Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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000 
WTPZ42 KNHC 212033
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Vance Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
300 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026
 
Satellite imagery shows that the system continues to produce deep
convection in improved banding features, as depicted in recent
microwave images. An earlier scatterometer pass shortly after the
previous advisory showed that the low-level center was slightly
farther south and had a peak wind of 27 kt. The latest satellite
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS and TAFB are 32-35 kt, and using
these estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt for this
advisory, making the system Tropical Storm Vance.
 
The initial motion is estimated at 265/6 kt. A generally slow 
forward motion is expected with a turn toward the northwest and then 
north-northwest as the cyclone is steered along the southern and 
western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. There 
continues to be some disagreement in the short term over when the 
turn toward the northwest will occur The GFS and hurricane regional 
models continue to show a southwest motion, while the HCCA and GDMI 
show the system slowing and turning sooner. The latest NHC track 
forecast is closest to the HCCA and GDMI, the best-performing models 
this season, and was shifted slightly to the right compared to the 
previous one.
 
Vance is within a conducive environment for steady to rapid 
intensification (RI), with warm sea surface temperatures near 
29-30C, low wind shear, and favorable upper-level divergence. RI 
SHIPS and DTOPS guidance remains very bullish, showing RI over the 
next 12-60 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and the 
peak intensity was increased slightly from the previous one, 
although it remains slightly below the GDMI and HCCA aids. In 72 
hours, wind shear is forecast to increase and the system will move 
into a slightly drier mid-level air mass. Thus, a weakening trend is 
shown at that time.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z  9.4N  99.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z  9.5N 100.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z  9.8N 101.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 10.4N 102.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 11.2N 102.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  24/0600Z 11.9N 103.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 12.8N 103.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 14.5N 104.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

000 
WTPZ22 KNHC 212032
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N  99.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE   0SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N  99.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.4N  99.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z  9.5N 100.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z  9.8N 101.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.4N 102.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 11.2N 102.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.9N 103.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 12.8N 103.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE  80SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 14.5N 104.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE  80SW 130NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  80SW 130NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.4N  99.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

000 
WTPZ32 KNHC 212032
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
300 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM VANCE...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 99.8W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was 
located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 99.8 West. Vance is 
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion 
with a turn toward the northwest then north-northwest is expected 
over the next few days, with a slight decrease in forward speed.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected, and the 
system is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting 
portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this 
weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to 
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly