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Category 2 Typhoon Chan-hom Makes Landfall 80 Miles From Shanghai, China

By: Jeff Masters 4:21 PM GMT on July 11, 2015

Typhoon Chan-hom made landfall in the Chinese island city of Zhoushan, Zhejiang Province, about 80 miles south-southeast of Shanghai, at 4:40 p.m local time Saturday, reported the official Chinese news agency. At landfall, Chan-hom was a Category 2 storm with winds of 100 mph, making it the strongest typhoon to pass within 100 miles of Shanghai in at least the past 35 years. Since Shanghai was on the weak (left) side of the typhoon, the city did not see strong winds. The strongest winds at Shanghai Pudong Airport on Saturday were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 56 mph. The city of Shipyu, located about 150 miles south of Shanghai, reported sustained winds of 74 mph at 2 am Saturday local time. Over a million people were evacuated in advance of Chan-hom, and I expect that considerable storm surge damage will be reported. Chan-hom has made its closest approach to Shanghai, and late on Saturday morning was headed north-northeast at 10 mph towards Korea. With cool waters of 21 - 22°C in front of it and high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots expected, Chan-hom should rapidly weaken, and make landfall on Monday morning local time in North Korea as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds.


Figure 1. People gather to see huge waves as Typhoon Chan-hom comes near Wenling, in east China's Zhejiang province on July 10, 2015. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.


Figure 2. Typhoon Chan-hom as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at approximately midnight EDT Friday, July 10, 2015 (04 UTC Saturday.) At the time, Chan-hom was a Category 2 storm with winds of 100 mph. Image credit: NASA Worldview.

Links
The new Japanese Himawari satellite has some spectacular imagery of Chan-hom (Sector 4 in Band 3=visible, and Sector 6 in Band 13=IR.)
Chan-hom satellite imagery from NOAA/NESDIS.
Weather radar from China.
Chan-hom weather radar loop from Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School.


Figure 3. Surface winds in the tropical Pacific at 11 am EDT Saturday July 11, 2015, revealed the presence of five tropical cyclones, one ex-tropical storm (Ela near Hawaii), and one tropical depression about to form (97E.) Image credit: earth.nullschool.net.

Hyperactive Pacific; Quiet Atlantic
The exceptionally warm surface waters in the tropical Pacific, in combination with the activity of a strong phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), has led to the formation of a remarkable simultaneous five tropical cyclones (tropical cyclones is a catch-all phrase to describe all tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes/typhoons.) On Saturday morning, the most dangerous of these appeared to be Category 2 Typhoon Nangka, which is expected to move northwards and affect Japan by Friday. The other storms besides Chan-hom (none of which are likely to affect any land areas through Wednesday): Tropical Depression 5-E, which formed 265 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico on Saturday morning, and is expected to move the west-northwest, parallel to the coast; Tropical Storm Halola, located in a remote portion of the Pacific about 555 mi Southwest of Johnston Island; and Tropical Depression Two-C, located about 515 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii, and headed northwest, away from Hawaii. Another tropical disturbance (Invest 97E), located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, was close to tropical depression status, and will likely be a tropical depression on Sunday. 97E will head westwards towards Hawaii, but is not likely to survive the long trek there.

The Atlantic remains quiet, and is dominated by high wind shear and stable dry air. None of our reliable genesis models are showing tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next five days, though an area of low pressure expected to form off the coast of North Carolina on Sunday will bear watching for development as it heads northeastwards out to sea early in the week.

There will be a new post by Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 489. leofarnsworth:



People who are tired of the nastiness are the majority. But they also vote with their blog choices and seem to be leaving the blog more and more. No one with their head on straight wants to read a few bullies rip people apart. Like I said before, the analytics for the blog probably show a smaller and smaller user base. And if there is a way to track key words in posts; I'm confident Climate discussion is growing as the user base tanks.


The demise of this blog has been forecasted since I have been a member, even had users going to a bunker, however it still carries on.
Quoting 494. Tazmanian:




sorry but the ignore user on here is pure crap has long has we have the Quote you are still seeing the people you have on ignore when they Quote them so there really no point in having the ingore user list on here any more now is there


That's where self control comes into play. But you are right for the most part, Taz.
Quoting 492. leofarnsworth:


I would ignore you, but you do also post real weather comments that are valuable...so for now I do not plan to ignore you. PS- my outrage at having to sift through nasty comments is not faux. I really really dislike seeing hateful speech and so do others.


Again, my intent is not hateful. There was only one person on this blog I dislike and they seem to have gotten themselves banned. I'm sorry if you think I come off that way. In that case, "flag and move on" is the only advice I can give.
Another old geek reporting in from SE Alabama. The temperature as fallen to 101 after a high of 102. The dewpoint is 92. Wait...no, that's 72. Thank goodness I'm having cataract surgery the next two Tuesdays. Seriously. I'll have, like, bionic eyes when it's done. Or, I'll be blind. I've already been teaching Radar Dog to type just in case.

I don't know what the THI is since it seems the sensor in my PWS has been fried and shows the THI the same as the temperature. According to the NWS heat index calculator, it's 111. Doesn't really matter since I can't spend more than five minutes outside before heat prostration sets in. Nice in Montgomery though, just 90 miles away. They've had thunderstorms all afternoon. Even had a flood advisory for a while. It's 81 and cloudy there now. It'll hit 81 here about three tomorrow morning.

It seems like we get a round of complaining the blog has gone to hell in a handbasket every three months or so. I've been reading this blog since the very first time it was ever posted. I joined up in 2004 mainly to find out if the Southeast was going to be flattened with more hurricanes. Then came 2005. But, I digress. In 2003 and 2004, the blog was literally filled with work at home spam posts, children practicing their cursing skills, bloggers threatening to track down and kill one another, and the occasional pornographic picture to perk up the interest.

Yeah, it's too bad we can't go back to the good old days......
Quoting 500. Milton1025:

Ooh, I'm excited. I believe the last time we had watches posted (San Diego) for a tropical disturbance was in '97.
From Swellwatch -
Today (Sunday) we have a good amount of southern hemi ground swell in SoCal. Although this is due to back off over the next few days, much bigger surf is now in the forecast from what will soon be Hurricane Dolores. In fact, this hurricane may do something rarely ever seen: not just bring surf to SoCal, but actually make landfall in or near SoCal. Before then, a slight increase in NW wind swell is due mid week. Also, typhoon Nangka still may bring a little something to SoCal around the 23rd. All eyes though are on Dolores as this could be a very significant storm to affect SoCal. Condition-wise: fair weather for the work-week but rain could hit SoCal by the weekend; winds seasonal now, but could become problematic from Dolores this weekend; the tide is fair but with deep late-day highs; and water temps are up...

It looks like the rain chances are better than normal over the next two weeks for southern California. Calling for a landfalling tropical storm is a bit much though.
Quoting 499. AdamReith:

Not sure I get your meaning. You think AGW should be generally off-topic here? Even though it's Dr. Masters' blog and he frequently uses it to introduce AGW and climate change topics, you think we should refrain from discussing it?

Judging by how often he refers to the subject, it seems our host considers AGW a matter of prime importance in his blog. Given the fact that all weather operates in the context we call "climate," it seems to me impossible to leave AGW/CC out of the discussion without limiting our understanding of what's going on with the weather.

In a sense we weather/climate enthusiasts are fortunate to live in these amazing times. Although AGW threatens the very existence of our civilization, I am fascinated by the unprecedented spectacle of one species altering nature on a grand scale. It would seem silly to avoid talking about AGW on a blog dedicated to its most obvious manifestations.

How about an agw blog for all the doomsdayers? Several come here to read about the weather. I'm loving the el nino updates. Maybe someone can suggest another forum or blog about weather that doesnt have the nasty insults.
Quoting 465. Envoirment:



Windshear has dropped off a lot and is weak-moderate over the system now and it should move over higher SSTs as it moves northwards. Perfect conditions for it to re-strengthen into a category 4, maybe even a category 5 as the GFS & Euro are depicting:





Both depict Nangka making landfall as a category 5 in Japan. A very dangerous situation developing now.


Category 5? In Japan?
That's really rare isn't it?
AFAIK the only Category 5 to hit Japan, (and also the strongest and deadliest to hit Japan) was Typhoon Vera in 1959.

Quoting 501. nrtiwlnvragn:



The demise of this blog has been forecasted since I have been a member, even had users going to a bunker, however it still carries on.


I'm sure the trolls will come on strong after we're highlighted on The Weather Channel though.
Quoting 505. sar2401:

Another old geek reporting in from SE Alabama. The temperature as fallen to 101 after a high of 102. The dewpoint is 92. Wait...no, that's 72. Thank goodness I'm having cataract surgery the next two Tuesdays. Seriously. I'll have, like, bionic eyes when it's done. Or, I'll be blind. I've already been teaching Radar Dog to type just in case.

I don't know what the THI is since it seems the sensor in my PWS has been fried and shows the THI the same as the temperature. According to the NWS heat index calculator, it's 111. Doesn't really matter since I can't spend more than five minutes outside before heat prostration sets in. Nice in Montgomery though, just 90 miles away. They've had thunderstorms all afternoon. Even had a flood advisory for a while. It's 81 and cloudy there now. It'll hit 81 here about three tomorrow morning.

It seems like we get a round of complaining the blog has gone to hell in a handbasket every three months or so. I've been reading this blog since the very first time it was ever posted. I joined up in 2004 mainly to find out if the Southeast was going to be flattened with more hurricanes. Then came 2005. But, I digress. In 2003 and 2004, the blog was literally filled with work at home spam posts, children practicing their cursing skills, bloggers threatening to track down and kill one another, and the occasional pornographic picture to perk up the interest.

Yeah, it's too bad we can't go back to the good old days......

I've been reading for several years and in my opinion there are just a handful keeping it from going back to the good ole days.
Hey Sar - what part of SE Alabama do you live? I was up in Dothan a couple of weeks ago.
Quoting 508. Kenfa03:


Better for me also. Your nastiness to anyone who doesn't beat the agw drum is deplorable and I feel the blog does not deseve it.


Your opinion is noted. Please click "ignore user" and stop denying science. :)

Looks like my fan club is back, and I can wager a good guess at who one of them is.
Quoting 511. ChillinInTheKeys:



I'm sure the trolls will come on strong after we're highlighted on The Weather Channel though.

So am I a troll if I just want to come to the blog and read about the tropics, el nino, why no rain in Texas lately, but point out the nastiness directed towards those that dont toe the agw company line?
Quoting 512. hydrus:




Interesting forecast for Dolores there. Just need it to be about 200 miles or so further East.
Quoting 517. Kenfa03:


So am I a troll if I just want to come to the blog and read about the tropics, el nino, why no rain in Texas lately, but point out the nastiness directed towards those that dont toe the agw company line?


That is why there is an ignore function on the blog and one between your ears.
barbamz posted this article from the Guardian last week. For anyone who missed it, it's a good piece on Tokyo and its ability to handle a 'guerilla rainstorm'.

Tokyo readies for the rise of the 'guerrilla rainstorm'
Japan’s capital may be known for its earthquake resilience strategies, but a recent increase in intense, sudden storms poses another threat – one that the city’s flood protection systems may not be able to manage
Quoting 509. Kenfa03:


How about an agw blog for all the doomsdayers? Several come here to read about the weather. I'm loving the el nino updates. Maybe someone can suggest another forum or blog about weather that doesnt have the nasty insults.


You keep saying "doomsdayers", "doom and gloom", but no one here is mentioning that, in fact, when you brought it up the first time I went out of my way to answer what I believe was a rather disingenuous question about your grandson by linking to the specific sections of the IPCC report that outlines exactly what the range of possibilities of AGW on human lives would be.

At this point, I'm pretty convinced that you are concern trolling. "A concern troll visits sites of an opposing ideology and offers advice on how they could "improve" things." Classic blog disruption technique.
Quoting 516. Naga5000:



Your opinion is noted. Please click ignore user, and stop denying science. :)
Re: 517... The irony is that if you look back(easily done) at my 700 plus comments, I have never mentioned or sided on AGW, politics, religion, sexuality etc. I've kept all that to my self on this "Weather Blog" even when the Blog authors topic was climate, etc.
Ok people lets get back on the subject of weather and not other bloggers !!

Everyone has had a say its now time to drop it ..

I would suggest everyone read The Rules Of The Road for Dr Masters blog and follow those rules !

First, remember this is an entertainment blog. Second, you can make your own blog expounding your beliefs on any weather/blog related post and invite members to read it and respond! Sounds fair to me.
Quoting 515. Bucsboltsfan:

Hey Sar - what part of SE Alabama do you live? I was up in Dothan a couple of weeks ago.
Eufaula, about 50 miles north of Dothan on 431. That's where I go if I need something from the "big city". :-)
Quoting 523. Grothar:




That would be a lot better than this...

I have been on here for a better part of all day, posting and lurking..its been "interesting" to say the least..

I'm off to watch more bickering-Basketball Wives..you all have a great evening..

and I'm glad I'm not old........yet
Lalala...
Quoting 513. Kenfa03:


I've been reading for several years and in my opinion there are just a handful keeping it from going back to the good ole days.
Hmmm....This site may help explain my post about the blog better.
Quoting 529. sar2401:

Eufaula, about 50 miles north of Dothan on 431. That's where I go if I need something from the "big city". :-)


Cool. "The big city." I've made a couple of trips to Alabama over the past few week. Along with Dothan, I was in Mobile and Auburn.
Quoting 530. ChillinInTheKeys:



That would be a lot better that this...




They keep going back and forth. Yours look like the most current.

I have got to say, got a lot of  bugs in Atlanta makin bug music
Quoting 413. HurrMichaelOrl:


Yeah, FL has been particularly miserable this summer. Not for unusually high humidity levels (humidity has definitely NOT been above average), but for the hotter than normal temperatures and plentiful scorching sun. I am not a sun lover, unless I am at the beach or on a tropical vacation. Actually, winter cold does not bother me. Would love to be enjoying the mild summer weather in Michigan right now.

I do love the FL thunderstorms though and all the rare tropical plants I can grow here, with the challenge being dryness and winter cold fronts. Here in Orlando, I can almost get away with landscaping like it's Miami or Naples. Most years, everything survives the winter just looking a bit rough for a few months.

Heck, I should just move up north and specialize in Japanese maples and rare conifers instead! Michigan still gets thunderstorms.

Im growing mangos here in Sanford. Im definitely a zone pusher here. It sucks having to cover the trees in the winter, but im enjoying the fruits of my labor now with delicious mangos!!

This summer has not been unusual with temps i don't think, just a little bit drier than normal. Hopefully it looks like a pattern shift with more widespread rain for the next week or so.
I will post this once again .

Ok people lets get back on the subject of weather and not other bloggers !!

Everyone has had a say its now time to drop it ..

I would suggest everyone read The Rules Of The Road for Dr Masters blog and follow those rules !
So, weather.

Here's a drought effect we didn't expect.

Remember me mentioning our brownout problems and power surges and such?

There are other issues - I notice it gets worse when our power line's transformer is in full morning sun.

But another thing that seems to the problem has to do with the groundwater level dropping.

Our ground pole isn't doing the job. I helped housemate reconnect it with fresh wire, fresh solder, and even added a second ground pole driven in near it, wired in series. Things are still funky, and it may well be something on our side of the box - still tracking it down.
thats warning # 2 from a mod


if they have too say it one more time then they start banning
Sorry White, I will go back to my neutral state of wanting to hear about weather.
..Im not really feeling invested tonight..



Ummm, I like weather.  I want to learn about it from well informed people who share my passion...
Quoting 524. ChillinInTheKeys:

Re: 517... The irony is that if you look back(easily done) at my 700 plus comments, I have never mentioned or sided on AGW, politics, religion, sexuality etc. I've kept all that to my self on this "Weather Blog" even when the Blog authors topic was climate, etc.
I have a lot of respect for you as a result. It's not as easy as some think not to get caught up in the distractions.... I've been guilty more than a few times. Ironically, this is the time of the season where this sort of detraction is common.

I'm done with this now ... lots of more interesting things happening atmospherically for me to talk about.

e.g.
35.5 hours now till New Horizon's Pluto close approach....




Quoting 537. Bucsboltsfan:



Cool. "The big city." I've made a couple of trips to Alabama over the past few week. Along with Dothan, I was in Mobile and Auburn.
Mobile and Auburn are both generally more pleasant than Dothan. Dothan does have a Home Depot and Lowes, which makes them stand out from the other towns in the area. Dothan is also noted as being the hottest place in Alabama. People come to Eufaula from Dothan in the summer to "cool off".

You have to be kind of careful driving though. I was stopped by Dothan PD on a right turn on red violation. He said I didn't make a complete stop. I know I had. He then gave me a song and dance about how the fine was going to be $90 but we could work something out so I didn't lose a day of work and all. That's when I showed him my retired badge. All of a sudden, it was y'all have a nice day now. Not good having your cops shaking down motorists.
Quoting 550. Patrap:

35.5 hours now till New Horizon's Pluto close approach....





This should be quite interesting .... are they planning to publish the results in a particular [web] location?
Quoting 552. sanflee76:

t
Looks like STS is at it again, hyping up something that does not happen despite what the NWS forecasters are saying. Its like a broken record, take whatever he says with a grain of salt
There was a moment of a-bomb IR imagery high cloud tops(those often get misinterpreted round these parts for rain), but I think it's safe to say no big rains in ECFL today, as per NWS Melbourne forecasts.
Quoting 526. Kenfa03:


Hey man your single handedly running a lot of people away from this blog. I really pray your life isnt as miserable as you come across on the internet. People like you and your followers that wish Florida was underwater make people think yall are just insane. You said the only person you disliked here got banned so go abead and ban me because I do not agree with the way you attempt to police the blog.

I don't at all wish Florida was underwater but realistically given where we're at now it will be half underwater within a couple hundred years and there isn't a damned thing we can do about it.
Quoting 545. Tazmanian:

thats warning # 2 from a mod


if they have too say it one more time then they start banning

Yep. Just found that out myself. Back to weather.
Quoting 544. nonblanche:

So, weather.

Here's a drought effect we didn't expect.

Remember me mentioning our brownout problems and power surges and such?

There are other issues - I notice it gets worse when our power line's transformer is in full morning sun.

But another thing that seems to the problem has to do with the groundwater level dropping.

Our ground pole isn't doing the job. I helped housemate reconnect it with fresh wire, fresh solder, and even added a second ground pole driven in near it, wired in series. Things are still funky, and it may well be something on our side of the box - still tracking it down.
I don't quite understand the ground pole. Is this the pole that has your residential transformer? If it is, all the ground level grounding won't do any good if the ground connection to the transformer is bad.
Quoting 554. nonblanche:



Tombaugh's ashes and 8 other mementos are on New Horizon.

Christine Lavin wrote and recorded a delightful song about him and his planet.


I have been thinking of Him and His family, and how He would be so excited with the flyby.

Many should know the T in Pluto is for Him as well.

Quoting 558. sar2401:

I don't quite understand the ground pole. Is this the pole that has your residential transformer? If it is, all the ground level grounding won't do any good if the ground connection to the transformer is bad.


That's one of our suspicions, but the distractions this week have been horrible. Plus tonight's gonna be my second night sleeping in the chicken coop with an air rifle. (sigh) I'm not at my best today, as I discovered this need quite noisily around 1:30am this morning. Yay rural life. We've been really fine over the last five years, but it looks like the drought and that recent vicious heatwave has really put the hammer down on owl snacks, cat crunchies, hawk treats, and so on. You know; cottontails. Mice. Ground squirrels. Food.

The ground pole is driven into the ground, wired to the ground connection at the master breaker box. (Master is down at grownup level on the power pole by the house.) The master box serves the house box (indoors) and the workshop box (which some rocket scientist put in about 3 feet from the well pump and bladder tank.) We get understandably high strung during real cold snaps about the pump not freezing up and exploding. Redoing everything is an ongoing project, fortunately the household here has grownups capable of managing this at pro, even code-compliant (gasp) level.
Quoting 553. BahaHurican:

This should be quite interesting .... are they planning to publish the results in a particular [web] location?


Imagery will be available in near real time, as the Light time for transmit one way is 4.5 Hours.

The NASA website will have live feeds and commentary throughout the encounter and after too.

I will be doing a Live Blog in my entry and publish it sometime tomorrow.

July 12, 2015

One Million Miles to Go; Pluto is More Intriguing than Ever



This is the last time we will have images from this Hemisphere for a decade as the opposite side is to be the one photographed during the close encounter of only 7500 miles Tuesday.




Quoting 553. BahaHurican:

This should be quite interesting .... are they planning to publish the results in a particular [web] location?


It'll be years Baha. The amount of data that NASA is going to get out of this will fund years of papers to scholarly journals. I'm sure every once in a while something will pop up in the press after the initial frenzy calms down.
Halola now has an international typhoon number, which is 12.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HALOLA (1512)
9:00 AM JST July 13 2015
==========================
In Midway Islands Waters

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Halola (990 hPa) located at 13.0N 179.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Gale Force Winds
=============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 14.1N 174.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Marshall Islands
48 HRS: 15.4N 170.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Wake Island waters
72 HRS: 16.7N 166.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Wake Island waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #81
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NANGKA (1511)
9:00 AM JST July 13 2015
==========================
In Okinotori-shima waters

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nangka (950 hPa) located at 19.6N 137.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Storm Force Winds
=============
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
300 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 22.6N 136.9E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 26.5N 136.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 30.0N 133.9E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #105
Gale Warning
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER TC CHAN-HOM (1509)
9:00 AM JST July 13 2015
==========================
Overland Korea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Chan-Hom (986 hPa) located at 40.0N 126.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The low is reported as moving north northeast at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
300 NM from the center

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory on TC CHAN-HOM from the Japan Meteorological Agency..
Patrap,

How fast is the probe moving?
You're welcome, Kenfa03. Sources are in my blog and all articles I have linked are in the comments in my blog entries 24 and 26.
Quoting 565. PaulSanD:

Patrap,

How fast is the probe moving?


It is in the linked article,



At 7:49 AM EDT on Tuesday, July 14 New Horizons will zip past Pluto at 30,800 miles per hour (49,600 kilometers per hour), with a suite of seven science instruments busily gathering data. The mission will complete the initial reconnaissance of the solar system with the first-ever look at the icy dwarf planet.
We have officially crossed into Strong El-Nino territory. Per the July 13th update.

Quoting 509. Kenfa03:


How about an agw blog for all the doomsdayers? Several come here to read about the weather. I'm loving the el nino updates. Maybe someone can suggest another forum or blog about weather that doesnt have the nasty insults.
I guess you'd have to ask our host, but he seems to think weather and climate are inseparable. I agree with him: I don't see how you can discuss the trees and ignore the forest fire.

And as for insults, "doomsayers" sounds a bit pejorative, don't you think?
Quoting 570. StormTrackerScott:

We have officially crossed into Strong El-Nino territory. Per the July 13th update.



Another great post. Thanks Scott.
I was banned for a simple thing and have seen many off topic post today.Let's be honest the average joe does not care about the east and west pacific and I refuse to get forced into talking about those things.
Quoting 550. Patrap:

35.5 hours now till New Horizon's Pluto close approach....







Getting excited pat! I saw that launch on the Atlas V back in 2006 from Orlando. Hard to believe where it is now.
Quoting 561. nonblanche:



That's one of our suspicions, but the distractions this week have been horrible. Plus tonight's gonna be my second night sleeping in the chicken coop with an air rifle. (sigh) I'm not at my best today, as I discovered this need quite noisily around 1:30am this morning. Yay rural life. We've been really fine over the last five years, but it looks like the drought and that recent vicious heatwave has really put the hammer down on owl snacks, cat crunchies, hawk treats, and so on. You know; cottontails. Mice. Ground squirrels. Food.

The ground pole is driven into the ground, wired to the ground connection at the master breaker box. (Master is down at grownup level on the power pole by the house.) The master box serves the house box (indoors) and the workshop box (which some rocket scientist put in about 3 feet from the well pump and bladder tank.) We get understandably high strung during real cold snaps about the pump not freezing up and exploding. Redoing everything is an ongoing project, fortunately the household here has grownups capable of managing this at pro, even code-compliant (gasp) level.
OK, so you're talking about grounding the entrance box on your home then. It's a good idea, but you need to figure out if the problem is on your side of the transformer or on the NVEnergy side. Do you have a voltage monitor for the house? If not, you can get one from Camping World for about $15. Every time you get a brownout, check the voltage meter and write down the reading. When you have enough over and under voltage readings, call NVEnergey and demand they send out a field engineer to hang a recording voltmeter on the entrance box. I went through a year of this with Alabama Power. My suspicion was a floating ground at the transformer and that proved to be the case once the recording voltmeter showed constant drops and spikes. In addition to the ground, the transformer itself, which was about 40 years old, was way under spec for power line modulation, so they changed it out for a new transformer. No problems since. I know it's tough when you're trying to fight off pests that are after the chickens, but get your housemate to get on the power company's back about this. A floating ground and bad transformer can destroy every electrical appliance you own plus start the house on fire if it's really bad.
12Z Euro precip forecast thru day 10. Impressive signal especially for those across Western FL.

Quoting 551. sar2401:

Mobile and Auburn are both generally more pleasant the Dothan. Dothan does have a Home Depot and Lowes, which makes them stand out from the other towns in the area. Dothan is also noted as being the hottest place in Alabama. People come to Eufaula from Dothan in the summer to "cool off".

You have to be kind of careful driving though. I was stopped by Dothan PD on a right turn on red violation. He said I didn't make a complete stop. I know I had. He then gave me a song and dance about how the fine was going to be $90 but we could work something out so I didn't lose a day of work and all. That's when I showed him my retired badge. All of a sudden, it was y'all have a nice day now. Not good having your cops shaking down motorists.
Yeah, Dothan always seemed like the hottest part of AL to me. Nothing to cut the heat. Close enough to the Gulf to get the humidity, but no cool breezes.

My company did a lot of business in and around Dothan, but I never could figure out why a town that big was there. It's not on a big river; it's not a university town; not a manufacturing town. Just an ag center, originally? I guess being the County Seat has a lot to do with it.
Quoting 575. CybrTeddy:



Getting excited pat! I saw that launch on the Atlas V back in 2006 from Orlando. Hard to believe where it is now.


Indeed as I watched it too in my FEMA Trailer on DirecTV.

Quoting 574. washingtonian115:

I was banned for a simple thing and have seen many off topic post today.Let's be honest the average joe does not care about the east and west pacific and I refuse to get forced into talking about those things.
However, the population of the countries of the West Pacific alone is around 6 times as many people as all the USA, and the storms there potentially can affect a great many of them. So the eastern USA seaboard population is pretty far from being "the average joe".
Quoting 574. washingtonian115:

I was banned for a simple thing and have seen many off topic post today.Let's be honest the average joe does not care about the east and west pacific and I refuse to get forced into talking about those things.
Lots of non-average Joes and Jos on this blog .... I'm glad to have tropical systems to talk about. And if the WPac and the CPac are going to have hyperactive years like 2005, I think that's worth watching and talking about ....
Geez ... I need to get into bed... and after the holiday weekend the idea of getting up early and meeting the morning drive are just not appealing ... :o(

Sure I have the tablet, but after using a REAL keyboard, I hate to go back ....

I'll prolly read some more, but not post too much. Still want to find out if PR got any appreciable precip from today's Twave / ULL interaction ...
Is that an eye in Nangka?



Powerful little thing.

Absolutely spectacular lightning display going on in Atlanta right now. There is a thunderstorm about 10-20 miles to the SW of the city that is producing very frequent and bright cloud to cloud lighting. I wish there were less trees around so I could see it better. Not to often you get a display like this without corresponding thunder, at least in Atlanta.
Quoting 574. washingtonian115:

I was banned for a simple thing and have seen many off topic post today.Let's be honest the average joe does not care about the east and west pacific and I refuse to get forced into talking about those things.


Don't assume everyone on this blog is here for the same reasons as you are. It's a common mistake for people to assume that they are the 'average Joe'. I could be wrong, but those who assume they are the norm are often not.

Personally I find learning about e-pac and c-pac storms color, and greater inform, my understanding of Atlantic systems.
Quoting 578. AdamReith:

Yeah, Dothan always seemed like the hottest part of AL to me. Nothing to cut the heat. Close enough to the Gulf to get the humidity, but no cool breezes.

My company did a lot of business in and around Dothan, but I never could figure out why a town that big was there. It's not on a big river; it's not a university town; not a manufacturing town. Just an ag center, originally? I guess being the County Seat has a lot to do with it.
Dothan is the only place in Alabama where the high average is at 90 or above for the three summer months. It's danged hot. Dothan got its start because the topography made it a natural hub for the first railroads connecting Atlanta and Alabama. There were lots of pine trees that furnished lumber and turpentine loads for the railroads. Even today, Dothan has the only mainline railroad in SE Alabama. Cotton then, after the boll weevil, peanuts, have been the agricultural base of the city. There are a number of manufacturing and tech companies in Dothan, although fewer each year, as the continuing effects of the recession have caused several plants, including Sony, to close.

There are two colleges, Wallace Community and Troy University Dothan. It has the only commercial airport in the area and it's on the main route to Florida, so lots of tourists pass through. That's one of the reasons why Eufaula has not fallen into the kind of depressing disrepair seen in places like Union Springs. Lots of people pass through our beautiful historic district on the way to Florida and decide to retire here...like me. Eufaula and Dothan probably have more Yankees per capita than any other two cities except maybe Birmingham and Huntsville, much to the dismay of the locals. :-)
night back in the AM
Quoting 586. hurricanehunter27:

Absolutely spectacular lightning display going on in Atlanta right now. There is a thunderstorm about 10-20 miles to the SW of the city that is producing very frequent and bright cloud to cloud lighting. I wish there were less trees around so I could see it better. Not to often you get a display like this without corresponding thunder, at least in Atlanta.
That must be the cell near Douglas. It has about 50 ground strikes per minute and about 130 cloud to cloud strokes, so it would look pretty spectacular after dark. There's an even more intense cell NW of you near Fairmont and headed SE. It has over 99 ground strokes per minute. There are also cells developing out in front of the main cell. I'm surprised this one doesn't have a warning.

Clear skies here and 85. I'm sure I'll see some lightning again...someday.
Dolores is currently going over some very warm water.

Quoting 592. wxgeek723:

Have you seen this one Brian?

Research shows climate change shrinking where bumblebees range

Yep I posted about that on Thursday. But thanks Trent, it's always good to share information, and repeats should be welcomed :) Even when the news story is a real buzzkill.
First, thank you. I'm sorry if I came across kind of vinegary, I'm really not feeling very sharp at the moment.

Quoting 576. sar2401:

OK, so you're talking about grounding the entrance box on your home then. It's a good idea, but you need to figure out if the problem is on your side of the transformer or on the NVEnergy side. Do you have a voltage monitor for the house? If not, you can get one from Camping World for about $15. Every time you get a brownout, check the voltage meter and write down the reading. When you have enough over and under voltage readings, call NVEnergey and demand they send out a field engineer to hang a recording voltmeter on the entrance box. I went through a year of this with Alabama Power. My suspicion was a floating ground at the transformer and that proved to be the case once the recording voltmeter showed constant drops and spikes. In addition to the ground, the transformer itself, which was about 40 years old, was way under spec for power line modulation, so they changed it out for a new transformer. No problems since. I know it's tough when you're trying to fight off pests that are after the chickens, but get your housemate to get on the power company's back about this. A floating ground and bad transformer can destroy every electrical appliance you own plus start the house on fire if it's really bad.


Housemate says all good ideas - if they don't give us a callback in the morning he's going to get louder. I've always been reluctant to make suggestions on the electrical, because frankly working with it scares the dickens outa me. Plumbing, piece of cake. Mysterious invisible moving electrons that can kill? Big fat Nope. :)

Sunlight makes it more reactive, rain makes it work better. See? All weather related. And since our recent rains are connected to El Nino activity, how much more relevant could I make this? :)
Quoting 589. Tazmanian:




reported





What happens when you report someone? Hate to see Taz getting disrespected because I like his weather related posts.
Quoting 593. Grothar:

Dolores is currently going over some very warm water.



Daughters in Cabo on honeymoon hope its stays out to sea.
Quoting 593. Grothar:

Dolores is currently going over some very warm water.

Doleful Dolores dramatically denies dishing drastic destruction.
Just did a blog update on the Atlantic tropics with a statement on 92-L. It may try to develop within the next 24 hours, after which time cool waters will end its potential. Just waiting to see if it fires a burst of deep convection in the next 24 hours, there's no telling....
Quoting 595. BaltimoreBrian:


Yep I posted about that on Thursday. But thanks Trent, it's always good to share information, and repeats should be welcomed :) Even when it's a real buzzkill.

No buzzkill. Missed it first time around. Thanks for repost.
Quoting 596. nonblanche:

First, thank you. I'm sorry if I came across kind of vinegary, I'm really not feeling very sharp at the moment.



Housemate says all good ideas - if they don't give us a callback in the morning he's going to get louder. I've always been reluctant to make suggestions on the electrical, because frankly working with it scares the dickens outa me. Plumbing, piece of cake. Mysterious invisible moving electrons that can kill? Big fat Nope. :)

Sunlight makes it more reactive, rain makes it work better. See? All weather related. And since our recent rains are connected to El Nino activity, how much more relevant could I make this? :)
LOL. I feel for you, out there on the howling desert, trying to make the homestead work. That's funny about plumbing. It's a complete mystery to me. Anything I work on will always leak. Electricity just kind of made sense to me, plus the fact it can kill you makes it more fun to work with. Kind of keeps you on your toes, and it's probably the reason I have a ham radio license instead of a plumber's certificate. Your description of the problems makes me suspect the transformer itself is bad. The field engineer will work that out. My guy was really good, especially once he found out I knew something about electrical wiring. The field engineer shows up when they're afraid the customer is going to complain to the PUC, so make sure that term gets thrown around in the discussion. If you have voltage readings that indicate something really is wrong, that helps a lot. It'll take a couple months of constant hammering to get anything done, but you can beat them in the end.
Quoting 559. BaltimoreBrian:

The following article is courtesy of ariot:

!!! Solar activity predicted to fall 60% in 2030s, to 'mini ice age' levels: Sun driven by double dynamo
There are several discussions of this going on around the web. This one at HotWhopper is good. The bottom line is that this reduction in temperature, if it should occur, will not noticeably offset the projected global warming.

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/07/theres-only-tw o-year-reprieve-if-sun.html
Quoting 599. BaltimoreBrian:


Doleful Dolores dramatically denies dishing drastic destruction.


And Dolores Del Rio definitely defined delicate denouement diligently.
Quoting 603. FLwolverine:

There are several discussions of this going on around the web. This one at HotWhopper is good. The bottom line is that this reduction in temperature, if it should occur, will not noticeably offset the projected global warming.

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/07/theres-only-tw o-year-reprieve-if-sun.html
It would be nice if this model really works. Cycle 24, the one we're in now, was supposed to be one of the highest sunspot cycles since Cycle 19. Unfortunately, it has been a complete flop. If what this model predicts is correct, it's going to almost destroy the ham radio hobby. No sunspots means no long distance ionospheric communication. We'll be stuck talking to the ham over in the next county instead. Not quite the same as making a contact in some place like Bhutan.
Twin Cities - incoming

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1029 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

WVC105-107-130415-
/O.CON.KRLX.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-150713T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
WIRT WV-WOOD WV-
1029 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR EAST CENTRAL WOOD COUNTY...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL WIRT AND SOUTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTIES...

SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING FLOODING TO EXPECTED TO OCCUR. MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

AT 1025 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EAST CENTRAL WOOD COUNTY INCLUDING
MINERALWELLS...DAVISVILLE AND WALKER. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING
TOLL FREE...800 401 9535...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

YOU MAY ALSO REPORT HIGH WATER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.
Quoting 599. BaltimoreBrian:


Doleful Dolores dramatically denies dishing drastic destruction.


Dutifully done.
Doleful Dolores
dramatically denies
dishing destruction

Dakster delivery ;)
Quoting 607. LAbonbon:

Twin Cities - incoming




It's great. Was 90 degrees and humid 20 minutes ago....now 65 and pleasant.
Quoting 613. evilpenguinshan:



It's great. Was 90 degrees and humid 20 minutes ago....now 65 and pleasant.


Know that feeling. Got back to the house today to discover it was 92 with a heat index of 102 thanks to that 70 something dew point. NWS refused to issue a heat advisory despite meeting the criteria at least on the heat index side.

Had several thunderstorms form around us, loud thunder! Wow, those were boomers. Hendersonville, TN, the town over from me got absolutely pounded, lol. Didn't see a rainbow though. :(
Six-E is looking slightly better, although there haven't been any recent ASCAT passes to assess how strong the system is. We should see Enrique during the next 24 hours.

Quoting 614. Astrometeor:



Know that feeling. Got back to the house today to discover it was 92 with a heat index of 102 thanks to that 70 something dew point. NWS refused to issue a heat advisory despite meeting the criteria at least on the heat index side.

Had several thunderstorms form around us, loud thunder! Wow, those were boomers. Hendersonville, TN, the town over from me got absolutely pounded, lol. Didn't see a rainbow though. :(


70s here but nice out. That will be the high today.
Quoting 614. Astrometeor:



Know that feeling. Got back to the house today to discover it was 92 with a heat index of 102 thanks to that 70 something dew point. NWS refused to issue a heat advisory despite meeting the criteria at least on the heat index side.

Had several thunderstorms form around us, loud thunder! Wow, those were boomers. Hendersonville, TN, the town over from me got absolutely pounded, lol. Didn't see a rainbow though. :(


They did issue one for us - I believe our heat index was at or near 100 most of the day. The real nasty severe all went off north and west of the Twin Cities, so we dodged a bullet and are just getting a good soaking tonight.
Swift water rescues in WV:

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
WVC105-107-130815-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-150713T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1202 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE EAST CENTRAL WOOD COUNTY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA HAS EXTENDED
THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL WIRT COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 415 AM EDT

* AT 1150 PM EDT...FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS 50 TO 60 HOMES HAVE
FLOODED. SEVERAL SWIFT WATER RESCUES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE MINERAL
WELLS AREA.
RADAR HAS ESTIMATED OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS
FALLEN. EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS CREEKS CONTINUE
TO RESPOND TO RUNOFF.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR MINERAL WELLS...DAVISVILLE...AND
WALKER. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS
HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING
TOLL FREE...800 401 9535...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

YOU MAY ALSO REPORT HIGH WATER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.
Quoting 613. evilpenguinshan:



It's great. Was 90 degrees and humid 20 minutes ago....now 65 and pleasant.

LOVE when that happens :)

Tropical Storm Fay. 2008

Hurricane Wilma at peak intensity. 195-MPH Winds! Wow!

Hurricane Katrina 2005
Quoting 602. sar2401:

LOL. I feel for you, out there on the howling desert, trying to make the homestead work. That's funny about plumbing. It's a complete mystery to me. Anything I work on will always leak. Electricity just kind of made sense to me, plus the fact it can kill you makes it more fun to work with. Kind of keeps you on your toes, and it's probably the reason I have a ham radio license instead of a plumber's certificate. Your description of the problems makes me suspect the transformer itself is bad. The field engineer will work that out. My guy was really good, especially once he found out I knew something about electrical wiring. The field engineer shows up when they're afraid the customer is going to complain to the PUC, so make sure that term gets thrown around in the discussion. If you have voltage readings that indicate something really is wrong, that helps a lot. It'll take a couple months of constant hammering to get anything done, but you can beat them in the end.


I had to cram for my ham test. Memorize the math best I could, memorize some of the electronic/radio wave details, take the on-line test over and over until I could get a passing score 3 out of 5 times, then cross my fingers. :) I don't need to do the wiring stuff, I have a Baofeng handheld with a rubber duck, and a quarter-wave magmount on my trailer roof in case we need to, y'know, communicate after the zombie apocalypse or scary weather or such (Also when I have to drive down to see Mom through scary no-cell land). All the grownups in the house are licensed. Thank goodness I didn't have to learn Morse. :)

I've found the biggest mistake in drain plumbing (my favorite part of it, yecch, no really) is not putting in enough vents. Someone just patching over a line to a sink or something they put in all by themselves! is going to give them big surprises, especially if it's up- or downstream from a toilet. Air and water don't mix, and the air needs to get out of the way when the water's coming.
625. emguy
Quoting 622. HurriHistory:


Hurricane Wilma at peak intensity. 195-MPH Winds! Wow!



I wonder if anybody has ever tried to model this...but I believe the drunken gyre of Wilma and her tight eyewall eventually led to an enhanced wind belt outide the core that became a new eyewall...thus initiating the eventual eyewall replacement cycle that happenned, and s collapse of the core. As a PS...Imagine trying to pass through all 4 quads in a drunkard like her with a hurricane hunter plane. Amazing they caught it, her center, and the pressure they did. A world class job.
Quoting 577. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro precip forecast thru day 10. Impressive signal especially for those across Western FL.




Wow, couldn't be any more different to the pattern depicted by the GFS. I wonder which one will be right.
Do you guys think Nangka will become annular once the inner eyewall dissipates?
629. MahFL
Quoting 562. Patrap:



...This is the last time we will have images from this Hemisphere for a decade as the opposite side is to be the one photographed during the close encounter...


It will be a lot longer than a decade, no other mission is even planned for Pluto, and it takes 9.5 years to get there, with a Jupiter flyby, 13 years without a Jupiter flyby.
Good morning, WU! I think this is the same line that was bearing down on the Twin Cities last night?

Quoting 629. MahFL:



It will be a lot longer than a decade, no other mission is even planned for Pluto, and it takes 9.5 years to get there, with a Jupiter flyby, 13 years without a Jupiter flyby.


New Horizons isn't a "Flagship" mission so it can't be a Pluto orbiter. Sad fact, NASA is holding off launching any Flagship missions due to budget issues. Last Flagship-class mission was the Curiosity rover.
Definitely not a good morning to fly out of Chicago:



The 3 day severe weather outbreak peaks today. A large MDT risk is in place, with 45% hatched severe wind probabilities. Also a 10% hatched tornado risk, so that will be a threat as well.

Getting more Convection.
Potentially another low coming off the East Coast on Thursday and producing Tropical or Subtropical Development.

Code Orange.
Good Wave coming off the West Coast of Africa.
Quoting 587. LAGotNoWeather:



Don't assume everyone on this blog is here for the same reasons as you are. It's a common mistake for people to assume that they are the 'average Joe'. I could be wrong, but those who assume they are the norm are often not.

Personally I find learning about e-pac and c-pac storms color, and greater inform, my understanding of Atlantic systems.
Go away.I see its your first few comments and you have already gotten into several arguments.The average Joe as in ones that don't care about weather on the norm.There are weather geeks on this forum so of course they have interest in those things.People outside of the weather world don't keep up with those things.I won't be seeing you.
Quoting 634. Climate175:

Potentially another low coming off the East Coast on Thursday and producing Tropical or Subtropical Development.
Looks very broad in nature.I doubt we'll see sub-tropical or tropical development from that.
Quoting 639. washingtonian115:

Looks very broad in nature.I doubt we'll see sub-tropical or tropical development from that.
Yea, looked kind of cold core to me.
Quoting 413. HurrMichaelOrl:


Yeah, FL has been particularly miserable this summer. Not for unusually high humidity levels (humidity has definitely NOT been above average), but for the hotter than normal temperatures and plentiful scorching sun. I am not a sun lover, unless I am at the beach or on a tropical vacation. Actually, winter cold does not bother me. Would love to be enjoying the mild summer weather in Michigan right now.

