Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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000 
WTPZ42 KNHC 230900
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Vance Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
300 AM CST Fri Oct 23 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Vance has become increasingly well 
organized during the past several hours, with deep convection 
wrapping tightly around the inner-core region. Recent microwave 
imagery confirms this improvement in the inner-core, showing a 
complete convective ring surrounding the center. The subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was T4.5/77 kt, with objective 
aids recently exceeding 70 kt. Given these estimates and the 
improved satellite presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 
75 kt, making Vance a Category 1 hurricane.
 
Vance has turned north-northwestward (330/5 kt) and should maintain 
this general heading as the ridge to the north weakens in response 
to an upper-level trough over the southwestern United States. The 
track guidance remains in relatively good agreement through about 60 
h. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to shift eastward, leaving 
Vance in a region of weak steering currents and resulting in 
increasing cross-track spread among the model solutions. 
Consequently, forecast confidence during this period remains lower 
than normal. The NHC track forecast remains largely unchanged from 
the previous advisory and lies close to the GDMI and HCCA aids.
 
Rapid intensification appears to be underway, and environmental 
conditions are expected to remain favorable for additional 
strengthening, characterized by warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, 
and plenty of mid-level moisture. RI is expected to continue during 
the next 24 h, bringing Vance to major hurricane status by tonight. 
Thereafter, Vance is forecast to encounter cooler sea surface 
temperatures, likely due to upwelling caused by recent tropical 
cyclones, along with increasing vertical wind shear. These factors 
should limit further strengthening and support gradual weakening by 
the end of the forecast. The NHC intensity forecast remains similar 
to the previous advisory and lies near the upper end of the model 
guidance through much of the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 10.9N 102.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 11.5N 102.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 12.4N 103.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 13.4N 103.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 14.5N 103.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 15.6N 104.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 16.4N 104.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 17.0N 104.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 17.8N 104.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs

000 
WTPZ22 KNHC 230859
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
0900 UTC FRI OCT 23 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 102.1W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 180SE  50SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 135SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 102.1W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 102.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 11.5N 102.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE  50SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 12.4N 103.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  15SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 190SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 13.4N 103.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  15SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.5N 103.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.6N 104.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.4N 104.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  80SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 17.0N 104.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N 104.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 102.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS

000 
WTPZ32 KNHC 230859
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Vance Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
300 AM CST Fri Oct 23 2026
 
...VANCE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...RAPID INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 102.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Vance was located
near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 102.1 West. Vance is moving
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Rapid intensification will continue during the next 24 h, and 
Vance is forecast to become a major hurricane by tonight.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this
weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs