Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 242205

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC sun Mar 24 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...Special features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: a strong north-south pressure
gradient is expected to develop across southern Mexico Mon into 
Mon night as high pressure builds across the western Gulf of
Mexico. This will support strengthening northerly flow funneling
through the chivela pass with winds likely reaching gale force 
by late Mon night. Northerly winds are expected to continue 
pulsing to gale force Tue through Thu with the strongest winds 
occurring during the late night and early morning hours. Seas
will build to 12 ft or greater with each gale event as northeast
swell propagates well downstream beyond 100w.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers fzpn03 knhc/hsfep2 or 
at website https://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/text/miahsfep2.Shtml for 
further details. 

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...   

A trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06n77w to 
05n86w, where scatterometer data from this afternoon indicates 
that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04n100w to
02n114w to 01n127w to 05n135w and to beyond 06n140w. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted within 60 nm north of the ITCZ
between 97w and 100w, and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 93w
and 95w.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...  

Gulf of tehuantepec: please read the special features section
above for more information on the Gale Warning in effect
beginning Mon night. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec during the late night and early morning 
hours through Mon.

Gulf of california: relatively tranquil conditions will prevail 
through midweek with winds generally less than 15 kt and seas in
the 1-3 ft range. 

Elsewhere, overnight scatterometer data depicted moderate to
fresh northerly winds across the offshore waters off the Baja
Peninsula north of 26n. The pressure gradient between high 
pressure of 1025 mb centered to the west of Baja California 
norte at 31n123w and lower pressure over interior Mexico will 
continue to generate moderate to fresh winds across the offshore 
waters off the Baja Peninsula through Thu. Wave heights peak to 
around 11 over the northern offshore waters will only subside 
slightly through early Mon as the swell continues to propagate 
southeastward through these waters. This swell will reach as far 
south as the revillagigedo islands by early Mon. The swell will 
gradually decay through midweek which will allow seas to subside 
below 8 ft across most of the area by Wed. Looking ahead, another
high pressure system building eastward towards the region on Thu
may support fresh to strong northerly winds off Baja California 
norte Thu and Thu night.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Gulf of papagayo: strong to near gale force northeast to east 
 winds will continue pulsing over the Gulf of papagayo through 
Thu night. The strongest winds will occur during the late night 
and early morning hours with the added impact of drainage flow. 
Seas will build to 10 ft by Wed morning with northeast swell 
propagating well downstream of the Gulf through Thu night.

Gulf of panama: the earlier fresh to locally strong north to 
northeast winds over the Gulf of Panama have diminished to 
moderate to fresh speeds this afternoon. These winds are expected
to continue at these speeds through Tue afternoon before
increasing back to fresh to locally strong speeds late Tue night 
through as high pressure builds over the Caribbean. Seas will 
build to 8-9 ft downstream of the Gulf Wed night into Thu with 
mixed SW swell and NE wind waves.

Between Ecuador and the galapagos islands, 5-7 ft seas in mixed 
swell will continue through tonight before gradually subsiding. 
Elsewhere, light to moderate winds with 4-6 ft seas will prevail 
through midweek.

Remainder of the area... 

A weakening frontal extends from near 32n130w to 25n140w. On its
heels, a cold front has barely moved over the far northwest
waters of the area from near 32n133w to west of the area at 
29n140w. The main marine impacts from this new cold front will
be that it will introduce another set of long-period northwest
swell through waters of the NW portion of the discussion area 
through Mon. This cold front will reach a position from near 
32n128w to 26n133w, and weakening to 22n140w by early Mon
afternoon, and is forecast to weaken from near 32n127w to
27n131w and weakening stationary from there to 22n140w by  
early Tue afternoon while yet another cold front moves to 
along a position from near 32n137w to 28n140w. This cold 
front will be followed by a set of long-period swell, but
the highest of its associated wave heights, forecast to peak
to around 13 ft, are expected to skirt the far northern boundary
of the discussion area through Wed as the front begins to weaken
while it moves across the north-central and northeast waters of 
the area.

An enhanced pressure gradient between high pressure north of the
region and the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong
northeast to east trade winds from roughly 07n to 13n west of 
120w. These winds are expected to diminish to fresh speeds by Mon
as the high pressure centered near 31n123w shifts east-southeast
and weakens.

Elsewhere, northwest swell propagating across the high seas 
domain is maintaining seas of 8 ft or greater over the waters 
generally to the north of 02n and west of about 112w. An area of
mixed swell with seas to 8 ft well downstream of the Gulf of 
papagayo will decay through late tonight. Northeast swell 
generated by gap winds over the gulfs of papagayo and Tehuantepec
will merge with northwest swell and long period cross-equatorial
south to southwest swell Tue through Thu. This will result in a 
large swath of 8-9 ft seas that will cover the area from the 
Equator to 15n and extend westward from near 90w to beyond 140w.



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