Fueling a Week of Severe Weather

While the North Atlantic has yet to produce a hurricane this year (see our post from Tuesday morning for a full tropical update), extremely muggy air across a broad swath of the Midwest has millions of people wiping their brows, downing untold gallons of iced beverages, and keeping an eye out for severe storms.

Bob Henson • 7:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2015

A Busy Northern Hemisphere: Five Named Systems in the Atlantic and Pacific

The “string of pearls” effect continued on Tuesday morning over the Northern Hemisphere, with an arc of tropical cyclones extending from south of Japan to east of the United States. Typhoon Nangka poses a threat to Japan late this week, while Tropical Storm Claudette is weakening in the northwest Atlantic.

Bob Henson • 3:40 PM GMT on July 14, 2015

Chan-hom Makes Final Landfall in North Korea

After nicking the coast of China as a Category 2 typhoon on Saturday afternoon local time, Tropical Depression Chan-hom made a second landfall in North Korea on Monday morning. Meanwhile, the central Pacific remains very active, and Typhoon Nangka threatens to strike Japan as a strong typhoon late this week.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters • 3:33 PM GMT on July 13, 2015

Category 2 Typhoon Chan-hom Makes Landfall 80 Miles From Shanghai, China

Typhoon Chan-hom made landfall in the Chinese island city of Zhoushan, Zhejiang Province, about 80 miles south-southeast of Shanghai, at 4:40 p.m local time Saturday, reported the official Chinese news agency. At landfall, Chan-hom was a Category 2 storm with winds of 100 mph, making it the strongest typhoon to pass within 100 miles of Shanghai in at least the past 35 years. Since Shanghai was on the weak (left) side of the typhoon, the city did not see strong winds.

Jeff Masters • 4:21 PM GMT on July 11, 2015

Weakening Typhoon Chan-hom Still a Major Storm Surge Threat for Shanghai

Category 3 Typhoon Chan-hom is steadily weakening as it heads northwest at 10 mph towards China. The storm has slowed down and turned more to the north, and it is possible that the center of Chan-hom will not make landfall in China. However, Chan-hom could still drive one of the highest storm surges ever observed into Shanghai.

Jeff Masters • 4:08 PM GMT on July 10, 2015

Category 3 Chan-hom: One of Shanghai's Strongest Typhoons on Record?

Intensifying Category 4 Typhoon Chan-hom is headed northwestwards at 15 mph towards China, and appears poised to make landfall as one of the strongest typhoons on record for a portion of the country unused to strong typhoons. Of particular concern is Chan-hom's storm surge, which has the potential to bring the highest water levels ever observed into Shanghai, China's most populous city, with 23 million people in the metro area.

Jeff Masters • 12:29 AM GMT on July 10, 2015

Tropical Storm Ela Little Threat to Hawaii; Category 3 Chan-hom Heads for China

Tropical Storm Ela, the first named storm of the 2015 Central Pacific hurricane season, got its name Wednesday night when an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found a small area of 40 mph winds to the northeast of the center. Our two most reliable track models show Ela dissipating by Saturday; I doubt Ela will bring much rain to the islands, and high surf will the main impact on Hawaii.

JeffMasters, • 4:22 PM GMT on July 09, 2015

TD 4-E Little Threat to Hawaii; Switzerland has its 2nd Warmest Temperature on Record

Tropical Depression Four-E spun into life Tuesday night in the waters about 1000 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, and is headed northwest at 16 mph on a path that should keep the center of the storm about 200 miles to the northeast of the islands at the time of closest approach on Saturday. Satellite loops show an unimpressive storm, with heavy thunderstorm activity not is not particularly intense or well-organized.

Jeff Masters • 4:05 PM GMT on July 08, 2015

Typhoon Chan-hom Heads for China; Invest 96E a Threat to Hawaii

Category 1 Typhoon Chan-hom is headed westwards towards China, where it is expected to make landfall on Friday or Saturday. Hawaii needs to watch Invest 96E, located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big Island. 96E is close to tropical depression status, with a pronounced low-level spin and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity.

Jeff Masters • 4:22 PM GMT on July 07, 2015

Germany Breaks its All-Time Heat Record

Germany broke its all-time heat record on Sunday July 5, when the mercury soared to 104.5°F (40.3°C) at Kitzingen in Bavaria. An even higher reading of 105.4°F (40.8°C) was recorded at the University of Karlsruhe, but this is not considered an official station. Numerous cities in Germany set all-time heat records over the weekend, including Saturday's 100.2°F (37.9°C ) reading at Berlin's Dahlem station.

Jeff Masters • 4:24 AM GMT on July 06, 2015

All-time July National Heat Records Fall on Three Continents

Brutally hot conditions fried portions of three continents during the first three days of July, and four nations have already set all-time July national heat records this month: the Netherlands, the U.K., Thailand, and Colombia.

Jeff Masters • 4:56 PM GMT on July 03, 2015

Kids, Cars, and Heatstroke: A Lethal Summer Mix

Even at relatively cool ambient temperatures, the temperature rise in vehicles is significant on clear, sunny days and puts infants at risk for hyperthermia. Vehicles heat up rapidly, with the majority of the temperature rise occurring within the first 15 to 30 minutes. Leaving the windows opened slightly does not significantly slow the heating process or decrease the maximum temperature attained.

Bob Henson • 3:21 PM GMT on July 02, 2015

Unprecedented June Heat on Four Continents; Wimbledon Roasts in Record Heat

Unprecedented June heat scorched portions of four continents during the past week, and many all-time heat records are likely to fall across multiple continents this July as the peak heat of summer arrives for what has been the hottest year in recorded human history. Already on July 1, in Wimbledon, England--site of the classic Wimbledon tennis tournament--players are enduring the city's hottest day in recorded history.

JeffMasters, • 3:52 PM GMT on July 01, 2015