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Guillermo Gathers Steam in NE Pacific; Invest 94L Clings to Life

By: Bob Henson 5:54 PM GMT on July 31, 2015

Hurricane Guillermo is stepping up its game in the Northeast Pacific, as it moves along a steady west-northwest course that could bring it near the Hawaiian Islands next week. Guillermo was upgraded to hurricane status by the National Hurricane Center at 5:00 am EDT Friday, and in the NHC’s 11:00 am EDT advisory, Guillermo was located at 12.4°N, 132.7°W, with top sustained winds at 90 mph. Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows a healthy tropical cyclone, with extensive upper-level outflow, a distinct convective core, and a small eye beginning to take shape. Guillermo is successfully fending off an expanse of dry air to its north and maintaining an envelope of rich moisture.


Figure 1. A GOES West infrared satellite image of Hurricane Guillermo from 1630 GMT (12:30 pm EDT) on Friday, July 31. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Guillermo is in a quite favorable environment to intensify further, with warm sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear. SSTs are around 28-29°C (82-84°F) along Guillermo’s path for the next day or so, which is 1-2°C above the climatological norm (see Figure 2). The oceanic heat content--the amount of energy in the uppermost part of the ocean--is rather low ahead of Guillermo, which could spell trouble for a slow-moving system churning up cooler water from below (see Figure 3). However, Guillermo is moving briskly (about 17 mph), and that pace is expected to continue for the next couple of days.


Figure 2. Departures from average sea-surface temperature over the Northeast Pacific for the week ending July 27, 2015. Image credit: NOAA National Hurricane Center.

It is still too soon to know how much of a threat Guillermo will pose to the Hawaiian Islands. The steering flow around Guillermo will be fairly stable over the next several days, keeping it on a track headed almost directly toward the islands. The NHC’s latest outlook places Guillermo located about a day away from the Big Island by early Wednesday morning. The most recent track models are in some disagreement over whether Guillermo will be picked up by a strong band of upper-level westerlies around this point, taking it well northeast of Hawaii; continue on its west-northwest track; or arc further westward, a path that could take it south of the islands. The disagreement is evident within the 1200 GMT Friday runs of the 20-member GFS ensemble (see Figure 3). As for intensity, Guillermo is likely to peak over the weekend, with NHC bringing the hurricane to low-end Category 3 strength (peak sustained winds of 115 mph) by Saturday. The unusually warm waters fostered by El Niño would keep Guillermo traveling over SSTs of at least 27°C (the rough threshold for sustaining a tropical cyclone) all the way to Hawaii. However, wind shear is expected to steadily increase as Giuillermo gains latitude and approaches the belt of upper-level westerlies noted above. Given its current track and intensity, and the increased climatological risk of hurricanes affecting Hawaii during El Niño, we will need to keep a close eye on Guillermo over the next few days. Twice-daily hurricane-hunter flights to monitor Guillermo have been slated beginning on Saturday, with the NOAA Gulfstream IV aircraft tentatively scheduled to sample the large-scale environment around Guillermo on Monday.


Figure 3. Projections for the track of Hurricane Guillermo produced on Friday morning by the 20-member GFS ensemble. The operational run is shown in white. Ensemble runs are produced by running the models at lower resolution than the operational run and varying the initial atmospheric conditions slightly to generate an "ensemble" of twenty potential weather situations, illustrating a range of possible outcomes.


Invest 94L shows little sign of strengthening
Invest 94L is still identifiable, but not very impressive, in the central North Atlantic. The loosely organized system was located around 12.5°N, 32.2°W at 8:00 am EDT Friday, moving west at about 15 mph. The circulation around 94L is highly elongated, with upper-level outflow evident but dry air invading the storm, leaving it with only weak shower and thunderstorm activity. The SHIPS statistical model brings 94L to moderate tropical-storm strength in the next several days, but none of the most reliable dynamical models for tropical cyclone formation indicate any substantial development of 94L, and NHC has lowered its five-day odds of development from 30% to 10%. Even if 94L managed to get a new lease on life in the central Atlantic, it would face largely hostile conditions as it continued west into the very high wind shear present across the Caribbean.


Figure 4. Infrared satellite image of Invest 94L (located at center left). Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Soudelor a potential threat to Japan next week
Tropical Storm Soudelor should begin flexing its muscle over the next couple of days in the Northwest Pacific. Hindered over the last day by a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) to its north, Soudelor will soon escape the TUTT’s influence and likely launch into several days of significant strengthening. Soudelor’s peak winds were about 40 mph at 8:00 am EDT Friday, but the outlook issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center brings Soudelor’s winds to typhoon strength by Saturday and Category 4 strength (140 mph) by Monday. Track and intensity forecasts are increasingly uncertain beyond that point, as wind shear will be on the increase and water temperatures along Soudelor’s path will be cooler. It appears there is a good chance Soudelor will move far enough west to pose a potential threat to Japan later in the week.

Another off-season system pops up in the South Pacific
While our attention is focused on the peak season for tropical development in the Northern Hemisphere, Invest 91SH is defying seasonal expectations. The system was located at 7.8°S and 167.9°E at 8:00 am EDT Friday, moving slowly south-southeast with peak winds of around 23 mph. The 0600 GMT Friday run of the U.S. Navy’s version of the GFDN model brings Invest 91SH to tropical storm strength over the weekend before a weakening trend is projected to set in, well before the system approaches the islands of Vanuatu. A tropical storm in this basin in early August would be very unusual, as the official South Pacific season runs from November to April, but El Niño does tend to increase activity in the South Pacific. If 91SH does develop, it will be named Tuni and classified as the first South Pacific cyclone in the 2015-16 season. Another off-season system, Tropical Cyclone Raquel, formed at the end of June and intensified to Category 1 strength in early July, bringing at least one fatality and extensive damage to agriculture in the Solomon Islands. Raquel is the only tropical cyclone recorded to date in the South Pacific during July.

I’ll have another update by Monday at the latest. Wunderblogger Steve Gregory added a new post on Friday afternoon. We’re also pleased to welcome Dr. Phil Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) as a WU blogger. Phil worked with Dr. Bill Gray for many years on the Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecasting project, and he is now lead author on those forecasts. In his first Weather Underground post, Phil weighs in on the multiple ways in which El Niño tends to inhibit Atlantic hurricanes.

Have a great weekend!

Bob


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 995. Jedkins01:



Could tonight be potentially one of the worst for heavy rains in this area? The WPC thinks so, uh oh...

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0412
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
123 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 030522Z - 031122Z

SUMMARY...SHORT CONVECTIVE BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN
IMPACTING THE NORTHWEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA SHORTLY, WITH
HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 3". FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE CIRCULATION AROUND A SURFACE LOW NEAR CROSS CITY,
CURRENTLY 1009 HPA IN CENTRAL PRESSURE, IS FUNNELING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT HAS ALSO RETURNED AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH PREVIOUSLY MOVED OUT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO, WHICH IS ALLOWING A SHORT BAND OF CONVECTION TO APPROACH
THE COAST. CIN IS NOT A FACTOR HERE -- CONVECTION WILL BE SURFACE
BASED VERY NEAR THE COASTLINE WHERE THE NATURAL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT SHOULD LIE DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 2.25-2.5" EXIST ACROSS THE REGION PER GPS INFORMATION.
INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 20-25 KTS PER RECENT RAP FORECASTS AND VAD
WIND PROFILES FROM TAMPA BAY/RUSKIN FL. MUCAPES OF 1000-3000 J/KG
LIE NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST OF FL PER RECENT
SPC MESOANALYSES.

THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, BUT THE THERMAL
BOUNDARY SHOULDN'T MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PENINSULA CONTINUES TO THIN, SETTING UP
A FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS TO FORM WITHIN
THIS MOIST AIRMASS WITHIN THE REGION OF BEST CLOUD BASE INFLOW,
WHICH IS BETWEEN TAMPA BAY AND CEDAR KEY. THIS IS BORNE OUT IN
THE 18Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES, WHICH SHOW A 50-80%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THIS
REGION. HOURLY RAIN RATES OF UP TO 3" ARE POSSIBLE PER THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD DOWN THE
COAST WITH TIME. THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE IS NEARLY UNANIMOUS
IN SHOWING 3-7" RAINFALL WITHIN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT SIX
HOURS. RADAR ESTIMATES FROM THIS REGION INDICATE 15-30" HAS
FALLEN OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS WITH 2/3 OF THIS FALLING OVER THE
PAST TEN DAYS -- SOILS ARE SATURATED. THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITHIN THE SCALLOPED AREA COULD BE SPOTTY,
WHICH KEPT THE CATEGORY OF THIS MPD AS POSSIBLE RATHER THAN LIKELY.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...



