Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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000 
WTPZ42 KNHC 300232
TCDEP2
 
Remnants Of Vance Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
800 PM MST Thu Oct 29 2026

Highly sheared convection associated with Vance has stretched its 
low-level circulation to the point where it no longer has a 
well-defined center. Thus, Vance no longer meets the criteria of a 
tropical cyclone and this will be the final NHC advisory the system. 
Satellite imagery continues to show some puffs of deep convection 
just east of the remnants of Vance, and this activity may persist 
until the circulation fully dissipates.
 
Vance's remnants are estimated to be moving north-northeastward 
towards the mainland Mexican coast. Lingering showers and 
thunderstorms from its remnant moisture are expected to continue 
impacting west-central Mexico and move into the U.S. Southern Plains 
and New Mexico through the next day or so.

For additional information on the remnants, please see High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS 
header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

Key Messages:
 
1. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance's remnants will 
impact portions of western Mexico during the next day or two. This 
rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across central and 
southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern 
Nayarit, especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
2. Moisture carried northeastward from Vance's remnants will 
produce heavy rain across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains and 
New Mexico today into Friday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 20.7N 107.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Pierce/Papin

000 
WTPZ22 KNHC 300231
TCMEP2
 
REMNANTS OF VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
0300 UTC FRI OCT 30 2026
 
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 107.7W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 107.7W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 107.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 107.7W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF 
THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 
KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PIERCE/PAPIN

000 
WTPZ32 KNHC 300231
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Remnants Of Vance Advisory Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
800 PM MST Thu Oct 29 2026
 
...VANCE NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND THIS IS THE FINAL
NHC ADVISORY...
...REMNANT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 107.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Vance were located near
latitude 20.7 North, longitude 107.7 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h).
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with 
higher gusts.

 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnants of Vance are expected to produce 1 to 2
inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, far
southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit into early Friday
morning, with isolated higher totals over 4 inches possible across
portions of coastal Sinaloa. This rainfall may produce flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
Moisture from the remnants of Vance will enhance rainfall over the
Southwestern United States and Southern Plains leading to a threat
of flash flooding over the next few days.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with the 
remnants of Vance, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Total Rainfall Graphic available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Vance's remnants will affect coastal
portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the
southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula, during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants 
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and 
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Pierce/Papin