Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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000 
WTPZ42 KNHC 211437
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
900 AM CST Wed Oct 21 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance located south of 
southern Mexico (EP94) has continued to become better organized this 
morning. Deep convection has increased, and showers and 
thunderstorms have become more concentrated within curved banding 
features. A subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB 
was T2.0/ 30 kt. Visible satellite shows that the low-level 
circulation center is now well-defined, and advisories are therefore 
being initiated on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E. The initial 
intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory.
 
The initial motion is estimated at 265/6 kt. A generally slow 
forward motion is expected with a turn towards the northwest and 
then north-northwest as the cyclone is steered along the southern 
and western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. The 
NHC track forecast leans towards the GDMI and HCCA solutions and is 
on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The GFS and some of 
the hurricane regional models continue to move the system more 
southwestward over the next 12 hours or so and are on the western 
portion of the track suite. 

Environmental conditions are highly conducive for rapid 
intensification. The cyclone is located over very warm waters in the 
eastern Pacific within an environment of low vertical wind shear, 
abundant mid-level moisture, and divergence aloft. Rapid 
intensification guidance is also well above climatological mean, 
particularly in the 12-60 h period. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS 
RI probabilities for a 55-kt increase in 48 hours are 73 and 83 
percent, respectively. Thus, rapid intensification is explicitly 
forecast during that time. By 72 hours, vertical wind shear is 
forecast to increase, and mid-level dry air could begin to entrain 
into the circulation. As a result, a weakening trend is shown later 
in the forecast period. The official NHC intensity forecast is near 
the upper end of the guidance, although the Google DeepMind does 
show a higher peak intensity.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z  9.5N  99.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z  9.4N 100.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z  9.7N 101.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 10.2N 102.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 10.7N 102.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  24/0000Z 11.5N 103.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 12.5N 103.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 14.2N 104.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 15.4N 105.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

000 
WTPZ22 KNHC 211436
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2026
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N  99.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.5N  99.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.5N  99.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z  9.4N 100.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z  9.7N 101.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 10.2N 102.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.7N 102.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.5N 103.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 12.5N 103.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  80SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 14.2N 104.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE  90SW 130NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 15.4N 105.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 130NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.5N  99.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

000 
WTPZ32 KNHC 211436
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
900 AM CST Wed Oct 21 2026
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 99.3W
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Two-E was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 99.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this general slow forward motion with a turn towards the 
northwest then north-northwest is expected the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid intensification is expected, and the system is 
forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E are 
expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and 
southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week.  These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly