Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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741
WTPA43 PHFO 252035
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Olana Discussion Number   2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP032026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Oct 25 2026

Since the prior advisory, convective activity has continued to
expand near and to the northeast of the estimated center of the
tropical cyclone, with first light visible imagery indicating that
the center is likely embedded in this mass of deep convection. A
helpful WSF-M pass at 18 UTC also showed further organization, with
a curved band on its northwest flank, though some northeast tilt
with height is also noted between the 37 GHz and 89 GHz channels.
The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T1.5/25 kt
from JTWC and T2.0/30 kt from HFO. However, the objective intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 30-36 kt, and given the
improvement seen on satellite and microwave imagery since the prior
advisory, the initial intensity is set on the higher side of the
intensity estimates at 35 kt, making the depression Tropical Storm
Olana.

Olana is estimated to be moving a bit faster to the east-northeast
this morning, or 075/7 kt. The track reasoning is the same as this
morning, with the combination of a low-level westerly wind burst to
the south and a mid-latitude trough to the northwest expected to
maintain the tropical storm on a general eastward track. The track
guidance this cycle has shifted slower compared to the previous
advisory, as the circulation becomes more vertically shallow, and
the NHC track was also made slower than the previous forecast. The
latest track forecast is on the northern side of the guidance
envelope, favoring a blend of the faster HFIP Corrected Consensus
Approach (HCCA) and slower ECMWF (EMXI) track guidance. Based on the
latest track forecast, no watches are required for Johnston Atoll at
this time, though interests there should continue to monitor the
latest forecast updates related to this system.

There remains a small window for Olana to intensify a bit more in
the short-term given its current structure, though the noted tilt
with height seen on the WSF-M microwave pass is likely a harbinger
of stronger vertical wind shear that the tropical cyclone will soon
begin to experience. While both the GFS and EC-based SHIPS guidance
are only forecasting 10-15 kt of deep-layer (200-850 mb) westerly
shear over the next 12-36 h, the adjusted shear is much higher,
suggesting higher shear undercutting the outflow layer. Weakening is
expected to begin in 12-24 h, and this will likely be hastened when
the deep-layer shear increases above 30 kt in 48-60 h. Both the GFS
and ECMWF simulated IR show the remaining convection being fully
stripped away from Olana's circulation during this period. Thus, the
NHC intensity forecast shows Olana becoming a remnant low by 60 h,
with the low opening up into a trough after 72 h, though the global
models suggest the circulation could become too elongated to be
considered well-defined earlier than shown here.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 14.8N 178.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 14.9N 177.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 14.4N 176.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 14.1N 175.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 14.3N 173.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 15.0N 172.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1800Z 15.6N 172.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

709
WTPA23 PHFO 252034
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM OLANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SUN OCT 25 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 178.0W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 178.0W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 178.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.9N 177.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.4N 176.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.1N 175.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.3N 173.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.0N 172.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.6N 172.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 178.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

000 
WTPA33 PHFO 252034
TCPCP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Olana Advisory Number   2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP032026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Oct 25 2026
 
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OLANA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 178.0W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in Johnston Atoll should monitor the progress of this
system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olana was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 178.0 West. Olana is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a general
eastward motion is expected for the next several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some slight intensification is possible later today,
but weakening is forecast to begin on Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin