Midterm Election Roundup: How Climate and the Environment Fared

As is often the case, the midterm U.S. elections brought a mixed bag of results that pertain to climate and environmental policy. If there’s an overarching message, it’s a familiar one: voters are allergic to being taxed, but many of them support moving toward alternative energy. As more states ramp up the fraction of renewables in their electric grids, this could make a significant dent over time in the nation’s carbon footprint and its contribution to human-produced climate change throughout the world.

Carbon tax goes down in the state of Washington

A proposal for the nation’s first statewide tax on carbon was handily defeated by voters in Washington state. The plan (see PDF) would have levied a $15 fee per metric ton of carbon (about $16.54 per U.S. ton), rising over time, on companies that use or sell fossil fuels. All of the revenue would have gone into a clean-up pollution fund, with 70% allocated to clean air and clean energy investments, 25% to water and forest protection, and 5% to a healthy communities plan that would have supported fire mitigation and sea-level-rise relocation on tribal lands, among other goals.

Had the proposal passed, Washington would have apparently become the first state or national government on Earth to implement a carbon tax by referendum. California has the world’s fourth largest cap-and-trade system, which is the other major form of carbon pricing.

Several Canadian provinces have passed carbon-tax legislation—British Columbia in particular—and in October, the government of Canada approved a nationwide revenue-neutral carbon tax to begin in 2019. Canada’s tax will increase from about $20 CAD per metric ton next year to $50 CAD by 2022. A number of other countries have some form of carbon taxation, as documented by the Carbon Tax Center.

Fossil fuel companies donated heavily to campaigns against the Washington referendum as well as to opposing oil and gas restrictions in Colorado. A failed statewide proposition in Colorado would have required all oil and gas drilling on non-federal land to be set back at least 2500 feet from occupied structures as well as playgrounds and other areas deemed vulnerable. This compares to the current setback of 500 feet from homes and 1000 feet from high-occupancy buildings. A boom in drilling and fracking in recent years has extended into some communities within the fast-growing Denver-Boulder metroplex.

Figure 1. In this Aug. 16, 2018, file photo, a pump jack works in a recently-constructed residential development in Frederick, Colo. Voters in Colorado rejected a proposal to tightly restrict where new oil and gas wells can be drilled in the state. Image credit: AP Photo/David Zalubowski.

State renewable mandates

Nevada voters approved a strengthening of the state’s renewable energy mandate. The new standard calls for the state’s electric grid to consist of 50 percent renewables by 2030, up from the current 25 percent by 2025. Arizona moved in the other direction, decisively rejecting a similar proposition that would have mandated a grid with 50% renewables by 2030. Arizona’s current mandate is for 15% renewables by 2025, which is a relatively weak goal by regional standards. For example, California is mandating that its grid be 50% renewable by 2025 and 60% by 2030, with a goal of a 100% zero-carbon electrical supply (which could include nuclear power) by 2045.

Nevada voters also nixed a state ballot question that would have allowed a open and competitive market for state electricity generation. That measure drew both supporters and opponents from within the environmental community. The Sierra Club and the Natural Resources Defense Council, among other green groups, expressed concerns that unfettered markets would slow progress toward renewables from the state’s main provider, NV Energy.

Figure 2. On 140 acres of unused land at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada, 70,000 solar panels awaited activation in early 2015. NV Energy commissioned the 557-megawatt plant, which has the capacity to provide 100% of the base's electrical needs at peak periods. Image credit: USAF/Airman 1st Class Nadine Barclay.

Governors and representatives

Two western states elected new Democratic governors—both of them former U.S. representatives—who have vowed to push their electric grids toward renewable energy. In Colorado, Jared Polis pledged to work toward moving the state toward 100 percent renewable energy by 2040. As of 2016, renewables made up about 20% of Colorado net electricity generation, more than double the amount from 2010.

In New Mexico, Michelle Lujan Grisham wants the state’s grid to be 50 percent renewable energy by 2030. About 11% of New Mexico’s grid electricity in 2016 came from wind power. About half that much energy was produced from solar power, a large part of that in distributed fashion rather than on the grid.

“On one level, these results should not be surprising,” said Joe Romm (ClimateProgress) of the House and gubernatorial candidates who won while promoting clean-energy platforms. “Polling has long shown that climate action and clean energy are winning issues. One recent survey found that 71 percent of independents were more likely to support a candidate who favored taking action on climate change.”

At the same time, a number of members of the bipartisan U.S. House Climate Solutions Caucus lost their bids for reelection on Tuesday, including caucus co-founder Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.)  As summarized in ClimateProgress, the caucus is losing 3 of its 45 Democractic members (two are retiring and one is running for higher office), while almost half of the Republican caucus members—21 out of 45—will not be returning, some due to retirement and others because of election losses.

“We’re confident other Republicans will step up to lead, and the existing and potential members are invested in continuing bipartisan work on climate,” Citizens’ Climate Lobby Executive Director Mark Reynolds said in a statement. “To paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the death of the Climate Solutions Caucus are greatly exaggerated.”