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Typhoon Nangka Brings Torrential Rains to Japan

By: Bob Henson 7:11 PM GMT on July 16, 2015

Extreme rainfall is dousing much of Japan in the wake of Typhoon Nangka, which made landfall at 11:07 pm Thursday local time (10:07 am EDT Thursday) near Muroto City, on the south coast of the island of Shikoku. Nangka came ashore as a minimal typhoon, with sustained winds of just 75 mph. However, its shield of rich moisture is colliding with Japan’s mountains and a preexisting stationary front, making floods and mudslides the main hazard to contend with. At least two deaths have been reported from Nangka thus far. Radar-estimated rainfall rates are topping 3”/hour in some locations, and a total of 521 millimeters (20.51”) had fallen by late Thursday at the village of Kamikitayama, south of Osaka. Up to three feet of rain could fall in some locations, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Nangka’s trek over the Japanese mountains will leave it in a weakened state as it arcs northeastward as a tropical storm. A second landfall—perhaps as a weak tropical storm or depression--is possible in northern Japan on Sunday morning local time, as Nangka recurves sharply toward the east. This path will keep much of Japan in the southeastern quadrant of the storm, with rains pushing into the northern islands of Honshu and Hokkaido, although the amounts should decrease as Nangka weakens. “Sediment disaster alerts” for potential mudslides are in effect along the south coast of Japan, including the Tokyo region. For more on Nangka, including precipitation outlooks by region, see the detailed weather.com post by Nick Wiltgen and Jon Erdman. At the bottom of this post is an animated loop of Nangka’s approach to Japan as captured by Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite.

On the heels of Nangka is Tropical Storm Halola, now located about 170 miles west-southwest of Wake Island. Halola has weakened over the last 12 – 24 hours, thanks to moderate westerly shear (15 – 20 mph), but conditions will support restrengthening as Halola begins bending around a strong ridge to its north and wind shear decreases. There is model disagreement over Halola’s eventual track next week: the 0000 GMT Thursday run of the ECWMF model keeps Halola moving westward to Japan’s latitude, while the last several GFS runs have consistently recurved Halola before it has a chance to threaten Japan. There is plenty of time for track forecasts to evolve over the next few days.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Enrique (left) and Hurricane Dolores (right), as of 1830 GMT (2:30 pm EDT) on Thursday, July 16. Image credit: NOAA.

Dolores to send moisture into southwest U.S.
Hurricane Dolores continues churning through the Northeast Pacific as a Category 3 storm. At 11:00 am EDT, the center of Dolores was located about 240 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Peak sustained winds were just above the Cat. 3 threshold, at 115 mph. Dolores is moving steadily northwest at about 7 mph. As it encounters colder waters and greater wind shear, Dolores should begin to weaken by Friday, if not sooner.

Dolores’s southern (weaker) eyewall passed over tiny Socorro Island, about 370 miles west of Mexico’s west coast, on Wednesday. According to weather.com, an automated weather station reported winds of 80 mph, with gusts to 114 mph. There were no immediate reports of damage from the island, which hosts a small naval station. Officers there could be excused for some nervousness during a major El Niño event. In September 1997, during the onset of the last El Niño that was comparable in strength to the current one, Category 5 Hurricane Linda became the Northeast Pacific’s strongest tropical cyclone on record. Linda passed just south of Socorro Island (the only land area affected by the storm), putting the island in its northern eyewall while packing winds of 150 knots (more than 170 mph) and a central pressure of 905 mph. Some damage to meteorological equipment was reported.

Models are now in general agreement that Dolores will continue moving west-northwest and weaken before it has a chance to recurve toward the Pacific coast (although I would not be surprised if the cyclone holds together longer than usual for such a system). A moisture plume now extending from Dolores across southern Baja California is expected to push into the southwest U.S. by this weekend. Precipitable water—the amount of moisture above a given spot—is projected to climb as high as 2” over the lower Colorado Valley by Friday night. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for a slight chance of rainfall exceeding the local flash flood guidance values across central Arizona on Friday and Saturday.

Further west, Tropical Storm Enrique is doggedly clinging to life. Although little convection is evident, RapidScat data from the International Space Station continues to indicate tropical storm force winds, according to the National Hurricane Center. NHC projects Enrique to become a depression by Thursday night and a remnant low by Friday night.

Bob Henson



Video 1. Infrared imagery from Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite shows the evolution of Typhoon Nangka as it makes landfall on Japan’s south coast. Image credit: NWS Ocean Prediction Center, via #GRPG.





The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the Update Mr. Henson...
Thank You Mr. Henson. The Nangka rains (3 feet in some places) will certainly cause some major problems; I am certain that the Japanese authorities (which have good resources in place in light of their history as to natural disasters) are addressing the issues with potential temporary inland evacs related to areas/villages prone to mud/land-slide and flooding issues. In terms of the remnants of Delores, it will not provide much of a dent, but many folks in the SW US will welcome whatever rain this systems brings their way.  Too bad the remnants will not make it up to Southern Cali.

Current U.S. Drought Monitor
Some early models had it recurving back into the LA area. Don't give up hope yet.

Quoting 2. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Mr. Henson. The Nangka rains (3 feet in some places) will certainly cause some major problems; I am certain that the Japanese authorities (which have good resources in place in light of their history as to natural disasters) are addressing the issues with potential temporary inland evacs related to areas/villages prone to mud/land-slide and flooding issues. In terms of the remnants of Delores, it will not provide much of a dent, but many folks in the SW US will welcome whatever rain this systems brings their way.  Too bad the remnants will not make it up to Southern Cali.


Thank you.
Quoting 3. LAGotNoWeather:

Some early models had it recurving back into the LA area. Don't give up hope yet.




I hope so; the drought is very bad there. Absent some tropical relief, it would be really bad to have to wait until the Winter for Sierras snow pack to replenish the reserviors that serve the cities and ag areas in that region.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago
30-day-avg shear in the Caribbean (6/16-7/15) is 26 m/s in 2015. This is 6 m/s higher than any other year since 1979
Up to three feet of rain in some places? Wow! Current radar of Nangka:



good read thanks for update bob
keeper..these storms sitting off the coast of florida are spinning,could a LOW be trying to form??...
if you look closely at the storms close to Tampa bay, can you see the spin?................
Day 9 of no rain here in Sanford. UGH!! Will have to run the sprinklers tonite as the grass is starting to wilt.
Quoting 11. LargoFl:

keeper..these storms sitting off the coast of florida are spinning,could a LOW be trying to form??...


We got 2.5 inches in an hour this morning and since Tuesday we've gotten about 6 or 7 inches so theres gotta be something keeping em there :P
Nice tropical wave but it'll be meeting a horrible fate soon.
Quoting 17. washingtonian115:

Nice tropical wave but it'll be meeting a horrible fate soon.
anti hurricane forecaster you
All that convection on the west coast of Florida is not related to a low;
it's a stationary front situation (the front came through North Florida
last evening):

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
215 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015
...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHILE A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR THE FL/GA BORDERS. WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH A DEEP
LAYERED SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL
TRANSITION TO INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE
(PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RELATIVELY MILD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (-6 TO -7C) SHOULD KEEP THE
THREAT FOR HAIL/SEVERE STORMS ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT SOME ISOLATED
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG THE COAST (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S) DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
A STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUT
EXTENDING TO NORTH FL AND A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
KEEP PERSISTENT CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ON THE SURFACE
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT
IS OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN CREATES A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE STATE. THE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT ON MONDAY THE MOISTURE DECREASES SOME AND
SO DOES THE PERSISTENCE OF RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY. COASTAL SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE
MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS WHILE
MOVING INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DURING THE DAY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL IN COASTAL AREAS.

This is a surface chart from HPC.

Here is the high pressure ridge centered over TX sagging into North Florida:

Quoting 15. sanflee76:

Day 9 of no rain here in Sanford. UGH!! Will have to run the sprinklers tonite as the grass is starting to wilt.

I'm in Sanford too, got a quick shower yesterday and today.
please send rain to NE Fla

okthxbai


Finally some rain here in South Sound :))


It's a possibility the TW might survive!
Quoting 27. stormpetrol:



It's a possibility the TW might survive!


At least for a couple of minutes
Quoting 28. JrWeathermanFL:



At least for a couple of minutes


you're probably right! :)
Quoting 16. JrWeathermanFL:



We got 2.5 inches in an hour this morning and since Tuesday we've gotten about 6 or 7 inches so theres gotta be something keeping em there :P


I got 2.34" here at my house just S.E. of Fort Myers today. It also just started pouring again.
Interesting.
Quoting 12. LargoFl:

if you look closely at the storms close to Tampa bay, can you see the spin?................



No... the only I spin I see is from too many drinks. There is clearly a NW to SE movement in semi-organized lines, with the northern cluster of storms dying off and their probable outflow creating a new line of storms.
LOL
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 3h3 hours ago
Several ENSO forecast models predicting ~3.0C Nino 3.4 anomalies for the October-December period.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 2h2 hours ago
@philklotzbach go Jurassic go! :)
ok so what happened to all the rain for Largo/Clearwater?

It rained at work this morning for a little bit and then every piece of rain that was headed this way since fell apart. With all the rain in the area, we only received .14 inches on the day
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
236 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2015

CAZ071>073-NVZ001>003-162230-
GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA CA-LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-
EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES CA-MONO CA-
MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES NV-GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-
MINDEN AREA NV-GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA NV-
236 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 232 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING MULTIPLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. THESE
STORMS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY.

STORMS COULD CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, ROCKSLIDES AND
FLASH FLOODING. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARSON CITY...SOUTH LAKE TAHOE...MAMMOTH LAKES...CHALFANT...
SIERRAVILLE...BENTON...JUNE LAKE...TAHOE CITY...TWIN LAKES...STAMPEDE
RESERVOIR...LEE VINING...TOMS PLACE...BRIDGEPORT...PROSSER CREEK
RESERVOIR...SONORA PASS...SQUAW VALLEY...BODIE...CROWLEY LAKE...
ALPINE MEADOWS AND KINGS BEACH.
Facebook video from Sorroco Island as Dolores passed by:

Link

Looks like things got pretty intense.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
258 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ASIDE FROM PATCHY COASTAL DRIZZLE IN THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 PM PDT THURSDAY...SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW
BRING THE LEFTOVERS OF DOLORES NEAR PT CONCEPTION TO BIG SUR
COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS WOULD VERIFY AS IS...RAIN AND
THUNDER SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE...RAMPED UP PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR POPS/QPF. WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
Quoting 27. stormpetrol:



It's a possibility the TW might survive!


It could probably pull a Chantal.But she formed further east and was moving at record Speed (31mph) lol.
Heavy downpours going on right now here on the space coast, 3rd day of big boomers, more to come into the weekend, about time! :)
Quoting 38. Hurricanes101:

ok so what happened to all the rain for Largo/Clearwater?

It rained at work this morning for a little bit and then every piece of rain that was headed this way since fell apart. With all the rain in the area, we only received .14 inches on the day


It all came to Sarasota.
The central Atlantic tropical wave is located inside a favorable upper level environment, as noted by the fanning out of the winds around the wave.
Quoting 5. weathermanwannabe:



I hope so; the drought is very bad there. Absent some tropical relief, it would be really bad to have to wait until the Winter for Sierras snow pack to replenish the reserviors that serve the cities and ag areas in that region.


At the very least, an inch of rain would lessen the risk of a bad fire season
Quoting 16. JrWeathermanFL:



We got 2.5 inches in an hour this morning and since Tuesday we've gotten about 6 or 7 inches so theres gotta be something keeping em there :P


Today was weird, numerous bands of heavy rain moving onshore everywhere today accept Central and southern Pinellas, I only got 0.23 today from just on and off light to moderate convective debris rains. About 4-5 rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms would race towards this area and fall apart just before reaching the coast line here, and I have no idea why.

Normally, we would have gotten 2-3 inch out of this, like most areas did this close to the coast, in fact this is one of the most reliable patterns for a major rain event locally at my place. Amazingly, the rainfall could possibly be even heavier the next couple days. Some places might just get more than 10 inches for a 3 day total, as the Euro suggested.

Today had more numerous thunderstorms for supposed 50%, hopefully convection will have better inland penetration the next couple days and won't "rob" Central and southern Pinellas either. I'm not sure why activity struggled to make much inland penetration, maybe it's because convection got too numerous before any heating got going, and so convective stabilization was maximized away from the areas really close to the beach.
If I'm not mistaken, there's a hint of a weak ULAC over that T-wave out there, giving it some respite from the shear all around it. It's also had some convergence/divergence that has continued to power convection, and for once SAL is no worse than average so it hasn't totally dried up. Very little "substance" to it though in terms of vorticity, and the mighty hand of El Nino (50kts of shear) stands ahead of it, so it'll be tough sledding... even in an active year this is still pretty early to be looking out there.

and a nice burst of convection atl. t.w
Quoting 38. Hurricanes101:

ok so what happened to all the rain for Largo/Clearwater?

It rained at work this morning for a little bit and then every piece of rain that was headed this way since fell apart. With all the rain in the area, we only received .14 inches on the day




i took it you cant have it
Hey guys been out most of the day

With the Royal Marines and Royal Navy personnel
Doing training and community work

I have been silently lurking a few times today when I had access to Internet

Keeping an eye on that tropical waves in the central Atlantic could possibly develop conditions not perfect but I've seen worst
Oh also new low added to 18Z sfc charts where our central Atlantic AOI is
Quoting 47. tiggerhurricanes2001:

The central Atlantic tropical wave is located inside a favorable upper level environment, as noted by the fanning out of the winds around the wave.


No experts are paying attention to it.
Quoting 57. FOREX:



No experts are paying attention to it.


Umm yes they are

But before we all go gun ho with it we need more model data
Quoting 58. wunderkidcayman:



Umm yes they are

But before we all go gun ho with it we need more model data
Quoting 58. wunderkidcayman:



Umm yes they are

But before we all go gun ho with it we need more model data


Not even Bastardi is talking about it. It is a non issue.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing a large area
of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected
to be marginally conducive for some slow development of this
disturbance through the weekend, with upper-level winds becoming
less favorable early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
North of PR but i hope it gets closer.
Quoting 24. chays:


I'm in Sanford too, got a quick shower yesterday and today.

I live right by Lake Jesup at the northwest corner and we have gotten just a trace of rain in the past 9 days. I have no idea what's going on but all the storms just dissipate when they get to my area. And last week we had a storm just to our west that traversed north to south for an hour. We got lightning and thunder and wind but just a few fat rain drops. Maybe the lake and swamp/forest have something to do with it. I can't figure anything else out.
AL, 93, 2015071700, , BEST, 0, 100N, 355W, 25, 1011, WV
Quoting 63. sanflee76:


I live right by Lake Jesup at the northwest corner and we have gotten just a trace of rain in the past 9 days. I have no idea what's going on but all the storms just dissipate when they get to my area. And last week we had a storm just to our west that traversed north to south for an hour. We got lightning and thunder and wind but just a few fat rain drops. Maybe the lake and swamp/forest have something to do with it. I can't figure anything else out.


That happened to me much of last summer so I know how it feels, much of last summer, most of Central Florida had at least avera average to well above average rainfall in quite a few places, yet I had only 2.89 in June, 4.2 in July, and 5.67 in August, even though many areas had more than 10 inches for each of those months. Up until September, it was on pace to be in one of the top driest summers even here.

I finally had a really wet month in September here, although I moved back to Tallahassee for school so I wasn't here to experience it, but we had 15.87 in September which helped make up a bit. This June I had whopping 14.96, but I had only 1.8 up through the 11th of July and 1.8 fell in the first couple days, finally I've had rain the past 4 days, 0.87 Sunday, 0.03 Monday, 0.07 Tuesday, 0.81 yesterday, and 0.23 today. Still, I'm below average, but I strangely have dodged a lot of the heavier activity today with numerous cells falling apart just before reaching here.

With that said, my point is, convection rainfall distribution can be down right weird, so just know you're not alone, lol.
Quoting 57. FOREX:



No experts are paying attention to it.

Go to nhc.noaa.gov
Quoting 57. FOREX:



No experts are paying attention to it.

Go to nhc.noaa.gov
Quoting 50. Jedkins01:



Today was weird, numerous bands of heavy rain moving onshore everywhere today accept Central and southern Pinellas, I only got 0.23 today from just on and off light to moderate convective debris rains. About 4-5 rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms would race towards this area and fall apart just before reaching the coast line here, and I have no idea why.

Normally, we would have gotten 2-3 inch out of this, like most areas did this close to the coast, in fact this is one of the most reliable patterns for a major rain event locally at my place. Amazingly, the rainfall could possibly be even heavier the next couple days. Some places might just get more than 10 inches for a 3 day total, as the Euro suggested.

Today had more numerous thunderstorms for supposed 50%, hopefully convection will have better inland penetration the next couple days and won't "rob" Central and southern Pinellas either. I'm not sure why activity struggled to make much inland penetration, maybe it's because convection got too numerous before any heating got going, and so convective stabilization was maximized away from the areas really close to the beach.


I hear you. Once again, nothing here except today we did actually get a rain shower which yielded maybe 0.02" in the rain guage. I am beyond the point of being frustrated at this point though. Whatever happens, happens. We are not (yet) in a wet pattern here. Abnormally dry actually.
Quoting 63. sanflee76:


I live right by Lake Jesup at the northwest corner and we have gotten just a trace of rain in the past 9 days. I have no idea what's going on but all the storms just dissipate when they get to my area. And last week we had a storm just to our west that traversed north to south for an hour. We got lightning and thunder and wind but just a few fat rain drops. Maybe the lake and swamp/forest have something to do with it. I can't figure anything else out.

+ 1000
We have 93L! It's a safe bet that the islands will get rain from this tropical wave.I'm not saying anything further but interesting to note as another blogger has pointed out a ULAC has develop above the wave protecting it (for now) from the shear.
Quoting 54. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys been out most of the day

With the Royal Marines and Royal Navy personnel
Doing training and community work

I have been silently lurking a few times today when I had access to Internet

Keeping an eye on that tropical waves in the central Atlantic could possibly develop conditions not perfect but I've seen worst



I see the ship in the harbor on a 5 day exercise and training I read! Cool!
Quoting 64. Tazmanian:

AL, 93, 2015071700, , BEST, 0, 100N, 355W, 25, 1011, WV
lol
Quoting 71. GeoffreyWPB:




They are always too high.
PDS tornado warning in western IL. It went over or very close to Monmouth, IL.
Quoting 75. MAweatherboy1:

PDS tornado warning in western IL. It went over or very close to Monmouth, IL.


that cell is lying down 4 inches of rain under it ..
Quoting 68. HurrMichaelOrl:



I hear you. Once again, nothing here except today we did actually get a rain shower which yielded maybe 0.02" in the rain guage. I am beyond the point of being frustrated at this point though. Whatever happens, happens. We are not (yet) in a wet pattern here. Abnormally dry actually.


It's odd how this deep tropical westerly flow isn't yielding nearly as much for the eastern half of the state, my guess is that activity is getting too numerous too early, allowing rain cooled winds and high clouds to blow across the state before heating gets going. With even more moisture and convergence tomorrow, I'm expecting even higher coverage and even higher rain totals on the west coast of FL.

My hope for you guys over there is that maybe activity will take longer to get going after such an active day today, if that happens, enough heating could occur and allow the eastern half of the state to get more action tomorrow.

Some areas still managed a lot on the east coast today though like Melbourne, but they must have escaped most of the overcast and cooler air further north and west.
93L has about a 48 hour window within marginally favorable conditions before shear increases to over 40 knots and mid-level RH falls below 60%. SSTs are only expected to be around 26C throughout the new few days.
Quoting 27. stormpetrol:



It's a possibility the TW might survive!


Unlikely entering region very strong upper level winds. But its july :0)
are hurricane season over the Atlantic may vary march be over and done with

Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 Jul 15
The ECMWF also forecasts near-record high pressure over the Atlantic basin during August-October. #climate #ElNino

Link
Quoting 80. Tazmanian:

are hurricane season over the Atlantic may vary march be over and done with

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 Jul 15
The ECMWF also forecasts near-record high pressure over the Atlantic basin during August-October. #climate #ElNino


Good evening Tazaroo!!!!
Quoting 80. Tazmanian:

are hurricane season over the Atlantic may vary march be over and done with

Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 Jul 15
The ECMWF also forecasts near-record high pressure over the Atlantic basin during August-October. #climate #ElNino

Link
Atlantic is never really dead in any season.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 9h9 hours ago

Only coming out of the major 82-83, and going into the Super 97-98 El Nino event have we ever seen forcing like this.

Link
I see to it Captain Trough will make haste with this wave!
Quoting 44. washingtonian115:



It could probably pull a Chantal.But she formed further east and was moving at record Speed (31mph) lol.
Yea, and it will be going NW, which was different from Chantal's path.
In other words, Kaput!-Poof!
Quoting 60. GeoffreyWPB:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing a large area
of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected
to be marginally conducive for some slow development of this
disturbance through the weekend, with upper-level winds becoming
less favorable early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Quoting 72. stormpetrol:



I see the ship in the harbor on a 5 day exercise and training I read! Cool!


Yep

Hey looks like my feeling were correct now we have 93L

Keep close eyes
Quoting 47. tiggerhurricanes2001:

The central Atlantic tropical wave is located inside a favorable upper level environment, as noted by the fanning out of the winds around the wave.
It would be great if this made it to the Caribbean, even if it proceeded to cross the basin into the Pacific ... at least somebody would get some precipitation from it.
Quoting 89. BahaHurican:

It would be great if this made it to the Caribbean, even if it proceeded to cross the basin into the Pacific ... at least somebody would get some precipitation from it.

The islands really need it, the wave will at least bring a positive impact.
Quoting 60. GeoffreyWPB:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing a large area
of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected
to be marginally conducive for some slow development of this
disturbance through the weekend, with upper-level winds becoming
less favorable early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
See? Even the pros are bored with the Atlantic so far ... lol
Quoting 78. TropicalAnalystwx13:

93L has about a 48 hour window within marginally favorable conditions before shear increases to over 40 knots and mid-level RH falls below 60%. SSTs are only expected to be around 26C throughout the new few days.
Nevertheless, we will take what we can get and be thankful ... still hoping it will hold together long enough for the NE Caribbean to get a bit of rain ...
Quoting 87. hurricanewatcher61:

In other words, Kaput!-Poof!

Yeah, but that same "Marginally was used for Ana,Bill,and Claudette, and yet they still developed more substantially than predicted. Heck, they even lowered the development chances on Claudette, but she still developed. So don't be quick to put something off before it even occurs , because they can be quick to develop and can prove you wrong.
Off Twitter, an image of the Monmouth tornado. Hope the damage isn't too bad, but I'm sure there's some:

MJO powers, activate!

Lol
Anybody have the chart nearby? Trying to remember the average date for the 4th named storm ...
Ada usando tropicaltidbits!
Ada Monzón ‏@adamonzon 24m24 minutes ago
Primeras gráficas de nuevo Invest 93L (onda tropical de 35O) de http://tropicaltidbits.com
Quoting 96. BahaHurican:

Anybody have the chart nearby? Trying to remember the average date for the 4th named storm ...


August 23rd
Greetings.
So, a T-Wave is approaching. About time too ! :):))

In the meantime, 4 earthquakes just North-East of Barbados (biggest 6.4 mag.) today.
Everything's wonky, man.
Not gonna say I saw it first but......



I definitely didn't see it last :P

Definitely some....stuff... goin on out there
Quoting 95. BahaHurican:

MJO powers, activate!

Lol

I sure hope so. By August 30th,on average ,we should have 4 named storms,1 hurricane, 0 Majors.
Shields up?
Quoting 100. JrWeathermanFL:

Not gonna say I saw it first but......



I definitely didn't see it last :P

Definitely some....stuff... goin on out there
ITCZ?
Quoting 94. MAweatherboy1:

Off Twitter, an image of the Monmouth tornado. Hope the damage isn't too bad, but I'm sure there's some:




is that still on the ground ?/ live east of it ..
Quoting 96. BahaHurican:

Anybody have the chart nearby? Trying to remember the average date for the 4th named storm ...


We're actually ahead of schedule for the second named storm
93L:

Do you mean 3rd named storm? Nice little start to the season.
Quoting 105. JrWeathermanFL:



We're actually ahead of schedule for the second named storm
Quoting 104. whitewabit:



is that still on the ground ?/ live east of it ..

No, tornado warning has expired or been canceled. It did appear to be a long tracker though, strong radar couplet maintained for quite awhile. Still severe warned for wind potential and also a lot of flash flood warnings going up, but tornado potential appears low now. Definitely not what was expected today though, there were no obvious red flags in advance for strong tornado potential. Just one of those deals I guess.
Quoting 108. TCweatherman:

Do you mean 3rd named storm? Nice little start to the season.


We are ahead for the 2nd named storm too, that is August 1st
Y-axis might get adjusted on the SOI graph tomorrow.
Quoting 109. MAweatherboy1:


No, tornado warning has expired or been canceled. It did appear to be a long tracker though, strong radar couplet maintained for quite awhile. Still severe warned for wind potential and also a lot of flash flood warnings going up, but tornado potential appears low now. Definitely not what was expected today though, there were no obvious red flags in advance for strong tornado potential. Just one of those deals I guess.


the main cell head right towards me and its still 45K feet ..

Time(zulu)0030 City:CAMERON County:WARREN State: IL

Saying that Cameron, Illinois had significant building damage.
Quoting 99. pottery:

Greetings.
So, a T-Wave is approaching. About time too ! :):))

In the meantime, 4 earthquakes just North-East of Barbados (biggest 6.4 mag.) today.
Everything's wonky, man.

Could be the Rum! Stay safe Pottery!!
But I believe they were in less hostile environment then 93L. I just believe that 93L is going to have a rough go at it.
Quoting 93. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Yeah, but that same "Marginally was used for Ana,Bill,and Claudette, and yet they still developed more substantially than predicted. Heck, they even lowered the development chances on Claudette, but she still developed. So don't be quick to put something off before it even occurs , because they can be quick to develop and can prove you wrong.

It's one thing for the uncorrected CFS to produce unreasonable 3.0C forecasts, but to see the IRI ensemble mean (which is correctly initialized to seasonal SST anomalies) continue to climb dangerously close to Super NINO territory is a bit worrisome.

The average of the statistical & dynamical models is currently peaking around 2.0C, if we end up being any stronger than depicted we'll be in "Super" territory unfortunately... & a peak of ~ 2.0C would put us on the doorstep of the top 5 strongest El Ninos in the last 150 years. (1877-78, 1888-89, 1972-73, 1982-83, & 1997-98) (I'm still not sure about 1902-03 & 1940-41, both which *may* have reached 2.0C in the ONI)



The Multivariate ENSO Index has already already satisfied the criteria defined by Wolter & others for a strong El Nino, with 3 successive bi-monthlies @ or above the 90th percentile.

The tri-monthly averaged BEST Index isn't as impressive as the MEI, but still noteworthy, with last month coming in 13th overall, in the 91st percentile, which could certainly quantified as "strong" using deciles.

BEST Index AMJ Rankings (1870-present) adjusted w/ a 30-yr sliding base period (Top 20)
#1 1877 2.182
#2 1987 1.814
#3 1905 1.630
#4 1941 1.552
#5 1997 1.461
#6 1888 1.382
#7 1926 1.305
#8 1878 1.222
#9 1940 1.162
#10 1992 1.159
#11 1896 1.141
#12 1993 1.129
#13 2015 1.103
#14 1914 1.094
#15 1972 1.084
#16 1919 1.051
#17 1953 1.036
#18 1982 0.925
#19 1983 0.855
#20 1977 0.780



The Equatorial SOI (which measures the standardized SLP anomaly difference between the eastern Equatorial Pacific (5S-5N, 80-130W & Indonesia (90-140E) set a new monthly record this past June, was the highest monthly value since the 1997-98 El Nino, and tied for 24th highest overall since February 1949...

Here's the entire inverted, tri-monthly averaged timeseries


Enough evidence has already emerged to categorize the current El Nino as a strong, and the ONI will likely catch up to the BEST, MEI, & Equatorial SOI indices in a few months.
Quoting 108. TCweatherman:

Do you mean 3rd named storm? Nice little start to the season.


Second storm formation date based on climatology is August 1st
When Enrique formed on the 12th, the EPAC was 10 days ahead of schedule
Quoting 118. JrWeathermanFL:

When Enrique formed on the 12th, the EPAC was 10 days ahead of schedule



and yet the Atlantic is like 1 month ahead of schedule lol
Insane video of a significant, multivortex tornado near Monmouth, IL earlier today.
Youtube Link

There's also been reports of major damage in Cameron, IL, possibly from the same tornado in the video.
Quoting 99. pottery:

Greetings.
So, a T-Wave is approaching. About time too ! :):))

In the meantime, 4 earthquakes just North-East of Barbados (biggest 6.4 mag.) today.
Everything's wonky, man.
The earthquakes were felt in Guyana too and they have been having to deal with some serious flooding there as well. President Granger has had to order an emergency cabinet meeting. Hope everything is going well with you my friend and it looks like we got our first tropical wave invest of the season. I wouldn't be surprised if it became a tropical storm! This season has already gotten off to a fast start even despite El Nino.



Hello again Guys!!


Quoting 102. Gearsts:

Shields up?

Quoting 106. Envoirment:

93L:




Reminds me the 93L in Mid June 2010, that was a very impressive invest for June, almost became a depression.
Post #116. Excellent analysis.




This wave is ventilating nicely tonight , I'd expect the percentages to go up tomorrow as shear is lifting out ahead of it. The Anticyclone is a big plus !
I see we have an invest in the Central Atlantic..

Naysayers..

I present your plate of cookie crumbs..



Quoting 78. TropicalAnalystwx13:

93L has about a 48 hour window within marginally favorable conditions before shear increases to over 40 knots and mid-level RH falls below 60%. SSTs are only expected to be around 26C throughout the new few days.


Yep. It's going to hit a brick wall.
I noticed that when the NCEP ensembles site go down we get some type of invest..

and of course its down again since the 06z run this morning..
Quoting 114. Wolfberry:

Could be the Rum! Stay safe Pottery!!

I think it's the maniac root that's a dietary staple down there ;)
93L looks nicely ventilated this evening, with a little more organization occurring. The storm seems to have developed that classic cyclonic shape around itself.
(sigh)
strong anticyclone on top

Quoting 131. tiggerhurricanes2001:

93L looks nicely ventilated this evening, with a little more organization occurring. The storm seems to have developed that classic cyclonic shape around itself.
Quoting 126. stormpetrol:





This wave is ventilating nicely tonight , I'd expect the percentages to go up tomorrow as shear is lifting out ahead of it. The Anticyclone is a big plus !


Agreed

Should keep an eye on it
Yes I know I am happily surprised by this :).
Quoting 110. Hurricanes101:



We are ahead for the 2nd named storm too, that is August 1st
Wunderblogadmin has asked me not to post lists of articles on featured blogs. I will continue posting lists in my own blog.
I do have to admit this is one of better looking Atlantic system (at its beginning) than any other Atlantic system for this season

It has perks too

Good developing upper anticyclone
Decent moisture
Decent rotation

As it moves W it taps into warmer SSTs

If this moves as a low rider into the Caribbean and maintain its upper anticyclone this could cause a problem into the Caribbean and potentially the U.S.
What is the source for this? How can I find it?
Quoting 137. ncstorm:




141. FOREX
Quoting 139. wunderkidcayman:

I do have to admit this is one of better looking Atlantic system (at its beginning) than any other Atlantic system for this season

It has perks too

Good developing upper anticyclone
Decent moisture
Decent rotation

As it moves W it taps into warmer SSTs

If this moves as a low rider into the Caribbean and maintain its upper anticyclone this could cause a problem into the Caribbean and potentially the U.S.


And I owe you an apology for my earlier comments. I had not done my research.
Quoting 138. BaltimoreBrian:

Wunderblogadmin has asked me not to post lists of articles on featured blogs. I will continue posting lists in my own blog.
Hmmmm ...... Pls do continue to let us know when you have a new listing up.
Quoting 131. tiggerhurricanes2001:

93L looks nicely ventilated this evening, with a little more organization occurring. The storm seems to have developed that classic cyclonic shape around itself.

The biggest roadblock right now for anything to form is consolidation. The western "blob" has better rotation (at least in rainbow imagery), but the eastern "blob" has the anticyclone to support it and better convection.

IMO, the eastern section is the one to watch, since it has convection and an anticyclone in its formative stages above it.

That said... the invest basically has a gauntlet from he** in front of it, in terms of shear and dry air.
Quoting 138. BaltimoreBrian:

Wunderblogadmin has asked me not to post lists of articles on featured blogs. I will continue posting lists in my own blog.



really ? after all the years you been doing that they are now telling you that you can post them articles on the main blog any more?


am getting too a point too where i wont any make a post on here any more i this lurk for now on in fact that is what am going too do if any one wants too chat with me that can now do it buy my mail box for this point on am now lurking this is my last post

i may start posting on here agnin once they relax some of the rules but in tell then i now lurk
Quoting 91. Climate175:

The islands really need it, the wave will at least bring a positive impact.


But not if it goes north of the Lesser Antilles as the models are currently showing :(
Quoting 140. leofarnsworth:

What is the source for this? How can I find it?



FSU Tropical Weather Page
Quoting 145. CaribBoy:



But not if it goes north of the Lesser Antilles as the models are currently showing :(


I doubt it will go north of the Islands the High is well established!
Anyone seen Sar on here lately? Not like him to not be here giving WKC a hard time. Hope he's okay. WKC, we've seen strong anticyclones defy dry air and high shear and push them both out of the way many times in the past. Interesting set up.
Quoting 141. FOREX:



And I owe you an apology for my earlier comments. I had not done my research.


It's ok just remember research first

Quoting 145. CaribBoy:



But not if it goes north of the Lesser Antilles as the models are currently showing :(

Quoting 147. stormpetrol:



I doubt it will go north of the Islands the High is well established!


Agreed I don't think this will go North of the Islands as well

Caribboy have you learnt yet never to trust the first few model runs

Infact I say better model runs are done when you have RECON flights
Quoting 149. DeepSeaRising:

Anyone seen Sar on here lately? Not like him to not be here giving WKC a hard time. Hope he's okay. WKC, we've seen strong anticyclones defy dry air and high shear and push them both out of the way many times in the past. Interesting set up.


Please don't drag him out

I'm already having a hard time with all the training I'm doing here with Hazard Management the police the navy and marines
I don't need any more bringing Sar in might just make me go mad
Quoting 138. BaltimoreBrian:

Wunderblogadmin has asked me not to post lists of articles on featured blogs. I will continue posting lists in my own blog.


Really? Why not? It has never been a blog point of contention, that's a shame, many of us including myself enjoyed them being shared here.
Quoting 138. BaltimoreBrian:

Wunderblogadmin has asked me not to post lists of articles on featured blogs. I will continue posting lists in my own blog.


Will it be daily? I'd like to share the list to my G+ stream.
(Heck, if you've got a G+ account, I'd share the posts.)
Quoting 149. DeepSeaRising:

Anyone seen Sar on here lately? Not like him to not be here giving WKC a hard time. Hope he's okay. WKC, we've seen strong anticyclones defy dry air and high shear and push them both out of the way many times in the past. Interesting set up.


I believe he just had cataract surgery.
Bingo....
Quoting 150. wunderkidcayman:



It's ok just remember research first




Agreed I don't think this will go North of the Islands as well

Caribboy have you learnt yet never to trust the first few model runs

Infact I say better model runs are done when you have RECON flights


Hopefully the next model runs will be further south... and west.
Quoting 138. BaltimoreBrian:

Wunderblogadmin has asked me not to post lists of articles on featured blogs. I will continue posting lists in my own blog.

A bummer they would say that. I have always enjoyed them and catch them, too, over at Ricky Rood's blog. Certainly on topic at large and have been a staple here for a long time. Brian, thank you for your service. Guys like you make America proud.
Quoting 153. Jedkins01:



Really? Why not? It has never been a blog point of contention, that's a shame, many of us including myself enjoyed them being shared here.

The email from wunderadmin giving their reasoning is in comment #985 of my blog.
Blog has been free flowing and the mods and administration have done a great job keeping WU troll free. Just hope there's a larger discussion about micromanagement that removes many of the staples that help to keep this the premiere climate and tropical weather site on the net. Brian's list in particular. It highlights the groundbreaking in science, climate, and related topics that helps keep groundbreaking research at the forefront of members thinking. Has been a staple and one of the most popular postings here for a long time.
Those who would like to make a comment to anyone I would suggest you go to their blog and leave them a message ..

Dr Masters blog is not a bulletin board ..

I would suggest everyone read Dr Masters Rules of the Road and follow those rules .

Thank you ..
Quoting 161. whitewabit:

Those who would like to make a comment to anyone I would suggest you go to their blog and leave them a message ..

Dr Masters blog is not a bulletin board ..

I would suggest everyone read Dr Masters Rules of the Road and follow those rules .

Thank you ..


Fair enough, everyone has a boss, your just following the rules. I understand and can respect that.
free flowing?

Good night all..



Quoting 161. whitewabit:

Those who would like to make a comment to anyone I would suggest you go to their blog and leave them a message ..

Dr Masters blog is not a bulletin board ..

I would suggest everyone read Dr Masters Rules of the Road and follow those rules .

Thank you ..


Note: The WunderBlogs are a forum for our members to express their opinions and ideas.
"Gee"

Quoting 157. CaribBoy:



Hopefully the next model runs will be further south... and west.


As I said first few run are not that great

The best of the better ones are the ones with Recon Data

I say first recon flight would either be on Sun or Mon
Quoting 139. wunderkidcayman:

I do have to admit this is one of better looking Atlantic system (at its beginning) than any other Atlantic system for this season

It has perks too

Good developing upper anticyclone
Decent moisture
Decent rotation

As it moves W it taps into warmer SSTs

If this moves as a low rider into the Caribbean and maintain its upper anticyclone this could cause a problem into the Caribbean and potentially the U.S.

Conditions in the Caribbean are not favorable and are not forecast to become favorable. Thank the bonafide El Nino. :)
Here's a positive thought; we use to have the same trolls who came back over and over again under a different name, haven't seen them in a long time. Site's not gone down the hole of big business since the deal. Have Bob Henson and other great additions to WU since the merger. Thousands follow this site. Why do so few plus the posts of Jeff and Bob? Comes down to simple communication to the masses. 300 plus million Americans and most have no clue WU exists. How do we reach them? Why hasn't that happened? These are not hard questions to answer.
Quoting 165. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Note: The WunderBlogs are a forum for our members to express their opinions and ideas.

Thank you.Someone had seemed to leave that out...
172. JRRP

finally something interesting
Quoting 169. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Conditions in the Caribbean are not favorable and are not forecast to become favorable. Thank the bonafide El Nino. :)


Anticyclone can't overcome? I agree with you TA. But, have seen it happen before. Why won't the anticyclone be able to overcome the conditions ahead?
Quoting 170. DeepSeaRising:

Here's a positive thought; we use to have the same trolls who came back over and over again under a different name, haven't seen them in a long time. Site's not gone down the hole of big business since the deal. Have Bob Henson and other great additions to WU since the merger. Thousands follow this site. Why do so few plus the posts of Jeff and Bob? Comes down to simple communication to the masses. 300 plus million Americans and most have no clue WU exists. How do we reach them? Why hasn't that happened? These are not hard questions to answer.

You could blog about it.

Quoting 165. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Note: The WunderBlogs are a forum for our members to express their opinions and ideas.



(quote of 165 added)
Quoting 163. DeepSeaRising:



Fair enough, everyone has a boss, your just following the rules. I understand and can respect that.


Point is, the mods haven't changed, what has changed lays above them. In that light, they are our best voice for reason.
93L has organized fairly quickly....I think the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean region should watch it carefully. On my lastest blog update I predict 93L will be a tropical storm approaching this area by 72 to 96 hours...
Quoting 176. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



hold up a minute pat this worm is about to make a lethal strike

i've been away for a while but I am back

93L INVEST



Lethal strike? Well that is some statement! Very interesting situation. Strong anticyclone verse strong inhibiting conditions of shear. What say ye on where this interest goes from here? Forms into a TS, goes to the Bahamas, then bombs up the East Coast? One never knows.
Quoting 159. BaltimoreBrian:

The email from wunderadmin giving their reasoning is in comment #985 of my blog.


I understand now, anyways, I'm really surprised, it breezy outside with fast moving towering cumulus, a temp of 79 and a 78 dew point, already convection is developing all over, which is odd given such a massive and persistent convective blow up just several hours earlier, and we don't even have upper level energy.

Amazing how only some weak 850 mb low pressure troughing over us is enough to create this heavy rain event pattern. This reminds me of a tropical cyclone environment, at the very least, a tropical wave.
I have a new gig tactic.

I don't confer with mods in any form.

But thanx
Maybe code orange in 30-45 minutes.
Quoting 178. DeepSeaRising:



Lethal strike? Well that is some statement! Very interesting situation. Strong anticyclone verse strong inhibiting conditions of shear. What say ye on where this interest goes from here? Forms into a TS, goes to the Bahamas, then bombs up the East Coast? One never knows.

I don't think 93L will be a problem for the Bahamas or east coast. The upper vortex currently over the Lesser Antilles will still be around for a few more days as an upper trough...with the upper trough acting to significantly shear 93L once it reaches the eastern Caribbean. Therefore life for 93L beyond the eastern Caribbean looks to be difficult....
Quoting 173. DeepSeaRising:



Anticyclone can't overcome? I agree with you TA. But, have seen it happen before. Why won't the anticyclone be able to overcome the conditions ahead?

Hard to overcome 35-45 kt of westerly wind shear.

Not to mention the increasingly dry environment 93L will have to contend with.

Chances don't look good for this one. Maybe an optimistic 30% chance for a disorganized and brief tropical storm.
:-( !!!

Must be for the great presentation for the "New Show" coming soon.
We all need to cross our T's and dot out I's from here on!

Quoting 138. BaltimoreBrian:

Wunderblogadmin has asked me not to post lists of articles on featured blogs. I will continue posting lists in my own blog.
<
Quoting 183. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hard to overcome 35-45 kt of westerly wind shear.

Not to mention the increasingly dry environment 93L will have to contend with.

Chances don't look good for this one. Maybe an optimistic 30% chance for a disorganized and brief tropical storm.


will not be much
I don't think
who knows




edit update latest image
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected
to be marginally conducive for some slow development of this
disturbance through the weekend, with upper-level winds becoming
less favorable early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Danny, is that you?

Quoting 138. BaltimoreBrian:

Wunderblogadmin has asked me not to post lists of articles on featured blogs. I will continue posting lists in my own blog.
Hmmmm ...... Pls do continue to let us know when you have a new listing up.
Quoting 178. DeepSeaRising:



Lethal strike? Well that is some statement! Very interesting situation. Strong anticyclone verse strong inhibiting conditions of shear. What say ye on where this interest goes from here? Forms into a TS, goes to the Bahamas, then bombs up the East Coast? One never knows.
My plus is not because I like what you said but because you expressed my worst fear ... one can continue to hope 93l stays weak and westbound ...
More thunderstorms here ...
stay alert and safe south florida.................................422 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...
...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC, BISCAYNE BAY THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

FLOODING: SOME LOCALES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO
AREA, COULD RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED LOCALES.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS: WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
BISCAYNE BAY THIS MORNING.
Quoting 191. LargoFl:

stay alert and safe south florida.................................422 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...
...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC, BISCAYNE BAY THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

FLOODING: SOME LOCALES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO
AREA, COULD RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED LOCALES.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS: WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
BISCAYNE BAY THIS MORNING.



After missing the bulk of the action yesterday, I'm getting absolutely pounded right now in Central Pinellas, rainfall rates are off the charts! Even though these cells move fast and only last about 10 minutes or so, I can't wait to check the gauge, we've already had about 3 rounds here with flooding and hear comes a stronger cell moving in now with loud thunder and some bright lightning activiy too.
Quoting 192. Jedkins01:



After missing the bulk of the action yesterday, I'm getting absolutely pounded right now in Central Pinellas, rainfall rates are off the charts! Even though these cells move fast and only last about 10 minutes or so, I can't wait to check the gauge, we've already had about 3 rounds here with flooding and hear comes a stronger cell moving in now with loud thunder and some bright lightning activiy too.
gee Jedkins I cannot believe how much rain etc we are getting this morning
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
445 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

FLC103-171045-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0065.150717T0845Z-150717T1045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PINELLAS FL-
445 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 645 AM EDT

* AT 441 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES
THAT BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN A SWATH
BETWEEN INDIAN ROCKS BEACH AND DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS THROUGH 630 AM. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THE THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CLEARWATER...LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...SEMINOLE...SAINT PETERSBURG...
DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...ST. PETERSBURG...ST. PETE BEACH...BAY
PINES...SOUTH HIGHPOINT...RIDGECREST...WEST AND EAST LEALMAN...
HARBOR BLUFFS...FEATHER SOUND...GANDY...GULFPORT...TREASURE
ISLAND...KENNETH CITY...SOUTH PASADENA AND MADEIRA BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2798 8282 2796 8272 2794 8272 2784 8259
2784 8262 2782 8260 2773 8263 2772 8270
2773 8269 2775 8272 2774 8274 2775 8277
2783 8276 2779 8279 2783 8280 2782 8283
2784 8283

$$
Quoting 138. BaltimoreBrian:

Wunderblogadmin has asked me not to post lists of articles on featured blogs. I will continue posting lists in my own blog.
That's odd. I always like your lists.


Flooding occurring in Pinellas County, FL. Some areas have received over 4 inches of rain since midnight.
Forecast models have shifted W
Quoting 197. tampabaymatt:



Flooding occurring in Pinellas County, FL. Some areas have received over 4 inches of rain since midnight.


Some areas have had 2-4 inches in my county in just a couple hours!

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
520 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

FLC103-171045-
/O.CON.KTBW.FA.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-150717T1045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PINELLAS FL-
520 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
645 AM EDT FOR SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY...

AT 516 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE HEAVY RAIN DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS FALLING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATES THAT A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN INDIAN ROCKS BEACH AND
DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...
AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 630 AM EDT.

REPORTS OF LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM AROUND
THE SAINT PETERSBURG VICINITY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CLEARWATER...LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...SEMINOLE...SAINT PETERSBURG...
DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...ST. PETERSBURG...ST. PETE BEACH...BAY
PINES...SOUTH HIGHPOINT...RIDGECREST...WEST AND EAST LEALMAN...HARBOR
BLUFFS...FEATHER SOUND...GANDY...GULFPORT...TREASURE ISLAND...KENNETH
CITY...SOUTH PASADENA AND MADEIRA BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 2798 8282 2796 8272 2794 8272 2784 8259
2784 8262 2782 8260 2773 8263 2772 8270
2773 8269 2775 8272 2774 8274 2775 8277
2783 8276 2779 8279 2783 8280 2782 8283
2784 8283


I just checked the gauge, I can't get the exact amount, but we've had a about 2.80 so far here, and about 1.5 of it fell in only 20-30 minutes. We've definitely made up for getting missed by everything yesterday. I think rainfall estimates are even a bit low today as well, radar estimate says I've had between 1 and 2 but I'm nearly at 3 inches.

Hopefully these cells will start making better penetration inland too so areas from Tampa east get in on the action as well. Some of these cells have a surprising amount of lightning for this time of pattern, lightning was insane earlier from that cell that brought flooding around here.
Good Morning.
It's a Dark, Damp, Dank, Drizzly one. (that means it's raining, for those of you who have not had the coffee).
And off Barbados, the undersea regions keep shaking about.

We are hoping that the shakes don't disturb Kick-em-Jenny.
But you'll have to google that one.

Off for a long drive to the NorthEast tip of the Island.
It's going to be a wet one.......
Quoting 199. wunderkidcayman:

Forecast models have shifted W


The Caribbean will kill anything. Wind shear is screaming. #elnino
Quoting 197. tampabaymatt:



Flooding occurring in Pinellas County, FL. Some areas have received over 4 inches of rain since midnight.


Got rocked big time in Palm Harbor and it's coming down again now.
Good Morning..







Morning, all. We had a fair thunderstorm party around 3 a.m., but now the sky and is clear and the sun is shining. .... I'm traveling to one of the southern islands today, and I'm hoping we have clear wx all the way down.

Quoting 204. ncstorm:

Good Morning..








With forecast models looking like that, not so much ...
:-/
Quoting 200. Jedkins01:



Some areas have had 2-4 inches in my county in just a couple hours!

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
520 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

FLC103-171045-
/O.CON.KTBW.FA.Y.0065.000000T0000Z-150717T1045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PINELLAS FL-
520 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
645 AM EDT FOR SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY...

AT 516 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE HEAVY RAIN DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS FALLING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATES THAT A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BETWEEN INDIAN ROCKS BEACH AND
DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...
AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 630 AM EDT.

REPORTS OF LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM AROUND
THE SAINT PETERSBURG VICINITY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CLEARWATER...LARGO...PINELLAS PARK...SEMINOLE...SAINT PETERSBURG...
DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG...ST. PETERSBURG...ST. PETE BEACH...BAY
PINES...SOUTH HIGHPOINT...RIDGECREST...WEST AND EAST LEALMAN...HARBOR
BLUFFS...FEATHER SOUND...GANDY...GULFPORT...TREASURE ISLAND...KENNETH
CITY...SOUTH PASADENA AND MADEIRA BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 2798 8282 2796 8272 2794 8272 2784 8259
2784 8262 2782 8260 2773 8263 2772 8270
2773 8269 2775 8272 2774 8274 2775 8277
2783 8276 2779 8279 2783 8280 2782 8283
2784 8283


I just checked the gauge, I can't get the exact amount, but we've had a about 2.80 so far here, and about 1.5 of it fell in only 20-30 minutes. We've definitely made up for getting missed by everything yesterday. I think rainfall estimates are even a bit low today as well, radar estimate says I've had between 1 and 2 but I'm nearly at 3 inches.

Hopefully these cells will start making better penetration inland too so areas from Tampa east get in on the action as well. Some of these cells have a surprising amount of lightning for this time of pattern, lightning was insane earlier from that cell that brought flooding around here.


The storms that are progressing towards Hillsborough look to be weakening, but maybe I'm wrong on that. I haven't received anything yet today. 0.43" on Wednesday and 0.55" yesterday, so I'm waiting for my turn to get pummeled with a few inches. Maybe it's still to come today.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions could be
marginally conducive for some slow development of this disturbance
through the weekend before becoming less conducive early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
From the Miami NWS Disco...

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NORTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH THE
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS
RESULTING IN A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. MOISTURE IS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEAN FOR MID
JULY...WITH PW IN THE 1.75-2.00 RANGE. BROAD SCALE CONVERGENCE
WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY ALONG WITH MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...AND WITH HEALTHY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE,
AM EXPECTING THE TRANQUIL MORNING TO TURN TO A STORMY AFTERNOON
FOR MANY LOCALES. A FEW TSTORMS COULD EVEN DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING.

HIGH RES MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH
THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THE FLOW PATTERN.

HRRR SHOWS ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" ACROSS THE EAST
COAST METRO AND INTO THE INTERIOR WITH IMPACTS BEING ISOLATED
STREET FLOODING IN TYPICAL (ALTHOUGH NOT THIS YEAR) SOUTH FL
RAINY SEASON STYLE. GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
Quoting 195. LargoFl:


in the meantime in riverview,on the east side of the bay, the sun is out. when you look at the radar the storms arent making far over land. a little shower here about 6 am but seems like over here we are still going to get just drizzle and more mold and mushrooms.
93L...

Good Morning Folks. While Nangka has been downgraded to what essentially amounts now to a tropical depression, rain is still falling on Japan and the parallel path of the storm/remnants along the west coast of Japan will amount to more rain and flooding. Per the latest blog from Mr. Henson, two deaths occurred as of yesterday, will check later from Japanese news sources as to any updates on the situation and flooding issues. As you can see from the latest images below, the storm has dried out considerably which is good news; hopefully this trend will continue. Will note that the core of the storm appears to remain right on the Western coast of Japan this morning as opposed the further West over the open water as depicted in the track plot.  Once a storm has significant interaction with land (and the mountains of Japan in this case), the projected post-interaction track is more difficult to ascertain; some  storms are able to recover and some are not:




wow invest 93L IS HERE
Quoting 210. intampa:

in the meantime in riverview,on the east side of the bay, the sun is out. when you look at the radar the storms arent making far over land. a little shower here about 6 am but seems like over here we are still going to get just drizzle and more mold and mushrooms.


You're right. All of the storms are dissipating the second they get over land. I don't understand why that's happening, but a similar thing happened yesterday and the day before, which limits the high rainfall totals to areas on the coast.
Further East, the E-Pac appears to be priming again and a nice looking wave out in the Eastern Atlantic (now designated as 93L) . I am actually surprised at how "high" the axis of this wave is. We don't always see African Easterly waves moving above 10N this early in the year. Also noting that shear is relatively low where the axis is now but the wave is headed towards higher shear over the next two days. but I will say this; amazing how much the wave has helped to clear out the SAL. I would be more worried about this wave if this was late August:






Here is WV loop as related to 93L; again, surprised at how much moisture is out there along with the wave this time of the year. However, I have been noting recently that notwithstanding the prognosis for a low number year due to El Nino, that the African wave train will be very healthy this year due to plenty of rain in the Sahel:

ok folks.....we have an invest and this blog is dead..........let's get to moving and see some activity

found this map last year.............

Quoting 214. tampabaymatt:



You're right. All of the storms are dissipating the second they get over land. I don't understand why that's happening, but a similar thing happened yesterday and the day before, which limits the high rainfall totals to areas on the coast.
I do wonder why this happens. It seems that this phenomenon is not unique.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions could be
marginally conducive for some slow development of this disturbance
through the weekend before becoming less conducive early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 perce


Underdog for sure.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
843 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PINELLAS TO LEVY COUNTIES...

.HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE EXPECTED TODAY.

FLZ050-139-142-148-149-180000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.A.0002.150717T1243Z-150718T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PINELLAS-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-
COASTAL PASCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. PETERSBURG...CLEARWATER...LARGO...
CEDAR KEY...YANKEETOWN...CRYSTAL RIVER...HOMOSASSA...
HERNANDO BEACH...BAYPORT...PORT RICHEY...HUDSON
843 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FL AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN FL...COASTAL CITRUS...
COASTAL HERNANDO...COASTAL LEVY AND COASTAL PASCO. IN WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...PINELLAS.

* UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING

* .HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE EXPECTED
TODAY. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST HAVE RECEIVED FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SOME AREAS ALONG THE COAST
MAY RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

Dozens flee homes as wildfires rage in Greece, PM urges calm
ATHENS | By Yannis Behrakis, Fri Jul 17, 2015 1:45pm BST, Reuters
Dozens of Athens residents fled their homes on Friday as wildfires fanned by strong winds and high temperatures burned through woodland around the Greek capital, sending clouds of smoke billowing over the city. ...
good sign to see healthy waves. don't expect anything out of the MDR until at least August 10th given a) strong el nino b) cold amo pattern and c) once again for the 4th straight season extremely low vertical instability.
Looking at the TWO below, and the long dry road (ahead), NHC is right on the money with relatively low chances of tropical development. There are 4 major impediments to tropical development ahead for 93L; a) not enough moisture along with it to "carry out" of the ITCZ (this is a stand alone wave will little support); b) a drier environment ahead; c) higher shear to the West; and d) marginal SSTs as it gains latitude (the recent SAL retreat will still require several more weeks of additional SST heating further North in the Atlantic as we head into mid-August).

I would not hold my breath on development of 93L but an impressive mid-July effort.
93l=early august in Miami




Well starting tomorrow I'll be gone to the mountains for 2 weeks so I better look at all the imagery I can
234. etxwx
Perhaps this is applicable to weather warning sirens...
Scientists Investigate The Power and Meaning of the Human Scream
Excerpt: “In terms of potential applications, our findings could be used to improve the way we design alarm sounds. The same way a bad smell is added to natural gas to make it easily detectable, adding roughness to alarm sounds may improve and accelerate their processing.”
Quoting 222. SouthTampa:

I do wonder why this happens. It seems that this phenomenon is not unique.
Atmosphere is typically most unstable over oceans during the diurnal maximum, which is opposite for land based convection that reaches it's optimal energy availability during diurnal minimum or "peak heating of the day". 

LINK http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~swsyangg/diurnal.html
invest 93L is weaking right now notting much to watch here right now!
What St. Petersburg looks like this morning:



St. Pete Beach. More rain coming in.
Nice little wave for Mid-July. Hopefully we can get a decent cape verde season going. Always fun to track, especially if they are fishies.
Quoting 239. tampabaymatt:



St. Pete Beach. More rain coming in.

You guys are getting pounded on the west coast! Looks like a similar pattern today so again not expecting much here in E CFL.
Quoting 239. tampabaymatt:



St. Pete Beach. More rain coming in.


St Pete got hit hard overnight and are getting hit now.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
955 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...

.UPDATE... PARTS OF THE COASTAL AREA FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTH
RECEIVED 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND MORE IS
EXPECTED TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED VALID UNTIL 8PM THIS
EVENING. A STATIONARY FRONT APPEARS TO BE DRAPED OVER THE GULF SOUTH
OF THE PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA WITH CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTION ALONG IT. OVER N FL AND S GA WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE
NORTH WHILE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING INDICATES PW OVER 2 INCHES WITH WESTERLY FLOW TO
500 MB AND NORTHERLY ABOVE. NEIGHBORING SOUNDING AT TAE NORTH OF THE
FRONT HAS A LOWER PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE REST OF TODAY AND SLOWLY
PROPAGATING INLAND WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES. THE
FORECAST PACKAGE WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ONGOING SITUATION.
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.


&&
last sunday i looked at the forecast for the british open of golf i remember it saying fair weather windy fri and sat. no mention of foul weather. well the weather has been nasty. this morning thunder and lightning postponed it and now they are saying it could be very windy this afternoon. unpredictability why this tournament is the best of all of them
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SYNOPSIS 2015071700

93L .. P07L (NHC: 10% 2-day / 20% 5-day)
11N, 35W
925 hPa

Interestingly, 700 hPa had the best depiction of v700 in the Hovmoller diagram (especially for ECMWF), but the best depiction of a circulation was down at 925 hPa.


ECMWF: Just a trough with unorganized OW up at 700 hPa. Down at 925 hPa, P07L is the easternmost of at least three tiny OW maxima in the analysis. By 12 hours, P07L has grown a little, has a CL-trough intersection, and a circulation. However, as much larger P06L moves in from the east, 93L/P07L quickly dissipates.

GFS: With a faster phase speed than in ECMWF, 93L is able to outpace the approaching P06L. Tracks to the WNW. Pouch TPW decreases after 36 hours, and deep vertical shear increases after 72 hours as 93L approaches the Caribbean. Dissipates south of Puerto Rico after 108 hours.

UKMET:

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -5.6 0.0 v700 36h
GFS -8.0 1.2 v700 108h
Anyone have link to ASCAT data???
DURING THE WEEKEND...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE MUGGY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE FROM WEAKENING HURRICANE DELORES IS
PROGGED TO GET DRAWN INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HOW
MUCH EFFECT THIS HAS ON OUR AREA DEPENDS ON HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST
THIS MOISTURE TRAVELS. THE GFS BRINGS THE MOISTURE INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR
DISTRICT...PERHAPS ONLY CLIPPING MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES
WITH RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF TAKES IT FARTHER
NORTH AND EARLIER WITH RAIN POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO THE DISTRICT
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

This will be another test for the ECMWF to see if it's able to discern an unusual event against the other models as it did with Sandy. If it verifies, no need to look at the other models.
I guess at least I am surprised to see an invest in the MDR. Something to do for a bit anyway. It is my belief that if anything were to survive long enough and make it North of the Caribbean, it's chances of becoming something to look at increase markedly.
MDR was shut down by some WU members but "mother nature" had other ideas..
As is typical with most tropical systems, as soon as the NHC pays it any attention, it quickly deteriorates. We all know 93L won't make it (although I wish it would), but it's at least good to see a healthy looking wave so early in a strong El Nino year. Maybe there is hope for at least one good storm in the MDR later in the season.
It's pouring on Longboat Key again this morning. I practically needed a HumVee to get off the island after work yesterday, so if this keeps up it should be equally as fun (not!) this afternoon.


Besides being remarkably persistent, the moist upper outflow of Enrique is flowing into a convergent belt around Dolores. While the belt looks dry on the vapor loop, this is deceptive in that it's only reflecting the subsidence of the upper convergence. The convergence may actually be contributing to an enhancement of the humidity of the mid and lower levels around Dolores which may prolong its existence. Meanwhile, a significant upper trough over western Canada is digging south over the Great Basin, with a strong offshore wind component coming off the associated jet. This is setting up an unusual easterly flow that might well keep Dolores from moving east as it moves over the coastal waters of California
Quoting 242. sanflee76:


You guys are getting pounded on the west coast! Looks like a similar pattern today so again not expecting much here in E CFL.
It seems to be clearing up a little faster today than yesterday, so if we get enough heating over here along the west coast we might see a more robust seabreeze form and spark convection on the east coast later in the afternoon :) But even if that doesn't happen, you guys still got plenty of rain within the past week to hold you over
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Nevermind.