My personal take on it is, it's tough to setup where heavy rain totals around surface lows will setup because it's tough to predict where vort max areas and low level convergence will be best. If nocturnal instability can make it onshore, and if low level vorticity and convergence focuses near the coast, Anywhere from Hernando County to the Tampa Bay area could see torrential rains very close to the coast, I'm seeing lightning offshore and hearing deep rumbles of thunder, so with lapse rates this weak, to have decent CG activity with tropical convection that I haven't seen since the flood event Saturday afternoon shows these cells are getting deep and organized, so this could be a problem.

However, if the air stabilizes and convergence weakens near the coast, rainfall totals won't be nearly as high despite the potential. Given such a high potential for flooding rains yet a tricky forecast, I'm going with a blend between the two, but leaning towards very heavy rains from Hernando down into Pinellas County with the worst likely from Northern Pinellas to SW Pasco.
Nice analysis jedkins. I just got awakened by a clap of thunder and am storm watching on my porch. It's my day off; and although I have to wake up at this time on my work days I really don't mind missing sleeping in for this event 😆 looks like we after this initial band that is over me now we'll get plenty of back building from the wnw.
Quoting 968. Jedkins01:


That sounds a little over kill, a lot of tropical moisture out there but all the deepest convection with this low has remained offshore except that round that moved through the Tampa Ba area yesterday. Anything is possible though I suppose when PW's are 2.25-2.5 with a tropical airmass and a low in the gulf. Rainfall was starting to look pretty darn strong west of here but has weakened some, showing how convection is struggling to get going in with such warm air aloft due to all the latent heat release without vorticity from a stronger named system.


Is it overkill now Jed as already 4" to 6" have fallen north of Tampa and its still coming down 4" to 5" an hour.
Quoting 1002. StormTrackerScott:



Is it overkill now Jed as already 4" to 6" have fallen north of Tampa and its still coming down 4" to 5" an hour.
What map do you see showing 4-6?
This could be a 100 year flood today north of Tampa. Already flash flood emergencies.

Quoting 1003. FLWeatherFreak91:

What map do you see showing 4-6?


Yup 4" to 6" already just north of Tampa per local news here in Orlando and they said its spreading ENE right. 2 storms merged just about an hour ago across Pasco County and as a result there are some incredible rain rates. Pasco County was the county on National news about 7 days ago saying that 300 homes were surrounded and I can't even imagine whats going on now.
Since July 24th 16" to 18" have fallen in New port Richey per radar est.

Quoting 1005. StormTrackerScott:



Yup 4" to 6" already just north of Tampa per local news here in Orlando and they said its spreading ENE right. 2 storms merged just about an hour ago across Pasco County and as a result there are some incredible rain rates. Pasco County was the county on National news about 7 days ago saying that 300 homes were surrounded and I can't even imagine whats going on now.
I'm in SW pasco and haven't reached half an inch... In fact, nowhere in Florida has received 3" in the past 6 hours. Check the hourly precipitation analysis.

Maybe your news said they will receive 4-6" (which I don't disagree with).
Quoting 1002. StormTrackerScott:



Is it overkill now Jed as already 4" to 6" have fallen north of Tampa and its still coming down 4" to 5" an hour.


Rainfall is unbelievable on the Pasco County coast right now, bad news is, looks like a coastal front is developing there and pushing south, if so that area could shift over the river flood warning and down here next. I would enjoy it but people in the river flood area? Not so much...
BTW that area has easily seen 2-4 inches conservatively, but with these tropical rainfall rates, I wouldn't be surprised is some places on the Pasco County coast have seen over 5 inches.

Not sure why but despite the tropical environment, these cells are producing more and more lightning, i.e. increasingly stronger updrafts despite very little surface CAPE and weak mid level lapse rates. Strong updrafts producing bright CG flashes like I'm seeing in such a saturated environment is bad news, that's what happened in Tampa on Saturday, where rainfall amounts of 5-8 inches fell in 2-3 hours. This looks like it's happening again in Pasco.
Quoting 1008. Jedkins01:



Rainfall is unbelievable on the Pasco County coast right now, bad news is, looks like a coastal front is developing there and pushing south, if so that area could shift over the river flood warning and down here next. I would enjoy it but people in the river flood area? Not so much...
BTW that area has easily seen 2-4 inches conservatively, but with these tropical rainfall rates, I wouldn't be surprised is some places on the Pasco County coast have seen over 5 inches.

Not sure why but despite the tropical environment, these cells are producing more and more lightning, i.e. increasingly stronger updrafts despite very little surface CAPE and weak mid level lapse rates. Strong updrafts producing bright CG flashes like I'm seeing in such a saturated environment is bad news, that's what happened in Tampa on Saturday, where rainfall amounts of 5-8 inches fell in 2-3 hours. This looks like it's happening again in Pasco.


Per local news here in Orlando 4" to 6" already and counting fast.

Here is NWS in Melbourne's 2 cents. 1008mb low this time of year not being classified is impressive.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
314 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TODAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE ~1008 MBS NEAR CROSS CITY ACROSS
THE ERN FL BIG BEND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
Quoting 1007. FLWeatherFreak91:

I'm in SW pasco and haven't reached half an inch... In fact, nowhere in Florida has received 3" in the past 6 hours. Check the hourly precipitation analysis.

Maybe your news said they will receive 4-6" (which I don't disagree with).


Have fallen.
Quoting 1007. FLWeatherFreak91:

I'm in SE pasco and haven't reached half an inch... In fact, nowhere in Florida has received 3" in the past 6 hours. Check the hourly precipitation analysis.

Maybe your news said they will receive 4-6" (which I don't disagree with).


There have been some spots near coastal Pasco that have seen 3 almost certainly, trust me, parts of Tampa saw 5-8 inches in a few hours on Saturday and standard rainfall estimates were just too low. Dual pole and rain gauges confirmed much heavier rains of 5-8 inches did indeed occur, which the standard radar estimate was much lower. Even using standard estimates, 2-3 inches of fallen.

Quoting 1010. StormTrackerScott:



Have fallen.
Radar must be underestimating the rainfall then
1 hour rain rates.

Quoting 1012. FLWeatherFreak91:

Radar must be underestimating the rainfall then


Tropical in nature. Always the case.
Confirmed. Lol. Kite surfers dream I suppose.

Quoting 959. KuCommando:



Man.....that's not surf.....that's a "washing machine".......HaoleBoy will confirm that ;)
Quoting 1006. StormTrackerScott:

Since July 24th 16" to 18" have fallen in New port Richey per radar est.




Scott the scary thing, is, these estimates shown here are notably lower than rain gauge reports gathered, it will be interesting to see the Ruskin local storm report page to find out how has fallen in these areas before all is said and done.

Looks like severe flooding will for sure be happening in the Anclote river in SW Pasco once again in the aftermath of all this.
Storm tops approaching 39k' further upstream... That is pretty surprising given the main forcing is 5-10 knots of convergence
Quoting 1016. Jedkins01:



Scott the scary thing, is, these estimates shown here are notably lower than rain gauge reports gathered, it will be interesting to see the Ruskin local storm report page to find out how has fallen in these areas before all is said and done.

Looks like severe flooding will for sure be happening in the Anclote river in SW Pasco once again in the aftermath of all this.


Like at this convective ball!

Looks like they line is definitely going to make it to you jed. Just got over me and I can agree with the seemingly outlandish rainfall rates now lol
Quoting 1019. FLWeatherFreak91:

Looks like they line is definitely going to make it to you jed. Just got over me and I can agree with the seemingly outlandish rainfall rates now lol


Over 2.4" PWATS will do that.
Well there goes that band inland. I wonder when the next will be able to develop. I'm guessing there's more to come considering the best dynamics are still working in from the nw...
Once this low kicks out another trough dives in the weekend.

this lightning is insane
Quoting 1023. FLWeatherFreak91:

this lightning is insane


How much rain by you? TampaBayMatt is already over 2" and it just started a bit ago by him.
Quoting 985. ILwthrfan:

Super Typhoon in the making.  Now will it flirt with 180-200 knots at peak?  It may have a shot, already looking picking up a few annualar characteristics.


EWRC is done and the thing looks just great now. If not super typhoon already then within six hours imo.
1026. MahFL
Impressive :

Quoting 1024. StormTrackerScott:



How much rain by you? TampaBayMatt is already over 2" and it just started a bit ago by him.
2.81. I see we didn't have to wait long for redevelopment either as more heavy rain will arrive soon.... This lightning is rivaling the worst seabreeze storms I've ever seen
Now that the sun is up I see I have a lake again and water is about an inch from my garage slab.
Quoting 1019. FLWeatherFreak91:

Looks like they line is definitely going to make it to you jed. Just got over me and I can agree with the seemingly outlandish rainfall rates now lol


Scott was definitely right, a storm spotter reported over 6.5 inches in Hudson in Pasco County, i;m getting absolutely torrential flooding rains, the street is starting to flood here, also an impressive amount of CGT and very gusty tropical squall winds.

Just so you and everyone knows, I'm getting ready for work so just so everyone doesn't think I'm dead, I won't be reporting in until later, hopefully I won't get stranded at work! lol I work right down the street.
Soudelor nearly finished with its EWRC... and what a finished product it is.

1031. LargoFl
Been pouring for 2 1/2 hours. I've got to be up to 5-6" of rain.
GFS really confident a hurricane is going to come off of Africa... sometimes the model shows the most absurd of things


Intense
Quoting 1033. wunderweatherman123:

GFS really confident a hurricane is going to come off of Africa... sometimes the model shows the most absurd of things
that crazy
This is the worst rain I've had at my place during this event. will it ever end?
1037. ncstorm
Good Morning all..

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 21m21 minutes ago

Only a 10% yellow X from NHC bc of wind shear, but 95L in NE Gulf of Mexico has blown up nicely.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located over north-central Florida
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for development
as this low moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph near the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
heavy rainfall across portions of central and northeastern Florida
today. For additional information on rainfall associated with this
system, refer to products from your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Quoting 1033. wunderweatherman123:

GFS really confident a hurricane is going to come off of Africa... sometimes the model shows the most absurd of things



if other model runs are not showing it then the GFS is nothing more then a outliner
here the update on this week EL Nino

29JUL2015 23.9 2.7 27.4 2.1 28.8 1.7 29.7 1.0


nino 1.2 2.7

nino 3 2.1

nino 3.4 1.7

nino 4 1.0

from here

Link
1041. ncstorm
Quoting 1032. Bucsboltsfan:

Been pouring for 2 1/2 hours. I've got to be up to 5-6" of rain.
Tampa TV stations are showing the entire Hillsborough/Pinellas/Pasco area having received at least four inches of rain overnight, with a few spot areas seeing as much as six-eight inches. And there's much more to come; there'll almost definitely be widespread amounts of 10" or greater when all is said and done. Tomorrow won';t be much better, with the system expected to s-l-o-w-l-y make its way up I-4 towards Orlando.

Meanwhile: cloudy but dry here in Naples...
A 100 year flood event likely taking place right now across Tampa a very extreme situation ongoing there. Reports over 10" in some areas already.

Quoting 1042. Neapolitan:

Tampa TV stations are showing the entire Hillsborough/Pinellas/Pasco area having received at least four inches of rain overnight, with a few spot areas seeing as much as six-eight inches. And there's much more to come; there'll almost definitely be widespread amounts of 10" or greater when all is said and done. Tomorrow won';t be much better, with the system expected to s-l-o-w-l-y make its way up I-4 towards Orlando.

Meanwhile: cloudy but dry here in Naples...


This is pretty serious. Rain beginning here on the NW side of Orlando. Sky is green right now pretty gnarly looking.
Why'd ya remove the RM tweet?
1046. ncstorm
Tampa Bay
More rain produces flood watches, Pasco neighborhood evacuations

Just before 7 a.m., Pasco County Emergency Management Agency issued an evacuation order for Anclote River Estates near Elfers. Major flooding has taken place along Anclote River near Elfers and along Elfers Parkway.

The early-morning heavy rains were strong enough to strand cars in Pasco County at US 19 and Foxhollow Drive, Massachusetts Ave. and Grand Boulevard and Massachusetts Ave. and Congress. Little Road has been closed between Ridge Road and Massachusetts in New Port Richey due to flooding.









love everyone reports just remember 6-8 " is minor league compared to tropical storm Faye amounts here in E C Fl.. 20"+++


Extremely impressive.
1049. MahFL
Quoting 1047. islander101010:

love everyone reports just remember 6-8 " is minor league compared to tropical storm Faye amounts here in E C Fl.. 20"+++


The event is far from over.
Quoting 1047. islander101010:

love everyone reports just remember 6-8 " is minor league compared to tropical storm Faye amounts here in E C Fl.. 20"+++


I think we're heading for Fay numbers very soon as totals are adding up fast this morning now near 10" for many areas and counting fast.

Rainfall estimates since July 24th. 20" maxes now showing up in Pasco County.

1052. intampa
heavy rains in the riverview area... on the east side of tampa bay. these storms have lightning unlike the storms of the past few days. commuters are having a hard time this morning in the tampa area. these storms have heavy rain , more so than you would think with these radar returns.
1053. beell
Lowest surface pressures appear to be inland (Gainseville/Lake City) off to the NE towards JAX. SPC meso seems pretty close to reality. ADDED: AOA 1010 mb


Bay News 9 sticking with a 70% chance of rain today despite the fact that 90% of their viewing area is getting rained on right now.
Quoting 1054. BobinTampa:

Bay News 9 sticking with a 70% chance of rain today despite the fact that 90% of their viewing area is getting rained on right now.



I posted on my blog last Monday with the Euro showing its run maxed out over Tampa with 15" and the Euro is by far the only model to accurately forecast this event and its playing out to a T!
Quoting 1053. beell:

Lowest surface pressures appear to be inland (Gainseville/Lake City) off to the NE towards JAX. SPC meso seems pretty close to reality.





NWS in Melbourne said pressures are down to 1008 mb near Cross City but that was earlier.
1057. ncstorm


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0413
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
719 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 031115Z - 031615Z

SUMMARY...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST THIS
MORNING
OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION PERSISTS OVER
NORTHERN FL AROUND A SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF CROSS CITY, FL.
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW AND NEAR A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
KEYS HAS CREATED A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMA IN
BETWEEN TO PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THAT THEN MOVE ONSHORE INTO WEST CENTRAL FL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.25-2.5" EXIST ACROSS THE REGION PER
GPS INFORMATION AND REFLECTED IN THE RAP ANALYSIS. INFLOW AT 850
HPA IS 20-25 KTS PER RECENT RAP FORECASTS AND VAD WIND PROFILES
FROM TAMPA BAY/RUSKIN FL. MUCAPES OF 1000-3000 J/KG LIE NEAR AND
OFFSHORE THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST OF FL PER CURRENT SPC
MESOANALYSES.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OUT TO OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON LIKE YESTERDAY.

THE 06Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES, WHICH SHOW A 50% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THROUGH
14Z...DECREASING AFTERWARD. HOURLY RAIN RATES OF UP TO 2" ARE
POSSIBLE.

THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ADDITIONAL 2-4" RAINFALL THIS
MORNING.
FLOODING COULD BE SPOTTY GIVEN 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF 3
INCHES, SO THIS MPD ASSIGNED THE FLASH FLOOD LIKELIHOOD AS
POSSIBLE.

PETERSEN

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON 28608223 27888190 27138178 26678203 26588270
26988277 27448290 28028298 28408292
Quoting 1055. StormTrackerScott:



I posted on my blog last Monday with the Euro showing its run maxed out over Tampa with 15" and the Euro is by far the only model to accurately forecast this event and its playing out to a T!


here the update on this week EL Nino

29JUL2015 23.9 2.7 27.4 2.1 28.8 1.7 29.7 1.0


nino 1.2 2.7

nino 3 2.1

nino 3.4 1.7

nino 4 1.0

from here

Link
Quoting 1057. ncstorm:



MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0413
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
719 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 031115Z - 031615Z

SUMMARY...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST THIS
MORNING
OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION PERSISTS OVER
NORTHERN FL AROUND A SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF CROSS CITY, FL.
CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW AND NEAR A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
KEYS HAS CREATED A BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMA IN
BETWEEN TO PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THAT THEN MOVE ONSHORE INTO WEST CENTRAL FL.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.25-2.5" EXIST ACROSS THE REGION PER
GPS INFORMATION AND REFLECTED IN THE RAP ANALYSIS. INFLOW AT 850
HPA IS 20-25 KTS PER RECENT RAP FORECASTS AND VAD WIND PROFILES
FROM TAMPA BAY/RUSKIN FL. MUCAPES OF 1000-3000 J/KG LIE NEAR AND
OFFSHORE THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST OF FL PER CURRENT SPC
MESOANALYSES.

THE MODELS FORECAST THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OUT TO OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON LIKE YESTERDAY.

THE 06Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES, WHICH SHOW A 50% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THROUGH
14Z...DECREASING AFTERWARD. HOURLY RAIN RATES OF UP TO 2" ARE
POSSIBLE.

THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ADDITIONAL 2-4" RAINFALL THIS
MORNING.
FLOODING COULD BE SPOTTY GIVEN 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF 3
INCHES, SO THIS MPD ASSIGNED THE FLASH FLOOD LIKELIHOOD AS
POSSIBLE.

PETERSEN

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON 28608223 27888190 27138178 26678203 26588270
26988277 27448290 28028298 28408292


Over 8" in Orlando since July 24th and more now moving in here in Orlando. Sky is very dark looking west.

tampa?? sounds bad and its a no namer.
Quoting 1058. Tazmanian:



here the update on this week EL Nino

29JUL2015 23.9 2.7 27.4 2.1 28.8 1.7 29.7 1.0


nino 1.2 2.7

nino 3 2.1

nino 3.4 1.7

nino 4 1.0

from here

Link


Went up to 1.7C I see. Up from 1.6C last week. AEI is going up to 4 sigma per Michael Ventrice.
Pushing close to 4.5" now and it appears a band of heavy rain is training over my location. This could get very very bad for a lot of people in Tampa. What an absolute nightmare.
1063. beell
Quoting 1055. StormTrackerScott:



I posted on my blog last Monday with the Euro showing its run maxed out over Tampa with 15" and the Euro is by far the only model to accurately forecast this event and its playing out to a T!


For the record, here's the 12Z GFS from last Monday.
Good job, Scott!

Can you post the Euro?

Keep the FL reports coming, and stay safe down there. Big event for sure. Serious line of storms moving in just north of Clearwater now. Probably at least another 4-6 hours of rain like this. Goes to show it doesn't need a name to cause problems.

Quoting 1063. beell:



For the record, here's the 12Z GFS from last Monday.
Good job, Scott!

Can you post the Euro?




Right here beell. From my blog entry last week. I posted the Euro on here July 29th.

Here try this.

July 29th this was posted as part of my Blog entry.

Now at 4.65" and it's still torrentially pouring. I have at least a foot of standing water on the sides of my house and the front and back yard. And there is no end in sight.
Quoting 1066. tampabaymatt:

Now at 4.65" and it's still torrentially pouring. I have at least a foot of standing water on the sides of my house and the front and back yard. And there is no end in sight.


Euro is looking good from last week Matt
The Tampa area hasn't seen a rain event like this in years. Fay completely missed us, we only saw a few squall lines, and Debby was a relatively short event. I'm right underneath that line moving in over Tampa that MA just posted, rain is coming down blindingly hard.
Quoting 1067. StormTrackerScott:



Euro is looking good from last week Matt


Now at 5". Just unreal!
Getting fairly heavy rain on Longboat Key this morning. Was expecting this blob to drift more northeast overnight, but is it just my eyes or does it seem to have come further south?
Quoting 1044. StormTrackerScott:



This is pretty serious. Rain beginning here on the NW side of Orlando. Sky is green right now pretty gnarly looking.

I saw that green sky waking up this morning west of Orlando. Not what we usually see in Florida in the early morning that is for sure!
Quoting 1068. CybrTeddy:

The Tampa area hasn't seen a rain event like this in years. Fay completely missed us, we only saw a few squall lines, and Debby was a relatively short event. I'm right underneath that line moving in over Tampa that MA just posted, rain is coming down blindingly hard.


I don't remember an event of this duration and I've been here 35 years. We've had a couple 8-10 inch storms but those were typically one or two day events. This is crazy.
if your in tamp FL and planing on going out pleaee have a life jacket in the car with you so that way if you end up getting stuck in flood waters and flood waters are riseing fast and needed too get out quick the lifejacket will keep you a float in tell help comes please think be for you drive out today and stay safe
Quoting 1072. sporteguy03:


I saw that green sky waking up this morning west of Orlando. Not what we usually see in Florida in the early morning that is for sure!


These yellow's on radar over Apopka are heavy rain not moderate or even light rain.
Quoting 1073. BobinTampa:



I don't remember an event of this duration and I've been here 35 years. We've had a couple 8-10 inch storms but those were typically one or two day events. This is crazy.


I can imagine, use to visit my Grandparents in St. Pete in the 80's and it was always dry as a bone. This has been strange, low then another low and now this one that's just hanging out not going anywhere. STS big break coming after this finally moves out or will Florida be under the gun for more epic rains as this strengthening strong El-Nino continues?
1077. ncstorm
I personally know a storm does not have to have a name in order to paralyze a city and cause widespread flooding

We had ex tropical storm Nicole in 2010 and received over 22 inches of rain..Lets hope Florida doesn't see the same thing..

Heavy rains beginning to move into Orlando already here in Apopka
Quoting 1074. Tazmanian:

if your in tamp FL and planing on going out pleaee have a life jacket in the car with you so that way if you end up getting stuck in flood waters and flood waters are riseing fast and needed too get out quick the lifejacket will keep you a float in tell help comes please think be for you drive out today and stay safe


Great advice Taz! In all the rescue videos we've all seen, no one ever has a life jacket on. They all wish they had brought one with them.
Quoting 1073. BobinTampa:



I don't remember an event of this duration and I've been here 35 years. We've had a couple 8-10 inch storms but those were typically one or two day events. This is crazy.


One of the worst street flooding events ever. I tried to go to work and couldn't get out of my neighborhood and that has happened only one time before. It's still coming down hard. Just heard on Baynews9 that this will be the 3rd worst river crest for the Anclote, it's rising very fast.
Even near Orlando this could get bad as heavy rain is training this way.



1082. ncstorm
Water Vapor Loop..

Quoting 1078. StormTrackerScott:

Heavy rains beginning to move into Orlando already here in Apopka

Looks like an all day event according to the radar, I don't see any breaks in the coverage. Today looks like the day Central Florida(Orlando area) gets the heaviest rain.
Quoting 1082. ncstorm:

Water Vapor Loop..




It doesn't seem to have moved any in the past 7 hours. How much longer will it be stalled there?
1085. RatRAP
Here in Downtown Orlando it's looking like a typical Florida summer time rainy pattern. I hope we don't top last years flooding we had in September. That covered over the street drains and then topped over the sidewalks. Cars driving by sent waves into peoples garages.

Time to plug in the sump pump in the crawl space under the house.

Stay safe!
I now have two inches of water in my garage and it's about to spill into my house... This is insanity. Been here since 94 and have never had flooding like this
Quoting 1085. RatRAP:

Here in Downtown Orlando it's looking like a typical Florida summer time rainy pattern. I hope we don't top last years flooding we had in September. That covered over the street drains and then topped over the sidewalks. Cars driving by sent waves into peoples garages.

Time to plug in the sump pump in the crawl space under the house.

Stay safe!

This is definitely not a typical summertime rainy pattern. A typical rainy pattern in the summer is 40% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon getting a steady rain all day is not normal.
Quoting 1086. FLWeatherFreak91:

I now have two inches of water in my garage and it's about to spill into my house... This is insanity. Been here since 94 and have never had flooding like this


Oh my!
1089. MahFL
The low has outflow on the east side typically seen with mature hurricanes :

1090. ncstorm


Floods: Sandbags - Making and Using Them

Making a Sand-Bag Barrier

Sandbags can be useful in redirecting storm water and debris flows away from your home. But be sure that the sandbags are properly filled and maintained. Here's how:

Fill sandbags one-half full. Use sand if readily available, otherwise use soil.

Fold the top of sandbag down and rest the bag on its folded top. Take care in stacking the sandbags.

Limit placement to three layers unless a building is used as a backing or sandbags are placed in a pyramid.

Tamp each sandbag into place, completing each layer before you begin a new layer. Clear a path between buildings for debris flow.

Lay a plastic sheet in between the building and the bags to control the flow and prevent water from seeping into sliding glass doors.


What to Expect

There are limits to what sandbags can do, so remember: Sandbags will not seal out water. Sandbags deteriorate when exposed to continued wetting and drying for several months.

If bags are placed too early, they may not be effective when needed. Sandbags are for small water flow protection -- up to two feet.

Protection from larger flow requires a more permanent flood prevention system. Be sure to consult with your local environmental protection department before disposing of used sandbags.

Sandbags that are exposed to contaminated floodwaters may pose an environmental hazard and require special handling.

Quoting 1070. tampabaymatt:



Now at 5". Just unreal!
I wouldn't be surprised if you doubled that by end of today.  At least another 2-3" without question.
1092. MahFL
Quoting 1087. sporteguy03:


This is definitely not a typical summertime rainy pattern. A typical rainy pattern in the summer is 40% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon getting a steady rain all day is not normal.


That's because you have a tropical low over Florida.
Soudelor has a closed ring of -80C convection. If the eye warms above 10C, an intensity of 165-170kt is attainable. Haiyan level.


Quoting 1086. FLWeatherFreak91:

I now have two inches of water in my garage and it's about to spill into my house... This is insanity. Been here since 94 and have never had flooding like this



now you have a indoor pool

Quoting 1081. StormTrackerScott:

Even near Orlando this could get bad as heavy rain is training this way.





Quoting 1066. tampabaymatt:

Now at 4.65" and it's still torrentially pouring. I have at least a foot of standing water on the sides of my house and the front and back yard. And there is no end in sight.
How many inches clearance do you have before it gets into your house?
Pushing 2" near Clermont now just west of Orlando. Rain here by Apopka at a moderate pace.
Quoting 1086. FLWeatherFreak91:

I now have two inches of water in my garage and it's about to spill into my house... This is insanity. Been here since 94 and have never had flooding like this


It's going to take the Tampa Bay area months to recover from this. At the rate things are looking on radar, I could end up with 10" of rain today. Already over halfway there. This is very scary. I have never seen anything like this pattern we're in.
is it an optical illusion on radar or is the rain moving pretty much due east? shouldn't it be going northeast?
Shout out to the people in Tampa and surrounding areas..Ya'll Stay safe..Rain waters coming in to your homes is a bad thing..Bin there also not a good thing...
Quoting 1095. ILwthrfan:



How many inches clearance do you have before it gets into your house?



I don't really know. Water is about 25% up my driveway and there is standing water all over the place in my yard. Unless we get 20"+ inches today, I should not have water in my home, unless it comes in from the sides.
Quoting 1095. ILwthrfan:



How many inches clearance do you have before it gets into your house?



At my location we are high up so flooding shouldn't be a worry however further down Welch RD ground is very saturated so much so you walk in some yards water comes up around your shoes. 2" now west of here and its streaming this way.

Quoting 1097. tampabaymatt:



It's going to take the Tampa Bay area months to recover from this. At the rate things are looking on radar, I could end up with 10" of rain today. Already over halfway there. This is very scary. I have never seen anything like this pattern we're in.


El-Nino causes extremes all over the world, just where and what that'll be are the unknowns. Florida's turn. Stay safe all ye Floridians!

Quoting 1075. StormTrackerScott:



These yellow's on radar over Apopka are heavy rain not moderate or even light rain.
I know the Lincoln radar up here in IL has a difficult time estimating precipitation rates. It only records about 50% of what actually falls, especially when our PWAT's are above 1.5-2".  Any tropical like rainfall, via small droplets, but high in volume, the radar just doesn't pick it up efficiently.
From my friend on Facebook...

Quoting 1048. CybrTeddy:



Extremely impressive.


Mmmmmm....donuts.
1106. Torito
Guillermo may be weakening... but it shouldn't be taken lightly. I hope everyone in Hawaii is prepared..


1107. Torito
Soudelor...



Most of that heavy Florida rain has missed me south of Gainesville. I have only gotten 2.5 inches from this wet spell. Other areas not that far away have gotten 4 times that. A friend of mine near Archer Florida got 10 inches in two days on top of a super wet July. Cross City got 10,5 inches in one day! Local rain showers moving off the Gulf have been happening for at least two weeks now although not nearly as intense as in the last 3 days.

No rain so far today. It looks like Tampa is getting everything today.
1109. hydrus
1110. Torito
GFS 168 hours out..



GFS end of run..

1111. ncstorm
Pasco Sheriff ‏@PascoSheriff 3m3 minutes ago

Sheriff Nocco: "Have a plan, leave work early, pick up the kids early if necessary. Be safe."


Pasco Sheriff ‏@PascoSheriff 30m30 minutes ago

41 calls for service this morning since 5:15 am regarding flooding.


Pasco Sheriff ‏@PascoSheriff 32m32 minutes ago

Anclote River expected to exceed last week's flood height. Anticipating 26.5 feet today of flood height. #pascoflooding
Quoting 1109. hydrus:




Totals divided by 5 still?
Quoting 1108. Wacahootaman:

Most of that heavy Florida rain has missed me south of Gainesville. I have only gotten 2.5 inches from this wet spell. Other areas not that far away have gotten 4 times that. A friend of mine near Archer Florida got 10 inches in two days on top of a super wet July. Cross City got 10,5 inches in one day! Local rain showers moving off the Gulf have been happening for at least two weeks now although not nearly as intense as in the last 3 days.

No rain so far today. It looks like Tampa is getting everything today.


Tampa certainly where it's at. 95L now designated causing all that ruckus.

We had a brief thunder storm pass through around 2:45AM early Saturday morning in Naples, other than that, drying out again since.

Hopefully we will see some afternoon rain maybe over the next couple days. The forecase certainly took back a lot of rain chances from a few days ago.


vis. convection has stretched all the way down to the yucatan. hopefully the low pressure takes that north with it.
This is getting really serious. My boss told me the garage at work was flooded (westshore blvd). My sister in law called to tell me to stay home they were shutting down her work on Hillsborough. And I just took this from Paul Dellegatto's face book page - Westshore and 275

img src=" photo flooding_zpsejew4qoa.jpg">
No incoming flights at TIA for the next 30 minutes due to weather. Not sure I'd want to be circling the airport in this.
1118. ncstorm
For those in the Tampa Bay area there is a live blog on the flooding in your area in the Tampa Bay Times..

Great information listed there regarding road closures, etc..

Does anyone with connections to the Tampa Bay NWS know what the criteria is for a flash flood warning is for the office. I'm really angry at them right now because I know some NWS radios are only set to transmit FFW's, and I think if it was to ever be issued, the time is now.
Quoting 1104. GeoffreyWPB:

From my friend on Facebook...




Can I steal that?
1122. Drakoen
GFS has been consistently showing the development of the wave currently over Mali and the Ivory Coast in Western Africa. Conditions are much more favorable for development off the coast of Africa thanks to a series of strong tropical waves that have cleared much of the SAL and upper level ridging beginning to dominate over the eastern Atlantic.

1123. Gearsts
You don't get this on the Atlantic.
Quoting 1122. Drakoen:

GFS has been consistently showing the development of the wave currently over Mali and the Ivory Coast in Western Africa. Conditions are much more favorable for development off the coast of Africa thanks to a series of strong tropical waves that have cleared much of the SAL and upper level ridging beginning to dominate over the eastern Atlantic.




Are any other model runs showing it. If not the GFS. ls a outliner
1126. ncstorm
Tampa Bay opening up shelters..not sure if for the homeless or those who are evacuating..

TampaPD
@TampaPD
Due to flooding conditions, the Salvation Army Red Shield Lodge, 1514 N. Florida Ave., is remaining open throughout the day.
I'll say it again...We need a storm in Atlantic..BADLY.Something like a Danielle (2010)
Up to 6.7" inches of rain for today. Finally, it has let up from being a torrential downpour to just moderate rain. We'll see if that lasts though.
Quoting 1107. Torito:

Soudelor...






Outer banding is quickly diminishing - definitely having annular characteristics now!
1131. Patrap
Global Climate Change Indicators

Introduction

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
Quoting 1122. Drakoen:

GFS has been consistently showing the development of the wave currently over Mali and the Ivory Coast in Western Africa. Conditions are much more favorable for development off the coast of Africa thanks to a series of strong tropical waves that have cleared much of the SAL and upper level ridging beginning to dominate over the eastern Atlantic.


It has a very good and defined spin too while it voyages westward over Guinea, Gambia, and Senegal. The wave is no joke, it's been bringing heavy rains to the countries it's passed over, no where to pass on the roads.
In N. Pinellas here - a baynews9 meteorologist clicked over my area and it had radar estimated 7.5" over the previous 12 hours - and that was 2 hours ago and it's still pouring with no end in sight. I saw a car stalled out in high water on the way to work as well. I thought the previous 7-10 days were ridiculous but today is even worse.
1136. Drakoen
Just updated HRRR now shows a max of 24.60". Model also shows another round tonight but a little further north. WOW!.

Quoting 20. LargoFl:

road closures.......................................... .....Tampa


•I-275 SB off-ramp exit 40A to Westshore Blvd. - Officially closed.
•Lake Ave between 46th St. and 48th St. -- Officially closed.
•Bayshore Boulevard between Rome Avenue and Platt Street
•Dale Mabry from Henderson to Clearview
•Armenia north of Busch
•Armenia and Herman
•Nebraska and Fern
•Hanna and 26th
•Robles Park to Adalee
•Himes and Tampa Bay
•Columbus between 40th and 50th starting to flood.
•50th Street and Adamo Drive
•21st Ave. from 39th St to 50th St.
•Manhattan Avenue at Bay-to-Bay Boulevard.
•MLK Blvd. southside at Tampania Avenue.
•22nd Street and Linebaugh Avenue.
•Linebaugh Avenue easte of Nebraska Avenue.
•9th Street and Linebaugh Avenue.
•Kennedy Boulevard. west of Meridian Avenue.
•Kennedy Boulevard between North B Street and Cypress Street.

Pasco


•Anclote River Estates area of Elfers has been ordered to evacuate.
•Little Road between Ridge Road and Massachusetts
•Little Rd at Jasmine Blvd.
•10110 US Hwy 19 N, Port Richey -- Shopping center has water up to the doors
•US 19 N and Fox Hollow -- Reports of car flooded
•Pennsylvania Ave and Madison -- Reports of car flooded
•Massachusetts Ave and Grand Blvd -- Reports of car flooded
•Courtney Campbell Causeway and McMullen Booth Road

PINELLAS


•Bayshore Drive in Safety Harbor - Reports of heavy flooding
•Gulf-to-Bay to McMullen Booth Road in Clearwater is closed due to standing water.
•State Road 60 and McMullen Booth Road - Reports of standing water.
•State Road 60 and Bayshore Road - Reports of standing water.

MANATEE

Bradenton Police Department announced the following closings:


•All of 9th Street West From 1700-3000 Block
•26th Street West from 9th Avenue to Manatee Avenue West
•Village Green Parkway - closed in entirety
•12th Street West - 200 to 400 block
•500 59th Street West
•500 26th Avenue West - Huge Pot Hole reported at 506 26th Avenue West
•9th Avenue West - 4100 - 4300 9th Avenue West
•700 Virginia Drive

Flooding on August 3

Quoting 1133. sonofagunn:

In N. Pinellas here - a baynews9 meteorologist clicked over my area and it had radar estimated 7.5" over the previous 12 hours - and that was 2 hours ago and it's still pouring with no end in sight. I saw a car stalled out in high water on the way to work as well. I thought the previous 7-10 days were ridiculous but today is even worse.


I'm in NW Hillsbrough and at 6.7" so far today. N Pinellas and NW Hillsborough have been absolutely hammered this morning.
Quoting 1128. tampabaymatt:

Up to 6.7" inches of rain for today. Finally, it has let up from being a torrential downpour to just moderate rain. We'll see if that lasts though.
NWS Tampa update says mcs will start diminishing soon. I'm pretty sure all available energy is worked out of the atmo
Quoting 1143. FLWeatherFreak91:

NWS Tampa update says mcs will start diminishing soon. I'm pretty sure all available energy is worked out of the atmo


I don't know another one maybe taking shape. Really looks like no end in sight. HRRR is hsowing another burst tonight but north of Tampa this go around.

12Z NAM suggest another big burst of convection is about to happen. North of Tampa
1147. Thrawst
Quoting 1093. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Soudelor has a closed ring of -80C convection. If the eye warms above 10C, an intensity of 165-170kt is attainable. Haiyan level.





What a beast. Someone said 895mb was unlikely? It's probably below that right now!
Quoting 1122. Drakoen:

GFS has been consistently showing the development of the wave currently over Mali and the Ivory Coast in Western Africa. Conditions are much more favorable for development off the coast of Africa thanks to a series of strong tropical waves that have cleared much of the SAL and upper level ridging beginning to dominate over the eastern Atlantic.




So we can expect something like TS ANA of 2009?
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2015 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 17:30:52 N Lon : 141:32:29 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 929.3mb/129.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 7.2 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +4.9C Cloud Region Temp : -80.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 115km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.9 degrees
1150. Gearsts
Quoting 1148. CaribBoy:



So we can expect something like TS ANA of 2009?
Flooding now beginning to happen just to my west over in Lake County as now nearly 3" have fallen.

1153. Drakoen
Quoting 1148. CaribBoy:



So we can expect something like TS ANA of 2009?


Hard to say at this point we still need something to actually develop first.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA CREATING A LARGE AREA OF
WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRONG COASTAL CONVERGENCE ONGOING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. STRONG U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PCPW
VALUES OF 2.25 TO 2.40 INCHES...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH HELPED INITIATE A LARGE MCS TO DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHING ONSHORE THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN. REPORTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES COMMON ACROSS NORTHWEST
HILLSBOROUGH...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTIES. THE
AREA OF RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD GRADUALLY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
It's reloading Tampa

Quoting 1154. tampabaymatt:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA CREATING A LARGE AREA OF
WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRONG COASTAL CONVERGENCE ONGOING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. STRONG U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PCPW
VALUES OF 2.25 TO 2.40 INCHES...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH HELPED INITIATE A LARGE MCS TO DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHING ONSHORE THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN. REPORTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES COMMON ACROSS NORTHWEST
HILLSBOROUGH...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTIES. THE
AREA OF RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD GRADUALLY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON.


I don't know about that Matt. If it winds down it won't be until later this afternoon but yet another big burst is coming tonight just a little north of you guys.
Quoting 1157. StormTrackerScott:



I don't know about that Matt. If it winds down it won't be until later this afternoon but yet another big burst is coming tonight just a little north of you guys.
Back to the "skunk ape". Do you think they're real? I think it's possible.
Soudelor's structure at the moment looks very reminiscent of both Haiyan (2013) and Rammasun (2014) right before the latter of the two hit China.
1163. Patrap
See, this is what HAPPENS when someone comment's on a News story without the link.

Chaos'

As for 95L, it's a great example to the "doomers" among us..as it never has to be a Cat 5 plus to do the nasty on a area, it just has to be wet and LINGER.

1164. Patrap
Problem solved?



Yeah, Kill it off, thats the Human way isnt it?

Climate change is like dat too.
Bay News 9 reports Ozona has reported over 9 inches already today.
1170. Grothar
Tampa skyline in the back

1172. PCCfan
Is 200 per permit supposed to mean 200 DOLLARS per permit?
Quoting 1159. Stormlover16:

Soudelor's structure at the moment looks very reminiscent of both Haiyan (2013) and Rammasun (2014) right before the latter of the two hit China.

Indeed. What I call a 'tungsten disc'.
With all the road closures in Pasco Co. I'm staying home today. I lay awake this morning watching the room light up and listening to thunder. Got up to dark and dreary. Stubborn, pesky system. I wanted to do some experiments with a solar wax melter and not a chance all week.
Quoting 1170. Grothar:

Tampa skyline in the back


looks a little wet today
Quoting 1166. StormTrackerScott:



I swear just a little a bit ago they said 200 per permit given.
Once this rain lets up, I'm going to get started on getting my 200. I want to be part of the solution!
Been keeping my Tropics blog updated. It's my 300th blog..

Tropics overall are really active. NOAA has Soudelor with a T# of 7.5!

95L is causing havoc. Bush Gardens is closed today even..

Here's some horses riding it out in Odessa. They don't do well standing in floods & these had their stalls flood out. Keep your horses on high ground today:)
From the twitter feed.
Quoting 1180. Skyepony:

Been keeping my Tropics blog updated. It's my 300th blog..

Tropics overall are really active. NOAA has Soudelor with a T# of 7.5!

95L is causing havoc. Bush Gardens is closed today even..

Here's some horses riding it out in Odessa. They don't do well standing in floods & these had their stalls flood out. Keep your horses on high ground today:)
From the twitter feed.

I'm in Odessa as well! Are you off racetrack?
Quoting 1167. BobinTampa:

Bay News 9 reports Ozona has reported over 9 inches already today.


And it is still coming down heavy, with the heaviest storms in the Gulf lined up to train over the area for the rest of the day. Sheriff's office is evacuating residents of one RV park at Tampa Rd/Alt 19 via jon boats.
www.portlight.org/home



Portlight Chairman Paul Timmons, aka "presslord" along with Marcie Roth at FEMA Headquarters,Washington D.C. last Thursday July 30th.

The Arlington Getting it Right Conference was held Friday and was a great success. The speakers were great and the day was a good learning experience for all attending.



The Celebration of the 25th anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act highlighted the great strides made since 1990.

Portlight is proud to have been a part of that celebration as the mission continues, with the latest news of our ever expanding mission to help those less fortunate and the disabled in times of Disaster.

With that, we are also proud to announce this from FEMA.



Portlight Strategies and FEMA Partner to Address Disability Accessibility and Disaster Preparedness

Main Content
Release date: JULY 30, 2015
Release Number: HQ-15-053



WASHINGTON – Today, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and Portlight Strategies (Portlight) announced an agreement that will increase preparedness awareness for people with disabilities in the event of natural or man-made disasters. The agreement aligns with FEMA’s commitment to inclusive emergency management by partnering with disability organizations and community leaders who serve the whole community at the local level.

“As we celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act, we are also reinforcing our commitment to serving the whole community before, during and after disasters,” said Craig Fugate, FEMA Administrator. “By having preparedness plans and thinking ahead, individuals, families and communities will be ready to respond to these events when they occur.”

The new partnership will bolster working relationships with state, local, tribal and territorial emergency managers to encourage including people with disabilities in planning. It will also provide information so people understand the disaster risks in their area. By evaluating their own individual needs and making an emergency plan that fits those needs, people can be better prepared.

Some key highlights from the agreement show that FEMA and Portlight will:

Participate in training events and natural and simulation exercises, drills, and discussions focused on emergency preparedness and lessening the impact of disasters;

Share operational practices that work well and that may be adapted to make improvements in service delivery and support community resilience and accessibility for people with disabilities and others with access and functional needs; and Share research-based emergency management data and information and training experience and expertise before, during, and after disasters.

"We're excited about this next important step in our relationship with FEMA and the ways it will enhance our ability to serve the disability community in times of disaster,” said Paul Timmons Jr., Portlight Co-founder and Board Chair. “It embodies our philosophy that there must be nothing about us without us.”

The primary mission of Portlight Strategies, Inc. (Portlight) is to provide disaster relief and recovery services specifically for people with disabilities and to facilitate accessible services—compliant with the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA)—from all providers, whether governmental or non-governmental.

###

FEMA's mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from and mitigate all hazards.

Follow FEMA online at www.fema.gov/blog, www.twitter.com/fema, www.facebook.com/fema and www.youtube.com/fema. Also, follow Administrator Craig Fugate's activities at www.twitter.com/craigatfema.

The social media links provided are for reference only. FEMA does not endorse any non-government websites, companies or applications.

Also,

As we enter into the Heart of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season, we remind everyone to have a plan, a destination for evacuation and all supplies needed to ensure you and yours are ready and safe, should a Hurricane threaten your area.

Hurricane Preparation 2015

We want to thank the extended Portlight Family for all you do as well as those who support us financially and with volunteering too.



Wow at Soudelor. I knew it would look impressive when I got up, but didn't expect it to look that good!

The UKMET is still predicting a tropical storm to form from 95L as it moves off the east coast and north out to sea.

The CMC is showing low pressure where the GFS develops the TW coming off Africa in 5 days time and the UKMET shows a broad area of low pressure too. Something to keep an eye on considering conditions should be favourable for the wave when it comes off and the fact it looks to be such a vigorous one!
Quoting 1182. FLWeatherFreak91:

I'm in Odessa as well! Are you off racetrack?

No I got this off the twitter feed..I'm back in Melbourne. Saw some of 95L coming through South GA & North Florida yesterday. Need to go get my barn ready for another round of rain. Had ~4 inches last weekend. A friend not a 1/4 mile away had 7 inches. I may pick up a nice mare later today to keep for a while. The barn she is at is so under muck and mud from all the rain lately the owner has got to get a few of them out of there. The horse shuffling to keep the hoofs somewhat dry from all of this is well under way across Central Florida.
1190. MahFL
This river just went into moderate flood stage :

Looks like the energy is draining from this thing. Should be pretty light rain from now on.
13W/STY/S/C5
1194. beell
2 hr loop capture from JAX. 9:15-11:15 AM EDT.

Quoting 1175. cynvision:

With all the road closures in Pasco Co. I'm staying home today. I lay awake this morning watching the room light up and listening to thunder. Got up to dark and dreary. Stubborn, pesky system. I wanted to do some experiments with a solar wax melter and not a chance all week.
Your plans can wait. Florida's ground and surface water supplies are being increased. This is a blessing regardless of any inconvenience it causes us. In fact a tropical wave is the most "user friendly"delivery method to receive significant precipitation. So give thanks and be glad!
1196. ChiThom
With all the flooding in Florida, our little storm seems anti-climactic, but last night on our way home from Wisconsin, we ran into the heaviest downpour either of us have ever seen while driving on the expressway. We were going about thirty miles per hour, and could barely see the road, driving instead by taillight. I wish people wouldn't use their emergency flashers during storms because the flashing taillights in the blinding rain just makes things worse. I just heard that the roof came off the High School in Grays Lake Central, in northern Illinois, as we were driving by. It was a tornado or micro-burst, I'm not sure which. Lots of branches down, but no damage to our house anyway.
We beat the storm by driving about thirty-five, then forty mph. when possible. At my house the ground was dry, but the rain and damaging wind hit our house a half-hour later. We got over an inch in ten minutes!
Just wanted to tell everyone that the extreme weather is not only in Fla.
1197. Patrap


HRRR shows redevelopment over the eastern gulf at 10 hours. I don't buy it. The low is now over NW Florida, and I highly doubt the atmosphere will have time to destabilize today.
Quoting 1191. BobinTampa:

Looks like the energy is draining from this thing. Should be pretty light rain from now on.



Does seem to be weakening a little bit. The radar loop posted by Keeper seems to show the low moving NE. So, maybe, finally there is an end in sight to this insanity.
Quoting 1198. FLWeatherFreak91:

HRRR shows redevelopment over the eastern gulf at 10 hours. I don't buy it. The low is now over NW Florida, and I highly doubt the atmosphere will have time to destabilize today.


Who knows. Right when you think we're out of the woods we get nailed again. However, it does seem like the low is finally pulling away, so it will take the energy with it.
1201. RickWPB
Why do some people post models of possible storm formation way out 384 hours. That's 16 days!
1202. ricderr

With all the flooding in Florida, our little storm seems anti-climatic, but last night on our way home from Wisconsin, we ran into the heaviest downpour either of us have ever seen while driving on the expressway. We were going about thirty miles per hour, and could barely see the road, driving instead by taillight. I wish people wouldn't use their emergency flashers during storms because the flashing taillights in the blinding rain just makes things worse. I just heard that the roof came off the High School in Grays Lake Central, in northern Illinois. It was a tornado or micro-burst, I'm not sure which.
We beat the storm by driving about thirty-five, then forty mph. when possible. At my house the ground was dry, but the rain and damaging wind hit our house a half-hour later. We got over an inch in ten minutes!
Just wanted to tell everyone that the extreme weather is not only in Fla.


it's not however since most of the active posters in this blog are from florida it often seems that way.....

1203. ricderr
Why do some people post models of possible storm formation way out 384 hours. That's 16 days!


because that one time out of 100 that it actually pans out...they can claim......FIRST
Just checking for a update. Thank you eveyone for letting us know how you are doing. Hopefully this lets up for you.
1205. vis0
Its obvious that the  engine of the "10% chance of disturbance" has stalled as its become dehydrate will someone flood its engine so it can start ...HOPEFULLY stay as a low TS and bring rain to SAR2401 & Grothar and several other thousands that need rain in near Northern Florida/SE US ofA


oh wait for a TS/hurr to run smoother it needs the drier center ...oh well joke didn't match reality

Quoting 1201. RickWPB:

Why do some people post models of possible storm formation way out 384 hours. That's 16 days!



for guidance I guess
but maybe to show something that they think may come too pass
but 9 times out of 10 those depictions rarely verified
can be fun to check back and watch to see if it moves up over time
from run too run but they mostly fade away chasing ghost storms
1207. MahFL
Quoting 1198. FLWeatherFreak91:

HRRR shows redevelopment over the eastern gulf at 10 hours. I don't buy it. The low is now over NW Florida, and I highly doubt the atmosphere will have time to destabilize today.


The low is actually over NE Fl.
could we be in a catch 22 situation
Quoting 1201. RickWPB:

Why do some people post models of possible storm formation way out 384 hours. That's 16 days!



Because they like to have the future told, however unreliable it turns out to be. Fortunetellers and palm readers also have entertainment value.

Ensemble means do have skill this far out for probability of formation and also for large scale pattern changes. A number of deterministic runs initialized at different times also creates a temporal ensemble with analagous skill improvement over a single run i.e. if six consecutive deterministic runs are saying about same thing two weeks out .. start paying attention.
Quoting 1207. MahFL:



The low is actually over NE Fl.
Oops. The weather has my brain all capsized
95L/INV/XX/XX
1212. beell
Quoting 1201. RickWPB:

Why do some people post models of possible storm formation way out 384 hours. That's 16 days!



Same reason kids (of all ages) dream of snow on Christmas day?
1213. MahFL
Meanwhile Guillermo perked up a bit :

Well, emptied close to 4" out of the feed buckets this morn....most of that probably from before midnite when the skies opened up for about an hour.....I see most of that has shifted south towards Tampa.

Been rain free all morn w/ peeks of sunshine here & there....we'll see how long that lasts into today
Pasco County EM ‏@Pasco_FL_OEM · 33m33 minutes ago
Sheriff asks that citizens attempt to be OFF the road and home by 3:00 p.m. as flood waters will be at worst
#pasco #pascoflooding #flooding

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (1513)
0:00 AM JST August 4 2015
=========================
near Mariana Islands

At 15:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Soudelor (915 hPa) located at 17.6N 141.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 18.9N 136.9E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Okinotori-shima waters
Quoting 1191. BobinTampa:

Looks like the energy is draining from this thing. Should be pretty light rain from now on.



Not yet. I thought there was clearing too, but heavier rain coming in from the WNW
Bob, it's Monday, 94L does not exist anymore...what's with 96L?
1220. Grothar
Quoting 1205. vis0:

Its obvious that the  engine of the "10% chance of disturbance" has stalled as its become dehydrate will someone flood its engine so it can start ...HOPEFULLY stay as a low TS and bring rain to SAR2401 & Grothar and several other thousands that need rain in near Northern Florida/SE US ofA


oh wait for a TS/hurr to run smoother it needs the drier center ...oh well joke didn't match reality




It will never rain here again. Not a drop.
Quoting 1203. ricderr:

Why do some people post models of possible storm formation way out 384 hours. That's 16 days!


because that one time out of 100 that it actually pans out...they can claim......FIRST


Wouldn't the model be claiming first?

I don't regard anyone copying and pasting model content as a 'forecaster' lol.

They just like to see themselves post.
Quoting 1213. MahFL:

Meanwhile Guillermo perked up a bit :
br
1223. MahFL
From a Local Storm Report :

"REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF PARKING LOTS ON THE
CAMPUS OF UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA."
1224. SuzK
Quoting 1201. RickWPB:

Why do some people post models of possible storm formation way out 384 hours. That's 16 days!



You might be surprised how many way-out-there forecasts come around as something...maybe not a major hurricane to thrill the audience, but many times I have watched and waited and seen it, or something like it, come around weeks later. For instance, there was predicted over a week ago, 3 simultaneous little lows on and around FL, which has happened since then. No it wasn't doom, but yes, those little lows have wreaked a bit of havoc. Way out forcasting is computerized, not wishful thinking or foolish predicting. At least give it the credit of putting it out there. No one stones computers for being wrong, or have I been missing something?
1225. sar2401
Quoting 1205. vis0:

Its obvious that the  engine of the "10% chance of disturbance" has stalled as its become dehydrate will someone flood its engine so it can start ...HOPEFULLY stay as a low TS and bring rain to SAR2401 & Grothar and several other thousands that need rain in near Northern Florida/SE US ofA


oh wait for a TS/hurr to run smoother it needs the drier center ...oh well joke didn't match reality


The low itself, which has very little convection, is moving into SE Georgia. The blob that's caused all the trouble will diminish today as the low moves further away and the effects of the NW flow lessen. There's lots of dry air north of the stalled front but not over me. The temperature in Birmingham is 90 with a dewpoint of 58. It's 93 here with a dewpoint of 79, and it looks like the drier air is not going to make it any further south. The track of the low is perfect to cut me off from any source of convection, so I just get to roast and sweat while some areas of central Florida get to paddle their canoes down the street.

It should now be time for a new blog and make this the last post....
Quoting 1219. dixiesam:

Bob, it's Monday, 94L does not exist anymore...what's with 96L?


no 96L current inv 95L
sure there will be a new post soon
1227. MahFL
1033 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE HUDSON 28.37N 82.69W
08/03/2015 M7.50 INCH PASCO FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORT OF 7.5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
MIDNIGHT. RAIN SOAKED GROUND TOPPLED TREES AND POWER
LINES.
Quoting 1220. Grothar:



It will never rain here again. Not a drop.
I don't know I think there is a plan not sure yet
Quoting 1218. Hurricanes101:



Not yet. I thought there was clearing too, but heavier rain coming in from the WNW


the yellows and reds on radar are disappearing pretty quickly. They'll probably be pretty close to completely gone in an hour or so.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The low is creeping off to NE FL but it's not taking the rest of the mess with it :D Yesterday's discussion said this would move away Monday, today's says Tuesday. All I suspect is when we're done the vegetation is going to go crazy. Sharpen up your DR Brushmowers.
1233. vis0

Quoting 942. Patrap:



Indeed, as I have always had trouble with those two.


duck {noun}

and {m/f}

Well now, I know a lot of times we act like ducks, but you're not a duck.

Ja, jeg vet at mange ganger så opptrer vi som ender, men du er ikke en and.

Latin was so much easier back in da day,remember?
que? ; -P