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Weather Underground Takes Over The Weather Channel in New Weeknight Series

By: Jeff Masters 1:25 PM GMT on July 22, 2015

It's been three years since Weather Underground (WU) became part of The Weather Company (AKA The Weather Channel, TWC). A key goal of mine for the merger--to make both Weather Underground and The Weather Channel better--has shown steady progress over the past few years, and takes an even larger step in that direction beginning on August 24, with the launch of the "Weather Underground" live cable TV show airing weekdays from 6-8 p.m. ET on The Weather Channel. The new show will appeal to everyone’s inner weather geek, featuring unique insights into the science behind weather and forecasting. I flew down to Atlanta last week to tape some segments for the new show, including what should be a pretty amusing series of promos (Part 1 embedded below). TWC is really making an impressive effort on this, complete with a custom set built to look like an underground bar, an original theme song of Seattle-grunge type music, and state-of-the art 3D visual presentations. Both Bob Henson and I will be appearing via Skype (and occasionally live in the studio) during some of the shows, but the show will also tap into the expertise of other severe weather experts, through forecast debates, deep dives into atmospheric science and live storm coverage. Each show will aim to promote a unique feature of the Weather Underground web site, like the latest blog post by Bob or myself, WunderPhotos, or personal weather stations. Breaking weather events will be the main focus, but climate change stories will also be featured.

WU’s unique community of personal weather station owners and fans will play an integral role in the show’s live, interactive experience--fans will be able to submit questions via #WUTV across social media, report current conditions in their area, contribute to the creation of show segments, access behind-the-scenes live-stream video via wunderground.com and participate in weather roundtables live on air.


Video 1. I give Mike Bettes a tough grilling during his interview for host of the new Weather Underground TV show. This is Part 1 of what may be up to an 8-part series.

After a lengthy interview process last week, it was decided that the show would be hosted by Mike Bettes, an Emmy Award-winning meteorologist and storm tracker. You can see part of the interview in the video clip above. Not shown is the part that almost blew it for him (which will be aired in a later installment of this series.) You see, Weather Underground's origin came as an educational project at the University of Michigan, where I was a Ph.D. student in the early 1990s. It turns out that Michigan has a pretty notorious rivalry with a certain Big Ten school based in Columbus, Ohio. Here's the transcript of this portion of the interview:

Me: "Mike, when we launch the show, we want to make sure we've selected a host that's fully qualified for the role. Do you mind if we go over your resume?"

Mike: "Not a problem!"

Me: "It says here that you graduated from Ohio State University."

Mike: "Yes sir. I got my degree in Atmospheric Science from the Ohio State University. Go Bucks!"

Me (skeptically): "Hmmm…and that's an accredited university??"

Mike (incredulously): "Well…yeah, of course!"

Mr. Bettes really did graduate from Ohio State, and has gone on to do some excellent coverage of landfalling hurricanes and severe weather outbreaks since he began working at TWC in 2003--including such events as the 2011 Joplin tornado and the 2013 El Reno tornado. I am very excited to see this new Weather Underground show launch, and think it will be a great dive deep into the science of meteorology for all weather enthusiasts.

Jeff Masters

Wunderground News

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

... What could possibly go wrong? Thanks, Dr. Masters :)
Where's Riah and how is she doing?
i rarely watch TWC.....not even when their programming was entirely weather focused.........however...i just might start
Thanks Dr. Masters!
My cable provider no longer offers TWC. Will there be any way for me to see it? On the internet perhaps?
Okay, I vote for the doc... lol
I'm still interested to know if bloggers will be featured ...


ok folks....form one line......walk steady...no pushing...no shoving........

hello....yes....we're in hurricane mode..........let's look what the boys say at FSU.....
cmc still shows the front exiting off the carolinas....however unlike yesterday....it now does nothing with it


ecmwf see something much broader....but also says ho-hum.......






gfs meanders it all over the southeast...but still never gets enthused about it








navgem agrees with the cmc and ecmwf......and likewise....says this one aint gonna happen



I made a blog yesterday night on the Hurricane Season. Everyone is welcomed to read it! Link
so folks...the ricderr-unofficialonlyafoolwouldfollowmyforecast.. ...forecast is...............


wake me up when this is over...........



Should be a cool show. Mike Bettes is a smart man. I met him out chasing as well as at the National Tornado Summit in OKC last year. 
Saharan dust strongest in decade, but will it help keep tropics quiet?
Link
Quoting 440. CybrTeddy:

It's definitely something of a stretch to call what the 06z GFS is portraying as Danny (what was on the 00z GFS definitely was Danny, but the 06z dropped the scenario), but I strongly suspect we're going to have to watch out for another trough split scenario off the US East Coast next week as the pattern is highly favorable for such developments. The ECMWF supports this scenario in 9-10 days with a trough split developing into a moderate tropical storm. This season, once again, reminds me of 1997 where we had the bulk of activity in June and July from non-tropical developments. 1997 basically shut off for the entire month of August before Major Hurricane Erika developed in September.




Agreed, but I'm not sure this August will be shut down. Models are showing shear relaxing quite a lot by early August and with the tropical waves this year being quite strong, I wouldn't be surprised if we got a CV storm. Not to mention there's a possibility of a weak MJO signal across the Atlantic for the second half of August which could help increase chances for tropical cyclone genesis. Although in saying that, the models haven't got a very good hold on the MJO at the moment.

Interesting scenario this weekend/early next week. SSTs are more than warm enough:



Lots of 28-29C water with some 30C starting to show up.
Quoting 16. Envoirment:



Agreed, but I'm not sure this August will be shut down. Models are showing shear relaxing quite a lot by early August and with the tropical waves this year being quite strong, I wouldn't be surprised if we got a CV storm. Not to mention there's a possibility of a weak MJO signal across the Atlantic for the second half of August which could help increase chances for tropical cyclone genesis. Although in saying that, the models haven't got a very good hold on the MJO at the moment.

Interesting scenario this weekend/early next week. SSTs are more than warm enough:



Lots of 28-29C water with some 30C starting to show up.
My thoughts too.
Thanks for the update Doc. Sounds like a pretty interesting show. I do have the same concern as Sunny, will there be another way to view the program?
Put Jennifer Delgado or Stephanie Abrams on the show and I'll definitely tune in. Other than that, college football starts in approximately 43 days 8 hours 45 minutes and 37 seconds. But who's keeping up with it exactly?
There is one thing I don t particularly understand. The high concentrations of Saharan dust seems to have helped suppress the activity of tropical storms in recent years in the Atlantic, but I keep on reading that Sahara is shrinking as the global warming kicks in, shouldn t that mean less SAL on average in Atlantict contrary to the high concentrations we have seen in recent years?








Tropical wave skirting us... no significant rain once again.
Look at the dent Dolores put into the SST over the East Pac...







YTD anomalies...



Oh my goodness Dr Masters! This is the best news i have heard in a while. Im excited for you, having sort of watched WU grow. This is great and I will be watching!
There is one thing I don t particularly understand. The high concentrations of Saharan dust seems to have helped suppress the activity of tropical storms in recent years in the Atlantic, but I keep on reading that Sahara is shrinking as the global warming kicks in, shouldn t that mean less SAL on average in Atlantict contrary to the high concentrations we have seen in recent years?

retreating or not...there's still enough surface area to generate enough dust to saturate the atlantic
Quoting 5. SunnyDaysFla:

My cable provider no longer offers TWC. Will there be any way for me to see it? On the internet perhaps?
Quoting 18. Storms306:

Thanks for the update Doc. Sounds like a pretty interesting show. I do have the same concern as Sunny, will there be another way to view the program?
Verizon FIOS?
The gulf is pipping hot..but it doesn't mean squat if the upper air environment is not supportive of T.C genesis.They could luck out again this year as the caribbean looks to be closed for business and the only way I could see a storm getting successfully in the gulf is if it takes a path like "K" or Rita.Basically a wave tracking above the caribbean and then going through the FL Keys.
Sounds like a great idea & program, looking forward to it!
Quoting 21. CaribBoy

I'd almost think those pics were taken from this island! Hot, hot, hot....no rain, relentless winds, plants and trees dying... I know this weather is a tourist's dream/paradise, but I do believe we all need a break soon!! I did see that St. Croix picked up a little rain yesterday but none on this island.

Lindy
Quoting 23. K8eCane:

Oh my goodness Dr Masters! This is the best news i have heard in a while. Im excited for you, having sort of watched WU grow. This is great and I will be watching!


I'm afraid that we'll have to stock up on troll spray before this airs... Time will tell.
Quoting 30. ChillinInTheKeys:



I'm afraid that we'll have to stock up on troll spray before this airs... Time will tell.



Im sure someone on here has a can of it laying around
We are likely witnessing the beginnings of the strongest El-Nino ever recorded and could top the 1877/1878 El-Nino for the #1 spot if this keeps up as we have already smashed 1997 with 10 consecutive weeks with all ENSO regions above 1C beating the old record by 2 weeks set back in 1997 and we are still early in this event. Crazy stuff!

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago Cambridge, MA
The atmospheric response to El Nino is now forecast to rise to +3.8 standard deviations above avg, an August record!
I don't know if I could've withstood that kind of grueling interview. Thanks for the preview, Doc.
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

We are likely witnessing the beginnings of the strongest El-Nino ever recorded and could top the 1877/1878 El-Nino for the #1 spot if this keeps up as we have already smashed 1997 with 10 consecutive weeks with all ENSO regions above 1C beating the old record by 2 weeks set back in 1997 and we are still early in this event. Crazy stuff!

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago Cambridge, MA
The atmospheric response to El Nino is now forecast to rise to +3.8 standard deviations above avg, an August record!



+3.8 SD is about a 1 in 10,000 yr event.
Looking good, JeffMasters and Mike Bettes!
If the video is an indication of the tone of the show - you got a hit on your hands.
:)
Quoting 19. HimacaneBrees:

Put Jennifer Delgado or Stephanie Abrams on the show and I'll definitely tune in. Other than that, college football starts in approximately 43 days 8 hours 45 minutes and 37 seconds. But who's keeping up with it exactly?
Absolutely DO NOT put Stephanie Abrams on that show. She is one of the reasons I quit watching .... whatever she learned in school did not make it to her on camera presentations. Plus she portrayed herself [imo, anyway] as a goofy ditz. NOT. NOT!!
Quoting 5. SunnyDaysFla:

My cable provider no longer offers TWC. Will there be any way for me to see it? On the internet perhaps?


Some of the show's segments will be made available on the WU video page, but the entire two hours will not be made available, so if you don't get TWC through your cable provider, you will not be able to watch full episodes at this time. We also plan on putting out exclusive content online that viewers won't able to see on-air.

Dr. M.
Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

We are likely witnessing the beginnings of the strongest El-Nino ever recorded and could top the 1877/1878 El-Nino for the #1 spot if this keeps up as we have already smashed 1997 with 10 consecutive weeks with all ENSO regions above 1C beating the old record by 2 weeks set back in 1997 and we are still early in this event. Crazy stuff!

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago Cambridge, MA
The atmospheric response to El Nino is now forecast to rise to +3.8 standard deviations above avg, an August record!



Florida will probably get a wetter winter than the current rainy season.
Quoting 35. OviedoWatcher:



3.8 SD is about a 1 in 10,000 yr event.


it's extremely rare indeed and this coupled with another significant SOI crash which will cause the 30 day values to get as low as -25 in a couple of weeks on the 30 day average. Also the ESPI is hovering around 2.70 which is getting close to surpassing 1997 at its peak. insane if you think of all these combinations coming together fairly rapidly.

Just take a look at this Euro in 5 days with all the very high pressures over Australia with low pressures across the Central & E Pac. Likely -40 to -50 daily averages on the SOI coming this weekend. Also shows well of the 850 wind anomalies with another strong WWB coming too.



850 wind anomalies

#38: Nice to learn that we off-cablers (or even foreigners) should be able to relish at least a piece of the cake of your qualities as an actor, doc :-) Thanks for all the efforts.
ON a serious note for all the guys out there who prefer women as their wx reporters ....

I don't care how hot, sexy, cute, etcetera the woman is ... just make sure she is a genuine wx geek ... able to talk the talk. There are more than enough of them out there, if they can get a chance to show what they know. Just don't put any cutesy breathless wx ditz types on there.
Wonderful news. I started following Weather Underground in 2005 when I joined the Disaster Medical Assistance Team (DMAT). Federal program for disaster relief that each state has. I found that you Jeff Masters are the best for hurricane information, in which we would be going into possibly. I love your site and I really like Mike Bettes so this is going to be great. I have advertised for you for years. Hoorah!!! If I can be of any assist in anything let me know. I am a weather geek in a major way ~
Here is the correct link to the blog. Link
Quoting 29. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Quoting 21. CaribBoy

I'd almost think those pics were taken from this island! Hot, hot, hot....no rain, relentless winds, plants and trees dying... I know this weather is a tourist's dream/paradise, but I do believe we all need a break soon!! I did see that St. Croix picked up a little rain yesterday but none on this island.

Lindy


To feel in paradise, I need a beautiful lush vegetation, clear blue sky with beautiful CBs in the distance... AND regular heavy showers!! :)) ...but also beautiful white sand beaches with crystal blue waters.

Based on this, St Barts is not really a paradise to me in 2015... Too much SAL, too much winds, dying vegetation, no rain, choppy sea... I've really seen better condition in 2010, 2011, 2012 but also in 2008, 2006, 2005...

Hoping for a change in the weather soon
Quoting 45. CaribBoy:



To feel in paradise, I need a beautiful lush vegetation, clear blue sky with beautiful CBs in the distance... AND regular heavy showers!! :)) ...but also beautiful white sand beaches with crystal blue waters.

Based on this, St Barts is not really a paradise to me in 2015... Too much SAL, too much winds, dying vegetation, no rain, choppy sea... I've really seen better condition in 2010, 2011, 2012 but also in 2008, 2006, 2005...

Hoping for a change in the weather soon
I thought you guys would get some relief from that Twave that just passed through ... unfortunately it seems to have stayed further south than originally anticipated ...
I posted this twice - Sorry. Wonderful news. I started following Weather Underground in 2005 when I joined the Disaster Medical Assistance Team (DMAT). Federal program for disaster relief that each state has. I found that you Jeff Masters are the best for hurricane information, in which we would be going into possibly. I love your site and I really like Mike Bettes so this is going to be great. I have advertised for you for years. Hoorah!!! If I can be of any assist in anything let me know. I am a weather geek in a major way ~
12Z NAM spins up a Tropical Storm very fast east of FL later this weekend. Looks like movement will be north once the system forms so folks in NC take heed of this developing situation and monitor the models for possible future impact. Could be a intense little system coming.
Quoting 20. NoobDave:

There is one thing I don t particularly understand. The high concentrations of Saharan dust seems to have helped suppress the activity of tropical storms in recent years in the Atlantic, but I keep on reading that Sahara is shrinking as the global warming kicks in, shouldn t that mean less SAL on average in Atlantict contrary to the high concentrations we have seen in recent years?



Everything I've heard and read about the Sahara indicated it was growing...

"the Sahara is pretty darn big, and getting bigger everyday. Just in the time since John Glenn first orbited the earth, it has expanded by another 250,000 sq mi to now cover over 3.6 million square miles." <---Link

"It's still growing every day, expanding by over 3.5 million miles in the last 60 years." <--- Link


EDIT: In 2009, it appears that NatGeo claimed it is "greening."
Sahara Desert Greening Due to Climate Change?


Hurricane Frances 2004
Quoting 46. Climate175:


What does the rest of the run show?
How do I get this new show when TWC and Verizon Fios don't have a current carriage agreement and haven't for months? Why can't we just get along?
Quoting 52. washingtonian115:

What does the rest of the run show?
Quoting 15. unknowncomic:

Saharan dust strongest in decade, but will it help keep tropics quiet?
Link



The skies over Spain are at the moment totally clear of the Saharan dust which they call calimar here.
When it is around the sky is a sort of pink colour and below is a shot of it when its about 50% as bad as it gets near my house.
We are probably about 500 miles north of the edge of the Sahara and it is growing at quite a rate but mainly to the south and east, having nowhere really to go to the west and it has yet to get over the Mediterranean Sea but there is a small proper desert, the only one in Europe above Almeria in southern Spain.



On the TV channels subject, competition's are needed with the winner getting a transport ticket to be a guest on the show!
What does the rest of the run show?



fizzle
Quoting 51. Climate175:

Hurricane Frances 2004


Unfortunately, those days will come again. We just enjoy the times when they aren't around directly over our heads.
Quoting 38. JeffMasters:



Some of the show's segments will be made available on the WU video page, but the entire two hours will not be made available, so if you don't get TWC through your cable provider, you will not be able to watch full episodes at this time. We also plan on putting out exclusive content online that viewers won't able to see on-air.

Dr. M.


Thank you for the reply. It is nice to know that at least a little will be available.

I never realized that there was a video page, so thanks for that too
And here, if you like, another bunch of European heatwave news:

At my place near Frankfurt temps will cool down in the next hours. Predicted storms for today were a complete bust though. However, southern Germany got some storms this afternoon. In some regions (like mine) the lack of rain this spring and now this summer as well takes its toll on the harvest.


Hydrological balance for Germany so far this summer (source; with the spring balance as well).

In other countries:

France hit by fires and drought as sun stays out
The Local (France), Published: 22 Jul 2015 12:06 GMT+02:00
High summer temperatures and a lack of rain has meant water restrictions had to be imposed on swathes of France on Wednesday, while others face potential forest fires in the south west and avalanches in the south east. ...

Luxemburg: Warning issued for wildfires and low water levels
Published on Wednesday, 22 July, 2015 at 13:44
(MH) After a month-long heatwave across the Grand-Duchy, the nature and forests administration has warned of an increased risk of wildfires and low water levels, advising residents to follow certain rules in order to avoid catastrophes. ...

Gazpacho: Spaniards are going crazy for cold soup
The Local (Spain), Published: 22 Jul 2015 16:21 GMT+02:00

22 provinces on alert for heat and storms across Spain

Girl, 5, dies after mum leaves her in boiling car
The Local (Switzerland) Published: 22 Jul 2015 10:41 GMT+02:00

Tornado predicted as Italy heatwave ends
The Local (Italy) Published: 22 Jul 2015 10:15 GMT+02:00
The hot stuffy weather brought by the hellish heatwave Caronte is set to end this weekend, but meteorologists are warning that it's no cause for celebration.
The imminent arrival of the so-called Cyclone Circe this weekend will bring cold air from the Atlantic and send temperatures plummeting by up to 10 degrees Celsius across Italy.
Cyclone Circe, named after the potent Greek goddess of magic, will create conditions ripe for the formation of powerful storms.
Meteorologist Antonio Sanò told Today.it: "The fresher air will clash with the hotter air accumulated recently, creating a lethal mix perfect for the formation of violent storms and tornadoes." ...

Quoting 56. LargoFl:


It looks like the NAM is starting to catch on.


I say it will peak below 2.0

That is great news and ensures the healthy survival for this Blog as well as all the other blogs within the WU family. To the degree that it might increase the traffic on this blog from other viewers in the future, it would be nice to see less "catfights" on here and to see folks stay on topic and remain respectful to one another; especially during active tropical threats to the US when folks come here for the excellent impacts analysis from Dr. M.
66. vis0
while we wait here (at my ml-d reset blog pg3) cmmnt#125 some recent pTwF that might be reevaluated at the end of the season...or not.

once you view THAT, come back here as to WxU's takeover of WxCh... i 'll take Cantore's clicker, chair & pizza orders. i bet barbamz raids the URL: connections list, Patrap's going for the "dish".
Quoting 64. wunderkidcayman:



I say it will peak below 2.0




Can you please help me understand what the difference is between the "spread corrected" chart and the one that Scott posts? My apologies if you have already done this.
It's impressive to see the Atlantic so arid in late July.

When there is a serious threat from a Major, here is the place to come for rolling relevant info, obs, and other.

Even post Storm, there is much info to be disseminated here.

In all the travels and folks I've met, they all say the same, "weather underground" has been their first choice after local info to get a broad picture of what is forecasted, occurring and real time events as well.

That's what makes this place what it is, the people and the sharing.

Wunderground has been doing social media since the first entry here, 10 years ago.
SAL wains back and forth from week to week; there was a nice break last week, with a few healthy waves able to cross the Atlantic intact and bring some rain to the lower/lesser Antilles. It has picked up again the last several days and it shows (wave suppression):

71. vis0
MANTRA:: O(H)-Hi-Victors?
72. JRRP
Quoting 20. NoobDave:

There is one thing I don t particularly understand. The high concentrations of Saharan dust seems to have helped suppress the activity of tropical storms in recent years in the Atlantic, but I keep on reading that Sahara is shrinking as the global warming kicks in, shouldn t that mean less SAL on average in Atlantict contrary to the high concentrations we have seen in recent years?


The Sahara is a very big place, added to that there is also Arabia right next to it.
The whole area is at the moment very hot with its heat encroaching into southern Europe. Basically from about 10 degrees north temps are on a daily basis hotter than most people will ever experience, hot enough to dry your eyes out.
Add to this an east wind and the sand grinds itself into dust that becomes airborne heading off to the west.

Very cool Dr. Masters, hopefully the theme song doesn't include Eddie Vedder...

Really windy thunderstorm blew through the OBX yesterday, took a neat photo of it over the ocean after it passed.


Viewers will also get to know the WunderFriends, four characters created by WU artists that will come to life in animated form




i think i saw them when i was a kid




Quoting 69. Patrap:

When there is a serious threat from a Major, here is the place to come for rolling relevant info, obs, and other.

Even post Storm, there is much info to be disseminated here.

In all the travels and folks I've met, they all say the same, "weather underground" has been their first choice after local info to get a broad picture of what is forecasted, occurring and real time events as well.

That's what makes this place what it is, the people and the sharing.

Wunderground has been doing social media since the first entry here, 10 years ago.


Precisely. That is what got me hooked to WU back in 2004 before joining WU - after the fiasco of Frances and Jeanne.
Here is a nice concise primer on the SAL issue and tropical storms from the CIMMS site:


Saharan Air Layer/Tropical Cyclone Interactions: Tropical cyclones (TCs) interact with the SAL in several ways. Some TCs are embedded in the SAL for their entire life cycle and often struggle to intensify beyond strong tropical storm strength (>=34 kt to <64 kt). Tropical Storm Chantal of 2001 is an example of this type of interaction (Java Loop 1). Other TCs like Joyce of 2000 can be overrun by the faster moving SAL and are quickly weakened (Java Loop 2). TCs that are embedded in the SAL early in their life cycle and later emerge from the SAL can often be seen undergoing a period of rapid intensification. Hurricane Erin of 2001 is an example of such an interaction (Java Loop 3). 
matt.....you have the standard version.....



then you have the pdf corrected



and then you have the pdf and spead corrected



now here is the official explanation......

"This page displays seasonal SST anomalies from the NCEP coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2). The forecast is first bias corrected based on the hindcasts and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) daily SST analysis for 1999-2010. Anomalies are then defined as the departure from NCDC's 1982-2010 climatology. More forecast plots (with 1999-2010 climatology) are available at CFSv2 seasonal forecast display. For Nino3.4 SST index, two additional versions are included in the table. One uses a probability density function (PDF) correction and the other uses a PDF correction plus an additional spread adjustment.


however my simple version is.....it sucks
Quoting 62. Climate175:

It looks like the NAM is starting to catch on.
yeah sure does.
It looks like the NAM is starting to catch on.


i'm not sure who is it trying to catch on with?......all the more reliable models for tropical genesis are not developing this
Quoting 81. LargoFl:

yeah sure does.


Conditions for storm formation looked more promising yesterday.
i think i saw them when i was a kid

Did they experience flatulence in a hot tub with a reference to "when the wind will pass" like on
the four wunderfriends promo?
Quoting 82. ricderr:

It looks like the NAM is starting to catch on.


i'm not sure who is it trying to catch on with?......all the more reliable models for tropical genesis are not developing this
Actually the models have been flipping back and forth, so when I say catch on I mean it is hinting at what the GFS and Euro have been hinting over the past few days. I mean I wonder if it would be also catching fish, but who knows! LOL
Did they experience flatulence in a hot tub with a reference to "when the wind will pass" like on
the four wunderfriends promo?


thankfully no
Quoting 64. wunderkidcayman:



I say it will peak below 2.0


And when it hits 2.0 what will you do? ;)
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 6h6 hours ago Cambridge, MA
The atmospheric response to El Nino is now forecast to rise to +3.8 standard deviations above avg, an August record!
It seems the persistent upper ridge is retrograding enough to allow more TS to come around the

Eastern periphery and help us out in SE Louisiana.
thankfully no
As nrt suggested, now we want to know the four friends names...
Perfect dramatic story telling... revealing the characters like peeling an onion. Deeper and deeper a little at a time.
The promo's hilarious and intriguing. Way to go, TWC.
Quoting 80. ricderr:

matt.....you have the standard version.....



then you have the pdf corrected



and then you have the pdf and spead corrected



now here is the official explanation......

"This page displays seasonal SST anomalies from the NCEP coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2). The forecast is first bias corrected based on the hindcasts and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) daily SST analysis for 1999-2010. Anomalies are then defined as the departure from NCDC's 1982-2010 climatology. More forecast plots (with 1999-2010 climatology) are available at CFSv2 seasonal forecast display. For Nino3.4 SST index, two additional versions are included in the table. One uses a probability density function (PDF) correction and the other uses a PDF correction plus an additional spread adjustment.


however my simple version is.....it sucks


Ric, thanks for posting, but this doesn't answer my question. The last line states "one uses a probability density function (PDF) correction and the other uses a PDF correction plus an additional spread adjustment". So....what is a "probability density function correction" and what does it mean to add an "additional spread adjustment" to it? Would love to know what those terms actually mean, as I have no idea.
Quoting 58. rmbjoe1954:



UnFortunately, those days will come again. We must enjoy bare the times when they aren't around directly over our heads.


Fixed it to better represent the blog, lately.
Quoting 82. ricderr:

It looks like the NAM is starting to catch on.


i'm not sure who is it trying to catch on with?......all the more reliable models for tropical genesis are not developing this


There's a higher than usual probability of TC genesis and having a model, even if not one of the more reliable models, developing something is a sign to watch. The CMC also develops what looks to be a tropical storm. In addition to this, the GFS/Euro have both developed a tropical storm on some of their previous runs the past few days. Of course there is a lack of consistency among model runs, but that's definitely a sign that something may develop. If anything, it'll give us all something to watch this weekend.
Ric, thanks for posting, but this doesn't answer my question. The last line states "one uses a probability density function (PDF) correction and the other uses a PDF correction plus an additional spread adjustment". So....what is a "probability density function correction" and what does it mean to add an "additional spread adjustment" to it? Would love to know what those terms actually mean, as I have no idea.


matt....read this....take two aspirin...and call me in the morning...on second thought...two aspirin might not be enough



Link
Quoting 94. Drakoen:



Fixed it to better represent the blog, lately.
psssst'....

Application of a probability density function-based atmospheric light-scattering correction to carbon dioxide retrievals from GOSAT over-sea observations

Andrey Bril, , Sergey Oshchepkov, Tatsuya Yokota


Abstract

We present the application of a photon path length probability density function (PPDF) formalism to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) retrievals from reflected sunlight measured by the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) over the ocean. GOSAT short-wave infrared (SWIR) radiance spectra detected over the ocean surface were shown to be strongly affected by atmospheric light-scattering. In particular, retrievals of column-averaged CO2 dry-volume mixing ratios (XCO2) were characterised by steady negative bias and significant scatter when optical path modification due to high variability of clouds and aerosols was neglected. Considering that the ocean surface in SWIR is dark in all directions except that of sun-glint observation, PPDF radiative transfer modelling was simplified by neglecting the contribution of photons that interacted with both aerosols/cloud particles and the ocean surface. This permitted implementation of an atmospheric correction technique based on simultaneous retrievals of CO2 concentrations and two PPDF parameters: effective altitude of the aerosol layer and relative layer reflectivity. Using this correction, both bias and scatter of carbon dioxide retrievals were significantly reduced. The retrieval results of XCO2 statistically agreed (both spatially and temporally) with those predicted by the atmospheric transport model.

Highlights

► PPDF-based atmospheric correction of GOSAT over-sea CO2 observation was performed. ► GOSAT PPDF-retrievals detected spatial and temporal variations of XCO2 over-oceans. ► Precision of XCO2 retrievals over-oceans was preliminary estimated as 1–2 ppmv.

Quoting 96. ricderr:

Ric, thanks for posting, but this doesn't answer my question. The last line states "one uses a probability density function (PDF) correction and the other uses a PDF correction plus an additional spread adjustment". So....what is a "probability density function correction" and what does it mean to add an "additional spread adjustment" to it? Would love to know what those terms actually mean, as I have no idea.


matt....read this....take two aspirin...and call me in the morning...on second thought...two aspirin might not be enough



Link


LOL! This is clearly a time when someone needs to explain it as if they were talking to a 4th grader.
Quoting 92. Barefootontherocks:

thankfully no
As nrt suggested, now we want to know the four friends names...
Perfect dramatic story telling... revealing the characters like peeling an onion. Deeper and deeper a little at a time.
The promo's hilarious and intriguing. Way to go, TWC.



The sun is "Solita". The happy cloud is "Claude". The angry cloud got dubbed "Brutus". And finally, the happy go-lucky raindrop we named "Tubby".
Quoting 89. Gearsts:

And when it hits 2.0 what will you do? ;)


The better question is when it peaks below or at 2.0 and falls off what will you do


watching!!
There's a higher than usual probability of TC genesis and having a model, even if not one of the more reliable models, developing something is a sign to watch. The CMC also develops what looks to be a tropical storm. In addition to this, the GFS/Euro have both developed a tropical storm on some of their previous runs the past few days. Of course there is a lack of consistency among model runs, but that's definitely a sign that something may develop. If anything, it'll give us all something to watch this weekend.

to a point i agree with you......however....the only model to run with this besides the nam was the cmc...and it stopped it two days ago...the gfs hinted...but never really gave us fruition....and now...except for the nam...which keeps going back and forth.....none other show it......so would i watch it?....well....yes....it's the only area we have even a small chance right now...but i'm really not very excited about the chances

Quoting 101. wunderkidcayman:



The better question is when it peaks below or at 2.0 and falls off what will you do
Well is normal for the El nino to drop off later, i can't wait for this El nino to banish next year. I also had my peak at 1.5c and look how wrong i was.
Quoting 94. Drakoen:



Fixed it to better represent the blog, lately.


Lol.
The better question is when it peaks below or at 2.0 and falls off what will you do



we've been taught by the best....when wrong...just go onto the next month...the next and then the next...on and on.....
Quoting 106. ricderr:

The better question is when it peaks below or at 2.0 and falls off what will you do



we've been taught by the best....when wrong...just go onto the next month...the next and then the next...on and on.....
Couldn't have said it better ;)
Try living in it....its awful
the heat is intense

Quoting 68. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's impressive to see the Atlantic so arid in late July.


Quoting 83. rmbjoe1954:



Conditions for storm formation looked more promising yesterday.
yeah, im waiting to see how it looks maybe Friday.
waves of rain deluge continues in e. cen. florida
Quoting 109. LargoFl:

yeah, im waiting to see how it looks maybe Friday.
I don't think NHC will mention anything until tomorrow evening or very early Friday morning. As for next week's potential system, I would wait till we are closer to the time frame it's forecast to develop, it is still 5 days away.
So if a storm develops off the east coast maybe it will dry up some around here in the Tampa area ??that usually seems to happen
12z UKMET for the first time showing potential off the Florida East Coast..

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T 126 : 28.0N 81.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 28.07.2015 28.2N 79.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 28.07.2015 29.4N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
Quoting 113. intampa:

So if a storm develops off the east coast maybe it will dry up some around here in the Tampa area ??that usually seems to happen
nws says a front will stall out over florida this weekend into Monday,so no drying out for us just yet.
All I know is NHC will wait for the low to get off the coast before they mention it, that's what they did with Claudette.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2h2 hours ago

8-days away, ECMWF 00z develops coastal tropical storm out of stationary front along SE coast.
Danny in July?
12z Euro running..

72 hours
Current Conditions (Station reported 5 seconds ago)
96.1 °F
Feels Like 114.6 °F
3.0 mph, Wind from WNW
Gusts 5.0 mph
Dew Point: 79 °F
Humidity: 58%
Pressure: 29.9 in

Feels Like 114.6 °F

NE Fla.
Possibly something north of Venezuela?
96


120


144
Mike seems like a cool guy.

Important side note: I really think they need to get rid of that screeching noise or use a softer static noise during transitions. It is very unpleasant without headphones and bordering on physically painful with headphones.
  OH, good another TV show, on a channel I don't get.
Thanks for the interesting Post Dr. Masters...
Me (skeptically): "Hmmm…and that's an accredited university??"

Mike (incredulously): "Well…yeah, of course!"

Trust, but verify. There was a whole expose in the NY Times recently about these fraudsters who invent not only fake diplomas, but fake colleges to award them.
Current Conditions (Station reported 2 seconds ago)
96.8 °F
Feels Like 117.7 °F

Feels Like 117.7 °F

UNCLE!!! (waves white flag)
Quoting 128. aquak9:

Current Conditions (Station reported 2 seconds ago)
96.8 °F
Feels Like 117.7 °F

Feels Like 117.7 °F

UNCLE!!! (waves white flag)

amazing how HOT it feels today,whew
12z Run

Quoting 132. ncstorm:

12z Run


its good your alert NC, hope its just a rainmaker for you folks up there.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH HUMIDITIES CREATES HEAT INDICES OF 108 TO 113 DEGREES.
THE HEAT INDEX IS A MEASURE OF HOW HOT IT FEELS WHEN THE EFFECT OF
HUMIDITY COMBINE WITH THE TEMPERATURE. HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CAN
CREATE DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WHERE INDIVIDUALS MAY BECOME
CRITICALLY EXHAUSTED IF OUTDOORS. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN
AN AIR-CONDITIONING IF POSSIBLE...REMAIN OUT OF THE SUN...AND
CHECK ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS WHO MAY BE SENSITIVE TO HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES.HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 911.

&&

$$
Quoting 126. PedleyCA:

  OH, good another TV show, on a channel I don't get.
Thanks for the interesting Post Dr. Masters...


We neither Ped, Cant this TV channel thing be streamed over the Internet so as we can all get to see it?
It seems that we can get all sorts of obscure things from unknown and uncharted land, island and the odd old WW2 outposts but a major TV Channel from the east coast of the USA is out of bounds.
Some of the channels I can get here are obscure to say the least coming in from the middle east and even Afghanistan but no weather channel Internet!

Next moan.
That storm over Canada on Tuesday posted at, 124. ncstorm , is it for real with rains or just insane winds to jockey the fires along?

Still hot here at about 41/C but not all over the country today, some areas have flash floods instead.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 22 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located about 500 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become a
little better defined since yesterday, however, the shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Upper-level winds have
become a little more conducive for development and this system is
still expected to become a tropical depression during the next day
or so. The low is forecast to move over cooler waters on Friday and
development after that time is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
Quoting 102. hurricanes2018:



watching!!
update this map now add blue color now
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS ALONG
ABOUT 28W FROM 10N-19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE WAVE HAS A NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE COMPONENT AND IS ONLY
DETECTABLE VIA THE GFS-BASED TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS NORTH OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...AS THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DUSTY SAHARAN AIR LAYER LIMITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG ABOUT 66W
SOUTH OF 20N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE HAS A DISTINCT SURFACE TROUGH
AS SHOWN BY THE ASCAT AND WINDSAT WIND VECTORS. THE WAVE IS ALSO
EVIDENT IN THE LESSER ANTILLES RAWINDSONDES AND THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-
20 N BETWEEN 60W-67W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG ABOUT 78W
SOUTH OF 18N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE HAS A NEGLIGIBLE SURFACE COMPONENT...BUT
IS OBSERVABLE VIA THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND
CARIBBEAN RAWINDSONDES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG ABOUT 84W
SOUTH OF 20N TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS BECOMING INDISTINCT WITH ALL
METHODS OF DETECTION AND MAY BE MERGING WITH THE WAVE TO ITS
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SOUTH OF 15N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE
Quoting 58. rmbjoe1954:



Unfortunately, those days will come again. We just enjoy the times when they aren't around directly over our heads.


About the time of the last frame, I left the place I had stayed and drove back home.. less than a mile. Took me an hour to clear the loooong driveway and get in. Found my cottage still intact, with a 28' cuddy trapped next to my dock aground on my beach. It had spilled 100 gallons of gas from the seas crashing over the stern and submerging the now violated tanks all into the significant amount of destroyed dock material piled up against the bluff I lived on. Enough of a cove to capture a LOT of green timber, covered in gas.. the wind helped as it rotated in passage, but it took days before i wasn't afraid of fire. The boat owner did not get it out before Jeanne arrived.
If you have an HDMI TV you an get TWC on Apple TV..the streamer is about 65 bucks at Walmart..

I personally have both a streamer and Directv so I may tune in to see whats up..
Quoting 104. Gearsts:

Well is normal for the El nino to drop off later, i can't wait for this El nino to banish next year. I also had my peak at 1.5c and look how wrong i was.


Well we make forecast we wait and watch and then ajust to current conditions that all we can do
Quoting 144. wunderkidcayman:



Well we make forecast we wait and watch and then ajust to current conditions that all we can do
You could have said that earlier.
Quoting 146. Gearsts:

You could have said that earlier.


I did but I had to head out
I though the post was sent but when I got back it wasn't
Quoting 147. wunderkidcayman:



I did but I had to head out
I though the post was sent but when I got back it wasn't
I'm just joking, forget i said anything.
149. vis0

Quoting 33. StormTrackerScott:

We are likely witnessing the beginnings of the strongest El-Nino ever recorded and could top the 1877/1878 El-Nino for the #1 spot if this keeps up as we have already smashed 1997 with 10 consecutive weeks with all ENSO regions above 1C beating the old record by 2 weeks set back in 1997 and we are still early in this event. Crazy stuff!

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago Cambridge, MA
The atmospheric response to El Nino is now forecast to rise to +3.8 standard deviations above avg, an August record!

First i'm obligated to reply 'cause you used  one of the nicknames my friends call me "crazy stuff"

Reply at my zilly cmmnts, pg3 cmmnt#15 so that i do not start an off topic avalanche.
Quoting 128. aquak9:

Current Conditions (Station reported 2 seconds ago)
96.8 °F
Feels Like 117.7 °F

Feels Like 117.7 °F

UNCLE!!! (waves white flag)



The uncle waved back.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
341 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 340 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CRAIG
FIELD TO NORMANDY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...ORANGE PARK...PONTE VEDRA BEACH...UNF...FRUIT
COVE...MANDARIN...ARLINGTON...NEPTUNE BEACH...ORTEGA...CRAIG
FIELD...RIVERSIDE...SAN MARCO...NOCATEE...DURBIN...SWITZERLAND...
FLEMING ISLAND...NAS JAX...LAKESIDE...BAYARD AND BAYMEADOWS.
Quoting 143. hydrus:




The GFS is weird in that it often develops a strange qpf dry slot with coastal rain events, even though with such an event, the coast will likely see the most. In general, the GFS has why underdone its qpf compared to actual results in this area, like last week, it had only an inch or two along the west coast of Florida, when average rainfall was 4-7 inches locally higher areas of 10 inches or more.

Given that the GFS is much wetter than it was last time with a similar pattern to what soaked this area last week, it's safe to say this could possibly be quite a soaking around here.

Also, the main difference between this event and last week, is that last week, it was just a lot of moisture and a very weak surface trough, this limited heavy rains to just the coastal areas. This time around, models have a stronger trough and some upper level support, i.e. deeper more organized convective bursts that will likely have better inland penetration due to upper support expected this time.
Quoting 125. ChrisRedford:

Mike seems like a cool guy.

Important side note: I really think they need to get rid of that screeching noise or use a softer static noise during transitions. It is very unpleasant without headphones and bordering on physically painful with headphones.


I asked the TWC producer to tone down the sound, and he said he would for future segments. Thanks for bringing this up.

Dr. M.
I think that we can all agree that the climate changes. The debate come to play when the discussion of climate gets mixed with the Government. (a brief side note: It is the business of government to collect money to support those projects/policies that benefit the nation. There I just burned my soap box.)
What I am really looking forward to hearing and watching, will be discussions about the collection of data from the satellite era (1970 to present) vs adjust data prior to this period and since. This one topic could be very interesting and revel how data is use for models, how it is collected. I have some strong opinions about the topic climate change when discussed in the talking head world of TV. But that is a topic for another forum.

Thank You Jeff and Bob for moving Wundergound forward and raising the Bar every chance you get.

Quoting 113. intampa:

So if a storm develops off the east coast maybe it will dry up some around here in the Tampa area ??that usually seems to happen


Sometimes yes, but not necessarily, if it forms on an old trough that has also settled over us which is what is forecast, it probably won't dry out. The cases where it does is when upper high pressure is building into the wake of the system. But there is no indication of upper ridging building in in the wake of any east coast system right now.
Quoting 152. Jedkins01:



The GFS is weird in that it often develops a strange qpf dry slot with coastal rain events, even though with such an event, the coast will likely see the most. In general, the GFS has why underdone its qpf compared to actual results in this area, like last week, it had only an inch or two along the west coast of Florida, when average rainfall was 4-7 inches locally higher areas of 10 inches or more.

Given that the GFS is much wetter than it was last time with a similar pattern to what soaked this area last week, it's safe to say this could possibly be quite a soaking around here.

Also, the main difference between this event and last week, is that last week, it was just a lot of moisture and a very weak surface trough, this limited heavy rains to just the coastal areas. This time around, models have a stronger trough and some upper level support, i.e. deeper more organized convective bursts that will likely have better inland penetration due to upper support expected this time.


The latest EURO and the GFS have a tropical or non tropical low forming near Florida. It was showing that North or South Carolina would have the low. This is interesting..
Quoting 145. hydrus:



Are these kinds of events common in the first few days of August?
A simple blog interpretation of what might happen with this type of system would be appreciated by casual observers from afar.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015

...MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND OVER THE DROUGHT AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...AND ALLOW FOR
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS WILL RANGE FROM 30
TO 50 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS LATE THIS WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE POPS WILL
RANGE FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MODELS AT THIS TIME ARE ALSO SHOWING TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND TO BE BETWEEN HALF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO ONE TO TWO INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

.LONG TERM...
THE THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE AREA FOR THIS TIME FRAME WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POPS TO BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN THIS WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Quoting 159. xpo172:

I hope they include some made up climate change science on the weather show.
You mean made-up stuff such as, "CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas," or "the planet isn't really warming up," or "it's all part of a natural cycle"? I doubt they will include any such nonsense; Dr. Masters, after all, is a scientist, so I'm sure he'll keep it honest.
Quoting 158. PlazaRed:


Are these kinds of events common in the first few days of August?
A simple blog interpretation of what might happen with this type of system would be appreciated by casual observers from afar.
The models have been trending toward a significant shift from the current pattern. A refreshing Autumn airmass would be possible for the eastern half of the U.S. If there are short waves or disturbances in the flow, severe weather will likely occur. Either way, a trough is expected to dig in pretty deep for early August. This does not happen too often. As in the case of Hurricane Charley, which was picked up by a unseasonably deep trof. Some type of low near Florida is also possible. Interesting set up if it were to pan out.

Quoting 117. Climate175:

All I know is NHC will wait for the low to get off the coast before they mention it, that's what they did with Claudette.

I said the same thing climate. I was wondering what took them so long.
Quoting 165. help4u:

Arctic global warming expedition canceled because of too much ice.Coast guard said the worst they have seen in 20 years in Hudson Bay.This was without any adjustments too the ice by Noaa.Have not figured out how to shrink the ice yet.LOL.
Its all melting.
looks good so far to the space station
3000 miles per hr. twc
docking is live on nasa tv tonight 6 hr twc
172. txjac
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
312 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 22 2015

Discussion...
strong upper level ridging continues to dominate the weather
across most of Texas. Southwesterly ll flow in place in southeast Texas this
morning should become more southerly with the inland push of the
seabreeze late this afternoon. Unfortunately this has limited the
mixing out of the dewpoints for the southern areas with heat index
readings of 103-108...108 at Galveston at 1 and 2 PM. A few
showers formed in the SW-NE oriented cloud streets today and as
they collided with the Bay breeze have produced a few larger
showers but so far not lightning. Can't rule out a brief
thunderstorm in eastern Harris/Liberty/Chambers/Brazoria counties
before 6 PM. Skies clear out this evening then may see a return of
St near cll toward morning. Continued drying of the column
tomorrow but with lighter southwest winds in the morning may lead
to a faster warm up and higher heat index readings for the coastal
areas. Expecting heat index reading 104-106 by noon for gls/psx
and probably peaking at 108 or 109. Will probably need a heat
advisory issuance with the midnight package for the coastal
counties if this forecast remains on track. Very few if any
showers expected tomorrow as ridging influence strengthens. Subsidence
increasing Friday through Sunday and Sunday may be the hottest day
yet this year. Iah forecast is 99-100 for Sunday which will
finally be 5 degrees above normal. Heat index reading will remain
high through the weekend at 100-108. Rain chances creep back in on
Monday and Tuesday as moisture increase again and the upper level
ridge pulls back far enough to the west to allow weak disturbances
to track into or at least towards the area from
Louisiana.
..limited to 20 probability of precipitation for now.

Woo-hoo, maybe some rain at the beginning of next week!
Tons of pop-up t-storms across the SE this afternoon and the "comet" streaking towards FL from the Atlantic:

Quoting 165. help4u:

Arctic global warming expedition canceled because of too much ice.Coast guard said the worst they have seen in 20 years in Hudson Bay.This was without any adjustments too the ice by Noaa.Have not figured out how to shrink the ice yet.LOL.


Hudson Bay melts out every year. Conspiracy theory and lack of scientific knowledge are all you got? You are playing the fiddle while the world burns. At least we have some music.
Quoting 159. xpo172:

I hope they include some made up climate change science on the weather show.


our scenario? most likely a stalled out front. models want to kick it out to sea. my leftover opinion? could meander around fl.
Quoting 174. Naga5000:



Hudson Bay melts out every year. Conspiracy theory and lack of scientific knowledge are all you got? You are playing the fiddle while the world burns. At least we have some music.


Never mind, mate. The Bible says the number of clowns is infinite.....or were they fools ? Whatever ....Deniers are too funny to be taken seriously.

From comment 151.

What I am really looking forward to hearing and watching, will be discussions about the collection of data from the satellite era (1970 to present) vs adjust data prior to this period and since. This one topic could be very interesting and revel how data is use for models, how it is collected. I have some strong opinions about the topic climate change when discussed in the talking head world of TV. But that is a topic for another forum.


I have a feeling there will be no discussion of satellite era data vs. "adjust data" because all satellite data is "adjust data" so no vs. exists. I don't know what your strong opinion about the topic climate change
is for sure, but this is a forum where climate change is discussed.

Combustion from human activity produces carbon dioxide.
Carbon dioxide traps long-wave infrared radiation while in the atmosphere of Earth which heats the planet.
A changed atmosphere affects all weather and climate one way or another.
This is an Earth weather blog so the effects of a changed climate on the weather are discussed here.

It is a really interesting subject and there are some pretty smart commenters including scientists that post great links in the comments that go even more in depth. I don't feel I am qualified to give a "welcome to the blog" due to my relative recent commenting history, but welcome anyway.

smiley face.
Here are some of older (8:00 am) models run clips showing a possible storm off the east coast towards the weekend for reference: not sure what the more recent runs are showing.
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I don't live on the east coast, so I guess I won't be watching it.
Quoting 174. Naga5000:



Hudson Bay melts out every year. Conspiracy theory and lack of scientific knowledge are all you got? You are playing the fiddle while the world burns. At least we have some music.


Naga, do you find the inclusion of "LOL" or a "hahaha" at the end of an aluminum foil hat conspiracy comment funny, scary, or both? After all can't we laugh at something besides ourselves once in a while?



On the topic the 2015 Arctic melt season it seems like that would be a great topic for one of the first shows. Conditions are a little hard to interpret right now, but by late August we should have a better view. The recent work by Dr. Jennifer Francis at Rutgers links the wavy Jetstream (that has brought us some crazy winters for one) to Arctic ice melt. It is a new hypothesis and perfectly debatable and interesting for the weather geek crowd.
Ok so what do we have in terms of updates on what we can expect from this trof?
..trofiness?
Quoting 186. Patrap:

..trofiness?


Naturally lol

Quoting 183. jeepmanjr:

I don't live on the east coast, so I guess I won't be watching it.
So 3-5PM on the West Coast. I will have to see if the TV in the GYM (Uverse) get that channel. Mine at Home is Antennae.
Quoting 184. wartsttocs:



Naga, do you find the inclusion of "LOL" or a "hahaha" at the end of an aluminum foil hat conspiracy comment funny, scary, or both? After all can't we laugh at something besides ourselves once in a while?



On the topic the 2015 Arctic melt season it seems like that would be a great topic for one of the first shows. Conditions are a little hard to interpret right now, but by late August we should have a better view. The recent work by Dr. Jennifer Francis at Rutgers links the wavy Jetstream (that has brought us some crazy winters for one) to Arctic ice melt. It is a new hypothesis and perfectly debatable and interesting for the weather geek crowd.


Terrifying. I find it terrifying, because it denotes maliciousness, either in knowing they are spreading lies or taking joy in attacking something they cannot understand. Either way, terrifying.

As for the melt, the numbers are a bit higher because of the slow melt in areas that usually melt full out (like Hudson Bay). That will be gone soon coupled with what looks like a strong finish to July. It may not be a record year, but certainly will get near, I think.
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N47W AND A 1025 MB AZORES
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N32W ARE DOMINATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOUTH OF THE HIGHS ARE PRODUCING NORTHEAST TRADEWINDS OF 10-15
KT EAST OF ABOUT 55W AND SOUTHEAST TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT FROM
ABOUT 55W-70W. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EAST OF FLORIDA
EXTENDING FROM 26N80W TO 30N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH
NORTH OF 27N. SURFACE WINDS WEST OF 70W ARE GENERALLY SW AT 10-
20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
45W-48W DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED TO THE WINDS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
191. vis0

Quoting 159. xpo172:

I hope they include some made up climate change science on the weather show.
Reply::@ zilly pg1 and read cmmnt#17
I just realized I'm going to be in the East Coast and still can't watch the new show thanks to college.

>.< Ugh.
Dear Jeff Masters,
This is wonderful news! Congratulations!

Several times I have gone on Wunderground and read warnings in the area I was living in, that I hadn't been aware of (one being the possibility of a tornado in Northern Florida). I appreciated the warning & took action right away.

Climate Change is a huge concern, and I'm thrilled that Wunder Ground TV will be available. Best wishes for the new merger with The Weather Channel.

Cheers!
Wanderoo
Quoting 189. Naga5000:

As for the melt, the numbers are a bit higher because of the slow melt in areas that usually melt full out (like Hudson Bay). That will be gone soon coupled with what looks like a strong finish to July. It may not be a record year, but certainly will get near, I think.


Ice melting is also a nonlinear dynamical process, it is all about conditions and the intrigued relationship of factors.

Here a picture how this dynamic looks like from Foxe Basin from 21.7.2015:



The EOSDIS Worldview tool from NASA is a real beauty for me and I can highly recommend it for all people who are interested in the Artic.
195. nima
Congratulations!

Such delightful news and a great move forward.
I know, but look...

Quoting 196. hydrus:

I know, but look...





.....that's no Moon'
Quoting 197. Patrap:




.....that's no Moon'
Yeah it is. Its the blue moon! ;^)
Last year it also seemed like the models would pick something up in the long range, then drop it in the mid-range, and then pick it back up when we were like 3-4 days out.
Double dutch doom ?

Quoting 198. Tornado6042008X:

Yeah it is. Its the blue moon! ;^)


you heard me send a prayer for, someone I really care for'


Quoting 202. Patrap:



you heard me send a prayer for, someone I really care for'



A low that size would bring a lot of cool air. and a change in the pattern. jmo
Quoting 203. hydrus:

A low that size would bring a lot of cool air. and a change in the pattern. jmo


Thats a likely thing to occur as thats a lotto mojo in the stream.
12z NAVGEM
Quoting 205. Climate175:

12z NAVGEM
it's time to mention.
Quoting 206. HurricaneAndre:

it's time to mention.
They will mention it once the low get's off the coast.
Quoting 204. Patrap:



Thats a likely thing to occur as thats a lotto mojo in the stream.


I hope the mojo doesn't win the jackpot in the lotto....
Quoting 204. Patrap:



Thats a likely thing to occur as thats a lotto mojo in the stream.
Indeed..The next few days will show if this is just temporary , or possible change coming.
Quoting 207. Climate175:

They will mention it once the low get's off the coast.


They will mention it if they have enough confidence in the models or their own forecasting abilities. A low is not required for a mention.
Quoting 116. LargoFl:

nws says a front will stall out over florida this weekend into Monday,so no drying out for us just yet.

Its amazing with the daily storms moving west to east in Central Florida that my location in Sanford has barely received anything. The last significant rain was last thursday when we had over an inch, but since then just trace to 0.04"
Hey, everyone....glad to see such interest in the WU Show. We're pretty stoked about it! For those of you on Verizon FiOS who can't access Weather Channel content: if you're motivated to switch carriers/plans, you can often find another provider that does carry TWC. Here's a website that will tell you more: Get the Weather Channel

Apple TV provides access to a wide array of TWC content, including local forecasts and taped segments. I'm checking to see if any of the WU Show will be accessible through Apple TV.

--Bob
Clearly, I have paid for all of these years and now I continue to get spam crap pop ups. How do I get rid of this?
Quoting 211. ProgressivePulse:



2004 ring a bell.


I thought the same thing. 2004 was a moderate El Nino year.
Quoting 215. dilligaf2u:

Clearly, I have paid for all of these years and now I continue to get spam crap pop ups. How do I get rid of this?
Get ABP ad block.It's free and works like a charm :) Cheers.
Quoting 155. 100451:

I think that we can all agree that the climate changes. The debate come to play when the discussion of climate gets mixed with the Government.


If you're referring to policy debate, then yes. That's policy, politicians, and the Big Bad FUD industry. If you're referring to scientific debate, then the debate over warming was settled a long time ago.

Quoting 155. 100451:
What I am really looking forward to hearing and watching, will be discussions about the collection of data from the satellite era (1970 to present) vs adjust data prior to this period and since.


All satellite data is adjusted. Those same greenhouse gases that keep are planet from being an iceball are the same gases that interfere with trying to take direct surface temperature measurements from space. Instead, the microwave band is used and temperatures are inferred from perturbations in the return signal. "Surface" temperatures from satellite data are actually recording the lower troposphere, not the surface. Even then there are numerous sources of errors and biases that can occur and have to be accounted for. In fact, it's fair to say that satellite measurements are the "most adjusted" out of all the data sets.

Surface measurements are also adjusted, since again there a number of sources of potential errors and biases.

In the scientific world, taking a measurement is a lot more involved than just checking a value on a sensor. After gathering the data, it can take months to years of analysis to turn those measurements into something meaningful. Raw measurements are almost never used as any competing peer would be quick to point out your research is flawed because you didn't account for the errors/biases of the sensors.

Quoting 155. 100451:
This one topic could be very interesting and revel how data is use for models, how it is collected.


There's nothing to reveal. It's all publicly available with a quick google search. Sites like GISS and NOAA have detailed descriptions of their methodologies. You can even download a bona fide climate model along with instructions and initialization data sets to run it (Model E available from GISS, for example). However, if you want to dive into the source code I recommend brushing up on your Fortran, physics, chemistry, and numerical methods. I know from personal experience that some parts Model E can get quite hairy.


221. Snofl
Another suggestion for TWC- Time to change the annoying music that happens when they do the Local on the Eights
NOOOO! No repeat of 2004 please. Do not feel like preparing every 3 weeks or so for a Hurricane!
Quoting 218. rmbjoe1954:



I thought the same thing. 2004 was a moderate El Nino year.
Please keep WU reporting about the weather instead of all these Weather Channel reality shows. Viewers come to TWC for weather news; that is, what the weather is doing and forecasts and not weather reality shows. So... please keep WU about the weather!
post 216 you been reported for breaking rule 13


13 Do not quote content which violates the Rules of the Road
latest run

18z
Quoting 202. Patrap:



you heard me send a prayer for, someone I really care for'





384 hours out. There'll be a ridge on the next run at 384 hours, then a trough, then a normal pattern, then a ridge, then a trough. ;)
A good tip for the novice wanting AGW Scientific info,pdf's,published studies etc, or those interested in learning about those questions asked, one can google the Question in their search engine, or google scholar.

Application of a probability density function-based atmospheric light-scattering correction to carbon dioxide retrievals from GOSAT over-sea observations

Andrey Bril, , Sergey Oshchepkov, Tatsuya Yokota


Abstract

We present the application of a photon path length probability density function (PPDF) formalism to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) retrievals from reflected sunlight measured by the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) over the ocean. GOSAT short-wave infrared (SWIR) radiance spectra detected over the ocean surface were shown to be strongly affected by atmospheric light-scattering. In particular, retrievals of column-averaged CO2 dry-volume mixing ratios (XCO2) were characterised by steady negative bias and significant scatter when optical path modification due to high variability of clouds and aerosols was neglected. Considering that the ocean surface in SWIR is dark in all directions except that of sun-glint observation, PPDF radiative transfer modelling was simplified by neglecting the contribution of photons that interacted with both aerosols/cloud particles and the ocean surface. This permitted implementation of an atmospheric correction technique based on simultaneous retrievals of CO2 concentrations and two PPDF parameters: effective altitude of the aerosol layer and relative layer reflectivity. Using this correction, both bias and scatter of carbon dioxide retrievals were significantly reduced. The retrieval results of XCO2 statistically agreed (both spatially and temporally) with those predicted by the atmospheric transport model.

Highlights

PPDF-based atmospheric correction of GOSAT over-sea CO2 observation was performed. GOSAT PPDF-retrievals detected spatial and temporal variations of XCO2 over-oceans. Precision of XCO2 retrievals over-oceans was preliminary estimated as 1ppmv.


Quoting 226. KoritheMan:



384 hours out. There'll be a ridge on the next run at 384 hours, then a trough, then a normal pattern, then a ridge, then a trough. ;)


Its like the powerball, the numbers change but never match mine for some reason?
Ok so guys I need some clarity will or will not happen the U.S. E coast storm
Quoting 224. Tazmanian:

post 216 you been reported for breaking rule 13


13 Do not quote content which violates the Rules of the Road


Taz, you're a good guy, but your single biggest flaw is being needlessly pedantic. There are plenty of times where you could ease up.
231. SuzK
Quoting 226. KoritheMan:



384 hours out. There'll be a ridge on the next run at 384 hours, then a trough, then a normal pattern, then a ridge, then a trough. ;)


Is....is that.....the North Pole???
Quoting 231. SuzK:



Is....is that.....the North Pole???


mhmm
234. Nell
That is wonderful I am so happy for you all and the good hard work you all done is now shown nationally. Kudos to you all and I will tune in!!!
Well. So, I've been mulling over this Mike Bettes decision all day today. I would be mulling wine. But it is hardly the season with mountain dew points reaching 180 degrees across the South all afternoon. So, I've just come up with a decision. Mike Bettes, since probably being a Northerner, as many Ohioans are, I propose an alternative. And that Bettes step aside. The youth need more access to the media to present their case. Of beer, or whatever. I believe Dr. Masters representing the Masters Race needs to reconsider. Here's my alternative candidate for Meteoric Rising To The Top of the Stratosphere Host for the WU - Weather Channel program. Here's someone who represents the power of youth, the Big 10 in general and Ohio State in particular. I present to you, the Onion's best candidate for this hosting season!



Ohio State, y'all!
Im terrible at understanding these ridge, low scenarios. Can someone explain to me what this means and how it is like 2004? Thank you in advance.
Quoting 226. KoritheMan:



384 hours out. There'll be a ridge on the next run at 384 hours, then a trough, then a normal pattern, then a ridge, then a trough. ;)
Dr. Masters, Mr. Henson and fellow wunderground members. I have made a violation of rule 13, and I'm really do apologize of what I did. Please don't ban me. Can you please forgive me.
Quoting 237. gator23:

Im terrible at understanding these ridge, low scenarios. Can someone explain to me what this means and how it is like 2004? Thank you in advance.



It was mere banter. In 2004 a monster trough set up over the great lakes and high pressure one the east coast, similar to the one pictured, for a long period of time. That trough directed the 2004 season to what it was. It directed storms in the area to land. What Kori is saying an that I agree with is that is a snapshot of a period of time and will likely fluctuate and change.
Thanks so much!
Quoting 239. ProgressivePulse:



It was mere banter. In 2004 a monster trough set up over the great lakes and high pressure one the east coast, similar to the one pictured, for a long period of time. That trough directed the 2004 season to what it was. It directed storms in the area to land. What Kori is saying an that I agree with is that is a snapshot of a period of time and will likely fluctuate and change.
Quoting 229. wunderkidcayman:

Ok so guys I need some clarity will or will not happen the U.S. E coast storm


Okay, here's what's going to happen.
Fifty-six likes for the blog! Can we please add a few zeros behind that? For the truth behind AGW this is the place now we just need more to care and tune in and get involved in the conversation.
Jus came across this on Dr. Michael Manns FB page tonight.

Damning Study Claims Earth Could See 10-Foot Sea Level Rise in Just 50 Years

By Tom McKay July 22, 2015

The planet Earth might be headed for climate disaster a lot sooner than most people think, according to a potentially groundbreaking new study from renowned Columbia University and former NASA researcher James Hansen.

Hansen's research used paleoclimate data from eras far in the past and concluded sea levels across Earth have historically been much higher during epochs with only slightly warmer global temperatures than today. Instead of the extra 1.5 feet of seawater the International Panel on Climate Change believes will result from an average global temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius, Hansen thinks it will be more like 10 feet or more.



The science: University of St. Thomas School of Engineering thermal and fluid sciences expert John P. Abraham told Mic that Hansen's study, which combines paleoclimatic and contemporary data with computer models, found "dramatic ice loss from Antarctica can occur very quickly by complex processes. For instance, warming of ocean waters near the ice sheet can cause dramatic losses in the ice which then melts and flows into the oceans. So, in a certain sense, this is melting from below, rather than melting from above."

The paper argues the rate of ice loss from West Antarctica may double about a decade from now. According to Hansen, linear estimates of rising sea levels, such as the consensus viewpoint reached by the IPCC, are much too conservative, and Earth's denizens could be dealing with 10-foot sea level rise within the next 50 to 200 years. As such, the paper concludes the 2 degrees Celsius warming limit recommended by the IPCC is "highly dangerous."

"We conclude that continued high emissions will make multi-meter sea level rise practically unavoidable and likely to occur this century," Hansen writes in his paper. "It is not difficult to imagine that conflicts arising from forced migrations and economic collapse might make the planet ungovernable, threatening the fabric of civilization."

But come on, isn't this a little alarmist? Perhaps a little. Hansen's study is in some ways a worst-case scenario story, and assumes ice loss in Antarctica (and on a lesser scale, Greenland) will continue to accelerate on timetables that some scientists dispute. It also relies on projections scientists currently lack the technical ability to evaluate on a probabilistic basis.

In an email to Mic, Princeton University geosciences expert Michael Oppenheimer called the analysis "clever" but "inherently speculative," noting the paper contained "no analysis of the probability of these outcomes versus others." More critical was the USA National Center for Atmospheric Research's Kevin E. Trenberth, who wrote to Mic, "there are way too many assumptions and extrapolations for anything here to be taken seriously other than to promote further studies."

Still, prominent climate scientists agreed Hansen is highlighting issues of serious concern. Pennsylvania State University geoscientist Richard Alley told Mic via email Hansen's paper was "interesting and important," and captured "the lopsided nature of what we don't know about sea-level rise, with the most-likely IPCC estimate well on the optimistic low-rise side of the possible outcomes."

Alley's colleague, Michael E. Mann, concurred, writing to Mic while he was "skeptical about some of the specifics," the article was a "sobering wakeup call to those who still dispute the threat posed by our ongoing burning of fossil fuels."



Ten-foot sea level rise is a big deal: As the Globe and Mail recently reported, even a 6-foot sea level rise would leave huge stretches of South Florida practically uninhabitable, including submerging more than half of Miami-Dade County underwater. Across the country at large, this level of sea rise would put the homes of more than 12.3 million Americans under water, in addition to exposing countless millions more to storm surges and extreme weather-related damages.

More broadly, Climate Central estimates more than half the area of 40 large U.S. cities is within 10 feet of current high tide levels. An extra 10 feet of ocean could endanger and displace hundreds of millions across the world.

Humanity doesn't "have much time to stay below the critical temperature thresholds that these authors have found," Abraham writes. "One hundred fifty million people across the globe live within 3 feet of sea level rise. How many more live within 16 feet? The cost of social upheaval and destroyed infrastructure will be enormous."

Mike Bettes should be a shoo-in for the Host role. A very personable, on-screen guy.
Damn Patrap, that there is going to be hard to refute by those who do so when it comes to fruition. And it will, the when is the real question. But record heat waves, record rain fall here in the US, Canada burning at record level, and all yet to come with a top five El-Nino should be enough to get people's attention. If only, best entertained, least informed with the level of info at one's fingertips, welcome to the machine of modern day America.
Oklahoma City rainfall YTD, 41.65". Normal YTD 20.81", departure from normal 20.84" Unprecedented? ;)
Quoting 240. gator23:

Quoting 229. wunderkidcayman:

Ok so guys I need some clarity will or will not happen the U.S. E coast storm


Come on WKC, you never shy from the clarity of your opinion. Remember that little purple blip that Sar said "Please!" about? Got a tropical storm out of it. Think you saw it first. :) What say ye?
Quoting 243. Patrap:





Sea's are already coming, millions of dollars every year to provide fresh sand for the beaches. Looking at Ocala for future beach front investments, lol. Downside is that the Gulf will loose it's barrier peninsula. We will adapt and life will go on, beach front Ocala sounds pretty awesome if you think about it. Gotta roll with the tide.
Goal is to have everyone care about the World. Not geopolitically speaking, but what we're doing to it. Results are already astounding. Syria is the prime example, which led to a vacuum for ISIS to expand. Historical drought led to Syrian Civil War. Deep read and social reality that goes much deeper than Assad just being a butcher, which he is. Why Pentagon is so worried about what is next due to AGW.
Indeed pp,

But, Did we not think that for all the comforts and ease of life from the Fossil Fuel Genie we have received, that the rent was not gonna come due?


Its here, driving in the left lane, and is passing the modeled future with obs and temps, quicker and with a pace that will only increase.

Plus,"Roll" with the Tide, is not spoken even in whispers here in LSU country,.....


: )

Quoting 251. Patrap:

Indeed pp,

But, Did we not think that for all the comforts and ease of life from the Fossil Fuel Genie we have received, that the rent was not gonna come due?


Its here, driving in the left lane, and is passing the modeled future with obs and temps, quicker and with a pace that will only increase.

Plus,"Roll" with the Tide, is not spoken even in whispers here in LSU country,.....


: )




I bit my lip when I said that "Roll Tide" Never again will I speak those words
Quoting 250. DeepSeaRising:

Goal is to have everyone care about the World. Not geopolitically speaking, but what we're doing to it. Results are already astounding. Syria is the prime example, which led to a vacuum for ISIS to expand. Historical drought led to Syrian Civil War. Deep read and social reality that goes much deeper than Assad just being a butcher, which he is. Why Pentagon is so worried about what is next due to AGW.


If only context came standard, or historical understanding for that matter.
Quoting 223. Deke127:

Please keep WU reporting about the weather instead of all these Weather Channel reality shows. Viewers come to TWC for weather news; that is, what the weather is doing and forecasts and not weather reality shows. So... please keep WU about the weather!

Yea right, just like the blog which is all about weather/tropical weather... uh, hmmm, I think I see a problem lol. I TOTALLY agree with this comment, but I'm sure no one is listening.
..coulda, woulda, shoulda ?



This will lead to the solution for GW. The Crispr technique will lead to bacteria that will eliminate fossil fuels, eat CO2, etc. But probably cause a long list of other problems.
http://www.wired.com/2015/07/crispr-dna-editing-2 /
Quoting 252. ProgressivePulse:



I bit my lip when I said that "Roll Tide" Never again will I speak those words



A deep gracious bowed, thank you, ...
Quoting 254. leofarnsworth:


Yea right, just like the blog which is all about weather/tropical weather... uh, hmmm, I think I see a problem lol. I TOTALLY agree with this comment, but I'm sure no one is listening.


Weather, oh yeah, but the deeper understanding of weather is climate and the science behind it. This is the beginning of truth behind what is happening climatically speaking. Maybe you saw Haiyan? Strongest typhoon in the recorded history of the world? Driven by the changing world enhanced by Man. Heartbreaking stories. Sea level rise is peaking currently in the Philippines. These are reasons we should care deeply, not deny for agenda reasoning or ignorance based on self or political affiliation. All that matters is the truth. I'm a conservative Christian, I seek the truth, and when it comes to AGW, the truth is not hard to discern.
Soggy southeast this weekend.


Quoting 213. BobHenson:

Hey, everyone....glad to see such interest in the WU Show. We're pretty stoked about it! For those of you on Verizon FiOS who can't access Weather Channel content: if you're motivated to switch carriers/plans, you can often find another provider that does carry TWC. Here's a website that will tell you more: Get the Weather Channel

Apple TV provides access to a wide array of TWC content, including local forecasts and taped segments. I'm checking to see if any of the WU Show will be accessible through Apple TV.

--Bob


Good to know as I won't be able to catch them "live" but I am looking forward to seeing them.
#243 Is James Hansen related to STS? :)
Quoting 253. Naga5000:



If only context came standard, or historical understanding for that matter.

Please post link as to why Syrian civil war was caused by drought. Seems ridiculous to me. Don't mind the constant Sunni vs Shia conflicts and Middle Eastern dictators. Give me a break
Quoting 250. DeepSeaRising:

Goal is to have everyone care about the World. Not geopolitically speaking, but what we're doing to it. Results are already astounding. Syria is the prime example, which led to a vacuum for ISIS to expand. Historical drought led to Syrian Civil War. Deep read and social reality that goes much deeper than Assad just being a butcher, which he is. Why Pentagon is so worried about what is next due to AGW.

probably the most ridiculous comment ive seen on this forum
psssst'
Sure, since please is always welcome.



Researchers Link Syrian Conflict to a Drought Made Worse by Climate Change
By HENRY FOUNTAINMARCH 2, 2015


Drawing one of the strongest links yet between global warming and human conflict, researchers said Monday that an extreme drought in Syria between 2006 and 2009 was most likely due to climate change, and that the drought was a factor in the violent uprising that began there in 2011.

The drought was the worst in the country in modern times, and in a study published Monday in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the scientists laid the blame for it on a century-long trend toward warmer and drier conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean, rather than on natural climate variability.

The researchers said this trend matched computer simulations of how the region responds to increases in greenhouse-gas emissions, and appeared to be due to two factors: a weakening of winds that bring moisture-laden air from the Mediterranean and hotter temperatures that cause more evaporation.

Colin P. Kelley, the lead author of the study, said he and his colleagues found that while Syria and the rest of the region known as the Fertile Crescent were normally subject to periodic dry periods, “a drought this severe was two to three times more likely” because of the increasing aridity in the region

Graphic: A New Offensive Against ISIS in Anbar

Dr. Kelley, who did the research while at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and is now at the University of California at Santa Barbara, said there was no apparent natural cause for the warming and drying trend, which developed over the last 100 years, when humans’ effect on climate has been greatest.

Martin P. Hoerling, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration whose earlier work showed a link between climate change and aridity in the Eastern Mediterranean, said the researchers’ study was “quite compelling.”

“The paper makes a strong case for the first link in their causal chain,” Dr. Hoerling said in an email, “namely the human interference with the climate so as to increase drought likelihood in Syria.”

Some social scientists, policy makers and others have previously suggested that the drought played a role in the Syrian unrest, and the researchers addressed this as well, saying the drought “had a catalytic effect.” They cited studies that showed that the extreme dryness, combined with other factors, including misguided agricultural and water-use policies of the Syrian government, caused crop failures that led to the migration of as many as 1.5 million people from rural to urban areas. This in turn added to social stresses that eventually resulted in the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad in March 2011.

What began as civil war has since escalated into a multifaceted conflict, with at least 200,000 deaths. The United Nations estimates that half of the country’s 22 million people have been affected, with more than six million having been internally displaced.

The researchers said that there were many factors that contributed to the chaos, including the influx of 1.5 million refugees from Iraq, and that it was impossible to quantify the effect of any one event like a drought.

Francesco Femia, founder and director of the Center for Climate and Security, a research group in Washington that has long argued that the Syrian drought had a climate-change component, said the new study “builds on previous work looking at the impact of drought on agricultural and pastoral livelihoods.”

“There’s no question that the drought had a role to play in the mass displacement of people,” he said.

The link between climate change and conflict has been debated for years. A working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change wrote in 2014 that there was “justifiable common concern” that climate change increased the risk of armed conflict in certain circumstances, but said it was unclear how strong the effect was.

The United States military has described climate change as a “threat multiplier” that may lead to greater instability in parts of the world.

Earlier studies trying to show a link between climate change and conflict have been rebutted by some scientists, and it is not clear how far this new study will go toward settling the issue.

Thomas Bernauer, a professor of political science at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich who has been critical of some earlier studies, said he was skeptical about this one as well. “The evidence for the claim that this drought contributed to the outbreak of civil war in Syria is very speculative and not backed up by robust scientific evidence,” he wrote in an email.

Mark A. Cane, an author of the study and a scientist at Lamont-Doherty, which is part of Columbia University, defended the work. “I think there’s a really good case here,” he said. “But I think we’ve tried to explain that the connection from an extraordinary climate event to conflict is complex and certainly involves other factors.”

A version of this article appears in print on March 3, 2015, on page A13 of the New York edition with the headline: Researchers Link Syrian

Here is a few more from other sources as well.


drought impacted syria war


About 208,000 results (0.29 seconds)
Showing results for drought impacted syria war
Quoting 266. Patrap:

psssst'
Sure, since please is always welcome.



Researchers Link Syrian Conflict to a Drought Made Worse by Climate Change
By HENRY FOUNTAINMARCH 2, 2015


Drawing one of the strongest links yet between global warming and human conflict, researchers said Monday that an extreme drought in Syria between 2006 and 2009 was most likely due to climate change, and that the drought was a factor in the violent uprising that began there in 2011.

The drought was the worst in the country in modern times, and in a study published Monday in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the scientists laid the blame for it on a century-long trend toward warmer and drier conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean, rather than on natural climate variability.

The researchers said this trend matched computer simulations of how the region responds to increases in greenhouse-gas emissions, and appeared to be due to two factors: a weakening of winds that bring moisture-laden air from the Mediterranean and hotter temperatures that cause more evaporation.

Colin P. Kelley, the lead author of the study, said he and his colleagues found that while Syria and the rest of the region known as the Fertile Crescent were normally subject to periodic dry periods, “a drought this severe was two to three times more likely” because of the increasing aridity in the region

Graphic: A New Offensive Against ISIS in Anbar

Dr. Kelley, who did the research while at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and is now at the University of California at Santa Barbara, said there was no apparent natural cause for the warming and drying trend, which developed over the last 100 years, when humans’ effect on climate has been greatest.

Martin P. Hoerling, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration whose earlier work showed a link between climate change and aridity in the Eastern Mediterranean, said the researchers’ study was “quite compelling.”

“The paper makes a strong case for the first link in their causal chain,” Dr. Hoerling said in an email, “namely the human interference with the climate so as to increase drought likelihood in Syria.”

Some social scientists, policy makers and others have previously suggested that the drought played a role in the Syrian unrest, and the researchers addressed this as well, saying the drought “had a catalytic effect.” They cited studies that showed that the extreme dryness, combined with other factors, including misguided agricultural and water-use policies of the Syrian government, caused crop failures that led to the migration of as many as 1.5 million people from rural to urban areas. This in turn added to social stresses that eventually resulted in the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad in March 2011.

What began as civil war has since escalated into a multifaceted conflict, with at least 200,000 deaths. The United Nations estimates that half of the country’s 22 million people have been affected, with more than six million having been internally displaced.

The researchers said that there were many factors that contributed to the chaos, including the influx of 1.5 million refugees from Iraq, and that it was impossible to quantify the effect of any one event like a drought.

Francesco Femia, founder and director of the Center for Climate and Security, a research group in Washington that has long argued that the Syrian drought had a climate-change component, said the new study “builds on previous work looking at the impact of drought on agricultural and pastoral livelihoods.”

“There’s no question that the drought had a role to play in the mass displacement of people,” he said.

The link between climate change and conflict has been debated for years. A working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change wrote in 2014 that there was “justifiable common concern” that climate change increased the risk of armed conflict in certain circumstances, but said it was unclear how strong the effect was.

The United States military has described climate change as a “threat multiplier” that may lead to greater instability in parts of the world.

Earlier studies trying to show a link between climate change and conflict have been rebutted by some scientists, and it is not clear how far this new study will go toward settling the issue.

Thomas Bernauer, a professor of political science at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich who has been critical of some earlier studies, said he was skeptical about this one as well. “The evidence for the claim that this drought contributed to the outbreak of civil war in Syria is very speculative and not backed up by robust scientific evidence,” he wrote in an email.

Mark A. Cane, an author of the study and a scientist at Lamont-Doherty, which is part of Columbia University, defended the work. “I think there’s a really good case here,” he said. “But I think we’ve tried to explain that the connection from an extraordinary climate event to conflict is complex and certainly involves other factors.”

A version of this article appears in print on March 3, 2015, on page A13 of the New York edition with the headline: Researchers Link Syrian



LOL, the text in your link noted in multiple locations the doubt the drought had in the conflict...try again
Quoting 261. Abacosurf:

Soggy southeast this weekend.



no TS though. Maybe next time.
Quoting 254. leofarnsworth:


Yea right, just like the blog which is all about weather/tropical weather... uh, hmmm, I think I see a problem lol. I TOTALLY agree with this comment, but I'm sure no one is listening.


I also agree but with the proviso that we have room for dissenting opinions (not dissenting facts). Listening to an opposition's view often leads to "aha" moments.
Quoting 268. sanflee76:


LOL, the text in your link noted in multiple locations the doubt the drought had in the conflict...try again


Well, you can wrestle with yer inner self, and maybe try to look up something that was reported like 4 months ago by all the media....before, well..u know.

I just linked what you asked for, it ain't hard.

I just link um, I'm not the author.

See how dat werks?

: )

Quoting 243. Patrap:

Jus came across this on Dr. Michael Manns FB page tonight.

Damning Study Claims Earth Could See 10-Foot Sea Level Rise in Just 50 Years

By Tom McKay July 22, 2015

The planet Earth might be headed for climate disaster a lot sooner than most people think, according to a potentially groundbreaking new study from renowned Columbia University and former NASA researcher James Hansen.

Hansen's research used paleoclimate data from eras far in the past and concluded sea levels across Earth have historically been much higher during epochs with only slightly warmer global temperatures than today. Instead of the extra 1.5 feet of seawater the International Panel on Climate Change believes will result from an average global temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius, Hansen thinks it will be more like 10 feet or more.



The science: University of St. Thomas School of Engineering thermal and fluid sciences expert John P. Abraham told Mic that Hansen's study, which combines paleoclimatic and contemporary data with computer models, found "dramatic ice loss from Antarctica can occur very quickly by complex processes. For instance, warming of ocean waters near the ice sheet can cause dramatic losses in the ice which then melts and flows into the oceans. So, in a certain sense, this is melting from below, rather than melting from above."

The paper argues the rate of ice loss from West Antarctica may double about a decade from now. According to Hansen, linear estimates of rising sea levels, such as the consensus viewpoint reached by the IPCC, are much too conservative, and Earth's denizens could be dealing with 10-foot sea level rise within the next 50 to 200 years. As such, the paper concludes the 2 degrees Celsius warming limit recommended by the IPCC is "highly dangerous."

"We conclude that continued high emissions will make multi-meter sea level rise practically unavoidable and likely to occur this century," Hansen writes in his paper. "It is not difficult to imagine that conflicts arising from forced migrations and economic collapse might make the planet ungovernable, threatening the fabric of civilization."

But come on, isn't this a little alarmist? Perhaps a little. Hansen's study is in some ways a worst-case scenario story, and assumes ice loss in Antarctica (and on a lesser scale, Greenland) will continue to accelerate on timetables that some scientists dispute. It also relies on projections scientists currently lack the technical ability to evaluate on a probabilistic basis.

In an email to Mic, Princeton University geosciences expert Michael Oppenheimer called the analysis "clever" but "inherently speculative," noting the paper contained "no analysis of the probability of these outcomes versus others." More critical was the USA National Center for Atmospheric Research's Kevin E. Trenberth, who wrote to Mic, "there are way too many assumptions and extrapolations for anything here to be taken seriously other than to promote further studies."

Still, prominent climate scientists agreed Hansen is highlighting issues of serious concern. Pennsylvania State University geoscientist Richard Alley told Mic via email Hansen's paper was "interesting and important," and captured "the lopsided nature of what we don't know about sea-level rise, with the most-likely IPCC estimate well on the optimistic low-rise side of the possible outcomes."

Alley's colleague, Michael E. Mann, concurred, writing to Mic while he was "skeptical about some of the specifics," the article was a "sobering wakeup call to those who still dispute the threat posed by our ongoing burning of fossil fuels."



Ten-foot sea level rise is a big deal: As the Globe and Mail recently reported, even a 6-foot sea level rise would leave huge stretches of South Florida practically uninhabitable, including submerging more than half of Miami-Dade County underwater. Across the country at large, this level of sea rise would put the homes of more than 12.3 million Americans under water, in addition to exposing countless millions more to storm surges and extreme weather-related damages.

More broadly, Climate Central estimates more than half the area of 40 large U.S. cities is within 10 feet of current high tide levels. An extra 10 feet of ocean could endanger and displace hundreds of millions across the world.

Humanity doesn't "have much time to stay below the critical temperature thresholds that these authors have found," Abraham writes. "One hundred fifty million people across the globe live within 3 feet of sea level rise. How many more live within 16 feet? The cost of social upheaval and destroyed infrastructure will be enormous."



Now thats scary.
Quoting 268. sanflee76:


LOL, the text in your link noted in multiple locations the doubt the drought had in the conflict...try again


That doesn't mean the research itself is invalid. These are scientists expressing their own doubts, with reason. You just flat out reject the science for no particular reason.

I don't think it's hard to believe that a drought could cause people to fight.
Quoting 265. sanflee76:


probably the most ridiculous comment ive seen on this forum


The DoD and related intelligence organizations are some of the largest users of climatological data and research. They use it for analysis on potential "hotspots" where climate change is will likely factor into destabilizing the region or wind up presenting some other threat (yes, Syria was one of those regions). They also use it to determine the actions they will need to take over the upcoming decades as the climate shifts, such as which shipyards may need overhauling, which bases might need to move, what equipment and provisions allocations will be needed, projected energy use, etc.

I know this for an absolute fact as I have worked on several of the data sets they use for such tasks. Everything from inundation recurrence to cattle stress indices. It's all used to maintain a global operations picture both now and well into the future.

Historically, extreme weather patters such as droughts have caused civil unrest, including complete collapse. Syria is no different. It was already a powder keg due to social and political issues. The extreme drought was just the match that lit it off.
Sunni Shia? Try Ishmael Isaac. Either way, the world has been at war with itself since the fall. Now we're at war with the planet. Faith, no faith, Left, or Right, the facts remain the facts. We need love, we need answers, and we need the truth. Science argues for the truth, and contrary to many belief's, faith and science aren't at odds, in all ways, they are in harmony with each other.
Quoting 273. Astrometeor:



That doesn't mean the research itself is invalid. These are scientists expressing their own doubts, with reason. You just flat out reject the science for no particular reason.

I don't think it's hard to believe that a drought could cause people to fight.
That makes common sense to me.
Floods and droughts I'd say make folks more ornery than tranquil conditions.
Still....this is a low confidence hypotheses akin to climate change causing more sharkbites in North Carolina. It's only worse when well meaning folks cut and paste and send it along.
You have to wonder when in the presented opinion "The researchers themselves said that there were many factors that contributed to the chaos, including the influx of 1.5 million refugees from Iraq, and that it was impossible to quantify the effect of any one event like a drought".

Quoting 276. CosmicEvents:

That makes common sense to me.
Floods and droughts I'd say make folks more ornery than tranquil conditions.
Still....this is a low confidence hypotheses akin to climate change causing more sharkbites in North Carolina. It's only worse when well meaning folks cut and paste and send it along.
You have to wonder when in the presented opinion "The researchers themselves said that there were many factors that contributed to the chaos, including the influx of 1.5 million refugees from Iraq, and that it was impossible to quantify the effect of any one event like a drought".




Agreed. And that's why I don't bring up the research on the Syrian drought to people in public. There are SO many factors involved, and unless you're the DOD or a well-researched person, I don't expect many people to understand what the researchers' paper means.

It's easier to stick to simpler things, like the Arctic ice shrinking. More heat = less ice. Simple and easy to convey.
As we cut Katrina coverage promos at TWC, we kept an eye on WX Underground projections. We worked long hours but with a purpose. No one complained. That was when Landmark owned TWC.
Quoting 273. Astrometeor:
That doesn't mean the research itself is invalid. These are scientists expressing their own doubts, with reason. You just flat out reject the science for no particular reason.

I don't think it's hard to believe that a drought could cause people to fight.

From 1970-1973 Afghanistan had its worst drought up to that time, which lead to the overthrow of the monarchy in 1973, and a series of increasingly alarming and unstable series governments until 1979, when the Soviets invaded.
Quoting 277. Astrometeor:



Agreed. And that's why I don't bring up the research on the Syrian drought to people in public. There are SO many factors involved, and unless you're the DOD or a well-researched person, I don't expect many people to understand what the researchers' paper means.

It's easier to stick to simpler things, like the Arctic ice shrinking. More heat = less ice. Simple and easy to convey.
Yes...the simpler things....global warming, seas rising, ice melting. All true but as exciting as watching grass grow. There were 2 choices....for marketing years ago....explain the effects showing computer simulations of these factors...or go off speculating about stuff even Dr. Masters has deamed 50/50....multiple violent extreme tornados, hurricanes, calamity...all sad but compellingly photogenic, unlike ice in the north where few live melting drop by drop, or oceans rising a tenth of a mm. Plus the money cost of weather events needs an ACE or 2 up it's sleeve to come close to even normal. I'm not a denier...I think it'll all happen, eventually, somewhere.
Quoting 279. BaltimoreBrian:


From 1970-1973 Afghanistan had its worst drought up to that time, which lead to the overthrow of the monarchy in 1973, and a series of increasingly alarming and unstable series governments until 1979, when the Soviets invaded.


Grothar said when he was there in -75000 BC the drought was worse.

Quoting 246. BaltimoreBrian:

Oklahoma City rainfall YTD, 41.65". Normal YTD 20.81", departure from normal 20.84" Unprecedented? ;)
Mumbai is dry. Sao Paolo is suffering a drought. We're actually pretty much dry as all get out here in Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, the Northwest Territories and Alaska. What's your point? A man from Baltimore gloating about Oklahoma? Now that's something unprecedented in the climate record.

***
I wrote this in 2008:


In the 1830s, a small
handful of Baltimore worthies got together and founded a few banks,
issuing currency and taking in deposits. Everything went well for a
couple of years, but then, as the Panic of 1837 set in, the banks
collapsed, with currency holders and depositors both being ruined
while the bankers remained rich and lived in fine new mansions
recently built on the hills surrounding old town. Efforts to get
these crooks to disgorge their ill-gotten gains were to no avail in
the corrupted court system, so the dispossessed and defrauded took
matters into their own hands. The vigilante committee marched en
masse up to the mansion district and proceeded to burn down the fine
new homes, tar and feather the occupants and run them out of a town
on a rail.


And that's how Texas got
founded. Some things never change.

Heat wave turns Xinjiang into 'BBQ'
Thursday, Jul 23, 2015
As a heat wave continues to scorch Northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, which has topped the list of the hottest places in China for more than a week, Xinjiang people said the difference between them and a steak thrown on a barbecue is a pinch of salt.
"You can literally feel your skin sizzling under the sun. My wife reminded me to bring salt and pepper with me and rotate myself properly so I can be roasted evenly. I know she was just joking, but it's been too hot for too long," said Wang Liyuan, an Urumqi resident. The temperature in the regional capital of Urumqi reached a record 41 C on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, the Xinjiang Meteorological Department issued red heat warnings to cities around the region for the seventh day. People in seven of the 16 major cities in the region experienced temperatures over 40 C on Wednesday.
Red represents the most severe weather in a four-tier colour-coded weather warning system, followed by orange, yellow and blue. Under the red alert, outdoor work should be suspended due to the risk of heatstroke.
According to the China Central Meteorological Station's website, the top six hottest places in China in the afternoon were all in Xinjiang. Turpan city in Turpan prefecture, also known as the "fire state", topped the chart with temperatures reaching 46 C [115F] on Wednesday ...

Quoting 264. sanflee76:


Please post link as to why Syrian civil war was caused by drought. Seems ridiculous to me. Don't mind the constant Sunni vs Shia conflicts and Middle Eastern dictators. Give me a break


A google scholar search points to many papers on the topic, here are two important ones: Peter H. Gleick, 2014: Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria. and Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought
Colin P. Kelleya,1, Shahrzad Mohtadib, Mark A. Canec, Richard Seagerc, and Yochanan Kushnir
.

It is important to understand that no one is arguing that drought alone caused anything, instead, much like with most of the complex sociopolitical events of the world, a myriad of things played a role, drought and climate change being a part of it in Syraia. In fact, if you are going to discuss the problems in Syria, water scarcity has always played a role in civil issues, a drought (that looks to be outside the bounds of simple natural variability) would intensify that. Or are you trying to argue droughts don't make water scarce?

This is what I mean by context and historical knowledge. Rejecting the idea that scarce resources play any role seems foolish given the circumstances, and again, no one is arguing that drought was the ONLY factor.
If you want to slow down the global warming then stop having children. Less people = less Co2.
retired nasa guy says the seas are going to rise 50 ft next fifty yrs. yea right. i havent seen it rise 2 inches in the last thirty yrs. thats not science thats guessing.
Quoting 285. tampabaymatt:


QPFs continue to trend upwards for central FL ☔️
Quoting 288. islander101010:

now another retired nasa guy says the seas are going to rise 50 ft next fifty yrs. yea right. i havent seen it rise 2 inches in the last thirty yrs.


"In 2014, global average sea level was 2.6 inches (67 mm) above the 1993 average, which is the highest yearly average in the satellite record (1993-present). Overall, sea level continues to rise at a rate of one-eighth of an inch (3.2 mm) per year." Sea Level Trends

Hansen's paper is based on the idea that the Antarctic will continue to double it's rate of ice loss every decade or so, which has been the case recently. It is most likely a worst case scenario, but not to be dismissed. And he never said 50 feet in 50 years, that is a lie.
Good Morning all..


00z run
00z UKMET

36 hours


96 hours


shows plenty of Moisture

The 00z Euro seems to be showing three potential systems off the SE coast.





okay later..work for some of us..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
718 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY EARLY WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THE
FRONT OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND THEN MOVE BY THE SOUTHEAST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&
Quoting 289. FLWeatherFreak91:

QPFs continue to trend upwards for central FL ☔️


Actually down a little from yesterday. Yesterday it was showing a 7 inch bullseye right off Tampa Bay.
297. beell
Quoting 287. NoobDave:

If you want to slow down the global warming then stop having children. Less people = less Co2.




Earth's Land Mammals by Weight
xkcd

298. beell
Hundreds Evacuated In Almaty Outskirts After Mudslide
By RFE/RL's Kazakh Service, July 23, 2015
ALMATY -- Hundreds of residents on the outskirts of the southeastern Kazakh city of Almaty have been evacuated after a mudslide hit the area.
The mudslide hit Almaty's Nauyryzbai district early on July 23 after several days of extremely hot weather prompted the abrupt melting of a big glacier located in the mountains near the city.
The waters overflowed a lake and into the Qarghaly River, causing floods that damaged dozens of houses.
No casualties were reported.
A dam blocking the river is now holding up to 30 thousand cubic meters of water and mud, raising fears that it could break.
Almaty city authorities declared an emergency situation and sent some 2,000 rescue workers, backed by three helicopters, to deal with the situation.



Aerial survey of the whole valley after the mud flood hit.


Short video of the nightly flow.
Good Morning. On the tropical front, the main action today is in the West-Pac (not the football conference) and model watching to see if a storm materializes in the medium term off of the US:

Also noting the continued healthy wave train off of the African ITCZ that will continue to slowly rise in latitude over the next four weeks:


It is apparent that the ITZ is all lit up but nothing of consequence to form. Hopefully it will give the islands much needed rain.
And finally shear levels today across the MDR and US coasts and the location of the elongated Atlantic Tutt/sub-tropical ridge that will also slowly rise north in the coming weeks:




And for Conus, a slight to marginal t-storm risk across the board and relative location of the US Jet:


Quoting 270. JustDucky251:



I also agree but with the proviso that we have room for dissenting opinions (not dissenting facts). Listening to an opposition's view often leads to "aha" moments.


As my log-in says, I have been "a reader since Wilma". I could have as others do call myself a lurker, I preferred "reader" as I was and continue to be a very interested reader and besides, my contributions would have been limited to looking out my window and going "yep, it's raining" so for years I was just that "a reader".

I must agree with this post that addresses "dissenting opinions". Why? Because I have probably learned more by researching those dissenting opinions than from anything else. See, I am not a scientist nor a weatherman nor a student at ????University. I cannot digest those opinions as well as most experienced and talented posters that are here on a regular basis. They already know the answers and reply to the dissenting voices, sometimes nicely, sometimes aggressively, sometimes in a manner that I personally would have just added the "dissenting" poster to my ignore list.

My point.....please don't chase away the "dissenting opinions". They are a valuable source of research information for those such as I as they provide a magnificent opportunity to learn.
And a new paper on the climate change front:

A new study says that climate-induced feedback loops could lead to a change in ocean stratification and the more rapid melting of ice sheets.

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/07/c limat e-researcher-blasts-global-warming-target-highly-d angerous

Climate scientist James Hansen has fired a new salvo in the climate wars. In a new paper, Hansen and colleagues warn that the current international plan to limit global warming isn't going to be nearly enough to avert disasters like runaway ice-sheet melting and consequent sea-level rise. Hansen told reporters at a press conference yesterday that he hoped the pape to be published online this week would influence global climate talks this December in Paris and encourage negotiators to reconsider their goal of keeping warming to less than 2C above preindustrial levels, a laudable but insufficient target, some scientists say. But how influential this paper will be is unclear, given its flaws.

The new study, which includes nearly 300 references and is 66 pages long, argues that the 2C target hard-won as it might be politically not good enough, and is in fact highly dangerous. At that temperature, the study says, enough ice-sheet melting causes a positive feedback loop that leads to more melting and rising seas. Instead, Hansen and his co-authors say, a far better target would be to return to an atmosphere with 350 parts per million CO2. That number currently stands at about 400 parts per million.

Quoting 284. Naga5000:



A google scholar search points to many papers on the topic, here are two important ones: Peter H. Gleick, 2014: Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria. and Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought
Colin P. Kelleya,1, Shahrzad Mohtadib, Mark A. Canec, Richard Seagerc, and Yochanan Kushnir
.

It is important to understand that no one is arguing that drought alone caused anything, instead, much like with most of the complex sociopolitical events of the world, a myriad of things played a role, drought and climate change being a part of it in Syraia. In fact, if you are going to discuss the problems in Syria, water scarcity has always played a role in civil issues, a drought (that looks to be outside the bounds of simple natural variability) would intensify that. Or are you trying to argue droughts don't make water scarce?

This is what I mean by context and historical knowledge. Rejecting the idea that scarce resources play any role seems foolish given the circumstances, and again, no one is arguing that drought was the ONLY factor.
Introducing nuance to [redacted] is like introducing nuance to a sand flea: It's a exercise in futility. People of [redacted] ilk can only see the world in black and white as any gray would greatly disturb their world view.
Quoting 288. islander101010:

retired nasa guy says the seas are going to rise 50 ft next fifty yrs. yea right. i havent seen it rise 2 inches in the last thirty yrs. thats not science thats guessing.


I guess if you're going to lie, lie big.

No one has said anything remotely close to 50 ft in 50 years. The latest work states 10 feet by the end of the century as a worst case scenario, up from about the 3-6 feet that was projected by the IPCC.

Average sea levels have increased about 2 inches over 20 years, more if you go back a look through tidal gauge records. You're not going to "see" anything since at the moment the rate of change is slow enough that "it's always been like that". If you'd bother reading the research it indicates a nonlinear and increasing rate of change as feedbacks accelerate the rates of land ice loss. What is currently a few mm per year eventually grows to a few inches per year towards the end of the century.
:-)
Funny article. Don't miss reading:

Heat wave forces Austrians to rethink technology priorities
by Fuad Abazovic on 23 July 2015
Air-conditioning more important than iPhones
Latest run

6z
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
339 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS IN CLOSING
OFF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW RESIDUAL DRY LOW-MID LEVELS AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY
SOUTHERN LOCALES...WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE INCREASE AT HIGHER
ALTITUDE. SO ALTHOUGH RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES DO INCREASE, IT IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL AND WHETHER THIS
WILL BE A PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL RAINS FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA (IN A
DROUGHT)...OR A NICE TRY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE ACTUALLY NOT SO BULLISH WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
WPC IS FOLLOWING SUIT AND THIS FORECASTER CONCURS. WPC 7-DAY QPF
(FROM THE LATEST UPDATE WED EVENING) DEPICTS LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH MIAMI-DADE TO 1-1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES. ONE ISSUE I THINK WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH IS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND
IF FORCING ISN`T ENOUGH, THAT CAN REALLY SQUELCH THINGS HERE.
THINKING THAT THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THIS COULD BE OVER WEST CENTRAL FL. LOTS WILL
DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS. /GREGORIA
Wanted: a drought busting tropical event (ie wet TD would be just dandy).

Quoting 312. GeoffreyWPB:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
339 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS IN CLOSING
OFF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOW RESIDUAL DRY LOW-MID LEVELS AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY
SOUTHERN LOCALES...WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE INCREASE AT HIGHER
ALTITUDE. SO ALTHOUGH RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES DO INCREASE, IT IS
STILL QUESTIONABLE JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL AND WHETHER THIS
WILL BE A PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL RAINS FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA (IN A
DROUGHT)...OR A NICE TRY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE ACTUALLY NOT SO BULLISH WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
WPC IS FOLLOWING SUIT AND THIS FORECASTER CONCURS. WPC 7-DAY QPF
(FROM THE LATEST UPDATE WED EVENING) DEPICTS LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH MIAMI-DADE TO 1-1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES. ONE ISSUE I THINK WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH IS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND
IF FORCING ISN`T ENOUGH, THAT CAN REALLY SQUELCH THINGS HERE.
THINKING THAT THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THIS COULD BE OVER WEST CENTRAL FL. LOTS WILL
DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS. /GREGORIA
Quoting 306. AreadersinceWilma:



As my log-in says, I have been "a reader since Wilma". I could have as others do call myself a lurker, I preferred "reader" as I was and continue to be a very interested reader and besides, my contributions would have been limited to looking out my window and going "yep, it's raining" so for years I was just that "a reader".

I must agree with this post that addresses "dissenting opinions". Why? Because I have probably learned more by researching those dissenting opinions than from anything else. See, I am not a scientist nor a weatherman nor a student at ????University. I cannot digest those opinions as well as most experienced and talented posters that are here on a regular basis. They already know the answers and reply to the dissenting voices, sometimes nicely, sometimes aggressively, sometimes in a manner that I personally would have just added the "dissenting" poster to my ignore list.

My point.....please don't chase away the "dissenting opinions". They are a valuable source of research information for those such as I as they provide a magnificent opportunity to learn.

Excellent post.
Quoting 306. AreadersinceWilma:



As my log-in says, I have been "a reader since Wilma". I could have as others do call myself a lurker, I preferred "reader" as I was and continue to be a very interested reader and besides, my contributions would have been limited to looking out my window and going "yep, it's raining" so for years I was just that "a reader".

I must agree with this post that addresses "dissenting opinions". Why? Because I have probably learned more by researching those dissenting opinions than from anything else. See, I am not a scientist nor a weatherman nor a student at ????University. I cannot digest those opinions as well as most experienced and talented posters that are here on a regular basis. They already know the answers and reply to the dissenting voices, sometimes nicely, sometimes aggressively, sometimes in a manner that I personally would have just added the "dissenting" poster to my ignore list.

My point.....please don't chase away the "dissenting opinions". They are a valuable source of research information for those such as I as they provide a magnificent opportunity to learn.


Dissenting opinion is good as it provides a learning opportunity. Purposeful misinformation is another story.
318. SuzK
Quoting 284. Naga5000:



A google scholar search points to many papers on the topic, here are two important ones: Peter H. Gleick, 2014: Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria. and Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought
Colin P. Kelleya,1, Shahrzad Mohtadib, Mark A. Canec, Richard Seagerc, and Yochanan Kushnir
.

It is important to understand that no one is arguing that drought alone caused anything, instead, much like with most of the complex sociopolitical events of the world, a myriad of things played a role, drought and climate change being a part of it in Syraia. In fact, if you are going to discuss the problems in Syria, water scarcity has always played a role in civil issues, a drought (that looks to be outside the bounds of simple natural variability) would intensify that. Or are you trying to argue droughts don't make water scarce?

This is what I mean by context and historical knowledge. Rejecting the idea that scarce resources play any role seems foolish given the circumstances, and again, no one is arguing that drought was the ONLY factor.


Fear of drought may be more like it. Various middle eastern water sources have been in and out of the hands of ISIS all year. They've battled for the Mosul Dam in Iraq and include control of the Nile and the Tigris and Euphrates rivers as objects of warfare and the triumph of the caliphate.

Link

so visiting with our friends at FSU this morning.......the CMC shows once again the wave exiting the carolinas.....a bit lower this run......but still does nothing with it


the ecmwf says there it is...but two frames later says there it went......

the gfs still has it meandering along the south until hour 90 and then it breaks free....but it doesn't do anything with it....

this is the ebst the navgem can do with it....it's just not that interested.....


and what do the boys and girls at the NHC have to say.....

hoping the GFS starts showing some activity in the MDR by the end of it's run. Nothing by August 8th
I CAN NOT WAIT!!!!! Congrats! to all

Grinder KWICOLUM2
Quoting 317. Naga5000:



Dissenting opinion is good as it provides a learning opportunity. Purposeful misinformation is another story.


How would I know the difference between a "dissenting opinion" and "purposeful misinformation" unless I had the opportunity to read it, research it and understand it ????
Quoting 306. AreadersinceWilma:

I must agree with this post that addresses "dissenting opinions". Why? Because I have probably learned more by researching those dissenting opinions than from anything else. See, I am not a scientist nor a weatherman nor a student at ????University. I cannot digest those opinions as well as most experienced and talented posters that are here on a regular basis. They already know the answers and reply to the dissenting voices, sometimes nicely, sometimes aggressively, sometimes in a manner that I personally would have just added the "dissenting" poster to my ignore list.

My point.....please don't chase away the "dissenting opinions". They are a valuable source of research information for those such as I as they provide a magnificent opportunity to learn.
As others have noted, dissenting opinions are fine. In fact, science can't exist without true skepticism. But I think perhaps the term "dissenting opinion" needs definition. Some examples may help differentiate between a true dissenting opinion and just inane nonsense:

Dissenting opinion: "I believe climate sensitivity may be somewhat less than many climatologists think."
Denialism: "Global warming is a socialist scam to take our money."

Dissenting opinion: "Because of the disparity between some global temperature datasets, I'm not entirely convinced that the planet has warmed quite as much as some say."
Denialism: "They can't even tell us how warm it will be next Wednesday, but they want us to believe they know how warm we'll be in 100 years? LOL."

Dissenting opinion: "Isn't it at least slightly possible that atmospheric CO2 won't hang around trapping heat as long as experiments have suggested they might?"
Denialism: "It snowed yesterday in Northern Greenland. That can't happen If the planet is warming. We're being lied to."

Dissenting opinion: "I realize that multiple peer-reviewed studies have shown that 97% of practicing climate scientists support the theory that the planet is warming due to growing CO2 emissions. However, I take issue with one aspect of the study done at Cornell University, and believe a better methodology would have returned a figure of only 96%."
Denialism: "Al Gore is fat."
Quoting 328. AreadersinceWilma:



How would I know the difference between a "dissenting opinion" and "purposeful misinformation" unless I had the opportunity to read it, research it and understand it ????
Quoting 329. Neapolitan:

As others have noted, dissenting opinions are fine. In fact, science can't exist without true skepticism. But I think perhaps the term "dissenting opinion" needs definition. Some examples may help differentiate between a true dissenting opinion and just inane nonsense:

Dissenting opinion: "I believe climate sensitivity may be somewhat less than many climatologists think."
Denialism: "Global warming is a socialist scam to take our money."

Dissenting opinion: "Because of the disparity between some global temperature datasets, I'm not entirely convinced that the planet has warmed quite as much as some say."
Denialism: "They can't even tell us how warm it will be next Wednesday, but they want us to believe they know how warm we'll be in 100 years? LOL."

Dissenting opinion: "Isn't it at least slightly possible that atmospheric CO2 won't hang around trapping heat as long as experiments have suggested they might?"
Denialism: "It snowed yesterday in Northern Greenland. That can't happen If the planet is warming. We're being lied to."

Dissenting opinion: "I realize that multiple peer-reviewed studies have shown that 97% of practicing climate scientists support the theory that the planet is warming due to growing CO2 emissions. However, I take issue with one aspect of the study done at Cornell University, and believe a better methodology would have returned a figure of only 96%."
Denialism: "Al Gore is fat."


There is a clear difference.
Quoting 332. Naga5000:



There is a clear difference.


The last one is trollish. How can you know that about the first three. That is not clear
There are some im sure that would like to ride the AGW train all the way to the bank. I know the planet is warming. Im just not sure how honestly its being reported. Drastic measures? no. MEASURES? yes
WU's getting a show? Awesome! Also, are they going to continue to air Tornado Alley because they were doing live coverage during the time the latest 2 episodes were supposed to air and that show's pretty interesting.



Quoting 329. Neapolitan:

As others have noted, dissenting opinions are fine. In fact, science can't exist without true skepticism. But I think perhaps the term "dissenting opinion" needs definition. Some examples may help differentiate between a true dissenting opinion and just inane nonsense:

Dissenting opinion: "I believe climate sensitivity may be somewhat less than many climatologists think."
Denialism: "Global warming is a socialist scam to take our money."

Dissenting opinion: "Because of the disparity between some global temperature datasets, I'm not entirely convinced that the planet has warmed quite as much as some say."
Denialism: "They can't even tell us how warm it will be next Wednesday, but they want us to believe they know how warm we'll be in 100 years? LOL."

Dissenting opinion: "Isn't it at least slightly possible that atmospheric CO2 won't hang around trapping heat as long as experiments have suggested they might?"
Denialism: "It snowed yesterday in Northern Greenland. That can't happen If the planet is warming. We're being lied to."

Dissenting opinion: "I realize that multiple peer-reviewed studies have shown that 97% of practicing climate scientists support the theory that the planet is warming due to growing CO2 emissions. However, I take issue with one aspect of the study done at Cornell University, and believe a better methodology would have returned a figure of only 96%."


Denialism: "Al Gore is fat."

Would that be an objective or subjective opinion?
Quoting 325. wunderweatherman123:

hoping the GFS starts showing some activity in the MDR by the end of it's run. Nothing by August 8th



look else were if you want activity your not going too see it in the MDR this year
And for those looking forward to the new WC show, as I am, I didnt see Dr Masters say that the whole show will be on global warming. There is always room for some plain old weather without the political spins. Go ahead and vote me off the blog bloggers. If you do, then i dont need to be here because thats what i have to say about it and i AM entitled to my opinion.
Quoting 297. beell:




Earth's Land Mammals by Weight
xkcd


Great food for thought from {((xkcd))}.

Of course smallening the darkest areas (humans) would also smallen the grays.
And let's not forget, cow mansions are lit by stars and air conditioned by wind.
Cattle do require fossil fuel to get to Slaughterville.
And of course you wouldn't want to be in a hot tub with a cow or steer in case it farted. Cattle make large farts.
Wonder how big the chart would be with all the cattle mothers on it?

This chart makes a good case for a vegetarian diet.
Quoting 333. K8eCane:



The last one is trollish. How can you know that about the first three. That is not clear
It doesn't matter. The statement is clearly not expressing a "dissenting opinion" where climate science is concerned; it's merely a childish lashing out at logic, a desperate appeal to ideological ignorance, a poor attempt at diverting discussion from the issue, and a sadly-overused ad hominem that has absolutely nothing to do with skepticism. And anyone who can't see that and instead ingests it as part of their "all opinions are equal" plan is going to dig themselves into quite a hole where knowledge is concerned.
Hey, Naga.
Re: 317 as quoted at 328.

The OP has a good point. I operate a similar way. Certain comments make me want to read more. When I read I understand better. Media skews its headlines - which is nothing new. Newspaper editors have done this since news in print began. Many, maybe most, people don't read much beyond headlines and summaries/abstracts, so delving deeper is the only way to get a true picture of whatever the subject. Oftimes "dissenting opinion" is a simple way to point out the need to read beyond the headline [add to end of sentence) specially a sensationalistic headline.

Maybe you are starting to reveal your definition of "denier," or at least beginning to form one.
Quoting 340. Neapolitan:

It doesn't matter. The statement is clearly not expressing a "dissenting opinion" where climate science is concerned; it's merely a childish lashing out at logic, a desperate appeal to ideological ignorance, a poor attempt at diverting discussion from the issue, and a sadly-overused ad hominem that has absolutely nothing to do with skepticism. And anyone who can't see that and instead ingests it as part of their "all opinions are equal" plan is going to dig themselves into quite a hole where knowledge is concerned.


And your banter is a perfect example of what my message is.
Quoting 336. AreadersinceWilma:





Would that be an objective or subjective opinion?
One thing for sure... One member's opinion, or even the collective opinion of a group of like-minded weather underground members, doesn't run the zoo, the U.S., or this forum.

Hope everyone has a great day, wherever you are... whatever the weather.
:)

(spelling edit)
12z NAM running..

Interesting comment K8, why would you think your posts would be voted out?

I really hope that posts aren't being flagged or voted out because of differing opinions..

I never flag anyone's posts here despite my "debatable" exchanges with blog members..

The low is forming near the NC/SC border and is expected to come off the coast very early Friday morning.
Quoting 328. AreadersinceWilma:



How would I know the difference between a "dissenting opinion" and "purposeful misinformation" unless I had the opportunity to read it, research it and understand it ????




Read A Hyperlinked History of Climate Change Science, the basics are all here.


Lots of storms moving around the Texas/LA ridge.
30 hours
Quoting 341. Barefootontherocks:

Hey, Naga.
Re: 317 as quoted at 328.

The OP has a good point. I operate a similar way. Certain comments make me want to read more. When I read I understand better. Media skews its headlines - which is nothing new. Newspaper editors have done this since news in print began. Many, maybe most, people don't read much beyond headlines and summaries/abstracts, so delving deeper is the only way to get a true picture of whatever the subject. Oftimes "dissenting opinion" is a simple way to point out the need to read beyond the headline [add to end of sentence) specially a sensationalistic headline.

Maybe you are starting to reveal your definition of "denier," or at least beginning to form one.


I don't disagree with your first paragraph. As for the last part, I did give a very clear defintion the first time you breached the topic. Have a good one.
Link

beyond understanding
Quoting 328. AreadersinceWilma:



How would I know the difference between a "dissenting opinion" and "purposeful misinformation" unless I had the opportunity to read it, research it and understand it ????

AGW is a scientific issue. In order to "understand it" in the deepest sense, one would need a strong background in atmospheric science, which most of us don't have. For those of us who are not atmospheric scientists, the wisest approach is to listen to those who are, and these people are getting hoarse from trying to warn us about what is happening and what is going to happen. Questioning the overwhelming consensus of
atmospheric scientists about AGW makes as much sense as questioning the consensus of medical professionals concerning vaccinations. Contrary to what some who post on here suggest, climate scientists are not a pack of money grubbing, wild-eyed leftists trying to score
gub'mint grants.
great video...thanks for the smile dr masters
Quoting 302. rmbjoe1954:

It is apparent that the ITZ is all lit up but nothing of consequence to form. Hopefully it will give the islands much needed rain.


Trinidad and Tobago, and soutern Windwards only...
We got Felicia
EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SEVEN EP072015 07/23/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 114.9 West. Felicia is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward
the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the
next 24 hours. Weakening is forecast to commence Friday night, and
Felicia is likely to become a remnant low on Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Conventional satellite imagery and a couple of recent microwave
overpasses show that spiral banding has improved during the past
several hours, particularly over the eastern and southern portions
of the cyclone. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB
are T2.5/35 kt, supporting an upgrade of the system to a tropical
storm. Although Felicia has about 24 hours or so before
moving over cooler water and into a more stable environment,
persistent northerly shear should impede any significant
strengthening. The statistical-dynamical intensity guidance all
show Felicia weakening to a remnant low in 48 hours, and this is
reflected in the official forecast. Global models subsequently
indicate the cyclone dissipating or opening up into a trough in 4
days or less.

The initial motion is estimated to be 320/11. Felicia is forecast
to continue moving northwestward within the mid-level flow on the
southwestern side of the subtropical ridge during the next 24-36
hours. Afterward, the dynamical models show Felicia gradually
turning westward as the system degenerates into a remnant low and is
steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The NHC forecast is
basically an update of the first advisory, and closely follows the
GFEX and TVCN multi-model consensus forecasts.
57 hours
I expected that this system was a tropical storm this morning when I woke up to go to college.. Nice to see that it is one. It seems to be holding up fairly well despite the shear messing with the system from the north west.. Good for now, but how long will it last? Water temperatures are going to get too cold to allow the system to hold together fairly soon...



(Yes, I know this SST chart is 2 days old. Should still be "accurate enough" to get a general idea of temperatures..)

Quoting 363. ncstorm:

57 hours
does this mean the gulf low is a nogo
Quoting 338. K8eCane:

And for those looking forward to the new WC show, as I am, I didnt see Dr Masters say that the whole show will be on global warming. There is always room for some plain old weather without the political spins. Go ahead and vote me off the blog bloggers. If you do, then i dont need to be here because thats what i have to say about it and i AM entitled to my opinion.


I expect the new WU show's content will be 99% about weather and 1% about climate change.

Dr. M.
I will definitely watch then!!



Quoting 354. ACSeattle:


AGW is a scientific issue. In order to "understand it" in the deepest sense, one would need a strong background in atmospheric science, which most of us don't have. For those of us who are not atmospheric scientists, the wisest approach is to listen to those who are, and these people are getting hoarse from trying to warn us about what is happening and what is going to happen. Questioning the overwhelming consensus of
atmospheric scientists about AGW makes as much sense as questioning the consensus of medical professionals concerning vaccinations. Contrary to what some who post on here suggest, climate scientists are not a pack of money grubbing, wild-eyed leftists trying to score
gub'mint grants.


I agree wholeheartedly that AGW is a scientific issue but I am not a scientist and of necessity I need to maximize my knowledge in layman's terms. Perhaps you should read some of my previous posts and you would know that I, as a husband, father, grandfather and recently a great grandfather am fanatical about climate change. Add to this that I have family that lives in areas that at one point will be underwater, the Florida Keys, Miami Beach, Corpus Christi, TX and we own a house in Biscayne Gardens, FL.

I want to be able to pass on as much information in easy to understand and absorb as much as I can possibly research. This is not for me, I am 72 and given the best available health information in all likelihood I won't be around for the big show. For instance, I have accomplished getting one son in law out of a 12 mpg vehicle into a Hybrid and working on many other possibilities. I want plain and easy language to pass around.

To be even more candid in addressing your comment about the scientific scope....I posted this before...what are you and others that want to deal in "scientific language" doing to change the ways of the average man on the street? Hyperbole about AGW works well to impress some of the other posters on this blog but how about this...tell us about one, just one fine example of what you personally have done to ameliorate, postpone, delay, prevent...whatever word you prefer that would best apply in this situation re" AGW.

Bottom line.....people need to get off their scientific high horse because the average man on the street that is effectively contributing to AGW does not speak scientific.
Quoting 337. Tazmanian:




look else were if you want activity your not going too see it in the MDR this year
You can't say never when you are talking about the weather.
Last frame..moving north..

Quoting 366. JeffMasters:
I expect the new WU show's content will be 99% about weather and 1% about climate change.
Dr. M.

Well, those two subjects are merging anyway, I guess. "Weather on steroids" will provide enough "good" stuff for the daily show, I'm sure.
Wow! With the ground already saturated in Central Florida from recent rains, this could require some preemptive planning by local officials.
InTampa,

that particular NAM model only goes out 84 hours..so it isnt showing anything in the Gulf during that timeframe
Quoting 368. AreadersinceWilma:



....people need to get off their scientific high horse because the average man on the street that is effectively contributing to AGW does not speak scientific.

Great. Well, let's threaten them with description of future reality. As if the average man on the street could fathom that.
Everything's been tried. 'An Inconvenient Truth' was a great job, but in the end the title is kind of a continuously self fulfilling prophecy.
Quoting 366. JeffMasters:



I expect the new WU show's content will be 99% about weather and 1% about climate change.

Dr. M.
That's about what I both hoped for and expected. After all, the 'W' in TWC stands for weather, not climate, and, fascinating as they subject is, they're not going to lure casual TV viewers with lengthy, deep discussions about climate science.

I look forward to the program...
Even 2013 had something in the MDR
.
will you be selling the Thunder Cloud shirt he was wearing in the ad?
Climate Change Denials That Sound More Like ‘Sharknado 3’ Reviews

Aaron Nemo


If anything makes less sense than the nonsensical collective plots of the 'Sharknado' trilogy, it's the denial of scientific evidence pointing to climate change.

Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate change is real and man made (a much higher percentage than 'Sharknado 3' is likely to earn on Rotten Tomatoes). To put the absurdity of these deniers' views into perspective, here are some dissenting elected officials' comments on climate change framed as 'Sharknado 3' movie reviews.



Quoting 368. AreadersinceWilma:



I agree wholeheartedly that AGW is a scientific issue but I am not a scientist and of necessity I need to maximize my knowledge in layman's terms. Perhaps you should read some of my previous posts and you would know that I, as a husband, father, grandfather and recently a great grandfather am fanatical about climate change. Add to this that I have family that lives in areas that at one point will be underwater, the Florida Keys, Miami Beach, Corpus Christi, TX and we own a house in Biscayne Gardens, FL.

I want to be able to pass on as much information in easy to understand and absorb as much as I can possibly research. This is not for me, I am 72 and given the best available health information in all likelihood I won't be around for the big show. For instance, I have accomplished getting one son in law out of a 12 mpg vehicle into a Hybrid and working on many other possibilities. I want plain and easy language to pass around.

To be even more candid in addressing your comment about the scientific scope....I posted this before...what are you and others that want to deal in "scientific language" doing to change the ways of the average man on the street? Hyperbole about AGW works well to impress some of the other posters on this blog but how about this...tell us about one, just one fine example of what you personally have done to ameliorate, postpone, delay, prevent...whatever word you prefer that would best apply in this situation re" AGW.

Bottom line.....people need to get off their scientific high horse because the average man on the street that is effectively contributing to AGW does not speak scientific.


Good morning (or afternoon or evening depending upon your locale) all! I do believe that at least one reason why some people question the accuracy of AGW is a lack of understanding of the vocabulary used. As a teacher, I tried to apply the maxim "keep it simple..." (leaving the last part out in case people get offended!) to any type of teaching situation. Sometimes I think a better way to explain AGW is to explain a situation to which people can better relate. I think of what happens when I use the oven to prepare something. When I turn the oven on, eventually the kitchen will become warmer as well, a result of the heat that is radiating from the oven. The longer I keep the oven on, the larger the effect, as the heat will spread throughout the house. Luckily, once I turn the oven off, the heat will dissipate. Then I take the scenario and apply it on a larger scale. If we consider every single factory and every form of fossil fuel-dependent transportation source as it's own individual oven, and then realize that each source is always on in one part of the world or another, we have to ask ourselves where all of the heat produced by these "ovens" will go. Follow that up with our knowledge that the one function of the Earth's atmosphere is to trap heat in, then, to me, it seems logical that the overall temperature has to increase, and that increase is at least partially human created (a large partial!). Of course, as someone whose field of study in graduate school was research-based, albeit in the field of history, I do find it hard to believe that 97% of any scientific community is that easily corruptible and functions on that high of a level of amorality as well! But that's just me!
Quoting 368. AreadersinceWilma:

Bottom line.....people need to get off their scientific high horse because the average man on the street that is effectively contributing to AGW does not speak scientific.
I'm not sure what exactly constitutes a "scientific high horse", so can't comment on that. But I'll say this: I think it's illogical to cease teaching science to a group of people simply because it's been determined that they don't know enough. And it's silly to claim that people you don't think are doing enough to combat climate change therefore have no right to talk about it. A doctor who smokes, overeats, and drinks too much is still a doctor...
Quoting 374. cRRKampen:


Great. Well, let's threaten them with description of future reality. As if the average man on the street could fathom that.
Everything's been tried. 'An Inconvenient Truth' was a great job, but in the end the title is kind of a continuously self fulfilling prophecy.
Good morning Kamp. Your post is interesting. I read that even if we stopped all co2 emissions today it would take decades for noticeable changes in the atmosphere. That is certainly arguable, because we cannot actually pin down just how much the oceans and weather can absorb and scrub out. Regardless of how all this works out, pulling fossil fuels off the grid as much as possible will be beneficial in many ways, even if the steps are small, but the fact is, if we set an example as some countries have done already, more will follow. There is a lot to gain from moving to alternatives. One thing that did occur to me was that if we make strides to do this, we here on Earth may have a surprise, and things could improve faster than expected. I have said here many times, during my travels as a merchant marine, I saw pollution and toxic waste so terrible, i wondered if it was even humanly possible to clean it. This is an abbreviated comment, i wanted to add more but i am swamped.
Quoting 378. bobbyscruggs1:

will you be selling the Thunder Cloud shirt he was wearing in the ad?


From WU Facebook

For those of you interested in the t-shirts, we'll be launching a new WU store in coming weeks. Stay tuned for details!


So Brutus will be available
387. JRRP
Congratulations! I've been a user of the Weather Underground (starting when it was an .edu text page!) and I'm glad to see it advancing. I don't get to see the show with my off-air rabbit ears but I'm sure it will be worthwhile.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 317. Naga5000:
Dissenting opinion is good as it provides a learning opportunity. Purposeful misinformation is another story.

Quoting 328. AreadersinceWilma:
How would I know the difference between a "dissenting opinion" and "purposeful misinformation" unless I had the opportunity to read it, research it and understand it ????
Great question.

"Read, research and understand" are requirements if you are going to involve yourself intellectually in climate discussions. If I may, I'd like to offer a good place for any interested reader to begin: The Discovery of Global Warming

When reading the comments of AGW "skeptics," though, you should know that the "Gish Gallop" is a favorite tactic of theirs. They will overload the discussion with spurious assertions requiring detailed, nuanced rebuttals, but move on to some other cherry-picked fact or half-truth while their opponent is still assembling a reply to the first one. It's better if you have seen all their arguments before, since they constantly recycle even the old ones that have been long debunked. Skeptical Science keeps a running list of this stuff.

People have various reasons for reaching an "Aha!" moment about AGW. Mine came when I realized the entire contrarian argument rests on the belief that virtually the entire world of science is working to perpetrate a hoax. Since the data and research are all against them, their last resort is to believe the data is cooked and the research is "pencil whipped," as we say Down South. That implies a conspiracy at least as large as the "Moon landing was fake" one.

It's ridiculous on the face of it, but you will see "skeptics" howling that the data is fraudulently adjusted every time it goes against them, as we see now with the global surface temperature climbing out of the so-called "pause." When the global temperature record looked like it was going flat, they loved it. Now, according to them, it's being faked. That kind of thing is what makes them "deniers."
Quoting 383. Neapolitan:

I'm not sure what exactly constitutes a "scientific high horse", so can't comment on that. But I'll say this: I think it's illogical to cease teaching science to a group of people simply because it's been determined that they don't know enough. And it's silly to claim that people you don't think are doing enough to combat climate change therefore have no right to talk about it. A doctor who smokes, overeats, and drinks too much is still a doctor...

" I think it's illogical to cease teaching science to a group of people simply because it's been determined that they don't know enough."

Of course it's illogical. The key in your statement is that "they don't know enough". The answer and possible solution is "how do you change that?"

"And it's silly to claim that people you don't think are doing enough to combat climate change therefore have no right to talk about it"

I am amazed as to how you reached the conclusion of not having the right to talk about it.
New record all-time hottest temperatures are being reported at a few obscure European locations including Schaerding, Austria at 38.2 C / 100.8 F, Ronchi dei Legionari, Italy at 39.2 / 102.6, and Gradisca d'Isonzo, Italy at at least 40.0 C / 104.0 F.
Quoting 384. hydrus:

Good morning Kamp. Your post is interesting. I read that even if we stopped all co2 emissions today it would take decades for noticeable changes in the atmosphere. That is certainly arguable, because we cannot actually pin down just how much the oceans and weather can absorb and scrub out. Regardless of how all this works out, pulling fossil fuels off the grid as much as possible will be beneficial in many ways, even if the steps are small, but the fact is, if we set an example as some countries have done already, more will follow. There is a lot to gain from moving to alternatives. One thing that did occur to me was that if we make strides to do this, we here on Earth may have a surprise, and things could improve faster than expected. I have said here many times, during my travels as a merchant marine, I saw pollution and toxic waste so terrible, i wondered if it was even humanly possible to clean it. This is an abbreviated comment, i wanted to add more but i am swamped.

Thank you. Just... Thank you.
Solar.
I was reading over the "The Discovery of Global Warming" article and I just had a question. I had noticed in the charts also that the climate cooled some from the 40's until the 70's. Is it possible that nuclear testing during this time would be at least a partial explanation? I've heard the term "nuclear winter" bandied about previously and I was just curious of others' thoughts.
Quoting 372. fmbill:

Wow! With the ground already saturated in Central Florida from recent rains, this could require some preemptive planning by local officials.



Especially here on the west coast, I've had rain 9 out of the last 11 days, I had 4.01 last Friday from a similar pattern that is predicted here, and 6.98 over the last 10 days. But this is the rainy season, and for much of this rainy season, it was drier than average for a lot of the state, so the rainier pattern over the last week and now into this weekend is more beneficial than harmful.

Yes it may cause some flooding, but Florida is the land of water, whether it be salt water or fresh water from heavy rains. It's quite common to see events with several inches of rain near the gulf coast here, these type of training rain band events off the gulf happen at least a couple times every year I can remember here.
The show sounds interesting to me. I plan on checking it out.
Anyone remember when the Weather Channel used to report on the weather? Now they have Fat Guys in the Woods.
Quoting 395. Jedkins01:



Especially here on the west coast, I've had rain 9 out of the last 11 days, I had 4.01 last Friday from a similar pattern that is predicted here, and 6.98 over the last 10 days. But this is the rainy season, and for much of this rainy season, it was drier than average for a lot of the state, so the rainier pattern over the last week and now into this weekend is more beneficial than harmful.

Yes it may cause some flooding, but Florida is the land of water, whether it be salt water or fresh water from heavy rains. It's quite common to see events with several inches of rain near the gulf coast here, these type of training rain band events off the gulf happen at least a couple times every year I can remember here.
Friends reporting streets in south Tampa starting to flood like they do. Doesn't take much there
I think it would be a great segment to show the fans like me, who have been talking to you(William) about personal weather stations how exactly to set up and erect a quality weather station and link up to your network. Since I'm broke disabled and can't afford one even a little and I spend my whole day tracking weather for folks to pass my time now, I think it would be super great if you came here to do it. Cape may New Jersey . I would be forever grateful and it would be a great show. Lol I really want one but alas I am unfounded. Thanks for all you do and I had no idea that you had merged with T.W.C.
STANDING BYE!
Capt. Andy
YEA! Don't lose the humor.
I saw a short snippit of the show for the first time this week ... the topic of "No more calling it an 'Indian' Summer!" was on the Political Correctness hotseat. I would have hoped the origin of the phrase has been researched with a little more depth. Within my family - Mohawk Nation, Bear Clan - the term was used by the very early European settlers to describe a time when the weather allowed continued raiding of settlements into the late fall, before everyone's hunkering down for the winter.