Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 201541

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1541 UTC Wed Jun 20 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 

...Tropical waves...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed N of 05n along 94w.
Scattered moderate convection is within an area bounded by 13n93w
to 06n93w to 04n95w to 05n98w to 11n100w to 15n94w to 13n93w. 
Westward progress of this wave will slow over the next day or 
so. This wave will be one to watch with interest for potential 
tropical development this weekend into early next week.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10n86w to 14n106w to 
08n123w. The ITCZ axis extends from 08n123w to 10n134w to 
08n140w. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
within an area bounded by 06n77w to 03n78w to 02n80w to 04n83w 
to 10n85w to 08n80w to 06n77w, and also within an area bounded by
13n112w to 06n113w to 04n117w to 05n121w to 11n123w to 12n120w 
to 13n112w.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

In the Gulf of California, gentle southerly winds and seas of 2
ft or less prevail. Winds will increase to moderate Friday, then
moderate to fresh in the southern Gulf and fresh to strong N of
29n by Saturday morning as the pressure gradient gradually
tightens. Seas will build to 4 to 7 ft as the winds increase. 
The wind will then gradually diminish back to light by Monday
with seas subsiding back to 2 ft or less as well.

Moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula will 
prevail through late Thursday. Moderate seas offshore of the 
Baja Peninsula will subside slightly by Thursday. A new pulse of 
northerly swell will propagate into the waters off Baja 
California norte by the end of the week, building seas to near 8 
ft Saturday. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over 
the open waters the next several days. Cross equatorial southerly
swell will propagate into the waters off southern Mexico by the 
end of the week, which will build seas to near 7 ft by Saturday. 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador... 

The monsoon trough will prevail near 10n through Thursday before
slowly lifting northward. Light to gentle winds will prevail N 
of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
prevailing S of the monsoon trough. A pulse of long period SW 
swell will reach the waters W of Ecuador by Thursday, with 
combined seas building to 7 to 9 ft late Friday, except in the 
Lee of the galapagos islands. The swell will continue to spread 
across the southern forecast waters, with seas building to 5 to 8
ft S of 08n early Saturday. Seas will start to subside on 

Remainder of the area...

High pressure of 1023 mb centered near 32n133w extends a ridge 
se to near the revillagigedo islands. Light to gentle 
anticyclonic wind flow prevails over the waters north of 20n, 
while gentle to moderate trades prevail S of 20n and west of 
120w, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Seas N of 20n will 
subside slightly to 4 to 6 ft by this evening. A fresh pulse of 
northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Thursday,
with seas building to 6 to 8 ft north of 25n between 120w and 
130w Friday. Southerly swell will cross the Equator on by
Thursday morning, building seas to 6 to 9 ft south of 10n and 
west of 90w late Friday. Seas associated to this swell will start
to subside Sunday into early next week. 



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