Hurricane Hector

Last Updated: 8/13/2018, 3:00:00 PM (UTC)

  • Location: 25.3 N 179.8 E
  • Movement: WNW at 15 mph
  • Wind: 50 mph
  • Pressure: 29.56 in

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370
WTPA41 PHFO 131458
TCDCP1

Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number  53
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
500 AM HST Mon Aug 13 2018

The core of Hector has been nearly devoid of deep convection since
late Sunday afternoon. The most recent estimate of vertical wind
shear from SHIPS is about 16 knots from the southwest. A few
thunderstorms have recently developed in the northwest semicircle
far from the exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC). However,
this does not appear to be enough to revive Hector in the near
future. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are
T3.0/45 knots from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC. The UW-CIMSS ADT estimate
is T2.0/30 knots. Based on all of this guidance, we are lowering
the initial intensity to 45 knots, which may be generous, for this
advisory.

Since we can easily monitor the movement of the exposed LLCC in
satellite imagery, the initial motion is set at 290/15 knots. The
track forecast has been adjusted only slightly from the previous
one. Again, the latest model guidance remains tightly clustered
through 72 hours, with the spread in the forecast tracks increasing
on Days 4 and 5. Hector is expected to continue on a west-northwest
track along the eastern periphery of a retrograding upper-level low
located west of the International Date Line near Longitude 171E. As
this low aloft continues to move west, an upper level ridge is
forecast to build north of the Hector. This will likely steer the
tropical storm toward the west-northwest during the next 48 hours. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected around 72 hours,
followed by a turn toward the north on days 4 and 5, as Hector
rounds the western end of the ridge. The latest forecast track
remains very close to the consensus guidance. Note that since the
system is sheared, the forecast track is also close to the TABS
through 48 hours.

The latest intensity forecast is adjusted downward due to the
continued relatively rapid weakening of Hector. The forecast
guidance shows the shear may relax within 12 to 24 hours, but the
system will likely be weaker by this time. In addition, it will be
moving over cooler sea surface temperatures. The intensity guidance
is in fairly good agreement through 36 hours, so confidence during
this portion of the forecast is fairly good. Most of the intensity
guidance levels off during the 36 through 48 hour time frame, while
the SHIPS guidance and GFS indicate some unrealistic strengthening.
The main weakening trend is during days 3 through 5. In addition,
Hector is forecast to transition to an extratropical system in about
96 hours.

Note that large breaking waves will likely persist this morning
along portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, especially
in the vicinity of Kure Atoll and Midway Atoll, due to south and
southeast swells generated by Hector.

This will be the final advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on this system. The next bulletin will be issued by RSMC
Tokyo Japan. For U.S. interests, see Department of Defense warnings
issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 25.3N 179.8E   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 26.2N 177.4E   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 27.4N 174.2E   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 28.5N 171.1E   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 29.9N 168.1E   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 33.0N 164.0E   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 37.5N 163.5E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  18/1200Z 43.5N 166.5E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Houston

Learn more about Hurricane Hector and the 2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

