Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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000 
WTPA44 PHFO 062055
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number   1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Nov 06 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure (Invest 
CP95) that we have been monitoring for several days has developed a 
well-defined circulation, showing banded convection around its 
center. While the most recent constrained subject Dvorak analysis 
from HFO was CI number was 2.0/30 kt, the Data T was 3.0/45 kt, 
which probably better reflects the system's organization. A 1546 UTC 
SMOS microwave pass supports that assessment, showing winds above 
tropical-storm-force east of the center. Based on this, advisories 
have been initiated on Tropical Storm Pena, with an intensity of 40 
kt.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/10 kt, and 
the storm is expected to continue this motion for the next several 
days due to a high pressure ridge centered over the Central Pacific. 
Model guidance remains in good agreement through 72 h on Pena's 
track, then cross-track spread increases among the model solutions, 
resulting in lower-than-normal confidence. Additionally, the storm's 
initial representation in much of the guidance is too weak, which 
adds another layer of uncertainty. The NHC track forecast has been 
set to follow the GDMI and HCCA aids.

The intensity forecast is tricky because the overall environment 
generally seems conducive to strengthening for at least the next day 
or so. While there is an increase in shear in much of the models 
this weekend, this shear could abate early next week, with no 
obvious dry air or instability issues seen in the large-scale 
guidance. It is a little puzzling why many of the models show little 
change or even a weakening so quickly in seemingly conducive 
conditions, though perhaps it is linked to the unrealistically weak 
initial vortex representation of Pena.  The first forecast is on the 
higher side of the guidance and reflects a blend of some aids that 
get close to hurricane-strength, while others weaken to a 
depression. It probably goes without saying that this too is an 
uncertain prediction, similar to the track forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 11.3N 150.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 11.5N 151.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 11.4N 153.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 11.3N 155.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 11.3N 157.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 11.2N 159.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 11.0N 161.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 11.3N 165.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 11.9N 171.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Blake

942
WTPA24 PHFO 062055
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM PENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC FRI NOV 06 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 150.1W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE   0SE   0SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 150.1W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 149.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 11.5N 151.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 11.4N 153.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 11.3N 155.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 11.3N 157.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 11.2N 159.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 11.0N 161.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 11.3N 165.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 11.9N 171.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 150.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/BLAKE=

000 
WTPA34 PHFO 062055
TCPCP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pena Advisory Number   1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Nov 06 2026
 
...TROPICAL STORM PENA FORMS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUT IS NO THREAT TO LAND...

 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 150.1W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pena was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 150.1 West. Pena is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to prevail through the next several days.
 
Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 
45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.  Gradual strengthening is 
expected over the next day or so, followed by no significant change 
through early next week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Blake