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All-time July National Heat Records Fall on Three Continents

By: Jeff Masters 4:56 PM GMT on July 03, 2015

Brutally hot conditions fried portions of three continents during the first three days of July, and four nations have already set all-time July national heat records this month: the Netherlands, the U.K., Thailand, and Colombia. Below is a break-down of the July national heat records set so far this month, courtesy of weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera.


Figure 1. People cool off in the water fountains at Haarlemmerplein square in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, on Thursday, July 2, 2015. It was the warmest July day since records began in the Netherlands. (AP Photo/Margriet Faber).

Europe
The temperature in Maastricht, the Netherlands, hit 100.8°F (38.2°C) on July 2, setting an all-time July heat record for the nation. According to data from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, only two other hotter temperatures have been recorded in the nation: 101.5°F (38.6°C), on August 23, 1944 at Warnsveld, and 101.1°F (38.4°C), on June 27, 1947 at Maastricht. Thanks go to wunderground member cRRKampen for this info. According to to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, three stations in the Netherlands set all-time (any-day) highs Thursday:

Volkel (Netherlands), 36.9°C
Twenthe (Netherlands), 36.1°C
Leeuwarden (Netherlands), 34.0°C

Mr. Herrera notes that the Netherlands' all-time hottest temperature in 1944 was surely beaten on July 2, 2015, but all stations in the warmest area were closed many years ago. For example, the city of Maastricht itself, where Thursday's near-record 100.8°F (38.2°C) was recorded at the airport, is slightly warmer in its downtown (perhaps by 1°C) than at the airport station (which is more elevated), but the town station doesn't exist any longer. He also pointed out that Belgium's official all-time hottest temperature is 101.8°F (38.8°C), measured on June 27, 1947. However, according to the Belgian Meteorological Agency, RMI, this value was likely 2.2°C too high, due to improper measurement techniques. If we make this correction, Belgium's all-time hottest temperature was beaten on Thursday, as well as during the 2003 and 2006 heat waves. And in Paris, which measured its 2nd hottest temperature in its history on July 1 (39.7°C), the Paris Observatory had its grass watered (as it should be), but the grass was never watered for the record value of 40.4°C of 1947. This could have been the difference between the two measurements.

London's Heathrow Airport hit 98.1°F (36.7°C) on July 1, setting an all-time July heat record for the UK. Previous record: 97.7°F (36.5°C) in Wisley on July 19, 2006.

Asia
On July 2, the mercury hit 105.8°F (41.0°C) at Kamalasai, Thailand, setting a mark for the hottest July temperature ever recorded in that nation. Previous record: 104.4°F (40.2°C) at Uttaradit on July 12, 1977. Approximately half of all the reporting stations in Thailand set their all-time July monthly heat records on July 1 or July 2 this year. UPDATE: Today (Friday, July 3), Kamalasai, Thailand bested yesterday's July record with a reading of 106°F (41.1°C).

South America
On July 1, Urumitia, Colombia beat that nation's all-time July national heat record, with a 108°F (42.2°C) reading. Urumitia also set Colombia's all-time June heat record last week on June 27, with a 107.6°F (42.0°C) mark.

The heat continued in all these places on Friday. In Europe, the hottest temperatures were over Central France, where Clermont Ferrand hit 104°F (40°C). Meteo France has a color-coded map of current temperatures that show the heat wave in excellent detail. The most intense heat will shift eastwards over Germany and Luxembourg on Saturday and Sunday, into Poland and Southeast Europe on Monday, then over Germany, Switzerland, Austria, and Liechtenstein on Tuesday. High temperatures close to the highest values ever measured can be expected in all these locations. From wunderground's extremes page, we can see that these all-time national heat records may be challenged:

France's all-time hottest temperature is 111.4°F (44.1°C), measured on August 12, 2003 at Conqueyrac and Saint-Christol-Les-Ales Gard Department.

Germany's all-time hottest temperature is 104.5°F (40.3°C), measured on August 8, 2003 at Perl-Nennig, Saarland State.

Switzerland's all-time hottest temperature is 106.7°F (41.5°C), measured on August 11, 2003 at Grono.

Luxembourg's all-time hottest temperature is 104.9°F (40.5°C), measured on August 8, 2003 at Remich.

Poland's all-time hottest temperature is 104.4°F (40.2°C), measured on July 29, 1921 at Proszkow.

Austria's all-time hottest temperature is 104.9°F (40.5°C), measured on August 8, 2013 at Bad Deutsch-Altenburg.

Liechtenstein's all-time hottest temperature is 99.3°F (37.4°C), measured on August 13, 2003 at Ruggel.

Four tropical cyclones in the Pacific
Typhoon Watches continue in the Northern Mariana Islands on Guam and nearby Rota, Saipan, and Tinian islands for Tropical Storm Chan-hom, which is expected to pass through the islands Saturday evening (U.S. EDT time) as an intensifying Category 1 storm. Chan-hom had unexpected troubles on Friday, when it interacted with tropical disturbance 94W to its west. The upper-level outflow from 94W created high wind shear over Chan-hom, which tore away most of the typhoon's heavy thunderstorms and exposed the low-level circulation to view. Dan Lindsey of NOAA/CIRA put together an impressive closeup view of Chan-Hom's evolution on Friday from the Himawari-8 satellite's 0.5 km visible 2.5-min imagery. Here is a link to all the Himawari-8 satellite imagery.

The Philippines are watching Tropical Storm Linfa, which is expected to hit the northern island of Luzon over the weekend at tropical storm strength.

Newly-formed Tropical Depression Eleven is in the Marshall Islands, where it has already caused considerable trouble. According to hurricane scientist Mark Lander of the University of Guam, tropical cyclones in the Marshall Islands occur almost exclusively during El Niño years. So far this year, three tropical cyclones have caused damaging sea inundation in the islands. According to a source of his on Majuro Island:

"We [Majuro] got the weaker side.  Even so, this was the strongest West Wind I have seen here in about 18 years.  And believe it or not, it was not that strong [~25 G40 mph], just steady.  I see 2 fishing boats aground; another one partially sunk already, with a small and large yacht on the beach, and many power boats a mess. The Uliga dock area was a circus all day.  Also add lots of erosion, you can see the Mobil Oil fuel lines exposed. All the mooring failures for boats on the beach so far was due to chafing as we have had happy weather for years and I think few were ready.  If a storm of this nature had hit at King Tides, we would have had a national emergency."

Two areas of disturbed weather in the Central Pacific east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, Invest 95E and Invest 96E, are moving west-northwest towards Hawaii. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95E and 96E 5-day odds of development of 50% and 70%, respectively. 96E, the disturbance farther from Hawaii, may pose a long-range threat to Hawaii, as the Friday morning runs of the GFS and European models showed the storm coming close to the islands on Friday, July 10.

In the South Pacific, a rare winter tropical cyclone, Raquel, is drenching the Solomon Islands.

Mercifully, the Atlantic remains quiet, with none of the reliable tropical cyclone genesis models showing anything developing over the next five days.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone! I'll be back by Monday morning at the latest with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 471. PlazaRed:

This is interesting on the wildfire front from the Vancouver area.

As wildfires rage across parts of B.C., the resulting smoke and ash have spread over several communities, prompting residents to share their jaw-dropping photos of the eerily dark skies.

Link


Read down some of the comments and see the pictures, its a wonder Wxmod is not on this case already, no need to show pictures of China; its all happening in Vancouver.
Most of the smoke over Canada and the US is coming from Canadian fires with a much much smaller component from Alaska. There have about about 1.9 million acres burned in Alaska and nearly 3.5 million acres in Canada. The current trough and ridge pattern is ideal for pulling smoke out of the Canadian fires further south and east. The vast majority of fire in Alaska and Canada are uncontrolled and being let burn until they are put out by rain or snow. Even though the smoke is a pain to most people, and unhealthy for some, letting these fires burn is the best for everyone in the long run. Constantly controlling these fires allows more and more underbrush and non-natural growth to accumulate in the forests. When a fire does get started, it's hotter, bigger, and impossible to control with all the fuel available.
Quoting 486. sar2401:

It really depends on how strong this El Nino becomes and when the peak of the El Nino occurs. The last strong El Nino years of 1997-98, we didn't start to transition to a neutral condition until about May of 1998 and La Nina until about September. We didn't get our first named storm until July 27 and our first hurricane until August 22. After that, the numbers started to crank up, and we ended up with a slightly above average season despite the late start. Assuming this El Nino isn't any stronger, I'd expect 2016 to be somewhat like 1998 but it's really much too early to tell.


If, then, the El Nino and La Ninas follow each other in a sinusoidal pattern it doesn't seem the the entire x-axis is raised by them. The axis might be raised as part of climate warming but not, it seems, by Nino/Nina oscillations. Therefore, except for raising awareness of possible short term (months) issues for public safety issues, of what use is the tit for tat rabid discussion of whether the events will be medium, large, or jumbo?
Quoting 497. JustDucky251:



Getting rain and well spaced thunder here. Although the claps are not frequent they do rattle the windows. If the patch that has recently cleared Jackson moves east you may get lucky.
That's a pretty good clump of energy in MS that might make its way here although more likely it will go further south toward you. There are scattered thunderstorms developing west of Interstate 65 but none east of the interstate. This area has been pretty well worked over between the storms yesterday evening and this morning. It's still cloudy with a temperature of 82 so I'll need some breaks in the overcast plus initiation on the right outflow boundary to get things going over here.
505. vis0

Quoting 459. Patrap:

.....nuttin'




nuttin??!, why ya can make ice cubes...(too weird for this blog, try my blog cmmnt #118
Quoting 504. sar2401:

That's a pretty good clump of energy in MS that might make its way here although more likely it will go further south toward you. There are scattered thunderstorms developing west of Interstate 65 but none east of the interstate. This area has been pretty well worked over between the storms yesterday evening and this morning. It's still cloudy with a temperature of 82 so I'll need some breaks in the overcast plus initiation on the right outflow boundary to get things going over here.


Just got a severe t-storm warning for the counties north of here and over toward you due to the line I previously indicated.
507. vis0
Grothar here is a 1st, maybe call a growth over BO a blob® BEFORE it hits water, doesn't that blip that began on OK eastern edge look like a blob when its trying to form over water
R.E: drought P.R- post 498 by JLPR2;
Share your Depression;St Croix, DRY, DRY, DRY!
Watch some rain pass over water between us and St Thomas every few days, but Nada here.
The Island is like a Tinderbox... Scary!
Keep trying a Rain Dance; so far no luck:).

Opal..more storms coming to your area........................................
Quoting 502. JustDucky251:



If, then, the El Nino and La Ninas follow each other in a sinusoidal pattern it doesn't seem the the entire x-axis is raised by them. The axis might be raised as part of climate warming but not, it seems, by Nino/Nina oscillations. Therefore, except for raising awareness of possible short term (months) issues for public safety issues, of what use is the tit for tat rabid discussion of whether the events will be medium, large, or jumbo?
The pattern really isn't that clear cut. We've had an El Nino followed by five years of neutral or La Nina conditions and El Nino followed by a renewed El Nino. The changes brought on by one condition or the other can and have lasted for years. The relative strength of each condition is vitally important since we don't see really predictable weather changes unless there's at least a moderate condition, and a strong Nino or Nina is needed before the weather conditions are nearly 100% predictable. The effects on worldwide agriculture, droughts, and floods are much more severe with a strong El Nino, for example, than merely the weak variety. Agricultural commodity traders are paying lots of money to people who supposedly know what they are talking about to predict the strength of this El Nino. That's one of the reasons we see the Twitter battles about it. Oil companies want to know about the relative strength of El Nino and La Nina since each will affect oil production in the Gulf either negatively or positively. Arguing it out here is just a microcosm of what's going on in a much bigger world than this blog.
Quoting 508. Mango59:

R.E: drought P.R- post 498 by JLPR2;
Share your Depression;St Croix, DRY, DRY, DRY!
Watch some rain pass over water between us and St Thomas every few days, but Nada here.
The Island is like a Tinderbox... Scary!
Keep trying a Rain Dance; so far no luck:).




My father was in charge of a cloud seeding project on St. Croix in the winters of 1967-1968. (check out he January 1968 Nat Geo for proof). His team was based in Grapetree Bay with a radar trailer on the mountain (hill) north and east of Grapetree Bay. They were able to generate rain, but not enough to to show a significant statistical increase. They were however convinced that they did have a positive effect. The first night mother, my brother, and I went down to visit there was a 2" rainfall!
Quoting 506. JustDucky251:



Just got a severe t-storm warning for the counties north of here and over toward you due to the line I previously indicated.
Clarke County is a long way from me. So far, the storms west of I-65 aren't having a lot of luck making it past the interstate. The only area storms are moving east is over Escambia (AL) County and toward the Panhandle. If these storms can make it east of the interstate then there's a chance they could make it here.
Quoting 489. HurricaneAndre:

So we can write off this season huh.



yep
Front seems to have reached Potsdam and breeze is finally picking up here. I honestly welcome the front with open arms.
quoting

510. sar2401
2:15 PM CDT on July 05, 2015

Arguing it out here is just a microcosm of what's going on in a much bigger world than this blog.

That may be true, but they are wearing out the scroll wheel on my mouse.
Quoting 516. largeeyes:

Front seems to have reached Potsdam and breeze is finally picking up here. I honestly welcome the front with open arms.

Lol, I remember you after moving from Texas (right?) to Berlin complaining about our cold weather. This is now the revenge :-)


Fresh mesoscale discussion from Estofex concerning severe weather during the night is out, and I'm slightly north or just on the border of the cone - so probably no rain for me in Mainz :-( - but largeeyes in Berlin is in it. Good luck!


Current lightning (saved pic).
WOW the MJO is nearly off the charts on this one!

Ok, this interesting. The men got there forecast, what happened to the ladies, lol!



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
211 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...THE STEERING WINDS BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB
(APPROX 5000-18000 FT) WILL PUSH ANY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
ORLANDO NORTH BACK TOWARD THE COAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AROUND -9C AT 500MB AND INCREASING VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE SAME
LEVEL MAY PRODUCE STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE HAVING RESULTED
FROM ANY OF THE VARIOUS BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS...FROM
LAKE...ORANGE...NORTH BREVARD AND NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS
TREND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN FROM DEBRIS CLOUDS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

MON-WED...GFS/ECM MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS OF
KEEPING THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN A SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AFTER MID WEEK.
CONTINUED DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN CHANCES 30
PERCENT OR BETTER. MODELS(S) ALSO INDICATING THE STEERING WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY.
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE STORMS SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST TO
THE INTERIOR AS THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS.
You think I'll get any rain?
Quoting 514. sar2401:

Clarke County is a long way from me. So far, the storms west of I-65 aren't having a lot of luck making it past the interstate. The only area storms are moving east is over Escambia (AL) County and toward the Panhandle. If these storms can make it east of the interstate then there's a chance they could make it here.
Quoting 519. GTstormChaserCaleb:

WOW the MJO is nearly off the charts on this one!


if the MJO can stay in quadrants 1 and 2, the atlantic might have a chance to crack 10 storms this year and possibly a major or 2 depending on how bad the sinking air and SAL is.
Cloud moving towards Berlin now is otherworldly....just one straight line across the sky. No wind. No lightning. No thunder. Just darkness, stillness and heat.
And good news is I may stay up a while to catch the USA game. LIke I said, there is a pretty ominous cloud just showing now....like a 12km high tsumami. No lightning, thunder or anything. It's one of the stranger things I have seen weather wise.
Quoting 518. barbamz:


Fresh mesoscale discussion from Estofex concerning severe weather during the night is out, and I'm slightly north or just on the border of the cone - so probably no rain for me in Mainz :-( - but our member largeeyes in Berlin is in it. Good luck!


Current lightning (saved pic).
too far out in time but at the end of run GFS has a Low in the gulf by tex/mex............
Quoting 516. largeeyes:

Front seems to have reached Potsdam and breeze is finally picking up here. I honestly welcome the front with open arms.
Quoting 524. largeeyes:

And good news is I may stay up a while to catch the USA game. LIke I said, there is a pretty ominous cloud just showing now....like a 12km high tsumami. No lightning, thunder or anything. It's one of the stranger things I have seen weather wise.

It's probably the ice shield of the storms to come - or already the shelf cloud ... (I've edit my post above; have a look, lol).
Quoting 490. hydrus:




The tropical Atlantic is the most dry and stable I've seen in ages, I'm pleasantly surprised only a few places in Florida have drought. Last time El Nino signals were this strong, and high pressure dominated FLorida much of the summer like this summer so far, most of the state was in severe drought with fires raging by early July. Meteorologically speaking we should be in severe drought, but only SE FL and NE have drought thankfully. Some of us in West Central and SW FL have managed to be substantially above average.
Quoting 527. Jedkins01:



The tropical Atlantic is the most dry and stable I've seen in ages, I'm pleasantly surprised only a few places in Florida have drought. Last time El Nino signals were this strong, and high pressure dominated FLorida much of the summer like this summer so far, most of the state was in severe drought with fires raging by early July. Meteorologically speaking we should be in severe drought, but only SE FL and NE have drought thankfully. Some of us in West Central and SW FL have managed to be substantially above average.
I have a book titled " The Climate and weather of Florida." It is a great book, and covers with detail the past droughts , severe weather, hurricanes, and main main summertime patterns. The authors said that there are several summertime weather patterns that affect the state. I can remember many weather events in S.W. Florida decades ago, and there were some very dry times. The early 1970,s drought was probably one the worst Florida drought event recorded there. The book is worth the $7.16...Here is a link....
Quoting 480. Tazmanian:



yep 100% agreed
Did you see Webberweathers earlier post? Lots of info to the contrary.
Haha...North Carolina but ya, same thing. There was a tornado near my house about 6 months before I moved here. I'd say it is a shelf cloud that just rolled over. Wind has picked up dramatically, the "tsunami" look has now given way to lots of lightning. Off of my terrace I see mother nature having quite a light show compared to Helena Fischer's....it's going to be an interesting exit from Olympiastadion.

Quoting 518. barbamz:


Lol, I remember you after moving from Texas (right?) to Berlin complaining about our cold weather. This is now the revenge :-)


Fresh mesoscale discussion from Estofex concerning severe weather during the night is out, and I'm slightly north or just on the border of the cone - so probably no rain for me in Mainz :-( - but largeeyes in Berlin is in it. Good luck!


Current lightning (saved pic).
Chan-hom has become much better organized over the past 24 hours, with the formation of an inner core (although there is still some misalignment issues with the low- and mid-level circulations) and increasingly impressive outflow pattern. After backing off some yesterday, the GFS/ECMWF/and HWRF all indicate that Chan-hom will become a Category 5-equivalent over the coming days, and all three models show a pressure below 915 millibars. Residents in the Japanese Islands and mainland China should keep their eyes peeled on the progress of this system.

Complete deluge here in Longwood. Just incredibly heavy rains.
Serious flooding could become a concern as these storms are dropping over 5" of rain in areas. A friend up in Deltona said she has 4.76" in the rain gauge so far.
Quoting 521. TCweatherman:

You think I'll get any rain?
Yes, the storms are headed in your direction now. They've weakened below severe levels but there still should some lightning and rain left. There are more storms behind these so you have an excellent chance of decent rain.
Please stop it!
Quoting 532. StormTrackerScott:

Complete deluge here in Longwood. Just incredibly heavy rains.
I hate you!
Quoting 529. Kenfa03:

Did you see Webberweathers earlier post? Lots of info to the contrary.



i dont care please do not quote me about it
Hope I am wrong, but I fear something will happen at Olympiastadion in this storm. The concert seems to be continuing on. Severe weather + 70k in a stadium = trouble.
Perfect outflow.
Quoting 517. JustDucky251:

quoting

510. sar2401
2:15 PM CDT on July 05, 2015

Arguing it out here is just a microcosm of what's going on in a much bigger world than this blog.

That may be true, but they are wearing out the scroll wheel on my mouse.
LOL. Your poor mouse will survive. This is the biggest widespread weather event in 28 years so I really expect it will remain a topic of discussion at least through the fall. Then we'll argue about which weather event was caused or not caused by El Nino. :-)
chan horn could be a close call for korea
Quoting 475. SLU:



It was the last entertaining Atlantic season which also included one of your most favorite MDR storms


Igor was a beauty to track and we've never seen anything remotely close to it in the MDR since then.Which was 5 years ago,and I still believe that he was a 160mph hurricane but the HH don't fly out that far.We will not be seeing his name return to the list next year as he is now in the hall of retirement.A "one time storm" as they call it.lol
Quoting 530. largeeyes:

Off of my terrace I see mother nature having quite a light show compared to Helena Fischer's....it's going to be an interesting exit from Olympiastadion.

Link to the wiki-article about Helene Fischer - currently German's queen of popularity, lol.
Here a link to her most famous song "Breathless through the night" - very apt for the last hot nights here! - with English subitles (although the original meaning in German sometimes is a bit more slippery than the english translation): link.

Cold front just passed me in Mainz withouth any storms or rain, unfortunately. But at least a sudden drop of several degrees Celsius - all windows are open now. Lovely!

Postscript: and okay, I'll try to remember you're from NC, lol, sorry!
Quoting 522. wunderweatherman123:

if the MJO can stay in quadrants 1 and 2, the atlantic might have a chance to crack 10 storms this year and possibly a major or 2 depending on how bad the sinking air and SAL is.



what dos strong EL Nino do you not under stan things are really shut down out there in the atlantic with strong wind shear we could be looking at the lowest # of storms ever in in fact with wind shear being so strong out there right now wish is like the middle of winter i really see nothing for the rest of july and even the rest of the season the atlantic is not the place this year if you want too track storms you need too look else where like the W PAC wish is on fire


so with strong wind shear the MDR shut down strong SAL and strong wind shear and trade winds and the carben sea yep good luck in trying too track a storm this year in the atlantic we will be lucky if we make it too 5 name storms
Addition to post '543: Just saw in a tweet that this huge concert of a certain Helene Fisher was discontinued due to severe weather in Berlin.
I honestly hate that song, not so much as my wife hates hearing me start singing it....ATEEEEEMLOOOOOSSSSS DURRRRRCCCHHHHH DIE NAAAACHT. Ahem.....

Anyways, a few gusts and a LOT of lightning...not much else here in Berlin...but WILKOMMEN cold front!
Quoting 543. barbamz:


Link to the wiki-article about Helene Fischer - currently German's queen of popularity, lol.
Here a link to her most famous song "Breathless through the night" - very apt for the last hot nights here! - with English subitles (although the original meaning in German sometimes is a bit more slippery than the english translation): link.

Cold front just passed me in Mainz withouth any storms or rain, unfortunately. But at least a sudden drop of several degrees Celsius - all windows are open now. Lovely!
Quoting 545. barbamz:

Addition to post '543: Just saw in a tweet that this huge concert of a certain Helene Fisher was discontinued due to severe weather in Berlin.


Well, the spotlights are still going but that is great news to hear!
548. JLPR2
PR's precipitation anomaly map so far in 2015.
It's interesting to see the contrast between the west and east half of the island.

Quoting 533. StormTrackerScott:

Serious flooding could become a concern as these storms are dropping over 5" of rain in areas. A friend up in Deltona said she has 4.76" in the rain gauge so far.

Quite impressive. Very intense and even severe storms are "zippering" their way down the east coast seabreeze NE of the Orlando area while the west coast seabreeze is moving inland well west of town. Additional storms are developing in-between. I am waiting for the east coast seabreeze to reach out longitude and hopefully the storms will then develop right over us as they have to our NE. We could miss out completely again. But, we could also have a really nasty storm. I'm rooting for a really bad thunderstorm with lots of heavy rain.
A very serious flood set up for the orlando area already major flooding ongoing in SW Volusia County.

Quoting 544. Tazmanian:




what dos strong EL Nino do you not under stan things are really shut down out there in the atlantic with strong wind shear we could be looking at the lowest # of storms ever in in fact with wind shear being so strong out there right now wish is like the middle of winter i really see nothing for the rest of july and even the rest of the season the atlantic is not the place this year if you want too track storms you need too look else where like the W PAC wish is on fire


so with strong wind shear the MDR shut down strong SAL and strong wind shear and trade winds and the carben sea yep good luck in trying too track a storm this year in the atlantic we will be lucky if we make it too 5 name storms
Sorry Taz we have already beaten the 1914 season which only had 1 named storm, but I agree with you I'll be really surprised if we get more than 10 named storms this season, just based on the conditions you, Scott, Webber, & Jed just to name a few have mentioned.
Quoting 535. Gearsts:

Please stop it!

I have an idea why don't we take a bunch of rescue helicopters over there and drop tons of water on the Saharan Desert to create a condensation nuclei? Maybe that'll get the Atlantic going. ;)
Some totals over 7" now! Just unreal the amount of rain. Looks like September 2014 is occurring.
Quoting 553. StormTrackerScott:

Some totals over 7" now! Just unreal the amount of rain. Looks like September 2014 is occurring.


I'd be satisfied with 7" of rain today:) Then we would have July just about covered!
Yep just a few sprinkles now, feels like fall.
Quoting 534. sar2401:

Yes, the storms are headed in your direction now. They've weakened below severe levels but there still should some lightning and rain left. There are more storms behind these so you have an excellent chance of decent rain.
Quoting 554. HurrMichaelOrl:



I'd be satisfied with 7" of rain today:) Then we would have July just about covered!


Literally getting drilled right now over 2" and counting
Quoting 533. StormTrackerScott:

Serious flooding could become a concern as these storms are dropping over 5" of rain in areas. A friend up in Deltona said she has 4.76" in the rain gauge so far.

I wouldn't doubt it. The rain, wind, and lightning have been relentless for around 45 minutes.
Quoting 557. StormTrackerScott:



Literally getting drilled right now over 2" and counting
we got a whole Line of strong storms coming from the gulf here in a short while


Interesting set up over FL right now. You have the usual sea breeze collision producing very strong thunderstorms, plus some storms coming in from the Gulf. Nothing so far for me today but as these storms approach from the Gulf, things could get interesting.
I can hear the land crying in the caymans it's so hot and dusty and dry.....it's a nasty climate to say the least
It only appears to be getting increasingly arid and the air increasingly full of dust.
It may rain on occasion but climatically things are changing. I don't see rain until the iron wall of high pressure thousands of miles away dissipates. All you can do this time of year is leave.....no wonder those with means get off the Island.
Looks like Skypony will get hit also.
No mjo can crack that Bermuda high and the Sahara is winning

Quoting 522. wunderweatherman123:

if the MJO can stay in quadrants 1 and 2, the atlantic might have a chance to crack 10 storms this year and possibly a major or 2 depending on how bad the sinking air and SAL is.
looks like FL is getting PM thunderstorms with this a little bit of rain this like a norml thunderstorm CA gets
WOW trees are swaying and rain is so hard you can't see squat outside.
No rain here in Winter Park yet. It has looked imminent for about 20 minutes. Radar now showing storms just to our west that were moving east toward us now pulling back west. Storms to our northeast moving south. Looking a little bare in-between, but I'm hoping it will fill in.
568. vis0

Quoting 467. Webberweather53:

The following are the ERSSTv4 & Reynolds OISSTv2 2000-present ONI data based on the new & incomplete 1986-2015 base period. Even though this version of ERSSTv4 w/ the 1981-2010 base period is currently being use operationally,...


by early next year, the NDJ 1999-NDJ 2016 ERSSTv4 data will be replaced with this new version I'm presenting below. The latter of the two datasets (OISSTv2) is used in the CPC's weekly ENSO updates & I've also noticed over relatively short record, the variance in the higher resolution, OISSTv2 satellite data is about 25% higher than ERSST, which likely reflects this dataset's capability to pick up on smaller-scale variance in ENSO that is often missed or smeared out in ERSST. I will be regularly updating these preliminary versions of the 21st century ONI until they become fully operational in January 2016. The 2000-2004 JFM tri-monthly anomalies presented from both datasets are permanent and will not change w/ the addition of subsequent base periods or modifications to the high frequency filter that's used in the last few months of ERSST...

ERSSTv4 2000-Present Tri-Monthly Oceanic Nino Index values with the 1986-2015 base period (1986-2014 is used in tri-monthlies w/ missing data from 2015)



High resolution Reynolds OISSTv2 2000-Present Tri-Monthly Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) values with the 1986-2015 base period (1986-2014 is used for tri-monthlies with missing data from 2015)

Quoting 512. Webberweather53wannabeinhisdreams (vis0)


The following are webberweather53 graphics created through webberweather53 hard research.

i either::


A) RUINED IT!!!
B) RUINED IT...but with nice added colours.
C) just bought a new box of Crayola® markers and decided to highlight the differences as to each monthly value of one chart versus the other when it comes to cooler versus warmer as follows::

The numbers with vertically striped B&W background are ties. (that part was easy)

Orange numbers or backgrounds are warmer that its matching period on the other graphic

Cyan numbers or backgrounds are cooler that its matching period on the other graphic

Numbers left unscathed (black on a white background) where months where the trend of the graphics did not lean towards the same direction. Meaning the numbers have to both be going into webberweather53's original RED OR BLUE to be compared and highlighted by my colours or both be in webberweather53's black foreground colour to be compared.

D) its like adding a mustache to the Mona Lisa

E) its like rubbing off the paint that hides Mona Lisa's mustache.

observations i'd dig into is why of the months webberweather53's graphs showed a RED OR BLUE LEAN that month in the other graphic did not have a RED OR BLUE lean as;
FMA2003, JFM2005, FMA2005, MJJ2008, JJA2009, MJJ2010, FMA2012, SON2014.

The last SON2014 seems out of place as all others began or occurred in the 1st half of the Gregorian Calendar , showing the weird El Niño that is lurking behind Truth or Consequences Curtain #1, Curtain #2 or Curtain #3 ...i hope for California's sake nature does not pick the curtain with a monkey taking a shower behind it.

Apology to webberweather53
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC069-095-052200-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0056.150705T2124Z-150705T2200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
524 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 522 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR APOPKA AND
ZELLWOOD...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...OCOEE...WINTER GARDEN...
WINDERMERE...BAY LAKE....AND PLACES NEAR THE ATTRACTIONS AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

Over a foot of standing water in the backyard and it is still pouring like mad. Water is now in the sunroom.
Quoting 570. StormTrackerScott:

Over a foot of standing water in the backyard and it is still pouring like mad. Water is now in the sunroom.
wow and more coming to you in awhile scott
5.85" so far and it is still coming down. Also storms are merging on Orlando.

Quoting 552. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I have an idea why don't we take a bunch of rescue helicopters over there and drop tons of water on the Saharan Desert to create a condensation nuclei? Maybe that'll get the Atlantic going. ;)


Haha, imagine if the Sahara wasn't there? I would dread to think just how active the Atlantic would be if it wasn't for the Saharan dust!
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
511 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FLZ045-144-052215-
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY FL-ORANGE FL-
511 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE AND WESTERN
ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 508 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
LAKE APOPKA AND ZELLWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. OTHER STORMS WERE
INTENSIFYING JUST SOUTH OF THERE.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... APOPKA...OCOEE...WINTER
GARDEN...WINDERMERE...BAY LAKE...AND THE ATTRACTIONS AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...
ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING.

&&

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES AT MID AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
INTERACTS WITH LAKE BREEZES...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SOME STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG OVER
INTERIOR VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...LAKE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES
THROUGH 7 PM...CONTAINING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. STORMS ARE
SLOW MOVING...GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. MOVE
INDOORS TO SAFETY IF SKIES LOOK THREATENING OR IF YOU HEAR THUNDER.


Quoting 535. Gearsts:

Please stop it!

2015 hurricane season cancelled.
Quoting 544. Tazmanian:




what dos strong EL Nino do you not under stan things are really shut down out there in the atlantic with strong wind shear we could be looking at the lowest # of storms ever in in fact with wind shear being so strong out there right now wish is like the middle of winter i really see nothing for the rest of july and even the rest of the season the atlantic is not the place this year if you want too track storms you need too look else where like the W PAC wish is on fire


so with strong wind shear the MDR shut down strong SAL and strong wind shear and trade winds and the carben sea yep good luck in trying too track a storm this year in the atlantic we will be lucky if we make it too 5 name storms


There's a misconception here. Even during El Nino years, there's ALWAYS a period of favorable conditions for storm formation, it's just usually a lot more ephemeral than in neutral/La Nina years. In fact, many El Nino years feature at least one hurricane in the Gulf, which makes sense when you think about what El Nino does.
we haven't had a REAL el nino since 09 but the past 3 hurricane seasons have been non el nino yet have been relatively weak with the amount of hurricanes and powerful storms. This year the enso is a moderate to strong el nino. what's the reason why the last 3 seasons have been "weak" despite a non el nino enso. Why so much sinking air and high pressures?
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
547 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FLC069-095-052200-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-150705T2200Z/
LAKE FL-ORANGE FL-
547 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES...

AT 543 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR OCOEE AND
WINDERMERE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AROUND 535 PM EDT IN
VICINITY OF OCOEE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... APOPKA...WINTER GARDEN...BAY
LAKE...AND PLACES NEAR THE ATTRACTIONS AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

Finally.
Quoting 582. wunderweatherman123:

we haven't had a REAL el nino since 09 but the past 3 hurricane seasons have been non el nino yet have been relatively weak with the amount of hurricanes and powerful storms. This year the enso is a moderate to strong el nino. what's the reason why the last 3 seasons have been "weak" despite a non el nino enso. Why so much sinking air and high pressures?


Cold AMO probably. I personally think it began in 2012. Gray/Klotzbach are coming around to this idea now, too.
Over 6" of rain here so far and its still coming down hard but atleast I can see outside now.
Quoting 544. Tazmanian:




what dos strong EL Nino do you not under stan things are really shut down out there in the atlantic with strong wind shear we could be looking at the lowest # of storms ever in in fact with wind shear being so strong out there right now wish is like the middle of winter i really see nothing for the rest of july and even the rest of the season the atlantic is not the place this year if you want too track storms you need too look else where like the W PAC wish is on fire


so with strong wind shear the MDR shut down strong SAL and strong wind shear and trade winds and the carben sea yep good luck in trying too track a storm this year in the atlantic we will be lucky if we make it too 5 name storms
Hi Taz, an El Nino is not the end all for a hurricane season. This season according to the experts, will be an in close season, which will not be as badly effected by a Nino.
Orlando area is smothered and cover now.

rain rain rain
delicious glorious rain
wet leaves and happy ducks
and dripping trees

oh thank you rain gods
thank you
591. vis0

Quoting 487. sar2401:

Good, I'm glad you found your remote. Now, where did I put my car keys?
Lets see the choices::

a) ya don't have a car
b) since the 1970s you hot wire** yer car (kids its not hotwire site)
c) ya left 'em in the car and Grothar is 'bout to get into yer car ...STOP, grab that old man...oh wait its SE/Florida 200,000 gray haired men were just grabbed....incl ME!
d) i forgot??? what was the question.

An uncle in Puerto Rico would change every wire colour coming out of his dashboard. He only knew which was which (had great memory) 2 to 4 times a week (when i visited for the summer months of June/Jul/Aug) you'd hear an "ARGHHHHHHHHH" just behind his home, when some guy though it was an easy steal, but they'd match up the wrong wires. Could've been the original car alarm.
592. flsky
Nice rain in Ponce Inlet atm. Lovely, but I'm guessing the people at the track aren't very happy.

Quoting 589. StormTrackerScott:

Orlando area is smothered and cover now.


Quoting 561. tampabaymatt:



Interesting set up over FL right now. You have the usual sea breeze collision producing very strong thunderstorms, plus some storms coming in from the Gulf. Nothing so far for me today but as these storms approach from the Gulf, things could get interesting.

Waiting to see if it misses Citrus Park/Carrollwood again.
Would someone please post the Mobile radar? Interesting bow echo heading my way.
595. flsky
Looks like you're, in for it for some time to come. Don't you have retention ponds in your neighborhood? Theyre all over the place up here.

Quoting 589. StormTrackerScott:

Orlando area is smothered and cover now.


A screenshot from the ISS showing the arrival of the Progress rocket, the moon, and also the vast clouds of smoke from the wildfires in the Pacific Northwest.



Thanks Largo.
It looks like we'll end up with about 1.5", not too shabby. I am thrilled. Hopefully even more tomorrow.
Holy Cow! What a thunderstorm just came through near the Orlando airport 2.1 inches of rain in about an hour. Lots of lightning, thunder shaking the house.

Normal for central florida summer storms, but still impressive.
The last game. Let's go USA!

602. flsky
Aren't you glad this isn't headed into the GOM?

Quoting 539. Gearsts:

Perfect outflow.

Quoting 598. PensacolaDoug:

Thanks Largo.
ok good luck up there
Quoting 532. StormTrackerScott:

Complete deluge here in Longwood. Just incredibly heavy rains.


Nice! A no show here on the west coast as all the gulf activity collapsed as it approached the coast, if this was earlier in the day we probably would have seen some nice action. But the air has the tendency to sink in the coastal waters during the later afternoon behind the sea breeze circulation.
Interesting outflow boundary moving SE.

Quoting 602. flsky:

Aren't you glad this isn't headed into the GOM?


I'm sad that is not headed for PR at 2mph.
Will be an interesting week and first half of July...





















The temperature at Karlsruhe, Germany reportedly reached 40.8 C / 105.4 F on July 5, which could be the new national record all-time hottest temperature, although the Karlruhe weather station is no longer an official station.
Quoting 586. StormTrackerScott:

Over 6" of rain here so far and its still coming down hard but atleast I can see outside now.

We easily got 6 inches here in Apopka/Wekiva, FL. Topped off the pool nicely!
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SUN 05 JULY 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JULY 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR 08/0000Z AROUND A CENTRAL PACIFIC
SYSTEM IF IT IS A POTENTIAL THREAT TO HAWAII.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:
A. POSSIBLE FIX MISSION FOR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SYSTEM AT
08/1800Z NEAR 14.5N 143.0W IF IT DEVELOPS.
B. ANOTHER POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 09/0000Z
Arctic temps warmer than Miami? We have a serious methane problem!

Current Arctic Weather Conditions

According to Arctic News, as of July 2nd, “While the media gives wide coverage to the heat waves that have been hitting populous countries such as India, Pakistan, the U.S., Spain and France recently, less attention is given to heat waves hitting the Arctic.”

Furthermore, “The heat waves that hit Alaska and Russia recently are now followed up by a heat wave in East Siberia… a location well within the Arctic Circle… temperatures as high as 37.1°C (98.78°F) were recorded on July 2, 2015.”

And, even more, “With temperatures as high as the 37.1°C (98.78°F) recorded on July 2, 2015, huge melting can be expected where there still is sea ice in the waters off the coast of Siberia, while the waters where the sea ice is already gone will warm up rapidly. Note that the waters off the coast of Siberia are less than 50 m (164 ft.) deep, so warming can quickly extend all the way down to the seabed, that can contain enormous amounts of methane in the form of free gas and hydrates.”

Also, on July 1, 2015, a temperature of 36°C (96.8°F) was recorded near the Kolyma River that flows into the East Siberian Sea.

The Arctic is hotter than Miami!

Somehow or other, 98°F in the Arctic makes the world seem upside down/sideways. Is it?


Link
Good night greetings with an update on post #493: According to German tabloid Bild Zeitung a meteorologist of German national weather service DWD confirmed the new official national heat record of 40,3C (104,5F) in Kitzingen/Bavaria this evening.

Some nice pics from today's severe storms with even tennis ball sized hail on SevereWeatherEurope.


Pic with cloud top temperatures this afternoon in Germany at 6pm, showing the storms (mcs) over northern Germany. Source.

Weather alerts in Germany are about to expire now. Although it's too early to get the whole picture I've got the impression that today's severe weather by far didn't reach the level of calamity of last year's pentecost storms in June. All the ingredients for something catastrophic were there for sure, but the procedure of the events somehow didn't follow the expectations of models and meteorologists, starting with a row of very early and at that time unexpected storms in northern Germany this morning.

Although without a storm, temps at my place in Mainz dropped from nearly 38C (100F) to chilling 21C (70F) in the last couple of hours - *shiver*, lol - and will further drop this night.

Next days are forecast to be quite a rollercoaster, unfortunately mostly dry for my place:



Quite complicated surface map for tomorrow (so many names!).

Good night and a nice start into the new week!
Quoting 609. KDDFlorida:


We easily got 6 inches here in Apopka/Wekiva, FL. Topped off the pool nicely!


About 1.75" here in Winter Park. 6"? Geez.
Storms approaching Melbourne area starting to weaken :( little bit of thunder and light rain, that's it. Typical.
A complicated weather pattern this evening. On the water vapor loop, it looks like the low that has been anchoring this persistent trough over the SE is starting to move NE. As it does so, it's drawing in some dry air at the mid levels that's starting to transition down to the surface. This has created a dry slot right Alabama and mst of Georgia and MIssissippi. This has absolutely crushed the convection from earlier today with most of the remaining convection only right on and over the coast and eastern Louisiana. The drier air also got into the back end of the sea breeze storms in Florida and actually helped them intensify. I don't know what this means for tomorrow. In theory, as the low continues to move NE, it should drag the trough over Alabama and create more convection by early morning. However, if the low keeps tapping into this flow of deep dry air, the convection may not be able to get started or sustain itself. Except for the showers this morning, I got nothing else, and some pretty strong convection that was headed this way has been wiped out. As I learned a long time ago, 'Northwest flow, weatherman's woe", and it's proving true again.

Mass destruction...

Quoting 614. HurrMichaelOrl:



About 1.75" here in Winter Park. 6"? Geez.


6.22" at my location. 5" to 6" all over my area.
619. beell
Quoting 612. ColoradoBob1:

Arctic temps warmer than Miami? We have a serious methane problem!

Current Arctic Weather Conditions

According to Arctic News, as of July 2nd, %u201CWhile the media gives wide coverage to the heat waves that have been hitting populous countries such as India, Pakistan, the U.S., Spain and France recently, less attention is given to heat waves hitting the Arctic.%u201D

Furthermore, %u201CThe heat waves that hit Alaska and Russia recently are now followed up by a heat wave in East Siberia%u2026 a location well within the Arctic Circle%u2026 temperatures as high as 37.1C (98.78F) were recorded on July 2, 2015.%u201D

And, even more, %u201CWith temperatures as high as the 37.1C (98.78F) recorded on July 2, 2015, huge melting can be expected where there still is sea ice in the waters off the coast of Siberia, while the waters where the sea ice is already gone will warm up rapidly. Note that the waters off the coast of Siberia are less than 50 m (164 ft.) deep, so warming can quickly extend all the way down to the seabed, that can contain enormous amounts of methane in the form of free gas and hydrates.%u201D

Also, on July 1, 2015, a temperature of 36C (96.8F) was recorded near the Kolyma River that flows into the East Siberian Sea.

The Arctic is hotter than Miami!

Somehow or other, 98F in the Arctic makes the world seem upside down/sideways. Is it?


Link


Not to negate the intent of your post, Bob (a warming arctic), but is the source of the 98F temp inside the Arctic Circle taken from nullschool.net graphic or elsewhere? The "recorded" temp matches the graphic...exactly.

Your link leads to arctic-news.blogspot.com containing a nullschool graphic depicting same.

From the blogspot "Arctic News":

The image below shows a location well inside the Arctic Circle where temperatures as high as 37.1C (98.78F) were recorded on July 2, 2015. The top panel shows temperatures, while the bottom panel also shows the depth of the Arctic Ocean and the location of the Gakkel Ridge, in between the northern tip of Greenland and the Laptev Sea.

617....Stay strong sar. And don't answer questions directed at Grothar! :)
well dat was interesting...

Quoting 602. flsky:

Aren't you glad this isn't headed into the GOM?


Honestly, no.
Quoting 613. barbamz:

Good night greetings with an update on post #493: According to German tabloid Bild Zeitung a meteorologist of German national weather service DWD confirmed the new official national heat record of 40,3C (104,5F) in Kitzingen/Bavaria this evening.

Some nice pics from today's severe storms with even tennis ball sized hail on SevereWeatherEurope.


Pic with cloud top temperatures this afternoon in Germany at 6pm, showing the storms (mcs) over northern Germany. Source.

Weather alerts in Germany are about to expire now. Although it's too early to get the whole picture I've got the impression that today's severe weather by far didn't reach the level of calamity of last year's pentecost storms in June. All the ingredients for something catastrophic were there for sure, but the procedure of the events somehow didn't follow the expectations of models and meteorologists, starting with a row of very early and at that time unexpected storms in northern Germany this morning.

Although without a storm, temps at my place in Mainz dropped from nearly 38C (100F) to chilling 21C (70F) in the last couple of hours - *shiver*, lol - and will further drop this night.

Next days are forecast to be quite a rollercoaster, unfortunately mostly dry for my place:



Quite complicated surface map for tomorrow (so many names!).

Good night and a nice start into the new week!
I'm glad to hear you've cooled off. I'm also glad this wasn't the time I had chosen to visit Germany. :-) I was looking at the high/low graph. The lows don't seem to make sense for the highs. As the highs increase, it looks like the lows decrease as well, which is the opposite of what I'd expect. Are highs and lows taken from midnight to midnight as they are here?
Great performance by the USWNT today. World Cup Champions!



Now I'll get back to weather. :)
625. JRRP
meanwhile the atlantic


ok..... no problem... see you next year
Quoting 624. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Great performance by the USWNT today. World Cup Champions!



Now I'll get back to weather. :)
USA!!
USA!!
USA!!
USA!!
USA!!
Quoting 625. JRRP:

meanwhile the atlantic


ok..... no problem... see you next year
WTF
Quoting 620. GeoffreyWPB:

617....Stay strong sar. And don't answer questions directed at Grothar! :)
Who?

619. beell

Nice work.
I have little doubt that those parts of Siberia made 37.1°C (98.78°F) . That spot is about as far north as Barrow, Alaska. But as arrow says it's pretty far from the sea. How deep is permafrost there ? 2 or 3 hundred meters ?

619. beell

Thanks again for targeting the spot. I'll make a point to watch it the rest of the fire season.
630. vis0
La.Miss.Pan getting activity & as STS stated earlier Florida's twist got hit, now Central both areas have wannba be tropical looks to them, lets see if this holds up once over water andf if the areras stay near to the coastline where less sheer is on the menu.
631. JRRP
Quoting 627. Gearsts:

WTF

el atlantico se burla de nosotros
Quoting 631. JRRP:


el atlantico se burla de nosotros
LOL
633. vis0

Quoting 573. StormTrackerScott:

5.85" so far and it is still coming down. Also storms are merging on Orlando.





The Greenland melt page note the melt graph -

Link

Note how we've blown through 2 standard deviations like a volcano.
Quoting 625. JRRP:

meanwhile the atlantic


ok..... no problem... see you next year

Let's wait for August- could be like 2009.
Weather! If it doesn't crumple against the Fallon Storm-Killing Field of Dryness, we've got a lovely storm coming.

Wednesday looks to be another stormy day - it was my tentative travel date to visit Mom, but I'm not stupid. My tires are legal, but not new, and I'm not going to be hitting the road in that weather. Nuh uh.
Quoting 624. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Great performance by the USWNT today. World Cup Champions!



Now I'll get back to weather. :)
And now....back to real football.......................................... ............................Sorry :-)
638. beell
Quoting 629. ColoradoBob1:


619. beell

Nice work.
I have little doubt that those parts of Siberia made 37.1%uFFFDC (98.78%uFFFDF) . That spot is about as far north as Barrow, Alaska. But as arrow says it's pretty far from the sea. How deep is permafrost there ? 2 or 3 hundred meters ?

619. beell

Thanks again for targeting the spot. I'll make a point to watch it the rest of the fire season.


Just looking for a credible source of the observation, Bob-no thanks necessary. The "nice work" was from your link, not me.
Quoting 636. nonblanche:

Weather! If it doesn't crumple against the Fallon Storm-Killing Field of Dryness, we've got a lovely storm coming.

Wednesday looks to be another stormy day - it was my tentative travel date to visit Mom, but I'm not stupid. My tires are legal, but not new, and I'm not going to be hitting the road in that weather. Nuh uh.
That cell just going north of Yerington is headed toward you but it's starting to weaken. I'll be surprised if it can hold together until it gets to you. There's a cell directly west of you but it's stationary and looks like it's going to rain itself out over desert. I just got off the phone with my brother and he said all the storms missed him today. He was able to turn off the A/C and open all the windows yesterday, so that's not bad for the howling desert in July. :-)
Insane storm here in Cape Coral (SW FL) for the past hour. In the six years I've been here I've never seen a rainy season like this one, so far. Even the eternal "hole in the sky" over the nearby Caloosahatchee has not been able to divert the rain away from me this year. Usually my garden patch doesn't start its rainy season until the last week of June, but this year I started getting regular rain the very first week of June. Tonight, though, is crazy.

BTW, just returned from July 4th get-together 70 miles north up at Casey Key, where it's just dry as a bone. Clearly parts of So. FL keep getting rain and other parts keep Not getting rain!

Anyway, I'd wanted to save up until I could afford a serious personal weather station, but curiosity over how much rain is really falling each day is just too much -- I'll snag a cheap-o rain gauge next weekend and get it installed.

Now I just need to move where it rains like this for most of the year! ;-)
641. vis0

Quoting 621. Patrap:

well dat was interesting...


REPLAY::



Quoting 639. sar2401:

That cell just going north of Yerington is headed toward you but it's starting to weaken. I'll be surprised if it can hold together until it gets to you. There's a cell directly west of you but it's stationary and looks like it's going to rain itself out over desert. I just got off the phone with my brother and he said all the storms missed him today. He was able to turn off the A/C and open all the windows yesterday, so that's not bad for the howling desert in July. :-)


That one directly west just yielded a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Fernley. Fernley's been getting hammered a lot, hence our full ditches. :) It's the Yerington storm that was looking ominous an hour ago, but unless (like yesterday's weather) these storms are preceded by days of broken storms and virga, pumping up the PW numbers, they just crumple like a Yugo at Rattlesnake Raceway.
Quoting 607. pablosyn:

Will be an interesting week and first half of July...






















RIP 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Quoting 426. Sfloridacat5:

Every day late afternoon (like 5pm - 6pm) we've been getting hammered here in Fort Myers....


Lay off the cocktails and you should be ok...

------

Anyways, just had a nice little cluster of earthquakes here. Looks like a 4.6, 4.7, and 4.8. Note to mother earth - please stop counting up now...

My phone went crazy and kept saying we were having 5.1 and 5.2s. I can feel those. I was not able to feel these.
Quoting 638. beell:



Just looking for a credible source of the observation, Bob-no thanks necessary. The "nice work" was from your link, not me.
I have been trying to figure out where nullschool gets temperatures. It looks like it uses NWS data that's several hours old. It shows Eufaula as 28.5 degrees (83.3) when it's really 75.2 degrees [23.94]. I have no idea what the source would be for Siberia unless that also comes from the NWS.
The three sisters...

Quoting 642. nonblanche:



That one directly west just yielded a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Fernley. Fernley's been getting hammered a lot, hence our full ditches. :) It's the Yerington storm that was looking ominous an hour ago, but unless (like yesterday's weather) these storms are preceded by days of broken storms and virga, pumping up the PW numbers, they just crumple like a Yugo at Rattlesnake Raceway.
There are two cells that are the subject of a flash flood warning, one over Fernley and the other near Silver Springs, my old stomping grounds. The one over Silver Springs has a small chance of getting to you but I think it goes north of Fallon. The Fernley storm is tracking east along I-80 and has no chance of getting to Fallon. The Yerington storm is now a Yugo. You should at least get some nice outflow winds, keeping things cool.
Quoting 641. vis0:




Why is it that every radar image from Patrap seems to go at supersonic speed? It is perhaps because he's using a .05 second delay like this?

Nothing in the ATL, not even a weak tropical wave that could bring some rain...
650. beell
Quoting 645. sar2401:

I have been trying to figure out where nullschool gets temperatures. It looks like it uses NWS data that's several hours old. It shows Eufaula as 28.5 degrees (83.3) when it's really 75.2 degrees [23.94]. I have no idea what the source would be for Siberia unless that also comes from the NWS.


Not from a thermometer...

nullschool credits NCEP/GFS.

a visualization of global weather conditions
forecast by supercomputers updated every three hours


Quoting 525. LargoFl:

too far out in time but at the end of run GFS has a Low in the gulf by tex/mex............


Well, we had one of those lows in the gulf by tex/mex last week. Didn't develop into anything but it did shoot some pretty good storms north into my city, Houston. No damage, but the streets were flooded, I will say. We're getting used to that, I'm sorry to say.
Quoting 651. pureet1948:



Well, we had one of those lows in the gulf by tex/mex last week. Didn't develop into anything but it did shoot some pretty good storms north into my city, Houston. No damage, but the streets were flooded, I will say. We're getting used to that, I'm sorry to say.
That's a bust, again RIP 2015 Hurricane season.
Quoting 652. HurricaneAndre:

That's a bust, again RIP 2015 Hurricane season.


Don't RIP a hurricane season in its infancy. Yes, this season may be unproductive, but you can't lay claim to that at the beginning.
Quoting 645. sar2401:

I have been trying to figure out where nullschool gets temperatures. It looks like it uses NWS data that's several hours old. It shows Eufaula as 28.5 degrees (83.3) when it's really 75.2 degrees [23.94]. I have no idea what the source would be for Siberia unless that also comes from the NWS.


There's a huge chance you could be wrong. In all your assumptions,
Quoting 640. OrchidGrower:

Insane storm here in Cape Coral (SW FL) for the past hour. In the six years I've been here I've never seen a rainy season like this one, so far. Even the eternal "hole in the sky" over the nearby Caloosahatchee has not been able to divert the rain away from me this year. Usually my garden patch doesn't start its rainy season until the last week of June, but this year I started getting regular rain the very first week of June. Tonight, though, is crazy.

BTW, just returned from July 4th get-together 70 miles north up at Casey Key, where it's just dry as a bone. Clearly parts of So. FL keep getting rain and other parts keep Not getting rain!

Anyway, I'd wanted to save up until I could afford a serious personal weather station, but curiosity over how much rain is really falling each day is just too much -- I'll snag a cheap-o rain gauge next weekend and get it installed.

Now I just need to move where it rains like this for most of the year! ;-)


Well it's no mistake you're noticing excessive rain. Southwest Florida has really gotten smacked lately, there have been severe thunderstorms in Ft. Myers/Lee county for several days in a row with very heavy totals, and rainfall accumulations show about 15-20 inches over the past month, so yeah it's been busy down there!

Average rainfall in Ft. Myers and Lee county area in June through September is around 10 inches per month, so the rainy season is very dramatic down there, but even so far it's been quite a bit over the average, about 50-100% above an already high average.
The Greenland melt page note the melt graph -
Link
Note how we've blown through 2 standard deviations like a volcano.
East Pacific: 95E is producing disorganized convective activity and the environment appears that it will no longer support it developing into a tropical cyclone. 96E is producing organizing convective activity and the environment will become more supportive for tropical cyclone development over the next few days.

West Pacific. TS Chan-hom is starting to get better organized and it is set on for a continued organizational trend for the next 5 days and to peak at 140mph typhoon. TS Nangka is getting more organized as well and is on the verge of becoming a Typhoon and will continue its trend as well. TS Linfa is getting more organized temporarily and will get less organized over the next few days and become post-tropical.

Read more...
Quoting 645. sar2401:

I have been trying to figure out where nullschool gets temperatures.


Go ask them .
.
Quoting 656. ColoradoBob1:

The Greenland melt page note the melt graph -
Link
Note how we've blown through 2 standard deviations like a volcano.


I am confused. Reading the article it appears that Greenland is doing well with melt this year so far. The melt is better than the 1981 - 2010 average. Which IMHO is good, right?
Quoting 652. HurricaneAndre:

That's a bust, again RIP 2015 Hurricane season.
Oh you've got to be kidding. I know the Atlantic Basin is dead right now but it's only the first week in July. We've got a long way to go before you can say RIP. Even in a quite year anything can happen during August, September and October. Just go back and review your Hurricane History and you will see that Florida got struck by a lot of Hurricanes during slow seasons. Remember it only takes "One". The 1935 season only produced 6-storms and two of them hit South Florida. The first one being the Great Labor Day Hurricane with winds of 200-MPH and the second being the Yankee Hurricane making a direct hit on Miami on November the 4th with 95-MPH. So don't give up the ship just yet.
Looks like STS is at it again....reporting nearly 6 inches of rain when no weather station around is reporting anything more than 2-3" He just can't help himself, always has to be the top gun....SMH
Quoting 661. HurriHistory:

Oh you've got to be kidding. I know the Atlantic Basin is dead right now but it's only the first week in July. We've got a long way to go before you can say RIP. Even in a quite year anything can happen during August, September and October. Just go back and review your Hurricane History and you will see that Florida got struck by a lot of Hurricanes during slow seasons. Remember it only takes "One". The 1935 season only produced 6-storms and two of them hit South Florida. The first one being the Great Labor Day Hurricane with winds of 200-MPH and the second being the Yankee Hurricane making a direct hit on Miami on November the 4th with 95-MPH. So don't give up the ship just yet.
Quoting 653. Astrometeor:



Don't RIP a hurricane season in its infancy. Yes, this season may be unproductive, but you can't lay claim to that at the beginning.
Yeah. I had over reacted. I'm sorry guys. Just want to track something that's all.
Quoting 662. sanflee76:

Looks like STS is at it again....reporting nearly 6 inches of rain when no weather station around is reporting anything more than 2-3" He just can't help himself, always has to be the top gun....SMH


Apparently this |-----------| to STS is 6 inches... I bet he over estimates the length of a lot of things.

- But I still like his posts...
Quoting 662. sanflee76:

Looks like STS is at it again....reporting nearly 6 inches of rain when no weather station around is reporting anything more than 2-3" He just can't help himself, always has to be the top gun....SMH


No, he could certainly be telling the truth, there are areas where rainfall estimates are 4-6 inches and even 6-8 north and NE of Orlando in the general area he said he lives in, and that's with the old rainfall estimation technique, which is underestimating a bit over official stations. It's possible some pockets could have seen 2-3 inches more than he did.
Florida rain is spotty . I have seen my pool go up 5 inches while nearby weather stations read only half that.
Quoting 663. HurricaneAndre:

Yeah. I had over reacted. I'm sorry guys. Just want to track something that's all.


Track Chan-hom. If it becomes a super-typhoon it will be amazing. There's no difference between tracking him and storms such as Igor. Well...that is until Chan-hom makes landfall.
Quoting 660. Dakster:



I am confused. Reading the article it appears that Greenland is doing well with melt this year so far. The melt is better than the 1981 - 2010 average. Which IMHO is good, right?

The article was published on June 15. A lot has changed since then.
Quoting 668. ACSeattle:


The article was published on June 15. A lot has changed since then.


Gotcha... See.... I knew I was missing something.
Quoting 650. beell:



Not from a thermometer...

nullschool credits NCEP/GFS.

a visualization of global weather conditions
forecast by supercomputers updated every three hours



It also credits the NWS -

Weather Data | GFS (Global Forecast System)
NCEP / National Weather Service / NOAA

I assume that's where it pulls temperatures since they also have about a three hour time lag. But, I still don't have a clue where temperatures in Siberia come from. Does the NWS carry temperatures from Siberia? If not, where's the data source? I wish there was a little more detail than what I find in a hard to read list of "credits". I've seen many people posting pictures from nullschool as if it's real time data when it's not. Most of what's on there is another way to look at the GFS.
Quoting 665. Jedkins01:



No, he could certainly be telling the truth, there are areas where rainfall estimates are 4-6 inches and even 6-8 north and NE of Orlando in the general area he said he lives in, and that's with the old rainfall estimation technique, which is underestimating a bit over official stations. It's possible some pockets could have seen 2-3 inches more than he did.

Could you please tell me how to find the rainfall estimation graphics? what site do you use? And i caught him in a BIG lie about rainfall for TS Fay years ago. He said over 20" in 8 hours then he says it was 10 hours. Those figures were not even close to reality. Some people got 20"-27" in total for 3 DAYS let alone 8-10 hours
Quoting 665. Jedkins01:



No, he could certainly be telling the truth, there are areas where rainfall estimates are 4-6 inches and even 6-8 north and NE of Orlando in the general area he said he lives in, and that's with the old rainfall estimation technique, which is underestimating a bit over official stations. It's possible some pockets could have seen 2-3 inches more than he did.
I don't know how much rain fell at his house but I'll say this. Without instruments, the two things I've seen the public always overestimate is rainfall and wind speed. If there's no rain gage or anemometer, I'm skeptical.
Quoting 652. HurricaneAndre:

That's a bust, again RIP 2015 Hurricane season.


A lot of annual disturbances don't develop. Otherwise hurricane season would be a lot more active than it actually is.
Quoting 672. sar2401:

I don't know how much rain fell at his house but I'll say this. Without instruments, the two things I've seen the public always overestimate is rainfall and wind speed. If there's no rain gage or anemometer, I'm skeptical.


Experience certainly isn't a substitute for actual evidence.
Quoting 602. flsky:

Aren't you glad this isn't headed into the GOM?




Honestly, no. >_>

No disrespect to anyone, but I have over $300 in chase money. I wish it WAS heading toward the Gulf. I thought about intercepting Bill but it was a non-event.
Quoting 675. KoritheMan:



Honestly, no. >_>

No disrespect to anyone, but I have over $300 in chase money. I wish it WAS heading toward the Gulf. I thought about intercepting Bill but it was a non-event.


Bill would've been a good practice run.

Non-event....pfft, Bill was a TD all the way through Kentucky.
Quoting 671. sanflee76:


Could you please tell me how to find the rainfall estimation graphics? what site do you use?
Just go to the Nexrad radar and chose "Total Precipitation" on the bottom of the radar image. It looks like this for Orlando -



The color gradations, once it gets into the red, are almost impossible for my color blind eyes to distinguish. I think Scott lives in or near Apopka. It's at the top of the image. There's a small area of red there but I can't tell if it's for 3.0 to 4.0 inches or the reds up to 5.0 to 6.0 inches. I think it's 4.0 to 5.0, the next one up from orange but you'll have to decide. Whatever it is, it's a very small area, along with another area just to the SW of Apopka. Otherwise, the majority of the Orlando area got less than half an inch, some got nothing, while others got into the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range. It does show that reality at Scott's house doesn't have anything to do with reality in the rest of the area.
Quoting 676. Astrometeor:



Bill would've been a good practice run.

Non-event....pfft, Bill was a TD all the way through Kentucky.


Yeah but what happens if I had gone and we turned around and got a good hurricane during August/September? It takes a lot of money to go to the coast for two to three days.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 677. sar2401:

Just go to the Nexrad radar and chose "Total Precipitation" on the bottom of the radar image. It looks like this for Orlando -



The color gradations, once it gets into the red, are almost impossible for my color blind eyes to distinguish. I think Scott lives in or near Apopka. It's at the top of the image. There's a small area of red there but I can't tell if it's for 3.0 to 4.0 inches or the reds up to 5.0 to 6.0 inches. I think it's 4.0 to 5.0, the next one up from orange but you'll have to decide. Whatever it is, it's a very small area, along with another area just to the SW of Apopka. Otherwise, the majority of the Orlando area got less than half an inch, some got nothing, while others got into the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range. It does show that reality at Scott's house doesn't have anything to do with reality in the rest of the area.
Quoting 677. sar2401:

Just go to the Nexrad radar and chose "Total Precipitation" on the bottom of the radar image. It looks like this for Orlando -



The color gradations, once it gets into the red, are almost impossible for my color blind eyes to distinguish. I think Scott lives in or near Apopka. It's at the top of the image. There's a small area of red there but I can't tell if it's for 3.0 to 4.0 inches or the reds up to 5.0 to 6.0 inches. I think it's 4.0 to 5.0, the next one up from orange but you'll have to decide. Whatever it is, it's a very small area, along with another area just to the SW of Apopka. Otherwise, the majority of the Orlando area got less than half an inch, some got nothing, while others got into the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range. It does show that reality at Scott's house doesn't have anything to do with reality in the rest of the area.

Thanks Sar!
W00t! Some seriously nifty outflow winds goin' right now. Nothing on radar, no warnings, if we're getting those here then those storms to the north must have been doozies. Sure got a pretty lightshow. Feels like pushing up to 50 mph top speed. Exciting, like a small town carny roller coaster I _almost_ trust.
Quoting 660. Dakster:



I am confused. Reading the article it appears that Greenland is doing well with melt this year so far. The melt is better than the 1981 - 2010 average. Which IMHO is good, right?


Thanks, Dakster. I read the whole article, and got the feeling that while overall the numbers aren't great, the temperature, snowfall and albedo details were not bad at all.