Cat 4 Cilida Raging through Southwest Indian Ocean

December 21, 2018, 11:28 PM EST

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Above: Visible MODIS image of Tropical Cyclone Cilida taken on Friday afternoon, December 21, 2018. Image credit: NASA.
Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Cilida in the South Indian Ocean stormed to the brink of Category 5 strength on Friday, topping out with 150-mph winds in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 8 am EDT advisory. (Note that this advisory originally had Cilida with 155 mph winds, but that estimate was later reduced to 150 mph. Thanks go to Jasper Deng for pointing this out.) Cilida is not expected to directly impact any land areas, though Mauritius will likely experience heavy rains and 20 - 30 mph winds over the weekend as the storm passes about 150 miles to the northeast.
 

Category 4 and 5 storms in the South Indian Ocean are rare in December, which is the beginning of their tropical cyclone season. The Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season peaks in March, when ocean temperatures are at their warmest. Only one Category 5 storm has been observed in December in the South Indian Ocean—Tropical Cyclone Bruce, which topped out with 160 mph winds on December 21, 2013.

Strongest storm in the South Indian Ocean since Category 5 Marcus in March

Cilida is the strongest storm in the South Indian Ocean since March, when the first Category 5 storm of 2018, Tropical Cyclone Marcus, intensified on March 21 to a low-end Cat 5 with 160 mph winds and a central pressure of 912 mb. This pressure ranked as the tenth lowest on record for an Australian tropical cyclone. Before becoming a Cat 5, Marcus hit the northern Australia city of Darwin as a tropical storm (see radar loop here), knocking out power to over 26,000 customers and causing $75 million in damage. Marcus brought a wind gust of 81 mph (130 kph) to Darwin, which was the highest gust from a tropical cyclone measured there since Tropical Cyclone Tracy devastated the city on Christmas Day in 1974. Marcus stayed well offshore of the northwest coast of Australia after hitting Darwin, and had no other direct impacts on populated areas.
 

Since accurate satellite records began in 1990, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has catalogued 18 Category 5 storms in the South Indian Ocean—an average of approximately one Cat 5 every two years. Marcus was the first Category 5 tropical cyclone in the South Indian Ocean since Tropical Cyclone Ernie, which intensified to a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds northwest of Australia in April 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Fantala of 2016 (180 mph winds) is the strongest cyclone ever observed in the South Indian Ocean. Fantala is also the all-time intensity record holder for the entire Indian Ocean, since it tops the record holder for the North Indian Ocean, Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu of June 2007 (peak 1-minute winds of 165 mph). Note, though, that some consider Tropical Cyclone Monica of 2006 (180 mph winds) tied as the strongest Indian Ocean Basin storm on record. Definitions vary on the boundary of the Indian Ocean, though, and Monica reached peak strength north of Australia in the Arafura Sea, which is considered by several sources, including the CIA World Factbook, to be part of the western Pacific Ocean, not the Indian Ocean.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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Dr. Jeff Masters

Dr. Jeff Masters co-founded Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. in air pollution meteorology at the University of Michigan. He worked for the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990 as a flight meteorologist.

emailweatherman.masters@gmail.com

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