I do love the FL thunderstorms though and all the rare tropical plants I can grow here, with the challenge being dryness and winter cold fronts. Here in Orlando, I can almost get away with landscaping like it's Miami or Naples. Most years, everything survives the winter just looking a bit rough for a few months.

Heck, I should just move up north and specialize in Japanese maples and rare conifers instead! Michigan still gets thunderstorms.
Good idea.
Seems like we have a chance of rain everyday this week, shaping up to a wet week indeed.
In Some cases in certain Nino regions we are ahead of 1997 others behind. Kind of a toss up as to which one is stronger at this point.

Today's readings per CPC

Niño 4: +1.1°C
Niño 3.4: +1.5°C
Niño 3: +2.1C
Niño 1+2: +3.3°C


Uozu, Japan reportedly had a new record all-time hottest temperature today (Monday) of 37.9 C / 100.2 F.

Link
OZ Euro is maxed out in terms of rainfall across the Tampa area thru day 10. Scale goes to 15" and its maxed out!

Future Claudette looks like a "ball of fun" lol couldn't help myself.
Quoting 643. StormTrackerScott:

In Some cases in certain Nino regions we are ahead of 1997 others behind. Kind of a toss up as to which one is stronger at this point.

Today's readings per CPC

Niño 4: +1.1°C
Niño 3.4: +1.5°C
Niño 3: +2.1C
Niño 1+2: +3.3°C





nino 1 and 2 are now at 3.3 per CPC the last time nino 1 and 2 where that high was the 1997 EL nino


all so with nino 3.4 at 1.5 todat marks the day we have crossed in too strong EL nino
Quoting 643. StormTrackerScott:

In Some cases in certain Nino regions we are ahead of 1997 others behind. Kind of a toss up as to which one is stronger at this point.

Today's readings per CPC

Niño 4: +1.1°C
Niño 3.4: +1.5°C
Niño 3: +2.1C
Niño 1+2: +3.3°C





1997 has higher weekly anomalies in every NINO region except region 4, 1997 also leads the way by setting the bi-monthly May-June record in the MEI & is ranked 2nd all-time for June in the seasonally averaged BEST index (behind 1877) with this year in 8th using the unadjusted tri-monthly data. This isn't a toss up, 1997 is still clearly ahead of this year.
Good Morning on this July 13th. While looking over the models this morning I am seeing a very wet pattern across FL going forward in some cases could be record breaking especially across Western FL as it appears the Gulf is going to open up as a trough digs into the SE US and drags a front down into FL setting the stage for days of heavy rains due to the added convergence of a stalled front and upper energy aloft. This is a major change from the pattern thus far this Summer.

Here is 168hrs and notice all the lower heights across FL. All this energy aloft combined with stout SW flow causing late night convergence bands to set up over the Gulf and come ashore dropping some crazy rain amounts potentially. Another added factor is that Gulf temps are near 90 right now near FL.



OZ Euro precip totals thru day 10. Euro is maxed out at 15" over Tampa thru early next week.
Quoting 646. washingtonian115:

Future Claudette looks like a "ball of fun" lol couldn't help myself.
Good Morning. Here is the relative current position of the Conus jet, streaming into-over the Great Lakes region, which is concurrent with the moderate risk today from SPC:



Quoting 648. Webberweather53:



1997 has higher weekly anomalies in every NINO region except region 4, 1997 also leads the way by setting the bi-monthly May-June record in the MEI & is ranked 2nd all-time for June in the seasonally averaged BEST index (behind 1877) with this year in 8th using the unadjusted tri-monthly data. This isn't a toss up, 1997 is still clearly ahead of this year.


2015 is much warmer west than 1997 and the warmer anomalies are more spread out as well. I would be concerned if i were you because this event is going to surpass 1997 as there is a rapidly 3rd Kelvin Wave developing beneath 180W and this will be what drives us past 1997 especially across nino 3.4. Remember 1997's heat was more concentrated this years event is massive and getting stronger ever week especially after we just had a record MJO & WWB. All this will do is cause sea surface anomalies to rise in dramatic fashion the next several week.

2015


1997
And the Conus forecast for today:

Quoting 645. StormTrackerScott:

OZ Euro is maxed out in terms of rainfall across the Tampa area thru day 10. Scale goes to 15" and its maxed out!




Based on that map we should get about an inch in the Treasure Coast. Unreal.
Quoting 517. Kenfa03:


So am I a troll if I just want to come to the blog and read about the tropics, el nino, why no rain in Texas lately, but point out the nastiness directed towards those that dont toe the agw company line?
Doesn't Dr, Rood have a blog on AGW?
Here is a good article on the Pluto issue and a blurb from the article on the closest approach tomorrow morning:

http://news.sciencemag.org/space/2015/07/pluto-al most-here-what-weve-seen-so-far-and-whats-coming-n ext

As Pluto looms into view, three distinct regions are emerging.

The moment of closest approach will happen at about 8 a.m. U.S. Eastern Standard Time (EST) on the morning of 14 July. Because the spacecraft’s radio dish is not articulated, New Horizons cannot communicate with Earth while its instruments are trained on Pluto. So it will stay focused on the job throughout the day. Moreover, it takes 4.5 hours for data to travel back to Earth. The mission team will be biting its nails until about 9 p.m. EST that night, when a simple message with engineering data is supposed to arrive. “The very first link is New Horizons turning back after encounter to say ‘Hello, everything’s fine,’” Young says. Then the data from the encounter will trickle back to Earth for 16 months. Only select images and scientific data will be available on 15 July and in the subsequent days. “We’re picking the cream of the crop to come down in the next week,” Young says.
Considering we just had the same type of WWB that set off the 1997 Super Nino in June and to have these values already in place before the warming is actually realized from this MJO/WWB is damm impressive and no wonder why so many models are storming past 1997's values!

1997
09JUL1997 25.7 3.8 28.0 2.2 28.9 1.6 29.5 0.7


2015
08JUL2015 25.2 3.3 27.9 2.1 28.8 1.5 29.9 1.1
Quoting 645. StormTrackerScott:

OZ Euro is maxed out in terms of rainfall across the Tampa area thru day 10. Scale goes to 15" and its maxed out!




10 days out and we've seen those models be wrong so may times. 15" inches is a lot of rain without a tropical system. Heck, look at yesterday - nothing too extreme happened.
Quoting 517. Kenfa03:


So am I a troll if I just want to come to the blog and read about the tropics, el nino, why no rain in Texas lately, but point out the nastiness directed towards those that dont toe the agw company line?

Yes. Even that line is trollish, 'agw company line'.
You may be naive in that you are not aware where the nastiness began in the first place, thus are not able to distuinguish response from original. But my patience with this kind of naievety is thin too as climate revisionism is criminal and time is running out so on climate revisionism I assume malice until proven otherwise. The latter is rare, though proof of said innocence is very easy.
Quoting 501. nrtiwlnvragn:



The demise of this blog has been forecasted since I have been a member, even had users going to a bunker, however it still carries on.
There still may be a blog, but the quality has really changed for the worst. I have a lot of people on ignore, but like Taz states, if the ignored commenter is quoted, I can read it any ways. I would rather read a post about the El Nino from Scott than here all the AGW garbage that takes up a large portion of these blogs even though a lot of the blogs are not concerning AGW. Please don't come back and state that AGW effects the weather so it's relevant, climate change affects the weather and climate change and AGW are two different animals.
Quoting 659. Bucsboltsfan:



10 days out and we've seen those models be wrong so may times. 15" inches is a lot of rain without a tropical system. Heck, look at yesterday - nothing too extreme happened.


The GFS is showing less than an inch for some of the areas that the Euro is depicting 15 inches for, over the same 10 day time period. I'm not sure what's causing the Euro is put a bullseye over Tampa like that, but the GFS isn't anywhere close to agreement. It would be interesting to see what the next run of the Euro shows.
Quoting 656. NativeSun:

Doesn't Dr, Rood have a blog on AGW?


He does. The same guys that police that blog police this one too. I'm 100% on-board with global warming. I just don't let it bother me if someone thinks differently. That's their choice and their right to post what they want. I simply ignore and move on.
Quoting 659. Bucsboltsfan:



10 days out and we've seen those models be wrong so may times. 15" inches is a lot of rain without a tropical system. Heck, look at yesterday - nothing too extreme happened.


It's not 10 days out its a precip accum thru day 10. Models are showing this beginning this week across FL as a upper trough slides in and stalls out over the area. Again this NOT 10 days out more like a few days out is when this pattern begins.

Quoting 662. tampabaymatt:



The GFS is showing less than an inch for some of the areas that the Euro is depicting 15 inches for, over the same 10 day time period. I'm not sure what's causing the Euro is put a bullseye over Tampa like that, but the GFS isn't anywhere close to agreement. It would be interesting to see what the next run of the Euro shows.


It will probably change. Think about it, how many time has Tampa ever had 15" of rain in the month of July? I'm guessing not too often. It's a very rare occurrence especially without a tropical entity.
Quoting 550. Patrap:

35.5 hours now till New Horizon's Pluto close approach....







How long will it be before the images from closeup get here? I know they were not planning to transmit data until after the pass was done to keep from overloading systems, but will it be the next day or when?
Quoting 664. StormTrackerScott:



It's not 10 days out its a precip accum thru day 10. Models are showing this beginning this week across FL as a upper trough slides in and stalls out over the area. Again this NOT 10 days out more like a few days out is when this pattern begins.




I thought it says through the 23rd? In any regards, as I just posted, it is a very rare occuryfor Tampa to get 15" of rain in July.
Quoting 662. tampabaymatt:



The GFS is showing less than an inch for some of the areas that the Euro is depicting 15 inches for, over the same 10 day time period. I'm not sure what's causing the Euro is put a bullseye over Tampa like that, but the GFS isn't anywhere close to agreement. It would be interesting to see what the next run of the Euro shows.


Euro is very believable and has been showing this for several runs now really since Saturday.

You can really see the convergent flow begin to take shape late week


Then fully established this weekend.
Quoting 665. Bucsboltsfan:



It will probably change. Think about it, how many time has Tampa ever had 15" of rain in the month of July? I'm guessing not too often. It's a very rare occurrence especially without a tropical entity.


again this starts in just 2 to 3 days. Not 10 days out!
Quoting 661. NativeSun:

There still may be a blog, but the quality has really changed for the worst. I have a lot of people on ignore, but like Taz states, if the ignored commenter is quoted, I can read it any ways. I would rather read a post about the El Nino from Scott than here all the AGW garbage that takes up a large portion of these blogs even though a lot of the blogs are not concerning AGW. Please don't come back and state that AGW effects the weather so it's relevant, climate change affects the weather and climate change and AGW are two different animals.


AGW and climate change are two different things. Each of them affects the weather, and AGW affects climate change.
Quoting 669. StormTrackerScott:



again this starts in just 2 to 3 days. Not 10 days out!

Does'nt it say from the 13th to the 23rd? That's 10 days or am I in a fog this morning?
Quoting 661. NativeSun:

... climate change and AGW are two different animals.

