A low pressure system centered about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward islands on Thursday morning was growing more organized and is likely to become the Atlantic’s next named storm by Saturday. This system was designated 95L by the National Hurricane Center on Wednesday. Bermuda is likely to be the only land area that needs to be concerned with 95L.
Satellite images on Thursday morning showed that 95L had a surface circulation that was gradually becoming better defined, and a moderate-sized area of heavy thunderstorms on the east side of the center. The system was headed north at about 10 mph, and was under high wind shear of 20 – 30 knots, which was limiting development. The 12Z Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that shear would fall to the moderate range, 10 – 20 knots, Friday through Saturday, which should allow 95L to develop into a tropical or subtropical depression. Water temperatures for 95L on Friday and Saturday are going to be on the cool side for tropical development, near 25 – 26°C (77 – 79°F), so 95L may initially be subtropical in nature.
95L has unanimous support for development from our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, UKMET, and GFS models. The system is expected to turn to the west early next week towards Bermuda, but long-range forecasts from the models suggest that 95L won’t make it that far, with the storm either dissipating or getting caught up in a trough of low pressure that will pull it northwards out to sea by the middle of next week. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 70% and 80%, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Oscar, the 15th name on the list.
We’ll have full update on Super Typhoon Yutu early this afternoon.
