Looking Ahead to 2017: What to Watch For, Weather- and Climate-Wise

By: Bob Henson, 1:51 PM GMT on December 30, 2016

Between a record-strong El Niño and catastrophic floods, fires, and drought, 2016 was a memorable year for weather and climate in North America as well as globally. What can we expect as we roll into 2017? A precise weather forecast is asking too much, but there is already a lot we can say about some key factors. Here are six developments to watch for in 2017. They’re presented in rough order of increasing confidence, followed by details on each prediction.
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El Niño

Updated: 2:40 PM GMT on December 30, 2016

Top Ten Tropical Cyclone Events of 2016 Potentially Influenced by Climate Change

By: Jeff Masters, 4:19 PM GMT on December 27, 2016

Tropical cyclones—which include all hurricanes, typhoons, tropical storms and tropical depressions—are expected to change in intensity, frequency, location, and seasonality as a result of climate change. Many of the tropical cyclones of 2016 exhibited the type of behavior we expect to see more of due to global warming. Here, then, is a “top ten” list of 2016 tropical cyclone events of the type we should expect to see more of due to global warming.

Hurricane Climate Change

Updated: 5:19 PM GMT on December 27, 2016

Nightmare on Christmas: Super Typhoon Nock-Ten Pounds the Philippines

By: Jeff Masters, 5:09 PM GMT on December 26, 2016

Super Typhoon Nock-Ten struck the Philippines on Christmas Day as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, making it the strongest landfalling typhoon on record anywhere in the Northwest Pacific so late in the year. Only two non-landfalling typhoons have been as strong as Nock-Ten so late in the year: Super Typhoon Hester, which peaked as a Category 5 storm with 185 mph winds on December 31, 1952, about 1,000 miles east of the Philippines, and Super Typhoon Susan, whi...

Hurricane

Updated: 3:52 AM GMT on December 27, 2016

Super Typhoon Nock-Ten Heads for a Christmas Day Landfall in the Philippines

By: Jeff Masters, 6:24 PM GMT on December 24, 2016

Typhoon warnings are flying in the Philippines as Super Typhoon Nock-Ten steams westwards at 8 mph towards the Philippine island of Catanduanes. Nock-Ten is expected to make landfall there on Christmas Day as a major Category 3 or 4 storm, then continue westwards, gradually weakening due to land interaction, passing very close to the capital of Manila on Luzon Island the day after Christmas as a Category 1 storm. Nock-Ten likely peaked in intensity on Saturday morni...

Hurricane

Updated: 3:50 AM GMT on December 27, 2016

A Christmas Day Typhoon Headed for the Philippines

By: Jeff Masters, 6:31 PM GMT on December 23, 2016

Celebrations of Christmas Day in the Philippines this year will have to occur amid emergency declarations as Typhoon Nock-ten puts a huge lump of coal into the stockings of residents of the main Philippine Island of Luzon. Satellite loops on Friday afternoon showed that Nock-ten was undergoing rapid intensification. A prominent eye was developing, surrounded by an intense ring of eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. With Nock-ten experiencing low wind shear o...

Hurricane

Updated: 1:41 PM GMT on December 24, 2016

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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