Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
axnt20 knhc 171158
twdat 

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 am EST Fri Jan 17 2020

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1140 UTC.

...Special features...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

NE to E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 13 feet 
to 17 feet, are being experienced, off the coast of Colombia, 
from 11n to 12n between 74w and 77w. Expect that gale-force NE 
to E winds, and sea heights ranging from 14 feet to 20 feet, in 
more or less the same areas, will be continuing until at least 
Saturday night. Please read the latest high seas forecast: 
miahsfat2/fznt02 knhc, the latest offshore forecast: 
miaoffnt3/fznt23 knhc, or go to the website 
https://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/text/miahsfat2.Shtml, from the NWS 
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

The 12-hour forecast, starting at 17/0600 UTC, consists of a 
cold front that will be extending from 31n60w to 26n72w to 
26n81w. Expect that gale-force NE to E winds, and sea heights 
ranging from 15 feet to 20 feet, will be covering the areas that 
are from 30n to 31n between 54w and 62w. Please read the latest 
high seas forecast: miahsfat2/fznt02 knhc, the latest offshore 
forecast: miaoffnt3/fznt23 knhc, or go to the website 
https://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/text/miahsfat2.Shtml, from the NWS 
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the prime Meridian along 03n.
The monsoon trough continues from 03n at the prime Meridian, to 
03n19w. The ITCZ continues from 03n19w, to 01n32w, and to 01n41w.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally 
strong from 07n southward between 10n and 60w.

Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front cuts across Florida, along 29n, from the Atlantic 
Ocean. The front continues into the north central Gulf of 
Mexico, reaching the Upper Texas Gulf Coast. Upper level 
anticyclonic wind flow is moving on top of the cold front, 
across the entire Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: rainshowers are 
possible within 150 nm of the U.S.A. Gulf Coast, from Texas to 
Florida. 

A surface ridge extends from Andros Island in the Bahamas, 
through The Straits of Florida, into the west central Gulf of 
Mexico, to the coast of Mexico along 24n.

The current cold front will be moving S and SW, into the N and 
NE Gulf of Mexico through tonight. High pressure building in 
behind this front will support strong E winds and building seas 
in the eastern basin, from this afternoon through late Saturday.
A second cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday 
evening. The second cold front then will extend from northern 
Florida to north of Veracruz Mexico by Sunday evening. This 
front will move se of the Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening. This 
front also will bring strong winds to most of the area, with 
near gale-force winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico from Sunday 
through early Tuesday morning.

Caribbean Sea...

An upper level NW-to-se oriented trough extends from The Isthmus 
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to N Nicaragua. 
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 15n to 19n between 83w 
and 90w, in the Gulf of Honduras, and inland in parts of 
Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the southernmost part 
of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor 
imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: rainshowers 
are possible, in broken to overcast low level clouds, in the 
trade wind flow, in many sections of the Caribbean Sea.  

24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the 
period that ended at 16/0000 UTC, according to The Pan American 
temperature and precipitation tables, miatptpan/sxca01 knhc, 
are: 0.15 in Curacao, and a trace in Guadeloupe. 

High pressure to the north of the Caribbean Sea will support 
gale-force wind speeds off the coast of Colombia through at 
least Sunday morning. More gale-force wind is likely on Sunday 
night. Strong to near gale-force wind speeds are to be expected 
in the NW Caribbean Sea, in the wake of a cold front into 
Saturday. Similar conditions can be expected in the NE Caribbean 
Sea as the front passes, from Saturday evening through Sunday 
night. The wind speeds will be near gale-force in the Windward 
Passage. The wind speeds and the sea heights should diminish in 
most areas for the start of next week. It is possible that 
another cold front may bring strong NW winds to the far NW 
Caribbean Sea on Monday night and Tuesday. 

Atlantic Ocean...

A cold front is just to the east of Bermuda, continuing to 
30n70w, to the Florida East Coast along 29n. Precipitation: 
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 30n to 32n between 
57w and 62w. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated 
moderate are to the northwest of the line from 30n60w 25n70w 
25n80w. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for 
the period that ended at 17/0000 UTC, according to The Pan 
American temperature and precipitation tables, miatptpan/sxca01 
knhc, are: 0.50 in Bermuda. 

The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show
a trough that extends from 32n42w to 26n44w to 17n49w.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 30n northward between 
35w and 45w.  

A surface ridge passes from the waters that are between the 
Canary Islands and the Madeira archipelago, to 25n29w, to a 1023 
mb high pressure center that is near 26n44w. The ridge continues 
from 26n44w, to 24n69w, across Andros Island in the Bahamas, 
beyond The Straits of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.

The current cold front will move southward. The front will 
stretch through the central Bahamas, and into the Florida 
Straits by this evening. By saturday: this front will stall 
across the Antilles. Behind the front, strong winds and large 
seas can be expected through Saturday night. Another front will 
move off the se U.S. Coast on Sunday night. The front will bring 
fresh, possibly strong, N winds to northern waters through mid-
week. 

$$
Mt


		
		

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