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What the Weekend Rains Did to Southern California—and What a Real Hurricane Could Do

By: Bob Henson 3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2015

The maxim “be careful what you wish for” comes to mind when pondering last weekend’s amazing rain across Southern California. After three years of fierce drought, some of the heaviest midsummer rains on record struck the region, facilitated by the remnants of former Hurricane Dolores. The spirit-boosting effects of the rain were accompanied by some rare disruptions, including a bridge collapse along Interstate 10 in far southeast California and the first rained-out pro baseball game at Anaheim’s Angel Stadium since 1995. As unusual as the rain was, there could be even more to come in the next several months, as an already-strong El Niño event continues to gather steam. Records for Southern California from the past century show that the risk of impact from Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes is greater during El Niño years. History also tells us that we can’t rule out the possibility of a full-blown hurricane coming ashore: this apparently happened in 1858, long before the region was densely populated.


Figure 1. Emergency crews respond after a pickup truck crashed into the collapse of an elevated section of Interstate 10 on Sunday, July 19, 2015, in Desert Center, Calif. The bridge, which carries the eastbound interstate about 15 feet above a normally dry wash, snapped and ended up in the flooding water below, the California Highway Patrol said, blocking all traffic headed toward Arizona. Image credit: Chief Geoff Pemberton/CAL FIRE/Riverside County Fire, via AP.

A century’s worth of July rain in one weekend
As the circulation around ex-hurricane Dolores stalled southwest of San Diego over the weekend (see Figure 3), the flow around it contributed to a channel of rich moisture flowing northward across much of Arizona and Southern California. Dewpoints rose to sultry Southern levels as high as the upper 60s in Los Angeles and the low 70s in San Diego. Very light rain had been in the forecast along the southern CA coast, but the amount of instability proved greater than expected, and intense thunderstorms developed on Saturday afternoon and evening. Much of western San Diego County picked up an inch or more of rain on Saturday, with another 0.50” – 1.00” widespread on Sunday and some lighter amounts on Monday. San Diego’s Lindbergh Field measured a whopping 1.69” on Saturday and Sunday—more rain than in any other July in San Diego records that go back to 1850 (the runner-up was 1.29” in July 1865). Midsummer is typically bone-dry in San Diego, with June through August racking up a combined average of just 0.14”. Amazingly, the past weekend produced more rain in San Diego than the previous 100 Julys combined (1915 – 2014). This was also more rain than the year’s wet-season months of January, February, and March managed to cough up. Downtown Los Angeles notched 0.38” over the weekend, its greatest monthly total for any July in records going back to 1877 (the previous record was 0.24” in July 1886). In that entire 139-year period, the station recorded a total of 1.17” of July rain, with close to a third of it falling this year.


Figure 2. More than 20,000 intracloud and cloud-to-ground lightning flashes occurred in southern California from Friday, July 17, through Sunday, July 19. Image credit: NWS/San Diego.


Figure 3. This satellite image tweeted by the NWS San Diego office on Sunday morning, July 19, shows the remnants of Dolores (lower left) and a displaced cluster of thunderstorms north of Los Angeles (near top of image). Image credit: NWS/San Diego.

Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, points out the absence of the usual July circulation patterns that shove Northeast Pacific hurricanes westward before they can influence the United States so strongly. “Typically in July you have a strong subtropical ridge centered over Mexico and a quick westward steering induced by the ridge,” Landsea told me. “This year, that ridge is much weaker.” Although Dolores did not reach Southern California, it edged further north than almost any other Northeast Pacific system on record for July (see Figure 4 below).

SoCal’s natural, but imperfect, buffer against hurricanes
The ocean circulation that keeps California’s coastal climate naturally air-conditioned also helps protect the state from direct hurricane landfalls. Prevailing sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are far too cool to support a tropical cyclone, even as far south as San Diego. Hundreds of miles further south, though, summer and autumn SSTs are more than warm enough to make the Northeast Pacific (also called the Eastern North Pacific) fertile ground for hurricane formation. This is especially true during El Niño, which typically pushes SSTs above average across the Northeast Pacific hurricane genesis region. El Niño also provides favorable dynamics for development, as rising motion and weak upper winds tend to predominate across the Northeast Pacific. Heavy rains often result when moisture streams into the western U.S. from tropical cyclones in this region. Sometimes the remnants of tropical systems move bodily into Southern California from the Pacific, but a more dangerous approach can be from the southeast, via the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of California, where SSTs can soar above 29°C (84°F). One can also envision a strong hurricane developing west of Mexico and moving north quickly enough to maintain some of its power into southern California.


Figure 4. Tracks of the 223 tropical cyclones in the NOAA Historical Hurricanes database that occurred in July (1950 – 2013) across the Northeast Pacific. Dolores was tracked by the National Hurricane Center until it became a remnant low late on Saturday, July 18, near latitude 25.6°N, a location near the top of the tracks shown here. Tropical cyclones are more likely to affect the southwest U.S. in August, September, and October than in July. Image credit: NOAA.

California’s tropical cyclone history
A roundup published in 1997 by the Los Angeles (Oxnard) office of the National Weather Service summarized the seven years of the 20th century in which at least two tropical cyclones affected Southern California: 1921, 1939, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1983, and 1997. The office stated that six of those seven were classified as El Niño years. Most of these occurred with El Niño conditions taking hold during the autumn, with 1921 being the La Niña outlier. In addition, the highest winds ever recorded with a tropical cyclone in the Southwest U.S. were from Hurricane Kathleen, which delivered sustained winds of 57 mph at Yuma, Arizona, on September 10, 1976—another El Niño-onset year. Torrential rains over far southeast California (as much as 14.76” at Mount San Gorgonio—see PDF) and related flooding ripped out parts of I-8 and other roads and damaged or destroyed hundreds of homes, inflicting an estimated $160 million in damage.


Figure 5. Tracks and intensities of Hurricanes Kathleen (tracking through California and Nevada as an extratropical system) and Nora (paralleling the Colorado River as a tropical storm and tropical depression). Image credit: NOAA.

The region got a startle in September 1997 when Category 5 Hurricane Linda became the most powerful storm ever recorded in the Northeast Pacific. At one point, some computer models predicted that a weakening Linda would recurve into or near southern California, and long-range forecasts from the National Hurricane Center briefly depicted this scenario. The Oxnard NWS office addressed the potential in public statements and forecast discussions, according to the NHC report on Linda. “Some of these products specifically mentioned the uncertainties in forecasting Linda and asked the media not to overdramatize the storm,” the report noted. Only a few days later, fast-moving Hurricane Nora entered the United States with tropical-storm-force winds near the CA/AZ border after cruising north along the east side of Baja California. “The threat to the southwestern United States was unusual and required an unprecedented coordination between the NHC and offices in the NWS Western Region,” said the the NHC’s report on Nora. Heavy rains over the U.S. Southwest were much less than during Kathleen, but damage may have topped $100 million.

The big ones: 1939 and 1858
The most ominous precedents for the megalopolis from San Diego to Los Angeles are the 1858 San Diego hurricane mentioned above and a deadly 1939 system that struck Long Beach as a tropical storm. The 1939 cyclone appears to have reached minimal Category 1 strength on the day before before its northward track brought it into San Pedro, CA (just west of Long Beach) on September 25, bringing an intense week-long heat wave to a dramatic end. Remnants of three other cyclones had affected southern California earlier in the month, as noted in the NWS summary, and moisture surging into the area ahead of the September 25 storm helped trigger heavy rains the day before landfall. In addition, modern flood control devices were not yet in place. The storm gave Los Angeles its 24-hour rainfall record for September with 5.24”, and Mount Wilson picked up 11.60”. An estimated 45 deaths occurred during the storm, including some at sea. Wind damage was minimal, although windows were reportedly blown out across Long Beach. The storm cost an estimated $2 million in 1939 dollars; such a storm would probably cause hundreds of millions in damage today, given the growth in population and wealth across the area.

Less is known about the 1858 San Diego hurricane, although independent researcher Michael Chenoweth teamed up with Chris Landsea to put together the first detailed analysis of the storm, published in the November 2004 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Chenoweth and Landsea drew on daily weather reports collected by U.S. Army medical staff, as well as California newspaper accounts and U.S. Coast Survey notebooks. On October 13, 1858, the Daily Alta California reprinted coverage from the San Diego Herald that included this account:

“About 11 o’clock A.M. of Saturday, 2d instant, a terrific gale sprung up from the S.S.E. and continued with perfect fury until about 5 P.M., when it somewhat abated, and rain commenced to fall. It blew with such violence, and the air was filled with such dense clouds of dust, that it was impossible to see across the Plaza, and it was with the greatest difficulty that pedestrians could walk the streets. The damage to property was considerable; houses were unroofed and blown down, trees uprooted, and fences destroyed. It is said to have been the severest gale ever witnessed in San Diego.”

Based on the reported leveling of trees and complete destruction of some homes, comparable to F1/F2 damage on the original Fujita tornado damage scale, Chenoweth and Landsea concluded that sustained winds on the order of 50 to 68 knots (57 – 78 mph) appear to have occurred. “We assume that the more substantial buildings were only unroofed, and weaker structures completely destroyed,” they wrote. “The F2 damage was probably done by the higher gusts during the hurricane, accompanied with structural weakening due to the [four hours] of high winds. The account of ships being driven ashore, the visually estimated winds, and structural damages from winds are all consistent with a category-1 hurricane impact in San Diego.”

What would happen this time?
San Diego County’s population in 1860 was a mere 4324, compared to more than 3.2 million today. To the north, there are some 3 million people in Orange County and about 10 million in Los Angeles County. The massive growth in population and wealth would clearly make a reprise of the 1858 hurricane a much more serious affair, inflicting at least a few hundreds of millions in damage, according to Landsea. Although wind damage is an obvious concern, the region already experiences howling gales as a result of Santa Ana and gap-wind events, where gusts can top 60 mph. A prolonged Santa Ana might produce wind damage comparable to a tropical-storm landfall, says Landsea. His bigger concern is inland flooding: “If you got a direct hit by a hurricane, some of the coastal mountains could see 10” or even 15” of rain. The rainfall-produced flooding would be severe. Wind impact would be more secondary.” Unlike much of the Gulf and Atlantic coastline, storm surge would be a relatively minor problem, thanks to the steep topography along most of the Southern California Coast.

The National Hurricane Center has never issued official advisories for any land areas in California (or Arizona). That could change if a storm like Linda targeted the coast. “We’d be looking at tropical storm watches or warnings and perhaps hurricane watches or warnings. We’d also have the same type of coordination with local offices that we now have in the Eastern and Southern Regions [of the NWS]. All this is in place. We know we will again someday have a tropical storm or hurricane in this area.”

This 2012 NASA interview with researcher Bill Patzert discusses the California hurricane risk in more detail. See also this 2011 article by NHC director Rick Knabb, who lists San Diego as the nation’s second-most-overdue hurricane strike.

Bob Henson


Video 1. A short video documentary with newspaper clips and 16-mm film of the 1939 tropical storm as it approached Newport Beach, CA.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Henson! Looks like El-Nino is really showing it's works in California.
Another hot and humid one on tap today, already in the upper 80s and if you add the humidity really feels like the mid 90s. We are finally going to get relief tomorrow.
thankyou
time to sell these people some hurricane shutters.....Pedley....where are you...have i got a deal for you...and free financing to boot!!!!!!



NAM picking up on the potential Friday development off the SE coast.
Quoting 3. Climate175:

Another hot and humid one on tap today, already in the upper 80s and if you add the humidity really feels like the mid 90s. We are finally going to get relief tomorrow.


Likely not as bad as yesterday though. Looking forward to tomorrow to get long overdue yardwork done.

I moved to DC in Aug. 1964 when I was six. From then to 1978 there were no 80 degree nights. I was on duty as night waterer (a tough job!) at Washington Golf and Country Club in mid July 1978 when we had our first 80 degree night at DCA and it was hot! We've had many since.

Quoting 5. ricderr:

time to sell these people some hurricane shutters.....Pedley....where are you...have i got a deal for you...and free financing to boot!!!!!!






Most people paint them the color of the house and they don't look so bad. They are usually held in place by a top, bottom and side frame rails with many wing nut screws. They can be a PIA to put up and take down, but offer very good protection.
35 foot boat in the Pacific Ocean with huge waves? Sometimes I just don't understand.
Thanks Mr. Henson. Neat video of the 1939 Hurricane.
Most people paint them the color of the house and they don't look so bad. They are held in place by a top and bottom and side frame rails and many wing nut screws. They can be a PIA to put up and take down, but offer very good protection.


i had accordian shutters in both of my houses when i lived in florida...i was buttoned up in less than 20 minutes
Quoting 8. Sfloridacat5:



Most people paint them the color of the house and they don't look so bad. They are usually held in place by a top, bottom and side frame rails with many wing nut screws. They can be a PIA to put up and take down, but offer very good protection.
We had those in Charley. Worked very well..Can be difficult to install, but not always.
Our warmer, more Water Vapor Laden atmosphere, is showing its muscle.

Globally.
i better cut my grass before fri then
Interesting read, Bob. Great regional storm history.
Thank You Mr. Henson; another outstanding entry with a great history for SoCal in terms of tropical storms.

This begs the question for this E-Pac season; will the E-Pac generate a few tropical storms this El Nino year (in the August/September overlap period with the Atlantic season) that may take a trajectory towards SoCal? No way to know what will happen but we need to keep an eye on coming MJO pulses in August/Sept and ridging patterns over Mexico in terms of steering patterns. Could end up being a very interesting two months irrespective of the lower numbers on the Atlantic side of the equation.
Just thinking if we get a lot storms in e-pac some may cross over into the Gulf in Sept. & Oct.
Hmmm, Gee, and Huh?

Quoting 8. Sfloridacat5:



Most people paint them the color of the house and they don't look so bad. They are usually held in place by a top, bottom and side frame rails with many wing nut screws. They can be a PIA to put up and take down, but offer very good protection.

After visiting Europe and living with actual shutters, it looks really strange to have special shutters on a house with faux shutters. Why don't people in hurricane areas just outfit their houses (windows AND doors) with honest-to-goodness shutters? Are they not good for hurricane damage prevention for some reason? I mean, I know you might need a better clasp system or something, but battening down the hatches would be as simple as closing the windows.
Quoting 20. JazzChi:


After visiting Europe and living with actual shutters, it looks really strange to have special shutters on a house with faux shutters. Why don't people in hurricane areas just outfit their houses (windows AND doors) with honest-to-goodness shutters? Are they not good for hurricane damage prevention for some reason? I mean, I know you might need a better clasp system or something, but battening down the hatches would be as simple as closing the windows.


Most do, as one example is not the whole of millions.

Typical cottage Home in NOLA.

Quoting 21. Patrap:



Most do, as one example is not the whole of millions.

Typical cottage Home in NOLA.




Ah, good. I was hoping people hadn't lost their minds and forgotten what those little window dressings are actually for (nice to keep out the sun as well). Now that you mention it, I recall B&Bs in Charleston and Savannah with real working shutters. That picture just was bizarre to me... specially engineered shutters on a house with faux ones.
Quoting 19. Patrap:

Hmmm, Gee, and Huh?




Interesting swirl in Water Vapor loop.
Interesting new study on the issue of carbon emissions and the US recession. I am certain that whatever emissions reduced over here were overshadowed by emissions in Asia (with China still at an average 9% GDP growth rate over the period from 1989 through 2015).

http://news.sciencemag.org/economics/2015/07/grea t-recession-was-good-environment


Climate-warming carbon emissions in the United States fell about 11% between 2007 and 2013. Some media reports have attributed much of that decline to an ongoing shift from coal toward natural gas for generating electrical power, but a new study suggests that the largest influence by far is the slump in the U.S. economy. Researchers looked at how six different factors—including population growth, shifts in consumer habits, and changes in the mix of fossil fuels used to generate electrical power, among others—affected carbon emissions trends in the United States from 1997 through 2013. Prior to 2007, rising emissions were driven by economic growth, with 71% of the rise due to increased consumption of goods and services and the remainder pinned on the nation’s population growth, the researchers say. But from 2007 to 2009, only 17% of the steep decline in emissions resulted from decreased use of coal and an increased use of natural gas and renewable sources of energy such as solar and wind power, the team reports online today in Nature Communications. The remainder stemmed from a decreased consumption of goods and services, the researchers note. From 2009 through 2013, even as the economy recovered and the U.S. population grew, carbon emissions fell slightly thanks to high gasoline prices (which stifled consumption), a mild winter in 2012 (which trimmed the demand for home heating), and more energy-efficient manufacturing. The researchers propose, however, that that transient combination of factors likely won’t prevent carbon emissions from rising substantially once the U.S. economy kicks into a higher gear.
I recommend watching watching the entire video documentary of the 1939 storm. Pretty amazing; also, some things, or should I say people, never change.
Thanks, Bob. It's still amazing to me that a storm can run the gauntlet straight up the Baja coast without getting too close, and do it quickly enough to retain tropical characteristics. Although, what Dolores did in July, while moving fairly slow, does demonstrate the possibility fairly well.


Up to 0.55" so far today. It has been raining off and on for most of the day.
CO2 ppm will continue to rise at a steady rate as predicted.


In 2013, global CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel use (and cement production) were 36 gigatonnes (GtCO2); this is 61% higher than 1990 (the Kyoto Protocol reference year) and 2.3% higher than 2012.
An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for my area for the first time since 2012. Heat indices are already nearing 110F and should rise even higher over the coming hours.

Thanks for the very interesting read about surprising weather in California and its history, Bob!

And here another package of European heatwave news:


Temps at 3 pm today.

Swiss army moo-ves out to keep cows cool during heat wave
Associated Press, Tuesday, Jul 21, 2015 12:15 PM +0200

Vienna bans public BBQs during heatwave
The Local (Austria), Published: 21 Jul 2015 14:28 GMT+02:00

Last year Italy and adjacent countries experienced a very wet and cool summer while it was hot in Scandinavia. This year it's the other way round (very difficult job for farmers!):

Livelihoods at risk as River Po runs dry
The Local (Italy) Published: 21 Jul 2015 16:12 GMT+02:00
Italy's longest river is drying up fast, putting the livelihoods of many along its banks at risk. ...

Italian heatwave costs farmers at least 200 mln euros -farm body
Reuters, Tue Jul 21, 2015 9:17am GMT

Turkey swelters as 43C heatwave grips south and southwest

Making Europe sweat
PhysOrg, July 21, 2015 by Astrid Tomczak-Plewka
In 2003, Europe experienced a record-breaking summer, and many people feel that this summer is headed the same way. In the midst of this heatwave, the scientific journal Nature Geoscience has published a study that can help us to understand such extreme weather conditions. For around two years, an ETH research team has analysed climate data from all over the world in a bid to explain the driving force behind stable high-pressure systems. It has long been known that extremely stable high-pressure systems in the upper troposphere, that is five to ten kilometres up into the atmosphere, can trigger summer heatwaves. Researchers have termed these special high-pressure conditions 'blocking', since they deflect low-pressure systems and, as a result, may lead to warm weather patterns. These patterns are around 2,000 kilometres in diameter and can span across large swathes of Europe. They interrupt the typical westerly flow from the North Atlantic, which would otherwise determine the weather conditions in our region. ...

BTW, tomorrow the heat should get expelled from Germany with a bang of storms in the mid, south and east of the country. Welcomed by me!
Quoting 31. TropicalAnalystwx13:

An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for my area for the first time since 2012. Heat indices are already nearing 110F and should rise even higher over the coming hours.




we had the heat wave last week one day 96.5º and then the next day 97.1 .. heat index's those days were above 114º at times .. dew point was 65-68º those days with above 70% humidity ..
the mdr especially the eastern atlantic is very dry. africa does not seem to have anything significant either. in short wait a few days.
While the recent rains in SoCal are encouraging, there's still a drought on and big decisions ahead for the U.S. Southwest on how to deal with the thorny issue of water allocation. Naked Capitalism has a good primer on the battles at hand.


Quoting 27. Patrap:

China makes carbon pledge ahead of Paris climate change summit

I'm curious what the pledges of Australia will be ;-)

Australia's war on wind farms threatens biggest renewable project
Source: Reuters - Mon, 20 Jul 2015 00:50 GMT
SYDNEY, July 20 (Reuters) - Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott's hostility to "visually awful" wind farms has sent a chill through the industry and could jeopardize the country's biggest renewable energy project, a $2 billion-plus wind and solar plant in the country's north. ...
Conservative premier Abbott has been a vocal critic of wind farms, which he has also described as "ugly" and "noisy", and has campaigned for coal-fired power. ...
Australia's openly antagonistic stance towards wind farms - Abbott recently called coal "good for humanity" and suggested wind farms were a health hazard - threatens to rankle other nations when they attempt to thrash out a global policy at a climate conference in Paris in November.
Earlier this month, Abbott's government angered its own farm minister by giving final regulatory clearance for China's Shenhua Energy Co Ltd to build a A$1 billion coal mine on prime agricultural land. ...
Quoting 30. Patrap:

CO2 ppm will continue to rise at a steady rate as predicted.


In 2013, global CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel use (and cement production) were 36 gigatonnes (GtCO2); this is 61% higher than 1990 (the Kyoto Protocol reference year) and 2.3% higher than 2012.


I wonder what the CO2 indexes where when the dinosaurs had control of the planet?
You know by this time you would think the people of southern California would insist on finding a way to harness the rain water that falls on them and gets let out to sea...instead we have a mandatory rationing of water state wide. Things that make you go hummm....
Quoting 36. barbamz:


I'm curious what the pledges of Australia will be ;-)

Australia's war on wind farms threatens biggest renewable project
Source: Reuters - Mon, 20 Jul 2015 00:50 GMT
SYDNEY, July 20 (Reuters) - Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott's hostility to "visually awful" wind farms has sent a chill through the industry and could jeopardize the country's biggest renewable energy project, a $2 billion-plus wind and solar plant in the country's north. ...
Conservative premier Abbott has been a vocal critic of wind farms, which he has also described as "ugly" and "noisy", and has campaigned for coal-fired power. ...
Australia's openly antagonistic stance towards wind farms - Abbott recently called coal "good for humanity" and suggested wind farms were a health hazard - threatens to rankle other nations when they attempt to thrash out a global policy at a climate conference in Paris in November.
Earlier this month, Abbott's government angered its own farm minister by giving final regulatory clearance for China's Shenhua Energy Co Ltd to build a A$1 billion coal mine on prime agricultural land. ...



I agree indeed, but I'm also very aware of the deep "Political Right's Derp" there as they control the Gub'ment.

Or, in local slang there,...."toss a nutter shrimp and BBL of oil on the Barbie, mate"
Quoting 35. rayduray2013:

While the recent rains in SoCal are encouraging, there's still a drought on and big decisions ahead for the U.S. Southwest on how to deal with the thorny issue of water allocation. Naked Capitalism has a good primer on the battles at hand.




You would think that by now the people in southern California would figure out a way to harness the rain water they get instead of letting it flow out to sea. Instead we have state wide water rationing going on. Things that make you go hummmm.....
Quoting 37. SweetCherries:



I wonder what the CO2 indexes where when the dinosaurs had control of the planet?


Higher.
The dinosaurs are gone.

Next question.
   Thanks for that new Post Mr. Hanson....
Quoting 28. TimSoCal:

Thanks, Bob. It's still amazing to me that a storm can run the gauntlet straight up the Baja coast without getting too close, and do it quickly enough to retain tropical characteristics. Although, what Dolores did in July, while moving fairly slow, does demonstrate the possibility fairly well.


My nightmare is a storm doing the same thing up the 30C Chesapeake Bay then hanging left up the Potomac.
Quoting 37. SweetCherries:



I wonder what the CO2 indexes where when the dinosaurs had control of the planet?
The dinosaurs never "had control of the planet"--which probably helps to explain why they managed to stick around for many tens of millions of years until a massive meteorite wiped them out. We homo sapiens don't have control of it either, though we're certainly proving very adept at trying to destroy it in just 100,000 years or so.
Quoting 37. SweetCherries:



I wonder what the CO2 indexes where when the dinosaurs had control of the planet?


If only people had studied that.

Quoting 44. SweetCherries:



Considering that China's economy is mainly based on the coal industry (making low cost/low grade steel) this should be interesting to watch.


"China is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, so small decreases in its emissions seem like monumental feats when compared to other countries. According to a new analysis, in the first four months of 2015, China’s coal use fell almost 8 percent compared to the same period last year — a reduction in emissions that’s approximately equal to the total carbon dioxide emissions of the U.K. over the same period.

In 2014, China cut domestic consumption of coal by 2.9 percent, the first drop in more than a decade, with coal production also falling 2.5 percent. China’s carbon emissions also fell last year for the first time in over a decade, dropping 2 percent in 2014 compared to 2013." Link
Quoting 39. Patrap:


Or, in local slang there,...."toss a nutter shrimp and BBL of oil on the Barbie, mate"


Lol, reminds me of the difficulties to read a novel from James Lee Burke in English (as I often do, and some of them are even weather related). Online dictionnary is on strike when I try to look up the local vocab!

----------------------------



Quoting 47. Naga5000:



"China is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, so small decreases in its emissions seem like monumental feats when compared to other countries. According to a new analysis, in the first four months of 2015, China’s coal use fell almost 8 percent compared to the same period last year — a reduction in emissions that’s approximately equal to the total carbon dioxide emissions of the U.K. over the same period.

In 2014, China cut domestic consumption of coal by 2.9 percent, the first drop in more than a decade, with coal production also falling 2.5 percent. China’s carbon emissions also fell last year for the first time in over a decade, dropping 2 percent in 2014 compared to 2013." Link


That in part is due to the fact that we are not producing coal as we used to just a few years ago. China was the largest purchaser of our coal.
Quoting 36. barbamz:


I'm curious what the pledges of Australia will be ;-)

Australia's war on wind farms threatens biggest renewable project
Source: Reuters - Mon, 20 Jul 2015 00:50 GMT
SYDNEY, July 20 (Reuters) - Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott's hostility to "visually awful" wind farms has sent a chill through the industry and could jeopardize the country's biggest renewable energy project, a $2 billion-plus wind and solar plant in the country's north. ...
Conservative premier Abbott has been a vocal critic of wind farms, which he has also described as "ugly" and "noisy", and has campaigned for coal-fired power. ...
Australia's openly antagonistic stance towards wind farms - Abbott recently called coal "good for humanity" and suggested wind farms were a health hazard - threatens to rankle other nations when they attempt to thrash out a global policy at a climate conference in Paris in November.
Earlier this month, Abbott's government angered its own farm minister by giving final regulatory clearance for China's Shenhua Energy Co Ltd to build a A$1 billion coal mine on prime agricultural land. ...



Meanwhile Sou asks "Poll: which is the ugliest:- a coal mine or farmland or Tony Abbott?"


The results

What is the most ugly?

A coal mine 30.77% (24 votes)


Farmland 0% (0 votes)


Box gum woodland 2.56% (2 votes)


Wind turbines 2.56% (2 votes)


Solar panels 0% (0 votes)


Joe Hockey 3.85% (3 votes)


Tony Abbott 60.26% (47 votes)



Total Votes: 78
This should be interesting.



Oh, heres a sat image too.



Quoting 48. SweetCherries:


Since all plant life needs CO2 to produce oxygen how can we be overly concerned about a process that keeps us alive? Yes I know we produce more than enough CO2, but when you live among the tall trees, as I do, it's hard to get too excited about people who choose to live in smog infested cities crying about the CO2 levels that they are producing.


I see we are just running through the denier tropes.
Quoting 50. SweetCherries:



That in part is due to the fact that we are not producing coal as we used to just a few years ago. China was the largest purchaser of our coal.


I notice our newest obfuscator has a suspiciously small number of comments.


First Half Of 2015 Was Hottest Ever Recorded

The Earth is on track to beating 2014 as the hottest year ever recorded.

Associated Press

By Seth Borenstein


WASHINGTON (AP) — Earth dialed the heat up in June, smashing warm temperature records for both the month and the first half of the year.

Off-the-charts heat is "getting to be a monthly thing," said Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. June was the fourth month of 2015 that set a record, she said.

"There is almost no way that 2015 isn't going to be the warmest on record," she added.

NOAA calculated that the world's average temperature in June hit 61.48 degrees Fahrenheit (16.33 Celsius), breaking the old record set last year by 0.22 degrees (.12 degrees Celsius). Usually temperature records are broken by one or two one-hundredths of a degree, not nearly a quarter of a degree, Blunden said.

And the picture is even more dramatic when the half-year is considered.



The first six months of 2015 were one-sixth of a degree warmer than the old record, set in 2010, averaging 57.83 degrees (14.35 Celsius).

The old record for the first half of the year was set in 2010, the last time there was an El Nino — a warming of the central Pacific Ocean that changes weather worldwide. But in 2010, the El Nino petered out. This year, forecasters are predicting this El Nino will get stronger, not weaker.

"If that happens, it's just going to go off the charts," Blunden said.


June was warm nearly all over the world, with exceptional heat in Spain, Austria, parts of Asia, Australia and South America. Southern Pakistan had a June heat wave that killed more than 1,200 people — which, according to an international database, would be the eighth deadliest in the world since 1900. In May, a heat wave in India claimed more than 2,000 lives and ranked as the fifth deadliest on record.

May and March also broke monthly heat records, which go back 136 years. Initially NOAA figured February 2015 was only the second hottest February on record, but new data came in that made it too the hottest, Blunden said. Earth has broken monthly heat records 25 times since the year 2000, but hasn't broken a monthly cold record since 1916.

"This is what anthropogenic global warming looks like, just hotter and hotter," said Jonathan Overpeck, co-director of the Institute of the Environment at the University of Arizona.

Online:

NOAA June global analysis: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201506

___

Seth Borenstein can be followed at http://twitter.com/borenbears

___

This story has been corrected with new data showing June was the fourth record-setting month of 2015, not the third.
"For Today's weather HOT,HOT and HOT." "Now let's turn it back over to Veronica and Jerold at the news desk."
Update (see somewhere in the latest comments of the last blog) on the flashfloods which hit Iran on Sunday, causing the collapse of big buildings:

Heavy rains flood roads in northern Iran
Source: Radio Zamaneh, 07/21/15
Heavy torrential rains have flooded Chaloos and Haraz roads in Tehran and Alborz Provinces so far killing 35 people. Fifty vehicles are also reportedly missing in the Asara region of the two mountainous roads. Meanwhile five villages have been trapped by floods and another six were killed in Sijan from the floods. ...

Quoting 54. Naga5000:






Looks like #50 is putting the cart before the horse.
Quoting 48. SweetCherries:


Since all plant life needs CO2 to produce oxygen how can we be overly concerned about a process that keeps us alive? Yes I know we produce more than enough CO2, but when you live among the tall trees, as I do, it's hard to get too excited about people who choose to live in smog infested cities crying about the CO2 levels that they are producing.


It's because a significant and rapid change in atmospheric CO2 results in a significant and rapid change in climate. We are leaving the stable climate in which human civilization developed, and the stable climate that has been doing such a good job at keeping us alive.
Here are the current economic stats for China through June 2015. It is critical and important that they (and the other industrialized nations) sign on to carbon emission reduction and it is good news (as posted below) that they are on-board with reductions:

The Chinese economy grew an annual 7.0 percent in the second quarter of 2015, the same pace as in the previous three-month period and slightly beating market consensus. An increase in manufacturing and a rebound in exports were able to offset cooling property market and steady investment. In June, the industrial sector expanded 6.8 percent year-on-year, accelerating from 6.1 percent in the previous month . The manufacturing sector rose 7.7 percent, mining was up 2.7 percent and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased 2.1 percent.

Quoting 48. SweetCherries:


Since all plant life needs CO2 to produce oxygen


plants also need good weather. higher CO2 is meaningless when summer is too hot to live.
I don't know enough about the "pull" of scientists in China on the government and policy makers in terms of their official stance (the State) on climate change issues but we do know that the Chinese have some excellent weather and meteorology programs at the Universities there and even many prominent Chinese scholars on the issue of tropical storms and such. Between that, and the smog and pollution that average Chinese people see in the streets of many parts of the Country, I am thinking that the Chinese understand the issues and what is at stake.
Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion


Excerpt:

Several dynamical models also indicate a moderate potential for a weak tropical or subtropical cyclone forming off the southeastern U.S. coast along a frontal boundary. If further eastward propagation of the MJO signal over the Indian Ocean materializes, vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic may relax, which would make conditions more conducive for tropical cyclogenesis. The potential for development across this region remains fairly low at this time, however, so no shape was depicted on this outlook. No additional tropical cyclogenesis is anticipated over the West Pacific.



Ah, good. I was hoping people hadn't lost their minds and forgotten what those little window dressings are actually for (nice to keep out the sun as well). Now that you mention it, I recall B&Bs in Charleston and Savannah with real working shutters. That picture just was bizarre to me... specially engineered shutters on a house with faux ones.



true wooden shutters look great...but they are not hurricane rated
Dear Baby Jesus:

Please send a long track tropical system our way so that this Blog can once again return to the reason why most of us are here.

Sincerely,

Me
One killed, over 1 mln affected by rainstorms in NW China
Reporter: Yu Li 丨 CCTV.com, 07-21-2015 05:42 BJT (with video)
Massive rainstorms have shattered rainfall records and caused a fatal accident in Zizhou county of northwest China's Shaanxi Province. It was one of the worst hit regions over a wet weekend across much of China. ...

Mudslides In Tajikistan Kill At Least Seven
RFE, Tuesday 21st July, 2015
DUSHANBE -- Mudslides and floods caused by melting glaciers have killed at least seven people in Tajikistan's eastern region of Gorno-Badakhshan over the last few days. ...
Quoting 69. NOLALawyer:

Dear Baby Jesus:

Please send a long track tropical system our way so that this Blog can once again return to the reason why most of us are here.

Sincerely,

Me
Make sure the storm is going in your direction.I don't want another one even looking like it's eyeing the east coast.
Quoting 69. NOLALawyer:

Dear Baby Jesus:

Please send a long track tropical system our way so that this Blog can once again return to the reason why most of us are here.

Sincerely,

Me
I've never understood what makes some people presume to know "why most of us are here". Seems like a rather provincial assumption, if you ask me. I mean, I know why I'm here, and most of you probably know why you're here. But that self-knowledge can't be extrapolated and projected onto others, so nothing more should be assumed. The fallacy of composition is an insidious one, and should be avoided at all costs...
Quoting 69. NOLALawyer:

Dear Baby Jesus:

Please send a long track tropical system our way so that this Blog can once again return to the reason why most of us are here.

Sincerely,

Me


Use the ignore function, it works wonders. It doesn't block out all of the noise, but most of it.
Quoting 45. Neapolitan:

The dinosaurs never "had control of the planet"--which probably helps to explain why they managed to stick around for many tens of millions of years until a massive meteorite wiped them out. We homo sapiens don't have control of it either, though we're certainly proving very adept at trying to destroy it in just 100,000 years or so.
I would say more like 150 years or so..Old transcripts from ancestors thousands of years ago say the coal used then was plucked from surface finds with little or no digging...Demand was somewhat lower then, and pollution was minimal.
Quoting 41. georgevandenberghe:



Higher.
The dinosaurs are gone.

Next question.
Yes the dinosaurs are gone but not from CO2. Humans will not disappear from CO2 either. One more thing, whyar4 the NCEP temp. charts not the same as all the other world temp. charts that show up on this site? After all the NCEP charts use the most current and accurate info.
Quoting 72. washingtonian115:

Make sure the storm is going in your direction.I don't want another one even looking like it's eyeing the east coast.


Unless it's a snow* storm
Quoting 73. Neapolitan:

I've never understood what makes some people presume to know "why most of us are here". Seems like a rather provincial assumption, if you ask me. I mean, I know why I'm here, and most of you probably know why you're here. But that self-knowledge can't be extrapolated and projected onto others, so nothing more should be assumed. The fallacy of composition is an insidious one, and should be avoided at all costs...
Know why I,m here... a couple had few drinks in the Keys, the rest is history.
Quoting 77. Drakoen:



Unless it's a snow* storm
Well those are a exception :) and are less likely to cause wind damage with power outages.
Quoting 75. hydrus:

I would say more like 150 years or so..Old transcripts from ancestors thousands of years ago say the coal used then was plucked from surface finds with little or no digging...Demand was somewhat lower then, and pollution was minimal.
Yes. But I was just saying that dinosaurs were here for 165 million years, and would still be going strong if not for the rock from space. We of the homo sapiens, on the other hand, have only been around 0.06% as long, and have just about succeeded in ending ourselves.

Yee-haw...
Quoting 55. tlawson48:

I notice our newest obfuscator has a suspiciously small number of comments.
Had to learn to spell before commenting...it happens
Quoting 76. NativeSun:

Yes the dinosaurs are gone but not from CO2. Humans will not disappear from CO2 either. One more thing, whyar4 the NCEP temp. charts not the same as all the other world temp. charts that show up on this site? After all the NCEP charts use the most current and accurate info.


What does that mean? Please share your knowledge of the NCEP methodology with us, if you would.
A long track storm is currently out of the question shear-wise; may have to wait until August:

Quoting 73. Neapolitan:

I've never understood what makes some people presume to know "why most of us are here". Seems like a rather provincial assumption, if you ask me. I mean, I know why I'm here, and most of you probably know why you're here. But that self-knowledge can't be extrapolated and projected onto others, so nothing more should be assumed. The fallacy of composition is an insidious one, and should be avoided at all costs...


Don't be supercilious. People come here to discuss many things, but the vast majority are interested in tropical weather.
Quoting 52. Patrap:

This should be interesting.



Oh, heres a sat image too.




That deserves watching..I never trust a spin with a cloud in it over the gulf during the season...regardless of what the month is.
Dear Baby Jesus:

Please send a long track tropical system our way so that this Blog can once again return to the reason why most of us are here.

Sincerely,

Me


i read this and saw this.......



Don't be supercilious. People come here to discuss many things, but the vast majority are interested in tropical weather.

i would disagree....as if that were true....the majority of time this blog would be dead....and that's just not the case
Quoting 86. hydrus:

That deserves watching..I never trust a spin with a cloud in it over the gulf during the season...regardless of what the month is.


I was watching that too; it's a huge upper level tutt cell moving up from the Yucatan. I was more interested in how it might interact with the supposed "one-model" storm for the Eastern Gulf based upon a remnant from the stalled front.........Have to see if the tutt cell it still there come Friday and whether there is any viable remnant that it could potentially ventilate if the right distance is kept; or, prevent from formation if too close with the dry air and related stability.



Quoting 80. Neapolitan:

Yes. But I was just saying that dinosaurs were here for 165 million years, and would still be going strong if not for the rock from space. We of the homo sapiens, on the other hand, have only been around 0.06% as long, and have just about succeeded in ending ourselves.

Yee-haw...
Yep..Did some reading about the rock you mention. Anything weighing 14,560 million tonnes moving at 55,000 miles an hour will punch a large hole in the earth with the effects lasting millennia..It was said that the Deccan Traps were doing there thing at the same time as the impact...made things bad around here to be sure.
This is what you get when you type in Google "Tropical Weather"..WU at the top of the page..excellent until you get here..


This is what you get when you type in Google "Climate Change" ..funny no WU comes up..same for "Global Warming" as well..Why is that?


I think its apparent why people come to WU!!!
Quoting 85. NOLALawyer:



Don't be supercilious. People come here to discuss many things, but the vast majority are interested in tropical weather.
Oh, wait. Now you're talking about what "the vast majority" is interested in? Earlier you were talking about "the reason why most of us are here". Them's two different things, cap'n. Yes, most of us here are interested in tropical weather. No, tropical weather may not be the reason "most" of us are here.
Quoting 91. ncstorm:

This is what you get when you type in Google "Tropical Weather"..WU at the top of the page..excellent until you get here..


This is what you get when you type in Google "Climate Change" ..funny no WU comes up..same for "Global Warming" as well..Why is that?



This may help answer your question.
Quoting 57. washingtonian115:

"For Today's weather HOT,HOT and HOT." "Now let's turn it back over to Veronica and Jerold at the news desk."

D.C. has already had more 90 degree days in 2015 than all of 2014
Capital Weather Gang, By Jason Samenow July 21 at 3:03 PM
The temperature touched at least 90 degrees in D.C. early this afternoon (as measured at Reagan National Airport) for the 25th time this calendar year. That means, with almost half of the summer still to come, we have already surpassed last year’s total number of days at or above 90 degrees. ...
While most of D.C.’s hot temperatures this summer have not been record-challenging, the past two oppressively muggy mornings have proven exceptional.
On Monday morning, the low in D.C. fell to a mere 82 degrees, the warmest on record for July 20 and tied for the third warmest of any low temperature back to 1871. ...
Just looked across the various model runs and can't find any spinning anything up in the gulf; a few of them want to spin a storm up off the Carolinas (and out to sea) in the longer period. If anyone can find a model I have missed spinning up something near Florida please share (the one folks were discussing a few days ago; I forgot which one).
Naga, I think Google pretty much answered why people come to WU..and why the GW comments are getting flagged more and more every day..

The "real" community is tired..
Let's see if that TUTT works its rotation down. It is spinning quite a bit at the moment and is in a moist environment
Quoting 89. weathermanwannabe:



I was watching that too; it's a huge upper level tutt cell moving up from the Yucatan. I was more interested in how it might interact with the supposed "one-model" storm for the Eastern Gulf based upon a remnant from the stalled front.........Have to see if the tutt cell it still there come Friday and whether there is any viable remnant that it could potentially ventilate if the right distance is kept; or, prevent from formation if too close with the dry air and related stability.




NC, did you know if you search for "global warming weather" WU shows up on the first page? Have you stopped to think that the term weather may have something to do with the indexing of "Weather Underground"since it does share a term with the title of the web page. This is one of the sillier arguments I've seen in awhile. I urge you to read how searches work, the link I posted in 93. Thanks and have a good day.
Quoting 96. ncstorm:

Naga, I think Google pretty much answered why people come to WU..and why the GW comments are getting flagged more and more every day..

The "real" community is tired..


Sigh. Is there any logical leap you won't make? See post 98 and read the link in 93. Edit: Search for "climate change weather"has WU on the first page as well. Man, it really looks like maybe the term weather has something to do with it? Have you read how searches work yet? I fully expect you to do that so you can correct your unsupported statement....
Quoting 97. gator23:

Let's see if that TUTT works its rotation down. It is spinning quite a bit at the moment and is in a moist environment



I-We have been watching upper level tutt cells spin around now for the last several seasons during this time of the year (and just after the peak period) and I have yet to see one work down and form a storm (a very rare event)...Just Sayin.. :)
Da blog is startin to show some color again....an i dont mean tha sat pics..:)
True, but look at the vorticity map. There is a weakness over Cuba where the TUTT can break. Honestly on satellite it looks like it already has.
Quoting 100. weathermanwannabe:



I-We have been watching upper level tutt cells spin around now for the last several seasons during this time of the year (and just after the peak period) and I have yet to see one work down and form a storm (a very rare event)...Just Sayin.. :)
The bridge inspectors got out in CA & AR, found two more highway bridges that needed shoring up.
The Good, Gross, and Eerie of LA's Weird Weekend Weather
Tuesday, July 21, 2015, by Bianca Barragan
... But while there's no doubt we can use all the rain we can get in Southern California, it did do some gross things too.
When Heal the Bay's beach report card came out in June with brag-worthy numbers for many LA-area beaches, experts said part of the reason for the cleanliness was the extreme drought; with less rain runoff to carry contaminants into the sea, the water was markedly less polluted. But storms on Saturday and Sunday brought what's called the "first flush" to SoCal beaches, says KPCC, essentially carrying the contents of the toilet bowl that is Los Angeles—trash, chemicals, bacteria, and other good stuff— into the pipes and out to the ocean.
That brought "a rare amount of pollution" to beaches—LA, Orange, Ventura, and San Diego Counties all warned beachgoers to stay away from the waves. (Runoff from a storm like the one last weekend can cause "stomach flus and rashes.") The rule of thumb to follow, apparently, is to avoid beaches for 72 hours after the rain stops. ...

Whole article see link above.

Quoting 40. SweetCherries:


You would think that by now the people in southern California would figure out a way to harness the rain water they get instead of letting it flow out to sea. Instead we have state wide water rationing going on. Things that make you go hummmm.....
The Santa Margarita River which flows through Temecula and Camp Pendleton is the second largest drainage in SoCal. Yesterday it flowed at 39 cfs in comparison with a flow of 3 cfs a couple days earlier. This is simply a trivial amount of water. You need to do more study of California's plumbing before going hmmmm. A good place to start? Marc Reisner's "Cadillac Desert" is smartly written and very informative.
I believe I provided screen shots and I'm sure the general public would search the way as I did..

but if you feel the word "weather" and "Climate Change/Global Warming" are to be included together in a search when you guys have claimed so much in the past that they arent the same, then that wouldn't be bright for those science folks..

I'm finished with it..just wanted to let those know lurking why people really come to WU..remember its about informing them most importantly as that is one of the most used reasons here regarding why 30 handles have to answer one comment..

You have a GREAT day!!






Quoting 88. ricderr:

Don't be supercilious. People come here to discuss many things, but the vast majority are interested in tropical weather.

i would disagree....as if that were true....the majority of time this blog would be dead....and that's just not the case


I disagree too (and agree with you ric)...maybe they come to Dr. Masters' to discuss tropical weather...but if you look at the blog listings...it's not focused on tropical weather.

If it was focused on tropical weather, why is this blog quieter than in years past. The Eastern Pacific and the Western Pacific aren't quiet....they've been active.

Most people are only on when there's a threat to themselves, the reason why blog activity goes up during hurricane season is not because people are interested in tropical weather, it's because they want to know if the hurricane will hit them or not.

AGW is a threat, and threats are what draw people in. There are other weather events than just hurricanes, and I don't think a lot of our coastal bloggers realize that sometimes.
Quoting 106. ncstorm:

I believe I provided screen shots and I'm sure the general public would search the way as I did..

but if you feel the word "weather" and "Climate Change/Global Warming" are to be included together in a search when you guys have claimed so much in the past that they arent the same, then that wouldn't be bright for those science folks..

I'm finished with it..just wanted to let those know lurking why people really come to WU..remember its about informing them most importantly as that is one of the most used reasons here regarding why 30 handles have to answer one comment..

You have a GREAT day!!









So I take that as a no? You really don't believe the term "weather" in tropical weather has anything to do with the results. Did you know if you search for Hurricane, WU doesn't show up. Looks like we can't talk about hurricanes here, especially with all the bloggers flagging hurricane posts. Starting to see how absurd your statement was, yet?
Quoting 94. barbamz:


D.C. has already had more 90 degree days in 2015 than all of 2014
Capital Weather Gang, By Jason Samenow July 21 at 3:03 PM
The temperature touched at least 90 degrees in D.C. early this afternoon (as measured at Reagan National Airport) for the 25th time this calendar year. That means, with almost half of the summer still to come, we have already surpassed last year’s total number of days at or above 90 degrees. ...
While most of D.C.’s hot temperatures this summer have not been record-challenging, the past two oppressively muggy mornings have proven exceptional.
On Monday morning, the low in D.C. fell to a mere 82 degrees, the warmest on record for July 20 and tied for the third warmest of any low temperature back to 1871. ...

Roasting at night and during the day.You add in the humidity that has ceased to go away for sometime now and your dealing with a whole other animal.
Quoting 105. rayduray2013:


The Santa Margarita River which flows through Temecula and Camp Pendleton is the second largest drainage in SoCal. Yesterday it flowed at 39 cfs in comparison with a flow of 3 cfs a couple days earlier. This is simply a trivial amount of water. You need to do more study of California's plumbing before going hmmmm. A good place to start? Marc Reisner's "Cadillac Desert" is smartly written and very informative.



Maybe he should rent Chinatown, easier than reading.
its seems when we have an ull things become a bit more favorable. we will see when the tutt releases its grip
Quoting 88. ricderr:

Don't be supercilious. People come here to discuss many things, but the vast majority are interested in tropical weather.

i would disagree....as if that were true....the majority of time this blog would be dead....and that's just not the case


Oh, I think your statement is slightly skewed. The blog may not be dead, but it is only being kept alive by the hot air, of a very few percentage of members. NolaLawyer is right on, with his/her comment.
Legislation in CA was introduced today to hold harmless firefighters if they happen to damaged a drone. That footage we saw last week of cars burning in the highway in Southern California...they suspended retardant drops because drones were flying in the area for fear of damaging their aircraft & say they will continue to do so til something with the drones interfering changes..
Quoting 102. gator23:

True, but look at the vorticity map. The TUTT there is a weakness over Cuba where the TUTT can break



It's a fun watch (all the spinning) to see what happens; there is no vort at or near the surface at present so just have to see how it goes over the next few days. It's an interesting feature with the upper level center of the broad circulation located right on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as far as I can tell from the current WV loops. However, there is no significant convective activity to speak of and shear is pretty high; I am not leaning towards any tropical development until/unless we start to see some persistent convection somewhere in the Gulf.

Lower-Level



Mid-Level
How unusual....jk

Quoting 107. Astrometeor:





Most people are only on when there's a threat to themselves, the reason why blog activity goes up during hurricane season is not because people are interested in tropical weather, it's because they want to know if the hurricane will hit them or not.

AGW is a threat, and threats are what draw people in. There are other weather events than just hurricanes, and I don't think a lot of our coastal bloggers realize that sometimes.


A good point Astrto, I know I discovered this site a few years ago when we had two lines of potential tornados moving across Massachusetts.
Quoting 92. Neapolitan:

Oh, wait. Now you're talking about what "the vast majority" is interested in? Earlier you were talking about "the reason why most of us are here". Them's two different things, cap'n. Yes, most of us here are interested in tropical weather. No, tropical weather may not be the reason "most" of us are here.


Now you are being pedantic. The difference between "vast majority" and "most" is an issue of semantics.
Quoting 109. washingtonian115:

Roasting at night and during the day.You add in the humidity that has ceased to go away for sometime now and your dealing with a whole other animal.

We have had about 100F or around 40/C here for about 4 weeks now, it even got a brief mention in the blog heading.

The UK government says that we UK pensioners who live in warm places cant have a winter fuel bonus of about $300, a lot here are now moaning that they need an AC bonus instead to survive the summers heat waves.
No end in sight the Spanish weather forecaster said tonight, although it wont get much hotter than 41/C for the time being.

Meanwhile on the subject of the dinosaurs and the humans with the CO2, if the worst case scenario I can think of comes about a few decades from now, then the infrastructure of a lot of developed countries will break down, with the loss of power and fossil fuels, leaving to regression into a more localised society of small communities who have the ingenuity to survive. They might by present terminology be called, "primitive?"

Interesting to read in a link from Barbanz that the glaciers seem to be melting so fast that they are causing mudslides. Somewhat worse than a steady thaw. Bearing in mind they said glaciers, not snow!

Quoting 48. SweetCherries:


Since all plant life needs CO2 to produce oxygen how can we be overly concerned about a process that keeps us alive? Yes I know we produce more than enough CO2, but when you live among the tall trees, as I do, it's hard to get too excited about people who choose to live in smog infested cities crying about the CO2 levels that they are producing.
Sweet Jesus,

You really do need to take some basic science courses before further embarrassing yourself. The goal of photosynthesis, whereby plants convert CO2 to other carbon based molecules that the plant uses to grow mass and execute plant functions like reproduction creates O2 molecules as a waste product. The plant doesn't produce oxygen as a goal.

Sheesh. You could start with something as basic as WIkipedia before formulating your comments. Here, for example, is the beginnings of their entry on "photosynthesis":

Photosynthesis is a process used by plants and other organisms to convert light energy, normally from the Sun, into chemical energy that can be later released to fuel the organisms' activities. This chemical energy is stored in carbohydrate molecules, such as sugars, which are synthesized from carbon dioxide and water – hence the name photosynthesis, from the Greek φῶς, phōs, "light", and σύνθεσις, synthesis, "putting together".[1][2][3] In most cases, oxygen is also released as a waste product. [Emph.: mine]

Got it? Only goofy climate science deniers would be caught dead spouting off about oxygen being the product plants produce.

Ay carumba! As the Internet becomes ubiquitous, the average intelligence of users plummets to new lows daily. It's lovely that you live among tall trees, but you shouldn't be trying so hard to emulate them.
Quoting 109. washingtonian115:

Roasting at night and during the day.You add in the humidity that has ceased to go away for sometime now and your dealing with a whole other animal.


Relief for DC metro is only a dozen hours away and will last for several days.

I hope this verifies.
There is still no heat relief in sight for the Tallahassee/Big Bend...........I have been breaking out
in sweat every morning for the last week walking the dog out at 6:30 am and again in the early
evening after work....And a light shower does not help; then "steam" rises from the road for
about an hour....................Lol.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES WITH THE RETURN OF DANGEROUS
HEAT INDICES AGAIN TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

.WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ALREADY TRACKING
WELL ABOVE YESTERDAY MORNINGS VALUES...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
HUMID TODAY WITH SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION SHOULD
PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 DEGREES OVER SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND
PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD
GENERALLY PEAK BETWEEN AROUND NOON AND 3 PM EDT BEFORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
Quoting 120. hydrus:




That little swirl at the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula is interesting. What will become of it?
Quoting 105. rayduray2013:


The Santa Margarita River which flows through Temecula and Camp Pendleton is the second largest drainage in SoCal. Yesterday it flowed at 39 cfs in comparison with a flow of 3 cfs a couple days earlier. This is simply a trivial amount of water. You need to do more study of California's plumbing before going hmmmm. A good place to start? Marc Reisner's "Cadillac Desert" is smartly written and very informative.


Ray, Great Recommendation. 'Cadillac Desert.' I can't plus that enough.
Here I go again for the second time today with the map of the temps in the northern hemisphere.

(Note that that slab, as opposed to a blob of heat in the north of Africa is several times the size of the USA, its heat is being driven up into the south of Europe and filtering into the south of Asia, bearing in mind its only mid July, things are very interesting on our side of the Atlantic and the storms of California might be the forerunner to the likes of storms of Iran if things blow the wrong way.)

Note that there is very little other than some of the rapidly greening Greenland which is actually below freezing.



Meanwhile in my opinion, the arctic sea ice levels are about to go into free-fall.

Its no wonder that there are blogs about heavy storms over southern California in July with historic rainfalls.

Link

Quoting 40. SweetCherries:


You would
think that by now the people in southern California would figure out a
way to harness the rain water they get instead of letting it flow out to
sea. Instead we have state wide water rationing going on. Things that
make you go hummmm.....



this from an article posted by barbamz

http://la.curbed.com/archives/2015/07/los_angeles _thunderstorm.php

Not all the unseasonal wetness went directly to the sea. The LA County
Department of Public Works captured a whopping 245 million gallons of
water (enough to supply 6,000 residents for a year), though a rep for
the department did note that the storm was "nowhere near what we need to
bring us back to our normal sort of reading for this time of year."

See not everyone is doing nothing...
Quoting 125. rmbjoe1954:



That little swirl at the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula is interesting. What will become of it?

It would be cool if something could develop down there
Dinosaurs did not go extinct due to an asteroid impact only; climate change is also thought to have been a factor. From Science Daily:

Dinosaurs fell victim to perfect storm of events, study shows

Date:
July 28, 2014
Source:
University of Edinburgh
Summary:
Dinosaurs might have survived the asteroid strike that wiped them out if it had taken place slightly earlier or later in history, scientists say. They found that in the few million years before a 10km-wide asteroid struck what is now Mexico, Earth was experiencing environmental upheaval. This included extensive volcanic activity, changing sea levels and varying temperatures. At this time, the dinosaurs' food chain was weakened by a lack of diversity among the large plant-eating dinosaurs on which others preyed.


Quoting 106. ncstorm:

I believe I provided screen shots and I'm sure the general public would search the way as I did..

but if you feel the word "weather" and "Climate Change/Global Warming" are to be included together in a search when you guys have claimed so much in the past that they arent the same, then that wouldn't be bright for those science folks..

I'm finished with it..just wanted to let those know lurking why people really come to WU..remember its about informing them most importantly as that is one of the most used reasons here regarding why 30 handles have to answer one comment..

You have a GREAT day!!









As one of those "lurkers", I don't think I was ever asked why I came to this page. Was there a detailed user survey and I missed it? What/who does one need to contact in order to be part of the "real community" here, whatever that is? Is there electricity in the Wunderground clubhouse tree? I'm not interested unless there's cold drinks involved.

Quoting 110. JohnLonergan:



Maybe he should rent Chinatown, easier than reading.
Excellent idea. Maybe I should watch Chinatown again. It's better than almost anything Hollywood is cranking out today. :)
Quoting 116. tampabaymatt:


a lot of rain coming huh matt.
Quoting 103. Skyepony:

The bridge inspectors got out in CA & AR, found two more highway bridges that needed shoring up.
I just heard on the news one bridge collapsed
Quoting 125. rmbjoe1954:



That little swirl at the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula is interesting. What will become of it?
I dunno....Still fun to watch..who knows, could get a freak invest..:)
NC stay alert up there ok................................................ ..........
Quoting 58. barbamz:

Heavy rains flood roads in northern Iran
Source: Radio Zamaneh, 07/21/15
Heavy torrential rains have flooded Chaloos and Haraz roads in Tehran and Alborz Provinces so far killing 35 people. Fifty vehicles are also reportedly missing in the Asara region of the two mountainous roads. Meanwhile five villages have been trapped by floods and another six were killed in Sijan from the floods. ...

Although BBC weather video isn't up to date with the unfortunate death toll, it provides a short meteorological explanation of what happened:
Buildings collapse in Iran floods
BBC weather video, 21 July 2015 Last updated at 17:07

Good night with this. For me in central Germany it's going to be another so called "tropical night" with still nearly 27C=80F at 11pm (same temperature inside). I really hope this is the last one for a while as the cold frontal boundary of low "Yakari" is approaching our part of the continent (no respite from the heat for the more southern countries though).


There are no active storms in the Tropical Atlantic, and none of the models are predicting any real development for the next five-eight days, thus there's no need to move away from discussions regarding climate change. When the Atlantic gets active, most of those talking about climate change understand the need to focus on said active system and eagerly partake in the discussions.* This blog has been, and always will be, dedicated to all discussions and avenues about how weather and climate works.

*with the notable exceptions of the politically charged geniuses who feel the need to interject how Dr. Masters and all of us are stupid liberals while tracking a Category 4 hurricane nearing Bermuda, for example.
Quoting 119. NOLALawyer:



Now you are being pedantic. The difference between "vast majority" and "most" is an issue of semantics.
But then, my quibble wasn't with your use of the terms "vast majority" and "most", now was it? No, it was with the semantic switch to "most are interested in" after being shown the illogical nature of the previous statement, "most of us are here for". You know, most are interested in the amount of butter on their popcorn, but the vast majority go to the theater to watch the movie.

Know what I mean?

Anyway, Kudos for using the word "supercilious" right before accusing me of being pedantic. That was sheer awesomeness... :)
Quoting 139. LargoFl:



Largo if the surface Low can gets its act together. Rapid intensification can occur due to incredibly warm SSTs there. It remains to be seen what becomes of that Low. It is starting to show up on several computer model runs.
Quoting 131. schistkicker:



As one of those "lurkers", I don't think I was ever asked why I came to this page. Was there a detailed user survey and I missed it? What/who does one need to contact in order to be part of the "real community" here, whatever that is? Is there electricity in the Wunderground clubhouse tree? I'm not interested unless there's cold drinks involved.


Why would there be electricity in our clubhouse when fossil fuels are the evil to it all? Cold drinks will be served but I really don't think you would be interested though because we dont serve the koolaid currently being served around here..

I have to leave now..I've met my daily use of computer use which contributes to global warming..(a little fact for the undecided lurkers)..see I'm doing my part..wouldnt want to be HYPOCRITICAL :)

but before I go lets see what Roods blog is up to..you might want to go "light it up" in there for the comment count because its apparent why people come to WU...



Sorry blog for the highjacking..All hostages were returned safe and sound..

Dinosaurs did not go extinct due to an asteroid impact only; climate change is also thought to have been a factor.


The asteroid created the climate change!!! not the dinosaur's use of fossil fuels!! Hell- their arms were too short to even reach the ignition key on the cars back then!!

AAAUUURGGH!!!!
Quoting 96. ncstorm:

Naga, I think Google pretty much answered why people come to WU..and why the GW comments are getting flagged more and more every day..

The "real" community is tired..

When Dr. Masters or Mr. Henson blog about AGW, do you flag their posts? It seems to me that the complaining is coming from the "really thin skinned" community.

Quoting 126. Wolfberry:

In addition to the Cadillac Desert book, there's also a PBS documentary mini-series based on the book and featuring the author. Also two thumbs up in my view. :)
146. vis0

Quoting 98. Naga5000:

NC, did you know if you search for "global warming weather" WU shows up on the first page? Have you stopped to think that the term weather may have something to do with the indexing of "Weather Underground"since it does share a term with the title of the web page. This is one of the sillier arguments I've seen in awhile. I urge you to read how searches work, the link I posted in 93. Thanks and have a good day.
zilly reply @here cmmnt#5
Quoting 131. schistkicker:



As one of those "lurkers", I don't think I was ever asked why I came to this page. Was there a detailed user survey and I missed it? What/who does one need to contact in order to be part of the "real community" here, whatever that is? Is there electricity in the Wunderground clubhouse tree? I'm not interested unless there's cold drinks involved.
I heard that they gave away free cookies too and I still haven't received mines! I'm throwing in the towel!
Quoting 143. aquak9:

Dinosaurs did not go extinct due to an asteroid impact only; climate change is also thought to have been a factor.


The asteroid created the climate change!!! not the dinosaur's use of fossil fuels!! Hell- their arms were too short to even reach the ignition key on the cars back then!!

AAAUUURGGH!!!!
Well, I see we have a member of the non-control group promoting false information... again. Sigh Will you ever get it straight? Over and over you and others put out this misinformation because all you non-controls want to do is disrupt the flow of thought here!

As a member of the control group, I am here to ask, "Have you forgotten the slime in the abyss?" It was not the asteroid, it was slime that killed the dinosaurs. Slime and its beget! Next thing I know you'll be blaming the Buffalo disappearance on the Indians. HArummmph
Quoting 146. vis0:


zilly reply @here cmmnt#5



Just for you, Ernie
Quoting 131. schistkicker:



As one of those "lurkers", I don't think I was ever asked why I came to this page. Was there a detailed user survey and I missed it? What/who does one need to contact in order to be part of the "real community" here, whatever that is? Is there electricity in the Wunderground clubhouse tree? I'm not interested unless there's cold drinks involved.


There was a survey not too long ago... I guess you missed it. I filled it out. When you logged in a banner came up across the top of the web page.
It was not the asteroid, it was slime that killed the dinosaurs.

But the slime came from the asteroid.

Very last post for today:
World mayors at Vatican: Climate change is real, man-made and must be contained
Associated Press, July 21, 2015 | 5:20 p.m. EDT
VATICAN CITY (AP) - Mayors from around the world declared Tuesday that climate change is real, man-made and must be stopped as a matter of moral imperative, gathering at the Vatican to announce new measures to fight global warming and bask in Pope Francis' ecological star power.
The Vatican invited the 60 mayors to a two-day conference to keep up pressure on world leaders ahead of U.N. climate negotiations in Paris later this year. The meeting also aimed to promote Francis' environment encyclical, which denounced what he calls a fossil fuel-based world economy that exploits the poor and destroys the Earth.
One by one, the mayors lined up to sign a final declaration stating that "human-induced climate change is a scientific reality and its effective control is a moral imperative for humanity." ...



Quoting 151. aquak9:

It was not the asteroid, it was slime that killed the dinosaurs.

But the slime came from the asteroid.


Oh. light bulb Maybe that's what Loren Eiseley meant. There's always more than two sides to a coin, in other words. Thank you for pointing that out.
Quoting 113. Skyepony:

Legislation in CA was introduced today to hold harmless firefighters if they happen to damaged a drone. That footage we saw last week of cars burning in the highway in Southern California...they suspended retardant drops because drones were flying in the area for fear of damaging their aircraft & say they will continue to do so til something with the drones interfering changes..


Good info.

Florida firefighters are already held harmless for any damage they may do to fight a fire or save a life. This includes ramming through gated communities gates who decide that they don't want to give firefighters the code to get in... Surprised that California doesn't have this or maybe they are scared it doesn't cover the drones.

I figure the first few drones that get destroyed by fire retardant, it will stop that nonsense.
I don't feel tardy?

I wish I knew the real wu community, is there a number or e-mail addy ?

tia'






Thanks for your presentation, Dr. Masters, of the hurricane off Newport Beach, CA, Sept. 1939.  My Dad had recalled in not such precise detail as did your featured video and told me about that, as he had been a 17-yeard old from Huntington Park then.  He and his buddies frequented the beach in Orange County, and recalled it as being far less-improved than it has become in the successive decades--- even swampy in places and not well-served by good roads.  Lots of bugs were present.  He was aware of land values even then and said beach land was cheap and unimproved.  A lot would be, nevertheless, unaffordable for most--- probably $2,000 or $3,000 per lot.  Can you imagine? Now, if you could even find a vacant beachfront lot, it would run in the multi-millions.  They just don't exist anymore. He acknowledged the intense heat-wave of the prior week as he had just entered his senior year of high school.  The only hurricane-affected weather I have experienced in So. Cal. was also referenced in your blog, as the August 1977 2-day tropical storm that saturated the whole southland in blowing, warm "pins-and-needles" rain, while the thermometer sat right at 82 degrees, day and night, with gusty 50-60 mph. winds. As you know, that is not your typical California event.
Off-topic, but I was able to meet with Wunderblogger Patrap for the first time in New Orleans Sunday; nice enough to pay for my taxi and lunch, too! :P

In addition, I also gave a speech on hurricanes at the anime convention (MechaCon) they had going on there. If anyone was wondering, that's what I was there for. I was kinda surprised the panelists accepted it at all. You know, being all science-y and stuff in an otherwise non-related convention. Made a meteorologist friend while doing it, too!
I don't feel tardy?

-David Lee Roth, 1979

Bless his heart.
Patrap is that a pouch worth watching off the Yucatan?
I'll take a look and post the synopsis. Wait one.
No pouch is shown near the yucatan so no werds there from Monterey.

From the 2pm NHC Disco,


DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE A MAJORITY
OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THIS RELATIVELY STABLE FLOW...AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK TROUGHING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE NE GULF STEMMING FROM A WEAK STREAM OF 500 MB
RELATIVE VORTICITY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION SW TO OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W. THIS MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 83W-90W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG 25N TO 90W THEN
TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN. GENTLE TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE BREEZE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.



Typhoon Halola:





Currently at 75kts and predicted to peak at 90kts (click the enlarge)
:



Although wouldn't be surprised if it became a major with low shear and warm waters. Not to mention an ADT estimate of 90 knots currently:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 JUL 2015 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 22:51:34 N Lon : 140:45:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 966.3mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.6 4.6

Link

Quoting 155. Patrap:

I don't feel tardy?

I wish I knew the real wu community, is there a number or e-mail addy ?

tia'









Yeah sure, the number is 1-800-Jaws-MEME

Be sure to dial option #2 and hear an automated Jon Stewart give out the directions to the tree house..We will also be handing out an autograph picture of a special SNL cast member..Pets are allowed..just be sure to bring a pooper scooper because you know its all about the environment..

Okay I really got to go now..its actually been fun..later "community"..

weeeeeeeee'......


Quoting 131. schistkicker:



As one of those "lurkers", I don't think I was ever asked why I came to this page. Was there a detailed user survey and I missed it? What/who does one need to contact in order to be part of the "real community" here, whatever that is? Is there electricity in the Wunderground clubhouse tree? I'm not interested unless there's cold drinks involved.
Hope so..itsa 100,000 degree's outside...and what if there is no electric.? The stores are out of ice.?..mayhem....Mayhem will ensue...and me and sue dont get along....unless there are colds drinks...its a cycle
Quoting 139. LargoFl:




Excerpt from the Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC CHANGES OCCUR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WEAKENING OVER FLORIDA AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SATURDAY...THEN STALL NORTH OF I-4 SUNDAY. BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS SUGGEST H8-5 LOPRES DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVER THE WEEK...LINGERING INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE POOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. STILL FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...BEST RAIN CHANCES IN A WHILE ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
Quoting 141. WeatherConvoy:


Largo if the surface Low can gets its act together. Rapid intensification can occur due to incredibly warm SSTs there. It remains to be seen what becomes of that Low. It is starting to show up on several computer model runs.


upper level winds are even important


Republicans Are Upset That Martin O'Malley Cited Actual Science On Climate Change And Conflict
The candidate links climate change to Syrian conflict. Republicans deem it "absurd."


WASHINGTON -- Republicans are outraged that Democratic presidential contender Martin O'Malley cited actual scientific research in comments about how climate change has contributed to internal conflicts in Syria.

In an interview with Bloomberg on Monday, O'Malley discussed the national security implications of climate change. "One of the things that preceded the failure of the nation state of Syria and the rise of ISIS, was the effect of climate change and the mega-drought that affected that nation, wiped out farmers, drove people to cities, created a humanitarian crisis that created the symptoms -- or rather, the conditions -- of extreme poverty that has now led to the rise of ISIS and this extreme violence," he said.

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus called O'Malley's comments "absurd."

"Whether it's the weak Obama-Clinton nuclear deal that paves the way for Iran to obtain an atomic bomb or Martin O'Malley's absurd claim that climate change is responsible for ISIS, it’s abundantly clear no one in the Democratic Party has the foreign policy vision to keep America safe," he said in a statement, via Fox News.

And conservative media outlets are apparently really mad that reporters, including me, haven't covered O'Malley's comments. But here I am, covering them.

The thing is, O'Malley's comments reflect actual scientific findings published earlier this year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The paper, from researchers at Columbia University, found that an extended, severe drought in Syria -- a drought whose severity was made two to three times more likely due to climate change as it would have been otherwise -- worsened existing water security and agricultural woes and forced approximately 1.5 million more people into urban areas. This helped create internal conflict and the conditions that facilitated the growth of extremist like the Islamic State, or ISIS.

The report doesn’t say the drought caused the war, one of the lead authors told The Huffington Post when it was released, but does outline how it worsened conditions for people in the country.

"We’re saying that added to all the other stressors, it helped kick things over the threshold into open conflict," said Richard Seager, a climate scientist at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and a co-author of the paper.

Which is almost exactly the point O'Malley made in the Bloomberg interview.

The O'Malley campaign responded to critics on Tuesday.

"If Republicans want to have a debate about either foreign policy or science, we have a message for them: bring it on. On both topics they are trapped in the past," said O’Malley for President Deputy Campaign Manager Lis Smith in a statement. "Martin O'Malley isn't running to repeat the mistakes of the past -- he's offering bold, new, and progressive leadership. And unlike the Republican Party, he is proud to believe in science."

Quoting 154. Dakster:



Good info.

Florida firefighters are already held harmless for any damage they may do to fight a fire or save a life. This includes ramming through gated communities gates who decide that they don't want to give firefighters the code to get in... Surprised that California doesn't have this or maybe they are scared it doesn't cover the drones.

I figure the first few drones that get destroyed by fire retardant, it will stop that nonsense.

What on earth are the drones doing there in the first place?
The fire-fighters should be immediately issued with anti drone mini surface to air missiles to swat them out of the skies. In fact shotguns would probably suffice for the low flying drones.
It seems crazy that people are allowed to purchase and then operate drones anywhere near national emergencies like wild-fires.
Are the drone operators not required to have training and licences?
Are the drones not required to have identifications on them so as their operators can be swiftly brought to justice?

Then again it will probably take some major accident or terrorist action for the authorities to waken up to the drone dangers.
Before you know it crazy people will be using drones to start wild-fires, that's if the are not already doing this.
Sooner probably than later.
Latest thoughts on possible development this in the next week near Florida?
Quoting 165. hydrus:

Hope so..itsa 100,000 degree's outside...and what if there is no electric.? The stores are out of ice.?..mayhem....Mayhem will ensue...and me and sue dont get along....unless there are colds drinks...its a cycle
Hi Hydrus, you must have a really well insulated house to withstand those temps. I really enjoy all these people complaining about the hot weather, after all we are entering the peak heat period for the summer season. If this was the middle of November, than it would be another story. Lets enjoy it while it last, I really hate cold weather, except when on vacation in the far North for a little winter fun.
Yeah, we should regulate Drone Flyers jus like we do Bankers...and CEO's.


The FAA has specific rules published but are behind the learning curve of the technology.

Plus, you have 10% of Humans who just wont ever "get it".



Quoting 171. Hurricanes101:

Latest thoughts on possible development this in the next week near Florida?


I think... that this hurricane season sucks.

That'd make 4 storms and no hurricanes, all forming in the subtropics north of 20N. It's what we all expected, but still.
Quoting 174. KoritheMan:



I think... that this hurricane season sucks.

That'd make 4 storms and no hurricanes, all forming in the subtropics north of 20N. It's what we all expected, but still.


Boring mid latitude storms... :/
Quoting 159. Dakster:

Patrap is that a pouch worth watching off the Yucatan?


Weak troughs have been developing each day near the Yucatan and drifting West and dissipating

in the SW GOMEX.
This looks like an accident waiting to happen.
I wonder how long the luck is going to hold out?
Looking at all that heat around the place its amazing how few storms have been forming this year.
"Sheer Luck" I suppose!

179. beell
Quoting 143. aquak9:

Dinosaurs did not go extinct due to an asteroid impact only; climate change is also thought to have been a factor.


The asteroid created the climate change!!! not the dinosaur's use of fossil fuels!! Hell- their arms were too short to even reach the ignition key on the cars back then!!

AAAUUURGGH!!!!




qwantz.com/Dinosaur Comics
oh great- deniers with drones-
Quoting 178. PlazaRed:

This looks like an accident waiting to happen.
I wonder how long the luck is going to hold out?
Looking at all that heat around the place its amazing how few storms have been forming this year.
"Sheer Luck" I suppose!




It's not surprising at all. Heat is one of many factors.
Quoting 176. CaribBoy:



Boring mid latitude storms... :/
I believe a tropical storm will pass over or near your area sometime this season.
Quoting 182. Climate175:

I believe a tropical storm will pass over or near your area sometime this season.


Now we're delving into the non-empirical. That's when you know we're in for a boring season. :P :P :P
184. beell
Quoting 169. Patrap:



Republicans Are Upset That Martin O'Malley Cited Actual Science On Climate Change And Conflict
The candidate links climate change to Syrian conflict. Republicans deem it "absurd."


WASHINGTON -- Republicans are outraged that Democratic presidential contender Martin O'Malley cited actual scientific research in comments about how climate change has contributed to internal conflicts in Syria.

In an interview with Bloomberg on Monday, O'Malley discussed the national security implications of climate change. "One of the things that preceded the failure of the nation state of Syria and the rise of ISIS, was the effect of climate change and the mega-drought that affected that nation, wiped out farmers, drove people to cities, created a humanitarian crisis that created the symptoms -- or rather, the conditions -- of extreme poverty that has now led to the rise of ISIS and this extreme violence," he said.

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus called O'Malley's comments "absurd."

"Whether it's the weak Obama-Clinton nuclear deal that paves the way for Iran to obtain an atomic bomb or Martin O'Malley's absurd claim that climate change is responsible for ISIS, it’s abundantly clear no one in the Democratic Party has the foreign policy vision to keep America safe," he said in a statement, via Fox News.

And conservative media outlets are apparently really mad that reporters, including me, haven't covered O'Malley's comments. But here I am, covering them.

The thing is, O'Malley's comments reflect actual scientific findings published earlier this year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The paper, from researchers at Columbia University, found that an extended, severe drought in Syria -- a drought whose severity was made two to three times more likely due to climate change as it would have been otherwise -- worsened existing water security and agricultural woes and forced approximately 1.5 million more people into urban areas. This helped create internal conflict and the conditions that facilitated the growth of extremist like the Islamic State, or ISIS.

The report doesn’t say the drought caused the war, one of the lead authors told The Huffington Post when it was released, but does outline how it worsened conditions for people in the country.

"We’re saying that added to all the other stressors, it helped kick things over the threshold into open conflict," said Richard Seager, a climate scientist at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and a co-author of the paper.

Which is almost exactly the point O'Malley made in the Bloomberg interview.

The O'Malley campaign responded to critics on Tuesday.

"If Republicans want to have a debate about either foreign policy or science, we have a message for them: bring it on. On both topics they are trapped in the past," said O’Malley for President Deputy Campaign Manager Lis Smith in a statement. "Martin O'Malley isn't running to repeat the mistakes of the past -- he's offering bold, new, and progressive leadership. And unlike the Republican Party, he is proud to believe in science."




It's just a miracle that this did not happen in Texas during our drought. Who knows how close we came to chaos?
Quoting 154. Dakster:



Good info.

Florida firefighters are already held harmless for any damage they may do to fight a fire or save a life. This includes ramming through gated communities gates who decide that they don't want to give firefighters the code to get in... Surprised that California doesn't have this or maybe they are scared it doesn't cover the drones.

I figure the first few drones that get destroyed by fire retardant, it will stop that nonsense.
I don't think the problem was fear of damaging the drones with fire retardant. Typically the aircraft that drop it have to fly low over the fire, and low means at the same altitude as the drones can fly. Collision with a drone would dump more than fire retardant on the fire. And I suspect there were not firefighters on the ground where the drones were being controlled who could have shot them down with shotguns or hoses -- and imagine the reaction of a drone owner who had just had his $1000 toy destroyed by a fireman. Not a pretty picture. The drone culture is probably already out of hand.
Quoting 169. Patrap:



Republicans Are Upset That Martin O'Malley Cited Actual Science On Climate Change And Conflict
The candidate links climate change to Syrian conflict. Republicans deem it "absurd."


WASHINGTON -- Republicans are outraged that Democratic presidential contender Martin O'Malley cited actual scientific research in comments about how climate change has contributed to internal conflicts in Syria.

In an interview with Bloomberg on Monday, O'Malley discussed the national security implications of climate change. "One of the things that preceded the failure of the nation state of Syria and the rise of ISIS, was the effect of climate change and the mega-drought that affected that nation, wiped out farmers, drove people to cities, created a humanitarian crisis that created the symptoms -- or rather, the conditions -- of extreme poverty that has now led to the rise of ISIS and this extreme violence," he said.

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus called O'Malley's comments "absurd."

"Whether it's the weak Obama-Clinton nuclear deal that paves the way for Iran to obtain an atomic bomb or Martin O'Malley's absurd claim that climate change is responsible for ISIS, it’s abundantly clear no one in the Democratic Party has the foreign policy vision to keep America safe," he said in a statement, via Fox News.

And conservative media outlets are apparently really mad that reporters, including me, haven't covered O'Malley's comments. But here I am, covering them.

The thing is, O'Malley's comments reflect actual scientific findings published earlier this year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The paper, from researchers at Columbia University, found that an extended, severe drought in Syria -- a drought whose severity was made two to three times more likely due to climate change as it would have been otherwise -- worsened existing water security and agricultural woes and forced approximately 1.5 million more people into urban areas. This helped create internal conflict and the conditions that facilitated the growth of extremist like the Islamic State, or ISIS.

The report doesn’t say the drought caused the war, one of the lead authors told The Huffington Post when it was released, but does outline how it worsened conditions for people in the country.

"We’re saying that added to all the other stressors, it helped kick things over the threshold into open conflict," said Richard Seager, a climate scientist at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and a co-author of the paper.

Which is almost exactly the point O'Malley made in the Bloomberg interview.

The O'Malley campaign responded to critics on Tuesday.

"If Republicans want to have a debate about either foreign policy or science, we have a message for them: bring it on. On both topics they are trapped in the past," said O’Malley for President Deputy Campaign Manager Lis Smith in a statement. "Martin O'Malley isn't running to repeat the mistakes of the past -- he's offering bold, new, and progressive leadership. And unlike the Republican Party, he is proud to believe in science."



The drought was a minor contribution to the rise of ISIS. The main cause was the power vacuum created by the exit of US forces in Iraq and the lack of early support for the Syrian anti-regime forces which caused a stalemate allowing ISIS a home base in Syria and Iraq.
Quoting 182. Climate175:

I believe a tropical storm will pass over or near your area sometime this season.


That would make me VERY happy!
Quoting 170. PlazaRed:


What on earth are the drones doing there in the first place?
The fire-fighters should be immediately issued with anti drone mini surface to air missiles to swat them out of the skies. In fact shotguns would probably suffice for the low flying drones.
It seems crazy that people are allowed to purchase and then operate drones anywhere near national emergencies like wild-fires.
Are the drone operators not required to have training and licences?
Are the drones not required to have identifications on them so as their operators can be swiftly brought to justice?

Then again it will probably take some major accident or terrorist action for the authorities to waken up to the drone dangers.
Before you know it crazy people will be using drones to start wild-fires, that's if the are not already doing this.
Sooner probably than later.


Drone are currently not required to have any ID info on them. No 'N' numbers so to speak. Maybe we need to create 'D' numbers for them? Require them to have transponders on them as well. BUT the FAA is currently drafting legislation for drone use.

I agree with everything you said. FAA can and does restrict airspace in emergencies, but how do you get that info to the civilian drone operator.

To emphasize:

Training and a common sense test should be given before you can operate a drone legally.

Just wait until the independent news crews are able to operator drones, they will be fighting for airspace above incidents in progress... They are annoying enough with their cameras and try to push there way in closer onto your scene. I just figured out a new use for my ASP expandable baton...

I don't advise a shotgun when there are people fleeing from burning cars on the ground. The pellets have to land somewhere. But I like the thought. If you are in my space preventing me from doing my job... I should be able to get your drone out of the way...
Quoting 183. KoritheMan:



Now we're delving into the non-empirical. That's when you know we're in for a boring season. :P :P :P
I still have faith in the season, the reason I said that before is because history shows over the past few seasons that tropical storms tend to go near the Lesser Antilles as we near the peak of the season. The models are already showing signs of potential development off the SE coast and in the Gulf. The conditions in the Atlantic are not favorable at this time, but I won't totally discount the Atlantic out this early.
" Although wind damage is an obvious concern, the region already experiences howling gales as a result of Santa Ana and gap-wind events, where gusts can top 60 mph. "

Yep, 60 MPH is routine. We've approached 100 MPH. The homes in our neighborhood at the base of Trabuco Canyon are reinforced with steel girders.
Quoting 184. beell:



It's just a miracle that this did not happen in Texas during our drought. Who knows how close we came to chaos?


Don't ya'll have your hands full defending Walmarts from the US Military?
Some local mets are calling for as much as 8" of rain thru this weekend across C FL with the possibility of a tropical system organizing.

Orlando
I'm still "droning on," about this thing with the drones.
I saw a TV news programme here a few days ago where people are having to go on courses to operate drones.
They had real airline pilots talking about them as well, apparently there have been several incidents where drones have been flying over civil airports! Can you imagine it, with the flight controllers trying to chat to some goon on a mobile phone about his drone being in civil aviation airspace?
The Europeans will sort it out very soon with licences like they did with guns and cars etc. but insurance must be a legal requirement along with numerical markings, chips etc. ASAP.
Then again I suppose somebody is making a lot of money out of selling these things.
Quoting 184. beell:



It's just a miracle that this did not happen in Texas during our drought. Who knows how close we came to chaos?
I agree. It was bad around here.
Quoting 167. GeoffreyWPB:

Excerpt from the Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC CHANGES OCCUR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS MODELS AGREE ON
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WEAKENING OVER FLORIDA AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SATURDAY...THEN STALL NORTH OF I-4 SUNDAY. BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS SUGGEST H8-5 LOPRES DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVER THE WEEK...LINGERING INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE POOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. STILL FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...BEST RAIN CHANCES IN A WHILE ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


Euro dumps up to 10" of rain across C FL thru Sunday. Looking like a impressive rain event on the way for FL. Already been wet here with 10.06" so far for July here near Apopka/Longwood.
Quoting 192. nrtiwlnvragn:



Don't ya'll have your hands full defending Walmarts from the US Military?

Yes. Glad jade helm didnt happen during drought.
Quoting 132. rayduray2013:


Excellent idea. Maybe I should watch Chinatown again. It's better than almost anything Hollywood is cranking out today. :)



A good fictional read is the Water Knife.
Quoting 201. StormTrackerScott:



Largo I think some might be eating crow when we have a invest declared near FL come late this weekend/early next week.


Scott, how much rain is the Euro showing for Tampa?
203. flsky
In the condo complex where I live (it's pretty large) drones have been banned.

Quoting 195. PlazaRed:

I'm still "droning on," about this thing with the drones.
I saw a TV news programme here a few days ago where people are having to go on courses to operate drones.
They had real airline pilots talking about them as well, apparently there have been several incidents where drones have been flying over civil airports! Can you imagine it, with the flight controllers trying to chat to some goon on a mobile phone about his drone being in civil aviation airspace?
The Europeans will sort it out very soon with licences like they did with guns and cars etc. but insurance must be a legal requirement along with numerical markings, chips etc. ASAP.
Then again I suppose somebody is making a lot of money out of selling these things.
Quoting 204. Hurricanes101:



and do you have a link for a Euro that shows rainfall accumulations?


Here you go.

12Z Euro
Quoting 198. StormTrackerScott:



Euro dumps up to 10" of rain across C FL thru Sunday. Looking like a impressive rain event on the way for FL. Already been wet here with 10.06" so far for July here near Apopka/Longwood.



Yeah I think this event is going to be even more of a drencher than the last trough event based on model trends. Why? Not only do models show this troughing event being even stronger and hanging around longer, but this time around, models show upper support being involved, which means heavy rainfall accumulation will be able to spread further inland.

Basically the reason the last event was so limited to the coast was due to the event being just purely a lot of tropical moisture and very weak troughing. All the rain kept inland areas cool, bit with very weak troughing at the surface and no upper support, convection wouldn't make it far inland, and in many cases, would die before reaching the coast.

A stalling cold front combined with extremely high precipitable water content well above average even for late July will combine with some upper support to lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms with very heavy totals possible near the west coast but also spreading inland when pieces of upper energy push through the area, leading stronger and more organized thunderstorm complexes.


And if a tropical system develops in the east gulf next week? Well it's too early to tell, rule number one in forecasting tropical systems is we need the disturbance to exist first before having much confidence. However, it's at least something to watch, it is within reason something could develop in the east gulf.
Quoting 210. LargoFl:

models sure do hint at something in the gulf next week for sure scott


Upper level winds will be favorable too. Something could go fast west of Tampa Late weekend into early next week.
Quoting 194. StormTrackerScott:

Some local mets are calling for as much as 8" of rain thru this weekend across C FL with the possibility of a tropical system organizing.

Orlando

wow looks like another deluge like last Friday gee
From the Tampa Bay Ruskin NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
THROUGH FRI - AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
CONUS RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BUILDS INTO CANADA AS
AN UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC TROUGHS DOWN THE EASTERN SEA BOARD TO FL.
AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH RESIDES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. TO ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
FROM THE OPEN ATLANTIC THROUGH SOUTHERN FL TO THE GULF.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK - A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS OR LOWS TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN/ U.S.
BORDER...FLATTENING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE AND ELONGATING IT
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND MAINTAINING THE QUEBEC LOW WITH
IT/S TROUGH DOWN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD. THE SURFACE TOUGH SAGS IN ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL FL WITH
THE RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE STATE. BUT BY TUE...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES AWAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL AND THE
RIDGE SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN FL.

THE CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WILL BE BASED ON PREVAILING SOUTHWEST
AND WEST FLOW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
INITIALLY. AS THE TROUGH SETTLES IN THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WITH OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP THE HIGHS NEAR
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN LOWS JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
Quoting 215. GeoffreyWPB:


Not surprising at all. Maybe tomorrow.
I guess we wait till maybe Friday morning to see IF this Low pressure actually developes and lies off Florida's gulf coast,if it developes any stronger, might catch a lot of folks unprepared,we'll see what happens, but models are sure hinting at something developing,especially Euro
ECMWF dropped its support for the Gulf system; that was literally the ONLY support, other than a weak closed low on the GFS.

NHC is right not to mention it, knowing the models could easily flip back.
Quoting 219. KoritheMan:

ECMWF dropped its support for the Gulf system; that was literally the ONLY support, other than a weak closed low on the GFS.

NHC is right not to mention it, knowing the models could easily flip back.


Neat little TC by 240 hours though south of Bermuda. Moving retrograde.
Quoting 189. Dakster:



(snip)
Just wait until the independent news crews are able to operator drones, they will be fighting for airspace above incidents in progress... They are annoying enough with their cameras and try to push there way in closer onto your scene.
I would bet that the drone(s) that caused the problem were news organization aircraft filming the vehicle fires for "News at 6". They're being used quite a bit for "news gathering" and have already caused conflicts with safety agencies in other areas. As I said, I think it's out of control already and may have to be totally shut down so regulations and enforcement can be put in place before there is a real incident.
Quoting 219. KoritheMan:

ECMWF dropped its support for the Gulf system; that was literally the ONLY support, other than a weak closed low on the GFS.

NHC is right not to mention it, knowing the models could easily flip back.
indeed, which is why I myself want to wait til Friday to see whats going on in the gulf, plenty of time yet to watch. regardless of anything forming, a lot of rain mets say is coming for central florida this weekend..just hope its not going to be like Last Fridays deluge gee
Quoting 220. CybrTeddy:



Neat little TC by 240 hours though south of Bermuda. Moving retrograde.


I noticed that, Yankee clipper?
224. beell
Quoting 206. nrtiwlnvragn:



Something about glass houses and rocks?


No. More along the lines of 200,000 people dead, and millions displaced. It may be bad here in Texas, but it ain't that bad. We do enjoy the right to be a little cranky when it gets hot and dry.
Quoting 220. CybrTeddy:



Neat little TC by 240 hours though south of Bermuda. Moving retrograde.


Wait, so 10 days, right?

mmmmm
Quoting 219. KoritheMan:

ECMWF dropped its support for the Gulf system; that was literally the ONLY support, other than a weak closed low on the GFS.

NHC is right not to mention it, knowing the models could easily flip back.


Yeah it would be weird if the NHC mentioned it, sure something could develop, but there is so much that needs to evolve before anything has a hope at developing in the gulf. If we have a large thunderstorm complex that begins to persist west of Tampa beneath light shear along with model support, then I'll have good reason to believe a tropical system will develop there. Until then, it's just something to watch, and consider for possibility.
Quoting 225. KoritheMan:



Wait, so days 10, right?

mmmmm


But it's the ECMWF!

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Quoting 226. Jedkins01:



Yeah it would be weird if the NHC mentioned it, sure something could develop, but there is so much that needs to evolve before anything has a hope at developing in the gulf. If we have a large thunderstorm complex that begins to persist west of Tampa beneath light shear along with model support, then I'll have good reason to believe a tropical system will develop there. Until then, it's just something to watch, and consider for possibility.


I think there's probably a decent chance of a disturbance developing somewhere in the western Atlantic; in either direction it gets stuck by the ridge.

Beyond that I really can't say much else. It takes a ton of patience to watch these things, and sometimes they don't happen at all. See also: tornado busts on otherwise favorable days.
Quoting 222. LargoFl:

indeed, which is why I myself want to wait til Friday to see whats going on in the gulf, plenty of time yet to watch. regardless of anything forming, a lot of rain mets say is coming for central florida this weekend..just hope its not going to be like Last Fridays deluge gee


Yeah Largo I got 4.01 last Friday, my guess based on radar estimates is that you had 5 or 6 inches since you live a bit further west of me. The pattern late week into the weekend has the potential to be just as wet if not a bit wetter, and likely better inland penetration of the heavy rain totals.
Quoting 227. CybrTeddy:



But it's the ECMWF!

¯\_(ツ)_/¯


ECMWF DOES have fewer false alarms, to be fair.
Quoting 225. KoritheMan:



Wait, so days 10, right?

mmmmm


240 hours/24 hours per day = 10 days.

So yes, Kori. Math getting to you? (check your gmail btw)
Quoting 231. Astrometeor:



240 hours/24 hours per day = 10 days.

So yes, Kori. Math getting to you? (check your gmail btw)


For whatever reason, saying 240 hours sounds shorter than 10 days.
Quoting 228. KoritheMan:



I think there's probably a decent chance of a disturbance developing somewhere in the western Atlantic; in either direction it gets stuck by the ridge.

Beyond that I really can't say much else. It takes a ton of patience to watch these things, and sometimes they don't happen at all. See also: tornado busts on otherwise favorable days.


Indeed, which is why I'm not getting hyped about anything tropical, as much as I'd love to chase a TC in the 60-75 mph range out on the beaches here. Oh well, at least we have another weekend tropical rain banding event expected here like last week, it brings a lot of heavy rain and gusty winds that reminds of a a landfalling tropical system. I can at least pretend and dream when we get such weather events, lol.
Quoting 234. Jedkins01:



Indeed, which is why I'm not getting hyped about anything tropical, as much as I'd love to chase a TC in the 60-75 mph range out on the beaches here. Oh well, at least we have another weekend tropical rain banding event expected here like last week, it brings a lot of heavy rain and gusty winds that reminds of a a landfalling tropical system. I can at least pretend and dream when we get such weather events, lol.


60-75 mph? Up your game! I'm going for a Category 2! :P
Quoting 236. KoritheMan:



60-75 mph? Up your game! I'm going for a Category 2! :P


60 is slight, that's like the minimum threshold for a severe thunderstorm.
Quoting 237. Astrometeor:



60 is slight, that's like the minimum threshold for a severe thunderstorm.


a severe thunderstorm lasts a few minutes, a tropical system with 60 mph is different
Quoting 238. Hurricanes101:



a severe thunderstorm lasts a few minutes, a tropical system with 60 mph is different


Lucky I didn't bring the EF scale into this. Everyone knows tornadoes are superior to hurricanes. :P ;)

(this is completely objective, no subjectivity involved)
Quoting 237. Astrometeor:



60 is slight, that's like the minimum threshold for a severe thunderstorm.


All the cool kids don't like it that small.

Pun not intended.
Wait a second Scott, your saying 10 inches of rain being dumped on central Florida. By the map of the rain accumulation that you posted, I only see maybe 2 inches or so here on the space coast.
Quoting 208. StormTrackerScott:



Here you go.

12Z Euro

One has to factor in the "Hurricane Mode" value.

: P
Quoting 242. hurricanewatcher61:

Wait a second Scott, your saying 10 inches of rain being dumped on central Florida. By the map of the rain accumulation that you posted, I only see maybe 2 inches or so here on the space coast.


Divide whatever Scott posts by five and you get an accurate depiction of rainfall totals. :)

(just messing with you Scott, btw)
Quoting 195. PlazaRed:

I'm still "droning on," about this thing with the drones.
I saw a TV news programme here a few days ago where people are having to go on courses to operate drones.
They had real airline pilots talking about them as well, apparently there have been several incidents where drones have been flying over civil airports! Can you imagine it, with the flight controllers trying to chat to some goon on a mobile phone about his drone being in civil aviation airspace?
The Europeans will sort it out very soon with licences like they did with guns and cars etc. but insurance must be a legal requirement along with numerical markings, chips etc. ASAP.
Then again I suppose somebody is making a lot of money out of selling these things.




Maybe we should handle this through legal channels. Remember you don't have to have insurance to be sued!
Find these pilots or their organizations and recover damages.
Hey guys I'm back :)

Found this article on Time about computer use and Global Warming..I wanted to pose a question to the GW group..some of yall be on here more than 4 hours a day, some on here all day and through the night....how can a "denier" like me as some love to call people on this blog believe that GW is indeed a threat when your carbon footprint is supposedly impacting C02 levels through your personal computer use which is why we have rising temperatures..

Its a serious question for the handles as you said you want to help those of us to understand the severity of Earth's plight..If you want to lead by example shouldn't this be one of the first one to abide by by cutting your carbon footprint?

and this is one of those reasons why I cant get on the "threat" of our civilizations ending as someone wanted to know why I'm against it, I mean how can I take the threat seriously when those who are on here 24/7 copying and pasting articles are helping increase global high temperatures through computer use..every little bit helps right?

oh..and we don't serve alcohol laced cookies so I doubt you would be interested..



Good one! Even though some people don't always agree with him, I still enjoy reading his postings, along with everyone else's. Learning quite a bit from everyone here.
Quoting 244. CybrTeddy:



Divide whatever Scott posts by five and you get an accurate depiction of rainfall totals. :)

(just messing with you Scott, btw)
Quoting 242. hurricanewatcher61:

Wait a second Scott, your saying 10 inches of rain being dumped on central Florida. By the map of the rain accumulation that you posted, I only see maybe 2 inches or so here on the space coast.


the West Coast of Florida counts as Central Florida too :P
DSR..I'm mad..I'm mad at how we have all these social problems in our world..hunger, disease, homelessness, war, prejudice, poverty, how big interests are underpaying employees and shipping US jobs over seas..yeah I'm mad..I also want to see why you guys are mad about GW so that you go to war on this blog :)

but you didnt answer my question..how can I be convinced that GW is a threat when the simpliest of cutting back on computer use is not even followed here by the GW crowd..I think thats a legit and FAIR question especially if GW folks are here to educate us "deniers".
Quoting 251. ncstorm:

DSR..I'm mad..I'm mad at how we have all these social problems in our world..hunger, disease, homelessness, war, prejudice, poverty, how big interests are underpaying employees and shipping US jobs over seas..yeah I'm mad..I also want to see why you guys are mad about GW so that you go to war on this blog :)

but you didnt answer my question..how can I be convinced that GW is a threat when the simpliest of cutting back on computer use is not even followed here by the GW crowd..I think thats a legit and FAIR question especially if GW folks are here to educate us "deniers".


Strawman argument. How do you know how our houses are powered. The fact is you don't. You assume, and you use it to build some fake argument. It's really insulting and dishonest, and childish.
Quoting 251. ncstorm:

..how can I be convinced that GW is a threat when the simpliest of cutting back on computer use is not even followed here by the GW crowd..I think thats a legit and FAIR question especially if GW folks are here to educate us "deniers".
AGW is real, whether people use their computers or not.

Do you guys have a siren or something that alerts you when someone mentions GW? You're on here within like 5 seconds when the topic is even broached. Lol
Quoting 252. Naga5000:



Strawman argument. How do you know how our houses are powered. The fact is you don't. You assume, and you use it to build some fake argument. It's really insulting and dishonest, and childish.


How is your house powered? Enlighten us.
Quoting 254. tampabaymatt:

Do you guys have a siren or something that alerts you when someone mentions GW? You're on here within like 5 seconds when the topic is even broached. Lol


It's like a bat signal, but it's in the shape of Al Gore.

But seriously, I keep WU open in a window while I'm reading or writing or doing research as a break.
Quoting 255. tampabaymatt:



How is your house powered? Enlighten us.


Mostly natural gas from the city utility power plant, solar provides some. I have, however, spent a small fortune upgrading the 1950's house with new insulation, new windows, energy efficient appliances (and the smaller things, like LED light bulbs, etc.). I do what I can, but money is always the issue on the big projects.

Edit: New cars last year as well, but we don't drive much, between my wife and I, we put 8,000 miles on the cars last year. It helps that we just jump on the highway to get to work and back.
Quoting 254. tampabaymatt:

Do you guys have a siren or something that alerts you when someone mentionsays GW? You're on here within like 5 seconds when the topic is even broached. Lol


Same as most others, I'd say. You scan through the blog and then if you see something you want to quote, you quote it. No one knows how long you've been on unless you say so or go back through 200 posts and find an old one and quote it.
Quoting 259. Astrometeor:



Same as most others, I'd say. You scan through the blog and then if you see something you want to quote, you quote it. No one knows how long you've been on unless you say so or go back through 200 posts and find an old one and quote it.


I was just having sone fun. God knows I'm on this blog enough lately :)
Quoting 252. Naga5000:



Strawman argument. How do you know how our houses are powered. The fact is you don't. You assume, and you use it to build some fake argument. It's really insulting and dishonest, and childish.


Naga,

Thats why I asked..dont act like you offended..it's a legit question, there is no dishonesty or strawman argument..Its from time magazine from a guide on how to curb your footprint in GW and one of the reasons is how it states computer use affects C02 emissions..how would I know anything about your house beforehand unless you answer the question that I posed and if you don't want to then ignore it but dont act like I put one of the most offensive questions ever seen on this blog....sounds like a way to avoid the question itself by diverting to another topic of sensitivity..

I can only go by what I see on the blog and you are on here more than 4 hours sometimes as I am as well..The article itself states to cut off power..so even though your house is "special powered" how is that cutting back on your carbon footprint? You share everything else but not about something as simple as computer use?

If this article offends you then thats wild and you can choose not to answer..I wont be angry at all but I'll know you dodge the question..

Quoting 262. ncstorm:



Naga,

Thats why I asked..dont act like you offended..it's a legit question, there is no dishonesty or strawman argument..Its from time magazine from a guide on how to curb your footprint in GW and one of the reasons is how it states computer use affects C02 emissions..how would I know anything about your house beforehand unless you answer the question that I posed and if you don't want to then ignore it but dont act like I put one of the most offensive questions ever seen on this blog....sounds like a way to avoid the question itself by diverting to another topic of sensitivity..

I can only go by what I see on the blog and you are on here more than 4 hours sometimes as I am as well..The article itself states to cut off power..so even though you have your house is "special powered" how is that cutting back on your carbon footprint? You share everything else but not about something as simple as computer use?

If this article offends you then thats wild and you can choose not to answer..




"but you didnt answer my question..how can I be convinced that GW is a threat when the simpliest of cutting back on computer use is not even followed here by the GW crowd.."

That was your assumption, let's not back out of it now. Besides, computer habits of WU commenters have zilch to do with your lack of acceptance of science.
Quoting 261. tampabaymatt:



I was just having sone fun. God knows I'm on this blog enough lately :)


I know. I was thinking about adding something corny, but decided against it. Naga had the better idea anyways, lol.
Quoting 251. ncstorm:

DSR..I'm mad..I'm mad at how we have all these social problems in our world..hunger, disease, homelessness, war, prejudice, poverty, how big interests are underpaying employees and shipping US jobs over seas..yeah I'm mad..I also want to see why you guys are mad about GW so that you go to war on this blog :)

but you didnt answer my question..how can I be convinced that GW is a threat when the simpliest of cutting back on computer use is not even followed here by the GW crowd..I think thats a legit and FAIR question especially if GW folks are here to educate us "deniers".


I know ncstorm, I have the same righteous anger for all the injustice and suffering in the world. You hit many very important points right on the head. The science is the convincer, the world around us and the lack of action by many if not most is why it will worsen and not be abated with action. That certainly includes some of those who believe in AGW because of the clarity of the science. Lessening individual footprint is important and will help as the US has proven, but it's not the larger answer needed to be added to addressing and mitigating AGW down the road. More refuges that at the height of WWII, Christian's and so many others being slaughtered by ISIS, Africa, Central America, Mexico, the list goes on and on and one ncstorm. So I feel ya and I pray for them who do so gravely suffer, but comparing the geopolitical realities of the world to the argument of AGW is just a far cry from each other. If anything looking for the climate irregularities driven likely by AGW that have led to say the Syria conflict. Historic drought was the fuel that began the protests against Assad. Hang in there, don't give up hope. :)
266. bwi
Quoting 184. beell:



It's just a miracle that this did not happen in Texas during our drought. Who knows how close we came to chaos?


Were over a million rural Texans of a particular religious group (Sunni) suddenly impoverished and forced to migrate to cities in other parts of Texas ruled by members of other sects?

Very weak and irrelevant comparison of events on the ground.

Quoting 246. ncstorm:

... Found this article on Time about computer use and Global Warming..I wanted to pose a question to the GW group...every little bit helps right? .

There's something to what you say. However, when it comes to electronic wastes of energy, I'd look at some other culprits before attacking intelligent people seeking to increase their knowledge.

One example of profligate and unexamined waste is the process by which Bitcoins are "mined". This is a serious waste of energy.

Something else to ponder is that 6 to 8% of the electricity produced globally is used by TVs. More reality and less reality TV might be a good thing, eh? :)


On N.C.’s Outer Banks, scary climate-change predictions prompt a change of forecast



In North Carolina, a battle over climate change The state’s forecast for sea level rises and what it means for the Outer Banks meets pushback from some residents.

BY LORI MONTGOMERY June 24 at 7:37 PM

The dangers of climate change were revealed to Willo Kelly in a government conference room in the summer of 2011. By the end of the century, state officials said, the ocean would be 39 inches higher and her home on the Outer Banks would be swamped. The state had detailed maps to illustrate this claim and was developing a Web site where people could check by street address to see if their property was doomed. There was no talk of salvation, no plan to hold back the tide. The 39-inch forecast was “a death sentence,” Kelly said, “for ever trying to sell your house.” So Kelly, a lobbyist for Realtors and home builders on the Outer Banks, resolved to prove the forecast wrong. And thus began one of the nation’s most notorious battles over climate change. Coastal residents joined forces with climate skeptics to attack the science of global warming and persuade North Carolina’s Republican-controlled legislature to deep-six the 39-inch projection, which had been advanced under the outgoing Democratic governor. Now, the state is working on a new forecast that will look only 30 years out and therefore show the seas rising by no more than eight inches.

On N.C.’s Outer Banks scary climate change predictions prompt a change of forecast The Washington PostaaaEnvironmentalists are appalled, and North Carolina has been lampooned as a hotbed of greedy developers trying to “outlaw” the rising tide. Some climate-change experts are sympathetic, however, calling the rebellion an understandable reaction to sea-level forecasts that are rapidly becoming both widely available and alarmingly precise. “The main problem they have is fear,” said Michael Orbach, a marine policy professor at Duke University who has met with coastal leaders. “They realize this is going to have a huge impact on the coastal economy and coastal development interests. And, at this point, we don’t actually know what we’re going to do about it.”

Cities such as Norfolk and Miami have embraced the data, identifying inundation zones as a first step toward planning — and seeking federal funds for — sea walls, floodgates and other forms of protection. On lonelier stretches of the U.S. shoreline, however, government aid seems less likely than interference and abandonment, and the forecasts are sparking deep anxiety about the future. In the Carolinas and Southampton, N.Y., isolated enclaves of ultra-rich shore-front owners have moved preemptively to build private bulkheads to protect their homes from the rising sea. But such fortifications are not an opt ion on the Outer Banks, a string of narrow barrier islands dotted with busy beach towns, isolated fishing villages and stretches of wild seashore. In spots, the islands are barely 100 yards wide.

“We don’t have any tools in our toolbox other than retreat,” Kelly said on a recent morning in a sunny Manteo cafe that would be underwater if the sea were 39 inches higher. “In the backs of their minds, what everyone is thinking is that they just want people off the Outer Banks.” Long before that would happen, though, Kelly worries that codifying the 39-inch forecast would crush the local economy, which relies entirely on tourism and the construction, sale and rental of family beach houses. In Dare County alone, the islands’ largest jurisdiction, the state has identified more than 8,500 structures, with an assessed value of nearly $1.4 billion, that would be inundated if the tides were 39 inches higher. Even with an eight-inch forecast, 414 Dare County properties worth $70 million would be marked for inundation. If the state ever activates the Web site that lets potential investors search by address, Kelly said, “all of a sudden, those properties would be worthless.”

Nationwide, $700 billion of coastal property could be below mean sea level by the end of the century — and an additional $730 billion could be at risk at high tide — without new policies to forestall climate change, according to a new report by the Risky Business Project, a high-powered group of financial and political figures who are set to meet Wednesday with senior Obama administration officials.

So far, locals say there is no sign that the housing market on the Outer Banks is suffering. Nags Head’s town manager, Cliff Ogburn, said that the town is doing a booming business in building permits and that “occupancy is as high as it’s ever been,” having rebounded from the dark days before 2011. That is when Nags Head and Dare County spent $36 million to repair severe erosion on 10 miles of beachfront, where encroaching waves had claimed nearly a dozen houses and the seaside swimming pool at the Nags Head Comfort Inn.

Now the beach looks great, the tourists are back and Duck, Kitty Hawk and Kill Devil Hills are talking to the county about beach nourishment projects of their own.

“We lose beach because the water is rising equal to the thickness of two nickels every year,” Bobby Outten, the manager of Dare County, said on a recent tour of the restored shoreline. “Some call it sea-level rise, but from our perspective it’s erosion, and we’ve been living with it forever.” The arrival of man-made beaches on the Outer Banks has drawn the disapproval of some environmentalists. For generations, the islands have moved with the waves and human settlements have moved with them. These days, however, the islands are so heavily developed, houses threatened by the surf often have nowhere to go. Beach nourishment offers a temporary solution. But as the sea rises, it “ceases to be cost effective and it becomes obvious that something else has to happen,” said Spencer Rogers, an erosion specialist with North Carolina Sea Grant, a research consortium based at North Carolina State University. “If things get to the worst extent, then we’re going to be abandoning places,” Rogers said. “There won’t be any option.” Outten acknowledges that nourishment is a temporary fix, but he argues that it protects property, beautifies the shoreline and keeps the local economy humming. Besides, he said, it’s the only option he’s got. What is it you would ask us to do differently right now? Tell people to move away?” Outten said. “Preaching abandonment is absurd. People would go in the closet and get the guns out.”

That’s nearly what happened when local officials caught wind of the 39-inch forecast. The North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission, which regulates land use in the state’s 20 coastal counties, had asked its science panel to assess vulnerability to sea-level rise, which was then becoming a hot topic nationally. In 2010, the panel reviewed the scientific literature and concluded that the seas along the North Carolina coast could rise anywhere from 15 inches to 55 inches over the coming century, a forecast in line with projections by federal agencies and various other states. But the science panel took a step further. For planning purposes, it said, the state should figure on 39 inches by 2100. So the commission drafted a policy declaring sea-level rise “a pervasive and persistent hazard” and ordering coastal counties to use the 39-inch forecast for private development and public infrastructure projects.

Onge for Virginia-based Wetlands Watch. Bob Emory, the Coastal Resources Commission’s chairman at the time, said its members “had no idea we were opening up a can of worms.” The worms hit the fan in January 2011, when the commission rolled out the policy in a closed-door briefing for Carteret County. “They said there were numerous things the county had to start doing: Raise roads, elevate bridges, rezone land. Any property affected by 39 inches, they wanted to be rezoned as uninhabitable,” said John Droz, a local physicist who was quickly recruited by Carteret County officials to undertake an independent review of the 39-inch forecast. Emory disputed that account, saying the commission had no intention of demanding such drastic action. “We were not at the stage where there was enough certainty to say you can do this here, you can’t do that there,” he said. Nonetheless, the Carteret County chairman fired off a letter asking neighboring counties for help “repudiating the proposal.” The science was uncertain, he wrote, there was no assessment of economic impact and there were no maps to show what it all meant.

By July, when Kelly walked into that meeting of federal and state planning officials, the state had maps. And the news was not good. At 39 inches, the backside of the Outer Banks was gone. So was most of Roanoke Island. Inland, it was worse. On the gentle slope of the piedmont, every foot of sea-level rise would inundate roughly 1,000 acres. Pamlico Sound would look more like the Chesapeake Bay — one of the most profound transformations of coastline predicted anywhere in the country. Rumors spread, and members of the state’s environmental community fanned the flames, musing publicly about an end to new construction on the Outer Banks and the possible abandonment of Highway 12, the islands’ wave-battered, much-repaired lifeline. A member of the science panel, geologist Stanley Riggs, published a book likening the islands to a “string of pearls” that would soon be separated by shoals unable to support a fixed highway. In Dare County, this spawned dark jokes about getting to work by kayak.

In 2012, the General Assembly agreed that the state was moving too fast. Lawmakers set aside the 39-inch forecast and ordered the commission to draft new projections that take into account dissenting views on sea-level rise and its causes. The state’s new Republican governor appointed a new coastal commission chairman, Frank Gorham, an oil and gas man who announced this spring that the new forecast would be limited to 30 years. With the 100-year forecast, “we just lost credibility,” Gorham said. “If you have a 30-year period, people will take it more seriously.” Rogers, who has served on the commission’s science panel since its inception, predicts that the new forecast will look pretty much like the old one, which concluded that the sea would rise at roughly historic rates through 2050. Only in the latter half of the century is sea-level rise projected to accelerate sharply. But that lies outside the scope of the new forecast, which is due out next year.

more:,...
Quoting 263. Naga5000:



"but you didnt answer my question..how can I be convinced that GW is a threat when the simpliest of cutting back on computer use is not even followed here by the GW crowd.."

That was your assumption, let's not back out of it now. Besides, computer habits of WU commenters have zilch to do with your lack of acceptance of science.



So I'm expected to believe that GW is a threat to "civilizations" as its said many times on here but when it comes to cutting back on something as simple as computer use which affects CO2 levels which by way those amounts are posted here at least 4 times a day then I should turn away from that tidbit and still believe in the science itself but not the actions of the GW crowd..

Is that what you're saying?

Now I'm confused...



Quoting 265. DeepSeaRising:



I know ncstorm, I have the same righteous anger for all the injustice and suffering in the world. You hit many very important points right on the head. The science is the convincer, the world around us and the lack of action by many if not most is why it will worsen and not be abated with action. That certainly includes some of those who believe in AGW because of the clarity of the science. Lessening individual footprint is important and will help as the US has proven, but it's not the larger answer needed to be added to addressing and mitigating AGW down the road. More refuges that at the height of WWII, Christian's and so many others being slaughtered by ISIS, Africa, Central America, Mexico, the list goes on and on and one ncstorm. So I feel ya and I pray for them who do so gravely suffer, but comparing the geopolitical realities of the world to the argument of AGW is just a far cry from each other. If anything looking for the climate irregularities driven likely by AGW that have led to say the Syria conflict. Historic drought was the fuel that began the protests against Assad. Hang in there, don't give up hope. :)


I agree its not the larger answer but it is A answer for those who can't take on big government..who don't have political influence as our elected officials do but if your goal on this blog is to convince those who are undecided but yet your part doesn't involve implementing those small answers in your lifestyle how can you convince me to do it when most aren't?

I appreciate your answer too :)
Patrap,

You are on here the most..

I don't see a reply from you? Is your house special powered too?
8:05 NHC disco, partial..

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
THIS EVENING BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 29N101W AND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 21N88W. WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THIS
RELATIVELY STABLE FLOW...AT THE SURFACE...WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED
TROUGHING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE NE GULF STEMMING FROM A WEAK STREAM OF 500 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION SW TO
OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W. THIS MID-LEVEL VORTICITY IS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 83W-92W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SE GULF
NEAR 24N84W TO THE NW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N96W. GENTLE
TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE BREEZE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...EXCEPT NW OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL TROUGHING WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE PENINSULA EACH LATE AFTERNOON PUSHING W INTO THE SW GULF
EACH EVENING.
Quoting 272. ncstorm:

Patrap,

You are on here the most..

I don't see a reply from you? Is your house special powered too?


I think I saw something about Patrap paying for a cab ride for Koritheman. Was the cab fueled by jambalaya or ethanol? Couldn't have been gasoline.
So is the Time Magazine article wrong? Computer use doesn't affect CO2 levels?
Quoting 269. ncstorm:



So I'm expected to believe that GW is a threat to "civilizations" as its said many times on here but when it comes to cutting back on something as simple as computer use which affects CO2 levels which by way those amounts are posted here at least 4 times a day then I should turn away from that tidbit and still believe in the science itself but not the actions of the GW crowd..

Is that what you're saying?




This makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. You cut and paste idea # 30 from a list of Time magazine ideas, without saying what the first 29 are. And # 30 is about turning off your *desktop* computer when not in use. Then you just assume that everyone on here has a desktop computer that they leave on all day when they're not using it. Then you assert that since people do such a thing, therefore global warming itself can't be that big a problem. People use their computers therefore AGW isn't a big deal. That's like saying that HIV doesn't exist because you once met this gay guy who seemed very promiscuous.
Quoting 246. ncstorm:

Hey guys I'm back :)

...how can a "denier" like me as some love to call people on this blog believe that GW is indeed a threat when your carbon footprint is supposedly impacting C02 levels through your personal computer use which is why we have rising temperatures...
Apparently, someone has convinced you we need to shut down modern life in order to mitigate CO2 emissions and keep the climate within some reasonable bounds for civilization. That is not the case: someone has been fibbing to you.


Its a serious question
It's the old "Why does Al Gore have a big house?" question. It's a red herring. The answer to it would have nothing to do with the fact that we are performing a dangerous, uncontrolled experiment on the only atmosphere we have.
Quoting 269. ncstorm:



So I'm expected to believe that GW is a threat to "civilizations" as its said many times on here but when it comes to cutting back on something as simple as computer use which affects CO2 levels which by way those amounts are posted here at least 4 times a day then I should turn away from that tidbit and still believe in the science itself but not the actions of the GW crowd..

Is that what you're saying?




No, I'm saying you made an assumption and stereotyped a group of us "GW crowd" in order to justify your denial, then denied you made the assumption even though the evidence is right there. And I am calling you out for it, because you don't know crap about us or what we do, and that assumption on who we are, which you then attempt to throw back in our faces, is childish and insulting. Nothing more.
Quoting 274. tampabaymatt:



I think I saw something about Patrap paying for a cab ride for Koritheman. Was the cabest fueled by jambalaya or ethanol?


LOL..I'm going to go with straight up Gulf of Mexico oil funded gasoline..BP still stumping on New Orleans it seems..

but I don't know why a bus or even the trolly wasn't taken which helps in curbing your carbon footprint..better than a cab..
SYNOPSIS 2015072100

93L .. P07L
11N, 60W
925 hPa


ECMWF: More difficult to track P07L through the South Caribbean vorticity strip than in yesterday’s forecast. This low-level pouch has a distinct (although weak) circulation for 24 hours, but then it enters the vorticity strip and is impossible to discern.

GFS: Similar to yesterday’s GFS forecast, with a hint of the wave-pouch passing through the South Caribbean vorticity strip and then dissipating at the Nicaraguan coast. Initial position is farther south than ECMWF and previous GFS track, but P07L gains latitude by 12 hours.

UKMET:

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -8.3 0.9 v925 24h
GFS -9.3 0.4 v925 72h

Quoting 279. Naga5000:



No, I'm saying you made an assumption and stereotyped a group of us "GW crowd" in order to justify your denial, then denied you made the assumption even though the evidence is right there. And I am calling you out for it, because you don't know crap about us or what we do, and that assumption on who we are, which you then attempt to throw back in our faces, is childish and insulting. Nothing more.



But Naga, I'm only going by what I see personally on the blog..you mean to tell me your friends plus your many comments but power off after each plus?

and please stop like you are offended when you have insulted so many people on this blog..didnt you just say to Barefoot about having a thick skin and to throw some type of stone?

Its a fair question and you know it..
Im flattered, but I walk an avg of 3 miles with a canine everyday.

Keeps me fit, and tall.

Save when auburn visits, then its sea food and eat seafood usually.

Quoting 282. ncstorm:



But Naga, I'm only going by what I see personally on the blog..you mean to tell me your friends plus your many comments but power off after each plus?

and please stop like you are offended when you have insulted so many people on this blog..didnt you just say to Barefoot about having a thick skin and to throw some type of stone?

Its a fair question and you know it..


Wait, you know what people on this blog do with their computers, what kind of computers they have, and how their homes are powered? No, you assume, and you acted on that assumption and then you tried to use the assumption to demean others. You don't have the right to lecture me about niceness. You could just apologize for continuing a vendetta against the "gw crowd" whatever that means, but instead you have chosen to double down.
Thats great Pat about the walking, but is your house special powered to help with your computer use and to curb the CO2 emissions?

If not, I understand, as Naga said its expensive.....mine isn't either but again I'm not the one on here telling the world we are in dire straits with GW in almost every single post..because that would be like Barry Bonds selling steroids supplements on TV..

Also my capitalists endeavours keeps the energy efficiency produced here at the maximum cost effective level.

Zero..

I also try and educate thru the past, the problems to come in the future.


Sacramento Levee Risk,a Disaster in waiting | Weather Underground


Link

My wife has been disabled since 2003, I don't feel it is necessary to explain anything to anyone.

But we have shared a lot here over 10 years.

G'night.

Quoting 284. Naga5000:



Wait, you know what people on this blog do with their computers, what kind of computers they have, and how their homes are powered? No, you assume, and you acted on that assumption and then you tried to use the assumption to demean others. You don't have the right to lecture me about niceness. You could just apologize for continuing a vendetta against the "gw crowd" whatever that means, but instead you have chosen to double down.


Well I see you will keep dodging the question and making it about an attack instead..

If that aint a strawman ploy I don't know what it is :)

Quoting 283. Patrap:

Im flattered, but I walk an avg of 3 miles with a canine everyday.

Keeps me fit, and tall.

Save when auburn visits, then its sea food and eat seafood usually.


there may be a lot of AGW posts here..Food comments cannot be too far behind..:)
Quoting 287. Patrap:

My wife has been disabled since 2003, I don't feel it is necessary to explain anything to anyone.

But we have shared a lot here over 10 years.

G'night.


Peace
this conversation is not going any where and before it gets out of hand lets change the subject for a bit and talk about weather ..
Quoting 289. hydrus:

there may be a lot of AGW posts here..Food comments cannot be too far behind..:)


Man, it was so hot today I made an omelet on the sidewalk AND homefries
"I can't believe AGW is a problem because IMO you guys aren't doing anything about it."

So if a hurricane is approaching and some people aren't evacuating, that means there's no hurricane?

A wildfire is burning in your direction but your neighbor isn't loading up his car to leave, so there's no wildfire?

What sense does that make? If the science says AGW is happening and humans are causing it, then what difference does it make what Al Gore does? Or Nea or Naga or Patrap or Astro or me or anybody else? The science is what it is. It's the people who refuse to look at the science who go around looking for excuses deny AGW. And that' s all we're hearing here - excuses.
Quoting 291. whitewabit:

this conversation is not going any where and before it gets out of hand lets change the subject for a bit and talk about weather ..


Yes, I agree as I got nothing but diversions as answers..

regarding the weather some of the 12z Euro Ensembles are showing lows on both east and west coast of Florida along now as well as showing lows for the first disturbance off the NC coast..going to be an interesting couple of days..

I'll take my leave and go power off my laptop until tomorrow..every little bit helps :)



296. Inyo
posts to this blog causing climate change? lol. talk about fussing over the small things. But in any event... climate change is happening regardless of whether people post on this blog or not. Vehicles, food production, and heating/cooling together are the vast majority of fossil fuel emissions associated with energy/fuel use. It's good to turn your computer off when you aren't using it but the idea that posting on a blog is any significant driver for climate change is just silly.
After reading the last 2 pages of mostly dribble , I have come to the conclusion that this blog is in DIRE need of and Atlantic system
Quoting 293. FLwolverine:

"I can't believe AGW is a problem because IMO you guys aren't doing anything about it."

So if a hurricane is approaching and some people aren't evacuating, that means there's no hurricane?

A wildfire is burning in your direction but your neighbor isn't loading up his car to leave, so there's no wildfire?

What sense does that make? If the science says AGW is happening and humans are causing it, then what difference does it make what Al Gore does? Or Nea or Naga or Patrap or Astro or me or anybody else? The science is what it is. It's the people who refuse to look at the science who go around looking for excuses deny AGW. And that' s all we're hearing here - excuses.


You don't see anything hypocritical about every single post someone makes being about how bad GW is and how the only solution is to stop using fossil fuels, yet they use fossil fuels just like the rest of us?
The Song Remains the Same

Sorry, wab. I was writing while you were posting.

I'm done. Powering down.

PS I always turn my computer off after using it. Usually my iPad too. Saves on the electric bill.
Quoting 244. CybrTeddy:



Divide whatever Scott posts by five and you get an accurate depiction of rainfall totals. :)

(just messing with you Scott, btw)
I knock off two thirds of the predicted total..:)
302. beell
Quoting 266. bwi:



Were over a million rural Texans of a particular religious group (Sunni) suddenly impoverished and forced to migrate to cities in other parts of Texas ruled by members of other sects?

Very weak and irrelevant comparison of events on the ground.


This would also apply to climate change as a causative factor for years (centuries?) of unrest and human rights abuse in a part of the world that can't resolve their sectarian issues.



Also, if your near Arlington, Va..we will be up that way late next week.




Arlington Getting it Right Conference
By: Portlight , 11:01 AM CDT on July 09, 2015


The Getting It Right Workshop will provide tools to facilitate full integration and inclusion in all aspects of emergency preparedness and response. We will help you understand how to be in full compliance to avoid litigation. The speakers include representatives from FEMA, the American Red Cross, disability stakeholder organizations, and those involved in the recent litigation of the Brooklyn Center for Independence of the Disabled v. City of New York.
Quoting 298. tampabaymatt:



You don't see anything hypocritical about every single post someone makes being about how bad GW is and how the only solution is to stop using fossil fuels, yet they use fossil fuels just like the rest of us?
That's not the point. Even if it were hypocritical, that would not be an excuse to refuse to accept the science. The science says AGW is happening, humans are causing it, and the results are more likely than not going to be bad. Refusing to accept that because you don't like the person saying it, or you think they are hypocritical, doesn't change the facts.

Arguing about whether someone's a hypocrite or not only diverts attention from the facts.

Sorry, wab.
should i cancel my cruise
Quoting 297. floridaT:

After reading the last 2 pages of mostly dribble , I have come to the conclusion that this blog is in DIRE need of and Atlantic system

This is true..There are two systems Halola and 99E, but they are not receiving much attention for the time being..Suffice it to say, 99E looks very unorganized..


Quoting 289. hydrus:

there may be a lot of AGW posts here..Food comments cannot be too far behind..:)


If this was Saturday or Sunday morning, food comments would be way ahead. I hope nasty accusations that have nothing to do with the point won't be on the menu. Safe to assume most here do their part in minimizing their footprint in the realm of REASON. It has zero to do with the science behind AGW. So this line of unfair attack is pointless to what the science is. It's a legitimate and fair question in the sense, what do you do to mitigate your carbon footprint? But the assumption that those here don't so you can't believe them is grossly unfair, prejudiced, and just not something you can know. It's judgment without fact. Last I'll say on it ncstorm, hope you will reconsider this manner of questioning, and perceive just how this is coming across.
Quoting 305. FLwolverine:

That's not the point. Even if it were hypocritical, that would not be an excuse to refuse to accept the science. The science says AGW is happening, humans are causing it, and the results are more likely than not going to be bad. Refusing to accept that because you don't like the person saying it, or you think they are hypocritical, doesn't change the facts.

Arguing about whether someone's a hypocrite or not only diverts attention from the facts.

Sorry, wab.


For the record, I believe GW is happening and human caused.
Another beautiful summer day here in Alaska... A little cloudy out but otherwise nice. Temps in the 60's - sun still out until around midnight when it becomes civil twilight.
Quoting 306. intampa:

should i cancel my cruise
Yep...Thats what everyone does when the weather perfect over the entire Atlantic Basin.

Quoting 297. floridaT:

After reading the last 2 pages of mostly dribble , I have come to the conclusion that this blog is in DIRE need of and Atlantic system

Well since we have nothing, did you know on this date in 1909 the Velasco Hurricane made landfall in Velasco, Texas as a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph. and a storm surge of 10 feet. The hurricane caused a dredge to knock down the telegraph cables on the Galveston Causeway, halting all rail transportation and cutting off communication at the time.





The old Jeff Davis High School:


DSR..I see Wabit let you and the wolverine comment so I will rebuttle..

There was NOTHING wrong in my comment to ask what the GW crowd was doing to curb their CO2 emissions through computer use..it wasn't from a website that you guys are so against and always cry foul about..Its from Time Magazine..

You guys are really reaching to divert away from your excessive use of your computer and how your carbon footprint is flawed..

the only dishonesty I see is the strawman attempt from your crowd to claim you are offended..If you dont want to be ask about your carbon footprint then then don't preach to me about GW..

pure and simple which is just like cutting back on computer use..



Quoting 313. ncstorm:

DSR..I see Wabit let you and the wolverine comment so I will rebuttle..

There was NOTHING wrong in my comment to ask what the GW crowd was doing to curb their CO2 emissions through computer use..it wasn't from a website that you guys are so against and always cry foul about..Its from Time Magazine..

You guys are really reaching to divert away from your excessive use of your computer and how your carbon footprint is flawed..

the only dishonesty I see is the strawman attempt from your crowd to claim you are offended..If you dont want to be ask about your carbon footprint then then don't preach to me about GW..

pure and simple which is just like cutting back on computer use..





I'm sorry NC, but it seems like what you want is for people to stop discussing GW. If you cared about energy use you would be asking a long list of questions, like how many children did you have, how much SF living area do you use per person, what is your transportation, building materials, where does your food come from,etc. To pick on one small minor thing that you dislike just stands out.

Plus, why are you not urging tropical storm enthusiasts to turn off their computers, if you care so much about it?
316. vis0

Quoting 104. barbamz:

The Good, Gross, and Eerie of LA's Weird Weekend Weather
Tuesday, July 21, 2015, by Bianca Barragan
... But while there's no doubt we can use all the rain we can get in Southern California, it did do some gross things too.
When Heal the Bay's beach report card came out in June with brag-worthy numbers for many LA-area beaches, experts said part of the reason for the cleanliness was the extreme drought; with less rain runoff to carry contaminants into the sea, the water was markedly less polluted. But storms on Saturday and Sunday brought what's called the "first flush" to SoCal beaches, says KPCC, essentially carrying the contents of the toilet bowl that is Los Angeles—trash, chemicals, bacteria, and other good stuff— into the pipes and out to the ocean.
That brought "a rare amount of pollution" to beaches—LA, Orange, Ventura, and San Diego Counties all warned beachgoers to stay away from the waves. (Runoff from a storm like the one last weekend can cause "stomach flus and rashes.") The rule of thumb to follow, apparently, is to avoid beaches for 72 hours after the rain stops. ...

Whole article see link above.
my zilly cmmnt at my zilly pg.  cmmnt#7. (PS know of SAR2401s surgery with the Eye Aye Aye Dr.)
Quoting 314. Patrap:

Jesus wept.


John 11:35 ..Shortest verse in king James .
319. txjac
Question ...TBS has a new show coming out ...America's next weatherman (I think thats the name?)

Just curious if anyone that visits this blog is participating in this show.

And ...still hot in Houston. The 20% chance of rain showers didnt pan out for me. I'm really missing the rain, will have to look up when we last got rain here on my side of town, feels like forever ago

Personally I hope Levi is in the running ...watched that guy grow up on this blog ...
Quoting 315. annabatic:


I'm sorry NC, but it seems like what you want is for people to stop discussing GW. If you cared about energy use you would be asking a long list of questions, like how many children did you have, how much SF living area do you use per person, what is your transportation, building materials, where does your food come from,etc. To pick on one small minor thing that you dislike just stands out.


I only want people to stop calling others "deniers"..claiming insults is done in the name of science and belittling folks..I could care less about anyone discussing GW..if it was civil and not a mockery of people comments and thats from both sides then I wouldn't say a word..

and its not minor..cutting your C02 emissions by 20% is great..and just think if millions did it?
Quoting 320. ncstorm:



I only want people to stop calling others "deniers"..claiming insults is done in the name of science and belittling folks..I could care less about anyone discussing GW..if it was civil and not a mockery of people comments and thats from both sides then I wouldn't say a word..

and its not minor..cutting your C02 emissions by 20% is great..and just think if millions did it?


Denier is in the scientific literature, it is someone who denies. Denial is a social psychological defense mechanism. Have you even read any literature on science denial? Stop denying science and people will stop calling those people deniers.

In fact, some people even refer to themselves as deniers.


Big BOOMers overhead. Where are the Sooners? I guess they left the room.
Thanks Mr. Henson. A fascinating read today!
I have a new blog out on the Hurricane Season. Everyone is welcome to see! Link
Quoting 256. Naga5000:



It's like a bat signal, but it's in the shape of Al Gore.

But seriously, I keep WU open in a window while I'm reading or writing or doing research as a break.
Naga, that actually worked as a joke .... lol ...

Evening all... took me 2 hours to cool down enough to blog after an afternoon out in the heat ... the humidity is relentless and the sunshine is penetrating ... I admit I get a bit antsy when the wx is this bad in July, since it means there's a lot of heat potential in our area for whatever does blow up out there :o/ ...

Watching with interest to see if we get #4 storm out of the Gulf ...
Quoting 276. MaineGuy:



This makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. You cut and paste idea # 30 from a list of Time magazine ideas, without saying what the first 29 are. And # 30 is about turning off your *desktop* computer when not in use. Then you just assume that everyone on here has a desktop computer that they leave on all day when they're not using it. Then you assert that since people do such a thing, therefore global warming itself can't be that big a problem. People use their computers therefore AGW isn't a big deal. That's like saying that HIV doesn't exist because you once met this gay guy who seemed very promiscuous.
I gotta admit, ncstorm, I was curious about #1 - 29 myself. It seems a bit specious to jump down to # 30 when obviously, from the ordering of the tips, there are 29 "better" things people could do to cut emissions.

Additionally, you are assuming people are using computers, when tablets, which use considerably less energy, are becoming the tool of choice for many bloggers. Finally, saying that a person who is NOT using the high-emission energy sources are equally guilty is not logical.

It seems to me that the point of the article's advice was not that people STOP using their computers, but rather that they only keep them on when they are actually in use. I use a laptop, and it's set to auto power off after a relatively short period of non-use [five minutes???] So it seems a lot may already have been done by our AGW supporting friends to follow the advice given, perhaps without even consciously trying to do so. It seems to me that a lot of the push in tech circles has been towards creating more efficient machines that can do more with less energy.

Interesting conversation ...
Baha,

Your laptop unless you have a green energy efficient one which you stated you didn't is harmful to the environment..If you guys need anymore information email me and I'll be glad to assist..I sure hope others won't think this is an attack

Environmentally-harmful Production Processes

Laptop production processes impact the global environment in many ways. Most significantly, lap top production requires considerable amounts of energy, eventually leading to dire impacts on the environment.

Most of the laptop production relies on the fossil fuel energy, which is a known cause for climate change and global warming witnessed across the world today. Besides, lap top manufacturing being extremely energy intensive, leads to fast depletion of naturally-occurring fossil fuel resources.

Microchip fabrication during lap top manufacturing, especially leads to harmful exposure to chemicals and toxic emissions, causing great damage to the environmental health of neighboring communities.


Harmful Chemicals in Laptop Components

Many laptop computer components contain hazardous chemicals, which pose a potential risk to the environment.

Laptop components such as display screens and keyboards contain large quantities of heavy metals including lead, cadmium, chromium and mercury, which are proven to cause serious environmental hazards such as water contamination, when discarded and dumped in landfills after use and expiry. [3]
E-waste

Obsolete and used laptop computers eventually add to the e-waste, which gets dumped in environmentally-unsafe landfill sites. The metallic parts of the computers especially contain numerous toxic chemicals such as lead and mercury, which are considered to be chief contributors to the chemical pollution of the environment.

Several environmental studies concluded that improper e-waste disposal would inevitably lead to water, air and soil contamination. [4]


Popular Laptop Brands and Contamination

Many of the popular laptop brands in the digital market are found to be produced using some of the most-toxic chemicals. Best-known computer brands such as Apple, Hewlett-Packard, Acer, Sony and Dell are found to contain some of the most-harmful chemicals including polyvinyl chloride plastic (PVC), lead and brominated flame retardants (BFR), which are potential environmental contaminants. However, Apple has shown strides to reduce their environmental impact by implementing electronics recycling programs and reducing their emissions of greenhouse gases during their production process. [5]

you can read more in the Link..

Night all..for real :)

Unplug Patrap..do your part..
I think we need a weather blog and a climate change blog. I like talking about both, but they are currently going together like oil and water.
June PDO is @ 1.54 highest June value since 1997.
Quoting 332. StormTrackerScott:

June PDO is @ 1.54 highest June value since 1997.


Gee, I wunder what caused dat?


Patrap, you are the master of computer use and editing your own comments..no one tops you here.
Quoting 326. ncstorm:

Baha,

Your laptop unless you have a green energy efficient one which you stated you didn't is harmful to the environment..If you guys need anymore information email me and I'll be glad to assist..I sure hope others won't think this is an attack

you can read more in the Link..

Night all..for real :)


Well I didn't actually State I didn't have one. Some very interesting info in here.

The big thing for me is that these laptops have ALREADY been made.... if I don't buy one, am I contributing to the emissions problem? What's the trade-off for me between buying a newer, more energy efficient one, and keeping my older, less efficient one for as long as possible to prevent myself from contributing to the emissions increase? How have production processes changed since we started focusing on the impacts of AGW to lessen the impacts of the production process?

These are imo much better questions than whether I personally feel ashamed because I have a laptop and use it several times a day.

I think legitimate information about ways people can individually reduce their carbon footprint is worth posting and reading. However, I also think relevant information about the SCIENCE is important. IMO there shouldn't be an "either-or" dichotomy going on. Even if you don't "believe" in AGW, a lot of the changes make our societies more energy efficient and less wasteful.

I keep thinking about Y2K, which was supposed to be a big disaster, but turned out to be an anticlimax - because people worked together to minimize the impacts caused by the computing flaw. While AGW is a somewhat more complex problem to solve, a similar approach would likely at least mitigate against some of the long-term impacts. Imagine if people who didn't "believe" in the Y2K problem [and yes, there were deniers then] were able to convince 30% of US businesses NOT to apply the fix?

Just a few thoughts.
Quoting 332. StormTrackerScott:

June PDO is @ 1.54 highest June value since 1997.


What is the highest on record overall?
See what I did there?

I used "Science"..

Also, We can multi task,..plus, I'm fairly sure the author's here always like to see the new info as do millions of Lurkers.
There's a "science" to editing comments? Gee, I didnt know that..you learn something new here every day :)

I'll catch you tomorrow as I got a mothership hovering over me..take care..







Quoting 337. Dakster:



What is the highest on record overall?

3.31 in August 1941.
Hail can do terrible damage to the car finish.




Quoting 342. TropicalAnalystwx13:


3.31 in August 1941.


Yikes.... Thanks.
Besides the warmer than usual SSTs further north, I think the only way a tropical cyclone can get to the California coast is if it's accelerated by a strong jet approaching from the southwest, meaning most likely an El Nino southerly jet akin to the ones that bring in Hawaiian/Pineapple Connections. Basically what hurricanes do along the Eastern seaboard---curving north and getting caught in a jet and baroclinic flow. And it isn't just SoCal that might be imperiled. If the curvature scenario occurs further west, a storm could also be accelerated into the central or even north coasts.

An alternate scenario, one that was alluded to, is if a compact hurricane, perhaps an annular storm, climbs the Gulf of California with its eye over the water all the way to the head of the Gulf. The surrounding dry terrain would probably also have to have been pre-moistened, else the storm would be choking on dry air intrusions all the way.
Quoting 28. TimSoCal:

Thanks, Bob. It's still amazing to me that a storm can run the gauntlet straight up the Baja coast without getting too close, and do it quickly enough to retain tropical characteristics. Although, what Dolores did in July, while moving fairly slow, does demonstrate the possibility fairly well.
How can our actions cause something you don't even think exists, NC. What a world you must live in, my laptop both causes climate change according to your link, but you don't think human caused climate change is real. You've backed yourself into a real pickle here. Which one is it? Both statements cannot be true at the same time, either my laptop causes climate change and therefore you reject science, or my laptop does not, and therefore I am not a hypocrite in your mind.

Inquiring minds want to know.
347. vis0

Quoting 195. PlazaRed:

I'm still "droning on," about this thing with the drones.
I saw a TV news programme here a few days ago where people are having to go on courses to operate drones.
They had real airline pilots talking about them as well, apparently there have been several incidents where drones have been flying over civil airports! Can you imagine it, with the flight controllers trying to chat to some goon on a mobile phone about his drone being in civil aviation airspace?
The Europeans will sort it out very soon with licences like they did with guns and cars etc. but insurance must be a legal requirement along with numerical markings, chips etc. ASAP.
Then again I suppose somebody is making a lot of money out of selling these things.
my reply at my zilly pages cmmnt#9
Quoting 319. txjac:

Question ...TBS has a new show coming out ...America's next weatherman (I think thats the name?)

Just curious if anyone that visits this blog is participating in this show.

And ...still hot in Houston. The 20% chance of rain showers didnt pan out for me. I'm really missing the rain, will have to look up when we last got rain here on my side of town, feels like forever ago

Personally I hope Levi is in the running ...watched that guy grow up on this blog ...


I don't think I am good looking enough or socially capable of being in a reality show about weathermen/women. :(
349. beell
I will be strong, Naga. I will not venture into pickle joke territory.
Quoting 349. beell:

I will be strong, Naga. I will not venture into pickle joke territory.


Oh, come on now, don't leave me hanging like this. :)
Naga,

I thought you were so offended by my post, which is it you're offended or you now want to know my thoughts on the same question you dodge?

Inquiring minds want to know..
Quoting 351. ncstorm:

Naga,

I thought you were so offended by my post, which is it you're offended or you now want to know my thoughts on the same question you dodge?

Inquiring minds want to know..


I answered your question way on back in post 258 on how I live, since you seem so interested it little ole me. I was not offended, I found you to be disingenuous. Now, can you explain your contradiction?
This is cool. Just figured out how to blog on my new phone!

Heat index in Mobile today was 108.
Yesterday was 112.
354. beell
The following 12 hopefuls are set to compete on Funny Or Die Presents America's Next Weatherman

Jennifer Jazzy T Williams (32), of Buffalo, N.Y., a radio personality with 10 years of on-air experience and a degree in telecommunications and digital media arts.

Frank Margini (32) of Old Tappan, N.J., a fitness trainer and former member of Air Force with a degree in criminal justice and only 5% body fat.

Jeff Forgeron (25) of San Diego, Calif., an Associated Press writer for Weather Underground who has a degree in meteorology.

Miller Robson (42) of Columbus, Ga., a former wrestler and local meteorologist/anchor who is working toward a degree in meteorology.

Jenn Barlow (28) of San Diego, Calif., a sneaky smart blonde with seven years experience as a television reporter and host.

Mackenzie Bart (23), of Columbus, Ohio, Miss Ohio 2014 who is currently working on her degree in atmospheric science.

Ron Hilliard (28), of Detroit, Mich., a news intern and SKYWARN-trained weather spotter with a degree in the interdisciplinary humanities of communications, theater and Spanish.

Michelle Rotella (27) of Germantown, Md., a meteorologist who graduated from high school at 16 before earning a bachelor's degree in meteorology.

Aubrey Evans (25), of Las Vegas, Nev., a model and skilled ice skater with an abundance of life experience to bring to the competition.

Christina Faraone (26) of Walden, N.Y., a Marine meteorologist technician whose master's thesis was on the role of weather in aviation.

David Collins (34) from Deland, Fla., a Navy veteran who graduated at the top of his meteorology class and spent four years as an operational weather briefer.

Drew Logan (26) of Westlake Village, Calif., a pastor and former college football player who recently completed his master's degree.

adweek.com
There is no contradiction..I believe the Earth goes through natural cycles..I believe we as humans are impacting the Earth with putting big oil interests and lobbyists before our environment..EPA regulations fall through the cracks because of special interests..I'm all about the green energy movement but there is a cost as you even stated it was expensive..if you haven't noticed but working middle class families can't afford anymore taxation..You give me a solution where you don't tax my paycheck anymore than whats it already being taxed and middle and lower working class families can afford the green energy initiatives to curb our C02 emissions then you got someone ready to do her part..but until then..I see the GW push as another way to take more money away from working Americans..
Quoting 353. JustDucky251:

This is cool. Just figured out how to blog on my new phone!

Heat index in Mobile today was 108.
Yesterday was 112.


Ouch, that is just burning hot.
Quoting 351. ncstorm:

Naga,

I thought you were so offended by my post, which is it you're offended or you now want to know my thoughts on the same question you dodge?

Inquiring minds want to know..

Hi again,
Thanks for bringing up the energy use question regarding computers, because I don't normally think about it. I use a laptop and turn it and the router off when not using it- probably like most people? Anyway, mr annabatic and I calculated that my laptop plus the wifi router uses about 180 Watts- so, less than (2) 100 watt bulbs. Every little bit counts, but it doesn't seem like the obvious first thing to cut back on. Adjusting the thermostat, driving less, mowing with a reel mower- I would think those activities make a much bigger difference.
Quoting 355. ncstorm:

There is no contradiction..I believe the Earth goes through natural cycles..I believe we as humans are impacting the Earth with putting big oil interests and lobbyists before our environment..EPA regulations fall through the cracks because of special interests..I'm all about the green energy movement but there is a cost as you even stated it was expensive..if you haven't noticed but working middle class families can't afford anymore taxation..You give me a solution where you don't tax my paycheck anymore than whats it already being taxed and middle and lower working class families can afford the green energy initiatives to curb our C02 emissions then you got someone ready to do her part..but until then..I see the GW push as another way to take more money away from working Americans..


So your rejection comes because you don't like taxes?

There is nothing to say. I'm sorry you feel that way. I gladly pay my taxes and would pay more if it meant real help, but I have never thought a carbon tax was a good solution unless you could prevent it from being passed onto consumers.I hope all that money will serve you well when last minute mitigation policy is enacted and the cost of that will far outweigh any money saved from inaction in the short term. I hope you find solace in it. I really do.
Quoting 356. Dakster:



Ouch, that is just burning hot.



Makes going out for lunch a little less comfortable. We just get used to it here and take it in small bites. Not too bad in 15 minute increments.
Quoting 357. annabatic:


Hi again,
Thanks for bringing up the energy use question regarding computers, because I don't normally think about it. I use a laptop and turn it and the router off when not using it- probably like most people? Anyway, mr annabatic and I calculated that my laptop plus the wifi router uses about 180 Watts- so, less than (2) 100 watt bulbs. Every little bit counts, but it doesn't seem like the obvious first thing to cut back on. Adjusting the thermostat, driving less, mowing with a reel mower- I would think those activities make a much bigger difference.


Why cant you do them all? If cutting back on your laptop is less important than the other things you mention then what harm would it be to do all of those things?..in fact you save money with less computer use..just a thought

I think I see the problem of people being afraid to let go of the social aspect of blogging, being on twitter, facebook or even snap chat for some of the younger folks if asked to cut back to 4 hours a day..I personally couldn't do it but again I'm not thinking civilizations will end behind GW so nothing hypocritical about my actions..

My husband is standing over me with a look telling me to get off computer..I do have to go now..

Night all for the 90th time :)
Quoting 358. Naga5000:



So your rejection comes because you don't like taxes?

There is nothing to say.


So you love taxes?
Quoting 361. ncstorm:



So you love taxes?


Yeah I pay historically low tax rates and I like pooling money to help others and pay for schools and roads and police and fire, and national parks, and societal organization. I don't agree with all spending options, but that's life.
Got in about 45 minutes ago from spending the evening at the emergency vet with my beagle. He wasn't acting himself all afternoon--wouldn't eat anything, wouldn't respond to anyone. He would just lay there. They checked him and said he had a heatstroke. They replaced his fluids and minerals. While we were sitting in the waiting room for him to come back out, another guy carried his dog in and said his dog was having a hard time breathing and moving after going for a run. The vets and the guy went back to a room; the man came back about 30 minutes later, bawling. The vet told him she was sorry, so I can only assume the dog had to be put down.

This heat is dangerous. My beagle was only outside for about 10 minutes, but that was long enough. Be a better pet owner than I am and only keep your dogs out for a very short period of time. Make sure they have plenty of water and shade if they absolutely have to be outside.
364. vis0

Quoting 251. ncstorm:

DSR..I'm mad..I'm mad at how we have all these social problems in our world..hunger, disease, homelessness, war, prejudice, poverty, how big interests are underpaying employees and shipping US jobs over seas..yeah I'm mad..I also want to see why you guys are mad about GW so that you go to war on this blog :)

but you didnt answer my question..how can I be convinced that GW is a threat when the simpliest of cutting back on computer use is not even followed here by the GW crowd..I think thats a legit and FAIR question especially if GW folks are here to educate us "deniers".
REPLY to this cmmnt on my zilly pg blog cmmnt#10
The man who introduced us to climate change just issued a dire warning about sea levels in New York.
Robbie Couch By Robbie Couch

In 1988, James Hansen told Congress that climate change is real. Now, his new paper spells out why it's much worse than what we thought.


The former NASA scientist gained credit for forging wide awareness of the issue when, in 1988, he told Congress "the evidence is pretty strong" that human-caused global warming is — well — a thing.
Hansen, who now works at Columbia University's Earth Institute, has a history of being ahead of the curve when it comes to climate science. So you can imagine why a new paper he's set to publish this week alongside 16 other researchers is causing quite the stir.
Hansen's new research claims sea levels could rise about 7 feet higher than other estimates throughout the next 85 years.
As we know, higher temperatures caused by increased global greenhouse gas emissions is melting ice near the Earth's poles. That means higher sea levels.
In his new paper, which will be published in the peer-reviewed Atmospheric Physics and Chemistry journal, Hansen claims that — unless humans start emitting way fewer greenhouse gases, like, now — ice at the poles will melt at exponentially faster rates than currently predicted.
The IPCC, the U.N.'s panel focused on climate change, predicts sea levels to rise about 3 feet by 2100. That figure's already alarming scientists. Hansen's new research, however, predicts it'll be more like 10 feet.
A sea level 10 feet higher would make coastal cities like New York, London, and Shanghai completely uninhabitable.

Aerial photo of New York City by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images.

It's sort of difficult to overstate how big of a deal that is. Not only would this affect millions of people, several trillion dollars worth of infrastructure could be destroyed.
“Parts of [coastal cities] would still be sticking above the water," Hansen said. “But you couldn't live there."
The year 2100 ... some of us could still be alive!
The discrepancy between Hansen's figures and the U.N.'s largely comes down to melting freshwater ice as opposed to melting saltwater ice.
Hansen's research claims that when freshwater ice on land (and not saltwater icebergs) melts into the oceans near places like Greenland and Antarctica, the colder freshwater traps the warmer, saltier water below. This trapped, warmer water causes further melting below the surface — a process that only increases the amount of additional water being added to our oceans as more freshwater ice melts into the sea.
Scientists have claimed that limiting global climate change to 2 degrees Celsius (about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) could protect the Earth from devastatingly high sea levels. But the trapped warmer seawater is increasing the melting process quicker than expected, according to Hansen, so that 2 degrees Celsius figure won't cut it.
The IPCC doesn't consider this freshwater effect in its projections. Hansen says there's evidence it's already happening.

Greenland's disappearing glaciers have become alarming symbols of a warming planet. Photo by Uriel Sinai/Getty Images.

But before you panic! Don't worry. There are reasons to be hopeful we can prevent the worst that global warming has in store.
After all, combating climate change is no longer on the world's back burner (global warming pun unintended).
Ahead of the the United Nations' climate summit in New York City back in September 2014, more than 400,000 people took to the streets to show world leaders that curbing climate change needs to be a priority.
And government bodies are listening. The U.S. and China, for example, reached a historic agreement just months after the climate march that will cut each country's coal consumption way back in the years to come. So far, China is taking the commitment seriously.
This will result in significantly less greenhouse gas emitted by two of the largest nations contributing to global warming.

Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images.

Hansen agrees: We still hold the fate of our planet in our hands when it comes to climate change.
He said we “could actually come in well under 2 degrees if we make the price of fossil fuels honest." That means taxing fossil fuel-burning businesses and governments, which will encourage eco-friendlier practices.
Even with his latest research painting a dire future ahead, if Hansen believes we can make a meaningful difference in the decades to come, we all should.

But we have to act big, and we have to act now.
Quoting 355. ncstorm:

There is no contradiction..I believe the Earth goes through natural cycles..I believe we as humans are impacting the Earth with putting big oil interests and lobbyists before our environment..EPA regulations fall through the cracks because of special interests..I'm all about the green energy movement but there is a cost as you even stated it was expensive..if you haven't noticed but working middle class families can't afford anymore taxation..You give me a solution where you don't tax my paycheck anymore than whats it already being taxed and middle and lower working class families can afford the green energy initiatives to curb our C02 emissions then you got someone ready to do her part..but until then..I see the GW push as another way to take more money away from working Americans..


How about fee and dividend? A fee is collected for all fossil fuels. Subsequently prices of fossil fuel increases. The collected fee is distributed among taxpayers. The increased price of fossil fuel encourages consumers to make energy efficient choices. The increased demand for efficient energy spurs innovation. The free market decides.
367. txjac
@ 363. TropicalAnalystwx13
I hope that you pup makes a full recovery. I wish I could give the guy that is having such a bad night (and probably many more to come) a hug. I know what that feels like. My animals are now my family since my kids have moved out. Give your pup a cuddle from me
Quoting 366. wilsongti45:



How about fee and dividend? A fee is collected for all fossil fuels. Subsequently prices of fossil fuel increases. The collected fee is distributed among taxpayers. The increased price of fossil fuel encourages consumers to make energy efficient choices. The increased demand for efficient energy spurs innovation. The free market decides.


How about tax the heck out of big oil companies..they can afford it..there are working middle class families that are paying more taxes to the Govt than some of these billion dollar companies who get special tax breaks..
Think of all the Oil and coal used tonight.


I'm gonna let the dogs off the Power treadmill and power down myself.

Plus, they have to go outside too.

Quoting 267. rayduray2013:


There's something to what you say. However, when it comes to electronic wastes of energy, I'd look at some other culprits before attacking intelligent people seeking to increase their knowledge.

One example of profligate and unexamined waste is the process by which Bitcoins are "mined". This is a serious waste of energy.

Something else to ponder is that 6 to 8% of the electricity produced globally is used by TVs. More reality and less reality TV might be a good thing, eh? :)


Interesting discussion tonite.
I thank NCStorm for bringing to my attention that I can save a few dollars more than I thought and also save some CO2 in the process just by turning off the computer when not in use. For the most part it's been mainly snark as usual in response, but what else is neaux?
/

.
I'm likely the only one here who took some time to look into this point about bitcoin miners wasting CO2. First of all, that whole assumption is only true under any cost analysis if bitcoin proves to be ultimately worthless AND it leads to nothing similar to the blockchain concept...which is a reach to begin with.
.
.
Getting back to researching this one post in a thread....it speaks to how bitcoin miners are disrupting some electric company and their rates to customers, and possibly their credit rating on municipal bonds they offer. You can read the link yourself.
.
The electric company in question is the Chelan County, Washinton PUD. A small customer base, roughly 50,000 customers in central Washington. They do happen to operate one of the largest(2nd largest?) hydro-electric plants in the USA. They sell most of the vast electric power they produce. The bitcoin miners account for under 5%, and this issue is moot as local authorities have imposed restrictions, with excise fees next for the bitcoin miners. Their biggest customer by far and away in the county is ALCOA, operating an aluminum smelting plant and consuming electric power from the Chelan County PUD at favorable subsidized rates. Aluminum smelting is one of the most profligate CO2 emitters of all types of businesses.
Quoting 333. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's abridged selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment. Visit my blog for the full list in comment #1070



European summer heatwaves: Patterns blocking low pressure areas explored

NASA: Scientists Link Earlier Melting Of Snow To Dark Aerosols (video)

Scientists track monster waves below the ocean surface: New study provides insight on the formation and fate of internal waves
Thanks Bri ...
Quoting 353. JustDucky251:

This is cool. Just figured out how to blog on my new phone!

Heat index in Mobile today was 108.
Yesterday was 112.
Remember this feeling so well ... lol... still prefer the laptop to the phone or tablet, though ... something about the graphics.

Quoting 355. ncstorm:

There is no contradiction..I believe the Earth goes through natural cycles..I believe we as humans are impacting the Earth with putting big oil interests and lobbyists before our environment..EPA regulations fall through the cracks because of special interests..I'm all about the green energy movement but there is a cost as you even stated it was expensive..if you haven't noticed but working middle class families can't afford anymore taxation..You give me a solution where you don't tax my paycheck anymore than whats it already being taxed and middle and lower working class families can afford the green energy initiatives to curb our C02 emissions then you got someone ready to do her part..but until then..I see the GW push as another way to take more money away from working Americans..
The sad part about this is the anti-GW push is doing the same thing, by dragging the timeline on green energy initiatives that would POSITIVELY impact middle / lower class families. Right now the biggest anti-GW obstructions are across efforts at reducing oil dependence and lowering the cost of efficient non-fossil fuel energy sources. Someone posted earlier about Florida energy providers' efforts at preventing people from getting inexpensive solar, because that cuts into their bottom line. Meanwhile they as energy producers are not changing to solar, again due to short-term bottom line investments.

If most deniers were doing so out of genuine belief and concern for the well-being of the public, I would feel a lot better. Unfortunately quite a few of them are motivated by greed, selfishness, and, at best, fear about changes in the future.

Whatever the motivation, it seems the average guy gets the short end of the stick ...
Another significant SOI Crash is coming in 4 to 5 days. Maybe some -40's on the daily average. Could even reach -25 on the 30 day average by July's end. Notice the deep low pressures over FL in 5 days.

We either have to act big or start studying how the Dutch hold back the sea.
Quoting 365. Patrap:

The man who introduced us to climate change just issued a dire warning about sea levels in New York.
Robbie Couch By Robbie Couch

In 1988, James Hansen told Congress that climate change is real. Now, his new paper spells out why it's much worse than what we thought.
.....

Hansen agrees: We still hold the fate of our planet in our hands when it comes to climate change.
He said we %u201Ccould actually come in well under 2 degrees if we make the price of fossil fuels honest." That means taxing fossil fuel-burning businesses and governments, which will encourage eco-friendlier practices.
Even with his latest research painting a dire future ahead, if Hansen believes we can make a meaningful difference in the decades to come, we all should.

But we have to act big, and we have to act now.

Pat, I'm usually an optimist about things, but on this my pragmatic side is overruling my normal attitude. Frankly any big, now act is not going to happen, not if the US political and business leaders are expected to be at the helm ... saw a news story today that US legislators are busy voting to PREVENT people from knowing which foods have been genetically engineered .... designed, I suppose, to reduce packaging costs [and lawsuits?] for giant agribusiness entities. There is nothing going on in the US at that level to suggest that anything but "business as usual" in in the pipeline. Maybe some stronger efforts elsewhere in the world will lead to the change we need in our time ....
Quoting 368. ncstorm:



How about tax the heck out of big oil companies..they can afford it..there are working middle class families that are paying more taxes to the Govt than some of these billion dollar companies who get special tax breaks..
They pass the taxes on to you in increased oil prices. Everything gets more expensive. They lobby to have the taxes dropped. SOMEbody will take their money.

Same old same old.

I just realized how cynical about politics I am ....
Flash flood warnings into the wee hours. More than 2" of rain since 7 or 6 Trombones, and Mordecai.

Whoopie Ti Yi Yo
Quoting 373. JustDucky251:

We either have to act big or start studying how the Dutch hold back the sea.
Not just studying ... figuring out how to improve on their methods ...
Quoting 368. ncstorm:



How about tax the heck out of big oil companies..they can afford it..there are working middle class families that are paying more taxes to the Govt than some of these billion dollar companies who get special tax breaks..


Gradually, yes. The fee would incur cost onto big oil while at the same time putting money into the hands of all Americans. People use this fee collected from big oil to reinvest in low carbon alternatives.
Quoting 376. Barefootontherocks:

Flash flood warnings into the wee hours. More than 2" of rain since 7 or 6 Trombones, and Mordecai.

Whoopie Ti Yi Yo
Where?
Quoting 361. ncstorm:



So you love taxes?


A civilized society takes care and provides services to all its citizens - poor or rich. The only way to do that is with taxes. Do I love taxes, no. But it is better than the alternative.

Let's start here - A lot of our weather tools are funded with tax payer money...

I do like having police, fire, solid waste, roads, bridges, parks, potable water to name just a small sampling of things my tax dollars do.

There are a few places left with almost no taxes, but there are no services. Alas, you will still pay Federal taxes for the good of the nation. And just so you don't take this out of context, I don't believe in OVER taxation either.
381. vis0
Quoting 270. Patrap:

Now I'm confused...




Simpl e the same SAT imagery IF POSSIBLE (i know SATs did not exist then(only for in club members at WxUs tree house), why i added IF) from 100 yrs ago compared to this SAT loop. It might read as::

 "Earth:: healthy vibrant understandable through basic science.

The NOW panel read:: "EARTH:: On CO2 ... (imagery showing extreme range of weather all in shorter time periods flashing on the screen)    ...don't (let Earth) do drugs."

The operative word is IN A SHORTER TIME period.
Sure we had major floods in the past but usually it was Grandpa telling us how that happened.

Now Grandpa, his daughter, the grandchild & great grandchild all sharing how they EACH went through 1000 yr floods during their childhood.

BTW Grandpa lowers his hearing aide when great grandchild asks him "why didn't he support the lowering of co2 emissions?"

Granpa replies:: "WHAT SONNY?!" "C-Si-Co2" ...is that the new Crime Scene Investigation series based on Colorado Crime division??? or are you trying to say in a weird Spanish-English combo using correct pronouns "that it's you"

 ...SI, SI, ES i  vs.  Si Si Es me

yes yes Pablosyn i know the correct way is,  Si Si Soy bean.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 1040 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEDFORD OR - KMFR 828 PM PDT TUE JUL 21 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1019 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 1004 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 1059 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 1043 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 1001 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 952 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SACRAMENTO CA - KSTO 632 PM PDT TUE JUL 21 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 929 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 816 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 907 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 803 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2015
Quoting 368. ncstorm:



How about tax the heck out of big oil companies..they can afford it..there are working middle class families that are paying more taxes to the Govt than some of these billion dollar companies who get special tax breaks..
I can't help thinking how many bridges and levees all that tax money would pay for, not to mention school repairs, wetlands recuperation etc. if oil companies paid the same percentage of taxes as the average $40,000 dollar a year family head / homeowner .... okay, dream world ...

I am going to BED ... can't believe I'm still up ... lol ...
G'nite!
Quoting 377. BahaHurican:

Not just studying ... figuring out how to improve on their methods ...


I agree that is likely too late for political action. We will simply have to adjust to the new reality. If it took the Greeks and the EU as long as it did to agree on something that was a logical foregone conclusion, how can we expect action on more complex issues?
Baha, Oklahoma.

Quoting 322. Barefootontherocks:



Big BOOMers overhead. Where are the Sooners? I guess they left the room.


You might want to Iisten to Woodie Guthrie (376) if you didn't. Great rendition... Whoopie Ti Yi Oh...
FL needs to be on guard this weekend. Could have our next named system in 5 to 7 days.

Hello Danny. Scott 1 Blog 0. As usual.

Quoting 387. StormTrackerScott:

Hello Danny. Scott 1 Blog 0. As usual.




You can't tally a score when you're basing it off of a forecast from a model run.
Quoting 367. txjac:

@ 363. TropicalAnalystwx13
I hope that you pup makes a full recovery. I wish I could give the guy that is having such a bad night (and probably many more to come) a hug. I know what that feels like. My animals are now my family since my kids have moved out. Give your pup a cuddle from me


I know what it's like to lose a family pet. My dog drowned the day before I got home for winter break in December. Dad thinks he suicided because we were planning on putting him down in two weeks due to old age and crippling arthritis. Mom doesn't buy that...but my cousins' dog ran away and didn't come back, he was old as well and had free range of the property.

Well wishes to your beagle, Cody.
390. vis0

Quoting 355. ncstorm:

There is no contradiction..I believe the Earth goes through natural cycles..I believe we as humans are impacting the Earth with putting big oil interests and lobbyists before our environment..EPA regulations fall through the cracks because of special interests..I'm all about the green energy movement but there is a cost as you even stated it was expensive..if you haven't noticed but working middle class families can't afford anymore taxation..You give me a solution where you don't tax my paycheck anymore than whats it already being taxed and middle and lower working class families can afford the green energy initiatives to curb our C02 emissions then you got someone ready to do her part..but until then..I see the GW push as another way to take more money away from working Americans..
REPLY to this comment at my zilly page cmmnt#11,  ITS includes An animation gif...

WHERE is LAbonbon? did LAbonbon lock herself IN THE CAR AGAIN?** or was that wxu members meeting of the minds food too filling.

***BTW i did that as a kid,  also as a kid spent 20 minutes asking adults which key on the key chain that had the ignition key, opened the car trunk duh, ...i was only 9...what was i doing with car keys?? HEY!,  i left mt splicing pliers at home in my TONKA TOYS BOX so i couldn't hot wire the car.
Quoting 298. tampabaymatt:



You don't see anything hypocritical about every single post someone makes being about how bad GW is and how the only solution is to stop using fossil fuels, yet they use fossil fuels just like the rest of us?


My power comes from 100% renewables. The only thing using fossil fuels is my car (a Prius). I'd go electric but 1) my job is too far away to make the low end ones reliable in winter and 2) I can't afford a Tesla. :P

Regardless, your trying to shoot the messenger based on the fact that he drove instead of walked. It is 100% irrelevant to the discussion of the science and the results of that science.
Quoting 386. StormTrackerScott:

FL needs to be on guard this weekend. Could have our next named system in 5 to 7 days.


Quoting 307. hydrus:

This is true..There are two systems Halola and 99E, but they are not receiving much attention for the time being..Suffice it to say, 99E looks very unorganized..




Someone please just fabricate a system I'll read it intensely and believe every word of it.
Quoting 358. Naga5000:



So your rejection comes because you don't like taxes?

There is nothing to say. I'm sorry you feel that way. I gladly pay my taxes and would pay more if it meant real help, but I have never thought a carbon tax was a good solution unless you could prevent it from being passed onto consumers.I hope all that money will serve you well when last minute mitigation policy is enacted and the cost of that will far outweigh any money saved from inaction in the short term. I hope you find solace in it. I really do.


Rejecting science on ideological grounds? Good idea, since that has worked out so well for us in the past.

Capitalism: Lining our wallets at the expense of our children's future. Catchy. I like it.
I usually stay out of the GW type debates here, but this discussion compels me to comment. So, I emerge from lurking.

The assumption that all GW supporters aren't "doing their part" is not accurate in the least. Some of us walk the walk, and talk the talk. For example, I have listed some (note not all) the things I do to reduce my carbon footprint. Are there areas I can improve? Absolutely! I try to find new ways all the time. The fact of the matter is when I'm old and gray, there will come a time when the younger generation will ask me what I did to stop climate change. I want to answer with a straight face "everything I could possibly do and still live a normal life." I'm not proposing we stop the economy as we know it to fix climate change. However, I do believe it is every persons duty to pursue and achieve all the CO2 reductions possible in their life. It's about personal responsibility.

1 car household (husband takes public transit to work)
Apt. is hydroelectric powered
35+ mpg car (can't afford a hybrid, but I do what I can)
Turn off laptop after use (don't have desktop)
Don't have chargers plugged in unless in use (including phone, tablets etc.)
Repair my computer (and other electronics) rather than replace it every 2 years
My washer/dryer/fridge/water heater/shower are all energy efficient models
Recycle all items I can (including electronics)
Compost all food items (seriously, we produce less than one bag of trash every other week)
Purchase used goods instead of new (goodwill is my friend!)
Eat locally - less transit CO2 emissions
Eat seasonally (ie don't buy watermelon in December)- again less CO2 emissions
Reduce meat consumption - eat meat 2-3x/week - because methane matters too
My 800 sq ft. apt - green building - w/o air conditioning
Walk to do local errands like groceries/doctors/pharmacy etc. (and I'm disabled to boot!)
I voluntarily pay extra to my utility to support green initiatives
I car pool or take the train when travelling instead of flying whenever possible

I'm not typing this to be high and mighty, but to assume that no one is doing anything is absurd. Some of us actually care enough to get off our butts and do something. To think that anyone could somehow try minimize the seriousness of climate change just because an individual doesn't turn off his or her computer makes me sad.

It's late, and time for sleep. For now I'll return to lurking until weather happens in Seattle again...
Nhc mention maybe by end of the day or tomorrow definitely.
399. vis0
NYC brown pout Manhattan few secs
Quoting 348. Astrometeor:



I don't think I am good looking enough or socially capable of being in a reality show about weathermen/women. :(


I'd totally do it. I could totally ad-lib climactobabble and make it sound good. Plus I have all kinds of crazy stories in my head.
Quoting 367. txjac:

@ 363. TropicalAnalystwx13
I hope that you pup makes a full recovery. I wish I could give the guy that is having such a bad night (and probably many more to come) a hug. I know what that feels like. My animals are now my family since my kids have moved out. Give your pup a cuddle from me


And after what our poultry went through a couple weeks ago - I'd hit my own tippig point. No longer "live and let live" about the climate issue.
Here's a picture of Seymours, Long Island, The Bahamas.



The white building on the left is the community church. The blue house at the right lost much of its roof during Irene. This northern end of the island is quite hilly, and thus more prone to wind damage than points south. In central Long Island, flooding from storm surge and high rain rates is more common.
403. vis0
wetherman? now i still use the word cameraman cause i am both but does the title imply a guy going to win?
Quoting 245. georgevandenberghe:



Maybe we should handle this through legal channels. Remember you don't have to have insurance to be sued!
Find these pilots or their organizations and recover damages.


A word of warning about the drone thing we were talking about a bit yesterday after the incident in the California wild-fire, which I copied a quote about from a UK article.

"The warnings from the CAA and pilots follow growing concern at the safety impact of drones worldwide. Fire-fighters in California said last week that lives were put at risk when helicopters could not douse forest fires because of hobby drone pilots flying devices above the fires."

Below is the link I found in a UK newspaper showing how much drone use is increasing in the UK.

Link
Weather Forecasting Enters a New Era

Solar power was the fastest-growing form of electricity generation in the United States in 2014. As renewable energy continues to expand, demand is growing for a better way to predict just how much power from these intermittent sources will be available for the grid.

IBM shared new details last week on its program to harness powerful computers to forecast weather and other factors that determine the output of solar and wind installations. Using machine learning and advanced data analytics, IBM is making an aggressive push to give utilities, plant managers, and grid operators clearer guidance on what their arrays will put out today, tomorrow, next week, and even months from now.Link
406. vis0
 
Quoting 131. schistkicker:



As one of those "lurkers", I don't think I was
ever asked why I came to this page. Was there a detailed user survey
and I missed it? What/who does one need to contact in order to be part
of the "real community" here, whatever that is? Is there electricity in
the Wunderground clubhouse tree? I'm not interested unless there's cold
drinks involved.


Quoting 147. washingtonian115:

I heard that they gave away free cookies too and I still haven't received mines! I'm throwing in the towel!

my zilly reply on zilly pg on lucky cmmnt#13

STAY TUNED TO NOAA RADIO FOR flooding or other watches & warnings
WOW!!!!! C FL is in for a serious soaking. Tampa to Orlando get your boats ready as you may need them as a form of transportation.

I agree. Win-win solution.

Quoting 331. Dakster:

I think we need a weather blog and a climate change blog. I like talking about both, but they are currently going together like oil and water.
Outstanding piece. Thank you are two small words for the extraordinary efforts to bring this to all of us, but thank you is what it is. I am grateful and will share it with my fellows and families here in Brevard County Florida. Amazing.
/Barb
00Z Euro for next Friday Saturday.......................................... ......
well for now both the euro and gfs form something in the southeast atlantic in about 6-7 days and move whatever up the southeast coastline...run to run models change,but right now something just to watch.
Quoting 387. StormTrackerScott:

Hello Danny. Scott 1 Blog 0. As usual.




If it happens are you right or is the model right?
Quoting 417. rmbjoe1954:



I agree. However what would be the alternative. I do suggest one constitutional amendment that would allow only taxpayers, military vets,retired and other pensioners be the only ones eligible to vote to see how their taxes are spent overall.
Seeing that the taxpayer base has diminished in the USA and many are on social safety net I think that would be most appropriate this day and age. Universal suffrage was OK when the great majority worked and/or paid taxes.

Now the weather- I see Florida is in for a good soaking- but again the Keys and coastal SE Fl areas may not benefit.



When was the last time we've seen a rain max of 7.4" over FL. I don't think we have since late last year.
Quoting 417. rmbjoe1954:



I agree. However what would be the alternative. I do suggest one constitutional amendment that would allow only taxpayers, military vets,retired and other pensioners be the only ones eligible to vote to see how their taxes are spent overall.
Seeing that the taxpayer base has diminished in the USA and many are on social safety net I think that would be most appropriate this day and age. Universal suffrage was OK when the great majority worked and/or paid taxes.

Now the weather- I see Florida is in for a good soaking- but again the Keys and coastal SE Fl areas may not benefit.


That would be a good start.
Seen a couple of cases this year near FL where systems have formed under upper lows. Could be the case this time around and notice its anchored over FL. This could end up being a very significant rain event for primarily C FL it appears as a trough stalls overhead.

Time to switch from El-Nino mode to Hurricane mode as I suspect we may have some mischief near FL come late weekend.
Quoting 417. rmbjoe1954:



I agree. However what would be the alternative. I do suggest one constitutional amendment that would allow only taxpayers, military vets,retired and other pensioners be the only ones eligible to vote to see how their taxes are spent overall.
Seeing that the taxpayer base has diminished in the USA and many are on social safety net I think that would be most appropriate this day and age. Universal suffrage was OK when the great majority worked and/or paid taxes.


History will unlock the mysteries of which you speak. I recommend doing a little research on communities/states/nations/empires that experiment with only allowing a certain portion of the population to vote.

Learn from history, lest be doomed to repeat it.

Quoting 419. StormTrackerScott:



When was the last time we've seen a rain max of 7.4" over FL. I don't think we have since late last year.


And what's with that strange arcing of rain being forecast? I'm used to seeing arcs with a southern bend, rather than one towards the north.
still astonishing models show nothing in the MDR up to early August. i remember 2009 showed pre bill going into the gulf as a major hurricane. waiting to see if models latch on to a system in the deep tropics.
Quoting 426. wunderweatherman123:

still astonishing models show nothing in the MDR up to early August. i remember 2009 showed pre bill going into the gulf as a major hurricane. waiting to see if models latch on to a system in the deep tropics.



the MDR is not going too be the place this year it is closed not sure how many time we have too telling you guys this the fun will be closer too home this year and that is the way it is going too be
Quoting 407. StormTrackerScott:

WOW!!!!! C FL is in for a serious soaking. Tampa to Orlando get your boats ready as you may need them as a form of transportation.


you know i love following your charts and graphs and predictions as well as the whole gang here but everytime those charts and graphs show all this record breaking rain it seems to fizzle and we may get 1 or 2 inches but it does feel extra sticky and tropical around here these days?????
Quoting 377. BahaHurican:

Not just studying ... figuring out how to improve on their methods ...

Better improve.
We, the Dutch, will lose the country by the end of this century thanks to the WAIS. Not because we won't be able to keep out the sea, but because we'll no longer be able to push out the river water in the delta we live on.
I'm literally sitting on my hands waiting for our turn of the 'Milleniumfloods' (like Elbe and Donau already had twice with only eleven years apart). It 'll displace about three million people.
Good Morning. On the tropical end, the Atlantic is clear this morning (including the ULL near the Yucatan which has not been able to work down or generate any convective activity) and an invest in the E-Pac that is struggling with dry air/cooler ssts to the West. NHC is predicting possible TD formation and dissipation thereafter by Friday.


Quoting 417. rmbjoe1954:



I agree. However what would be the alternative. I do suggest one constitutional amendment that would allow only taxpayers, military vets,retired and other pensioners be the only ones eligible to vote to see how their taxes are spent overall.
Seeing that the taxpayer base has diminished in the USA and many are on social safety net I think that would be most appropriate this day and age. Universal suffrage was OK when the great majority worked and/or paid taxes.

Now the weather- I see Florida is in for a good soaking- but again the Keys and coastal SE Fl areas may not benefit.



"It is income, not age, that determines when you can stop paying federal income taxes." Link
And don't forget property tax, sales tax, capital gains tax. On and on, so even those "on the dole" pay taxes on their food that they get the help to buy. The constitution started as one man one vote (3/5 of a man if you were black and no women). That has been amended over the years but never to restrict self determination, the foundation of the United States.
Quoting 426. wunderweatherman123:

still astonishing models show nothing in the MDR up to early August. i remember 2009 showed pre bill going into the gulf as a major hurricane. waiting to see if models latch on to a system in the deep tropics.


Not astonishing; the average of Atlantic storms for the June-July period is 1.7 storms............This current period usually has a lull until we get to mid-August when the wave activity picks up off of Africa and trofs start moving across Conus. I doubt that we will have much activity in the Atlantic over the next few weeks.
In terms of Conus today, a marginal risk of t-storms across the board. 



The most interesting feature out there is the heavily sheared trof off of the US East Coast. 







And here is the relative position of the US jet shearing the area off the coast:

Nothing on the Outer Banks scare.......






Link
Quoting 387. StormTrackerScott:

Hello Danny. Scott 1 Blog 0. As usual.


LMAO! Don't try to hype yourself Scott.People have been known that development was possible on this blog since this past weekend.Accuweather was way ahead of you matter of fact.
Quoting 419. StormTrackerScott:



When was the last time we've seen a rain max of 7.4" over FL. I don't think we have since late last year.


Fay?
It's definitely something of a stretch to call what the 06z GFS is portraying as Danny (what was on the 00z GFS definitely was Danny, but the 06z dropped the scenario), but I strongly suspect we're going to have to watch out for another trough split scenario off the US East Coast next week as the pattern is highly favorable for such developments. The ECMWF supports this scenario in 9-10 days with a trough split developing into a moderate tropical storm. This season, once again, reminds me of 1997 where we had the bulk of activity in June and July from non-tropical developments. 1997 basically shut off for the entire month of August before Major Hurricane Erika developed in September.

Quoting 422. StormTrackerScott:

Time to switch from El-Nino mode to Hurricane mode as I suspect we may have some mischief near FL come late weekend.


This is a strange rainy season in Florida. It does appear the greatest rain chances for this weekend are north of me. I don't know if that High in the GOM will have negative affect on rain chances in coastal EastCentral FL.
Good Morning..

I think its pretty clear where this potential disturbance is going to end up on the SE coast..will return later..work calls

06z run
Perfect trough split scenarios, remains to be seen if we get two systems out of this. One develops off the Southeast coast and moves northeast and the other one develops in the northeastern Gulf. FIM is also showing the scenario just like the GFS and ECMWF.



Quoting 442. ncstorm:

Good Morning..

I think its pretty clear where this potential disturbance is going to end up on the SE coast..will return later..work calls

06z run

Good morning NC....Indeed, the tropics have been rather slow, but the Carolinas have seen most of the action in the U.S...
Hurricane Mode?

: P

Quoting 433. weathermanwannabe:



Not astonishing; the average of Atlantic storms for the June-July period is 1.7 storms............This current period usually has a lull until we get to mid-August when the wave activity picks up off of Africa and trofs start moving across Conus. I doubt that we will have much activity in the Atlantic over the next few weeks.
Greetings..Something tells me that the usual trends may not apply this year, even with a strong Nino.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 397. Seattleite:

To think that anyone could somehow try minimize the seriousness of climate change just because an individual doesn't turn off his or her computer makes me sad.




I have decided not to be sad, but to take full advantage of this kind of argument (that you are rebutting). The next time I see my doc and she points out the weight that I have gained and that my cholesterol is up, and suggests that my daily ice cream is doing me harm, I will point out that she occasionally eats ice cream herself, and therefore she is clearly wrong that ice cream could be bad for me and that I can therefore eat a 1/2 gallon of Ben and Jerry's every night!

Because, clearly, evidence of harms of ice cream excess is refuted by her (occasional) behavior.

And I am sure there are plenty of other instances where I can apply this line of reasoning... But now I must go shop for a whole new wardrobe in larger sizes.
Quoting 419. StormTrackerScott:



When was the last time we've seen a rain max of 7.4" over FL. I don't think we have since late last year.


My guess it will rain like crazy over Seminole county. Elsewhere will be half the prediction or less.
Quoting 447. Patrap:

Hurricane Mode?

: P




Ha!
Kangaroos romp in frosty wonderland amid abnormally cold, snowy winter in Australia in July 2015.

It’s winter in Australia so it’s not surprising that it’s cold and snowy — at least not in New South Wales. But last week also brought an icy cold snap to Queensland, otherwise known as Australia’s “sunshine state.” Areas around Stanthorpe and Eukey in the Granite Belt saw over three inches of snow, which makes it the whitest winter in the region since 1984.

“We haven’t seen snow like this in 30 years,” the Bureau of Meteorology’s Jess Carey told the Telegraph. “People talk about the 1984 event – it really is the most significant since then.”

The wintry blast delivered overnight lows around 45 degrees to Sydney — the coldest July temperatures the location has seen since 1971, reports the Telegraph.

Another round of wintry weather is in the forecast for eastern Australia early next week. A cold, Antarctic airmass as much as 15 degrees below normal will push north across Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland through Wednesday. Overnight lows in Sydney are expected to sink into the low 40s on Monday and Tuesday. The ski areas in southern New South Wales and Victoria could see as much as 15 inches of fresh snow by mid-week.