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State of the Climate Report: Warm and Warmer (except for eastern North America)

By: Bob Henson 8:51 PM GMT on July 17, 2015

Although the tropical Atlantic is heating up slightly with the appearance of a Cape Verde wave (see this morning’s tropical roundup post), we also have some toasty news on the national and global front. With our planet showing more and more symptoms of running a fever, the annual State of the Climate reports make for compelling lab results that confirm the diagnosis. This year’s State of the Climate report was released on Thursday as part of the July issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Like a mini-IPCC assessment, this year’s annual report--compiled by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information--involved 413 authors and 17 editors from 58 countries who reviewed and synthesized a vast body of data on what’s happened to our Earth system in the past year, from greenhouse gas increases to sea level rise.

The 2014 State of the Climate report makes it plain that last year was a landmark in global warming. The record high in globally averaged temperature (a mark almost certain to be topped in 2015) got plenty of press, but other records were set as well:

• Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—three of the most important human-produced greenhouse gases—all reached their highest global concentrations since records have been kept.

• More than 20 nations reported their warmest year on record, as did the continent of Europe. The only large land area with below-average temperatures for the year (apart from western Siberia) was eastern North America.

• Sea surface temperatures and global sea level both reached record highs, continuing the trends of recent years.

• The extent of summertime Arctic sea ice remained well below its 1980s – 1990s average, though the ice loss in 2014 was less dramatic than in several years of the past decade. Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice set new monthly extent records in each month from April to November, and the single largest extent on record was observed on September 20. It’s important to note that this wintertime ice growth around Antarctica has much less effect on climate than the summertime loss in the Arctic, largely because the Arctic loss occurs when more sunshine has a chance to be absorbed by open water.

More highlights from the report can be found in a NOAA news release and in the report itself.

Warmest June nights on record for contiguous U.S.
NOAA’s summary of June climate, also released on Thursday, revealed that last month was the second warmest June across the 48 contiguous states, beaten only by June 1933. And nighttime didn’t offer much relief.


Figure 2. Daily minimum temperatures averaged across the contiguous U.S. for June soared well above the previous record, set in 2010, and more than 1°F above any other year in records extending back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Figure 3. State-by-state rankings of temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for June 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Averaged across the nation, last month saw the warmest minimum temperatures of any June on record (see Figure 2). In Cheyenne, Wyoming, each night during the entire month saw a low temperature above the norm. June’s balmy nights were largely a result of the cloudiness and rich low-level moisture that prevailed over much of the country, keeping lows from dipping to their usual values. In the western U.S., scorching days accompanied the warm nights: more than 150 western cities broke all-time record highs for June. The states of California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Utah all notched their warmest Junes on record (Figure 3). This Climate Central analysis will show you how much your own state’s summer nights have warmed in the last few decades.

June was also very damp across much of the country (see Figure 2). The Midwestern triad of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio all experienced their wettest Junes on record; Illinois had its all-time second-wettest month (9.30”, behind only the 9.62” of September 1926). The downpours put a damper on agriculture, with many plantings delayed or compromised. Up to 5 percent of Indiana’s corn and soybean production was lost in June. “We went from a well above-normal crop to a very discouraging, below-normal crop," said Purdue Extension economist Chris Hurt at a briefing on June 26. As of July 13, about a quarter of Indiana corn and soybean crops were rated as poor or very poor.


Figure 4. Cornfields across Jay County in eastern Indiana were doused with heavy rain during the week of June 22. Image credit: Purdue University Agricultural Communication photo/Darrin Pack.

Northeast stays relatively cool
Missing out on the heat in June were Michigan and northern New England, where temperatures ran well below average for the month. As one might expect with plenty of clouds and rain, some states had an unusually compressed temperature range. In Pennsylvania, June’s average daily highs were the 37th coolest on the record, but the daily lows were the 7th warmest. Areas northeast of Pennsylvania are finding it especially tough to warm up this year, even with all the winter snow long gone. The first half of 2015 was among the top 20 coldest January-to-June periods on record for New York and all the New England states. This month, temperatures are running cooler than average across most of the country east of the Rockies, in keeping with the warm-west/cool-east pattern that’s been so persistent for the past year-plus. Meanwhile, the Pacific states continue to roast, including California, with this year to date warmer than all previous Jan-Jun periods in California, Oregon, Washington, and Nevada (see Figure 5).


Figure 5. Average temperatures across California for the period January through June 2015 topped the previous record for the first half of the calendar year, which had been set in 2014. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Heat and drought across the Caribbean into South Florida
Along with the Pacific states, Florida is also cooking: the year to date is the fourth warmest on record for the Sunshine State. In particular, South Florida and the Caribbean have been extremely hot and dry. It was the driest June in 81 years of recordkeeping in Stuart, Florida, and in 110 years of records at Coloso, Puerto Rico. Strict water rationing is now in effect across eastern Puerto Rico: in one location, water is turned off for 48 hours and then on for 24 hours. According to the NWS office in San Juan, El Niño tends to bring the north Caribbean ample moisture during the normally dry months of winter and spring, but below-average rainfall from May through November.

I’ll have a special report this weekend on progress in severe weather modeling and prediction. Jeff Masters and I will both be back on board next week. Have a great start to your weekend!

Bob Henson


Climate Summaries Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hey all, apologies for shortly interrupting normal programming here.

It seems there is a misunderstanding about a recent admin message regarding comments which contain lists of external links. Links are totally fine to post in comments on featured blogs, just not super-long lists that are off-topic or otherwise distracting.

We want to clear this up for everyone by simply adding some verbiage to the Community Standards as well as both Jeff’s & Ricky’s Rules of the Road, which reads: “Posting comments which contain links to external sites is allowed, but please keep the number of links to a maximum of 10-12. Links should also be relevant to the blog topic and/or discussion topic at hand.”

Note: Feel free to post as many links as you wish in your own blog (or other blogs-at-large). You can also just post 1 link on a featured blog, which points to your own blog with the longer list of links.

Hope this helps! We are definitely not trying to silence the community. These types of comments were getting flagged more and more. But, we never intended for anyone to stop posting all links. We are happy that the majority of the community enjoys sharing and reading comments with links to interesting and educational resources on our featured blogs.
Thanks again Mr. Henson....
Thanks for the clarification, Michelle. And thanks for the awesome--and disturbing--blog entry, Bob. Some may--and doubtless will--disagree with me, but those temperature-over-time graphs (Figures 2 & 5) seem to be hinting at a warming world.

Yikes.

Now let's see what the El Nino does to those graphs...
Quoting 1. sensitivethug:

Hey all, apologies for shortly interrupting normal programming here.

It seems there is a misunderstanding about a recent admin message regarding comments which contain lists of external links. Links are totally fine to post in comments on featured blogs, just not super-long lists that are off-topic or otherwise distracting.

We want to clear this up for everyone by simply adding some verbiage to the Community Standards as well as both Jeff’s & Ricky’s Rules of the Road, which reads: “Posting comments which contain links to external sites is allowed, but please keep the number of links to a maximum of 10-12. Links should also be relevant to the blog topic and/or discussion topic at hand.”

Note: Feel free to post as many links as you wish in your own blog (or other blogs-at-large). You can also just post 1 link on a featured blog, which points to your own blog with the longer list of links.

Hope this helps! We are definitely not trying to silence the community. These types of comments were getting flagged more and more. But, we never intended for anyone to stop posting all links. We are happy that the majority of the community enjoys sharing and reading comments with links to interesting and educational resources on our featured blogs.


Well, I always enjoy BaltimoreBrian's daily links. Guess he'll have to go to plan "B".



when's DMAX :P
The Antarctic sea ice growth is one of the most interesting things going on in connection with the climate right now, IMO. We know Antarctica isn't getting colder, so what is it? Changing wind patterns? Lower salinity on top of the ocean? Expect a lot of papers on this subject in the next few years.
Quoting 5. JrWeathermanFL:




when's DMAX :P
So pretty!
Quoting 7. Gearsts:

So pretty!


Still better than Jose
So may Brian post his very popular link here again? It's on the cutting edge in science and climate change. Know it's a little longer than 10-12, but only by a small margin. Is there hedge room there? Thanks Michelle for clearing that up for us in your post. :)
thanks for early evening update have a great weekend gentlemen
Everyone have a safe weather weekend and will check back on Monday. Leaving this final shout-out to Grothar:



Quoting 6. AdamReith:

The Antarctic sea ice growth is one of the most interesting things going on in connection with the climate right now, IMO. We know Antarctica isn't getting colder, so what is it? Changing wind patterns? Lower salinity on top of the ocean? Expect a lot of papers on this subject in the next few years.
 Here is one (I am out for the Weekend).....................Bye folks.

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/05/antarc tic-researchers-ponder-challenges-posed-increasing -sea-ice

Scientists working in Antarctica are feeling the impact of climate change in ways the public might find surprising. Although global warming is causing Arctic ice to melt and glaciers around the world to shrink, the problem in Antarctica is that the sea ice surrounding the continent is increasing and now hampering ship navigation and resupply operations. This week, scientists and logistics experts from the 30 nations working on the continent are meeting in Hobart, Australia, to exchange ideas on coping with the sea ice challenge.

The underlying mechanism is fairly well understood, says Tony Worby, a sea ice specialist at the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. "We know that the changing Antarctic sea ice extent is very largely driven by changes in wind,” he says. “In turn, we know those changes are driven by the depletion of ozone in the stratosphere as well as increasing greenhouse gases at the surface." The new wind patterns blow Antarctic sea ice away from the continent and then more ice forms close to shore. This doesn't occur in the Arctic because the ocean is hemmed in by land masses. And "it's quite a lot windier around Antarctica than in the Arctic," Worby says.

The area covered by Antarctic sea ice has been growing roughly 1.2% each decade since 1979. Last September, it reached a record 20 million square kilometers surrounding the 14 square kilometer continent. The combined 34 million square kilometers of ice at the end of the austral winter is more than 3.5 times the area of the United States.

6 water spouts were spotted in a assembly line on the Chesapeake Bay this morning with a seventh independent one.One women says what it felt like to be caught in the middle of one.

At one point, Thomson and officers on the boat lost track of a spout near them. Then it reappeared right next to the boat. Before they knew it, the crew was in the middle of it.
She described the experience as a little bit of rain, followed by a blast of cold air, then a two-second downpour of heavy rain. It was over in about five seconds, she said.


Link

Link
Quoting 5. JrWeathermanFL:




when's DMAX :P

Well it peaks at sunrise tomorrow

Dmin peaks at sunset this evening

So when the sun sets it should start to feel less of Dmin and more of Dmax but noticeable effect don't normally show up till after midnight

I am gathering from this post that this winter will be a lot like last winter? Maybe even worse?


looks like a decent circulation "maybe" coming together around 10N/40W for 93L
Quoting 2. PedleyCA:

Thanks again Mr. Henson....


How's your drought doing Pedley? Getting any rain?
Quoting 16. stormpetrol:



looks like a decent circulation "maybe" coming together around 10N/40W for 93L

I notice that too. Looks like Ernesto when that little blip of storms was all he was but he had his outer bands still.

Its in the center of the wave so that helps.
Quoting 15. Dakster:

I am gathering from this post that this winter will be a lot like last winter? Maybe even worse?

I see some trees turning early again and dropping there leaves even.The trees predicted the last two winters correctly (2013-2014,2014-2015) which were both cold and snowy (Winter came rather late in 2015) but still the trees were the best predictors.Now we did suffer from a drought kind of because May was rather dry so it may be because of that.We'll see at the end of winter 2016 if the trees were correct again.
Quoting 42. JrWeathermanFL:

Slight rotation on Tampa Radar

That is, if you stare at it long enough



There actually is a weak surface low up over the big bend! Breezes have picked up around the area and pressure have dropped, the result means tomorrow could be even wetter than today if that's even possible, lol.


Had some late day storms fire over us
Hi all-
I wish we could hear from StormtrackerScott on 93L. There seems to be a void without his comments.
Quoting 8. JrWeathermanFL:



Still better than Jose
not really
Quoting 22. rmbjoe1954:

Hi all-
I wish we could hear from StormtrackerScott on 93L. There seems to be a void without his comments.
What happen?
Quoting 19. washingtonian115:

I see some trees turning early again and dropping there leaves even.The trees predicted the last two winters correctly (2013-2014,2014-2015) which were both cold and snowy (Winter came rather late in 2015) but still the trees were the best predictors.Now we did suffer from a drought kind of because May was rather dry so it may be because of that.We'll see at the end of winter 2016 if the trees were correct again.
I am seeing some trees doing the same too in spots.
At least there's a center here.
Quoting 24. Gearsts:

What happen?


He might have been punished again. I wonder of the future of these African waves . If they are healthy enough we could eventually see a potentially bad storm threatening the SE CONUS.
Quoting 27. rmbjoe1954:



He might have been punished again. I wonder of the future of these African waves . If they are healthy enough we could eventually see a potentially bad storm threatening the SE CONUSm even in El Nino conditions.
Quoting 20. Jedkins01:



There actually is a weak surface low up over the big bend! Breezes have picked up around the area and pressure have dropped, the result means tomorrow could be even wetter than today if that's even possible, lol.


Remember all that rain we missed yesterday Jedkins? We found it today lol

4.3 inches today at my location, a majority of which fell before 9am!
If invest 93 can get north of the islands Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, etc. It has a chance to develop. SSTs are very warm close to home and wind shear is relatively low close to home, and moderate close to the islands. If Invest 93 goes South of the islands into the Caribbean forget she is as good as dead. Also if Invest 93 tracks north of the islands near Bahamas : Florida to New England has to be in play for a possible strike. The only problem is its in hostile conditions now, so everything is a big IF
ERRRRRRR. Been a while since I've uploaded a video..

I give up... Here is the link if someone else wants to embed the file

LInk


Quoting 16. stormpetrol:



looks like a decent circulation "maybe" coming together around 10N/40W for 93L

agreed

looking at Vort and wind data 10N/40W seems about right
also very little dry air affecting it
and 5-10kts shear with a growing upper anticyclone on top of it
and shear falling to the W and WNW of it
looking at the steering flow should be a general W movement
that high seems to be getting stronger
Quoting 26. Gearsts:

At least there's a center here.



93L has enough convection even in its current state for like 50 Joses
Quoting 21. JrWeathermanFL:



Had some late day storms fire over us
Danny! Too late folks I already called it lol
Quoting 27. rmbjoe1954:



He might have been punished again. I wonder of the future of these African waves . If they are healthy enough we could eventually see a potentially bad storm threatening the SE CONUS.



i sent you mail please check it
The SoC Report notes, not surprisingly,

"Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—the major greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—once again all reached record high average atmospheric concentrations for the year. Carbon dioxide increased by 1.9 ppm to reach a globally averaged value of 397.2 ppm for 2014. Altogether, 5 major and 15 minor greenhouse gases contributed 2.94 W m–2 of direct radiative forcing, which is 36% greater than their contributions just a quarter century ago."

I suppose it's a minor consolation that the CO2 increase was just under 2 ppm last year. Still, we cannot count on this rate's continuing, because there is an immense amount of carbon likely to be released from the thawing Arctic. Unless anthropogenic emissions can be curtailed, we will certainly double the pre-industrial concentration of 280 ppm before the turn of the century, altering our climate to something vastly different from what human civilization is accustomed to.
Quoting 4. ChillinInTheKeys:



Well, I always enjoy BaltimoreBrian's daily links. Guess he'll have to go to plan "B".
Bloggers can still post links in featured blogs, no problem. Just keep 'em relevant and max 10-12. If you want to share a longer list, just post it in your own blog and then share the hyperlink to that post.
Some Indian men are marrying multiple wives to help beat drought

I don't trust CNN totally, but the video with the news story shows that at least one Indian man has done so.
Unsurprisingly, Invest 93L is a disorganized mess this evening. There is only about a 24 hour window before upper-level winds become very unfavorable, so development odds appear lower than ever. Maybe 10% as the NHC has indicated.

Better luck next time.

Quoting 30. WeatherConvoy:

If invest 93 can get north of the islands Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, etc. It has a chance to develop. SSTs are very warm close to home and wind shear is relatively low close to home, and moderate close to the islands. If Invest 93 goes South of the islands into the Caribbean forget she is as good as dead. Also if Invest 93 tracks north of the islands near Bahamas : Florida to New England has to be in play for a possible strike. The only problem is its in hostile conditions now, so everything is a big IF


actually I disagree with the second part there
if 93L goes S of the Islands it may survive
there have been some indications that shear in the area may back off some what as the upper low N of PR moves Nward with the systems upper anticyclone it may assist with bringing down some of that shear

I know this though if this become the case conditions wont be perfect on either route but it may have to deal with more shear in the Caribbean than if it were in Bahamas it would look uglier too but I don't think it would be dead



Climate Change Is Setting the World on Fire

Maddie Stone


What happens when you mix record-smashing heat and exceptional drought? Fire! Lots of fire! But climate change isn’t just bringing more fires to our doorstep, although it’s accomplishing that quite handily. It’s making fire seasons longer.

That’s according to a study published this week in Nature Communications, which shows that fire weather seasons have, on average, grown 18.7 percent longer across the Earth’s surface since 1979. What’s more, the global burnable area affected by fire seasons has doubled, meaning areas that didn’t used to be fire prone are starting to look rather combustible. The reason? Hotter, drier conditions across vast swaths of our planet’s vegetated surface.

Literally, climate change is setting the world on fire.

Too Many Hot Days

Wildfires play a key role in fire-adapted ecosystems, creating open patches in forests and grasslands that promote biodiversity. Certain fire-adapted plants require a burn in order for their seeds to germinate. But the recent surge in extremely destructive fires, such as those we’ve seen raging across Alaskan and Canadian boreal forests this summer, is pushing many ecosystems beyond their disaster tolerance. Needless to say, it’s also causing substantial property damage and placing additional human lives in danger.

In their study, the researchers collected fire weather data—things like maximum annual temperature, number of rain-free days, and maximum windspeed—in three global meteorological datasets, from 1979 to 2013. They used the data to calculate several different fire danger indices and to estimate global fire weather season lengths.

Globally, fire season length has increased nearly 20 percent since 1979, and the global vegetated area affected by longer fire seasons has doubled from 10 to 20 percent. Both of these metrics (shown in panels a and b below) are strongly correlated with a global increase in the number of rain-free days (c):

Climate Change Is Setting the World on Fire

Quoting 40. wunderkidcayman:



actually I disagree with the second part there
if 93L goes S of the Islands it may survive
there have been some indications that shear in the area may back off some what as the upper low N of PR moves NW-NNWward with the systems upper anticyclone it may assist with bringing down some of that shear

I know this though if this become the case conditions wont be perfect on either route but it may have to deal with more shear in the Caribbean than if it were in Bahamas it would look uglier too but I don't think it would be dead
Conditions have been horrible in the carribean with shear reaching up to 60 knots at times.North of the caribbean,off the S.E U.S coast and in the gulf have proven to have the best conditions so far.


invest 93L its over and go down to 0% by 8pm tonight!
Quoting 42. washingtonian115:

Conditions have been horrible in the carribean with shear reaching up to 60 knots at times.North of the caribbean,off the S.E U.S coast and in the gulf have proven to have the best conditions so far.


yup, I think the chances of it surviving is higher if it goes north of the Islands
Quoting 42. washingtonian115:

Conditions have been horrible in the carribean with shear reaching up to 60 knots at times.North of the caribbean,off the S.E U.S coast and in the gulf have proven to have the best conditions so far.

50kts

and its better than what it was for nearly 30 days
before its been 70-80kts 90kts at times

its gonna fall some more

look Im not saying shear will fall down into the perfect range but it should be enough for 93L to survive

Quoting 43. hurricanes2018:



invest 93L its over and go down to 0% by 8pm tonight!


no it is not
Quoting 33. JrWeathermanFL:



93L has enough convection even in its current state for like 50 Joses
Quoting 46. wunderkidcayman:


50kts

and its better than what it was for nearly 30 days
before its been 70-80kts 90kts at times

its gonna fall some more

look Im not saying shear will fall down into the perfect range but it should be enough for 93L to survive



no it is not
Nothing developing here.
Quoting 45. Hurricanes101:



yup, I think the chances of it surviving is higher if it goes north of the Islands

nah if it goes in the Caribbean it will survive but it will have to put up a good fight
yeah if it goes N it may just have a easier time


anyway guys lets just see what happens over the next 24-72hrs ok see how 93L is doing and see how the conditions ahead of it is looking
There's nothing here... I think the 10% was warranted, there's always room for surprises, but this never had much of a chance. Again, even in an active year this is still not a common area to look for TC genesis at this time.

Quoting 49. wunderkidcayman:


nah if it goes in the Caribbean it will survive but it will have to put up a good fight
yeah if it goes N it may just have a easier time


anyway guys lets just see what happens over the next 24-72hrs ok see how 93L is doing and see how the conditions ahead of it is looking


probably wont be around in 24-72 hours
That sounds fair. I will post the few articles that are most important here (which I marked with the !!!) and the complete list will be on my blog. The number of articles in the short list will usually be 5 or fewer.
Quoting 51. Hurricanes101:



probably wont be around in 24-72 hours
It will probably be a brief tropical storm like Claudette.
Quoting 45. Hurricanes101:



yup, I think the chances of it surviving is higher if it goes north of the Islands
Correct! Monster ridge will build back in starting this weekend so our highs will be in the 90's through next week,and monster ridge usually means favorable shear off the S.E U.S.93L will not survive if it goes into the caribbean period.
Quoting 48. Gearsts:

Nothing developing here.



as I said lets watch over the next few days
Quoting 51. Hurricanes101:



probably wont be around in 24-72 hours


as I said we wait and see
What will become of 93L ?

A weak low
B open wave
C dissciapte
D TD

July doing it's thing.
Quoting 57. ackee:

What will become of 93L ?

A weak low
B open wave
C dissciapte
D TD




dissciapte :P
most waves / lows this year will have to survive a belt of westerlies and get north of the islands to have a chance. The Low In N FL bares more watching.
Quoting 57. ackee:

What will become of 93L ?

A weak low
B open wave
C dissciapte
D TD



D or E
TD 4 or TS Danny
Seems steering is Nil to Southerly.

Quoting 57. ackee:

What will become of 93L ?

A weak low
B open wave
C dissciapte
D TD


More than td.
Quoting 61. ProgressivePulse:

most waves / lows this year will have to survive a belt of westerlies and get north of the islands to have a chance. The Low In N FL bares more watching.


agreed, this weather in West Central Florida is forecast to continue for another week. Could be time for something to develop?
Quoting 65. Hurricanes101:



agreed, this weather in West Central Florida is forecast to continue for another week. Could be time for something to develop?


Anything festering there deserves a look. As many pointed out earlier, something's a bit odd.
Quoting 60. JrWeathermanFL:



dissciapte :P
Heh. Been watching tropical weather a long time, pretty sure I've never seen a system do that.
Quoting 59. wunderkidcayman:






Heat content and sea surface temperature values can be as high as they want, nothing is forming if the upper-level environment isn't at least marginally favorable.
Quoting 67. AdamReith:

Heh. Been watching tropical weather a long time, pretty sure I've never seen system do that.
This is not necessarily dissipating, but Tropical Storm Chris literally had it's convection run away from him.
Quoting 52. BaltimoreBrian:

That sounds fair. I will post the few articles that are most important here (which I marked with the !!!) and the complete list will be on my blog.
Great - thank you!
Monster Ridge Bake the U.S will be back in full force tomorrow with temps in the low to mid 90's and dew points in the 70's making it feel close to 105 at times and Sunday will be worst.This is definitely a weekend where you wait until the sun goes down.
Quoting 57. ackee:

What will become of 93L ?

A weak low
B open wave
C dissciapte
D TD





A at most but likely C.
Quoting 71. washingtonian115:

Monster Ridge Bake the U.S will be back in full force tomorrow with temps in the low to mid 90's and dew points in the 70's making it feel close to 105 at times and Sunday will be worst.This is definitely a weekend where you wait until the sun goes down.


Monster ridge and this. Didn't really start looking at this area until this evening, something fishy there.

Those warm waters will move south towards the coast of africa?
Quoting 71. washingtonian115:

Monster Ridge Bake the U.S will be back in full force tomorrow with temps in the low to mid 90's and dew points in the 70's making it feel close to 105 at times and Sunday will be worst.This is definitely a weekend where you wait until the sun goes down.
Many people gonna be using the fans and AC this weekend!
Quoting 41. Patrap:




Climate Change Is Setting the World on Fire

Maddie Stone


What happens when you mix record-smashing heat and exceptional drought? Fire! Lots of fire! But climate change isn’t just bringing more fires to our doorstep, although it’s accomplishing that quite handily. It’s making fire seasons longer.

That’s according to a study published this week in Nature Communications, which shows that fire weather seasons have, on average, grown 18.7 percent longer across the Earth’s surface since 1979. What’s more, the global burnable area affected by fire seasons has doubled, meaning areas that didn’t used to be fire prone are starting to look rather combustible. The reason? Hotter, drier conditions across vast swaths of our planet’s vegetated surface.

Literally, climate change is setting the world on fire.

Too Many Hot Days

Wildfires play a key role in fire-adapted ecosystems, creating open patches in forests and grasslands that promote biodiversity. Certain fire-adapted plants require a burn in order for their seeds to germinate. But the recent surge in extremely destructive fires, such as those we’ve seen raging across Alaskan and Canadian boreal forests this summer, is pushing many ecosystems beyond their disaster tolerance. Needless to say, it’s also causing substantial property damage and placing additional human lives in danger.

In their study, the researchers collected fire weather data—things like maximum annual temperature, number of rain-free days, and maximum windspeed—in three global meteorological datasets, from 1979 to 2013. They used the data to calculate several different fire danger indices and to estimate global fire weather season lengths.

Globally, fire season length has increased nearly 20 percent since 1979, and the global vegetated area affected by longer fire seasons has doubled from 10 to 20 percent. Both of these metrics (shown in panels a and b below) are strongly correlated with a global increase in the number of rain-free days (c):

Climate Change Is Setting the World on Fire



This is really scary. How do we prevent it from happening?
Quoting 34. Tornado6042008X:

Danny! Too late folks I already called it lol
Seems to be in better conditions than in the Caribbean, if it wanted to develop.
Quoting 70. sensitivethug:

Great - thank you!


YAY...wait what???
Quoting 52. BaltimoreBrian:

That sounds fair. I will post the few articles that are most important here (which I marked with the !!!) and the complete list will be on my blog. The number of articles in the short list will usually be 5 or fewer.


Yippee! I love your lists. Happy to hear that you will continue to post them
Quoting 68. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Heat content and sea surface temperature values can be as high as they want, nothing is forming if the upper-level environment isn't at least marginally favorable.


I know that
8pm TWO no change
They Make Water Out of Sludge in Sao Paulo Now

With El Nino settling into a strong-to-monstrous mode and with the world now baking under 1 C of global temperature increases since the 1880s, a large swath from South American through to the Caribbean is suffering from extreme drought.

Link
Quoting 52. BaltimoreBrian:

That sounds fair. I will post the few articles that are most important here (which I marked with the !!!) and the complete list will be on my blog. The number of articles in the short list will usually be 5 or fewer.


Word!

There seems to be so much reading out there on a daily basis a nice concise list of the most important stories is valuable. I happen to be a fan of some of the more distant links so a link to your blog along with the daily top stories would be much appreciated.
Quoting 24. Gearsts:

What happen?

Probably will be a Cat 5 hitting Longwood! LOL
Will be interesting to see how 93L goes the next day or so. Maybe it can pull a Claudette? lol
So this is a scary thing that's happening today:

Link
Concerning high temp anomalies let us just stand in awe of "the blob"

Nice summer evening, with the cicadas singing away!
Quoting 93. Climate175:

Nice summer evening, with the cicadas singing away!


I miss that. Dont hear much of that in Houston Texas. I also miss the lightening bugs.
Summer is my favorite time of year to visit my brother in Ohio.

I'm there with your mentally Climate175 ....
Quoting 17. Dakster:



How's your drought doing Pedley? Getting any rain?

We might get some Delores assisted ran this weekend...
Quoting 57. ackee:

What will become of 93L ?

A weak low
B open wave
C dissciapte
D TD




F: Nothing is there to begin with.
Quoting 92. wartsttocs:

Concerning high temp anomalies let us just stand in awe of "the blob"


Those better hold by the winter for some jamming!
Get me to Maine!
100. txjac
Quoting 96. PedleyCA:


We might get some Delores assisted ran this weekend...


And you deserve it Ped ....got my fingers crossed for you
Quoting 71. washingtonian115:

Monster Ridge Bake the U.S will be back in full force tomorrow with temps in the low to mid 90's and dew points in the 70's making it feel close to 105 at times and Sunday will be worst.This is definitely a weekend where you wait until the sun goes down.


And dewpoints will be higher than typical, perhaps because of trajectories over the sodden midwest.
Yeah. yuck!. Of course thursday was a great day and we all of course had to be at work. :-(
That's an anomaly map, not an SST map, right?

Quoting 76. Gearsts:

Those warm waters will move south towards the coast of africa?

Quoting 103. BayFog:

That's an anomaly map, not an SST map, right?


sst anomaly
00Z data is in

Models on 93L has shifted S and shifted a lot W
Quoting 19. washingtonian115:

I see some trees turning early again and dropping there leaves even.The trees predicted the last two winters correctly (2013-2014,2014-2015) which were both cold and snowy (Winter came rather late in 2015) but still the trees were the best predictors.Now we did suffer from a drought kind of because May was rather dry so it may be because of that.We'll see at the end of winter 2016 if the trees were correct again.


Trees do this when they are stressed. Drought (most years) and flooding which kills a lot of the roots (this year)
are common summer stressors here.
Quoting 57. ackee:

What will become of 93L ?

A weak low
B open wave
C dissciapte
D TD


If the vote is still open I'd go with E...decapitation!, upon entering the dead zone between 50-60..in this case a slow painful death as it's convection gets sheared off limb by limb before that point and finally the head of the beast gets cut-off and tossed into the sea like so much chum for the sharks...leaving behind nothing but voodoo remnants which remain in the SWW carib meandering for the rest of the season. But it's probably best to wait and see for 24-72 hours.
I still say some of you guys are overcasting/hypecasting the Shear levels to be when 93L gets into the area
Somewhat different though. There is actually no pool of warm water corresponding to the anomaly concentration. There remains a gradient, albeit shifted. It's good information nonetheless, indicating deviations from the historic norm.
Quoting 104. Gearsts:

sst anomaly
Dmax start in a few hrs
Quoting 102. georgevandenberghe:



And dewpoints will be higher than typical, perhaps because of trajectories over the sodden midwest.
Yeah. yuck!. Of course thursday was a great day and we all of course had to be at work. :-(

I could sit outside for lunch today without roasting in the sun.The nice little breezes were a great addition.To bad this weather won't be lasting and will be replaced with horrid heat for the weekend and upcoming week.
Looks like they've finally updated the SST overlays on the NOAA satellite images.
Satellites: Earth Is Nearly In Its 21st Year Without Global Warming



Photo of Michael Bastasch

Michael Bastasch


Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/17/satellites-earth -is-nearly-in-its-21st-year-without-global-warming /#ixzz3gCa8WJ8y
After September of this year, the Earth will be entering its 21st year without statistically significant warming trend, according to satellite-derived temperature data.

Since September 1994, University of Alabama in Huntsville’s satellite temperature data has shown no statistically significant global warming trend. For over 20 years there’s been no warming trend apparent in the satellite records and will soon be entering into year 21 with no warming trend apparent in satellite data — which examines the lowest few miles of the Earth’s atmosphere.

Satellite data from the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) group also shows a prolonged “hiatus” in global warming. After November of this year, RSS data will be in its 21st year without warming. Ironically, the so-called “hiatus” in warming started when then vice President Al Gore and environmental groups touted RSS satellite data as evidence a slight warming trend since 1979.

Source: RSS, http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperat ures/
Source: RSS, http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperat ures/

For years, climate scientists have been debating the “hiatus” in global warming, pushing dozens of explanations for why global temperatures had not risen significantly in the last decade or so in the surface record and for the last two decades in the satellite record. but the debate was cut short in June when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published a study claiming the “hiatus” never existed.


Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/17/satellites-earth -is-nearly-in-its-21st-year-without-global-warming /#ixzz3gCYUQ0hi

This was a Good Read and wanted to share it with you all

Taco :o)
You know the Atlantic is slow and boring when we are fighting over that. ;)
Quoting 79. Kenfa03:


This is really scary. How do we prevent it from happening?
Uh, it's already happening. We were supposed to do something about it back when we first knew it was coming.

Did you mean, "How can we prevent it from getting worse?" Because it probably will.
Quoting 118. Gearsts:

You know the Atlantic is slow and boring when we are fighting over that. ;)


Stop going on about and be happy or keep quite go away and don't come back till we are out of this El Niño

Because El Niño years thing ain't that great so yeah we are fighting over the ugliest system we can get

Quoting 121. Hurricanes101:



so are ALL meteoroglists out there

face it, facts are there - this El Nino will be one of the strongest on record and this season is going to be average at best in terms of named storms. Also I have seen no one on here that knows what they are talking about say anything relating the slow pace of the season to how the storms will impact land.

Just because it is something you may not want to hear, does not make it less true


No actually not all

Also
El Niño will not be the strongest one
Quoting 121. Hurricanes101:



so are ALL meteoroglists out there

face it, facts are there - this El Nino will be one of the strongest on record and this season is going to be average at best in terms of named storms. Also I have seen no one on here that knows what they are talking about say anything relating the slow pace of the season to how the storms will impact land.

Just because it is something you may not want to hear, does not make it less true

We need the straight minded folks out there like us to step up if they're out there. This is getting pretty ridiculous. Nothing is going to come of this.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1100 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions
could be marginally conducive for some slow development of this
disturbance through the weekend before becoming much less conducive
by early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 124. MAweatherboy1:


We need the straight minded folks out there like us to step up if they're out there. This is getting pretty ridiculous. Nothing is going to come of this.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1100 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands continues to produce
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions
could be marginally conducive for some slow development of this
disturbance through the weekend before becoming much less conducive
by early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart



The surface trof in the gulf has more of a shot to develop than 93L
The charts don't lie xD.Shear is unfavorable in the caribbean because of El nino.60 knots of shear is VERY destructive to a tropical cyclone and so is 30 knots.How hard is that to understand? How am I downcasting the season? I still believe we are not at all in the "clear" by any means especially if we get home grown systems this year which seem prominent as Ana,Bill and Claudette to some extent have demonstrated.
Quoting 125. Tazmanian:




what? watch it buster that my friend your talkng about

I'm assuming there's no mod on duty right now, as personal shots like that have no place. Flag it out if you're here. 119 also.
Quoting 121. Hurricanes101:



so are ALL meteoroglists out there

face it, facts are there - this El Nino will be one of the strongest on record and this season is going to be average at best in terms of named storms. Also I have seen no one on here that knows what they are talking about say anything relating the slow pace of the season to how the storms will impact land.

Just because it is something you may not want to hear, does not make it less true

Not trying to be mean, but you guys are starting to piss me off. My opinion, not yours. Anyways, not all meteorologists are caring about this el nino. If we, me and WKC want to put faith in this season, let us.
Now, now it's nobody's fault 93L looks so bad...

Quoting 128. MAweatherboy1:


I'm assuming there's no mod on duty right now, as personal shots like that have no place. Flag it out if you're here. 119 also.



boy things do get hurry in here fast with out a mod in here



oh mods where are you come out come out where ever you are
Quoting 118. Gearsts:

You know the Atlantic is slow and boring when we are fighting over that. ;)


No the Atlantic isn't slow and boring. Last time i checked November 30 wasn't here yet.
122. wunderkidcayman
keep quite go away and don't come back till we are out of this El Niño
Quoting 129. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Not trying to be mean, but you guys are starting to piss me off. My opinion, not yours. Anyways, not all meteorologists are caring about this el nino. If we, me and WKC want to put faith in this season, let us.




you better go take a chill pill or some in
OMG the blog today is crazy! admins here or mods anyone?
Quoting 130. Skyepony:

Now, now it's nobody's fault 93L looks so bad...

Holly molly! What in the world happened! It hasn't even hit the wall of shear yet xD.
Quoting 129. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Not trying to be mean, but you guys are starting to piss me off. My opinion, not yours. Anyways, not all meteorologists are caring about this el nino. If we, me and WKC want to put faith in this season, let us.


It is our opinion that 93L will not develop and this season will be below average. Only difference is we are telling you why we feel those things will happen instead of throwing a temper tantrum.

Putting faith is one thing. Chasing things that have no chance of developing and putting others down that have a different opinion is another. Conditions are hostile ahead of 93L. The system in the Atlantic with the most potential is likely in the Eastern Gulf right now. 93L was impressive when it was designated, but it does not mean it has any chance to develop.
Quoting 130. Skyepony:

Now, now it's nobody's fault 93L looks so bad...



You're right it isn't our fault. Nor is it anyone's fault to throw personal shots. I'm just speaking my mind on the subject.
I think 93L has a about a 30-40% chance to become a named storm, I have seen worse that made it!
New science and model results in Sun predicted to enter "Maunder minimum" event between 2030 and 2040, with solar flux reduced by about 3W/m^2.

http://phys.org/news/2015-07-ice-age.html


After it starts, apparently some time in the 2030 to 2040 decade, it is predicted to last for 30 years by the model.


I believe this would be catastrophic for the first several years before a new equilibrium is achieved with the SST.


I would be interested in hearing Dr. Masters' opinion on the theoretical impacts this would have on tropical cyclone and tornado formation.

I believe this should increase TC formation until the SST reaches new equilibrium, due to increased potential difference between SST and upper troposphere, and neutral ENSO years would be devastating to the U.S. under this scenario IMO.

Nevertheless, I want to hear the expert opinion..
Currently there is 50kts shear in the Caribbean

I think that by the time 93L nears that 55W/60W area shear in the Caribbean will be lower

Buy whatever just just sit back wait and watch see what happens and we will congratulate who ever ends up being right
More tornadoes tonight, this time in South Dakota. Impressive semi-discrete supercells. No tornado reports yet on the SPC page but there have been multiple confirmations as well as damage reported in Webster, SD, not to mention the impressive radar signatures.

Edit: On behalf of all of us, thanks, Skye.


850mb vort more consolidated
Quoting 117. taco2me61:

Satellites: Earth Is Nearly In Its 21st Year Without Global Warming



Photo of Michael Bastasch

Michael Bastasch


Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/17/satellites-earth -is-nearly-in-its-21st-year-without-global-warming /#ixzz3gCa8WJ8y
After September of this year, the Earth will be entering its 21st year without statistically significant warming trend, according to satellite-derived temperature data.

Since September 1994, University of Alabama in Huntsville’s satellite temperature data has shown no statistically significant global warming trend. For over 20 years there’s been no warming trend apparent in the satellite records and will soon be entering into year 21 with no warming trend apparent in satellite data — which examines the lowest few miles of the Earth’s atmosphere.

Satellite data from the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) group also shows a prolonged “hiatus” in global warming. After November of this year, RSS data will be in its 21st year without warming. Ironically, the so-called “hiatus” in warming started when then vice President Al Gore and environmental groups touted RSS satellite data as evidence a slight warming trend since 1979.

Source: RSS, http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperat ures/
Source: RSS, http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperat ures/

For years, climate scientists have been debating the “hiatus” in global warming, pushing dozens of explanations for why global temperatures had not risen significantly in the last decade or so in the surface record and for the last two decades in the satellite record. but the debate was cut short in June when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published a study claiming the “hiatus” never existed.


Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/17/satellites-earth -is-nearly-in-its-21st-year-without-global-warming /#ixzz3gCYUQ0hi

This was a Good Read and wanted to share it with you all

Taco :o)



Funny...I just ran the data myself.



I have some questions. Why use 21 years? Why only with the RSS data set? What do you think the satellite data measures? Why is the RSS better than the other data sets? (for comparison below)



Seems like nothing but a cherry pick from a disreputable source to me:

made a blog

Link
Quoting 140. IndividualThinker2:

New science and model results in Sun predicted to enter "Maunder minimum" event between 2030 and 2040, with solar flux reduced by about 3W/m^2.

http://phys.org/news/2015-07-ice-age.html


After it starts, apparently some time in the 2030 to 2040 decade, it is predicted to last for 30 years by the model.


I believe this would be catastrophic for the first several years before a new equilibrium is achieved with the SST.


I would be interested in hearing Dr. Masters' opinion on the theoretical impacts this would have on tropical cyclone and tornado formation.

I believe this should increase TC formation until the SST reaches new equilibrium, due to increased potential difference between SST and upper troposphere, and neutral ENSO years would be devastating to the U.S. under this scenario IMO.

Nevertheless, I want to hear the expert opinion..


Okay:
'No one is more surprised than Valentina Zharkova that her research prompted a worldwide media storm over the next ice age.

That's because her research never even mentioned an ice age.

Zharkova, a professor of mathematics at Northumbria University in England, argued at Royal Astronomical Society’s national meeting last week that solar activity will decline drastically in the 2030s. She posited that the sun's activity will be comparable to a period in the 17th century known as the Maunder minimum. The period coincided with the “Little Ice Age,” when a cold spell fell over Europe and parts of North America.

Media outlets got wind of her research and some concluded it suggested the 2030s would be the world’s next ice age because of the drop in solar activity.

“In the press release, we didn’t say anything about climate change,” she told USA TODAY. “My guess is when they heard about Maunder minimum, they used Wikipedia or something to find out more about it.”

So her academic theory, to her surprise, began trending on social media and went viral. Scientists, however, are pushing back against the ice age warnings.

“It’s complete garbage,” said Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “(The research is) not uninteresting, but it’s like people worrying about the cost of their latte when they can’t pay their mortgage payments."

Jason Funk, a senior climate scientist for the climate and energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the ice age premise flies in the face of a much more compelling body of scientific evidence: global warming.

“We’re living in a time when human activity has created so many emissions of heat trapping gases in the atmosphere that that effect is now swamping the effects of these cycles of sun energy hitting the earth,” he said. “Because of the human-driven effect on the climate we’ve seeing now, the importance of the sun dynamic is somewhat diminished relative to what people are doing to the climate system.” Link
Quoting 137. Hurricanes101:



It is our opinion that 93L will not develop and this season will be below average. Only difference is we are telling you why we feel those things will happen instead of throwing a temper tantrum.

Putting faith is one thing. Chasing things that have no chance of developing and putting others down that have a different opinion is another. Conditions are hostile ahead of 93L. The system in the Atlantic with the most potential is likely in the Eastern Gulf right now. 93L was impressive when it was designated, but it does not mean it has any chance to develop.

I do want to say something here and like someone else has said
November 30th is not here yet. I still say 14/7/3 for this year's
Atlantic Hurricane season. Also think we will have our 2nd storm
for the month of July by the end of the month.
Now am I right or will I be wrong, we will not know
until November 30th. So lets just sit back and see how this season
turns out....
j/s

Taco :o)
Think i have high blood pressure now.
Now there is a very very small and outside chance that if 93L isn't completely obliterated by the time it comes north of the caribbean it might have a small (and I do mean like 0.0001%) window to do something interesting.The wave that produced K did bu that was a whole different story.If it can survive all the way until the S.E u.s coast then maybe it'll have to be watched.
Quoting 132. tiggerhurricanes2001:


No the Atlantic isn't slow and boring. Last time i checked November 30 wasn't here yet.
Yes! the Atlantic is not slow and not boring yes.
Quoting 152. IndividualThinker2:

From the article:

How do you characterize these statements, which are a paraphrase followed by a quote from Popova, contradicting your claims?

The study of deuterium in the Antarctic showed that there were five global warmings and four Ice Ages during the past 400 thousand years. An increase in the volcanic activity comes after the Ice Age and it leads to greenhouse gas emissions. The magnetic field of the Sun grows, which means that the flux of cosmic rays decreases, increasing the number of clouds and leading to the warming again. Next comes the reverse process, when the magnetic field of the sun decreases and the intensity of cosmic ray rises, reducing the clouds and making the atmosphere cool again. This process comes with some delay.

Dr Helen Popova responds cautiously, while speaking about the human influence on climate.
"There is no strong evidence that global warming is caused by human activity. The study of deuterium in the Antarctic shows that there were five global warmings and four Ice Ages during the past 400 thousand years. People first appeared on the Earth about 60 thousand years ago. However, even if human activities influence the climate, we can say that the sun with the new minimum gives humanity more time or a second chance to reduce their industrial emissions and to prepare for the sun's return to normal activity, Popova summarized.


Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-07-ice-age.html#jCp



Look, I'm not claiming there will be an ice age, the author of the article made that sensationalist claim. I'm too level-headed for that.

I'm just asking what do you (actually preferrably Jeff Masters) think the 3W/m^2 flux change will cause in terms of hurricanes and tornadoes.

For the purpose of this question, I don't care two whits about Global Warming, nor which portion of it is caused by human beings. I'm just citing Popova to make the point that previous "mini" ice ages and warming events were sometimes driven by the cycles such as the Maunder minimum.


It wont be 3 w/m2. Your premise is a lie. Please continue though.
'strophysicists do not fully understand sunspot cycles and predictions of solar activity have come with mixed degrees of success. One such prediction of near-future activity has generated lots of headlines drawing analogy to the LIA and predicting a looming %u201Cmini ice age.%u201D This prediction comes in the form of reduced solar cycle amplitude and possibly irradiance, based on a statistical model of magnetic activity using past data. One can suspend judgment on the robustness of their method and ask questions about the climate impact, even if %u201CMaunder Minimum%u201D type solar levels are borne out in the near future. The typical solar cycle amplitude is on the order of ~1 W/m2 and the difference from Maunder Minimum to present is around 1.5 W/m2 or so. Figure 2 allows you to eyeball some of the secular trends. These changes in total solar irradiance can be converted into a radiative forcing by dividing by a spherical geometric term and multiplying by the absorbed component (~70%) of the incoming radiation so 1.5*0.7/4 ~ 0.26 W/m2. This radiative forcing is the %u201Ccommon currency%u201D by which we can compare solar trends to other active forcing mechanisms for a sense of the relative scale. Given the prediction of 40-80% reduction in solar cycle amplitude, the implied reduction in forcing is around 0.1 W/m2 or so, similar to just a few years of CO2 buildup. Thus, one should not worry about a %u201Clittle ice age version 2 given this prediction. It is, at best, a second-order fine tuning knob on the problem of contemporary climate change." Link

Any science tonight?

P.S. Popova didn't write the paper. Man, I don't even know where to start.

Quoting 150. washingtonian115:

Now there is a very very small and outside chance that if 93L isn't completely obliterated by the time it comes north of the caribbean it might have a small (and I do mean like 0.0001%) window to do something interesting.The wave that produced K did bu that was a whole different story.If it can survive all the way until the S.E u.s coast then maybe it'll have to be watched.
We need it alive here.
Quoting 137. Hurricanes101:



It is our opinion that 93L will not develop and this season will be below average. Only difference is we are telling you why we feel those things will happen instead of throwing a temper tantrum.

Putting faith is one thing. Chasing things that have no chance of developing and putting others down that have a different opinion is another. Conditions are hostile ahead of 93L. The system in the Atlantic with the most potential is likely in the Eastern Gulf right now. 93L was impressive when it was designated, but it does not mean it has any chance to develop.

Wow a 14 yr old throwing a temper tantrum!!! My honest opinion. This is very far from a temper tantrum. Look how u sound. I may have been out of hand, but since this is a public blog, i can speak about anything i believe in weather wise. Thanks.
Quoting 156. IndividualThinker2:

A 3W/m^2 decrease in flux would result in about a 0.7C decrease in global temperature by the time equilibrium is achieved, not counting any feedback mechanisms it triggers during that 30 year period.

While it won't make an "ice age" this could potentially bring back extreme winters, such as those which froze over the Mississippi down to NOLA, about a hundred years ago. Our modern civilization is not equipped to deal with that, as the river is used to transport goods on a massive scale which would be disrupted by this if it were to happen...even one year could be a multi-billion dollar disaster just from freezing over the river(s).


There is no 3w/m2 that is untrue. Math fail.

"he typical solar cycle amplitude is on the order of ~1 W/m2 and the difference from Maunder Minimum to present is around 1.5 W/m2 or so. Figure 2 allows you to eyeball some of the secular trends. These changes in total solar irradiance can be converted into a radiative forcing by dividing by a spherical geometric term and multiplying by the absorbed component (~70%) of the incoming radiation so 1.5*0.7/4 ~ 0.26 W/m2. This radiative forcing is the “common currency” by which we can compare solar trends to other active forcing mechanisms for a sense of the relative scale. Given the prediction of 40-80% reduction in solar cycle amplitude, the implied reduction in forcing is around 0.1 W/m2 or so, similar to just a few years of CO2 buildup."
I think that's 93L over PR.
To put it another way:



A grand solar minimum would look like the year 2000 temperature wise, roughly.
Quoting 158. Gearsts:

I think that's 93L over PR.




yep giveing PR a lot of snow
Quoting 153. Naga5000:



It wont be 3 w/m2. Your premise is a lie. Please continue though.
'strophysicists do not fully understand sunspot cycles and predictions of solar activity have come with mixed degrees of success. One such prediction of near-future activity has generated lots of headlines drawing analogy to the LIA and predicting a looming %u201Cmini ice age.%u201D This prediction comes in the form of reduced solar cycle amplitude and possibly irradiance, based on a statistical model of magnetic activity using past data. One can suspend judgment on the robustness of their method and ask questions about the climate impact, even if %u201CMaunder Minimum%u201D type solar levels are borne out in the near future. The typical solar cycle amplitude is on the order of ~1 W/m2 and the difference from Maunder Minimum to present is around 1.5 W/m2 or so. Figure 2 allows you to eyeball some of the secular trends. These changes in total solar irradiance can be converted into a radiative forcing by dividing by a spherical geometric term and multiplying by the absorbed component (~70%) of the incoming radiation so 1.5*0.7/4 ~ 0.26 W/m2. This radiative forcing is the %u201Ccommon currency%u201D by which we can compare solar trends to other active forcing mechanisms for a sense of the relative scale. Given the prediction of 40-80% reduction in solar cycle amplitude, the implied reduction in forcing is around 0.1 W/m2 or so, similar to just a few years of CO2 buildup. Thus, one should not worry about a %u201Clittle ice age version 2 given this prediction. It is, at best, a second-order fine tuning knob on the problem of contemporary climate change." Link

Any science tonight?

P.S. Popova didn't write the paper. Man, I don't even know where to start.





In fairness, I have posted a link to the article you cited as a fair consideration of potential rebuttal of the physorg article claim.

I'll leave it to the readers to decide what to believe, seeing as how the prediction is still at least 15 to 25 years away from happening anyway.
Yikes! A couple bloggers want to believe that 93L will survive the Caribbean. I'd give about a 0% chance. It ain't going to happen.
Quoting 162. IndividualThinker2:




In fairness, I have posted a link to the article you cited as a fair consideration of potential rebuttal of the physorg article claim.

I'll leave it to the readers to decide what to believe, seeing as how the prediction is still at least 15 to 25 years away from happening anyway.


No, science isn't up to individual interpretation. The scientist that wrote the paper and did the study said in very clear language,"Zharkova, a professor of mathematics at Northumbria University in England, argued at Royal Astronomical Society%u2019s national meeting last week that solar activity will decline drastically in the 2030s. She posited that the sun's activity will be comparable to a period in the 17th century known as the Maunder minimum. The period coincided with the %u201CLittle Ice Age,%u201D when a cold spell fell over Europe and parts of North America.

Media outlets got wind of her research and some concluded it suggested the 2030s would be the world%u2019s next ice age because of the drop in solar activity.

%u201CIn the press release, we didn%u2019t say anything about climate change,%u201D she told USA TODAY. %u201CMy guess is when they heard about Maunder minimum, they used Wikipedia or something to find out more about it.%u201D"

You are perpetuating a lie, in a very dishonest fashion.
there will not be a hurricane season this year for the Caribbean sea and MDR its closed
Quoting 163. Bucsboltsfan:

Yikes! A couple bloggers want to believe that 93L will survive the Caribbean. I'd give about a 0% chance. It ain't going to happen.

Well I will not go that far in saying it ain't going to happen
because the last storm we had went front like 10% to
100% in 12 to 14 hours.....
So I will never say that again. j/s

Taco :o)
Quoting 165. Tazmanian:

there will not be a hurricane season this year for the Caribbean sea and MDR its closed


Western Caribbean could get some storms that form there, along with the Gulf and off the US East Coast

I highly doubt we get a storm developing in the MDR or the rest of the Caribbean
So this tragic farce of straw man logic leads many to now completely disregard what's happening (look at this blog post by Bob Henson) and prepare for the eventuality of the next ice age. Leaving many with the opportunity to grasp onto this as the reason to discount AGW. Can see it now, the Right will soon have to come full circle on AGW, and they slowly are. Now they can say, no worries, this minimum will offset AGW completely. We're headed for the next ice age. We've just got to get past these next fifteen years and then all will be well. This idea is being spread like wildfire through conservative blogs. But it's being trumped up with the argument AGW is not happening, the Earth goes through cycles, and an ice age is very likely coming. Just mind boggling that millions upon millions upon millions believe this hook line and sinker world wide. Sad.
Quoting 166. taco2me61:


Well I will not go that far in saying it ain't going to happen
because the last storm we had went front like 10% to
100% in 12 to 14 hours.....
So I will never say that again. j/s

Taco :o)


There's an outside chance but IMO it is not in the Caribbean.
Quoting 91. TimSoCal:

So this is a scary thing that's happening today:

Link

dang...
Link
inland
Quoting 168. DeepSeaRising:

So this tragic farce of straw man logic leads many to now completely disregard what's happening (look at this blog post by Bob Henson) and prepare for the eventuality of the next ice age. Leaving many with the opportunity to grasp onto this as the reason to discount AGW. Can see it now, the Right will soon have to come full circle on AGW, and they slowly are. Now they can say, no worries, this minimum will offset AGW completely. We're headed for the next ice age. We've just got to get past these next fifteen years and then all will be well. This idea is being spread like wildfire through conservative blogs. But it's being trumped up with the argument AGW is not happening, the Earth goes through cycles, and an ice age is very likely coming. Just mind boggling that millions upon millions upon millions believe this hook line and sinker world wide. Sad.


200 years of science, but one study, that does even say what they are claiming, and bam!, full trust.

Quoting 167. Hurricanes101:



Western Caribbean could get some storms that form there, along with the Gulf and off the US East Coast

I highly doubt we get a storm developing in the MDR or the rest of the Caribbean

Well u know what, I believe we have a decent chance of seeing MDR activity this season. I'll go with 3 tropical cyclones in the MDR this season. JMO. Getting banned for dumb reasons lol idc. Anyways, I just think they will all weaken upon reaching the Caribbean. Bertha looked worst than this in its development stages. NHC will probably keep the percentages at 10/10 until the weekend passes, or unless organization occurs.
Quoting 167. Hurricanes101:



Western Caribbean could get some storms that form there, along with the Gulf and off the US East Coast

I highly doubt we get a storm developing in the MDR or the rest of the Caribbean



that part is ture
Quoting 173. IndividualThinker2:



3W/m^2 was not my number, remember that.

The author of the physorg article cited someone named "Lean" from a 1997 paper (title not given).

Unfortunately that's the end of the source for me, unless Google finds something.


Abstract. Because of the dependence of the Sun%u2019s irradiance on solar activity, reductions from contemporary levels are expected during the seventeenth century Maunder Minimum. New reconstructions of spectral irradiance are developed since 1600 with absolute scales traceable to spacebased observations. The long-term variations track the envelope of group sunspot numbers and have amplitudes consistent with the range of Ca II brightness in Sun-like stars. Estimated increases since 1675 are 0.7%, 0.2 % and 0.07 % in broad ultraviolet, visible/near infrared and infrared spectral bands, with a total irradiance increase of 0.2%.

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi= 10.1.1.393.1008

from Abstract of paper by Judith Lean (found this using Google)



You can get the PDF of the entire scientific paper, as it is not behind a pay wall.

0.2% of 1365W is 2.73W.

In the paper, she calculates with less straightforward math, a difference of the original Maunder Minimum and present day as 2.8W/m^2, which is slightly more than the simplified calculation.

Explaination from the paper:

The amplitude of the total irradiance increase since the
Maunder Minimum derived from the spectral irradiance reconstructions
(and independently from modeling direct observations)
is at the low end of previous estimates, which
range from 0.2% to 0.5%, but exceeds the variability due to
the amplitude evolution of the 11-year cycle alone (0.05%).
The total irradiance increase of 2.8 Wm%u22122 differs slightly
from a previous estimate of 3.3 Wm%u22122 (0.24%) [Lean et al.,
1995] because of revision of the relationship between solar
and stellar Ca II fluxes using a larger database of lunar S
observations. Subsequent lunar data may cause further revision
of the adopted solar-stellar relationship, and alter the
adopted long-term Pprox
F amplitudes.


PDF link for citation: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jses sionid=707B8C6295DCDFBCEF8C5BF100F4E7BF?doi=10.1.1 .393.1008&rep=rep1&type=pdf


It looks like the physorg author may have taken the average of 2.8 and 3.3 and just ran with it, nevertheless "3W/m^2" is in fact reasonably close to the figures arrived during both studies and their subsequent papers. I would have preferred they use the actual figure 2.8W/m^2 to 3.3W/m^2 to show the uncertainty or conflicting results from the different papers, both by the same author, but for whatever reason they just used the round number. While not exactly professional, "3" is not that big of a deal compared to "2.8".

I'll have to study the paper you linked more closely, because I want to understand the math they used to reduce the figure of "2.5W/m^2" to 0.26W/m^2, as this result does not appear to mirror the normal behavior of typical solar irradiance upon the Earth.




Cute, but we aren't discussing the Lean paper. We are discussing Zharkova's curve fitting exercise. To address your last line first, you get from 1.5w/m2 of solar irradiance to .26w/m2 of radiative forcing which is used to measure direct forcing on the Earth. This is basic stuff.

Now on to what Zharkova actually says...

"n the current study, to predict the solar activity, we explore
the PCs derived from the SBMF measured with the WSO in
cycles 21%u201323 by using the most advanced Eureqa approach
developed on Hamiltonian principles (Schmidt & Lipson 2009).
We show that the classic proxy for solar activity, averaged
sunspot numbers, is strongly modulated by variations in the
SBMF PCs, allowing us to use the SBMF PCs as new proxies
for the overall solar activity.
Furthermore, by using the Eureqa technique based on a
symbolic regression, we managed to uncover the underlying
mathematical laws governing the fundamental processes of
magnetic wave generation in the Sun%u2019s background magnetic
field. These invariants are used to extract the key parameters of
the PCs of SBMF waves, which, in turn, are used to predict the
overall level of solar activity for solar cycles 24%u201326.
We can conclude with a sufficient degree of confidence
that the solar activity in cycles 24%u201326 will be systematically
decreasing because of the increasing phase shift between the
two magnetic waves of the poloidal field leading to their full
separation into opposite hemispheres in cycles 25 and 26. This
separation is expected to result in the lack of their subsequent
interaction in any of the hemispheres, possibly leading to a lack
of noticeable sunspot activity on the solar surface lasting for a
decade or two, similar to those recorded in the medieval period.
Using the modulus summary curves derived from the principal
components of SBMF, we predict a noticeable decrease
of the average sunspot numbers in cycle 25 to %u224880% of that in
cycle 24 and a decrease in cycle 26 to %u224840%
which are linked
to a reduction of the amplitudes and an increase of the phase
between the PCs of SBMF separating these waves into the opposite
hemispheres"

Zharkova uses the last 3 sunspot cycles to predict the next cycles uses a statistical model. Essentially a curve fitting exercise. More so, the actual prediction is not in solar irradiance, but in sunspot number.

Again, this is really crazy that this needs to be explained, does no one know how to read a paper anymore?
Quoting 175. IndividualThinker2:

Just a common-sense observation...

0.26W/m^2 difference wouldn't freeze over the Thames or the Mississippi, we had those conditions in my lifetime, when I was a child, and it didn't even freeze over the local creek, nevermind the Mississippi or Thames...so the real value has to be much larger than that.


Not so much, what logic is that? The total radiative forcing during the LIA was not skewed by CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and was aided by volcanic eruptions. Again, basic stuff. Come on now, this is absurd.
since when did this be come a 3W/m^2 or what ever blog ?
Quoting 178. Tazmanian:

since when did this be come a 3W/m^2 or what ever blog ?


Since people fail at reading.
Quoting 144. stormpetrol:



850mb vort more consolidated


Yes it is

Quoting 176. Naga5000:





Cute, but we aren't discussing the Lean paper. We are discussing Zharkova's curve fitting exercise. To address your last line first, you get from 1.5w/m2 of solar irradiance to .26w/m2 of radiative forcing which is used to measure direct forcing on the Earth. This is basic stuff.

Now on to what Zharkova actually says...

"n the current study, to predict the solar activity, we explore
the PCs derived from the SBMF measured with the WSO in
cycles 21%u201323 by using the most advanced Eureqa approach
developed on Hamiltonian principles (Schmidt & Lipson 2009).
We show that the classic proxy for solar activity, averaged
sunspot numbers, is strongly modulated by variations in the
SBMF PCs, allowing us to use the SBMF PCs as new proxies
for the overall solar activity.
Furthermore, by using the Eureqa technique based on a
symbolic regression, we managed to uncover the underlying
mathematical laws governing the fundamental processes of
magnetic wave generation in the Sun%u2019s background magnetic
field. These invariants are used to extract the key parameters of
the PCs of SBMF waves, which, in turn, are used to predict the
overall level of solar activity for solar cycles 24%u201326.
We can conclude with a sufficient degree of confidence
that the solar activity in cycles 24%u201326 will be systematically
decreasing because of the increasing phase shift between the
two magnetic waves of the poloidal field leading to their full
separation into opposite hemispheres in cycles 25 and 26. This
separation is expected to result in the lack of their subsequent
interaction in any of the hemispheres, possibly leading to a lack
of noticeable sunspot activity on the solar surface lasting for a
decade or two, similar to those recorded in the medieval period.
Using the modulus summary curves derived from the principal
components of SBMF, we predict a noticeable decrease
of the average sunspot numbers in cycle 25 to %u224880% of that in
cycle 24 and a decrease in cycle 26 to %u224840%
which are linked
to a reduction of the amplitudes and an increase of the phase
between the PCs of SBMF separating these waves into the opposite
hemispheres"

Zharkova uses the last 3 sunspot cycles to predict the next cycles uses a statistical model. Essentially a curve fitting exercise. More so, the actual prediction is not in solar irradiance, but in sunspot number.

Again, this is really crazy that this needs to be explained, does no one know how to read a paper anymore?


The article on Physorg draws from both papers the conclusion that the difference should be about 3W.

I'm not the one who wrote the article, I just cited it.

I also found, and cited, the updated version of the Lean paper, which apparently has as many as 3 revisions, which while not saying exactly the same thing as the physorg article, it does in fact give a value very close to the same value.

The issue you overlooked is the physorg article draws on two studies of the phenomena, one being a calculation of the historical flux change in the previous minimum, and the other being a prediction of the future solar minimum's timing and degree.
182. OCF
Somewhere up near the top, people were asking Pedley about "drought relief." To be honest, I don't even think of it as that. The ordinary expectation about rain in the summer in the Southern California coastal plain is that it doesn't rain. A month or three with zero measurable precipitation would hardly be worth a comment. Now, there are monsoon flow thunderstorms that find triggers in the high mountains that ring the coastal plain - you can often see them building. But their general rule is that they move away, drifting northeastward through the Eastern California deserts.

Near the coast, there is seldom any mechanism for producing rain. The dew point at the surface has been within a couple of degrees of 60° for weeks now; the atmosphere usually quite stable. We're still getting some stratus deck on some mornings.

The fact that Dolores is going to directly or indirectly cause so much moisture to stream over us that it just might (but then again might not) have measurable rain near the coast Saturday or Sunday - now that's unusual, and we'll pay attention. But we're paying attention precisely because it's unusual. And with all the EPac hurricanes yet to come this year - there should be plenty - we'll be having this conversation several more times. But full-on drought relief is going to have to wait until the extratropical lows can once again reach this far south, and that won't be until November or so.
How's the Cape Verde wave doing?
Quoting 183. Dakster:

How's the Cape Verde wave doing?


It's doing well under the circumstances
Quoting 183. Dakster:

How's the Cape Verde wave doing?


Floundered bad, but the recovery is happening. Should continue to do so for the next 24-36 hours. Chances will go up. Should be near depression by this time tomorrow, then will die a quick death. But will not be erased. Once this gets closer to the US, who knows. Think this will traverse right over the Dominican and then strengthen NE of the Bahamas. May well go further NE than I'm saying and get absorbed by the next front coming through. Remember, I'm an expert in giving my opinion. And if percentages are any tell, an expert in being generally wrong.
Quoting 184. wunderkidcayman:



It's doing well under the circumstances

Do u see that big blowup of convection in the rainbow imagery??? There seems to be a center consolidating near there.
Quoting 183. Dakster:

How's the Cape Verde wave doing?



93L is really not doing well dont list in too the wishcasters




nothing too see here
now the gulf need too be closey watch we could get some in there with the low shear


Quoting 185. DeepSeaRising:



Floundered bad, but the recovery is happening. Should continue to do so for the next 24-36 hours. Chances will go up. Should be near depression by this time tomorrow, then will die a quick death. But will not be erased. Once this gets closer to the US, who knows. Think this will traverse right over the Dominican and then strengthen NE of the Bahamas. May well go further NE than I'm saying and get absorbed by the next front coming through. Remember, I'm an expert in giving my opinion. And if percentages are any tell, an expert in being generally wrong.

Usually when u go to sleep, something happens overnight, like it did with Claudette Tuesday. Woke up that morning, and the percentages jumped from 10 percent to 100 within 12 hours
93L Ball flaring up. Still has a snowballs chance in H###.
Quoting 186. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Do u see that big blowup of convection in the rainbow imagery??? There seems to be a center consolidating near there.


Absolutely. Should be a much improved system tomorrow. Taz, is likely right. Usually is. But there is a consolidation happening with a short window for improving conditions. One never does know.
Quoting 188. Tazmanian:

now the gulf need too be closey watch we could get some in there with the low shear




Totally agree if something happens with 93L we will have our 4 named storms before August 30th. All we'll need is one hurricane. That blob is interesting in the GOM. There is a low centered near Florida.
Quoting 188. Tazmanian:

now the gulf need too be closey watch we could get some in there with the low shear





All convection too close to landfall. Could move West before mid and upper level winds bring whatever is developing back East. Could have a Gro Blob develop though. Taz, your no downcaster. You stick to the facts. I've come to respect you very much.
Quoting 188. Tazmanian:

now the gulf need too be closey watch we could get some in there with the low shear





and there is a surface trof there too

more rain for us in West Central Florida that is supposed to stick around for awhile
I'm sorry for my actions everyone. I overacted. My apologies go out to Taz,Hurricanes 101,Gearsts. U know how u r when it comes to weather when you're young. I'm only 14.
Quoting 195. tiggerhurricanes2001:

I'm sorry for my actions everyone. I overacted. My apologies go out to Taz,Hurricanes 101,Gearsts. U know how u r when it comes to weather when you're young. I'm only 14.
Quoting 195. tiggerhurricanes2001:

I'm sorry for my actions everyone. I overacted. My apologies go out to Taz,Hurricanes 101,Gearsts. U know how u r when it comes to weather when you're young. I'm only 14.


You demonstrate grace. Forgiveness is divine. Own it. You have done so.
Quoting 191. DeepSeaRising:



Absolutely. Should be a much improved system tomorrow. Taz, is likely right. Usually is. But there is a consolidation happening with a short window for improving conditions. One never does know.

It has only about 48 hours to develop.
I still would pick E. Decapitation, as my vote, but 0%, or 0001% is too low.
You can never say never, and at least we can say with certainty that this "L" hasn't fallen apart yet, in fact it's looking ok.....plus we have diurnal max coming. 10% as per the NHC is good to go.
Quoting 198. CosmicEvents:

I still would pick E. Decapitation, as my vote, but 0%, or 0001% is too low.
You can never say never, and at least we can say with certainty that this "L" hasn't fallen apart yet, in fact it's looking ok.....plus we have diurnal max coming. 10% as per the NHC is good to go.


Well said. This will go to orange. 30/40 is likely by eleven this time tomorrow in the AM. The science is behind the nature, and always will be. Book explains that quite well. Starts with a B. The Bumbling Republicans is not the book.
What's a diurnal max??? Isn't it some type of increased convective period.
Quoting 200. tiggerhurricanes2001:

What's a diurnal max??? Isn't it some type of increased convective period.


Point in the day when a developing system has the best chance to increase in intensity.
I am going with Taz on this one...

Thanks for the updates.
How's the Weather up there Dakster?
Quoting 203. PedleyCA:

How's the Weather up there Dakster?


Well, people that are visiting don't like it because it is overcast and light rain. I like it...

Doesn't really hit 70F... And the low is around 50F.

Yours?
Quoting 204. HoumaJMH:

"We also have some toasty news on the national and global front. With our planet showing more and more symptoms of running a fever, the annual State of the Climate reports make for compelling lab results that confirm the diagnosis." So I guess the Remote Sensing Systems report is wrong? It's a discredit to science how the moderators of this site, and SOME members, so desperately defend the idea of anthropogenic global warming. When reputable scientists conclude that the theory is flawed and point out that the data has been manipulated, the AGW mafia comes out and shuns and ridicules the individual. If your beloved theories are real and valid, let the evidence support it. Let it be challenged in a scholarly way. Let it stand up to the scrutiny on its own merits. But I guess that's where we have a real problem. The real evidence supports the contrary. It first has to be manipulated to show a consistent warming trend. And that's why so many people are reluctant to believe it. But, instead of trying to offer MORE concrete evidence, the AGW mafia goes on the attack and resorts to name calling and more data manipulation. At this point, it's no longer science. It resembles fraud and extortion more than science.


Quote number one. Hope he's being paid well for perpetrating nothing but a lie. The evidence is overwhelming, the science is sound and supported by 97 percent of climate scientists. Many, most with big money interests are behind trying to hoodwink the sheep masses. Maybe you've read the Good Book, evil wages, but is overcome by good and the truth.
REALLY? TRIPLE FLAG!!!!!!!

Quoting 204. HoumaJMH:

"We also have some toasty news on the national and global front. With our planet showing more and more symptoms of running a fever, the annual State of the Climate reports make for compelling lab results that confirm the diagnosis." So I guess the Remote Sensing Systems report is wrong? It's a discredit to science how the moderators of this site, and SOME members, so desperately defend the idea of anthropogenic global warming. When reputable scientists conclude that the theory is flawed and point out that the data has been manipulated, the AGW mafia comes out and shuns and ridicules the individual. If your beloved theories are real and valid, let the evidence support it. Let it be challenged in a scholarly way. Let it stand up to the scrutiny on its own merits. But I guess that's where we have a real problem. The real evidence supports the contrary. It first has to be manipulated to show a consistent warming trend. And that's why so many people are reluctant to believe it. But, instead of trying to offer MORE concrete evidence, the AGW mafia goes on the attack and resorts to name calling and more data manipulation. At this point, it's no longer science. It resembles fraud and extortion more than science.
Quoting 205. Dakster:



Well, people that are visiting don't like it because it is overcast and light rain. I like it...

Doesn't really hit 70F... And the low is around 50F.

Yours?


Today was 64.4F and 93.1F.... waiting for the monsoon moisture from Dolores to get here. May not rain
but it will be humid by our standards.
Quoting 181. IndividualThinker2:



The article on Physorg draws from both papers the conclusion that the difference should be about 3W.

I'm not the one who wrote the article, I just cited it.

I also found, and cited, the updated version of the Lean paper, which apparently has as many as 3 revisions, which while not saying exactly the same thing as the physorg article, it does in fact give a value very close to the same value.

The issue you overlooked is the physorg article draws on two studies of the phenomena, one being a calculation of the historical flux change in the previous minimum, and the other being a prediction of the future solar minimum's timing and degree.


IndividualThinker2 please give us and Naga5000 a rest. The article you are championing is very misleading and is more anti-science promoted by fossil fuel interests and their think tank propaganda machines. Which begs the question, why are you so persistent in propagating such anti-science nonsense?

Climate scientists have shown that a Maunder Minimum will have minuscule affect on global temperatures - around -0.1C. see: skepticalscience.com/What-would-happen-if-the-sun -fell-to-Maunder-Minimum-levels

Please stop clogging up our blog with FUD and wasting everyone's time - there are far more interesting things for us to explore.
sat jul 18 forecasted max surface temps 2100 utc


Quoting 206. DeepSeaRising:



Quote number one. Hope he's being paid well for perpetrating nothing but a lie. The evidence is overwhelming, the science is sound and supported by 97 percent of climate scientists. Many, most with big money interests are behind trying to hoodwink the sheep masses. Maybe you've read the Good Book, evil wages, but is overcome by good and the truth.

Oh well 93L down to 0 percent per NHC
Quoting 209. VibrantPlanet:



IndividualThinker2 please give us and Naga5000 a rest. The article you are championing is very misleading and is more anti-science promoted by fossil fuel interests and their think tank propaganda machines. Which begs the question, why are you so persistent in propagating such anti-science nonsense?

Climate scientists have shown that a Maunder Minimum will have minuscule affect on global temperatures - around -0.1C. see: skepticalscience.com/What-would-happen-if-the-sun -fell-to-Maunder-Minimum-levels

Please stop clogging up our blog with FUD and wasting everyone's time - there are far more interesting things for us to explore.


Amen
Quoting 209. VibrantPlanet:



IndividualThinker2 please give us and Naga5000 a rest. The article you are championing is very misleading and is more anti-science promoted by fossil fuel interests and their think tank propaganda machines. Which begs the question, why are you so persistent in propagating such anti-science nonsense? ...

Dollars will get you donuts IndividualThinker2 is a paid troll. Wouldn't be the first (or only) one, either.
Quoting 213. EstherD:


Dollars will get you donuts IndividualThinker2 is a paid troll. Wouldn't be the first (or only) one, either.


An obvious truth I hope those here don't miss. He's earning his wages, thirty pieces of silver. Thank God for the likes of Naga. What a brilliant honest truth seeking scientist. The truth will surly set all free. Wish more would seek it.
Quoting 140. IndividualThinker2:

New science and model results in Sun predicted to enter "Maunder minimum" event between 2030 and 2040, with solar flux reduced by about 3W/m^2 ...


This crap again? Your a little late to the party pal. This has already been debunked, and debunked, and debunked again. There is no 3W/m^2 surface insolation reduction. It didn't happen during the Maunder Minimum, and it certainly wouldn't happen now.

Regardless of your source, your interpretation is incorrect. Any basic undergrad physics text covers this.
So if I understand the Zharkova et.al. paper correctly, they modeled three past solar cycles, then predicted the following cycle to 97% accuracy.

But the fact that their model can only account for 40% of the variance in the dataset means there is 60% of said variance still unaccounted for in their model. So there's more about the solar cycle generator that their model can NOT explain than it can explain. Not very confidence-inspiring, IMHO.

Then, they were so pleased with themselves that they went on to predict several cycles into the future.

And she's surprised that the media went crazy with it?!

Had I been a reviewer, I would have said something along the lines of: "Great work. NOW, run your model BACKWARDS three or four cycles and compare your model's results with those observations. And if it STILL provides a reasonably good fit to those historical data, THEN you can come and tell us all about what the future may bring."
Quoting 41. Patrap:




Climate Change Is Setting the World on Fire

Maddie Stone


What happens when you mix record-smashing heat and exceptional drought? Fire! Lots of fire! But climate change isn’t just bringing more fires to our doorstep, although it’s accomplishing that quite handily. It’s making fire seasons longer.

That’s according to a study published this week in Nature Communications, which shows that fire weather seasons have, on average, grown 18.7 percent longer across the Earth’s surface since 1979. What’s more, the global burnable area affected by fire seasons has doubled, meaning areas that didn’t used to be fire prone are starting to look rather combustible. The reason? Hotter, drier conditions across vast swaths of our planet’s vegetated surface.

Literally, climate change is setting the world on fire.

Too Many Hot Days

Wildfires play a key role in fire-adapted ecosystems, creating open patches in forests and grasslands that promote biodiversity. Certain fire-adapted plants require a burn in order for their seeds to germinate. But the recent surge in extremely destructive fires, such as those we’ve seen raging across Alaskan and Canadian boreal forests this summer, is pushing many ecosystems beyond their disaster tolerance. Needless to say, it’s also causing substantial property damage and placing additional human lives in danger.

In their study, the researchers collected fire weather data—things like maximum annual temperature, number of rain-free days, and maximum windspeed—in three global meteorological datasets, from 1979 to 2013. They used the data to calculate several different fire danger indices and to estimate global fire weather season lengths.

Globally, fire season length has increased nearly 20 percent since 1979, and the global vegetated area affected by longer fire seasons has doubled from 10 to 20 percent. Both of these metrics (shown in panels a and b below) are strongly correlated with a global increase in the number of rain-free days (c):

Climate Change Is Setting the World on Fire




Years ago I used to go see my friend Jaycee Bedford and the delightful a capella trio she was part of, Artisan. Years before it was a news item they recorded a song about how the world ends. Not with a bang but a bonfire.
Quoting 91. TimSoCal:

So this is a scary thing that's happening today:

Link


Wow.

If I drive that route next month over the pass, I'm wearing the Sacred Brown Trousers for sure.
traps fear mongering us with the world on fire stuff. everything is so wet here locally you could not even start a camp fire. e cen fl.
Quoting 211. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Oh well 93L down to 0 percent per NHC


Yes but I suspect that it may go back up

Actually looking at new charts

Shear is falling to the W of 93L
And the band of high shear in the Caribbean is moving out N and NE as the upper level low N-NE of PR is moving N-NNE now strongest of the shear band now just off the NE Carib islands (60kts) also another upper anticyclone further W of 93L near the SE Caribbean is moving WNW
towards Trinidad

Now if this continues 93L should be fine and should have the upper level conditions to grow as it moves towards the E Caribbean

Anyway we have to wait and see what happens over the next 24-48 hrs
I'd put 93Ls centre near 11.0N 42.3W moving W
Convection not doing too good at the moment
I think we may see convection start growing from 44W eventually redeveloping the convection over the whole area
Quoting 220. wunderkidcayman:



Yes but I suspect that it may go back up

Actually looking at new charts

Shear is falling to the W of 93L
And the band of high shear in the Caribbean is moving out N and NE as the upper level low N-NE of PR is moving N-NNE now strongest of the shear band now just off the NE Carib islands (60kts) also another upper anticyclone further W of 93L near the SE Caribbean is moving WNW
towards Trinidad

Now if this continues 93L should be fine and should have the upper level conditions to grow as it moves towards the E Caribbean

Anyway we have to wait and see what happens over the next 24-48 hrs


Did you read what the NHC said at 2:00am? "0% chance of developing as conditions become more unfavorable." Outside of hoping, please show you maps that shows the conditions "should be fine" and allows it to develop?
406 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...
...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE OVER GULF, BISCAYNE BAY AND ATLANTIC WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

WATERSPOUTS: WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
BISCAYNE BAY AND GULF WATERS THIS MORNING.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

FLOODING: SOME LOCALES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR PENINSULA,
COULD RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED LOCALES.

TEMPERATURES: HEAT INDICES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
PENINSULA WILL REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES, WITH ISOLATED AREAS
REACHING NEAR 105 DEGREES POSSIBLE.

interesting that 93l is even there. if i picked 4-6 storms i'd be alittle worried I under estimated. already got three.
Quoting 224. islander101010:

interesting that 93l is even there. if i picked 4-6 storms i'd be alittle worried I under estimated. already got three.


Go back and look at the 1997 season. There were 5 storms at the end of July and only 3 developed during the peak. El Niño is similar to that year. And we were at the beginning of the hyperactive period that started in 1995 and may have ended. Conditions just don't favor many storms, especially in the MDR and Caribbean.
Quoting 210. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

sat jul 18 forecasted max surface temps 2100 utc




I find it really interesting that there seems to be almost no interest in this kind of warming in the mainstream media here in Europe as far as I can determine.

Quoting 222. Bucsboltsfan:



Did you read what the NHC said at 2:00am? "0% chance of developing as conditions become more unfavorable." Outside of hoping, please show you maps that shows the conditions "should be fine" and allows it to develop?


Do you know how many time NHC had shown 0% and said conditions to become more unfavourable and it ends up more favourable and % goes up its a good number

I will be quite happy to get all of the charts and show you

As soon as I have had my breakfast and good cup of coffee
This site is a really good example of the kind of world temp and pressure maps which are available.

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/index_ds.p hp

Link

At the moment the temps in the Mediterranean are well above normal and we here in Spain are having the second highest temps in the form of an extended heat wave in the last 40 years. This may continue for a long time yet according the our weather service.



The areas of high pressure over Greenland and the Gulf of Alaska must be playing havoc with the norms for the Northern Hemisphere. Surface ice and permafrost must also be melting at an alarming rate.
Quoting 207. swflurker:

REALLY? TRIPLE FLAG!!!!!!!



Why triple flag? I like reading both sides of the debate.
Hey also please note new AOI E of 93L just SW of CV Islands associated with a tropical wave and tropical low it is much better organised and defined than 93L NHC may mention it as well
Bye.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with the tropical wave midway between the
coast of Africa and the Windward Islands has diminished.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
Models are showing a continued train of E-Pac systems developing in the coming two weeks. What a season already for that basin. Would not be at all surprised if we see three additional storms out there before August 1. 99E is next up.

Quoting 233. Tropicsweatherpr:

Bye.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with the tropical wave midway between the
coast of Africa and the Windward Islands has diminished.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

Brief and to the point lol. 93L isnt anything to worry about right now, and it likely never will be. Too hostile out there.
we say goodbye to invest 93L FOR NOW
Very warm in the Medditerrainian now with a lot more heat to come over the next few weeks.

I have been looking for any reports about how all this heat is affecting the European Alps here but have not been able to discover anything recent!

Meanwhile there has been a massive fire just outside Athens, all they need with other problems and all kinds of cash strapped authorities.



The above photo link is from, it might not work, I got it from the link below :-

Link

An article about the water shortages in Sao Paulo.


NEW INVEST SOON
Report: Ocean surface temperatures warmest on record

More than 400 scientists wrote the peer-reviewed 292-page study, the 25th year that the climate checkup was conducted. Its highlights include:

— Four different measuring systems concluded that 2014 was hottest year on record on Earth's surface. However, because of margins of error, there's a chance it could only be second hottest.

— Many places, such as Europe, not only had record heat on average, but record patches of extreme heat.

— There were 91 tropical cyclones worldwide in 2014, slightly more than the 30-year average of 82.

— Permafrost in Alaska measuring sites thawed, as temperatures at 65 feet underground set record highs for the second year in a row.

— Glaciers worldwide continued to shrink, but not at a record pace.

— Arctic sea ice, while not at a record setting low last year, is still declining over the long-term.

— However, Antarctic sea ice hit record high levels for the third straight year; different factors aside from temperature have been a cause, said NOAA climate scientist Jessica Blunden.

Jeff Severinghaus of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, who wasn't part of the report, said if this is Earth's annual checkup, "the doctor is saying 'you are gravely ill.'"


Link
Quoting 242. ColoradoBob1:

Report: Ocean surface temperatures warmest on record

More than 400 scientists wrote the peer-reviewed 292-page study, the 25th year that the climate checkup was conducted. Its highlights include:

— Four different measuring systems concluded that 2014 was hottest year on record on Earth's surface. However, because of margins of error, there's a chance it could only be second hottest.

— Many places, such as Europe, not only had record heat on average, but record patches of extreme heat.

— There were 91 tropical cyclones worldwide in 2014, slightly more than the 30-year average of 82.

— Permafrost in Alaska measuring sites thawed, as temperatures at 65 feet underground set record highs for the second year in a row.

— Glaciers worldwide continued to shrink, but not at a record pace.

— Arctic sea ice, while not at a record setting low last year, is still declining over the long-term.

— However, Antarctic sea ice hit record high levels for the third straight year; different factors aside from temperature have been a cause, said NOAA climate scientist Jessica Blunden.

Jeff Severinghaus of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, who wasn't part of the report, said if this is Earth's annual checkup, "the doctor is saying 'you are gravely ill.'"


Link

Slight glimmer of hope?
maybe some rain for new haven,conn soon
If Monsoons Were Not Extreme Enough Weather for You, You’re In for a Treat

Facing more intense seasonal rains as a result of global warming, India’s and Pakistan’s poorly planned infrastructure could lead to worsening floods.

Link
How Climate Change Is Making Wildfires Worse

The study, published in the journal Nature Communications, finds that fire season has gotten longer for more than quarter of the Earth’s vegetated surface from 1979 to 2013. Overall, across the globe, fire weather season increased by nearly 19%. The trend occurred on all continents where wildfires occur except Australia.

Link
From The Globe and Mail:

Come hell or high water: The disaster scenario that is South Florida

[...]

Scientists are starting to suggest that, in the long run, much of South Florida cannot be saved and that policymakers should begin planning for how to best deal with a massive northward exodus in the coming decades, as some of the most iconic real estate on the continent begins to succumb to the sea.

“Sooner or later, this city, as you see it right now, won’t be like this,” says Henry Briceño, a water-quality researcher at Florida International University. “Miami and the whole of South Florida is not going to be like this any more. So we have to develop a way to plan and supply services in a changing scenario, and that’s not easy. And then, sooner or later, we’ll have to move. Most of the population will have to move.”

Imagine a prohibition on fossil fuels, effective tomorrow. Every gas-guzzler off the road; every coal plant shuttered; every source of greenhouse-gas emissions brought under control.

Even then, by some estimates, the atmosphere would experience residual warming for another 30 years. That, in turn, would continue to heat the oceans for about another century. The warming ocean would melt the ice-packs in Greenland and Antarctica. And, finally, those melting masses of ice would raise the sea level.

“We’ve missed the boat, so to speak, on stopping serious warming in a way so we can turn it around real quick,” says Harold Wanless, chair of the department of geological sciences at the University of Miami. “That’s gone, we’ve warmed the ocean too much. So we’re in for it now.”

[...]

Exactly what South Florida will look like a decade from now is anyone’s guess. It’s impossible to predict whether another hurricane will devastate the area, or at what point insurance companies might balk at the risk.

Meanwhile, not everyone wants to discuss the notion of long-term evacuation. There’s the prospect of plummeting home values, of the massive public and private costs. And there’s a decidedly human factor: Some people don’t want to leave the places they call home, come hell or high water.

“People think that everywhere we live has always been there, and that’s just not true,” Prof. Wanless says. “Every community is so afraid of facing the reality that you have to move on some day, and honestly plan for it.”

Complete article >>
Quoting 238. PlazaRed:

Very warm in the Medditerrainian now with a lot more heat to come over the next few weeks.



Sure Plaza. We're getting boiled in our Europe these days!


Croatia: HEAT WAVE: Red Alert for Next 7 Days

23 hours ago
Usually sunshine and heat is not really news during summer, but what is in store for Croatia in the next few days is worthy of some attention. Not only are July records in danger of being broken, so too are all-time records as a front from north-east Africa makes its way down to the Mediterranean. Extreme temperatures are expected to last for at least the next 7-10 days and the Met office has issued most of Croatia with a ‘red’ warning, the highest degree it issues.
With the extreme heat, expected to pass 40°C in some regions, comes a number of serious potential health dangers, especially for the nation’s elderly. Health authorities have again issued warnings for citizens this weekend, giving the standard advice of consuming plenty of fluids, keeping out of the sun during peak hours, eating light foods and wearing light clothing.
High temperatures also increase the risks of forest fires and citizens have been advised to be careful when out in the nature with cigarettes and fires. If you need to report any fires call 193 or 112.
The highest ever temperature in Croatia was in the town of Ploče where 42.8°C was recorded on 4 August 1981.
Here are the July records under threat:
Dubrovnik – 38.4°C
Hvar – 37.7°C
Knin – 41.4°C
Šibenik 38.°C
Zadar 35.8°C

(Source: Crometeo)


Current very warm temps of the Mediterranean Sea. Increasing chance for "medicanes" later this year when colder troughs from the north will move over this soup.

Greetings to Spain! And have a nice weekend everybody.
Quoting 231. Kenfa03:


Why triple flag? I like reading both sides of the debate.
Because it's not a debate. If you actually read that guy's post, you would see that he cites no facts, no studies, nothing except accusations - yeah, he mentioned RSS but if you've been following the discussion at all you would know that RSS does not measure surface temps and has its own problems interpreting satellite data. On the other hand, the OP gives plenty of observations and measurements - actual numbers, you know - and posters on here have repeatedly cited the many studies and peer reviewed literature that tells us the world is warming and we humans are causing it.

Baseless accusations vs peer reviewed science and actual observations. That's not a debate. That's someone slinging BS because they don't like what the science says - or maybe because they're being paid to sling it.

The REAL debate is what to do about it - but a lot of people (including that guy) don't want to go there because the answer starts with: reduce fossil fuel emissions drastically.
"The wettest June on record" here in Illinois caused the loss of half of my cherry harvest due to mold. At least I don't have to irrigate this year!
Well, I'm back, much to the dismay of some. I almost wasn't back though. Went in for a simple cataract operation and ended spending 2.5 days in ICU with an endotracheal tube. The eye center released me much too soon, when my oxygen saturation was still below 90% and my pulse and BP were way too high. The place is a cattle call, so I'm not surprised. It was a 50 mile drive home and, by the time I got here, I had basically quit breathing. My fiance is a nurse, so she got me to the ED ASAP. They pulled the vent tube Wednesday morning and I apparently went a little nuts. As in trying to hit the nurses. I took care of many ventilator patients in my days as a respiratory therapist and have never seen that kind of reaction. I have no memory of any of this until about 0200 Thursday morning when I suddenly regained my mind and said "Where the heck am I ?!?!". This had to be some kind of medication interaction, and I'm starting to pursue that now. Whatever it was, I'm thankful to be alive. Then my optometrist says "OH, the other eye won't be so bad !!!!". Luckily for him, we were on the phone at the time.

So I see while I was off somewhere, 93L was born and now seems to be on the critical list, just like I was. It's still hotter than snot in SE Alabama. We are now on our fifth day of a heat advisory, and looks like nothing will change for at least another week. I usually can tolerate the heat, but these days of 100 degree temperatures and 108 dewpoints with zero rain are getting to be a little much.
Quoting 249. FLwolverine:

Because it's not a debate. If you actually read that guy's post, you would see that he cites no facts, no studies, nothing except accusations - yeah, he mentioned RSS but if you've been following the discussion at all you would know that RSS does not measure surface temps and has its own problems interpreting satellite data. On the other hand, the OP gives plenty of observations and measurements - actual numbers, you know - and posters on here have repeatedly cited the many studies and peer reviewed literature that tells us the world is warming and we humans are causing it.

Baseless accusations vs peer reviewed science and actual observations. That's not a debate. That's someone slinging BS because they don't like what the science says - or maybe because they're being paid to sling it.

The REAL debate is what to do about it - but a lot of people (including that guy) don't want to go there because the answer starts with: reduce fossil fuel emissions drastically.

Per post 247 its too late for Florida. Pretty depressing.
re. # 204, It's the anti-GW mafia that you have to look-out for.


Imagine how that will look as that rises to the four to six feet Florida's on track to see by century's end, as Harold Wanless, a scientist at the University of Miami, told the New York Times.
The end of the century is a long way off yet. Since no one knows for sure how much the seas will rise -or how fast - some officials are planning for the more optimistic scenarios and thinking up shorter-term solutions. Charles Tear, a Miami Beach emergency management coordinator, told the Times that local governments are planning to deal with a rise of between five and 15 inches over the next 50 years, less than the sea-level rise many scientists predict. "We're not comfortable looking at 2100," another planning official said.

Full Article
No such thing as "routine" or "minor" surgery. Glad you are ok.

Very hot summer here as well. Blazing. Flat surf but good for the nine year old. We are also starting to dry out.

Probably going to be a slow hurricane season overall but there is definitely the potential for at least one significant homegrown threat to the southeast coast.


Quoting 251. sar2401:

Well, I'm back, much to the dismay of some. I almost wasn't back though. Went in for a simple cataract operation and ended spending 2.5 days in ICU with an endotracheal tube. The eye center released me much too soon, when my oxygen saturation was still below 90% and my pulse and BP were way too high. The place is a cattle call, so I'm not surprised. It was a 50 mile drive home and, by the time I got here, I had basically quit breathing. My fiance is a nurse, so she got me to the ED ASAP. They pulled the vent tube Wednesday morning and I apparently went a little nuts. As in trying to hit the nurses. I took care of many ventilator patients in my days as a respiratory therapist and have never seen that kind of reaction. I have no memory of any of this until about 0200 Thursday morning when I suddenly regained my mind and said "Where the heck am I ?!?!". This had to be some kind of medication interaction, and I'm starting to pursue that now. Whatever it was, I'm thankful to be alive. Then my optometrists says "OH, the other eye won't be so bad !!!!". Luckily for him, we were on the phone at the time.

So I see while I was off somewhere, 93L was born and now seems to be on the critical list, just like I was. It's still hotter than snot in SE Alabama. We are now on our fifth day of a heat advisory, and looks like nothing will change for at least another week. I usually can tolerate the heat, but these days of 100 degree temperatures and 108 dewpoints with zero rain are getting to be a little much.
Quoting 247. Xandra:

From The Globe and Mail:

Come hell or high water: The disaster scenario that is South Florida

[...]

Scientists are starting to suggest that, in the long run, much of South Florida cannot be saved and that policymakers should begin planning for how to best deal with a massive northward exodus in the coming decades, as some of the most iconic real estate on the continent begins to succumb to the sea.

“Sooner or later, this city, as you see it right now, won’t be like this,” says Henry Briceño, a water-quality researcher at Florida International University. “Miami and the whole of South Florida is not going to be like this any more. So we have to develop a way to plan and supply services in a changing scenario, and that’s not easy. And then, sooner or later, we’ll have to move. Most of the population will have to move.”

Imagine a prohibition on fossil fuels, effective tomorrow. Every gas-guzzler off the road; every coal plant shuttered; every source of greenhouse-gas emissions brought under control.

Even then, by some estimates, the atmosphere would experience residual warming for another 30 years. That, in turn, would continue to heat the oceans for about another century. The warming ocean would melt the ice-packs in Greenland and Antarctica. And, finally, those melting masses of ice would raise the sea level.

“We’ve missed the boat, so to speak, on stopping serious warming in a way so we can turn it around real quick,” says Harold Wanless, chair of the department of geological sciences at the University of Miami. “That’s gone, we’ve warmed the ocean too much. So we’re in for it now.”

[...]

Exactly what South Florida will look like a decade from now is anyone’s guess. It’s impossible to predict whether another hurricane will devastate the area, or at what point insurance companies might balk at the risk.

Meanwhile, not everyone wants to discuss the notion of long-term evacuation. There’s the prospect of plummeting home values, of the massive public and private costs. And there’s a decidedly human factor: Some people don’t want to leave the places they call home, come hell or high water.

“People think that everywhere we live has always been there, and that’s just not true,” Prof. Wanless says. “Every community is so afraid of facing the reality that you have to move on some day, and honestly plan for it.”

Complete article >>
...Which makes this past week's announcement for my county look particularly--in fact, ludicrously--short-sighted:

Plans moving ahead for new town in eastern Collier County

Big plans are in the works for a brand new town in eastern Collier County. Long term plans include 10,000 homes, a school, healthcare facilities and its own downtown center.

“It’s a large deal by far, it’s our next step as we start to see development east of 951,” said Jamie French, Deputy Department Head for Growth Management in Collier County.

Officials anticipate the biggest growth throughout Collier County to be concentrated in this area. Nearly 350,000 people are expected to be living east of State Road 951 in the next few decades.

“It’s very spread out and it covers a good number of miles and it’s going to redefine that whole eastern area of Collier County,” said French.

Right now Collier Enterprises and Minto Communities is in the permitting process. The first phase would include 4,000 new homes and a downtown center, expected to be ready for construction in 2017 and finished by 2018.

In the future the self-sustaining town would include 10,000 homes, 1.9 million square feet of commercial space, churches, a fire department, school and healthcare facilities.

As of right now, agriculture crops take up much of the area at Rural Lands West. The county says the crops will be relocated to surrounding areas prior to construction.


----------------------------

Collier is a very 'red' county--that is, it is a bastion of conservative politicians at every level. Fox is a constant fixture on every TV; anti-Obama bumper stickers abound. In fact, it's the home of Florida Gov. Rick "Don't mention climate change or you're fired" Scott. So it's no surprise that the area's "planners" say that this planned development is "going to redefine that whole eastern area of Collier County", while altogether ignoring the fact that rising sea levels are going to do a hell of a lot more "redefining". Where scientists see a coming catastrophe, these benign denialists see only dollar signs.

SMH...
the way 99E is RAPIDLY organizeig i think its well on the way on becomeing a TD in fact i see a SPECIAL Outlook soon if 99E keep this up


18/1145 UTC 7.4N 105.0W T1.5/1.5 99E -- East Pacific

i would say 99E will be a TD or even a TS by the end of the day if it keeps this up i think 99E is going


i say 99E is clear a TD now and close too a TS



247. Xandra

Come hell or high water: The disaster scenario that is South Florida

Miami's luxury condos causing "real estate apartheid"

America's housing market is soaring, and one Florida property is adding flash and bling to a beachside skyline. High above the Miami suburb of Sunny Isles Beach, buying a Porsche is taking on new meaning, CBS News' Vicente Arenas reports.

When Juan Pablo Verdiquio comes home, he'll park his car in an elevator that carries cars and people to their condos on any of the 60 floors in the Porsche Design Tower. It's the first elevator of its kind.

"It's unique, that's for sure. It is beyond crazy. Beyond crazy," Verdiquio said. "But it's a boy's toy."


Quoting 251. sar2401:

Well, I'm back, much to the dismay of some. I almost wasn't back though. Went in for a simple cataract operation and ended spending 2.5 days in ICU with an endotracheal tube. The eye center released me much too soon, when my oxygen saturation was still below 90% and my pulse and BP were way too high. The place is a cattle call, so I'm not surprised. It was a 50 mile drive home and, by the time I got here, I had basically quit breathing. My fiance is a nurse, so she got me to the ED ASAP. They pulled the vent tube Wednesday morning and I apparently went a little nuts. As in trying to hit the nurses. I took care of many ventilator patients in my days as a respiratory therapist and have never seen that kind of reaction. I have no memory of any of this until about 0200 Thursday morning when I suddenly regained my mind and said "Where the heck am I ?!?!". This had to be some kind of medication interaction, and I'm starting to pursue that now. Whatever it was, I'm thankful to be alive. Then my optometrists says "OH, the other eye won't be so bad !!!!". Luckily for him, we were on the phone at the time.

So I see while I was off somewhere, 93L was born and now seems to be on the critical list, just like I was. It's still hotter than snot in SE Alabama. We are now on our fifth day of a heat advisory, and looks like nothing will change for at least another week. I usually can tolerate the heat, but these days of 100 degree temperatures and 108 dewpoints with zero rain are getting to be a little much.


Hopefully you will have the other eye done in a hospital, with the 23 hour monitoring.
Miami's luxury condos causing "real estate apartheid"



At the end of this report 3 days ago , there was graphic saying that 210 new condo towers had been built in the last 3 years. Talk about 'stranded assets" , and bubble economics.
Well 93L has done the expected, though earlier than expected. The wave behind will suffer the same fate.

I am one of the most optimistic people I know especially when it comes to hoping for a storm, but it is clear that it is too early and the conditions are too unfavourable for TWaves to get going in the MDR.
Quoting 260. ColoradoBob1:

Miami's luxury condos causing "real estate apartheid"



At the end of this report 3 days ago , there was graphic saying that 210 new condo towers had been built in the last 3 years. Talk about 'stranded assets" , and bubble economics.
Yep. Depending on where you build it, condos are not that expensive to construct, and can give the owner huge profit over a short amount of time.
Quoting 251. sar2401:

Well, I'm back, much to the dismay of some. I almost wasn't back though. Went in for a simple cataract operation and ended spending 2.5 days in ICU with an endotracheal tube. The eye center released me much too soon, when my oxygen saturation was still below 90% and my pulse and BP were way too high. The place is a cattle call, so I'm not surprised. It was a 50 mile drive home and, by the time I got here, I had basically quit breathing. My fiance is a nurse, so she got me to the ED ASAP. They pulled the vent tube Wednesday morning and I apparently went a little nuts. As in trying to hit the nurses. I took care of many ventilator patients in my days as a respiratory therapist and have never seen that kind of reaction. I have no memory of any of this until about 0200 Thursday morning when I suddenly regained my mind and said "Where the heck am I ?!?!". This had to be some kind of medication interaction, and I'm starting to pursue that now. Whatever it was, I'm thankful to be alive. Then my optometrists says "OH, the other eye won't be so bad !!!!". Luckily for him, we were on the phone at the time.

So I see while I was off somewhere, 93L was born and now seems to be on the critical list, just like I was. It's still hotter than snot in SE Alabama. We are now on our fifth day of a heat advisory, and looks like nothing will change for at least another week. I usually can tolerate the heat, but these days of 100 degree temperatures and 108 dewpoints with zero rain are getting to be a little much.


Welcome back Sar. Glad to know you are alive and in your right mind. Count yourself blessed to be here again. It's amazing the little things that can go awry.
93l looks like it poofed, healthy looking disturbance is following it.
Guys what about the wave behind ex93L. I think it can develop.
Hey! That's what I was about to say!
Quoting 265. HurricaneAndre:

Guys what about the wave behind ex93L. I think it can develop.
I was wondering where you were, glad to here that your OK. Get some rest if you need some, it's been hot while you've been gone.
Quoting 251. sar2401:

Well, I'm back, much to the dismay of some. I almost wasn't back though. Went in for a simple cataract operation and ended spending 2.5 days in ICU with an endotracheal tube. The eye center released me much too soon, when my oxygen saturation was still below 90% and my pulse and BP were way too high. The place is a cattle call, so I'm not surprised. It was a 50 mile drive home and, by the time I got here, I had basically quit breathing. My fiance is a nurse, so she got me to the ED ASAP. They pulled the vent tube Wednesday morning and I apparently went a little nuts. As in trying to hit the nurses. I took care of many ventilator patients in my days as a respiratory therapist and have never seen that kind of reaction. I have no memory of any of this until about 0200 Thursday morning when I suddenly regained my mind and said "Where the heck am I ?!?!". This had to be some kind of medication interaction, and I'm starting to pursue that now. Whatever it was, I'm thankful to be alive. Then my optometrist says "OH, the other eye won't be so bad !!!!". Luckily for him, we were on the phone at the time.

So I see while I was off somewhere, 93L was born and now seems to be on the critical list, just like I was. It's still hotter than snot in SE Alabama. We are now on our fifth day of a heat advisory, and looks like nothing will change for at least another week. I usually can tolerate the heat, but these days of 100 degree temperatures and 108 dewpoints with zero rain are getting to be a little much.
Quoting 264. sflmike:

93l looks like it poofed, healthy looking disturbance is following it.
Quoting 266. TCweatherman:

Hey! That's what I was about to say!
Quoting 265. HurricaneAndre:

Guys what about the wave behind ex93L. I think it can develop.



hey you guys read this post

261. LemieT
6:56 AM PDT on July 18, 2015

Well 93L has done the expected, though earlier than expected. The wave behind will suffer the same fate.

------------------------------------------------- ----------------------


nothing will come out the wave this year you guys are looking in the wrong spot the that wave will do this like what ex 93L did poof
Some good convection this morning on the other wave centred at 8 N , 32 W

B.C., Sask. premiers call for national forest fire strategy

ST. JOHN'S, N.L. - Saying this year's wildfires may be the new normal, the premiers of British Columbia and Saskatchewan are calling for a national approach to fighting forest fires................. B.C.'s Christy Clark says a national plan is needed because climate change means long hot burning summers are not going to be the exception in western Canada.

Clark added that her province budgeted 60-million dollars to fight forest fires this year, but the bill could be as high as 400-million.


Link
Smoke and fires in eastern Russia

Terra/MODIS
2015/198
07/17/2015
02:45 UTC

Link
Quoting 270. superpete:

Some good convection this morning on the other wave centred at 8 N , 32 W



It kinda stands out from the other waves that have exited Africa this season. It actually almost looks like a depression on satellite.
Quoting 266. TCweatherman:

Hey! That's what I was about to say!

Me too.
Quoting 267. TCweatherman:

I was wondering where you were, glad to here that your OK. Get some rest if you need some, it's been hot while you've been gone.

Yes things have been very hot.
hope your feeling better 2401. 93 gave it a go.
Quoting 251. sar2401:

Well, I'm back, much to the dismay of some. I almost wasn't back though. Went in for a simple cataract operation and ended spending 2.5 days in ICU with an endotracheal tube. The eye center released me much too soon, when my oxygen saturation was still below 90% and my pulse and BP were way too high. The place is a cattle call, so I'm not surprised. It was a 50 mile drive home and, by the time I got here, I had basically quit breathing. My fiance is a nurse, so she got me to the ED ASAP. They pulled the vent tube Wednesday morning and I apparently went a little nuts. As in trying to hit the nurses. I took care of many ventilator patients in my days as a respiratory therapist and have never seen that kind of reaction. I have no memory of any of this until about 0200 Thursday morning when I suddenly regained my mind and said "Where the heck am I ?!?!". This had to be some kind of medication interaction, and I'm starting to pursue that now. Whatever it was, I'm thankful to be alive. Then my optometrist says "OH, the other eye won't be so bad !!!!". Luckily for him, we were on the phone at the time.

So I see while I was off somewhere, 93L was born and now seems to be on the critical list, just like I was. It's still hotter than snot in SE Alabama. We are now on our fifth day of a heat advisory, and looks like nothing will change for at least another week. I usually can tolerate the heat, but these days of 100 degree temperatures and 108 dewpoints with zero rain are getting to be a little much.


Sheesh! They released you with a pulse ox of 90%!? That's absurd. Glad you survived it and are recovering.
Quoting 275. islander101010:

hope your feeling better 2401. 93 gave it a go.

I think 93L paved the way for the other waves. That wave behind it looks so sexy on satellite imagery.
Quoting 277. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I think 93L paved the way for the other waves. That wave behind it looks so sexy on satellite imagery.



dos not matter nothing will fourm from it it will do the same thing that 93L did POOF
Great to see you back Sar. What an ordeal but you are a tough, old, spit and take no flack, cow hand.
Volcanic eruptions that changed human history

Researchers find new evidence that large eruptions were responsible for cold temperature extremes recorded since early Roman times


(Click for larger image)

Image source Nature, 2015; DOI: 10.1038/nature14565
Quoting 259. SunnyDaysFla:



Hopefully you will have the other eye done in a hospital, with the 23 hour monitoring.
Well, I certainly won't be going back to that eye center again. It turns out the doctor that did my procedure gallivantes all over Al and FL doing this production line surgery. There certainly needs to be more scrutiny over these stand-alone surgical centers.
Quoting 272. IndividualThinker2:

To Naga5000: R.e. Maunder Minimum prediction by Popova et al, and Maunder Minimum Flux "post-diction" by Judith Lean et al, which has an estimated change in flux of 2.8W/m^2

You cited the paper showing how, starting with an estimate of a change in flux being 1.5W/M^2, then divided by the difference in the surface of earth and cross-section, i.e. 4, them multiplied by .7 (I think) to get 0.26W/m^2. If Lean's numbers are correct, this would instead scale to an average forcing of 0.49W/m^2....(2.8/4)*0.7 = 0.49w/m^2.

However, that is a faulty assumption, because we both know that the Earth climate system does not respond linearly to changes in solar flux. For example, during the Summer, when land ice and sea ice are usually melting, the Arctic receives much more daylight than night time, so a change in solar flux would effect the polar (summers) much more heavily than perhaps any other location or season. Because melting (or failing to melt) ice provides positive or negative feedbacks respectively, this 2.8W/m^2 change has a much bigger impact than the linear average of the planet's cross section divided by surface, which is the number you use.

The two teams used different methods of measuring the Sun's flux so they have different initial datasets and reach different conclusions about the difference between the Maunder Minimum and present day. If Dr. Lean's team is correct, then the difference is about twice as much initially, not to mention any feedback mechanisms.

Sorry friend, but I don't believe for a minute that an average net negative forcing of just a quarter watt caused the little ice age.

Also, I think Volcanoes have been somewhat over-rated as sources of past climate change explanations, because we've had a VEI eruption in the tropics in modern times, Pinatubo, and it only effected the Earth's climate for about a year or two, whereas past ice ages and little ice ages last for centuries, millennia, and even hundreds of thousands of years. And let's not discuss Milankovich cycles and so forth, because I'm aware of those, and none of that was important to the LIA.
Your post about the Maunder Minimum is decent. I think your wrong about volcanic activity and the climate. One single volcanic eruption in 1991 ( Mount Pinatubo )...Nevermind the mass eruptions of the past or supervolcanoes... Except from WIKI and the link

.

This very large stratospheric injection resulted in a reduction in the normal amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface by roughly 10% . This led to a decrease in northern hemisphere average temperatures of 0.5%u20130.6 %uFFFDC (0.9%u20131.1 %uFFFDF) and a global fall of about 0.4 %uFFFDC (0.7 %uFFFDF). At the same time, the temperature in the stratosphere rose to several degrees higher than normal, due to absorption of radiation by the aerosol. The stratospheric cloud from the eruption persisted in the atmosphere for three years after the eruption. While not directly responsible, the eruption may have played a part in the formation of the 1993 Storm of the Century.....Link
Quoting 279. Wolfberry:

Great to see you back Sar. What an ordeal but you are a tough, old, spit and take no flack, cow hand.
Thank you. I wish I could say I was really a tough old spit but, frankly, I have no memory of what happened. Maybe it was built-in or something but I certainly couldn't do anything myself. Makes me realize just how tenuous our attachment to reality can be.
Quoting 276. RickWPB:



Sheesh! They released you with a pulse ox of 90%!? That's absurd. Glad you survived it and are recovering.
Yeah, I was a little miffed when I found that out...not mention a BP of 240/160 and a pulse of 117. Just normal stuff for them, I guess. The nurse said my pulse ox was 91% so I was good to go. I think I was already getting very apneic. I wouldn't have left without some intervention if I understood what was going on. I need to get all my records from the eye center and the local hospital so I can take it to my doctor and see if we can understand any medication interactions. I'm a little concerned about doing that without an attorney and a subpoena. I hate to bring an attorney in on this, but I also worked in hospitals long enough to know they'll sanitize the records in a heartbeat if they think they are just going to a patient.
Quoting 277. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I think 93L paved the way for the other waves. That wave behind it looks so sexy on satellite imagery.
Maybe. July is a bad time for African waves, especially this year. Mid-August into September should be prime time to finally get some MDR action, but we need the vertical instability to increase along with the water temperatures.
Quoting 267. TCweatherman:

I was wondering where you were, glad to here that your OK. Get some rest if you need some, it's been hot while you've been gone.
Thanks. It's pretty terrible out there. It wouldn't be so bad if we got any kind of rain but there's zero over this way. Every day, BMX gets all excited about some wave rounding the ridge and, except for a narrow corridor along I-65, we get nothing. The entire Southeast is completely devoid of convection - in July. Strange stuff.
Quoting 263. LemieT:



Welcome back Sar. Glad to know you are alive and in your right mind. Count yourself blessed to be here again. It's amazing the little things that can go awry.
Thanks. It certainly is. One of the reasons to make sure your will is in shape before you undergo any procedure, no matter how minor. This was, in theory, as minor as you can get, and they almost killed me.
Study: Western pine beetle outbreak may have weakened next generation of trees by wiping out key fungi

FRISCO — The recent pine beetle outbreak in western forests may have left the next generation of trees more vulnerable to future pests, Canadian researchers concluded in a new study that examined how the wave of tree deaths affected fungi that grow together with lodgepole pines.

Many trees, including lodgepoles, are partly dependent on certain fungi that enable a nutrient exchange at the cellular level. But the pine beetle outbreak was so widespread that many of the beneficial fungi disappeared.


Link

Quoting 251. sar2401:

Well, I'm back, much to the dismay of some.
Welcome back, sar!

Your eye surgery tale is about the wildest thing on this weather blog in quite a while. I look forward to your color commentary on the craziness going forward. :)

Regarding your interest in Search & Rescue, here's a story of a nearly miraculous escape from near death in the North Cascades in Washington State.

Stay strong!
Quoting 286. sar2401:

Maybe. July is a bad time for African waves, especially this year. Mid-August into September should be prime time to finally get some MDR action, but we need the vertical instability to increase along with the water temperatures.



no wont it wont not this year the MDR is closed and wind shear have been way above norml for most of that area
This El nino looks like it will be strong when you get this.
Quoting 291. Tazmanian:




no wont it wont not this year the MDR is closed and wind shear have been way above norml for most of that area
I'm sure we will get something there by September.

280. Xandra
2:47 PM GMT on July 18, 2015
Volcanic eruptions that changed human history

Thanks for fetching this one , saved me the trip.

Been looking at that graph more closely , The # 2 most powerful eruption came in 1257 preceded by less than a decade of a third tier eruption. In fact there's a whole cluster between 1100, and 1257. What was going on at this time ?

The Abandonment of Chaco Canyon, the Mesa Verde . Chaco Canyon in 1150, and Mesa Verde around 1276.

Quoting 254. ProgressivePulse:



Imagine how that will look as that rises to the four to six feet Florida's on track to see by century's end, as Harold Wanless, a scientist at the University of Miami, told the New York Times.
The end of the century is a long way off yet. Since no one knows for sure how much the seas will rise -or how fast - some officials are planning for the more optimistic scenarios and thinking up shorter-term solutions. Charles Tear, a Miami Beach emergency management coordinator, told the Times that local governments are planning to deal with a rise of between five and 15 inches over the next 50 years, less than the sea-level rise many scientists predict. "We're not comfortable looking at 2100," another planning official said.

Full Article

Interesting that the article says that they are planning on a rise of 5 to 15 inches over the next 50 years?
Seems that some reports say we have already had about 8-9inches of a sea level rise. That's a quarter of the next 3 foot that's predicted to come along soon.
Common sense is not a prevalent feature of a lot of humanity.
What are they going to propose?
A dyke around Florida built on the coastlines beaches and sea water pumped out regularly?
What about the fresh water systems; a lot of them are going to get infiltrated with salt water, maybe some massive desalination plants just inside the hypothetical dyke!

Would it not be wise and prudent to face up to the future of parts of Florida being under water?
Added to this, as the sea level rises according to predictions, then a lot of the very flat land will become over washed by sea water during storms, we might not even want to think about what might happen during hurricanes but we will, just to be realistic?

Anybody ever heard of King Canute?
Good almost afternoon!

It's an overcast 87 feeling like 93 here on the island today. Still not a drop of water to be seen. As I said before, the only ones benefitting this drought are the water trucks!

There was an interesting article about the Puerto Rico drought published here Link

This is my favorite part of the article:

"...— including a suggestion that men should shower with their wives, offered up by one former mayor —"

sar: Glad to "see" you up and running again!

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
Wow! So I just watched the "Tropical Update" on the Weather Channel twice in the last two hours… The "hurricane specialist" literally said the exact same thing over again with the same exact words, WHAT A JOKE… I don't know what is worse, their reality tv show "Fat Guys in the Woods" or the fact that myself as a 9th grader know more about the tropics than those clowns. Disgusting really. And they wonder why their ratings get worse and worse...
Ohm, ohm, .....Ahh, ah, ahhh, ah, ahhhhh'


Quoting 290. rayduray2013:


Welcome back, sar!

Your eye surgery tale is about the wildest thing on this weather blog in quite a while. I look forward to your color commentary on the craziness going forward. :)

Regarding your interest in Search & Rescue, here's a story of a nearly miraculous escape from near death in the North Cascades in Washington State.

Stay strong!

Wow! Quite a story. She was very lucky to survive and be able to hike out. I'm familiar with Mazama, and that place is some kind of magnet for plane crashes. Must be the local weather conditions. We had three pilots from my county go down up there, and I flew up twice after interviewing relatives. That's some rugged territory. I'm a little disappointed n the dispatcher though. Not knowing her mental state, he should have kept her on the phone until a unit arrived.
I've got 88F with 80% good for a heat index of 106F at 11am CDT.

Guh...






Origin

Cape Verde-type hurricanes typically develop from tropical waves which form in the African savanna during the wet season, then move into the African steppes. The disturbances move off the western coast of Africa and become tropical storms or tropical cyclones within 1,000 kilometres (620 mi) of the Cape Verde Islands, usually between July to September.

However, Cape Verde hurricanes have formed as early as June or as late as October. An average of two form per hurricane season.

More,here...


Quoting 298. Patrap:

Ohm, ohm, .....Ahh, ah, ahhh, ah, ahhhhh'






i have a good place for that chart

Since Mr. Henson mentioned GW and it is a fair topic till there is another post...WU Mail


Dear certain members of AGW crowd.
My reason for reaching out to you is strictly to discuss the manner with which you put forward your points of view. For whatever reason, and maybe I'm wrong, or maybe you just don't realize it, but you're very very nasty how you put forth your point of view. Being 100% correct does that mean that somebody can be 100% nasty rebutting or correcting other people.

Since my only, only point was the manner in which you put forward your points of view, I will not discuss AGW with you because I really don't care.

The problem with the AGW crowd, which I don't think anybody acknowledges in the AGW crowd, is that they might be 100% correct, let's say they are 100% correct, it still doesn't mean they know the outcome. ( every good mathematician knows, you have to have as many equations as variables or you cannot come up with an answer. And with the climate there are way more variables than we have a equations at this point. )

Science solves problems. It does not just create problems. Man-made problems often have man-made solutions. The catalytic converter is a fantastic example of science addressing a problem.

Now that everyone in the world is focused on AGW, I see all sorts of efforts being made to control or fix the problem. The suggestion by the AGW crowd that the only way to fix the issue that they see at hand is the way they want to do it, apparently elimination of fossil fuels, , which is to stop everything as we know it and how we operate as a planet, might be is a little bit absurd. Fossil fuels might always have a place in our energy world... and for now should.

I wonder why the AGW crowd does not convene a conference to debate The validity and feasibility of alternate technologies to control AGW?

Better than society making a long-term goal of returning everybody to bicycles.

In the very short period of time, two weeks, I've engaged the AGW crowd for shouting down everybody else, I presented you with two scientific plans at work to control the issue. ( The second follows this piece). The moment the large oil companies are presented with a proposal to control AGW and allow them to continue to sell oil, the funding will be there immediately to solve or limit the problem.

Finally, lightheartedly, I want to caution you on behalf of all the people who love cold-weather, for being forceful and pushing your AGW points of view. If your science is not completely right, or there are factors you don't understand that will counter the things that you do understand, and we build mechanisms to deal with AGW, and we don't need them, it's going to be mighty ass cold in this planet.


"""Science
Could an ASTEROID protect Earth against climate change? Teenager proposes how to create a dust screen using orbiting rocks

By Victoria Woollaston for MailOnline
09:51 13 Jul 2015,

The idea was proposed by 14-year-old Danila Kuznetsov from Ukraine
He is one of 90 regional finalists in the annual Google Science Fair
Other proposals include a wearable microscope, software that identifies Alzheimer's and a glove that improves grip and hand tremors
While environmentalists look for ways to protect the planet from climate change from the ground up, a teenager has aimed for the stars... quite literally.

Danila Kuznetsov, 14, from Ukraine has proposed a plan that would involve generating screens of dust from orbiting asteroids to shield Earth from the sun's radiation.

Danila Kuznetsov, 14, from Ukraine has proposed a plan that would involved generating screens of dust from orbiting asteroids that would shield Earth from the sun's radiation. An 'aerosol generator' would be used to grind the asteroid into dust and then distribute these dust particles in a circular motion to create a screen +15
Danila Kuznetsov, 14, from Ukraine has proposed a plan that would involved generating screens of dust from orbiting asteroids that would shield Earth from the sun's radiation. An 'aerosol generator' would be used to grind the asteroid into dust and then distribute these dust particles in a circular motion to create a screen
Danila's proposal suggests using a small asteroid orbiting between Earth and the sun at what's known as the Lagrange Point.

Lagrange Points are positions where the gravitational pull of two large masses - in this case the Earth and sun - equals the centripetal force needed for a small object to orbit between them.

An 'aerosol generator' would then be used to grind the asteroid into dust and distribute these dust particles in a circular motion to create a screen.


Danila explained that the total surface of the dust particles would be 'millions of times greater than the surface area of the asteroid itself' which makes it possible to create the shield.

As the dust particles move and spread, the generator would also help to create an electromagnetic field around the asteroid to keep the particles in place.

'The combination of the magnetic field, which gives the pulverised material a circular direction of movement, and the electric field which holds that material in orbit around the centre of rotating, it makes it possible to adjust the size of the cloud and give it stability,' explained Danila.

Danila's proposal suggests using a small asteroid orbiting between Earth and the sun at what's known as the Lagrange Point. Lagrange Points are positions where the gravitational pull of two large masses - in this case the Earth and sun - equals the centripetal force needed for a small object to orbit between them +15
Danila's proposal suggests using a small asteroid orbiting between Earth and the sun at what's known as the Lagrange Point. Lagrange Points are positions where the gravitational pull of two large masses - in this case the Earth and sun - equals the centripetal force needed for a small object to orbit between them
As the dust particles move and spread, the generator would also help to create an electromagnetic field around the asteroid to keep the particles in place. During experiments (pictured), in which Danila used an 'radiation source', a spray with ground material inside a Petri dish, and a webcam, he simulated his proposal +15
As the dust particles move and spread, the generator would also help to create an electromagnetic field around the asteroid to keep the particles in place. During experiments (pictured), in which Danila used an 'radiation source', a spray with ground material inside a Petri dish, and a webcam, he simulated his proposal
During experiments, in which Danila used an unnamed 'radiation source', a spray with ground material inside a Petri dish, and a webcam, he was able to simulate his proposal."""


Easy to burn the chart,when one lives on the West coast, eh Taz ?

Am meeting Koritheman here in NOLA as He is in town for Mecha con.


Quoting 304. Patrap:

Easy to burn the chart,when one lives on the West coast, eh Taz ?

Am meeting Koritheman here in NOLA as He is in town for Mecha con.



Greetings Pat..Mecha Con.?
Some seem to forget that even in inactive years the Atlantic can still produce some nasty storms.Even in inactive years you still have to keep your eye out.For example Arthur last year if he would have came 60 miles closer to the coast it would have been a different story for the 4th of July and if Cristobal would have slammed into Miami like the models were originally showing as a cat 4 people would have remembered that season for years to come.Wait until November 30th to do all the smack talking.The lack of strong hurricanes for the U.S is going to come to a end sooner or later and by the way people are carrying on this blog they will be in for a rude and very abrupt awakening.
Morning hydrus

Son is going as Hans Solo, so we sitting here reading Star War quotes and eating boiled shrimps.

Its NOLA afterall.

mechacon
Volcanic eruptions slow down climate change -- temporarily

Date:
July 9, 2015

Summary:
Although global concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has continuously increased over the past decade, the mean global surface temperature has not followed the same path. Scientists have now found an explanation for this slowing down in global warming: the incoming solar radiation in the years 2008-2011 was twice as much reflected by volcanic aerosol particles in the lowest part of the stratosphere than previously thought.

"Overall our results emphasize that even smaller volcanic eruptions are more important for the Earth´s climate than expected," summarize CARIBIC coordinators Dr. Carl Brenninkmeijer, MPI-C, and Dr. Andreas Zahn, KIT.

WU forecast has me down for a chance of a Thunderstorm but not till later.
Well, we already had a brief one which we were close one of the cells but not
directly under the strong part. Didn't last long, but enough to wet the street.
Well 93L has lost a bit of its convection on the E side
I say to still watch it I say it's convection will flair up again it seems to have already started on the West side of the system
Conditions on top of it has gotten a bit bad but to the W of it it's not too bad the shear levels are decreasing as that upper level low NNE off PR near 27N 58W backs off to the NE and the upper anticyclone E of Trinidad near 8N 56W continues to drift WNW
Anyway giving a centre point to the (at the moment) mess I'd say around 11.0N 43.7W moving W
Note convection building back from the centre going N so 11N to 13N second spot of rebuilding convection on the W side from 46.5W to 49W and 10N to 11.5N


On another note E Atlantic AOI WSW of the CV Islands in association with a tropical wave with a tropical low moving Westwards I do have to admit it's better looking and organised than 93L conditions slightly bit better for this system as its further S than 93L it may have a bit of problems when it reaches to where 93L is now near 43W but if it can build a better upper level pattern than what 93L has then it may be fine
Quoting 295. PlazaRed:


snip
Anybody ever heard of King Canute?

BINGO!
Quoting 304. Patrap:

Easy to burn the chart,when one lives on the West coast, eh Taz ?

Am meeting Koritheman here in NOLA as He is in town for Mecha con.




Tell Kori hi from all of us Pat. I always enjoyed his rock-n-roll on the blog here.
Quoting 304. Patrap:

Easy to burn the chart,when one lives on the West coast, eh Taz ?

Am meeting Koritheman here in NOLA as He is in town for Mecha con.





Say hi to kori for me. Thanks Pat. Sounds like a fun day!
Quoting 306. washingtonian115:

Some seem to forget that even in inactive years the Atlantic can still produce some nasty storms.Even in inactive years you still have to keep your eye out.For example Arthur last year if he would have came 60 miles closer to the coast it would have been a different story for the 4th of July and if Cristobal would have slammed into Miami like the models were originally showing as a cat 4 people would have remembered that season for years to come.Wait until November 30th to do all the smack talking.The lack of strong hurricanes for the U.S is going to come to a end sooner or later and by the way people are carrying on this blog they will be in for a rude and very abrupt awakening.
Yep...

93L...

Quoting 310. wunderkidcayman:

Well 93L has lost a bit of its convection on the E side
I say to still watch it I say it's convection will flair up again it seems to have already started on the West side of the system
Conditions on top of it has gotten a bit bad but to the W of it it's not too bad the shear levels are decreasing as that upper level low NNE off PR near 27N 58W backs off to the NE and the upper anticyclone E of Trinidad near 8N 56W continues to drift WNW
Anyway giving a centre point to the (at the moment) mess I'd say around 11.0N 43.7W moving W
Note convection building back from the centre going N so 11N to 13N second spot of rebuilding convection on the W side from 46.5W to 49W and 10N to 11.5N


On another note E Atlantic AOI WSW of the CV Islands in association with a tropical wave with a tropical low moving Westwards I do have to admit it's better looking and organised than 93L conditions slightly bit better for this system as its further S than 93L it may have a bit of problems when it reaches to where 93L is now near 43W but if it can build a better upper level pattern than what 93L has then it may be fine
Look, i really would like 93l to develop more than anyone else here but sadly is not the time yet to be looking at the MDR for development, she has everything going against her. Don't worry because soon you will have something to track in your area or in our area i hope. :)

Quoting 299. sar2401:

Wow! Quite a story. She was very lucky to survive and be able to hike out. I'm familiar with Mazama, and that place is some kind of magnet for plane crashes. Must be the local weather conditions. We had three pilots from my county go down up there, and I flew up twice after interviewing relatives. That's some rugged territory. I'm a little disappointed n the dispatcher though. Not knowing her mental state, he should have kept her on the phone until a unit arrived.
Yeah, the local weather conditions in the North Cascades often includes rocks in the low clouds. This is a classic case of the granddad violating the rules about flying blind into cloud cover. As to the distress call and the dispatcher, well, that also seems to be an example of standard operating procedure being casually disregarded. Luckily the 16 year old girl will have one harrowing tale to tell her grandkids. She won't need the Grimm Brothers, a'tall. :)
Quoting 316. Gearsts:

Look, i really would like 93l to develop more than anyone else here but sadly is not the time yet to be looking at the MDR for development, she has everything going against her. Don't worry because soon you will have something to track in your area or in our area i hope. :)

who said anything about developing into anything at this point its just about survival



A combination of regular monsoon and tropical moisture from Delores with a little upper level instability are firing some thunder showers in San Diego County. Rain amounts of about .10-.30 thus far and scattered with more scheduled for today and tomorrow. Then another trof with below normal temps for next week.........Im loving summer so far!
Good thing we had that rain this morning, before the oppressive heat begins to settle in.
Quoting 318. wunderkidcayman:


who said anything about developing into anything at this point its just about survival


303. leofarnsworth

Some recent headlines -

Internal Documents Show Fossil Fuel Industry Has Been Aware of Climate Change for Decades

Exxon knew of climate change in 1981, email says – but it funded deniers for 27 more years


The Evidence For How Fossil Fuel Companies Misled Us For Decades


I'm supposed to be "nice" in the face of this ?
Remember October looked like this last year.
Quoting 298. Patrap:

Ohm, ohm, .....Ahh, ah, ahhh, ah, ahhhhh'





Down boy.......Down


invest 99E IS HERE
Sar, I'm very sorry to hear of your bad experience with the surgery. Congrats on making it out and glad to have you back!
NICE TROPICAL WAVE BACK OF INVEST 93L
Thank you,Mr. Henson.


I am watching 32 west 9 north right now
Quoting 321. Gearsts:




you leave Nathan Fillion/ Richard Castel out of this
Hmmm. Very interesting.
Sar I'm glad you came out of your surgery. God is the ultimate healer and glad to have you back.
Quoting 282. hydrus:

Your post about the Maunder Minimum is decent. I think your wrong about volcanic activity and the climate. One single volcanic eruption in 1991 ( Mount Pinatubo )...Nevermind the mass eruptions of the past or supervolcanoes... Except from WIKI and the link

.

This very large stratospheric injection resulted in a reduction in the normal amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface by roughly 10% . This led to a decrease in northern hemisphere average temperatures of 0.5%u20130.6 %uFFFDC (0.9%u20131.1 %uFFFDF) and a global fall of about 0.4 %uFFFDC (0.7 %uFFFDF). At the same time, the temperature in the stratosphere rose to several degrees higher than normal, due to absorption of radiation by the aerosol. The stratospheric cloud from the eruption persisted in the atmosphere for three years after the eruption. While not directly responsible, the eruption may have played a part in the formation of the 1993 Storm of the Century.....Link


Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks

Excerpt:

Our results suggest that the onset of the LIA can be linked to an unusual 50-year-long episode with four large sulfur-rich explosive eruptions, each with global sulfate loading >60 Tg. The persistence of cold summers is best explained by consequent sea-ice/ocean feedbacks during a hemispheric summer insolation minimum; large changes in solar irradiance are not required.


i see two lows here!
Quoting 207. swflurker:

REALLY? TRIPLE FLAG!!!!!!!

Quoting 231. Kenfa03:


Why triple flag? I like reading both sides of the debate.
The real side and the fake side, right? Because, scientifically speaking, that's what we see in comment threads.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five
days.

$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN
current and past 12hrs




12-48hrs


342. txjac
Quoting 323. ColoradoBob1:

303. leofarnsworth

Some recent headlines -

Internal Documents Show Fossil Fuel Industry Has Been Aware of Climate Change for Decades

Exxon knew of climate change in 1981, email says – but it funded deniers for 27 more years


The Evidence For How Fossil Fuel Companies Misled Us For Decades


I'm supposed to be "nice" in the face of this ?


Then you shouldnt be "nice" to all those that are telling us to reduce our own carbon footprints, and I know that many on here have. Still irks me when our President used lots of evil oil to fly to Florida to give a speech on Climate Change. All of our politicians are pretty much corrupt ...do as I say, not as I do ...but as long as they are "saying" the right things then no one questions them about their own liability.
Quoting 340. Climate175:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five
days.

$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN


not surprised

we wait and watch to see if it makes a comeback
Quoting 339. AdamReith:

Quoting 207. swflurker:

REALLY? TRIPLE FLAG!!!!!!!

The real side and the fake side, right? Because, scientifically speaking, that's what we see in comment threads.
Quoting 339. AdamReith:

Quoting 207. swflurker:

REALLY? TRIPLE FLAG!!!!!!!

The real side and the fake side, right? Because, scientifically speaking, that's what we see in comment threads.

I'm not qualified to determine the real side from the fake side. That's the reason I like reading both sides.
337. JohnLonergan

From your link -

Here we present precisely dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada and Iceland showing that LIA summer cold and ice growth began abruptly between 1275 and 1300 AD,

280. Xandra
2:47 PM GMT on July 18, 2015
Volcanic eruptions that changed human history

Thanks for fetching this one , saved me the trip.

Been looking at that graph more closely , The # 2 most powerful eruption came in 1257 preceded by less than a decade of a third tier eruption. In fact there's a whole cluster between 1100, and 1257. What was going on at this time ?

The Abandonment of Chaco Canyon, the Mesa Verde . Chaco Canyon in 1150, and Mesa Verde around 1276.
Quoting 256. Neapolitan:

...Which makes this past week's announcement for my county look particularly--in fact, ludicrously--short-sighted:

Plans moving ahead for new town in eastern Collier County

Big plans are in the works for a brand new town in eastern Collier County. Long term plans include 10,000 homes, a school, healthcare facilities and its own downtown center....In fact, it's the home of Florida Gov. Rick "Don't mention climate change or you're fired" Scott.
Deliberate blindness. Unrestrained greed. Madness.

So it's no surprise that the area's "planners" say that this planned development is "going to redefine that whole eastern area of Collier County", while altogether ignoring the fact that rising sea levels are going to do a hell of a lot more "redefining".

SMH...
Hah! Indeed.

Where scientists see a coming catastrophe, these benign denialists see only dollar signs.
They will have made their money and be long gone when the water-logged chickens come home to roost.
Bizarre, I don't know of any Central Pacific system that went on to threaten Japan
Quoting 347. wxgeek723:

Bizarre, I don't know of any Central Pacific system that went on to threaten Japan

Hello..723..If memory serves, there have been quite a few..I dont have time to pull them up..The 70,s may have had a few.
Nice push of monsoonal moisture into SoCal this AM, surging between the Gulf Coast ridge and Dolores, enhanced by a midlevel low off of Point Conception and a trough dropping into the Great Basin. The action will be shifting slowly northward toward the SF Bay Area and the Sierras through Monday. Coastal SSTs remain near 60.
This is also about the time the Mexicas first moved into the Valley of Mexico from the north. Probably behind a lot of migrations worldwide about that time. Might have even had a hand in the Black Death by disrupting normal wildlife patterns across the Eurasian steppes.
Quoting 345. ColoradoBob1:

337. JohnLonergan

From your link -

Here we present precisely dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada and Iceland showing that LIA summer cold and ice growth began abruptly between 1275 and 1300 AD,

280. Xandra
2:47 PM GMT on July 18, 2015
Volcanic eruptions that changed human history

Thanks for fetching this one , saved me the trip.

Been looking at that graph more closely , The # 2 most powerful eruption came in 1257 preceded by less than a decade of a third tier eruption. In fact there's a whole cluster between 1100, and 1257. What was going on at this time ?

The Abandonment of Chaco Canyon, the Mesa Verde . Chaco Canyon in 1150, and Mesa Verde around 1276.
Quoting 315. GeoffreyWPB:

93L...





ex 93L
Quoting 348. hydrus:

Hello..723..If memory serves, there have been quite a few..I dont have time to pull them up..The 70,s may have had a few.


yep and also wasnt there a storm that starting in the Epac and ended up into the Wpac
also mentioning that 93L's low level vort has increased in size



350. BayFog -

Yep, lots of artifacts found at Chaco from central Mexico, parrot feathers, obsidian, etc. They certainly knew of the place.

After two centuries of migration and warfare, the Aztecs finally settle within the area now covered by Mexico City. They choose an uninhabited island in Lake Tetzcoco. This is either in the year 1325 or, more probably, 1345.


Read more: Link
Quoting 349. BayFog:

Nice push of monsoonal moisture into SoCal this AM, surging between the Gulf Coast ridge and Dolores, enhanced by a midlevel low off of Point Conception and a trough dropping into the Great Basin. The action will be shifting slowly northward toward the SF Bay Area and the Sierras through Monday. Coastal SSTs remain near 60.

Got another brief rain event about 10:00AM which was harder than the first, big drops, every bit helps.
The plumber working under the side of my house didn't much appreciate it though.
314. Gearsts
Which is why I'll continue to be on the lookout.
Quoting 303. leofarnsworth:

My reason for reaching out to you is strictly to discuss the manner with which you put forward your points of view. For whatever reason, and maybe I'm wrong, or maybe you just don't realize it, but you're very very nasty how you put forth your point of view. Being 100% correct does that mean that somebody can be 100% nasty rebutting or correcting other people.
C'mon, "100% nasty" is a deliberate exaggeration. Anyway, AGW "skeptics." who spread long-debunked misinformation get the tone of response they deserve--often better than they deserve.


Since my only, only point was the manner in which you put forward your points of view, I will not discuss AGW with you...
It's pretty obvious from the rest of your comment you haven't bothered to dig much into the science behind the subject, so this is not surprising. At least you are aware you don't know enough to discuss the subject intelligently. That puts you intellectually above most deniers.


...because I really don't care.
Then why bother? Your comment amounts to just tone trolling, doesn't it?

[snip]

Puny amount here, HHJoe did much better. They are forecasting 3 more periods of rain.
Quoting 349. BayFog:

Nice push of monsoonal moisture into SoCal this AM, surging between the Gulf Coast ridge and Dolores, enhanced by a midlevel low off of Point Conception and a trough dropping into the Great Basin. The action will be shifting slowly northward toward the SF Bay Area and the Sierras through Monday. Coastal SSTs remain near 60.
Let's just hope that the rain to lightening ratio is positive!
guys there is no more 93L 93L has been drop
Rain totals from monsoon/Delores starting to add up as of 10:30 Pacific time, seems everybody getting a little something anyway. Keep that moisture coming Delores! Delores still 1000 miles away and weakening....gotta love that tropical moisture.


SRUS46 KSGX 181751 CCA
RRMSGX

PRELIMINARY STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
1030 AM PDT SATURDAY JUL 18 2015


_______24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY_______


.TOP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL ZONES

STATION PRECIP(IN) MILES/DIRECTION FROM

1. CRAFTON RESERVOIR 0.71 2E REDLANDS
2. THERMAL AIRPORT 0.58 1W THERMAL
3. POPPET FLAT RAWS 0.46 4S BANNING
MILL CREEK EAST 0.46
5. RAMONA AIRPORT 0.45 2W RAMONA
SKY OAKS 0.45
7. WARNER SPRINGS 0.44
CITY CREEK RANGER STA 0.44 4SW RUNNING SPRINGS
9. DE LUZ 0.43
10.YUCAIPA RIDGE 0.40 2ESE FOREST FALLS


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
KEARNY MESA 0.07 455 6NNW SAN DIEGO
ENCINITAS 0.04 242 0 ENCINITAS
SAN ONOFRE 0.02 162 7NNW OCEANSIDE
OCEANSIDE 0.02 30 1N OCEANSIDE
CARLSBAD AIRPORT 0.02 357 3SE CARLSBAD
LAS FLORES RAWS 0.02 100 9NW OCEANSIDE
MONTGOMERY FIELD 0.01 423 6NNW SAN DIEGO
LINDBERGH FIELD T 13


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
CAMP TRGT RANGE RAWS 0.28 917 7W FALLBROOK
MT. WOODSON 0.23 1720 4NW POWAY
GOOSE VALLEY RAWS 0.19 1530 2NNW RAMONA
SANDIA CK RD 0.16 342 1NE FALLBROOK
RINCON SPRINGS 0.16 970 5NE VALLEY CENTER
VALLEY CENTER 0.16 1295 0 VALLEY CENTER
SKYLINE RANCH 0.16 562 2E VALLEY CENTER
LAKE WOHLFORD 0.16 1490 1SE VALLEY CENTER
RANCHO BERNARDO 0.15 690 0 SGX OFFICE
VALLEY CENTER RAWS 0.15 1370 1ENE VALLEY CENTER
PARADISE CREEK 0.12 950 3ENE VALLEY CENTER
ESCONDIDO 0.11 640 0 ESCONDIDO
RAINBOW CAMP 0.08 1553 2S TEMECULA
RAMONA 0.08 1420 0 RAMONA
DEER SPRINGS 0.08 1000 1SE ESCONDIDO
COLE GRADE RD 0.08 750 5N JULIAN
LOWER OAT FLATS 0.07 2239 5N JULIAN
MIRAMAR LAKE 0.05 130 3ESE MIRA MESA
FALLBROOK 0.04 675 1S FALLBROOK
BARONA 0.04 1280 3SSE RAMONA
SANTEE 0.04 300 2W SANTEE
COUSER CANYON 0.04 285 1WSW VALLEY CENTER
LA MESA 0.04 530 0 LA MESA
SAN MIGUEL RAWS 0.02 425 7SSE LA MESA


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
WARNER SPRINGS 0.44 3040
PALOMAR CRS 0.32 2SW PALOMAR MT
BIRCH HILL 0.32 5645 2SSW PALOMAR MT
OAK GROVE RAWS 0.22 2770 2NE PALOMAR MT
PALOMAR MOUNTAIN RAWS 0.17 5530 0 PALOMAR MT
VALLECITOS REPEATER 0.16 2945 6ENE VALLEY CENTER
RANCHITA RAWS 0.16 4180 5WSW BORREGO SPR
LA JOLLA AMAGO 0.15 2400 9ENE VALLEY CENTER
PALOMAR OBSERVATORY 0.14 5560 0 PALOMAR MT
LA JOLLA ERN TANKS 0.12 3000 3SSW PALOMAR MT
HENSHAW DAM 0.12 2750 0 LAKE HENSHAW
MESA GRANDE 0.12 3204
RANCHITA 0.08 4008 6WSW BORREGO SPR
VOLCAN MOUNTAIN 0.04 5410
JULIAN 0.04 4230 1E JULIAN
MT LAGUNA 0.04 6000 0 MT LAGUNA
MOUNT LAGUNA RAWS 0.03 5760 2N PINE VALLEY
JULIAN RAWS 0.01 4240 0 JULIAN


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
COYOTE CK 0.17 1189
BORREGO PALM CANYON 0.10 790 1NW BORREGO SPR
BORREGO SPRINGS 0.08 500 2ESE BORREGO SPR
OCOTILLO WELLS 0.05 425 10SE BORRO SPR


.ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
SEGUNDA DESHECA 0.01 85 1NW SAN CLEMENTE


.SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
SANTA ROSA PLATEAU 0.23 1980 2SSW MURRIETA
SYLVAN MEADOWS 0.16 1892 3WSW MURRIETA
EL CARISO RAWS 0.04 2660 1SW LAKE ELSINORE


.RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
HEMET/RYAN FIELD 0.39 1510 1WSW HEMET
GILMAN HOT SPRINGS 0.39 1511 4NE PERRIS
TEMECULA 0.24 1180 0 TEMECULA
FRENCH VALLEY AIRPORT 0.20 909 5NNE TEMECULA
PORTRERO CANYON 0.16 2220 1W FULLERTON
MORENO-CLARK 0.16 1810 1E MORENO VALLEY
CRANSTON RAWS 0.15 1950 6E HEMET
SKINNER LAKE 0.12 1700 4NE TEMECULA
BEAUMONT 0.12 2624 0 BEAUMONT
MURRIETA CK AT TENAJA 0.12 1100 0 MURRIETA
WOODCREST DAM 0.08 861 2S RIVERSIDE
RIVERSIDE SOUTH 0.04 875 0 RIVERSIDE
VAIL LAKE 0.04 1470 9E TEMECULA
RIVERSIDE AIRPORT 0.03 847 1W RIVERSIDE
BEAUMONT RAWS 0.02 2680 1E BEAUMONT


.RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
POPPET FLAT RAWS 0.46 3830 4S BANNING
SNOW CK 7N IDYLLWILD 0.27 6800 3N SAN JACINTO PK
VISTA GRANDE 0.24 4939 6SE BANNING
ALLANDALE 0.20 5800 3NE IDYLLWILD
MOUNT SAN JACINTO 0.20 8616 1ENE MT SAN JAC PK
VISTA GRANDE RAWS 0.19 4700 6WNW SAN JACINTO PK
KEENWILD RAWS 0.16 4920 6SW IDYLLWILD
BANNING BENCH 0.12 3619 5NE BEAUMONT
TICK RIDGE 0.12 4236 4NNW CABAZON
SAGE RAWS 0.10 2560 9SSE HEMET
LIVE OAK CANYON 0.08 6000 10SW IDYLLWILD
PINYON PINES RAWS 0.07 4060 1S PINYON PINES


.COACHELLA VALLEY

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
THERMAL AIRPORT 0.58 -118 1W THERMAL
KENT SEA FMS 3S MECCA 0.16 -205 3S MECCA
DEAD INDIAN BASIN 0.12 1050 20E INDO
MORONGO VALLEY 4SSW 0.08 2400 4SSW MORONGO VALLEY
PALM SPRINGS AIRPORT 0.08 425 IE PALMS SPRINGS
PALM DESERT 1S 0.08 440 1S PALM DESERT
BEAR CREEK 0.08 60 1N LA QUINTA
INDIO 0.08 -15 1NNE INDIO
CATHEDRAL CANYON 0.05 605 1W CATHEDRAL CITY
WHITEWATER TROUT FARM 0.04 2200 6WNW DRT HOT SPRINGS
DESERT HOT SPRINGS 0.04 1228 1N DESERT HOT SPRINGS
LOWER TAHQUITZ CREEK 0.04 560 1SW PALM SPRINGS
GOLF CLUB DR. PS 0.04 330 2SE PALM SPRINGS
PALM CANYON CREEK 0.04 700 6S PALM SPRINGS
INDIO HILLS 9N 0.04 1125 5NW THOUGHSAND PALMS


.SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
CRAFTON RESERVOIR 0.71 2000 2E REDLANDS
PLUNGE CREEK CANYON 0.35 1590 3E HIGHLAND
SAN BERNARDINO CO YRD 0.31 1033 1E SAN BERNARDINO
HEMLOCK BURN 0.31 2280
GILBERT ST NR SBD 0.28 1120 2NE SAN BERNARDINO
ELDER GULCH 0.28 2933 3ENE HIGHLAND
HIGHLAND PLUNGE CREEK 0.28 1911 4ESE HIGHLAND
RIALTO AIRPORT 0.24 1418 0 RIALTO
RIALTO FIRE STATION 0.23 1211 0 RIALTO
RECHE CANYON 0.19 1021 2W LOMA LINDA
SMALL CANYON DAM 0.19 1810 2N HIGHLAND
WILSON CREEK 0.19 2235 5ESE REDLANDS
YUCAIPA REGIONAL 0.16 2620 6E REDLANDS
ELDER CREEK 0.15 1649 2E HIGHLAND
SAN SEVAINE SPRDG GRD 0.08 1938 5NW FONTANA
CAL ST SAN BERNARDINO 0.08 1556 5NNW SAN BERNARDINO
DALEY SPUR 0.08 2680 5S CRESTLINE
CABAZON RAWS 0.05 2155 1NW CABAZON
LITTLE CHINO CK 0.04 646 1SW CHINO


.SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
CITY CREEK RANGER STA 0.44 2647 4SW RUNNING SPRINGS
YUCAIPA RIDGE 0.40 9020 2ESE FOREST FALLS
MANZANITA FLATS 0.39 3920 3ENE ANGELUS OAKS
OAK CREEK CANYON 0.32 3676 3NNE REDLAND AIRPORT
ERRY CREEK 0.30 2986
CONVERSE RAWS 0.30 5200 5NE ANGELUS OAKS
CEDAR GLEN 0.27 5317 4ESE LAKE ARROWHEAD
FAWNSKIN RAWS 0.26 6903 1N BIG BEAR LAKE
RAYWOOD FLATS 0.19 7097 3ESE SAN GOR MTN
PANORAMA POINT 0.19 3887 7WSW LAKE ARROWHEAD
HEART BAR 0.18 6690 8SE BIG BEAR LAKE
OAK GLEN FIRE 0.15 4664 3E YUCAIPA
BAILY CANYON 0.12 3388 3E DEVORE
WILDWOOD CANYON 0.12 2946 5NNE BEAUMONT
CREST PARK 0.11 5624 6WSW LAKE ARROWHEAD
OAK GLEN WATERSHED 0.11 4923 8NNE BEAUMONT
DEEP CREEK 0.08 4839 2NE LAKE ARROWHEAD
BIG PINE FLAT RAWS 0.02 6908 4NW BIG BEAR LAKE


.APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
MOJAVE FORKS DAM 0.07 2449
Don't know if this got posted here or not, but it is weather related and may bring some caution to some of you, especially one member who got a speeding ticket in May for going 95mph in/near Boise City OK and laughed about it in his/her blog.

Experienced Stormchaser runs stop sign; two dead
Quoting 344. Kenfa03:


I'm not qualified to determine the real side from the fake side. That's the reason I like reading both sides.
It's actually very easy to tell, usually.

The one claiming NOAA or NASA or the NAS or the world of science in general is cooking the books? That'll be your fake side, every time.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 344. Kenfa03:


I'm not qualified to determine the real side from the fake side. That's the reason I like reading both sides.
If you're not entirely sure how to tell truth from BS, the biggest disservice you can do yourself is to assume both 'sides' are equal and go from there. In every field, there are experts, and there are charlatans, and just as you wouldn't gamble your health by placing the medical opinion of a heart surgeon on a par with the mutterings of the self-described psychic next door, you shouldn't listen to the phonies and the liars. And where climate science is concerned, it's easy to spot who is who: those who acknowledge that the planet is warming due to our burning of fossil fuels and that something must be done about it are okay to listen to; anyone who tells you otherwise is best ignored.

Quoting 344. Kenfa03:


I'm not qualified to determine the real side from the fake side. That's the reason I like reading both sides.
Kenfa,

Do yourself a favor. Take some basic courses in climate science. You'll find that the fake side gets shredded the instant you begin to understand the actual science. If classwork is not something you can pursue, you should start with something like the Skeptical Science Newbie's Pages. They really can help you to up your game and avoid embarrassing yourself with being a regurgitator of the lies, prevarications and distortions promoted by the fossil fuel industry.

Keep in mind, the "denier" meme is dying. Or committing suicide, as indicated by the eye-opening review of corporate deceit.