Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones

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000 
WTNT45 KNHC 212047
TCDAT5
 
Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102026
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026

The non-tropical area of low pressure (Invest AL93) that we have 
been monitoring this week has acquired enough subtropical 
characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm.  
Scatterometer data showed that fronts near the cyclone had 
dissipated, with a smaller radius-of-maximum wind than yesterday.  
Additionally moderate-to-deep convection has been organizing near 
and west of the warm-core center.  Thus, advisories have been 
initiated on a subtropical storm, and 55 kt is shown as the initial 
intensity based on the scatterometer data.

Josephine has been moving slowly northward today as a shortwave 
ridge passes across the northeastern United States.  The storm 
should accelerate northeastward tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough 
digs into the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States, taking 
the system away from the US.  By Friday, the low should turn 
eastward, to the south of Newfoundland.  Model guidance is in good 
agreement on this path, and the new forecast is close to a blend of 
the global model consensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus aid 
HCCA.

The subtropical storm will likely intensify during the next day or 
so through a favorable trough interaction while it remains near the 
north wall of the Gulf Stream.  Global models are in good agreement 
on a band of hurricane-force winds developing tomorrow on the back 
side of the low as it undergoes extratropical transition.  A slow 
weakening is anticipated by late Friday with the loss of forcing 
from the trough while the system moves over cold water.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the GFS/ECMWF global 
model solutions.  The cyclone should become absorbed in about 4 
days within a much larger low over the North Atlantic.  

Since the coastal wind hazards with this system have been covered 
for the last several days through non-tropical products issued by 
local National Weather Service offices, and the system is forecast 
to move away from the coast, those products will remain in effect 
until the threat diminishes.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 37.4N  69.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
 12H  22/0600Z 38.1N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
 24H  22/1800Z 39.6N  66.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/0600Z 41.4N  61.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/1800Z 43.3N  56.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  24/0600Z 44.1N  53.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/1800Z 44.4N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  25/1800Z 43.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake

000 
WTNT25 KNHC 212045
TCMAT5
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102026
2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N  69.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
34 KT.......360NE 100SE 130SW 260NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 150SE 390SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N  69.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N  69.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.1N  69.0W...SUBTROPICAL
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  70SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 120SE 140SW 220NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.6N  66.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE   0SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT...  0NE  70SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 150SE 160SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 41.4N  61.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  0NE   0SE  50SW  60NW.
50 KT...  0NE  70SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...350NE 210SE 190SW 220NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 43.3N  56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE   0SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT...410NE 240SE 210SW 270NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 44.1N  53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE   0SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...340NE 210SE 180SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 44.4N  50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 43.5N  37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N  69.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000 
WTNT35 KNHC 212046
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102026
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026
 
...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORMS...
...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 69.5W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Josephine
was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 69.5 West. Josephine
is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h).  The storm should 
turn northeastward by tomorrow with a large increase in forward 
speed.  On the forecast track, Josephine should move away from the 
United States and remain south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.  
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is expected, though Josephine is 
anticipated to remain a subtropical storm through early Thursday.  
Further strengthening is likely by late Thursday as Josephine 
becomes a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds.
 
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the
center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Gale-force winds are possible in gusts along portions of the 
northeastern United States coast through Thursday.  See products 
issued by your local National Weather Service office for more 
details.

COASTAL FLOODING:  Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is 
ongoing along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and will 
continue through the rest of the week around times of high tide. 
Please refer to products issued by your local National Weather 
Service forecast office for more information.

SURF: Large swells generated by Josephine are affecting much of the 
eastern seaboard of the United States and portions of Atlantic 
Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found 
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake