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Unprecedented June Heat on Four Continents; Wimbledon Roasts in Record Heat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:52 PM GMT on July 01, 2015

Unprecedented June heat scorched portions of four continents during the past week, and many all-time heat records are likely to fall across multiple continents this July as the peak heat of summer arrives for what has been the hottest year in recorded human history. Already on July 1, in Wimbledon, England--site of the classic Wimbledon tennis tournament--players are enduring the city's hottest day in tournament history. The mercury hit 96.3°F (35.7°C) at Kew Gardens, the nearest recording site, topping the previous record of 94.3°F (34.6°C) on June 26, 1976. London's Heathrow Airport has risen to 98.1°F (36.7°C) so far on July 1. This is not only a new all-time July record at that location, but also a July heat record for the UK, topping the previous record of 97.7°F (36.5°C) in Wisley on July 19, 2006.

We've already seen two of the planet's top ten deadliest heat waves in history over the past two months; the Pakistani government announced on Wednesday that the death toll from the brutal June heat wave in Pakistan's largest city, Karachi, had hit 1,250. According to statistics from EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, this makes the 2015 heat wave in Pakistan the 8th deadliest in world history. The heat wave that hit India in May, claiming approximately 2,500 lives, ranks as the 5th deadliest:

Death Tolls From the 10 Deadliest Heat Waves in World History
1) Europe, 2003: 71,310
2) Russia, 2010: 55,736
3) Europe, 2006: 3,418
4) India, 1998: 2,541
5) India, 2015: 2,500
6) U.S. and Canada, 1936: 1,693
7) U.S., 1980: 1,260
8) Pakistan, 2015: 1,250
9) India, 2003: 1,210
10) India, 2002: 1,030
10) Greece and Turkey, 1987: 1,030


Figure 1. Novak Djokovic of Serbia wipes his face during the hottest day in Wimbledon history, in a match against Jarkko Nieminen of Finland, at the All England Lawn Tennis Championships in Wimbledon, London, Wednesday July 1, 2015. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant).

Extreme June heat hits four continents
Portions of four continents--Asia, Europe, North America, and South America--broke all-time June heat records during the past week, with some locations surpassing their all-time heat records for any date:

Asia In addition to the record deadly heat wave that hit Pakistan over the past few weeks, other portions of Asia also saw extreme June heat. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Ashkabad, the capital of Turkmenistan, set a new all-time record (for any month) with 117°F (47.2°C) on June 30, 2015, smashing the old record of 46.7°C from June 30, 1995. The national all-time heat record of June for Kazakhstan of 45.0°C came within 0.5°C of being matched, as well.

Europe
An extreme jet stream configuration is in place over Western Europe, where a strong ridge of high pressure has brought the warmest June temperatures ever recorded to the Spanish cities of Madrid (39.1° on June 28) and Toledo (40.8° on June 30).

The heat will continue over much of Western Europe the remainder of the week, when the hottest temperatures since 2006 are expected. According to Meteo France, on Wednesday, the high temperature at the official Montsouris station in Paris, France hit 103.5°F (39.7°C), the second warmest temperature ever measured there, and not far from Paris' all-time record of 104.7°F (40.4°C) set in July 1947. At least three station in France set all-time heat records:

Boulogne-sur-Mer (station opened in 1947): 35.4°C (Previous record 34.8°C on 08/112003)
Dieppe (station opened in 1949): 38.3°C (Previous record 37°C on 07/09/2006)
Melun (station opened in 1947): 39.4°C (Previous record 38.9°C on 08/122003)

North America A searing heat wave unprecedented for June scorched the Northwest U.S. and Western Canada last weekend, sending temperatures soaring to their highest June levels in recorded history for portions of Washington, Idaho, Montana, and British Columbia. Both Idaho and Washington set all-time high temperature records for the month of June on Sunday. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the 113°F measured in Walla Walla, Washington beat that state's previous June record of 112°F, set at John Day Dam on June 18, 1961. In addition, the 111°F reading at Lewiston, Idaho was that state's hottest June temperature on record. An automated station at Pittsburg Landing, Idaho hit 116°F, but that reading will have to be verified before being considered official. A few stations had their hottest temperature for any day in recorded history on Sunday, June 28:

• Chief Joseph Dam, Washington, hit 113 degrees, topping the previous all-time record of 110 degrees most recently set on July 23, 2006. This is located near the town of Bridgeport, in north-central Washington. Records date to 1949.
• LaCrosse, Washington, tied their all-time record high of 113 degrees, set previously on Aug. 4, 1961. LaCrosse is in eastern Washington, about 40 miles west-northwest of Pullman. Records, there, date to 1931.
• Chelan, Washington, reached 110 degrees, topping their previous all-time record set just one day earlier (109 degrees). Prior to this heat wave, their all-time record was 106 degrees set most recently on July 22, 1985. Records date to 1958.
• Omak, Washington, also reached 110 degrees, topping their previous all-time record of 109 degrees set on July 8, 2001. Records date to 1931 (Maximiliano Herrera points out, though, that the station has moved 3 times, so this record may be unrepresentative of the conditions at all 3 locations.)
• Bonners Ferry, Idaho, soared to 105 degrees, eclipsing their previous all-time record of 104 degrees on July 16, 1941. Records date to 1907. 

Thanks go to TWC's Jon Erdman for compiling this list.

South America
Prior to 2015, the hottest Colombia had ever been in June was 40.8°C in June 1973 at Guaymaral. That mark was tied on June 20, 2015, at Agustin Codazzi. That mark was smashed on June 25, when both Valledupar and Urumitia hit 41.6°C. On June 27, Urumitia, Colombia beat the new June national record, with a 42.0°C reading. Three major cities, Cartagena, Santa Marta and Riohacha all set their all-time heat records in June. Argentina and Venezuela also recorded their highest June temperatures ever recorded. Thanks go to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera for these stats.

Jeff Masters

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters

DC endures worst storms since 2012

Silver Spring, MD last night
Uh oh, there's that word again.
Quoting 2. Naga5000:

Uh oh, there's that word again.

oh dear.
Thanks Dr.; record heat waves in parts of the world and record snowfall in other parts during the winter months in recent years. This past winter for the US was brutal for many parts with the "dip" of polar air right into the heart of Conus then the winter storm issues with the lows causing record snowfall in parts of the NE.

Home builders around the world need to take note as they weatherize and insulate future homes that they build for the masses; running air in the summer and heat in the winter is very expensive if you live in a poorly insulated abode and are subject to utility bills (and particularly for those on a fixed income [or no income] if that is the case).
Quoting 2. Naga5000:

Uh oh, there's that word again.


I would say it's about to get hot in here but that comment is a little late, considering we're already experiencing the hottest year on record partially due to climate change
Thank you for the new entry, Jeffrey!
Blizzard over south South Argentina:
-2,3C in Ushuaia and more than 6 inches of snow paralyzes services in Argentina:










Source (in Portuguese): Link
Quoting 1. wxgeek723:

Thanks Dr. Masters

DC endures worst storms since 2012

Silver Spring, MD last night

.
Thanks for your continued comprehensive monitoring and reporting of global weather and climate events, Jeff. I was writing this for the previous blog entry comments, but I am learning to double check for new entries by you or Bob Henson before hitting the "Post Comment" button when I put a lot or effort into a comment.

I see that your current post is simply reporting without attribution, because that it the easy part. The difficult task will be to figure out why these extreme heat waves are happening at this time, and determining any supportable connections to AGW/CC. Building a case based on solid scientific evidence and analysis has got to be a real challenge, even for people like you and the other scientists who devote their careers and lives to such work. El Niño is likely a component of the heat-wave-laden NH summer we are experiencing, and I look forward to future blog posts on that relationship and evidence for attribution.

Switching from commenting on Dr. Masters post to a regular poster's enthusiastic comments about El Niño...

With respect to that still developing El Niño, I watch regulars like you, STScott, with amusement as you seem to ride "potential" extreme events from their first appearance on 10-day forecast on a low-skill model. However, this time it is looking more and more likely that your current fascination and excitement may end up with what you began wish-casting for months ago. And that is a super El Niño that failed to finish development last last year because major atmospheric elements failed to cooperate. This year, however, even though the seasonal timing is atypical for an El Niño, it looks like a decent probability that you might be able to crow instead of eating crow.

Regarding the current El Niño which is continuing to strengthen, here's an interesting WWB graph from Philip Klotzbach.(Webber, I see this as a simple and effective communication of a critical element. What's your take on it's value as a leading indicator of a strong El Niño?):


The ENSO discussions here recently have been mostly limited in scope - but there are plenty of good posts and discussions around the internet. Here's a few that I monitor.


NOAA's climgate.gov ENSO Blog


The 2015 El Niño thread at Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Forum

And here is a LINK to a Rob Painting post yesterday at the Skeptical Science website titled "A Southern Hemisphere Booster of Super El Niño" that adds some interesting detail and nuance to what turns a regular El Niño into a "super" El Niño.

11:25 edited for clarity.
Quoting 5. pipelines:



I would say it's about to get hot in here but that comment is a little late, considering we're already experiencing the hottest year on record partially due to climate change


Mostly due to El Nino and positive PDO, but like termites in your house structure, Climate Change is happening and the consequences are likely to be overstated short term, followed by understated and catastrophic long term.
Quoting 11. georgevandenberghe:



Mostly due to El Nino and positive PDO, but like termites in your house structure, Climate Change is happening and the consequences are likely to be overstated short term, followed by understated and catastrophic long term.


Excellent imagery.
I noticed a conversion error.

"The mercury hit 96.3°F (35.7°C) at Kew Gardens, the nearest recording site, topping the previous record of 96.3°F (34.6°C) on June 26, 1976."

34.6 is about 94.3

It should read:
"The mercury hit 96.3°F (35.7°C) at Kew Gardens, the nearest recording site, topping the previous record of 94.3°F (34.6°C) on June 26, 1976."

When will the United States modernize and join the rest of the world and go metric.
#10 - Xulonn

I don't consider Dr. Masters' posts about El Nino to be wish-casting. He is rather circumspect and factual in reporting about it's potential and status, IMO.

But on reading your post again, are you referring to STS, Dr. M, or both?
The mercury hit 96.3°F (35.7°C) at Kew Gardens, the nearest recording site, topping the previous record of 96.3°F (34.6°C) on June 26, 1976.

Hi Dr. Masters,

I noticed in your post above the comparison regarding the Fahrenheit temperature is the same.
Quoting 2. Naga5000:
Uh oh, there's that word again.
Unfortunately, the use of the word unprecedented is not unprecedented here at the Masters' blog.

Quoting 3. aquak9:


oh dear.


Seems like we can't get away from the obviousness of unprecedented, no matter how hard we try. Maybe the synonym "epoch-making"may be a better fit, since that is what we literally seem to be doing?
Quoting 11. georgevandenberghe:



Mostly due to El Nino and positive PDO, but like termites in your house structure, Climate Change is happening and the consequences are likely to be overstated short term, followed by understated and catastrophic long term.

They are hugely underestimated right now.
Quoting 13. VashonIsland:

I noticed a conversion error.

"The mercury hit 96.3°F (35.7°C) at Kew Gardens, the nearest recording site, topping the previous record of 96.3°F (34.6°C) on June 26, 1976."

34.6 is about 94.3

It should read:
"The mercury hit 96.3°F (35.7°C) at Kew Gardens, the nearest recording site, topping the previous record of 94.3°F (34.6°C) on June 26, 1976."

When will the United States modernize and join the rest of the world and go metric.



When you pry the imperial system from our cold, dead hands, my good chum. ;)
Quoting 13. VashonIsland:

(snip)

When will the United States modernize and join the rest of the world and go metric.


Countries Not Using the Metric System (in red)


A couple weeks ago I was on a site and this was brought up. A commenter said there's no way 'we' (Americans) would 'give up our freedom' and convert to metric. I had to respond with a 'yeah, and Liberia and Myanmar are right there with us!' Unfortunately my sarcasm was lost on the guy. And I don't know how using Celsius as opposed to Fahrenheit affects anyone's freedom...
Quoting 20. LAbonbon:


Countries Not Using the Metric System (in red)


A couple weeks ago I was on a site and this was brought up. A commenter said there's no way 'we' (Americans) would 'give up our freedom' and convert to metric. I had to respond with a 'yeah, and the Liberia and Myanmar are right there with us!' Unfortunately my sarcasm was lost on the guy. And I don't know how using Celsius as opposed to Fahrenheit affects anyone's freedom...


Let's scrap the whole thing and measure temperature by a feeling related scale of 1 - 10, with 1 being "better than anything I have ever experienced" and 10 being "the worst thing you have ever experienced". For example, it is currently 90F, with a heat index of 97F, and a dew point of 72F. I would say it is a 7 outside, not the worst summer heat I have been in, but bad enough that after 15 minutes you need to fully change your clothing because sweat. That inconvenience of needing multiple pairs of underwear in a day pushed the 6 to a 7.

Much easier and accurate. :)
Quoting 13. VashonIsland:

I noticed a conversion error.

When will the United States modernize and join the rest of the world and go metric.

I am all for that. Unfortunately, some political party will say that it's a liberal conspiracy; an attempt to turn us into a socialist country.
Pursuant to your chart below (LA), the Continental US is behind the curve globally on the metric issue, but Alaska (in the red on both) is ahead of the curve on climate change.......................................... :)

Quoting 21. Naga5000:



Let's scrap the whole thing and measure temperature by a feeling related scale of 1 - 10, with 1 being "better than anything I have ever experienced" and 10 being "the worst thing you have ever experienced". For example, it is currently 90F, with a heat index of 97F, and a dew point of 72F. I would say it is a 7 outside, not the worst summer heat I have been in, but bad enough that after 15 minutes you need to fully change your clothing because sweat. That inconvenience of needing multiple pairs of underwear in a day pushed the 6 to a 7.

Much easier and accurate. :)

Be careful...In a warming world, scores on your scale may go down (improve) over time.
Quoting 10. Xulonn:

Thanks for your continued comprehensive monitoring and reporting of global weather and climate events, Jeff. I was writing this for the previous blog entry comments, but I am learning to double check for new entries by you or Bob Henson before hitting the "Post Comment" button when I put a lot or effort into a comment.

I see that your current post is simply reporting without attribution, because that it the easy part. The difficult task will be to figure out why these extreme heat waves are happening at this time, and determining any supportable connections to AGW/CC. Building a case based on solid scientific evidence and analysis has got to be a real challenge, even for people like you and the other scientists who devote their careers and lives to such work. El Nio is likely a component of the heat-wave-laden NH summer we are experiencing, and I look forward to future blog posts on that relationship and evidence for attribution.

Switching from commenting on Dr. Masters post to a regular poster's enthusiastic comments about El Nio...

With respect to that still developing El Nio, I watch regulars like you, STScott, with amusement as you seem to ride "potential" extreme events from their first appearance on 10-day forecast on a low-skill model. However, this time it is looking more and more likely that your current fascination and excitement may end up with what you began wish-casting for months ago. And that is a super El Nio that failed to finish development last last year because major atmospheric elements failed to cooperate. This year, however, even though the seasonal timing is atypical for an El Nio, it looks like a decent probability that you might be able to crow instead of eating crow.

Regarding the current El Nio which is continuing to strengthen, here's an interesting WWB graph from Philip Klotzbach.(Webber, I see this as a simple and effective communication of a critical element. What's your take on it's value as a leading indicator of a strong El Nio?):


The ENSO discussions here recently have been mostly limited in scope - but there are plenty of good posts and discussions around the internet. Here's a few that I monitor.


NOAA's climgate.gov ENSO Blog


The 2015 El Nio thread at Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Forum

And here is a LINK to a Rob Painting post yesterday at the Skeptical Science website titled "A Southern Hemisphere Booster of Super El Nio" that adds some interesting detail and nuance to what turns a regular El Nio into a "super" El Nio.

11:25 edited for clarity.


The overall look of this ENSO is much more widespread 2015 vrs 1997 although 1997 was stronger to date as most of the heat was near South America. What appears to be happening is that we are about to witness the highest concentration of Oceanic Heat content to be focused across Nino 3.4 hence the reason why we may infact blow by 1997 at its peak come Fall. We could very well have a 2.5C El-Nino with one that is centered across Nino 3 & Nino 3.4 unlike 1997 across Nino 1&2.


This pic is ominous no matter how you slice it and this signature is going to cause all hell to break loose across the South come Fall/Winter especially across FL & California.



Quoting 24. Midnight092289:


Be careful...In a warming world, scores on your scale may go down (improve) over time.


That is true, then we would need an external adjustment...oh you know what. Forget it, Imperial System it is. All hail the great Fahrenheit!
Hello everyone!
After finishing GCSE's (The UK's national exams) and taking a well needed vacation I finally have the time to focus on weather again! So far today in North-West England the temperature has reached 33c (91.4F), which is certainly the hottest day I can remember for years, and tomorrow is forecast to be even hotter.
Quoting 22. SouthTampa:

I am all for that. Unfortunately, some political party will say that it's a liberal conspiracy; an attempt to turn us into a socialist country.
Yep. But then again, why would we Americans want to adopt a system used in France when we're completely happy with the oh-so-logical system of weights and measures we use now, one that was developed by noting that the length of three barleycorns is an inch, that the distance between your outstretched hand and your nose is a yard, that a cup is the amount of water you can hold in your hands, and that a handy-sized throwing stone weighs a pound? I mean, really?

Thanks for your continued comprehensive monitoring and reporting of global weather and climate events, Jeff. I was writing this for the previous blog entry comments, but I am learning to double check for new entries by you or Bob Henson before hitting the "Post Comment" button when I put a lot or effort into a comment.

I see that your current post is simply reporting without attribution, because that it the easy part. The difficult task will be to figure out why these extreme heat waves are happening at this time, and determining any supportable connections to AGW/CC. Building a case based on solid scientific evidence and analysis has got to be a real challenge, even for people like you and the other scientists who devote their careers and lives to such work. El Niño is likely a component of the heat-wave-laden NH summer we are experiencing, and I look forward to future blog posts on that relationship and evidence for attribution.

Switching from commenting on Dr. Masters post to a regular poster's enthusiastic comments about El Niño...

With respect to that still developing El Niño, I watch regulars like you, STScott, with amusement as you seem to ride "potential" extreme events from their first appearance on 10-day forecast on a low-skill model. However, this time it is looking more and more likely that your current fascination and excitement may end up with what you began wish-casting for months ago. And that is a super El Niño that failed to finish development last last year because major atmospheric elements failed to cooperate. This year, however, even though the seasonal timing is atypical for an El Niño, it looks like a decent probability that you might be able to crow instead of eating crow.

Regarding the current El Niño which is continuing to strengthen, here's an interesting WWB graph from Philip Klotzbach.(Webber, I see this as a simple and effective communication of a critical element. What's your take on it's value as a leading indicator of a strong El Niño?):


The ENSO discussions here recently have been mostly limited in scope - but there are plenty of good posts and discussions around the internet. Here's a few that I monitor.


NOAA's climgate.gov ENSO Blog

The 2015 El Niño thread at Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Forum

And here is a LINK to a Rob Painting post yesterday at the Skeptical Science website titled "A Southern Hemisphere Booster of Super El Niño" that adds some interesting detail and nuance to what turns a regular El Niño into a "super" El Niño.

11:25 edited for clarity.



your post is long but it is well written....thanx for clearing a point as with a previous poster i agree...doc is excellent at not hyping or blowing things out of proportion
It's over 20 years since the UK officially converted to Celcius from Fahrenheit, but old timers like me still think in Fahrenheit. The tv and press weather forecasts often still use both.

Funnily enough, when the papers report cold winter temperatures, they give Celcius figures, but hot summer weather is reported in Fahrenheit.
Quoting 20. LAbonbon:


Countries Not Using the Metric System ............ And I don't know how using Celsius as opposed to Fahrenheit affects anyone's freedom...
because, you know, black helicopters.
Quoting 26. Naga5000:



That is true, then we would need an external adjustment...oh you know what. Forget it, Imperial System it is. All hail the great Fahrenheit!

What terrifies me the most is the idea that there is about a twenty year lag for the atmosphere to respond to CO2 emittance, meaning today's extreme events may be the results of CO2 we pumped up there in the 90s.

I'm moving to Mars.
Quoting 33. tampabaymatt:




This why its easier to predict what might be coming as the strongest El-Nino's usually come with lots of rain across FL however the graph you posted some of those events were only moderate with 1997, 1987, 1982 being the strongest of that years you posted. A 2.0C to 2.5C ENSO pretty much GTY's a wet winter across FL also expect some severe weather outbreaks too.
Quoting 29. ricderr:


Thanks for your continued comprehensive monitoring and reporting of global weather and climate events, Jeff. I was writing this for the previous blog entry comments, but I am learning to double check for new entries by you or Bob Henson before hitting the "Post Comment" button when I put a lot or effort into a comment.

I see that your current post is simply reporting without attribution, because that it the easy part. The difficult task will be to figure out why these extreme heat waves are happening at this time, and determining any supportable connections to AGW/CC. Building a case based on solid scientific evidence and analysis has got to be a real challenge, even for people like you and the other scientists who devote their careers and lives to such work. El Nio is likely a component of the heat-wave-laden NH summer we are experiencing, and I look forward to future blog posts on that relationship and evidence for attribution.

Switching from commenting on Dr. Masters post to a regular poster's enthusiastic comments about El Nio...

With respect to that still developing El Nio, I watch regulars like you, STScott, with amusement as you seem to ride "potential" extreme events from their first appearance on 10-day forecast on a low-skill model. However, this time it is looking more and more likely that your current fascination and excitement may end up with what you began wish-casting for months ago. And that is a super El Nio that failed to finish development last last year because major atmospheric elements failed to cooperate. This year, however, even though the seasonal timing is atypical for an El Nio, it looks like a decent probability that you might be able to crow instead of eating crow.

Regarding the current El Nio which is continuing to strengthen, here's an interesting WWB graph from Philip Klotzbach.(Webber, I see this as a simple and effective communication of a critical element. What's your take on it's value as a leading indicator of a strong El Nio?):


The ENSO discussions here recently have been mostly limited in scope - but there are plenty of good posts and discussions around the internet. Here's a few that I monitor.


NOAA's climgate.gov ENSO Blog

The 2015 El Nio thread at Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Forum

And here is a LINK to a Rob Painting post yesterday at the Skeptical Science website titled "A Southern Hemisphere Booster of Super El Nio" that adds some interesting detail and nuance to what turns a regular El Nio into a "super" El Nio.

11:25 edited for clarity.



your post is long but it is well written....thanx for clearing a point as with a previous poster i agree...doc is excellent at not hyping or blowing things out of proportion


There is no hype from Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Dr. Michael Ventrice, or Eric Blake at some point in time you are going to have to come to the realization that this event looks and compares to some of the strongest enso events we've seen. I think this MJO going literally off the charts now combined with a very strong WWB means there is likely going to be a strong burst in SST's across the enso regions especially nino 3.4 & nino 3.
Quoting 35. StormTrackerScott:



This why its easier to predict what might be coming as the strongest El-Nino's usually come with lots of rain across FL however the graph you posted some of those events were only moderate with 1997, 1987, 1982 being the strongest of that years you posted. A 2.0C to 2.5C ENSO pretty much GTY's a wet winter across FL also expect some severe weather outbreaks too.


If you look at the 1997 EL Nino as a reference point, 36" of rain fell in Tampa between Dec and Mar. That would lead to lots of flooding if it repeated during this El Nino. Especially considering the sun angle is so low that time of the year and the evaporation rate is also low.

But, the CPC continues to predict a dry summer pattern for FL, so maybe this rain will be needed to catch up a bit.
Quoting 8. pablosyn:

Blizzard over south South Argentina:
-2,3°C in Ushuaia and more than 6 inches of snow paralyzes services in Argentina:
Bom dia, Pablo. Greetings to our resident Portuguese-English bilingual commenter from Brazil. I am a retired American expat in Panama who lives in the mountains of western Panama, and am slowly learning Español.

I see you got the infamous "question mark in a black diamond" wich is the Unicode "replacement character" where you had inserted a degree sign. This indicates that you edited your post, and the uncoordinated WU editing module did not recognized the WU ASCII code from the Comment writing module.

When composing a new comment, we can use ASCII codes such as "ALT 167" on the number pad for the degree sign, and "ALT 164" for the eñe. However, when you edit a comment, the system apparently uses a different editing module that uses HTML which does not recognize special character ASCII codes, so it inserts a "�" (Unicode "replacement character") for those characters, and scrambles parts of your comment.

To restore your special characters during editing, you must substitute HTML codes for the black diamonds, such as "& ntilde" for ñ and "& deg" for the º sign (without a space after the ampersand).

Although WU is a pretty good website technically, the programmers' refusal to fix the incompatibility between the writing and editing modules makes them look a bit amateurish.
Quoting 21. Naga5000:



Let's scrap the whole thing and measure temperature by a feeling related scale of 1 - 10, with 1 being "better than anything I have ever experienced" and 10 being "the worst thing you have ever experienced". For example, it is currently 90F, with a heat index of 97F, and a dew point of 72F. I would say it is a 7 outside, not the worst summer heat I have been in, but bad enough that after 15 minutes you need to fully change your clothing because sweat. That inconvenience of needing multiple pairs of underwear in a day pushed the 6 to a 7.

Much easier and accurate. :)
The concept is good but the reality is different. Every time we had a patient in pain and asked them to describe it with a 1-10 scale, 10 being the worst pain one could possibly imagine, guess what the majority of patients reported? I suspect any other 1-10 scale for human experience would end up about the same. After reading about the lightning in DC and seeing the pictures and videos, you'd probably get a 10 out of a lot of people there. I suspect for some fairly large minority of those people, that last storm was also a 10...and the next storm will also be a 10. :-)
Quoting 15. JimSpriggs:

The mercury hit 96.3°F (35.7°C) at Kew Gardens, the nearest recording site, topping the previous record of 96.3°F (34.6°C) on June 26, 1976.

Hi Dr. Masters,

I noticed in your post above the comparison regarding the Fahrenheit temperature is the same.



Thanks, I fixed it to say:

The mercury hit 96.3°F (35.7°C) at Kew Gardens, the nearest recording site, topping the previous record of 94.3°F (34.6°C) on June 26, 1976.

Dr. M.
Quoting 38. Xulonn:

Bom dia, Pablo. Greetings to our resident Portuguese-English bilingual commenter from Brazil. I am a retired American expat in Panama who lives in the mountains of western Panama, and am slowly learning Español.

I see you got the infamous "question mark in a black diamond" wich is the Unicode "replacement character" where you had inserted a degree sign. This indicates that you edited your post, and the uncoordinated WU editing module did not recognized the WU ASCII code from the Comment writing module.

When composing a new comment, we can use ASCII codes such as "ALT 167" on the number pad for the degree sign, and "ALT 164" for the eñe. However, when you edit a comment, the system apparently uses a different editing module that uses HTML which does not recognize special character ASCII codes, so it inserts a "�" (Unicode "replacement character") for those characters, and scrambles parts of your comment.

To restore your special characters during editing, you must substitute HTML codes for the black diamonds, such as "& ntilde" for ñ and "& deg" for the º sign (without a space after the ampersand).

Although WU is a pretty good website technically, the programmers' refusal to fix the incompatibility between the writing and editing modules makes them look a bit amateurish.
It's only been like that for 10 years. You can only get things done so fast here.
I've seen media reports of the new record hottest temperature during the Wimbledon Tournament, but I haven't seen it reported elsewhere that this is the new record hottest temperature any time at Wimbledon.. The June 26, 1976 record was also during a Wimbledon Tournament. So I'm questioning if the Wimbledon record is the new record at Wimbledon, or just the new record at Wimbledon during the tournament.
Quoting 13. VashonIsland:

When will the United States modernize and join the rest of the world and go metric.



As a scientist, I'm ALL for that... in everything except everyday temperature. I still find it hard to think in C.
Quoting 11. georgevandenberghe:



Mostly due to El Nino and positive PDO, but like termites in your house structure, Climate Change is happening and the consequences are likely to be overstated short term, followed by understated and catastrophic long term.

As an example of understated (in your own neighborhood, generally!) I was in Alexandria, VA last October. I and some other tourists were shocked to see the bottom block of King Street flooding, on a sunny day. The locals seemed to not even notice, despite a parked Prius up to its doors in water. I lived in suburban MD about 20 years ago, and I am sure that would have been huge news had it happened then. All I could find on news sites was a vague reference to "nuisance flooding" -just like in Florida, as it turns out. It must have started and worsened so gradually that people who live there don't even notice it or.. care?
Quoting 30. yonzabam:

It's over 20 years since the UK officially converted to Celcius from Fahrenheit, but old timers like me still think in Fahrenheit. The tv and press weather forecasts often still use both.

Funnily enough, when the papers report cold winter temperatures, they give Celcius figures, but hot summer weather is reported in Fahrenheit.
LOL. I still do that mental conversion as well. Somehow, a headline like "Heatwave expected, temperatures may top 40 degrees" still doesn't compute in my Imperial mind. I've been reading a history of German U-Boats in WWII. The Germans had fully converted to metric by then, and all their dimensions and fittings were metric. We captured a couple of them and used them for testing. We had to make some replacement parts for things that were damaged when the boats were captured or failed during testing. It usually took at least two tries to get every dimension correctly converted from metric to Imperial and back again to metric before a part would fit correctly. That was about 70 years ago, so it's not like this is a new problem. You ought to see what happens when a set of specifications from the US is outsourced to India to produce drawings. Talk about a mess.
Quoting 36. StormTrackerScott:



There is no hype from Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Dr. Michael Ventrice, or Eric Blake at some point in time you are going to have to come to the realization tat this event looks and compares to some of the strongest enso events we've seen. I think this MJO going literally off the charts now combined with a very strong WWB means there is likely going to a strong burst in SST's across the enso regions especially nino 3.4 & nino 3.


This is not going to be a moderate event.
The only question now is if it becomes a super.
Quoting 39. sar2401:

The concept is good but the reality is different. Every time we had a patient in pain and asked them to describe it with a 1-10 scale, 10 being the worst pain one could possibly imagine, guess what the majority of patients reported? I suspect any other 1-10 scale for human experience would end up about the same. After reading about the lightning in DC and seeing the pictures and videos, you'd probably get a 10 out of a lot of people there. I suspect for some fairly large minority of those people, that last storm was also a 10...and the next storm will also be a 10. :-)


Yes, Sar. That was part of the joke. :)

There is also an absurdly large percentage of the population that will always say 5. Biases are weird things. I'm much more of a 3's and 7's guy myself.
Quoting 46. cytochromeC:



This is not going to be a moderate event.
The only question now is if it becomes a super.


Moderately super or Supremely moderate is my vote. Are those even classifications?
Quoting 44. annabatic:


As an example of understated (in your own neighborhood, generally!) I was in Alexandria, VA last October. I and some other tourists were shocked to see the bottom block of King Street flooding, on a sunny day. The locals seemed to not even notice, despite a parked Prius up to its doors in water. I lived in suburban MD about 20 years ago, and I am sure that would have been huge news had it happened then. All I could find on news sites was a vague reference to "nuisance flooding" -just like in Florida, as it turns out. It must have started and worsened so gradually that people who live there don't even notice it or.. care?


I lived there nearly 20 years ago. It's always been a *shrug* "whatever" kind of thing there. Any anomalously high tide will flood King Street, particularly if the Potomac is running higher than normal or there's a lot of local runoff. I agree that it's going to get worse, though. They actually have a plan to deal with it there, but it's pretty much about making the buildings flood-resistant rather than stopping the water.
There is no hype from Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Dr. Michael Ventrice, or Eric Blake at some point in time you are going to have to come to the realization tat this event looks and compares to some of the strongest enso events we've seen. I think this MJO going literally off the charts now combined with a very strong WWB means there is likely going to a strong burst in SST's across the enso regions especially nino 3.4 & nino 3.

scott.....if you've noticed....i have yet to post what i think the strength of this event will be and when it will achieve it....what i've focused on....has been the differences of this year as it relates to other years....and also how peculiar this event is as to typical el nino events.....now i've never stated that klotz blows things out of proportion...but yes...last year and this year i've railed against ventrice and blake that they hype things...that they cherry pick quite a bit of their data....does that mean the ultimate outcome will not be as they say....not at all....however...as i showed erics post in the previous blog...the data he used....is flawed....as to state since one section is near 97 values...when three other values in the same data set aren't....i consider that cherry picked...meanwhile...klotz posted a great post.....something that correlates with a recent scientific study...

see scott...if we believed all the hype....or maybe better put...if all the hype was true.....rather than a post like klotz....then

el nino would have been classified as strong...even super...in june

oh wait...that got changed to july....

now it's fall...

a strong southern jet would be firmly in place drenching florida and all things south...

we would not have two named tropical storms as the tropics must be dead....dead i say...(admin please note i've posted no pictures of body bags)

so scott....i'll let you and the others forecast strength...because if i focus on that....well.....even if someone got it right...i'd be stuck on the overwhelming amount of things they got wrong
Quoting 20. LAbonbon:


Countries Not Using the Metric System (in red)


A couple weeks ago I was on a site and this was brought up. A commenter said there's no way 'we' (Americans) would 'give up our freedom' and convert to metric. I had to respond with a 'yeah, and Liberia and Myanmar are right there with us!' Unfortunately my sarcasm was lost on the guy. And I don't know how using Celsius as opposed to Fahrenheit affects anyone's freedom...
As much as I'm in favor of this happening, there are some really huge costs associated with the switch. There will also have to be some overlap period - probably on the order of 20-30 years - where we'd have to operate with a dual system, since there's no way to redo tens of million of specs and drawings in metric overnight. Every single measure of almost everything in the country would need conversion, and then we're on to liquid and dry measure conversion. Assuming there was some weight behind the conversion issue from Washington, it would take a planning and implementation program that would make Y2K look like small, 3 mm potatoes. :-)
Quoting 51. ricderr:

There is no hype from Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Dr. Michael Ventrice, or Eric Blake at some point in time you are going to have to come to the realization tat this event looks and compares to some of the strongest enso events we've seen. I think this MJO going literally off the charts now combined with a very strong WWB means there is likely going to a strong burst in SST's across the enso regions especially nino 3.4 & nino 3.

scott.....if you've noticed....i have yet to post what i think the strength of this event will be and when it will achieve it....what i've focused on....has been the differences of this year as it relates to other years....and also how peculiar this event is as to typical el nino events.....now i've never stated that klotz blows things out of proportion...but yes...last year and this year i've railed against ventrice and blake that they hype things...that they cherry pick quite a bit of their data....does that mean the ultimate outcome will not be as they say....not at all....however...as i showed erics post in the previous blog...the data he used....is flawed....as to state since one section is near 97 values...when three other values in the same data set aren't....i consider that cherry picked...meanwhile...klotz posted a great post.....something that correlates with a recent scientific study...

see scott...if we believed all the hype....or maybe better put...if all the hype was true.....rather than a post like klotz....then

el nino would have been classified as strong...even super...in june

oh wait...that got changed to july....

now it's fall...

a strong southern jet would be firmly in place drenching florida and all things south...

we would not have two named tropical storms as the tropics must be dead....dead i say...(admin please note i've posted no pictures of body bags)

so scott....i'll let you and the others forecast strength...because if i focus on that....well.....even if someone got it right...i'd be stuck on the overwhelming amount of things they got wrong
For the love of Mary, mother of George Washington, please use some actual punctuation and proper case if you're going to make a long post. Short ones are bad enough, but I'm getting a pounding headache trying to figure out where one theoretical sentence ends and the next one begins.
Quoting 42. DCSwithunderscores:

I've seen media reports of the new record hottest temperature during the Wimbledon Tournament, but I haven't seen it reported elsewhere that this is the new record hottest temperature any time at Wimbledon.. The June 26, 1976 record was also during a Wimbledon Tournament. So I'm questioning if the Wimbledon record is the new record at Wimbledon, or just the new record at Wimbledon during the tournament.


I clarified the text to say,

"Already on July 1, in Wimbledon, England--site of the classic Wimbledon tennis tournament--players are enduring the city's hottest day in tournament history."

Thanks,
Dr. M.
Quoting 34. wxgeek723:

What terrifies me the most is the idea that there is about a twenty year lag for the atmosphere to respond to CO2 emittance, meaning today's extreme events may be the results of CO2 we pumped up there in the 90s.

I'm moving to Mars.

Never thought of that possibility. Crossed the line for me. I'm joining the climate revisionists.
As much as I'm in favor of this happening, there are some really huge costs associated with the switch. There will also have to be some overlap period - probably on the order of 20-30 years - where we'd have to operate with a dual system, since there's no way to redo tens of million of specs and drawings in metric overnight. Every single measure of almost everything in the country would need conversion, and then we're on to liquid and dry measure conversion. Assuming there was some weight behind the conversion issue from Washington, it would take a planning and implementation program that would make Y2K look like small, 3 mm potatoes. :-)

we were all set to do just that in the 70's.....politicians got ired...and that changed.....really though......to switch...i would guess..pretty much only us dinosaurs would have a problem.....from 30 to 50 would suffer...but not much.....and anyone in school...would have no trouble at all
Quoting 2. Naga5000:

Uh oh, there's that word again.
LOL. The word, "unprecedented," needs definition when the subject is weather events. Breaking a 54-year-old record by one degree F is not an example of what a thinking person would consider unprecedented. Some other events mentioned in this blog may be unprecedented. I don't know. I do know death toll, human and property casualties are not measures of an unprecedented weather event because dead and injured people and property loss depend on the amount of population in harm's way and also on the population's economic status. A truly unprecedented event may happen without destroying lives or property.

I am not asking a question here, just saying I'm kind of curious about how you define "denier" in your doctoral research. Also related to the research, I hope your advisor has advised you on the ethics of using research subjects who have not consented to be part of your study.

I have nothing further to say to you --- except "Have a nice Independence Day."
For the love of Mary, mother of George Washington, please use some actual punctuation and proper case if you're going to make a long post. Short ones are bad enough, but I'm getting a pounding headache trying to figure out where one theoretical sentence ends and the next one begins.


LMAO....aint gonna happen sar.....but here....take two...and call me in the morning.......

Quoting 24. Midnight092289:


Be careful...In a warming world, scores on your scale may go down (improve) over time.


Depends on your temperature preference. My grandmother wore a sweater all year round. Doffed it maybe once or twice. My grandfather wore his long johns until July. My grandmother used to say "Everyone to their own said the old woman as she kissed the cow."
I couldn't believe the stupidity of this headline from my local newspaper

"Western Europe sweats _ and enjoys _ unusual heat wave"

Who the heck enjoys 107 F??????

Who enjoys seeing their electricity costs double?

Who enjoys seeing years of CO2 reduction slashed overnight?

What happens if this 'sticks' like it has off the west coast of North America?

Trust me, no one is enjoying this nor am I enjoying having my intelligence insulted with Corporate BS just ahead of a major climate summit, it reeks of Pure Propaganda and AP should be ashamed of themselves

Quoting 59. ricderr:

For the love of Mary, mother of George Washington, please use some actual punctuation and proper case if you're going to make a long post. Short ones are bad enough, but I'm getting a pounding headache trying to figure out where one theoretical sentence ends and the next one begins.


LMAO....aint gonna happen sar.....but here....take two...and call me in the morning.......




Wouldn't it be quicker to type a comma than multiple periods? Just a thought.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE... ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GAINESVILLE LINE. HOWEVER...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE TODAY.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER... AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

Quoting 51. ricderr:

There is no hype from Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Dr. Michael Ventrice, or Eric Blake at some point in time you are going to have to come to the realization tat this event looks and compares to some of the strongest enso events we've seen. I think this MJO going literally off the charts now combined with a very strong WWB means there is likely going to a strong burst in SST's across the enso regions especially nino 3.4 & nino 3.

scott.....if you've noticed....i have yet to post what i think the strength of this event will be and when it will achieve it....what i've focused on....has been the differences of this year as it relates to other years....and also how peculiar this event is as to typical el nino events.....now i've never stated that klotz blows things out of proportion...but yes...last year and this year i've railed against ventrice and blake that they hype things...that they cherry pick quite a bit of their data....does that mean the ultimate outcome will not be as they say....not at all....however...as i showed erics post in the previous blog...the data he used....is flawed....as to state since one section is near 97 values...when three other values in the same data set aren't....i consider that cherry picked...meanwhile...klotz posted a great post.....something that correlates with a recent scientific study...

see scott...if we believed all the hype....or maybe better put...if all the hype was true.....rather than a post like klotz....then

el nino would have been classified as strong...even super...in june

oh wait...that got changed to july....

now it's fall...

a strong southern jet would be firmly in place drenching florida and all things south...

we would not have two named tropical storms as the tropics must be dead....dead i say...(admin please note i've posted no pictures of body bags)

so scott....i'll let you and the others forecast strength...because if i focus on that....well.....even if someone got it right...i'd be stuck on the overwhelming amount of things they got wrong


Didn't you have a bet with Scott related to the strength of the anomaly of one of the Nino regions?
Quoting 34. wxgeek723:

What terrifies me the most is the idea that there is about a twenty year lag for the atmosphere to respond to CO2 emittance, meaning today's extreme events may be the results of CO2 we pumped up there in the 90s.

I'm moving to Mars.

"With 40 years between cause and effect, it means that average temperatures of the last decade are a result of what we were thoughtlessly putting into the air in the 1960’s. It also means that the true impact of our emissions over the last decade will not be felt until the 2040’s. This thought should send a chill down your spine!"

Quoting 49. Naga5000:



Moderately super or Supremely moderate is my vote. Are those even classifications?
For many of us, Ida Delta Charley would work...
Quoting 58. Barefootontherocks:

LOL. The word, "unprecedented," needs definition when the subject is weather events. Breaking a 54-year-old record by one degree F is not an example of what a thinking person would consider unprecedented. Some other events mentioned in this blog may be unprecedented. I don't know. I do know death toll, human and property casualties are not measures of an unprecedented weather event because dead and injured people and property loss depend on the amount of population in harm's way and also on the population's economic status. A truly unprecedented event may happen without destroying lives or property.

I am not asking a question here, just saying I'm kind of curious about how you define "denier" in your doctoral research. Also related to the research, I hope your advisor has advised you on the ethics of using research subjects who have not consented to be part of your study.

I have nothing further to say to you --- except "Have a nice Independence Day.


Teehee.

Sounds like you need a refresher on IRB protocols, I'm up to date on mine, including the part regarding if consent is needed when using computer-mediated communication (read: blog comments) from websites that do allow the general public to post there (hint: it is not needed). No worries, I wouldn't even think of using this blog, now that would be unethical due to my direct involvement.

P.S. The term denier has been defined by previous researchers, no need for me to reinvent the wheel, you know, it's not like I'm some pioneer on ye olde Oregon trail. But to directly answer your question, I define it using the self identified words and ideas of those who claim to be science "deniers" (yes people actually say that about themselves, quite frequently on those other blogs). The general characteristics are those whose positions on the anthropogenic cause of global warming and resulting climate change are both unconvinced by scientific research and who state their position as unable to be changed or immovable, either explicitly or implicitly.
Conversion to metric would not be difficult if that's all we used. The trick is to NOT convert - in other words, don't convert metric to English/Imperial. Just use metric until it becomes second nature. Total immersion - just like learning a language - is the fastest way to get there. Metric is superior - but people abhor change.

As with most any habit or custom, people won't change until the pain of staying the same is exponentially greater than the pain of changing. Just acknowledging the change needs to occur (that our experience or circumstances or world would improve) is not enough to inspire and impel changed behavior and attitudes. Usually it has to hurt.

Now, pass me that 1/2" ratchet wrench so I can put my 12 mm socket on it.
"Deep derp detected Capt'n"........




Quoting 59. ricderr:

For the love of Mary, mother of George Washington, please use some actual punctuation and proper case if you're going to make a long post. Short ones are bad enough, but I'm getting a pounding headache trying to figure out where one theoretical sentence ends and the next one begins.


LMAO....aint gonna happen sar.....but here....take two...and call me in the morning.......


So you're saying you don't care if you communicate in any effective manner, especially with all the people we have here that are not native English speakers. as long as you can do your schickt and be all cutesy? Just want to clarify how you think about basic English.
Quoting 62. tampabaymatt:



Wouldn't it be quicker to type a comma than multiple periods? Just a thought.


Hmmm, it's a valid point. I could of course use the "quote" feature. I could capitalize as conditions require. I could use more concise sentence structures and most importantly I could utilize proper punctuation in lieu of multiple periods. In fact, what was my major? Yes, you guessed it, English.

buttttttt...........again i say....it aint gonna happen here
What needs to be addressed is the sun's direct rays that is burning us all. Many people say the same, that's all there talking about. The time for the sun to burn is cut down more than half from 5 years back. I'm concerned as many others are of the UV rays effecting us all. Is the ozone damaged more than we know.
As with most any habit or custom, people won't change until the pain of changing is exponentially greater than the pain of remaining the same.

Indeed, Climate Change, which is the shared Global dilemma, is jus that.








74. vis0

Quoting 20. LAbonbon:


Countries Not Using the Metric System (in red)


A couple weeks ago I was on a site and this was brought up. A commenter said there's no way 'we' (Americans) would 'give up our freedom' and convert to metric. I had to respond with a 'yeah, and Liberia and Myanmar are right there with us!' Unfortunately my sarcasm was lost on the guy. And I don't know how using Celsius as opposed to Fahrenheit affects anyone's freedom...
1st of all/-17th of all /255.9278th of all
Its how our "American culture" (un-politically correct dictionary translation: media feed lazy brain-itus) has maintained that right to choose, not to move (from the couch) mentality...i'm a victim...can u get me another soda pop from the fridge, for the cause?

2nd-ly F / -17.2222nd-ly  C /  255.9278th-ly Kelvin
 As i stand on my 2 feet/304.8000mm and think of how Lincoln said
"(Mets 3 - Astros1,
Phillies8 - Cubs8,
Dodgers 1 - Senators forfeit, don't even show up (to busy dodging the questions),
Knicks 126 - Bulls 126.5,
Mankind 1 - Nature getting ready to bat (bases loaded after mankind made 3 errors...invention of oil chugging engine when solar power was also on the minds back then, not scrubbing stacks for years though it was known scrubbers helped lower pollutants & not taking responsibility for OUR actions NOW..."manning up" as some reporters say),
Bayamon 6 - Mayaguez 9"
AND a decade ago
referring to the inception of the Declaration of Independence would he look around and see my 16 ounce "softdrink" (and think there is nothing soft 'bout too much sweets damaging American's health) turning into a 14 ounce size to keep the same price. THEN, people begin to question "Hey the package is smaller". THEN to notice businesses will quietly change to mL so 12 ounces will ONLY read 354, and people will say WOW! 354mL for only 2 bucks i'll take 8 and swipe their CC to but them, then try to figure out when they have to balance the books where did my checking (debt) account go?

Then they might learn the metric system, or not.

Me, vis0 i'm happy to say i only weigh 17 stone, still though i wonder why every time i sit my shadow lets out the blood curdling screams of agony.
The 1930 Atlantic Hurricane Season was the 2nd least active on record, but featured the 5th deadliest on record.

Hurricane 3 - Hurricane San Zenon, the Dominican Hurricane
Fatalities: 2,000 - 8,000



Also, I found it interesting that the 1886 Atlantic Hurricane Season featured 3 Florida Hurricane landfalls 4 if you count the Indianola Hurricane which skirted the FL. Keys. very similar to the 2004 Hurricane season. Then 1887 became the 3rd most active on record and 2005 became the most active on record. Whether this just pure coincidence or there is some kind of teleconnection. I'm not too sure about that, Webberweather53 is the master when it comes to these analogs and making a connection.

Point I'm trying to make is regardless of the predictions for a hurricane season and how strong this El Nino is predicted to get, always be prepared and hope for the best, it only takes one to make it a memorable season.

Quoting 68. VelexiT:

Conversion to metric would not be difficult if that's all we used. The trick is to NOT convert - in other words, don't convert metric to English/Imperial. Just use metric until it becomes second nature. Total immersion - just like learning a language - is the fastest way to get there. Metric is superior - but people abhor change.

As with most any habit or custom, people won't change until the pain of changing is exponentially greater than the pain of remaining the same. Just acknowledging the change needs to occur (that our experience or circumstances or world would improve) is not enough to inspire and impel changed behavior and attitudes. Usually it has to hurt.

Now, pass me that 1/2" ratchet wrench so I can put my 12 mm socket on it.
LOL. However, it's not people that are the problem. We'd gripe but adapt. It's the huge industrial establishment that also has to convert, not just in the future, but with all the past measurements. It can be done, but it's a Really Big Deal, and would need some real shoving and commitment behind it from both government and industry. It's been slowly happening in many industries for the past 50 years but, to do a complete changeover would take a lot of effort - and money - and no one with any juice seems to be behind a project of this size now.
Quoting 71. ricderr:



Hmmm, it's a valid point. I could of course use the "quote" feature. I could capitalize as conditions require. I could use more concise sentence structures and most importantly I could utilize proper punctuation in lieu of multiple periods. In fact, what was my major? Yes, you guessed it, English.

buttttttt...........again i say....it aint gonna happen here


Well then. Have....fun.....wasting......your...time....typing ....tons....of......periods.
Imagine if this blog was available in 1992, when it took till late August to get the A storm.

Which took lives in 2 States.




Folks, we would have needed a Blogger Suicide Prevention Help-line.

Quoting 68. VelexiT:

Conversion to metric would not be difficult if that's all we used. The trick is to NOT convert - in other words, don't convert metric to English/Imperial. Just use metric until it becomes second nature. Total immersion - just like learning a language - is the fastest way to get there. Metric is superior - but people abhor change.

As with most any habit or custom, people won't change until the pain of changing is exponentially greater than the pain of remaining the same. Just acknowledging the change needs to occur (that our experience or circumstances or world would improve) is not enough to inspire and impel changed behavior and attitudes. Usually it has to hurt.

Now, pass me that 1/2" ratchet wrench so I can put my 12 mm socket on it.


My 3/8"/10mm multi-tool doesn't work as well as my 3/8" crescent. Some things just aren't the same.
I think you meant to say the pain of change is exponentially less...

Quoting 73. Patrap:

As with most any habit or custom, people won't change until the pain of changing is exponentially greater than the pain of remaining the same.

Indeed, Climate Change, which is the shared Global dilemma, is jus that.









Quoting 73. Patrap:

As with most any habit or custom, people won't change until the pain of changing is exponentially greater than the pain of remaining the same.

Indeed, Climate Change, which is the shared Global dilemma, is jus that.











Agreed, Patrap. Absolutely.
Somebodys probably already got their oar in with this one but aparently the temps in the UK are as high as "98/F"
I picked up this link about melting roads and twisted rail lines?


Link
Quoting 80. flsky:

I think you meant to say the pain of change is exponentially less...




Ack - right. "until the pain of STAYING THE SAME is exponentially greater than the pain of changing." That's what I intended to write.
Change is always slow to occur due to politics in general. All this talk makes me want to see EARTH 2100 again.
Good Afternoon all :o)
I hope everyone is enjoying the "Hot"
weather we are having.... It is July you know.

Taco :o)
Quoting 67. Naga5000:



Teehee.

Sounds like you need a refresher on IRB protocols, I'm up to date on mine, including the part regarding if consent is needed when using computer-mediated communication (read: blog comments) from websites that do allow the general public to post there (hint: it is not needed). No worries, I wouldn't even think of using this blog, now that would be unethical due to my direct involvement.

P.S. The term denier has been defined by previous researchers, no need for me to reinvent the wheel, you know, it's not like I'm some pioneer on ye olde Oregon trail. But to directly answer your question, I define it using the self identified words and ideas of those who claim to be science "deniers" (yes people actually say that about themselves, quite frequently on those other blogs). The general characteristics are those whose positions on the anthropogenic cause of global warming and resulting climate change are both unconvinced by scientific research and who state their position as unable to be changed or immovable, either explicitly or implicitly.
How did we go from yet another run at "unprecedented" to what "denier" means to you torturing your research subjects without their consent? Good heavens, you're not thinking of using anything written by an anonymous poster on the internet for your diabolical research without first asking her consent, are you? Wait, there's a flaw there somewhere...
Good afternoon, fellow bloggers!

Happy Hump Day!

Does anyone know where I can access the NHC's HurDat database?

It is accessible to the general public, correct?

Gracias; muy agradecido!
Here's the 'big picture' for June's precip. The second image is pretty striking, between the 'got too much', and the 'didn't get nearly enough' areas.




(Source)
So you're saying you don't care if you communicate in any effective manner, especially with all the people we have here that are not native English speakers. as long as you can do your schickt and be all cutesy? Just want to clarify how you think about basic English.

is this where i go all manic that the proper spelling is "shtick" and not "shickt"...i'll pass....but nope....it's not shtick...nor is it cutesy...it's what i do....and it's what i've done since i've started posting here...

now seriously...don't you think we've wasted enough time on this....you're good for complaining about it or not using the quote button every other month or so....you can always be like tampamatt...and just think it's stupid and move on...or there's always the ignore feature....or....you can complain...i'm fine with them all....enjoy the weather...unlike my typing...it changes...seriously....i wish you peace
Quoting 75. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The 1930 Atlantic Hurricane Season was the 2nd least active on record, but featured the 5th deadliest on record.

Hurricane 3 - Hurricane San Zenon, the Dominican Hurricane
Fatalities: 2,000 - 8,000



Also, I found it interesting that the 1886 Atlantic Hurricane Season featured 3 Florida Hurricane landfalls 4 if you count the Indianola Hurricane which skirted the FL. Keys. very similar to the 2004 Hurricane season. Then 1887 became the 3rd most active on record and 2005 became the most active on record. Whether this just pure coincidence or there is some kind of teleconnection. I'm not too sure about that, Webberweather53 is the master when it comes to these analogs and making a connection.

Point I'm trying to make is regardless of the predictions for a hurricane season and how strong this El Nino is predicted to get, always be prepared and hope for the best, it only takes one to make it a memorable season.


I was asked to speak at the end of the US/Cuban Hurricane Conference here in New Orleans November 2009.

In attendance was Gen Honore, Hurricane Forecaster Avila as well as Dr. Ivor Van Heerden from LSU then.

My closing remarks were this in a nutshell.

Learn to communicate on ALL levels of social media..as it was blooming then. I reminded everyone that we all can play a role in communicating threats by and large to anyone anywhere.

Even a common lone blogger can drive change.

I have, and will continue to do the same.

One can make a difference.



Quoting 87. sar2401:

How did we go from yet another run at "unprecedented" to what "denier" means to you torturing your research subjects without their consent? Good heavens, you're not thinking of using anything written by an anonymous poster on the internet for your diabolical research without first asking her consent, are you? Wait, there's a flaw there somewhere...


I have no clue, I can't pretend to understand half of what is happening anymore.

Quoting 91. Gearsts:




Como siempre digo, boricueno; no se trata de cuantos se formaran, sino de cuantos de ellos impactaran tierra!

Esta temporada la recuerdaremos, acere, y pronto veras porque lo dije.
One thing that climate change has going for it is that there will probably be fewer slow weather days which encourage comments on English usage and appropriate stenographic technique. They are of interest in communicating out side this community, but sharing a common interest in weather, we are all pretty good at deciphering each other's comments. Besides what would we all do without the fun of trying to figure out each other's comments.
Quoting 42. DCSwithunderscores:

I've seen media reports of the new record hottest temperature during the Wimbledon Tournament, but I haven't seen it reported elsewhere that this is the new record hottest temperature any time at Wimbledon.. The June 26, 1976 record was also during a Wimbledon Tournament. So I'm questioning if the Wimbledon record is the new record at Wimbledon, or just the new record at Wimbledon during the tournament.


What scares me more is I remember the Wimbledon records being set in 1976. I'm OLD!
How long was this exposure?


Quoting 1. wxgeek723:

Thanks Dr. Masters

DC endures worst storms since 2012

Silver Spring, MD last night

I'm out til later; deuces!
Quoting 96. georgevandenberghe:



What scares me more is I remember the Wimbledon records being set in 1976. I'm OLD!
On an entirely related note: Deborah Harry of Blondie turns 70 today.

Yes. 70...
Quoting 86. taco2me61:

Good Afternoon all :o)
I hope everyone is enjoying the "Hot"
weather we are having.... It is July you know.
Yes, it is. It just so happens to be hotter in places than anyone has ever seen before.
I guess it wasn't a permanent ban...
A truly great Man who stood tall in the midst of Horror, and did what was needed.




Nicholas Winton, the 'British Schindler,' dies aged 106
LONDON


REUTERS

A man who became known as the "British Schindler" for saving hundreds of Czech children from Nazi persecution in the run-up to World War Two, has died at the age of 106.

Nicholas Winton died on Wednesday with his daughter Barbara and two grandchildren at his side, according to a statement from the Rotary Club of Maidenhead in southern England, of which he was a former president.

Winton managed to bring 669 mostly Jewish children on eight trains to Britain through Germany in 1939 but the ninth train with 250 children never left Prague because the war broke out. None of the 250 children on board was ever seen again.

Winton had worked as a stockbroker before heading to Prague in 1938 to help with welfare work for Czech refugees and was 29 when he masterminded the rescue of the children.

His achievements were often compared with those of Oskar Schindler, the ethnic German industrialist who saved the lives of 1,200 Jews during the Holocaust and who was the subject of the 1993 film "Schindler's List."

Winton's wartime exploits, however, remained a secret for years until his wife Greta found a detailed scrapbook in their attic in 1988.

He had not even told her of his role.

"You can't come up to somebody and say: 'by the way do you want to know what I did in '39?' People don't talk about what they did in the war," Winton told Reuters Television in 2009.

Over the years, Winton's work had been recognized with various awards and with a small planet discovered by Czech astronomers named in his honor.

He had also been commended by the U.S. House of Representatives which said it "urges men and women everywhere to recognize in Winton’s remarkable humanitarian effort the difference that one devoted, principled individual can make in changing and improving the lives of others."

The Rotary Club quoted from a 1939 letter in which Winton had written: "There is a difference between passive goodness and active goodness, which is, in my opinion, the giving of one's time and energy in the alleviation of pain and suffering.

"It entails going out, finding and helping those in suffering and danger and not merely in leading an exemplary life in a purely passive way of doing no wrong."

Quoting 95. JustDucky251:

One thing that climate change has going for it is that there will probably be fewer slow weather days which encourage comments on English usage and appropriate stenographic technique. They are of interest in communicating out side this community, but sharing a common interest in weather, we are all pretty good at deciphering each other's comments. Besides what would we all do without the fun of trying to figure out each other's comments.

...'sharing a common interest in weather...'

Some days it's kind of hard to tell...
Quoting 101. Bucsboltsfan:

I guess it wasn't a permanent ban...

who got the big Band this time????
Just wondering

Taco :0)
Quoting 104. taco2me61:


who got the big Band this time????
Just wondering

Taco :0)

Yesterday they were handed out like Halloween candy
Quoting 101. Bucsboltsfan:

I guess it wasn't a permanent ban...
Apparently not...
Quoting 105. LAbonbon:


Yesterday they were handed out like Halloween candy

Oh wow I was on here but did not notice it at all.
Thank you

Taco :o)
Quoting 105. LAbonbon:


Yesterday they were handed out like Halloween candy
I got nailed for 12 hours worth. I did something bad, I guess.
LOL..yup, one can tell who dat was easily.
Ack, coff, dusty, ah-choo'...

Nuttin out dere at tall



Quoting 90. ricderr:

So you're saying you don't care if you communicate in any effective manner, especially with all the people we have here that are not native English speakers. as long as you can do your schickt and be all cutesy? Just want to clarify how you think about basic English.

is this where i go all manic that the proper spelling is "shtick" and not "shickt"...i'll pass....but nope....it's not shtick...nor is it cutesy...it's what i do....and it's what i've done since i've started posting here...

now seriously...don't you think we've wasted enough time on this....you're good for complaining about it or not using the quote button every other month or so....you can always be like tampamatt...and just think it's stupid and move on...or there's always the ignore feature....or....you can complain...i'm fine with them all....enjoy the weather...unlike my typing...it changes...seriously....i wish you peace
"it's what i do". And, with that, I know what I'm going to do. Over and out.
From Dan Satterfield's blog on AGU:

This Looks like A Hoax, but It’s Not. It’s a Crown Flash



This must be the season for them because I saw one myself last weekend (here in Maryland) for a few seconds. I was unsure of what it was, but assumed that cirrus clouds were reflecting the sunlight in a strange way, much like a sundog. The one I saw did not move as much as this one though, and it is rather amazing. Language warning on the video, but I’d have been freaked as well!.

The Cloud Appreciation Society has more on what is happening here, but in general the ice crystals in the thin cirrus clouds are suddenly aligning with the electric field generated by a rising cumulus tower below. The ice crystals reflect the light but the changing field is turning the ice crystals. Phil Plait at Bad Astronomy found a letter to NATURE about it in 1971. I’ll be honest with you, most meteorologists have not likely even heard of this before!

Link to Video*

*Please note, I did not embed the video, as it has cursing. So take care while opening it. It is one of the coolest things I've seen in a while.

Satterfield's blog post has an embedded link to a piece on crown flashes by the Cloud Appreciation Society, which in turn has additional links.
Quoting 95. JustDucky251:

One thing that climate change has going for it is that there will probably be fewer slow weather days which encourage comments on English usage and appropriate stenographic technique. They are of interest in communicating out side this community, but sharing a common interest in weather, we are all pretty good at deciphering each other's comments. Besides what would we all do without the fun of trying to figure out each other's comments.
People with English as a second or third language may not agree on the "fun" part. It just seems reasonable that those of us who have English as a first language have some small obligation to use it to the best our ability.
"Dodgers 1 - Senators forfeit, don't even show up (to busy dodging the questions]"... That's some funny [redacted], vis.
Quoting 108. sar2401:

I got nailed for 12 hours worth. I did something bad, I guess.
I see a spin in the visible satellite image of the Gulf blob SW of Brownsville. Probably just MSC at this point, but it seems nothing can sit that long in the GOM and not eventually spin up into a TS. I bet the NHC tags it with their next forecast. Looks like it'd head towards E LA or NW FL.
Quoting 98. flsky:

How long was this exposure?





Five minutes.
Quoting 119. Fraidycat:

I see a spin in the visible satellite image of the Gulf blob SW of Brownsville. Probably just MSC at this point, but it seems nothing can sit that long in the GOM and not eventually spin up into a TS. I bet the NHC tags it with their next forecast. Looks like it'd head towards E LA or NW FL.
yes just something to keep an eye on and see what it looks like tomorrow if its even still there.
Raining again

Quoting 108. sar2401:

I got nailed for 12 hours worth. I did something bad, I guess.


And the Trolls are still here....
Quoting 124. LAbonbon:

Raining again




Yup, got a solid 1.10 inches in a 45 min T-storm here.
Quoting 124. LAbonbon:

Raining again


Had about 3 inches worth the past 48 hours...Which isnt bad, but more is coming, that could be problematic for some folks.
Quoting 91. Gearsts:


That one was designated a tropical depression while still on land over Dakhar, Senegal. Those are the ones you have to watch out for. That was a sprawling high pressure ridge to take a track like that.

Quoting 113. LAbonbon:

From Dan Satterfield's blog on AGU:

This Looks like A Hoax, but It’s Not. It’s a Crown Flash



This must be the season for them because I saw one myself last weekend (here in Maryland) for a few seconds. I was unsure of what it was, but assumed that cirrus clouds were reflecting the sunlight in a strange way, much like a sundog. The one I saw did not move as much as this one though, and it is rather amazing. Language warning on the video, but I’d have been freaked as well!.

The Cloud Appreciation Society has more on what is happening here, but in general the ice crystals in the thin cirrus clouds are suddenly aligning with the electric field generated by a rising cumulus tower below. The ice crystals reflect the light but the changing field is turning the ice crystals. Phil Plait at Bad Astronomy found a letter to NATURE about it in 1971. I’ll be honest with you, most meteorologists have not likely even heard of this before!

Link to Video*

*Please note, I did not embed the video, as it has cursing. So take care while opening it. It is one of the coolest things I've seen in a while.

Satterfield's blog post has an embedded link to a piece on crown flashes by the Cloud Appreciation Society, which in turn has additional links.
That's a really nice one.

When these started turning up on YouTube a few years back, I was relieved, and excited, for I'd seen them before a few times and never quite understood the mechanics behind them. I figured it had to be lightning-related, of course, but I always assumed it was a sonic phenomenon having to do with high-altitude thunder moving through the ice crystals. But then wiser types suggested it was an electromagentic phenomenon wherein a pulsing electric field moving through a growing anvil temporarily rearrange the ice crystals, creating sometimes otherworldy optics.

I didn't have a camera with me the first time I saw it myself, but I imagine my reaction was similar to that of the gobsmacked videographer... :)
I had a Thunderstorm this morning before 4:00 and it was loud and bright, but wimpy on the rain total. It was initially reported and .04-.05 by the Indian Hills PWS and this morning the CoCoRaHS site around the corner from me measured .12 So, nothing for June(T on 6/9) and .12 for July, thanks to the Monsoon.
Quoting 130. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That one was designated a tropical depression while still on land over Dakhar, Senegal. Those are the ones you have to watch out for. That was a sprawling high pressure ridge to take a track like that.




Indeed, Caleb! It must've been. This is actually pretty similar to the current set-up across the basin. Sadly, we don't have a storm out there to take advantage of such an opportune steering pattern.
Hey Ped... Glad you are getting a little bit of rain. Emphasis on the little part.
Quoting 49. Naga5000:



Moderately super or Supremely moderate is my vote. Are those even classifications?


You can turn most adjectives into either lies, or pale shadows of what they are supposed to be with
the appropriately placed adverb.

Try "almost exactly" or "approximately equal".
Quoting 136. georgevandenberghe:



You can turn most adjectives into either lies, or pale shadows of what they are supposed to be with
the appropriately placed adverb.

Try "almost exactly" or "approximately equal".



How it is said is as important as what is said...
Quoting 113. LAbonbon:

From Dan Satterfield's blog on AGU:

This Looks like A Hoax, but It’s Not. It’s a Crown Flash



This must be the season for them because I saw one myself last weekend (here in Maryland) for a few seconds. I was unsure of what it was, but assumed that cirrus clouds were reflecting the sunlight in a strange way, much like a sundog. The one I saw did not move as much as this one though, and it is rather amazing. Language warning on the video, but I’d have been freaked as well!.

The Cloud Appreciation Society has more on what is happening here, but in general the ice crystals in the thin cirrus clouds are suddenly aligning with the electric field generated by a rising cumulus tower below. The ice crystals reflect the light but the changing field is turning the ice crystals. Phil Plait at Bad Astronomy found a letter to NATURE about it in 1971. I’ll be honest with you, most meteorologists have not likely even heard of this before!

Link to Video*

*Please note, I did not embed the video, as it has cursing. So take care while opening it. It is one of the coolest things I've seen in a while.

Satterfield's blog post has an embedded link to a piece on crown flashes by the Cloud Appreciation Society, which in turn has additional links.
Now I'm a little confused. Satterfield says this happened in Oregon and the YouTube video says it happened in Indiana. The two sources also seem confused about electromagnetic fields and electric fields, neither one being exactly correct. The cause may be an electrostatic field, a subset of an electric field, except it's, well...static, and not electromagnetic at all. I'm not even sure it's a crown flash, or at least not according to this paper from all the back in 1975 -

"Crown flash is a sudden brightening effect which is sometimes observed near the top of a cumulonimbus cloud concurrent with a lightning discharge"

I didn't see any concurrent lightning flashes in the video, and the luminescence seems to last too long to be caused by just lightning. I've seen something similar over the ocean a few times (although I didn't know it had a name) and it was always at sunset over the back of a fast developing cumulonimbus. It looked like the tower edges, which are mostly ice crystals, would catch the rays of the setting sun for a few seconds and then disappear as the optical pattern got misaligned. Once, it repeated several times as the rear towers got aligned with the sun again before it set. I've never seen it over land, and always thought it was some marine phenomena. I don't remember lightning ever happening when I saw it, but maybe lightning below the horizon has something to do with an electrostatic alignment that keeps the crystals in one orientation for long enough for this kind of thing to happen. Whatever it is, it was a pretty cool thing to watch in person.
Quoting 99. PoliticalCorrectness:

I'm out til later; deuces!



are you JFV?



am watching you



the way i can tell that if he is JFV is the way he posted and quotes evere one i got a knack at sniffing JFV out


may be i sould be no has the JFV hunter
Quoting 132. PedleyCA:

I had a Thunderstorm this morning before 4:00 and it was loud and bright, but wimpy on the rain total. It was initially reported and .04-.05 by the Indian Hills PWS and this morning the CoCoRaHS site around the corner from me measured .12 So, nothing for June(T on 6/9) and .12 for July, thanks to the Monsoon.
Did you get up and watch it? I remember the few night thunderstorms we had and I always got up and sat out on the deck to watch. It was so long between thunderstorms in California I had to get my fix while I could. I even made the kids get up one time when we had what would now be called insane lighting. They really never liked hearing about thunderstorms after that. :-)
You can see how thick the SAL is on the natural color vis. CaribBoy has some nice webcams out of St. Barthelemy that would probably show the skies a milky white.

Quoting 133. Patrap:


What's Killing the Babies of Vernal, Utah?

A fracking boomtown, a spike in stillborn deaths and a gusher of unanswered questions

By Paul Solotaroff June 22, 2015






That's a really sad story, it's a shame what fracking is doing to this country in some places. Hard to believe nobody can put up a fight to stop it in areas where it's causing harm.
144. vis0
Hope washi115 is okay see a couple of other WDCers are on.  If wash115s ok ...wash115 ya can come out from under the bed
Quoting 130. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That one was designated a tropical depression while still on land over Dakhar, Senegal. Those are the ones you have to watch out for. That was a sprawling high pressure ridge to take a track like that.


I think you mean a later reanalysis designated it as a tropical depression. There wasn't any agency around in 1928 that even knew about such things in Africa.
Quoting 142. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You can see how thick the SAL is on the natural color vis. CaribBoy has some nice webcams out of St. Barthelemy that would probably show the skies a milky white.






El Nino, SAL, drought...

So boring.
Quoting 141. sar2401:

Did you get up and watch it? I remember the few night thunderstorms we had and I always got up and sat out on the deck to watch. It was so long between thunderstorms in California I had to get my fix while I could. I even made the kids get up one time when we had what would now be called insane lighting. They really never liked hearing about thunderstorms after that. :-)


Growing up south of Boston, our house was in an area adored by lightning. We were hit three times for sure and maybe a couple of other times. Several trees in the neighborhood were damaged by direct hits. The most exciting hit was when mom, my brother, and i had gathered in the kitchen to watch the lightning and the power line was hit where it comes into the house. The dishwasher started up for a second and a fork jumped off the top of it sizzling blue and just missed me. After the storm, we found (after blowing a couple of fuses) the the copper windings in the motor had been fused into a solid block of copper. Dishwasher repairman kept it as a souvenir!
Sinkholes are a common phenomena in the south, but they, apparently, are also common on comets. Rain water is probably not the culprit.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33354 872
Quoting 146. CaribBoy:





El Nino, SAL, drought...

So boring.



dont you this love love love it? heh heh heh
Noisy here today.

Quoting 143. 69Viking:



That's a really sad story, it's a shame what fracking is doing to this country in some places. Hard to believe nobody can put up a fight to stop it in areas where it's causing harm.


Denton, Texas did ban fracking within its city limits last year. The result? The Texas legislator just banned bans on fracking unless the city paid the taxes the state would have received from the fracking. Wouldn't it be a bit hypothetical to say how much the state would have received from fracking where fracking would banned? No matter. The industry got its ban on further banning fracking, in Texas.
Quoting 151. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Denton, Texas did ban fracking within its city limits last year. The result? The Texas legislator just banned bans on fracking unless the city paid the taxes the state would have received from the fracking. Wouldn't it be a bit hypothetical to say how much the state would have received from fracking where fracking would banned? No matter. The industry got its ban on further banning fracking, in Texas.


Big Oil in TX, all about oil and gas and right to have guns....lmao
It sure would be nice if LA & MS would send some of that rain to the Florida Panhandle, two days in a row LA has hogged the rain!
Looks like trolls are waiting till August and September
156. vis0

Quoting 77. tampabaymatt:



Well then. Have....fun.....wasting......your...time....typing ....tons....of......periods.
AND I QUOTE ricderr::

""

like i (vis0) amnot guilty of ...that ...DOE, i am not an inglesg majer. (like you need me to misspell some words to figure that out)
Quoting 156. vis0:


AND I QUOTE ricderr::

""

like i (vis0) amnot guilty of ...that ...DOE, i am not an inglesg majer. (like you need me to misspell some words to figure that out)



What?
Quoting 154. 69Viking:

It sure would be nice if LA & MS would send some of that rain to the Florida Panhandle, two days in a row LA has hogged the rain!


I would love to send you some of Mobile's rain. The danged buildings are turning green from mildew and mold. You'd have a hard time finding brown grass.
Quoting 143. 69Viking:



That's a really sad story, it's a shame what fracking is doing to this country in some places. Hard to believe nobody can put up a fight to stop it in areas where it's causing harm.
I don't know what's happening in Vernal and that story doesn't help much in trying to explain it. I went through this with my late wife and her leukemia. We lived down the road from a contact lense factory, and drank from a well that we later found out was contaminated with benzene from this plant. It was an Australian company that started an American subsidiary and got a lot of tax breaks and incentives to open their plant. After the news came out about the contaminated wells, the company declared bankruptcy, laid everyone off, and left. The site is now on the Superfund list.

