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TD 4-E Little Threat to Hawaii; Switzerland has its 2nd Warmest Temperature on Record

By: Jeff Masters 4:05 PM GMT on July 08, 2015

Tropical Depression Four-E spun into life Tuesday night in the waters about 1000 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, and is headed northwest at 16 mph on a path that should keep the center of the storm about 200 miles to the northeast of the islands at the time of closest approach on Saturday. Satellite loops show an unimpressive storm, with heavy thunderstorm activity not is not particularly intense or well-organized. Wind shear is moderately high, near 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are marginal, near 26°C. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would steadily rise over the next few days, and ocean temperatures would stay cool, near 26°C. These conditions should prevent much intensification of TD 4-E. Given its current state of organization, it is questionable whether or not this system can become a tropical storm. One of our two most reliable track models, the GFS model, shows TD 4-E dissipating by Friday before the storm reaches Hawaii, and I give a 70% chance that TD 4-E will be dead by Saturday.


Figure 1. Typhoon Chan-hom as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA'a Aqua satellite at 8:25 pm EDT Tuesday, July 7, 2015. At time time, Chan-hom was a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Chan-hom a dangerous storm for China
Category 2 Typhoon Chan-hom is headed west-northwest at 12 mph towards China, and promises to be a dangerous and very expensive typhoon for a portion of the country unused to strong typhoons. Chan-hom will be steered by a strong ridge of high pressure towards the west-northwest through Thursday night (U.S. EDT), when the typhoon will pass between Japan's Miyakojima and Okinawa islands. Wind shear will be moderate and ocean heat content will be high until just after the storm passes these islands, so intensification into a Category 4 storm by Thursday night is expected. On Friday, as Chan-hom approaches China, ocean heat content will fall and wind shear is expected to rise, which should cause weakening. Chan-hom is likely to make landfall in Mainland China north of Taiwan on Saturday morning (U.S. EDT.) However, the landfall location in China is quite uncertain, as a strong trough of low pressure is expected to turn the typhoon northwards as the center nears the coast on Friday. As Chan-hom curves to the north and weakens, due to interaction with land, the storm is expected to pass very close to Shanghai as a very large and very wet tropical storm. Significant coastal flooding and flooding due to heavy rain is possible in Shanghai, which is China's most populous city (14 million people.)

Elsewhere in the tropics
Category 4 Typhoon Nangka is expected to pass through a sparsely populated portion of the Northern Mariana Islands on Thursday. Nangka could threaten Japan 8 - 10 days from now as a weaker storm. Tropical Storm Linfa hit the Philippines' northern island of Luzon over the weekend, and is expected to make landfall in China on Thursday as a tropical storm. The Atlantic remains quiet, and is dominated by high wind shear and stable dry air. None of our reliable genesis models are showing tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next five days.


Figure 2. People re-fill bottles of water at a fountain in front of Rome's Pantheon, Wednesday, July 8, 2015, during Europe's record heat wave. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini)

Switzerland has its highest reliably measured temperature on record
It was another day for the record books on Tuesday as Europe's intense heat wave broke scores of all-time heat records at cities in Spain, Switzerland, France, and Italy. Geneva, Switzerland hit 103.5°F (39.7°C), smashing its old historical record of 102.0°F (38.9°C) set almost a century ago, in July 1921. The only higher temperature ever measured in the country was a 106.7°F (41.5°C) reading on August 11, 2003 at Grono. As reported at the Swiss news site swissinfo.ch, this was recorded "using an old measurement technique of weather huts, which generally recorded temperatures a few degrees higher than modern instruments." Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera agrees that yesterday's 39.7°C reading in Geneva is the highest reliably measured temperature ever in Switzerland, though the August 11, 2003 temperature at Grono was probably warmer (near 40°C), after correcting for the known problems with the site. Although Tuesday does not hold the official record for hottest day in Swiss history, it was their hottest July day, and they have joined five other nations that have set all-time July national heat records this month: Germany, the Netherlands, the U.K., Thailand, and Colombia. The European heat wave continues, with more all-time heat records at risk across Southeast Europe on Wednesday, and possibly on Thursday. The heat wave will finally die down by Friday, ending a remarkable 9-day span.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Typhoon Chan-hom a dangerous storm for China

now if someone could warn the chinese national press about this......they have it ranked as condition yellow right now
Thanks Dr. Masters. Still believe that Claudette will develop before August though.
Thanks Dr. As posted earlier (from West to East); Linfa, Chan-Hom, and Nangka:

Tornado ongoing near Venice, Italy



Just want to reiterate not to think of a season as "bust" until it's over. 1965 was a -AMO year, a -NAO year and had a strong - almost very strong- El Nino develop. So conditions were very hostile to TC formation that year and in total only 6 tropical cyclones developed. However, one of those that formed on August 27th, became the costliest hurricane on record at the time and devastated parts of the US. That was hurricane Betsy (also known as Billion Dollar Betsy):





And here is the current forecast track for Chan-Hom; very close call for Shanghai and subject to the coastal surge issue into the Port as you noted yesterday due to the cyclonic circulation pushing water in.  Also noting the potential impacts to Kedena and Taipe on the way in towards the mainland if this tract verifies.

I will note that that is one "sharp" turn that is forecast.......................................... ...........

Thanks Dr Masters...........meanwhile in Soo Cal temps expected to be 10-20 degrees below normal the next few days as a decent ULL moves into central California coast and heads east.......we have been having these ULL's in the area during May which lead to near record rainfall in San Diego.......and most of our rain this winter was attributable to the ULL's diving down the west coast into the bottom of a trof in our area. Tis ok with me if it continues all summer...high today will be about 80 with normal being 90-100....80 in mid July is ok with me. Now.........C'mon El Nino!
Kadena is a City in Okinawa, where the U. S. AFB is Located.


Thanks Dr. Masters for the basic warnings and predictions, along with the statistics on the heat records from several countries.

I am interested and concerned about this long spell of warm weather in central Europe as unlike the Mediterranean countries they are not used too or set up for excessive heat.
Added to the above the snow cap and glaciers of the Swiss/Italian alps must be melting at an alarming rate!

At the end of the last blog tornadodude put up a video of an Italian tornado which looked very strong. Maybe somebody will get more info on this soon as well. The Italians wont be expecting tornados either and wont have much if any protection available from them.

Temp down to 36/C today in southern Spain at 6 pm.

Quoting 8. Patrap:

Kadena is a City in Okinawa, where the U. S. AFB is Located.




The Air Force used to fly the SR-71 Blackbird out of Kadena during the Vietnam War.
Chinese love living near the coastal area...(it seems). It s not too wise though.

Another from near Venice, Italy
Quoting 7. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thanks Dr Masters...........meanwhile in Soo Cal temps expected to be 10-20 degrees below normal the next few days as a decent ULL moves into central California coast and heads east.......we have been having these ULL's in the area during May which lead to near record rainfall in San Diego.......and most of our rain this winter was attributable to the ULL's diving down the west coast into the bottom of a trof in our area. Tis ok with me if it continues all summer...high today will be about 80 with normal being 90-100....80 in mid July is ok with me. Now.........C'mon El Nino!


Forecast high for tomorrow is 74(!). Can't complain about that in July.
Thanks for the update, doc!

As the blog changed immediately after the post below I may repost it here again. The video is worth watching.

New video of that Framersheim-downburst yesterday a little south of me (see post #267, old blog) has emerged, and I really cannot hide this from your attention. Quite like an eyewall experience, at least for some seconds, or not?



New article in English available with some pics of the damage:
Violent storm rips through German village Framersheim
A violent storm has devastated a village in Germany's Rhineland-Palatinate. The mix of strong winds and hail has left up to 10 million euros ($11 million) in damages, according to Framersheim's Mayor Ulrich Armbruester.
Deutsche Welle English, July 8, 2015

Edit: Same thing (probably a downburst, not a tornado - edit: database of tornadoes in Germany says this indeed could have been a tornado; it's under investigation) in Halle, wow:



Edit: good youtube video of the storm clouds in Halle.
Another one.

BTW, one again thanks to Nea for providing the embed-coderizer!
Is anyone else having issues with Levi's site? As of this morning, the layout is all funky and I can't do anything on the site.
Quoting 12. weathermanwannabe:



The Air Force used to fly the SR-71 Blackbird out of Kadena during the Vietnam War.


I guarded the HABU Hangers there in Summer 83,..

Last Squadron left in 90.

Father fought in the WW 2 battle of Okinawa as a 105 USMC Gunner/F/O



Quoting 17. tampabaymatt:

Is anyone else having issues with Levi's site? As of this morning, the layout is all funky and I can't do anything on the site.
Levi redesigned the site. It looks pretty cool to me and it works for me too.
Levi's Blog

Follow me on:

Website Update Posted by Levi at 9:50am on July 8, 2015 - Leave a comment

Changes

This website was updated on July 7. The code for all pages has been rewritten in responsive design, meaning pages now resize and display differently based on your device or browser width. The website should be fully usable on anything from phones to desktops, and the pages will now take advantage of more space on widescreen monitors.

The only downside to these changes is that this type of responsive layout does not work on older browsers, specifically Internet Explorer before version 11 and Android before version 4.4 (Kit-Kat). However, all current versions of modern browsers will run the website. My statistics show around 95% of you are running a browser that can support the new website. I hope you enjoy the new look.

I'm running a modern browser but the site looks funny??

Sometimes your browser's cache will use old style sheets to render the new pages if you're viewing them for the first time since the update. A simple refresh of the page should load the new style sheets for the website, making it display properly.

Bug Reports

I've done my best to make this site compatible with the vast majority of users, but if you encounter a bug in how a page displays or functions, please let me know via email. Reporting your browser name and version and including a screenshot of the problem is always helpful!

Thanks everyone for continuing to support this site. It would not exist without those who use it.

Levi
Quoting 19. HurricaneAndre:

Levi redesigned the site. It looks pretty cool to me and it works for me too.


Thanks, I didn't know that. I wonder if it's only compatible with certain browsers now. I use IE.
Quoting 16. barbamz:

Thanks for the update, doc!

As the blog changed immediately after the post below I may repost it here again. The video is worth watching.

New video of that Framersheim-downburst yesterday a little south of me (see post #267, old blog) has emerged, and I really cannot hide this from your attention. Quite like an eyewall experience, at least for some seconds, or not?



New article in English available with some pics of the damage:
Violent storm rips through German village Framersheim
A violent storm has devastated a village in Germany's Rhineland-Palatinate. The mix of strong winds and hail has left up to 10 million euros ($11 million) in damages, according to Framersheim's Mayor Ulrich Armbruester.
Deutsche Welle English, July 8, 2015


Wow!
18. Patrap
12:31 PM EDT on July 08, 2015


Very cool; my Dad was in the CIA in the 1960's; I did not appreciate it as a kid when he told me (before the SR went online) but he saw several U-2's fly in and out of a few "locations" and he always marveled talking with his buds when they were home about how the U-2 would take off and almost go almost vertical on a steep angle right after take-off towards operational heights of 60,000 feet.
Quoting 5. Envoirment:

Just want to reiterate not to think of a season as "bust" until it's over. 1965 was a -AMO year, a -NAO year and had a strong - almost very strong- El Nino develop. So conditions were very hostile to TC formation that year and in total only 6 tropical cyclones developed. However, one of those that formed on August 27th, became the costliest hurricane on record at the time and devastated parts of the US. That was hurricane Betsy (also known as Billion Dollar Betsy):






This was the last big storm here before Andrew.
Quoting 25. BahaHurican:

This was the last big storm here before Andrew.


Wow, indeed, Betsy was my First Hurricane and Major as I was 5 years and 7 mths, and got scared as all get out when the chatter about the "Eye" was gonna come right over the neighborhood. I was expecting that a Storming Human Eye was coming. It was way worse than that thought I can assure one.

Plus having a whole street full of WW-2 Vets running around like in Combat mode was memorable.

40 years later I would see something very similar. At 45.

Interesting temps and wind map for southern Europe at the moment.

Link

The Italian tornado video make me think there might be a lot of damage from that as it looks very strong.
Quoting 9. PlazaRed:

At the end of the last blog Barbanz put up a video of an Italian tornado which looked very strong. Maybe somebody will get more info on this soon as well. The Italians wont be expecting tornados either and wont have much if any protection available from them.

Thanks Plaza. I've reposted the video above in #8, but it isn't from Italy. It happened just a couple of miles south of me in Germany yesterday afternoon while I was watching ominous clouds above me which fortunately didn't do any harm to my place in Mainz ...
Recon suggests Four-E is likely a low-end tropical storm.

30. JRRP

oh..
Quoting 13. NoobDave:

Chinese love living near the coastal area...(it seems). It s not too wise though.




A good read along those lines, written 1998;

THE COASTAL POPULATION EXPLOSION
Don Hinrichsen
United Nations consultant and author
Euro is out to paid clients and it too has went higher with this El-Nino than June update. Expect a drastic IRI update on this ENSO come July 19th.

Eric Blake@EricBlake12
CFS & ECMWF show a "Jurassic" #ElNino for later this yr, beating all-time record by ~0.5C HT @philklotzbach #climate
Quoting 16. barbamz:

Thanks for the update, doc!

As the blog changed immediately after the post below I may repost it here again. The video is worth watching.

New video of that Framersheim-downburst yesterday a little south of me (see post #267, old blog) has emerged, and I really cannot hide this from your attention. Quite like an eyewall experience, at least for some seconds, or not?



New article in English available with some pics of the damage:
Violent storm rips through German village Framersheim
A violent storm has devastated a village in Germany's Rhineland-Palatinate. The mix of strong winds and hail has left up to 10 million euros ($11 million) in damages, according to Framersheim's Mayor Ulrich Armbruester.
Deutsche Welle English, July 8, 2015

Edit: Same thing (probably a downburst, not a tornado) in Halle, wow:


BTW, one again thanks to Nea for providing the embed-coderizer!


What is the diference between downburst and microburst?
With this ENSO likely topping 1997/1998 I wonder if we will make a run @ the 1887/1888 event which I believe was around 3C. Funny with no GW that was the strongest ENSO to date.
Quoting 30. JRRP:


oh..


WOW 2 times:


Strongest hurricane ever recorded in the E. Pacific: Linda - 185 mph - 902 mbar.

12Z GFS is showing lots of convection over FL all next week with very light shear overhead. May need to watch for a tropical development on either side of FL come later next week.
Quoting 32. tornadodude:

Video of violent tornado near Venice, Italy earlier today

Oh boy, incredible video. Where Mira is situated: Link. An Italian article says the attached supercell (which formed due to the cold front from the north) sucked in energy from the Lagune of Venice before it spawned the tornado.


Current European airmasses with the mcs over northeastern Italy.
Quoting 38. barbamz:


Oh boy, incredible. Where Mira is situated: Link. An Italian article says the attached supercell (which formed due to the cold front from the north) sucked in energy from the Lagune of Venice before it spawned the tornado.


Current European airmasses with the mcs over northeastern Italy.


That severe weather over NE Italy is likely a result of the Heat Ridge breaking down that has been baking Europe recently.
Quoting 37. StormTrackerScott:

12Z GFS is showing lots of convection over FL all next week with very light shear overhead. May need to watch for a tropical development on either side of FL come later next week.
You think that the GFS may be on to something.
Nobel Prize-winning scientist says Obama is ‘dead wrong’ on global warming! Very interesting, I guess not all Scientists are in agreement, even good ones!

Link
Quoting 4. tornadodude:

Tornado ongoing near Venice, Italy






Looks like that storm formed on the Lee-side of the Alps and gained a lot momentum as it headed SE.
Quoting 26. Patrap:



Wow, indeed, Betsy was my First Hurricane and Major as I was 5 years and 7 mths, and got scared as all get out when the chatter about the "Eye" was gonna come right over the neighborhood. I was expecting that a Storming Human Eye was coming. It was way worse than that thought I can assure one.

Plus having a whole street full of WW-2 Vets running around like in Combat mode was memorable.

40 years later I would see something very similar. At 45.


She wuz a monster cane..Me Grandma spoke of her, uncle was born just before...I mentioned here that i was being created at the time.
Quoting 40. HurricaneAndre:

You think that the GFS may be on to something.


GFS has no shear to speak of all around FL later next week. Well see
Quoting 41. 69Viking:

Nobel Prize-winning scientist says Obama is ‘dead wrong’ on global warming! Very interesting, I guess not all Scientists are in agreement, even good ones!

Link

No, no, no. We already did this yesterday. The guy is 86 years old and studied AGW by googling for something like an afternoon. He has zero credibility on the topic.

As always, he's perfectly free to write up his findings and submit them to a peer-reviewed journal. Science editors need to laugh just like everybody else.
Quoting 34. pablosyn:
What is the diference between downburst and microburst?

Good question ... *google, google*; looks like it's a question of size - but I've no idea how the events in Germany yesterday will be classified:

Downbursts, Macrobursts, Microbursts: Just as Damaging as Tornadoes
By Chrissy Warrilow, Published Apr 26 2015 12:27 PM EDT, weather.com

Edit: A member of a German weatherblog has visited the affected town Framersheim and says that the zone of damage is aprox. 3 km (1,86 miles) long, 1 km (0,62 miles) wide and the most severe damage happened in a strip which is 300m (984 feet) wide. All trees fell from west to east (so no tornado). Source with the pic of a thick timber which was blown 115m (377 feet) through the air. He says: extreme downburst.
I was wondering about the El Nino situation in 1965. Betsy was my "first" storm as well. My family barely evacuated in time from lower Plaquemines Parish. In fact, slates were starting to come off the roof before we left! We wound up having to stay at a motel on Airline Hwy when it was still marginally respectable, I.e. before Jimmy Swaggart's downfall.
Quoting 41. 69Viking:

Nobel Prize-winning scientist says Obama is %u2018dead wrong%u2019 on global warming! Very interesting, I guess not all Scientists are in agreement, even good ones!

