WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Hurricane Dolores Hits Category 4 Strength

By: Bob Henson 7:37 PM GMT on July 15, 2015

A pulse of rapid intensification late Tuesday and early Wednesday pushed Hurricane Dolores to borderline Category 4 intensity in the Northeast Pacific. Dolores’s peak winds surged from 85 mph at 3:00 pm EDT Tuesday to 130 mph at 3:00 am Wednesday, which translates to a leap from Category 1 to Category 4 status in just 12 hours. The rapid intensification leveled off this morning, with Dolores’s peak winds at 9:00 am EDT Wednesday holding at 130 mph. Dolores is now heading west-northwest at 6 mph on a track somewhat south of earlier predictions, which will keep the hurricane over warmer water for a longer period. Dolores has a well-defined eye surrounded by strong thunderstorms, although the coldest cloud tops around the eye have warmed somewhat over the last few hours. Dolores is currently over 29°C (84°F) water, and vertical wind shear is quite low (5 – 10 knots). Some additional strengthening is thus possible later today into Thursday, although Dolores may not reach Category 5 strength unless another rapid intensification cycle gets under way; such cycles remain difficult to predict. By Friday morning, the center of Dolores should be moving over SSTs cooler than 26°C, with a gradual weakening expected thereafter.


Figure 1. An image of Hurricane Dolores collected by the GOES-East satellite at 1445 GMT (10:45 am EDT) on Wednesday, July 15. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.


Figure 2. Infrared image of Hurricane Dolores from GOES-East, collected at 1800 GMT (2:00 pm EDT) on Wednesday, July 15. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.


Earliest trio of Category 4s on record for Northeast Pacific
Of the season’s first four named storms in the Northeast Pacific, only Carlos has fallen short of Category 4 strength. Dolores is the earliest occurrence of the season’s third Cat 4 system in this basin, beating out Hurricane Frank, which became a Cat 4 on July 17, 1992. Northeast Pacific records go back to 1949. (Thanks to Brian McNoldy, University of Miami/RSMAS, for this factoid). It’s also the first time that three of the first four named systems in the Northeast Pacific have all reached Category 4 intensity. Dolores’s record comes no major surprise, given the persistently favorable wind shear and very high sea-surface temperatures induced by a strong and still-intensifying El Niño event. As noted by Michael Ventrice (WSI), a very strong pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation has influenced the eastern tropical Pacific for the last few weeks, enhancing the upward motion that fuels hurricane development. This MJO event is now subsiding, but the presence of a strong El Niño continues to favor above-average activity in the Northeast Pacific.

Especially noteworthy with this El Niño is the northward extent of the unusually warm water off Baja California and the U.S. Pacific states, meeting up with the “blob” of warm water off the Canadian west coast that’s persisted for months (Figure 3). Even with these impressive anomalies, SSTs are still far too cool to support tropical development immediately off the California coast. However, the zone of SSTs greater than 26°C, which is considered the threshold for maintaining a tropical cyclone, now extends several hundred miles further north than usual. This lays the groundwork for any hurricane recurving toward the southwest U.S. to maintain its strength longer than usual, all else being equal. Of course, the particulars of any given storm (its strength, structure, upper-level support, etc.) will determine how much of an impact might result. Over the next few weeks, residents of southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico will need to keep tabs on any hurricanes whose track would take remnants in their direction, as the risk for heavy rain, flash flooding, and even tropical-storm force winds could be elevated by the presence of such warm SSTs upstream.



Figure 3. Sea-surface temperatures (top) and anomalies (bottom) over the northeast Pacific Ocean, averaged for the week ending on Monday, July 13. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.


A weakening Typhoon Nangka approaches Japan
Dry air has taken its toll on Typhoon Nangka as it continues moving north-northwest at about 15 mph toward Japan. As of 1500 GMT (11:00 am EDT) on Wednesday, Nangka was located about 430 miles south-southwest of Iwakuni, Japan, with sustained winds now down to around 90 mph. Although wind shear remains low along Nangka’s immediate path (10 knots or less) and SSTs are above 26°C (79°F), the typhoon has been ingesting dry air from the west, eroding the convection on the left side of the eye over the last few hours. A strong ridge to the northeast of Nangka should keep the hurricane on a north-northwest bearing until landfall on Saturday local time near the islands of Shikoku and western Honshu. This track would put some of Japan’s biggest cities on the more dangerous eastern side of Nangka, so the weakening trend is good news indeed. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Nangka to be a Category 1 storm at landfall. As noted by The Weather Channel’s Jon Erdman, heavy rains, high winds, and some power outages can be expected in the cities of Kyoto, Kobe, and Osaka, as Nangka comes ashore and encounters Japan’s mountainous islands. Further to the north, Tokyo may experience tropical-storm-level impacts. The north-northwestward path of the storm is nearly perpendicular to the coastline, which would maximize any coastal flooding from Nangka (a major storm surge is not expected, though).

Halola still on course for Japan
With top sustained winds of 85 mph, Typhoon Halola continues its steady trek west-northwest trek through the Northwest Pacific at about 17 mph. As of 11:00 am EDT Wednesday, Halola was located about 175 miles southeast of Wake Island. It now appears Halola will remain weak enough and far enough south of Wake Island to avoid major impacts there. Wind shear has kept Halola from strengthening as much as expected, but the shear should relax in a couple of days, which will give Halola a chance to intensify atop very warm SSTs. Halola could approach Japan next week, although the long-range GFS and ECMWF models suggest the typhoon will recurve before that point.

Elsewhere in the Pacific and Atlantic
The leisurely demise of Tropical Storm Enrique continues in the remote Northeast Pacific, about 1500 miles west of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Enrique’s top winds are 45 mph, and slow weakening is expected, with dissipation in the next couple of days.

There are no systems of interest in the Atlantic basin, and prospects are minimal for any tropical development there for at least the next several days.

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments



Hurricane Dolores
Thaks for the update Bob.
Thanks for the new blog, Mr. Henson.

Three confirmed tornadoes in Nashville WFO's range of influence last two days. Must be interesting for the surveyors to pick out tornado damage, this region of the state was walloped in the winter by a severe ice storm, the evidence of which was plain to see when I passed through on Saturday.

What a storm that blew through West Palm Beach earlier. Transformer east blew, FPL shifted power to west transformer. It was so strange, no lightning, just very, very strong winds. If I didn't know better, I would swear a small tornado blew through.
Dr. Marshall Shepherd has a new, interesting blog out here about his thoughts on a lack of weather readiness in the nation, Pluto, and the sensationalized solar study that came out recently. I recommend a read of his blog.
There are no systems of interest in the Atlantic basin, and prospects are minimal for any tropical development there for at least the next several days.


and you can hear the screams even from el paso.......NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!

Thanks for the New Post, Bob, Small Rain chance???
I wonder why no one is mentioning Dolores's impact on Socorro Island....there's a couple hundred people that live there and it appears it's going to take a direct hit from a major hurricane which, by satellite appearance, is strengthening again with a very symmetrical, warming eye.

A strong cat 4 seems likely.
Quoting 5. GeoffreyWPB:

What a storm that blew through West Palm Beach earlier. Transformer east blew, FPL shifted power to west transformer. It was so strange, no lightning, just very, very strong winds. If I didn't know better, I would swear a small tornado blew through.


What has been odd here is the intensity of some passing tropical showers. Typically in this type of pattern we'll see nice heavy showers and a fresh breeze with the onshore flow convection, but not what seems to have happened lately with it. Both yesterday and today there have been passing cells have producing startling strong cloud to ground lightning episodes and a lot of it along with very strong winds. One cell just moved in from Largo and was producing strong CG blasts every few seconds and we had gusts over 40 mph, not what I would expect from these little clusters of low topped convection moving onshore.


you all have fun now..............
Quoting 10. pipelines:

I wonder why no one is mentioning Dolores's impact on Socorro Island....there's a couple hundred people that live there and it appears it's going to take a direct hit from a major hurricane which, by satellite appearance, is strengthening again with a very symmetrical, warming eye.

A strong cat 4 seems likely.


I would say no one is much talking about the island because that island is hit repeatedly, year after year, and the occupants are quite used to hurricane preparation.

(also because it's not the USofA, so people tend to not notice as much)
Socorro Island, Mexico wunderpage

Tough crowd for a Weds too.

: )
Thank You Mr. Henson; as to the post below as to Socorro Island, I agree; I would hope/assume that the Mexican navy evacuated those folks:

Socorro Island (Spanish: Isla Socorro) is a small volcanic island in the Revillagigedo Islands, a Mexican possession lying some 600 kilometers off the country's western coast at 18°48'N, 110°59'W. The size is 16.5 by 11.5 km, with an area of 132 km2. It is the largest of the four islands of the Revillagigedo Archipelago. There is a naval station 18.728°N 110.952°W, established in 1957, with a population of 250 (staff and families), living in a village with a church, that stands on the western side of Bahia Vargas Lozano, a small cove with a rocky beach, about 800 meters east of Cabo Regla, the southernmost point of the island. The station is served by a dock, a local helipad and airport Isla Socorro, located six kilometers to the north, at 18.773°N 110.931°W. 



No need to evacuate off Socorro as they are very Cane savvy,

They jus evac up, in elevation when needed.



The station is located on Isla Socorro—its Spanish name—which is a 132 km² volcanic island in the Revillagigedo Islands, off Mexico’s western coast. A shield volcano that last erupted in 1993, the island rises abruptly out of the sea to an altitude of 1,050 m (3,445 ft.). Its terrain is full of furrows, small craters and ravines, and covered in lava domes, lava flows and cinder cones.

The Mexican Navy supported site construction by making boats available for transport.
Socorro Island was discovered by Spanish explorer Hernando de Grijalva on Christmas Day 1533. Rediscovered in 1608, it was named Isla Socorro ("Island of Aid") by explorer Martín Yañez de Armida. Much later, in the early 20th century, Barton Warren Evermann, Director of the California Academy of Sciences in San Francisco, began promoting the scientific exploration of the island, which is located 440 km southwest of Baja California’s southernmost point and 700 km from the Mexican mainland. Nowadays, the waters around Socorro Island are a popular destination for divers, especially for its large manta rays.

The waters around Socorro Island are renowned for their large manta rays. Photo: David McMurdie.
In the 1960s Socorro Island —along with Nord in Greenland, Easter Island, Heard Island in the Indian Ocean and Mawson Station on Antarctica — was a station in the Earth-girdling satellite triangulation programme set up by the United States Coast and Geodetic Survey. This early space-based geodetic system was a forerunner of today's Global Positioning System (GPS).
Today there is a naval station on Socorro Island, which was established in 1957 and has a population of 250 staff and families. They live in a village on the west side of Bahia Vargas Lozano, a small cove with a rocky beach, about 800 metres east of Cabo Regla, the southernmost point of the island. The Mexican Navy supported the site construction and installations at HA06 by making boats available to transport personnel and equipment.
Station Profile

Aerial view of HA06's shore facility.
HA06 covers large parts of the North Pacific Ocean. The hydroacoustic T-phase facilities on Socorro Island are part of a new IMS station for which the site survey was carried out in 1999. As a result of the collaboration between the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) and the Geophysical Institute of the University of Mexico (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, UNAM), three element sites are part of the T-phase facility of Socorro Island.

One of HA06's seismometer that can detect hydroacoustic waves that are converted to seismic waves when they hit the shore.
It uses seismometers to detect hydroacoustic waves that are converted to seismic waves when they hit the shore of an island. Each element site consists of three principal sub-structures: a data acquisition system, power supply system and satellite communications system. The remoteness of Socorro Island from major human settlements or traffic allows precise measurement results.


Quoting 11. Jedkins01:



What has been odd here is the intensity of some passing tropical showers. Typically in this type of pattern we'll see nice heavy showers and a fresh breeze with the onshore flow convection, but not what seems to have happened lately with it. Both yesterday and today there have been passing cells have producing startling strong cloud to ground lightning episodes and a lot of it along with very strong winds. One cell just moved in from Largo and was producing strong CG blasts every few seconds and we had gusts over 40 mph, not what I would expect from these little clusters of low topped convection moving onshore.


How low were those tops. Above the minimum glaciation layer? Electrification of a pure water cloud would be especially interesting although I don't even pretend to understand cloud electrification. I did think it needed ice crystals or was much more effective if they were present.

Incidentally cloud droplets usually supercool until they are well below 0C. Once ice is present it will scavenge water vapor and may also shatter into efficient ice nuclei rapidly freezing out the supercooled part of the cloud.

The process above, freezing of a supercooled droplet and shattering into ice crystals which then multiply, often makes holes in decks of solid altostratus or broken altocumulus. Below the hole a streak of falling ice crystals is often visible.

For an example of new science advance slow to be accepted in the meteorological community look at the acceptance of warm process rain theory in the 1930s. Prior to that time it was thought that all rain formed from melted ice crystals and the idea that it could form in warm clouds was considered herasy.
According to these latest images, Socorro Island is currently in the eye wall of Delores with possible passage of the eye over the Island.  A double whammy if that happens with eye wall winds coming before and after the eye:





Quoting 14. Patrap:

Socorro Island, Mexico wunderpage

Tough crowd for a Weds too.

: )


Socorro Island. "Help Island," in English, probably well named.

Thanks for the informative blog Bob Henson.

In Spain we are on our 11th day of a heat wave which is the second longest in the last 40 years of records. We might get a day of cooler weather buy all of 1/C on Friday, then its back to the possible record breaker.
Appears Delores is just going to miss the island ..

With the satt updates, the loops below (over the next 2 hours) will give us a look at whether the eyewall or eye makes it over/on Socorro.

I hear the comment below from Patrap on the folks their evacuating "up" presumably because of storm surge issues. However, as the winds usually increase a bit from the ground up, I hope that they can evacuate into sturdy shelters that can withstand strong winds in excess of 100 knots:
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 115.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
Quoting 22. weathermanwannabe:

With the satt updates, the loops below (over the next 2 hours) will give us a look at whether the eyewall or eye makes it over/on Socorro.

I hear the comment below from Patrap on the folks their evacuating "up" presumably because of storm surge issues. However, as the winds usually increase a bit from the ground up, I hope that they can evacuate into sturdy shelters that can withstand strong winds in excess of 100 knots:
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 115.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.



It going to be very close, just a bit of a wobble would slide the eye over them for a short time .. or the wall of the eye which is where the strongest winds occur ..
Quoting 7. ricderr:

There are no systems of interest in the Atlantic basin, and prospects are minimal for any tropical development there for at least the next several days.


and you can hear the screams even from el paso.......NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!





As a homeowner in the mid atlantic this is great news. May it continue. Now if I could do something about tornadoes, derechoes , hail, downbursts, lightning and flash floods I'd feel even better.
Quoting 24. whitewabit:



It going to be very close, just a bit of a wobble would slide the eye over them for a short time .. or the wall of the eye which is where the strongest winds occur ..


NHC just updated their info; very close call indeed:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015

...EYE OF DOLORES APPROACHING SOCORRO ISLAND...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dolores was located
near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 110.6 West. Dolores is moving
toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. A turn
toward the west is forecast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dolores is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity
are possible through Thursday, but weakening is forecast Thursday
night and Friday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). An automated station on Socorro Island recently
reported a wind gust of 59 mph (96 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

palm trees look like they ran a marathon. three days of bad afternoon thunderstorms. e.cen.florida
Surge is not problematic for Socorro Island as most of the energy and wave force goes around the island, as it has no long stretches of coastline for it to pileup and rise.


Cloud vortices near there in this file image.




12z GFS Ensembles


12z CMC Ensembles
Quoting 24. whitewabit:



It going to be very close, just a bit of a wobble would slide the eye over them for a short time .. or the wall of the eye which is where the strongest winds occur ..


As a side note, some of the largest yellowfin tuna on Earth are caught in the area, including the world record;
Linkhe world record:
Nangka looks to be about 12-18 hours from landfall. Definitely weaker but should more or less maintain this intensity up to landfall.

Nice Healthy wave





Quoting 23. tampabaymatt:




Model guidance is trending upward with rainfall amounts, the WPC is quite a bit lower than guidance, especially for the Tampa Bay area.
Quoting 17. georgevandenberghe:



How low were those tops. Above the minimum glaciation layer? Electrification of a pure water cloud would be especially interesting although I don't even pretend to understand cloud electrification. I did think it needed ice crystals or was much more effective if they were present.

Incidentally cloud droplets usually supercool until they are well below 0C. Once ice is present it will scavenge water vapor and may also shatter into efficient ice nuclei rapidly freezing out the supercooled part of the cloud.

The process above, freezing of a supercooled droplet and shattering into ice crystals which then multiply, often makes holes in decks of solid altostratus or broken altocumulus. Below the hole a streak of falling ice crystals is often visible.

For an example of new science advance slow to be accepted in the meteorological community look at the acceptance of warm process rain theory in the 1930s. Prior to that time it was thought that all rain formed from melted ice crystals and the idea that it could form in warm clouds was considered herasy.



I'm not sure, but due to their fast speed and not having a major lifting trigger, their tops were probably 20-30 K ft, which is low for around here. Regardless, I just got 0.81 in only 7-10 minutes and very gusty winds easily 35-45 mph with one of these low topped cells. The outflow boundary was impressive almost like a shelf cloud. I've found that really tropical airmasses seem to give lower topped cells a much bigger kick than usual. Likely due to the warm rain process.

And speaking of the warm rain process, since warm air can hold a lot more water vapor, the warmer in height a shower or thunderstorm is, the heavier the rainfall rate potential due to a potentially larger volume of water vapor that is rising, cooling, and condensing. The warm rain process has become very important in meteorology for understanding very heavy rainfall rates. Tropical cyclones are the pinnacle of this ability.

The cell that just moved through reminded me just like a tropical cyclone rain band, it was moving about 45 mph, so very short lived, but man did it pack some very gusty winds and a cloud burst of rain for the little time that we had it.
One of the most hot and humid days I've felt in a while, whew!
Quoting 29. ncstorm:

12z GFS Ensembles


12z CMC Ensembles



Perhaps we'll get something like TD 2 from last year?

MSAT satt updated; looks to me like Socorro is on the edge of the eyewall:


Quoting 37. Envoirment:



Perhaps we'll get something like TD 2 from last year?




Possibly..

Quoting 10. pipelines:

I wonder why no one is mentioning Dolores's impact on Socorro Island....there's a couple hundred people that live there and it appears it's going to take a direct hit from a major hurricane which, by satellite appearance, is strengthening again with a very symmetrical, warming eye.

A strong cat 4 seems likely.


How high is the island and what is its coastline line? i.e. How survivable is it there?
Gonna head home and hoping any folks on Socorro are in adequate shelter; this loop is good through 5:30 PM EST and does not show the eyewall in contact with the island yet but every wobble counts as noted earlier.
Everyone else stay weather safe this evening.  See Yall in the am.

ROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLC. ITS AXIS IS
APPROXIMATELY ALONG 31W AND MOVES W AT NEARLY 5-10 KT PER DAY.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP MOIST
ENVIRONMENT E OF ITS AXIS AND A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AHEAD
OF IT. ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST ENGULFING THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W AND 34W BEING SUPPORTED BY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY ALONG 57W...MOVING W AT 20 KT PER DAY. SSMI TPW
AND ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT IMAGERY INDICATE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT TO THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS HINDERING
CONVECTION. DUST IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT AS
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS BEING REPORTED THROUGH THE
LESSER ANTILLES.
Quoting 42. JustDucky251:



How high is the island and what is its coastline line? i.e. How survivable is it there?


Sorry. Started at the beginning and didn't see subsequent entries.
with the sat delay Delores is already past the island and doesn't appear that the eye went over the island so may not be considered a landfall ..

Quoting 41. ncstorm:



Possibly..


Maybe even a surprise Cat. 1.
Quoting 36. TCweatherman:

One of the most hot and humid days I've felt in a while, whew!


Same here, 83F and 60% humidity. Am watching some big t-storms forming right now. Hopefully no tornadoes tonight...
Quoting 47. HurricaneAndre:

Maybe even a surprise Cat. 1.

But, more than likely, nothing will come of the disturbance as it tracks westward into an environment of high wind shear and an abundance of dry air/dust.
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.





There are no systems of interest in the Atlantic basin, and prospects are minimal for any tropical development there for at least the next several days.
So where do you live at?
Quoting 49. Frasersgrove:



Same here, 83F and 60% humidity. Am watching some big t-storms forming right now. Hopefully no tornadoes tonight...
300 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015Convective tops have been warming very gradually around Dolores's
eye since this morning. Satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T5.5/6.0, and given the infrared satellite trends, the initial
intensity is lowered slightly to 110 kt. Dolores is moving over
very warm 29-30 degrees Celsius water, but it will soon be
traversing a tight SST gradient once it passes Socorro Island.
Thus, the hurricane only has a small window to re-intensify before
reaching colder water. Gradual weakening is now forecast during the
next 24 hours, followed by faster weakening for the remainder of the
forecast period. This forecast is very close to a blend of the
SHIPS and LGEM models, especially early in the forecast period, and
is lower than the previous forecasts since Dolores has not
restrengthened.Dolores is located to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone, and
the initial motion estimate is 290/5 kt. A ridge is expected to
build westward from the anticyclone during the next couple of days,
which should force Dolores to turn westward by 48 hours. After
that time, there remains a notable spread in the track guidance,
with the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL showing a sharper turn toward the
north and the GFS and HWRF keeping the cyclone farther south. The
updated NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the right
and lies about midway between the previous forecast and the various
consensus models.
NOVA: Chasing Pluto will be airing tonight, 9 p.m. at most PBS stations. Check your PBS station if interested.

Yes of course it's always possible to get a storm of this intensity during an El Nino year such as this.
Quoting 57. HurriHistory:


Yes of course it's always possible to get a storm of this intensity during an El Nino year such as this.


Mitch was a 1998 storm and the atmosphere was rapidly transitioning to La Nina conditions that fall. The 1998 season was active.

1992 was an El Nino year and we had Andrew. So I guess we could have a storm like Mitch as well.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 6h6 hours ago
Since June 1, westerly winds have been stronger in the Central Pacific than any year on record (since 1979).

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 6h6 hours ago
@philklotzbach what about since May or April?

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 5h5 hours ago
@EricBlake12 Virtual dead heat since April 1 with 1997. 2015 is slightly ahead with stronger surface westerlie
Quoting 59. HurriHistory:


1992 was an El Nino year and we had Andrew. So I guess we could have a storm like Mitch as well.

The 1992 season began with a borderline El Nino that quickly transitioned to a cool Neutral ENSO by August and beyond.
Isla Socorro is most literally translated as Succor Island, not "help/aid" (ayuda) since there is also the sense of "relief".
The larger concern with an El Nino this strong will come during the Winter months, but it does not mean we cannot get something to threaten from the tropics.

Just hope some are not giving their hopes up in terms of an active season.
Here we go again.
Nice line of thunderstorms currently going across central Alabama.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
259 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015

..........
THE NEXT ITEM OF CONCERN OR AT LEAST SOMETHING TO FOCUS IN ON WILL
BE THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DOLORES. THE NEW MODEL RUNS DID NOT
HELP WITH MODEL CONSENSUS...THAT IS FOR SURE. THE GFS TAKES THE
OVERALL TRACK WELL TO THE WEST...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS IT CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND ACTUALLY HAS A LARGER PUSH OF MOISTURE OVER THE CWA.
GIVEN THE BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES DECIDED TO LEAVE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS IS. THAT BEING SAID...CURRENT FORECAST WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH BAY THROUGH MONTEREY/SAN BENITO.

Given the ECMWF's track record as exemplified by Sandy, I'm inclined to think we will be getting some wet here in California.
Quoting 64. Gearsts:

Here we go again.



I pointed that out on here earlier as negative anomalies rose several degrees Celsius to now plus 3C in just 13 days. Insane and this will likely we be on of the strongest kelvin Waves we've seen in recent memory building thanks to the record WWB & record MJO.
Quoting 33. Jedkins01:



Model guidance is trending upward with rainfall amounts, the WPC is quite a bit lower than guidance, especially for the Tampa Bay area.


Euro isn't messing around for the next 15 days as it is showing the wettest pattern across FL since the big deluge of September 2014. Looking like a significant period of heavy rains across FL for the next several weeks.
Quoting 64. Gearsts:

Here we go again.



Hyperbole aside, it's pretty interesting to watch the changes in the ocean slowly unfold after each of these WWB events. Curious to see how strong the anomalies get.
Where can I find the precipitation accumulation forecasts?
This El-Nino is more like the "King Pin" El Chapo of the Pacific.

Stay on topic ... No monomania.
Very dry for Texas and California according to the latest GFS.

18z

Quoting 76. ncstorm:

18z




Too much dust ncstorm. I think we need Molly Maids out across the Atlantic. Maid company here in Orlando
Quoting 73. whitewabit:
Stay on topic ... No monomania.

Unless, of course, we had a storm named "Mono" -
With nothing across the MDR until 2016 atleast S FL finally getting some decent rains!

Water vapor view shows Delores just sliding to the east of Socorro Island

Quoting 77. HurricaneAndre:

Are you guys having problems with your identification with your Facebook account. I am and I can't get into my Facebook account neither.


I thought FB was a thing of the past.

Dean gave Jamica a bad time.

Emily was nothing to sneeze at.

Now it you remember Joan had two lives. She became Miriam when she crossed into the Pacific. This type of event does not occur that often.

Alicia broke a lot of glass windows in Huston Texas if you may recall.
Dad was recalling 1979 today when he found an old National Geographic book article about Frederic.

That year had 9 storms but





These guys forgot to care
Quoting 89. JrWeathermanFL:

Dad was recalling 1979 today when he found an old National Geographic book article about Frederic.

That year had 9 storms but





These guys forgot to care
Was near Moore Haven/Lake Okeechobee when David hit. We had sustained winds of 50 to 60 mph with gusts around 80 mph for 10 hours. It was cool when the first band hit. It went from a typical hot sunny day to gale force winds in about 60 seconds. You could see the huge dark band with the Sun hitting the huge towers racing toward us .it was quite a sight.
Quoting 87. HurriHistory:


Now it you remember Joan had two lives. She became Miriam when she crossed into the Pacific. This type of event does not occur that often.
I have an old sat pic of Joan when she was a strong 4 in the Caribbean..If I can get it out of storage some day maybe i can post it.
Quoting 83. Bucsboltsfan:



I thought FB was a thing of the past.


Yes it won't remember my password on iphone! Has been doing this for a few days. Glad you r having same issue, probably means its a glitch on their end
Quoting 82. whitewabit:

Water vapor view shows Delores just sliding to the east of Socorro Island




The island has certainly been experiencing the southern eye wall of the hurricane for a while now. The reporting station has been down for many hours now. It was reporting winds of 51mph gusting to 61mph, then went haywire and no current (accurate) observations have been available since around mid-afternoon.
Quoting 93. HurrMichaelOrl:



The island has certainly been experiencing the southern eye wall of the hurricane for a while now. The reporting station has been down for many hours now. It was reporting winds of 51mph gusting to 61mph, then went haywire and no current (accurate) observations have been available since around mid-afternoon.


its really hard to tell if any of the eye wall went over the island but they have been experiencing those winds for hours now .. almost looks like it slid around to the back side of the island and the eye got bigger then .. hope they are in sturdy buildings if the army garrison there wasn't evacuated .. even 60 miles an hour winds can be very destructive blowing that long at that constant wind speed ..
Quoting 51. GeoffreyWPB:



Dry as Bone, Parody of Bad to the Bone

From the first day of the season,
The bloggers gathered round,
To stare in wide wonder,
For what might be found.

The mets spoke up,
And everyone groaned,
You see the Atlantic,
It's dry as bone,

D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
Dry as a bone.

The forecast broke hearts,
The shear and El Nino,
It'll break a thousand more baby,
Before it's El Fino,

We wanna named storm,
Where's the MJO,
Guess it don't matter,
It's dry as a bone.

D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
Dry as a bone.

We got high pressure,
The Saharan dust blowin,
The only tropical waves,
Come from the ships off shorin',
It's still hot and humid,
But not a single cloud shown,
Watching the Pacific,
Cuz' it's dry as a bone.

Quoting 95. Xyrus2000:


Dry as Bone, Parody of Bad to the Bone

From the first day of the season,
The bloggers gathered round,
To stare in wide wonder,
For what might be found.

The mets spoke up,
And everyone groaned,
You see the Atlantic,
It's dry as bone,

D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
Dry as a bone.

The forecast broke hearts,
The shear and El Nino,
It'll break a thousand more baby,
Before it's El Fino,

We wanna named storm,
Where's the MJO,
Guess it don't matter,
It's dry as a bone.

D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
Dry as a bone.

We got high pressure,
The Saharan dust blowin,
The only tropical waves,
Come from the ships off shorin',
It's still hot and humid,
But not a single cloud shown,
Watching the Pacific,
Cuz' it's dry as a bone.




Xyrus, did you make this? It's brilliant!
Xyrus- I am waiting for the youtube version. Let me know when you post it.

I've done a lot of song lyric parodies, Xyrus, and love yours... very good and well done, indeed. :-)

Jo
High heat warning for tomorrow....supposed to hit 87 to 91.
Quoting 74. hydrus:

Very dry for Texas and California according to the latest GFS.




isnt california usually incredibly dry during July
Quoting 83. Bucsboltsfan:



I thought FB was a thing of the past.



andre what do you mean by identification
Quoting 95. Xyrus2000:


Dry as Bone, Parody of Bad to the Bone

From the first day of the season,
The bloggers gathered round,
To stare in wide wonder,
For what might be found.

The mets spoke up,
And everyone groaned,
You see the Atlantic,
It's dry as bone,

D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
Dry as a bone.

The forecast broke hearts,
The shear and El Nino,
It'll break a thousand more baby,
Before it's El Fino,

We wanna named storm,
Where's the MJO,
Guess it don't matter,
It's dry as a bone.

D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
Dry as a bone.

We got high pressure,
The Saharan dust blowin,
The only tropical waves,
Come from the ships off shorin',
It's still hot and humid,
But not a single cloud shown,
Watching the Pacific,
Cuz' it's dry as a bone.





EXCELLENT! Do one to Another One Bites The Dust
Good Morning all..more ensembles showing up on the central atlantic disturbance..

107. MahFL
Quoting 103. nwobilderburg:



isnt california usually incredibly dry during July


Yes it's the dry season for CA.
00z UKMET picking up on the Central Atlantic Disturbance..

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 10.9N 39.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 17.07.2015 11.5N 39.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.07.2015 11.7N 41.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.07.2015 11.7N 42.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.07.2015 12.4N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.07.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


I also keep getting a pop up for a username and password to log in into NOAA..I think its Hurrihistory posts..
110. MahFL
Quoting 10. pipelines:

I wonder why no one is mentioning Dolores's impact on Socorro Island....there's a couple hundred people that live there and it appears it's going to take a direct hit from a major hurricane which, by satellite appearance, is strengthening again with a very symmetrical, warming eye.

A strong cat 4 seems likely.


Because they are used to it. Your not going to see 100's of people on rooftops etc etc.
112. MahFL
Anyone else having problems with the composite radar loops blacking out from Wunderground ?
very impressive tropical wave in the central atlantic. GFS shows nothing in the atlantic until august but if waves are going to look this good, it will be a matter of time before we get 1 or 2 of them to develop during the peak of the season, especially if the MDR continues to warm up a bit. positive sign nonetheless
deep convection out there 10 degrees north itz
Quoting 117. wunderweatherman123:

very impressive tropical wave in the central atlantic. GFS shows nothing in the atlantic until august but if waves are going to look this good, it will be a matter of time before we get 1 or 2 of them to develop during the peak of the season, especially if the MDR continues to warm up a bit. positive sign nonetheless



Nope. The MDR is closed this year. Dos not Matter if it warms. Up a bit. It will still be dealing. With high wind shear and high SAL. And dust. You guys need too get this in your. Heads the MDR is closed. Please stop thinking about some in with pop up there. It won't happen. This year. All so. Dos not Matter if we are getting too the peak of the season. It is this vary unfavorable out there has it has been most of the season so far. And that won't chages one bit.


Look closer too home if you want to track storms this year


Or track storms in the W C Or E PAC that's the got spot this year. Not the MDR
Quoting 112. MahFL:

Anyone else having problems with the composite radar loops blacking out from Wunderground ?


Yes, same thing is happening to me.
Quoting 112. MahFL:

Anyone else having problems with the composite radar loops blacking out from Wunderground ?

If you're looking at a TDWR radar site, and there's threatening weather near the airport that it serves, the TDWR (Terminal Dopler Weather Radar) goes into a hazardous scan mode of the area that may be affected by departing or landing aircraft. Any hazardous radar return wouldn't be viewed by the public, just air traffic controllers. You would see a dark pie section during that portion.


Lots of heavy rain on the way for Tampa.
respectively disagree taz i think we might have an early mdr season then right after second week in sept nothing then on.
00z CMC showing a possible depression for the potential setup in the central atlantic

00z Euro in long range..work calls..

Weak lows coming off Africa..





A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY ALONG 36W FROM 08N TO 19N MOVING W AT 20-25 KT.
TPW IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP MOIST
ENVIRONMENT MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS. METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOW
SAHARAN DRY AIR ALSO IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE ALONG THE
NORTHERN HALF OF IT WHICH REMAINS CONVECTION-FREE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 30W-40W SUPPORTED BY
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AT THE
SURFACE.




DOOM


i see lots of rain around 30 west to 40 west!!
Well woke up to the yard underwater. Thank God our Florida dirt can handle it. This one storm's been sitting on us for hours


Pretty healthy wave under the circumstances
Quoting 96. Astrometeor:



Xyrus, did you make this? It's brilliant!


Thanks. Late night blog reading mixed with a bit of silliness. :)
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
845 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015

FLC037-045-161445-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FA.Y.0022.150716T1245Z-150716T1445Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
FRANKLIN FL-GULF FL-
845 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...
GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EDT/945 AM CDT/

* AT 843 AM EDT /743 AM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. UP TO THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PORT ST. JOE...EASTPOINT...APALACHICOLA...WEWAHITCHKA...HIG HLAND
VIEW...ODENA...APALACHICOLA AIRPORT...BUCK SIDING...BAY CITY...
HONEYVILLE...HOWARD CREEK...ELEVEN MILE...OVERSTREET...SIMMONS
BAYOU...NINE MILE...WILLIS LANDING...WARD RIDGE...SAINT JOE
BEACH...MILLTOWN AND FORT GADSDEN.

132. JRRP
Hundreds and hundreds of trees went down here in Columbus Wisconsin about four in the morning Monday. Winds were sustained for close to half an hour at 90-110mph. Have a great view from my second story window, was surreal. Rushed family to tornado safety area, but when I realized it was straight line winds I went back to look. Was amazing, worst weather related event in the city's history. Town was shut down for two days. Power poles down across town and almost every side road was shut for two days as help from across the county came to help. Many of the city's largest trees are now gone. Lightening was so intense that it was a continuous yellow outside. Four inches of rain fell at my location in a forty minute period. Was in a tornado as a young kid, but this was the most intense weather I've ever seen. 100 plus mph winds were absolutely amazing to watch. Nothing short of scary. Only looked for one or two minutes, was absolutely unreal, was not going to look longer as an embedded tornado was not out of the question. Got back to the family and hunkered down. Couldn't believe how long it lasted.
Finally one made it, haha!
Quoting 128. JrWeathermanFL:



Pretty healthy wave under the circumstances
Good Morning!

Although the Atlantic 2015 Hurricane Season is slower in tropical activity .. than the Pacific.... it is still a waiting game.

In the Atlantic basin, we have already observed 3 named tropical storms, and 2 landfalls.

It is only mid-July, so ... for an El Nino year, not so bad.

July ..... Stand-by.
August - beware - - you must!
September - Remember!

Not saying we are going to get hit by a "Major" during this El Nino or a "slower" year, but we have seen it happen in the past: Betsy, Carmen, Eloise, Frederic and David, Alicia, Bob, Andrew.

It is possible the Gulf Coast or Florida could be hit by a hurricane this year.

Anything can happen, and looking back at the "uneventful" year 2009 - another El Nino year, Hurricane Ida became a Cat 2 hurricane in the Gulf, and it was November!

So, don't put away your hurricane supplies yet ....







Quoting 95. Xyrus2000:


Dry as Bone, Parody of Bad to the Bone

From the first day of the season,
The bloggers gathered round,
To stare in wide wonder,
For what might be found.

The mets spoke up,
And everyone groaned,
You see the Atlantic,
It's dry as bone,

D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
Dry as a bone.

The forecast broke hearts,
The shear and El Nino,
It'll break a thousand more baby,
Before it's El Fino,

We wanna named storm,
Where's the MJO,
Guess it don't matter,
It's dry as a bone.

D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
D-d-d-dry,
Dry as a bone.

We got high pressure,
The Saharan dust blowin,
The only tropical waves,
Come from the ships off shorin',
It's still hot and humid,
But not a single cloud shown,
Watching the Pacific,
Cuz' it's dry as a bone.




I had to scroll back after I saw Astros post. Thought I would make it easier for others. Great work
Good Morning. Socorro has a small Mexican Navy detachment on the Island (250 people) and they are hopefully fine; someone will post the info later today on how they fared (perhaps Mr. Henson or Dr. Masters). The storm (see image below from yesterday) eyewall grazed the side of the Island but the eye never made landfall; how bad the graze was is unknown but I am sure that folks evacuated away from that part of the Island; don't know how the trees, plants, and animals fared...............

shear from an upper level trough to the east of the CATL wave will prevent organization of this disturbance. however if the trough were to move away from the wave, this will enable some form of cyclogenesis. although most of the bloggers seem to hold on to what they have been reading about El Nino, it is not cast in stone that the MDR will be very dormant this season. time is the only deciding factor and one should not let their guard done.
Yeah sure...

Hi all. Scorching heatwave, entering Europe from Spain once again, pushes temps up to 40C (104F) in France.

Stressed Italian cows get air-conditioned sheds to combat heatwave
Published: 9:17 PM, July 16, 2015
ROME (Reuters) - Italian farmers are installing showers and air conditioning in cowsheds and pigsties to allow the animals to freshen up in the baking summer heat, an agriculture group said today (July 16).
Farm animals in Italy - particularly in the muggy agricultural heartland around the Po river near Milan - are under stress as the mercury approaches 40C in the hottest July for more than a decade.
"The situation is worrying, particularly in the Po Valley which has the highest concentration of barns that have been kitted out with fans, small showers and air conditioners to cool down cows and pigs," farming group Coldiretti said. ...


Scientists hunt climate change in Berlin parks
The Local (Germany) Published: 16 Jul 2015 14:09 GMT 02:00
Scientists at Berlin's Technical University (TU) will spend three years investigating the effects of climate change in Berlin and Brandenburg as maintaining the green spaces in and around the capital becomes increasingly difficult. ...

Swiss heatwave causes variety of problems
Jul 16, 2015 - 13:54
Sun worshippers may be appreciating the current heatwave in Switzerland, but soaring temperatures over the past few weeks, which have regularly exceeded 30 degrees Celsius, are giving the authorities headaches for a range of reasons.
A spate of swimming accidents, the increased risk of forest fires and issues at nuclear and solar energy plants have been blamed on the hot summer.
Swiss public television, RTS, has reported that the nuclear power stations at Muehleberg, Beznau and Leibstadt have been forced to reduce power output to avoid heating up the Rhine and Aare rivers with their waste water. ....
TURIN - NEW RECORD WARMEST NIGHT: The record all-time warmest overnight minimum temperature in Turin, Italy of 27.1 C / 80.8 F was reportedly set at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics station on the night of July 15-16, 2015. Turin is the home of the Shroud of Turin, the headquarters of automobile manufacturers FIAT & Alfa Romeo, and was the host of the 2006 Winter Olympics.

Link
I've been watching the Tour De France this morning and they've been showing some pretty decent sized hail stones coming down near the finish line. I'd say some of the hail stones are about nickle size.
Another storm popping-up at my house 25 miles west of Chicago. This is the rainiest early summer I've seen; the cherries cracked after 4" of rain, and got moldy on the tree; the pool has algae and the water is too cold for swimming, about 72 degrees even with the solar cover on it. Our pool party has been delayed again!
On the plus side, we haven't had to use the A/C nor have we had to water the garden. On the other hand, I am rained-out of work again. It's hard to plan for windows and siding when it rains every other day.
06z GFS ensembles

Recent heatwave killed 700 people in France
The Local (France) Published: 16 Jul 2015 10:36 GMT+02:00
The sweltering heatwave that hit France earlier this month was responsible for the deaths of 700 people, the Ministry of Health confirmed on Thursday.
The heatwave that hit France between the 29th of June and the 5th of July left 700 dead, the ministry announced on Thursday.
The figures were taken from the fact that there were seven percent more deaths registered in France during this period than at the same time last year.
Almost 3,600 people were hospitalized during the heatwave, while almost 1,500 people saw their local GP after suffering from the heat, the ministry added. ...


July heatwave caused 447 extra deaths in the UK
London Evening Standard, July 14, 2015
Hundreds more people died as temperatures hit a record high in Britain this month, official figures show.
A total of 9,205 fatalities were registered in the week ending July 3 — including 901 in London — compared with an average of 8,758 for the same period over the previous five years.
The extra 447 deaths across the country came in a week when Britain experienced its hottest July day on record, with temperatures reaching 36.7C (98F). ...
Northern Hemisphere temperature extremes, both hot and cold, due to jet stream issues and prolonged blocking patterns is one of the consistently modeled "foot prints" expected during global warming periods. We will continue to see these type of heat events and record cold events (along with related precipitation issues) globally in the coming decades.
I know how to drum up some activity in the GOM..... Oil prices keep falling recently.
In terms of Nangka, the storm is around minimal Cat 1 status as it heads into Japan; good news for them in terms of wind damage. The bad news is that it has become an extremely "wet" storm; the equivalent of a very large rainmaking tropical storm; there is going to be substantial flooding and mudslide dangers. Flash flooding, particularly in the valleys of the Japanese mountains, may result in some deaths and loss of property (including livestock) as Nangka is only moving at 10 knots currently.




WTPN33 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 053
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 32.9N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Rain totals are building fast in the Tampa Bay area. Some areas have received 2 inches of rain already today. More storms are coming in from the Gulf, with no end in sight to this pattern.
hmmmmmmmmmm.........

Commodity Wx Group ‏@commoditywx 8m8 minutes ago
Latest NOAA outlook for winter surprisingly doesn't show strongest El Niño super-warm winter answer. Hedging a bit?

Quoting 156. tampabaymatt:



Already looks like the rain to the north of tampa is starting to fizzle and storms firing more to the south. Looking like another dry day here in Sanford
Quoting 156. tampabaymatt:




Very little lightning so far, which is kind of a nice change.
well...as you can see....for california........warmer than average temperatures...and lower chances for increased precip in the northern section.........does not bode well for snowpack and drought recovery.......may another long range model be wrong!
Quoting 164. ricderr:




Hopefully less clipper/Miller B crap systems we saw last year and more in the way of Miller A development with an active subtropical jet stream.
Quoting 168. Drakoen:



Hopefully less clipper/Miller B crap systems we saw last year and more in the way of Miller A development with an active subtropical jet stream.
What's a miller A and B?
Quoting 168. Drakoen:



Hopefully less clipper/Miller B crap systems we saw last year and more in the way of Miller A development with an active subtropical jet stream.
Yes please!
In terms of the tropical Atlantic, things are usually quiet in this July to mid-August period before the Cape Verde period; have no idea if we may get a storm closer to the US between now and then. But will note, as I have for the past several weeks, that Africa continues to produce some robust African Easterly Waves partially driven by continued rainfall in the Sahel and some SAL retreat in recent weeks. That wave out there now is too low, latitude wise, to get the coreolis effect going but a good example of a healthy wave train this year regardless of potential development in the coming 60 days.


Quoting 169. Gearsts:

What's a miller A and B?


With Miller A cyclogenesis an area of low pressure (usually along a cold front) forms in the Gulf of Mexico and tracks along/off the east coast following the jet stream flow.

Miller B, you have an area of low pressure that originates from Canada moving through MidWest, following the northern branch of the jet stream, that eventually forms a secondary area of low pressure off the east coast as the northern and southern branches of the jet stream phase.
Quoting 168. Drakoen:



Hopefully less clipper/Miller B crap systems we saw last year and more in the way of Miller A development with an active subtropical jet stream.


Looks like a typical El Nino, with almost all of the Sierra above average, with only the smaller mountains like the Warners, Trinity Alps, Marbles etc. in the very northern part of the State normal.

I'll take it.
Gee"

It be a wunderblog.



SYNOPSIS 2015071500

P06L
9N, 0E/W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Weak wave-pouch. The only period P06L is a consistent pouch is not until 72-96, once P06L has moved over the Atlantic; otherwise it is just a wave with scattered tiny OW maxima. Pouch moisture increases and shear decreases over the period, but only modestly. P06L moves off the western edge of my working map after 108 hours.

GFS: Easier to track than in ECMWF, although the track is still erratic while over western Africa, which is common. Slower than in ECMWF. Moisture modestly rises for a few days while P06L comes off of Africa, then it decreases past 30W. Interestingly, while deep shear remains low, pouch shear increase a little. Becomes just a SW-NE oriented trough after 84 hours, and I stop tracking after 108 hours because it dissipates.

UKMET:

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -11.5 0.0 v700 108h
GFS -10.3 0.0 v700 108h
UKMET
NAVGEM
HWGEN



977 mb low its that a hurricane!


Hurricane DOLORES on Satellite at 11am EDT on July 16, 2015
Quoting 176. Drakoen:



With Miller A cyclogenesis an area of low pressure (usually along a cold front) forms in the Gulf of Mexico and tracks along/off the east coast following the jet stream flow.

Miller B, you have an area of low pressure that originates from Canada moving through MidWest, following the northern branch of the jet stream, that eventually forms a secondary area of low pressure off the east coast as the northern and southern branches of the jet stream phase.


To add to it,

Miller A systems tend to produce severe weather and heavier snowfalls due to much higher moisture content and better aligned wind fields.

Miller B systems typically bring only a couple inches of snow, due to the drier nature of the low.



Hurricane DOLORES still got a eye to this hurricane
Quoting 182. tornadodude:




To add to it,

Miller A systems tend to produce severe weather and heavier snowfalls due to much higher moisture content and better aligned wind fields.

Miller B systems typically bring only a couple inches of snow, due to the drier nature of the low.


True. The worst is to be in the region between the low making it's transition where the dry slot forms. But Miller B's can still usher in a lot of snow (see Boston last year) after the secondary low matures.
M 6.4 - 116km NE of Bathsheba, Barbados
Time
2015-07-16 15:16:31 UTC
Location
13.829°N 58.641°W
Depth
5.6 km
Quoting 184. Drakoen:



True. The worst is to be in the region between the low making it's transition where the dry slot forms. But Miller B's can still usher in a lot of snow (see Boston last year) after the secondary low matures.


Exactly. This is especially true in the Midwest/Great Lakes.

Yeah when that secondary low gets cranking, the NE gets slammed.
187. viman
WEXX32 PAAQ 161522
TIBATE

PUBLIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
1122 AM AST THU JUL 16 2015

...THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR THE U.S. AND CANADA
EAST COASTS/ GULF OF MEXICO STATES/PUERTO RICO/ THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...

EVALUATION
----------
* THERE IS NO TSUNAMI DANGER FOR THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE.

* BASED ON EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION AND HISTORIC TSUNAMI RECORDS
THE EARTHQUAKE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE A TSUNAMI.

* AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH PARAMETERS LISTED BELOW.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* MAGNITUDE 6.5
* ORIGIN TIME 1117 EDT JUL 16 2015
1117 AST JUL 16 2015
1017 CDT JUL 16 2015
1517 UTC JUL 16 2015
* COORDINATES 14.0 NORTH 58.5 WEST
* DEPTH 14 MILES
* LOCATION NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------
* THIS WILL BE THE ONLY U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER
MESSAGE FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

* REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

* CARIBBEAN COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE PUERTO RICO... U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC
TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

$$



here we go!!
Quoting 188. hurricanes2018:



here we go!!
Not really
Quoting 150. barbamz:

Recent heatwave killed 700 people in France
The Local (France) Published: 16 Jul 2015 10:36 GMT+02:00
The sweltering heatwave that hit France earlier this month was responsible for the deaths of 700 people, the Ministry of Health confirmed on Thursday.
The heatwave that hit France between the 29th of June and the 5th of July left 700 dead, the ministry announced on Thursday.
The figures were taken from the fact that there were seven percent more deaths registered in France during this period than at the same time last year.
Almost 3,600 people were hospitalized during the heatwave, while almost 1,500 people saw their local GP after suffering from the heat, the ministry added. ...


July heatwave caused 447 extra deaths in the UK
London Evening Standard, July 14, 2015
Hundreds more people died as temperatures hit a record high in Britain this month, official figures show.
A total of 9,205 fatalities were registered in the week ending July 3 — including 901 in London — compared with an average of 8,758 for the same period over the previous five years.
The extra 447 deaths across the country came in a week when Britain experienced its hottest July day on record, with temperatures reaching 36.7C (98F). ...


Nothing like the 70,000+ deaths in the 2003 European heat wave, but still bad.

Looks like they were more prepared for it this time--as well they should be from now on.


In terms of the Florida Blob/Frontal remnant just off the Panhandle, shear is pretty high over this area but there is no upper level low adjacent to it that is either causing the convective flare-up or interfering with potential development. With no model support, it's a coin flip. If the convection persists for the next 24, and it festers there, anything could happen. Or, it could all dissipate and flare out by tonight:

The shear:


The "Look":


Upper Level:
From the 805 am EDT NHC Disco


DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA REACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 23N96W TO 20N96W. ALOFT...AN
ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTENDS INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED CONVECTION S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-96W. A MID TO UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER E TEXAS WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE ACROSS
THE GULF TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS
OVER THE NW GULF SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN.
SURFACE RIDGING AND LIGHT FLOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



Looks like a typical El Nino, with almost all of the Sierra above average, with only the smaller mountains like the Warners, Trinity Alps, Marbles etc. in the very northern part of the State normal.

I'll take it.



i think the concern will be the warmer than average temps....could limit snowpack
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach
The North Pac (NW + NE) has already generated more ACE this year (254) than 2012 thru 2014 in the Atlantic (235).
Quoting 151. weathermanwannabe:

Northern Hemisphere temperature extremes, both hot and cold, due to jet stream issues and prolonged blocking patterns is one of the consistently modeled "foot prints" expected during global warming periods. We will continue to see these type of heat events and record cold events (along with related precipitation issues) globally in the coming decades.
Dr. Jennifer Francis gives the short version:

Understanding the Jet Stream Changes

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1019 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2015

.UPDATE...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING 10-20% ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL S/W
APPROACHING THE AREA,SEVERAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
AREA INCLUDING INTERACTIONS WITH LAKE AND SEA BREEZES WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MAIN DEVELOPMENT STARTING AROUND NOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

12Z SNDG (MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS) CONVECTIVE INDICES
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH H50 TEMPS ABOUT NORMAL AND MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, IF SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 90S,
THE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH. HAIL IS LESS LIKELY GIVEN MID LEVELS HAVE WARMED SOME AND
LAPSE RATES BUT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED GIVEN APPROACHING UPR LVL
S/W. AGAIN, IT WILL ALL DEPEND HOW MUCH WE WARM UP. SO AMENDED HWO
AND GRIDS TO TRIM BACK A BIT THE THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORMS BUT STILL LEFT MENTION OF THEM IN THERE.

WATERSPOUTS POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG PERSISTING
BOUNDARY FROM MOUTH OF BISCAYNE BAY NE TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BROWARD. BUT THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS DISRUPTING AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY.
Maybe Felicia and Guillermo. If more 2 storm forms before July ends, will break the 1985's record of 7 named storms formed in July.

Quoting 199. pablosyn:

Maybe Felicia and Guillermo. If more 2 storm forms before July ends, will break the 1985's record of 7 named storms formed in July.





7? where did 7? come from we olny had TD 4E wish dos not cont has a E PAC name storm we had 2 TS wish dos not count has a E PAC storm has they where in the C PAC so the olny two real storms we had this july in the E PAC are DOLORES and ENRIQUE and if we get 2 more be for the end of july that would make 4 name storms for july not 7 for the E PAC
Eastern North Pacific
Andres 01E (125, ACE= 19.13, May)
Blanca 02E (120, ACE= 20.7475, June)
Carlos 03E (80, ACE= 9.16, June)
Ela 04E (35, ACE= 0.3675, July)
Dolores 05E (*, ACE= 2.7825*, July)
Enrique 06E (*, ACE= *, July)
... Significant weather advisory for frequent to excessive lightning
for northeastern Broward and southeastern Palm Beach counties until
115 PM EDT...

* at 1237 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm over Sea Ranch Lakes... or over
Lauderdale-by-the-Sea... moving north at 15 mph.

* The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning. Gusty
winds up 40 mph are also possible. Lightning is the number one
weather related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer
no protection. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm
passes.

* Locations impacted include...
Fort Lauderdale... Pompano Beach... Boca Raton... Deerfield Beach...
Boynton Beach... Delray Beach... Tamarac... Lighthouse Point...
Lauderdale-by-the-Sea... Highland Beach... Lauderhill... Coconut
Creek... Oakland Park... Lauderdale Lakes... Wilton Manors... Hillsboro
Beach... Sea Ranch Lakes... Lazy Lake... Golden heights and Twin
Lakes.
Quoting 200. Tazmanian:




7? where did 7? come from we olny had TD 4E wish dos not cont has a E PAC name storm we had 2 TS wish dos not count has a E PAC storm has they where in the C PAC so the olny two real storms we had this july in the E PAC are DOLORES and ENRIQUE and if we get 2 more be for the end of july that would make 4 name storms for july not 7 for the E PAC

Ekeka and Hali, and look...a record.

Quoting 202. ricderr:

Eastern North Pacific
Andres 01E (125, ACE= 19.13, May)
Blanca 02E (120, ACE= 20.7475, June)
Carlos 03E (80, ACE= 9.16, June)
Ela 04E (35, ACE= 0.3675, July)
Dolores 05E (*, ACE= 2.7825*, July)
Enrique 06E (*, ACE= *, July)


agine Ela dos not cont has a E PAC name storm TD 4E may cont for the E PAC but it did not get named in tell the C PAC so there for Ela dos not cont has a E PAC name storm


here the cont for july


C PAC 3 name storms

E PAC 2 name storm if we get 2 more for july we will have 4 name storms for the E PAC


so i will keep saying where is 7 name storms comeing from ?? the E PAC and C PAC has there own name storms and there own cont for the moth of july
Here in Fort Lauderdale, we are going through a very severe thunderstorm winds gusting to TS force… Flooding coming all the way up to my door, and the lightning is crazy! FINALLY SOME ACTION here in SE Florida.
Quoting 185. WaterWitch11:

M 6.4 - 116km NE of Bathsheba, Barbados
Time
2015-07-16 15:16:31 UTC
Location
13.829°N 58.641°W
Depth
5.6 km

Felt it at home. Living in St. Michael Barbados.
Quoting 207. LemieT:


Felt it at home. Living in St. Michael Barbados.


there have been three earthquakes a 5.3, 6.4, and 5.2


: )

agine Ela dos not cont has a E PAC name storm TD 4E may cont for the E PAC but it did not get named in tell the C PAC so there for Ela dos not cont has a E PAC name storm


here the cont for july


C PAC 3 name storms

E PAC 2 name storm if we get 2 more for july we will have 4 name storms for the E PAC


so i will keep saying where is 7 name storms comeing from ?? the E PAC and C PAC has there own name storms and there own cont for the moth of july



i guess that's a fight you will have to take up with the NHC....i'm going to go with their count however
here taz...this might help you.......

Interestingly, Ela began as Tropical Depression Four-E – a designation pertaining to the Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone basin – because the National Hurricane Center determined that it became a tropical cyclone just east of the 140-degree West longitude benchmark. By the time NHC issued its first advisory, though, the depression had already drifted over that invisible line into the Central Pacific basin, which is where it became a tropical storm and therefore took its name from the Central Pacific naming list and not the Eastern Pacific list. According to hurricane specialist Michael Lowry, this has happened three other times since 1949, including Lala in 1984, Iniki in 1992 and Lana in 2009.
duplicate post
Storms are blowing up fast....

... Significant weather advisory for frequent to excessive lightning
and 45 to 55 mph winds for northeastern Broward and southeastern Palm
Beach counties until 145 PM EDT...

* at 100 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm over Boca Raton... moving north at 10 mph.

* The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and
gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather
related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no
protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches...
and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe
building until the storm passes.

* Locations impacted include...
Boca Raton... Deerfield Beach... Boynton Beach... Delray Beach...
Highland Beach... Ocean Ridge... Lantana... Hillsboro Beach... Boca del
Mar... Hypoluxo... South Palm Beach... Gulf Stream... Briny Breezes...
Manalapan and fau south Campus.

But then all of Ela's ACE would count for the CPAC right? Since even though it was numbered in the EPAC, it was not given an EPAC name.
RapidScat showing a weaK low pressure near 10N 35W in an association with a well defined tropical wave.


That last wave's just kinda moistening everything up.

I think the wave in front could've used some of that ahead of it...





SYNOPSIS 2015071500

P06L
9N, 0E/W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Weak wave-pouch. The only period P06L is a consistent pouch is not until 72-96, once P06L has moved over the Atlantic; otherwise it is just a wave with scattered tiny OW maxima. Pouch moisture increases and shear decreases over the period, but only modestly. P06L moves off the western edge of my working map after 108 hours.

GFS: Easier to track than in ECMWF, although the track is still erratic while over western Africa, which is common. Slower than in ECMWF. Moisture modestly rises for a few days while P06L comes off of Africa, then it decreases past 30W. Interestingly, while deep shear remains low, pouch shear increase a little. Becomes just a SW-NE oriented trough after 84 hours, and I stop tracking after 108 hours because it dissipates.
Quoting 214. JrWeathermanFL:

But then all of Ela's ACE would count for the CPAC right? Since even though it was numbered in the EPAC, it was not given an EPAC name.


It's split. Whatever ACE was generated while Ela was in the East Pacific would go to the East Pacific ACE total (in this case zero) and the ACE generated when the storm was in the Central Pacific goes toward the Central Pacific ACE total. This goes for any storm that crosses basins, even if they were given a name from the East Pacific list.
Quoting 214. JrWeathermanFL:

But then all of Ela's ACE would count for the CPAC right? Since even though it was numbered in the EPAC, it was not given an EPAC name.


I would think you would split it..any ACE that occurs in the EPAC counts towards the EPAC, and any that occurs in the CPAC counts for the CPAC.
Life in the central atlantic, is the world coming to an end or something?

Here is the latest look for Nangka; the core of the current rains remain over the Southern end of Japan:
news: someone in Chattanooga Tenn shot up an naval center there..one officer down, many shots fired.
WDPN33 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 53//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM SOUTHEAST
OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED 28 NM EYE. A 161226Z AMSU-B IMAGE
REVEALS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LLCC AND SOME LOSS OF CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE AND THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 65 KNOTS DUE TO DVORAK ESTIMATES
AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE JAPANESE COASTLINE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE 10 KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY VWS IS PARTIALLY OFFSET
BY MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING
THE STR AXIS TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
STR AXIS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DECAYING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
BY TAU 24, TY 11W WILL RE-EMERGE IN THE SEA OF JAPAN AND CONTINUE TO
DECAY DUE TO COOL SSTS AND HIGHER VWS. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST TURNING TO EASTWARD BY TAU 48, AS TY NANGKA ROUNDS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STR. FURTHER DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR AS TY 11W TRACKS THROUGH THE TSUGARU STRAITS. ACCELERATING TO
THE EAST, TY NANGKA WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 DUE TO HIGH
VWS AND UNFAVORABLE OHC. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN


And is this Claudette's remnants hitting the UK..? I'd bet not cause Claudette was in rough shape when she became post tropical, but im not 100% sure....

It is the height of the rainy season, and we are getting a shower. 0.05"-0.1" at most but I am thankful for that, it has been so dry here.
Pre Felicia:



ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dolores, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Cabo San
Lucas, Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Enrique, located well west of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 600 miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Some slow development is possible early next week while this system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward at about 5 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Berg
Most of the Tampa Bay area have received .5-1" so far. Go north into Pasco, Hernando and there are pockets of 2-3" totals. Pretty dreary out there today.
Quoting 222. LargoFl:

news: someone in Chattanooga Tenn shot up an naval center there..one officer down, many shots fired.


Sadly they are saying there are 4 dead including the shooter with 3 injured ..
Quoting 228. whitewabit:



Sadly they are saying there are 4 dead including the shooter with 3 injured ..
gee thanks for the update!!
4 Marines are among the dead in the incident.

Gone to rest,

Semper Fi'


4 Marines reportedly dead in shooting attack at Tennessee Navy facility



We will stay on topic Pat; I suspect that most of us here enjoy this blog and weather watching over watching what people do to each other..............I bypass the news most nights in favor of TWC, History-Discovery Channel and PBS............................Condolences to the lost. Spent last night watching the PBS show on the Pluto mission and passed on politics and the news; hold my breath everyday on the way home from work waiting for my Wife to tell me what "bad" thing happened in the US or world during the day.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
243 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015

FLZ047-054-058-059-162015-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FL-OKEECHOBEE FL-ST. LUCIE FL-
INDIAN RIVER FL-
243 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE...
SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES UNTIL 415
PM EDT...

AT 240 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING DEVELOPING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A COLLISION WITH
TWO LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE DEVELOPING
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PALM
BAY...MELBOURNE...SEBASTIAN...VERO BEACH...FORT DRUM AND TREASURE
ISLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL
BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH FUTURE
DEVELOPING STORMS. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A
THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN
SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS... ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO
PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING.

STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
Quoting 227. Bucsboltsfan:

Most of the Tampa Bay area have received .5-1" so far. Go north into Pasco, Hernando and there are pockets of 2-3" totals. Pretty dreary out there today.


This lack of sunlight is a welcome change to the scorching afternoons that have been the norm this summer so far, even more than usual. It is relatively cool out at the moment, and it almost feels refreshing.

My heart goes out to the victim's families involved in yet another shooting. Just horrible.
Quoting 225. HurrMichaelOrl:

It is the height of the rainy season, and we are getting a shower. 0.05"-0.1" at most but I am thankful for that, it has been so dry here.


Never seen a pattern with a strong onshore flow like this with trough of low pressure overhead and deep tropical moisture producing numerous rounds of heavy showers all of which weaken just before reaching this area. Further inland over by your area, it makes since for them to weaken due to the rain cooled air, but I don't recall seeing this happen here before. Maybe if we already had 2-3 inches or more like areas further up the coast after several rounds, but not when we haven't had much.

I'm not sure what's going on that caused all these cells to fall apart before moving into Pinellas. Yesterday and the day before we had heavy thunderstorms when the coverage was less and the atmosphere less favorable, now we have multiple rounds of heavy convection approach us, and none of which make it here. Only on and off light to moderate rain all day.

Some areas north of me on the coast had serious rainfall totals, the radar is underestimating the rainfall rates too, as Hernando County airport has recorded over 3 inches of rain and it's in an area of 1 inch estimates, there is a rain gauge in southeast Pasco that's had over 5 inches in the 2 inch estimate color.
Quoting 230. Patrap:

4 Marines are among the dead in the incident.

Gone to rest,

Semper Fi'


4 Marines reportedly dead in shooting attack at Tennessee Navy facility





What the hell is wrong with people? Why does this keep happening?!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago
30-day-avg shear in the Caribbean (6/16-7/15) is 26 m/s in 2015. This is 6 m/s higher than any other year since 1979
Quoting 224. JrWeathermanFL:



And is this Claudette's remnants hitting the UK..? I'd bet not cause Claudette was in rough shape when she became post tropical, but im not 100% sure....



Claudette ain't that fast. Or, the Atlantic is big. Or, the circulation is summerly, Arctic Amplificated perhaps, sluggish.
Some of her tropical air may entrain into the warm sector of a disturbance that will finally reach Britain by Monday (GFS12z Oper. If I can detect the thing at all.)