WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

An Avalanche of New Models for Severe Weather Prediction

By: Bob Henson 6:33 PM GMT on July 18, 2015

Not so long ago, forecasters at NOAA had just one high-resolution computer model to tell them where thunderstorms might erupt later in the day. Now there’s a whole cornucopia of models that project how storms will evolve, hour by hour, at fine scale. It’s a bit like having a large network of friends and family to consult when you’re making a big personal decision, instead of asking just one person for a single opinion that might steer you right or wrong. Processing all those viewpoints does take some time, though. Forecasters practiced using the array of new guidance during May and early June as part of the 2015 Spring Forecasting Experiment at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) in Norman (see my posts of May 5 and May 21).

Here’s one reason why predicting specific thunderstorms has remained such a challenge: traditional computer models simply aren’t fine-grained enough to explicitly portray individual showers and storms. Instead, they use convective parameterization, where a model takes favorable large-scale conditions as a cue to place showers and thunderstorms (convection) inside model grid cells that may be 10 or 20 miles wide. In contrast, “convection-allowing” models have grid cells that are 6 miles wide or less, which means a single large thunderstorm can emerge naturally across multiple grid cells instead of being artificially implanted by the model within each cell. This allows for a much more realistic portrayal of thunderstorms, with chunky blobs replaced by finely detailed filaments and bands (see Figure 1).


Figure 1. A little over a decade ago, operational forecasters might have used a model-generated forecast of 3-hour precipitation (left image, at 40-km resolution) to gain insight into thunderstorm development. Advances in computing power and modeling have allowed for higher resolution, explicit modeling of showers and thunderstorms, and more frequent time steps within the model. At right: simulated radar reflectivity from a numerical model with 4-km grid resolution and hourly forecast output. Image credit: Greg Carbin, NOAA/SPC.


This year's forecasting experiment called on 18 different model configurations, issued as often as once per hour, with resolutions mostly between 1 and 4 km. Most of these models were run multiple times in ensemble mode, with small variations in the starting-point data designed to mimic the uncertainty in initial observations. All this added up to a bounty of model-generated guidance.

The main job in the forecasting experiment was to issue short-term probabilities for the likelihood of tornadoes, severe hail, severe wind, and "significant" severe hail and wind (2" diameter hailstones or 65-knot winds). SPC already estimates such odds for the current day and the following two days, but this experiment tested more frequent probabilities, issued several times a day for periods spanning 1 to 4 hours. The new convection-allowing models provided ample raw material for this task. A variety of forecasters from the public, private, and academic sectors, including participants from across the United States as well as from Australia, Canada, England, and Hong Kong, convened at the testbed to evaluate the new guidance. “Part of what makes this experiment special is the diversity of the participants,” said Adam Clark (NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory), one of the experiment’s lead planners. “It’s designed to mix folks together who typically don’t interact much as part of their regular jobs. The different perspectives make things fun, engaging, and interesting, and most importantly help foster new ideas and directions for future research.”


Figure 2. Ariel Cohen (left), from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, was among the participants in the 2015 Spring Forecast Experiment. Image credit: NOAA.

The task facing all this talent was to see how much value they could add to an automated short-term outlook derived from the ensembles. Of course, there’s not nearly enough time to scrutinize every model run. “We could look at individual ensemble members, but that gets a little cumbersome,” said Greg Carbin, warning coordination meteorologist at the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC). “The more important questions are: What’s the model spread? Where do the models agree and disagree? What’s the character of storms within the ensembles? We issued forecasts based on all this information, then determined how well the forecasts verified.”


Figure 2. An experimental forecast, issued seven hours in advance, for the likelihood of any type of severe weather in a one-hour period (6:00 - 7:00 pm on May 19, 2015), based on probabilities generated by model ensembles. Colored circles show the percentage likelihood of at least one severe report within a 25-mile radius of any point. Colored icons show the actual severe weather that occurred: red = tornado, blue = severe wind, green = severe hail, and green triangle = “significant” severe hail, or at least 2” in diameter. Image credit: Greg Carbin, NOAA/SPC.


Carbin saw encouraging signs this spring in the ensembles’ ability to provide insight into storm mode, such as whether a day will feature potentially tornadic supercells. On May 19, forecasters used the model output to place parts of north Texas in a 2-to-5 percent tornado risk (the odds that a tornado would occur in the next hour within 25 miles of a given point). “This was a day with some uncertainty in tornado potential, especially south of the Red River,” said Carbin. “There was a robust signal in the ensemble data that short-track, but intense, rotating storms were likely. Our experimental forecast for total severe threat, based almost entirely on the ensemble information, verified very well.” (See Figure 2, above, for an example.)

James Correia (NOAA), SPC’s liaison to the testbed, also came away from this spring’s test with some cautious optimism. “As in years past with multiple ensembles, we always get multiple answers. I fully expected to get 60+ answers from 60+ members. I think we learned, again, that we need to go beyond probability to really hear what the ensembles are telling us.” For example, the high-resolution models often produce high values of updraft helicity, an indicator of storm rotation. But there aren’t enough fine-scale observations to confirm that storms are in fact producing that much helicity. In this sense, said Correia, “the ensembles are showing us what’s possible but not necessarily probable.”

Along with providing more confidence and lead time on the biggest, most dangerous outbreaks, ensembles may help get a handle on what some meteorologists call “mesoscale accidents”. This informal term refers to localized severe events that develop against the grain of mesoscale conditions that seem to be unfavorable for a significant event. “Mesoscale accidents are common in at least one or two members of an ensemble and can give forecasters a heads-up that something 'unexpected' has a small, but non-negligible, chance of occurring,” Correia said. “Knowing when and how to trust such a signal or classify it as noise is a challenge.” Getting familiar with the quirks of each model is a crucial step, but many models are so fresh on the scene that their idiosyncrasies aren't yet fully known.

MPAS: The future of multiday storm modeling?
Along with drawing on a new wealth of same-day model guidance, forecasters at the 2015 Spring Forecasting Experiment also test-drove output from a newly configured model that provides what was once thought to be either pointless or impossible: explicit modeling of showers and thunderstorms up to five days in advance.

The Model for Prediction across Scales (MPAS) is being developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (atmospheric component) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (ocean component). As its name implies, MPAS can operate on a variety of scales in both space and time. It uses an innovative grid: unlike the standard array of grid cells carved out by latitude and longitude, MPAS uses a hexagon-based grid called an unstructured Voronoi mesh (think of the pattern on a soccer ball). This eliminates problems like the narrowing of grid cells closer to the poles. The MPAS grid also allows for a near-seamless tightening of resolution where it’s most desired, such as over the deep tropics to depict hurricane development.


Figure 3. The honeycomb-like structure of MPAS (left) eliminates many of the challenges of model grids based on latitude and longitude. Each day in May 2015, MPAS was run with a grid-cell spacing of 3 km across most of North America (right; 3-km cells lie within the 4-km contour), with the resolution tapering off at greater distances from the continent. Forecasts were continued with a slightly different configuration for the PECAN field experiment in June and early July. Image credits: MPAS/Bill Skamarock, NCAR.


For the 2015 experiment, the atmospheric component of MPAS was run daily with a top resolution across a circle centered on North America of 3 kilometers (about 2 miles) between grid cells, surrounded by a concentric mesh with progressively lower resolution (see Figure 3). The result was a total of nearly 7 million grid cells covering the Northern Hemisphere. In the real world, each day’s convection shapes how the next day's will evolve, so the point of this MPAS test wasn’t to determine exactly where a particular thunderstorm would be in 120 hours. Instead, the idea was to employ MPAS’s skill at modeling larger-scale features in order to gauge what types of convection to expect over the next five days--squall lines, supercells, etc.--and where the heaviest activity might be focused.

Like any fine-scale model, MPAS includes much more realistic topography and land use than that found in a traditional, coarser model. Also, MPAS appears to capture the diurnal cycle of convection especially well, which is vital for multiday prediction. In a couple of cases, MPAS gave several days’ notice of where a large tornadic supercell was likely to emerge and track. (See Figure 4.)


Figure 4. Five days in advance, MPAS predicted that a band of strong updraft helicity (an index of potential storm rotation and severe weather) would emerge around Wichita Falls, TX, to near Tulsa, OK, on May 16, 2015 (left). A supercell ended up producing multiple tornadoes and very large hail close to that track (right). A second area of severe weather predicted for south-central Kansas ended up smaller and further to the northeast. Image credits: NCAR (left), NOAA/SPC (right).


According to Bill Skamarock, who leads the MPAS project at NCAR, this appears to be the first time that any model on Earth has carried out such high-resolution forecasting of showers and thunderstorms out to five days on a daily basis. “We have been pleasantly surprised as to how consistent, plausible, and even correct the longer-term forecasts from MPAS have been,” said Louis Wicker (NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory). Wicker and Skamarock are collaborating with Joseph Klemp (NCAR), Steven Cavallo (University of Oklahoma), and Adam Clark (NOAA) on post-experiment analysis. One test is to see how the MPAS results compare to the predictions from a traditional large-scale model (GFS) with an embedded finer-scale model (WRF).

“What an opportunity to see what a global model can do at convection-allowing scales!” said NOAA’s James Correia. "We learned that convection is at the beck and call of the larger-scale features…no surprise there. But to see a model predict mesoscale convective systems a few days out and be 'close' is always very encouraging.”

According to Skamarock, much work remains to be done on how best to assimilate radar, satellite, and other data into the starting-point analyses of each MPAS run. Depending on the forecast goal, it’s an open question whether it makes more sense to put resources into an MPAS-like system versus a full set of shorter-range, convection-allowing models. But MPAS may be just the first of its kind. Skamarock pointed to the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, where global model resolution has been steadily rising in line with Moore’s Law. The current high-resolution version of the flagship ECMWF model has a 16-km resolution covering the globe. If you extend the ECMWF progress from the 1980s to the year 2030, you end up with a global model that boasts 2.5-km resolution. According to Skamarock, "We are not that far from the point where we can run global models at convection-resolving scales."

Bob Henson


Mesoscale Forecasting

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

repeating,

* AT 550 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AREAS OF STRONG AND SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY ALONG THE INTERSTATE
210 CORRIDOR. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES OVER ONE INCH IN 30 MINUTES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS.
Have to unplug as a Mothership is arriving off Lake P, and a really Big un too.



Here is a video of an avid flood chaser in San Diego. Beware, there is a little cursing.

Quoting 487. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Conditions in 2005 were much different than the conditions this year. A majority of the Atlantic is currently dominated by anomalously strong upper-level winds, dry and dusty air, or a combination of both. The fact of the matter is, the chances for any development in the Main Development Region appear slim to none for at least the next several days. The only region that has been somewhat conducive for tropical cyclone formation is off the Southeast US coastline, consistent with what one would expect during an El Nino year.

People love to point out the exceptions to the rules, but at the end of the day, they're just that--exceptions (this is more of a general statement than one directed at you, DSR)


For sure, was just trying to drop a little humor. MDR will get us maybe three Cape Verde's, nothing is making the Gulf. Gulf is likely shut down for the season. Bahamas northward and off the Eastern seaboard is where the season will be at. If we get "The One" it'll be an Andrew to Irene event. Think this wave that just dropped off of Africa could develop, but NHC says negative Captain. I'd never make any money betting against them.
A rare summer storm allowed firefighters to contain 60 percent of a wildfire that swept across an interstate highway, torched vehicles and sent people running for their lives

That was the video patrap posted earlier. Odd event overall. Usually don't see wildfires taking cars and boats on the freeway like that.
Severe Thunderstorms/Floods Outbreak over South Brazil already complete more than 10 days, and the storms/floods will continues at least until Wednesday:


Photo of 16 minutes ago:


South of Rio Grande do Sul had more than 120 mm in less than 18 hours. The rain will get stronger tomorrow.



This is our El Niño pattern. :p
Just no way a wave survives the Caribbean and develops later over the Western Caribbean or Gulf. It's not going to happen. Early developing re-curving Cape Verdes or a tropical wave developing North of Hispaniola is where the chances are. 7/2/0 starting to look like a reality.
512. beell
Quoting 487. TropicalAnalystwx13:


... The only region that has been somewhat conducive for tropical cyclone formation is off the Southeast US coastline...




Some synoptic consistency here over the last couple of days. I'm sure you've seen it. Mid-level support for a surface trough and a chance for the GFS to add in some spurious vorticity.
:)


07/19 18Z GFS 500 mb heights, winds, vorticity-Valid Sunday, 7/26
There will be atleast a 1.6C reading tomorrow by the CPC as this was just updated by the Aussies at 1.6C.

Image is a link to the Los Angeles Times article. Way cool Dolores decided to throw some energy at southern California.

image credit: Lightning splits the sky over downtown Los Angeles on Saturday, July 18, 2015. (Harry Chandler / For the Times)

Quoting 463. hydrus:

Great post..It rings with McKenna...:)

Apparently some bloggers, as reflected in your comment and the one you quoted, do not understand that standing up for oneself to a bully or to verbal/written abuse on this forum in no way reflects the knowledge level or belief about global warming of the person who did the standing up. Apples and oranges, reds and greens, vanilla and chocolate blend better than what the OC attempted to lump together in the comment quoted.

I've said here many times, with this possibly the last... Wu bloggers who berate others over global warming don't understand how that beration harms their AGW message. They also seem to not understand, or not care, how much five years of this attitude has harmed the overall wu forum.
I bet many have no idea how significant a 2.40 ESPI reading is. This value is in line with values from 1997 as the El-Nino was peaking.


The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 2.40
Quoting 484. Patrap:




Hope some of this rain makes it into the valley where they grow all the crops!
Quoting 515. StormTrackerScott:

I bet many have no idea how significant a 2.40 ESPI reading is. This value is in line with values from 1997 as the El-Nino was peaking.


The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 2.40


It's ok with me Scott! Hope it goes higher!
Quoting 512. beell:



Some synoptic consistency here over the last couple of days. I'm sure you've seen it. Mid-level support for a surface trough and a chance for the GFS to add in some spurious vorticity.
:)


07/19 18Z GFS 500 mb heights, winds, vorticity-Valid Sunday, 7/26

EURO,CMC,NAVGEM latching on to that.
Southern California is getting amazing rain! I hope it is enough to have a significant impact on the reservoirs in southern California. I also hope it doesn't trigger plant growth that dries into tinder by September, but for now it is wonderful!
Quoting 515. StormTrackerScott:

I bet many have no idea how significant a 2.40 ESPI reading is. This value is in line with values from 1997 as the El-Nino was peaking.


The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 2.40


So what your saying is that we may catch Barracuda in the Puget Sound again?
Quoting 515. StormTrackerScott:

I bet many have no idea how significant a 2.40 ESPI reading is. This value is in line with values from 1997 as the El-Nino was peaking.


The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 2.40


I bet we do...
Quoting 516. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Hope some of this rain makes it into the valley where they grow all the crops!
It was raining in the San Joaquin Valley (Where they grow all the crops) earlier today when I drove through on my way back home from the coast.
Quoting 515. StormTrackerScott:

I bet many have no idea how significant a 2.40 ESPI reading is. This value is in line with values from 1997 as the El-Nino was peaking.


The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 2.40
Hi Scott. It seems like you're predictions were right and we are in for a strong El Nino. Other than constipation, if this does turn into a Super El Nino what would the effects be for Florida?
STS - When are you pedicting total climate collapse? Just so I can mark my calendar. I may need to move up my bucket list of things to do before then.
First time in twenty years an Angels game has been canceled due to rain.
Quoting 525. DeepSeaRising:

First time in twenty years an Angels game has been canceled due to rain.


Padres cancelled to
Quoting 519. BaltimoreBrian:

Southern California is getting amazing rain! I hope it is enough to have a significant impact on the reservoirs in southern California. I also hope it doesn't trigger plant growth that dries into tinder by September, but for now it is wonderful!
Still have to be careful what you wish for. A lot of the rain is heavy up on the San Gabriels, where there are four significant fires burning. The combination of fire and heavy rain is a pretty sure bet for debris flows in the canyons below the areas affected by fire. Mud, boulders, cars, pieces of houses, trees, and bodies sluicing down the canyons are not wonderful. John McPhee wrote about it graphically in "The Control of Nature".
Quoting 514. Barefootontherocks:

Image is a link to the Los Angeles Times article. Way cool Dolores decided to throw some energy at southern California.

image credit: Lightning splits the sky over downtown Los Angeles on Saturday, July 18, 2015. (Harry Chandler / For the Times)


Apparently some bloggers, as reflected in your comment and the one you quoted, do not understand that standing up for oneself to a bully or to verbal/written abuse on this forum in no way reflects the knowledge level or belief about global warming of the person who did the standing up. Apples and oranges, reds and greens, vanilla and chocolate blend better than what the OC attempted to lump together in the comment quoted.

I've said here many times, with this possibly the last... Wu bloggers who berate others over global warming don't understand how that beration harms their AGW message. They also seem to not understand, or not care, how much five years of this attitude has harmed the overall wu forum.


Something about he who is without sin casting the first stone....I can't remember how it goes, and I don't claim to know who fired the first shot, but all this "the AGW posters do this and I am so upset", 1) without acknowledging your (read: you and others') own behavior which has not been without "beration", tone trolling, passive aggressiveness, and general arm waving, 2) making false appeals to blog harm and message saturation (with all those silly, little assumptions that come with, like we all are one group, looking to convert people with a shiny message to our religion of science, etc.), which are both only opinion statements and very unable to be tested not to mention proven, and 3) a reframing of this issue as abuse. I'm sorry, that is flatly belittling to people who have actually been cyber bullied, or bullied for that matter, and who have suffered real abuse, I find to be absolutely incorrect, or rather, lacking full context.

I won't even get into the obvious part about the "arguments" usually stemming from drive by posts rehashing the latest debunked garbage being passed around the denial blogosphere, or from personal attacks again AGW supporters, Dr. Master's, the blog itself, or one of us in particular. In closing, I could really could not care less how you or others perceive my tone. I have answered many questions both on this blog and Dr. Rood's with sincerity and niceness (and have apologized when I stated something wrong, or misinterpreted an interaction), most of those people are really curious folks who are willing and wanting to learn more, some of them have become close enough to share real world information with, some are only trolls looking to goad and bait. Purposeful and direct attempts by those being disingenuous have not been met with niceness, and for that, I do not apologize, because these things require reciprocity in action, and quite frankly, that is my problem with all of this. If you want niceness Barefoot, then pick that rock to throw.
Record Report
Statement as of 7:45 PM CDT on July 19, 2015

... Record high temperature set at New Orleans Audubon Park...

a record high temperature of 100 degrees was set at New Orleans
Audubon Park today. This ties the old record of 100 set in 1915.
Quoting 523. Llamaluvr:

Hi Scott. It seems like you're predictions were right and we are in for a strong El Nino. Other than constipation, if this does turn into a Super El Nino what would the effects be for Florida?


Expect a Rainy Winter season across FL. Cooler than average too.
EPAC: Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolores will be sending some needed rain to Southern California. Also, 99E is getting better organized and become a named storm within 24 hrs.

WPAC: Tropical Storm Haola will be affecting Iwo To and Japan this week as it starts to get better organized in the environment surrounding it. It should be a typhoon by mid-week.

All else is quiet.

Read more...
Well, relevant to the topic of this blog post - strong thunderstorms have been pummeling southern Maine all evening, and none of it was in the forecast.
Weather Alerts
Excessive Heat Warning - St. Tammany Parish , Louisiana
LAZ040-MSZ080>082-200430- /O.CON.KLIX.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150721T0200Z/ ST. TAMMANY-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON... LACOMBE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT... BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER... ST. MARTIN 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT MONDAY... * TEMPERATURE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH

MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 113 AND 117 DEGREES. * DURATION...ABOUT 4 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS..TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN... AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS. && $$
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
945 PM EDT sun Jul 19 2015

Synopsis...
a cold front will cross the region late tonight and Monday.
Another cold front will cross the area late Tuesday into Tuesday
night.

Near term /through Monday/...
944 PM update...a stationary front remains across northern Maine
this evening. The front is less defined with the loss of daytime
heating...but is in the vicinity of kmlt. The front separates cool
and humid air from warmer and even high dew point air. A second
front extends from northern New York state to southern Maine and this
front is more or less a dew point front with dew points at or above 70f in
most areas south of the front. There is also a cold front that is
just west of the Saint Lawrence River that will sweep across Maine
overnight. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to
lift northeast and across the County Warning Area overnight. Some of the storms
may contain heavy dowpours and frequent lightning. Only minor
tweaks to the grids as more substantial updates were made earlier
in the evening. It appears that the last of the showers will
likely exit far northeast Maine by around middle-morning Monday.
There is the potential that it could turn unstable enough for some
additional showers and storms early-middle afternoon across the
southeast half of the County Warning Area...but will not make any changes to the
forecast beyond middle morning Monday at this time.

Previous discussion...
primary feature is a stationary front running across the northern
portion of the forecast area. Higher probability of showers
tonight as surface and upper level trough approach from the west
and move across the forecast area. Weak ridge will build in from
west later Monday. Weather...pop and quantitative precipitation forecast grids look good through
tonight so will not make any changes there but will adjust Monday
morning pop and weather to better fit neighboring office. Will use
the mosg25 for wind. For maximum temperature have use the bias
consensus all and for minimum temperature used the bias corrected
all blend.

&&

Short term /Monday night through Wednesday/...
although Monday night will be on the muggy side, we'll see a
brief break in the precipitation. But another cold front/pre-
frontal trough will bring more showers and thunderstorms to the
region on Tuesday. The trough will pass through during the
afternoon. Sbcapes will generally be 500- 1000 j/kg, though both
the latest NAM and GFS paint up to 1500 j/kg from Northwest Aroostook
down through Greenville. With precipitable waters of 1.5+ inches, expect
convection that develops during the afternoon will be capable of
producing briefly heavy rainfall. The actual frontal passage
doesn't occur until Tuesday evening, so have kept thunder in the
forecast through about midnight Tuesday night. Tuesday will be on
the muggy side with dewpoints in the 60s, while highs will range
from the middle 70s north to the lower 80s interior downeast.

For Wednesday...scattered showers will develop by the afternoon as
an upper low spins across central Ontario into Quebec. Wednesday's
high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than Tuesday, but it'll be a
bit less humid with dewpoints in the 50s.

&&
I see forecast lows in the 80s for New Orleans until July 28th. With the humidity, how did people stand it before air conditioning? I couldn't have.
537. txjac
Quoting 536. BaltimoreBrian:

I see forecast lows in the 80s for New Orleans until July 28th. With the humidity, how did people stand it before air conditioning? I couldn't have.


I wonder that all the time as I sit here in humid, hot Houston. I have to admit the humidity could be worse but its annoying if you have to be out in it for any time during the afternoon hours ...which I was and it was my fault ...never put off until tomorrow what you can do today.
I think that people that didnt have AC were acclimated to the heat. Growing in Ohio I could run around in a sweater and jeans when weather was in the 30's ...now when I visit and it gets to 70 in the evening I'm looking for long sleeves and a light sweater
One word, Architecture...,the pure Human thought.


Some New Orleanians have learned to live without air-conditioning
Print Katy Reckdahl, The Times-Picayune By Katy Reckdahl, The Times-Picayune
on September 16, 2012 at 5:59 AM




John P. Klingman wakes up in his century-old Garden District home to the sound of birds chirping and leaves blowing in the morning breeze. For Klingman, 65, that chorus is never interrupted by the din of his air conditioner cycling on and off. That's because he doesn't own one. For two decades, he has, by choice, lived through the city's legendarily sweaty summers without air-conditioning. "I don't make a big issue of it," said Klingman. "But it works for me."


fter Hurricane Isaac's widespread power outages, it became clear that living without air-conditioning was agony for most New Orleanians. But not all. Like Klingman, Eddie Toups also lives happily without air-conditioning in his house in Faubourg Jackson, not far from City Park. Toups, 39, is restoring his home, a family house built in 1919, and he originally planned to install air conditioning. "But now I probably won't go that route," he said, because he prefers life without it.

"It is miserable at times," Toups said. "But it's nice to have the windows open -- the sense of being connected to the outside."

Klingman, a professor at Tulane University's School of Architecture, knows theoretically that he could caulk up his Harmony Street house to make it airtight and create what some might consider an energy-efficient, air-conditioned environment. "But I don't think it's as nice a way to live," he said. Plus it wouldn't connect as well with the city's historic architecture, with its balconies and courtyards, he said. "One of the things people love about New Orleans is how the indoors and outdoors connect so well."

Klingman and Toups, both bachelors, are indoor scientists, working to control the sun's heat and keep air moving. Through experimentation, Toups discovered which windows to open for maximum air flow and how to sequester the morning's cool and afternoon heat in certain rooms. But he's still pondering whether to install shutters or solar shades to block the summer sun.

Klingman not only has shutters on every window, he has developed a better way to adjust the shutters' louvers for maximum airflow and minimum direct sun. Along with carpenter Jim O'Neil, he installed what he calls a "bowtie," a little rectangle of wood that sits beneath the louver bar and pivots on a center screw, precisely holding louvers at the angle he chooses.

Klingman, who teaches sustainability, bought his two-story, Emile Weil-designed house in 1989 and decided he'd practice what he teaches. And while he is author of the recently published "New in New Orleans Architecture," a recent tour through his house showed that he also could write a book about how to live without air conditioning.

In addition to his souped-up shutters, he fixed all his windows, so that they open and close easily. And while his upstairs panes are unscreened - better for airflow -- he installed screens on first-floor windows, which are within "the bug line," the sphere that bugs prefer, within roughly 15 feet of the ground.

During the day, he closes up the downstairs but keeps upper windows open to release hot air.

Three ground-floor screen doors and lots of open windows move air briskly, aided by ceiling fans, which are always running. Klingman said that moving air allows the human body to evaporate more moisture through the skin, allowing a person to feel comfortable even at higher temperatures. Savings can be deep: ceiling fans use about 10 percent of the energy an air conditioner would, he said.

more:..,
48 Hour rainfall totals kinda long.....Seems just about everyone got a litle something anyway. Thinking about 1.5" at my place (I will take it gladly) The 2 nearest weather reporting sites for last 48 hours reported .85 Warner Springs and Oak Grove 1.28....A most excellent couple days!


PRELIMINARY STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
730 PM PDT SUNDAY JUL 19 2015


PRELIMINARY 48-HOUR STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEKEND

_______________________AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY______________________________


.TOP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL ZONES

STATION PRECIP(IN) MILES/DIRECTION FROM

1. RAMONA 4.10 0 RAMONA
2. PINYON PINES RAWS 3.28 1S PINYON PINES
3. VOLCAN MOUNTAIN 2.69
4. RUNNING SPRINGS 2.67
5. PHELAN LANDFILL 2.64 1NE PHELAN
6. BLUE RIDGE 2.56
7. LAKE ARROWHEAD N 2.54
8. CAMP ELLIOT RAWS 2.52 8NNW SAN DIEGO
9. LIVE OAK CANYON 2.40 10SW IDYLLWILD
10.KEARNY MESA 2.39 6NNW SAN DIEGO


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
CAMP ELLIOT RAWS 2.52 539 8NNW SAN DIEGO
KEARNY MESA 2.39 455 6NNW SAN DIEGO
MONTGOMERY FIELD 2.33 423 6NNW SAN DIEGO
LINDBERGH FIELD 1.60 42 1NW SAN DIEGO
FASHION VALLEY 1.50 20 3N SAN DIEGO
POINT LOMA 0.96 364 4WSW SAN DIEGO
BROWN FIELD 0.90 524 5SE CHULA VISTA
LAS FLORES RAWS 0.64 100 9NW OCEANSIDE
ENCINITAS 0.63 242 0 ENCINITAS
SAN ONOFRE 0.62 162 7NNW OCEANSIDE
SAN MARCOS LANDFILL 0.54 766 3SW SAN MARCOS
OCEANSIDE 0.53 30 1N OCEANSIDE
CARLSBAD 0.48 305
CARLSBAD AIRPORT 0.48 357 3SE CARLSBAD
TIJUANA ESTUARY 0.28 20
GOAT CANYON 0.28 110
SMUGGLERS GULCH 0.20 74
EL CAMINO DEL NORTE 0.08 50 6SSW SAN MARCOS
SOLANA BEACH 0.01 75 0 SOLOANA BEACH


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
RAMONA 4.10 1420 0 RAMONA
GOOSE VALLEY RAWS 2.39 1530 2NNW RAMONA
RAMONA AIRPORT 2.27 1400 2W RAMONA
MIRAMAR LAKE 1.83 130 3ESE MIRA MESA
RINCON SPRINGS 1.76 970 5NE VALLEY CENTER
SANTEE 1.38 300 2W SANTEE
LAKE MURRAY 1.34 530 1NW LA MESA
POWAY 1.31 440 1SW POWAY
COLE GRADE RD 1.28 750 5N JULIAN
LA MESA 1.26 530 0 LA MESA
BARONA 1.22 1280 3SSE RAMONA
RANCHO BERNARDO 1.20 690 0 SGX OFFICE
MT. WOODSON 1.16 1720 4NW POWAY
LAKE WOHLFORD 1.14 1490 1SE VALLEY CENTER
CAMP TRGT RANGE RAWS 1.13 917 7W FALLBROOK
ESCONDIDO 0.99 640 0 ESCONDIDO
SKYLINE RANCH 0.96 562 2E VALLEY CENTER
LOWER OAT FLATS 0.95 2239 2E VALLEY CENTER
VALLEY CENTER 0.92 1295 0 VALLEY CENTER
RAINBOW CAMP 0.90 1553 2S TEMECULA
DULZURA SUMMIT 0.90 1512 8SE JAMUL
VALLEY CENTER RAWS 0.88 1370 1ENE VALLEY CENTER
SAN MIGUEL RAWS 0.86 425 7SSE LA MESA
SANDIA CK RD 0.76 342 1NE FALLBROOK
FALLBROOK 0.71 675 1S FALLBROOK
COUSER CANYON 0.71 285 1WSW VALLEY CENTER
ALPINE RAWS 0.66 2041 2ESE ALPINE
SD COUNTRY ESTATES 0.63 1660 5SE RAMONA
BONSALL CRS 0.56 185 3SSW FALLBROOK
FLINN SPRINGS 0.54 880 2E LAKESIDE
DEER SPRINGS 0.52 1000 1SE ESCONDIDO
LOS COCHES CREEK 0.44 560 4NNE EL CAJON
GRANITE HILLS 0.42 533 2E EL CAJON
HARBISON CANYON 0.40 1240 1SE LAKESIDE
PARADISE CREEK 0.35 950 3ENE VALLEY CENTER


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
VOLCAN MOUNTAIN 2.69 5410
PALOMAR CRS 2.09 2SW PALOMAR MT
LA JOLLA AMAGO 1.99 2400 9ENE VALLEY CENTER
BIRCH HILL 1.90 5645 2SSW PALOMAR MT
JULIAN RAWS 1.89 4240 0 JULIAN
JULIAN 1.84 4230 1E JULIAN
PALOMAR MOUNTAIN RAWS 1.37 5530 0 PALOMAR MT
HENSHAW DAM 1.33 2750 0 LAKE HENSHAW
PALOMAR OBSERVATORY 1.32 5560 0 PALOMAR MT
OAK GROVE RAWS 1.28 2770 2NE PALOMAR MT
ECHO DELL 1.20 3060 8NW PINE VALLEY
SANTA YSABEL 1.10 2990 3NW JULIAN
CAMERON RAWS 1.02 3443 4N CAMPO
DESCANSO RAWS 0.94 3480 7NW PINE VALLEY
MESA GRANDE 0.92 3204
VALLECITOS REPEATER 0.91 2945 6ENE VALLEY CENTER
PINE HILLS RAWS 0.87 3600 5SW JULIAN
WARNER SPRINGS 0.85 3040
PINE HILLS FS 0.85 3645 3SW JULIAN
PINE VALLEY 0.81 3730
DESCANSO RS 0.78 3650 4WNW PINE VALLEY
LAKE CUYAMACA 0.76 4560 1NE CUYAMACA MT
LA JOLLA ERN TANKS 0.51 3000 3SSW PALOMAR MT
CAMPO 1N 0.51 2610 1N CAMPO
OTAY MOUNTAIN RAWS 0.47 3283 7SSE JAMUL
RANCHITA RAWS 0.34 4180 5WSW BORREGO SPR
MOUNT LAGUNA RAWS 0.34 5760 2N PINE VALLEY
RANCHITA 0.30 4008 6WSW BORREGO SPR
TIERRA DEL SOL 0.27 4000 1W BOULEVARD
MT LAGUNA 0.26 6000 0 MT LAGUNA
CAMPO ASOS 0.09 2609 0 CAMPO


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
SAN FELIPE 0.79 2280 5ESE JULIAN
BORREGO PALM CANYON 0.19 790 1NW BORREGO SPR
COYOTE CK 0.19 1189
BORREGO SPRINGS 0.15 500 2ESE BORREGO SPR
AGUA CALIENTE 0.04 1222 5NE MOUNT LAGUNA
OCOTILLO WELLS 0.02 425 10SE BORRO SPR


.ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
ALAMEDA STORM CHANNEL 1.30 339 4S YORBA LINDA
VILLA PARK DAM 1.13 560 3SE YORBA LINDA
WESTMINSTER CHANNEL 1.11 40 2SW GARDEN GROVE
BEE CANYON 0.94 755 4NE IRVINE
BREA OLINDA 0.79 750 3NW YORBA LINDA
YORBA PARK 0.75 305 2SE YORBA LINDA
SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO 0.67 75 2NE DANA POINT
GILBERT RETARDING BSN 0.63 100 2WSW ANAHEIM
YORBA RESERVOIR 0.63 300 1S YORBA LINDA
MILLER BASIN 0.59 220 1SW YORBA LINDA
UPPER OSO CREEK 0.55 420 1E LAKE FOREST
BELL CANYON 0.55 700 7ENE SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO
BREA 2W 0.47 340 4NE FULLERTON
FULLERTON CREEK 0.47 95 0 FULLERTON
LAGUNA BCH @ WOODLAND 0.47 47 1NE LAGUNA BEACH
MOULTON PEAK REPEATER 0.47 888 3NE LAGUNA BEACH
SAN DIEGO CK @ CULVER 0.44 70 1SSE IRVINE
COTO DE CAZA 0.44 730 1ESE RANCHO SANTA MARG
FULLERTON AIRPORT 0.40 96 1W FULLERTON
LAGUNA AUDUBON 0.40 314 3W MISSION VIEJO
ANAHEIM BARBER CITY 0.39 5 1NE SEAL BEACH
CORONA DEL MAR 0.39 300 2E NEWPORT BEACH
LAGUNA CYN REPEATER 0.39 530 2NW LAGUNA BEACH
SAN JUAN GUARD 0.36 660 8E MISSION VIEJO
E GARDEN GVE/WNTRSBRG 0.36 120 2NW SANTA ANA
OCEANVIEW 0.36 43 3S GARDEN GROVE
PICO RETARDING BASIN 0.36 760 2NW SAN CLEMENTE
SAN DIEGO CK @ CAMPUS 0.31 20 0 IRVINE
UPPER ALISO CREEK 0.31 560 1ESE LAKE FOREST
GARDEN GROVE 0.28 80 2NW GARDEN GROVE
JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT 0.27 50 4W IRVINE
COSTA MESA 0.27 47 3NNE NEWPORT BEACH
HUNTINGTON BEACH 0.24 20 3N HUNTINGTON BEACH
SEGUNDA DESHECA 0.21 85 1NW SAN CLEMENTE
LAGUNA NIGUEL PARK 0.20 200 3E LAGUNA BEACH
SANTA ANA DELHI CHNL 0.19 24 3NE NEWPORT BEACH
SANTIAGO CREEK 0.16 120 1NNW SANTA ANA
SANTA ANA ENGINEERING 0.16 170 0 SANTA ANA
EL MODENA-IRVINE 0.16 70 2N IRVINE
PETERS CANYON WASH 0.08 40 3N IRVINE


.SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
MODJESKA CANYON 1.85 1260 5NE LAKE FOREST
SANTIAGO CREEK 1.61 1210 5NE LAKE FOREST
SANTIAGO PEAK 1.46 5660 0 SANTIAGO PK
EL CARISO RAWS 1.42 2660 1SW LAKE ELSINORE
UPPER SILVERADO CYN 1.38 2880 2N SANTIAGO PK
SILVERADO MOTORWAY 1.26 3969
EL CARISO 1.10 2600 2SW LAKE ELSINORE
FREMONT CANYON RAWS 1.01 1781 6SE YORBA LINDA
SANTA ROSA PLATEAU 0.89 1980 2SSW MURRIETA
SYLVAN MEADOWS 0.67 1892 3WSW MURRIETA
KSOX RADAR SITE 0.43 3092 7NW SANITAGO PK


.RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
PIGEON PASS DAM 2.01 1700 2NW MORENO VALLEY
LAKE MATTHEWS RAWS 1.97 1522 7SW CORONA
RIVERSIDE AIRPORT 1.54 847 1W RIVERSIDE
PERRIS CDF 1.38 924 0 PERRIS
GILMAN HOT SPRINGS 1.38 1511 4NE PERRIS
RIVERSIDE - MARCH ARB 1.11 1535 4SE RIVERSIDE
PORTRERO CANYON 1.10 2220 1W FULLERTON
HEMET/RYAN FIELD 1.10 1510 1WSW HEMET
RIVERSIDE SOUTH 1.06 875 0 RIVERSIDE
BEAUMONT RAWS 1.00 2680 1E BEAUMONT
NORCO 0.95 650 2N CORONA
BEAUMONT 0.87 2624 0 BEAUMONT
RAILROAD CANYON DAM 0.83 1420 2E LAKE ELSINORE
CRANSTON RAWS 0.81 1950 6E HEMET
TEMECULA 0.75 1180 0 TEMECULA
VAIL LAKE 0.73 1470 9E TEMECULA
FRENCH VALLEY AIRPORT 0.71 909 5NNE TEMECULA
CLARK RAWS 0.67 1718 6SW MORENO VALLEY
MURRIETA CK AT TENAJA 0.63 1100 0 MURRIETA
WOODCREST DAM 0.59 861 2S RIVERSIDE
MORENO-CLARK 0.59 1810 1E MORENO VALLEY
SKINNER LAKE 0.55 1700 4NE TEMECULA


.RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
PINYON PINES RAWS 3.28 4060 1S PINYON PINES
LIVE OAK CANYON 2.40 6000 10SW IDYLLWILD
KEENWILD RAWS 1.91 4920 6SW IDYLLWILD
POPPET FLAT RAWS 1.90 3830 4S BANNING
SNOW CK 7N IDYLLWILD 1.38 6800 3N SAN JACINTO PK
VISTA GRANDE 1.34 4939 6SE BANNING
VISTA GRANDE RAWS 1.34 4700 6WNW SAN JACINTO PK
ALLANDALE 1.22 5800 3NE IDYLLWILD
MOUNT SAN JACINTO 1.14 8616 1ENE MT SAN JAC PK
SAGE RAWS 1.01 2560 9SSE HEMET
BANNING BENCH 0.94 3619 5NE BEAUMONT
TICK RIDGE 0.59 4236 4NNW CABAZON


.COACHELLA VALLEY

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
WHITEWATER TROUT FARM 0.71 2200 6WNW DRT HOT SPRINGS
DEAD INDIAN BASIN 0.63 1050 20E INDO
THERMAL AIRPORT 0.60 -118 1W THERMAL
MORONGO VALLEY 4SSW 0.55 2400 4SSW MORONGO VALLEY
INDIO 0.48 -15 1NNE INDIO
GOLF CLUB DR. PS 0.39 330 2SE PALM SPRINGS
LOWER TAHQUITZ CREEK 0.35 560 1SW PALM SPRINGS
CATHEDRAL CANYON 0.35 605 1W CATHEDRAL CITY
PALM SPRINGS AIRPORT 0.33 425 IE PALMS SPRINGS
WIDE CANYON DAM 0.31 1530 7ESE DESERT HOT SPRINGS
KENT SEA FMS 3S MECCA 0.28 -205 3S MECCA
DESERT HOT SPRINGS 0.27 1228 1N 
Quoting 524. Dakster:

STS - When are you pedicting total climate collapse? Just so I can mark my calendar. I may need to move up my bucket list of things to do before then.


Quoting 530. StormTrackerScott:



Expect a Rainy Winter season across FL. Cooler than average too.
Thanks!
On Thursday night, the summit of Hawaii's tallest peak, 13,800-foot Manuna Kea, picked up around 2 inches of snow. Snow only stuck around until around midday on Friday, July 17th.

Snow on Mauna Kea is more common during the winter months, but snow can fall any time of the year if conditions are just right. In March of this past winter Hawaii got enough snow that people were powder skiing and sending road gaps.

Bridge collapses amid heavy rains near Coachella


A 30-foot section of eastbound Interstate-10 collapsed July 19, 2015. (Photo: KMIR)

COACHELLA, Calif. A bridge was swept away amid heavy rains Sunday in Desert Center, southeast of Joshua Tree National Park, prompting the closure of the 10 Freeway in both directions, according to the California Highway Patrol.

A 30-foot section of the eastbound interstates was washed away and the bridge is gone, according to CHP. The westbound side of the freeway, just west of State Route 177, was impassible due to uncertainty over whether it was structurally sound, KTLA reported.

A SigAlert was issued by CHP about 5:45 p.m.

Eastbound traffic was being rerouted at Chiriaco Summit, while westbound motorists were being redirected at Corn Springs.

Latest San Diego sounding shows 2.09 in PW Values........is that not more Florida like? Highest rainfall totals for last 48 hours is a small town of Ramona CA with 20,000 residents received 4.10 thus far.
Quoting 290. washingtonian115:

Hydrus I got up..cooked the kids a good breakfast..and you greet me with this!? Thank goodness is 10 days out.ECWMF makes Danny bad ass and he is coming at me for revenge of all the smack talk I did about the last one.lol.Let us not forget the one from 09...


To be fair 2009 Danny was an epic fail. XD you had all the merits to make fun of it.
Quoting 544. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Latest San Diego sounding shows 2.09 in PW Values........is that not more Florida like? Highest rainfall totals for last 48 hours is a small town of Ramona CA with 20,000 residents received 4.10 thus far.

You should ask the San Diego wx office if that is a record. The max band in San Diego in July is the 2.00" - 2.20" range.

Courtesy Scott Lincoln, from the LMRFC We're very lucky to have him here! Click images to expand.



Not necessarily a good thing if the humidity hangs on too long. But it won't.
Quoting 522. HiDesertRat:

It was raining in the San Joaquin Valley (Where they grow all the crops) earlier today when I drove through on my way back home from the coast.
Plenty of heat and humidity even in the evening up here in the SF Bay Area, but thus far, there have only been a very few pop-up showers in the region. Mostly dry, but feels like it could let loose at any moment. Radar is certainly lit up to the south.
Satellite shows the remnant circulation of Dolores is nearly abeam the US-Mexico border offshore and drifting northward, keeping much of California on its damp side. On its present heading, it would stay offshore, clearing Point Conception which would verify the early European Model, but the official forecasts currently have it turning northeastward and onshore in SoCal. We shall see.
As the Atlantic struggles, the next tropical cyclone for the East Pacific should be coming over the next 24 hours.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located about 800 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are favorable for further development, and a tropical depression
or a tropical storm is likely to form on Monday while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Lot's of 100's there, years, temp, ect.

Quoting 529. Patrap:

Record Report
Statement as of 7:45 PM CDT on July 19, 2015

... Record high temperature set at New Orleans Audubon Park...

a record high temperature of 100 degrees was set at New Orleans
Audubon Park today. This ties the old record of 100 set in 1915.

552. vis0
Wonder if SAR2401 got power knocked out. No update from a rare (for his block) annexing/joining of storms over SeBama.
Quoting 519. BaltimoreBrian:

Southern California is getting amazing rain! I hope it is enough to have a significant impact on the reservoirs in southern California. I also hope it doesn't trigger plant growth that dries into tinder by September, but for now it is wonderful!
Hi Brian,

I think you might have a basic misunderstanding of the capacity of the southern California reservoirs. See this page for some comparables.

Let's do the math, shall we?

Every reservoir which potentially could gain some fill from the recent rains across the Southland include Castaic Lake (325 KAF or thousands of acre feet), Lake Perris (about 100 KAF), Pine Flat (1000 KAF) and Millerton (520 KAF). Keep in mind most of these reservoirs are transfer locations for Northern California water on the way to delivery to MWD, LADWP and San Diego Water. The total KAF in these reservoirs is only partially recharged by local rains and their total capacity amounts to less than 2 MAF (millions of acre feet).

In comparison. Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, the two reservoirs experts keep their eyes on have a capacity to hold 8 MAF. Four times as much water.

The recent rains had zero impact on Shasta and Oroville.

Don't trouble yourself about the Southland reservoirs. They are not what you need to focus on, which is the volume of water in Shasta, Oroville, Lake Mead and Lake Powell.

Here' s a handy tool on the Colorado River reservoirs.
Remnant circulations of Enrique (about halfway between Mexico and Hawaii) and Dolores, just off Soo Cal/Baja causing a ruckus and record rainfall in Sooo Cal. Thank you Delores!

Quoting 519. BaltimoreBrian:

Southern California is getting amazing rain! I hope it is enough to have a significant impact on the reservoirs in southern California. I also hope it doesn't trigger plant growth that dries into tinder by September, but for now it is wonderful!


my opinion rain in southern cali is usually never a good thing in the summer
I was told in this blog the rainy season in California ended March 1st, it's been raining at different locations in California all year long, the trend is continuing, good luck California!
Good Morning

00z
Japan’s New Satellite Tracks Typhoons, Imitates Art


The 16 channels of light wavelengths that Japan's Himawari-8 satellite is capable of observing.
Credit: CIMSS.
leftovers of the invest as well as a rapidly moving west tropical wave should bring much needed rainfall to the leewards and even maybe windwards. 8am TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 55W/56W FROM
8N-22N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE 700 MB TROUGH S OF 14N AS DEPICTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODEL. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS N
OF 26N.
Quoting 528. Naga5000:



Something about he who is without sin casting the first stone....I can't remember how it goes, and I don't claim to know who fired the first shot, but all this "the AGW posters do this and I am so upset", 1) without acknowledging your (read: you and others') own behavior which has not been without "beration", tone trolling, passive aggressiveness, and general arm waving, 2) making false appeals to blog harm and message saturation (with all those silly, little assumptions that come with, like we all are one group, looking to convert people with a shiny message to our religion of science, etc.), which are both only opinion statements and very unable to be tested not to mention proven, and 3) a reframing of this issue as abuse. I'm sorry, that is flatly belittling to people who have actually been cyber bullied, or bullied for that matter, and who have suffered real abuse, I find to be absolutely incorrect, or rather, lacking full context.

I won't even get into the obvious part about the "arguments" usually stemming from drive by posts rehashing the latest debunked garbage being passed around the denial blogosphere, or from personal attacks again AGW supporters, Dr. Master's, the blog itself, or one of us in particular. In closing, I could really could not care less how you or others perceive my tone. I have answered many questions both on this blog and Dr. Rood's with sincerity and niceness (and have apologized when I stated something wrong, or misinterpreted an interaction), most of those people are really curious folks who are willing and wanting to learn more, some of them have become close enough to share real world information with, some are only trolls looking to goad and bait. Purposeful and direct attempts by those being disingenuous have not been met with niceness, and for that, I do not apologize, because these things require reciprocity in action, and quite frankly, that is my problem with all of this. If you want niceness Barefoot, then pick that rock to throw.


Well said Naga, but Thomas Jefferson put it more concisely:

Ridicule is a proper response to a ridiculous proposition.
Thank you for this summary of the testbed program. It is especially helpful for us amateurs to get an inside glimpse of the way technology is progressing. As a mathematician, I LOVE the use of hexagons for the gridding.
Insane! Look at this CPC update! Up to 1.7C now @ Enso 3.4.

15JUL2015
24.6 2.9 27.9 2.3 28.9 1.7 29.8 1.0
Quoting 566. StormTrackerScott:

Insane! Look at this CPC update! Up to 1.7C now @ Enso 3.4.

15JUL2015
24.6 2.9 27.9 2.3 28.9 1.7 29.8 1.0




all most at vary strong EL nino mark
Quoting 564. tampabaymatt:




You should see the Eur. The model has a developing Tropical Storm just off Tampa moving toward the FL Big Bend.
0Z Euro throws out the Holy Grail of rain across FL the next 10 days. Throw in a Tropical Storm could even be a hurricane before hitting Apalachicola if this pans out.

The good news: it's rained in SoCal the past few days, and, dire as things are there, any rain beats no rain.

The bad news: as you can see from the map below, with the exception of a few tiny and scattered patches south of Lake Tahoe, not a single square inch of the drought-stricken state has seen above normal precipitation since the beginning of the year. In fact, vast swaths of the state are eight inches to a foot or more below normal just since January 1 of this year (not to mention the deficits carried over from the previous two years). Given that, and the limited areal coverage of this weekend's very welcome showers, the situation is only very slightly less bleak than it was a few days. IOW: a drought-buster it ain't. Not even close...



Source: Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Good Morning. Here is the National forecast map for today:

National Weather Outlook
Hi everyone from Germany, now divided in a cooler and quite rainy north and a hot and sweltry south with me in the mid of the country somewhere in between. I spare you news of some more severe weather which hit locally in parts of Europe last weekend. But you may enjoy the video below of a rare waterdevil or better "riverdevil" which happened last week at Sommerhausen on Main River which is overheated (watch it especially from 1:00 on):


BTW, Sommerhausen is near Kitzingen where we've got our new national heat record some days earlier.

Moreover more European heatwave news:

Heatwave to grip Italy until end of July
The Local (Italy) Published: 20 Jul 2015 07:46 GMT 02:00
Italy's stifling heatwave is set to continue into next week, keeping temperatures in the high thirties.
Weather experts said the heatwave, called Caronte, will continue over the next week before subsiding towards the end of the month.
The endless heat looks as if it will propel July 2015 into the record books as the hottest month ever.
"Considering it's only July, and not in the summer in its entirety, it is the most intense heat wave in 70 years," Edoardo Ferrara, a meteorologist with 3bmeteo.com, said on Friday.
Temperatures will peak at 40 degrees Celsius in parts of Italy, before cooling off towards the end of the month, bringing potential thunderstorms to the north and central Italy. ...


Warning: third heatwave to bake sweltering Spain
The Local (Spain) Published: 20 Jul 2015 09:44 GMT 02:00
Spain is preparing for its third heatwave of the summer as 18 provinces are put on alert for high temperatures by the country's meteorological agency.

Romania Dealing With Searing Heatwave

African heatwave ready to scorch southern Turkey next week
A heatwave approaching from Africa will scorch Turkey next [= this] week, resulting in temperatures over 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) throughout the country, particularly in the Mediterranean and Southeast Anatolia regions. ...
June, July & August are the months we are most likely struck by lightning in the US. It's been raining lightning here frequently lately. Been having to remind people more and more as we get used to the sound of it and grow complacent...when thunder roars go indoors!

Nearly 2/3rd the deaths anymore come while enjoying a recreational activity. Saturday a Boeing 757 with 159 passengers was struck and landed safely, Friday a newlywed women was killed hiking in CO, her husband was still critical last I read.

Now the average number being struck is 40 per year with a near 90% survival rate. Back in the 1940s it was closer to 400 a year and many died as it was due to the use of corded phones and open top tractors. More on protecting yourself from lightning here.
If the Euro pans out not out of the question the US could have a developing hurricane just off FL moving north. Like I said many times before I am more concerned this year compared to years passed due to all these in close developments. Now is the time where could see these systems rapidly spin up close to home and cause serious problems. MDR remains dead and will more than likely remain that way going forward.

And the relative position of the Conus jet for today per GFS; looking again for the most shear issues in the area of the Great Lakes:

Quoting 573. Skyepony:

June, July & August are the months we are most likely struck by lightning in the US. It's been raining lightning here frequently lately. Been having to remind people more and more as we get used to the sound of it and grow complacent...when thunder roars go indoors!

Nearly 2/3rd the deaths anymore come while enjoying a recreational activity. Saturday a Boeing 757 with 159 passengers was struck and landed safely, Friday a newlywed women was killed in CO, her husband was still critical last I read.

Now the average number being struck is 40 per year with a near 90% survival rate. Back in the 1940s it was closer to 400 a year and many died as it was due to the use of corded phones and open top tractors. More on protecting yourself from lightning here.


Much more rain to come skye especially if a Tropical Storm forms just to our west this weekend.
Quoting 569. StormTrackerScott:

0Z Euro throws out the Holy Grail of rain across FL the next 10 days. Throw in a Tropical Storm could even be a hurricane before hitting Apalachicola if this pans out.


If anything from the last 3 years as well as the impending strong El Nino building, one would have to believe that this could be the rule of thumb for the remainder of the tropical season.  Seems that 20N to 30N range has been the sweet spot for tropical system in the Atlantic during that stretch, especially for the East Coast.  Now with El Nino cooking, I wouldn't at be surprise to see Florida take a strong tropical storm, or maybe even a minimal hurricane before the season is finished.  None the less it should be a wet fall down there...
All the orange is heat advisory today..

Latest update

6z run

Drove through Florida this weekend from North Florida to Ochoee and back taking 75-Turnpike in and the scenic route closer to the Gulf Coast back North yesterday. Rain is not a bad thing (everything was so green and lush across this portion of the state) unless you have to drive through it. Orlando area was relatively dry and the only patches of heavy rain were near Gainesville on the way in and closer to the Gulf Coast yesterday afternoon on HWY 98 North of Cedar Key. Afternoon boomers are a normal part of living in Florida in the summer; the biggest weather moment was yesterday driving on 98 through a t-storm when a bolt came straight down and hit on the side of the road less than a quarter mile in front of us. Pretty much instant strike-clap that woke up the Mother in Law in the back seat; told her all was fine and she went back to sleep.

Can't stress enough how important it is, when you drive in the rain in the daytime, to have a good pair of high quality polarized sun glasses with you (just leave them on when you drive rain or shine)...............They really cut down the glare and help you see the road and cars ahead of you so much better.
Quoting 577. ILwthrfan:


If anything from the last 3 years as well as the impending strong El Nino building, one would have to believe that this could be the rule of thumb for the remainder of the tropical season.  Seems that 20N to 30N range has been the sweet spot for tropical system in the Atlantic during that stretch, especially for the East Coast.  Now with El Nino cooking, I wouldn't at be surprise to see Florida take a strong tropical storm, or maybe even a minimal hurricane fore the season is finished.  None the less it should be a wet fall down there...



Euro develops it from a old cold front that stalls over FL this weekend. Euro has been showing this happening for days either west of FL or east of FL. Either way we need to watch whats going on around FL this weekend. Euro even hints that this could develop rapidly off Tampa. Wouldn't surprise me to see a hurricane out of this situation as the areas around FL are prime right now.

Quoting 570. Neapolitan:

The good news: it's rained in SoCal the past few days, and, dire as things are there, any rain beats no rain.

The bad news: as you can see from the map below, with the exception of a few tiny and scattered patches south of Lake Tahoe, not a single square inch of the drought-stricken state has seen above normal precipitation since the beginning of the year. In fact, vast swaths of the state are eight inches to a foot or more below normal just since January 1 of this year (not to mention the deficits carried over from the previous two years). Given that, and the limited areal coverage of this weekend's very welcome showers, the situation is only very slightly less bleak than it was a few days. IOW: a drought-buster it ain't. Not even close...



Source: Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Hopefully we can get a few more tropical systems to continue to re-curve up and towards the Northern Baja as the season progresses.  Southern Cal did get some nice rains yesterday and day prior, they just need to become more frequent and hopefully spread north in the process.

But...we all know the hazards that will carry from going way too dry to way too wet to quickly...
NWS is going to have to adjust the CFSv2 model as it is nearing 4C now. Very impressive to say the least mirroring the Euro. ONI good chance will reach 2.5C or higher.

What a Historic Weekend it was across Southern California as some of the higher elevation had over 3" of rain. This didn't even occur during the wet season last year.

Quoting 570. Neapolitan:

The good news: it's rained in SoCal the past few days, and, dire as things are there, any rain beats no rain.

The bad news: as you can see from the map below, with the exception of a few tiny and scattered patches south of Lake Tahoe, not a single square inch of the drought-stricken state has seen above normal precipitation since the beginning of the year. In fact, vast swaths of the state are eight inches to a foot or more below normal just since January 1 of this year (not to mention the deficits carried over from the previous two years). Given that, and the limited areal coverage of this weekend's very welcome showers, the situation is only very slightly less bleak than it was a few days. IOW: a drought-buster it ain't. Not even close...



Source: Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service



I haven't seen anyone call it a drought buster but the rain is certainly welcomed.
Quoting 584. StormTrackerScott:

What a Historic Weekend it was across Southern California as some of the higher elevation had over 3" of rain. This didn't even occur during the wet season last year.




dont warry i send them the bill for the rain they had any ways i think today will be are turn
Morning all...
Wow! This sounds so encouraging! Given the craziness of the politics around financing scientific advancements, it's great to see the scientists are still plugging away at the real problems ...
hmmm euro has 2 systems,GFS has had a Low off the Carolina's for a couple days now at this time..
GFS so far only has the one storm off the Carolina's next week..........
GEM model for later next week.............................................. ..
Quoting 532. MaineGuy:

Well, relevant to the topic of this blog post - strong thunderstorms have been pummeling southern Maine all evening, and none of it was in the forecast.
They shoulda used that heximetrogeopotential thingabobby talked about in the blog post ... :-)

I'm always excited about technological advances in meteorology, while remaining aware that true predictability is likely decades in our future...
In terms of this latest Blog (which I missed over the weekend), the improvements in forecasting and continued progress are remarkable; this is an incredible statistic:


According to Bill Skamarock, who leads the MPAS project at NCAR, this appears to be the first time that any model on Earth has carried out such high-resolution forecasting of showers and thunderstorms out to five days on a daily basis. “We have been pleasantly surprised as to how consistent, plausible, and even correct the longer-term forecasts from MPAS have been,” said Louis Wicker (NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory). 
Quoting 538. Patrap:

One word, Architecture...,the pure Human thought.


Some New Orleanians have learned to live without air-conditioning
Print Katy Reckdahl, The Times-Picayune By Katy Reckdahl, The Times-Picayune
on September 16, 2012 at 5:59 AM




John P. Klingman wakes up in his century-old Garden District home to the sound of birds chirping and leaves blowing in the morning breeze. For Klingman, 65, that chorus is never interrupted by the din of his air conditioner cycling on and off. That's because he doesn't own one. For two decades, he has, by choice, lived through the city's legendarily sweaty summers without air-conditioning. "I don't make a big issue of it," said Klingman. "But it works for me."


fter Hurricane Isaac's widespread power outages, it became clear that living without air-conditioning was agony for most New Orleanians. But not all. Like Klingman, Eddie Toups also lives happily without air-conditioning in his house in Faubourg Jackson, not far from City Park. Toups, 39, is restoring his home, a family house built in 1919, and he originally planned to install air conditioning. "But now I probably won't go that route," he said, because he prefers life without it.

"It is miserable at times," Toups said. "But it's nice to have the windows open -- the sense of being connected to the outside."

Klingman, a professor at Tulane University's School of Architecture, knows theoretically that he could caulk up his Harmony Street house to make it airtight and create what some might consider an energy-efficient, air-conditioned environment. "But I don't think it's as nice a way to live," he said. Plus it wouldn't connect as well with the city's historic architecture, with its balconies and courtyards, he said. "One of the things people love about New Orleans is how the indoors and outdoors connect so well."

Klingman and Toups, both bachelors, are indoor scientists, working to control the sun's heat and keep air moving. Through experimentation, Toups discovered which windows to open for maximum air flow and how to sequester the morning's cool and afternoon heat in certain rooms. But he's still pondering whether to install shutters or solar shades to block the summer sun.

Klingman not only has shutters on every window, he has developed a better way to adjust the shutters' louvers for maximum airflow and minimum direct sun. Along with carpenter Jim O'Neil, he installed what he calls a "bowtie," a little rectangle of wood that sits beneath the louver bar and pivots on a center screw, precisely holding louvers at the angle he chooses.

Klingman, who teaches sustainability, bought his two-story, Emile Weil-designed house in 1989 and decided he'd practice what he teaches. And while he is author of the recently published "New in New Orleans Architecture," a recent tour through his house showed that he also could write a book about how to live without air conditioning.

In addition to his souped-up shutters, he fixed all his windows, so that they open and close easily. And while his upstairs panes are unscreened - better for airflow -- he installed screens on first-floor windows, which are within "the bug line," the sphere that bugs prefer, within roughly 15 feet of the ground.

During the day, he closes up the downstairs but keeps upper windows open to release hot air.

Three ground-floor screen doors and lots of open windows move air briskly, aided by ceiling fans, which are always running. Klingman said that moving air allows the human body to evaporate more moisture through the skin, allowing a person to feel comfortable even at higher temperatures. Savings can be deep: ceiling fans use about 10 percent of the energy an air conditioner would, he said.

more:..,
TREES. In the Bahamas we used to rely on the persistent easterlies and the shade of large trees to make it through this. Additionally the older folk got up early and did as much of the physical tasks as possible, and stayed out of the noonday and afternoon sun afap.
99E looking good this morning.

Quoting 585. Bucsboltsfan:



I haven't seen anyone call it a drought buster but the rain is certainly welcomed.
Nor have I. And yes, it is...
Orleans Parish Severe Watches & Warnings

Heat Advisory

Statement as of 3:43 AM CDT on July 20, 2015

... Heat advisory in effect from noon today to 4 PM CDT this
afternoon...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a heat
advisory... which is in effect from noon today to 4 PM CDT this
afternoon.

* Temperature... high temperatures are expected to be in the mid 90s
with maximum heat index values ranging between 108 and 112
degrees.

* Duration... about 3 to 5 hours this afternoon.

* Impacts..take extra precautions if you work or spend time
outside. When possible... reschedule strenuous activities to
early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat
exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose
fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water.

* Impacts... heat stress potential in an oppressively humid
condition if proper precautions are not taken.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned
room... stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and
neighbors.


Quoting 594. Torito:

99E looking good this morning.


agreed. Should be a named storm later today...
A fresh new Chart, for a Monday.

We are where?


: P



Quoting 530. StormTrackerScott:



Expect a Rainy Winter season across FL. Cooler than average too.


Possible for snow or ice event for the northern regions?
Quoting 600. Patrap:

A fresh new Chart, for a Monday.

We are where?


: P




Lol... where were you when I needed this last week? :-)
Well Scott I see Niño 3.4 has reached 1.7C well I am indeed impressed
I still say it will peak at or below 2.0 (I say more just below 2.0)
Quoting 601. Stormwatch247:



Possible for snow or ice event for the northern regions?


Yup if colder air can get entrained in some of these systems. Sub Surface anomalies are strengthening so fast its almost hard to keep up as there have been as much as 3C to 4C changes at the sub surface. All of this is a result of a record WWB late June into July. Infact stronger than the one that started the 1997 Super El-Nino so essentially we are a month behind 1997 but will quickly catch up in August and surpass 1997 levels across Nino 3.4.

ESPI is increasing fast too!

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 2.48

This used to be a forest. Photograph: Richard Ellis/Corbis

America must lead the climate change fight or our leadership record is toast

More prosperous countries have the largest carbon emissions and poorer countries bear the consequences


The atmosphere is warming. Ice is melting. Droughts are worsening; seas are warming, rising and acidifying. We’re past theory and well into measurement on those points. Pope Francis recently observed that “[n]ever have we so hurt and mistreated our common home as we have in the last 200 years.” The matter of climate change is urgent, and it commands a moral dimension.

The United States has an especially strong responsibility to respond to this, the moral issue of our age. We have long been viewed globally as an exceptional country, with the world’s most powerful economy and military and a government that provides basic freedoms for its citizens. An American failure to lead on climate change will imperil our special status and dampen our global power to lead.

Climate change is causing irreparable harm to people who can least afford to respond. While upper-income societies can pay a greater share of their wealth for essentials as scarcity increases, marginal societies must go without. Their struggles – for water, farmland and fisheries – will be desperate, generating instability and conflict.

The US Department of Defense’s Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) repeatedly raises this key threat. The 2010 QDR concluded that “[w]hile climate change alone does not cause conflict, it may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and militaries around the world.” Four years later, the 2014 Review was just as straightforward in its warnings.

The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment echoes what our military and diplomatic leaders are saying about the dangers of climate change: “climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and inter-group violence by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks.”

A world of heightened competition, conflict and instability will lead to more human suffering, and open the door to greater instability and extremism.

As the country that generated the most wealth in the carbon economy, as the world’s most profligate emitter of carbon and as the essential nation upon which the world counts for leadership, we have a moral obligation to respond. America cannot avoid ownership of this challenge.

We are in a period of consequences. Yet we are in a period of political crisis at home. Carbon polluters are calling the tune in Congress; the present Republican party is unwilling or unable to stand up to the polluters; and a massive propaganda effort is churning full-steam to deny the carbon problem. The Obama administration has in the face of congressional dysfunction moved forward with new carbon pollution limits for power plants, and we applaud its efforts. But if we are to be seen as credible in the eyes of a world ravaged by the effects of climate change, Congress will need to step in and build upon those efforts to produce further reductions in emissions. And we will need to encourage international efforts to reach a climate agreement like those slated for Paris this year.

If you believe, as we do, that the world needs America – if you believe, as we do, that America is the essential and exceptional nation – then getting climate right matters. A world fouled and changed by carbon pollution, in ways many in Congress foresaw but ignored, will not believe it has much need for the example America claims to offer. As Pope Francis said, “Those who will have to suffer the consequences of what we are trying to hide will not forget this failure of conscience and responsibility.”

Failing to lead at this moment of necessity will soon and long darken the lamp America holds up to the world. And the tide that has quietly sustained us could begin to shift.
Quoting 602. BahaHurican:

Lol... where were you when I needed this last week? :-)


Most likely mopping up behind Miss Nola Roux's 6, 6 week old German Shepherd Puppies.

So true Ryan have already seen the headlines this morning.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 11h11 hours ago
Even tho there's a strong El NIno & remnants of a hurricane, SoCal & SW monsoon rains are mostly due to climate change. #tomorrowsheadlines
Quoting 605. Patrap:


This used to be a forest. Photograph: Richard Ellis/Corbis

America must lead the climate change fight or our leadership record is toast

More prosperous countries have the largest carbon emissions and poorer countries bear the consequences


The atmosphere is warming. Ice is melting. Droughts are worsening; seas are warming, rising and acidifying. We’re past theory and well into measurement on those points. Pope Francis recently observed that “[n]ever have we so hurt and mistreated our common home as we have in the last 200 years.” The matter of climate change is urgent, and it commands a moral dimension.

The United States has an especially strong responsibility to respond to this, the moral issue of our age. We have long been viewed globally as an exceptional country, with the world’s most powerful economy and military and a government that provides basic freedoms for its citizens. An American failure to lead on climate change will imperil our special status and dampen our global power to lead.

Climate change is causing irreparable harm to people who can least afford to respond. While upper-income societies can pay a greater share of their wealth for essentials as scarcity increases, marginal societies must go without. Their struggles – for water, farmland and fisheries – will be desperate, generating instability and conflict.

The US Department of Defense’s Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) repeatedly raises this key threat. The 2010 QDR concluded that “[w]hile climate change alone does not cause conflict, it may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and militaries around the world.” Four years later, the 2014 Review was just as straightforward in its warnings.

The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment echoes what our military and diplomatic leaders are saying about the dangers of climate change: “climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and inter-group violence by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks.”

A world of heightened competition, conflict and instability will lead to more human suffering, and open the door to greater instability and extremism.

As the country that generated the most wealth in the carbon economy, as the world’s most profligate emitter of carbon and as the essential nation upon which the world counts for leadership, we have a moral obligation to respond. America cannot avoid ownership of this challenge.

We are in a period of consequences. Yet we are in a period of political crisis at home. Carbon polluters are calling the tune in Congress; the present Republican party is unwilling or unable to stand up to the polluters; and a massive propaganda effort is churning full-steam to deny the carbon problem. The Obama administration has in the face of congressional dysfunction moved forward with new carbon pollution limits for power plants, and we applaud its efforts. But if we are to be seen as credible in the eyes of a world ravaged by the effects of climate change, Congress will need to step in and build upon those efforts to produce further reductions in emissions. And we will need to encourage international efforts to reach a climate agreement like those slated for Paris this year.

If you believe, as we do, that the world needs America – if you believe, as we do, that America is the essential and exceptional nation – then getting climate right matters. A world fouled and changed by carbon pollution, in ways many in Congress foresaw but ignored, will not believe it has much need for the example America claims to offer. As Pope Francis said, “Those who will have to suffer the consequences of what we are trying to hide will not forget this failure of conscience and responsibility.”

Failing to lead at this moment of necessity will soon and long darken the lamp America holds up to the world. And the tide that has quietly sustained us could begin to shift.



Is that the MDR only thing missing is the dust in the background.
All the Worlds weather now takes place in a Warmer, more WV laden atmosphere.

Good obs fo a "tweeter".

: )
Quoting 609. Patrap:

All the Worlds weather now takes place in a Warmer, more WV laden atmosphere.

Good obs fo a "tweeter".

: )


Super Strong El-Nino will continue to allow storms that form in the E-Pac to continue to impact Cali/SW US thru September at times given this sea surface signature.

The drought is really severe now.. possibly unprecedented. Only 2.5mm in St Martin so far this month, and 10mm here.







At least the sal is gone for now... could allow some light and quick showers.

The webcams have been upgraded to improve quality and definition.
Quoting 613. CaribBoy:




At least the sal is gone for now... could allow some light and quick showers.
The webcams have been upgraded to improve quality and definition.

This is really locking bad, CaribBoy. Are those trees and shrubs dead or will they become green again once you get enough rain?
Quoting 614. Patrap:




That really shows the Carib is closed for business.
Nice spin on that Africa wave.

Quoting 616. rmbjoe1954:



That really shows the Carib is closed for business.


For now. Caribbean has been getting less and less destructive. Another 2-3 weeks should show possibilities.
Quoting 615. barbamz:


This is really locking bad, CaribBoy. Are those trees and shrubs dead or will they become green again once you get enough rain?


Yes, the drought is really bad this year compared with 2013/2014. And I don't see an end anytime soon.

The trees are definitely struggling, and many lost all their leaves. But they are still alive, and should become green again if we get some good rains during the coming fall. But if we don't and must wait until mid 2016 for decent rainfall, some may die.

El Nino is the main culprit.
Had a nice lunch meeting with wunderblogger Koritheman and another here in New Orleans yesterday.
Kori is a cool cat and really smart on weather, esp the tropics.


Meteosat 0 degree Imagery Infrared 10.8 Color AFRICA
Quoting 606. Patrap:



Most likely mopping up behind Miss Nola Roux's 6, 6 week old German Shepherd Puppies.


I know what your going through..For example, we had a litter of 11 in 1995..The Mother weighed 195 lbs in a box of 1 lb pups. They grow huge quick, as does the task of cleaning the muck. Heat index was 105 here yesterday. The hottest in a few years.
Quoting 593. BahaHurican:

TREES. In the Bahamas we used to rely on the persistent easterlies and the shade of large trees to make it through this. Additionally the older folk got up early and did as much of the physical tasks as possible, and stayed out of the noonday and afternoon sun afap.
In Houston, everyone had attic fans. We closed the windows on the sunny side of the house and opened them on the shady side. My family couldn't afford a window AC unit until I was 10.

It was bloody miserable from mid-May thru September. It's no accident that none of us kids were conceived during those months. ;^)
Indeed hydrus, She had a litter of 8 June 6th, or D Day.

She had 5 the night of Isaac here in Aug 2012. So this is it for Her.

She a good Momma too.


Audubon Park tied the July 19th record of 100F yesterday here, and it was AWFUL.


We had a Mothership roll thru round 9pm last night and dropped us to 79F and It felt like fall to me.


Record Report

Statement as of 11:30 PM CDT on July 19, 2015

... Record high temperature set at Slidell...

a record high temperature of 99 degrees was set at Slidell
today. This breaks the old record of 98 set in 1980.
cmc is showing something trying to get going just east of georgia and north fl.
Quoting 593. BahaHurican:

TREES. In the Bahamas we used to rely on the persistent easterlies and the shade of large trees to make it through this. Additionally the older folk got up early and did as much of the physical tasks as possible, and stayed out of the noonday and afternoon sun afap.


My DC metro home was built in 1919 (front half) and is designed for good air circulation (uuhh a problem in winter). I might try this when the kids are out of the house.

The house above the street has a rock pit for several feet below the entire basement and a grate in the basement to draw in the cooler air.. also built in 1919.

My ancient decaying car at FSU did not have AC. I did have it in my apartment.

There is three northern Indiana reservoirs that are at record levels and not but a foot or two from their spillways. They protect the towns of Wabash, Peru and Logansport from extreme flooding.
The part of Maine I grew up in had a slightly different method for dealing with summertime temperatures, we called it a "woodstove". :)

Not uncommon to get up in mid July at 0500 in the morning to 41F and made the mistake of leaving all the windows open the previous night and it would be freezing cold and damp inside the house. Light up the stove for a few hours to drive the chill out. Days like that would probably only top out at 68F to 70F anyway.
Looks like eastbound I-10 at the Arizona/California border will be closed a while. There was some people lucky not to die in that flood induced bridge collapse.
Quoting 628. Skyepony:

There is three northern Indiana reservoirs that are at record levels and not but a foot or two from their spillways. They protect the towns of Wabash, Peru and Logansport from extreme flooding.
Yep..Seems like whenever there is a Nino, the cental regions of the U.S. suffer epic flooding..1993 flood comes to mind..1951 and 1973 were bad too...1844 was not documented well, but was severe....Link

Once the temperature reaches 80 degrees inside the house (with high dewpoints), I start to become very uncomfortable and I have difficulty sleeping at night.

I have friends that live in San Antonio, Texas that don't use any AC. At about 7 pm in the evening, the temperature can be in the low 90s inside their house. The only time I wasn't miserable was from about 5am to about 12 pm, after that it was pure torture.
Quoting 630. Skyepony:

Looks like eastbound I-10 at the Arizona/California border will be closed a while. There was some people lucky not to die in that flood induced bridge collapse.



That would be this EAS event we saw yesterday evening here.

Quoting 482. Patrap:

073  
WGUS55 KPSR 200021  
FFWPSR  
CAC065-200315-  
/O.NEW.KPSR.FF.W.0007.150720T0021Z-150720T0315Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ  
521 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
SOUTH CENTRAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...  
 
* UNTIL 815 PM PDT  
 
* AT 513 PM PDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT INTERSTATE 10  
AT EAGLE MOUNTAIN ROAD HAS BEEN CLOSED...DUE TO A BRIDGE COLLAPSE.
 
THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING ALONG INTERSTATE 10 FROM EAGLE  
MOUNTAIN ROAD INTO DESERT CENTER DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...WITH DOPPLER  
RADAR ESTIMATES SHOWING 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN THE  
WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATING MORE STORMS  
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THESE STORMS COULD CAUSE  
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THE AREA.  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
DESERT CENTER.  
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
WARNED AREA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.  
 
DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.  
 
STAY AWAY OR BE SWEPT AWAY. RIVER BANKS AND CULVERTS CAN BECOME  
UNSTABLE AND UNSAFE.  
 
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD  
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.  
 
PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU  
CAN DO SO SAFELY.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3384 11531 3344 11530 3343 11568 3384 11566  
 
 
 
MP  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab AZ Page

The Nexlab CA Page

Main Text Page


I'm curious - is MPAS related to FIM? FIM, from my reading, uses an 'isocahedral' grid which has hexagonal shaped tiles, with a few pentagonal ones, but I don't remember them varying in size like those pictured.
Quoting 633. JRRP:

wave in Africa
Looks like a TD.
The outflow boundaries from the Coastal Storms are heading N and may bring us some relief early today. Hopefully

Tropical trouble next week?
Looks like Danny will be coming back for revenge this year xD.lol I want it to form on the gulf side of Florida....Tired of dealing with storms up here.Already had enough dealing with our unusual thunderstorms.

And looks like no snowball will be thrown on Capital Hill today as temperatures will be in the upper 90's with humidity making it feel like 105-110 degrees outside.Yesterday D.C reached 98...we could surpass that today.
Quoting 640. Patrap:


remember that one...i flew away..:)
Quoting 639. washingtonian115:

Looks like Danny will be coming back for revenge this year xD.lol I want it to form on the gulf side of Florida....Tired of dealing with storms up here.Already had enough dealing with our unusual thunderstorms.

And looks like no snowball will be thrown on Capital Hill today as temperatures will be in the upper 90's with humidity making it feel like 105-110 degrees outside.Yesterday D.C reached 98...we could surpass that today.
This will help cool down.
Quoting 639. washingtonian115:

Looks like Danny will be coming back for revenge this year...
No-o-o-o-o!!

Danny knocked out my power for two days!
Quoting 639. washingtonian115:

Looks like Danny will be coming back for revenge this year xD.lol I want it to form on the gulf side of Florida....Tired of dealing with storms up here.Already had enough dealing with our unusual thunderstorms.

And looks like no snowball will be thrown on Capital Hill today as temperatures will be in the upper 90's with humidity making it feel like 105-110 degrees outside.Yesterday D.C reached 98...we could surpass that today.
Send it here, we'll take it.
Quoting 639. washingtonian115:

And looks like no snowball will be thrown on Capital Hill today as temperatures will be in the upper 90's with humidity making it feel like 105-110 degrees outside.Yesterday D.C reached 98...we could surpass that today.
I hope Inhofe gets a heat rash.
Quoting 639. washingtonian115:

Looks like Danny will be coming back for revenge this year xD.lol I want it to form on the gulf side of Florida....Tired of dealing with storms up here.Already had enough dealing with our unusual thunderstorms.

And looks like no snowball will be thrown on Capital Hill today as temperatures will be in the upper 90's with humidity making it feel like 105-110 degrees outside.Yesterday D.C reached 98...we could surpass that today.

Model guidance are actually potentially showing 2 storms. One on either side of Florida. And with 28-31 degrees Celsius water temps , and a favorable upper level environment, they have the potential to strengthen significantly. The culprit behind this setup, is an upper level frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley and the Northeast U.S.. This front should exit the east coast and gulf coast by Wednesday and Thursday, and become nearly stationary by Friday and Saturday. This scenario will set us up for at least one cyclone, maybe 2 on either side of Florida, near the panhandle, and near the Bahamas.
Quoting 649. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Model guidance are actually potentially showing 2 storms. One on either side of Florida. And with 28-31 degrees Celsius water temps , and a favorable upper level environment, they have the potential to strengthen significantly. The culprit behind this setup, is an upper level frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley and the Northeast U.S.. This front should exit the east coast and gulf coast by Wednesday and Thursday, and become nearly stationary by Friday and Saturday. This scenario will set us up for at least one cyclone, maybe 2 on either side of Florida, near the panhandle, and near the Bahamas.
Convective feedback?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 650. Gearsts:

Convective feedback?

I would think if any low were to develop it would left behind piece of energy at the tail end of the front. Where that energy is located is key is it in the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic? That could be why the models are showing two systems which might really only be one. Of course proximity to land is important too.

West Antarctica,October 2014 NASA

The world’s most famous climate scientist just outlined an alarming scenario for our planet’s future

By Chris Mooney July 20 at 10:37 AM

James Hansen has often been out ahead of his scientific colleagues.

With his 1988 congressional testimony, the then-NASA scientist is credited with putting the global warming issue on the map by saying that a warming trend had already begun. “It is time to stop waffling so much and say that the evidence is pretty strong that the greenhouse effect is here,” Hansen famously testified. Since then, he has drawn headlines for accusing the Bush administration of trying to muzzle him, getting arrested protesting the Keystone XL Pipeline, and setting forward the case for why carbon dioxide levels need to be kept below 350 parts per million in the atmosphere (they’re currently around 400).

Now Hansen — who retired in 2013 from his NASA post, and is currently an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s Earth Institute — is publishing what he says may be his most important paper. Along with 16 other researchers — including leading experts on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets — he has authored a lengthy study outlining an scenario of potentially rapid sea level rise combined with more intense storm systems.

It’s an alarming picture of where the planet could be headed — and hard to ignore, given its author. But it may also meet with considerable skepticism in the scientific community, given that its scenarios of sea level rise occur more rapidly than those ratified by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its latest assessment of the state of climate science, published in 2013.

“We conclude that 2°C global warming above the preindustrial level, which would spur more ice shelf melt, is highly dangerous,” note Hansen and his co-authors. 2 degrees Celsius is a widely accepted international target for how much the world should limit global warming.

The research is slated to appear this week in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, an open-access journal published by the European Geophysical Union in which much of the peer review process, in effect, happens in public — a paper is uploaded, and then other scientists submit comments on it, and then the authors respond.

The research takes, as one of its starting points, evidence regarding accelerating ice loss from some parts of the planet’s ice sheets, especially West Antarctica. One of Hansen’s co-authors on the new paper, Eric Rignot of NASA, was the lead author of a 2014 study suggesting that, as one NASA press release put it, the decline of West Antarctica could now be “irreversible.”


more:,...
Quoting 645. Gearsts:

Send it here, we'll take it.


We will also take more tropical moisture here in SoCal.
Quoting 607. StormTrackerScott:

So true Ryan have already seen the headlines this morning.
You have? I've yet to see a single headline anywhere attributing this weekend's record SoCal rainfall to climate change. Since you've "already seen" them, I'm sure you won't mind sharing them with us. TIA.

Personally, though, I'm with Maue and you. That is, I'm convinced that this summer's multiple recordbreaking heat waves in the US, Europe, and Asia--and the ongoing unprecedented California drought, and the unheard-of rainfalls in Oklahoma and Texas and Illinois and Indiana and Ohio, and the crazy heat and forest fires in Alaska and Siberia, and the disappearing Arctic sea ice, and the fact that precipitation records for several SoCal locations were smashed beyond recognition this weekend, and so on and so forth--have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that 2015 is likely to be the warmest year ever in the recorded history of mankind. It's clearly all just coincidence...
Quoting 647. Climate175:




Long ago in a land far far away