Link


Here is quote from the article:
"Giaever argued that there's been no global warming for the last 17 years or so (based on satellite records), weather hasn't gotten more extreme and that global temperature has only slightly risen - and that's based on data being "fiddled" with by scientists, he said."

Would you like to point everything that is wrong with what he said there? Would you also like to point out that the rest of the article was wholly opinion based and not supported by any evidence?
Poll
What will be the peak for the 2015 El nino:
A.Weak El nino
B.Moderate El nino
C.Strong El nino
D.Super El nino
E.Jurassic El nino
F.Ice age La nina
Quoting 50. Gearsts:

Poll
What will be the peak for the 2015 El nino:
A.Weak El nino
B.Moderate El nino
C.Strong El nino
D.Super El nino
E.Jurassic El nino
F.Ice age La nina

C
Quoting 26. Patrap:
Wow, indeed, Betsy was my First Hurricane and Major as I was 5 years and 7 mths, and got scared as all get out when the chatter about the "Eye" was gonna come right over the neighborhood. I was expecting that a Storming Human Eye was coming. It was way worse than that thought I can assure one.

Nice story, Pat, and poor boy! Reminds me of: I am the eye in the sky, looking at you ...
Quoting 48. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Here is quote from the article:
"Giaever argued that there's been no global warming for the last 17 years or so (based on satellite records), weather hasn't gotten more extreme and that global temperature has only slightly risen - and that's based on data being "fiddled" with by scientists, he said."

Would you like to point everything that is wrong with what he said there? Would you also like to point out that the rest of the article was wholly opinion based and not supported by any evidence?

I always love that "based on satellite" nonsense. That assertion is based on only one of two satellite data sets (RSS). The other satellite data set (UAH) shows more or less expected warming from AGW over such a time frame.

Of course, the truth of the matter is that if one doesn't start measuring from the highly anomalously warm year of 1998 and instead starts in 1999 we find that both BEST and NOAA data sets show statistically-significant warming from 1999-May 2015.
Quoting 50. Gearsts:

Poll
What will be the peak for the 2015 El nino:
A.Weak El nino
B.Moderate El nino
C.Strong El nino
D.Super El nino
E.Jurassic El nino
F.Ice age La nina


Is the Jurassic El Nino with or without the dinosaur whisperer? I have seen the movie. It makes for a big difference on the outcome.
Quoting 54. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Is the Jurassic El Nino with or without the dinosaur whisperer? I have seen the movie. It makes for a big difference on the outcome.


Ok. I say D) Super!!
Quoting 41. 69Viking:

Nobel Prize-winning scientist says Obama is ‘dead wrong’ on global warming! Very interesting, I guess not all Scientists are in agreement, even good ones!

Link


Excerpt from the Wikipedia article:

"Giaever's share of the [Nobel] prize was specifically for his "experimental discoveries regarding tunneling phenomena in superconductors".

He is definitely a smart, focused person. You don't get a Nobel prize for being stupid and lazy. You also don't become an expert on something after studying it for a relatively short period of time.

He is certainly free to express his opinions, but this unfortunately sounds like a case of someone with a once very sharp mind that is starting to dull and threw a temper tantrum and resigned from the American Physical Society when they basically told him that his screws were coming loose. The nail in the coffin in his credibility is the fact that he thinks the data is being "fiddled with". That usually means: "I have this idea, everyone tells me I'm crazy, so I will get defensive, back into a corner and call them all conspirators. In my head, that means I will gain credibility".
Quoting 50. Gearsts:

Poll
What will be the peak for the 2015 El nino:
A.Weak El nino
B.Moderate El nino
C.Strong El nino
D.Super El nino
E.Jurassic El nino
F.Ice age La nina


D all the way baby!
Quoting 50. Gearsts:

Poll
What will be the peak for the 2015 El nino:
A.Weak El nino
B.Moderate El nino
C.Strong El nino
D.Super El nino
E.Jurassic El nino
F.Ice age La nina
D.
Quoting 54. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Is the Jurassic El Nino with or without the dinosaur whisperer? I have seen the movie. It makes for a big difference on the outcome.
New term being thrown around ;)
As to El Nino, it certainly has a massive head of steam built up (yes, I am a steam train dork as well). With that said, all that energy piled up in the Eastern Pacific is not going anywhere, anytime soon. So it stands to reason that unless a very large, very abrupt pattern change occurs very soon, El Nino is going to be with us till the end of the year.
Quoting 59. Gearsts:

New term being thrown around ;)


You have to admit its funny that Eric Blake used it. I think he used because he saw the July Euro update. Going to be interesting to see what the rise will be in the IRI ENSO update come July 19th. I suspect Webberwather will not be please with this next update as every model now has trended much higher than in June. Which is remarkable because we are beginning to get closer to Fall now so this rise is very believable considering we are pulling further away from the Spring Barrier and we have the strongest Summer WWB & the strongest MJO ever.

What we have 6 to 7 weeks to Labor Day. Hard to believe!
In related Science news:  http://news.sciencemag.org/people-events/2015/07/ mcnutt-nomination-u-s-academy-will-benefit-women-c limate-debate-researchers

By Marianne Lavelle 

The naming of Science Editor-in-Chief Marcia McNutt as the likely next president of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS) has won praise as a move that will bolster women in the profession while providing knowledgeable leadership in the policy challenges ahead on climate change.

If McNutt is elected, as expected, she would be the first woman to lead the U.S. government's premier science advisory organization in its 152-year history.  And because she is a geophysicist, her rise next year would mark a break for NAS, which by tradition would have selected a new leader from the biological sciences after the two-term presidency of atmospheric scientist Ralph J. Cicerone.

McNutt underscored that importance in offering her own thoughts on the challenge ahead for NAS. "I worry that if society does not take action on the problem of climate change within the next few years, it will be too late to make a meaningful difference in emissions before unacceptable consequences are a foregone conclusion," she wrote in an email. "My goal as NAS president would be to spur serious action on mitigation and adaptation, showing U.S. leadership in technology choices and policy solutions that can be widely adopted."

Speaking of Nobel Laureates, from Dr. Rood's blog:

Quoting 113. barbamz:

Nobel Laureates call for action on climate change at Lindau
Deutsche Welle English, July 3, 2015
At the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting, some of the world's most senior scientists have signed a joint declaration on climate change, backing the science, and calling for action. But what will it help? ...

A group of Nobel Laureates have signed a declaration calling for urgent action on climate change
Quartz, July 3, 2015 (with full text of the declaration)
In 1955, partly out of urgency and partly out of guilt, a group of 52 Nobel Laureates signed a declaration on Mainau Island in Germany calling for an end to the use of nuclear weapons. The work of some of these prizewinners—including that of Otto Hahn, who discovered nuclear fission—was used to build nuclear weapons. They were horrified their work was turned into technology that could kill billions.
Now, 60 years on, again out of a mix of urgency and guilt, a group of 36 Nobel prizewinners have signed a new Mainau Declaration (pdf) calling for urgent action on climate change. The document is open for other Nobel Laureates to join. ....



Some more words in hope of action. (Christian Flemming/Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings)
Quoting 28. barbamz:


Thanks Plaza. I've reposted the video above in #8, but it isn't from Italy. It happened just a couple of miles south of me in Germany yesterday afternoon while I was watching ominous clouds above me which fortunately didn't do any harm to my place in Mainz ...



Wow, that's really scary, but quite fascinating also! Was this the first time a tornado affected your area or does it happen more frequently (for European standards lol)? I can't recall a single tornado event here in Austria although as far as I know ~1 tornado touches down each year (mostly very weak obviously). The Alps, which compromise 2/3 of Austria are practically tornado-free so I guess I'll never get to see one.
Quoting 50. Gearsts:

Poll
What will be the peak for the 2015 El nino:
A.Weak El nino
B.Moderate El nino
C.Strong El nino
D.Super El nino
E.Jurassic El nino
F.Ice age La nina


Totally going with F.
Quoting 50. Gearsts:

Poll
What will be the peak for the 2015 El nino:
A.Weak El nino
B.Moderate El nino
C.Strong El nino
D.Super El nino
E.Jurassic El nino
F.Ice age La nina

Ooh I know C.
Quoting 50. Gearsts:

Poll
What will be the peak for the 2015 El nino:
A.Weak El nino
B.Moderate El nino
C.Strong El nino
D.Super El nino
E.Jurassic El nino
F.Ice age La nina

LOL - anyone choosing 'F' should fully make their case...starting with Huracan94 ;-)
Coastal SSTs from SF to Monterey stayed above 60 F all night for the first time this year last night.
Quoting 46. barbamz:


Good question ... *google, google*; looks like it's a question of size - but I've no idea how the events in Germany yesterday will be classified:

Downbursts, Macrobursts, Microbursts: Just as Damaging as Tornadoes
By Chrissy Warrilow, Published Apr 26 2015 12:27 PM EDT, weather.com

Edit: A member of a German weatherblog has visited the affected town Framersheim and says that zone of damage is aprox. 3 km (1,86 miles) long, 1 km (0,62 miles) wide and the most severe damage happened in a strip which is 300m (984 feet) wide. All trees fell from west to east (so no tornado). Source with the pic of a thick timber which was blown 115m (377 feet) through the air. He says: extreme downburst.


Great little video - I'm bookmarking this one!
I will go with Jurassic, the image of Scott and Webber arguing that the el nino  some 20 to 30 years from now will be another"Jurassic" event like 2015 is hilarious.
Quoting 41. 69Viking:

Nobel Prize-winning scientist says Obama is %u2018dead wrong%u2019 on global warming! Very interesting, I guess not all Scientists are in agreement, even good ones!

Link
No matter how robust the scientific theory, you can always find someone with a PhD after his name--even a Nobel laureate--who says it is a crock.

Relativity, plate tectonics, the germ theory of disease, evolution, gravity, the Big Bang, it doesn't matter: there will always be a few crackpots with advanced degrees saying science has it all wrong. Usually these "contrarians" are from fields unrelated to the theory they are criticizing or have been inactive as researchers for a long time (or both, as is the case with Ivar Giaever in your link). Often they will compare themselves to Galileo and whine about how they are persecuted for telling the "truth."

Giaever just parrots standard denier BS, showing he has no idea what he's talking about. Not impressive, even for an old crank.

And, no, global warming has not stopped: Link
Strong for sure, but not knowing what the parameters are for "super", not as confident going that far...yet.
Quoting 50. Gearsts:

Poll
What will be the peak for the 2015 El nino:
A.Weak El nino
B.Moderate El nino
C.Strong El nino
D.Super El nino
E.Jurassic El nino
F.Ice age La nina
Quoting 70. NoobDave:

I will go with Jurassic, the image of Scott and Webber arguing that the el nino  some 20 to 30 years from now will be another"Jurassic" event like 2015 is hilarious.



No worries we have 2 different styles. He is more conservative than I am with this ENSO mainly because I see this event has lots of potential going for it more so than what I saw in 1997. For all I know he wasn't born in 1997.
How many total named storms will we have in the Atlantic this season?
A.)2-4
B.)5-7
C.)8-10
D.)11-13
E.)How bout I'll wait and see!!!!
Quoting 73. StormTrackerScott:



No worries we have 2 different styles. He is more conservative than I am with this ENSO mainly because I see this event has lots of potential going for it more so than what I saw in 1997. For all I know he wasn't born in 1997.

Well I wasn't. 2001 all the way. This is my first understanding of el nino.
Quoting 74. tiggerhurricanes2001:

How many total named storms will we have in the Atlantic this season?
A.)2-4
B.)5-7
C.)8-10
D.)11-13
E.)How bout I'll wait and see!!!!


B
Quoting 50. Gearsts:

Poll
What will be the peak for the 2015 El nino:
A.Weak El nino
B.Moderate El nino
C.Strong El nino
D.Super El nino
E.Jurassic El nino
F.Ice age La nina


if it isn't E then scott's gonna have to be put on suicide watch.


Thunderstorms are beginning to fire in Tampa.
Quoting 74. tiggerhurricanes2001:

How many total named storms will we have in the Atlantic this season?
A.)2-4
B.)5-7
C.)8-10
D.)11-13
E.)How bout I'll wait and see!!!!


I say 8 storms all together so I choose C.
Quoting 64. fabian171017:
Wow, that's really scary, but quite fascinating also! Was this the first time a tornado affected your area or does it happen more frequently (for European standards lol)? I can't recall a single tornado event here in Austria although as far as I know ~1 tornado touches down each year (mostly very weak obviously). The Alps, which compromise 2/3 of Austria are practically tornado-free so I guess I'll never get to see one.

Hi, Fabian. As the (a little outdated) map below shows my part in the central-southwest Germany got hit from tornadoes quite regularily. I haven't met one yet in person, though ;-)

Known tornadoes in Germany until 2007 (map won't be updated any longer). Source.

New database for tornadoes in Germany.

The event in nearby Framersheim wasn't a tornado though. I've added some data about this extreme downburst in post #46.

Have to go for a while ... Nice evening!
LOL, I knew that link would stir things up here a bit!

Hey Scott, when does it look like NW Florida might see a chance for rain again? Sure looks like that rain blocking High has settled over us again.
Quoting 74. tiggerhurricanes2001:

How many total named storms will we have in the Atlantic this season?
A.)2-4
B.)5-7
C.)8-10
D.)11-13
E.)How bout I'll wait and see!!!!


C
Keep calm and stop obsessing over weekly changes in ENSO

Excerpt:

“El Niño is Strong!”
“No, it’s Moderate!”
“But the [insert your favorite ENSO indicator here]
is the largest it’s been since the El Niño of 1997-98!”






Must read this blog.............
O sorry, I never poll on a Weds.

: )
Quoting 74. tiggerhurricanes2001:

How many total named storms will we have in the Atlantic this season?
A.)2-4
B.)5-7
C.)8-10
D.)11-13
E.)How bout I'll wait and see!!!!
C.
Thankfully we have a LINK prompt to display a FAUX NEWS link and not have to waste the brain to view it.
2 hurricanes (1 major-1 minor) and 4 tropical storms.....................4 inside the Caribbean/Gulf and 2 on the East Coast per my Magic 8 Ball..................................
Quoting 78. schwankmoe:



if it isn't E then scott's gonna have to be put on suicide watch.


2C to 2.5C Is where I am "Super Range". Most models are in the 2.5C to 3C range now which according to Eric Blake is Jurassic status. I love the saying though and will use if I see we are moving in that direction.

For now I stick with D
From InsideClimate News:

Methane Emissions in Texas Fracking Region 50% Higher Than EPA Estimates

Environmental Defense Fund-backed studies of 30,000 Barnett Shale wells shows the EPA has vastly underestimated emissions.


Eleven new studies conclude overall that emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, were 50 percent higher in the heavily fracked Texas Barnett Shale than estimated by the U.S. EPA. Credit: Jeff Foster, flickr

The release of 11 research papers Tuesday marked another milestone in the Environmental Defense Fund's ongoing effort to understand the natural gas industry's carbon footprint. Overall, the studies found that emissions of methane––a greenhouse gas at least 34 times more potent than carbon dioxide––in the Texas Barnett Shale were 50 percent higher than estimated by the Environmental Protection Agency.

The EDF-sponsored research adds to a growing body of work on the amount of methane leaking from natural gas operations, and the results are crucial for understanding whether natural gas will accelerate or delay the effects of climate change as it's increasingly used in place of coal.

Dozens of scientists from 20 universities and private research firms contributed to the 11 studies, collectively called the "Barnett Coordinated Campaign." Twelve research teams took measurements over an area that included 30,000 oil and gas wells, 275 compressor stations and 40 processing plants. All of the studies were published in the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Science & Engineering. Another study that synthesizes the papers' results will be published later.

Read more >>
Quoting 82. 69Viking:

LOL, I knew that link would stir things up here a bit!

Hey Scott, when does it look like NW Florida might see a chance for rain again? Sure looks like that rain blocking High has settled over us again.


Next week buddy infact all next week looks wet across FL. Pattern break? Reason I say this is because the GFS is showing a nice tap of moisture coming up from the Caribbean the first I've seen this set up all Summer. Also very low shear in place next week all around FL. Will have to watch big complexes of thunderstorms moving off FL during the evening hours as 2009 Claudette rings a bell.



Quoting 84. nrtiwlnvragn:

Keep calm and stop obsessing over weekly changes in ENSO

Excerpt:

“El Niño is Strong!”
“No, it’s Moderate!”
“But the [insert your favorite ENSO indicator here]
is the largest it’s been since the El Niño of 1997-98!”






Must read this blog.............


Biggest ENSO event since 1997 so that is why many forecasters, scientist, and us on this blog are all over this. Especially since we are witnessing what appears to be the beginnings of a Historic Event materializing due to some record breaking factors favoring this event to be as some mets are now saying Jurassic.
And here is the current African wave train that I mentioned this morning due to the current wet pattern in the Sahel: don't count out the possibility of a few Cape Verde storms this year during the peak period regardless of potentially low overall numbers.


Quoting 56. tlawson48:



Excerpt from the Wikipedia article:

"Giaever's share of the [Nobel] prize was specifically for his "experimental discoveries regarding tunneling phenomena in superconductors".

He is definitely a smart, focused person. You don't get a Nobel prize for being stupid and lazy. You also don't become an expert on something after studying it for a relatively short period of time.

He is certainly free to express his opinions, but this unfortunately sounds like a case of someone with a once very sharp mind that is starting to dull and threw a temper tantrum and resigned from the American Physical Society when they basically told him that his screws were coming loose. The nail in the coffin in his credibility is the fact that he thinks the data is being "fiddled with". That usually means: "I have this idea, everyone tells me I'm crazy, so I will get defensive, back into a corner and call them all conspirators. In my head, that means I will gain credibility".
At 86, he is being used and abused, poor guy. It may be that in his head he is convinced that all are wrong but him (and the users who are using him) and defends his last grasps at reality by jumping on the disputed "fiddled data" as a coping mechanism.
Laos also recorded its highest temperature ever in July with 38.5C at Savannakeht.
Than,if we skip the not fully reliable nor fully official record of 38.5C at Andorra La Vella of July 2005, the 37.7C recorded yesterday at Borda Vidal would be the highest temperature ever recorded in the Principate of Andorra in July (except few past wrong data), and the second ever after the 37.9C recorded at Roc St. Pere in August 2012.
Catalunya had also its highest temperature ever (for any month) with 43.1C at Lleida (Lerida)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is expected this weekend and early next
week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent


up to 60%
Quoting 26. Patrap:



Wow, indeed, Betsy was my First Hurricane and Major as I was 5 years and 7 mths, and got scared as all get out when the chatter about the "Eye" was gonna come right over the neighborhood. I was expecting that a Storming Human Eye was coming. It was way worse than that thought I can assure one.

Plus having a whole street full of WW-2 Vets running around like in Combat mode was memorable.

40 years later I would see something very similar. At 45.




I was 4 1/2 and living in Slidell at the time. Don't remember being scared but I do remember the wind and could take you today and show you where every tree fell in our yard(If it's still there). Our house didn't flood but my uncles and most of the neighborhood did. His VW that he brought from Germany floated down the street.

BTW. Happy 10th anniversary Pat. That was just before I started lurking here.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042015
500 AM HST WED JUL 08 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 142.1W
ABOUT 865 MI E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1060 MI ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH SOME SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.
El-Nino summer so far for upper Midwest. Temps consistently between 72-80 for daytime highs, nights drop off to the fifties; Wisconsin is very pleasant during El-Nino seasons. Lucky for us, those in OK and TX have had the severe effects of this building El-Nino. I have no horse in the race for whether this rivals 97 or not, just 97 El-Nino had very very severe consequence for many worldwide. Where in the world get's those effects this year and what are they likely to be? WPAC certainly showing off; Philippines certainly breathing a sigh of relief so far. Just thinking of back to back to back typhoons going through the Philippines is scary. Three aligned typhoons the engine builder for a strengthening El-Nino and vice versa. Will the WPAC slow down now and El-Nino peak early or will the W.PAC remain very active and a strong El-Nino sustain to peak at near or even above 97 levels?
up to 60%

tht just can't be right....it's dead.....dead i tell you....now quit bringing science into a weather blog...it just screws up the thinking
So now we're talking jurassic El Niño. Lol
Quoting 97. ricderr:




IRI model update looking interesting Ric even the statistical models shot up. Should see the mean rise roughly 0.6C from the previous update.
Quoting 102. Bucsboltsfan:

So now we're talking jurassic El Ni%uFFFDo. Lol


It wasn't me!

Eric Blake@EricBlake12 3h3 hours ago
CFS & ECMWF show a "Jurassic" #ElNino for later this yr, beating all-time record by ~0.5C HT @philklotzbach #climate
Quoting 94. Pipejazz:

At 86, he is being used and abused, poor guy. It may be that in his head he is convinced that all are wrong but him (and the users who are using him) and defends his last grasps at reality by jumping on the disputed "fiddled data" as a coping mechanism.

Senile?
Quoting 101. ricderr:

up to 60%

tht just can't be right....it's dead.....dead i tell you....now quit bringing science into a weather blog...it just screws up the thinking
You know that weather is a form of science you know. Lol.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042015
500 AM HST WED JUL 08 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS FAILED TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...MOST LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE DUE TO A PAUCITY OF RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES...AND DUE TO WHAT
APPEAR TO BE SHORT-LIVED MID-LEVEL CENTERS RAPIDLY EJECTING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FROM WHERE THE LLCC IS ASSUMED TO BE. LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5...BUT A
DATA-T IS NEARLY UNATTAINABLE DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER. AS ORGANIZATION HAS NOT INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/14 KT...BUT DUE TO THE POORLY
DEFINED CENTER...A GREATER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDS THIS MOTION VECTOR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE NORTHEAST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS
INDICATES NEARLY 20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM...WHILE SHIPS INDICATES SOMEWHAT LOWER VALUES INITIALLY.
SHEAR VALUES AS HIGH AS 50 KT LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED OF MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW ALOFT CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST...MAINTAINING AT LEAST MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS PERSISTENT SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM BY DAY 3...BUT THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
KEEP IT MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWEST BEFORE THE REMNANT SYSTEM TURNS A
LITTLE MORE WESTWARD ON DAY 4. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS GFEX
GUIDANCE.

SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ONLY A SMALL WINDOW EXISTS FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO INTENSIFY BEFORE THE SYSTEM SUCCUMBS TO THE
DEBILITATING IMPACTS OF INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WITH
GFS-BASED SHIPS DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS. WHILE THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT
TERM...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS WANING DUE TO THE CYCLONE/S
INABILITY TO CONSOLIDATE OVERNIGHT. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE TRENDS PRESENTED BY THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE...AND HAS BEEN
NUDGED DOWNWARD...WITH A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON DAY 4
DISSIPATING BY DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 17.5N 142.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 18.5N 143.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 19.8N 145.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 20.9N 147.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 21.9N 149.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 23.4N 154.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 25.5N 159.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Quoting 95. maxcrc:

Laos also recorded its highest temperature ever in July with 38.5C at Savannakeht.
Than,if we skip the not fully reliable nor fully official record of 38.5C at Andorra La Vella of July 2005, the 37.7C recorded yesterday at Borda Vidal would be the highest temperature ever recorded in the Principate of Andorra in July (except few past wrong data), and the second ever after the 37.9C recorded at Roc St. Pere in August 2012.
Catalunya had also its highest temperature ever (for any month) with 43.1C at Lleida (Lerida)


Given a lapse rate of 1.95 C for each 1,000 feet of altitude, you can add 6.5 C to the Andorra La Vella (alt. 3,356 ft) record for an equivalent sea level temperature = 45 C. That's 113 F.
Quoting 106. hurricanes2018:


So again, which name will this storm get if it becomes a Tropical Storm.
Absolutely pouring at my location and a training event appears to be establishing itself over NW Tampa.
112. BDAwx
Great structure on Tropical Storm Linfa on Chinese radar
Quoting 64. fabian171017:




Wow, that's really scary, but quite fascinating also! Was this the first time a tornado affected your area or does it happen more frequently (for European standards lol)? I can't recall a single tornado event here in Austria although as far as I know ~1 tornado touches down each year (mostly very weak obviously). The Alps, which compromise 2/3 of Austria are practically tornado-free so I guess I'll never get to see one.


Don't feel bad Fabian, I live in Birmingham Alabama and we have been rated the most tornado prone city in the world. I've never seen a tornado, though I have had some small debris fall on me right after a tornado lifted before getting to my house.


Tropical Storm 10W (Linfa)maybe a landfall soon!

CNN)—An area the size of Connecticut has burned in Alaska this year, the state said. That's 3.1 million acres, a loss that comes during one of the hottest periods in decades.

The state set a new record for the earliest day with a temperature above 90, when the mercury hit 91 in the town of Eagle on May 23 -- 30 degrees hotter than the average high temperature in May, according to the National Weather Service.
Quoting 92. StormTrackerScott:



Biggest ENSO event since 1997 so that is why many forecasters, scientist, and us on this blog are all over this. Especially since we are witnessing what appears to be the beginnings of a Historic Event materializing due to some record breaking factors favoring this event to be as some mets are now saying Jurassic.
Which mets are classifying the current El Nino event as "Jurassic"? I mean, aside from Eric Blake?

Anyway, this sage advice from NOAA:



maybe some t.storm soon
Quoting 117. Neapolitan:

Which mets are classifying the current El Nino event as "Jurassic"? I mean, aside from Eric Blake?

Anyway, this sage advice from NOAA:



That sage advice makes sense. OTOH, it can be fun to obsess over weekly changes, whether ENSO or Arctic sea ice or whatever. That doesn't make it any less pointless, though. Still, I believe in letting people have their fun. Anything I get tired of reading I can just skip right over.
Quoting 89. StormTrackerScott:



2C to 2.5C Is where I am "Super Range". Most models are in the 2.5C to 3C range now which according to Eric Blake is Jurassic status. I love the saying though and will use if I see we are moving in that direction.

For now I stick with D


hey now, you guys told me the pacific would be a boiling cauldron. don't backpedal on me now.
Linfa is DEFINITELY not a tropical storm at this point. Southeast China is a densely populated area and this could be a major disaster. Reminds me a lot of Vicente (2012?)
Quoting 120. Misanthroptimist:


OTOH, it can be fun to obsess over weekly changes


yes i guess, if you don't have anything better to do.
Quoting 121. schwankmoe:



hey now, you guys told me the pacific would be a boiling cauldron. don't backpedal on me now.


Almost impossible to get an ONI of 3C but 2.5C is seemingly likely. Here is this from a Wallstreet Journal writer.

Eric Holthaus ‏@EricHolthaus 22h22 hours ago
Wow, #ElNino.
(new NMME forecast for Oct-Nov-Dec 2015, increasingly likely to top 1997-98 for strongest ever)

Significant pattern change for the SE US next week.

Looking very wet for a change areawide.

Days 6 & 7 precip accums
Quoting 111. tampabaymatt:

Absolutely pouring at my location and a training event appears to be establishing itself over NW Tampa.


It seems like we flip flop with rainfall, I didn't get nearly as much as you in May, only 4.95 inches, while you had more than 10, in June I had 14.96, while you had much less than me, now you're getting dumped on but Ive only had 1.03 in the last 9 days, and the last day I had rain was the 4th.

Thankfully the ground is still wet and the grass is still growing like crazy thanks to a really wet June, hopefully we'll be "back in the groove" soon here. We've still been getting a lot of thunder the last several days, just the rain cores are missing.

One thing I've noticed is every time we switch back to an east flow, coverage goes down. Again, it's much to do I believe to the drier than normal tropical Atlantic and cooler than average water. Whereas the gulf flow brings high coverage thanks to deeper moisture, warmer water, and greater instability.

As much as I love the southeast flow because we get stronger thunderstorms, this year is an odd year in that usually the southeast flow brings the deepest moisture here, but this year it's bringing in the driest air. With that said, it might be better for the state as a whole to see a west flow more given when I mention above, especially drought stricken southeast FL.
Quoting 82. 69Viking:

LOL, I knew that link would stir things up here a bit!
So you were just trolling? Or do you actually agree with Giaever's remarks about global warming and his accusation that climate scientists are corrupt?
Quoting 125. StormTrackerScott:

Significant pattern change for the SE US next week.

Looking very wet for a change areawide.

Days 6 & 7 precip accums




The WPC is kind of odd, it GFS has more rain in Florida and less further north in the long term so does the ecmwf and much higher PW's across north and Central FL as further north. Not sure how the WPC does these progs or why since it always seems to show lower qpf here than the model consensus does.


If the WPC was right, the Tampa Bay area June total would have ranged from 2-4 inches based on there 1 week outlooks, but in reality it was anywhere from 6-10 inches with some local areas a less or more with an average of about 8 inches.
Quoting 122. Stormlover16:

Linfa is DEFINITELY not a tropical storm at this point. Southeast China is a densely populated area and this could be a major disaster. Reminds me a lot of Vicente (2012?)


It's been upgraded to Typhoon Linfa with 65kts. But the JTWC don't update their forecast until 21z (They update at 3z, 9z, 15z & 21z) so they'll likely update the forecast at 21z and may upgrade the strength further.
Quoting 125. StormTrackerScott:

Significant pattern change for the SE US next week.

Looking very wet for a change areawide.

Days 6 & 7 precip accums


Could you explain what is keeping the majority of Texas dry and when whatever it is might change to a wetter pattern? Thanks.
Quoting 127. Jedkins01:



It seems like we flip flop with rainfall, I didn't get nearly as much as you in May, only 4.95 inches, while you had more than 10, in June I had 14.96, while you had much less than me, now you're getting dumped on but Ive only had 1.03 in the last 9 days, and the last day I had rain was the 4th.

Thankfully the ground is still wet and the grass is still growing like crazy thanks to a really wet June, hopefully we'll be "back in the groove" soon here. We've still been getting a lot of thunder the last several days, just the rain cores are missing.

One thing I've noticed is every time we switch back to an east flow, coverage goes down. Again, it's much to do I believe to the drier than normal tropical Atlantic and cooler than average water. Whereas the gulf flow brings high coverage thanks to deeper moisture, warmer water, and greater instability.

As much as I love the southeast flow because we get stronger thunderstorms, this year is an odd year in that usually the southeast flow brings the deepest moisture here, but this year it's bringing in the driest air. With that said, it might be better for the state as a whole to see a west flow more given when I mention above, especially drought stricken southeast FL.


Looking wet all next week Jed and not just for a few days then it dries out for a few then back to wet. It appears this wet pattern beginning Sunday is going to be here to stay for atleast a week come Sunday. Pattern is favorable for heavy rain in SE FL too with such a deep Tropical plum moving from the SSW up from the Caribbean. This is the most promising sign I've see all summer so far.
Quoting 120. Misanthroptimist:


That sage advice makes sense. OTOH, it can be fun to obsess over weekly changes, whether ENSO or Arctic sea ice or whatever. That doesn't make it any less pointless, though. Still, I believe in letting people have their fun. Anything I get tired of reading I can just skip right over.

Agree - everyone has their own hobbies, interests, and at times, obsessions. And most of us (simply because we're on here) admittedly have our own 'nerdy' areas of interests.

This is not a criticism, people! I'm on here as well, and I admit I've got my own quirky fascinations :-)
Quoting 120. Misanthroptimist:


That sage advice makes sense. OTOH, it can be fun to obsess over weekly changes, whether ENSO or Arctic sea ice or whatever. That doesn't make it any less pointless, though. Still, I believe in letting people have their fun. Anything I get tired of reading I can just skip right over.


This is a weather blog for gosh sakes. In the absence of any local tropical entertainment anything weather related is good.
Quoting 130. Jedkins01:




The WPC is kind of odd, it GFS has more rain in Florida and less further north in the long term so does the ecmwf and much higher PW's across north and Central FL as further north. Not sure how the WPC does these progs or why since it always seems to show lower qpf here than the model consensus does.


If the WPC was right, the Tampa Bay area June total would have ranged from 2-4 inches based on there 1 week outlooks, but in reality it was anywhere from 6-10 inches with some local areas a less or more with an average of about 8 inches.


Agree both models even ENS members are showing the wettest signal over FL and not further north. It seems as if the WPC has done is typical broad brush effect until the event gets closer.
Quoting 123. schwankmoe:



yes i guess, if you don't have anything better to do.

Almost everyone has some interest that could qualify as "obsession". We have several people here "obsessed" with gardening, for example. I find many of their posts interesting, despite having a brown thumb. (Seriously, I have killed plastic plants!) Some I don't find that interesting and skip.

So, yes, those interested in ENSO, ASI, gardening, or whatever could do something different with their time. "Better" I think is a matter of personal taste best left to the individual.

And with that, I'll drop it.
will the shift in the overall weather pattern in the se us increase rain chances for the west carib?
just looking for someone with some info as our weather folks dont seem to really want to forcast.
Quoting 135. rmbjoe1954:



This is a weather blog for gosh sakes. In the absence of any local tropical entertainment anything weather related is good.


If its not GW then anything else is unwanted by many. Just the way it is and i will post what I feel and people can choose to ignore as they feel. That's how think. Anyways out for the day gotta go! See u tomorrow guys.
Quoting 136. StormTrackerScott:



Agree both models even ENS members are showing the wettest signal over FL and not further north. It seems as if the WPC has done is typical broad brush effect until the event gets closer.


But I see less rain for the coast and more for the interior.
Quoting 115. LargoFl:


CNN)—An area the size of Connecticut has burned in Alaska this year, the state said. That's 3.1 million acres, a loss that comes during one of the hottest periods in decades.

The state set a new record for the earliest day with a temperature above 90, when the mercury hit 91 in the town of Eagle on May 23 -- 30 degrees hotter than the average high temperature in May, according to the National Weather Service.



many of the fires in Alaska and Canada are not fought with fire fighters unless it is threating a town/village as most are too remote to get personnel in to it ..
Quoting 131. Envoirment:



It's been upgraded to Typhoon Linfa with 65kts. But the JTWC don't update their forecast until 21z (They update at 3z, 9z, 15z & 21z) so they'll likely update the forecast at 21z and may upgrade the strength further.


Thanks for that! I still believe that it was a typhoon this morning, though.
Everyone should check out the new sexy look on Levi Cowan site--->Link
Quoting 127. Jedkins01:



It seems like we flip flop with rainfall, I didn't get nearly as much as you in May, only 4.95 inches, while you had more than 10, in June I had 14.96, while you had much less than me, now you're getting dumped on but Ive only had 1.03 in the last 9 days, and the last day I had rain was the 4th.

Thankfully the ground is still wet and the grass is still growing like crazy thanks to a really wet June, hopefully we'll be "back in the groove" soon here. We've still been getting a lot of thunder the last several days, just the rain cores are missing.

One thing I've noticed is every time we switch back to an east flow, coverage goes down. Again, it's much to do I believe to the drier than normal tropical Atlantic and cooler than average water. Whereas the gulf flow brings high coverage thanks to deeper moisture, warmer water, and greater instability.

As much as I love the southeast flow because we get stronger thunderstorms, this year is an odd year in that usually the southeast flow brings the deepest moisture here, but this year it's bringing in the driest air. With that said, it might be better for the state as a whole to see a west flow more given when I mention above, especially drought stricken southeast FL.


I don’t have the exact number in front of me, but I finished June between 5” and 5.50”. I’m up to 2.45”ish for July so far (again, don’t have the exact number in front of me), plus whatever we finish with today. If you look at the radar, storms keep refiring in the same area of Tampa, almost like a training event. Over the past 3 years, July has been my wettest month, usually by a good margin.
It is July isn't it? Haven't made it into the 60s today in S C IL. At least the persistent rain has been rather light, had slightly over a half inch in the gauge at lunch. Should rebound to normal this weekend as heat & humidity appear.

They had to open the flood gates on Lake of the Ozarks last week, closed Truman's & imposed No Wake/Idle lake wide prior to 4th weekend, though dropped it enough to allow full run by 4th. Heading there in week & half, hope no more major rains before then. We're not too far from several establishments if have to idle, but that's not why we haul three dingys down there :)
Quoting 137. Misanthroptimist:


Almost everyone has some interest that could qualify as "obsession". We have several people here "obsessed" with gardening, for example. I find many of their posts interesting, despite having a brown thumb. (Seriously, I have killed plastic plants!) Some I don't find that interesting and skip.

So, yes, those interested in ENSO, ASI, gardening, or whatever could do something different with their time. "Better" I think is a matter of personal taste best left to the individual.

And with that, I'll drop it.


Exactly!
Quoting 143. Gearsts:

Everyone should check out the new sexy look on Levi Cowan site--->Link


Yeah.. Looks nice. I like his forecasts too.

I expect one day to see him on TV on a daily basis.
Quoting 132. Kenfa03:


Could you explain what is keeping the majority of Texas dry and when whatever it is might change to a wetter pattern? Thanks.

Hi, Kenfa03 - looks like Scott's out, so I hope you don't mind me trying to answer your question.

This excerpt from the NWS-San Antonio's AFD explains it:

"Moisture should continue to retreat westward tonight...and
significant rain chances should end for a while after today. The
upper low should curve northward and eventually amplify the upper
ridge into much of the central US...but another couple days of
good Summer breezes is expected over Texas while the faster zonal/SW
flow aloft takes time to retreat northward. The well mixed Gulf
influenced low level air should keep daytime the warming trend
very slow in the short-term.

Long term (thursday night through tuesday)...
medium range model guidances suggest a drop-off trend in low
level wind speeds by Friday...and this should lead to a slight
acceleration of the warming trend for maxes and also enable
slightly lower nighttime mins. Model agreement is very good on a
continued ridge build-up over Texas/nm over the weekend into early
next week. Other than a few sea-breeze over the far southeast
counties...rain chances will be hard to come by through the
extended forecast. As much drier air settles beneath the strong
upper ridge...
"
Quoting 113. pipelines:



Don't feel bad Fabian, I live in Birmingham Alabama and we have been rated the most tornado prone city in the world. I've never seen a tornado, though I have had some small debris fall on me right after a tornado lifted before getting to my house.


Here in Mobile we're not supposed to be tornado prone but we've had 3 in the last 5 years and several during Katrina. Strange how that works out.
From UCS:

The Evidence For How Fossil Fuel Companies Misled Us For Decades

By Ken Kimmell, president

July 8, 2015

My parents instilled two core values in me—tell the truth and if your actions harm others, take responsibility for them. These messages were reinforced when I went to law school and practiced law for almost twenty years; honesty and responsibility are bedrock principles in the law, and significant damage awards are often imposed on those who breach them.

Today, UCS is releasing a report titled “The Climate Deception Dossiers.” This report is a sobering exposé of how major fossil fuel companies have failed to abide by these axioms. They have neither been honest about, nor taken responsibility for, the harms they have caused by extracting and putting into commerce the fossil fuels that now place our climate in grave danger. Instead, either directly or indirectly, through trade and industry groups, they have sown doubt about the science of climate change and repeatedly fought efforts to cut the emissions of dangerous heat-trapping gases.

Video: The Climate Deception Dossiers: Internal Fossil Fuel Industry Memos Reveal Decades of Disinformation

You’ll see clear evidence that these companies knew for decades that the burning of fossil fuels causes temperature increase. As one of Mobil’s own scientists says in a 1995 memo, “The scientific basis for the Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and cannot be denied.” (Emphasis added.)

You’ll see that despite this knowledge several of the companies banded together to sow doubt in the public mind. They stated in 1998, for example—even after that internal warning from their own scientists—that “victory will be achieved” when “[a]verage citizens ’understand’ (recognize) uncertainties in climate science; recognition of uncertainties becomes part of the ‘conventional wisdom.’”

You’ll see that they executed on this strategy by secretly funding contrarian, climate-denying scientists (and reserving the right to approve their work before it was released), creating faux grassroots groups to oppose policies to cut our dependence on fossil fuels, and even forging letters making it appear that well-established groups opposed policies such as the national cap-and-trade bill that was defeated a few years ago.

Read more >>
110. HurricaneAndre


the name would be assigned by RSMC Honolulu. The next name is "ELA".
Quoting 135. rmbjoe1954:



This is a weather blog for gosh sakes. In the absence of any local tropical entertainment anything weather related is good.


It's very hot today.


Only signal warning #1 is raised for Hong Kong for "STS Linfa"
From AGU:

STRATOSPHERIC ACCOMPLICE FOR SANTA ANA WINDS AND CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES

8 July 2015, Joint Release

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Southern Californians and writers love to blame the hot, dry Santa Ana winds for tense, ugly moods, and the winds have long been associated with destructive wildfires.

Now, a new study finds that on occasion, the winds have an accomplice with respect to fires, at least: Natural atmospheric events known as stratospheric intrusions, which bring extremely dry air from the upper atmosphere down to the surface, adding to the fire danger effects of the Santa Anas, and exacerbating some air pollution episodes.

The findings suggest that forecast models with the capacity to predict stratospheric intrusions may provide valuable lead time for agencies to issue air quality alerts and fire weather warnings, or to reallocate firefighting resources before these extreme events occur.
Full article


Satellite image of the smoke on 2 May 2013, the first day of the Springs Fire northwest of Los Angeles. Credit: NASA
Quoting 153. Grothar:


It's very hot today.

Quoting 158. Grothar:




I hope you can take out your yellow crayon after next week if that ULL east of the Bahamas goes over So. Fl.
Ice cave collapses in Washington. (I'm sure most of you have seen this)



Link
Does anybody think it may be possible in the future to have massive heat ridges that build in Siberia, Alaska, and/or northern Canada and move south into the United States? With arctic amplification, in the future, there shouldn't be much difference in temps between those places and places much further south. By 2100, I'm sure temps in the 90s and 100s will be common there in the summertime. We're already seeing big heat waves in those places even today. And with such a large expanse of dry land, it could probably generate some very impressive heat that might from time to time penetrate into the U.S. By 2100, the only difference between a summertime continental polar airmass and a continental tropical airmass will be the polar airmass is drier, but it will be every bit as hot - or even hotter.
Quoting 153. Grothar:



It's very hot today.


It was jurrassic hot today...
Quoting 159. rmbjoe1954:



I hope you can take out your yellow crayon after next week if that ULL east of the Bahamas goes over So. Fl.


Hey, Joe,

This piddly little thing???




Too much dry air. A trough will probably pick it up. The MJO is all wrong. SAL will kill it.
164. JRRP
Quoting 50. Gearsts:

Poll
What will be the peak for the 2015 El nino:
A.Weak El nino
B.Moderate El nino
C.Strong El nino
D.Super El nino
E.Jurassic El nino
F.Ice age La nina

C
what is the jurassic el nino ?
Quoting 164. JRRP:


C
what is the jurassic el nino ?
Eric Blake hype.

Looks like a shift in the pattern for SE Florida next week which could bring some much needed rain. Finnally!
Early season El-Nino has delivered the wettest month in US history, a typhoon trifecta right now in the WPAC, record heat waves in many varying places, and the peak is yet to come.
169. bwi
T-showers rumbling through DC; hopefully they will pass south of me on College Park on the MD side.

Buoy roughly 1/3 of the way between Barrow AK and the north pole shot off a great pic today. Warm high pressure currently settling over most of the Arctic should lead to sunny skies, expansion of melt ponds, and spectacular imagery from the webcams!
glaciers??? They melt. Thats what they do. Since the Ice Age.
Quoting 165. Gearsts:

Eric Blake hype.
HYPE??? Would a scientist stoop to hype? :-)
Everyone have a safe weather evening.  I will see Yall tomorrow and gonna be looking at two things the next few days a) how the Typhoons headed towards Asia/China fare/impact and b) my kids 8th grade science book so I can better understand all this recent talk regarding the Pleistocene and Jurassic eras.....Been over 30 years since I took physical geography and anthropology and it sounds like I need to brush up.......................Watching the new jurassic park movie is not going too cut it.
From PIK:

Record-breaking heavy rainfall events increased under global warming

07/08/2015 - Heavy rainfall events setting ever new records have been increasing strikingly in the past thirty years. While before 1980, multi-decadal fluctuations in extreme rainfall events are explained by natural variability, a team of scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research detected a clear upward trend in the past few decades towards more unprecedented daily rainfall events. They find the worldwide increase to be consistent with rising global temperatures which are caused by greenhouse-gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. Short-term torrential rains can lead to high-impact floodings.

[...]

The link to climate change: warmer air can hold more water

While a statistical analysis of course cannot provide direct physical cause-effect relations, the scientists compared their findings to existing knowledge about how much more water can be stored in the atmosphere when temperatures rise, as given by the well-known Clausius-Clapeyron equation. This additional moisture can be released during short-term heavy rainfall events. The scientists show that the observed increase in unprecedented heavy rainfall events generally fits with this thermodynamically expected increase under global warming.

"One out of ten record-breaking rainfall events observed globally in the past thirty years can only be explained if the long-term warming is taken into account," says co-author Dim Coumou. "For the last year studied, 2010, it is even one event out of four, as the trend is upward".

Up to now, studies could add up to only medium confidence on how human induced greenhouse gases have contributed to changes in heavy precipitation events at the global and regional scale. The new analysis now helps to fill this research gap. Building on previous work on extreme precipitation, it is the first to study worldwide observational data of record-breaking daily rainfall events in this context.

[...]

Complete article >>

Article: Lehmann, J., Coumou, D., Frieler, K. (2015): Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming. Climatic Change [DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y]
All three typhoons organizing this afternoon:

Got bounced. Have absolutely no idea why. I didn't think I said anything or did anything that violated policy. But I guess that's what it is....
Quoting 175. TropicalAnalystwx13:

All three typhoons organizing this afternoon:


Yep
Quoting 160. Grothar:

Ice cave collapses in Washington. (I'm sure most of you have seen this)



Link


Foolish to climb inside when temps are warm. It is not solid like a glacier or even a long existing snow field. It looks like an agglomeration which no cohesive structure.
This!!Link
Quoting 175. TropicalAnalystwx13:

All three typhoons organizing this afternoon:
Quoting 176. JustDucky251:

Got bounced. Have absolutely no idea why. I didn't think I said anything or did anything that violated policy. But I guess that's what it is....


First rule of fight club.
Quoting 179. Gearsts:

This!!Link


Pretty impressive. Glad I'm in the GOM.
Quoting 177. Gearsts:

Yep



Yes!!! One of my favorite movies...despite the meteorological impossibilities.

Quoting 176. JustDucky251:

Got bounced. Have absolutely no idea why. I didn't think I said anything or did anything that violated policy. But I guess that's what it is....


Don't worry. Happens to the best of us. I've been bounced three times, could only figure one of them.
Quoting 176. JustDucky251:

Got bounced. Have absolutely no idea why. I didn't think I said anything or did anything that violated policy. But I guess that's what it is....

Hey, Ducky - just a guess here - did you quote a post that may have gotten removed? Looks like you're not the only one that got a temp ban.

Anywho, its 92 here in Baton Rouge. Got an interesting PIS with my weather:

Public information statement...

The National marine fisheries service announces that federal waters from 9 to
200 nautical miles off Texas will open to shrimp trawling beginning 30 minutes
after official sunset, local time, on July 15, 2015. The opening of federal
waters to shrimp fishing off Texas coincides with the state of Texas opening its
state waters to shrimp fishing. Direct any questions to the National marine
fisheries service at 727-824-5305
.

First time I've seen that.
Quoting 185. LAbonbon:


Hey, Ducky - just a guess here - did you quote a post that may have gotten removed? Looks like you're not the only one that got a temp ban.

Anywho, its 92 here in Baton Rouge. Got an interesting PIS with my weather:

Public information statement...

The National marine fisheries service announces that federal waters from 9 to
200 nautical miles off Texas will open to shrimp trawling beginning 30 minutes
after official sunset, local time, on July 15, 2015. The opening of federal
waters to shrimp fishing off Texas coincides with the state of Texas opening its
state waters to shrimp fishing. Direct any questions to the National marine
fisheries service at 727-824-5305
.

First time I've seen that.


Very interesting PIS. Maybe they don't always coincide??
maybe a super El-Nino
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico later this week. Some
development of this system is expected this weekend and early next
week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

2. An area of low pressure is expected to develop several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur over the
next couple of days. Some gradual development of this system is
possible through this weekend and into early next week while it
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

eastern North Pacific will get buzy soon
This from the NHC weather discussion this pm. Thought it was a bit redundant. Think there will be any "low level vorticity?

LOOKING AHEAD...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT INTERACTING
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS HELPING FOR A REGION OF ENHANCED
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL VORTICITY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WILL
HELP TO PROPAGATE THIS REGION OF ENHANCED SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY WESTWARD. THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT
DRIVEN BY THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THIS AREA OF
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL VORTICITY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE
VORTICITY AND LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTICITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL HELP FOR A DEEPER AREA OF ENHANCED VORTICITY. THIS AREA OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 16N97W. FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE INTERACTION FOR TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR A TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO DEVELOP.
Quoting 186. JustDucky251:



Very interesting PIS. Maybe they don't always coincide??

No clue whatsoever. Thought it was interesting that I got a fisheries notice when I checked my weather :)
From the Miami NWS Disco...I certainly hope so...

THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO GET SHUNTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REGION EACH DAY.
Those will be fetching some pretty strong low latitude westerlies against the normal trade wind flow, helping ramp up El Nino.
Quoting 180. Neapolitan:


How many hurricanes have you experienced?
A0-2
B3-5
C6-8
D9+
Me C which were Ivan,Cindy,Katrina,Rita,Ike,Isaac.
And I wouldnt be surprised that a major will hit the us this year. I guess the quietness of the Atlantic is giving a sign that something is coming this year. Also the Atlantic is priming for it.
11 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM PDT FOR
SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY...

AT 306 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE CREST FROM TIOGA PASS NORTHWARD TO TWIN LAKES.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUED SOUTH OF TIOGA PASS.

ROCK SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG HIGHWAY 120 EAST OF TIOGA PASS AS
HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THIS AREA. MOTORISTS PLANNING ON TRAVEL
INTO YOSEMITE FROM LEE VINING SHOULD CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS AND DELAY
TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS END.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION! RUNOFF WILL QUICKLY FLOOD LOW
LYING AREAS...STREETS...STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS. TRAVEL ON
HIGHWAY 120 IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.

That's a beautiful route, usually closed in winter due to deep snow. Massive granite, deep canyons...I can only imagine what can happen when these heavy thunderstorms rumble thru. The contributing upper low is now meandering just off of the coast between Santa Cruz and Half Moon Bay, helping enhance the monsoonal flow to the east.
NOAA reports last month was the 2nd warmest and 9th wettest June on record for the United States.
So we were hot and wet...

Not good as that could translate into breaking heat records when we dry out.
Quoting 191. GeoffreyWPB:

From the Miami NWS Disco...I certainly hope so...

THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO GET SHUNTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REGION EACH DAY.


I've been reading that since April. Geoff, is it still dry by you?
198...Very much so Gro. I remember the days not so many years ago that I would sit on the patio, looks out towards the west and watch the building storms move in. Seemed very normal back then. Not so much as of late.
Quoting 194. HurricaneAndre:

And I wouldnt be surprised that a major will hit the us this year. I guess the quietness of the Atlantic is giving a sign that something is coming this year. Also the Atlantic is priming for it.


I'm sorry, but given the fact that two days ago you claimed that we wouldn't get any more major hurricanes in the Atlantic this year, this is hilarious. If you don't expect any more majors, okay. If you do expect them, okay. But please, pick a side. Consistency is key.
New Forecast-at-a-Glance icons have been implemented. Have to get used to the "double vision" ones as I would call them.


Quoting 193. HurricaneAndre:

How many hurricanes have you experienced?
A0-2
B3-5
C6-8
D9+
Me C which were Ivan,Cindy,Katrina,Rita,Ike,Isaac.


A) 0. Hurricanes can't make it to Tennessee. I did experience TS/TD Katrina in 2005, don't understand what NOLA had a problem with, was just a gentle breeze.
Quoting 152. HadesGodWyvern:
the name would be assigned by RSMC Honolulu. The next name is "ELA".

"ELA", really, lol? Message from a parallel universe in Europe: "Emergency Liquidity Assistance" currently is the only source which keeps some cash flowing out of ATMs in Greece. Must be a message from heaven, dooh ...
Cant help but wonder how popular surfing is in China.....The soup is ripe for carving...:)

205. beell
Quoting 174. Xandra:



The link to climate change: warmer air can hold more water



Unless you were to ask Alistair B. Fraser

Allow me to introduce some science based trivia to the subject.
:)

Be very, very careful what you put into that head,
because you will never, ever get it out.
Thomas Cardinal Wolsey (1471-1530)
Quoting 205. beell:



Unless you were to ask Alistair B. Fraser

Allow me to introduce some science based trivia to the subject.
:)

Be very, very careful what you put into that head,
because you will never, ever get it out.
Thomas Cardinal Wolsey (1471-1530)



I believe he said that to Mary, Queen of Scots.
Quoting 170. islander101010:
Glaciers??? They melt. Thats what they do. Since the Ice Age.
And of course, as anyone who is not ignorant of science knows, the vast majority of the glaciers around the world have been melting much more rapidly since the onset of anthropogenic global warming.

209. beell
Quoting 207. Grothar:



I believe he said that to Mary, Queen of Scots.


I could not argue that point with you, Gro. It was before my time.

He should have advised her to be careful with where she lay her head.

Quoting 206. Grothar:


Greetings Gro...Hot on Saturday at 92 degrees. Sunday is also 92 degrees but just sez humid..I thought it should say Hot and Humid...since it will feel warmer if the humidity is higher on Sunday then Saturday. It shows 92 degrees on Monday too...But since thunder is written on there, it wont be hot.....pft
As strong El Nino looms, cloud seeding gets tailwind
Source: Reuters - Wed, 8 Jul 2015 06:33 GMT
Quoting 205. beell:



Unless you were to ask Alistair B. Fraser

Allow me to introduce some science based trivia to the subject.
:)

Be very, very careful what you put into that head,
because you will never, ever get it out.
Thomas Cardinal Wolsey (1471-1530)

Something to consider in regard to any head. Unless you know that head inside and out....metaphorically speaking...
Quoting 186. JustDucky251:



Very interesting PIS. Maybe they don't always coincide??


I guess mods don't have a sense of humor either and took out my dinosaur.
Precip anomalies for the US using the Top 5 El-Nino's. Needless to say it looks like FL won't have a Dry Season this year infact this Winter could be wetter than the Summer across FL.

Quoting 219. StormTrackerScott:

Precip anomalies for the US using the Top 5 El-Nino's. Needless to say it looks like FL won't have a Dry Season this year infact this Winter could be wetter than the Summer across FL.





what dos that mean for CA and all so could you see CA getting a wet early start too are rainy season with the hurricane in the W PAC getting in too the JET and heading for CA they norml start doing that in OCT
Chan-hom continues munchic jurassic number of dry air. Hope it will keep sucking that dry air and die, still what a weird storm.


While El-Nino is moving toward 2C now the Atlantic Basin remains is closed for business.

Quoting 220. Tazmanian:




what dos that mean for CA and all so could you see CA getting a wet early start too are rainy season with the hurricane in the W PAC getting in too the JET and heading for CA they norml start doing that in OCT


San Francisco with over 30" of rain this Winter?
Quoting 223. StormTrackerScott:



San Francisco with over 30" of rain this Winter?



sweet last time they got that is with the 1983/84 EL nino
Quoting 224. Tazmanian:




sweet last time they got that is with the 1983/84 EL nino


It's possible Taz. Drought to flood you watch. I called this El-Nino just like I am calling California has a exceptionally wet Winter! I say take it to bank.
Quoting 224. Tazmanian:




sweet last time they got that is with the 1983/84 EL nino
Evening Taz...it was the 82/83 El Nino...sir...:)
Quoting 216. riverat544:

I see your Nobel Laureate and raise you 36 Nobel Laureates:


My Lord thats a lot of N.L's.....If i were in i,d fold...pressure is jus too great.
Quoting 193. HurricaneAndre:

How many hurricanes have you experienced?
A0-2
B3-5
C6-8
D9+
Me C which were Ivan,Cindy,Katrina,Rita,Ike,Isaac.
D 9+

I've lived on the Gulf Coast a loonnngg time.

How long? I got a day off from 6th grade in Houston for Hurricane Carla. Alicia was the worst, though. No power in the September heat and humidity for nearly 3 weeks after that one.

Most of my hurricane experience has been in lower Alabama, where I've lived since 1990. In one stretch, ending with Katrina in 2005, tropical cyclones knocked out my power 7 of 9 years on the Eastern Shore of Mobile Bay.
Quoting 227. tampabaymatt:



You got banned for posting a pic of a dinosaur?


I guess so. The one I posted earlier. I guess whoever was the on duty mod they didn't have a sense of humor.
Quoting 225. StormTrackerScott:



It's possible Taz. Drought to flood you watch. I called this El-Nino just like I am calling California has a exceptionally wet Winter! I say take it to bank.


The question is Jeff, are you more certain now than you were in 2013? Honest question.
Dramatic video of the tornado in northeastern Italy:



Unfortunate news from Italian media:
One dead, 30 injured, 100 displaced, rofless houses, extensive damage

------------------

In any case, good night everyone ...
Quoting 232. GeoffreyWPB:



The question is Jeff, are you more certain now than you were in 2013? Honest question.

Quoting 234. tampabaymatt:



Funny how some on here post pics to practically all of there posts that have nothing to do with weather and don't get banned. But, you do it once and get banned. The "moderating" on this site is a total joke.


Jurassic Park was just released a few weeks ago so I thought it would be a funny pic given it was used by Eric Blake referring to this upcoming El-Nino.
FWIW, the NWS Tampa branch is calling for a "severe" El Nino.
Quoting 232. GeoffreyWPB:



The question is Jeff, are you more certain now than you were in 2013? Honest question.


Strongest WWB on record for Summer and 2 strongest MJO's ever have all but sealed the deal.
Quoting 193. HurricaneAndre:

How many hurricanes have you experienced?
A0-2
B3-5
C6-8
D9+
Me C which were Ivan,Cindy,Katrina,Rita,Ike,Isaac.


A - 1 - Hurricane Catarina

Nangka looking much better than yesterday. Still a Category 4, might hit Category 5 later today.

Hurricane Kate, November 1985

This Hurricane hit Florida in July 1933
Quoting 231. StormTrackerScott:



I guess so. The one I posted earlier. I guess whoever was the on duty mod they didn't have a sense of humor.

Surely you jest?
Quoting 246. Kenfa03:


You're walking on thin ice around here.


Yeah, most of the hardcore science deniers have learned spreading their disinformation on a science related blog doesn't play well. Go figure.
Quoting 178. JustDucky251:

Foolish to climb inside when temps are warm. It is not solid like a glacier or even a long existing snow field. It looks like an agglomeration which no cohesive structure.

According to the wikipedia article it forms from avalanche debris. That can't be very stable.
Quoting 223. StormTrackerScott:



San Francisco with over 30" of rain this Winter?

I just hope it's cold enough to put plenty of snow in the Sierras (and Cascades up where I live). That store of snow that slowly melts over the summer is critical to late summer water flows.

Hurricane Allen sure did have a nice eye!
Quoting 243. MoltenIce:


Nangka looking much better than yesterday. Still a Category 4, might hit Category 5 later today.


145 mph now 00z

Mitch the Monster! Wow! A real Wopper if there ever was one.
Enjoy this landscape. It is the first time we see three typhoons simultaneously in the Pacific Northwest since October 24th 1994 and the earliest outbreak of 3 typhoons ever recorded, smashed the old record of July 10th 1972.







Source: Link
Link
Quoting 249. Naga5000:



Yeah, most of the hardcore science deniers have learned spreading their disinformation on a science related blog doesn't play well. Go figure.

You seem to be uptight but surely you saw the humor in that. Thin ice. Get it?
Quoting 241. Patrap:




OMG - it's "the chart" .... glad I don't have a basement to walk into ....
Quoting 257. Kenfa03:


You seem to be uptight but surely you saw the humor in that. Thin ice. Get it?


I got it. I'd argue he's (help4u) is holding a blowtorch to his own ice shelf...very dangerous proposition, but ya know...we have freedoms in this country, even if the big man upstairs (as quoted in Naga's post) tells him how foolish he is.
help4u only posts. Does not answer responses. Except when it comes to his keyboard.
Watch 12N/81W as the next AOI in the SW Caribbean, shear is high for now but decreasing throughout the day, just my take!
JMA being conservative with Nangka and Linfa.
NANGKA 2015JUL09 003200 6.6 913.0 +2.2 129.6 6.4 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF 12.36 -72.71 EYE 17 IR 59.9 17.08 -146.71

Tokyo Advance Dvorak Technique


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #49
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NANGKA (1511)
9:00 AM JST July 9 2015
==========================
Near Mariana Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nangka (935 hPa) located at 17.0N 146.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
240 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 18.3N 143.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 18.7N 141.3E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 18.8N 140.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #59
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LINFA (1510)
9:00 AM JST July 9 2015
==========================
In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Linfa (975 hPa) located at 22.6N 117.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 22.2N 112.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Southern China
48 HRS: 21.7N 111.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Southern China
72 HRS: 21.5N 111.5E - Tropical Depression Overland Southern China

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #73
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (1509)
9:00 AM JST July 9 2015
==========================
450 KM South Southeast of Naha (Okinawa)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Chan-Hom (965 hPa) located at 22.5N 129.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
300 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
240 NM from the center in western quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 25.6N 124.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Northwest Of Miyako-jima
48 HRS: 28.1N 121.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South Of Shanghai (China)
72 HRS: 30.6N 121.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Central China
We finally got some decent rain in the
land of the Midnight sun
and endless fun.

Even got our outdoor open flame, burn ban, removed.

Today is an important day here in Anchorage. It is the first day in about 4 weeks the sun will finally set completely. We should get down to astronomical twilight tonight.
President Obama is only going by what the vast majority of Scientists ( about 97%, I think) according to data and advanced scientific evidence suggest, he does not claim to be a Scientist, he goes by the information handed to him and as Leader of the free World trys to rally solutions to help with potentially devastating consequences decades in the making!
Pretty low pressure (extratropical cyclone tomorrow) here in South Brazil:








Porto Alegre current informations now:
15,3ºC
1009 mbar falling slow
already dropped 24,8 mm of rain today.
Quoting 223. StormTrackerScott:



San Francisco with over 30" of rain this Winter?
Or not, as the case may be -- the rules of the game are changing and the playing field is no longer level. Just about anything can happen -- and probably will.
Quoting 267. stormpetrol:

President Obama is only going by what the vast majority of Scientists ( about 97%, I think) according to data and advanced scientific evidence suggest, he does not claim to be a Scientist, he goes by the information handed to him and as Leader of the free World trys to rally solutions to help with potentially devastating consequences decades in the making!


You mean to tell me that when we send up our rockets he actually didn't make them himself? Wow, talk about disappointment.

Nangka.
Quoting 249. Naga5000:



Yeah, most of the hardcore science deniers have learned spreading their disinformation on a science related blog doesn't play well. Go figure.

Particularly when they post stuff a second time after it has been roundly refuted the first time. Trolling isn't very popular anywhere.
LINFA


Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory
Bulletin issued at 09:45 HKT 09/Jul/2015

The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62 km/h are expected.

At 10:00 a.m. HKT, Typhoon Linfa (965 hPa) was estimated to be about 250 kilometers east of Hong Kong (22.7N 116.6E) and is forecast to move west at about 16 km/h in the general direction of the vicinity of the Pearl River Estuary.

As Linfa moves closer to the coast of Guangdong, Hong Kong will start to have squally showers with local winds strengthening gradually. There will also be swells. Members of the public should stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

According to the present forecast track, Linfa is expected to come closest to Hong Kong tonight and tomorrow morning. Local winds will then strengthen further. The Observatory will consider whether to issue the No. 8 Gale or Storm Signal this afternoon and tonight depending on Linfa's movement and intensity changes.



Typhoon 11w (Nangka), located approximately 125 nm north-
northeast of Saipan, has tracked west-northwestward at 10 knots
over the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height at 090000z
is 40 feet.
if you are a paid member for the Euro then please go visit the Euro Enso plume as it is historic. Never seen a forecast put out by the Euro as drastic as this. Damm! Again go look if you have access.


Ben Noll@BenNollWeather
44 of the 51 (86%) #ECMWF ensemble members from today's seasonal run show the strongest #ElNino in modern history coming this winter.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



!!! Considering thermal-viscous collapse of the Greenland ice sheet

*** World Suffering Surge in Extreme Rainfall Due to Climate Change

New Horizons: Pluto map shows 'whale' of a feature



!!! Quantum leap taken in measuring greenhouse effect: New technique for analysing satellite data will allow scientists to predict more accurately how much the Earth will warm as a result of carbon dioxide emissions.

Surfer shaped waves found in near Earth space



!!! Volcanic eruptions that changed human history: Researchers find new evidence that large eruptions were responsible for cold temperature extremes recorded since early Roman times



* Biggest explosions in the universe powered by strongest magnets

!!! Gene therapy restores hearing in deaf mice: Proof of principle study takes a step toward precision medicine for genetic hearing loss



* Seafloor hot springs a significant source of iron in the oceans

!!! Record breaking heavy rainfall events increased under global warming

* Stratospheric accomplice for Santa Ana winds and California wildfires

*** Barnett shale research raises new concerns about methane emissions

*** A black hole under the gravitational lens: An unusual observation method uncovers processes near the event horizon of a distant, massive monster



*** Bricks to build an Earth found in every planetary system

* Eyeing up Earthlike planets



UK's green power industry loses tax exemption, shares dive

Wendiceratops: Horned Dinosaur Fossil Adds Hooks to Evolutionary Tale



Bolivian miners look to Pope Francis (video)

Africa: Will Africa Be Heard At Climate Science Talks?
I realize that it is illogical and goes against climate science, but I keep thinking, what if this El Nino never completely goes away?
Quoting 225. StormTrackerScott:



It's possible Taz. Drought to flood you watch. I called this El-Nino just like I am calling California has a exceptionally wet Winter! I say take it to bank.


I called it first back in 2012.
0.032 inch since july 1st... 0.8in for june... 0.9 for may... WOW this is getting ridiculous!
That was some storm. I'm pretty sure the winds were approaching hurricane force numbers. I don't say that lightly. The goats now have some yummy cottonwood windfall to chomp on.

Will upload photos in a bit. No damage here, but power was out for an hour or so.
Quoting 278. SunnyDaysFla:

I realize that it is illogical and goes against climate science, but I keep thinking, what if this El Nino never completely goes away?
Seven trillion sardines will die.
Quoting 280. CaribBoy:

0.032 inch since july 1st... 0.8in for june... 0.9 for may... WOW this is getting ridiculous!


And this time... ALL islands of the Lesser Antilles are suffering, even the mountainous and larger central islands...

Let's pray for a wet LA NINA year next year...
The reservoirs in California are ready. Plenty of room.
Quoting 276. StormTrackerScott:

if you are a paid member for the Euro then please go visit the Euro Enso plume as it is historic. Never seen a forecast put out by the Euro as drastic as this. Damm! Again go look if you have access.


Ben Noll@BenNollWeather
44 of the 51 (86%) #ECMWF ensemble members from today's seasonal run show the strongest #ElNino in modern history coming this winter.

Hurricane Coverage of Hurricane Elena 1985 radar images from the NWS. ADQ old Apalachicola NWS and NPA Pensacola radar used to be at that military base.

Link
Quoting 281. nonblanche:

That was some storm. I'm pretty sure the winds were approaching hurricane force numbers. I don't say that lightly. The goats now have some yummy cottonwood windfall to chomp on.

Will upload photos in a bit. No damage here, but power was out for an hour or so.

Couple of wind reports on SPC's site:

2305 63 FALLON CHURCHILL NV 3948 11878 63 MPH GUST RECORDED BY WEATHER OBSERVER AT NAVAL AIR STATION FALLON. (REV)

2142 UNK RENO WASHOE NV 3954 11982 TREE DAMAGE AT EVANS AND 5TH STREET NEAR CITY BUS TERMINAL IN RENO. TREES WERE 20 TO 30 FEET TALL AND LIMBS THAT WERE BROKEN OFF RANGED FROM 1 INCH TO 6 INCHES DIAMETER (REV)
Quoting 278. SunnyDaysFla:

I realize that it is illogical and goes against climate science, but I keep thinking, what if this El Nino never completely goes away?

Since that's never happened before it would be a surprise if it happened now. And thermodynamically it's probably impossible for that to happen. The El Nino/La Nina cycle is in some ways a of balancing heat content between the ocean and atmosphere and while it may change some in a globally warming world I wouldn't expect it to go away.
Quoting 264. stormpetrol:

Watch 12N/81W as the next AOI in the SW Caribbean, shear is high for now but decreasing throughout the day, just my take!
We shall see.
291. flsky
No! I called it in 2011!

Quoting 279. Bucsboltsfan:



I called it first back in 2012.
Quoting 291. flsky:

No! I called it in 2011!


No fighting. Lol. Let's all agree we all called it.


Looks stronger than 125 knots, to be honest.
Gee'

Who'd a thunk ?

Quoting 181. Xandra:

From UCS:

The Evidence For How Fossil Fuel Companies Misled Us For Decades

By Ken Kimmell, president

July 8, 2015

My parents instilled two core values in me—tell the truth and if your actions harm others, take responsibility for them. These messages were reinforced when I went to law school and practiced law for almost twenty years; honesty and responsibility are bedrock principles in the law, and significant damage awards are often imposed on those who breach them.

Today, UCS is releasing a report titled “The Climate Deception Dossiers.” This report is a sobering exposé of how major fossil fuel companies have failed to abide by these axioms. They have neither been honest about, nor taken responsibility for, the harms they have caused by extracting and putting into commerce the fossil fuels that now place our climate in grave danger. Instead, either directly or indirectly, through trade and industry groups, they have sown doubt about the science of climate change and repeatedly fought efforts to cut the emissions of dangerous heat-trapping gases.

Video: The Climate Deception Dossiers: Internal Fossil Fuel Industry Memos Reveal Decades of Disinformation

You’ll see clear evidence that these companies knew for decades that the burning of fossil fuels causes temperature increase. As one of Mobil’s own scientists says in a 1995 memo, “The scientific basis for the Greenhouse Effect and the potential impact of human emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2 on climate is well established and cannot be denied.” (Emphasis added.)

You’ll see that despite this knowledge several of the companies banded together to sow doubt in the public mind. They stated in 1998, for example—even after that internal warning from their own scientists—that “victory will be achieved” when “[a]verage citizens ’understand’ (recognize) uncertainties in climate science; recognition of uncertainties becomes part of the ‘conventional wisdom.’”

You’ll see that they executed on this strategy by secretly funding contrarian, climate-denying scientists (and reserving the right to approve their work before it was released), creating faux grassroots groups to oppose policies to cut our dependence on fossil fuels, and even forging letters making it appear that well-established groups opposed policies such as the national cap-and-trade bill that was defeated a few years ago.

Read more >>
Typhoon 09 W
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2015 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 22:57:06 N Lon : 128:55:33 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 952.3mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.2 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 34 km

Center Temp : -8.5C Cloud Region Temp : -57.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 131km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.4 degrees



Quoting 282. AdamReith:

Seven trillion sardines will die.


Good, never liked them anyways. Worst recommendation Grothar ever made to God. Ok, maybe not the worst. Mosquitoes, gnats (BaltimoreBrian, don't you dare), and chiggers are the worst. As are viruses.
Quoting 276. StormTrackerScott:

if you are a paid member for the Euro then please go visit the Euro Enso plume as it is historic. Never seen a forecast put out by the Euro as drastic as this. Damm! Again go look if you have access.


Ben Noll@BenNollWeather
44 of the 51 (86%) #ECMWF ensemble members from today's seasonal run show the strongest #ElNino in modern history coming this winter.



We need to ask gro if it will be bigger than any in ancient history.

BaltimoreBrian - Those are some disturbing articles you found today.
Quoting 296. Astrometeor:



Good, never liked them anyways. Worst recommendation Grothar ever made to God. Ok, maybe not the worst. Mosquitoes, gnats (BaltimoreBrian, don't you dare), and chiggers are the worst. As are viruses.


Whoever decided sardines were edible is who you should go after...

I agree about the Mosquitoes, NOSEEUMS, gnats, and chiggers. People think fleas and ticks are horrible, have never been attacked by chiggers...
299. flsky
I was being facetious.

Quoting 292. HurricaneAndre:

No fighting. Lol. Let's all agree we all called it.
I really like sardines. I will miss them. Godspeed little salty, tasty fish.
Quoting 281. nonblanche:

That was some storm. I'm pretty sure the winds were approaching hurricane force numbers. I don't say that lightly. The goats now have some yummy cottonwood windfall to chomp on.

Will upload photos in a bit. No damage here, but power was out for an hour or so.

NWS emergency radio broadcast out of Reno said the storm moving through had "a history of golf ball sized hail and winds in excess of 60 mph". My rain gage up here in Truckee had 0.43" in 20 minutes, hard rain and hail from .25 to .5 inches. 0.48 storm total.
Quoting 300. Naga5000:

I really like sardines. I will miss them. Godspeed little salty, tasty fish.

Mustard and saltines will be lonely.
Quoting 301. oldnewmex:


NWS emergency radio broadcast out of Reno said the storm moving through had "a history of golf ball sized hail and winds in excess of 60 mph". My rain gage up here in Truckee had 0.43" in 20 minutes, hard rain and hail from .25 to .5 inches. 0.48 storm total.


Rain is one thing... Don't like the hail though.
Quoting 302. aquak9:


Mustard and saltines will be lonely.


Mustard will still have somewhere to go. Hotdogs and Reuben sandwiches to name two.

How goes the weather in Florida by you, Aquak9? Hot enough out yet?

Quoting 296. Astrometeor:



Good, never liked them anyways. Worst recommendation Grothar ever made to God. Ok, maybe not the worst. Mosquitoes, gnats (BaltimoreBrian, don't you dare), and chiggers are the worst. As are viruses.

He also made the avocado pit too big.
Quoting 304. Dakster:



Rain is one thing... Don't like the hail though.

This one wasn't too bad - a few aspen leaves and flower petals on the ground, a couple holes in the rhubarb.

Two years ago was another story. Increasingly hard rain turned into hail; 35 minutes of sustained hail which stripped most leaves from any decidious trees, creamed my flower beds, FILLED UP drainages with hailstones. when it was over, an inch-and-a-half of hailstones covered my gently sloping driveway. While it was happening, the wife & I sat in chairs in the garage, watching the destruction while finishing a bottle of scotch.
Typhoon Nangka is nearing Category 5 intensity. After battling upper-level winds from Chan-hom and a trough to the system's northwest, the cyclone appears to have come up on top as it becomes more symmetrical instead of east-weighted.

Nangka is one of the more visually impressive cyclones I've seen. There's a special place in my heart for strong systems that still maintain their many spiral bands. :)

Not sure if these have been posted....

A tornado has killed 1 man and left 30 people injured in Cazzago of Dolo, on the Riviera del Brenta, Italy











Tornado, hell on the Brenta Riviera: one dead and thirty wounded.

Images courtesy of @ FRA_Franziska
310. 882MB
Nangka has really proven to me something, even though I have seen it before, but this one is really unique. What it has shown is an incredible amount of ''self-defense'', or how we would call it, ''When they create there own environment.'' If you look at the satellite loops below, you will be able to see Chan-hom's outflow smashing into the eastern semicircle of Nangka, and Nangka got this wall written in front of her. Clearly seeing on satellite, how once the outflow hits Nangka's barrier on the east side, you will see a split by the typhoon moving clouds due north on the northeast side, and to the south, on the southeast side.





Quoting 297. Dakster:



We need to ask gro if it will be bigger than any in ancient history.

BaltimoreBrian - Those are some disturbing articles you found today.


I haven't been too vocal on this el Nino, but I have posted a number of graphs and a few article. I do believe this will be one of the more memorable events. The worst I can remember was in 11,518 B.C. That's when I switched from sardines to anchovies.
Forecast el nino map

This is a remarkable presentation of the 1997-1998 el nino. The possibilities of another strong event are increasing.

Quoting 311. Grothar:



I haven't been too vocal on this el Nino, but I have posted a number of graphs and a few article. I do believe this will be one of the more memorable events. The worst I can remember was in 11,518 B.C. That's when I switched from sardines to anchovies.


That's called downgrading. You're supposed to upgrade. I heard cod was good...until New England overfished. Maybe alligator? Heard it tastes like chicken.
Quoting 313. Grothar:

This is a remarkable presentation of the 1997-1998 el nino. The possibilities of another strong event are increasing.



1997-1998 was a good one here in the mountains. Around 4 feet of snow fell right before Christmas. The mailbox out by the road was a barely noticable bump in a sea of white. I think it was new year's day when the rains started - warm rain, and lots of it. All that snow melted (along with much more which had previously fallen in the higher mountains) and headed down towards Reno. Donner Creek, which had been diverted to build a Shell gas station, regained its former glory as well as its former route, leaving giant gravel berms between the pump islands. A diversion dam on the Truckee River blew out. Logs and other debris were left behind on bridges across the river in downtown Reno. Good times.
Right now, both Linfa and Nangka seem to be impressing in terms of how they have battled adverse conditions and are now stronger than earlier thought. Nangka looks gorgeous. I'm sure Chan-Holm is far enough away that the epic circulation isn't a detriment... same with Linfa, it seems the much smaller circulation is taking advantage of friction, and high terrain shielding it from Chan-Holm's outflow?

All guesses really, I'm just observing... Another observation though: Chan-Holm is a bizarre, massive cyclone, what a monster.
Quoting 314. Astrometeor:



That's called downgrading. You're supposed to upgrade. I heard cod was good...until New England overfished. Maybe alligator? Heard it tastes like chicken.


I like Alligator... And yes, I have had it. The one I caught and ate was much better than the restaurant served. (R.J. Gators)

Pulled a 'gator hunting permit in 2001 and caught a 10' gator. We brought it to a processing place, sold the hide, and kept about a dozen pounds of meat. It tasted like, well, alligator.

Anyways, funny thing about El Niño and Alaska. The last two strongest events produced almost opposite weather anomalies in Alaska. So it could be way colder than normal or way hotter. It could not snow or it could snow in historic amounts.

This was published April 21, 2014...of particular note is the prediction of big Alaskan fires this summer...

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_t ense/2014/04/el_nino_2014_2015_what_the_weather_pa ttern_means_for_60_plus_places.html

http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/WF01007.htm
Right, just intermittent light-moderate showers passing through.

So here's the radar, about when the sky started getting dark.



Notice the rough center, where the two highways intersect? That's 50 and 95. See the little yellow comma at not quite 3:00 of the intersection? That little yellow smudge just exploded into a big red blob in about 15 minutes and slammed into us.

The clouds churned some...


With some really dramatically different heights of layers and darkness


Then I got the warning over my phone about the outflow front roaring at us, looked out and whoop, there it is.
In this shot, maybe an acre away, across the ditch. The photo doesn't capture how it had a faint yellowish tinge. Not green, thank goodness.


I felt the house shake. Housemate who's also seen Weather in his life, made sure the kids had their shoes on just in case. I saw the report, thanks, but it wouldn't surprise me that by the time the winds got from NAS to us they'd picked up speed. I've seen 60ish mph winds hit here, I'm pretty sure these topped that. Not by a lot, but some enough. It was pretty funny watching our cats decide "THIS AIN'T RIGHT" and come racing for home. Normally they're farm cats and have their hidey-hole spots, but not THIS time. :)

(Sorry, I had to fix the links. Should be fixed now.)
Quoting 50. Gearsts:

Poll
What will be the peak for the 2015 El nino:
A.Weak El nino
B.Moderate El nino
C.Strong El nino
D.Super El nino
E.Jurassic El nino
F.Ice age La nina


Hoping for "C"
Quoting 313. Grothar:

This is a remarkable presentation of the 1997-1998 el nino. The possibilities of another strong event are increasing.




Saying my prayers!
Quoting 316. oldnewmex:


1997-1998 was a good one here in the mountains. Around 4 feet of snow fell right before Christmas. The mailbox out by the road was a barely noticable bump in a sea of white. I think it was new year's day when the rains started - warm rain, and lots of it. All that snow melted (along with much more which had previously fallen in the higher mountains) and headed down towards Reno. Donner Creek, which had been diverted to build a Shell gas station, regained its former glory as well as its former route, leaving giant gravel berms between the pump islands. A diversion dam on the Truckee River blew out. Logs and other debris were left behind on bridges across the river in downtown Reno. Good times.



We need strong El Nino to partially recharge underground aquifers. Hope it rains early and lot's of it and then get good snow in mountains with no warm rains melting it all to soon. Let it melt regular and finish filling the storage lakes during summer. Thais would be ideal.
Quoting 225. StormTrackerScott:



It's possible Taz. Drought to flood you watch. I called this El-Nino just like I am calling California has a exceptionally wet Winter! I say take it to bank.


Hope you are soooooooooo right on that prediction!




This is a very, very bad track for us here in Shanghai. I'm not sure those on here understand how little preparation is going on right now, only 48 hours before landfall in Eastern China: absolutely none. I went to a store nearby to get water and found the shelves overflowing.
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the Hong Kong Observatory
Bulletin issued at 16:45 HKT July 9 2015

The No. 8 Northwest Gale or Storm Signal is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per hour or more are expected from the northwest quarter.

At 5:00 PM HKT, Severe Tropical Storm Linfa was centered about 110 kilometers northeast of Hong Kong (22.9N 115.0E) and is forecast to move west at about 22 km/h in the general direction of the vicinity of the Pearl River Estuary.

Linfa continued to edge closer to the Pearl River Estuary. According to the present forecast track, Linfa is expected to skirt within 100 kilometers north of Hong Kong tonight and in the small hours tomorrow.

In the past few hours, local winds have already strengthened. Local weather will deteriorate quickly and winds will strengthen. Seas will be rough and there will be swells. Members of the public should stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

As the circulation of Linfa is relatively small and it has moved faster, the impact of Linfa's gale force winds to Hong Kong will not last long. Linfa is expected to weaken gradually and move away from Hong Kong tomorrow morning.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Chek Lap Kok and Lau Fau Shan were 47 and 44 km/h with maximum gusts 60 and 59 km/h respectively.
Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELA (EP042015)
11:00 PM HST July 8 2015
==========================

SUBJECT: Tropical Cyclone "ELA" East of Big Island (Hawaii)

At 10:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ela (1003 hPa) located at 19.3N 145.1W or 565 NM east of Hilo, Hawaii has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Gale/Storm Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS: 20.6N 146.4W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 21.8N 148.8W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 23.5N 153.3W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
72 HRS: 24.4N 158.2W - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
==============
Latest satellite imagery shows that persistent southwesterly shear has shunted the mid-level center of the cyclone well northeast of the surface center. However...data from a u.S. Air force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate surface winds near 35 kt in the northeast quadrant. Although the on-board SFMR instrument was experiencing data quality issues...reduction of flight level winds supports upgrading the depression to a tropical storm with this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 320/10 kt...with Ela being steered by the flow around a deep layer ridge to the east...and a persistent closed low aloft centered just northeast of the main Hawaiian islands. UW-CIMSS indicates nearly 25 kt of southwesterly shear currently over the system...and ships guidance indicates increasing shear values along the forecast track...especially after the first 24 hours or so. As such...Ela is forecast to maintain storm intensity overnight before succumbing to the shear and gradually weakening on Thursday and Friday. The increasingly shallow system is forecast to turn toward the west and dissipate to a remnant low just north of the main Hawaiian islands this weekend...before dissipation occurs. The updated track forecast has changed little...And lies between the previous and the TVCN consensus.
Quoting 325. galvestonhurricane:


the people in Shanghai don't pay attention to China Meteorological Administration bulletins?

110 knots (2 min) sustained winds nearby forecast for south of the area..

** WTPQ20 BABJ 090900 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SEVERE TYPHOON CHAN-HOM 1509 (1509) INITIAL TIME 090900 UTC
00HR 23.8N 128.2E 955HPA 42M/S
30KTS WINDS 430KM NORTHEAST
430KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
430KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
100KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 30KM NORTHEAST
30KM SOUTHEAST
30KM SOUTHWEST
30KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 25KM/H
P 12HR 25.4N 125.6E 945HPA 48M/S
P 24HR 26.9N 123.4E 930HPA 55M/S
P 36HR 27.8N 121.6E 935HPA 52M/S
Quoting 328. HadesGodWyvern:



the people in Shanghai don't pay attention to China Meteorological Administration bulletins?

110 knots (2 min) sustained winds nearby forecast for south of the area..

** WTPQ20 BABJ 090900 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SEVERE TYPHOON CHAN-HOM 1509 (1509) INITIAL TIME 090900 UTC
00HR 23.8N 128.2E 955HPA 42M/S
30KTS WINDS 430KM NORTHEAST
430KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
430KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 100KM NORTHEAST
100KM SOUTHEAST
100KM SOUTHWEST
100KM NORTHWEST
64KTS WINDS 30KM NORTHEAST
30KM SOUTHEAST
30KM SOUTHWEST
30KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NW 25KM/H
P 12HR 25.4N 125.6E 945HPA 48M/S
P 24HR 26.9N 123.4E 930HPA 55M/S
P 36HR 27.8N 121.6E 935HPA 52M/S


Most people here don't even know about the storm. News about the storm is not being broadcast on local news channels, and it's not being talked about much on Chinese websites or newspapers. In fact, the only news on the storm I've seen is that they are beginning to shut down rail lines along the coast.
Here's one headline from Shanghai Daily:

"Typhoons to skip city, 7 trains canceled"

Edit: That's not even a headline. It was on page five of today's paper.
wow.. I guess eastern China is so different than southern China when spreading typhoon information.. =/


Typhoons to skip city, 7 trains canceled

---
can't believe how misleading news reports will be.
Who thinks we'll get more action year.
Who thinks we're done.
first low pressure of the yr moves off w.africa cmc
Quoting 334. HurricaneAndre:

Who thinks we'll get more action year.
Who thinks we're done.

"August, come they must".
Operation delta force is in full swing. While the main star erratic typhoon Chan-hom prepares to deal heavy blow to China, Linfa is already making her way to Pearl river delta. Wonder when all those conspiracy theorists out there will start suspecting Haarp for this, just like they did with Haiyan.


Quoting 277. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

!!! Volcanic eruptions that changed human history: Researchers find new evidence that large eruptions were responsible for cold temperature extremes recorded since early Roman times

Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years (Click for larger image):



Source: Nature, 2015; DOI: 10.1038/nature14565
Quoting 333. tampabaymatt:




Semi-droughty conditions continue here with rain averaging maybe twice per week, only one of which is substantial. Well below average for the middle of the rainy season and not enough especially with the half of each week spent in a heat wave of above normal temperatures and below normal cloud cover.
Chan-hom looking a little more organized this morning with convection wrapping all the way around the eye. It's chance to become a super typhoon (once all but a certainty) appears to be gone. It just never brought itself fully together, never got that "classic" structure. However, it's a huge and still powerful storm, and will present a major storm surge risk at the coast. Not hard to imagine how much water a storm of this size could be pushing in front of it. Bet the pressure is very low as well, much lower than usual for a storm with "only" ~100kts winds.

Nangka is absolutely beautiful. There are no other words to describe it. It's resilience against Chan-Hom's heavy outflow is remarkable. And on the subject of Chan-Hom, it structurally reminds me a lot of Bolaven a couple of years back. Linfa impressed me too; given the fact that it's only July, these storms are pretty dang impressive.
A very good interview-

Q&A: Antarctica - our big icy threat

Scientists are watching the dramatic death throes of the huge Larsen B ice shelf in Antarctica, which is giving way after 10,000 years. And in only the last six years, glaciers along the Southern Antarctic Peninsula have shed 14 trillion tonnes of water.

What's going on in the big frozen continent below us? Dr Nancy Bertler of GNS Science and Victoria University, a plenary speaker in the 2015 Antarctic Science Conference opening in Christchurch tomorrow, answered these questions from the Herald.


Link
Morning all. Getting some thunder and now heavy rain from a clod complex of that ull we were looking at ..
Tornado hits Venice, Italy - video

A tornado sweeps through the outskirts of the Italian city of Venice. The storm, which hit the town of Dolo between Venice and Padua, destroyed homes and buildings and left at least one person dead, according to local media. Footage posted online shows the tornado throwing debris across a road
LINFA made landfall and is near Hong Kong..
Topan Linfa Akan Menyerang China Tenggara
Quoting 333. tampabaymatt:


Get ready after these next couple of dry days from that TUTT over the Bahamas, moisture will return to the area early next week.




we have a new invest 92C AND MAYBE more invests coming soon
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about 1100 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Sur are
associated with a tropical wave and a broad low pressure area.
Gradual development is anticipated through the weekend, and this
system will likely become a tropical depression by early next week
while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico are associated with a tropical wave.
Conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
over the next several days, and this system will likely become a
tropical depression by early next week while it moves west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

here we go!
352. JRRP
ECMWF


here is invest 92C


Catastrophic Chinese floods triggered by air pollution
What atmospheric scientist Jiwen Fan saw on her television in July 2013 appalled her. The worst flooding to hit China in 50 years was happening in Sichuan province, in the same place that had been devastated by a massive earthquake just 5 years earlier. Over the course of 5 days, 73 centimeters of rain pounded the mountains, peaking at 29 centimeters in a single day. Rivers burst their banks and poured through city streets, washing away homes, factories, and bridges. Steep valley slopes collapsed in deadly landslides. About 200 people died, and a further 300,000 were displaced.

Link
I see we are back to 6 storms in the Pacific, with the Atlantic continuing as quiet as the grave.

Good Morning Folks. Here is the big picture on the two typhoons headed towards China/Asia Pacific: wow......................

Quoting 356. PlazaRed:

I see we are back to 6 storms in the Pacific, with the Atlantic continuing as quiet as the grave.




Same general pattern in the Pacific as the Atlantic during the respective peak periods; things quiet down for a period, then sheer drops and you get a storm "cluster" like the Atlantic often gets during the Cape Verde period. Incredible to see 4 storms and 2 developing lows in the Pacific at one time.
As Nino 3.4 makes a run at 2C the next 2 to 3 weeks waters around Australia are quickly cooling off. This is very important in driving the SOI down deep into Super El-Nino territory. Reason for this as waters cool around Australia only to be dispersed further east it causes high pressure to dominate around Australia as lower pressure moves to where the higher SST's are.


Very impressive signature really has been taking shape very fast just in the last week or 2.

And the latest from China on the Linfa landfall and two pending storms (Chan-Hom and Nangka):


GUANGZHOU - Typhoon Linfa made landfall on Thursday in South China's Guangdong province, where trains have been suspended, schools closed and thousands of fishing boats recalled to port.

Linfa made landfall in Jiadong township of Shanwei city at 12:15 pm, packing winds of up to 35 m per second, according to the provincial meteorological station.

From Wednesday night, gales and torrential rains hit Shantou city about 100 km away from the landing point. Trees in the city were brought down by strong winds while three main bridges to Shanwei city and an offshore island county have all been closed as of Thursday morning.

With a complex route and changing intensity, Linfa was earlier expected to make landfall on the coastal regions stretching from Shantou city in Guangdong to Zhangpu city in Fujian province.

About 10,400 fishing vessels returned to ports in five cities in Guangdong.

The province issued a yellow alert for Linfa on Wednesday, closing kindergartens, elementary and middle schools in 15 counties.

Meanwhile, another Typhoon, Chan-Hom, is approaching East China fast.

As of 11 am Thursday the center of Chan-Hom was located 1,000 km southeast to Wenzhou city of Zhejiang province, packing winds up to 40 m per second. It moved 70 km northwest in the last three hours maintaining the intensity, according to Zhejiang Meteorological station.

Chan-Hom is expected to land in Zhejiang on late Friday night or Saturday morning as a super typhoon, according to the station.

All 7,672 fishing boats in Wenzhou city were called back to harbor as the city issued a yellow alert on Thursday morning. Torrential rains are expected in the city from Friday night to Saturday.

Zhejiang suspended its direct shipping route to Taiwan on Thursday for safety reasons. Travellers who have bought the tickets can reschedule for free or get a full refund, according to the county government of Yuhuan.

Railway authorities in the eastern city of Shanghai plan to suspend all passenger trains along the coast on Friday and Saturday.

On Wednesday, the China National Commission for Disaster Reduction and the Ministry of Civil Affairs urged Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Shanghai and Zhejiang to set up dedicated teams to track the two typhoons and disseminate information.

MDR coolest since 1913. Very significant too as we may not get any systems forming across the MDR this year with sub 26C SST's in place.



Global warming skeptics cite personal weather observations as the key reason for their views

The number of Americans who believe there is evidence of global warming rose to 63 percent after a memorable winter that included record cold and snow in the Northeast and historic warmth and drought in the West, according to a University of Michigan survey.



A new report from the National Surveys on Energy and Environment showed an 8 percentage point increase in the belief in global warming from Spring 2014 and a 3 percentage point increase from last fall.


Read more at: Link
As I mentioned yesterday, SST's across the MDR will slowly rise come August as the SAL retreats and the surface waters will bump up a few degrees; this current SAL chart fits perfectly over the cooler waters posted below.  You cannot assume that the MDR will not produce at least a tropical storm this year.



Quoting 358. weathermanwannabe:



Same general pattern in the Pacific as the Atlantic during the respective peak periods; things quiet down for a period, then sheer drops and you get a storm "cluster" like the Atlantic often gets during the Cape Verde period. Incredible to see 4 storms and 2 developing lows in the Pacific at one time.


Maybe not this year the Sea Surface pattern across the Atlantic is basically like the Kiss of Death for anything to get going. Only threat area this year is going to be the SW Atlantic/Gulf/NW Caribbean. Other than that going to be hard to get something going across cool SST's.
Quoting 359. StormTrackerScott:

As Nino 3.4 makes a run at 2C the next 2 to 3 weeks waters around Australia are quickly cooling off. This is very important in driving the SOI down deep into Super El-Nino territory. Reason for this as waters cool around Australia only to be dispersed further east it causes high pressure to dominate around Australia as lower pressure moves to where the higher SST's are.


Very impressive signature really has been taking shape very fast just in the last week or 2.




Thanks for that Scott.
It seems that about 90%+ of the Pacific above the equator is in temp anomalies rated as above normal.
Soon the above normal may have to be regarded as the normal, so that a 5 degree above the "new normal," will be an up to 10 degree anomaly above the old normal.
Sort of just trying to "Normalise," things a bit for the near future.

We in Europe are of course continuing well "above normal" with the end to this quite a while from now. Possibly at least 10 days from now at about the 20th of July which is as far as they can see in the heat haze anyway here.

The West coast of North America is also above "normal," so maybe we should shift the "normal" a few degrees soon.
Quoting 363. weathermanwannabe:

As I mentioned yesterday, SST's across the MDR will slowly rise come August as the SAL retreats and the surface waters will bump up a few degrees; this current SAL chart fits perfectly over the cooler waters posted below.  You cannot assume that the MDR will not produce at least a tropical storm this year.






We might get a TS out of the MDR but surely nothing significant. During the 1997/1998 Super El-Nino we had very warm SST's across the MDR which actually helped feed a couple powerhouse systems. Different this time around with Super El-Nino setting up shop as the SST's pattern is flipped across the Atlantic.

Notice the Sea Surface flip below.

July 7th 1997


July 9th 2015
Quoting 364. StormTrackerScott:



Maybe not this year the Sea Surface pattern across the Atlantic is basically like the Kiss of Death for anything to get going. Only threat area this year is going to be the SW Atlantic/Gulf/NW Caribbean. Other than that going to be hard to get something going across cool SST's.


The max heat (based on tilt of the Earth during the summer) content generated across Africa and the Central Atlantic between mid-August and mid-September is what generates waves and convection across the Atlantic ITCZ and it is looking pretty good so far (with good precip in the Sahel) and with a robust wave currently exiting the African coast. I am pretty sure that we will see a robust Atlantic ITCZ this year and that current SST's will warm up come late August........................Does not mean that we will have an active year (below average) but I believe that we cannot count out the Cape Verde waves as to potential development. A low shear pocket and marginal SSTs can still sustain formation of a storm across the Central Atlantic but perhaps hinder intensification. We have to wait until late August to see what overall conditions look like out there.
Quoting 364. StormTrackerScott:



Maybe not this year the Sea Surface pattern across the Atlantic is basically like the Kiss of Death for anything to get going. Only threat area this year is going to be the SW Atlantic/Gulf/NW Caribbean. Other than that going to be hard to get something going across cool SST's.


That's why any system that can develop will potentially threaten CONUS as it would be so near to GOM or SEUSA shores.
Quoting 367. weathermanwannabe:



The max heat (based on tilt of the Earth during the summer) content generated across Africa and the Central Atlantic between mid-August and mid-September is what generates waves and convection across the Atlantic ITCZ and it is looking pretty good so far (with good precip in the Sahel) and with a robust wave currently exiting the African coast. I am pretty sure that we will see a robust Atlantic ITCZ this year and that current SST's will warm up come late August........................Does not mean that we will have an active year (below average) but I believe that we cannot count out the Cape Verde waves as to potential development. A low shear pocket and marginal SSTs can still sustain formation of a storm across the Central Atlantic but perhaps hinder intensification. We have to wait until late August to see what overall conditions look like out there.


Yeah hard to discount but I believe as El-Nino gets stronger now into September this will in turn cause the Trades to freshen even more off Africa resulting in more dust moving off the Continent. I am watching for some of these waves to remain intact enough to cross the ATL only to build closer to home. That is my thinking doesn't mean its right but that is where I am at right now. Been wrong many times before so well see.
no action in the mdr this yr? throw some more dice scott. big difference between 97 and now is that huge area of cooler than normal water in the north atlantic.
Depth of the 26C Isotherm

Quoting 368. rmbjoe1954:



That's why any system that can develop will potentially threaten CONUS as it would be so near to GOM or SEUSA shores.


Yup will have to watch some of these strong waves down the road that travel across the ATL then come to life fast near the Gulf or SW ATL. Sea Surface pattern is higher near the US than in 1997 but cooler out in the Central ATL.
Quoting 372. Patrap:

Depth of the 26C Isotherm




Warmest close to home since I can remember. Been awhile since we've seen SST's this warm close to the US. Could be a problem down the road. Any thoughts on that Pat.
Quoting 215. Naga5000:



Your nonsense story has been debunked already, including the first time you posted it yesterday. For all your talk about God, help4u, you may want to reread that handbook of yours.

"But avoid foolish controversies, genealogies, dissensions, and quarrels about the law, for they are unprofitable and worthless. As for a person who stirs up division, after warning him once and then twice, have nothing more to do with him, knowing that such a person is warped and sinful; he is self-condemned." Titus 3:9-11

Cheers :)
I find that [redacted] like this person choose to engage in selective reading of their 'handbook'. I also find that they will be the first to pass judgement on another, to find excuse in their failings and make no attempt to better their understanding of the world. I have no respect for people like [redacted], no will I ever.
Speaking of images, here is an image of Linfa making landfall at the Chinese coast. Great shot in that the harbor is calm on the other side of the barrier wall where the wave is crashing over; it will be a different story (on both sides) when the two larger/stronger storms make landfall:

Typhoon Linfa makes landfall in Guangdong, disrupting normal life
Here is the latest warning/track for Chan-Hom. I will be amazed if the sharp turn materializes but it appears to make the coast nonetheless before the turn. This current forecast calls for gusts of 130 to 140 knots at-nearing landfall. Based on this, it will be a worst case scenario for Shanghai Harbor.



Quoting 375. StormTrackerScott:



Warmest close to home since I can remember. Been awhile since we've seen SST's this warm close to the US. Could be a problem down the road. Any thoughts on that Pat.


Be prepared as it only takes one Major Impact to bring the grief.
Yesterday evening's downburst in Villach/Carinthia/Southern Austria: looks like this is the new style of European severe weather (see post #16), uahh:



But temps are really down now in central Europe, even chilly in the nights, so hopefully no sequel of weather like this north of the Alps for a while ...
If this track (right over Shanghai) and intensity forecast verifies, it will be the theoretical equivalent of Hurricane Andrew in 92 making landfall at the Port of Miami and the heart of the City. Damaging the Port and potentially destroying cargo buildings and damaging-toppling shipping container cranes not to mention all of the homes and businesses located on/near the Port. Have no idea what the building codes are in Shanghai and whether they are built to withstand 110 to 130 knot gusts.
typhoon chan horn look for the chinese to take evasive action like seeding it.
Part of Puerto Rico is now in extreme drought and the moderate area has expanded.

Quoting 385. Tropicsweatherpr:

Part of Puerto Rico is now in extreme drought and the moderate area has expanded.




That is where the popular Rainforest Tour is. El Yunque National park been there many times! Sad to see it so dry there.
This recent advisory has Chan-Hom peaking at 115 knots; that is better news for coastal China.
WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 36//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. AS DEPICTED IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, TY 09W REMAINS A LARGE SYSTEM WITH A RADIUS OF
APPROXIMATELY 240 NM, THEREFORE, GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM'S TIGHT OUTER GRADIENT CURRENTLY EXTEND OVER OKINAWA WITH
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ABOUT 120 NM FROM THE CENTER. A 090758Z
SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG 26N WITH MORE INTENSE
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG 25N WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE EYEWALL.
ANIMATED IR IMAGERY REVEALS A RAGGED 38-NM EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. IR IMAGERY INDICATES A
SLIGHT WOBBLE, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS
BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM BOTH
PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO
20) VWS BEING OFFSET BY NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 09W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER, THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA.
B. TY 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF GFDN, DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. TY CHAN-HOM WILL
STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS.
AFTER TAU 36, TY CHAN-HOM SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD-ORIENTED STR, WHICH WILL
RE-ORIENT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL TROUGH.
Quoting 382. barbamz:

Yesterday evening's downburst in Villach/Carinthia/Southern Austria: looks like this is the new style of European severe weather, uahh:



But temps are really down now in central Europe, even really chilly in the nights, so hopefully no sequel of weather like this north of the Alps for a while ...



Your reports here show the European Trend well barbamz and we appreciate them greatly.
Quoting 352. JRRP:

ECMWF

Could be a "sleeper".Waiting until it gets in to the N.W caribbean or gulf like Ernesto. (Sorry phone put something else)
Quoting 382. barbamz:

Yesterday evening's downburst in Villach/Carinthia/Southern Austria: looks like this is the new style of European severe weather, uahh:



But temps are really down now in central Europe, even really chilly in the nights, so hopefully no sequel of weather like this north of the Alps for a while ...



Incredible footage. We never get weather remotely like that in the UK. Is this weather a relatively new development in central Europe, or have there always been such storms (derechos?), but they're now becoming more frequent?
Quoting 389. Patrap:

Your reports here show the European Trend well barbamz and we appreciate them greatly.

Thanks, Pat. Europe tries so hard to compensate this blog for the lack of Atlantic hurricanes ;-)
https://twitter.com/notrickszone/status/61911401043 3204224
Quoting 392. yonzabam:
Incredible footage. We never get weather remotely like that in the UK. Is this weather a relatively new development in central Europe, or have there always been such storms (derechos?), but they're now becoming more frequent?

I've really no idea if there are any meaningful statistics of the frequency of such extreme downbursts (or even derechos) in Europe, to tell the truth. Of course, mobile cams now contribute a lot to better get hold of such events which are recorded in the European Severe Weather Database. But as the ingredients for such events are hot and moist air under the attack of some kind of a windy cold front (like in US' Tornado Alley), I won't be surprised to learn that those events are the more powerful the hotter its getting in Europe - and we just had a record breaking heat wave.
Chan-Hom is likley increasing in intensity as we speak.  That Super Typhoon status may not be out of the question when this phase is all said and done.



One thing to note is the rather sharp contrast in SST near the East Coast of China.  This should act as shield to some extent in knocking down some of the energy of this storm.


Record heat, drought a fatal combination for fish across the West

GRANTS PASS, Ore. – Drought and record hot weather are producing lethal conditions for salmon and trout in rivers across the West.

A recent survey of the lower reaches of 54 rivers in Oregon, California and Washington by the conservation group Wild Fish Conservancy showed nearly three-quarters had temperatures higher than 70 degrees, considered potentially deadly for salmon and trout.

Low river flows from the record low winter snowpack, which normally feeds rivers through the summer, combined with record hot weather have created a “perfect storm” of bad conditions for salmon and trout, said U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service supervisory fisheries biologist Rich Johnson.

“It’s unprecedented, I’d say,” Johnson said.


Link
Great downdraft video from Austria. Like a miniature tropical storm! Thanks for showing how scary those events can be. Those shivering window blinds were right out of a horror movie!

But seriously, it's not knowing what's coming next or how much worse it's going to get that's the most nerve-wracking part, isn't it?

Signed,
Been There, Done That, Got the Generator

Quoting 396. ILwthrfan:

Chan-Hom is likley increasing in intensity as we speak.  That Super Typhoon status may not be out of the question when this phase is all said and done.



One thing to note is the rather sharp contrast in SST near the East Coast of China.  This should act as shield to some extent in knocking down some of the energy of this storm.



This is the first time I have seen it actually perform better than expected by JTWC, Chan-hom surely picked a bad time to do that and his wind field is now exceptional, I have not seen such an impressive wind field in a long while. Nangka s wind field is a complete crap against Chan-homs.
http://phys.org/news/2015-07-global-skeptics-cite-p ersonal-weather.html#jCp

Wow, 42% of Republicans do not believe global warming exists. Certainly not a party full of big brains, that's for sure.
Quoting 383. weathermanwannabe:

If this track (right over Shanghai) and intensity forecast verifies, it will be the theoretical equivalent of Hurricane Andrew in 92 making landfall at the Port of Miami and the heart of the City. Damaging the Port and potentially destroying cargo buildings and damaging-toppling shipping container cranes not to mention all of the homes and businesses located on/near the Port. Have no idea what the building codes are in Shanghai and whether they are built to withstand 110 to 130 knot gusts.
I lived through Andrew in Miami, and it was a very compact storm, luckily in downtown Miami we missed the worst of it. Also Chan-Hom is not going to be a category 5 like Andrew. Worst case scenario is a cat. 2 or 3 going into Shanghai, but it won't be a 4 or 5
And two more developing southwest of Mexico this AM.
Quoting 356. PlazaRed:

I see we are back to 6 storms in the Pacific, with the Atlantic continuing as quiet as the grave.


Typhoon Chan-hom WunderMap®
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Short Link Full Link
Storm Details YouTube Videos WunderPhotos (0)
Last Updated 7/9/2015, 8:00:00 AM (Eastern Daylight Time)
Location 24.2N 232.4E Movement NW at 14 mph
Wind 115 MPH


INVEST 92c wow


Typhoon Chan-hom Typhoon Chan-hom WunderMap®
Last Updated 7/9/2015, 8:00:00 AM (Eastern Daylight Time)
JRRP quite interesting that the EURO is showing a disturbance 600miles east of the windwards on July 19th. if it were any other model, i would have taken it with a grain of salt.
Wisconsin Energy Corp. CEO, Gale Klappa, President of Global Warming Misinformation Campaign Earlier In His Career

The Union of Concerned Scientists has released a new report today titled, “The Climate Deception Dossiers.” The report details internal fossil fuel industry memos totaling more than 330 pages, and reveals the tactics used by company executives to deliberately manufacture uncertainty about the scientific evidence on global warming. Using documents collected over the years by various organizations including Greenpeace, Climate Investigations Center, and Climate Accountability Institute, this report highlights seven collections that “provides an illuminating inside look at this coordinated campaign of deception” manufactured by fossil fuel corporations around the world.


Link
Weather Channel wants to attract Weather Underground fans with new show
Anaridis Rodriguez
The Weather Channels' Anaridis Rodriguez reports on the scene in Dallas. (Rex C. Curry / AP Images for The Weather Channe)
By STEPHEN BATTAGLIO contact the reporter Weather The Weather Channel (tv network) University of Michigan A&E (tv network) The Home Depot


The Weather Channel is looking to get its geek on.

The cable channel will soon announce the mid-August launch of a daily two-hour live show that taps into the resources and quirky spirit of Weather Underground, the website for meteorological enthusiasts obsessive enough to own personal forecast stations.

Verizon FiOS drops the Weather Channel
Verizon FiOS drops the Weather Channel
The Weather Co., the Weather Channel's parent, acquired Weather Underground in 2012, much to the chagrin of the site's fans who love its grass-roots approach to forecasting. They feared a corporate takeover of the San Francisco-based entity — which grew through a network of devoted followers supplying data from across the country — would make Weather Underground more commercial and less sophisticated. The site was founded by several University of Michigan students in 1993, taking their name from the left-wing radical organization formed in the late 1960s.

But the weather geeks who populate Weather Underground are the viewers the Weather Channel wants to attract with its new show.

The Weather Channel's president, David Clark, told The Times that the Weather Underground program would depart from standard coverage, providing meteorological news and discussion that "will be done in a fun, fast-moving, youthful kind of way." Unlike the channel's slick studio look seen through most of the day, the Weather Underground proceedings will take place in a casual clubhouse atmosphere with a few bar stools, easy chairs and memorabilia.

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8

The program, airing from 3 to 5 p.m. Pacific time, will be hosted by Weather Channel meteorologist and storm chaser Mike Bettes and use the Weather Underground's roster of experts and bloggers. Some of the site's contributors who supply their local data will also be invited to participate.

"They have a network of geeks that may not have a degree in weather, but they love it, and that's good enough for us," said Nora Zimmett, a former CNN producer now in charge of live programming for the Weather Channel.

The channel was one of the most valuable assets in cable before the iPhone was invented.
- Nora Zimmett, a former CNN producer
The Weather Underground show is the channel's latest bid to prove its value in an age when temperatures and forecasts are available in an instant on the Internet and mobile devices. The Weather Co. also owns Weather.com, the most visited Internet site for forecast information
Quoting 401. ClimateChange:

http://phys.org/news/2015-07-global-skeptics-cite- p ersonal-weather.html#jCp

Wow, 42% of Republicans do not believe global warming exists. Certainly not a party full of big brains, that's for sure.
The cut and paste link you posted is bad, but Duck Duck found the article for me. This LInk should work.

Find a couple interesting things there:
"The survey continues to find evidence that views on global warming and perceptions of weather are closely connected. Those who think global warming is occurring increasingly attribute their position to the effects of severe droughts and extreme weather in areas of the United States, while those who do not believe global warming is happening are also increasingly citing personal observation of weather as the primary factor for their position."
My oh my. How cleverly you've picked the pieces of this article to put in your comment here. The article's "headline" also cites skeptics for using weather as an excuse not to "believe," when the actual survey showed global warming "believers" also cite current weather as the basis for their views.

"Majorities of Democrats (76 percent) and Independents (60 percent) believe there is evidence of global warming while Republicans remain divided with 45 percent who agree that global warming is occurring and 42 percent who do not think it exists."
Hmmm. More Republicans (perhaps, see margin of error for the poll*) see the globe warming than don't, yet your clever political-picking comment neglected to mention this.

The information you posted is unbalanced.

(The random telephone survey of 751 American adults was conducted April 8-30. The survey had a *margin of error of 3.5 percent.)
edit: corrected strong code and spacing
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-07-global-skeptics-cite- personal-weather.html#jCp
ADMIN , I noticed that Steve Gregory is no more on the list of feature bloggers? Is it he has taken the exit route like 456?
I lived through Andrew in Miami, and it was a very compact storm, luckily in downtown Miami we missed the worst of it. Also Chan-Hom is not going to be a category 5 like Andrew. Worst case scenario is a cat. 2 or 3 going into Shanghai, but it won't be a 4 or 5

you are right....but we should not forget...there's no building codes there as it relates to hurricanes.....and...there's has been no evacuation plans that i have seen
Quoting 401. ClimateChange:

http://phys.org/news/2015-07-global-skeptics-cite- p ersonal-weather.html#jCp

Wow, 42% of Republicans do not believe global warming exists. Certainly not a party full of big brains, that's for sure.


I think if a Republican gets elected to the presidency he/she will sing a different tune rather quickly. Reality will overwhelmingly consume belief for someone with so much responsibility. Maybe it is easy to be some crank Senator or Congressperson, but a sitting President I don't think so.
Dr. Rood recently asked if we are entering a period of rapid climate change. A strong El-Nino could make that answer be Yes. Conditions on the ground would be impossible to ignore.
WAKE UP ATLANTIC, YOU'VE BEEN SLEEP FOR 3 YEARS.
410. ricderr
9:49 AM CDT on July 09, 2015
0
Weather Channel wants to attract Weather Underground fans with new show
Anaridis Rodriguez







Quoting 411. Barefootontherocks:

The cut and paste link you posted is bad, but Duck Duck found the article for me. This LInk should work.

Find a couple interesting things there:

"The survey continues to find evidence that views on global warming and perceptions of weather are closely connected. Those who think global warming is occurring increasingly attribute their position to the effects of severe droughts and extreme weather in areas of the United States, while those who do not believe global warming is happening are also increasingly citing personal observation of weather as the primary factor for their position."

My oh my. How cleverly you've picked the pieces of this article to put in your comment here. The article's "headline" also cites skeptics for using weather as an excuse not to "believe," when the actual survey showed global warming "believers" also cite current weather as the basis for their views.

"Majorities of Democrats (76 percent) and Independents (60 percent) believe there is evidence of global warming while Republicans remain divided with 45 percent who agree that global warming is occurring and 42 percent who do not think it exists."

Hmmm. More Republicans (perhaps, see margin of error for the poll*) see the globe warming than don't, yet your clever political-picking comment neglected to mention this.

The information you posted is unbalanced.

(The random telephone survey of 751 American adults was conducted April 8-30. The survey had a *margin of error of 3.5 percent.)


Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-07-global-skeptics-cite- personal-weather.html#jCp
The other interesting thing is that they don't show that th percentage has DROPPED to 42% ... showing that the trend is working on both groups.

The reality is that by nature humans tend to want firsthand proof.
Atmospheric CO2 for June 2015

Quoting 410. ricderr:

The Weather Channel's president, David Clark, told The Times that the Weather Underground program would depart from standard coverage, providing meteorological news and discussion that "will be done in a fun, fast-moving, youthful kind of way." Unlike the channel's slick studio look seen through most of the day, the Weather Underground proceedings will take place in a casual clubhouse atmosphere with a few bar stools, easy chairs and memorabilia.

Anybody else think that the embarrassment potential for this is rather high? It could be okay, though. I'm just skeptical when suits say something about a show/event/whatever being "fun, fast-moving, youthful."

Also, isn't there a fair share of middle-aged and...um, advanced middle aged people around here?

{Edited to add the rather important word "potential".}
2015 Hurricane Season ends July 31st? I don't remember it saying that at all.
Quoting 412. stoormfury:

ADMIN , I noticed that Steve Gregory is no more on the list of feature bloggers? Is it he has taken the exit route like 456?


His blog that he wrote July 6th He hasn't gone anywhere ..
Quoting 415. HurricaneAndre:

WAKE UP ATLANTIC, YOU'VE BEEN SLEEP FOR 3 YEARS.


STOP ALL READY ITS NOT GOING TOO HAPPEN ANY TIME SOON
Unlike the channel's slick studio look seen through most of the day, the Weather Underground proceedings will take place in a casual clubhouse atmosphere with a few bar stools, easy chairs and memorabilia.


Quoting 420. HurricaneAndre:

2015 Hurricane Season ends July 31st? I don't remember it saying that at all.


i think you made that one up
Typhoon Chan-hom should be the top story everywhere. There is some serious potential for devastating impacts to an enormous amount of people. A well-timed eye-wall replacement cycle and/or massive weakening of the system is the only way I see this not being a disaster of historic proportions. It is the sheer number of people affected and not necessarily strength of the storm that will make this a likely reality.
I won't be able to be as glued to the computer as a I want to be the next few days, but I will make time running the risk of being considered a little rude by my family.
A solid sign of where we are headed across the Southern US this Fall/Winter. Mid July already so Fall is fast approaching. 7 weeks or so to Labor Day. It will be here before you know it.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 14m14 minutes ago Cambridge, MA
Extremely rare -4 sigma upper-level trough o/the Southwest accelerating the sub-tropical jetstream 80kt above average


Going RI...there's no way Chan-Hom is anything less than a Category 4 now.
Quoting 352. JRRP:

ECMWF

People always seem to write off Hurricane Season annually over a period of quietness. The tropics will have more tropical activity between now and Nov 30th.
Quoting 401. ClimateChange:

http://phys.org/news/2015-07-global-skeptics-cite- p ersonal-weather.html#jCp

Wow, 42% of Republicans do not believe global warming exists. Certainly not a party full of big brains, that's for sure.

I, being republican, am offended by this statement.
chan horn is a heavy storm wont see many on earth like it. hopefully chan horn wont stall after landfall
Here is the wv loop and you can see the trof, into which the soon to be remnants of Linfa are starting to stream into, that will turn Chan-Hom to the North a few hundred miles inland from the coast:

navgem now has the upcoming atlantic system
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 090000Z, TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N
129.7E, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110
KNOTS.
i recently read n korea has been going through a long term drought. that will change
AT 090000Z, TYPHOON 10W (LINFA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N
116.8E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS.

AT 090000Z, TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N
146.9E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 150 KNOTS.
As long as The Weather Channel continues to produce television that is only geared towards the number of people that watch, not the depth or intelligence of the programming, I for one will not be watching it. I understand that my demographic is next to impossible to get to watch live television. I fall into the - despise commercials, hate talking heads, would much rather read something that is both excruciatingly detailed and ridiculously long - category. My single largest chunk of media consumption is probably reading weather blogs and weather forecasts and then reading the long scientific papers that go along with them. So unless my appetite for television changes as I get older, there is probably no way that ANY major media outlet will ever be able to capture my attention.
Notwithstanding all the hype, everyone here should know that nothing much is going to happen before August, per climatology. Late August is the likely time period for things to get going. Also not shocking to think that most if not all systems will be named closer to the Americas than to Africa. I still expect we'll have a few decent storms, too.
Fires and smoke in northern Canada

Aqua/MODIS
2015/189
07/08/2015
19:25 UTC

Link
Chan-Homs eye was wider this morning; it is contracting and intensifying:

WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 37//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 138 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. AS DEPICTED IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, TY 09W REMAINS A LARGE SYSTEM WITH A RADIUS OF
APPROXIMATELY 240 NM, THEREFORE, GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM'S TIGHT OUTER GRADIENT CURRENTLY EXTEND NORTH OF OKINAWA
WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OVER OKINAWA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM KADENA AB INDICATE PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS, THUS FAR, OF 51 KNOTS
AT 091322Z WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 66 KNOTS. A 091056Z SSMIS IMAGE
REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH MULTIPLE SPIRAL BANDS
WRAPPING INTO AN INTENSE, SYMMETRIC EYEWALL. ANIMATED IR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A 10- TO 15-NM ROUND EYE, WHICH HAS CONTRACTED OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. IR IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WOBBLE, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20) VWS BEING OFFSET BY NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW. TY 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.


20150709 | 1432 | W-PAC | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 24.6 | -127.0 | 941 (mb) | 102 (kt) | 09W | CHAN-HOM | 1 | MT


Link
Still over 100 fires burning in Saskatchewan alone, more than 1500 square miles have burned and this is ten times the average burned yearly for the province. Epic; the El-Nino affects have yet to be fully felt and we've already had Texas and Oklahoma get record rains and flooding, three typhoons at the same time beautifully aligned in the WPAC, and record heat in many places worldwide. Two of the top ten worst heat waves for fatalities in history in India and Pakistan to boot. RI flag on brought to you by AGW and El-Nino coupled with record SST'S providing the highest energy potential we've ever seen.


I can see a little green northeast side of the eye on the funktop. I wonder why there seems to be a lack of convection west of the central area of the storm?
Quoting 446. DeepSeaRising:

Still over 100 fires burning in Saskatchewan alone, more than 1500 square miles have burned and this is ten times the average burned yearly for the province. Epic; the El-Nino affects have yet to be fully felt and we've already had Texas and Oklahoma get record rains and flooding, three typhoons at the same time beautifully aligned in the WPAC, and record heat in many places worldwide. Two of the top ten worst heat waves for fatalities in history in India and Pakistan to boot. RI flag on brought to you by AGW and El-Nino coupled with record SST'S providing the highest energy potential we've ever seen.


Really scary.
Dr. Masters will probably note the dry air in the NW region of the circulation of Chan-Hom that is probably responsible for the lack of convection/wet banding in that quadrant. Gonna be a close call on whether it can fill that area in before landfall; will note that it is tying to pull in some of the moisture to the south into the circulation but it is about 1000 miles away.
IT'S PLUTO TIME: After spending almost 10 years hurtling into the void, NASA's New Horizons spacecraft is now only 4 days away from its historic flyby of Pluto. The dwarf planet has never been visited by a spacecraft from Earth, and New Horizons is expected to uncover many surprises.
Quoting 450. WaterWitch11:

IT'S PLUTO TIME: After spending almost 10 years hurtling into the void, NASA's New Horizons spacecraft is now only 4 days away from its historic flyby of Pluto. The dwarf planet has never been visited by a spacecraft from Earth, and New Horizons is expected to uncover many surprises.


Did you see the picture in the BBC science section. It finally looks like a planet!
Quoting 423. Patrap:

Unlike the channel's slick studio look seen through most of the day, the Weather Underground proceedings will take place in a casual clubhouse atmosphere with a few bar stools, easy chairs and memorabilia.





will they be singing? :)
Quoting 451. JustDucky251:



Did you see the picture in the BBC science section. It finally looks like a planet!


space weather showed an image of it
Quoting 426. StormTrackerScott:

A solid sign of where we are headed across the Southern US this Fall/Winter. Mid July already so Fall is fast approaching. 7 weeks or so to Labor Day. It will be here before you know it.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 14m14 minutes ago Cambridge, MA
Extremely rare -4 sigma upper-level trough o/the Southwest accelerating the sub-tropical jetstream 80kt above average


How does that affect air travel?
Arlington Getting It Right Workshop

Join us for a celebration of the 25th anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act! The ADA Legacy Bus Tour will be here with a four-panel display on the history of self-advocacy, courtesy of the Museum of disABILITY History.

This workshop will provide tools and information to emergency managers, disability organizations and stakeholders who want to improve resources and services to people with disabilities and their families before, during and after a disaster. This workshop will encourage facilitation of full integration and inclusion in all aspects of emergency preparedness and response. We will also help you understand how to be in full compliance to avoid litigation.

The speakers include representatives from FEMA, disability stakeholder organizations, a representative from the Virginia Department of Emergency Management and those involved in the recent litigation of the Brooklyn Center for Independence of the Disabled v. City of New York.

Where?

Hilton Arlington
950 North Stafford St.
Arlington VA 22203



When?

July 30-31, 2015



Registration is Free and includes lunch and all materials

Hotel Reservations

Rooms are available at the Hilton for a discounted rate. Click here to make a reservation or call the hotel at (703)812-5113.

Arlington Getting It Right Workshop Agenda



More Information
Quoting 413. ricderr:

I lived through Andrew in Miami, and it was a very compact storm, luckily in downtown Miami we missed the worst of it. Also Chan-Hom is not going to be a category 5 like Andrew. Worst case scenario is a cat. 2 or 3 going into Shanghai, but it won't be a 4 or 5

you are right....but we should not forget...there's no building codes there as it relates to hurricanes.....and...there's has been no evacuation plans that i have seen


I was there 20 years ago and saw that change was happening fast. Near the river all the real estate was being bulldozed and rebuilt with modern hi-rise buildings. The outskirts are going to be older and less well built, but along the river and in the business district I wouldn't expect to see any more damage than any shore city in the US.
Pretty intense recent RAMMB image of Nangka passing through the Mariana island chain:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 429. Climate175:

People always seem to write off Hurricane Season annually over a period of quietness. The tropics will have more tropical activity between now and Nov 30th.
It shows almost nothing and is at 240 hours.
Indonesia volcano Sinabung spews clouds of ash towards homes

7 hours ago


Mount Sinabung on Sumatra in western Indonesia is continuing to spew clouds of ash into the air and down slopes towards people's homes.


Authorities are monitoring activity from the volcano, after raising the alert to the highest possible level in early June.

More than 10,000 villagers whose homes are in the danger zone have since been evacuated
Quoting 423. Patrap:

Unlike the channel's slick studio look seen through most of the day, the Weather Underground proceedings will take place in a casual clubhouse atmosphere with a few bar stools, easy chairs and memorabilia.





Love Shack baaaaay beeee
Times like this, I'm darned glad my housemates have accepted Thor, the Aesir of thunder and lightning, as patron for their children. :)



Added for your amusement: