Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 251623

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat may 25 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...Special features...

...Gulf of California Gale Warning...

A cold front sweeping through Southern California this morning 
will approach Baja California norte today, helping to strengthen 
SW gap winds across the northern Gulf of California. Strong 
winds will prevail tonight through Sun night north of 29.5n, 
with a brief period of gale force winds expected late tonight 
into Sun morning. Winds will shift to NW to N behind the front 
early Mon before the front weakens. Wind speeds will then 
diminish over the Gulf through mid week.

...Heavy rainfall potential over Central America...

A large low level cyclonic circulation that is typical for this 
time of the year, called a Central American gyre, prevails 
across Central America and the adjacent Caribbean and tropical 
Pacific waters between about 81w and 100w. This feature is 
expected to persist for several days and will continue bringing 
abundant moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central 
America during the next few days. Life-threatening flash 
flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous 
terrain. Please refer to your local meteorological service for 
more details. 

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...

The monsoon trough extends from 09n73w to low pressure near 
11.5n88w 1007 mb to 13.5n93w to 07.5n123w. The ITCZ continues 
from 07.5n123w to 07.5n127w to beyond 07n140w. Numerous moderate 
and scattered strong convection is noted from 01.5n to 08n E of 
82w and from 08n to 15n between 86w and 98w. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 06n to 10n between 100w 
and 115w. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
within 120 nm N of the ITCZ W of 132w.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico... 

Please see special features section above for more on the
upcoming gale event over the northern Gulf of California. 

Overnight ascat data suggested that gentle NW winds prevailed 
across the open waters N of 20n, while gentle to moderate NW to 
W winds prevailed from las Tres Marias to near Puerto Angel. 
Seas off the Baja California peninsula remain in the 6-8 ft 
range in NW swell, and 5-7 ft in mixed swell over the remainder 
of the open waters off the coast of Mexico. Light to moderate 
variable winds, and seas of 2 ft or less, prevail across the 
Gulf of California. High pressure well NW of the region will 
build modestly se into the region over the next few days and act 
to strengthen the pressure gradient across the area waters. This 
will increase winds into the moderate to fresh range through 
early Mon, with diurnal heating on Mon and Tue yielding areas of 
strong afternoon through early evening winds along the prominent 
points and CAPES of the Baja Peninsula. NW swell moving through 
the regional waters today will diminish tonight through sun and 
allow for seas to subside by 1-2 ft during that time. 

Gulf of tehuantepec: fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late tonight into early 
sun. Seas will build to 8-9 ft by early Sun morning before
subsiding below 8 ft by sun evening.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Please see the special features section for more information 
about the Central American gyre, which will continue to bring 
heavy rain to parts of Central America and the adjacent offshore 

Light to gentle SW to W winds prevail S of the monsoon trough, 
with seas in the 4-7 ft range. Light to moderate winds of 
varying direction, and seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail N of the 
monsoon trough. Low pres embedded within the broad gyre will 
meander offshore the coast of Nicaragua the next couple of days. 
The monsoon trough will lift northward through the early part of 
the week, with southerly monsoon flow will strengthening and 
shifting northward with the trough. Seas will build to 8-12 ft 
by mid week in this enhanced monsoon flow. 

Remainder of the area... 

Overnight altimeter data indicated seas of generally 7-8 ft 
covering most of the forecast waters N of 20n in a broad mix of 
swell. High pressure well NW of the area extends a ridge se to 
near 14n108w. The associated pressure gradient S of the ridge is 
yielding fresh NE winds across much of the area N of the ITCZ 
and W of 120w. The ridge will build modestly se into the region 
over the weekend with the main repercussion being to veer winds 
more E to NE with little change in strength. 

SW swell producing seas near 8 ft covers the forecast waters S 
of 13n between 94w and 115w, and will dominate seas there 
through sun, before new SW swell enters the southern waters, and 
propagate northward through mid week. This will result in a 
large area of seas 8 ft or greater south of 11n between 90w and 
125w by Tue.



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