Nice try, bluff called and found hollow.
Climate change and AGW today are the same thing.
Of course there's, as always, some natural change but it is worse than negligable compared to AGW. Said I: worse than negligable. Because the natural change is wee bit colder, totally obliterated by AGW for millenia to come.
Quoting 643. StormTrackerScott:

In Some cases in certain Nino regions we are ahead of 1997 others behind. Kind of a toss up as to which one is stronger at this point.

Today's readings per CPC

Niño 4: +1.1°C
Niño 3.4: +1.5°C
Niño 3: +2.1C
Niño 1+2: +3.3°C



On average the 1997 El nino is still ahead by a bit, we still need consistant warming to keep up.
Quoting 671. Bucsboltsfan:


Does'nt it say from the 13th to the 23rd? That's 10 days or am I in a fog this morning?


It's a precip accum through Day 10. So, the events it's depicting are not 10 days out necessarily. All of the precip could occur on Day 1, in theory.
Quoting 664. StormTrackerScott:



It's not 10 days out its a precip accum thru day 10. Models are showing this beginning this week across FL as a upper trough slides in and stalls out over the area. Again this NOT 10 days out more like a few days out is when this pattern begins.




Well, usually Tampa sees a large scale rain event over the course of a few days in July every year, and we haven't had one yet, so maybe this is it. 15 inches seems a bit much though, but I'm interested to see if the Euro continues to depict that and/or if the GFS comes on board. It'll be an interesting week for sure!
Looks like a TS

Quoting 676. SFLWeatherman:

Looks like a TS

Looks a like duck, quakes like a duck, swimming like a duck.... hmmm must be a ...
Up to 30 kts
AL, 92, 2015071312, 01, CARQ, 0, 368N, 694W, 30, 1008, LO, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 60, 10, INVEST, M,

Caribbean Water Vapor looks interesting.

Link
Okay, here's a well weird meteorological phenomenon that will get Wundergrounders scratching their heads. Video shows a small cloud that starts acting very strangely. I'm sure we'll solve it.

Link
Quoting 674. tampabaymatt:



It's a precip accum through Day 10. So, the events it's depicting are not 10 days out necessarily. All of the precip could occur on Day 1, in theory.


I get that.
MDR doesn't know what to do.


Looks slightly decoupled but idk looks more than 10%
Quoting 675. tampabaymatt:



Well, usually Tampa sees a large scale rain event over the course of a few days in July every year, and we haven't had one yet, so maybe this is it. 15 inches seems a bit much though, but I'm interested to see if the Euro continues to depict that and/or if the GFS comes on board. It'll be an interesting week for sure!


Either way I wouldn't focus on a number but instead focus on the pattern itself which favors heavy rains coming off the Gulf starting later this week as a result of a stalled boundary. Euro keeps the same pattern in place from day 3 thru day 10 so atleast 7 days of very heavy rains across FL on the way.
Quoting 679. JustDucky251:


Caribbean Water Vapor looks interesting.

Link


it's called King Tutt.
Quoting 666. JustDucky251:



How long will it be before the images from closeup get here? I know they were not planning to transmit data until after the pass was done to keep from overloading systems, but will it be the next day or when?


All the data will take many months to transmit. Hopefully they can send back one or two of the close fly bys to tide us over for the long long wait.
Quoting 653. weathermanwannabe:

And the Conus forecast for today:




Bad news for the Home Run Derby in Cincinnati and the All-Star game festivities this week.
Quoting 680. yonzabam:

Okay, here's a well weird meteorological phenomenon that will get Wundergrounders scratching their heads. Video shows a small cloud that starts acting very strangely. I'm sure we'll solve it.

Link
If it's this Hector Garcia, it might be the explanation.
Quoting 652. StormTrackerScott:



2015 is much warmer west than 1997 and the warmer anomalies are more spread out as well. I would be concerned if i were you because this event is going to surpass 1997 as there is a rapidly 3rd Kelvin Wave developing beneath 180W and this will be what drives us past 1997 especially across nino 3.4. Remember 1997's heat was more concentrated this years event is massive and getting stronger ever week especially after we just had a record MJO & WWB. All this will do is cause sea surface anomalies to rise in dramatic fashion the next several week.

2015


1997



The extreme + Pacific Meridional Mode certainly contributed to the record breaking warmth across the Eastern Pacific MDR, unfortunately, the NOAA data hasn't updated since February so I'm not sure precisely where we rank, but this year was in the top 5 in the SST component as of last January. I'd be careful with using the MJO as evidence of this El Nino being of exceptional caliber, the MJO-ENSO relationship is completely overshadowed by the 1997-98 Super El Nino & in a majority of cases, the MJO's role (in terms of amplitude) is minimal at best & sure you could argue that seeing 2 record breaking events in the central Pacific has helped in this case, but 1982-83 is a fantastic example of an extreme ENSO event that strengthened with a nonexistent intraseasonal component... The MJO's fingerprints (wrt amplitude) are only evident preceding the 1997-98, 1988-89 events, there's a collection of neutral ENSO events that were preceded by above normal-exeptional MJO regimes.

91 day running average of the mean MJO amplitude 1974-2015


Even though we haven't officially met the seasonal criteria in the SST indices, I don't see how we avoid a strong El Nino now, we just observed the strongest MEI & BEST values since 1997-98 (w/ respectable values historically) & even if we begin to observe a collapse hereafter as in 1987-88, we're very likely to at least still end up fairly close to the strong threshold. This doesn't look quite as potent as 1982-83 & 1997-98 thus far, but I think an upper-end strong event similar to 1888-89, 1902-03, 1940-41, & 1972-73 is a reasonable solution at this juncture...
Quoting 688. sar2401:

If it's this Hector Garcia, it might be the explanation.


Good suggestion. So, just some photographic jiggery pokery, maybe.
Quoting 631. MoltenIce:



New Horizons isn't a "Flagship" mission so it can't be a Pluto orbiter. Sad fact, NASA is holding off launching any Flagship missions due to budget issues. Last Flagship-class mission was the Curiosity rover.


A Pluto flyby is one thing. A Pluto Orbiter is a whole different animal.

Pluto has no atmosphere and a tiny gravity well. That means you need a lot of fuel to brake the probe down to a speed where it can reach a stable orbit. Targets that have an atmosphere, the process is made easier by aerobraking in the upper layers of the target's atmosphere. For a target like Pluto, you're on your own.

For a probe the size of New Horizons traveling at it's current speed, it would require tons of additional equipment and fuel to get into orbit. They had to fight tooth and nail just to get the money for a flyby probe. There is no way in the current "science is the devil" dark age mentality that they would even come close to what was needed to develop a Pluto orbiter.
Quoting 689. Webberweather53:



The extreme + Pacific Meridional Mode certainly contributed to the record breaking warmth across the Eastern Pacific MDR, unfortunately, the NOAA data hasn't updated since February so I'm not sure precisely where we rank, but this year was in the top 5 in the SST component as of last January. I'd be careful with using the MJO as evidence of this El Nino being of exceptional caliber, the MJO-ENSO relationship is completely overshadowed by the 1997-98 Super El Nino & in a majority of cases, the MJO's role (in terms of amplitude) is minimal at best & sure you could argue that seeing 2 record breaking events in the central Pacific has helped in this case, but 1982-83 is a fantastic example of an extreme ENSO event that strengthened with a nonexistent intraseasonal component... The MJO's fingerprints (wrt amplitude) are only evident preceding the 1997-98, 1988-89 events, there's a collection of neutral ENSO events that were preceded by above normal-exeptional MJO regimes.

91 day running average of the mean MJO amplitude 1974-2015


Even though we haven't officially met the seasonal criteria in the SST indices, I don't see how we avoid a strong El Nino now, we just observed the strongest MEI & BEST values since 1997-98 (w/ respectable values historically) & even if we begin to observe a collapse hereafter as in 1987-88, we're very likely to at least still end up fairly close to the strong threshold. This doesn't look quite as potent as 1982-83 & 1997-98 thus far, but I think an upper-end strong event similar to 1888-89, 1902-03, 1940-41, & 1972-73 is a reasonable solution at this juncture...


Good post webber. The overall warmth being more widespread across the Pacific has me wondering about the Winter set up across the US. I think the Southern Jet is a lock and a wet FL is a lock but California is my question given the set up I see as I have been seeing some runs of the CFSv2 keeping Cali dry during December which is strange as strong El-Nino's typically drive heavy rains across Cali. SE US I think will be wet and potentially some frozen precip from North GA up across NC at times this Winter as some of this precip (Northern edge) interacts with some colder air further north.
Quoting 661. NativeSun:

There still may be a blog, but the quality has really changed for the worst.
I don't believe the quality of the blog has changed for the worse; in fact, with both Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson writing it, I think it's better than it's ever been. Now, as to whether this forum has gone up or down in "quality", I think that's too subjective. Personally, I think some of the current active members are intelligent, eloquent, and interesting, while I find others to be repetitive and prone to bouts of complaining about how things aren't any fun any more. But that's how communities are, you know?
Quoting 661. NativeSun:

I would rather read a post about the El Nino from Scott than here all the AGW garbage that takes up a large portion of these blogs even though a lot of the blogs are not concerning AGW.
I'm curious as to how you define "garbage". care to share?
Quoting 661. NativeSun:

Please don't come back and state that AGW effects the weather so it's relevant, climate change affects the weather and climate change and AGW are two different animals.
Actually, no, they're not. In reality, the latter is a subset of the former. See, the planet's climate is changing in response to the millions of tons of CO2 we're pumping into it every hour. Global warming is one of the most significant and fast-developing aspects of that changing climate.

Hope that clears it up...
Quoting 689. Webberweather53:



The extreme + Pacific Meridional Mode certainly contributed to the record breaking warmth across the Eastern Pacific MDR, unfortunately, the NOAA data hasn't updated since February so I'm not sure precisely where we rank, but this year was in the top 5 in the SST component as of last January. I'd be careful with using the MJO as evidence of this El Nino being of exceptional caliber, the MJO-ENSO relationship is completely overshadowed by the 1997-98 Super El Nino & in a majority of cases, the MJO's role (in terms of amplitude) is minimal at best & sure you could argue that seeing 2 record breaking events in the central Pacific has helped in this case, but 1982-83 is a fantastic example of an extreme ENSO event that strengthened with a nonexistent intraseasonal component... The MJO's fingerprints (wrt amplitude) are only evident preceding the 1997-98, 1988-89 events, there's a collection of neutral ENSO events that were preceded by above normal-exeptional MJO regimes.

91 day running average of the mean MJO amplitude 1974-2015


Even though we haven't officially met the seasonal criteria in the SST indices, I don't see how we avoid a strong El Nino now, we just observed the strongest MEI & BEST values since 1997-98 (w/ respectable values historically) & even if we begin to observe a collapse hereafter as in 1987-88, we're very likely to at least still end up fairly close to the strong threshold. This doesn't look quite as potent as 1982-83 & 1997-98 thus far, but I think an upper-end strong event similar to 1888-89, 1902-03, 1940-41, & 1972-73 is a reasonable solution at this juncture...


The only thing I would say we need to see what are the effects going to be from the record strong MJO/WWB. Some unknowns there and won't know fully until August.
Code orange everyone, repeat code orange!!
Quoting 661. NativeSun:

There still may be a blog, but the quality has really changed for the worst. I have a lot of people on ignore, but like Taz states, if the ignored commenter is quoted, I can read it any ways. I would rather read a post about the El Nino from Scott than here all the AGW garbage that takes up a large portion of these blogs even though a lot of the blogs are not concerning AGW. Please don't come back and state that AGW effects the weather so it's relevant, climate change affects the weather and climate change and AGW are two different animals.


The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as "a change in climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods"
Quoting 663. Bucsboltsfan:



He does. The same guys that police that blog police this one too. I'm 100% on-board with global warming. I just don't let it bother me if someone thinks differently. That's their choice and their right to post what they want. I simply ignore and move on.


This is supposed to be a science blog, not some conspiracy driven site full of nutters like WUWT. Ignoring them unfortunately doesn't make their posts go away, and since I happen to like the site I'd much rather see it thrive than overrun by anti-science crazies.

But that's just me.
Quoting 691. Xyrus2000:



A Pluto flyby is one thing. A Pluto Orbiter is a whole different animal.

Pluto has no atmosphere and a tiny gravity well. That means you need a lot of fuel to brake the probe down to a speed where it can reach a stable orbit. Targets that have an atmosphere, the process is made easier by aerobraking in the upper layers of the target's atmosphere. For a target like Pluto, you're on your own.

For a probe the size of New Horizons traveling at it's current speed, it would require tons of additional equipment and fuel to get into orbit. They had to fight tooth and nail just to get the money for a flyby probe. There is no way in the current "science is the devil" dark age mentality that they would even come close to what was needed to develop a Pluto orbiter.


I think that an orbiter of the same mass could have been sent using about the same amount of fuel if you don't mind waiting maybe a century or so for it to arrive there.
Quoting 661. NativeSun:

There still may be a blog, but the quality has really changed for the worst. I have a lot of people on ignore, but like Taz states, if the ignored commenter is quoted, I can read it any ways. I would rather read a post about the El Nino from Scott than here all the AGW garbage that takes up a large portion of these blogs even though a lot of the blogs are not concerning AGW. Please don't come back and state that AGW effects the weather so it's relevant, climate change affects the weather and climate change and AGW are two different animals.

The most eloquent statement of ignorance of reality I have ever read. SMH.
Quoting 680. yonzabam:

Okay, here's a well weird meteorological phenomenon that will get Wundergrounders scratching their heads. Video shows a small cloud that starts acting very strangely. I'm sure we'll solve it.

Link

Looks like a sheet of thin plastic debris to me. Definitely not a cloud.
Good Morning all..

need.numbers
Quoting 695. TCweatherman:

Code orange everyone, repeat code orange!!
yes chances somehow went up to 40%,good thing they believe 92 wont affect the states,not yet anyway gee
Quoting 697. Xyrus2000:



This is supposed to be a science blog, not some conspiracy driven site full of nutters like WUWT. Ignoring them unfortunately doesn't make their posts go away, and since I happen to like the site I'd much rather see it thrive than overrun by anti-science crazies.

But that's just me.


Is it really supposed to be a science blog or a blog for weather enthusiasts? Dr. Rood's is most definitely a science blog.
I think 92L could be classified later today as T.D 2 or Claudette.Looks organized to me but then again I'm no expert :) but then again after what last years hurricanes looked like...Does anyone know if a aircraft investigation has been called?
Quoting 652. StormTrackerScott:



2015 is much warmer west than 1997 and the warmer anomalies are more spread out as well. I would be concerned if i were you because this event is going to surpass 1997 as there is a rapidly 3rd Kelvin Wave developing beneath 180W and this will be what drives us past 1997 especially across nino 3.4. Remember 1997's heat was more concentrated this years event is massive and getting stronger ever week especially after we just had a record MJO & WWB. All this will do is cause sea surface anomalies to rise in dramatic fashion the next several week.



Any guesses why there is such a strong cold anomaly signal south of Greenland this year ? It doest appear in other El Nino years that i could find in the Nesdis plots.
00z Navgem Ensembles..

Any guesses why there is such a strong cold anomaly signal south of Greenland this year ? It doest appear in other El Nino years that i could find in the Nesdis plots.



MELTING ICE
Quoting 706. Bucsboltsfan:



Is it really supposed to be a science blog or a blog for weather enthusiasts? Dr. Rood's is most definitely a science blog.

Well....
Understanding weather should relate to science or you could have visions of a great bearded giant blowing the wind around the sky. An analogy would be motorcycle enthusiasts not understanding the science of tire pressure and proceed to ride until that blow out on the freeway. RIP.
Quoting 706. Bucsboltsfan:



Is it really supposed to be a science blog or a blog for weather enthusiasts? Dr. Rood's is most definitely a science blog.


Would you be okay if someone continuously posted that "tropical storms weren't real" day in or day out?
Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson devote a large portion of this blog to climate change and global warming, getting the facts right is an important issue. Why not question the people who when presented with facts day in and day out, not only by us, but by Dr. Masters and Dr. Hensen, reject those facts in favor of ideological bias? Why is it instead turned around like we are doing something wrong by posting information and correcting misinformation / disinformation?

Quoting 659. Bucsboltsfan:



10 days out and we've seen those models be wrong so may times. 15" inches is a lot of rain without a tropical system. Heck, look at yesterday - nothing too extreme happened.
The only thing the ECMWF shows is a 1005 mb low that somehow dropped intact all the way from Colorado to over south Louisiana. I can't imagine how that could produce 15" of rain for Tampa. Assuming any of this was true, there's a more likely low off North Carolina about to enter the Atlantic at the same time. With models 10 days out, things like total precipitation can get disconnected from the other parts of the model and show some weird results. If this was five days out and showed a developing low in the Gulf, then it might get interesting.

Quoting 707. washingtonian115:

I think 92L could be classified later today as T.D 2 or Claudette.Looks organized to me but then again I'm no expert :) but then again after what last years hurricanes looked like...Does anyone know if a aircraft investigation has been called?


Doesn't look like it:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small non-
tropical area of low pressure located about 350 miles east-northeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become better organized
overnight. Environmental conditions could allow for some
additional development today before becoming unfavorable on
Tuesday while the low accelerates northeastward away from the United
States. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Kimberlain
north atlantic entering a cool phase? sure looks it
Quoting 712. Naga5000:



Would you be okay if someone continuously posted that "tropical storms weren't real" day in or day out?
Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson devote a large portion of this blog to climate change and global warming, getting the facts right is an important issue. Why not question the people who when presented with facts day in and day out, not only by us, but by Dr. Masters and Dr. Hensen, reject those facts in favor of ideological bias? Why is it instead turned around like we are doing something wrong by posting information and correcting misinformation / disinformation?




I get what you are saying. However, most anti agw are not going to change their minds, no matter what you say to them. I simply ignore them and don't let their trolling bother me.
Quoting 705. LargoFl:

yes chances somehow went up to 40%,good thing they believe 92 wont affect the states,not yet anyway gee
It won't ever affect the United States. It's already accelerating northeastward into the Atlantic and has about 20 hours to develop before it hits much colder water and dies. It may even be a TD now by the look of it but, unless it really blows up, I suspect the NHC is going to let this one alone.
Quoting 716. Bucsboltsfan:



I get what you are saying. However, most anti agw are not going to change their minds, no matter what you say to them. I simply ignore them and don't let their trolling bother me.


You say "tomato", I say, "here is a link disputing that absurdity". :)
Quoting 714. Naga5000:



Doesn't look like it:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small non-
tropical area of low pressure located about 350 miles east-northeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become better organized
overnight. Environmental conditions could allow for some
additional development today before becoming unfavorable on
Tuesday while the low accelerates northeastward away from the United
States. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Kimberlain
It would be nice to have some information on what is going on in the storm.The HH proved last year again and again why they're needed.I'm sure Fay and Bertha wouldn't be deemed hurricanes without the information that was received from the planes.
Quoting 714. Naga5000:



Doesn't look like it:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small non-
tropical area of low pressure located about 350 miles east-northeast
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become better organized
overnight. Environmental conditions could allow for some
additional development today before becoming unfavorable on
Tuesday while the low accelerates northeastward away from the United
States. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

Forecaster Kimberlain
Or, more to the point, the NHC is not about to waste the gas on this one -

NOUS42 KNHC 131343
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 13 JULY 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JULY 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-049

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
Quoting 719. washingtonian115:

It would be nice to have some information on what is going on in the storm.The HH proved last year again and again why they're needed.I'm sure Fay and Bertha wouldn't be deemed hurricanes without the information that was received from the planes.


I agree. At least send one of the drones out there.
Quoting 720. sar2401:

Or, more to the point, the NHC is not about to waste the gas on this one -

NOUS42 KNHC 131343
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 13 JULY 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JULY 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-049

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.


That's what I was looking for, thanks!
Quoting 718. Naga5000:



You say "tomato", I say, "here is a link disputing that absurdity". :)


The difference is that I don't have the science background to challenge someone who may posts things that on the surface looks compelling. I guess that's why I'll leave it up to you guys.
Quoting 716. Bucsboltsfan:



I get what you are saying. However, most anti agw are not going to change their minds, no matter what you say to them. I simply ignore them and don't let their trolling bother me.
I don't think it's a matter of changing anyone's mind. If these anti-science posts are allowed to stand with no comment because the usual suspects are all on ignore, the hundreds of lurkers and newbies that read and never post may think there's some validity to the crazy stuff at the nutter's links. The whole "ice age in 2030" story that popped up in the last few days is a good example of something needs comment because it, at first glance, seems possible.
Quoting 708. southfla:

Quoting 652. StormTrackerScott:



2015 is much warmer west than 1997 and the warmer anomalies are more spread out as well. I would be concerned if i were you because this event is going to surpass 1997 as there is a rapidly 3rd Kelvin Wave developing beneath 180W and this will be what drives us past 1997 especially across nino 3.4. Remember 1997's heat was more concentrated this years event is massive and getting stronger ever week especially after we just had a record MJO & WWB. All this will do is cause sea surface anomalies to rise in dramatic fashion the next several week.



Any guesses why there is such a strong cold anomaly signal south of Greenland this year ? It doest appear in other El Nino years that i could find in the Nesdis plots.


It's a strange ENSO and that cold pool near Greenland could lead to a early end to Summer across the East. Something to watch going forward. lots of unseen variables compared to other strong Nino's.
Quoting 723. Bucsboltsfan:



The difference is that I don't have the science background to challenge someone who may posts things that on the surface looks compelling. I guess that's why I'll leave it up to you guys.
Neither do most of the people on here. 92L should at least have a HH fly into it, just for a training mission if nothing else.
Quoting 722. Naga5000:



That's what I was looking for, thanks!
It's the Tropical Cyclone Plan of the Day (TCPOD, since everything needs an acronym) and you can find it here. You have to be careful about the date and time though, since sometimes it can be late and there's already a new TCPOD issued. Not today though. :-)
A lot of areas on the East Coast to see their warmest temperatures at this time of year:






Link
It seems the Atlantic disturbance will turn into a storm after all.

We in Port St. Lucie can smell the wildfires out of Loxahatchee Fl this morning which means the winds are from the SW; that means we will get the afternoon T storms after all- hopefully all the way to the coast.
Quoting 726. NativeSun:

Neither do most of the people on here. 92L should at least have a HH fly into it, just for a training mission if nothing else.
They fly lots of training missions. Flying 350 miles off the coast of North Carolina from Biloxi for what may or may not be a TC uses up more of their limited budget for not much return. The NHC can classify this a TD or TS for whatever short life it may have remaining without the need of aircraft.
92L...

Quoting 724. sar2401:

I don't think it's a matter of changing anyone's mind. If these anti-science posts are allowed to stand with no comment because the usual suspects are all on ignore, the hundreds of lurkers and newbies that read and never post may think there's some validity to the crazy stuff at the nutter's links. The whole "ice age in 2030" story that popped up in the last few days is a good example of something needs comment because it, at first glance, seems possible.

This is the reason I take potshots at climate revisionism sometimes (though I usually only give out my other reason for doing that: amusement in a worrying debate about a worrying subject, where part of the participants abuse others - I return that once a while).
Quoting 721. Naga5000:



I agree. At least send one of the drones out there.
The NHC only has four Coyote drones and they don't have the range to fly from the coast to the developing storm. They have to be air dropped from an equipped C-130. The also don't have the ability to fly back to land and touch down at an airstrip. Once they're launched, the NHC waves goodbye to $22,000. If this was a developing storm threatening the coast, that would be one thing. Wasting a drone on this low isn't likely.
Quoting 712. Naga5000:



Would you be okay if someone continuously posted that "tropical storms weren't real" day in or day out?
Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson devote a large portion of this blog to climate change and global warming, getting the facts right is an important issue. Why not question the people who when presented with facts day in and day out, not only by us, but by Dr. Masters and Dr. Hensen, reject those facts in favor of ideological bias? Why is it instead turned around like we are doing something wrong by posting information and correcting misinformation / disinformation?



Exactly...
There is a clear answer to that one, of course. Any newly interested person in the subject doing the google on climate change and whatever could be related, lands first on the vast array of echo chambers of climate revisionism. Then, many do not persevere to reach the actual science (& facts). Fortunately, some do, and they can be seen learning by the nanosecond.
Quoting 690. yonzabam:



Good suggestion. So, just some photographic jiggery pokery, maybe.
If you click on his wedding video at the bottom of the page, you'll hear exactly the same birds singing that were singing in the "cloud" video. It's also the smoothest panning video I've ever seen for having supposedly been done on a cell phone. Maybe just a coincidence though.

EDIT: Looks like our boy Hector is also posting other videos on UFO conspiracy sites. This one is in Taxco, Mexico. Apparently Hector really gets around, although this video is not his best work. I'm sure there are others but this is enough for me to know what that "cloud" really was.
Quoting 713. sar2401:

The only thing the ECMWF shows is a 1005 mb low that somehow dropped intact all the way from Colorado to over south Louisiana. I can't imagine how that could produce 15" of rain for Tampa. Assuming any of this was true, there's a more likely low off North Carolina about to enter the Atlantic at the same time. With models 10 days out, things like total precipitation can get disconnected from the other parts of the model and show some weird results. If this was five days out and showed a developing low in the Gulf, then it might get interesting.




My guess is that one run of the Euro picked up on some sort of training event happening, and that’s what led to the 15” bullseye in that particular run of the model. There were some areas that showed 15” inches, and others about 10 miles north of those areas that showed 5” or 6”. As I noted earlier, the GFS is not showing anywhere near those totals for FL, but that doesn’t surprise me. I hope that we can see the next run of the Euro posted on here to see if there is any consistency.
Actually drying out some in my DC metro location. Soil moisture is close to optimal rather than soggy.
But there is flash flooding to my southwest (200km) and it looks moist today through wednesday.

738. NNYer
Quoting 710. ricderr:

Any guesses why there is such a strong cold anomaly signal south of Greenland this year ? It doest appear in other El Nino years that i could find in the Nesdis plots.



MELTING ICE


The persistent ridge over the Northeastern Pacific, which corresponds with a persistent trough over Eastern Canada, Northeast US, and the Northwest Atlantic. Been a bit cooler in my neck of the woods, at least up to the last couple days. On average though, cooler than recent normal.
Quoting 725. StormTrackerScott:



It's a strange ENSO and that cold pool near Greenland could lead to a early end to Summer across the East. Something to watch going forward. lots of unseen variables compared to other strong Nino's.


Not convinced that cold pool is large enough to change the circulation significantly. Course if I'm wrong it won't
be the first time.

Warmth persisting in the western Pacific even as it builds in the Eastern Pacific is a nonclassical El Nino evolution and suggests the possibility of a nonclassical winter response this winter. I've already declared
I expect a classical response so of course again I could be wrong.
Some posts questioning the cool spot south of Greenland. It is a persistent phenomenon of past years (check w/ the NASA/GISS charts).
A wrap-up of possible explanations:
What’s going on in the North Atlantic? and A hypothesis about the cold winter in eastern North America - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015 /03/a-hypothesis-about-the-cold-winter-in-eastern- north-america/#sthash.jgr30VLU.dpuf.
92L....on a Exodus to nowhere.

Quoting 661. NativeSun:

There still may be a blog, but the quality has really changed for the worst. I have a lot of people on ignore,


Right back at ya NS.

Eagles - Get Over It
Tropical peatland carbon losses from oil palm plantations may be underestimated
New study uncovers limitations in past carbon calculations, suggests improved strategies

Summary:
Peatlands — waterlogged, organic soils — have developed over thousands of years as carbon storage systems. In Southeast Asia, peat swamp forests cover about 250,000 square kilometers, a land area about the size of Michigan. Draining tropical peatlands for oil palm plantations may result in nearly twice as much carbon loss as official estimates, according to a new study.

Link
Smoke near the pole.



@cRRKampen, thanks for the reply. Gulf Stream slow down was my suspicion, unfortunately.
741. cRRKampen
11:00 AM EDT on July 13, 2015

I am leaning in the direction of the theories that the cold pool off of Greenland is contributing to a potential pile-up of warmer waters from the Gulf Stream off the US East Coast; may have helped 92L go tropical and with the snowfall issues this past winter in Boston:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Study: Melting Greenland ice sheet is rapidly slowing the Gulf Stream


The Northern Hemisphere winter of 2014-15 was the warmest on record globally, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But if you look closely at global temperature maps, it becomes clear that one area of the North Atlantic conspicuously bucked the trend, as it has during many years since 1970.

That region was, in fact, the coldest it has been since the dawn of instrument records, at up to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit colder than average. According to a new study, this cold pool may be an indicator of a dramatic slowdown in the Gulf Stream, which transports vast amounts of heat north from the equator to the pole, passing off the East Coast of the U.S. and into the North Atlantic.


If true, this is vindication for those who think global warming is likely to trigger so-called "tipping points" in the climate system, which, once set into motion, cannot be stopped. The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had judged that there is up to a 10% likelihood of a Gulf Stream shutdown before year 2100, though many climate scientists estimate this likelihood is even higher.

"Evidence is mounting that the long-feared circulation decline is already well underway," says co-author Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, in a blog post for RealClimate.

The slowdown in this current, the study finds, is unprecedented in hundreds to perhaps as long as 1,000 years, and is most likely related to another tipping point, which is the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The influx of freshwater from the ice sheet is one of the main sources of freshwater inflow into the North Atlantic Ocean.

As it pours into the Atlantic, the freshwater is lighter and colder than heavier, salty water that typically occupies that area. It therefore tends to sit on top of the water column, accumulating over the years and interfering with the formation and sinking of dense, cold and salt-enriched waters. This chokes off the northward flowing Gulf Stream, slowing it down, and affecting ocean circulation downstream as well.

No new ice age, at least not yet...

While it's not anywhere close to the apocalypse that a rapid Gulf Stream shutdown was shown to be in the 2004 blockbuster disaster film The Day After Tomorrow, a rapid slowdown in this current would boost sea level rise rates along the highly populated Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the U.S. It could also bring much cooler conditions than is currently the norm to parts of northern Europe.

The study also calls into question many of the assumptions made by climate modelers in designing state of the art computer models, since the study shows that these models may be underestimating the speed and magnitude of ocean current trends in the North Atlantic. Most models show a progressive weakening of the Gulf Stream as global warming continues, but few have suggested it would be so significant, so soon.

Michael Mann, a coauthor of the study and director of the Earth Systems Science Center at Penn State University, told Mashable in an email:

Once again, we are learning that the climate model projections may be too conservative. In this case, the fact that the Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass and contributing to freshwater runoff into the North Atlantic decades ahead of schedule may be the reason that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening decades ahead of schedule as well.

The Gulf Stream is one part of a vast global undersea infrastructure known as the thermohaline circulation, also referred to as the "Global Conveyor Belt." This circulation, which extends from pole to pole and throughout every ocean, is powered by density differences in ocean waters in different areas of the world. If you disturb any part of this circulation, the entire thing is liable to have a major hiccup If you disturb any part of this circulation, the entire thing is liable to have a major hiccup, like an escalator with something stuck in its gears.

The study makes a strong case that we have already stuck that wrench in the ocean circulation's gears by melting more polar land ice, although it provides for the possibility that natural variability or other factors are also to blame for the post-1970 slowdown in the AMOC of which the Gulf Stream is a crucial part.

"[This is] Another reminder that uncertainty is not our friend when it comes to human-caused climate change. It appears to be cutting against us, rather than in our favor, once again," Mann said.

more,
i know that some like to comapre this enso event with '97.......but looking at the eq pacific tao.......i couldn't find a july 97 to comapre with this years july....but i found a september 97 graph....and you can compare where we are now and what we have to get to in september...and i just can't see it happening.....

current TAO





september 1997 TAO



as you can see there is a huge difference in anomalies that we're going to have to climb too

in july '97 close to this date we were at a 1.8c anomaly, 0.3c higher than where we are now....and by september it had climbed 4 points to a 2.2 anomaly

if we could expect the same rise of 4 points we would see a strong reading of 1.8 and if it could hold it then this event would go down as strong......but no way a super el nino

now the driver of this event of course is the current kelvin wave.....and i think comparing this years KW to '97's is important...and it's important to note...that the enso 3.4 region traverses from about 170 degrees eastward to 120 degrees....when we look at this year....we can see that throughout the 3.4 area...the anomaly at all depths is no more than 2.0C above average until about 150 degrees.....when looking at the '97 kelvin wave...throughout the 3.4 area at depths the anomaly was from 3C to over 7C above average throughout the entire 3.4 region...as you can see from the '97 kelvin wave through september it moved east about 15 degrees and surfaced....if we could expect the same this year...that means less than a quarter of the 3.4 region could see anomalies greater than 3 c and the majority of the region would be less than a 2C anomaly





Quoting 430. LAbonbon:

Mods-I think I hit a flag in error again. Went to plus Largo's post #418, and think I may have hit the flag instead.

Any chance of having the flag button moved away from the plus button (maybe swap it with that other 'eye' button)?
No problem - the flag has been removed from that comment.