Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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822
WTPA43 PHFO 251453
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Three-C Discussion Number   1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP032026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Oct 25 2026

The system we have been monitoring near the International Date Line
that was recently designated CP94 has become better organized early
this morning. Showers and thunderstorm activity began to show signs
of organization late yesterday, and an overnight scatterometer pass
indicated that a small but well-defined circulation had formed. In
addition, there was a WSF-M microwave pass at 0532 UTC, which
showed curved bands were present on the 37-GHz channel, especially
on the northern semi-circle of the system. Since that time,
Himawari-9 and GOES-18 satellite imagery shows the system exhibiting
a bursting convective pattern close to or just to the north of the
estimated center. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both JTWC and
Honolulu were T1.5/25 kt. However, the earlier scatterometer pass
also showed a peak wind retrieval of 32 kt. Based on the system's
structural improvement on satellite imagery overnight, advisories
are being initiated on Tropical Depression Three-C at this time. The
initial intensity is set at 30 kt, though this could be conservative
given the earlier scatterometer data.

The depression's initial motion is east-northeastward, or 075/6 kt.
The system is currently embedded in deep-layer westerly flow, both
from an equatorward low-level westerly wind burst, and an
upper-level westerly flow from an approaching short-wave trough to
the north of the depression. These combined features should maintain
the system on an eastward track for the next several days. The
initial NHC track forecast blends the latest global model guidance
from the GFS and ECMWF solutions. This track will take the tropical
cyclone as a weakening system near Johnson Atoll in about 60-72 h.
It is worth noting there is a lot of spread in the along-track
direction, likely related to uncertainty in the vertical steering
depth the system will feel over the next few days, so this first
track forecast is a little lower confidence than usual.

The depression could already be close to tropical storm intensity
given the earlier scatterometer data, and environmental conditions
appear mostly favorable for the next 12-24 h with deep-layer shear
in the 5-15 kt range with plenty of warm water and deep-layer
moisture. However, the approaching mid-latitude trough to its north
is expected to soon increase the westerly shear over the system,
likely limiting the intensity of the tropical cyclone. Thus, only
some slight intensification is shown over the next 12-24 h, with the
storm plateauing as a 35 kt tropical storm through the early part of
this week. By mid-week, SHIPS guidance shows this westerly shear
increasing above 40 kt, and most of the guidance responds by showing
the system quickly becoming separated from its deep convection as
the circulation becomes increasingly elongated. The initial NHC
intensity forecast therefore shows the cyclone degenerating into a
remnant low in about 72 h, and dissipating shortly thereafter. This
forecast is in good agreement with the global model guidance.

Based on the initial track and intensity forecast, no watches are
required for Johnston Atoll at this time, though interests there
should continue to monitor the latest forecast updates related to
this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 14.6N 179.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 14.7N 178.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 14.7N 177.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 14.4N 175.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 14.6N 173.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 15.5N 171.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 16.5N 169.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

804
WTPA23 PHFO 251449
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 179.3W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  75 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 179.3W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 179.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.7N 178.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.7N 177.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.4N 175.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.6N 173.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.5N 171.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.5N 169.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 179.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

000 
WTPA33 PHFO 251450
TCPCP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-C Advisory Number   1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP032026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Oct 25 2026
 
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC JUST EAST OF 
THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 179.3W
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM W OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in Johnston Atoll should monitor the progress of this
system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-C 
was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 179.3 West. The 
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) 
and a general eastward motion is expected to continue for the next 
several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some slight intensification is possible later today and the 
depression could become a tropical storm over the next day or so.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin