Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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034 
WTPA44 PHFO 120835
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Depression Pena Discussion Number  23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Nov 11 2026

Deep convection associated with Pena has collapsed over the past few
hours, likely due to an increasingly dry mid-level environment.
Although Pena is forecast to become a remnant low by 24 h, this
transition could occur sooner if deep convection fails to redevelop
over the next several hours. The latest subjective and objective
D-MINT and D-PRINT intensity estimates reflect this downward trend,
with values generally near 30 kt. Given these estimates and the lack
of deep convection, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt. After
transitioning to a remnant low, Pena is expected to open into a
trough and dissipate by Friday evening.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/14 kt. Track
guidance remains tightly clustered over the next couple of days,
showing Pena continuing generally westward south of a strong low- to
mid-level subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track forecast is
virtually unchanged from the previous prediction, while the
intensity forecast has been lowered slightly to reflect the recent
deterioration in Pena's structure.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0900Z  9.8N 172.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z  9.9N 174.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 10.0N 177.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/1800Z 10.2N 180.0E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs
 

073
WTPA24 PHFO 120834
TCMCP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.8N 172.0W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
4 M SEAS....360NE  60SE  60SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.8N 172.0W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.8N 171.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z  9.9N 174.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 10.0N 177.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 10.2N 180.0E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.8N 172.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=

000 
WTPA34 PHFO 120834
TCPCP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Pena Advisory Number  23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Nov 11 2026
 
...PENA FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 172.0W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 1225 MI...1975 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Pena
was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 172.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected for the couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Pena is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by late Thursday 
and dissipate by late Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs