Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Weather Discussion
000abio10 pgtw 051800 msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi// subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian /Ocean/051800z-061800zmar2016// ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/051721zmar2016// ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert.// Rmks/ 1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa): a. Tropical cyclone summary: none. B. Tropical disturbance summary: none. 2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa): a. Tropical cyclone summary: none. B. Tropical disturbance summary: (1) the area of convection previously located near 15.0s 95.2e, is now located near 15.5s 92.9e, approximately 350 nm southwest of Cocos Island. Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts deepening convection offset just east of a well defined low level circulation center (LLCC). A 051325z ssmis 91 ghz image shows an elongated LLCC with associated convection sheared to the east. A 051512z ascat pass further illustrates the defined LLCC with 30 knot winds along the southern periphery. The system is located in a marginally-favovable environment with 15 to 20 knot westerly vertical wind shear being partially offset by a decent poleward outflow channel. In addition, sea surface temperatures are near 29 celsius. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high. See ref a (wtxs21 pgtw 051730) for further details. (2) no other suspect areas.//
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