Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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711
WTPA43 PHFO 261436
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Olana Discussion Number   5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP032026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Oct 26 2026

Olana's structure on satellite imagery has rapidly degraded early
this morning. The deep convection that had been near the center
yesterday has separated well off to the northeast, leaving behind a
broad low-level swirl that is south of the previous satellite
estimates. This degradation in structure is likely due to increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear that has led to the circulation
decoupling vertically overnight. Consequently, subjective and
objective intensity estimates are decreasing, and Olana is being
downgraded to a tropical depression in this advisory with maximum
sustained winds of 30 kt.

As noted above, Olana's circulation has been moving south of the
previous forecast track, and the initial motion is slowly off to the
southeast or 140 degrees at 4 kt. Now that the circulation has
become vertically shallow, its motion will mostly be governed by
light and variable low-level steering, due to the competing
influences of a westerly wind burst to Olana's south and a weak
low-level ridge to the cyclone's north. The NHC track forecast has
been adjusted southward, mostly due to the change in the initial
position. This track attempts to blend the faster and eastward HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) with the much slower ECMWF
(EMXI) track aids.

Increasing vertical wind shear from an upper-level trough, coupled
with dry air entrainment should ultimately lead to Olana's demise
over the next couple of days. Given the current degraded structure,
the latest forecast now shows the tropical cyclone degenerating into
a remnant low in 24 hours, and this could occur sooner if convection
does not soon return closer to the circulation center. Thereafter,
the model guidance shows the upper-level trough cutting off and
interacting with Olana's remnants. This could result in some
baroclinic redevelopment in 3-4 days, though the majority of the
guidance shows Olana's circulation becoming too elongated to be
trackable before that time, and dissipation is now shown in 60
hours.

Based on the latest forecast, Olana is expected to dissipate prior
to reaching Johnston Atoll. However, the sheared shower and
thunderstorm activity displaced well northeast of the center could
affect the area over the next couple of days, producing gusty winds
and heavy rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 13.9N 176.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 13.7N 176.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 13.5N 176.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0000Z 13.8N 175.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1200Z 14.3N 174.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

665
WTPA23 PHFO 261434
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC MON OCT 26 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 176.8W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 176.8W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 176.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.7N 176.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.5N 176.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.8N 175.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.3N 174.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 176.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

000 
WTPA33 PHFO 261434
TCPCP3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Olana Advisory Number   5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP032026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Oct 26 2026
 
...OLANA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 176.8W
ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM WSW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in Johnston Atoll should monitor the progress of this
system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Olana 
was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 176.8 West. The 
depression is moving toward the southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A 
general southeastward to eastward motion is expected during the next 
day or two.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Olana is
forecast to become a remnant low in a day or so.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin