| Above: The strongest Atlantic hurricane of 2018, Hurricane Michael, as seen by the GOES-16 satellite at 10:45 am EDT October 10, 2018. At the time, Michael was nearing landfall in the Florida Panhandle as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. The year 2018 is an analogue year for how the 2019 season may be, according to the June 4, 2019 forecast from Colorado State University. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB. |
The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be near-average, said the hurricane forecasting team from Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued June 4. Led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, with coauthors Dr. Michael Bell and Jhordanne Jones, the CSU team is calling for an Atlantic hurricane season with 14 named storms (including Andrea, which already occurred), 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 100. This is a bump up from their April 5 forecast, which called for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80. The long-term averages for the period 1981 - 2010 were 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 92.
The CSU outlook calls for a 54% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. in 2019 (long term average is 52%), with a 32% chance for the East Coast and Florida Peninsula (long term average is 31%), and a 31% chance for the Gulf Coast (long term average is 30%). The outlooks includes a 44% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane track into the Caribbean (long term average is 42%).
The latest seasonal forecasts from TSR and NOAA, issued on May 31 and May 23, respectively, are also calling for a near-average Atlantic hurricane season. The next CSU forecast will be released July 9.
Updated seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU calls for near-normal season: 14 named storms (including Andrea which formed in May), 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Slight increase from early April outlook. Fate of #ElNino uncertain.https://t.co/BVkRA9LqyA pic.twitter.com/1tNsMJYn10
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) June 4, 2019
Analogue years
Five years with similar pre-season April and May atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as “analogue” years that the 2019 hurricane season may resemble. These years were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions during August-October, and near-average sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic:
1990 (14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane)
1991 (8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricane)
2012 (19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes)
2014 (8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes)
2018 (15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes)
The average activity for these years was 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 93—not far from the long-term average. The most notable storms during these years were Hurricane Bob of 1991, which hit Long Island, NY as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds; Hurricane Sandy of 2012, which affected New England and the Mid-Atlantic states as a Category 1 hurricane and became the third most expensive hurricane in history; Hurricane Arthur of 2014, which hit North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds; and Category 5 Hurricane Michael and Category 1 Hurricane Florence of 2018, which did over $15 billion in damage apiece to Florida and North Carolina, respectively.
91L unlikely to develop
As detailed in our Tuesday morning post, tropical disturbance 91L in the southern Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche remains disorganized and is running out of time to develop into a tropical depression as it heads northwest at 10 mph towards the Mexico/Texas border region. However, the system has the potential to be a heavy rainmaker for the coasts of Texas and Louisiana this week. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft that was scheduled to investigate 91L on Tuesday afternoon was cancelled, and no further missions into 91L are scheduled.
