Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 051800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/051721zmar2016//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert.//
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection previously located near 15.0s
95.2e, is now located near 15.5s 92.9e, approximately 350 nm
southwest of Cocos Island. Animated infrared satellite imagery
depicts deepening convection offset just east of a well defined low
level circulation center (LLCC). A 051325z ssmis 91 ghz image shows
an elongated LLCC with associated convection sheared to the east. A
051512z ascat pass further illustrates the defined LLCC with 30 knot
winds along the southern periphery. The system is located in a
marginally-favovable environment with 15 to 20 knot westerly
vertical wind shear being partially offset by a decent poleward
outflow channel. In addition, sea surface temperatures are near 29
celsius. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 mb.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high. See ref a (wtxs21 pgtw
051730) for further details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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