| Above: Tropical Cyclone Debbie, as seen on Sunday afternoon (local time) March 26, 2017. Image credit: NASA Worldview. |
Northeast Australia’s Queensland coast is bracing for the arrival of Tropical Cyclone Debbie, which intensified into a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds on Sunday morning. Debbie is headed west-southwest at about 4 mph, and is expected to make landfall on Tuesday morning local time (Monday evening in the U.S.) The storm has quite favorable conditions for intensification, with light wind shear and warm ocean temperatures of 29 - 30°C (84 - 86°F.) However, satellite images on Sunday morning showed that Debbie had failed to take full advantage of these favorable conditions for intensification, thanks to dry air pulled off the coast of Australia that had wrapped into the core of the storm. There is still time for Debbie to undergo a period of rapid intensification before landfall, and the storm could well be at Category 3 strength by then, as predicted by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
According to Australian hurricane expert Bruce Harper, the population of the area expected to receive the brunt of Debbie’s winds is around 15,000. The region is surrounded by flat sugar cane fields, and heavy rains from the storm will likely cause considerable agricultural damage. Debbie is a very moist storm, and a large area of torrential rain in excess of 8 inches will accompany the storm as it makes landfall, according to the 06 UTC Sunday run of the HWRF model. A maximum storm surge of about 3 meters (10 feet) and storm tide (height of the surge plus the tide) of about 4 meters (13 feet) can be expected to the left of where the center makes landfall, if Debbie intensifies to Category 3 strength.
Tropical cyclone history of the Queensland, Australia coast
According to NOAA’s historical Hurricane Tracks tool, Queensland has been hit by nine tropical cyclones of Category 3 or higher strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale since 1989. Four of these storms have hit since 2011:
Tropical Cyclone Marcia hit central Queensland near Shoalwater Bay as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds on February 20, 2015, causing $590 million in damage. No fatalities were reported.
Tropical Cyclone Nathan hit far northern Queensland as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds on March 19, 2015, causing $57 million in damage.
Tropical Cyclone Ita hit Cape Flattery, Queensland as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds on April 12, 2014, causing over $1 billion in damage to agriculture. Ita killed 40 people in the Solomon Islands while it was forming (thanks go to WU member elioe for this correction.)
Queensland suffered a devastating blow on February 3, 2011, when Tropical Cyclone Yasi made landfall in northern Queensland as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, killing 1 and causing $2.5 billion in damage (2011 dollars.) According to EM-DAT, Yasi was the most damaging tropical cyclone in Australian history.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has a nice summary of the major tropical cyclones to impact Queensland before 2011.
An early appearance of the Atlantic’s first named storm of 2017 unlikely this week
A large area of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas over waters that are near 24°C (75°F)—barely warm enough to support formation of a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. Satellite loops on Sunday morning showed that the low had little in the way of organized heavy thunderstorm activity, and with wind shear a very high 50 - 60 knots, development of this storm into a subtropical storm is unlikely. The low will head north and then northeast, passing a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda on Tuesday. According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks, the only March tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic was a Category 2 hurricane that passed through the Lesser Antilles on March 8, 1908.
