Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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000 
WTPZ42 KNHC 282033
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Depression Vance Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
200 PM MST Wed Oct 28 2026

Vance's convection continues to be displaced northeast of the 
center, with visible satellite imagery still showing an exposed 
low-level circulation. An ASCAT pass over Vance from around 1640 UTC 
showed the highest winds displaced well away from the center as 
well, with a peak value of 29 kt, although this pass missed the 
deepest convection to the northeast. The latest subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimate from TAFB gave Vance a final T-number of 2.0, 
while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 27 to 34 kt. 
Based on primarily scatterometry data and satellite imagery, the 
initial intensity is set at 30 kt, and Vance is downgraded to a 
tropical depression. 

The initial motion was estimated to be 010/8 kt. Vance is being 
steered by a longwave trough centered over the east-central 
Pacific. Track guidance generally agrees on keeping the storm 
motion fixed at north-northeast over the next 48 hours, as the 
trough will be slow to shift eastward. The latest NHC track 
forecast has changed little from the previous advisory, and 
generally follows a blend of the last forecast and the latest HCCA 
guidance. 

Vance remains in a hostile environment characterized by strong 
vertical wind shear, and global models generally depict the system 
becoming post-tropical within the next 24 hours. The system may 
dissipate shortly thereafter, perhaps before even reaching the coast 
of Sinaloa. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF 
suggest that Vance may undergo one more round of diurnal convection 
overnight tonight. However, the latest NHC intensity forecast 
generally holds the system's intensity steady, given how hostile the 
environment is despite the potential convective re-development. 
Regardless of Vance's dissipation time, heavy rain can still be 
expected along and ahead of the system's north-northeastward track.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact
portions of western Mexico during much of this week. This rainfall
may produce flooding and mudslides across central and southern
Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit,
especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
2. Interests along the west-central and northwestern coasts of
Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the
progress of Vance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 20.1N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 21.2N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 22.6N 108.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  30/0600Z 24.1N 108.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Papin

000 
WTPZ22 KNHC 282032
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
2100 UTC WED OCT 28 2026
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 109.1W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE  45SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 109.1W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 109.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.2N 108.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.6N 108.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.1N 108.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 109.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PAPIN

000 
WTPZ32 KNHC 282032
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Vance Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
200 PM MST Wed Oct 28 2026
 
...VANCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 109.1W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the west-central and northwestern coasts of Mexico
and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the
progress of Vance.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Vance
was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 109.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 
day or so, and Vance is expected to become post-tropical within the 
next 24 hours, dissipating shortly thereafter. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4
inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern
Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit, with isolated higher totals
of 7 inches possible over central and southern Sinaloa. This
rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
along steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of
southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern
portion of the Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Papin