View All Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones

Storm Track Statistics

Jul 31
21:00 GMT
12.7°
-116.7°
35 mph 1007 mb
Tropical Depression
-
Aug 1
03:00 GMT
13.0°
-118.2°
40 mph 1006 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Aug 1
09:00 GMT
13.4°
-119.4°
40 mph 1006 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Aug 1
15:00 GMT
13.8°
-120.4°
45 mph 1004 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Aug 1
21:00 GMT
13.8°
-121.2°
50 mph 1002 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Aug 2
03:00 GMT
14.0°
-122.2°
60 mph 1000 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Aug 2
09:00 GMT
14.3°
-123.4°
70 mph 995 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Aug 2
14:00 GMT
14.2°
-124.4°
85 mph 987 mb
Hurricane
1
Aug 2
15:00 GMT
14.2°
-124.6°
85 mph 987 mb
Hurricane
1
Aug 2
21:00 GMT
14.1°
-125.8°
110 mph 973 mb
Hurricane
2
Aug 3
03:00 GMT
14.1°
-126.9°
110 mph 973 mb
Hurricane
2
Aug 3
09:00 GMT
14.0°
-127.8°
105 mph 975 mb
Hurricane
2
Aug 3
15:00 GMT
14.1°
-128.8°
90 mph 983 mb
Hurricane
1
Aug 3
21:00 GMT
14.1°
-129.8°
105 mph 975 mb
Hurricane
2
Aug 4
03:00 GMT
14.2°
-130.9°
120 mph 967 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 4
09:00 GMT
14.3°
-131.7°
120 mph 962 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 4
15:00 GMT
14.2°
-132.7°
120 mph 962 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 4
21:00 GMT
14.2°
-133.7°
125 mph 957 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 5
03:00 GMT
14.3°
-134.7°
130 mph 953 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 5
09:00 GMT
14.4°
-135.7°
125 mph 957 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 5
15:00 GMT
14.4°
-136.9°
125 mph 957 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 5
21:00 GMT
14.4°
-138.0°
130 mph 952 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 6
00:00 GMT
14.5°
-138.6°
140 mph 947 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 6
03:00 GMT
14.7°
-139.2°
140 mph 947 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 6
09:00 GMT
14.9°
-140.6°
140 mph 947 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 6
15:00 GMT
15.0°
-141.9°
145 mph 941 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 6
21:00 GMT
15.2°
-143.1°
155 mph 936 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 7
00:00 GMT
15.5°
-143.9°
155 mph 936 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 7
03:00 GMT
15.7°
-144.7°
155 mph 936 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 7
06:00 GMT
15.8°
-145.6°
155 mph 936 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 7
09:00 GMT
15.8°
-146.3°
145 mph 938 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 7
12:00 GMT
15.9°
-147.1°
130 mph 947 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 7
15:00 GMT
16.1°
-147.8°
130 mph 947 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 7
18:00 GMT
16.3°
-148.5°
130 mph 947 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 7
21:00 GMT
16.4°
-149.1°
130 mph 950 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 8
00:00 GMT
16.4°
-150.0°
130 mph 952 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 8
03:00 GMT
16.6°
-150.7°
130 mph 952 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 8
06:00 GMT
16.6°
-151.6°
130 mph 952 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 8
09:00 GMT
16.5°
-152.2°
125 mph 956 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 8
12:00 GMT
16.4°
-153.1°
125 mph 956 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 8
15:00 GMT
16.4°
-153.9°
125 mph 956 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 8
17:00 GMT
16.4°
-154.3°
125 mph 956 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 8
18:00 GMT
16.5°
-154.5°
120 mph 960 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 8
19:00 GMT
16.5°
-154.8°
115 mph 959 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 8
20:00 GMT
16.5°
-155.0°
115 mph 959 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 8
21:00 GMT
16.5°
-155.3°
115 mph 959 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 9
03:00 GMT
16.7°
-156.8°
115 mph 959 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 9
09:00 GMT
16.6°
-158.5°
115 mph 959 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 9
15:00 GMT
16.6°
-160.1°
120 mph 957 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 9
18:00 GMT
16.7°
-160.8°
120 mph 957 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 9
21:00 GMT
16.9°
-161.5°
120 mph 957 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 10
00:00 GMT
17.0°
-162.4°
120 mph 957 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 10
03:00 GMT
17.1°
-162.8°
125 mph 955 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 10
06:00 GMT
17.2°
-163.7°
125 mph 955 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 10
09:00 GMT
17.4°
-164.4°
130 mph 951 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 10
12:00 GMT
17.6°
-165.2°
130 mph 951 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 10
15:00 GMT
17.7°
-165.9°
130 mph 951 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 10
21:00 GMT
18.0°
-167.2°
140 mph 947 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 11
03:00 GMT
18.3°
-168.3°
130 mph 950 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 11
06:00 GMT
18.5°
-168.9°
130 mph 950 mb
Hurricane
4
Aug 11
09:00 GMT
18.7°
-169.2°
120 mph 957 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 11
12:00 GMT
19.0°
-169.7°
120 mph 957 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 11
15:00 GMT
19.3°
-170.1°
120 mph 957 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 11
18:00 GMT
19.7°
-170.4°
120 mph 957 mb
Hurricane
3
Aug 11
21:00 GMT
20.1°
-170.9°
110 mph 960 mb
Hurricane
2
Aug 12
00:00 GMT
20.7°
-171.2°
110 mph 960 mb
Hurricane
2
Aug 12
03:00 GMT
21.2°
-171.8°
110 mph 960 mb
Hurricane
2
Aug 12
06:00 GMT
21.6°
-172.3°
110 mph 960 mb
Hurricane
2
Aug 12
09:00 GMT
22.1°
-172.9°
90 mph 976 mb
Hurricane
1
Aug 12
12:00 GMT
22.3°
-173.5°
85 mph 981 mb
Hurricane
1
Aug 12
15:00 GMT
22.8°
-174.2°
85 mph 984 mb
Hurricane
1
Aug 12
18:00 GMT
23.1°
-174.9°
85 mph 984 mb
Hurricane
1
Aug 12
21:00 GMT
23.7°
-175.7°
75 mph 988 mb
Hurricane
1
Aug 13
00:00 GMT
24.2°
-176.3°
75 mph 988 mb
Hurricane
1
Aug 13
03:00 GMT
24.6°
-177.0°
70 mph 988 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Aug 13
06:00 GMT
24.7°
-177.9°
70 mph 988 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Aug 13
09:00 GMT
24.9°
-178.8°
65 mph 995 mb
Tropical Storm
-
Aug 13
15:00 GMT
25.3°
179.8°
50 mph 1001 mb
Tropical Storm
-
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