I worked with the state epidemiologist on her study. Again, I don't know about Vernal, but she was quite fearless about getting to the bottom of it, even if she stepped on some toes. My wife's leukemia had a 90% chance that it was environmental. What got the epidemiologist revved up was that she had an identical twin who didn't have leukemia, doesn't have leukemia to this day, and lived 2,000 miles away. She went through every case of leukemia in the previous 20 years that could have had any chance of consuming the well water as well as people working at the plant, and those living downwind. The bottom line was the numbers of people with leukemia weren't high enough to be statistically significant. As much as I think, and the doctor thinks, that plant was the most likely cause of her leukemia, we couldn't prove it. As painful as it was, you have to draw the line somewhere between what people think and what we can prove. It sounds like this might also be the case in Vernal.
Ought to be some interesting atmospheric info coming up soon.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33348 459
Quoting 159. tampabaymatt:


An inch of rain for me over the next 10 days? That's not what I wanted to see. Maybe it will go to an inch and a half on the next run.
Quoting 162. sar2401:

An inch of rain for me over the next 10 days? That's not what I wanted to see. Maybe it will go to an inch and a half on the next run.


Not if the CPC has anything to say about it
Quoting 149. Tazmanian:




dont you this love love love it? heh heh heh


No I hate that
Quoting 161. JustDucky251:

Ought to be some interesting atmospheric info coming up soon.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33348 459

WU wrecked your link as usual. If you don't copy and paste it into the Link box (the icon with the chain thing), the fabulous software here will wreck any link you just copy and paste.
OK. try this for atmospheric info link.

Link
Quoting 144. vis0:

Hope washi115 is okay see a couple of other WDCers are on.  If wash115s ok ...wash115 ya can come out from under the bed

Lol I'm alright :).Been assessing damage and making estimates on how much clean up is going to cost.My good friend and fellow neighbor helped cut the tree branch that fell in the backyard and the back part of the basement got flooded with 2 inches of water causing the hot water tank to fail.
Quoting 168. washingtonian115:

Lol I'm alright :).Been assessing damage and making estimates on how much clean up is going to cost.My good friend and fellow neighbor helped cut the tree branch that fell in the backyard and the back part of the basement got flooded with 2 inches of water causing the hot water tank to fail.


Had that happen to me (HW Tank flooded). Made sure to put it on a 4" concrete pad when i put it back. Cold Showers are not fun.
Quoting 165. CaribBoy:



No I hate that



When you say no. That means you love it
Quoting 168. washingtonian115:

Lol I'm alright :).Been assessing damage and making estimates on how much clean up is going to cost.My good friend and fellow neighbor helped cut the tree branch that fell in the backyard and the back part of the basement got flooded with 2 inches of water causing the hot water tank to fail.


If there's one thing I don't understand having been a lifelong Floridian is flooded basements. People in other parts of the country talk about it like it's nothing, but here in FL if you have even the slightest crack in your exterior stucco, you'd think your life was in danger. My sister lives in Denver and their basement is flooding repeatedly with all of the bad storms they have been getting, and you'd think it was no big deal. How do you get all of the water out? Do you have a sump pump?
Quoting 169. JustDucky251:



Had that happen to me (HW Tank flooded). Made sure to put it on a 4" concrete pad when i put it back. Cold Showers are not fun.
Oh yes I have definitely learned a new lesson after this storm.I'm going to have them install it higher off the ground so we won't have to go after a repeat of this again in the future.For now we have to boil the water ourselves.

171. tampabaymatt
We call a professional to come and pump out the basement when it get's flooded like this.This time I plan on getting rid of the backdoor and sealing the wall up completely that leads to stairs in the backyard so the water can stop coming down the stairs and into the house when the drain gets clogged.
Quoting 164. tampabaymatt:



Not if the CPC has anything to say about it

Ah, it's only a 50% probability of below average precipitation. That means there's a 50% chance of above normal, or at least normal, precipitation too. I like to think of myself as a half full kind of guy. :-) There are a slug of thunderstorms, some severe, over northern Alabama now but these have zero chance of making it this far south. Friday looks like the best chance for me, and that's nothing to write home about.
Quoting 170. Tazmanian:




When you say no. That means you love it


lol, no taz :)
Quoting 151. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Denton, Texas did ban fracking within its city limits last year. The result? The Texas legislator just banned bans on fracking unless the city paid the taxes the state would have received from the fracking. Wouldn't it be a bit hypothetical to say how much the state would have received from fracking where fracking would banned? No matter. The industry got its ban on further banning fracking, in Texas.

The almighty dollar trumps everything these days. Public health, a clean environment - both play second fiddle to the almighty dollar. Officials at every level have become corrupted by it.

I wasn't aware Bill 'Rubber Stamp' Stringer had left the BLM and is now a county commissioner. This is not the first time he has been in the news when it comes to environmental issues related to O&G in Utah.
Quoting 10. Xulonn:

Thanks for your continued comprehensive monitoring and reporting of global weather and climate events, Jeff. I was writing this for the previous blog entry comments, but I am learning to double check for new entries by you or Bob Henson before hitting the "Post Comment" button when I put a lot or effort into a comment.

I see that your current post is simply reporting without attribution, because that it the easy part. The difficult task will be to figure out why these extreme heat waves are happening at this time, and determining any supportable connections to AGW/CC. Building a case based on solid scientific evidence and analysis has got to be a real challenge, even for people like you and the other scientists who devote their careers and lives to such work. El Niño is likely a component of the heat-wave-laden NH summer we are experiencing, and I look forward to future blog posts on that relationship and evidence for attribution.

Switching from commenting on Dr. Masters post to a regular poster's enthusiastic comments about El Niño...

With respect to that still developing El Niño, I watch regulars like you, STScott, with amusement as you seem to ride "potential" extreme events from their first appearance on 10-day forecast on a low-skill model. However, this time it is looking more and more likely that your current fascination and excitement may end up with what you began wish-casting for months ago. And that is a super El Niño that failed to finish development last last year because major atmospheric elements failed to cooperate. This year, however, even though the seasonal timing is atypical for an El Niño, it looks like a decent probability that you might be able to crow instead of eating crow.

Regarding the current El Niño which is continuing to strengthen, here's an interesting WWB graph from Philip Klotzbach.(Webber, I see this as a simple and effective communication of a critical element. What's your take on it's value as a leading indicator of a strong El Niño?):


The ENSO discussions here recently have been mostly limited in scope - but there are plenty of good posts and discussions around the internet. Here's a few that I monitor.


NOAA's climgate.gov ENSO Blog


The 2015 El Niño thread at Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Forum

And here is a LINK to a Rob Painting post yesterday at the Skeptical Science website titled "A Southern Hemisphere Booster of Super El Niño" that adds some interesting detail and nuance to what turns a regular El Niño into a "super" El Niño.

11:25 edited for clarity.


The satellite record that's used to derive reliable observations of the tropospheric column is likely not long enough to lead to extremely meaningful relationships between the given threshold used by Phil Klotzbach to measure the ferocity of the slackening of the easterlies & ENSO intensity. The available sample size of events he used only constitutes about 25% of the total number of El Ninos in the observational record (~40). Not mention that strong & "Super" NINOs are practically indistinguishable in terms of SSTs during the summer. We don't usually begin to see appreciable divergence in this field until the Autumnal Equinox when a final, secondary uptick in intensity is often observed & weaker events typically approach ENSO thresholds.


Thus it's difficult to ascertain the significance of the relationship between the trade winds & subsequent ENSO up to this point in the year.

Despite what Phil's graphic shows, 1997-98 is still destroying us in terms of Equatorial Pacific U850, at least since the beginning of March.

1997


This Year


Even if you move the starting point forward to May to focus on more recent behavior, 1997-98 is still way out front.

1997


This Year



I specifically chose March as the starting point of this comparison because the separation in the spectral bandwidths between intraseasonal & seasonal phenomena become blurred & the seasonal cycle in MJO amplitude, mean latitude (equatorially focused), zonal SST gradients, & relative absence of a predominant hemispheric monsoon circulation allows higher frequency modes, like the MJO, to selectively amplify ENSO & excite non-dispersve, baroclinic oceanic Kelvin Waves during the northern hemisphere spring... January & February are typically still largely at the mercy of the antecedent ENSO event. Additionally, even though any warming of the 30-yr moving base periods between now & when a base period is permanently assigned for 2015 in 2031 will result in the 2014-15 El Nino being erased from the historical record under the current ONI thresholds, directly comparing this event (which has been developing for over a yr) against 1997-98 is still an apples-oranges & any conclusions drawn from the various ENSO indices should be taken with a grain of salt until late summer (Aug-Sep) at the earliest... I actually find it hilarious that Scott thinks we could "blow by" 1997-98 considering there isn't a single event in the historical record that has done so (even 1877-78 which may have an advantage depending on what dataset & variable is used), nor has any El Nino in the entire 165 year record attained +3.0C in the seasonal SSTs, let alone in any month for that matter. Although it doesn't go without saying I came across one dataset, MOHSSTv5 ((UK) Met Office Historical Sea Surface Temperature), actually surpassed the +3.0C threshold (even w/o a moving base period) in December 1877, Link but this dataset is outdated & the UKMet Office advises against its usage apart from inter-comparisons against other more recent sets.

Link

MOHSST5 has been since superseded by MOHSSTv6, HADSST2, HADSST 3.0.0, HADSST 3.1.0, & HADSST 3.1.1., and its record ends in 1991.

@GTStormChaserCaleb

I have identified 6 years using HADISST1 composites & a 30-40 year moving base period from GCOS that have similar SST configurations & ENSO to this year, of course 1930 made the list...

FMA HADISST Global SST/ENSO analogs moved forward to JJA vs 1871-2010 base period



Before I began to embark on my ENSO project, I realized how punctuated the RAH past event archive currently is & after coming across a few historical storms that weren't analyzed (yet), I became dissatisfied. Thus, starting last winter I began to dig into the NCSU climate database, NWS archives, & the NOWData to reconstruct snow accumulation maps from winter storms that struck NC during the 20th century & I have identified/contoured 40 storms thus far (w/ many more to come) before 1980. I bring this up wrt the 1930 analog, during the accompanying winter, in December 15-18 1930, a massive snowstorm struck central & western NC...


Which BTW, has some amazing similarities to January 23-24 1940 & several other large El Nino winter storms that feature an unusually large gradient in snowfall totals across the NC piedmont..

Still 28C (82.4F) at 22:17 in London. :( Thankfully it's going to cool down a good 10C or so tomorrow.
thanks for the update doc

have a good day

">
Quoting 172. washingtonian115:

Oh yes I have definitely learned a new lesson after this storm.I'm going to have them install it higher off the ground so we won't have to go after a repeat of this again in the future.For now we have to boil the water ourselves.

171. tampabaymatt
We call a professional to come and pump out the basement when it get's flooded like this.This time I plan on getting rid of the backdoor and sealing the wall up completely that leads to stairs in the backyard so the water can stop coming down the stairs and into the house when the drain gets clogged.


As TBMatt suggests, a sump pump would be a good idea. it saved me a number of times.
Quoting 155. prcane4you:

Looks like trolls are waiting till August and September
Not all of them.
Quoting 160. sar2401:

I don't know what's happening in Vernal and that story doesn't help much in trying to explain it. I went through this with my late wife and her leukemia. We lived down the road from a contact lense factory, and drank from a well that we later found out was contaminated with benzene from this plant. It was an Australian company that started an American subsidiary and got a lot of tax breaks and incentives to open their plant. After the news came out about the contaminated wells, the company declared bankruptcy, laid everyone off, and left. The site is now on the Superfund list.

I worked with the state epidemiologist on her study. Again, I don't know about Vernal, but she was quite fearless about getting to the bottom of it, even if she stepped on some toes. My wife's leukemia had a 90% chance that it was environmental. What got the epidemiologist revved up was that she had an identical twin who didn't have leukemia, doesn't have leukemia to this day, and lived 2,000 miles away. She went through every case of leukemia in the previous 20 years that could have had any chance of consuming the well water as well as people working at the plant, and those living downwind. The bottom line was the numbers of people with leukemia weren't high enough to be statistically significant. As much as I think, and the doctor thinks, that plant was the most likely cause of her leukemia, we couldn't prove it. As painful as it was, you have to draw the line somewhere between what people think and what we can prove. It sounds like this might also be the case in Vernal.


Very sorry to hear about your wife. You would think they could do tests of air samples and water samples and pin it on these companies, sucks that it's so difficult to hold them accountable.
Quoting 174. CaribBoy:



lol, no taz :)



i this like haveing fun with you
Quoting 158. JustDucky251:



I would love to send you some of Mobile's rain. The danged buildings are turning green from mildew and mold. You'd have a hard time finding brown grass.
And, across the state and 190 air miles away, I closed out June an inch below normal.
Quoting 171. tampabaymatt:



If there's one thing I don't understand having been a lifelong Floridian is flooded basements. People in other parts of the country talk about it like it's nothing, but here in FL if you have even the slightest crack in your exterior stucco, you'd think your life was in danger. My sister lives in Denver and their basement is flooding repeatedly with all of the bad storms they have been getting, and you'd think it was no big deal. How do you get all of the water out? Do you have a sump pump?


Generally here in the mid atlantic we do have sump pumps or basement drains in the lowest part of the basement.. these latter are no longer allowed by code for good reasons (they cause sewer backups downstream in low houses like uuhh my old one) A sump pump will keep the water table below the basement floor. It will not handle an inundation when surface water gets to the level of the basement stairs and then cascades down in enormous volume (happened to me twice making my basement doors look like an aquarium and no they weren't watertight). My appliances are all elevated in both old and present house.

Sorry about your basement issues washingonian115. Been there.. it's nasty!

BTW if you have a sump pump you need a backup in case power fails.

There is a severe thunderstorm with major hail in lee county. Radar indicates hail up to 2" which is just insane. That is the largest hail signature i've ever seen here.
Quoting 183. sar2401:

And, across the state and 190 air miles away, I closed out June an inch below normal.


My June totals in DC METRO weren't absolute records but for consistency this qualifies as my wettest. No decent drying for almost four weeks, several inches a week. It's like being in FL except our clays don't leach nearly as badly as the TLH sands did.
Quoting 181. 69Viking:



Very sorry to hear about your wife. You would think they could do tests of air samples and water samples and pin it on these companies, sucks that it's so difficult to hold them accountable.
Thanks. It's no problem to prove a company polluted the air or the water. That does get pinned on them, assuming your business plan isn't to rip off the American suckers, pollute all you want, then go belly up and move back to Australia. They made sure the American subsidiary had no legal relationship the the parent company, so the taxpayers are stuck with the clean up bill. The hard part is proving that company's pollution caused my wife's leukemia, and the numbers of leukemias in my area was statistically above what you'd expect to see in any area that size. That didn't prove to be the case with my wife, even though there's no doubt in my mind it was the benzenes in the water that caused it. I was actually in the Lion's Club with the president of the company. It's a good thing he left when he did or I would have decked the SOB (at least) when I found out what he allowed to happen. My wife had a rare type of leukemia, so the numbers of just her type of leukemia would depend on how good the doctor was diagnosing it and how long the exposure had been. It also depended on how many people moved away and the epidemiologist couldn't find. We lived there and drank that water for 20 years. She was a health nut and drank like 10 glasses of water a day. I drank like 10 Cokes a day. She's dead and I just rotted my teeth out. Sometimes life just isn't fair.
condensing smoke too the west of upper grt lakes

Quoting 179. JustDucky251:



As TBMatt suggests, a sump pump would be a good idea. it saved me a number of times.


In the El Nino of 1997-98 we talked about stocking trout in my sump pump drain stream.
Quoting 186. georgevandenberghe:



My June totals in DC METRO weren't absolute records but for consistency this qualifies as my wettest. No decent drying for almost four weeks, several inches a week. It's like being in FL except our clays don't leach nearly as badly as the TLH sands did.

we had 218.7 mm for a total here for month of june lets see what july brings I guess
191. 882MB
What an active W-PAC, and the S-PAC also for this time of Year, incredible. They need to upload that "LOW" for 96W to "HIGH". 96W has been spinning in this large monsoon trough also with 94W being absorbed into Tropical Storm Chan-hom at the moment, and like I was saying 96W was strong enough to develop nicely and gain strength for a T.C.F.A. Forgot to mention about Raquel plummeting the Solomon Islands. Very beautiful islands, with amazing rainforest's, and Raquel is expected to crawl through the area. Truly incredible, what's going on over there.











Quoting 185. typhoonty:

There is a severe thunderstorm with major hail in lee county. Radar indicates hail up to 2" which is just insane. That is the largest hail signature i've ever seen here.
Must not be Lee County AL since there are no storms there. Lee County is a pretty common name so it helps to mention the state before you get to the insane part.
Quoting 186. georgevandenberghe:



My June totals in DC METRO weren't absolute records but for consistency this qualifies as my wettest. No decent drying for almost four weeks, several inches a week. It's like being in FL except our clays don't leach nearly as badly as the TLH sands did.

I'm lucky to have a combination of clay and sand which hold water pretty well. Even with almost no rain for the past two weeks, the soil moisture is still in pretty good shape. That's going to rapidly change with the heat starting up again (it got to 95 today) and no rain.
Quoting 157. tampabaymatt:



What?
It's a play on Ric's "I'm an English major that only uses dots for punctuation" thing.
I think this is unprecedented.


96W was strong enough to develop nicely and gain strength for a T.C.F.A.


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
3:00 AM JST July 2 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 13.2N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 15.3N 128.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
12z GFS, a sub-900 mbar tropical cyclone nearing South Korea and southern Japan.

Holy cow.

Goodness, these storms trying to make it here in Brevard County from Osceola County are slowing down and losing some punch. Please make it over here!
Quoting 195. Grothar:

I think this is unprecedented.





2015-06-29 20:00 Local ⇄ UTC

Data | SST Anomaly


you want to see unprecedented


Quoting 197. CybrTeddy:

12z GFS, a sub-900 mbar tropical cyclone nearing South Korea and southern Japan.

Holy cow.




Happy Birthday Grothar! As the old saying goes, "Don't buy any green bananas."

img src="">
202. beell
Quoting 195. Grothar:

I think this is unprecedented.





I think the use of the word "unprecedented" in a blog title, twice in one week by Dr. M, is unprecedented in the historical record of the blog.
Quoting 154. 69Viking:

It sure would be nice if LA & MS would send some of that rain to the Florida Panhandle, two days in a row LA has hogged the rain!

Did you not get the rain from the severe thunderstorm yesterday?
launch early friday from russia to re-supply the space station.
Quoting 201. GeoffreyWPB:

Happy Birthday Grothar! As the old saying goes, "Don't buy any green bananas."

gro gets a special candle cake for his birthday I hope someone got him a leaf blower for a present so he can blow out the candles


Quoting 205. islander101010:

launch early friday from russia to re-supply the space station.
lets hope that one don't blow up
To think some on here are disregarding these ENSO forecast from so many models.

Expect significant rises in SST's across Nino 3.4 over the next few weeks.

Eric Blake@EricBlake12 2h2 hours ago

The CFS shows the strongest westerly wind burst on record for July- crushes 1997. #ElNino #climate @TropicalTidbits




Are those candles or some sort of coral plant. =P
Quoting 197. CybrTeddy:

12z GFS, a sub-900 mbar tropical cyclone nearing South Korea and southern Japan.

Holy cow.




Current run is even scarier... 873 mb with the Ogasawara island chain (~2,500 people live there) in the northeast quadrant right by the eye wall.



Then on to the Okinawa Island chain as a sub-900 mb storm still



Then looks like it'll hit Eastern china as a very powerful storm. This could be quite an interesting and devastating storm to track. Thankfully none of the GFS' past runs of making storms into sub-900mb monsters has come true, however the storms it has strengthened that much have certainly been powerful.

Quoting 197. CybrTeddy:

12z GFS, a sub-900 mbar tropical cyclone nearing South Korea and southern Japan.

Holy cow.


We'll see if it actually makes it to South Korea. Any typhoon that's still a typhoon making landfall in South Korea isn't common, but one in July would be exceedingly uncommon.
Quoting 203. PoliticalCorrectness:



Do you believe it'll come to pass, Kyle? I, for one, sure don't. The GFS and its ridiculous exaggerations, XD


When the Euro & GFS both show a sub-900mb storm, whilst it may not come to pass, it should very well be noted that a very powerful storm may be on the way. Tropical Cyclone Pam was one they strengthened significantly earlier this year and it became a 896 mb monster of a storm.
Chan-hom will be a very interesting storm to track for at least the next 7-8 days. Good chance it will eventually become a super typhoon. Patience may be key for the next day or two though, it's feeling some shear right now and likely will for awhile longer, center is on the east side of the convection. Many models likely overdoing short term intensity. Its time will come though.



Way too early to be thinking about a final landfall. For now, interests in Guam should keep an eye on it.
Quoting 141. sar2401:

Did you get up and watch it? I remember the few night thunderstorms we had and I always got up and sat out on the deck to watch. It was so long between thunderstorms in California I had to get my fix while I could. I even made the kids get up one time when we had what would now be called insane lighting. They really never liked hearing about thunderstorms after that. :-)

Well, I have skylights in the house and I could see the flashes through those and the windows and it was very close, had about 5-6 good flashes and thunder(2 secs) to go with it. I was dark so not much to see and we all know not to go out and play in an electrical storm.....
Reasons to stick with the Fahrenheit scale.
Eric Blake
The CFS shows the strongest westerly wind burst on record for July- crushes 1997.
Not to say both can't be wrong, but the ECMWF also has an incredibly powerful cyclone approaching the southern Japanese islands.

Meanwhile, Chan-hom's Southern Hemisphere twin, Raquel, is experiencing that awkward moment when your center completely separates from your convection.



Hi, late night greetings from tropical Germany! We've spent the evening at (temporary) Mainz Beach and I took the photo above with the rising moon - clearly what you'd expect of a typical German landscape, hmm :-) ?
Temps hit 34C (93F) today - but this was only the beginning of the heatwave which should become much worse in the next days in Germany. And models are very uncertain how long it will last (some have an open end --- please not!!) and whether we'll see some severe weather on the weekend or not ("loaded gun" conditions).


Took this video as well (a little later than the photo). A lot of folks relaxed on our temporary beach in town with some music, beer or longdrinks.
TORNADO WARNING
MOC095-020000-
/O.NEW.KEAX.TO.W.0018.150701T2332Z-150702T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
632 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...


* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 631 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RAYTOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLUE SPRINGS...LAKE TAPAWINGO AND UNITY VILLAGE.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 10 AND 21.
I-470 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 8 AND 16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 9428 3898 9422 3890 9433 3896 9449
3902 9450 3907 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 285DEG 12KT 3902 9444

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 600 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOON ACROSS EXTREME
ERN KS/WRN MO. THE INITIAL STORMS SHOULD BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...STORMS SHOULD GROW INTO A LARGER
SEWD/SWD-MOVING CLUSTER WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF KANSAS
CITY MISSOURI TO 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 382...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33025.


...THOMPSON
There seems to be a slight low drifting NW-to-SE toward the W GOM or BOC region.The 4-to-7 day outlook shows a High forming in the NE GOM, so this might mean more rain for Texas if it builds a little and stears moisture that way.
Quoting 168. washingtonian115:

Lol I'm alright :).Been assessing damage and making estimates on how much clean up is going to cost.My good friend and fellow neighbor helped cut the tree branch that fell in the backyard and the back part of the basement got flooded with 2 inches of water causing the hot water tank to fail.


Wife and I were talking about your post and concluded that we either slept right through it or we got lucky. Even dog who is terrified of thunder and lightning did not go bonkers as she usually might. We woke up this morning and could see that it had rained quite a bit but nothing like what you experienced.
We live off Bonifant ROAD in Silver Spring.
Dr.Masters mentioned the Jet Stream in Europe has an extreme configuration and the picture should underline the point:



We had a subtropical Jet Stream in May and June over North Africa without these southerly dips, so it is a pattern change. How long this will remain is to be seen. Here a picture of the Jet Stream from 12.06.2015:

re: post 220 barbamz
Those palms (Trachyocarpus fortuni), are they brought indoors during the winter?
Things will really get interesting and dangerous in western Europe the next days - not only because of the heat but as well because of very severe weather, according to "European storm forecast experiment" Estofex:



Storm Forecast, Valid: Thu 02 Jul 2015 06:00 to Fri 03 Jul 2015 06:00 UTC, Issued: Wed 01 Jul 2015 22:56, Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 2 was issued for NW France and N / central Benelux countries mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts and to a lesser extend tornadoes and excessive precipitation. ...
SYNOPSIS
An amplified ridge is located across western Europe, flanked by a deep N Atlantic trough and a trough/cut off across E Europe. A strong southerly jet extends from Iberia to the North Sea ahead of a lifting trough that will travel from the Bay of Biscay to the North Sea during the period.
At lower levels, a plume of warm air extends from the west Mediterranean to the North Sea. To the west, a sharp frontal zone will slowly progress east over France and the North Sea. Eastern Europe is affected by a northerly to easterly flow advecting dry and cooler air. Best low-level moisture will be co-located with the axis of warm air where it nicely overlaps with steep lapse rates. Focus of convective development will be a frontal convergence that slowly moves east. ...

Whole forecast with discussion see Estofex.org.

There is also an updated extended forecast available:

A level 2 was issued for NW France and W Belgium
This extended forecast is issued to highlight an elevated potential of severe weather over NW France and W Belgium on Friday evening. There is a risk of strong tornadoes and very large hail. ...


Jetstream roaring from south to north in western Europe. Saved current IR loop. Source.


Strong lightning over France and UK (saved image; source).

Have to head to bed, and meanwhile the fans should have draged some cooler air into the flat, hopefully. Good night everyone!
ACSeattle-
has Bertha started digging again? or is she still in a comatose state?
Looks like this one is gonna miss me too, I'm unattractive for severe weather. :(
Quoting 207. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lets hope that one don't blow up


If you want something reliably put into space, let the Russians do it.
Quoting 228. ACSeattle:

re: post 220 barbamz
Those palms (Trachyocarpus fortuni), are they brought indoors during the winter?


Yes, those river beaches in the mid of German and other northern European cities are only temporary during summer. But nearby is a park with some permant palmtrees outside (see below), and a weather guy on the other side of the river got a quite tropical garden as well. Mainz (as some other cities along Rhine) is a (increasing) warm spot.


Photo is from spring.
Quoting 226. AreadersinceWilma:



Wife and I were talking about your post and concluded that we either slept right through it or we got lucky. Even dog who is terrified of thunder and lightning did not go bonkers as she usually might. We woke up this morning and could see that it had rained quite a bit but nothing like what you experienced.
We live off Bonifant ROAD in Silver Spring.
CWG noted that it really did depend on where you were.Some people said that they slept through it and didn't realize what was going on until they got to other parts of the city.I talked to my friend who lives in Bethesda and said they didn't hear much from last night vs some people who lived in Hyattsville and Seat Pleasant who witnessed lost power and downed trees.
Link
Quoting 230. aquak9:

ACSeattle-
has Bertha started digging again? or is she still in a comatose state?

Last I heard, they were trying to bring her to the surface for repairs, but that was some time ago

Quoting 131. Neapolitan:

That's a really nice one.

But then wiser types suggested it was an electromagentic phenomenon wherein a pulsing electric field moving through a growing anvil
First, it was the men who stare at goats. Now it's the men  who stare at anvils. :)
Happy Birthday Grothar.
Happy Birthday Grothar. Mine was yesterday.
Quoting 236. rayduray2013:

First, it was the men who stare at goats. Now it's the men who stare at anvils. :)

Du musst Amboss oder Hammer sein.
Despite having shade and water available, today we lost three buff geese, one embden goose and one pullet to the heat. That would be tree and under-porch shade, not "box-like house thing in the sun" shade.

One of the embdens went into some kind of heat seizure not long after we buried the buffs. We ran her to the small shady fish pond in the courtyard and tried to cool her down, and she didn't die immediately - tried to come back, it looked like - but it was just too much for her. We thought the Embdens would be ok - they are white, active and she wasn't old or a youngster - but sometimes you can't tell what's going to happen.

All those birds are now in the orchard with the ducks and Peeps The Chicken Who Thinks She's A Duck. This is her first time meeting other chickens, and Chicklet the cockerel has her quite fascinated. It's a bit of sweetness while dealing with a huge chunk of frustration today.

I swear if I run into anyone who finds some cool spot on the planet and uses it as an excuse to blow off the reality of this weather, I... don't know. I'd like to kick them, hard.
It looks like we are finally going to get some rain here north of Orlando! I am truly desperate for a good rain at this point. I really hope some red on the radar makes it over us. That's when we (obviously) get the really good soaking rains in the summertime. Anything less usually leaves us with fairly low rainfall amounts, unless the rain is stationary and at least moderate for quite a while.
nonblanche- I am so so sorry for the loss of your animals. I know they are "just birds" but if we care for them and love them, then it doesn't matter what they are.

peace-
Tremendous amount of lightning to my SSW. Storms are moving this way it appears so maybe we'll get some rain to cool things off.

Quoting 228. ACSeattle:

re: post 220 barbamz
Those palms (Trachyocarpus fortuni), are they brought indoors during the winter?


Trachys can survive down to at least 5F, so I bet they can do just fine in urban areas in some parts of Germany. Eventually they will be severely damaged or killed, but many can last and be healthy for many years in marginal areas. There had been scores of long term survivors in the mid-Atlantic region before January 2014. I read many, if not most, were killed.

Heck, I have ten smaller coconut palms (one about 8 feet tall) in the ground here. They are still small because I selected sprouted coconuts from "Tall" variety coconuts that are a bit more resistant to cold (and better looking) than the Malayan dwarfs so common in South FL after lethal yellowing hit in the 1970s. I hope to see them get large and last for a number of years before a record freeze takes them out. The way most winters have been lately, I think I will get my wish. The urban heat island is one key reason.
Quoting 243. StormTrackerScott:

Tremendous amount of lightning to my SSW. Storms are moving this way it appears so maybe we'll get some rain to cool things off.




I really hope they don't peter out on us before getting here. The SE part of the complex already appears to be weakening and these types of storms can weaken especially suddenly this time of night.
Quoting 182. Tazmanian:




i this like haveing fun with you


Really, why?
..Dancing day's are here again, the Summer evening's grow'...



Nice soaker off Lake P.



Sounds like climate change is a hoax to me Doc! Heck. I bet it even snows next winter!
yep, it's falling apart. Of course.
Quoting 240. nonblanche:

Despite having shade and water available, today we lost three buff geese, one embden goose and one pullet to the heat. That would be tree and under-porch shade, not "box-like house thing in the sun" shade.

One of the embdens went into some kind of heat seizure not long after we buried the buffs. We ran her to the small shady fish pond in the courtyard and tried to cool her down, and she didn't die immediately - tried to come back, it looked like - but it was just too much for her. We thought the Embdens would be ok - they are white, active and she wasn't old or a youngster - but sometimes you can't tell what's going to happen.

All those birds are now in the orchard with the ducks and Peeps The Chicken Who Thinks She's A Duck. This is her first time meeting other chickens, and Chicklet the cockerel has her quite fascinated. It's a bit of sweetness while dealing with a huge chunk of frustration today.

I swear if I run into anyone who finds some cool spot on the planet and uses it as an excuse to blow off the reality of this weather, I... don't know. I'd like to kick them, hard.
That's too bad about the geese. I used to have chickens when I was doing the homesteading thing and I always lost a few of them to heat stroke when it got near 100. They had shade and water also, so I guess, just like humans, some of them don't tolerate heat. Have You at least seen any rain? I was talking to my brother earlier and he said they had torrential rain in Reno.

Quoting 136. georgevandenberghe:



You can turn most adjectives into either lies, or pale shadows of what they are supposed to be with
the appropriately placed adverb.

Try "almost exactly" or "approximately equal".

Then there's the real killer, "almost equivalent". Sometimes you're the lightning, sometimes you're the lightning bug. :)
June rains were well BELOW normal, 2015 is also well below normal.... about 33% of average, this is very low. But I'm sure 2016 will bring record or near-record rainfall ;-)
Quoting 253. rayduray2013:

Then there's the real killer, "almost equivalent". Sometimes you're the lightning, sometimes you're the lightning bug. :)

Sometimes you're the lawnmower; sometimes you're the lawn.
Could you please put temps if Fahrenheit?
Quoting 252. sar2401:

That's too bad about the geese. I used to have chickens when I was doing the homesteading thing and I always lost a few of them to heat stroke when it got near 100. They had shade and water also, so I guess, just like humans, some of them don't tolerate heat. Have You at least seen any rain? I was talking to my brother earlier and he said they had torrential rain in Reno.


Last night the storm system did its usual split around the Fallon area. I'm hoping tonight's is more meaty, and doesn't split.
Quoting 71. ricderr:



Hmmm, it's a valid point. I could of course use the "quote" feature. I could capitalize as conditions require. I could use more concise sentence structures and most importantly I could utilize proper punctuation in lieu of multiple periods. In fact, what was my major? Yes, you guessed it, English.

buttttttt...........again i say....it aint gonna happen here
By all means, keep the ellipsis schtick going. Homemade punctuation is a useful indicator--of certain things.
259. beell
Sometimes you're the pigeon, sometimes you're the statue
From the Guardian:

More evidence that global warming is intensifying extreme weather
A new study finds that global warming is causing weather whiplash.

John Abraham
Wednesday 1 July 2015 09:45 EDT

Just this week, a new article appeared in the journal Nature that provides more evidence of a connection between extreme weather and global warming. This falls on the heels of last week’s article which made a similar connection. So, what is new with the second paper? A lot.

Extreme weather can be exacerbated by global warming either because the currents of atmosphere and oceans change, or it can be exacerbated through thermodynamics (the interaction of heat, energy, moisture, etc.). Last week’s study dealt with just the thermodynamics. This week’s study presents a method to deal with both.
Full Article

Hear Ye! Hear Ye! The full paper can be accessed via the link in the Guardian's article, and is available through Nature.com's Content Sharing Initiative. Last week, a similar article (referenced in the first paragraph) appears to have been available for one day only. So...if you're interested in reading the full paper, don't wait.
A few small drops of rain, not cutting it. I should have expected the storms to disintegrate just before reaching us. I should know better by now! Bangs head against wall. Oh well, there's always another evasive, withering storm complex to watch tomorrow. Have a great night everybody:)
Quoting 260. LAbonbon:

From the Guardian:

More evidence that global warming is intensifying extreme weather
A new study finds that global warming is causing weather whiplash.

John Abraham
Wednesday 1 July 2015 09:45 EDT

Just this week, a new article appeared in the journal Nature that provides more evidence of a connection between extreme weather and global warming. This falls on the heels of last week’s article which made a similar connection. So, what is new with the second paper? A lot.

Extreme weather can be exacerbated by global warming either because the currents of atmosphere and oceans change, or it can be exacerbated through thermodynamics (the interaction of heat, energy, moisture, etc.). Last week’s study dealt with just the thermodynamics. This week’s study presents a method to deal with both.
Full Article

Hear Ye! Hear Ye! The full paper can be accessed via the link in the Guardian's article, and is available through Nature.com's Content Sharing Initiative. Last week, a similar article (referenced in the first paragraph) appears to have been available for one day only. So...if you're interested in reading the full paper, don't wait.


It would take me at least a week to read it. Guess I keep that tab open and hope it stays like that.
Hey, Barb. Too bad you left early. I was in discussion and couldn't remember this word.

das Beispiellosewettermuster


Quoting 262. nonblanche:



It would take me at least a week to read it. Guess I keep that tab open and hope it stays like that.

The first paper they referenced that came out last week was very readable. This one...not so much. I got more out of the intro/conclusions than I did the methods (okay, I skimmed the methods section). Bit over my head, I admit. But I'm sure there are some on here that would have no difficulty absorbing even that section.

But the good news is, the intro/conclusions section portion is only a page or two :-)
Hey Grothar, you did remember the fire extinguisher this year didn't you?
What happened in California that got a mention on the SPC?

Good evening, bloggers/Buenas noches, blogueros!
Quoting 265. RTLSNK:

Hey Grothar, you did remember the fire extinguisher this year didn't you?



That's just like the hat my family made me wear, the first time I ever got banned on WU. Only it was white.


Thanks for the birthday wishes everybody. You made a little old man very happy.
Quoting 194. sar2401:

It's a play on Ric's "I'm an English major that only uses dots for punctuation" thing.


The word "like" is often used as punctuation or conjunction. But like, not by me!
And a certain word originally meaning donkey and later adapted as a disrespectful slur, has now, especially
in the south, become an adverb. It aint!! stop it!
How's everyone doing tonight?

Como se encuentra todo el mundo esta noche?
Quoting 268. Grothar:



That's just like the hat my family made me wear, the first time I ever got banned on WU. Only it was white.


Thanks for the birthday wishes everybody. You made a little old man very happy.
Well good birthday to you kind old sir :)
Quoting 271. Tornado6042008X:

Well good birthday to you kind old sir :)


Que bola, acere?
Quoting 244. HurrMichaelOrl:


Trachys can survive down to at least 5F, so I bet they can do just fine in urban areas in some parts of Germany. Eventually they will be severely damaged or killed, but many can last and be healthy for many years in marginal areas. There had been scores of long term survivors in the mid-Atlantic region before January 2014. I read many, if not most, were killed.

Heck, I have ten smaller coconut palms (one about 8 feet tall) in the ground here. They are still small because I selected sprouted coconuts from "Tall" variety coconuts that are a bit more resistant to cold (and better looking) than the Malayan dwarfs so common in South FL after lethal yellowing hit in the 1970s. I hope to see them get large and last for a number of years before a record freeze takes them out. The way most winters have been lately, I think I will get my wish. The urban heat island is one key reason.


Bermudagrass makes excellent deep south lawns. It used to be only hardy to about 10F but started appearing in DC metro lawns and on golf courses in the late 60s. I remember my childhood Annandale VA housef had a patch of it and it was really hard to mow and also greened up four weeks later in the spring than the other grass. The golf course I worked at in suburban VA in 1977 had solid bermuda fairways and they were beautiful.. so they said. The winter of 1976-77 killed 99.9 percent of it and they had to keep their winter grass (perennial ryegrass, fine bladed) going all that summer. But bermuda can grow six feet in a season and by 1978, the few surviving sprigs had reestablished. People do forget that there is a winterkill hazard with this grass in DC but, that said there hasn't been a wholesale wipeout since then.

More recently I was weeding my SIL garden in Athens Ohio (Zone 6 -10F to 0F winter low) I think about 2006 or so. Bermudagrass should be killed every year there but it has established a winter hardy patch for 100 feet around their garden, basically their whole front lawn. I was amazed it could survive there! It is a miserable pest in the garden. Of course I have it in my MD Zone 7 garden.. everywhere!
Did you eat a lot of cake today?

Comistes mucho biscocho hoy?
Happy B-day Gro and may you have many more.

What a great day again. No rain, sunshine, never hit 70F... Last night was in the 50s so I could get the house cooled off... Still have another week of basically around the clock light outside.

Bought some fresh caught Salmon to grill up too.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



Mobile radiosonde deployments during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): Rapid and adaptive sampling of upscale convective feedbacks

*** Characteristics of Thunderstorms that produce Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes

* Australia Welcomes UNESCO Decision on Great Barrier Reef

2015 SIPN Sea Ice Outlook: June report

*** Greenhouse gas-guzzlers spurn extra carbon dioxide

* Rosetta spacecraft sees sinkholes on comet: Unprecedented imagery peers beneath the surface of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko



*** Observing the birth of a planet



!!! People with diverse genetic backgrounds are taller and faster-thinking, study suggests

* Human-like 'eye' in single-celled plankton: Mitochondria, plastids evolved together



*** Largest freshwater lake on Earth was reduced to desert dunes in just a few hundred years

*** Major Midwest flood risk underestimated by as much as five feet, study finds

!!! New study reveals mechanism regulating methane emissions in freshwater wetlands

* Hydroelectric dams drastically reduce tropical forest biodiversity

Biodegradable silicon transistor based on material derived from wood

*** Eye color may be linked to alcohol dependence: blue-eyed people most likely to develop alcoholism

*** We're not alone, but the universe may be less crowded than we think

Seeing a supernova in a new light

!!! New model of cosmic stickiness favors 'Big Rip' demise of universe




Last Contact by Stephen Baxter (fiction) goes with the story and image above.

!!! Quantum teleportation? Producing spin-entangled electrons



* Germany to shut down coal-fired plants, extend power grid: sources

* Polar bears face steep declines because of melting sea ice: U.S. study

*** Field fires hamper French grain harvest as heatwave builds

!!! Minor changes turned Black Death germ from mild to murderous

Is Iran worth the risk for foreign oil companies?

How much do the EPA's regulations really cost?

To understand what we're doing to the planet, you need to understand this gigantic measurement

* Too Hot: Temperatures Messing With Sex of Australian Lizards

*** Scientists See Neurons Change as Memories Form

!!! Global Climate Pact Gains Momentum as China, U.S. and Brazil Detail Plans

* China Pledges to Halt Growth of Carbon Emissions in Climate Plan

*Canada First Nations fight 'broken' system for approving oil projects

*** Oil refinery in Detroit at the center of racial and environmental battle (video)

NASA: Studying an Asteroid on Earth (video)

*** NASA: Arching Eruption (video)

* Africa: United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon welcomes New Post-2020 Climate Targets Submitted By China and Republic of Korea
Webberweather, I discovered I can edit my long posts when I use 'preview comment'.
Quoting 264. LAbonbon:


The first paper they referenced that came out last week was very readable. This one...not so much. I got more out of the intro/conclusions than I did the methods (okay, I skimmed the methods section). Bit over my head, I admit. But I'm sure there are some on here that would have no difficulty absorbing even that section.

But the good news is, the intro/conclusions section portion is only a page or two :-)


What is "Self Organizing Map Cluster Analysis?"
Happy Birthday, Grothar
:)
Did someone get Grothar a flamethrower. Only way to light the candles on that cake.
Quoting 281. JustDucky251:

Did someone get Grothar a flamethrower. Only way to light the candles on that cake.


No, but I was able to get the fire department to respond on stand by in case something went wrong.
West Pacific:

TS Chan-hom is getting better organized and it will become typhoon tommorow and a super-typhoon later this week. It looks very well on satellite imagery. It should be impacting the Mariana Islands in the next few days. Typhoon Watch in effect.



TD 10W just formed a few hours ago and will be getting organized over the next few days in a favorable environment. It will near the Philippines as a typhoon and should be monitored closely.



Read more (updated wrong link previously. fixed)
Tropical storm Chan-Hom is intensifying. As of 1pm It's maximum sustained winds were at 65 mph.

Forecasters expect Chan-Hom to be a typhoon by the time it reaches the Marianas on Saturday. A Typhoon watch remains in effect for Guam Rota Tinian and Saipan which means these islands can expect typhoon strength winds of 74 miles per hour or more within the next 48 hours. Guam remains in COR3.
10W..

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EGAY
11:00 AM PhST July 2 2015
======================
The Low Pressure Area east of Luzon has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named “EGAY”

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Egay [1004 hPa] located at 13.8N 129.1E or 1,520 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 3 knots.

Additional Information
====================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Fisher folk are advised not to venture out over the eastern seaboard of Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
In Puerto Rico we Called it "Huracan de San Felipe," the tradition of naming storm with the name of Day Saint, it heat. A cat 5 plus storm, in San Juan winds were register reaching 180 t0 200 mph gust...slow mover, took 12 hours to cross our island, which is about a 100 miles long.
Quoting 266. Astrometeor:

What happened in California that got a mention on the SPC?


Three reports of 60 mph winds from a thunderstorm out in the Mojave Desert. This is what happens when they put remote measuring stations in the middle of nowhere. There were always 60 mph winds from thunderstorm outflow in the desert. I had several shredded tents to prove it. :-)
Quoting 268. Grothar:



That's just like the hat my family made me wear, the first time I ever got banned on WU. Only it was white.


Thanks for the birthday wishes everybody. You made a little old man very happy.
Happy birthday, OM. I hope you have many more.
Happy B-day Ol Man,

Thanx for the cake too, and the Chevy Dealership in Havana' !

Quoting 256. mfount:

Could you please put temps if Fahrenheit?
Who's "you", and what temps, where?
291. emguy
Tornado video from tonight. Not to bring the "Direct TV" issue back up...but over 2 MILLION people live in the Kansas City area, and this city is progressively growing quickly. A big market and we were under the gun for hours and hours....there were lots of issues and impacts throughout. All the while....Weather Channel had stupid reality shows on TV the whole time basically. Mean time, local news rocked! Weather Channel worthless again. Execs may hate this message...but look at what you did here in a big market...you dropped the ball, you got no A game.

Link
Quoting 291. emguy:

Tornado video from tonight. Not to bring the "Direct TV" issue back up...but over 2 MILLION people live in the Kansas City area, and this city is progressively growing quickly. A big market and we were under the gun for hours and hours....there were lots of issues and impacts throughout. All the while....Weather Channel had stupid reality shows on TV the whole time basically. Mean time, local news rocked! Weather Channel worthless again. Execs may hate this message...but look at what you did here in a big market...you dropped the ball, you got no A game.

Link


There are still people that watch TV out there? I get my weather and news via my phone, which I typically always have on or around me.
Quoting 257. nonblanche:



Last night the storm system did its usual split around the Fallon area. I'm hoping tonight's is more meaty, and doesn't split.
There's quite a blob of rain rotating around Highway 50 that should give you something. A lot of it is probably virga but some will make it through as the atmosphere moistens up. There's' a pretty decent looking line of thunderstorms starting to form down by Indian Springs. The temperature is 99 with a dewpoint of 52. If they can get thunderstorms out of that, you should be able to at least get a few showers.
Quoting 293. Dakster:



There are still people that watch TV out there? I get my weather and news via my phone, which I typically always have on or around me.
That's pretty much what I do as well. The weather from the net is much more timely and accurate than anything TWC has, even if they are covering weather at the time. I think the long term goal is to drive people to the weather.com site and leave what used to be TWC to show reality shows. It's pretty much what happened to TLS and Discovery so I guess there's a big market for that claptrap.
Quoting 291. emguy:

Tornado video from tonight. Not to bring the "Direct TV" issue back up...but over 2 MILLION people live in the Kansas City area, and this city is progressively growing quickly. A big market and we were under the gun for hours and hours....there were lots of issues and impacts throughout. All the while....Weather Channel had stupid reality shows on TV the whole time basically. Mean time, local news rocked! Weather Channel worthless again. Execs may hate this message...but look at what you did here in a big market...you dropped the ball, you got no A game.

Link
Local news and weather is doing such a good job because TWC has pretty much abandoned local coverage unless it's in Atlanta or NYC. TWC used to be on the big screens at all the command centers. Now it's whatever local outlet has the best meteorologists and coverage. Cantore screaming and carrying on over thundersnow is about as close to weather as TWC gets now.
Published on Jun 30, 2015

NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory caught this image of an eruption on the side of the sun on June 18, 2015. The eruption ultimately escaped the sun, growing into a substantial coronal mass ejection, or CME — a giant cloud of solar material traveling through space. This imagery is shown in the 304 Angstrom wavelength of extreme ultraviolet light, a wavelength that highlights material in the low parts of the sun’s atmosphere and that is typically colorized in red. The video clip covers about four hours of the event.

This video is public domain and can be downloaded at: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/goto?11908






Your gonna need a bigger boat!

Quoting 292. Patrap:







Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (1509)
15:00 PM JST July 2 2015
==========================
In Truks Waters

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (985 hPa) located at 11.0N 150.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 17 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 11.3N 147.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 13.2N 146.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 15.7N 143.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
15:00 PM JST July 2 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 14.4N 129.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 16.6N 127.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC RAQUEL (01U)
4:54 PM EST July 2 2015
=================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low, Former Raquel (1000 hPa) located at 6.4S 160.0E or 330 km north of Honiara, Solomon Islands has 10 minute sustained wind of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east northeast at 4 knot.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=============
12 HRS: 6.5S 160.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 6.9S 160.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 8.3S 159.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 9.4S 157.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
====================
Ex-Tropical cyclone Raquel has significantly weakened with an exposed low level circulation center [LLCC] clearly visible on the satellite imagery all day. The CIMMS vertical wind shear remains around 20-30 knots of east northeast across the system. Convection has been well away from the centre to the south of the system.

The latest Dvorak analysis indicated difficulty in obtaining DT as the pattern was based on exposed LLCC. MET=1.5 adjusted to 2.0 using PT, giving a FT=2.0. CI was still kept at 2.5.

Ex-Tropical cyclone Raquel is moving in an eastwards direction but is expected to turn towards the south in 24 hours and then towards west later. The strong east northeast wind shear should continue to constrain development in the short term. An upper trough moving eastwards across the Tasman Sea may increase the outflow to the south by Saturday, hence leading to possibly some re-development.

No further bulletin will be issued for TC RAQUEL unless re-intensification occurs.

Quoting 239. BaltimoreBrian:


Du musst Amboss oder Hammer sein.
Or, as we used to say about hunting trips up in Alaska, "some days the bear, some days chicken salad."  :)

Quoting 240. nonblanche:

Despite having shade and water available, today we lost three buff geese, one embden goose and one pullet to the heat.
My goodness, you are getting hit hard by the weather down your way. We're well into our second round of NWS-warned excess heat this season. We'll likely hit 101 F. tomorrow, after a night in the 70s. Normally we cool off to the high 40s at night around here and call it poor man's air conditioning. Not this year. You might do well to find a snow cave on Shasta or Mt. Hood if you're looking for the cool in our region.
Quoting 256. mfount:

Could you please put temps if Fahrenheit?
There are plenty of online unit converters, but if you are away from your computer it is easy to come up with the conversion formula, just remember:
Freezing temperature of water is 0C degrees or 32F degrees.
Boiling point of water is 100C degrees or 212F degrees.
Two equations, two unknowns, so just solve two linear equations.

One way is to recall the point-intercept form of a line from your HS algebra:
y = mx + b.
m is the slope of the line, b is the y intercept.
x is the independent variable, in our case in units of C, what we know.
y is the dependent variable, in our case in units of F, what we want.
Let y = f be the temperature in units of F,
Let x = c be the temperature in units of C
So f = mc + b
You will find
f = (9F/5C)c + 32F
Plug into c your value of temperature in units of C to get the temperature f in units of F.
So, as an example, for a temperature of c = 5C,
(9F/5C)(5C) + 32F = 41F
^^^^^^^^^^
Note the C units "cancel", so all the numbers are in units of F.

Quoting 259. beell:

Sometimes you're the pigeon, sometimes you're the statue
Sometimes you're the guano, sometimes you're the garden.

Quoting 268. Grothar:




Thanks for the birthday wishes everybody. You made a little old man very happy.
Once more, Happy B-Day, Big Fella! :)

Quoting 276. Dakster:

Happy B-day Gro and may you have many more.

What a great day again. No rain, sunshine, never hit 70F... Last night was in the 50s so I could get the house cooled off... Still have another week of basically around the clock light outside.

Bought some fresh caught Salmon to grill up too.
Sounds like life is good in the Great White North. Y'all getting any of the smoke from the massive number of wildfires in the Interior or out Kenai way?
Quoting 268. Grothar:



That's just like the hat my family made me wear, the first time I ever got banned on WU. Only it was white.


Thanks for the birthday wishes everybody. You made a little old man very happy.
Great post...To bad that cake is actually wwaaayyyy too small....for the candles anyway...Happy B-Day...:)
GROTHAR just had a birthday not too long ago! Something is being calculated incorrectly
Quoting 279. nonblanche:



What is "Self Organizing Map Cluster Analysis?"


Good morning from Europe, here is a wikipedia link for an introduction and short explanation of this method to create a 2 dimensional map for higher dimensional observation. Wikipedia is for some scientific questions a really good introduction, really helpful in mathematics for me. I'm a book person and reading scientific books with the mathematics would be impossible for me without this site. I have my sight on this book, because it explains multifractal cascades statistical analysis. Stumbled on this method in a paper and was intrigued. Yes I'm a nerd, but even if I understand only 10-20 % of it, I really love reading such stuff.
Storm photos:
www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-sight/wp/2015/07/0 1/stormy-weather-chasing-mother-natures-magnificen t-supercell-storms-across-america/

Quoting 305. guygee:

There are plenty of online unit converters, but if you are away from your computer it is easy to come up with the conversion formula, just remember:
Freezing temperature of water is 0C degrees or 32F degrees.
Boiling point of water is 100C degrees or 212F degrees.

Let me add a couple of really simple mnemonics.

1) Minus 40 C = Minus 40 F

2) 20 C is just about a perfect outside temperature for most humans. (20 C = 68 F)

3) 37 C is the standard human body temperature (98.6 F)

4) If you are living in location where the temperature regularly exceeds 40 C, you're either rich or miserable.
Quoting 313. rayduray2013:


Let me add a couple of really simple mnemonics.

1) Minus 40 C = Minus 40 F

2) 20 C is just about a perfect outside temperature for most humans. (20 C = 68 F)

3) 37 C is the standard human body temperature (98.6 F)

4) If you are living in location where the temperature regularly exceeds 40 C, you're either rich or miserable.



Or regularly goes below -40.

Although I'd rather be in -40C than +40C.

Quoting 308. rayduray2013:


Sounds like life is good in the Great White North. Y'all getting any of the smoke from the massive number of wildfires in the Interior or out Kenai way?



Sorry just saw this post as I was going back reading the blog.

None in the Anchorage area. Smoke has all cleared out. Most of the fires around me are "contained" or out. You can even have a charcoal BBQ now (as long as it has a lid). Fireworks are banned, but really, how do you see them when it is light out all the time anyways? As the radio announcement today said, save them for new years and snow...

It's been a little rainy too, which really helped the fire fighters get them under control here.
Another shark attack at Ocracoke. 7th this year on NC coast. Its a record
Interesting article on erosion. Alaska has some pretty dramatic disappearing land in the Northern areas. Possible linked to global warming.

"The region found to have the most dramatic erosion was the northeastern part of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska -- from Cape Halkett to Drew Point -- where soil has been eaten away at an average rate of 6.3 meters (20.7 feet) a year, according to the report."
...
"A team led by University of Colorado researchers, for example, has focused on Beaufort Sea bluffs where certain spots have eroded at rates of up to 30 meters (98 feet) a year. Their work included time-lapse photography that shows large chunks of the bluff at Drew Point disappearing over a few weeks in July 2008." - Alaska Daily News.

Full Article: north-slope-coastal-erosion-rates

What makes it really astounding is that it all happens during the melt season, which is getting longer due to global warming. The article is pretty scary overall - especially since the Gulf Coast in the L48 (Louisiana and Mississippi) have some high and in some cases higher erosion rates too.

Conventional thinking may be, who cares -- However, there are communities there that will have to be relocated (and one already has been once) AND in terms of a national significance, it affects the oil fields. BP and ConocoPhillips both have facilities that are now in danger.

Quoting 314. Dakster:





Although I'd rather be in -40C than +40C.


I share your preference for the cold, but my comfort zone is more like the range from 0 F to 0 C. Nice weather for snow cave napping. :)

Quoting 315. Dakster:



None in the Anchorage area. Smoke has all cleared out. Most of the fires around me are "contained" or out. You can even have a charcoal BBQ now (as long as it has a lid). Fireworks are banned, but really, how do you see them when it is light out all the time anyways? As the radio announcement today said, save them for new years and snow...

It's been a little rainy too, which really helped the fire fighters get them under control here.
You remind me of the four Fourth of July holidays I spent in Juneau. There was always a question of whether or not the hosts had wasted money on aerial fireworks. One year the cloud deck was so low that the tall aerials couldn't be seen up in the clouds. All we got was a hint of something like the aura of a firework before the boom.

They ban fireworks in Anchorage? I had no idea. We do fireworks here as an act of madness. This place (Bend, OR) is a tinderbox on the bleeding edge of spontaneous combustion. Yet the commercial interests still outvote the Fire Department when it comes to the smartest way to make use of our Fire Department's time.
Quoting 317. Dakster:

Interesting article on erosion. Alaska has some pretty dramatic disappearing land in the Northern areas. Possible linked to global warming.

"The region found to have the most dramatic erosion was the northeastern part of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska -- from Cape Halkett to Drew Point -- where soil has been eaten away at an average rate of 6.3 meters (20.7 feet) a year, according to the report."
...
"A team led by University of Colorado researchers, for example, has focused on Beaufort Sea bluffs where certain spots have eroded at rates of up to 30 meters (98 feet) a year. Their work included time-lapse photography that shows large chunks of the bluff at Drew Point disappearing over a few weeks in July 2008." - Alaska Daily News.

Full Article: north-slope-coastal-erosion-rates

What makes it really astounding is that it all happens during the melt season, which is getting longer due to global warming. The article is pretty scary overall - especially since the Gulf Coast in the L48 (Louisiana and Mississippi) have some high and in some cases higher erosion rates too.

Conventional thinking may be, who cares -- However, there are communities there that will have to be relocated (and one already has been once) AND in terms of a national significance, it affects the oil fields. BP and ConocoPhillips both have facilities that are now in danger.
The irony in the bold at the end is deeeeeelicious, Probably not a huge deal to them really, but still, big oil's fields getting washed away by climate change makes me smile a little.

Good morning hello with the map that shows the current development of western European temps in Celsius. For lovers of Fahrenheit: The deeper the red the more in the nineties and at some point trespassing 100F :-)
One of the easy to use calculators here.
My current temp near Frankfurt at 11.30 am (without summertime: 10.30) already more than 31C = 89F.


Very high CAPE values this afternoon in northwestern France and Benelux countries show the threat of severe storms. (Source) More see Estofex.org.

Too hot to handle?
BBC weather video, 1 July 2015 Last updated at 18:59
John Hammond talks to BBC World about the record-breaking temperatures hitting Europe and the heavy flooding that has led to landslides, killing at least 38 in Darjeeling.

And this happened yesterday to our prudent National Weather service :-)))
Weathermen issue snow alert in heatwave
The Local (Germany), Published: 01 Jul 2015 12:57 GMT 02:00
The German Weather Service (DWD) issued a weather warning for North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) on Wednesday predicting 5 to 10 cm of snow and winds of up to 60 km/h.
"Due to snowfall of between 5 and 10 cm and wind speeds of up to 60 km/h snowdrifts will build up," reads the email. It also recommends that people avoid using their cars due to the fact that in places streets "will be impassable."
The weather warning is for the first two days of July. ...

More see link above.
Quoting 324. zonc:

...All this talk of heat and not a word re the Northern NE US having one of the coldest six months in history.
For being around since 2008, you seem to have missed reading the many blog entries here that discussed the cold, snowy NE winter and spring. Anyway, I suppose to some it's noteworthy that the Northeast has been below average the past six months--though, frankly, the little area of light blue (below average) on the map below isn't nearly as impressive as the much larger area of light orange (above average) on the map, or the much larger area of orange (much above average), or the much larger area of red (record warmest).

Quoting 325. Neapolitan:

For being around since 2008, you seem to have missed reading the many blog entries here that discussed the cold, snowy NE winter and spring. Anyway, I suppose to some it's noteworthy that the Northeast has been below average the past six months--though, frankly, the little area of light blue (below average) on the map below isn't nearly as impressive as the much larger area of light orange (above average) on the map, or the much larger area of orange (much above average), or the much larger area of red (record warmest).



Was the usual revisionist crap and got deleted as such, hail.
Quoting 279. nonblanche:



What is "Self Organizing Map Cluster Analysis?"

That's exactly where I got tripped up. I did try wiki, as Chris has suggested in his post, and frankly, it didn't help me much. BUT, wiki gave a brief mention as to where/how SOM is used, and included a link to this article:

A Review of Self-Organizing Map Applications in Meteorology and Oceanography

While any math I may have learned to help understand this has long been forgotten (due to lack of use), this article really is a good summary of how SOM is used in meteorology & oceanography, and includes a brief explanation of SOM, without the overwhelming math.

Quoting 311. ChrisHamburg:



Good morning from Europe, here is a wikipedia link for an introduction and short explanation of this method to create a 2 dimensional map for higher dimensional observation. Wikipedia is for some scientific questions a really good introduction, really helpful in mathematics for me. I'm a book person and reading scientific books with the mathematics would be impossible for me without this site. I have my sight on this book, because it explains multifractal cascades statistical analysis. Stumbled on this method in a paper and was intrigued. Yes I'm a nerd, but even if I understand only 10-20 % of it, I really love reading such stuff.

Good morning, Chris. Wow, that book is not cheap. And it's only available it seems in an e version, so no possibilities of a less expensive used copy? The book is not my particular cup of tea, but nerds come in many varieties; I've got my own quirky interests :-)
Noting what Barb had to say and the heat maps for Europe.321. barbamz

This kind of heat over central Europe will be also causing a lot of snow and ice melt over the Alps region.

The below average temps for the US northeast are unlikely to be causing any problems other than minor discomfort.
The above average temps elsewhere will be causing everything from discomfort to deaths from the heat.
Quoting 326. cRRKampen:


Was the usual revisionist crap and got deleted as such, hail.

I flagged it due to the sheer disrespect shown regarding Dr. Masters. I honestly don't really care if someone espouses an opinion regarding AGW/CC that is at odds with the science - I don't flag these. But posts that allege dishonesty/lack of integrity/deceit/a mysterious agenda on the part of Dr. Masters or the scientific community in general- these I flag.

It's one thing to not understand or accept the science. But unsubstantiated, wild allegations are a whole different level of 'bad'.
Quoting 256. mfount:

Could you please put temps if Fahrenheit?
Link rapid converter
Quoting 325. Neapolitan:

For being around since 2008, you seem to have missed reading the many blog entries here that discussed the cold, snowy NE winter and spring. Anyway, I suppose to some it's noteworthy that the Northeast has been below average the past six months--though, frankly, the little area of light blue (below average) on the map below isn't nearly as impressive as the much larger area of light orange (above average) on the map, or the much larger area of orange (much above average), or the much larger area of red (record warmest).



Or, taking a global view:



Good Morning. The current MJO phase is really taking care of business in the West-Pac:


GFS MJO index forecast phase diagram
The cartoon of the day (from 2007):

Quoting 317. Dakster:

Interesting article on erosion. Alaska has some pretty dramatic disappearing land in the Northern areas. Possible linked to global warming.

"The region found to have the most dramatic erosion was the northeastern part of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska -- from Cape Halkett to Drew Point -- where soil has been eaten away at an average rate of 6.3 meters (20.7 feet) a year, according to the report."
...
"A team led by University of Colorado researchers, for example, has focused on Beaufort Sea bluffs where certain spots have eroded at rates of up to 30 meters (98 feet) a year. Their work included time-lapse photography that shows large chunks of the bluff at Drew Point disappearing over a few weeks in July 2008." - Alaska Daily News.

Full Article: north-slope-coastal-erosion-rates

What makes it really astounding is that it all happens during the melt season, which is getting longer due to global warming. The article is pretty scary overall - especially since the Gulf Coast in the L48 (Louisiana and Mississippi) have some high and in some cases higher erosion rates too.

Conventional thinking may be, who cares -- However, there are communities there that will have to be relocated (and one already has been once) AND in terms of a national significance, it affects the oil fields. BP and ConocoPhillips both have facilities that are now in danger.

This is a great article, Dakster, with some really good links. Thanks for posting this.
Here is blurb on this past tornado season and the lower activity linkage to the El Nino issue. Just noting that this was the first time in recent history when we had a strengthening El Nino in the Spring (as opposed to a phase shift) and that the most active spring tornado seasons for the US (per research) have occurred during a waning El Nino transition (either to a neutral phase or the most active period entering a La Nina period for the summer). Too early to know at this stage whether the current El Nino will persist into April-May 2016 or transition away.

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/07/how-el -ni-o-saved-you-tornado-spring


Earlier this year, scientists predicted that 2015's tornado season would likely be fairly tame, because El Niño—a global weather phenomenon marked by unusually warm surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—prevails and suppresses twister development across much of the nation. Now, with the peak tornado months of April, May, and June behind us, those predictions seem to have come true. For the first half of 2015, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, reports a preliminary count of817 tornadoes striking the United States, 19% below the 10-year average of 1006 tornadoes; the tornado shown here struck Halstead, Kansas, in May. Moreover, through 28 June, tornadoes killed only 10 people, far fewer than the 70 people killed during the first half of 2012, the 45 people killed during the first half of 2013, and the 37 people killed during the first half of 2014. The big question for next spring is whether El Niño persists or instead yields to its often more deadly opposite: La Niña ruled much of 2011, the year when a fierce tornado devastated Joplin, Missouri, and killed 158 people.
Dutch nation-wide July record was 37.1° C (19th of July 2006 so a VERY old record already ;) ), is now 37.3° C and climbing.
@338 re: tornado numbers.
Why on earth do they mention deaths from tornadoes as though it's some kind of ruler to measure severe weather? Even numbers of tornado sightings - which is what SPC collects - can be misleading.

Not arguing El Nino does not affect severe. Of course it does. Let's hope someone finds meaningful "rulers" for severe - if that's even possible.
Quoting 340. Barefootontherocks:

@338 re: tornado numbers.
Why on earth do they mention deaths from tornadoes as though it's some kind of ruler to measure severe weather? Even numbers of tornado sightings - which is what SPC collects - can be misleading.

Not arguing El Nino does not affect severe. Of course it does. Let's hope someone finds meaningful "rulers" for severe - if that's even possible.


You know, this never ending critique of scientific data because you disagree with the way it is constructed is both a poor critique and extremely tiresome. We get it, you don't like how data is calculated, uncertainty exists, and because of that, you make the false logical leap that it is impossible to know anything with any degree of accuracy.
Quoting 340. Barefootontherocks:

@338 re: tornado numbers.
Why on earth do they mention deaths from tornadoes as though it's some kind of ruler to measure severe weather? Even numbers of tornado sightings - which is what SPC collects - can be misleading.

Not arguing El Nino does not affect severe. Of course it does. Let's hope someone finds meaningful "rulers" for severe - if that's even possible.


They should just leave it at the number of confirmed on the ground tornadoes; that covers both rural and urban areas. If you used another ruler such as number of buildings destroyed, that could also be misleading if you consider a populated area strike vs. a rural area strike, One tornado in a populated area might destroy/damage 50 buildings with no deaths and another one in a rural area might hit 10 homes and kill 5 people. But the overall numbers speak for themselves.
Quoting 344. hydrus:

looks like yer going to get a little wet hydrus
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM LINFA (T1510)
21:00 PM JST July 2 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Linfa (998 hPa) located at 15.4N 128.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===========
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 16.5N 126.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 17.3N 124.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 18.6N 122.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (1509)
21:00 PM JST July 2 2015
==========================
In Truks Waters

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (980 hPa) located at 10.2N 149.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 11.1N 148.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 14.1N 146.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 16.6N 143.7E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
happy birthday gro...hope you have a great day :)


06z GFS
Quoting 349. Gearsts:

well that looks like a bad day real bad day
Quoting 339. cRRKampen:

Dutch nation-wide July record was 37.1 C (19th of July 2006 so a VERY old record already ;) ), is now 37.3 C and climbing.

At 38.0 C now.
Edit. 38.2 C now.
Heatwave Hail 'Could Have Killed Someone'
Sky NewsSky News – 2 hours 24 minutes ago
Parts of northern England have seen hail the size of golfballs as the rest of Europe swelters in record-breaking temperatures.
Violent hailstorms in Yorkshire and in County Durham damaged windows, cars and roofs. Residents said it was "unbelievable". ...
In Swaledale, Yorkshire, Linda Scott described the storm as "carnage". Her home had two windows broken, tiles came off the roof and the satellite dish snapped in half. ...

Whole report see link above.


Yesterday's storm in Swaledale, Northern England. I guess they won't see such storms too often over there.
Quoting 352. cRRKampen:


At 38.0 C now.
Edit. 38.2 C now.

Wow. Wiki says Netherland's all time heat record is 38.6 °C (102 °F), true? You're close to catch it!
Quoting 354. barbamz:


Wow. Wiki says Netherland's all time heat record is 38.6 °C (102 °F), true? You're close to catch it!



The Netherlands' all-time hottest temperature is 101.6°F (38.7°C), measured on August 23, 1944 at Warnsveld.

Dr. M.
Quoting 355. JeffMasters:




The Netherlands' all-time hottest temperature is 101.6F (38.7C), measured on August 23, 1944 at Warnsveld.

Dr. M.

Yes. Well, I think 38.2 C is going to be the value for today. Third highest ever measured in the country and by far the most reliable measurement (both previous 38 's were in June 1947 and August 1944).
We also had the highest minimum temps 'ever' last night.

We're going to try a second attack on the national all-time record on Saturday :)

(by the way, official record of Warnsveld '44 is 38.6 - there might be a double Fahrenheit conversion error there, dr. Masters :) ).
thats hot tropical wave at 32 w barely hanging on to moisture
Quoting 357. islander101010:

thats hot tropical wave at 32 w barely hanging on to moisture


No surprise:



We continue to foresee a below-average 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. A moderate to 
strong El Niño is underway, and the tropical Atlantic remains cooler than normal. We 
are still calling for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major 
hurricane landfall. A more detailed forecast will be released on 3 August. 
(as of 1 July 2015)
All new June data support our 1 June forecast and add more confidence to our 
anticipation of a strongly suppressed season. Negative factors for hurricane activity that 
persisted through June include: 1) continued emergence of a strong El Niño event, 2) 
continued unfavorable Atlantic basin sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level 
pressure (SLP) conditions, and 3) continued unfavorable horizontal and vertical wind 
shear conditions throughout the Atlantic.
Quoting 354. barbamz:


Wow. Wiki says Netherland's all time heat record is 38.6 °C (102 °F), true? You're close to catch it!


It is not the Europe I know. There have been many heat waves, but I honestly don't recall such a widespread heat wave like this one affecting so many countries simultaneously.

it's not rain....nor reflectivity....it's a mayfly hatch in wisconsin



monarch butterflies in nevada

(scrap, double post)
Typical Omega block pattern.



gulf states affected by bp oil spill too get 18.7 billion in settlement
363. Grothar
10:58 AM EDT on July 02, 2015

I find it ironic that the area where the block appears happens to correspond with the cold pool anomaly off of Greenland.................Just sayin.

The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled. Last winter there even was the coldest on record – while globally it was the hottest on record. Our recent study (Rahmstorf et al. 2015) attributes this to a weakening of the Gulf Stream System, which is apparently unique in the last thousand years.


Rahmstorf_2015_1rc
Quoting 365. weathermanwannabe:

363. Grothar
10:58 AM EDT on July 02, 2015

I find it ironic that the area where the block appears happens to correspond with the cold pool anomaly off of Greenland.................Just sayin.

The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled. Last winter there even was the coldest on record %u2013 while globally it was the hottest on record. Our recent study (Rahmstorf et al. 2015) attributes this to a weakening of the Gulf Stream System, which is apparently unique in the last thousand years.


its being caused by the drainage of cold water off Greenland ice sheet
ok...i just took the survey.
Quoting 366. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its being caused by the drainage of cold water off Greenland ice sheet


Hence the theory that Arctic warming may be impacting the polar jet pattern.
Quoting 365. weathermanwannabe:

363. Grothar
10:58 AM EDT on July 02, 2015

I find it ironic that the area where the block appears happens to correspond with the cold pool anomaly off of Greenland.................Just sayin.

The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled. Last winter there even was the coldest on record – while globally it was the hottest on record. Our recent study (Rahmstorf et al. 2015) attributes this to a weakening of the Gulf Stream System, which is apparently unique in the last thousand years.


Rahmstorf_2015_1rc


Yes. That spot has been there for quite a long time now. Every SST anomaly map reflects that feature.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 356. cRRKampen:


Yes. Well, I think 38.2� C is going to be the value for today. Third highest ever measured in the country and by far the most reliable measurement (both previous 38 's were in June 1947 and August 1944).
We also had the highest minimum temps 'ever' last night.

We're going to try a second attack on the national all-time record on Saturday :)

(by the way, official record of Warnsveld '44 is 38.6� - there might be a double Fahrenheit conversion error there, dr. Masters :) ).
Talk about weather geeks. I wonder who the brave Dutchman was who stood by his instrument shelter, still taking and recording observations, while the Allies and the Germans were pounding Holland from the air and with artillery. That record high was just two weeks before "mad Tuesday" and the beginning of harsh German measures against the Dutch, leading up to the starvation Winter. Pretty amazing.
Quoting 342. weathermanwannabe:



They should just leave it at the number of confirmed on the ground tornadoes; that covers both rural and urban areas. If you used another ruler such as number of buildings destroyed, that could also be misleading if you consider a populated area strike vs. a rural area strike, One tornado in a populated area might destroy/damage 50 buildings with no deaths and another one in a rural area might hit 10 homes and kill 5 people. But the overall numbers speak for themselves.
As I wrote earlier, property damage is not a good ruler. I'm thinking in terms of something equivalent to ACE for TCs as a measure for tornadoes - which, owing to the nature of the beast and the dependence on human reports, may not be possible.
Quoting 371. sar2401:

Talk about weather geeks. I wonder who the brave Dutchman was who stood by his instrument shelter, still taking and recording observations, while the Allies and the Germans were pounding Holland from the air and with artillery. That record high was just two weeks before "mad Tuesday" and the beginning of harsh German measures against the Dutch, leading up to the starvation Winter. Pretty amazing.

We should really find that brave Dutchman and erect a statue! LOL

The record is fairly verified, by estimates of the T850 (weather services were functioning pretty well during the war, letting up more balloons than we do nowadays maybe) of 22-23° C (a bit over today's) and surrounding stations (including some German, btw just over the border today 38.5° C - I'm using official stations only). Maastricht, where today's record was set, did 38.0° C on that 1944 day. This city also holds second place though from a different station location, 38.4° C on the 27th of June 1947.
Note: the forties were a remarkable decade. They include three of the four coldest winters in Holland since 1900: 1947, 1942, 1940 in that order, only surpassed by 1963). And the second coldest winter of past century, 1947, was followed by the hottest summer 'ever' (since at least 1706), this summer still is #1. Some blocked year, that.
folks on the east cost of florida..a very dangerous line of storms with LOTS of lightning,stay safe...
375. flsky
It got pretty dark, but I only got a few sprinkles and hardly any lightning. No hum.

Quoting 374. LargoFl:

folks on the east cost of florida..a very dangerous line of storms with LOTS of lightning,stay safe...