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Weakening Typhoon Chan-hom Still a Major Storm Surge Threat for Shanghai

By: Jeff Masters 4:08 PM GMT on July 10, 2015

Category 3 Typhoon Chan-hom is steadily weakening as it heads northwest at 10 mph towards China. The storm has slowed down and turned more to the north as it "feels" the steering influence of a trough of low pressure to its north, and the latest round of computer model forecasts have nudged the track of Chan-hom to the east, and it is possible that the center of Chan-hom will not make landfall in China. The 10 am EDT Friday forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and 8:50 am EDT Friday forecast from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) predicted that Chan-hom would graze the coast of China and pass close to or just offshore from Shanghai on Saturday evening local time (Saturday morning in the U.S.) On this path, Shanghai, China's most populous city with 23 million people in the metro area, would be on the weak side of the storm, and receive only modest wind damage and heavy rain. However, Chan-hom would still drive a large storm surge into Shanghai, and this storm surge could be one of the highest ever observed, equivalent to a 1-in-200 year flood. Even though Chan-hom is weakening due to cooler waters and interaction with land, part of the weakening is due to an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses and is replaced by a larger-diameter outer eyewall. While this process weakens the peak winds near the center, it spreads the typhoon-strength winds over a larger area, increasing the size of the storm surge.


Figure 1. Typhoon Chan-hom as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at approximately 10 pm EDT Thursday, July 9, 2015 (02 UTC.) At the time, Chan-hom was a weakening Category 4 storm with winds of about 130 mph. Image credit: NASA Worldview.

Chan-hom's storm surge
Chan-hom is a very large typhoon with tropical-storm force winds that extended outwards up to 310 miles from the center, which will pile up a large storm surge throughout the Yellow Sea, from China to the Korean Peninsula. Since the Yellow Sea is shallow and enclosed on three sides, this water will be forced up onto land over Shanghai as Chan-hom makes its closest approach. In their 10 am EDT Friday forecast, JTWC predicted that Chan-hom would be a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds (1-minute average) at 12 UTC Saturday, which would make it just 5 mph weaker than the strongest landfalling storm to hit within 200 miles of Shanghai in the past 35 years, Typhoon Winnie of August 1997. As I discussed in detail in my previous post, the storm surge from Winnie was only 5.5" (14 cm) below the top of the 19.2-foot (5.86 meter) Suzhou Creek floodgate that protects downtown Shanghai.

Low tide in Shanghai is at 07:07 UTC Saturday, and high tide is at 12:48 UTC Saturday, at a time when the center of Chan-hom is predicted to be 20 - 80 miles south of the city. Thus, the counter-clockwise circulation around the center will be pushing water into the city at high tide. Fortunately, this high tide is not a very high one--high tides late next week will be more than two feet higher than this. Though Chan-hom will be weakening as it approaches Shanghai during Saturday's high tide, the typhoon will be capable of pushing a record-size storm surge into the city during this 12:48 UTC Saturday high tide. I've read several studies explaining how storm surge propagation in the Yellow Sea is extremely complicated, so I am unsure just how the great the risk is from this storm without seeing data from a sophisticated real-time storm surge model.



Figure 2. Predicted swath of winds (top) and precipitation (bottom) for Typhoon Chan-hom, made by the 06 UTC (2 am EDT) Friday, July 10 run of the HWRF model. The model predicted that Chan-hom would graze the coast near Shanghai as a strong tropical storm, bringing rainfall amounts of 4 - 8" near the coast (dark yellow colors), and 2 - 4" farther inland. The typhoon was also forecast to bring large areas of 4 - 8" of rain to North Korea, which is suffering one of its worst droughts on record. Image credit: NOAA.

Chan-hom's rains and winds
With the latest round of model runs showing the Chan-hom will not penetrate far inland, wind damage is looking to be less of a concern, since most of the land areas affected will be on the weaker (left) side of the eye. The prospect for heavy damage due to flooding from torrential rains is also looking lower, as Chan-hom may only dump heavy rains of 4 - 8" along the immediate coast (Figure 2.) As Chan-hom turns to the north, it is expected to track over North Korea, which could use the rain--they have reportedly been suffering through their worst drought in 100 years, though rains in June have likely eased the drought.


Figure 3. Tracks of all typhoons with at least 75 mph winds (10-minute average winds as rated by the Japan Meteorological Agency) to pass within a 230-mile diameter circle (light shaded region) near Shanghai, China. Typhoon Winnie is labeled in white. Ten-minute average winds of 75 mph are roughly equivalent to 85 mph winds for the one-minute averaging time winds used for the U.S. Saffir-Simpson scale. All of the storms in this plot had sustained 10-minute average winds of 75 mph or less when they made landfall. Image credit: NOAA.

Strong typhoons hitting near Shanghai: a rare occurrence
China gets hit by about nine tropical cyclones (tropical depression, tropical storms, or typhoons) each year (Chen, 2000), but these strikes occur primarily in the southern portion of the country. The Jiangsu Province where Shanghai lies received only seven landfalls in the 50-year period 1947 - 1999, so the region does not have a lot of typhoon experience. Since 1979, no typhoon with winds in excess of about 85 mph (75 mph winds using a 10-minute averaging time) has made landfall within about 200 miles of Shanghai (Figure 2.) Historically, the strongest typhoon to affect the city in the past century may be Typhoon Gloria of July 24 - 25, 1949, whose storm surge overwhelmed the city's flood walls and left much of Shanghai a flooded ruin, with over 250,000 people homeless (See David Longshore's Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones). Note that Typhoon Wanda of 1956 was at Category 3 strength when it hit the coast of China about 100 miles south of Shanghai. Wanda killed 2000 people in China. China has had four typhoons that have killed at least 37,000 people each--most recently in 1975, when torrential rains from what had been Super Typhoon Nina caused the Banqiao Dam to fail, killing 90,000 - 230,000 people.

Links
The new Japanese Himawari satellite has some spectacular imagery of Chan-hom (Sector 4 in Band 3=visible, and Sector 6 in Band 13=IR.)

Chan-hom satellite imagery from NOAA/NESDIS.

Weather radar from China.

Shanghai webcams (thanks to wunderground member fuzed for posting this link.)

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has the latest on the status of El Niño in his latest post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Well, that turn is good news!
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2015 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 27:33:06 N Lon : 123:24:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 947.1mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.0 3.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : -7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -36.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr

Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON


C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 260km
- Environmental MSLP : 998mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.0 degrees



Quoting 263. weathermanwannabe:

Latest eye measurement at 10 nautical mile circumference on Chan-Hom:


TPPN11 PGTW 101527 

A. TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM)

B. 10/1432Z

C. 27.54N

D. 123.48E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/5.0/W2.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 10NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY OW
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.0. PT AGREES. MET
YIELDS A 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0933Z 27.07N 124.30E SSMS
10/0945Z 27.15N 124.25E SSMS
10/1044Z 27.23N 124.17E SSMS
10/1246Z 27.33N 123.82E MMHS


UEHARA

Worth repeating.
I really don't like how the media has uncovered the term "super typhoon". It's an unofficial designation christened by the JTWC, not the JMA. Plus, Chan-hom isn't even a super typhoon anymore.
Invest 97E

Invest 97E
Last Updated Jul 10, 2015 12 GMT
Location 10.0 123.2W Movement NW
Wind 35 MPH
From the previous blog

Quoting 250. Webberweather53:



In your opinion? How about some hard evidence that the NS, H, & MHs counts are superior to the ACE index in measuring in seasonal activity. You do realize that NOAA's standard methodology to measure seasonal activity is the ACE index? See post 241 & read up on some literature while you're at it...

This isn't even an argument...
"The phrase "total overall seasonal activity" refers to the combined intensity and duration of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes occurring during the season. The measure of total seasonal activity used by NOAA is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index."

I get it...

A season with 8 Named Storms, 6 Hurricanes and 1 Major Hurricane (1967) is more active than a season with 15 Named Storms, 6 Hurricanes and 2 Major Hurricanes (2007). LoL
Quoting 4. wxgeek723:

I really don't like how the media has uncovered the term "super typhoon". It's an unofficial designation christened by the JTWC, not the JMA. Plus, Chan-hom isn't even a super typhoon anymore.

Chan-hom never even met the criteria for a Super Typhoon to begin with.

Link
Quoting 3. Barefootontherocks Quoting weathermanwannabe:

Latest eye measurement at 10 nautical mile circumference on Chan-Hom:

Worth repeating.
Careful with the terms -- an eye 10 miles in circumference would be a bit over 3 miles in diameter, surely much smaller than it actually is?
Quoting 7. 1900hurricane:


Chan-hom never even met the criteria for a Super Typhoon to begin with.

Link


Truthfully I haven't been tracking it closely, but no surprise there. That's even more frustrating.
Thank You Dr. Excellent analysis, as usual, on the issue of the tides, height of the seawalls in certain areas, and past experience. As noted this morning by another blogger, the big issue will be with so many coastal villages across the impacted region that are not protected by sea walls. Hoping for the best for them.

Chan-hom is undergoing a textbook eyewall replacement cycle. The inner eyewall remains intact as a much larger, fragmented one develops.

Quoting 9. CaneFreeCR:

Careful with the terms -- an eye 10 miles in circumference would be a bit over 3 miles in diameter, surely much smaller than it actually is?
Surely, Shirley. U.S. advisories are d. Do we have confirmation from the peanut gallery? Is the measurement in this advisory posted at comment 3 (from ?JMA) a C or a d?
From the National Chinese weather service:  http://www.cma.gov.cn/en2014/


The National Meteorological Center issued red warning of typhoon in 6:00 a.m. today. This year's No.9 typhoon Chan-Hom has become super typhoon and entered into southeastern East China Sea on July 9. It located in sea areas which about 550 kilometers from southeast of Wenling, Zhejiang in this 5:00 a.m.

 

It's forecasted that Chan-Hom will move towards northwest at the speed of 20-25 kilometers per hour with gaining intensity then land in coast of Fuding in Fujian and Xiangshan in Zhejiang on night of July 10 to morning of July 11.


At 9:00 a.m. on July 10, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) elevated emergency response to level I, the highest level  to address super typhoon Chan-Hom.

 

Quoting 12. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Chan-hom is undergoing a textbook eyewall replacement cycle. The inner eyewall remains intact as a much larger, fragmented one develops.


A turn and an eyewall replacement cycle. Nice. And yes, I know surge will still happen but, for those who will live it, this is an improvement over what the last blog talked about.
Great article on Vox about the pipeline of Coal powered plants. I've long believed that only two solutions exist for dampening global CO2 emissions in the next 50 years. 1.) First world countries "gift" more expensive lower/zero emission producing products to third world countries or 2.) Technology advancement in carbon sequestration.

I have very little hope for G20 style emission caps to help reduce the global projected increase in CO2 emissions, primarily because of the population growth and energy demands of third world nations, therefore priority/funding should be directed to 1 and 2 above.

http://www.vox.com/2015/7/9/8922901/coal-renaissa nce-numbers
Quoting 13. Barefootontherocks:

Surely, Shirley. U.S. advisories are d. Do we have confirmation from the peanut gallery? Is the measurement in this advisory from ?JMA a C or a d?


If the longitude lines are 10 deg in the image in post 12 and if, at that latitude, degrees are about 60 miles then the eye looks to be about 1/60 th of the line spacing so the diameter would be about 10 miles. 3 mile diameter would be too small to discern.
Quoting 19. JustDucky251:



If the longitude lines are 10 deg in the image in post 12 and if, at that latitude, degrees are about 60 miles then the eye looks to be about 1/60 th of the line spacing so the diameter would be about 10 miles. 3 mile diameter would be too small to discern.
Thank you. And of course that makes sense within basic, general knowledge of tropical cyclones and when they tend to initiate EWRC. Frankly, I did not notice the OC's notation of "circumference," and I assumed the "10" to be diameter until the OC whose bridge broke brought up the caution. Still don't know where the advisory came from... Hawaii? Japan? Anyhow, hope China fares well.
I just spent some time looking at the Tampa airport’s rainfall data from the 1997-1998 El Nino. October and November were pretty normal, but things really got interesting in December. The total rainfall in December was 15.57”, which is crazy for that time of the year. 6.76” fell between 12/10 and 12/13, and 6.33” fell between Christmas and 12/27 (4.32” on 12/27 alone!).

In January 1998, 4.64” fell, with the highest day being 1.85” on 1/23.

In February 1998, 10.82” fell, so again things got interesting. 2.34” on 2/2 and 3.35” on 2/16.

March was slightly above average due to one day where over 3 inches fell, and April was way below average at only 0.41”. May had 1.96”.

So, if we use the 1997-1998 El Nino as an example for Tampa, there were definitely periods where flooding must have been an issue in December, but overall, it was mostly manageable.
I really shouldn't have to do this. Even TC, H, & MH days, or the Power Dissipation Index are superior measures to actual counts because of the integration of multiple variables into determining overall activity. This is the equivalent of trying to say unadjusted NINO SSTs captures more variance & is a better overall indicator than the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) when describing the El Nino Southern Oscillation, clearly we (should) know from Kalus Wolter's literature (among others) & statistical analyses reveal that this isn't true, the overall concept & the reasoning behind using multivariate induces doesn't change when we discuss tropical cyclone activity... At this point Xandra is arguing to be spiteful.

"A useful measure of seasonal activity is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index (Bell et al. 2000, 2004), which accounts for the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes during a
given season
."
"The ACE index (Fig. 2a) is correlated at approximately 0.95 with other measures of seasonal activity such as the Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) index (Gray et al. 1992) and the Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) index (Gray et al. 1998)" Bell & Chelliah (2005)

"The ACE index is one of the most commonly used indices to measure TC activity, which takes into account the number, strength and duration of all TCs in a season."
Wang & Lee (2009)
Quoting 17. Webberweather53:



You still have no idea what you're talking about. The named storm, hurricane, and major hurricane count only bins storms into highly generalized categories & doesn't account for longevity... Longevity*intensity=activity. In the post 1950 & satellite era this is fine for direct comparisons, but it is an extremely weak argument given the inferior TC detection methods in the 1930s, which have been discussed in a multitude of papers on a plethora of occasions under NOAA & in the HURDAT assessments. It's obvious you didn't take my advice to pick up on some literature on the topic before continuing to incessantly drag on your feeble argument (if any)...



What defines an "active" season is a matter of opinion. Your opinion of an active season differs from Xandra's, which is okay. Is there really a need to be insulting and smug about it? Perhaps your point would go over better if you didn't phrase it in such a condescending way.
Quoting 23. tampabaymatt:



What defines an "active" season is a matter of opinion. Your opinion of an active season differs from Xandra's, which is okay. Is there really a need to be insulting and smug about it? Perhaps your point would go over better if you didn't phrase it in such a condescending way.


Agree with you there. He wasn't very nice about it.
Quoting 12. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Chan-hom is undergoing a textbook eyewall replacement cycle. The inner eyewall remains intact as a much larger, fragmented one develops.




Looks like a 75 mph to 80 mph hurricane.
Quoting 23. tampabaymatt:



What defines an "active" season is a matter of opinion. Your opinion of an active season differs from Xandra's, which is okay. Is there really a need to be insulting and smug about it? Perhaps your point would go over better if you didn't phrase it in such a condescending way.


We could end the year with 5 systems but all it takes is 1 major to hit the US then everyone remembers the 2015 hurricane season just like Andrew in 1992. Really concerned with all the warm SST's very close to the US this year and these warm sea surface values extend far to the north in lat.
Quoting 21. tampabaymatt:

I just spent some time looking at the Tampa airport’s rainfall data from the 1997-1998 El Nino. October and November were pretty normal, but things really got interesting in December. The total rainfall in December was 15.57”, which is crazy for that time of the year. 6.76” fell between 12/10 and 12/13, and 6.33” fell between Christmas and 12/27 (4.32” on 12/27 alone!).

In January 1998, 4.64” fell, with the highest day being 1.85” on 1/23.

In February 1998, 10.82” fell, so again things got interesting. 2.34” on 2/2 and 3.35” on 2/16.

March was slightly above average due to one day where over 3 inches fell, and April was way below average at only 0.41”. May had 1.96”.

So, if we use the 1997-1998 El Nino as an example for Tampa, there were definitely periods where flooding must have been an issue in December, but overall, it was mostly manageable.


I remember that December quite well. The rain never seemed to stop training in from the GOM. From your data, the strong El Niño brought us 2 extremely high months of rain - December and February. It will be interesting to see how this winter shakes out. My take is that no 2 El Niño's are alike, so no guarantees of the same events and another question is will climate change impact El Niño? Texas and Oklahoma have already been hit hard yet California has had no beneficial rains. The jet stream is acting differently. So in my opinion it would be foolish at this time to guarantee catastrophic events for California and Florida.
IMO, 2005 is more impressive than 1933. Impressive is subjective of course though, it allows for a case by case analysis of all the metrics. Side-by-side, 2005 blows 1933 away from my perspective. Strictly measured on ACE, 1933 is likely "more active", at least as far as our records know. Nothing wrong with preferring one over the other though, hurricane seasons like most data can be classified all different ways, just depends on the purpose of your study.
Quoting 28. Bucsboltsfan:



I remember that December quite well. The rain never seemed to stop training in from the GOM. From your data, the strong El Niño brought us 2 extremely high months of rain - December and February. It will be interesting to see how this winter shakes out. My take is that no 2 El Niño's are alike, so no guarantees of the same events and another question is will climate change impact El Niño? Texas and Oklahoma have already been hit hard yet California has had no beneficial rains. The jet stream is acting differently. So in my opinion it would be foolish at this time to guarantee catastrophic events for California and Florida.


Correct no GTY's but given the fact that it appears a greater than 2C ENSO is very likely then there is a much greater likely hood of rainfall amounts during the Dry Season @ or higher than what one would expect during the Wet Season across FL. Doesn't mean it will happen but it sure does appear FL is in for a very wet Fall/Winter with potentially Killer Tornadoes come February. These strong El-Nino's tend to bring lots of tornadic activity during the month of February and they seem to always occur at night too.
Quoting 30. StormTrackerScott:



Correct no GTY's but given the fact that it appears a greater than 2C ENSO is very likely then there is a much greater likely hood of rainfall amounts during the Dry Season @ or higher than what one would expect during the Wet Season across FL. Doesn't mean it will happen but it sure does appear FL is in for a very wet Fall/Winter with potentially Killer Tornadoes come February. These strong El-Nino's tend to bring lots of tornadic activity during the month of February and they seem to always occur at night too.

Scott, what does el nino mean for me. I live in Savannah Ga.
Quoting 29. MAweatherboy1:

IMO, 2005 is more impressive than 1933. Impressive is subjective of course though, it allows for a case by case analysis of all the metrics. Side-by-side, 2005 blows 1933 away from my perspective. Strictly measured on ACE, 1933 is likely "more active", at least as far as our records know. Nothing wrong with preferring one over the other though, hurricane seasons like most data can be classified all different ways, just depends on the purpose of your study.


I think another factor is that no one posting here was alive in 1933, apart from Grothar. And there was also no satellite data back then, so there may have been a storm or two missed and we didn't get any images of the storms from back then.

I think 2005 was a more impressive season on paper though, not so much for the number of storms but for the fact there were 4 cateogry 5 storms all of which made landfall at some point (not as category 5s) and the sheer impact those landfalls had, particularly Hurricane Katrina.
Quoting 31. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Scott, what does el nino mean for me. I live in Savannah Ga.


About the same as here in FL. Very wet and cooler than average.
I suspect images like this will be common later this upcoming Winter.

Night of February 22nd 1998 The night when Large Tornado's some of them wedges tore thru C FL. One of them I saw at around 12am heading for Lake Jessup.


Here is the supercell below that rolled thru my area. This cell had a large F3 tornado on the ground moving NE
Quoting 21. tampabaymatt:

I just spent some time looking at the Tampa airport’s rainfall data from the 1997-1998 El Nino. October and November were pretty normal, but things really got interesting in December. The total rainfall in December was 15.57”, which is crazy for that time of the year. 6.76” fell between 12/10 and 12/13, and 6.33” fell between Christmas and 12/27 (4.32” on 12/27 alone!).

In January 1998, 4.64” fell, with the highest day being 1.85” on 1/23.

In February 1998, 10.82” fell, so again things got interesting. 2.34” on 2/2 and 3.35” on 2/16.

March was slightly above average due to one day where over 3 inches fell, and April was way below average at only 0.41”. May had 1.96”.

So, if we use the 1997-1998 El Nino as an example for Tampa, there were definitely periods where flooding must have been an issue in December, but overall, it was mostly manageable.


The 1982-83 El Nino was wet but not extremely so in DC metro and New Jersey (I was in New Jersey). THat
spring was extremely wet until May. Winter was on the mild side but with one huge blizzard. Spring was overall cold.

The 1997-98 winter in DC was mild but not extremely warm. It was notable for a paucity of arctic outbreaks.. Not ONE in December, January or February and I kept my potted citrus out all winter (losing some fruit from a one day polar outbreak 12/31.. I had infant twins.. other things on my mind). The 97-98 winter also had VIRTUALLY NO SNOW (1/10") and was very very wet. Elevated regions of West Virginia had their snowiest winter of record.


It looks like EL Nino is in the cards for this winter and I'm expecting wet and little snow but of course that's not a certainty. Positive PDO if it doesn't break could make for some interesting snow situations. EL Nino signal is actually fairly weak in the Mid Atlantic. It's much stronger in the Midwest, Northern Rockies, plains and Northwest states and also across the deep South.

I'll know when it happens.

Quoting 30. StormTrackerScott:



Correct no GTY's but given the fact that it appears a greater than 2C ENSO is very likely then there is a much greater likely hood of rainfall amounts during the Dry Season @ or higher than what one would expect during the Wet Season across FL. Doesn't mean it will happen but it sure does appear FL is in for a very wet Fall/Winter with potentially Killer Tornadoes come February. These strong El-Nino's tend to bring lots of tornadic activity during the month of February and they seem to always occur at night too.


I think that%u2019s a good way to look at it. It%u2019s likely to be a much wetter than usual dry season for FL with increased chances for severe weather. Let%u2019s put it this way, I keep a hose attached to my pool pump all summer and run it to my driveway, so I%u2019m ready to go at the flip of a switch if my pool gets too high during torrential rain and I need to drain it. Usually I pack the hose away between October and May. I%u2019m leaving the hose in place indefinitely :)
Quoting 30. StormTrackerScott:



Correct no GTY's but given the fact that it appears a greater than 2C ENSO is very likely then there is a much greater likely hood of rainfall amounts during the Dry Season @ or higher than what one would expect during the Wet Season across FL. Doesn't mean it will happen but it sure does appear FL is in for a very wet Fall/Winter with potentially Killer Tornadoes come February. These strong El-Nino's tend to bring lots of tornadic activity during the month of February and they seem to always occur at night too.


IDK. To me the jet stream is a big question mark. There is no question it's changed which is why I'm asking the question. I'm just not ready to go out on s limb and call for killer tornadoes for Florida next February despite what happened in '97 & '98.
Potential setting up in the central Atlantic?

Latest RAMMB and Japan met images; looks like the center never made landfall (turning to the North off of Shanghai) unless the radar loops (which I can't find at the moment) show something different:


Quoting 34. StormTrackerScott:

I suspect images like this will be common later this upcoming Winter.

Night of February 22nd 1998 The night when Large Tornado's some of them wedges tore thru C FL. One of them I saw at around 12am heading for Lake Jessup.



You could be right, but that pesky polar jet has changed a LOT since 1998, and the evidence is that it is having a profound effect on the US tornado season.
Quoting 37. Bucsboltsfan:



IDK. To me the jet stream is a big question mark. There is no question it's changed which is why I'm asking the question. I'm just not ready to go out on s limb and call for killer tornadoes for Florida next February despite what happened in '97 & '98.


I never said its going to happen I'm just saying that Strong El-Nino really heighten the risk for severe weather across FL and these usually aren't your run of the mill storms either. These are more like what you would expect in the Midwest during tornado season. Another thing during strong El-Nino's you can be there is going to be a strong jet streaming overhead for months on in. This is the Winter that anyone living in FL that doesn't already have to please go out an purchase a weather radio.
Nice time loop showing the core weakening with the cooler SST's nearing the coast:

Quoting 40. yonzabam:



You could be right, but that pesky polar jet has changed a LOT since 1998, and the evidence is that it is having a profound effect on the US tornado season.


This wasn't a result of a Polar jet but instead a result of the Sub Tropical jet streaming energy in off the SE Pacific.

Some of these people I knew as I was going to Seminole High at the time.

The storms struck with deadly results in Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Volusia and Brevard counties, with some storms registering F3 on the Fujita scale with more than 200-mph winds. One of the storms, the deadliest of the night with 25 fatalities, touched down and cut a 28-mile track of damage.

Here's the coverage from the Orlando Sentinel from the days after the disaster.

WIND OF ALMOST 260 MPH - A 'HORRIBLE WAY TO DIE'

By Mike Oliver of The Sentinel Staff

Feb. 24, 1998

The death toll from Florida's worst tornado disaster rose Tuesday as rescue workers recovered two more bodies and continued the search for more.

At least 38 people, including three children, were killed. More than 200 are injured, and three are missing.

In the aftermath, the awesome force of the tornado became overwhelmingly clear.

Death by tornado, in the words of a man who lost neighbors, is a "horrible way to die."

"We have different scenarios on each and every case," said Dr. Shashi Gore, Orange-Osceola medical examiner, who had to keep 25 bodies in a rented refrigerator truck. "I think we had three drownings. But I tell you, the most common was blunt-force trauma. For some, it was like falling from a plane."

Some of the victims may have been blown 100 feet into the air and fallen more than a quarter mile away, Gore said.

One of the victims found Tuesday was Penny Hall, 21. Her body was discovered about 3:30 p.m. in a canal near Myrtle Street in Sanford.


The tornado obliterated the mobile home where Hall lived. It also killed Hall's mother, father and fiance. The only survivor of the residence was Hall's 5-year-old daughter, Ashley Himes.

Ashley was found Monday in a daze in woods about 100 yards from the mobile home.

In Osceola County, authorities discovered another victim late Monday in an overturned van in a devastated shopping center near Kissimmee.

One woman was still missing from Ponderosa RV Park, and a man was missing from the Morningside Acres neighborhood as workers employed heavy equipment, specially trained dogs and lots of patience.

Search and rescue teams marked damaged homes to show they had been checked for bodies. Some homes were spray-painted with the names of their owners' insurance companies.

In Volusia County, despite efforts by authorities and friends to scour the St. Johns River, Joel "Lucky" Heaton, 53, still wasn't found after the second day of searching Lake Harney at the Volusia-Seminole line.
Quoting 44. StormTrackerScott:



This wasn't a result of a Polar jet but instead a result of the Sub Tropical jet streaming energy in off the SE Pacific.


But, the polar jet is influencing everything outside the tropics in the northern hemisphere.
Respectfully, there is no comparison between the relatively weak Florida tornadoes and the Mid-West tornadoes fueled by the collision of warm Gulf flow with the cooler air from the Rockies coming over the plains; totally different dynamic; even in an El Nino phase.
Quoting 42. StormTrackerScott:



I never said its going to happen I'm just saying that Strong El-Nino really heighten the risk for severe weather across FL and these usually aren't your run of the mill storms either. These are more like what you would expect in the Midwest during tornado season. Another thing during strong El-Nino's you can be there is going to be a strong jet streaming overhead for months on in. This is the Winter that anyone living in FL that doesn't already have to please go out an purchase a weather radio.


I don't disagree at all. I'm very aware of the impacts - I was here for them. I'm simply asking the question with the jet stream clearly different will that change the impacts of El Niño. Citing the record rains in Texas and Oklahoma with no imact on California.
Quoting 46. weathermanwannabe:

Respectfully, there is no comparison between the relatively weak Florida tornadoes and the Mid-West tornadoes fueled by the collision of warm Gulf flow with the cooler air from the Rockies coming over the plains; totally different dynamic.


F3 tornadoes are weak now you are really reaching. During strong El-Nino's we get some very strong tornadoes here especially in C FL which can be comparable to what you see in the Midwest people don't realize that because you can't really get a visual on them as they all seem to happen at night.
Since there was a reading issue with one blogger. I will post this again.

The storms struck with deadly results in Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Volusia and Brevard counties, with some storms registering F3 on the Fujita scale with more than 200-mph winds. One of the storms, the deadliest of the night with 25 fatalities, touched down and cut a 28-mile track of damage.
Quoting 48. StormTrackerScott:



F3 tornadoes are weak now you are really reaching. During strong El-Nino's we get some very strong tornadoes here especially in C FL which can be comparable to what you see in the Midwest people don't realize that because you can't really get a visual on them as they all seem to happen at night.


Besides the 97/98 year, how many times has Central Florida seen such a catastrophic event as a result of El Niño?
Chan-Hom turning north now:





Both loops courtesy of: Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School
Quoting 46. weathermanwannabe:

Respectfully, there is no comparison between the relatively weak Florida tornadoes and the Mid-West tornadoes fueled by the collision of warm Gulf flow with the cooler air from the Rockies coming over the plains; totally different dynamic; even in an El Nino phase.


Totally agree that the dynamics are not even close, but the tornadoes that hit Central Florida that year were really nasty. Not your typical weak Florida tornado.
Believe me the Tornado i saw at 12am passing just south of Sanford was a wedge. It looked like a stove pipe and it hit right where my Granddad uses to fly his model planes and the area it hit house were torn off the foundations near 17-92 & CTY RD 427.
Just making a valid observation and not interested in any quibbles this pm; you can go ahead and have the blog for the remainder of the afternoon until 5 as usual.

Everyone have a safe weather weekend and wishing the best for our impacted people in China.....WW.
Quoting 53. Bucsboltsfan:



Totally agree that the dynamics are not even close, but the tornadoes that hit Central Florida that year were really nasty. Not your typical weak Florida tornado.


Exactly my point and it was due to enhanced jet activity over FL.
hold on....looks like this may not be correct



Quoting 51. Bucsboltsfan:



Besides the 97/98 year, how many times has Central Florida seen such a catastrophic event as a result of El Ni%uFFFDo?


February 2007 again we had EF3 tornadoes strike up in Umatilla just to my NW in Lake County and that tornado stayed on the ground for 2 counties or more than a hour before lifting just south of Daytona. 2002/2003 was pretty bad too. Spring 1995 (March) weaker tornadoes but more hail than anything.


LADY LAKE, Florida (CNN) -- At least 19 people were killed in one county Friday as catastrophic storms packing tornadoes raked across central Florida.

Lake County authorities said the early-morning storm killed 13 people in the town of Paisley and six more in Lady Lake.

Among the dead were two high school students -- a 17-year-old girl and a boy who was a freshman, said Anna Cowin, superintendent of Lake County Schools. (Watch helicopter tour reveal extent of tornado damage Video)


The boy, one of triplets, was killed along with his parents, while a sister, also one of the triplets, is in serious condition at a hospital, Cowin's office said.

Cowin also said a 7-year-old boy and his father were killed.

Officials in Sumter and Volusia counties, which also were hit, said they had no word of deaths. (Retirees live through a nightmare)

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist declared a state of emergency in Lake, Seminole, Sumter and Volusia counties.

He said he had spoken with President Bush and Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff regarding the importance of receiving federal aid.

In Lady Lake late Friday, Crist told CNN the storm damage was the worst he has ever seen in the state.

"It's like a bomb went off in central Florida," he said. (Watch governor praise 'heroes' in relief effort Video)

FEMA Director David Paulison and several staffers will go to Florida on Saturday or Sunday, a senior FEMA official told CNN.

Volusia County Sheriff Ben Johnson established a curfew from 8 p.m. to 6 a.m. in the affected parts of the county.


"If we find anybody looting, we're going to deal with it," he said at an afternoon news conference.

He also asked would-be volunteers to stay away.

"We have everything in hand at this time," he said.

Volusia County officials preliminarily estimated property damage at $80 million.

The destruction in Paisley, in Lake County, was catastrophic.

"It looks like a total war zone about 300 yards wide," U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson said after touring the region with Crist and others.

Progress Energy, the largest electricity provider in the region, reported at least 15,000 customers without power.

The National Weather Service confirmed that a "significant tornado event" occurred in Lake and Volusia counties.

Damage survey teams were to be sent into the areas after emergency crews completed their work so the weather service can determine the strength of the tornado and its exact path, the weather service said.

Residents say they had no warning

The weather service had warned that the storm was on the way, and local media had advised tornadoes were possible.

But many residents in the region said they did not know such a huge storm was coming.

There are no tornado sirens in the region.

State meteorologist Ben Nelson said "weather services in Melbourne and Tampa provided at least eight to 15 minutes of warning." The storm, Nelson said, "started to produce a tornado once it got into Sumter County" about 3 a.m.

Holly Smith, spokeswoman for the Volusia County Emergency Management Office, said a warning siren would not work in that county because it is "too large of an area." Authorities work closely with the media to get word out, she said.

'Complete devastation' in Lake County

Kevin Lenhart of Lake County Emergency Management said the storm came through at "the worst possible time" -- when people were sleeping.

It hit Sumter and Lake counties first. (Where the storm hit)

"We have complete devastation of homes, businesses, religious institutions. It was unlike perhaps even the hurricanes of 2004," said Christopher Patton of the Lake County Emergency Operations Center.

Among the worst-hit towns was Lady Lake in Lake County. Some mobile home parks in the area were thrashed, the department said.

A distraught young woman said her friend, a 17-year-old girl, was killed in one mobile home park. "I'm so sorry. I really am," she said, adding that she used to wait for the bus with the girl every morning.

An elementary school, Villages Elementary, was opened as a shelter.

The Church of God in Lady Lake was "completely demolished," said Lenhart of the emergency management agency. It's a Pentecostal church serving Lake, Sumter and Marion counties, according to its Web site.
Quoting 55. weathermanwannabe:

Just making a valid observation and not interested in any quibbles this pm; you can go ahead and have the blog for the remainder of the afternoon until 5 as usual.

Everyone have a safe weather weekend and wishing the best for our impacted people in China.....WW.


A not so valid observation I might add
here...let me let NOAA tell the story.....

The El Niño severe weather signal is most pronounced in central and south Florida. Figure 6 illustrates this effect. Tornado reports from NOAA's Storm Data for the period, 1950-2009, shows that, on average, around 15 tornadoes can be expected per year under El Niño conditions, nearly twice that of Neutral and La Niña years. We have broken down El Niño into Weak (WE), Moderate (ME), and Strong El Niño (SE). Under a strong El Niño year, the average is 20 tornado events per year. An event is decribed in the following manner. For example, if there were 5 tornadoes reported in a county on a particular day, it was recorded as one event. Therefore, there will be more reported tornadoes than this figure depicts. The bottom line is, in central and south Florida, the tornado threat in an El Niño year is significantly greater. One further note, the normal time for tornadoes to occur is at night.



The El Niño tornado signal is not as pronounced farther north as in central and south Florida. In north Florida, southeast Alabama, and south Georgia, the threat is always there during the winter, producing between 10 and 15 tornadoes events per year. Our severe weather season is normally from Christmas to late spring. As stated earlier, the normal time for these severe weather events to occur is at night.

Quoting 23. tampabaymatt:



What defines an "active" season is a matter of opinion. Your opinion of an active season differs from Xandra's, which is okay. Is there really a need to be insulting and smug about it? Perhaps your point would go over better if you didn't phrase it in such a condescending way.


First of all I want to mention that tropical Cyclone activity can be monitored aside from the aforementioned methods: computing the difference in SST before & after TC passage (* area of difference), total vertically integrated liquid/cloudiness (OLR, precipitable water, etc.), sensible/latent heat flux, integrated wind speeds (area) w/ thresholds, (all of which would have to be filtered to remove contamination from equatorial waves) and so on & so forth. My opinion differs because I understand that multivariate indices like the PDI, ACE, & NSD, HD, MHD, etc. are better measures of overall activity because they account for multiple sensible "symptoms" of TC activity. Multivariate indices allow for a deeper analysis of a subset of data by broadening your overview of the phenomena of interest, being able to explore "hidden" inter-relationships among variables, reduce sources of noise, and the demensionality of the data. If you compute a family of indices to measure Atlantic hurricane activity, standardize them wrt to the entire record, or even using a moving base period, & perform a Principal Component Analysis to account for the differences in the variance, the indices that will show the highest correspondence to overall TC activity & explain the most variance in all other indices & very likely to have the highest correlations will be those that integrate multiple variables & vis vera. Many are often drawn to the Named Storm, Hurricane, & Major Hurricane counts, but again this only accounts for intensity of a TC, storms that intensify & decay unusually fast & vis vera will contribute less (more) total accumulated cyclone energy, a lower Power Dissipation Index (PDI), lower numbers of NS, H, & MH days, have severely (un) limited longevity (lifespans) in a relative sense, and are often accompanied with (particularly when close to landmasses in the western portion of the basin) shorter track lengths, & of course all of the preceding go unaccounted when using the NS, H, & MH counts alone. Take the following for example. I presented this graphic several days ago on this blog, but it's worth noting here that using GCOS, the ENSO indices with the highest overall correlations amongst one another as confirmed by Wolter & Timlin (2011), were not surprisingly, BEST & the MEI.

Amazingly, the MEI.ext (1871-2005) actually explains more variance of the BEST index than with the SOI or it's 20th Century Reanalysis from Ropelewski. This is simply stunning because the SOI is actually one of the two components (along w/ GISST (1870-April 1998) & Reynolds OISST (May 1998-present)) that are used to calculate BEST (Bivariate ENSO Index).
Ah, the power of a multivariate index...


As I hinted at already, without the advent of satellites, drones, & a stronger observational network in general, the counts are likely not a useful index before the satellite era, much less before 1950 when many weaker TCs that stayed harmlessly out to sea &/or weren't intercepted by ships often remained missing & completely removed the historical record. Even though according to James B. Elsner who analyzed annual TC counts in the Atlantic, notes that the highest congregation of activity is actually closer to the US coast (there are likely confounding factors that contribute to this observation if he's relying on a considerable portion of the data before 1950), but this makes some sense given the higher TCHP & underlying SSTs in the western Atlantic, Caribbean, & Gulf of Mexico, when all else is considered equal, more readily promote TC genesis & intensification.

GODAS Mean Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential during the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (September) 1982-2004


Annual Hurricane Counts (variance/mean) via James B. Elsner


He also had an interesting graphic regarding US TC landfalls...


We can also attain a reliable proxy for what Atlantic TC behavior may have been like before 1950 & specifically during the 1933 hurricane season by looking to the reliable record. You can see from Levi's global analysis since 1979, most of the Atlantic hurricane ACE is northwest of the eastern Deep tropical Atlantic (5-20N, 20-60W) & generally closer to North American/Caribbean landmasses further west, but the same can't necessarily be said for TC counts, which actually observes high counts per box east of the Lesser Antilles. Hence, the implied implications of this observed anomaly are the probability is generally higher that some weaker storms in the eastern Atlantic will be completely missed as opposed to completely missing systems where we can capture at least a significant proportion of their total ACE as they approach land & have had a significant amount of time to intensify in doing so. For all intents & purposes, during relatively sparse observational periods, ACE is very likely to be a better measure of overall activity...

TC frequencies (1x1 boxes) via Levi Cowan


TC Hurricane ACE (1x1 boxes) via Levi Cowan


I would probably define an active Atlantic hurricane season as one that exceeds the ACE average in the reliable era (1950-present) ~101.8 pts. I would likely follow the methodology of GoldenBerg et al (2001) (if I decided to go a step further), that used a weighting function to determine "hyperactive" hurricane seasons & proposed that years w/ ACE >/= 153 points were "hyperactive, and accounting this is within striking distance of the standard deviation of hurricane ACE data since 1950 (~59), thus years w/ ACE at or above 155-160 points I would be deem as "hyperactive" years.

#60 - ricderr - ric, can you share the link for that? I recently saw a graphic (map) regarding El Nino & FL & SE US tornadoes, but for the life of me can't recall where. Maybe it's on or linked from the site where you found that great write up.
here you go bon.......Link
Quoting 64. ricderr:

here you go bon.......Link

Thanks! This is the one I was thinking of (got it from your link).



There's one more I've seen, but that was a while back. It compared 1997/98 to another El Nino season (82/83 maybe?) in regards to FL & tornadoes.
Quoting 62. LAbonbon:


(Source)
Quoting 53. Bucsboltsfan:



Totally agree that the dynamics are not even close, but the tornadoes that hit Central Florida that year were really nasty. Not your typical weak Florida tornado.


Not entirely, weather doesn't always obey climatology, or regional difference convention. Even in the midwest, the majority of tornadoes that occur are not high end tornadoes, but weaker ones. It's just that they get a lot more strong tornadoes than Florida in terms of total numbers and frequency by a long shot.

Here are the actual numbers:

FL total strong tornadoes: EF3: 35, EF4: 2, EF5: 0, total number of strong tornadoes: 37

FL total EF2 tornadoes: 317, total number of tornadoes EF2 or stronger: 352.

OK total strong tornadoes: EF3: 190, EF4: 57, EF5: 8, total number of strong tornadoes: 255.

OK total EF2 tornadoes: 669, total number of tornadoes EF2 or stronger: 924.

Link


Now obviously those numbers speak from themselves, Oklahoma sees far more devastating tornadoes than FL, many times as much. However, what you can also see is that while strong tornadoes in FL are rare, they can and do happen. It's just the meteorological conditions for them to occur doesn't happen very often, namely strong dynamics.


It's no different than those people who say that major hurricanes will never strike New York, or that snow can't happen in Florida.


Tornadoes of moderate strength are also fairly common, as you can see by the total number of EF2 tornadoes in Florida at 317, tornadoes of moderate strength are quite common, and such a tornado is still capable of significant damage to many structures.


Also it's worth noting that severe reporting in FL is also a bit skewed, tornado and severe reports in OK are numerous in rural areas and small towns in many cases as much as the cities thanks to that much of it's severe events have anticipation and also are subject to much focus and scrutiny for obvious reasons.

Whereas FL has an obvious issue with a lack of reports outside of major cities, in terms of both tornadoes and severe thunderstorm events, so while OK would still have exceedingly more reports, it's pretty obvious that FL has an issue with under reporting and documentation of severe weather outside of urban centers. I'm sure this is true for some other states in the southeast as well.
quoting

68. Jedkins01

FL total strong tornadoes: EF3: 35, EF4: 2, EF5: 0, total number of strong tornadoes: 35


Not that it matters for the point but something doesn't add up. 35 + 2 = 35?
Jedkins - help me out. I get what the impacts of a strong El Niño can have on Florida. I've been here long than most and have experienced it. My question is - with the jet stream acting very different around the globe (due to climate change) is it possible that the impacts on Florida (and California) could be different than 97/98? Was the devastating rains in Texas and Oklahoma a result of El Niño?
Quoting 45. yonzabam:



But, the polar jet is influencing everything outside the tropics in the northern hemisphere.


Nope, sometimes and especially during El Nino years, the flow splits and the polar jet is displaced to the north with a strong subtropical jet to the south and much of the El Nino wintertime activity along the gulf coast and FL is associated with the subtropical jet.. Scott is right. These distinctions are somewhat semantic but subtropical jet disturbances are wetter since they are closer to the really juicy tropical stuff. In normal years there isn't enough temperature gradient for a lot of these disturbances but El Nino tends to displace the subtopical jet south and pack the isotherms making for higher baroclinic available potential energy for the
disturbances.
Quoting 72. georgevandenberghe:



Nope, sometimes and especially during El Nino years, the flow splits and the polar jet is displaced to the north with a strong subtropical jet to the south and much of the El Nino wintertime activity along the gulf coast and FL is associated with the subtropical jet.. Scott is right. These distinctions are somewhat semantic but subtropical jet disturbances are wetter since they are closer to the really juicy tropical stuff. In normal years there isn't enough temperature gradient for a lot of these disturbances but El Nino tends to displace the subtopical jet south and pack the isotherms making for higher baroclinic available potential energy for the
disturbances.


I know what you are saying about a split flow. The jet is not acting the same. The evidence is very clear. I'm asking if it will split or has climate change changed the game?
Quoting 71. Bucsboltsfan:

Jedkins - help me out. I get what the impacts of a strong El Niño can have on Florida. I've been here long than most and have experienced it. My question is - with the jet stream acting very different around the globe (due to climate change) is it possible that the impacts on Florida (and California) could be different than 97/98? Was the devastating rains in Texas and Oklahoma a result of El Niño?


I'll jump on this. I'm suspecting yes, the rains in the midwest and central South have an El Nino signal behind them. As for climate change, I think it's having order 1/10 effects on the jet compared with the order 1 effect of ENSO so we'll get a recognisable winter response similar to other El Nino years. One huge fly in this year's ointment is positive PDO which will tend to displace the polar jet south over the East, counterning El Nino effects. I'm not ready to assert positive PDO is due to climate change.. it just is happening now but it could spoil my conclusion in sentence 2.

Quoting 73. Bucsboltsfan:



I know what you are saying about a split flow. The jet is not acting the same. The evidence is very clear. I'm asking if it will split or has climate change changed the game?


I think it will split. Strong positive PDO worries me.

Quoting 25. StormTrackerScott:



Looks like a 75 mph to 80 mph hurricane.


you would be quite a bit off on your guesstimate !!

(1) AT 100600Z, TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N
124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 664 NM SOUTH OF YONGSAN AIN, AND HAD TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS GUSTING TO 135
KNOTS.
Quoting 75. georgevandenberghe:



I think it will split. Strong positive PDO worries me.




If it does like in past years then California and Florida are in for an exciting winter. Let's see what happens.
Chan Hom

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2015 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 27:40:19 N Lon : 123:21:55 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

4.6 / 951.5mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 3.8 3.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : -3.4C Cloud Region Temp : -34.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT

Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON


C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 247km
- Environmental MSLP : 998mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.1 degrees

AMSU Intensity Time Series

2020 UTC Image

Wow the blog is busy
Quoting 82. tampabaymatt:



Whats keeping Texas white and when will it change?
Quoting 82. tampabaymatt:




No love for Texas centered under the ridge.
korea might get the worst of chan horn

High pressure
It will be back in drought by the fall
Better question is why is the entire Caribbean basin white during our so called rainy season
I think we need to re write the climatology of our region it's been. Like this for the last couple years
Rain in May and June then not a drop till November for a bit then dry again till may or June
I have palm trees that are dying

Quoting 84. Kenfa03:


Whats keeping Texas white and when will it change?
Quoting 69. JustDucky251:

quoting

68. Jedkins01

FL total strong tornadoes: EF3: 35, EF4: 2, EF5: 0, total number of strong tornadoes: 35


Not that it matters for the point but something doesn't add up. 35 + 2 = 35?




LOL, I guess having had done so much mathematics it's easy to make goofy arithmetic mistakes!


Hello, boys and girls. Very good blog today. Everything was covered evenly, from the typhoons to el nino and the jet stream. Some very good questions and thoughts. Down the line scenarios of the impact of the current el nino and all with polite questions and answers. It is times like this that the blog is enjoyable and informative. Kudos to the blog. (I only have one Kudo left).

You done good!
Quoting 84. Kenfa03:


Whats keeping Texas white and when will it change?
Strong high pressure ridge centered just to the east of Texas. It should shift in about 8-12 days. There's enough moisture that Texas will see some pop-up type thunderstorms, but the GFS isn't good at depicting that kind of rain.
Guys when do you think the GFS will have a hurricane for the Atlantic Ocean. Me I think next month
Quoting 88. Jedkins01:




LOL, I guess having had done so much mathematics it's easy to make goofy arithmetic mistakes!





I saw that but I figured with the math they are teaching you young kids, I figured that somehow it had to be right, butI was afraid to point it out:). Lol
Quoting 89. Grothar:

Hello, boys and girls. Very good blog today. Everything was covered evenly, from the typhoons to el nino and the jet stream. Some very good questions and thoughts. Down the line scenarios of the impact of the current el nino and all with polite questions and answers. It is times like this that the blog is enjoyable and informative. Kudos to the blog. (I only have one Kudo left).

You done good!


Holy mackerel! That's like a rookie being told by Ted Williams that he done good.
Quoting 92. Bucsboltsfan:



I saw that but I figured with the math they are teaching you young kids, I figured that somehow it had to be right, butI was afraid to point it out:). Lol


I'm an old goat. That's why I saw it.
Quoting 71. Bucsboltsfan:

Jedkins - help me out. I get what the impacts of a strong El Niño can have on Florida. I've been here long than most and have experienced it. My question is - with the jet stream acting very different around the globe (due to climate change) is it possible that the impacts on Florida (and California) could be different than 97/98? Was the devastating rains in Texas and Oklahoma a result of El Niño?


Well even if say this El Nino turned out to be identical in terms of SST anomalies and placement of the anomalies to the the 97/98, the weather impacts will still be different. That's the natural reality of weather. I can tell you this though, stronger El Nino events have a much stronger signal in increasing rainfall in CA and FL and severe weather in FL, weaker El Nino's produce less reliable/consistent results.

As far as how climate change impacts El Nino weather impacts? Well, remember that climate change is expected to cause an increase in extreme weather over time, but whether climate change will impact this specific El Nino event is unclear. It's hard to quantify such, and I haven't done any research on how climate change might impact ENSO events.

Being that the climate is changing rapidly, I would naturally assume it impacts ENSO events in some way, but I'm not sure exactly how or if that is the case. Maybe someone else here has done more investigation and research on that.

And as far as the devastating rains in TX and OK being the result of El Nino? I'm sure there is any connection. There might be, but if there is, I haven't heard of any connection between unusually heavy late Spring and early summer rain in the southern plains and El Nino. Again, if anyone else here does know of any of evidence of such, hopefully they'll provide it, because I don't know, but as far as I'm aware, I don't think so.

Quoting 92. Bucsboltsfan:



I saw that but I figured with the math they are teaching you young kids, I figured that somehow it had to be right, butI was afraid to point it out:). Lol



Go ahead and point out math errors. Even in upper level math, a lot of the mistakes are simple errors that anyone could spot...I usually lose the "-" sign when I'm working through a problem, it's far too common.
Quoting 92. Bucsboltsfan:



I saw that but I figured with the math they are teaching you young kids, I figured that somehow it had to be right, butI was afraid to point it out:). Lol



Well, I think it's easy to make easy math mistakes because it doesn't require a whole lot of deep thought lol, plus minor blips and error is part of being human, lol.
Quoting 97. Jedkins01:




Well, I think it's easy to make easy math mistakes because it doesn't require a whole lot of deep thought lol, plus minor blips and error is part of being human, lol.


Way back when I was in school, many decades ago, my biggest problem in Advanced Mathematical Physics was not making a sign error at the beginning of a problem that would negate all the following calculations.
Quoting 98. JustDucky251:



Way back when I was in school, many decades ago, my biggest problem in Advanced Mathematical Physics was not making a sign error at the beginning of a problem that would negate all the following calculations.

Did you use a slide rule? TThe youngsters don;t realize how good they have it now.














Quoting 97. Jedkins01:




Well, I think it's easy to make easy math mistakes because it doesn't require a whole lot of deep thought lol, plus minor blips and error is part of being human, lol.


Jed, just tell us you won't ever work in a Nuclear Power Plant :)
Quoting 95. Jedkins01:



Well even if say this El Nino turned out to be identical in terms of SST anomalies and placement of the anomalies to the the 97/98, the weather impacts will still be different. That's the natural reality of weather. I can tell you this though, stronger El Nino events have a much stronger signal in increasing rainfall in CA and FL and severe weather in FL, weaker El Nino's produce less reliable/consistent results.

As far as how climate change impacts El Nino weather impacts? Well, remember that climate change is expected to cause an increase in extreme weather over time, but whether climate change will impact this specific El Nino event is unclear. It's hard to quantify such, and I haven't done any research on how climate change might impact ENSO events.

Being that the climate is changing rapidly, I would naturally assume it impacts ENSO events in some way, but I'm not sure exactly how or if that is the case. Maybe someone else here has done more investigation and research on that.

And as far as the devastating rains in TX and OK being the result of El Nino? I'm sure there is any connection. There might be, but if there is, I haven't heard of any connection between unusually heavy late Spring and early summer rain in the southern plains and El Nino. Again, if anyone else here does know of any of evidence of such, hopefully they'll provide it, because I don't know, but as far as I'm aware, I don't think so.




I'm asserting (without proof, skeptics take note] that the heavy rains this spring were associated with splitting of the polar and subtropical jets and uncommon strength of the subtropical jet. The strength of the subtropical jet is an El Nino signature. It was surprising to have this much coupling in late spring and if we spun the wheel and took five El Ninos like this one in late spring, several would probably not couple this way and spring in the southern plains would be more normal. Jedkins was probably right to be more equivocal.

The other factor which is just, weather, is that strong troughing over the west and ridging over the east perstisted most of May with the southwest flow between these two features bring up lots of moisture, perhaps enhanced by the subtropical jet. What was notable was that this was an exceptionally persistant pattern all of May and early June. I'm not ready to answer the question why it was so persistant.


Quoting 99. SunnyDaysFla:


Did you use a slide rule? TThe youngsters don;t realize how good they have it now.

















Yes, I used a slide rule, then punched out cards, then punched out paper tape between flipping switches on a PDP 11. First calculator was an HP45. First office computer was an IBM PC with extension box. We had 128K. All other departments were jealous!
Anyone have quick links for real-time water levels/stages in Shanghai?
Quoting 97. Jedkins01:




Well, I think it's easy to make easy math mistakes because it doesn't require a whole lot of deep thought lol, plus minor blips and error is part of being human, lol.


I know what you mean. I do it all the time with my checking account.
Quoting 96. Astrometeor:




Go ahead and point out math errors. Even in upper level math, a lot of the mistakes are simple errors that anyone could spot...I usually lose the "-" sign when I'm working through a problem, it's far too common.


I hope you know I was joking:)
Quoting 102. JustDucky251:



Yes, I used a slide rule, then punched out cards, then punched out paper tape between flipping switches on a PDP 11. First calculator was an HP45. First office computer was an IBM PC with extension box. We had 128K. All other departments were jealous!


LOL, 1970, first year of college, last year to use a slide rule. The Teaching Assistant was all jazzed about the calculator that could add, subtract, multiply and divide. He said that he was going to get one that could do square roots soon.
Climate Change May Impact El Nino Rainfall Patterns



Rainfall in 2081 - 2100 compared to 1986 - 2005. Changes in mean rainfall under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the period 2081-2100 expressed as anomalies with respect to 1986-2005. Hatching indicates regions where the multi-model mean change is less than the natural variability (computed from 20-year averages taken from pre-industrial control experiments). Images generated using http://climexp.knmi.nl/plot_atlas_form.py. Courtesy: NOAA
Quoting 99. SunnyDaysFla:


Did you use a slide rule? TThe youngsters don;t realize how good they have it now.





My older brother got a slide rule for Christmas the first year he came back from college. Parents have a sick humor, he didn't even know what it was...

I wish I was allowed to use my calculator in class, lol.
A show of hands that still have a slide ruler. One for me.
Quoting 108. Grothar:







Could be construed as a study in Red, or Dread.
Its a hairs breath between if this storm is going to be a disaster or the worlds best example of evading the bullet?
Nasty times ahead if El Nino holds up. Link
Quoting 106. Pipejazz:



LOL, 1970, first year of college, last year to use a slide rule. The Teaching Assistant was all jazzed about the calculator that could add, subtract, multiply and divide. He said that he was going to get one that could do square roots soon.



I used the method of bisection to find square roots for physics in fall 1975 on my mother's four op financial calculator. Got a casio with a square root key for Christmas.
Quoting 98. JustDucky251:



Way back when I was in school, many decades ago, my biggest problem in Advanced Mathematical Physics was not making a sign error at the beginning of a problem that would negate all the following calculations.
i

My biggest problem was making these errors :-)
Also conic section arithmetic works much better when you're working with perfect squares. A common error of mine was 9 plus 25=36. It would have been great .if this worked!
(looks at abacus)

hmmmm... maybe I need to upgrade...
Quoting 69. JustDucky251:

quoting

68. Jedkins01

FL total strong tornadoes: EF3: 35, EF4: 2, EF5: 0, total number of strong tornadoes: 35


Not that it matters for the point but something doesn't add up. 35 2 = 35?



Actually a common and classic computer arithmetic deficiency is revealed by the following

real*4 a,b,c

a=1001001001.
b=1
c=a b

if ( c .eq. a) then
C execute insanity protocols. !!!
endif

You will find that c is equal to A when you test for equality because the calculation is only accurate to seven decimal places with 32 bit real arithmetic. Using 64 bit reals would give an answer accurate to about five decimal places (thus avoiding insanity). Many senior scientists are stunned to find this out.


Its really crazy about the sharks this year for NC/SC..

Dolphin bitten by shark washes ashore at Kure Beach

KURE BEACH, NC (WECT) -

A dolphin died after it was injured by a shark and washed ashore on Kure Beach Friday morning.

Dr. Ann Pabst, a professor at UNCW, said the adult male dolphin had a few superficial shark bites. Pabst said one bite to the tail of the dolphin looked rather deep.

According to eyewitness Kelley Gates, the incident occurred around 11:30 a.m., just south of the Kure Beach pier.

UNCW officials got the call a little after 1 p.m.

"We mobilized immediately when we heard it was alive,” Said Dr. Ann Pabst.

Pabst said everyone on the beach helped take care of the animal. Photos show the dolphin was covered with towels and water was brought to him before officials arrived.

The animal died from its injuries and was transported to a lab at UNCW. A necropsy is set for Saturday.

Copyright 2015 WECT. All rights reserved.

Quoting 116. aquak9:

(looks at abacus)

hmmmm... maybe I need to upgrade...

Slide rules were sort of OK but "Log tables were more accurate.
By the time we had figured out how to move the curser line and guess the result the logs would probably have got the edge from the anti-logs.
Then came the first calculator and I remember working out my mothers age in seconds. I was about 22 at the time.
Now we have the built in calculators on the Windows and all sorts of add on's but I don't think people are much better off for it, almost every day somebody asks me how to do a simple times of say 7X9 and they are amazed that I don't have to start up a laptop or pocket calculator, or phone to tell them that the answer is LXIII, as opposed to 1111112 in binary!
Then again I have nothing against evolution; after all we are all a product of it in some way or another?
Quoting 83. 19N81W:

Wow the blog is busy

So last week it was Grothers birthday and the 4th of July, all nearly at the same time.
What's the excuse this week?
Graduate stats had us do multivariate linear regressions by hand before we were allowed to use SPSS so we could better understand what was actually going on with the processes. So much work for just one problem, it does really make you appreciate what is going on behind the scenes of those 9 variable regressions your computer does in just a few seconds.
Let's see.

4:30pm? check.
Wind? check.
Rumbles of thunder? check.
Craving beer? check.

Irritable next door neighbor said with her usual demeanor "MY PILOT LIGHT BLEW OUT! THAT HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE! WE'VE NEVER HAD A STORM HERE WHERE MY PILOT LIGHT BLEW OUT!"

She'll recover, and pick up the shattered pieces of her broken life. She'll move on.
Quoting 119. PlazaRed:


Slide rules were sort of OK but "Log tables were more accurate.
By the time we had figured out how to move the curser line and guess the result the logs would probably have got the edge from the anti-logs.
Then came the first calculator and I remember working out my mothers age in seconds. I was about 22 at the time.
Now we have the built in calculators on the Windows and all sorts of add on's but I don't think people are much better off for it, almost every day somebody asks me how to do a simple times of say 7X9 and they are amazed that I don't have to start up a laptop or pocket calculator, or phone to tell them that the answer is LXIII, as opposed to 1111112 in binary!
Then again I have nothing against evolution; after all we are all a product of it in some way or another?


I'm only 18 and I agree with your last observations.

We would do math competitions in elementary school organized by a local Marine veteran. Those who did the math in their head, even long division were faster than those with calculators. That's also how we did our multiplication tables, 1-12. Fastest person to 100 right in under 3 minutes, wins.

I volunteered to do it without a calculator...guess who got the candy, lol.

----

On topic, weather wise:

Might rain soon...

The China Meteorological Administration

Red Typhoon Warning for Zhejiang
Orange Typhoon Warning for Shanghai
Yellow Typhoon Warnings for Jiangsu
Quoting 117. georgevandenberghe:



Actually a common and classic computer arithmetic deficiency is revealed by the following

real*4 a,b,c

a=1001001001.
b=1
c=a b

if ( c .eq. a) then
C execute insanity protocols. !!!
endif

You will find that c is equal to A when you test for equality because the calculation is only accurate to seven decimal places with 32 bit real arithmetic. Using 64 bit reals would give an answer accurate to about five decimal places. Many senior scientists are stunned to find this out.




Software engineer powers ACTIVATE!

I know what you are trying to demonstrate, but this isn't correct.

The accuracy of a floating point number is approximately equivalent to the log(base 10) of the number of bits used to represent it. For a single precision float, 23 bits are used so the the number of digits of accuracy is:

log10(2^23) = 6.9 (round down to 6)

And for a double precision number which uses 53 bits of precision:

log10(2^53) = 15.9 (round down to 15)

It's actually 24 and 54 bits respectively, but one of the bits isn't explicitly stored so "doesn't count".

The degenerate cases are related to those either at the extremes of their expected ranges or in the cases where the base 10 number cannot be represented concretely in binary form (non-terminating decimals). For example, the number .1 cannot be exactly represented in binary so it is "approximated". This is similar to how 1/9 forms a repeating, non-terminating decimal number in base 10.

The error I see most often in code is doing straight up comparisons between floating point numbers. That's a big no no. When comparing against floating point numbers you always use an "epsilon" to make sure the values are compared correctly. Example:

float a = n1
float b = n2
float epsilon = .00001

if ( abs(n1 - n2) < epsilon) //Here, abs is a function to calculate absolute value
{
//do "equals" logic here
...
}

These sorts of issues happen even when not dealing with floating point numbers. They can happen with integers as well. For example, if your using an unsigned integer (no negative values):

4294967295 1 = 0 //integer overflow

As a software engineer, you have to be aware of issues like this all the time, as even innocent oversights can lead to security holes, random behavior, crashes, etc. They can also be time consuming to track down, especially in numerical code bases (models and simulators, for example).

Software engineer powers, DEACTIVATE!
Quoting 124. HadesGodWyvern:

The China Meteorological Administration

Red Typhoon Warning for Zhejiang
Orange Typhoon Warning for Shanghai
Yellow Typhoon Warnings for Jiangsu

FINALLY!
OK, target zone of the blog; time here at 2.am Europe time.
The Storm of the day is about to start getting interesting, unless you happen to be on one of the numerous islands already in the activity area. In which case you will be a bit tired of high wind and storm surges by now.

Link

So the above is now, relative to the time of the post!

Below is surface wind speeds about 12 hours from now.

Link

Doesn't look too much like an also ran.
Hope that things get a bit quieter over the next few hours.

Meanwhile this blighter is rolling northwards up the east coast causing all sorts of problems.
Quoting 111. marynell:

A show of hands that still have a slide ruler. One for me.

We have the 4' classroom model.
Noting:-

125. Xyrus2000
11:50 PM GMT on July 10, 2015

"As a software engineer, you have to be aware of issues like this all the time, as even innocent oversights can lead to security holes, random behavior, crashes, etc. They can also be time consuming to track down, especially in numerical code bases (models and simulators, for example)."

Then again the average person looking at a photo image beamed back from Pluto may think its actually a Disney Land lost character.
There are almost no people on the planet today who would understand the maths involved in navigating to and obtaining the Pluto image; or in fact the technology involved in the Pluto cartoon image.
We live in a consumer age.
Quoting 118. ncstorm:

Its really crazy about the sharks this year for NC/SC..

Dolphin bitten by shark washes ashore at Kure Beach

KURE BEACH, NC (WECT) -

A dolphin died after it was injured by a shark and washed ashore on Kure Beach Friday morning.

Dr. Ann Pabst, a professor at UNCW, said the adult male dolphin had a few superficial shark bites. Pabst said one bite to the tail of the dolphin looked rather deep.

According to eyewitness Kelley Gates, the incident occurred around 11:30 a.m., just south of the Kure Beach pier.

UNCW officials got the call a little after 1 p.m.

"We mobilized immediately when we heard it was alive,” Said Dr. Ann Pabst.

Pabst said everyone on the beach helped take care of the animal. Photos show the dolphin was covered with towels and water was brought to him before officials arrived.

The animal died from its injuries and was transported to a lab at UNCW. A necropsy is set for Saturday.

Copyright 2015 WECT. All rights reserved.




What's making it happen??

And in all honesty, the first thing my eyes caught while looking at the pic was not the dolphin...
Quoting 130. JrWeathermanFL:



What's making it happen??

And in all honesty, the first thing my eyes caught while looking at the pic was not the dolphin...
Waters are warmer than average off the S.E U.S coast this year.I can think of that as being one reason.
Not trying to doomcast, and I hope everyone prepared more than the media led us to believe, but Chan-hom would have to turn due north right now to miss the coast. Nice view of the dry air intrusion.


I'll be refreshing this all night - thanks Dr M for the link!
Link
Quoting 118. ncstorm:

Its really crazy about the sharks this year for NC/SC..

Dolphin bitten by shark washes ashore at Kure Beach

KURE BEACH, NC (WECT) -

A dolphin died after it was injured by a shark and washed ashore on Kure Beach Friday morning.

Dr. Ann Pabst, a professor at UNCW, said the adult male dolphin had a few superficial shark bites. Pabst said one bite to the tail of the dolphin looked rather deep.

According to eyewitness Kelley Gates, the incident occurred around 11:30 a.m., just south of the Kure Beach pier.

UNCW officials got the call a little after 1 p.m.

"We mobilized immediately when we heard it was alive,” Said Dr. Ann Pabst.

Pabst said everyone on the beach helped take care of the animal. Photos show the dolphin was covered with towels and water was brought to him before officials arrived.

The animal died from its injuries and was transported to a lab at UNCW. A necropsy is set for Saturday.


Just noted a news report about a shark-bump in Huntington Beach, CA (that's SoCal, Orange County, between Newport Beach and Long Beach FYI.) Link
Approaching landfall while the eyewall has opened up.

Loop courtesy of: Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School
Quoting 132. winter123:

Not trying to doomcast, and I hope everyone prepared more than the media led us to believe, but Chan-hom would have to turn due north right now to miss the coast. Nice view of the dry air intrusion.


I'll be refreshing this all night - thanks Dr M for the link!
Link



That image loop is from 1601 UTC ...or 8 hours ago..
Himawari-8 Band 13 (10.4 µm) - Sector 6



Quoting 134. barbamz:

Approaching landfall while the eyewall has opened up.

Loop courtesy of: Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School


IMpressive loop as She Wobbles along N by NNW, still making some westward lopes as well. That main eyewall is just offshore, but driving the water in North of that CoC.
Tropical Storm Halola:

CP, 01, 2015071100, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1726W, 35, 1004, TS

Quoting 111. marynell:

A show of hands that still have a slide ruler. One for me.


I still have a couple of stadia slide rules, a 10" model like this and a 20" model.



I also have one of these left from my father's civil engineering and surveying practice

Quoting 111. marynell:

A show of hands that still have a slide ruler. One for me.


Don't still have one in this house, but I used one back in the day.

CORRECTION: Husband informs me that his is in the attic.
Quoting 138. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tropical Storm Halola:

CP, 01, 2015071100, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1726W, 35, 1004, TS




Aloha.
Quoting 125. Xyrus2000:



Software engineer powers ACTIVATE!

I know what you are trying to demonstrate, but this isn't correct.

The accuracy of a floating point number is approximately equivalent to the log(base 10) of the number of bits used to represent it. For a single precision float, 23 bits are used so the the number of digits of accuracy is:

log10(2^23) = 6.9 (round down to 6)

And for a double precision number which uses 53 bits of precision:

log10(2^53) = 15.9 (round down to 15)

It's actually 24 and 54 bits respectively, but one of the bits isn't explicitly stored so "doesn't count".

The degenerate cases are related to those either at the extremes of their expected ranges or in the cases where the base 10 number cannot be represented concretely in binary form (non-terminating decimals). For example, the number .1 cannot be exactly represented in binary so it is "approximated". This is similar to how 1/9 forms a repeating, non-terminating decimal number in base 10.

The error I see most often in code is doing straight up comparisons between floating point numbers. That's a big no no. When comparing against floating point numbers you always use an "epsilon" to make sure the values are compared correctly. Example:

float a = n1
float b = n2
float epsilon = .00001

if ( abs(n1 - n2) < epsilon) //Here, abs is a function to calculate absolute value
{
//do "equals" logic here
...
}

These sorts of issues happen even when not dealing with floating point numbers. They can happen with integers as well. For example, if your using an unsigned integer (no negative values):

4294967295 1 = 0 //integer overflow

As a software engineer, you have to be aware of issues like this all the time, as even innocent oversights can lead to security holes, random behavior, crashes, etc. They can also be time consuming to track down, especially in numerical code bases (models and simulators, for example).

Software engineer powers, DEACTIVATE!


Most of my users are aware of integer overflows. Incidentally the unix timestamp itself is a 32 bit integer denoting seconds since 1/1/1970 and it will overflow in calendar 2037 or so, the Y2.037K problem

But not to worry.. We still have plenty of time to address it. Yup. no worries, move along..

They have also encountered the inexactness of floating point compares. However I do run into the arithmetic problem I described above from time to time. When it gets to my desk I warn the person that those axioms of algebra they learned in middle school.. don't apply to computer arithmetic with floating point numbers. A common source of inexact answers is summations of groups of numbers and compilers do reorder these in nondeterministic ways. A +B +C is not equal to A +C +B in general on computers. The distributive axiom also is invalid. If you want a sum to reproduce you have to do it in your own or someone else's specially written code optimized for exactness and reproducibility rather than speed.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California Sur is currently producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Conditions appear to
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression will likely
form over the weekend while the low moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 400 miles south-southeast of Acapulco Mexico continue
to become better organized. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for continued development, and this system will
likely become a tropical depression during the next day or two while
it moves generally west-northwestward to northwestward. Interests
along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

maybe both t.d soon
Quoting 123. Astrometeor:



I'm only 18 and I agree with your last observations.

We would do math competitions in elementary school organized by a local Marine veteran. Those who did the math in their head, even long division were faster than those with calculators. That's also how we did our multiplication tables, 1-12. Fastest person to 100 right in under 3 minutes, wins.

I volunteered to do it without a calculator...guess who got the candy, lol.

----

On topic, weather wise:

Might rain soon...




While my kids were learning their multiplication tables (with some griping about so many), they seemed unfazed in remembering the properties of 500 pokemon each of which could exist in any one of three states.

I also don't use a calculator for anything in the tables. I also believe maps beat GPS. and prefer the former for navigation.
Quoting 138. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tropical Storm Halola:

CP, 01, 2015071100, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1726W, 35, 1004, TS




TD one C wins 1st place too be come a TS 1st
Quoting 46. weathermanwannabe:

Respectfully, there is no comparison between the relatively weak Florida tornadoes and the Mid-West tornadoes fueled by the collision of warm Gulf flow with the cooler air from the Rockies coming over the plains; totally different dynamic; even in an El Nino phase.

Respectfully, over 40 people were killed by tornadoes in C FL in one night 1997 or 1998
No word from NHC but something to watch.Link
Quoting 135. Patrap:



That image loop is from 1601 UTC ...or 8 hours ago..

Why is it not updating? I have instead been watching the Himawari satellite link from Dr M. I'm on mobile so I'm using the HTML5 loop. A bit too far south but very detailed and frequent updates. I love how the clouds are interacting with the mountains. The latest frame:
Responding to #139
I still have a slide rule (no longer used) .... 10", Nestler Alpha .... first all plastic one anyone had ever seen (1957 at High School in the UK) .... the central slide is a pale green, so my school friends called it "Spearmint Flavoured".     Being all plastic, I was able scratch various Trig formulae into the back of it to use as a 'crib sheet'.
 One Maths Master had an aluminum slide rule, distinctly curved from pounding it on the front edge of his raised desk whilst shouting "Be still!" to quell any level of unrest –– we always wondered how this curvature might affect the accuracy.

Also used to use one of those hand-cranked multiplier machines ... cost accounting office also in the UK, 1964 .... we have come a long way since then !!
Quoting 147. sanflee76:


Respectfully, over 40 people were killed by tornadoes in C FL in one night 1997 or 1998


Indeed, but Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Alabama have many many more high fatality events and EF4 and EF5 tornadoes.
I've come to a realization today........ I may never be a computer engineer. Googled that, not that hard to get; I'll get back to you with my opinion; eventually. .....:)
Quoting 150. GreatSlaveLake:

Responding to #139
I still have a slide rule (no longer used) .... 10", Nestler Alpha .... first all plastic one anyone had ever seen (1957 at High School in the UK) .... the central slide is a pale green, so my school friends called it "Spearmint Flavoured".     Being all plastic, I was able scratch various Trig formulae into the back of it to use as a 'crib sheet'.
 One Maths Master had an aluminum slide rule, distinctly curved from pounding it on the front edge of his raised desk whilst shouting "Be still!" to quell any level of unrest –– we always wondered how this curvature might affect the accuracy.

Also used to use one of those hand-cranked multiplier machines ... cost accounting office also in the UK, 1964 .... we have come a long way since then !!


Enjoyed your last post, could you explain your handle? Just hope the connotation is not what it seems. Thanks :)
Getting closer for the Atlantic. Need shear to drop. Sal dropping.


Second largest lake in the SW territories. Thank you Google. Sorry, just answered my own question. Keep on keeping on GSL.
Quoting 89. Grothar:

Hello, boys and girls. Very good blog today. Everything was covered evenly, from the typhoons to el nino and the jet stream. Some very good questions and thoughts. Down the line scenarios of the impact of the current el nino and all with polite questions and answers. It is times like this that the blog is enjoyable and informative. Kudos to the blog. (I only have one Kudo left).

You done good!


you can have my kudo (s) or (es) :)
Quoting 121. Naga5000:

Graduate stats had us do multivariate linear regressions by hand before we were allowed to use SPSS so we could better understand what was actually going on with the processes. So much work for just one problem, it does really make you appreciate what is going on behind the scenes of those 9 variable regressions your computer does in just a few seconds.


I had to do those in my meteorological instrumentation course as well by hand for all the appreciation of the work. All I can say is thank God for computers, I like hard math related to physical sciences, it's always interesting. But the continuous repetitive process of statistical techniques by hand to me is more boring than anything else.

Now, using statistical analysis to form conclusions and research is very interesting to me, so I don't hate statistics as a whole by any means, just doing the methods by hand is my bane, lol.
Quoting 151. DeepSeaRising:



Indeed, but Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Alabama have many many more high fatality events and EF4 and EF5 tornadoes.


Of course, comparing the threat of strong, destructive tornadoes in FL to the plains and deep south areas is not even close, but some seem to act as if strong tornadoes can't happen in Florida(isn't true) rather than they can happen, it's just the conditions that are needed for them to occur only happen on rare occasions in Florida, but they have, and will happen again(fact).
Quoting 148. tiggerhurricanes2001:

No word from NHC but something to watch.Link
Your link doesn't work and I couldn't edit it to make it work.
Quoting 157. Jedkins01:



I had to do those in my meteorological instrumentation course as well by hand for all the appreciation of the work. All I can say is thank God for computers, I like hard math related to physical sciences, it's always interesting. But the continuous repetitive process of statistical techniques by hand to me is more boring than anything else.

Now, using statistical analysis to form conclusions and research is very interesting to me, so I don't hate statistics as a whole by any means, just doing the methods by hand is my bane, lol.
Yes, I had to it by hand way back in 1969 but that's because we didn't have much choice. Mainframe time was very limited, and it wasn't going to be used for a two hour run for a bunch of stat students. That's how long it took for a complex multivariate problem. I really thought then, if there was no improvement in computers in the next two years, I was going to change my major to something like English Lit that didn't require hours of repetitive, boring calculations.
Here's a handy tool for argumentation.

https://plus.google.com/u/0/photos/+PeterSmalley/ albums/6169985133820661377 Fallacy Ref calls your fallacy fails.
Quoting 154. unknowncomic:

Getting closer for the Atlantic. Need shear to drop. Sal dropping.





guys nothing is going too happen any time soon in the Atlantic the Atlantic is closed sea tempers are not even 25C for the MDR and with high SAL and high wind shear your not going too see nothing turst me any wave that comes off will go poof my point is its not even worth look at the Atlantic this year has it is closed its not even worth looking at the Caribbean Sea thanks too vary high wind shear so the Caribbean Sea is all so closed this year the olny place if you want too track storms would be the gulf or off the E cost that would be the olny place too look this season


if you really want too track storms or want some in too track the W C and E PAC will be the place too track storms this season if you want too track monster storms
Looks like the models had the northward turn pegged but a little later than forecast. It appears it's going to come ashore in the Shandong province peninsula SW of North Korea. On the the present trajectory, Beijing may get more effects from the storm than originally forecast.

Edit: Time in Beijing as of this post is 1143 hours. I have no idea why this radar doesn't use UTC for time.



Credit: http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu
Quoting 150. GreatSlaveLake:

Responding to #139
I still have a slide rule (no longer used) .... 10", Nestler Alpha .... first all plastic one anyone had ever seen (1957 at High School in the UK) .... the central slide is a pale green, so my school friends called it "Spearmint Flavoured".     Being all plastic, I was able scratch various Trig formulae into the back of it to use as a 'crib sheet'.
 One Maths Master had an aluminum slide rule, distinctly curved from pounding it on the front edge of his raised desk whilst shouting "Be still!" to quell any level of unrest –– we always wondered how this curvature might affect the accuracy.

Also used to use one of those hand-cranked multiplier machines ... cost accounting office also in the UK, 1964 .... we have come a long way since then !!
Hello, and if you don't mind, is your handle representative of your location??
Quoting 159. sar2401:

Your link doesn't work and I couldn't edit it to make it work.

Oops sorry, well anyways GFS, ECMWF,NAVGEM,CMC, all are on board with this scenario. The text is towards the bottom of the screen.Link
Quoting 158. Jedkins01:

Of course, comparing the threat of strong, destructive tornadoes in FL to the plains and deep south areas is not even close, but some seem to act as if strong tornadoes can't happen in Florida(isn't true) rather than they can happen, it's just the conditions that are needed for them to occur only happen on rare occasions in Florida, but they have, and will happen again(fact).
Any place that gets tornadoes can get a strong tornado. Look at what's been happening in Europe as an example. What I find interesting is the different reaction to an F1 tornado in Alabama and Florida. Up here, it's usually something like "Whew! Okay, that wasn't too bad". In Florida, it's more likely to be "OMG! This was terrible!". Nothing against Floridians. It's just the difference between lots of strong tornadoes and those rare damaging tornadoes.
Quoting 165. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Oops sorry, well anyways GFS, ECMWF,NAVGEM,CMC, all are on board with this scenario. The text is towards the bottom of the screen.a href="http:// http://m.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic" target="_blank" onclick="s_objectID="http://%20http//m.accuwe ather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic_1";return this.s_oc?
this.s_oc(e):true" rel="nofollow">Link

Still not working, just visit accuweather Facebook page or tropical weather page.
Quoting 159. sar2401:

Your link doesn't work and I couldn't edit it to make it work.


Best I could do was this: Link Seems he's trying to post off of his phone, judging from his URL.
Quoting 165. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Oops sorry, well anyways GFS, ECMWF,NAVGEM,CMC, all are on board with this scenario. The text is towards the bottom of the screen.Link
It looks like you are trying to link from a mobile site. That doesn't work here. I assume this is the Accuweather page you mean. Yeah, that low has possibilities depending on when it gets off the coast and where. I don't give it more than a 30% chance of becoming anything tropical now but we'll see.
Quoting 168. Astrometeor:



Best I could do was this: Link Seems he's trying to post off of his phone, judging from his URL.
Ooops. We crossposted, but I used the same link as you. As you say, the link is from a mobile site, and this egregious site will screw it up every time.
Quoting 162. Tazmanian:



guys nothing is going too happen any time soon in the Atlantic the Atlantic is closed sea tempers are not even 25C for the MDR and with high SAL and high wind shear your not going too see nothing turst me any wave that comes off will go poof my point is its not even worth look at the Atlantic this year has it is closed its not even worth looking at the Caribbean Sea thanks too vary high wind shear so the Caribbean Sea is all so closed this year the olny place if you want too track storms would be the gulf or off the E cost that would be the olny place too look this season


if you really want too track storms or want some in too track the W C and E PAC will be the place too track storms this season if you want too track monster storms

You're probably right, but we'll see.
It would be unprecedented in the history of man(since 1940 and radar anyway) to go an entire season without at least an invest from a Cape Verde seed. It would certainly throw a wrench in the "more frequent and stronger" hypotheses, not to mention the atmo 2.0(now with 10% added water vapor) school of thoughts....
Quoting 173. CosmicEvents:


You're probably right, but we'll see.
It would be unprecedented in the history of man(since 1940 and radar anyway) to go an entire season without at least an invest from a Cape Verde seed. It would certainly throw a wrench in the "more frequent and stronger" hypotheses, not to mention the atmo 2.0(now with 10% added water vapor) school of thoughts....


but aren't they getting more frequent and stronger ? But not in the Atlantic but in the Pacific theater ...
Quoting 170. sar2401:

Ooops. We crossposted, but I used the same link as you. As you say, the link is from a mobile site, and this egregious site will screw it up every time.


This makes us even from that other cross post we did a week or so ago.
Quoting 90. sar2401:

Strong high pressure ridge centered just to the east of Texas. It should shift in about 8-12 days. There's enough moisture that Texas will see some pop-up type thunderstorms, but the GFS isn't good at depicting that kind of rain.

Thanks. Getting dry in my area.
Quoting 174. whitewabit:



but aren't they getting more frequent and stronger ? But not in the Atlantic but in the Pacific theater ...

They have been in the last few years. Both more frequent and stronger.
Could be the trend. The Pacific of course is a much larger ocean holding more heat. Plus the displaced jetstream patterns flowing from the Arctic may favor this area being "more frequent and stronger". Not in the long-run, but maybe just the next 200 years. Thankfully, the multi-national insurance companies don't have as much risk areas there and they get to collect from other areas, like the GOM, that had their 100 year risk profiles changed.

Quoting 142. georgevandenberghe:



Most of my users are aware of integer overflows. Incidentally the unix timestamp itself is a 32 bit integer denoting seconds since 1/1/1970 and it will overflow in calendar 2037 or so, the Y2.037K problem

But not to worry.. We still have plenty of time to address it. Yup. no worries, move along..

They have also encountered the inexactness of floating point compares. However I do run into the arithmetic problem I described above from time to time. When it gets to my desk I warn the person that those axioms of algebra they learned in middle school.. don't apply to computer arithmetic with floating point numbers. A common source of inexact answers is summations of groups of numbers and compilers do reorder these in nondeterministic ways. A +B +C is not equal to A +C +B in general on computers. The distributive axiom also is invalid. If you want a sum to reproduce you have to do it in your own or someone else's specially written code optimized for exactness and reproducibility rather than speed.




Yep. The next Y2K will be in 2037 when the integer holding the number of milliseconds since 1/1/1970 flips over. You know, someone should really change that to a 64-bit long. It's on the TODO list, and that list is in the TODO basket which gets dumped into recycling every Tuesday.

More irritating is the compilers themselves. Fortran compilers are notorious for not reproducing exactly the same results using even the same code. The differences are usually very slight (distant decimal places), but it's enough to make model validation a real pain. Especially if said model exhibits non-deterministic/chaotic behavior. The whole butterfly flapping it's wings and all that. And you can't just "oh, that's close enough". Any deviation has to be explained since it could potentially be the result of a defect and not simply the compiler trying to be clever.

There are number of factors that can affect how the mathematical operations turn out. Except for bugs though, the differences are usually confined to the distant decimal places. There have been some notorious examples where that hasn't been the case (such as the Pentium division bug). That was a fun day for scientific computing.

Quoting 177. CosmicEvents:


They have been in the last few years. Both more frequent and stronger.
Could be the trend. The Pacific of course is a much larger ocean holding more heat. Plus the displaced jetstream patterns flowing from the Arctic may favor this area being "more frequent and stronger". Not in the long-run, but maybe just the next 200 years. Thankfully, the multi-national insurance companies don't have as much risk areas there and they get to collect from other areas, like the GOM, that had their 100 year risk profiles changed.




The pacific also doesn't have a burning desert dumping increasing amounts of dust into the atmosphere to prevent such storms from forming.

The way the SAL has been the past couple of years I wouldn't be surprised to find a sand bar running from Africa to the Caribbean. :P
Quoting 180. Xyrus2000:



The pacific also doesn't have a burning desert dumping increasing amounts of dust into the atmosphere to prevent such storms from forming.

The way the SAL has been the past couple of years I wouldn't be surprised to find a sand bar running from Africa to the Caribbean. :P

Actually, that scenario might be closer to reality than you think...

NASA Feb. 22, 2015
NASA Satellite Reveals How Much Saharan Dust Feeds Amazon’s Plants

What connects Earth's largest, hottest desert to its largest tropical rain forest?

The Sahara Desert is a near-uninterrupted brown band of sand and scrub across the northern third of Africa. The Amazon rain forest is a dense green mass of humid jungle that covers northeast South America. But after strong winds sweep across the Sahara, a tan cloud rises in the air, stretches between the continents, and ties together the desert and the jungle. It’s dust. And lots of it.

For the first time, a NASA satellite has quantified in three dimensions how much dust makes this trans-Atlantic journey. Scientists have not only measured the volume of dust, they have also calculated how much phosphorus – remnant in Saharan sands from part of the desert’s past as a lake bed – gets carried across the ocean from one of the planet’s most desolate places to one of its most fertile. ...

The rest of the article is here.
While I can't say that I've never wandered around to explore strong winds. I can at least say that I never attempted to ride a bicycle in them...

China evacuates over 800,000 for Chan-hom
I'm thankful that we had Ana and Bill. Back in 2009, we didn't have Ana and Bill until Mid August so I'm grateful. :)
The time here in Europe is 9.30 am.
The Time in shanghai is 3.30 pm.

Below is a link to the projected wind map for 9 hours from now, or about 12.30 am their time, just after midnight.
Although the winds have dropped in intensity they seem to be still about 80+KPH or 50+ MPH in the Shanghai area.
What is probably going to be the major problem is the length of time the storm surge will be pushed into the Shanghai area coastline.

Link

Most likely to be 05 and 06E now.
Chan-hom has been stationary just to the south of Hangzhou Bay for nearly 6 hours. It's right over lots of islands that appear HUGELY populated, such as Zhoushan. I'd be surprised if things aren't a real mess there now.
Track forecasts for Chan-hom:
JMA


JTWC


KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration)


Model guidance (please feel free to post a link if there is a better one)
What an impressive MEI update. This El-Nino is already in an exclusive club and this event is just beginning. Kinda freakish to think where this is going.

The updated (May-June) MEI has risen by 0.49 standard deviations in one month to +2.06, to reach the 3rd highest ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold possible (upper 10%ile). This is also the highest MEI value in more than 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by more than 0.5 standard deviations. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for five months in a row, and above the strong threshold for three months running. Thus, it has become the first El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile.

Looking at the nearest 8 rankings (+2/-6) in this season, and excluding cases with declining May-June values compared to earlier in the year gives us five 'analogues' to ponder: 1972, 1987, 1991, 1993, and 1997. All five of them attained strong El Niño status for at least three months, while 1997-98 is generally classified as a 'Super El Niño', with MEI values reaching +3 standard deviations (the only other Super El Niño of the last century occurred in 1982-83). At this point, El Niño conditions are guaranteed to persist into the upcoming boreal winter season, most likely at strong levels. If the MEI continues to rise for another month or two, even a Super El Niño is in the cards.

Positive SST anomalies continue to grow over the equatorial Pacific, all the way from west of the dateline to the South American coast, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. This includes anomalies well in excess of +3C near Galapagos

Quoting 166. sar2401:

Any place that gets tornadoes can get a strong tornado. Look at what's been happening in Europe as an example. What I find interesting is the different reaction to an F1 tornado in Alabama and Florida. Up here, it's usually something like "Whew! Okay, that wasn't too bad". In Florida, it's more likely to be "OMG! This was terrible!". Nothing against Floridians. It's just the difference between lots of strong tornadoes and those rare damaging tornadoes.
Just like a Floridian rarely blinks as almost daily thunderstorms with 1 strike per second lightning rates passes overhead in the summer, other people would be shaking in their boots 😎


00z GFS
Quoting 154. unknowncomic:

Getting closer for the Atlantic. Need shear to drop. Sal dropping.



GFS shows nothing by the end of july. climatology will eventually reduce some shear in august but having the SAL stay low and having the MDR warm up a bit could mean some activity down the road in August.
Something to keep watch on.
GFS has a max of over 20" of rain off NE FL the next 2 weeks. May need to watch for another tropical system trying to form at the end of July of the SE Coast. Remember what I said earlier most if not all development will be close to the US this year.


The area the low pressure is going to come off late tonight into tomorrow is favorable.
Morning all.


x

No need to guess what the wx will be like over Nassau today ... and I have PLANS ...
Quoting 71. Bucsboltsfan:

Jedkins - help me out. I get what the impacts of a strong El Niño can have on Florida. I've been here long than most and have experienced it. My question is - with the jet stream acting very different around the globe (due to climate change) is it possible that the impacts on Florida (and California) could be different than 97/98? Was the devastating rains in Texas and Oklahoma a result of El Niño?
Quoting 73. Bucsboltsfan:
Why is this so called unusual Jet Stream caused by climate change?


I know what you are saying about a split flow. The jet is not acting the same. The evidence is very clear. I'm asking if it will split or has climate change changed the game?
Quoting 198. BahaHurican:


No need to guess what the wx will be like over Nassau today ... and I have PLANS ...
Just thought about this being the source of the system potentially forming later this month ....
Earth heading for a mini ice age within 15 years

Incredible that this gets on to the front page of the UK Telegraph. The depths of scientific illiteracy are plumbed with the statement that solar output 'will decline by 60%'. Of course, this means that the oceans will freeze solid and all life on Earth will cease to exist. Still, in the short time we have left, we can stop fretting about global warming. Every cloud etc.

Link
Quoting 87. 19N81W:


High pressure
It will be back in drought by the fall
Better question is why is the entire Caribbean basin white during our so called rainy season
I think we need to re write the climatology of our region it's been. Like this for the last couple years
Rain in May and June then not a drop till November for a bit then dry again till may or June
I have palm trees that are dying


A couple years, does not make a pattern change.
TD at 8 AM PDT for system close to Mexican coast.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California Sur is moving north-northwestward at
about 10 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show
signs of organization, and conditions are expected to be conducive
for the development of a tropical depression during tonight
or Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with a low pressure system located about 300 miles south-southeast
of Acapulco, Mexico have become better organized and a tropical
depression appears to be forming. If the current trend continues,
advisories will be initiated on this system later this morning.
Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi
Quoting 198. BahaHurican:


No need to guess what the wx will be like over Nassau today ... and I have PLANS ...
Just thought about this being the source of the system potentially forming later this month ....

The rain just started ...:-(
Quoting 194. StormTrackerScott:

GFS has a max of over 20" of rain off NE FL the next 2 weeks. May need to watch for another tropical system trying to form at the end of July of the SE Coast. Remember what I said earlier most if not all development will be close to the US this year.



something needs to happen. the heat and lack of rain here just east of tampa is frustrating and the plants are not liking it much either. seems we no longer have those "regular" afternoon showers that seemed to cover a lot more area like years past. its very scattered and usually I75 east. the spots that get it really get it but when its so hot and showers so scattered just doesnt seem like the rainy seasons of years past and thats been the way a few years now.
Quoting 162. Tazmanian:



guys nothing is going too happen any time soon in the Atlantic the Atlantic is closed sea tempers are not even 25C for the MDR and with high SAL and high wind shear your not going too see nothing turst me any wave that comes off will go poof my point is its not even worth look at the Atlantic this year has it is closed its not even worth looking at the Caribbean Sea thanks too vary high wind shear so the Caribbean Sea is all so closed this year the olny place if you want too track storms would be the gulf or off the E cost that would be the olny place too look this season


if you really want too track storms or want some in too track the W C and E PAC will be the place too track storms this season if you want too track monster storms
Quoting 174. whitewabit:



but aren't they getting more frequent and stronger ? But not in the Atlantic but in the Pacific theater ...
Driest hottest summer I've ever seen in SE Florida.....wow it's hot and we get no relief from any cloud cover or spotty thunderstorms....El Nino related ?? Climate Change ?? Chinese Stock Market crash ?? who knows why ?? hopefully it'll rain soon....please bring it....
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago
Euro with day 10 non tropical origin cyclone off east coast, typical tho of type of development this year

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 13m13 minutes ago
@BigJoeBastardi the MDR of 2015 :)
2 enhanced risks in a row.... one on sunday and one on monday, though the latter's on my 21st birthday. Storms or beer? Everyone so far said storms lol.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #69
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NANGKA (1511)
21:00 PM JST July 11 2015
==========================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Nangka (950 hPa) located at 18.4N 139.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
240 NM from the center in south quadrant
210 NM from the center in north quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 18.9N 138.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 21.2N 138.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 24.4N 137.4E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #93
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (1509)
21:00 PM JST July 11 2015
==========================
about 170 KM Southeast Of Shanghai (China)

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Chan-Hom (965 hPa) located at 30.3N 122.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
375 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
270 NM from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 36.0N 124.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Yellow Sea
48 HRS: 39.6N 126.9E - Extratropical Low Overland Korean Peninsula
Sorry I haven't been on latley, I've been very busy. Anyway hows it going?
Quoting 179. Xyrus2000:



Yep. The next Y2K will be in 2037 when the integer holding the number of milliseconds since 1/1/1970 flips over. You know, someone should really change that to a 64-bit long. It's on the TODO list, and that list is in the TODO basket which gets dumped into recycling every Tuesday.

More irritating is the compilers themselves. Fortran compilers are notorious for not reproducing exactly the same results using even the same code. The differences are usually very slight (distant decimal places), but it's enough to make model validation a real pain. Especially if said model exhibits non-deterministic/chaotic behavior. The whole butterfly flapping it's wings and all that. And you can't just "oh, that's close enough". Any deviation has to be explained since it could potentially be the result of a defect and not simply the compiler trying to be clever.

There are number of factors that can affect how the mathematical operations turn out. Except for bugs though, the differences are usually confined to the distant decimal places. There have been some notorious examples where that hasn't been the case (such as the Pentium division bug). That was a fun day for scientific computing.




Its seconds. Otherwise.. yep.

Most reproducibility issues come from nondeterministic ordering of calculations creating race conditions for when an operand is used. You are right also that this is scientifically okay in a weather model but makes validation of correctness of a change MUCH more difficult. So we insist on exact reproducibility. That makes debugging MUCH easier. The Intel compiler (NCEP uses Intel "Sandybridge" chips) has options that disable calculation reordering.. (-fp-model strict)
(that was the one with the POWER3/4/5/6/ xlf compiler also). The performance penalty using this is a few percent.

The MPI-1 (and followups) standard also encourages performance over reproducibiltity and reduction order in particular is likely to change from run to run. When users ask me how to fix this (besides getting on the standards committee) I tell them to either

1. Do reductions in quad precision and copy results to the precision of the rest of the model.
2. Normalize, do reductions in integer (guaranteed exact) and convert back to real and denormalize.
3. Write your own MPI reductions (that's easier than you think BTW)

Most users choose option 1. Fortunately with our implementation, reduction order is guaranteed if the decomposition doesn't change.
Quoting 201. yonzabam:

Earth heading for a mini ice age within 15 years

Incredible that this gets on to the front page of the UK Telegraph. The depths of scientific illiteracy are plumbed with the statement that solar output 'will decline by 60%'. Of course, this means that the oceans will freeze solid and all life on Earth will cease to exist. Still, in the short time we have left, we can stop fretting about global warming. Every cloud etc.

Link


Wow. And there are people who read garbage like that and actually believe it.

A 60% reduction in solar output wouldn't be a "mini-ice age". It would be a catastrophic extinction event not seen since the Permian-Triassic extinction that nearly wiped out all life on Earth. Even the tropics would freeze. Worse, a drop of that magnitude would also indicate the collapse of stellar fusion in the core. So it wouldn't be a mini anything. It would be the death knell for life as we know it on Earth.

But the author of that trash did get one thing right. We wouldn't have to worry about global warming anymore. :P
One of my rules of thumb (acronym ROT from John Dutton, a PSU professor of mine)
is that severe weather season for the Mid Atlantic pretty much ends until September
as of July 10.

Well happy today! Frequency does drop off sharply about this time of year as we lose dynamics
and fronts start having trouble getting here as anything more than windshifts and 1C dewpoint drops. Second
season begins last week in August through October.

Yeah gross oversimplification esp.. this year when it looks like we'll still have westerlies but the rule holds a surprising fraction of summers
Quoting 214. georgevandenberghe:

One of my rules of thumb (acronym ROT from John Dutton, a PSU professor of mine)
is that severe weather season for the Mid Atlantic pretty much ends until September
as of July 10.

Well happy today! Frequency does drop off sharply about this time of year as we lose dynamics
and fronts start having trouble getting here as anything more than windshifts and 1C dewpoint drops. Second
season begins last week in August through October.

Yeah gross oversimplification esp.. this year when it looks like we'll still have westerlies but the rule holds a surprising fraction of summers
5 more months til the Winter Fun begins!
Quoting 205. intampa:

something needs to happen. the heat and lack of rain here just east of tampa is frustrating and the plants are not liking it much either. seems we no longer have those "regular" afternoon showers that seemed to cover a lot more area like years past. its very scattered and usually I75 east. the spots that get it really get it but when its so hot and showers so scattered just doesnt seem like the rainy seasons of years past and thats been the way a few years now.


I remember both summers I spent in Tallahassee were hot and soggy (after dry springs and followed by dry falls). It would have been interesting to try to grow things there last year when they had their driest JJA of record with only a few inches each summer month.

Quoting 215. Climate175:

5 more months til the Winter Fun begins!


Remembering the Veterans day 1987 snow dump... Four more months!
Quoting 217. georgevandenberghe:



Remembering the Veterans day 1987 snow dump... Four more months!
Even better! It can sometimes even snow in October, even though it's rare. We usually get the first snow flurries around in mid-late November.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2015 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 30:30:57 N Lon : 122:52:29 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

3.5 / 973.2mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.6 2.1

Center Temp : -12.4C Cloud Region Temp : -26.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.52 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 29:54:35 N Lon: 122:52:12 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr

Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 160km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.9 degrees
Good Morning everyone..beautiful morning here in eastern NC

Quoting 212. georgevandenberghe:



Its seconds. Otherwise.. yep.

Most reproducibility issues come from nondeterministic ordering of calculations creating race conditions for when an operand is used. You are right also that this is scientifically okay in a weather model but makes validation of correctness of a change MUCH more difficult. So we insist on exact reproducibility. That makes debugging MUCH easier. The Intel compiler (NCEP uses Intel "Sandybridge" chips) has options that disable calculation reordering.. (-fp-model strict)
(that was the one with the POWER3/4/5/6/ xlf compiler also). The performance penalty using this is a few percent.

The MPI-1 (and followups) standard also encourages performance over reproducibiltity and reduction order in particular is likely to change from run to run. When users ask me how to fix this (besides getting on the standards committee) I tell them to either

1. Do reductions in quad precision and copy results to the precision of the rest of the model.
2. Normalize, do reductions in integer (guaranteed exact) and convert back to real and denormalize.
3. Write your own MPI reductions (that's easier than you think BTW)

Most users choose option 1. Fortunately with our implementation, reduction order is guaranteed if the decomposition doesn't change.



Correct, seconds. That's what I get for posting late at night. :D

The same issues occur with climate models. Actually with climate models it's even worse as they're typically run for months at a time so those tiny deviations accumulate.
anyone see the 00z Euro..not sure if tropical or not



Aww Teddy..you beat me to it..LOL
model failure again they had chan horn well inland. hope same thing like this does not happen to us again in e. cen fl.
Quoting 222. Xyrus2000:



Correct, seconds. That's what I get for posting late at night. :D

The same issues occur with climate models. Actually with climate models it's even worse as they're typically run for months at a time so those tiny deviations accumulate.


Some years ago I took the GFS 64 bit initial conditions, truncated to 32 bit (it supports both forms of input) and did two low resolution runs with the different
IC. You couldn't see the difference with the naked eye on charts for about five days. By 20 days, the two forecasts could not be recognized as coming from the same initial time. The GFS does most of its calculations with 64 bit real and complex numbers.
Quoting 219. Climate175:

Even better! It can sometimes even snow in October, even though it's rare. We usually get the first snow flurries around in mid-late November.


I've never had to deal with disrupting or crippling snow in October. The Veterans day storm stopped me a mile from home. I didn't want to deal with the final 5% hill down into my apartment complex so I just gave up, buried the car
in a drift off the road and walked the rest of the way. I dug out the next morning.
Quoting 226. ncstorm:

Aww Teddy..you beat me to it..LOL


But to answer your question, it appears to be a fully tropical moderate tropical storm.
Now hopefully future Claudette stays off shore...Its to early for a storm to be running up the coast.But then again it has been unusually wet around here lately and that seems to attract T.C's.
Quoting 169. sar2401:

It looks like you are trying to link from a mobile site. That doesn't work here. I assume this is the Accuweather page you mean. Yeah, that low has possibilities depending on when it gets off the coast and where. I don't give it more than a 30% chance of becoming anything tropical now but we'll see.


It looks like the tropical waves are finally getting to the Antilles. Up until now that have been turned back before getting there. The season may be getting ready for action.
About 9 pm local time now in the Shanghai area.
They have probably been experiencing 24 hours of really bad weather by now including at least 2 high tides.
according to the Internet media about a million people have been evacuated but where too is not quite clear, this might mean they have been moved across the road or into a higher apartment in their blocks.

So far there seems to be very little real news even on here, so I suppose that speculation will rule the day, or the night as the case may be.

35/C in Spain at the moment. The weather team says that we might cool off a bit in a week or so. Meanwhile they have come up with a new "chart," which shows that the waves of heat which we always experience during the summer here have lengthened quite considerably from a few days last "centaury," to levels of up to 18 days in the last 15 years.
Sort of interesting and I'm sure worth a bit more study. The recent Texas heat wave was very long and there are probably a lot more out there waiting to be noted.
This could be a symptom of climate change and heating of certain areas exemplified by much longer heat waves, plus new long term high heat waves in areas not previously affected by them.
Quoting 202. NativeSun:

A couple years, does not make a pattern change.


When I moved down to Mobile from Boston in '02, everything was brown. There had been little rain for several years and it showed. The vegetation was brown and dying and the soil was hard as a rock. It stayed that way for another year. Then WHAM the rains came and everything turned green. Now it is so green that it is difficult to remember the brown. These things cycle. Just wait.
Quoting 234. PlazaRed:

About 9 pm local time now in the Shanghai area.
They have probably been experiencing 24 hours of really bad weather by now including at least 2 high tides.
according to the Internet media about a million people have been evacuated but where too is not quite clear, this might mean they have been moved across the road or into a higher apartment in their blocks.

So far there seems to be very little real news even on here, so I suppose that speculation will rule the day, or the night as the case may be.

35/C in Spain at the moment. The weather team says that we might cool off a bit in a week or so. Meanwhile they have come up with a new "chart," which shows that the waves of heat which we always experience during the summer here have lengthened quite considerably from a few days last "centaury," to levels of up to 18 days in the last 15 years.
Sort of interesting and I'm sure worth a bit more study. The recent Texas heat wave was very long and there are probably a lot more out there waiting to be noted.
This could be a symptom of climate change and heating of certain areas exemplified by much longer heat waves, plus new long term high heat waves in areas not previously affected by them.


Local Shanghai weather report is saying 73 degrees with the wind from the NNW at 18 .. and Rain
237. etxwx
Quoting 201. yonzabam:

Earth heading for a mini ice age within 15 years

Incredible that this gets on to the front page of the UK Telegraph. The depths of scientific illiteracy are plumbed with the statement that solar output 'will decline by 60%'. Of course, this means that the oceans will freeze solid and all life on Earth will cease to exist. Still, in the short time we have left, we can stop fretting about global warming. Every cloud etc.

Link


Prof Valentina Zharkova's research was presented at the National Astronomy Meeting 2015 in Llandudno, North Wales and is also being reported on
ScienceDaily: Solar activity predicted to fall 60% in 2030s, to 'mini ice age' levels: Sun driven by double dynamo
and
Physics.org: Irregular heartbeat of the Sun driven by double dynamo

It will be interesting to follow up on the reception of this.
Quoting 237. etxwx:



Prof Valentina Zharkova's research was presented at the National Astronomy Meeting 2015 in Llandudno, North Wales and is also being reported on
ScienceDaily: Solar activity predicted to fall 60% in 2030s, to 'mini ice age' levels: Sun driven by double dynamo
and
Physics.org: Irregular heartbeat of the Sun driven by double dynamo

It will be interesting to follow up on the reception of this.



Let us heartily hope that the Professor's calcs are wrong.
Quoting 233. Climate175:



Remember Alberto? Was a blog that morning and went on to be a 60mph storm tat afternoon xD.
Quoting 239. washingtonian115:


Remember Alberto? Was a blog that morning and went on to be a 60mph storm tat afternoon xD.
Yep LOL, we may be looking at the same scenario, it may go from blob to tropical storm real quick!


Solved? How scientists say mystery craters were formed in northern Siberia

A new expedition to the craters in Yamal, in northern Russia, shows how they have rapidly altered since they were first noticed last year, but also indicates the possibility that not all the craters were formed in identical ways. The holes – first noticed last year – intrigued and perplexed scientists from around the world, initially provoking a number of explanations as to their cause, the most outlandish of which was that they were caused by stray missiles or even aliens from outer space.

Now the experts say the formation is something ‘never observed’ before, linked to warm weather in recent years. New pictures from the expedition are shown here, showing how one of the holes has rapidly filled with water in recent months.


Link

HEAT ADVISORY
Issue Date: 224 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
Expiration: 800 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...

ALZ067-069-FLZ011-013-015>017-026-027-115-127-GAZ 120>125-142>145-
155>157-120000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HT.Y.0003.150711T1500Z-150712T0000Z/
HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-CALHOUN-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL WAKULLA-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-EARLY-MILLER-BAKE R-MITCHELL-
SEMINOLE-DECATUR-GRADY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...TAYLOR...
ASHFORD...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB...COTTONWOOD... REHOBETH...
MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...BLOUNTS TOWN...
APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHE E...
TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...SWEETWATER...SOPCHOPPY...ST. MARKS...
GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...
MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON...ALBANY...DOUGL ASVILLE...
BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM... DONALSONVILLE...
BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO
224 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 /124 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015/



...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS
MORNING TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS
MORNING TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURE...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO MID
90S NEAR THE COAST.

* HEAT INDEX...UP TO 109 OR 110 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS. IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN POSSIBLE...
RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR EVENING. KNOW
THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. HEAT
STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1.



buildup of convection near the s. bahamas and hispanola hopefully puerto rico gets a bit too
Quoting 238. JustDucky251:



Let us heartily hope that the Professor's calcs are wrong.

Don't worry there, He is completely WRONG.

Imagine the Solar output reduce by 60%.

Think what would happen.

And how does one "throttle down by 60%" a Fusion fueled Yellow Star on Main Sequence ?


The mainstream astronomy is surprisingly persistent in its ignorance of explanation, what drives the Solar dynamo - the changes of barycenter location of Solar system with massive planets. It just looks like another taboo of mainstream physics for me. Its ignorance is the more surprising, as this explanation doesn't threat the established physical theories very much - with the only honor exception: the Arrhenius model of global warming. And this is IMO the rub of this ignorance: the NASA, which is motivated to solar research the most is also engaged in anthropocentric global warming model


That is Lunacy.
Nangka:



Currently under moderate-high shear on its northwestern quadrant which seems to be driving dry air into the system and impeding re-strengthening. Shear is expected to decrease over the next couple days and both the GFS & Euro have the storm becoming a category 5 and landfalling in mainland Japan as a major:







A nice long radar loop of the Typhoon's approach and now exit to the NNE as forecasted.

The angle of impact was the best one for a smaller surge as the Storm only sideswiped the Coastal areas at a oblique angle, rather than a straightforward impact.


Quoting 134. barbamz:

Approaching landfall while the eyewall has opened up.

Loop courtesy of: Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 237. etxwx:



Prof Valentina Zharkova's research was presented at the National Astronomy Meeting 2015 in Llandudno, North Wales and is also being reported on
ScienceDaily: Solar activity predicted to fall 60% in 2030s, to 'mini ice age' levels: Sun driven by double dynamo
and
Physics.org: Irregular heartbeat of the Sun driven by double dynamo

It will be interesting to follow up on the reception of this.



It'll be no big deal, except with the denier fringe who will misinterpret the study.

A major point of cofusion is that solar activity means sunspot activity, not solar energy output.
In light of this Dr. Zharkova predicts sunspot activity similar to the Maunder minimum. A similar prediction was made at a 2014 meting of During a meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society.

Dr. Georg Feulner of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research wrote a response at RealClimate.

An analysis of historic sunspot observations shows that the 11-year solar activity cycle was interrupted during the late 17th century.
This period of time, during which the Sun appeared without sunspots most of the time, was called the Maunder Minimum by Jack Eddy in his famous Science paper. (Alliteratively named after Edward Maunder, although it was actually first discovered by Gustav Spörer.)


Figure 3: Observations of the number of sunspots over the last four centuries. Source: Wikimedia Commons/Global Warming Art.

...It remains to be seen whether this prognosis turns out to be true (there have been some doubts expressed), but since grand minima of solar activity did occur in the past, it is certainly interesting to explore what effects such a minimum might have on 21st century climate if it did occur. This is precisely the question Stefan Rahmstorf and I investigated in a study published last year (see also our press release. (Earlier estimates for the size of this effect can be found here and here.) In our study we find that a new Maunder Minimum would lead to a cooling of 0.3°C in the year 2100 at most – relative to an expected anthropogenic warming of around 4°C. (The amount of warming in the 21st century depends on assumptions about future emissions, of course).



Figure 4: Rise of global temperature (relative to 1961-1990) until the year 2100 for two different emission scenarios (A1B, red, and A2, magenta). The dashed lines show the slightly reduced warming in case a Maunder-like solar minimum should occur during the 21st century. Source: PIK.

According to these results, a 21st-century Maunder Minimum would only slightly diminish future warming. Moreover, it would be only a temporary effect since all known grand solar minima have only lasted for a few decades.


So I can dig out my ClimateCrocks video from 2014.(Warning: video starts with very disturbing image.)
Quoting 245. Patrap:


Don't worry there, He is completely WRONG.

Imagine the Solar output reduce by 60%.

Think what would happen.

And how does one "throttle down by 60%" a Fusion fueled Yellow Star on Main Sequence ?


The mainstream astronomy is surprisingly persistent in its ignorance of explanation, what drives the Solar dynamo - the changes of barycenter location of Solar system with massive planets. It just looks like another taboo of mainstream physics for me. Its ignorance is the more surprising, as this explanation doesn't threat the established physical theories very much - with the only honor exception: the Arrhenius model of global warming. And this is IMO the rub of this ignorance: the NASA, which is motivated to solar research the most is also engaged in anthropocentric global warming model


That is Lunacy.
Quoting 201. yonzabam:

Earth heading for a mini ice age within 15 years

Incredible that this gets on to the front page of the UK Telegraph. The depths of scientific illiteracy are plumbed with the statement that solar output 'will decline by 60%'. Of course, this means that the oceans will freeze solid and all life on Earth will cease to exist. Still, in the short time we have left, we can stop fretting about global warming. Every cloud etc.

Link


From the R.A.S. site the paper is a bit different. I believe what they are saying is that the variability of the sun over its normal 11 year cycle will be reduced, not the overall output of the sun.

Link